WEBVTT - Executive Disorder: 2026 Midterms Edition 0:00:08.320 --> 0:00:11.420 It could happen here! 0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:13.580 That's not how we open the show. 0:00:13.980 --> 0:00:18.419 Welcome to Executive Disorder, our special midterm election 2026 edition. 0:00:20.690 --> 0:00:22.670 But we're going to talk about everything that we can 0:00:22.750 --> 0:00:26.150 in the next hour and change. I'm Garrison Davis. I'm 0:00:26.210 --> 0:00:30.870 joined by Robert Evans, James Stout, Kevin Foster, and special 0:00:30.930 --> 0:00:36.269 Texas correspondent Stephen Monacelli. Welcome, everyone. Yes. 0:00:36.550 --> 0:00:39.940 Welcome back to the show, everybody. Stephen, I'm so glad 0:00:39.979 --> 0:00:42.440 we made the decision several decades ago to embed you 0:00:42.500 --> 0:00:45.300 in Texas, knowing that years later we would start a 0:00:45.320 --> 0:00:48.440 media network and need a correspondent in Texas for the 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:48.920 2026 midterm elections. 0:00:50.510 --> 0:00:52.630 The long-term planning really paid off. 0:00:53.170 --> 0:00:53.650 Yeah, yeah. 0:00:53.670 --> 0:00:55.650 We actually went and scouted you like they do with 0:00:55.770 --> 0:00:57.630 NBA players when you were a little kid. 0:00:58.170 --> 0:00:59.310 Like, yeah, this one, this one. 0:00:59.670 --> 0:01:01.490 Someone's going to take that seriously. 0:01:01.530 --> 0:01:03.390 Someone's going to take that seriously. 0:01:03.410 --> 0:01:04.580 Oh, God. 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.440 Yes, we're looking for the LeBron James of podcasting about 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:09.819 the news. 0:01:11.840 --> 0:01:16.500 We will get to Texas shortly. But similar to LeBron James, 0:01:17.380 --> 0:01:22.370 the elections this year saw A super tall blue wave, 0:01:22.790 --> 0:01:26.390 something that they are calling a blue tsunami. 0:01:26.750 --> 0:01:27.840 Blue-nami, come on. 0:01:28.140 --> 0:01:28.760 A blue-nami. 0:01:29.260 --> 0:01:36.220 Yeah. All right, guys. All right. So, Democrats have completely 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:38.390 dominated in the midterm elections. 0:01:38.670 --> 0:01:39.250 They sure did. 0:01:39.610 --> 0:01:45.460 Outpacing the polling in many cases, outpacing most expectations. They 0:01:45.500 --> 0:01:49.640 are projected to win 258 seats in the House, at least, 0:01:50.220 --> 0:01:54.470 possibly a few more. Jesus. At the very least, an 0:01:54.490 --> 0:01:58.230 81-seat majority, the largest majority either party has had since 1992. 0:01:58.230 --> 0:01:59.500 Wow. 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:00.440 Fuck me. 0:02:00.680 --> 0:02:04.540 It's an incredible victory. Unfortunately, we'll have to kind of 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:06.640 blaze through some of the House results because the Senate 0:02:06.660 --> 0:02:11.030 results are... Yeah, super, super important as well. But obviously 0:02:11.050 --> 0:02:12.549 the House race was kind of in the shadow of 0:02:12.590 --> 0:02:17.560 this redistricting effort done by Republicans and some Democrats. The 0:02:17.580 --> 0:02:20.399 GOP wanted to flip about 15 House seats through redistricting. 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:24.859 And how many did they flip? Zero, zero seats. 0:02:25.630 --> 0:02:29.410 It's stunning. Now, Garrison, is zero a large number? 0:02:29.770 --> 0:02:32.299 No, no. It's actually one of the smaller numbers. 0:02:32.860 --> 0:02:34.200 Really? Oh, this is interesting. 0:02:34.260 --> 0:02:35.960 Okay, thank you. Thank you for that context. 0:02:36.300 --> 0:02:39.280 In fact, one could argue we've gotten into negative number 0:02:39.340 --> 0:02:42.559 territory because Democrats did not just hold on to those 0:02:42.620 --> 0:02:46.910 gerrymandered seats. They went on to flip at least 35 more. 0:02:46.930 --> 0:02:48.790 Oh, my God. Good God. 0:02:48.850 --> 0:02:53.370 Winning all 28 battleground districts identified by NBC. Wow. At 0:02:53.410 --> 0:02:56.750 least 11 flips in the New York Times most competitive districts. 