1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the low Berg Business app, or listen 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,119 Speaker 2: It was a pretty strong jobs report today. I'm not 6 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,480 Speaker 2: necessarily sure we can characterize this one as a blowout, 7 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:21,919 Speaker 2: but still an upside surprise on the non farm payrolls 8 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:25,280 Speaker 2: figure and on wages, and a downside surprise on unemployment, 9 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,720 Speaker 2: which held at three point seven percent. And of course, 10 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: the low unemployment rate holding below four percent for a 11 00:00:30,280 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: twenty third consecutive month is something that President Biden has 12 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: touted repeatedly and touted once again today. He actually put 13 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: out a statement that said, quote, this report confirms that 14 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty three was a great year for the American worker. 15 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 2: But if it was a great year for the American 16 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:48,440 Speaker 2: worker and potentially a great report for the president, was 17 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 2: it the same for the Federal Reserve or for markets 18 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: that are betting that the Fed is going to be 19 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 2: cutting rates in the not so distant future. Let's get 20 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: to take on that now. And pleased to say, barat 21 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,920 Speaker 2: Ramamurti is joining me. He is now Senior Advisor for 22 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 2: Economic Strategy at the American Economic Liberties Project, but he's 23 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:08,279 Speaker 2: also former Deputy Director of the National Economic Council. Barat, 24 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 2: thanks so much for being here. Do you still look 25 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 2: at this labor market and see an economy in need 26 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: of rate cuts? 27 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: Well, I think, as you described it, it was a solid, 28 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 3: not spectacular jobs report. I think it's important always to 29 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,839 Speaker 3: look at the revisions in addition to what the report 30 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 3: said for the last month, and if you look at 31 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 3: the downward revisions over the past couple of months, I 32 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 3: look at the three month trend what you have as 33 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 3: solid but not spectacular numbers, and I think again that 34 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 3: is broadly speaking, what you would expect to see at 35 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 3: this stage of the cycle. There's relatively little sign of 36 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 3: weakness in the labor market, and while inflation is clearly 37 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 3: trending downwards, it's not at target yet. And for those reasons, 38 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 3: I am somewhat skeptical that the FED is going to 39 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 3: cut starting in March. I know that that's what the 40 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 3: expectations are. I'm a little bit more skeptical of that now. 41 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 3: I think that they should because I think it's good 42 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 3: to be proactive on this front. But I'm skeptical that 43 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,120 Speaker 3: they will. 44 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm not sure that many market participants, at least 45 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 2: today necessarily join you in that view. We have seen 46 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 2: some pulling back of expectations really since the FED release 47 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: minutes earlier this week that indicate maybe they aren't thinking 48 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 2: hikes or cuts rather are coming imminently. And yet that 49 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 2: does seem to be where the market is for the 50 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: American voter, for the American worker. Is it more optimal 51 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 2: to have this continued strength in the labor market if 52 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: it means interest rates stay high, or is it actually 53 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 2: better to see some of that weakness coming through but 54 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,079 Speaker 2: that also brings lower borrowing costs with it. 55 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's interesting question. I think that people underrate the 56 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,520 Speaker 3: importance of having a strong job market. People think of 57 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 3: it as well. Maybe a couple million additional people are unemployed, 58 00:02:51,440 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 3: but everybody else is basically the same. That's not really 59 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,360 Speaker 3: true when you have additional slack in the labor market 60 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 3: that affects people up and down the income spectrum. When 61 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 3: there's a tighter labor market, companies have to compete harder 62 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 3: to make sure that they retain workers and that they 63 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 3: attract workers. That creates upward pressure on wages across the 64 00:03:07,000 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 3: income spectrum, and so I think everyone benefits from a 65 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 3: tighter labor market. Of course, reduction in interest rates would 66 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,120 Speaker 3: lead to improvements and things like housing affordability and the 67 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 3: cost of credit. I think it really affects people different 68 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 3: people in the income spectrum differently. I think for folks 69 00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 3: who are on the market for housing, for folks who 70 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 3: are looking for credit, the lower rates could mean some 71 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 3: amount of increasing affordability. But I think really at the 72 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 3: end of the day, we shouldn't be rooting for an 73 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 3: increase in the unemployment rate. It really is extraordinarily valuable 74 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 3: to have the kind of tight labor market that we've 75 00:03:42,720 --> 00:03:45,160 Speaker 3: had for the last almost two years at this point. 76 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 2: Well, and something that has kept that labor market tight 77 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: is participation that was lower. And I wonder what you 78 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 2: make of the participation figures today fell to sixty two 79 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: and a half percent. That's the lowest level we've seen 80 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 2: in almost a year. 81 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 3: Is that concerning, Yeah, a little bit. I think that 82 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 3: the participation figures can always be a little bit noisy. 83 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 3: It's always good to look at longer term trends. When 84 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 3: I was in the White House, we tend to look 85 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 3: at three month and six month averages rather than month 86 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 3: to month. I would say that it's a blinking yellow 87 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 3: light at this point. I'm not ready to declare that 88 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 3: there's some sort of clearly negative trend happening yet, but 89 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 3: you're right. Ultimately, what you want to see, and what 90 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 3: we have seen over the course of this recovery is 91 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,840 Speaker 3: that the prospect of good jobs has attracted a lot 92 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 3: of people off the sidelines and into the labor force, 93 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 3: and that increase in labor supply has been a helpful 94 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,239 Speaker 3: element of bringing inflation down in a very healthy way. 95 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 3: And so you don't want to see that trend reverse. 96 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 3: I'm not ready to declare that that trend is reversing yet, 97 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 3: but it is something to keep an eye on as 98 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 3: we go into future jobs reports. 99 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 2: Okay, so let's talk about the trend in inflation. How 100 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 2: much do you think the Red Sea and what's happening 101 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 2: there are the disruptions to transport, the elongating of these 102 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,479 Speaker 2: vessels journeys around the coast of Africa, higher freight costs 103 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 2: as a result, maybe even higher fuel prices, depending on 104 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 2: actually what happens in the Middle East. How great a 105 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 2: risk is that to the inflation story. 106 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 3: It's certainly a risk. I mean, look during the pandemic 107 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 3: and then the aftermath of the pandemic, we saw how 108 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 3: exactly these types of supply side disruptions can contribute to 109 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 3: rather sharp increases and inflation. Or during the pandemic we 110 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 3: saw in some cases a ten x increase in the 111 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 3: cost of ocean shipping, which then flowed through to the 112 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 3: increases in the cost of all sorts of products that 113 00:05:32,279 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 3: American companies and American consumers rely upon. I think you 114 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 3: could see to a lesser degree that kind of upward 115 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 3: pressure on prices because of these disruptions. It's one of 116 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 3: many reasons why it would be useful to try to 117 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 3: resolve that as quickly as possible. 118 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course you speak of supply chains. Progress 119 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 2: made on supply chains is something that this White House 120 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 2: has frequently touted, just as they have frequently touted the 121 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: low unemployment rate, all of the job growth that has 122 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: happened under Biden's presidency, and yet it hasn't, as you 123 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 2: well know, reflected necessarily in polling in his economic approval rating. 124 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 2: Now that you're outside the White House looking in, what 125 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: do they need to change to actually get that to resonate. 