1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,800
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

2
00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:05,720
Speaker 2: Do us prow read a lot?

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 3: They're a running again, so smoothe so sweet.

4
00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 4: Splendid sisting just glorious executions.

5
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 5: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

6
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 5: thousand percent of the time.

7
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,400
Speaker 2: How shot with that shop of mind?

8
00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 4: Good buddy, and that's why you.

9
00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:29,400
Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers.

10
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 3: Look at his movements, the.

11
00:00:30,920 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

12
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker 1: Nobody piction them.

13
00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,639
Speaker 5: God shut up, I'm trying.

14
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 3: The one. It's left to one, the wide eyed.

15
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,760
Speaker 4: Drill Bibeus, How old Earth pick that happens?

16
00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:53,160
Speaker 5: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

17
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:56,240
Speaker 5: betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael E.

18
00:00:56,320 --> 00:01:00,400
Speaker 5: Buff joining me as always for a brand news season

19
00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,920
Speaker 5: Premier League soccer across the continent of Europe. BJ Cunningham

20
00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 5: and Anthony Dubundo. My friends and colleagues and gentlemen.

21
00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:08,839
Speaker 3: We're back.

22
00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:12,600
Speaker 5: The Premier League gets underway Friday, August fifth, three pm

23
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,680
Speaker 5: Eastern Time with a kickoff between Crystal Palace and Arsenal

24
00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:19,000
Speaker 5: at Selhurst Park. So let's just dive right into the

25
00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,160
Speaker 5: ten games late. We'll start with that Friday night Lights

26
00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:22,960
Speaker 5: kickoff in South London.

27
00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 3: Palace plus three.

28
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:28,039
Speaker 5: Forty home underdog Arsenal odds on minus bunch twenty. The

29
00:01:28,160 --> 00:01:31,760
Speaker 5: draw is plus two seventy five. Here, bj, I'm actually

30
00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 5: gonna start with you. All three of us became infatuated

31
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 5: with betting on Crystal Palace last season. We did our

32
00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 5: preview pods, our season preview pods. All three of us

33
00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,479
Speaker 5: liked Crystal Palace as a potential sleeper in the Premier

34
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 5: League this season. But you're an Arsenal fin. We got

35
00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:47,880
Speaker 5: a little head versus heart action here.

36
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is scary. I'm terrified the two straight years

37
00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,720
Speaker 1: that the Premier League has opened up Arsenal on the

38
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,880
Speaker 1: road against another London club. It's it's a bunch of crap.

39
00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 1: I don't know why they continue to do this. But

40
00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,640
Speaker 1: Arsenal way over valued here at minus one thirty. I mean,

41
00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:05,680
Speaker 1: Seller's Park was a nightmare for the top six last season.

42
00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,440
Speaker 1: Chris Kalas actually had a plus one point three expected

43
00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,360
Speaker 1: goal differential versus the Big six. That's incredible for a

44
00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,280
Speaker 1: mid table club. They were one of the best defensive

45
00:02:13,320 --> 00:02:15,720
Speaker 1: units we've gone in nauseum. How good they were defensively.

46
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 1: They finished fourth and expected goals allowed fourth and big

47
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,640
Speaker 1: scoring chances allowed fifth in box entries allowed. They also

48
00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:26,320
Speaker 1: drilled Arsenal on April fourth, three to nothing at Selhurst Park,

49
00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:28,720
Speaker 1: and Arsenal clothes at minus one oh five for that match,

50
00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:30,960
Speaker 1: so you can say up to minus one thirty. Okay,

51
00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,919
Speaker 1: Arsenal's got some new signings. They've improved over the off season,

52
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:37,520
Speaker 1: but there's gonna be no Tumiyasu, probably no Tyranny and

53
00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,679
Speaker 1: no smith Row so that's a problem, which means in

54
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,000
Speaker 1: Chenko's Proagna to play left back and now I'm guess

55
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 1: Cedric's probablyna to play right back. The whole road splits

56
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 1: for Arsenal last year were pretty drastic plus eighteen expected

57
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,200
Speaker 1: gold differential at home minus five point two expected gold

58
00:02:52,200 --> 00:02:55,040
Speaker 1: differential on the road. That's pretty bad for a top

59
00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:58,200
Speaker 1: six team in Crystal Palace, like we already mentioned, really

60
00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:00,640
Speaker 1: really good at Seller's Park over a plus ten expected

61
00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,359
Speaker 1: gold differential. And these are teams weren't that there wasn't

62
00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 1: that big of a gap between in terms of expected

63
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,920
Speaker 1: gold diferential last year, Arsenal's around plus twelve and Chrystal

64
00:03:07,960 --> 00:03:11,800
Speaker 1: Palace is plus five. So for Arsenal to be this

65
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,480
Speaker 1: significant of a favorite on the road to open up

66
00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,800
Speaker 1: a new season. I mean, I have Arsenal as a

67
00:03:16,919 --> 00:03:20,720
Speaker 1: slight favorite at Selhurst Park, So if I'm betting with

68
00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,720
Speaker 1: my wallet, obviously I have to take Crystal Palace plus

69
00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,640
Speaker 1: half a goal at plus one oh five. My heart

70
00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,320
Speaker 1: hopes that Arsenal can win, but we have to bet

71
00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 1: numbers here, and Crystal Palace is clearly showing a ton

72
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:32,600
Speaker 1: of value on opening day.

73
00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:34,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on Palace too.

74
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,600
Speaker 5: I like the money line. Plus three forty six best

75
00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:39,480
Speaker 5: expected gold differential in the entire Premier League. Last year

76
00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,840
Speaker 5: they were part of the Big six if you just

77
00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,960
Speaker 5: look at it x G fifth best in expectacles allowed,

78
00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,760
Speaker 5: fourth and big chances allowed wins over Arsenal, City Spurs

79
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,280
Speaker 5: and United. Like you said, the gap just isn't that

80
00:03:51,360 --> 00:03:54,080
Speaker 5: wide between these two teams going off of what we

81
00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 5: learned last year, which is not how this game is

82
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,440
Speaker 5: being priced. The game is being priced as if it's

83
00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:04,960
Speaker 5: Arsenal versus Crystal Palace maybe less September like a big right,

84
00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 5: exactly right, and this is this is there's really I

85
00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 5: thought Palace would be getting a lot more respect in

86
00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 5: the market here and maybe it comes in, but it's

87
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,080
Speaker 5: also this is a standalone game on Friday afternoon. There's

88
00:04:17,240 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 5: very little other sports going on, at least in America.

89
00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,320
Speaker 5: Right Like, people are gonna be betting this game. It's

90
00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:25,719
Speaker 5: the first game of the season, so you'd expect the money,

91
00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:27,560
Speaker 5: like the casual money just to come in on Arsenal

92
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:31,640
Speaker 5: as the bigger club, the more kind of well known commodity,

93
00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:33,360
Speaker 5: so you might even be able to get Palace at

94
00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:34,120
Speaker 5: a better number here.

95
00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:35,160
Speaker 3: I like the Eagles.

96
00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:38,480
Speaker 5: Patrick Vieire did very little wrong last year with this team.

97
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,599
Speaker 5: I know they lose Connor Gallagher, but I don't think

98
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,880
Speaker 5: that for a team that was unlucky as much as

99
00:04:44,880 --> 00:04:46,800
Speaker 5: they were impressive last year, I just don't think that

100
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:49,560
Speaker 5: the Gallagher Deleting Gallagher from the roster is gonna have

101
00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,000
Speaker 5: as big an impact I think as we all think

102
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,279
Speaker 5: it will, because they still have depth up front so

103
00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,400
Speaker 5: they can score their way out of some problems if

104
00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:00,240
Speaker 5: they need to adjust without Gallagher. With Matteta Zaha as

105
00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,560
Speaker 5: a at least say like there's enough scoring talent on

106
00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 5: this team, I think to kind of give them runway

107
00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,640
Speaker 5: to settle things down in their midfield. Anthony, are you

108
00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 5: making a three for three, I am gonna make it

109
00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:11,000
Speaker 5: three for three.

110
00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:14,120
Speaker 4: No MacArthur for Palace, so I think we're gonna see

111
00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:16,720
Speaker 4: check Decore make his Palace debut in this match.

112
00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:17,839
Speaker 2: Very excited to see him.

113
00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:19,960
Speaker 4: I actually think he might be better than MacArthur in

114
00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:23,159
Speaker 4: terms of defensive midfielding and ball winning ability. And you

115
00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,640
Speaker 4: look at this Arsenal team. BJ mentioned it a lot

116
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 4: of hype in the preseason.

117
00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,120
Speaker 2: They look really good. In the preseason.

118
00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,440
Speaker 4: Gabrielle ja Zeus was scoring a lot of goals. I

119
00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,200
Speaker 4: think he had seven goals in four preseason games, so

120
00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:35,560
Speaker 4: very impressive for him.