0:02:56.790 --> 0:02:58.850 And that's an undercount because the New York Times isn't 0:02:58.889 --> 0:03:04.080 counting any redistricted district. And then another 10 flips in 0:03:04.100 --> 0:03:08.380 districts that Republicans expected to win. And then another nine 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:12.370 flips in districts Republicans expected to win easily. A lot 0:03:12.380 --> 0:03:16.730 of those in North Carolina, which Democrats just obliterated. 0:03:16.750 --> 0:03:16.820 Oof. 0:03:17.370 --> 0:03:20.190 The Republican Party in North Carolina. It's a bloodbath. 0:03:20.270 --> 0:03:22.510 North Blair-alina, as they call it now. 0:03:22.530 --> 0:03:25.590 Yeah, that's right. Actually, it was just announced a few 0:03:25.610 --> 0:03:27.970 hours ago. That's what they're changing the state's name to. 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:35.500 Yeah, the Carolinas haven't gotten hit this hard since the 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:40.880 Civil War. It's crazy stuff. 0:03:40.900 --> 0:03:44.260 There's so many house races we could focus on. I 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:48.380 do want to highlight it is expected. that Lauren Boebert 0:03:48.670 --> 0:03:52.790 will no longer be a congressperson come January. 0:03:53.070 --> 0:03:57.790 Fuck yeah. God, that's... That's just. 0:03:58.150 --> 0:04:02.550 She is currently trailing by 6,000 votes. They're still counting, but. 0:04:02.570 --> 0:04:03.250 Hearing you. 0:04:03.150 --> 0:04:06.730 Say that is like the auditory equivalent of biting into 0:04:06.770 --> 0:04:09.060 a perfectly cooked piece of steak. 0:04:09.130 --> 0:04:12.240 It's just glorious. Oh, God, that feels good. 0:04:13.020 --> 0:04:15.600 The other thing I want to mention... because we've reported 0:04:15.940 --> 0:04:18.580 on this on Executive Disorder this past year, Max Miller, 0:04:18.740 --> 0:04:24.860 the Republican congressman accused of some very horrific familial abuse 0:04:24.900 --> 0:04:28.050 that was covered up by the Republican Party in general. 0:04:28.270 --> 0:04:29.270 Real monster shit. 0:04:29.450 --> 0:04:33.350 He has lost by almost 10 points. He is out. 0:04:33.370 --> 0:04:37.520 Brian Poindexter is in. That's in Ohio. This was a 0:04:37.570 --> 0:04:41.260 race that Miller was expected to win, and he did not. 0:04:42.810 --> 0:04:48.300 Other big Trump House districts, we have Indiana 5, Kentucky 6, 0:04:48.300 --> 0:04:53.140 North Carolina 6, and Ohio 10, which Democrats won. These 0:04:53.180 --> 0:04:57.080 are like 20, 30 point shifts away from Trump's performance 0:04:57.100 --> 0:04:57.200 in 2024. 0:04:57.180 --> 0:04:58.880 Christ almighty. 0:04:58.990 --> 0:05:00.270 It's pretty incredible. Yeah. 0:05:00.930 --> 0:05:01.969 I mean, in general. 0:05:02.850 --> 0:05:05.610 I expected the House to flip. Yes. 0:05:05.830 --> 0:05:09.040 And I think most people did and have like somewhere 0:05:09.060 --> 0:05:11.960 between a slim and like a solid lead for the Dems. 0:05:12.279 --> 0:05:14.500 And the Senate was kind of like there's a decent 0:05:14.540 --> 0:05:16.220 chance it would flip, but it was going to. I 0:05:16.260 --> 0:05:20.260 don't think anyone really thought this would happen. Even when 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:22.780 the polls were showing it, I couldn't... Yeah. It's been 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:25.280 so hard to trust them, right? Like, the fact that 0:05:25.300 --> 0:05:29.740 they undercounted the dims is certainly not... Like, I'm incredibly happy. 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:30.200 I just. 0:05:30.339 --> 0:05:33.270 I couldn't let myself believe it was going to go 0:05:33.350 --> 0:05:36.310 this well. And I'm still kind of in shock that 0:05:36.370 --> 0:05:36.730 it did. 0:05:36.850 --> 0:05:38.170 Like, this is nuts. 0:05:39.310 --> 0:05:40.599 I felt like I didn't know what to do with 0:05:40.650 --> 0:05:43.440 myself last night. I'm so used to everything just being bad. 