WEBVTT - Trumpism Is Here to Stay

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<v Speaker 1>You wouldn't bank your future on someone you don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>CNB dot com. I'm Carol Masser, our cover story this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Whatever the GOP one stood for voters today associated with

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<v Speaker 1>one thing, Donald Trump. Republican politicians at every level have

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<v Speaker 1>learned that the path to success in the Trump era

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<v Speaker 1>entails praising and emulating the president, and November thirds better

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<v Speaker 1>than expected results are unlikely to drive a reform movement

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<v Speaker 1>with the GOP even without Trump as president, Trump is

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<v Speaker 1>m is here to stay. The biggest wild card in

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<v Speaker 1>the GOP's future is Trump himself and what path he

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<v Speaker 1>chooses next. So don't be shocked to see Trump if

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<v Speaker 1>he ends up losing, turn around and immediately file to

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<v Speaker 1>run for president again. Trump is um isn't going away.

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<v Speaker 1>Neither is Trump. If he's defeated this time, he could

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<v Speaker 1>even run again. In twenty twenty four by Joshua Green.

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<v Speaker 1>As the ballot counting drags on at press time, President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's fate looks grim but is still unsettled. The fate

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<v Speaker 1>of Trump is um, on the other hand, is clear.

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<v Speaker 1>It isn't going away, and Trump himself may remain in

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<v Speaker 1>the political spotlight even if he loses. As the electoral

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<v Speaker 1>college battle extends into overtime. The results already highlight the

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<v Speaker 1>ways in which Trump's four years in office have imprinted

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<v Speaker 1>his stamp on the American political map. Even if he

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<v Speaker 1>squeaks through with just enough support to secure another term,

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<v Speaker 1>He's changed US politics in a way that is perilous

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<v Speaker 1>for the Republican Party and will be difficult to undo.

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<v Speaker 1>Whatever the GOP once stood for, voters today associated with

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<v Speaker 1>one thing, Donald Trump. Democrats went into the election believing

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<v Speaker 1>this would be an unalloyed disaster for republicans fortunes. It wasn't.

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<v Speaker 1>Instead of a blue wave, the result was a royaling

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<v Speaker 1>cross current that drove GOP gains in the House of

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<v Speaker 1>Representatives and limited Democrats advances in the Senate, even as

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<v Speaker 1>it shifted key states in the electoral map to Joe Biden.

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<v Speaker 1>The clearest sign of why that's a problem for Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>comes in the races that have been called. The election

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<v Speaker 1>results confirmed the movement of suburban voters away from the GOP,

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<v Speaker 1>even though it retreated in some places from Regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>the outcome, the realignment of the suburbs from red to

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<v Speaker 1>blue has picked up astonishing speed during Trump's tumultuous tenure.

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<v Speaker 1>In Even while losing to Trump, Hillary Clinton bested Barack

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<v Speaker 1>Obama's performance in the suburb heavy states of Arizona and Texas.

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<v Speaker 1>Voters outsted Republican incumbents in suburban areas around Dallas, Fort Worth, Denver,

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<v Speaker 1>the District of Columbia, Northern Virginia, Minneapolis, New York, Northern

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey, and Philadelphia, handing Democrats control of the House

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<v Speaker 1>of Representatives. That eroding Republican support, especially among white college

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<v Speaker 1>educated professionals, looked to be a bad omen for Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>but no one could be certain. In it wasn't really

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<v Speaker 1>apparent how unpopular Trump was in those suburbs because there

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<v Speaker 1>was no presidential race that was being tested on the ballot,

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<v Speaker 1>says David Wasserman of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. On

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<v Speaker 1>November three, there was, and the verdict wasn't great. The

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<v Speaker 1>suburban revolt against Trump and the GOP held up in

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<v Speaker 1>most of the area's Democrats won two years ago, but

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<v Speaker 1>it didn't extend to the smaller red leaning metro areas

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<v Speaker 1>such as Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and St. Louis that they hoped

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<v Speaker 1>to add this cycle or reach house districts in Texas

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<v Speaker 1>they'd expected to gain, and the blue wave from eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>ebbed costing Democrat seats in suburban districts like Oklahoma's fifth

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<v Speaker 1>and South Carolina's first, where Republicans regained control after the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eighteen election. A popular refrain among Republican strategists was

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<v Speaker 1>that the suburban voters may not love Trump, but they

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<v Speaker 1>were happy to cast a ballot for their local Republican representative.

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<v Speaker 1>At least in red states. That still appears to be true. Nevertheless,

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<v Speaker 1>over four years, Trump has driven the Republican Party to

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<v Speaker 1>near extinction in suburbs across America because most voters there

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<v Speaker 1>find him repellent. This trend is most pronounced in the

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<v Speaker 1>areas of the country that are growing the fastest, places

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<v Speaker 1>such as Arizona's Maricopa County, which encompasses the Phoenix suburbs.