121
00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:37,360
Speaker 2: And I'm generally high.

122
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:39,080
Speaker 4: On Arsenal and will be looking to bet them more

123
00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,720
Speaker 4: often than not, although not if the market's going to

124
00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:42,440
Speaker 4: show them this much.

125
00:05:42,360 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 2: Respect, I guess.

126
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,080
Speaker 4: But the reality is that I think Pallace continues to

127
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,599
Speaker 4: be undervalued. They did lose Gallagher and that hurts, but

128
00:05:50,279 --> 00:05:52,719
Speaker 4: eberci es A is going to fill that role and

129
00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,080
Speaker 4: I think he has more than he showed in the

130
00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:58,000
Speaker 4: last year. Of course, he had the achilles injury and

131
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:01,480
Speaker 4: he didn't really play much since joining Palace in January

132
00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,480
Speaker 4: of the year prior, but when he was healthy and

133
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,320
Speaker 4: playing in that second half of that season. He did

134
00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,640
Speaker 4: show plenty of life kind of Zaha esk and his

135
00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:14,000
Speaker 4: ability to progress the ball up the pitch and create chances.

136
00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:15,760
Speaker 2: So he is a little bit different than Gallagher.

137
00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,000
Speaker 4: He probably won't have the same number of goals, but

138
00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,160
Speaker 4: I do think as A provides a good spark in

139
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,800
Speaker 4: the midfield. And again, you know Bja mentioned Arsenal on

140
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,200
Speaker 4: the road Palace at home, top six team in the

141
00:06:26,279 --> 00:06:29,200
Speaker 4: league and beat you know everybody that they played pretty

142
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:31,360
Speaker 4: it felt like, at least beat everybody they played on

143
00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,839
Speaker 4: home soil Tide City beats burs beat Arsenal. And remember

144
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 4: you know Arsenal went to Palace last year and they

145
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,760
Speaker 4: were in great form. I mean they had just rolled

146
00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 4: through the prem in the last five or six matches

147
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:45,280
Speaker 4: they had. They had thrashed Wolves, they thrashed Brentford, thrash

148
00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,599
Speaker 4: Wolves again, had the impressive win against Watford Steamroll Lester,

149
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:51,760
Speaker 4: had the lost of Liverpool, but they played well in

150
00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:53,960
Speaker 4: that match and then went into Palace as one of

151
00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,839
Speaker 4: the hottest teams in the league before losing you know

152
00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,000
Speaker 4: three Nino getting embarrassed. So I think the preseason hype

153
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 4: is real on Arsenal I think some of it is deserved,

154
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:04,880
Speaker 4: but in this case, in this market, they're overvalued again.

155
00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:07,159
Speaker 4: And just like I think we all had brend for

156
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,400
Speaker 4: last year, we're all going to be riding the Eagles.

157
00:07:09,400 --> 00:07:11,240
Speaker 2: So I took them plus a half a plus one

158
00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:11,520
Speaker 2: h five.

159
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:13,240
Speaker 4: Actually I took them plus three quarters of a goal,

160
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:17,000
Speaker 4: but I'm five with plus a half plus one oh five.

161
00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:19,280
Speaker 4: They're all, you know, the same market essentially. But I

162
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:21,200
Speaker 4: do think Arsenal is pretty unvalued. I think Arsenal plus

163
00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:23,200
Speaker 4: one forty, so I'm even a little higher on Arsenal

164
00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 4: than bja is evidently, but either way, we still think

165
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:28,640
Speaker 4: that the number is not quite there.

166
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:30,280
Speaker 3: I think that's part.

167
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 5: Of what makes this such an interesting handicap is all

168
00:07:32,960 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 5: three of us in that preview pot, we're talking about

169
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:38,720
Speaker 5: Arsenal as a buy team at least in that top

170
00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 5: six cohort, and we're going against them because that's just

171
00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,400
Speaker 5: how good Palace is, or how underrated Palace is in

172
00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:47,880
Speaker 5: the betting market. And I guess we all thought the

173
00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,160
Speaker 5: market would have caught up to them by now, and

174
00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,360
Speaker 5: who knows. You know, it's a new season, so maybe

175
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:56,800
Speaker 5: things go pair shape for them, But I would think

176
00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,320
Speaker 5: it's much less likely that that happens. Then it's just

177
00:07:59,360 --> 00:08:01,080
Speaker 5: another step for vier side.

178
00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:03,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think Palace got market respect at the

179
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:04,760
Speaker 4: end of last year either. I mean, we all bet

180
00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:06,960
Speaker 4: them against United on the final day and I'd have

181
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:08,679
Speaker 4: to go back and look at who they played prior

182
00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,680
Speaker 4: to that. But I'm pretty confident I was betting Palace

183
00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:12,400
Speaker 4: a decent bit end of the season.

184
00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 2: No, they had.

185
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,040
Speaker 4: They had that three to two lost to Everton, So yeah,

186
00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:17,840
Speaker 4: I know I had palaf in that game. I was

187
00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:22,360
Speaker 4: more a matter of Everton relegation Steam, But generally speaking, yeah,

188
00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:24,080
Speaker 4: do you think the market has gotten a little bit

189
00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,200
Speaker 4: too disrespectful of Palace at this point?

190
00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:28,440
Speaker 5: All right, start to season, all three of us on

191
00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:30,360
Speaker 5: the same side. Do you know what that means. Let's

192
00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:33,280
Speaker 5: flip the page to Saturday. Pulham welcome back to the

193
00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:37,120
Speaker 5: Premier League to the Cottagers. Craved Cottage great place to

194
00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,760
Speaker 5: watch a game. They're plus nine to fifty nearly ten

195
00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 5: to one at home against Liverpool, second title favorites Liverpool

196
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,120
Speaker 5: minus three forty as you'd expect a big number that

197
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,160
Speaker 5: you'd have to lay on the Reds the draw plus

198
00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,040
Speaker 5: four to seventy five. This is the seven thirty am

199
00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,600
Speaker 5: kickcock on Saturday morning. Fulom's an interesting team because their

200
00:08:54,920 --> 00:08:57,960
Speaker 5: championship numbers sparkle right. One hundred and six goals they

201
00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:01,240
Speaker 5: scored last year in the Second Division plus sixty three

202
00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,800
Speaker 5: goal differential. They basically won the league by New Year's

203
00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,480
Speaker 5: Day under Marco Silva. But we've seen him in the

204
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 5: Premier League before. I mean I saw him up close

205
00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:12,840
Speaker 5: and personal with Everden.

206
00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:16,240
Speaker 3: He is stubborn in his go go go system.

207
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,640
Speaker 5: Kind of ignores the defensive side of things and that's

208
00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,000
Speaker 5: going to be a huge problem against Liverpool. So as

209
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,320
Speaker 5: tempted as I am taking a ten to one shot

210
00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,920
Speaker 5: on opening day against the team at home, first game

211
00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:32,120
Speaker 5: back in the Premier League after being promoted, it's just

212
00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:34,600
Speaker 5: it's hard to imagine this not being a runaway for

213
00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:39,239
Speaker 5: Jurgen Klopp and the Reds. Anthony, this is your team, Liverpool,

214
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:40,480
Speaker 5: So what do you have to say.

215
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,080
Speaker 4: I don't have a ton here, you know, I lean

216
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,080
Speaker 4: toward the under three and a quarter minus one twenties

217
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:49,679
Speaker 4: are out there. I think Fulham is going to I

218
00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:52,080
Speaker 4: think I think the defensive issues for Fulham are a

219
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 4: bit overstated, and I think the quality of this attack

220
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:57,079
Speaker 4: is a bit overstated coming out of the championship.

221
00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:58,920
Speaker 2: Number one. I mean they ran ridiculously well.

222
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,040
Speaker 4: Yes, they were dominant in attack in the Championship, but

223
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 4: they also overperformed quite a bit and expected goals, and

224
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 4: so I think there is some under regression coming for

225
00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:08,040
Speaker 4: this team generally.

226
00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 2: Speaking with that being said, I also, you know, I know.

227
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,080
Speaker 4: Marco Silva is the way he is, but I cannot

228
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,000
Speaker 4: get to them being as open as they were and

229
00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:18,800
Speaker 4: I don't think they're going to do that. And I

230
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,520
Speaker 4: do think that they made some you know, midfield and

231
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:26,120
Speaker 4: defensive additions that will help them at least cope with

232
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,200
Speaker 4: you know, some of these prem teams that are gonna

233
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:29,920
Speaker 4: you know, have more of the ball and force them

234
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,520
Speaker 4: to play without it. And so the question is, you know,

235
00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,320
Speaker 4: did the market move too much on Liverpool.

236
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:36,719
Speaker 2: It's not quite there. You know, if it got to

237
00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:38,200
Speaker 2: three and a half, I would probably play it.