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.800 Yeah. Right. Like I was remembering last election. 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:47.200 Yeah. 0:05:47.740 --> 0:05:50.779 I don't know how to feel good, I guess, but. 0:05:51.580 --> 0:05:53.740 Yeah, I mean, there's obviously there's bad news as we'll 0:05:53.779 --> 0:05:56.500 talk about too, but just, I don't know. I felt 0:05:56.540 --> 0:05:58.279 like the need to take a second on air to 0:05:58.300 --> 0:06:00.020 go like, yeah, holy shit. 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:03.240 Yeah. That went pretty well. 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:03.500 Yeah. 0:06:03.540 --> 0:06:05.880 We can talk about this more in the voter trends section, 0:06:06.100 --> 0:06:09.410 like specifically, but I mean, yeah, this is like, A 0:06:09.510 --> 0:06:14.890 total reversal of the 2024 election. Yeah. On almost every metric. Now, 0:06:15.470 --> 0:06:18.460 as Robert mentioned, Democrats were expected to win the House, 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:22.340 not by this much. Not like this, but yeah. The 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:24.860 tally is still being counted. So when I say they're 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:28.900 expected to get around 258, 260, not all those have 0:06:28.940 --> 0:06:32.080 been confirmed yet, but that is the NBC projection, which 0:06:32.100 --> 0:06:35.050 they're projecting more confidently than the New York Times, which 0:06:35.070 --> 0:06:36.770 is a bit more conservative in their projections. Yeah. 0:06:37.930 --> 0:06:40.190 They've done well enough that like the outstanding, obviously the 0:06:40.250 --> 0:06:42.650 races that aren't called yet matter, but none of them 0:06:42.710 --> 0:06:45.469 matter in the sense of determining what the Dems will 0:06:45.510 --> 0:06:48.390 be able to do or not, probably. Like the margins 0:06:48.470 --> 0:06:50.810 are so big that these like last couple of seats 0:06:51.410 --> 0:06:55.210 won't shift. Obviously it matters, but won't shift the overall battle. 0:06:55.770 --> 0:06:55.940 Yeah. 0:06:56.650 --> 0:06:57.210 Which is crazy. 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:00.500 The big question was what was going to happen with 0:07:00.540 --> 0:07:03.979 the Senate. Yeah. Dems needed to net four to five seats, 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:07.600 getting to like 51, 52 seats. considering, you know, J.D. 0:07:07.680 --> 0:07:11.360 Vance and John Fetterman, you know, to counteract their votes. 0:07:11.380 --> 0:07:12.000 Fetterman. 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.240 So they would have to claw back a fair number 0:07:14.280 --> 0:07:20.020 of seats. As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats have secured 54 seats. 0:07:20.020 --> 0:07:24.590 53, right, with Fetterman being not a Democrat. 0:07:25.370 --> 0:07:25.830 Correct. 0:07:25.890 --> 0:07:28.850 Yeah, Fetterman's ex-account has gone suspiciously quiet this morning. 0:07:29.810 --> 0:07:31.340 Tragic, tragic. He's in mourning. 0:07:31.380 --> 0:07:32.420 A lot of his friends lost. 0:07:32.900 --> 0:07:37.560 And Democrats could win upwards of 56 seats. Jesus Christ. 0:07:37.580 --> 0:07:41.330 Between Alaska and the surprise possible Flip of the Night Mississippi, 0:07:41.350 --> 0:07:42.490 which we'll get to in a sec. 0:07:42.950 --> 0:07:43.470 Yeah, yeah. 0:07:43.810 --> 0:07:47.350 Between like seven, eight or nine flips. It's incredible. 0:07:47.630 --> 0:07:48.350 Yeah, it's bonkers. 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.920 I've not seen a Senate race like this ever. 0:07:51.940 --> 0:07:53.200 No, no, no. 0:07:54.040 --> 0:07:56.900 It's more like I remember, I'm sure some of us 0:07:56.920 --> 0:08:01.230 who are older remember 2008, right? And the Obama election. 