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<v Speaker 1>In twelve, Mitt Romney beat Obama there by forty seven

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<v Speaker 1>thousand votes. In Trump edged Clinton by this year, when

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<v Speaker 1>all the ballots are counted, Biden could cement Arizona, a

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<v Speaker 1>bedrock of the Republican electoral coalition for decades, as a

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<v Speaker 1>new battleground state. Republicans can't build a solid governing coalition

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<v Speaker 1>without first figuring out how to fix their suburban problem.

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<v Speaker 1>It's simple to say, harder to do, says Kirk Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>the Republican former speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives

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<v Speaker 1>who represented a suburban Phoenix district. People in the suburbs

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<v Speaker 1>want government to work. They want it to be effective

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<v Speaker 1>and to solve problems. They don't want to be associated

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<v Speaker 1>with anything that has even a tinge of racism. For

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<v Speaker 1>the GOP to win them back is going to require

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<v Speaker 1>candidates who speak to issues that they care about and

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<v Speaker 1>do it in a way that is civil and smart.

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<v Speaker 1>But for the past four years, all the momentum has

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<v Speaker 1>gone the other way. Republican politicians at every level have

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<v Speaker 1>learned that the path to success in the Trump era

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<v Speaker 1>entails praising and emulating the president, and November three is

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<v Speaker 1>better than expected. Results are unlikely to drive a reform

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<v Speaker 1>movement breaking away from him now, even if he loses

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<v Speaker 1>maybe impossible. Currently, many Republican voters evince more excitement about

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<v Speaker 1>Qwan on the pro Trump, anti Democratic conspiracy theory than

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<v Speaker 1>for returning to the sober competence of Amit Romney. Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>approval rating with GOP voters hovers round, and the moderates

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<v Speaker 1>and never Trump Conservatives who oppose him have either left

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<v Speaker 1>or been driven out of the party. There isn't an

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<v Speaker 1>obvious candidate to steer the GOP back to the center.

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<v Speaker 1>Recent history already includes one attempt at broad scale rehabilitation

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<v Speaker 1>that failed. After Romney's loss in the presidential race, the

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<v Speaker 1>Republican National Committee conducted an autopsy of what had driven

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<v Speaker 1>the loss and how the party could recover. It's conclusion

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<v Speaker 1>that the GOP should embrace immigration reform and present a softer,

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<v Speaker 1>more welcoming image to attract minorities, millennials, and LGBTQ people

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<v Speaker 1>was roundly ignored. Instead, Trump emerged as the galvanizing figure,

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<v Speaker 1>yanking the party in the opposite direction. It's a role

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<v Speaker 1>he seems unlikely to yield regardless of this year's outcome.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see any appetite for an autopsy, not for

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<v Speaker 1>the old one or for a new one, says Tim Miller,

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<v Speaker 1>a former top strategist for Jeb Bush. I think there

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<v Speaker 1>will be a very slim minority of pencil heads in

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<v Speaker 1>d C and a handful of people in Congress who

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<v Speaker 1>want to look at how the party can revamp and

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<v Speaker 1>broaden its appeal. But all the incentives in the small

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<v Speaker 1>dollar donor world, on Fox News and on Twitter still

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<v Speaker 1>point toward Trump's formula of doubling down on white grievance,

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<v Speaker 1>owning the Libs, and pushing anti elite, populous nonsense. There's

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<v Speaker 1>just no appetite for reform. A party that remains in

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<v Speaker 1>thrall to Trump's peculiar obsessions, antipathy to masks, Hunter, Biden's laptop,

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris's alleged socialism isn't likely to have an easy

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<v Speaker 1>time coaxing back the voters it's driven away. Whether Republicans

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<v Speaker 1>can correct course and appeal to suburban women and others

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<v Speaker 1>who have switched over to the Democrats will depend on

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<v Speaker 1>how the party comes to understand its plight. Even a

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<v Speaker 1>Trump loss doesn't ensure that the GOP will embark on

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<v Speaker 1>the process of making the necessary adjustments. When a party loses,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when it loses big, the question is what becomes

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<v Speaker 1>the dominant interpretation within the party of why they lost,

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<v Speaker 1>says David Hopkins, a professor of political science at Boston College.