238
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:39,959
Speaker 4: I would definitely play it at three and a half,

239
00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,360
Speaker 4: But at three point two five, it's kind of interesting.

240
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 3: You know.

241
00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:47,400
Speaker 4: I do like Paulinya like I think he can provide

242
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:52,240
Speaker 4: good ball winning they sign him from Sporting and Babu

243
00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:52,600
Speaker 4: is good.

244
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:54,000
Speaker 2: Is good right back there.

245
00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 4: Can get forward, but also decent defensively. And then I'm

246
00:10:57,640 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 4: not sure what to make of it, but I'm gonna

247
00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:00,839
Speaker 4: going to lean toward the ender.

248
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,840
Speaker 5: All right, Beacha, anything for you on this early Saturday kickoff?

249
00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:06,160
Speaker 1: No, this one's a passed me. I've had projected pretty

250
00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,440
Speaker 1: close on with what the actual market has, including the

251
00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:11,280
Speaker 1: you know, I have three point two goals, so I'm

252
00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,720
Speaker 1: not really have anything here. I am ingted to see

253
00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,600
Speaker 1: what Marco Silva does. To your point, Michael, is he

254
00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:19,240
Speaker 1: really going to try to be stubborn and play open

255
00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,679
Speaker 1: against Liverpool and in general going forward? Is that how

256
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,560
Speaker 1: Fulham's going to try to play against mid table clubs

257
00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,360
Speaker 1: like when we play Crystal Palace or if they play Leads.

258
00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:29,680
Speaker 1: Is it going to be more of an open style

259
00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:31,280
Speaker 1: game or they going to try to play more defensive?

260
00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,960
Speaker 1: So I think, and you know, Alan Shapiro from our

261
00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:36,440
Speaker 1: point Total podcast made a very good point, like, yes,

262
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,240
Speaker 1: they ran over teams in the Championship, they dominated possession,

263
00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,040
Speaker 1: they were you know, they had the most ten plus

264
00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:45,360
Speaker 1: pass sequences, most sequenced time on the ball. Well they're

265
00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,400
Speaker 1: not going to have that against Liverpool. So are they

266
00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 1: going to be able to cope and play without the

267
00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,720
Speaker 1: ball and be able to sit in defensively against Liverpool.

268
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:53,959
Speaker 1: That's a question that I need to see to be

269
00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,200
Speaker 1: answered first before I decide to play anything on Fulham.

270
00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 1: So this is a pass for me.

271
00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,440
Speaker 4: It is a very different team from the team that

272
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,520
Speaker 4: was up to yours, at least a little bit different.

273
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,359
Speaker 2: But that team wasn't that bad defensively.

274
00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,800
Speaker 4: They were slightly below average and expected goals allowed, and

275
00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:10,200
Speaker 4: so you know, you can make the case that you know,

276
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:12,920
Speaker 4: with a more pragmatic approach, they could be better.

277
00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:14,559
Speaker 2: There's no guarantee we're going to get that though. From

278
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:15,160
Speaker 2: Marcus Silva.

279
00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:17,120
Speaker 5: All right, let's move to the ten am kickoffs. I'll

280
00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:20,320
Speaker 5: start with leads plus one thirty at home hosting Wolverhampton

281
00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,320
Speaker 5: plus two to fifteen to draw plus two thirty five.

282
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,680
Speaker 5: I was almost certain I was going to be betting

283
00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,760
Speaker 5: the Peacocks leads in this one. I just don't know

284
00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:31,000
Speaker 5: if the numbers high enough, So this will likely be

285
00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 5: a pass for me. Under Jesse Marshalla leads, they did

286
00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,720
Speaker 5: improve after the BLSA burnout. They went four four wins,

287
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:41,400
Speaker 5: three draws, five losses in twelve games thirteen goals for,

288
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,600
Speaker 5: nineteen goals against and a minus two point three expected

289
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,080
Speaker 5: goal differential. So that team, if that team is what

290
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,840
Speaker 5: we get, I think that this number does have some value. However,

291
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:56,120
Speaker 5: they're betting in a ton of important players here. They

292
00:12:56,160 --> 00:13:01,000
Speaker 5: lost Calvin Phillips, they lost Rapena, So I honestly like

293
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,959
Speaker 5: at the numbers right now, I would be closer to Wolves,

294
00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,400
Speaker 5: a team that I'm not high on at all, But

295
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 5: this will be a pass for me.

296
00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:09,400
Speaker 3: Bj What about you?

297
00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Wolves overs are back at least for

298
00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:16,000
Speaker 1: this match here, because I'm not so sure that Leeds

299
00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:20,080
Speaker 1: defensively improved that much under Jesse Marsh. Yes, they were

300
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 1: really really bad under Bielsa, but in his twelve matches

301
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 1: in charge, Leeds match has averaged three a little over

302
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,760
Speaker 1: three expected goals and they were allowing one point six

303
00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:31,560
Speaker 1: expected goals per match. So and they didn't really make

304
00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,600
Speaker 1: any significant moves defensively in terms of center backs. That's

305
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,960
Speaker 1: going to improve them going forward this season and specifically

306
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,040
Speaker 1: for this match. Luke Ailing, Junior fear Po and Liam

307
00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,280
Speaker 1: Cooper are all going to miss it due to injury.

308
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:45,840
Speaker 1: So as bad as Wolves was offensively towards the end

309
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:49,040
Speaker 1: of the season. I think Leeds is going to have

310
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,880
Speaker 1: some difficulties trying to stop them. Yes, Ralph Mennis is out,

311
00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 1: but he was only a point twenty five actually for

312
00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:56,880
Speaker 1: ninety striker last year. He really wasn't that effective. Pedro

313
00:13:57,000 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 1: NATO's back, Pondanz is healthy, Adam ach Tria back from

314
00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 1: Loana from Barcelona. So say what you will about Wolves,

315
00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 1: but they were a top ten teams in terms of

316
00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:08,520
Speaker 1: big scoring chances created last year, even though they didn't

317
00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:10,800
Speaker 1: get a lot of shots, so they have the potential

318
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,319
Speaker 1: to be very threatening on the attack. And listen, we've

319
00:14:13,320 --> 00:14:16,800
Speaker 1: already talked about the Wolves defense, the regression that's coming.

320
00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,320
Speaker 1: We don't need to continually go into that. But they

321
00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 1: were one of the worst pressing teams in the Premier League.

322
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,800
Speaker 1: They were nineteenth. And Pressure's success right, which is good

323
00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 1: news for Leeds because they really did struggle playing through

324
00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 1: pressure last year. And finally Leeds let Patrick Bamford back,

325
00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 1: which is really really big for them. I mean, he

326
00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,400
Speaker 1: was he only played six nineties last year, but Leeds

327
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,800
Speaker 1: did average about one point five expected goals for ninety

328
00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 1: minutes with him in the side, and they were only

329
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,880
Speaker 1: about one point two without him, so he was a

330
00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:45,240
Speaker 1: point sixty three actually per ninety striker. So in the

331
00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,480
Speaker 1: season before that, a full season the Premier League, he

332
00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,920
Speaker 1: was zero point five to one. So he's a good

333
00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,120
Speaker 1: striker that actually provides some a goal scoring threat up top,

334
00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:55,880
Speaker 1: something leads I don't think really had last season. So

335
00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,640
Speaker 1: I have about two point seven goals projected. I'm taking

336
00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:01,720
Speaker 1: a bols over two and a half goals at plus

337
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:03,920
Speaker 1: one oh five, but I need plus money or better

338
00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:04,440
Speaker 1: to take it.

339
00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:11,080
Speaker 5: Anthony, you are going with Jesse Marsh. You're American hero,

340
00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 5: That's correct.

341
00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 2: The Americans team of the Premier League.

342
00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,480
Speaker 4: I mean, look, I think they had a couple of

343
00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,720
Speaker 4: big losses with Calvin Phillips leaving.

344
00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:21,440
Speaker 2: But he barely played last year.

345
00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 4: And so when you were thinking about, okay, how good

346
00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:26,200
Speaker 4: is leads, and you look at last year's number and

347
00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 4: you look at the year before's number, that gives you

348
00:15:29,040 --> 00:15:32,600
Speaker 4: two very different kind of ratings on how good they are.

349
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:34,880
Speaker 4: If you look at just last year's number, they were

350
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,640
Speaker 4: one of the three worst teams and should have been relegated.