0:08:01.230 --> 0:08:05.690 2008 and 98 too, I think, was another shellacking for 0:08:05.710 --> 0:08:06.030 the right. 0:08:06.050 --> 0:08:08.110 But yeah, evidently nothing to this extent. 0:08:08.310 --> 0:08:08.770 No. 0:08:09.730 --> 0:08:12.460 This is remarkable. And the incumbent party tends to do 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:14.880 worse in midterms, yeah, but not to this extent. 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:19.350 Yeah. No, getting possibly 56 Senate seats. 0:08:19.710 --> 0:08:23.570 This isn't doing worse. This is like end of days. Yeah, 0:08:24.070 --> 0:08:26.530 extinction level event, to quote Ron DeSantis. 0:08:26.750 --> 0:08:30.740 As Ron DeSantis says, an extinction level event for the 0:08:30.780 --> 0:08:31.680 Republican Party. 0:08:31.700 --> 0:08:33.620 Yeah, thank God. 0:08:35.580 --> 0:08:38.880 Let's talk about Michigan, one of the big races of 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:41.620 the night, Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers. This was an 0:08:41.750 --> 0:08:46.480 open seat previously held by a Democrat. And El-Sayed... held 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:51.010 this seat for the Democrats. He won 53 to Rogers 45, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:55.860 a seven point win. Nice. The entire GOP apparatus and frankly, 0:08:56.420 --> 0:08:59.760 a big portion of the Democratic establishment mobilized against El-Sayed 0:09:00.059 --> 0:09:03.719 hard on like a national level. He became this sort 0:09:03.740 --> 0:09:06.570 of like poster child of this whole election cycle. The 0:09:06.610 --> 0:09:09.690 Republicans hoping that painting him as an extremist by doing that, 0:09:09.730 --> 0:09:12.970 his candidacy could like negatively affect Democrats and races all 0:09:13.010 --> 0:09:16.580 across the country. And that did not happen at all. 0:09:16.600 --> 0:09:18.000 Nope. 0:09:18.940 --> 0:09:20.660 It's the same kind of deal with like, if we 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:24.100 really focus on Hassan Piker, that'll scare everybody away from 0:09:24.140 --> 0:09:25.240 voting for the Democrats. 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:26.880 Didn't work. Didn't seem to work. 0:09:26.980 --> 0:09:29.490 And if you get a look at the voter demographic numbers, 0:09:30.010 --> 0:09:31.809 seemed like the opposite may have happened. 0:09:31.990 --> 0:09:32.250 Right. 0:09:32.870 --> 0:09:36.689 I would be remiss to mention that Haley Stevens decided 0:09:36.750 --> 0:09:40.750 to endorse the quote unquote nightmare, her words, Mike Rogers, 0:09:41.410 --> 0:09:44.880 like two or three days before the election because of 0:09:45.340 --> 0:09:49.540 El-Sayed's anti-Israel stances and essentially threw her career away for, 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:52.400 I guess, probably some AIPAC money. I was going to 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:54.350 say nothing, but... What's she going to do with it? 0:09:54.610 --> 0:09:55.090 But yeah. 0:09:56.050 --> 0:09:59.320 She's like self-immolated as a career politician. Buy the flight 0:09:59.340 --> 0:10:01.040 to Israel. Yeah, right. 0:10:01.340 --> 0:10:03.800 That does seem like kind of her only option. 0:10:04.140 --> 0:10:05.180 Join Netanyahu. 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:06.839 She's been kicked out of the Democratic Party. 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:09.750 Well, Netanyahu might not be in power all that much longer, 0:10:09.790 --> 0:10:11.650 depending on how things go over there. She doesn't have 0:10:11.670 --> 0:10:14.130 to join him in Parliament. Join him in the International 0:10:14.150 --> 0:10:15.270 Criminal Court if she wants to. 0:10:15.429 --> 0:10:15.630 Sure. 0:10:15.809 --> 0:10:16.650 She might build a win. 0:10:16.950 --> 0:10:20.900 Yeah. Moving on to Maine, another... race with a lot 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:25.900 of focus. Troy Jackson versus Susan Collins, who's held this 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:30.730 seat for 200 years. That can't be right. 