126 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 3: Honestly, I don't think that they need to change course 127 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 3: very much. I think that what you are seeing in 128 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 3: terms of the disconnect in economic data and economic sentiment 129 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 3: is mostly explained by the fact that there's always going 130 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 3: to be a lag. Look, we in the White House 131 00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 3: celebrated when wages started rising higher than inflation and real 132 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 3: wages turn positive. But if you're an ordinary person out there, 133 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 3: you're not going to switch on a dime the second 134 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: that real wages take over from negative to positive. You 135 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 3: want to see a sustained set of time. When inflation 136 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 3: is coming down, your take home pay is clearly allowing 137 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 3: you to pay for the things that you need at 138 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 3: the grocery store and at the pump. And I think 139 00:06:54,480 --> 00:06:56,280 Speaker 3: what you're starting to see now, now that there's been 140 00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 3: several months of real wage gains inflation is starting to 141 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 3: recede a bit, is that the sentiment data is ticking up. 142 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 3: You see it in the consumer board information, you see 143 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,560 Speaker 3: it in the Michigan sentiment data, you see it in 144 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 3: some of the polling data about the presence economic approval. 145 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 3: All of that stuff is starting to tick up. And 146 00:07:14,640 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 3: I would be surprised if it doesn't continue to tick 147 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 3: up over the next several months as the salience of 148 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 3: inflation receipts. 149 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 4: Well. 150 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: The ticking up, though, of those confidence metrics, probably is 151 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 2: reliant on the fact that we actually don't get a recession. 152 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 2: That the landing is soft. Do you think that's fully 153 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 2: assured at this point. 154 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,720 Speaker 3: I'm hesitant to say that anything is fully assured. If 155 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 3: there's one thing I learned from my time at the 156 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 3: White House is that you have to expect the unexpected. 157 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: But I would say that all of the data that 158 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 3: we have available to us right now about the state 159 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 3: of the labor market, about consumer spending, about business investment, 160 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 3: all seems to suggest that we are going to have 161 00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:54,559 Speaker 3: a soft landing. 162 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: Now. 163 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 3: There are things that can disrupt it, as you just noted, 164 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 3: some of the disruptions on the shipping side could send 165 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 3: inflation moving in the wrong direction. You could have other 166 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 3: geopolitical events that could end up pushing us in the 167 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,840 Speaker 3: wrong direction. But based on the data that we have 168 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 3: available to us right now, we're certainly on a path 169 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 3: to a soft landing. I know that Secretary Yellen made 170 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 3: a similar point just earlier today, so I would have 171 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 3: a lot of optimism on that front. And if in 172 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 3: fact we can secure that soft landing, and what we 173 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 3: have over the next several months is inflation at or 174 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 3: near the target, continued steady job growth, I would be very, 175 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 3: very surprised if you don't see a consumer sentiment and 176 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 3: economic sentiment go up quite a bit in the months 177 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 3: to come. 178 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 2: How much does fiscal risk factor though, into ultimately economic outcomes. 179 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 2: Knowing Congress is getting ready to return to Washington next week, 180 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 2: there's going to be a big fight over appropriations ahead, 181 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 2: with the thread of not just to shut down, but 182 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 2: potentially a one percent cut across the border, sequester come 183 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 2: aprol If they really can't sort this out, how concerned 184 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:54,800 Speaker 2: should we be from an economic standpoint? 185 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 3: I think from a macroeconomic perspective, we shouldn't be overly concerned. 186 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 3: If you look at analyzes of past shutdowns. For example, 187 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 3: I was working on Capitol Hill back in twenty thirteen 188 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 3: when there was a month long shutdown, the data tends 189 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 3: to suggest that that has a pretty limited impact macroeconomically. Now, 190 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 3: of course, there is a significant impact on people's lives, 191 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,160 Speaker 3: on millions of federal employees, on people who rely on 192 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 3: certain forms of government services who are not going to 193 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 3: get those in a shutdown. And if you see some 194 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 3: sort of prolonged locked in reduction in government spending over 195 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 3: the long term, that would be a risk. I don't 196 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,280 Speaker 3: think we're at any risk of that happening. If we're 197 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,439 Speaker 3: going to have some sort of one week two week 198 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 3: shutdown as people sort out these issues, I don't think 199 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 3: that that's much of a risk for a macroeconomic perspective. 200 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: All right, but Rama Murti, thank you so much for 201 00:09:44,400 --> 00:09:46,640 Speaker 2: joining the program on this job's day. He's a senior 202 00:09:46,679 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 2: advisor for economic strategy at the American Economic Liberties Project 203 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 2: and of course, former deputy director of the NEC. Reflecting 204 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 2: on today's jobs Day, let's get the reflections now of 205 00:09:57,000 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 2: our wonderful Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno 206 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 2: are with me, So Genie, I'll post the same question 207 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,520 Speaker 2: to you that I essentially asked brought a moment ago. 208 00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: Is Biden actually able to use the jobs report like 209 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 2: this to his advantage when he hasn't been able to 210 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 2: tout the strength of the economy successfully much at all. 211 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 5: He's got to keep reminding people that the numbers look 212 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 5: very good, and at the same time to acknowledge that, 213 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 5: as you were just talking about, there is a lag 214 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 5: and so they may not be feeling that yet due 215 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 5: to the inflation pressure. So you know, it is a 216 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,840 Speaker 5: very hard line for the president to walk. But it 217 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 5: is an astonishingly good report, you know, twenty three months Kaylee, 218 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 5: you mentioned it's stunning numbers that are much better, I 219 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 5: think than anybody could have expected. 220 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:48,319 Speaker 4: And hearing j. 221 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 5: Yellen talk about the fact that this soft landing may 222 00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 5: be in the offing, that is all very good. It 223 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 5: hasn't translated politically yet, unfortunately for the president, but the 224 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,760 Speaker 5: team feels fairly confident in the coming months as that 225 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 5: we beat that lag, that they may be able to 226 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 5: benefit from it politically. But it's a hard message to 227 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,080 Speaker 5: sell when people are still feeling inflation as they go 228 00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 5: to the store and elsewhere. 229 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 2: Well, and Rick, knowing that Biden has really struggled in 230 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 2: terms of actually getting voters to recognize his economic accomplishments, 231 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 2: is that why we're seeing such a big deal made 232 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 2: Perhaps actually you could even call it a kicking off 233 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 2: fully of his election year campaign efforts in Valley Forge, 234 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 2: Pennsylvania to talk about Donald Trump being a threat to democracy? 235 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 2: Is this really his best remaining strategy? 236 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 6: Yeah? Look, obviously that link to his announced you know, 237 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 6: his speech today linked to January sixth, the anniversary that 238 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 6: it draws you to that conclusion to talk about democracy 239 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 6: under threat. But the reality is he can't give enough 240 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 6: speeches about the economy. As Genie points out, he is 241 00:11:55,400 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 6: not considered credible on this. He's got one of the 242 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 6: lowest presidential rates on managing the economy. Trump beats him significantly, 243 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 6: and he's got to fix that if he wants to get. 244 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 7: A second term. 245 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 6: The good news is, has pointed out in today's report, 246 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 6: He's got plenty to talk about. But I've yet to 247 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 6: see this administration really fan out around the country to 248 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 6: promote what he likes to call bidnomics, and one speech 249 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 6: a month is not going to get it done. 250 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 2: Well, Rick, how much would he be helped by FED cuts? 251 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 2: Knowing how familiar you are with timing in campaigns and 252 00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,880 Speaker 2: how it may work for you or against you, At 253 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:37,719 Speaker 2: what point will mine's already been made up enough on 254 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 2: the economy that therefore even FED cuts aren't going to 255 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 2: change the mind of a voter or I guess that's 256 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 2: just my question. Does it matter when the cuts come 257 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:48,960 Speaker 2: or people will already have made decisions by the point 258 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 2: that they do. 259 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, it matters. 260 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 6: We're seeing right now is what we historically have seen 261 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 6: in campaigns, which is a pretty significant lag between any 262 00:12:58,920 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 6: kind of good news and an improvement in the ballot, 263 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 6: improvement in the public image of the present around something 264 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 6: like the economy. It seems voters are always negatively inclined. 