351
00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:39,960
Speaker 4: But you have to factor in the extreme level of

352
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,240
Speaker 4: injuries that they saw. And I'm not saying that they

353
00:15:42,280 --> 00:15:45,200
Speaker 4: won't get injured again. That's very possible. And you know

354
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,440
Speaker 4: Liam Cooper and Ferpo they're moderate losses, but they're not

355
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,840
Speaker 4: losses that I don't think the team can overcome, Whereas

356
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 4: Calvin Phillips was the kind of loss they couldn't overcome

357
00:15:55,360 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 4: last season. Now, I think with a healthy Tyler Adams

358
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,200
Speaker 4: and a healthy Brendan Aronson and a healthy Luis sinoster

359
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,760
Speaker 4: Era and a healthy Patrick Bamford, I think there's way

360
00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,040
Speaker 4: more attacking firepower on leads side than there is on

361
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,480
Speaker 4: the wolf side. And you mentioned Himenez being injured. The

362
00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:11,760
Speaker 4: problem with Jimenez is that one he wasn't great, but

363
00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 4: everybody else was kind of worse. Like haanghe Chan operates

364
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 4: decently well in space, but he's not the kind that

365
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,960
Speaker 4: has good passing range or is going to manage to

366
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:25,360
Speaker 4: navigate tight spaces necessarily. He's more of a pac and

367
00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 4: power type player.

368
00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 2: And you know leads. You mentioned it too, Bja.

369
00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,120
Speaker 4: With Wolves, they don't press much at all. They did

370
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:34,760
Speaker 4: early in the season, then they kind of backed off

371
00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:36,280
Speaker 4: of that and they kind of sat a little bit

372
00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,880
Speaker 4: deeper and waited for opponents to come on to them.

373
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,480
Speaker 4: Leads struggled heavily with teams who pressed them under Marsh.

374
00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,000
Speaker 4: Their past completion percentage didn't really go up a ton

375
00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,280
Speaker 4: under Marsh, and that is pretty concerning because of how

376
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:51,360
Speaker 4: frenetic b also was. The idea was, okay, if we

377
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 4: go to Marsh, we'll slow it down a little bit,

378
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 4: improve our passing percentages.

379
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 3: That didn't really happen.

380
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,240
Speaker 4: But you have to remember there was a lot of

381
00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,400
Speaker 4: red card locked that went look you know, can say

382
00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:03,720
Speaker 4: look red card decisions that went against them in that

383
00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 4: second run of the season under Marsh when they were

384
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 4: trying to stay up, you know, thinking about the Arsenal

385
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 4: and the Chelsea games. So I am generally h much

386
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:13,280
Speaker 4: higher on Leads than I am on.

387
00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:14,679
Speaker 2: Wolves coming into the season.

388
00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 4: I think Leads are the better team, and they're at

389
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:18,879
Speaker 4: home and so you know, there's some plus one thirties

390
00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 4: out there. I grabbed to plus one to forty early,

391
00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:22,880
Speaker 4: but I'm fine with this down to plus one twenty

392
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:23,960
Speaker 4: five and real quick.

393
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,040
Speaker 1: You know, Wolves and Leads met in Marsh's third match

394
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:28,800
Speaker 1: in charge the Premier League last year. If you remember,

395
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:30,879
Speaker 1: Wolves went up to nothing early and then Leads just

396
00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:32,639
Speaker 1: stormed back in the second half to make it the

397
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,119
Speaker 1: three to two and there was about and they leads

398
00:17:35,119 --> 00:17:37,320
Speaker 1: did create two point two expected goals in that match,

399
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: so deserving winners in that one. And it just shows

400
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 1: that Wolves defensive regression can happen.

401
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 5: We know that song and dance all too well on

402
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,120
Speaker 5: this podcast. To move on to Newcastle and not Ingham

403
00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 5: forced forced back in the Premier League first time in

404
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 5: a long time. Two times European champions in the seventies

405
00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,000
Speaker 5: are Noddingham forced out of the Midlands. They will travel

406
00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:03,879
Speaker 5: to the Saint James Park as plus four fifty underdogs

407
00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 5: Newcastle minus one fifty five the draw plus two seventy

408
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 5: five another ten am Eastern time kickoff. Actually like Forrest

409
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 5: here as a good price here. They were one one

410
00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,720
Speaker 5: in six to start the season in the Championship. They

411
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 5: made a coaching change one one six wind draw loss,

412
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 5: so six of their first eight games were losses. They

413
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 5: bring in Steve Cooper. They finished twenty three eleven and

414
00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 5: twelve win draw loss, so twenty two wins, ten draws,

415
00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 5: six losses under Cooper. I think this team has has

416
00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,560
Speaker 5: some Brentford potential and what did we see out of

417
00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 5: Brentford last year? They profiled as a good underdog, strong

418
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 5: defensive team, a lot of cohesion. They play to a

419
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:43,960
Speaker 5: specific game plan that should make them tough to beat,

420
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,399
Speaker 5: which is the type of underdog I want to bet on.

421
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 5: And I just think we're going to see Newcastle against

422
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,159
Speaker 5: these kind of teams be treated like the sixth or

423
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,399
Speaker 5: seventh best team in the Premier League, you know, in

424
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,520
Speaker 5: that range, you know, six to eighth, And I just

425
00:18:56,560 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 5: don't think they've deserved that yet.

426
00:18:58,440 --> 00:18:59,280
Speaker 3: I mean, if you look at their.

427
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:02,720
Speaker 5: Underlying numbers from February first, on twenty one and a half,

428
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 5: expectacles for twenty two point two expectacles against so negative

429
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 5: expected goal differential plus four actual goal differential, but they

430
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 5: still went eleven wins, five losses and a draw, so

431
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,919
Speaker 5: thirty four points. They should have had twenty five according

432
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 5: to expected points. So I just think they're going to

433
00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 5: be overrated against teams like nod in Forest. Teams like

434
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,679
Speaker 5: Leads go down the list of teams that the market

435
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 5: expects to finish below them. So I think you're getting

436
00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 5: a good price to go against Newcastle here, Anthony, what

437
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 5: do you have?

438
00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's really tough to figure out Forrest.

439
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:35,040
Speaker 4: You know, on one hand, you know, with the coaching situation,

440
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 4: you can argue that they should be better than their

441
00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 4: numbers may indicated last year in the Championship, especially when

442
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 4: if you are a Steve Cooper fan and I know

443
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 4: Michael is but they do have a lot of new pieces,

444
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:46,919
Speaker 4: like there's not that much cohesion at this point, so

445
00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 4: I'm kind of skeptical of buying them. That being said,

446
00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 4: I'm not buying Newcastle with that number either. I mean,

447
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 4: that's you know, they're gonna be laying a goal I

448
00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 4: think to a lot of teams this year, and it

449
00:19:57,600 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 4: is very hard to lay a goal in the Premier

450
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:03,480
Speaker 4: League when your team only averaged one point five expected

451
00:20:03,520 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 4: goals per ninety after the transfer window closed last season,

452
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 4: and you know, they could go by Madison and then

453
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 4: I will kind of you know, a boo boost my

454
00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:12,440
Speaker 4: outlook on this team.

455
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: And I do like Callum Wilson. I think he's an

456
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 2: underrated striker.

457
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 4: You know, the minutes you get of him are pretty

458
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 4: good minutes and he generally will you know, get you

459
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 4: you know, point four goals for ninety. But you look

460
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 4: around and like we like gimearas Joe Andson offensive midfielder.

461
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 4: Apparently the defense has clearly improved trips, helps a little

462
00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 4: bit with set pieces, but they're still not getting me

463
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 4: there to lay this number, so it's an easy pass

464
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 4: year for me.

465
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, and also interested to see how their defensive numbers

466
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:42,879
Speaker 5: kind of hold up because Eddie Howe comes in. They

467
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 5: were a relegation basically favorite when he took over this team,

468
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 5: and he's not He's kind of like Marco silvan Away

469
00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 5: where he's not a defensively sound manager. He's much more

470
00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:54,199
Speaker 5: about putting the ball on the carpet and kicking it

471
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 5: around and figuring out the rest later. So I wonder

472
00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,160
Speaker 5: how much of what he did last season was more

473
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,959
Speaker 5: of just like, let's get this team consolidated, Let's make

474
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 5: sure this team stays up most importantly, and then I'll

475
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 5: start to work in, you know, kind of my my

476
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 5: ball playing philosophy. So there is a chance that these

477
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,640
Speaker 5: Newcastle games go off the rails a little bit because

478
00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 5: they do have attacking talent. Now, they have obviously offered

479
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 5: more going forward than they did before the January transfer window,

480
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,840
Speaker 5: and with with Howe's defensive kind of vulnerabilities that he

481
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 5: showed at Bournemouth, I think Newcastle could be an interesting

482
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,920
Speaker 5: over team at the risk of making another Wolves over

483
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 5: kind of like prediction. I think Newcastle games are gonna

484
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 5: be kind of back and forth all season, and I

485
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 5: just like the number one nodding them here, bj what

486
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 5: do you have for this one?

487
00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a pass for me. Anthony kind of

488
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 1: imagined it. With all the new pieces for Nodingham Forced,

489
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 1: I need to see how they're actually gonna set up, Like,

490
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 1: are they actually gonna set up in a three four three,

491
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 1: three five two whatever it might be, and sit in

492
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: park the bus and just look at count or are

493
00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: they going to try to play more open with Jesse

494
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: Lynd guard and now and now he and all these guys,

495
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 1: these new pieces that they have. I'm not so sure

496
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 1: what they're gonna do against Newcastle. And I'm not sure

497
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,040
Speaker 1: who's really going to control possession in this one. I

498
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 1: mean both the Newcastle was a very low pressing team.