0:10:30.809 --> 0:10:33.050 Since 1776. Yeah, actually. 0:10:33.070 --> 0:10:36.790 I mean, she very famously stood with Washington at Yorktown. 0:10:36.809 --> 0:10:40.620 So have a little bit of respect. She's a veteran 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:42.980 we're talking about. Signed the Declaration of Independence, Garrison. 0:10:43.520 --> 0:10:46.320 And come election night, union logger and former Maine Senate 0:10:46.340 --> 0:10:50.900 President Troy Jackson unseated. Longtime Republican Senator Susan Collins, who 0:10:50.940 --> 0:10:53.240 defied the polls in 2020 when she held onto her 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:57.440 seat that year. Jackson has won by about eight points, 0:10:57.900 --> 0:11:01.469 close to Kamala's margins against Trump. This is a huge 0:11:01.510 --> 0:11:05.790 win for labor and like the Bernie wing of the Democrats. And, 0:11:05.830 --> 0:11:08.030 you know, just getting Collins out of there is just 0:11:08.090 --> 0:11:08.590 feels good. 0:11:09.010 --> 0:11:11.170 Feels good, man. 0:11:11.190 --> 0:11:15.030 Yeah. One of the scenes that Democrats expected to flip 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.250 was in North Carolina with Roy Cooper and the man 0:11:18.290 --> 0:11:20.860 who has never lost an election, going up against Mike 0:11:20.940 --> 0:11:26.880 Watley for a previously Republican-held seat. And former Governor Cooper 0:11:26.940 --> 0:11:32.260 did flip this, winning 60-40. Like I said, just North Carolina, 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:37.590 total bloodbath. Trump won this by three. And down-ballot races, 0:11:37.710 --> 0:11:42.150 the House races, state legislature, just really, in North Carolina, 0:11:42.210 --> 0:11:46.160 it's the bluest you've ever seen. What's much more surprising... 0:11:46.510 --> 0:11:50.670 is the neighbor down south, South Carolina, with Annie Andrews 0:11:50.820 --> 0:11:54.220 against Darlene Graham, the Republican incumbent. 0:11:54.500 --> 0:11:54.760 Yes. 0:11:55.300 --> 0:11:58.180 Democrat Annie Andrews lost a U.S. House race to Nancy 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:04.520 Mace in 2022. But last night, she beat short-term Republican 0:12:04.540 --> 0:12:07.319 Senator Darlene Graham, flipping the seat formerly held by late 0:12:07.380 --> 0:12:10.730 queer icon Lindsey Graham, who served as a senator since 2003. 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:16.730 In 2020, he won by 10 points. Trump won the 0:12:16.750 --> 0:12:21.330 state by 18 points in 2024. Andrews won by four. 0:12:22.110 --> 0:12:24.910 So that's what, like a 22 point swing from 24 0:12:24.910 --> 0:12:25.309 to 26? 0:12:25.309 --> 0:12:25.709 Yeah. 0:12:25.950 --> 0:12:32.760 Annie Andrews is like in between moderate and progressive. She 0:12:32.800 --> 0:12:35.179 ran on like a public health care option, right? Not 0:12:35.220 --> 0:12:39.270 Medicare for all, but a public option. Abortion rights, education funding, 0:12:39.370 --> 0:12:42.970 banning corporate PAC money. cracking down on congressional stock trading, 0:12:43.170 --> 0:12:46.750 term limits, AI regulation, border security, and path to citizenship 0:12:46.830 --> 0:12:47.850 while keeping families together. 0:12:47.870 --> 0:12:51.410 Is she one of the Dignidad Act people? 0:12:51.929 --> 0:12:53.040 I don't know what that is. 0:12:53.059 --> 0:12:56.199 Okay, I don't want to divert the episode too much. 0:12:56.300 --> 0:12:58.640 It is a thing that like Blue Dog Dems and 0:12:58.660 --> 0:13:02.020 some Republicans, including Florida Republicans, have been trying to introduce 0:13:02.059 --> 0:13:05.140 for a long time that would effectively create an underclass 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:07.970 of people who had no pathway to citizenship and had 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:10.830 a right to remain. And they tend to couple this 0:13:10.850 --> 