Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at
Speaker 1: the Volume. Happy Monday, everybody. I hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys had an incredible weekend. Round two coverage of the
Speaker 1: NBA Playoffs. Here at Hoops Tonight is brought to you
Speaker 1: by Chase Freedom Unlimited. How do you cash back? Today?
Speaker 1: We're gonna be doing our Chase three point segment like
Speaker 1: we do every Monday. I'm gonna focus on three major
Speaker 1: adjustments that I expect in three particular series. We're gonna
Speaker 1: hit Warriors, Lakers, Suns, Nuggets, and Celtics Sixers. You guys
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Speaker 1: podcasts under Hoops Tonight, all right, let's start number one,
Speaker 1: Warriors Lakers who will play with more force? Now, we
Speaker 1: talk a lot about tactical adjustments on this show. In
Speaker 1: this particular series on the Lakers side of things, that's
Speaker 1: been switching Jared Vanderbilt onto Draymond Green so that they
Speaker 1: could switch the Steph Draymond pick and roll, Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: coming much higher out of his drop coverage with active
Speaker 1: hands to dissuade the pocket pass, getting him touches on
Speaker 1: the move in the Lakers offense so that he can
Speaker 1: attack downhill at Draymond Green, and just in general playing
Speaker 1: with force and the reason why I want to talk
Speaker 1: about force Draymond Green himself in his Game three A
Speaker 1: podcast for the Volume, And I actually tweeted this link
Speaker 1: out so you can see the specific quote from Draymond
Speaker 1: Green that I'm talking about if you guys go to
Speaker 1: my Twitter feed. But he talked about like, hey, like,
Speaker 1: who's gonna play with more force? Like the Lakers played
Speaker 1: with more force in Game three, the Warriors played with
Speaker 1: more force in Game two, he said, And I thought
Speaker 1: it was a really well put point by Draymond Green.
Speaker 1: He goes, he goes, the biggest adjustment that any NBA
Speaker 1: team can make in the playoffs is to play with
Speaker 1: more force. Now, what does that mean? That means that
Speaker 1: everything you do is harder you're sliding your feet better. Defensively,
Speaker 1: you're crashing the boards harder. You're running the floor harder.
Speaker 1: In transition on offense, when you make a cut, you
Speaker 1: cut harder. When you set a screen, you set the
Speaker 1: screen with more physicality. When you drive the ball to
Speaker 1: the rim, you drive the ball to the rim with
Speaker 1: purpose and force. It essentially is just all of the
Speaker 1: physical exertion of the game. Who wins that battle. I
Speaker 1: love the tactical side of things. I think it's super interesting.
Speaker 1: You guys know that we focus a lot on that
Speaker 1: in this show. But no matter what, every coverage can
Speaker 1: work as long as it's executed properly. And execution is
Speaker 1: a lot of the mental side of things and being
Speaker 1: in the right spots and knowing your job. But it's
Speaker 1: also doing your job right. Like a pick and roll,
Speaker 1: for instance, where we set a high ball screen, the
Speaker 1: big man rolls to the basket and a shooter relocates
Speaker 1: to the top. If the big man doesn't set a
Speaker 1: hard enough screen on the ball handler, he's not gonna
Speaker 1: get separation. Plays blown up the Spain pick and roll
Speaker 1: shooter relocating from the basket up to the top of
Speaker 1: the key if he doesn't cut hard and with purpose
Speaker 1: and get his feet set ready to shoot, he won't
Speaker 1: be able to make them pay for being left open,
Speaker 1: and the play can cease to function. If the ball
Speaker 1: handler doesn't set up his man for the ball screen
Speaker 1: properly to get him caught on it, the whole play
Speaker 1: can blow up again. It's less about the coverage, is
Speaker 1: less about the tactical side of things, and more about
Speaker 1: the players just doing their jobs harder, faster, stronger, and
Speaker 1: more in tune with what the game plan asks. Right.
Speaker 1: And you know, it's funny because that one of the
Speaker 1: biggest plot lines of this particular series has been the
Speaker 1: foul line and getting just the officiating in general. And
Speaker 1: in the first game, I thought the Lakers played with
Speaker 1: more force. They got to the free throw line a
Speaker 1: ton the Warriors did it. I had a lot of
Speaker 1: Warriors fans go like, hey, you said the Warriors got
Speaker 1: a better whistle in Game two, Why is it that
Speaker 1: they were even in free throws? That's play style, like
Speaker 1: naturally with the way these teams play, with the Lakers
Speaker 1: having a couple of guys, and guys like Dennis Schroeder
Speaker 1: or Austin Reeves or are gifted at drawing fouls, like
Speaker 1: foul grifting. Danzel Russell, I'd throw in that group two.