265 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 6: If there's something bad happens, they change your mind immediately, 266 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 6: But when good things are happening, it takes a month, 267 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 6: you know, three, four, five, six months to really internalize 268 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 6: the improvement. So the sooner the Fed could act, if 269 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 6: they do on rate cuts, the better it would be 270 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 6: for Biden. He has not got much credibility on inflation 271 00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 6: and fighting it. He you know, more voters will tell 272 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 6: you in a focus group that they didn't take it 273 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 6: seriously than the fact that you know they're they're doing 274 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 6: what they need to do to tackle it. And so 275 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 6: the same will apply. If the Fed starts to cut 276 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 6: right soon, there'll be a lag, but that lag will 277 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 6: actually I. 278 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 7: Think inord to the benefit of the Biden campaign. 279 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,559 Speaker 2: All Right, Rick Davis and Genie Schanzena will be sticking 280 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 2: with me. Just a note on how voters are feeling 281 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 2: about the economy any producer. James points out the Suffolk 282 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 2: USA poll earlier this week, thirty percent said they think 283 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 2: we're in a recession. Only twenty nine percent said they 284 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 2: think it's an economic recovery, twenty one percent stagnation, and 285 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 2: sixteen percent depression. So not necessarily encouraging for the incumbent administration. 286 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 2: But coming up, we're not going to talk about the incumbent. 287 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,080 Speaker 2: We're going to talk about the Republicans trying to kick 288 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 2: him out of the Oval office in this twenty twenty 289 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 2: four cycle. 290 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,400 Speaker 4: That's next. This is Bloomberg. 291 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 292 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 293 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 294 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 295 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 296 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,440 Speaker 2: Welcome back to the fastest show in politics and talk 297 00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 2: about things going fast. Iowa already is almost upon us. 298 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: We are in the middle of now a ten day countdown. 299 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,840 Speaker 2: It is just ten more days until the all important 300 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 2: Iowa caucuses, where yes, it is highly likely that former 301 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 2: President Donald Trump is going to win. Polls show him 302 00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 2: ahead by a significant margin, pulling it north of fifty 303 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 2: percent in a lot of polls. So I'm not sure 304 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 2: we can call it a real contest yet. The question 305 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 2: is can Nicky Haley or Ronda Santis put up a 306 00:15:23,600 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 2: strong enough showing in Iowa that it becomes more of 307 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 2: a contest. They certainly are competing fiercely for the second 308 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 2: place position here, and they were each making their cases 309 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: last night in CNN town halls. Interestingly, though, they took 310 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 2: more barbs at Donald Trump than each other, which is 311 00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 2: a bit of a reversal from what we've seen so 312 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 2: far this cycle. Here's Ronda Santis last evening. 313 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 8: Do you think Donald Trump is not pro life? 314 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:51,000 Speaker 9: Course not? 315 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 10: I mean, when you're saying that pro life protections are 316 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,720 Speaker 10: a terrible thing by definition, you are not pro life. 317 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 10: When you say that you want to have a federal 318 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 10: law at eighteen weeks or twenty weeks that would override 319 00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 10: a state like Iowa that has enacted pro life protections. 320 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 10: That would mean more abortions not less abortions. 321 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 2: He went on to also criticize the former president for 322 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 2: failing to keep his promises on the border wall as 323 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,160 Speaker 2: well as spending. Meanwhile, here's Nicki Haley on Trump. 324 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 8: For me, it's not about guilt or innocence. It's about 325 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 8: what's in the best interest for the country. And I 326 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 8: don't think our country will move forward with an eighty 327 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 8: year old president sitting in jail. That allows our country 328 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 8: to continue to be divided. We have to move on 329 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 8: past that. 330 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: She also said chaos follows Trump and that the country 331 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 2: can't take another four years of chaos. So on that note, 332 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 2: let's bring back Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno, our Bloomberg 333 00:16:51,040 --> 00:16:54,440 Speaker 2: Politics contributors. So, Rick, what do you make of their 334 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 2: hits at Trump last night? Were they strong enough? 335 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 6: Yeah? I mean this first time we've seen them both, 336 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,840 Speaker 6: as you point out, lean in against Trump and not 337 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 6: lean into each other. So I think they've figured out 338 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 6: who's actually winning the election so far. 339 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:14,360 Speaker 7: So that's instructive too. I think that the attacks are 340 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 7: nothing new. 341 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 6: They've kind of reprised these throughout their campaign, but the 342 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 6: fact that they've ramped up many of them in the 343 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 6: same event is indication that they're feeling a little bit 344 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 6: of the pinch. I would say much more important for 345 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:33,359 Speaker 6: DeSantis to contrast with Nikki Haley, because if there's any 346 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,280 Speaker 6: chance that he gets a quote ticket out of Iowa, 347 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 6: it means he's got to come in second. I can't 348 00:17:39,160 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 6: imagine a scenario where he comes in third and is 349 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 6: currently pulling anemic figures in New Hampshire and the two 350 00:17:48,040 --> 00:17:51,359 Speaker 6: of those things in combination are at deathblow to his campaign. 351 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 6: Wouldn't surprise me that he has an election night in 352 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 6: Iowa like Howard Dean did in two thousand and four, 353 00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 6: where there's a little bit of screaming occurs. 354 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 2: Okay, I want to get back to how the margin 355 00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:05,840 Speaker 2: of second may matter here and what that ultimately means 356 00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 2: for New Hampshire. But Genie, first, I want to ask 357 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 2: you about something else Nikki Haley frankly had to talk 358 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 2: about last night, which was her Civil War gaff, the 359 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,719 Speaker 2: idea that she did not attribute slavery as a cause 360 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 2: of the Civil War previously, and part of her response, 361 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 2: she said, and this is a quote, if you grow 362 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 2: up in South Carolina, literally in second and third grade, 363 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,560 Speaker 2: you learn about slavery, You grow up and you have 364 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 2: you know, I had black friends growing up. Does that 365 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: help her get out of the hole or dig it deeper? 366 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 5: Digsit deeper. You know, this was a huge misstep by 367 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 5: Nikki Haley a few weeks ago. She keeps getting asked 368 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,960 Speaker 5: about it, and you know, I thought she actually performed 369 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:49,560 Speaker 5: pretty well last night. But as you wake up and 370 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 5: you see the Twitter feeds and you see what's being 371 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,359 Speaker 5: reposted and shared from the night, that line that you 372 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 5: just mentioned Kaylee about I have black friends, that's really 373 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,120 Speaker 5: what we're left with. And so that is a problem 374 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 5: for us, for her, and so you know, is it 375 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 5: going to be a wound she can't recover from. Absolutely not. 376 00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,159 Speaker 5: But I think in many people's minds it's indicative of 377 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 5: what DeSantis and Christy and now Donald Trump as he's 378 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 5: hitting her more forcefully as he sees her rising in 379 00:19:19,119 --> 00:19:22,119 Speaker 5: the polls in New Hampshire have said is that she 380 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,239 Speaker 5: is trying to be all things to all people and 381 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 5: that she is not authentic, not saying what she actually believes. 