0:13:15.569 with border security. It's like a faux amnesty, almost. Okay, okay. 0:13:16.370 --> 0:13:20.910 Her exact platform does not go into that level of specificity. Okay. 0:13:21.309 --> 0:13:24.809 I will say, coupling path to citizenship with border security 0:13:24.830 --> 0:13:27.550 has been one of the most common talking points across 0:13:27.590 --> 0:13:32.410 these swing states. Yeah. What exactly that means once they're 0:13:32.460 --> 0:13:34.980 in office is kind of a black box. Yeah. 0:13:35.220 --> 0:13:38.320 Yeah, we have failed to reform our immigration policy for 0:13:38.380 --> 0:13:40.540 decades and decades and decades, which is how we got 0:13:40.570 --> 0:13:43.730 to this fucked up situation that we're in. So like, yeah, 0:13:43.750 --> 0:13:45.569 we're going to cross that bridge when we come to it. Obviously, 0:13:45.950 --> 0:13:47.290 I will report on it when it happens. 0:13:47.990 --> 0:13:51.990 Another thing to cross, hopefully sooner than later, is the 0:13:52.050 --> 0:13:54.760 trans issue and the way that's been weaponized in these 0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:57.719 past few elections. And last month, Annie Andrews did release 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:01.960 an ad directly opposing, quote, biological men in women's sports and, quote, 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:05.500 gender surgery for minors. in response to a swath of 0:14:05.540 --> 0:14:09.670 attack ads against her. This ad is not good. This 0:14:09.710 --> 0:14:12.050 is bad. This is bad. And this is handled much 0:14:12.130 --> 0:14:17.130 worse than other candidates handled this, like Sherrod Brown, who 0:14:17.210 --> 0:14:21.290 also faced a wave of ads attacking him and the 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.200 Democrats for the support of trans people. And he released 0:14:24.220 --> 0:14:27.960 an ad calling the Republicans pedophiles. That was his response. 0:14:28.440 --> 0:14:28.760 Oh, yeah. 0:14:29.540 --> 0:14:32.620 Instead of throwing trans people under the bus... And Sherrod 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:37.420 Brown won. He beat incumbent Republican Senator John Husted, who 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:41.900 was occupying Vance's seat in Ohio. Sherrod Brown's a former senator, 0:14:42.060 --> 0:14:46.280 a progressive populist. Brown won by about five points, over 0:14:46.280 --> 0:14:50.880 200,000 votes. In 2022, Vance won by six points. Trump 0:14:50.900 --> 0:14:54.420 won Ohio by 11. Sherrod Brown, I think, handled this 0:14:55.110 --> 0:14:57.850 as well as any, better than any other kind of 0:14:57.910 --> 0:15:01.590 swing state Democrat. Much better than Josh Turek, who handled 0:15:01.610 --> 0:15:04.630 this the worst, the most kind of anti-trans one of 0:15:04.670 --> 0:15:09.310 these swing state Democrats. In Iowa, Josh Turek beat Ashley 0:15:09.330 --> 0:15:13.930 Hinson in an open seat held by Republicans. Turek won 0:15:13.950 --> 0:15:18.250 by five points. Trump won the state by three points. Remember, 0:15:18.290 --> 0:15:23.270 there was that late polling with the infamous Seltzer poll 0:15:23.310 --> 0:15:28.890 that put Kamala ahead in the 2024 election. Seltzer wasn't wrong. 0:15:28.930 --> 0:15:31.989 She was early. She was two years early. That's the 0:15:32.030 --> 0:15:36.550 election Twitter joke. Because Iowa, not as much as North Carolina, 0:15:36.670 --> 0:15:39.910 but did shift blue and shifted blue in house races 0:15:39.970 --> 0:15:43.250 and special elections these past two years. But Josh Turek, 0:15:43.550 --> 0:15:47.520 the new senator, is definitely more of a moderate. He's 0:15:47.620 --> 0:15:50.020 a self-proclaimed, quote, prairie populist. 0:15:50.520 --> 0:15:51.380 Whatever, man. 0:15:51.900 --> 0:15:54.130 While campaigning, he moved the farthest to the right on 0:15:54.210 --> 0:15:57.230 trans issues. He definitely bought the hardest into this kind 0:15:57.270 --> 0:15:58.710 of gender war stuff. 