Speaker 1: He's really good at like dribbling and extending that right
Speaker 1: arm and waiting for you to grab that arm and
Speaker 1: then going up into his shot knowing he's gonna get
Speaker 1: a foul. Now, the NBA has fought against those things
Speaker 1: by making it so that if you do an unnatural
Speaker 1: shooting motion, it's just a regular foul and not a
Speaker 1: shooting foul. But hey, you get five thouls in a quarter,
Speaker 1: you're going to the foul line. They've been able to
Speaker 1: grift their way into free throw attempts. Then Lebron James
Speaker 1: and Anthony Davis, Dennischroedder as well just playing with a
Speaker 1: ton of downhill force attacking the rim. Those things combined
Speaker 1: to make them throughout this entire season one of the
Speaker 1: very best teams at getting to the foul and that's
Speaker 1: been consistent throughout the year. The Warriors totally different type
Speaker 1: of offensive style. They take a ton of off the
Speaker 1: dribble and movement jump shots. Those are just far less
Speaker 1: likely to send you to the foul line, and they
Speaker 1: don't really rely on foul drifting that much. It's not
Speaker 1: really in the identity of any of their players, and
Speaker 1: so the Warriors all season long were a team that
Speaker 1: didn't get to the free throw line very often. So
Speaker 1: when we see the free throw dynamic oscillate in this series,
Speaker 1: it's going to go from being more even where both
Speaker 1: teams kind of attempt the same amount of free throws
Speaker 1: to the landslide Laker victories where they attempt twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five to thirty more free throws than the Warriors. That's
Speaker 1: just the dynamic. You're not going to see a game
Speaker 1: in this series where the Warriors attempt thirty five free
Speaker 1: throws and the Lakers attempts ten. That is physically impossible
Speaker 1: because of their play styles. But in my opinion, the
Speaker 1: whole like home court back and forth thing only plays
Speaker 1: a tiny role in officiating. What really plays a role
Speaker 1: in officiating is playing with force. So, for instance, if I,
Speaker 1: as the defender, am not playing with as much force,
Speaker 1: not sliding my feet as well, not anticipating things before
Speaker 1: they happen, not being as dialed in and locked in,
Speaker 1: my rotations are a bit slower. I'm slower fighting over screens.
Speaker 1: I am going to be out of position now, if
Speaker 1: I am out of position as a defender and the
Speaker 1: offensive player is playing with force, setting hard screens, cutting
Speaker 1: with force, driving with force, pushing in transition with force,
Speaker 1: they're going to be coming at me while I am
Speaker 1: out of position, which is going to force me to
Speaker 1: either concede an open layup or to commit fouls. I
Speaker 1: use the example of the two plays where Draymond Green fell.
Speaker 1: His final foul is fifth foul. I disagreed with the
Speaker 1: one where Draymond Green got knocked over by AD. Thought
Speaker 1: that was a bad call, and like we talked about,
Speaker 1: bad calls happened in NBA games. But the two before
Speaker 1: that where Draymond tried to take a charge, I thought
Speaker 1: he was just a second late because AD is playing
Speaker 1: with a certain amount of force and Draymond didn't quite
Speaker 1: match it. That same dynamic flips in Game four. Draymond
Speaker 1: moved this feed a little bit quicker, anticipates it a
Speaker 1: tiny bit faster, Anthony Davis not quite bringing the same
Speaker 1: level of downhill force. Now he's in position instead of
Speaker 1: out of position, and that is a charge. That's kind
Speaker 1: of the dynamic that I'm talking about. Now, playing with
Speaker 1: force is going to determine what the whistle is. Laker
Speaker 1: played with more force in Game one, shot a ton
Speaker 1: more free throws. Warriors played with a ton more force
Speaker 1: in Game two, much more even free throw dynamic. Game three,
Speaker 1: Lakers play with a ton more force. They dominate the
Speaker 1: game in the at the foul line. So why specifically
Speaker 1: does the whistle matter so much in this series? Because
Speaker 1: of the fact that Anthony Davis and what he's capable
Speaker 1: of as a defender, has just about erased the Warriors
Speaker 1: half court offense, not completely erase, but in this playoff setting,
Speaker 1: he's done a ton of damage to the Warriors half
Speaker 1: court offense. Right, But the Lakers have one of the
Speaker 1: worst transition defenses in the league, if I believe they
Speaker 1: were like twenty ninth or something. As you're off to
Speaker 1: look it up and I'll bring it up next time
Speaker 1: we talk about it. But that means that the Warriors