382 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 5: I think there was actually like a nine year old 383 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 5: kid in New Hampshire who asked her the other day, 384 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 5: you know something about her being a flip flopper like 385 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 5: John carry I don't know how a nine year old 386 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:42,359 Speaker 5: remembers John Carrey, but that's what's in people's minds, and 387 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 5: so I do think it's problematic for her. I thought, again, 388 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 5: she did a good job on the night, but when 389 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 5: you know, in this media eraror when everything is shared 390 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 5: that's the clip we're seeing of her, it does become 391 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 5: a bit of a problem for her. 392 00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 2: So it raises the question of how strong a showing 393 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,120 Speaker 2: she might actually be able to put up in ten 394 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 2: days time. So Rick, to return to you on the 395 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 2: question of obviously Donald Trump is going to lead Iowa 396 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 2: barring something completely unforeseen. It's about number two and how 397 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 2: close number two is to Trump number one? Right, what 398 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,920 Speaker 2: kind of margin does Nicki Haley actually need to make 399 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 2: New Hampshire actually in play. 400 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, First of all, she's already got New Hampshire in play. Right, 401 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,880 Speaker 6: in all the most current polling, she's hovering around ten 402 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:34,240 Speaker 6: percent behind Trump. That is way up from just six 403 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:39,159 Speaker 6: months ago. So New Hampshire is a race today. And 404 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 6: so what she's trying to do is figure out what 405 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 6: she can do to add to that momentum, which is 406 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 6: why she's placed a massive thirty. 407 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:48,120 Speaker 7: Million dollar buy in Iowa. 408 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:51,600 Speaker 6: And with all due respect to social media, when you've 409 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 6: got thirty million dollars worth of commercials pounding away in 410 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:58,720 Speaker 6: three media markets in Iowa, you're controlling the message. And 411 00:20:59,080 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 6: the message that she had is that she's electable, she 412 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,400 Speaker 6: can beat Biden, and that's what Republicans want to hear. 413 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:08,439 Speaker 6: They care a little bit less about the Santis and 414 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 6: Nikki Haley than they do about Joe Biden. And so 415 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 6: if you tell them that you can beat Biden and 416 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 6: you show it in the polling data that's circulating, you've 417 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 6: got credibility. And so she's actually waging a pretty credible 418 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 6: argument and it undermines Donald Trump's arguments of electability. 419 00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 7: So it works both in New Hampshire and Iowa. So 420 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 7: if she does. 421 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 6: Sort of surprise everybody and come in second in Iowa, 422 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,959 Speaker 6: she will get a boost going into the New Hampshire campaign, 423 00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,719 Speaker 6: and then the question is what can she do with it? 424 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 6: If DeSantis comes in second place. It's pretty much what 425 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 6: he has said all along that he was going to do. 426 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 6: In fact, he's actually said he was going to win Iowa, 427 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,720 Speaker 6: which was a mistake. But then the question is going 428 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,360 Speaker 6: to be where's he go from here? Because he has 429 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,439 Speaker 6: no campaign in New Hampshire, has no campaign in South Carolina. 430 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,200 Speaker 7: There aren't a lot of. 431 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 6: Super Tuesday states that are good for DeSantis, and so 432 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 6: he'll have to come up with a narrative on election 433 00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:12,679 Speaker 6: night that says somehow he can go from here to 434 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:16,400 Speaker 6: you know, from Iowa in second place to a victory somewhere, 435 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,239 Speaker 6: and at least at least Nicky can point to the 436 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,439 Speaker 6: fact that she is closer to Trump than any candidate 437 00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 6: has been since Ron DeSantis got into the race in 438 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 6: New Hampshire. So all eyes will shift immediately from Iowa 439 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 6: to New Hampshire and we'll see whether or not it's 440 00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,919 Speaker 6: it's impact that Iowa election has anything to do with 441 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 6: the New Hampshire outcome. 442 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 2: Well, we'll also see, Genie, if there are just fewer 443 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,159 Speaker 2: candidates in play come New Hampshire. It's not just a 444 00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 2: question of whether Ron DeSantis moved on past Iowa. But 445 00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:50,720 Speaker 2: there are other players in this game as well. Chris 446 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,479 Speaker 2: Christy in the vaig Ramaswami, how likely is it in 447 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 2: your mind that we see a consolidation of the field 448 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 2: before we actually get up there to Manchester. 449 00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 5: We really should. I mean, if you think about Chris 450 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,320 Speaker 5: Christie's campaign, it was predicated on ensuring that Donald Trump 451 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 5: is not the nominee of the party. Well, if that's 452 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 5: the case and he has zero paths, and really he 453 00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,679 Speaker 5: has less than zero path to victory here, then you 454 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 5: would think he would bow out and allow his supporters 455 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 5: to go where they go. You know, maybe Nikki Haley, 456 00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 5: maybe they look elsewhere. But you know, I think we 457 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 5: should see something like that if he was true to 458 00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,240 Speaker 5: what he said. And of course, Vivek Ramaswami, he's barely 459 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 5: showing in the polls at this point. He really does 460 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 5: seem to be playing for a vice presidential or cabinet 461 00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 5: spot at this point. I don't know if he's going 462 00:23:44,400 --> 00:23:46,600 Speaker 5: to need to make a statement because he already seems 463 00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 5: out of it. But you know, I do think that 464 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 5: the really interesting question is going to be for Donald Trump, 465 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 5: who keeps talking about his fifty sixty point forty point 466 00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 5: victory and lead in the polls, and what happens if 467 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 5: either of these candidates in the Santas or Haley does 468 00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 5: better than expected. It's a dangerous game Donald Trump is 469 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 5: playing by making that case. And you know, he's gonna 470 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,399 Speaker 5: have to eat that if one of them or both 471 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 5: of them does far better than expected, which is possible 472 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 5: given to Santas' ground game in Iowa. And what Rick 473 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 5: was thus talking about with Nicky Haley's money in Iowa, 474 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 5: that she has to spend on the media. 475 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, ninety nine counties visited for Ronda Santis. Donald Trump 476 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 2: himself hasn't really spent much time in Iowa at all, 477 00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 2: though he will be there next week when he's counterprogrammed 478 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,840 Speaker 2: counterprogramming the Haley DeSantis debate with a Fox Town Hall. 479 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 2: So obviously all of us are going to be tuned in. 480 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,640 Speaker 2: We got to talk about Congress returning to Washington next. 481 00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,959 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 482 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 483 00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,359 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listening on 484 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 485 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 2: Chip Roy, of course, Republican from Texas. I actually spoke 486 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 2: with him on Balance of Power last night and asked 487 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 2: him about this idea that it's either shut down the 488 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 2: border or shut down the government. 489 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 4: And this is what he told me. 490 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 9: We need to pass HR two or we need to 491 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 9: withhold funding until we get it. I mean, if you 492 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,280 Speaker 9: read federal's papers, if you look at the founding of 493 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 9: our country, our job, Article one is to hold the 494 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,119 Speaker 9: funding and to use it to force an administration that 495 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 9: is ignoring the law to do their job. Here's my question, 496 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 9: what would people have us do? Just say whatever you 497 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,399 Speaker 9: want to do, allehandra maiorchis whatever you want to do, 498 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 9: Joe Biden blatantly ignore the law while people die. And 499 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 9: to all my Republican colleagues who are going around going, oh, 500 00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 9: we might have a shutdown, what happens with the government, 501 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:45,800 Speaker 9: you go talk to the people of Texas or people 502 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 9: in your community. 503 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 2: That was Congressman Chip Roy. Let's get another view now 504 00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 2: from another Republican member of the House, Congresswoman Nicole mally 505 00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:57,320 Speaker 2: Takis of New York. I'm pleased to say is with 506 00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,639 Speaker 2: us now? Congresswan, thank you so much for being here. 507 00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 2: Do you agree with this strategy shut down the government 508 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:05,520 Speaker 2: if you don't get what you want at the border? 509 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 11: Well, look, I think it's a lot more complicated than that. 510 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 11: I mean, I believe in good faith negotiation. I think 511 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:15,199 Speaker 11: we have to try to use our leverage, right in 512 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:20,520 Speaker 11: this process to push the Senate to make real advances 513 00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 11: in border security, which means we have to revert to 514 00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,000 Speaker 11: some of the policies of the previous administration. 515 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,640 Speaker 12: But we need to have a negotiation. 516 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 11: I would say we passed HR two, right, that was 517 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 11: the House Republicans' priorities, and basically it's what customs and 518 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:34,720 Speaker 11: border protection. 