0:15:59.950 --> 0:16:02.130 Prairie populist? What the hell? 0:16:03.190 --> 0:16:10.270 Populism for agricultural workers, small businesses, small farms. I hate 0:16:10.450 --> 0:16:14.470 prairie populist because he is a moderate. A lot of 0:16:14.490 --> 0:16:18.980 these guys are running on affordability populist-esque kind of messaging 0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:21.320 because that's really what has shown to be successful. 0:16:21.780 --> 0:16:26.060 Mary Peltola had a pretty anti-trans ad towards the end 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:26.880 of her campaign. 0:16:27.720 --> 0:16:29.780 She is also one of the more moderate ones. 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:30.200 Yes. 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:31.760 This is in Alaska. 0:16:31.820 --> 0:16:32.520 This is Alaska. 0:16:32.660 --> 0:16:32.800 Yeah. 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:35.810 Who definitely ran as a kind of, I would say 0:16:35.850 --> 0:16:39.990 probably the most conservative out of all of the swing 0:16:40.050 --> 0:16:44.150 state Democratic senators in Alaska. Just like in general, like 0:16:44.190 --> 0:16:46.550 in general, the most conservative out of all of these 0:16:46.590 --> 0:16:47.430 Democratic candidates. 0:16:47.790 --> 0:16:50.270 Like Alaska will always be different, right? Like she's one 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:53.490 of the... Yeah, a few indigenous women who was like 0:16:53.570 --> 0:16:55.970 running for Senate and she ran some stuff on like 0:16:56.480 --> 0:17:00.100 fishing and stuff like that, which would be more radical. 0:17:00.520 --> 0:17:03.720 Fish, family and faith, I think, were like her main 0:17:03.740 --> 0:17:05.540 campaign slogan. 0:17:07.859 --> 0:17:12.949 Man, drop the last two, and I agree. I'm on board. Fish. 0:17:12.970 --> 0:17:13.450 Just fish. 0:17:13.550 --> 0:17:14.790 Just fish, yeah. 0:17:14.990 --> 0:17:17.150 We've spoken about this on this podcast before, but we, 0:17:17.470 --> 0:17:19.810 as always on Behind the Bastard, someone holding a fish, 0:17:20.670 --> 0:17:23.920 you got to support them. But yeah, it'll be a 0:17:23.910 --> 0:17:25.700 long time. It takes a long time for us to 0:17:25.740 --> 0:17:27.700 get the votes in Alaska, so it'll be a while 0:17:27.740 --> 0:17:28.699 before we know about that one. 0:17:29.500 --> 0:17:33.379 Correct. So we know South Carolina, Iowa, Ohio. These are 0:17:33.420 --> 0:17:37.290 all flips. Yeah. Alaska- Could be a flip in the 0:17:37.350 --> 0:17:40.010 next day, few days. Right. 0:17:40.510 --> 0:17:40.770 Uh-huh. 0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:45.679 Peltola's right now about like 60 votes ahead with 77% 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:46.540 of the vote in. 0:17:46.600 --> 0:17:47.100 Jesus Christ. 0:17:47.119 --> 0:17:48.760 She's expected to gain. 0:17:48.780 --> 0:17:49.619 Yeah. 0:17:49.859 --> 0:17:55.240 Gain in her lead, but she's sitting at 48.2. So 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:58.659 depending on how that goes, this might result in a 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:02.609 ranked choice instant runoff. Yeah, yeah. And I've not looked into... 0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:06.000 This race specifically and the opinions that I've seen from 0:18:06.040 --> 0:18:09.460 my election people have kind of gone either way of 0:18:09.540 --> 0:18:14.020 whether that runoff would benefit her or hurt her. This 0:18:14.080 --> 0:18:17.180 is the race with the two Dan Sullivans, the Republican 0:18:17.220 --> 0:18:24.929 incumbent senator, Dan Sullivan, Daniel Sullivan Jr., the non-senator, who 0:18:24.970 --> 0:18:29.260 did receive not... like totally insignificant part of the vote. 0:18:29.300 --> 0:18:31.020 And based on how close this race is, like I said, 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:32.100 like 70 vote difference. 