Speaker 1: have an infinitely higher chance of scoring against the Lakers
Speaker 1: when they get out in transition versus when they're attacking
Speaker 1: their set defense in the half court. So if the
Speaker 1: Lakers can get to the foul line thirty times in
Speaker 1: a game, and I think they were almost forty times
Speaker 1: in Game three, if they get to the foul line
Speaker 1: a ton. Every single time they do that, they get
Speaker 1: to set their defense, whereas if they don't send them
Speaker 1: to the foul line, they can push on every single
Speaker 1: miss and even a made shot. While it is easier
Speaker 1: to set your defense in a made shot situation, it
Speaker 1: is harder to set your defense in a maide shot
Speaker 1: situation than a made free throw situation, because in the
Speaker 1: free throw situation, I've already got three defenders back. They're
Speaker 1: already back. The other two guys you know, they're usually
Speaker 1: your guard. They're usually put guards in there so they
Speaker 1: can pick up the ball handler right after the inbound
Speaker 1: the ball, like your defense is already set. But the Warriors,
Speaker 1: if they stay out of foul trouble, can push on
Speaker 1: misses and push on makes and have a much higher
Speaker 1: chance of catching the Lakers before Anthony Davis is prepared
Speaker 1: to blow up everything they do offensively. So when I
Speaker 1: say who will play with more force is the deciding
Speaker 1: factor in the series, it's because whoever plays with more
Speaker 1: force will get a better whistle, and whoever gets a
Speaker 1: better whistle will be able to set their defense better
Speaker 1: and that will end up winning the game. So more
Speaker 1: heading into Game four tonight, I expect this game to
Speaker 1: be very close because I expect the Warriors to play
Speaker 1: with a lot more force than they did in Game three,
Speaker 1: and I expect the Lakers to play with a little
Speaker 1: bit less. I expect it to be close, and it's
Speaker 1: gonna come down to at the end of the game
Speaker 1: Steph Curry trying to create offense against this Laker defense
Speaker 1: and how many stops the Lakers can get to get
Speaker 1: out to get out in transition. As of right now,
Speaker 1: per my prediction before the series of Lakers and six,
Speaker 1: I predict the Lakers will win a tight, close game tonight,
Speaker 1: then go on the road to Golden Satan Game five
Speaker 1: and lose before they close out the series in game six.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to Sun's Nuggets Number two.
Speaker 1: Can Phoenix bring their pull up jump shooting on the road?
Speaker 1: So what did I say before the series? I said
Speaker 1: that this entire series was gonna come down to Kevin
Speaker 1: Durant and Devin Booker and Chris Paul though he ended
Speaker 1: up not playing, but their ability to knock down pull
Speaker 1: up jump shots off the dribble. Right, Kevin Durant doesn't
Speaker 1: get to the rim very much, although he's done a
Speaker 1: much better job in the last two games of attacking
Speaker 1: the rim with as much physicality as he can get
Speaker 1: into the foul line, generating offense there, But both him
Speaker 1: and Devin Booker they're a little thins. So like when
Speaker 1: Denver actually has the paint pack, there's not a whole
Speaker 1: lot they can do to get to the rim or
Speaker 1: force their way for easy shots close to the paint
Speaker 1: the way that Jokic can do on the other end, right, So,
Speaker 1: so much of what they do offensively comes down to
Speaker 1: can they hit these tough, contested pull up jump shots
Speaker 1: and hit enough of them to draw enough attention so
Speaker 1: that you open up opportunities for your teammates on the
Speaker 1: other side of the floor. And in the two losses
Speaker 1: in Denver, they he got a forty one point three
Speaker 1: percent effective field goal percentage on pull up jumpers, not
Speaker 1: very good. They averaged just twenty nine points per game
Speaker 1: on pull up jumpers in those first two games. Then
Speaker 1: they come to Phoenix and they shot fifty nine percent
Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage on pull up jumpers at home,
Speaker 1: averaging forty four points per game, so an eighteen percent
Speaker 1: improvement in effective efficiency and a fifteen point per game
Speaker 1: uh improvement in total volume. So just in the they
Speaker 1: went two to zero in those games that they shot well,
Speaker 1: and they went zero to two in those games that
Speaker 1: they didn't. So, just like we predicted before the series,
Speaker 1: pull up jump shooting for the Suns has been the
Speaker 1: determining factor in this series so far. Now on an
Speaker 1: adjustment level, I thought this was really smart for Mani Williams.