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<v Speaker 1>When Democrats lost four years ago, the dominant interpretation they

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<v Speaker 1>took away was don't nominate a woman With Trump. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the question will become was it a personal disaster

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<v Speaker 1>particular to the candidate, or will the interpretation be that

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<v Speaker 1>Trump was a martyr to the left, destroyed by the media,

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<v Speaker 1>the deep state, the phony mail in ballots, China, and

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<v Speaker 1>so on. And the lesson is to fight even harder

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<v Speaker 1>and go further than he did. The biggest wild card

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<v Speaker 1>in the GOP's future is Trump himself and what path

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<v Speaker 1>he chooses next. If he loses, he stands to be

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<v Speaker 1>robbed at the spotlight. He's commanded with punishing consistency since

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<v Speaker 1>he became a candidate five years ago. For someone who

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<v Speaker 1>craves attention and relevancy the way Trump does, that has

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<v Speaker 1>to be a painful thought. But there's a simple way

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<v Speaker 1>to avoid oblivion. He could turn around and immediately file

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<v Speaker 1>to run for president again in twenty twenty four. Back

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty seventeen, he filed to run for re election

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<v Speaker 1>on the day he was inaugurated. Doing that would guarantee

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<v Speaker 1>him a platform, since he has enough support to credibly

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<v Speaker 1>pursue the nomination, and would present a daunting obstacle for

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<v Speaker 1>any other Republican hopefuls. Defining Trump's base is tricky, but

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<v Speaker 1>there's a clear group of die hards, says John Sides,

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<v Speaker 1>a political scientist at Vanderbilt University who helps oversee the

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<v Speaker 1>Democracy Fund u c L a Nationscape poll. We've been

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<v Speaker 1>interviewing the same people over time, and those who have

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<v Speaker 1>a consistently high view of Trump is maybe twenty of respondents.

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<v Speaker 1>That's more support than any other Republican has. Declaring his

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<v Speaker 1>candidacy could also appeal to Trump for reasons that have

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<v Speaker 1>nothing to do with wanting to get back to the

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<v Speaker 1>White House. He has privately expressed anxiety to allies about

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<v Speaker 1>scrutiny from prosecutors in New York and possible federal probes

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<v Speaker 1>into his business empire that could arise once he leaves office.

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<v Speaker 1>One Democratic lawyer notes that if Trump were to lose

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<v Speaker 1>and declare him self a candidate for four, he could

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<v Speaker 1>claim that any investigation was politically motivated and designed to

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<v Speaker 1>thwart his return to the presidency. Some Trump allies envisioned

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<v Speaker 1>no scenario where he willingly leaves the stage regardless of

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<v Speaker 1>the election outcome, a possibility that would greatly complicate the

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<v Speaker 1>party's effort to move beyond him and renew its appeal

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<v Speaker 1>to the broad swaths of the electorate that have defected

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<v Speaker 1>to Democrats. Only two things can happen. Trump wins or

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<v Speaker 1>it's stolen, says Steve Bannon, Trump's chief strategist in the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Presumed Republican presidential hopefuls Josh Holly, Tom Cotton, Nicky Haley,

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<v Speaker 1>and Mike Pompeo may not realize it, but they're running

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<v Speaker 1>for VP on Trump's ticket. In Without a crystal ball,

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<v Speaker 1>no one can know if Trump will return to the

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<v Speaker 1>White House next year or in the future, or if

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<v Speaker 1>he'll leaven try. Bannon has added incentive to tout Trump's

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<v Speaker 1>strength and belittle his rivals, since he was indicted for

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<v Speaker 1>fraud in August, and would ben of it from a

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<v Speaker 1>Trump pardon. But one prediction from him seems like a

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<v Speaker 1>safe bet and one sure to induce Migraines and Republican

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<v Speaker 1>leaders eager to move on from Trump. He's not going away,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's the Bloomberg Business Week cover story this week.

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<v Speaker 1>Check out more in the current issue of Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week Magazine. It's on newsstands, it's online at Bloomberg dot com,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course always on the Bloomberg I'm Carol Masser,

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<v Speaker 1>and be sure to also check out Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Radio that is live Monday through Friday starting at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Wall Street Time on Bloomberg Radio, and catch our

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<v Speaker 1>daily podcast feed, and also check us out on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 1>How is remote work impacting work life balance and employee

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<v Speaker 1>barrel without regular commuting and socializing? The concept of burnout

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<v Speaker 1>has taken center stage. Joy Tammy Irwin, CEO of Verizon

0:11:44.600 --> 0:11:48.079
<v Speaker 1>Business and Joey Fitzgerald, Chief Diversity and Inclusion Officer in

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<v Speaker 1>Eli Lilly on November twelfth at the Bloomberg Breakaway CEO

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<v Speaker 1>town Hall to hear how they are bringing strong leadership

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<v Speaker 1>into focus and ensuring employees are getting the support they

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<v Speaker 1>need during these unprecedented times. Chester Now at Blueberg Live

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. Slash the New Normal