499
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: They were very good defensively, very compact, but I just

500
00:22:18,880 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: don't know right out of the gates, and I have

501
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,639
Speaker 1: this projected right on with what it is. I was

502
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: looking at both teams. Score No. One of my favorite

503
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 1: bets out there. If you've been listening to this podcast,

504
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 1: for a little while, but that's been that's been bet

505
00:22:30,280 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 1: up to the minus one thirty minus one thirty five range,

506
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 1: so that's gonna be I can't. I can't bet that

507
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 1: at that price, So just gonna end up pssing. And

508
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 1: I really want to see how I'm not him Forrest

509
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: sets up in this first match.

510
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, Newcastle's interesting possession wise. They were eighteenth in possession

511
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 4: percentage last year. I do expect it to be higher.

512
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 2: They were.

513
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,720
Speaker 4: Joe Linton and Geema Rays alone is so much better

514
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 4: than Forrest midfield that I do think they'll have most

515
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,440
Speaker 4: of the ball here. But and even someone like Dan

516
00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 4: Byrne is pretty good with the ball to his feet.

517
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 4: Trippier good possession player, Botman, you know, kind of nailing

518
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 4: his way into the team.

519
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 2: We'll see what happens on that front as well. But

520
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:05,119
Speaker 2: I think.

521
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 4: Newcastle's defense as as much about Eddie Howe as it

522
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 4: is just they bought better players like and like credit

523
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 4: Eddie Howe for like putting Joe Linton in the midfield,

524
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 4: but Joe Linton's ball winning Dan Byrne, you know, the

525
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 4: players feel like they improved more than like the manager

526
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 4: Magic did up so that's kind of my philosophy on

527
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 4: Newcastle's defense being good.

528
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, they also went from one extreme to another with

529
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 5: Steve Bruce then to Eddie Howey.

530
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 4: Maybeer is just a really bad manager, which I'm much

531
00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: more likely to believe.

532
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 5: He's pretty good at getting teams up from the championship,

533
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,160
Speaker 5: So West Brom coming back up, I'm sure, as he's

534
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 5: now at the how Thorns with them in the second tier.

535
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,400
Speaker 5: Let's move on to Anthony's second favorite team, Spurs their

536
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 5: minds to eighty hosting Southampton Ralph Hassen hudles Saints plus

537
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 5: seven fifty the draw four to one. There's a part

538
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 5: of me that's tempted by the Saints number, but the

539
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 5: matchup's just a nightmare, playing right into the style of

540
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,679
Speaker 5: Antonio Conte's preferred style of play with the pressing and

541
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 5: then Spurs just nicked the ball encounter and score and

542
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 5: this could be a blowout for Spurs. I think so.

543
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 5: I actually like getting plus money on minus one and

544
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:15,199
Speaker 5: a half back in Tottenham to win by more than

545
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 5: a goal.

546
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 3: BJ. What do you got?

547
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 1: I agree, I like Tottenham minus one and a half

548
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: at plus one oh five. I actually think they're undervalued

549
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: in this first match. If we just take their numbers

550
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: under Conte last year two point zero five expected goals

551
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: four per ninety point nine to nine xg allowed per ninety.

552
00:24:31,000 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: That was very clear and away the third best market

553
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 1: mere league behind Liverpool and City. And you know they

554
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 1: created a little over two big scoring chances per ninety

555
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: during that time for ender Conte as well. And they're

556
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: facing Southampton who allowed the most big scoring chances in

557
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 1: the Premier League last year and didn't really make any

558
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 1: defensive upgrades. They're in the transfer window and Southampton's ultra

559
00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 1: pressing style really isn't going to work against this Tottenham team.

560
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 1: I mean to under Conte was fifth and offensive pass

561
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 1: per defensive action plus if you look at Southampton, Broje

562
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: is gone. They're gonna roll with Chay Adams and Adam Marnstrong,

563
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 1: which we've already mentioned is maybe the worst striking duo

564
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. And listen, Southampton was. They may

565
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 1: have gotten a couple results against the Big Six, but

566
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 1: their underlying metrics were awful. Twelve matches against the Big Six,

567
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: ten point seven expected goals for twenty five point one

568
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: expected goals against minus fourteen point four expected goal the

569
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 1: frontal versus the big six. That's really really bad. So

570
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,160
Speaker 1: I have taught him at minus one point seven eight

571
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 1: on the spread. So I love Spurs minus one and

572
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 1: a half at anything plus money.

573
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 5: Anthony, you're a Spurs tragic. So what say you about

574
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 5: their opener against Southampton? Is it a potential banana skin

575
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 5: or is this just going to be, you know, walking

576
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 5: the park here.

577
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 4: I definitely think it could be a bit of a

578
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:53,679
Speaker 4: banana skin or banana peel. I think Southampton, while I

579
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 4: agree with both of you, plays a style that could

580
00:25:56,359 --> 00:26:00,680
Speaker 4: be conducive to just opening up the door to get

581
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 4: in behind with ease and create a ton of big

582
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 4: scoring chances. I do think that's a very real possibility.

583
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 4: My number is pretty close to spot on. With that

584
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 4: being said, I also don't love Southampton.

585
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: Early in the season. I think we've seen this the

586
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: last couple of years.

587
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 4: They started the twenty nineteen season with consecutive losses to

588
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,479
Speaker 4: Burnley and Liverpool of Sham and Liverpool lost, but they

589
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: got beat three niled by Burnley last season or two

590
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 4: years ago. Rather, they started the season with a loss

591
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 4: to Palace and then got thrashed five to two by

592
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 4: Spurs in a game where their press just looked a

593
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 4: little bit off. And then to begin last season they

594
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 4: lost to Everton as Michael remember, there was a lot

595
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 4: of defensive issues there, pressing issues, and then they got

596
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 4: a one to one draw with United but they kind

597
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 4: of stole it. They got played off the park a bit.

598
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 2: So I don't love Saints this early in the season.

599
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 4: I do think the hasse and hoodle takes a little

600
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,159
Speaker 4: bit of time, you know, one, two, three games to

601
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 4: kind of get into it, and we saw that last season.

602
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 4: I mean the third, their fourth match of the season,

603
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 4: they went to Newcastle and they they had a two

604
00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 4: two draw, but they played really well. So I think

605
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 4: there's definitely an element of that that factors into Saints

606
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 4: that keeps me away from betting them here. I especially

607
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 4: think that there is blowout potential. So if you like Spurs,

608
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 4: chase an alternate line. But I'm going to be passing here.

609
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think we're going to see a lot of

610
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 5: Liverpool Spurs money line parlays, or at least have those

611
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 5: two teams as an anchor on a two or three

612
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 5: team moneyline parlay.

613
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: There one can give you wonky results.

614
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 5: It can't, which is and that's kind of what I

615
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 5: was alluding to when I was saying, like the Saints

616
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 5: number tempts me, like the follow number tens. We were

617
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 5: bound to get one right in week one. You're bound

618
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:37,119
Speaker 5: to get one crazy, whether it's an upset or just

619
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 5: a game that goes bonkers. But I just think that

620
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: the matchup, like you can't pick a better first week

621
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 5: opponent for First and Saints. I don't think maybe full

622
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,440
Speaker 5: All right, let's talk about the other newly promoted team.

623
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,719
Speaker 5: Welcome back to the Premier League, Born Myth plus two

624
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 5: seventy five at home hosting Stephen Girard's Aston Villa. They're

625
00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 5: even money on the road to draw plus two forty five.

626
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 5: This game has a has a pretty low total, and

627
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 5: I expect Born with under Scott Parker to be pretty

628
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 5: pragmatic about.

629
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,040
Speaker 3: Their approach to play.

630
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 5: I don't think that just the way his talking preseason,

631
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,280
Speaker 5: they're not expecting any investment, Like it almost sounds like

632
00:28:17,320 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 5: they're saying like if we get if we go back down,

633
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 5: we go back down kind of situation, and they're not

634
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 5: going to worry about doing what Daniel Farka did with

635
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 5: Norwich and giving his fans like some crazy games because

636
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 5: of their wide open style. Instead, I think this is

637
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 5: going to be a pretty boring team that maybe tries

638
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 5: their burnleys its.

639
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 3: Way to safety.

640
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 5: So I don't think the draw here is terrible when

641
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,840
Speaker 5: you look at what weston Ville's offensive numbers were last

642
00:28:40,880 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 5: year eighteenth and big scoring chances twelve and non penalty

643
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 5: expected goals. Should they improve a little bit in Gerard

644
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 5: with a full season, now that he's got them kind

645
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 5: of consolidated in the back, I think you can expect

646
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:52,600
Speaker 5: a little bit of an uptick.