519 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,640 Speaker 12: If you spoke with their union, that's what they're saying 520 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 12: they want. 521 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:42,639 Speaker 11: Okay, they want technology, they want tools and resources, manpower, 522 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 11: but they also want policies that restore the order at 523 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 11: the southern border, that undo President Biden's executive orders. It 524 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 11: addresses some of the asylum issues, it addresses some of 525 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 11: the issues with visas, and I think it would be 526 00:26:56,480 --> 00:27:01,439 Speaker 11: really the It would be a tremendous, tremendous resolution to 527 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 11: what we're seeing at the southern border. Now the Senate 528 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 11: doesn't want to pass our bill, then the Senate should 529 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 11: pass its own bill. Let the Senate pass its own 530 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 11: bill of what it sees as priorities relating to the border, 531 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,480 Speaker 11: and then let's negotiate and reconcile the differences. 532 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 12: We passed our bill in May, and. 533 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 11: Yet we have Senator Schumer refusing to not only allow 534 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 11: our bill to the floor for a vote, which I 535 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,640 Speaker 11: strongly believe if Schumer brought Hr Two Order Security Act 536 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:26,600 Speaker 11: to the floor for a vote. 537 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 12: It would pass. He refuses to allow a vote. All 538 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 12: we're asking for is an up and down vote if 539 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 12: it doesn't pass, and we got to start from. 540 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 11: Scratch or pass your own bill, and then let's reconcile 541 00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:40,679 Speaker 11: those differences. But what we're seeing happening is so unsustainable, 542 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:43,399 Speaker 11: it is so distructed to communities like ours. Here in 543 00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:46,639 Speaker 11: New York City, the mayor is screaming saying that this 544 00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 11: is going to bankrup new York City. They're going to 545 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,120 Speaker 11: freeze hiring police officers across the board cuts, and yet 546 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 11: Senator Schumer represents New York City, refuses to take any action. 547 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 11: So we have to use whatever leverage we have. I 548 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 11: don't want to shut down the government. 549 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,200 Speaker 12: But we need to. We need to demand that border 550 00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 12: security be part of this resolution. 551 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 11: We're not going to continue to give money to Homeland Security. 552 00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 12: To simply process paperwork. They actually need to secure the border. 553 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: Okay, So, Congress, when you speak of negotiation and this 554 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 2: idea that the Senate should come up with something of 555 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 2: their own and pass it first. Yet there are many 556 00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:24,160 Speaker 2: members of your conference who are saying HR two essentially 557 00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:28,320 Speaker 2: or nothing, that HR two ultimately is all they settle for. 558 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 2: So if you're Mike Johnson, the House Speaker, is that 559 00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,199 Speaker 2: all he can settle for? You think, actually, knowing what 560 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 2: happened to the prior speaker, Kevin McCarthy, he's going to 561 00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 2: be able to pass something passed by Democrats in the 562 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 2: Senate in this House of Representatives. 563 00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 11: Well, look, HR two I think is an ideal piece 564 00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 11: of legislation. However, you know, I'm a Republican from New York. 565 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:52,000 Speaker 11: I'm in an overwhelming Democrats state, and I know that 566 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 11: we have to negotiate with the Democrats, as much as 567 00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 11: I may not like it sometimes to get anything done. 568 00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 11: And so what I would say is HR two is 569 00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 11: the Republican starting point. But that's why we need Senator 570 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,360 Speaker 11: Schumer to either allow a vote on our bill okay, 571 00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 11: which again I think it would pass if you brought 572 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,520 Speaker 11: up even though they control the Democrats control the Senate, 573 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 11: or pass your own bill, and then we can reconcile 574 00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 11: the differences and we would have to give a little, Yes, 575 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,800 Speaker 11: we'd have to give a little but certainly as long 576 00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 11: as our main provisions right that would make sure people 577 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,280 Speaker 11: are not released in the interior of this country, making 578 00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 11: sure that people have to wait in the next safe 579 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 11: country as they apply for asylum and go through an 580 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 11: orderly process, so our courts are not backlogged to the 581 00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 11: point where they are right now, which is a ten 582 00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:38,840 Speaker 11: year wait, making sure that we add more judges to 583 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 11: alleviate this backlog, making sure that we're not taking these 584 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:45,239 Speaker 11: individuals who are paying the drug cartels to cross our 585 00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 11: southern border before the people who have. 586 00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 12: Come legally and have been waiting in the system for years. 587 00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,560 Speaker 11: Right now, the way the system Joe Biden has it 588 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 11: set up is the border crossers are being heard first, 589 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 11: and so the people who have been waiting patiently, doing 590 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 11: everything right, following the rules, didn't pay the drug cartels 591 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 11: to come here, They're getting pushed to the back and 592 00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 11: getting years long delays. And I know this because I've 593 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,480 Speaker 11: been working personally with many cases constituents, and I've had 594 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:13,920 Speaker 11: to cut through his bureaucracy and red tape for them. 595 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 11: And it's very unfair that the President's prioritizing the people 596 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,080 Speaker 11: pay the drug cartels to be smuggled here as opposed 597 00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 11: to the ones who have been waiting in the system. 598 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:23,959 Speaker 11: So I would simply say, is I understand that as 599 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,440 Speaker 11: a give and take here, but it's hard to negotiate 600 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 11: with the Senate when they've passed nothing. We need to 601 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 11: see what their priorities are, right, That's how it works. 602 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 11: We show you our cards, you show us yours, and 603 00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:36,959 Speaker 11: then we try to reconcile the differences and get a 604 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 11: piece of legislation passed. 605 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 2: So, Congresswoman, there's the Senate in the House obviously in 606 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 2: play here as well as the White House, because Biden's 607 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 2: ultimately going to have to sign this legislation, and knowing 608 00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:51,760 Speaker 2: that Biden does need a win on border policy politically, 609 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 2: do you think there is another actor here for House 610 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,880 Speaker 2: Republicans in the man who is very likely going to 611 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,840 Speaker 2: be running against him in the general election in twenty 612 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:03,720 Speaker 2: twenty four. How much influence does Donald Trump have on 613 00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 2: the people in the House making these decisions right now? 614 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:08,440 Speaker 9: Well? 615 00:31:08,760 --> 00:31:09,440 Speaker 12: I don't think he. 616 00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 11: I think the House Republicans want border security. That is 617 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,920 Speaker 11: our number one priority. We want to see reasonable policy, 618 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 11: and yes, we have legislation to add more visas for 619 00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 11: people that want to come and work and provide for 620 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 11: their families in industries that we need workers right to 621 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 11: address our labor shortage, and it should be strategic. 622 00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 12: And we should be doing that. 623 00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 11: But this idea that we're just going to allow ten 624 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:39,560 Speaker 11: million people to enter our country, two million of which. 625 00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 12: We don't know who they are, where they are, or 626 00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:42,080 Speaker 12: what their intention are. 627 00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 11: That's the number that CBP estimated has entered our country 628 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 11: is very dangerous. 629 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:47,120 Speaker 12: When we know. 630 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,000 Speaker 11: Fetanol is killing a record number of Americans, we know 631 00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 11: that there's sex trafficking, children, women being exploited, when we 632 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 11: know that we've caught terrorists at the border that are 633 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 11: on the FBI watch list, this is insane that we 634 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,200 Speaker 11: would have this type of open border policy to post. 635 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:04,800 Speaker 12: Nine to eleven world. 636 00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 11: So I think the House is working independently and this 637 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,600 Speaker 11: is their priority, regardless of any the national figures. I mean, 638 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 11: we see this as a real issue, both economic issue, 639 00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 11: a public safety national security issue, and it just needs 640 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 11: to be addressed. And if Joe Biden will not do 641 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:25,000 Speaker 11: something like we send the executive boarders that created this 642 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,120 Speaker 11: is executive orders that created this mess. 643 00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:28,560 Speaker 12: Now we need to take action. 644 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 11: We got to use every tool and leverage that we 645 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 11: have so to get the set as hacked. 