Speaker 1: He stopped going to Tory Craig, and he stopped going
Speaker 1: to Josha Kog and he went heavy on his players
Speaker 1: that can shoot. Guys like Terrence Ross, guys like TJ. Warren,
Speaker 1: Guys like Landry Shammon. Right, Landry sha It was the
Speaker 1: beneficiary of a lot of those double team kickout threes
Speaker 1: in the week's side corner in game four. You know
Speaker 1: KD post up draw that double team swing swing swing
Speaker 1: Landra Shamitt's wide open. You know, Devin Booker comes off
Speaker 1: of pick and roll drags both players swing swing, swinging,
Speaker 1: Landri shammittt wide open three Right. There was even a
Speaker 1: really nice counter from Devin Booker that I liked at
Speaker 1: the end of Game four where Lander Shamott was open
Speaker 1: on the weak side, but Deandreyton just a deep sealed
Speaker 1: on Michael Porter Junior underneath the basket. Devin Booker made
Speaker 1: a really nice feed to Deandreton under the basket and
Speaker 1: made a little hook shot in the lane. Again, that's
Speaker 1: the dynamic. They need to make enough shots that the
Speaker 1: Nuggets sell the farm to stop them so that they
Speaker 1: can get all these wide open shots on the weak side.
Speaker 1: If Devin Booker and KD don't make those shots, if
Speaker 1: they shoot forty one percent effective field goal percentage on
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots, the Nuggets are gonna be much
Speaker 1: more willing to let KCP, Bruce Brown, Aaron Gordon, those
Speaker 1: guys take those defensive assignments more on an island because
Speaker 1: the efficiency isn't quite there for Booker and KD. Then
Speaker 1: you can stay home off the ball at least to
Speaker 1: a better extent and limit some of those off ball shots.
Speaker 1: So everything comes down to those pull up jump shots.
Speaker 1: They have to make them. They have to make enough
Speaker 1: of them to draw the attention. Then they can take
Speaker 1: advantage of all the offensive personnel that they have on
Speaker 1: the floor. And then on the other end of the floor.
Speaker 1: You know that's been what's nice is they struggle to
Speaker 1: contain this Jokic Murray attack. But they were struggling to
Speaker 1: contain it even with Tory Craig in Joshua Kogi. But
Speaker 1: at least at this point, they're giving themselves a chance
Speaker 1: to outscore Denver, which they've now managed to do twice
Speaker 1: in the series. All right, number three Celtics sixers. I
Speaker 1: think that the Celtics have to start devoting extra attention
Speaker 1: to James Harden the way they did to Joel Embi.
Speaker 1: Now this is kind of crosswise to the way you
Speaker 1: used to guard James Harden. Like I've always said over
Speaker 1: the last couple of years, like hey make James Harden
Speaker 1: a score and send throw the kitchen sink at Joel
Speaker 1: and b And the reason why I believed that was
Speaker 1: because James Harden typically over the course of his career
Speaker 1: in series fades late in the series as teams start
Speaker 1: to figure out his ISO moves. But credit to James Harden,
Speaker 1: he has even in this environment where Boston is forcing
Speaker 1: him to play to his weaknesses, he has been able
Speaker 1: to counter that and have success playing to his weaknesses.
Speaker 1: James Harden's typical weakness is he can't score in the
Speaker 1: mid range and he can't go right, and the only
Speaker 1: way he goes right is for that step back three right,
Speaker 1: And so a lot of times James Harden will play
Speaker 1: into that by settling for really tough step back threes
Speaker 1: that he doesn't make as much at the end of series,
Speaker 1: or driving into too much contact at the paint and
Speaker 1: not being able to finish and not being able to
Speaker 1: get to the foul line as the whistle gets tighter
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. That's what used to be the case.
Speaker 1: James Harden has proven in this series that is no
Speaker 1: longer the case. He is getting stronger. He was the
Speaker 1: best player for the Sixers last night. He saved them
Speaker 1: while Joel Embiid was fading on nder, the individual defense
Speaker 1: of Al Horford down the stretch of that game. And
Speaker 1: what was so interesting to me about it is he
Speaker 1: did it all in the mid range, driving to the right,
Speaker 1: so Boston forced him to what he's uncomfortable doing, and
Speaker 1: he succeeded doing that. There was a late play, late
Speaker 1: clock situation isolation on Jason Tatum. Jason Tatum cuts off
Speaker 1: his left hand, he gets back to his right, bumps
Speaker 1: him hard with his shoulder and makes a floater in
Speaker 1: the lane. Then he gets JACLEB. Brown in a late
Speaker 1: clock rescue possession situation, same thing, drives left, gets cut off,
Speaker 1: gets back to his right hand hard step back jumper,
Speaker 1: mid range jump shot, and then the final possession that
Speaker 1: tied it to send it to ot. I want to
Speaker 1: say it was like one to five, one or three
Speaker 1: at this point. He gets the ball in bounds, catches
Speaker 1: al Horford on a switch. It drives hard to the left.