0:18:32.380 --> 0:18:34.800 Yeah. I feel like if I had been in Alaska, 0:18:34.900 --> 0:18:37.430 I might've just like, I've no idea about Dan Sullivan Jr. 0:18:37.430 --> 0:18:39.970 's policies to be clear. But like when you're presented 0:18:40.010 --> 0:18:43.050 with someone like either the Republican candidate or the Democrat 0:18:43.090 --> 0:18:46.670 candidate doing transphobic bullshit, like maybe you're just having a 0:18:46.690 --> 0:18:49.930 laugh of voting for Dan Sullivan Jr., Like an active abstention. 0:18:50.030 --> 0:18:53.410 I think that's more likely than people who mistook him 0:18:53.930 --> 0:18:56.609 for being the Republican. The idea of people voting for 0:18:56.630 --> 0:18:59.090 him as a sort of joke or protest candidate is 0:18:59.130 --> 0:19:01.710 certainly possible. So that's part of sort of these ranked 0:19:01.730 --> 0:19:05.310 choice calculations. If Paltola is ranked second on some of 0:19:05.350 --> 0:19:09.570 those Sullivan Jr. ballots, that'll change the game as opposed 0:19:09.590 --> 0:19:13.260 to assuming... that all the Sullivan Jr. votes in ranked 0:19:13.300 --> 0:19:15.640 choice will go towards Senator Sullivan. 0:19:15.859 --> 0:19:16.679 Right, yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:19:16.700 --> 0:19:18.350 And that's why it's hard to predict exactly what will 0:19:18.369 --> 0:19:19.590 happen with this race. 0:19:20.170 --> 0:19:23.290 Yeah, ranked choices is, well, it offers some benefits, but 0:19:23.310 --> 0:19:25.169 just like it can sometimes take a little bit longer. 0:19:25.190 --> 0:19:29.929 I will say, I think it's extraordinarily condescending to suggest 0:19:29.990 --> 0:19:33.040 that people in Alaska don't understand what incumbent means. 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:33.580 Yes. 0:19:33.619 --> 0:19:37.420 Like, it's just a fucking nothing burger. Like, it just, 0:19:37.520 --> 0:19:41.260 I don't know, I find it incredibly, like, snooty and 0:19:41.300 --> 0:19:43.340 condescending to suggest that people are that fucking dumb. 0:19:44.300 --> 0:19:46.830 The one other race that we don't quite know the 0:19:46.850 --> 0:19:50.139 result yet and is possibly the most shocking result of 0:19:50.160 --> 0:19:53.080 the entire night is in Mississippi, which might somehow become 0:19:53.100 --> 0:19:59.200 Mississippi with Scott Column against Sidney Hyde-Smith, the Republican incumbent. 0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:04.460 Right now, this race is tied at 48.9 with Democratic 0:20:04.500 --> 0:20:08.860 candidate Scott Column up less than 100 votes. with about 0:20:08.859 --> 0:20:14.660 44,000 votes to be expected still to come in. And 0:20:14.790 --> 0:20:16.810 these are going to be mostly coming in from areas 0:20:16.930 --> 0:20:21.369 where the Democrat column has performed well. But a lot 0:20:21.390 --> 0:20:23.210 of these are going to be mail-in and provisional ballots, 0:20:23.450 --> 0:20:25.790 which can be counted up to five days after the election. 0:20:25.850 --> 0:20:27.610 So we probably won't know the results of this till 0:20:27.630 --> 0:20:31.409 like Saturday. This is super shocking. This deserves its own 0:20:31.450 --> 0:20:35.200 kind of deep dive. I did see one of Colum's 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:39.820 ads circulating, which targets cost of living and affordability. The 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.669 ad is this clip of Sidney Hyde-Smith being asked on 0:20:43.710 --> 0:20:47.330 a news show what people should do about the price 0:20:47.530 --> 0:20:51.140 of beef getting so expensive. And she said that people should, quote, 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:57.790 pick another protein. And this ad just totally skewered, skewered 0:20:57.810 --> 0:21:02.350 her over this insane, like, elitist, like, response. 0:21:02.670 --> 0:21:06.210 Yeah, that's a let them eat cake for half of America. 0:21:06.650 --> 0:21:09.170 And the crux of the ad was all these, like, 0:21:09.190 --> 0:21:13.580 you know, actors playing constituents saying, pick another protein. No, 0:21:13.980 --> 0:21:17.280