646 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,120 Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, when you say the House is going to 647 00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 2: make these decisions independently of any actor, so is that 648 00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 2: essentially you saying, even if you do have the former 649 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:44,640 Speaker 2: president potentially making noise about a deal that Mike Johnson 650 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,560 Speaker 2: and House leadership, which pretty much everyone has endorsed him 651 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 2: at this point, would pass it anyway. 652 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 11: Look, I think you'll have the votes if we actually 653 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 11: if we actually get the Senate to work with us, 654 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,200 Speaker 11: and we can hash out an agreement that would reinstate 655 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 11: some of the Trump era policies, address the issues of 656 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 11: visas and asylum and work permits for people who are 657 00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,880 Speaker 11: going to come legally and follow the proper path. Then 658 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,480 Speaker 11: you would see what you usually see in these types 659 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,760 Speaker 11: of scenarios, right like you did in the debt default 660 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,200 Speaker 11: you did it with avoiding the shutdown. You'll see the 661 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 11: far right vote against it, the far left vote against it, 662 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 11: and then everyone else in the middle voting for it. 663 00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 11: Over over three hundred probably members voting for it. That's 664 00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 11: what usually happens. 665 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 12: At the end of the day when there is a negotiation. 666 00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:32,880 Speaker 11: The extremes sit it out, they vote no and complain 667 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 11: about it, and then the middle who actually have to govern. 668 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 12: Right, we pass the legislation, do what we can with. 669 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 12: People have to. 670 00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:44,400 Speaker 11: Understand that Republicans, we control one third of the government, right, 671 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 11: the Democrats have the. 672 00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 12: Said they have the White House. We need to negotiate. 673 00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 11: We're not going to get everything we want, but if 674 00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,520 Speaker 11: we can get some really good wins that actually address 675 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,680 Speaker 11: the crisis and stop this mass migration flow to New 676 00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:57,840 Speaker 11: York City that's hurting cities like ours and we can't 677 00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 11: afford it and we're seeing citizen services being cut as 678 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 11: a result, well then that's a win and we should 679 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:04,680 Speaker 11: do it, regardless of who, at the end of the 680 00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,880 Speaker 11: day will take political credit for it. We need to 681 00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:07,440 Speaker 11: do the right thing. 682 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 2: Okay, Well, you've mentioned New York a few times, so 683 00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 2: let's talk specifically about what's happening. They're obviously dealing with 684 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 2: an influx of migrants, many of which have been bussed 685 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,680 Speaker 2: from Texas, and I'm sure you saw the news yesterday. 686 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 2: New York is now suing seventeen Texas bus companies for 687 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 2: seven hundred and eight million dollars to recoup costs incurred 688 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,360 Speaker 2: by providing shelter and services to these migrants. 689 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,799 Speaker 4: Do you agree? Do you support that move? 690 00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 11: Congressomone, Look, I support any tool that's going to stop 691 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 11: this flow. I think a lot of the problem of 692 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 11: these non government organizations, these NGOs that receive a lot 693 00:34:42,640 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 11: of government funding, they are responsible for transporting the majority 694 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,680 Speaker 11: of the migrants. Yes, states like Texas are sending some, 695 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,280 Speaker 11: but that's about ten to fifteen percent of the individuals 696 00:34:54,320 --> 00:34:57,320 Speaker 11: that we're seeing in New York City. So I support 697 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:58,640 Speaker 11: any measure that will stop it. 698 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 12: But truly, which. 699 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,040 Speaker 11: Really going to stop it is if we secure the border. 700 00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:03,399 Speaker 11: Right at the end of the day, it comes down 701 00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 11: to that, and so I really urge Mayor Adams to 702 00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:11,799 Speaker 11: get Senator Schumer to act, and he he calls for 703 00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,560 Speaker 11: more funding, he called which which would only exacerbate the problem. Right, 704 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 11: It would just allow him to open up more shelters 705 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,560 Speaker 11: and more encampments in New York City, And it may 706 00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:23,560 Speaker 11: it may help the city financially, but doesn't really solve 707 00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 11: the problem. What's really going to solve the problem is 708 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 11: having border security and a reasonable process for people, which 709 00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 11: we do by the way we have laws and for 710 00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,279 Speaker 11: generations people have been coming, including my own parents through 711 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,719 Speaker 11: this country. We have a process in place. It needs 712 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 11: to be followed, it needs to be enforced, and that's 713 00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:43,479 Speaker 11: what we need. We need more resources to make sure 714 00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:44,799 Speaker 11: that these cases are heard. 715 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,480 Speaker 4: Quicker, Congressman. 716 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,000 Speaker 2: Finally, I only have a minute left with you, but 717 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,280 Speaker 2: I do want to make sure to ask this question. 718 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 2: How confident are you that a partial shutdown on January 719 00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:55,800 Speaker 2: nineteenth can be averted? 720 00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,920 Speaker 11: You know, I think there's a lot of variables right now, 721 00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 11: so it's hard to say. 722 00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:04,120 Speaker 12: Look, they've said we were going. 723 00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:05,560 Speaker 4: To show, say more likely than not. 724 00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:11,399 Speaker 11: I would say at a partial shutdown would be more 725 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,280 Speaker 11: likely than a complete shutdown. 726 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 12: But I also. 727 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,239 Speaker 11: Think that you know, people have said we were going 728 00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,360 Speaker 11: to have shutdowns twice before in this Congress, and we 729 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,880 Speaker 11: did it. We averted it last minute, working in a 730 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:25,759 Speaker 11: bipartisan way. But at some point we need to see 731 00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:29,920 Speaker 11: policy changes. We don't want to just continue the existing 732 00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:33,400 Speaker 11: funding levels. We have a thirty four trillion dollar debt. 733 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:36,879 Speaker 11: We need to be serious about spending and we've got 734 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,759 Speaker 11: to find savings. And so that is why negotiating is 735 00:36:39,760 --> 00:36:40,839 Speaker 11: so important right now. 736 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 2: All right, and on that note, we believe it. Congressman, 737 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:46,799 Speaker 2: thank you so much for your time safe travels back 738 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,359 Speaker 2: to Washington next week. That is Republican Congresswoman from New York, 739 00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,520 Speaker 2: Nicole Maliotakis. We'll have much more coming up next on 740 00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,239 Speaker 2: the second hour of sound On. 741 00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,480 Speaker 4: So stick with us. This is Bloomberg. 742 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 743 00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 744 00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,759 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 745 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,759 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 746 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:19,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 747 00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:22,799 Speaker 2: We want to get more on the jobs figures now, 748 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,880 Speaker 2: because two hundred and sixteen thousand payrolls added in the 749 00:37:25,880 --> 00:37:28,080 Speaker 2: month of December, economists thought it would be one hundred 750 00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,400 Speaker 2: and seventy five thousand, and rather than a three point 751 00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 2: eight percent unemployment rate economists we're looking for. What we 752 00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,880 Speaker 2: got was three point seven. Wages were a little hot 753 00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:39,200 Speaker 2: as well. So what does all this mean and what 754 00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,719 Speaker 2: does it mean specifically for the Federal Reserve. Let's get 755 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 2: more insight now with Bloomberg's International Economics and Policy correspondent 756 00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,759 Speaker 2: Michael McKee, who is also in New York. So Mike, 757 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:51,800 Speaker 2: I guess my first question is is it as strong 758 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 2: under the surface as meets the eye. 759 00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,960 Speaker 13: Not quite, and it's a little weird under the surface. 