Speaker 1: Al Horford, just like every Celtics defenders done in the
Speaker 1: entire series, cuts him off. James Harden cuts back to
Speaker 1: his right, gets into the lane and makes the floater
Speaker 1: that ties the game. James Harden has proven that he
Speaker 1: has improved his weaknesses enough to be a dominant playoff
Speaker 1: player in the mid to late portions of series in
Speaker 1: a way that he didn't used to be earlier in
Speaker 1: his career. Credit to James Harden. But Boston has to
Speaker 1: do something about it. So tactically, down the stretch of
Speaker 1: that game, Philly had PJ. Tucker on the floor and
Speaker 1: they had Marcus Smart on PJ. Tucker. Now, in those
Speaker 1: last two shots, the Jalen Brown step back, the stepback
Speaker 1: over Jalen Brown and the floater on Al Horford Tatum one.
Speaker 1: They had four shooters on the floor, so I'm not
Speaker 1: sure what you can do there other than concede a
Speaker 1: three point shot to somebody. But when PJ. Tucker was
Speaker 1: on the floor for those last two shots, Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: offered very late help. He's guarding PJ. Tucker sitting in
Speaker 1: the lane as as James Harden is already getting downhill
Speaker 1: and already shed Jalen Brown. Then Marcus Smart comes up
Speaker 1: and offers it a helpless contest on that little jump shot
Speaker 1: in the lane. On the Al Horford shot, same thing,
Speaker 1: just way too late to get involved in the play.
Speaker 1: He was guarding PJ. Tucker in the corner on this one,
Speaker 1: came sprinting in at the end and offered like a
Speaker 1: kind of a meaningless contest after James Harden had already
Speaker 1: got to the peak of his release. In this situation,
Speaker 1: you have to do what you would do to Joel Embiid.
Speaker 1: What happened at the end of the game when Joel
Speaker 1: Embiid had a hard drive on Al Horford at the
Speaker 1: end of ot What did the Celtics do Jaylen Brown
Speaker 1: on James Harden abandoned James Harden to attack. Joel Embiid
Speaker 1: left James Harden of all people wide open, and he
Speaker 1: made the three that ended up being the eventual game winner.
Speaker 1: You have the ability to do that with Marcus Smart
Speaker 1: and yeah, PJ. Tucker is gonna have a free run
Speaker 1: to an offensive rebound or something along those lines, but
Speaker 1: you have the size in athleticism to gang a rebound
Speaker 1: around him, especially with Horford under the rim. So when
Speaker 1: James Harden is going to he's ISOs at the end
Speaker 1: of the game and PJ. Tucker is on the floor,
Speaker 1: I think they need to sell out off of off
Speaker 1: of PJ Tucker with Marcus Smart to get the ball
Speaker 1: out of James Harden's hands. He's cooking everybody. He cooked
Speaker 1: your two best perimeter defenders and Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum.
Speaker 1: He was victimizing Malcolm Brogden down the end of that game.
Speaker 1: You need to do something to get the ball out
Speaker 1: of James Harden's hands. He has now torched you in
Speaker 1: live ball, dribble isolations, situations above the break in two
Speaker 1: games in the series, and you lost both of them.
Speaker 1: He's proven he can beat you when he when you
Speaker 1: funnel him to his weaknesses. Got to get the ball
Speaker 1: out of his hands. All right. My three points were
Speaker 1: brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. Earn five percent
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Speaker 1: three percent at drug stores, and one point five percent
Speaker 1: on everything else. How do you cash back? All right, guys,
Speaker 1: we will be back later tonight after the final buzzer
Speaker 1: of Warriors Lakers. As always, I appreciate you guys a
Speaker 1: couple more weeks on this grind before we get to
Speaker 1: the NBA Finals. It will be a little different as
Speaker 1: we go every third night, but we'll have stuff during
Speaker 1: the day as well. I appreciate you guys rocking with me,
Speaker 1: and I'll see you later tonight. The volume