647
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 3: They did some good.

648
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 5: Transfer business, But for week one, I think that this

649
00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 5: is probably the game that I would bet best Environ

650
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 5: for a draw, considering the team that's at home probably

651
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 5: setting up defensively, and the team that's on the road

652
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 5: that is favored. They're not the best team at trying

653
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 5: to push the pace and create or open up a game,

654
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 5: So I'd like to draw here plus two to forty

655
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 5: five BJ. What do you see out of this one?

656
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, something similar. I love both teams to score no

657
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: which is currently even money Bourne myth. I think you

658
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 1: already mentioned it. They were actually pretty good defensively in

659
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 1: the Championship last year. They point nine nine to actually

660
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: allowed for match, second fewest shots per ninety allowed and

661
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:34,680
Speaker 1: they allowed the fewest goals from open play, so behind

662
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: only Fulham. They had the most ten plus pass sequences,

663
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 1: one of the longest sequence times, very low direct speeds.

664
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: So that tells me that I have a team that's

665
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: going to probably set up very defensively, play very pragmatic,

666
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: and play very conservative, especially beginning of the season. Well

667
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: to your point about the draw, that's going to play

668
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,520
Speaker 1: in perfectly for this match because Aston Villa and or

669
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: Stephen Gerrard were actually pretty conservative and set up as

670
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: a pretty heavy counter attacking style team. I mean they

671
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 1: led the Premier League in direct speed. I mean under

672
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 1: Gerrard they were fourteenth and passes per defensive action thirteenth

673
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 1: in high turnover, so not a big pressing team, but

674
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: they were very good defensively. They allowed one point one

675
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,320
Speaker 1: to eight non penalty expected goals per match under him.

676
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: They had Diego Carlos, so they're going to improve defensively.

677
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: So considering that Bournemouth has made no moves to improve

678
00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: their attack, I highly doubt they're going to create over

679
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: one expected goal in this match and sixteen to twenty

680
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: seven matches last year under Gerrard, both at least one

681
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: team failed to create at least one expected goal, so

682
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 1: I have the both teams to score no line projected

683
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty one, So at even money, I

684
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: think there's tremendous value on that.

685
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, it feels like a low event game. So I'm

686
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 5: with you there, Anthony. You're relatively bullish acid Villa shouldn't

687
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 5: be surprised in considering their manager is a Liverpool legend

688
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 5: and you love your Reds. So what do you say

689
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 5: here for Bournemouth and Villa.

690
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I leaned toward Villa here and I leaned toward

691
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: the under as well. I do think Bournemouth is going

692
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: to have major scoring issues. I think they're going to

693
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 4: be the worst at in the Premier League this year.

694
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 4: I think you look across the board and there's not

695
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:07,120
Speaker 4: a ton to like about them. And Villa I think

696
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 4: will be a team that is going to be in

697
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 4: a weird situation because they're going to be I think

698
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 4: asked to have the ball more and I think that's

699
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 4: going to be, you know, with Katino, with Gwendilla. The

700
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,719
Speaker 4: biggest question mark for Villa is going to be okay.

701
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 4: They really didn't do a ton of build up play

702
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 4: under Dean Smith, and they were pretty direct under Jerrard

703
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 4: as well. Can they take kind of the next progression

704
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 4: step and possessed the ball more? We kind of saw

705
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 4: that last year with west Ham, Like the first half

706
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: of the season they were pretty good at possessing, pressing,

707
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 4: winning the ball, keeping the ball, doing what good teams do,

708
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 4: and then they kind of regress back through being a direct,

709
00:31:48,600 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 4: counter attacking kind of team. It didn't really work out

710
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 4: that well. I think Villa has more to make that

711
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 4: work as a whole team than west Ham, and so

712
00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 4: that that really is what the question. You're asking for

713
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 4: them to go on the road against a relegation level

714
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 4: team and create enough to get margin.

715
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: I'm gonna wait and see on that. So I'm gonna

716
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:07,239
Speaker 2: pass here now.

717
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 5: The moment we've all been waiting for, twelve thirty pm.

718
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: Lunchtime kickoff Saturday.

719
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 5: Goodison Park, the mighty Everton Toffees plus four to twenty

720
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 5: five hosting Chelsea minus won fifty five that draw up

721
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:23,719
Speaker 5: plus two ninety. Frank Lampard going up against his former team,

722
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 5: the team he used to manage once again. Everdon did

723
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 5: have a famous win over Chelsea last season in there

724
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 5: bid to stay up. The big news here is Dominic

725
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 5: Calvert Lewin is out for this one.

726
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 1: What again? Already already say give her a couple of

727
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: training sets.

728
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 5: We'll see him around eastern for the for the relegation

729
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 5: scrap for.

730
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 4: The record, Michael Slack does and said down with a

731
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 4: link to the DCL is injured.

732
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 2: Let go.

733
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 1: They're not going down, They're fine. What are we talking

734
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 1: about here?

735
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 4: They don't have a season, they don't have him midfield,

736
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 4: they're gonna get I think Chelsea's healthy midfield could just

737
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 4: destroy it. I'm out playing minus one fifty, but Chelsea's

738
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,680
Speaker 4: healthy midfield, like should just run through this everython team

739
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 4: and they should draw.

740
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm interested to see how Lampard sets up, because

741
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 5: stubbornly he kept going with a two in the midfield

742
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 5: until finally it became clearer to him, after it was

743
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 5: clear to everyone they needed to pack the middle of

744
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,239
Speaker 5: the park with as many bodies as possible. But he

745
00:33:25,320 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: clearly wants to play like a two man pivot in

746
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 5: the middle, and it just isn't gonna work against Chelsea.

747
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 5: Like you said, until Teresa kind of guy comes back,

748
00:33:35,840 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 5: which seems like it's happening. Yeah, their midfield could get

749
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 5: overrun by better teams. I think if Calvert Lule was playing,

750
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 5: there's There was a little bit of interest from me

751
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 5: on Everdon at the number. I still think the numbers,

752
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 5: like you said on Chelsea, is way too high, considering

753
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 5: they're a bit unsettled right now. But I'll wait on Everden.

754
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 5: I'll wait to see see how the lineup actually shakes out.

755
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 5: But I would still be closer to the underdog here Beja.

756
00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 3: What about you?

757
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: Well, this is a straight pass for me. I'm looking

758
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 1: at the injury list and it looks like Solomon Rondon's

759
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: injured too. So who's fore he suspended?

760
00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 2: He got the red card at the last year.

761
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 3: He's yeah, so it'll likely be Delhi.

762
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: Delhi Ali up top. Okay, So are we gonna roll

763
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: with three four three again or are we going to

764
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: go back to the four four two? I highly doubt

765
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: Lampard is gonna do that.

766
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: Who are the midfielders?

767
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:30,879
Speaker 1: I don't know? Corey, yeah, I am.

768
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 5: I meant a lost for Wobe was good in the middle,

769
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 5: but he's like in a two man midfield. It's asking

770
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 5: too much for him when, yeah, when he could be

771
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 5: that third man who has a ball at his feet,

772
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 5: it's fine. Like that's what I'm saying. The lineup is

773
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 5: this game. I think it's heavily depending on the lineup

774
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 5: for me, Like, this is.

775
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: Such a pass for me. I I mean, I have

776
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 1: Chelsea one forty six and that's before accounting for Dominic

777
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: Calvert Lewin being out. So I'm just this is such

778
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 1: a I'm just gonna pass and just just watch this

779
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 1: and try to hopefully see Chelsea, you know, at least

780
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 1: lose on opening weekend. That would be kind of funny.

781
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, so that's probably the one on the whole board

782
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 5: that has got the most dust that needs to settle

783
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 5: before we get there.

784
00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's too much going on.

785
00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's move to Sunday.

786
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 5: Then it's Leicester City as even money favorites at home

787
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 5: hosting Brentford. I think if you listen to this podcast regularly,

788
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 5: you know where we're going with this one. The Bees

789
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:25,799
Speaker 5: plus two sixty on the road, the draw plus two

790
00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 5: sixty five Lees. They're outpaced there expected metrics, they're expected

791
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 5: points by ten. Last year, set pieces were a disaster

792
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 5: for them. If you flip it and talk about Brentford,

793
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 5: their team that their expected points suggested, they're they're due

794
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 5: for positive regression and they were really really good on

795
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 5: set pieces last year. Are those two things going to

796
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 5: kind of, you know, come back to the middle in

797
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 5: terms of the set pieces. I don't know, but I'm

798
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 5: willing to take the sean on Brentford here plus two

799
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 5: sixty Leicester City, as Anthony kind of alluded to before

800
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 5: with James Madison, he might be on the way out,

801
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 5: although Brendan Rodgers says he doesn't want to sell them,

802
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 5: Like there's just a lot surrounding Leicester City that I

803
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 5: don't like, and we were pretty bearish on them last

804
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,319
Speaker 5: year to begin with him bullish on Brentford. So I

805
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:07,400
Speaker 5: think you're getting a good number here on the Bees

806
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 5: plus two sixty against a lesser team that I think

807
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 5: is right for the picking against teams the market has

808
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 5: finishing lower than them in the table. Anthony wogo to

809
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 5: you first about our Bees.