760 00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,680 Speaker 13: There are a number of different oddities in this report, 761 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:02,320 Speaker 13: none of which you are really going to matter to 762 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:05,680 Speaker 13: the Federal Reserve. But the two hundred and sixteen thousand 763 00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,839 Speaker 13: has to be weighed against the seventy one thousand that 764 00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,239 Speaker 13: were subtracted from October and November, so you get a 765 00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,719 Speaker 13: net of one hundred and forty five thousand. And we 766 00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,719 Speaker 13: were running in the third quarter at about a two 767 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,520 Speaker 13: hundred and twenty five thousand average pace, So clearly there's 768 00:38:19,560 --> 00:38:22,879 Speaker 13: a deceleration here. And the fact that the unemployment rate 769 00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:24,919 Speaker 13: did not go up was because a lot of people 770 00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 13: left the labor force. But most of those people didn't 771 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 13: lose their jobs, they just were not in the labor force, 772 00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,080 Speaker 13: so they're not counted as unemployed. So we don't know 773 00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 13: exactly why they went out, other than maybe it was 774 00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 13: the holidays and they didn't feel like looking for work 775 00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,399 Speaker 13: or something like that. And finally, and this gets into 776 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:48,120 Speaker 13: the political side of things, the unemployment rate for blacks 777 00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:52,959 Speaker 13: and for Asians went down, while for whites it went up, 778 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,480 Speaker 13: and usually if you're going into a recession or something 779 00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:58,480 Speaker 13: like that, it works the other way. So a lot 780 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,719 Speaker 13: of things to consider when looking at this report. But 781 00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,680 Speaker 13: as I said, I don't think the FED is going 782 00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,160 Speaker 13: to change its views one way or another based on this. 783 00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,520 Speaker 2: Well, Mike, I guess it's important to recognize here that 784 00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,919 Speaker 2: the Fed's views on cutting maybe different than the view 785 00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:17,359 Speaker 2: the market has adopted on cutting, because the market thinks 786 00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:18,920 Speaker 2: the Fed's going to be cutting a lot more than 787 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,799 Speaker 2: was suggested in the dot platter, frankly was suggested in 788 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,440 Speaker 2: the minutes from the fed's December meeting that were released 789 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 2: this week. They talked about how they wouldn't essentially rule 790 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,960 Speaker 2: out another hike. There was no suggestion that rates aren't 791 00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,880 Speaker 2: going to stay higher for a longer period of time. 792 00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:38,080 Speaker 2: So I guess, is what changed here, or what could 793 00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,719 Speaker 2: change more market interpretation than actual Fed interpretation, because the 794 00:39:41,760 --> 00:39:44,359 Speaker 2: FED may have been thinking things all along that are 795 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:45,839 Speaker 2: supported by the data. 796 00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,400 Speaker 13: Yeah, I know what you're trying to say here, It 797 00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:49,640 Speaker 13: is a weird situation. 798 00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:51,640 Speaker 4: I'm not sure I succeeded. 799 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 13: Soas helped me on television earlier today that the FED 800 00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,319 Speaker 13: and the bond market are kind of married, but they're 801 00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,239 Speaker 13: not sleeping in the same bed. They're not even sleeping 802 00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,360 Speaker 13: in the same house. They're quite far apart, and that 803 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:07,240 Speaker 13: has to change. How it changes will depend on the data. 804 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,880 Speaker 13: We had a very weird day to day where inflation 805 00:40:11,200 --> 00:40:15,399 Speaker 13: went up in Europe. It wasn't unexpected, but it went 806 00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,320 Speaker 13: up in Europe, and all of a sudden, the market's 807 00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:21,759 Speaker 13: priced out a number of ECB rate cuts. Same thing 808 00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:23,920 Speaker 13: happened in the United States with the jobs report. They 809 00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:27,840 Speaker 13: price out rate cuts when the FED when the employment 810 00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:31,000 Speaker 13: numbers came out, and then that ISM number came out, 811 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,880 Speaker 13: the ISM services, which showed a slowdown in the service industries, 812 00:40:34,920 --> 00:40:37,280 Speaker 13: a big drop in prices and an even bigger drop 813 00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,799 Speaker 13: in jobs. That wasn't confirmed by the payroll report, but 814 00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,960 Speaker 13: it was enough that all these markets, futures markets did 815 00:40:44,040 --> 00:40:47,479 Speaker 13: a u turn and now are back to pricing in 816 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:52,000 Speaker 13: March moves. So if you can explain the bond market thinking, 817 00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,560 Speaker 13: to me, you're doing better than most people, I think 818 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,799 Speaker 13: basically what you end up with is people are taking 819 00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 13: advantage of cheap options on the idea of maybe kind 820 00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,680 Speaker 13: of hedging against the possibility that the FED might actually 821 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:09,240 Speaker 13: end up if inflation goes down cutting rates in March, 822 00:41:10,239 --> 00:41:13,920 Speaker 13: those options may fall off if the data don't support 823 00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,880 Speaker 13: what we're doing, and it's not like you're actually shorting 824 00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:18,279 Speaker 13: treasuries or something like that. 825 00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,480 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee answering a question that I'm 826 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,719 Speaker 2: not sure actually I even asked is a question. But 827 00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:28,520 Speaker 2: well done, Mike, Thank you so much. As always, we 828 00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:31,040 Speaker 2: really appreciate it. Of course, Mike the expert on all 829 00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,239 Speaker 2: things monetary policy, but we want to talk to an 830 00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,960 Speaker 2: expert now on fiscal policy, because, as we've talked about 831 00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:39,960 Speaker 2: already on this program, it's going to be a battle 832 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,560 Speaker 2: over appropriations, and it's going to start in just a 833 00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,280 Speaker 2: few days when Congress returns to Washington after a multi 834 00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:50,080 Speaker 2: week holiday break. The issue on the table figuring out 835 00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:55,359 Speaker 2: these twelve appropriations bills by January nineteenth or February second, 836 00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,600 Speaker 2: depending on what department of the government you are talking about, 837 00:41:58,640 --> 00:42:01,279 Speaker 2: and depending on who you ask within the government, they 838 00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,120 Speaker 2: may be feeling more or less confident about the ability 839 00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:06,640 Speaker 2: for a shutdown to be averted. Shalanda Young, who's the 840 00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,120 Speaker 2: White House's budget director, said this morning, I'm typically optimistic. 841 00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,440 Speaker 2: Don't mark me down as optimistic this morning. So how 842 00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,000 Speaker 2: optimistic is our fiscal policy expert, Bill Hoagland. 843 00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:19,560 Speaker 4: He is the. 844 00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:24,240 Speaker 2: Senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center. So Bill, 845 00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 2: how are you feeling? 846 00:42:27,680 --> 00:42:31,799 Speaker 14: Thank you, Kylie. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic. 847 00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:32,399 Speaker 12: How's that. 848 00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:37,439 Speaker 14: There's good news coming out literally in the last few 849 00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 14: hours as it relates to an agreement being reached on 850 00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:46,000 Speaker 14: what we call the top line for appropriations. It is 851 00:42:46,120 --> 00:42:50,080 Speaker 14: critical for the appropriation process to work the twelve bills 852 00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,840 Speaker 14: to get them completed, that we have an agreement on 853 00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:57,720 Speaker 14: the overall level of discretionary spending, both defense and non defense. 854 00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:01,719 Speaker 14: And there is very strong indications that we are very 855 00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:05,880 Speaker 14: very close to getting to that agreement here in the 856 00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:09,920 Speaker 14: next It may be even announced later today or early tomorrow. 857 00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,919 Speaker 14: The importance of that is once you know the top line, 858 00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,560 Speaker 14: which we haven't had an agreement since we thought we 859 00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,799 Speaker 14: had the agreement way back with the Fiscal Responsibility Act 860 00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,320 Speaker 14: back last June, but of course we went through a 861 00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:26,239 Speaker 14: number of iterations since then. But now we're back to 862 00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:29,920 Speaker 14: where we should have been back last year. We have 863 00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,399 Speaker 14: an agreement that's being reached. It appears to be very 864 00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:37,120 Speaker 14: close to this Fiscal Responsibility Act agreement last spring, and 865 00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:41,160 Speaker 14: that will allow then the appropriators to move forward by 866 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:46,239 Speaker 14: completing their bills. Quite frankly, I do believe it's very difficult, though, 867 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,480 Speaker 14: let's be fair, Kayley. I think it's going to be 868 00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:52,600 Speaker 14: very difficult in eight days, essentially eight days, to get 869 00:43:52,640 --> 00:43:55,239 Speaker 14: the agreement as it relates to the first trunch, which 870 00:43:55,280 --> 00:44:01,440 Speaker 14: is Department Energy, Agriculture, Housing, and Urban Development, and Transportation. 871 00:44:03,200 --> 00:44:06,000 Speaker 2: So bill, even if we do to your point about 872 00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,040 Speaker 2: the difficulty of achieving all of this in such a 873 00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:10,919 Speaker 2: short period of time, even if you have the top 874 00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,640 Speaker 2: line figures now potentially knowing how hard it was to 875 00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,160 Speaker 2: come to that in the first place, how much harder 876 00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,360 Speaker 2: is it to figure out everything underneath, how that money 877 00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,680 Speaker 2: is actually divvied up within these programs. 878 00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:27,600 Speaker 14: Well well, of course, the Senate committees have been working, 879 00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,000 Speaker 14: staff have been working for some time. The House too, 880 00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:33,120 Speaker 14: It'll take some time. I guess what I want to 881 00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,040 Speaker 14: say is I think that for those that first round 882 00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:40,839 Speaker 14: of four eight major agencies that has a deadline here 883 00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:44,920 Speaker 14: of January the nineteenth, my guess is it's going to 884 00:44:45,200 --> 00:44:50,640 Speaker 14: require them to extend that agreement maybe into the second tranch, 885 00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,839 Speaker 14: which is February the second, and I think they can 886 00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,400 Speaker 14: get that all done within that timeframe. Yes, there's a 887 00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,440 Speaker 14: lot of decisions being made, but I think a lot 888 00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,200 Speaker 14: has been done behind the scenes. So I am, as 889 00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:05,040 Speaker 14: I say, cautiously optimistic that will not have a shutdown 890 00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:09,080 Speaker 14: for those four agencies, but it will require that they're 891 00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:14,400 Speaker 14: an agreement to extend that first trunch the January nineteenth 892 00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,480 Speaker 14: day two probably to February the second, with all the 893 00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,360 Speaker 14: other eight bills. 894 00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,960 Speaker 2: Would that extension count though as a short term cr 895 00:45:24,040 --> 00:45:26,480 Speaker 2: of some kind because Speaker Johnson said he wasn't going 896 00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,520 Speaker 2: to do any more of those, But is that, frankly, 897 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:29,840 Speaker 2: his only way out of this pickle. 898 00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,799 Speaker 14: I think it's either that or a government shutdown for 899 00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:37,560 Speaker 14: those four agencies. So I believe that once we get 900 00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:41,960 Speaker 14: to or the billy up to the bar, so to speaking, 901 00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,839 Speaker 14: you're going to be able to work out an agreement. Yes, 902 00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,160 Speaker 14: we all, we make a lot of announcements, and I 903 00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:50,160 Speaker 14: think we'll we'll find out here. Now, I want to 904 00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:52,680 Speaker 14: make very clear there's one other issue here. This is 905 00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:55,400 Speaker 14: just the funding for the fiscal year that we're currently in, 906 00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,839 Speaker 14: fiscal year twenty four. This has nothing to do with 907 00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:02,600 Speaker 14: the supplemental request that's still pending one hundred and six 908 00:46:02,640 --> 00:46:06,720 Speaker 14: billion dollars. This is what has to do with Ukraine Israel, 909 00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:14,880 Speaker 14: the issues around the border. That's still a separate issue 910 00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:15,880 Speaker 14: to be debated. 911 00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:18,680 Speaker 2: Well, I'm so glad you brought that up, because I'm 912 00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:21,480 Speaker 2: not really sure the border issue is separate to the 913 00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:25,760 Speaker 2: appropriations process anymore. The rhetoric we're hearing from Republican members 914 00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,880 Speaker 2: of Congress is shut down the border, shut down the government. 915 00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:31,600 Speaker 2: How much more complicated does this all become if the 916 00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:35,040 Speaker 2: border security deal is now what is contingent upon keeping 917 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:35,920 Speaker 2: the government funded? 918 00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,399 Speaker 14: Well, then that's a new element here. As I say, 919 00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,480 Speaker 14: I've heard this shut down government are shut down the border. 920 00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:46,120 Speaker 14: I think that's a little bit overstating it once again, 921 00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:49,520 Speaker 14: a little bit dramatic in their statements, because again we're 922 00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,600 Speaker 14: talking about first of all, funding the basic government and 923 00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:57,719 Speaker 14: then the issues associated with that emergency supplemental. I think 924 00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:01,320 Speaker 14: you can negotiate the emergency supplemental and the border issues 925 00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:07,000 Speaker 14: separate apart from the basic funding of the Department of Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, 926 00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:10,560 Speaker 14: and Housing. I think those are really separate issues, and 927 00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,520 Speaker 14: I believe that the appropriators and the leadership at the 928 00:47:14,600 --> 00:47:16,239 Speaker 14: end of the day will separate the two out. 929 00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,200 Speaker 2: Okay, So even if the issues are separated, though, how 930 00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,560 Speaker 2: hard is it going to be to find bipartisan compromise 931 00:47:23,640 --> 00:47:27,520 Speaker 2: on this issue? This is an issue that reforms have 932 00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:30,880 Speaker 2: evaded Congress for literally decades. Bill, So what makes this 933 00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:32,480 Speaker 2: time different? Is it really different? 934 00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:33,960 Speaker 9: You know? 935 00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,800 Speaker 14: No, I think you're absolutely correct, Kayley, that the issue 936 00:47:36,840 --> 00:47:40,520 Speaker 14: associated with the emergency supplemental that's separate apart from the 937 00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:44,000 Speaker 14: basic funding. I think that is going to still continue 938 00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,040 Speaker 14: to be very contingious whether or not they can reach 939 00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:50,440 Speaker 14: an agreement here. I think it's still very problematic on 940 00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:55,200 Speaker 14: that score. I do think that there is a real 941 00:47:56,040 --> 00:48:01,759 Speaker 14: desire on the part of particularly the members in the 942 00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:05,880 Speaker 14: Senate to find a solution here, and it will not Listen, 943 00:48:05,920 --> 00:48:09,120 Speaker 14: let's be honest, even if we could find some improvements 944 00:48:09,200 --> 00:48:11,640 Speaker 14: upon the border, whether it be through the parole issues 945 00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:16,439 Speaker 14: or other issues down there, I do think that we're 946 00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,640 Speaker 14: not going to solve all the problems of the border 947 00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,640 Speaker 14: in this one particular bill. But one thing it's important 948 00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:24,719 Speaker 14: is to keep in mind that that Emergency supplemental was 949 00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:29,360 Speaker 14: to provide additional funding to the border exactly for what 950 00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,680 Speaker 14: is needed in terms of the border judges and things 951 00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,680 Speaker 14: of that nature, and the border guards and all that 952 00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:38,360 Speaker 14: which are necessary to strengthen the border and protect the 953 00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,719 Speaker 14: border here. So again, I want to keep I want 954 00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:43,480 Speaker 14: to keep trying to keep the two separate from the 955 00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:46,960 Speaker 14: basic fundings of the of the federal government for fiscal 956 00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:51,799 Speaker 14: year twenty four. But you're absolute correct. I think it's 957 00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,760 Speaker 14: going to be very difficult, and we're not there yet clearly, 958 00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:59,239 Speaker 14: but at least the United States Senator and a bipartisan 959 00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:03,040 Speaker 14: matter is trying to work overtime to find a solution. Now, 960 00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,200 Speaker 14: whether even if the Senate could get an agreement, whether 961 00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:09,480 Speaker 14: that would be acceptable, and the House is still very 962 00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,960 Speaker 14: much up in the air, as the new Speaker has 963 00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:15,480 Speaker 14: interjected himself and says that he wants to negotiate directly 964 00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:18,600 Speaker 14: with the White House. That will further delay any kind 965 00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:21,360 Speaker 14: of agreement going forward on the border. 966 00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,200 Speaker 2: So, Bill, let's talk about the new speaker. Can Mike 967 00:49:26,280 --> 00:49:28,759 Speaker 2: Johnson get through all of these different fights and still 968 00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:30,600 Speaker 2: have the gavel in hand on the other. 969 00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:31,800 Speaker 4: End of him. 970 00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:36,080 Speaker 14: I have to believe it's gonna be tough for him. 971 00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:39,800 Speaker 14: He's gonna have to he's jail, I say he's learning 972 00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:42,480 Speaker 14: on the job. At the same time, I do think 973 00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:46,560 Speaker 14: that he will retain his speakership. I don't think the 974 00:49:46,640 --> 00:49:49,400 Speaker 14: United States House wants to go through the same exercise 975 00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:55,040 Speaker 14: they went through last October in terms of finding a 976 00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:58,040 Speaker 14: new speaker at this point, going into a political year, 977 00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:02,239 Speaker 14: an election year, and where questions are being raised about 978 00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:05,839 Speaker 14: whether the leadership in the House can whether Republicans can 979 00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,120 Speaker 14: retain the leadership in the House. I'm not a political 980 00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,000 Speaker 14: pundit in that sense, but I do think the last 981 00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:12,680 Speaker 14: thing you want is, first of all, to have a 982 00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:15,320 Speaker 14: government shutdown or to have another fight over the speaker 983 00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:19,040 Speaker 14: in the United States House of Representative, if Republicans want 984 00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,480 Speaker 14: to retain the House in the next one hundred and 985 00:50:21,520 --> 00:50:22,840 Speaker 14: nineteenth Congress. 986 00:50:24,120 --> 00:50:26,239 Speaker 2: And finally, Bill, Just in my final moment with you, 987 00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:28,000 Speaker 2: I want to return to something you said at the 988 00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:31,439 Speaker 2: top of our conversation. The idea that these negotiators over 989 00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:33,680 Speaker 2: the deal are indeed close. Is that something you've heard 990 00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:36,520 Speaker 2: directly from the White House or from the people in 991 00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:42,120 Speaker 2: the room. And how close exactly is close? Are we there? 992 00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:45,000 Speaker 14: It's hard to say this. We're talking about an agreement 993 00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:49,480 Speaker 14: of spending. That's about one point six trillion dollars. I 994 00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:53,080 Speaker 14: am under the impression we're two billion dollars away from 995 00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:57,600 Speaker 14: an agreement that's coming from within the halls of the 996 00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:58,520 Speaker 14: Congress today. 997 00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,520 Speaker 2: All right, Bill Hoagland, it's always great to have you 998 00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,480 Speaker 2: on the program. Thank you so much for providing this insight. 999 00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:08,160 Speaker 2: He is, of course, the executive vice president of the 1000 00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,760 Speaker 2: Bipartisan Policy Center and spent a lot of time walking 1001 00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,879 Speaker 2: those halls of Congress. I'm sure he still does. Really 1002 00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:17,600 Speaker 2: great to have him. 1003 00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:19,560 Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. 1004 00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:22,920 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and. 1005 00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,520 Speaker 6: Anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 1006 00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,319 Speaker 6: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one 1007 00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,880 Speaker 12: Pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.