810
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 2: Can we make Lester an under team this year?

811
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 3: Now?

812
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 4: Like here's my theory, Like they're going to improve on

813
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 4: set piece defense?

814
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: Are they think?

815
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 3: I don't know about this? Against I don't know against.

816
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 4: Look, I don't know about the game against Brentford. I'm

817
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 4: saying over the thirty eight game season, I think there

818
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 4: is no way in hell they are this bad again defensively.

819
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 2: But I also don't think their offense.

820
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 4: Was as good as the numbers indicated last year. And

821
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 4: that's based solely on you know, looking at just next

822
00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 4: year across two actual goals, expecting that Vardi is going

823
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 4: to slow down, expecting the Vardy is going to get hurt,

824
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: thinking that Ianacho and doc I haven't really taken the

825
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 4: step forward to replace his production at this point, and

826
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 4: the potential sale of James Madison, Now that's a thirty

827
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 4: eight game thing. I don't know if I want to

828
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 4: bet Brentford here because the home and a waste splits

829
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 4: are scary, and I do think Brentford is going to

830
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 4: have major issues scoring this season. I think that that's

831
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:08,840
Speaker 4: going to be my kind of criticism of them generally speaking,

832
00:37:08,920 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 4: especially on the road, And so I lean towards the

833
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 4: Bees here just based on my number, because I do

834
00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 4: you know, Brentford are a team I'm higher on in

835
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 4: the market. Last year, our team I'm lower on in

836
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:19,399
Speaker 4: the market so naturally when they play each other.

837
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 2: I like Brentford and I'm just not sure.

838
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 4: I'm probably gonna play this small because I do have

839
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 4: a lot of question marks about the Bees, you know,

840
00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 4: I'm kind of like tepidly optimistic about their chances relative again,

841
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 4: relative to the market. So I'm going to lean toward

842
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 4: Brentford and I'm probably gonna play it small, but I'm

843
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 4: going to make the case that last year this season

844
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 4: doesn't have as many crazy wonky games and that we

845
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 4: kind of just see a more diluted attack along with

846
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,799
Speaker 4: a defense that doesn't can't possibly run that poorly on

847
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 4: set piece.

848
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:50,280
Speaker 2: Again, they can't.

849
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 5: We tried to avoid handicapping these kind of things, but

850
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 5: Lester has like this kind of lane duck feel to

851
00:37:56,640 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 5: it this season too, and Brentford is the opposite, right,

852
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,000
Speaker 5: They were parade like year in their first season up.

853
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,280
Speaker 5: Thomas Frank has them all on the same page.

854
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:05,720
Speaker 3: They all love the system.

855
00:38:05,800 --> 00:38:08,319
Speaker 5: They seem to have gelled really well as a team

856
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 5: and coped with the Premier League really well as a team.

857
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 5: So in terms of like just like the general surrounding

858
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,320
Speaker 5: of the club, and maybe that's why this number is

859
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 5: is where it is, and it's been baked into the

860
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 5: handicap already. But I'll get caught up in it and

861
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 5: still go with the Bees here, BJ what say you?

862
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely on the Bees. So the argument you can

863
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,479
Speaker 1: make that Lester's defense is going to prove is because

864
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 1: Wesley Plafanas finally healthy. He barely played last year. He's

865
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: really promising young center back. We'll see if he actually

866
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 1: stays a lesser if he gets sold to Chelsea or

867
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,839
Speaker 1: another club before the transfer window closes. So you can

868
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: make that argument they'll get better. But I mean Casper

869
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 1: Smichael just left for Nice and he started in thirty

870
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:48,959
Speaker 1: seven of thirty eight matches last year, and they don't

871
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: have a replacement for him. They're just gonna roll with

872
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,239
Speaker 1: Danny Ward. I guess to open up the season. I

873
00:38:53,360 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: would say that he's probably a little bit of a downgrade.

874
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: I mean, Cash Michael wasn't that great last year and

875
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 1: he was, you know, in his minth So you can

876
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: make the argument that, you know, it's not really the

877
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: big of a downgrade defensively, But I mean Brentford, I

878
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 1: you know, the Christian Erickson thing obviously hurts them quite

879
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,560
Speaker 1: a bit. But I think They're gonna be just fine offensively,

880
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 1: especially on set pieces. I mean, they had the fourth

881
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 1: most goals off of set pieces, and they underperformed. They

882
00:39:16,960 --> 00:39:19,759
Speaker 1: had fifteen goals off of seventeen point seven expected goals

883
00:39:19,760 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 1: off set pieces, and now they're going against Lester who

884
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: allowed nineteen goals off of twenty expected So yes, they

885
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 1: can't run this bad anthony, but they're still not gonna

886
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 1: just regress down to being a mid level team against

887
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: set pieces, like they're still going to probably struggle at

888
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: some point. They have the same manager, They've made no

889
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: moves to essentially improve themselves defensively other than getting fullfauna

890
00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 1: in there. So I don't think that Lester's really going

891
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,160
Speaker 1: to improve drastically against set pieces. They're still probably gonna

892
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: be one of the bottom five teams against them. So

893
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 1: in terms of a projection on this match, I mean,

894
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: I only have Lester at plus one forty six. I mean,

895
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: if you look at the two matches these two teams

896
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,280
Speaker 1: faced off against last season, Lester beat them to one

897
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 1: in both meetings, but XG was lesser two point eight

898
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 1: to two point six in total, so it was pretty

899
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 1: close between the two matches. So I love Brentford. Here

900
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 1: my plus half a goal, minus one twenty I got

901
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: played up to minus one twenty seven minus one thirty

902
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: somewhere in there. I really do love the beat. I

903
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 1: think this is a perfect positive versus negative regression match

904
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 1: to open up the season.

905
00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 5: Brentford like Crystal Palace, a team that we often bet on.

906
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:28,480
Speaker 1: And well, Anthony hate them now. I don't understand he

907
00:40:28,560 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 1: now hates them. He now he's I just don't get it.

908
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 2: I said this on the preview. I said this on the.

909
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 1: Past here and now you just want to go off and.

910
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 4: And Ray I said this on the preview podcast and

911
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 4: it was I'm probably gonna show value on Brentford just

912
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 4: because of how my numbers work, and the market hates them.

913
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:46,640
Speaker 2: So I'm probably going to be betting on them. But

914
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 2: I think we as a group may be too high

915
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:49,399
Speaker 2: on them.

916
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 4: You think that were too Although although Michel Dam's gone,

917
00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 4: that's an exciting sign.

918
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:56,160
Speaker 2: I think that's a good signing.

919
00:40:56,200 --> 00:40:58,520
Speaker 4: Obviously he's not playing this weekend, but I do think

920
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 4: that is a good signing. Who He's like Ericson Junior

921
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 4: in a way, not because they're both Danish attacking midfielders

922
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 4: and because Damn Guard like took over for him when

923
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 4: he got uh when he had the heart attack at

924
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 4: the Euros. But like Dam's Guard has a similar kind

925
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 4: of profile, you like, you know, gets on the ball,

926
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,760
Speaker 4: makes good passes, can create a little.

927
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:14,320
Speaker 2: Bit offset pieces.

928
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 4: So I do think that is an interesting addition in

929
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 4: terms of long term But again, you know, we're putting

930
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 4: a lot on Tony and weimo here until that dams

931
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 4: Guard gets in the team and the two of them

932
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 4: there next yep for ninety was kind of bad.

933
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 1: So I got Keen Lois Potter Baby.

934
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 2: And again another interesting signing. Like I think they're a

935
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 2: well run club.

936
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:32,880
Speaker 4: I just I just think that, you know, maybe I'm

937
00:41:32,880 --> 00:41:34,960
Speaker 4: getting a little two pulled in by like the gravity

938
00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 4: of the of the second year syndrome. But it's gonna

939
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 4: be interesting this year with Brentford. They are them and

940
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 4: probably Lester actually arguably are the two teams with I

941
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 4: think the widest bars of how this season could possibly go.

942
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,719
Speaker 5: But like I said, we do like Benning Brentford. We

943
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 5: do like Benet Crystal Palace, a team.

944
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 4: That we all be betting Brentford plenty, I mean like

945
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 4: gets and they got in match week two.

946
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: I mean, guess they have west Ham at home.

947
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:01,439
Speaker 1: There are Manchester United at home.

948
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 5: A perfect segue here speaking of United at home, I

949
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 5: just want seventy taking on another team that we love

950
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 5: to bet, Brighton.

951
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 3: They're five to.

952
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 5: One on the money line that draw plus two ninety.

953
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 5: This is another nine am kickoff on Sunday.

954
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 3: I think if you go back and listen.

955
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,799
Speaker 5: To the preview pod, Anthony and I were a little

956
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:22,680
Speaker 5: skeptical about Brighton this year, just compared to what we've

957
00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 5: seen out of them under Graham Potter over like the

958
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 5: last the previous eighteen months. But I still think that

959
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 5: if you're giving me five to one, which should still

960
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 5: be a very comfortable, you know, mid table eight ninth

961
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 5: to twelfth place team against Manchester United, who were already

962
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 5: seeing chaos at this team even under ten Hog, like

963
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 5: Ronaldo and a couple other players left there preseason friendly

964
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 5: gets Ryo Vacano early and ten Hogg said he was

965
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 5: very upset about it or whatever. So there's already all

966
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 5: this unrest with the team that was completely unsettled last season.

967
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 5: So if you're just if you're gonna give me five

968
00:42:57,040 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 5: to one on a solid team and one where we

969
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 5: already see you know the chaos that I was alluding to.

970
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,520
Speaker 3: This is the game I'm alluding to. We're going to

971
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 3: see one.

972
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 5: If we're going to see one, quote unquote crazy results.

973
00:43:07,120 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 5: It might not seem that crazy to us because we

974
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 5: like Brighton, but to the kind of greater soccer world,

975
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 5: you know, this will be a big deal if Brighton

976
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 5: go to the Theater of Dreams and take three points

977
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 5: in Ted Hoggs debut with United, and I think that

978
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 5: their full value to do it, Like five to one

979
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,439
Speaker 5: is a great number for a team that punches up very,

980
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 5: very well.

981
00:43:25,200 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 3: So give me the Seagulls.

982
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:29,120
Speaker 5: I'm going to fade United at five to one basically

983
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 5: with any team. Anthony, what about you?

984
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, we just talked about like widest air bars, like

985
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 4: most interesting, like we don't know what's going to happen.

986
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 2: Like I feel like Brighton is the opposite.

987
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 4: I feel like we kind of know that they have

988
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 4: a high floor because of their manager and because of

989
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:42,919
Speaker 4: their talent, and they have a pretty low ceiling because

990
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 4: of their talent and their lack of additions.

991
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 2: So I don't understand this number. And I'm a fan.

992
00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 4: Of United relative to the two of you, but like,

993
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 4: Spurs didn't even close this high against Brighton at home

994
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 4: in March April when they played Arsenal didn't close this high.

995
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 4: They were like minus one sixty, minus one seventy. Now

996
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 4: you're getting minus one eighty on United. Yeah, I'm going

997
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 4: to take Brighton plus one and they lose by two.

998
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 4: They lose by two, but yeah, I make United a

999
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 4: modest home favorite, not minus one eighty.

1000
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 5: I think it was Wolves last year that United opened

1001
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 5: up against it, and it was a similar kind of conversation.

1002
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 1: It was actually Leads leads five mil off of right

1003
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: right leads.

1004
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: And five to one right.

1005
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,680
Speaker 4: It was it was like four goals and three minutes

1006
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,319
Speaker 4: off of all from outside the box.

1007
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 5: Like it was out of control exactly, and and I

1008
00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 5: mean it could go that way. I mean, the odds

1009
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 5: are telling you that it's it's likely to be a

1010
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:36,080
Speaker 5: United win.

1011
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 2: Leeds was five to one.

1012
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 5: Actually, yeah, so we're we're seeing a similar setup here.

1013
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 5: Although I mean, I think Brighton proof to us and

1014
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 5: Leads proof to us last year that they're a better

1015
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 5: team than than Leads were, And it's kind of the

1016
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,919
Speaker 5: opposite thing where it's like the market was super high

1017
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 5: on leads after that first season and you were still

1018
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,759
Speaker 5: getting five to one. All right, BJ, I know you're

1019
00:44:57,800 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 5: where you're going for this one, but but tell us

1020
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 5: why you love to see Eagles here.

1021
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. So the ten Hogs system, it's going to be interesting.

1022
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 1: So listen, I'm very very down on you. Edit and

1023
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: ten Hog could get the system working, and it could

1024
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: you know, it could work out towards the middle or

1025
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 1: towards the end of the season, but right away, I'm

1026
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 1: very very concerned about United. So under ten Hoog, essentially

1027
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: they played a four to three three. They would push

1028
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: their you know, center backs out. They'd have a central

1029
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,400
Speaker 1: midfielder that come in and would operate that kind of

1030
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 1: ball controlling role. From the build up play, you can

1031
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: see why United wanted Frankie Deyong so bad, because they

1032
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 1: needed a central midfielder like I don't know, a Paul

1033
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: Pogbook that could drop into that type of role and

1034
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,759
Speaker 1: play well under pressure. They don't really have that with

1035
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: mctomenay and Fred in my opinion. You know, others may

1036
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 1: say so, I don't think they're that type of midfielder.

1037
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 1: So you don't have that. You're facing a Brighton team

1038
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: that was top five and passes per defensive action second

1039
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:53,120
Speaker 1: in pressure success rate last season. So you can see

1040
00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 1: where things might be able to fall apart for United.

1041
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 1: And then you take the fact that ten Hoog is

1042
00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 1: very used to having the ball. I mean I controlled

1043
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: sixty two percent possession at you know, in the Ara

1044
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 1: de Visa. Well, now they're going to face a Brighton

1045
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 1: team that was fourth in average possession last year and

1046
00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: it's going to be able to control what maybe more

1047
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 1: than fifty percent against them. So is United going to

1048
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: be set up well to play out of possession? I'm

1049
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: not so sure, and I think we're overlooking the fact

1050
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,359
Speaker 1: that these two teams played the second to last game

1051
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: of the season May seven, three months ago, and Brighton

1052
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,120
Speaker 1: drilled them for nothing and the two point eight to

1053
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 1: point eight expected goals. So how is United minus one eighty?

1054
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: I get it it's at Old Trafford, but minus one

1055
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: eighty at home you could say, oh, well, no Pasuma,

1056
00:46:37,440 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: no Cookrea. I understand that those are huge losses for Brighton,

1057
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 1: but Graham Potter has shown that his system is set

1058
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: up to play extreme. You know, the system does work.

1059
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:49,680
Speaker 1: They lost Ben White and they still were a very,

1060
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: very good defensive team. So I think the lost cookery

1061
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 1: is going to hurt, but not as much as many

1062
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:58,000
Speaker 1: people are making it out to be. So yeah, I mean,

1063
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 1: I to Anthony's pot about a project. I have United

1064
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty six at home, So yeah, I

1065
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,879
Speaker 1: don't understand. I mean, who is laying minus one eighty

1066
00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,360
Speaker 1: with United to open up the season. I don't understand

1067
00:47:10,360 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: this number at all.

1068
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think of all the all the numbers on

1069
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 5: the board, it's the one that if you looked at

1070
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 5: ten games, the one that jumped out the most. You know,

1071
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 5: if you look at the three three way money line,

1072
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 5: so you're looking at ten games, three listed odds each,

1073
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,239
Speaker 5: that's the one that jumped out to me first was

1074
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 5: the United number.

1075
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:28,480
Speaker 1: I mean, bright had a better expected cold a French

1076
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 1: than them last year. I mean it was granted it

1077
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:33,200
Speaker 1: was point one better plus point four to plus point three,

1078
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:35,720
Speaker 1: but I mean, come on, what are we doing here?

1079
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 3: Like this is crazy?

1080
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 5: We'll take it, right, We'll take it obviously.

1081
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,400
Speaker 1: We'll watch and you know, we'll watch United win like

1082
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:44,760
Speaker 1: I don't know, three nothing off of and maybe Brighton

1083
00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 1: turns back into what they were in the twenty twenty

1084
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: twenty one season, but oh well.

1085
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 3: I'll take it.

1086
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 5: You can give me five to one in this matchup

1087
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 5: and I'll get a bed at a hundred out of

1088
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 5: one hundred, as our dear friend Stuckey from the Big

1089
00:47:55,520 --> 00:47:58,360
Speaker 5: Bets on Campus podcast would say. Finally, we'll wrap up

1090
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 5: the Premier League slate with west hosting man City the

1091
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 5: champions back to back. The draw U plus four twenty

1092
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 5: five here City, obviously, you know, is a big favorite

1093
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 5: minus two eighty five on the road, and West Ham

1094
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 5: you're getting seven and a half to one. This is

1095
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,959
Speaker 5: the eleven thirty am kickoff on Sunday, so it will

1096
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 5: also be on an island. I think it could take

1097
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:21,320
Speaker 5: some time for City, this kind of new look city

1098
00:48:21,360 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 5: with a striker with an out and out striker in

1099
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 5: the squad in Erling Holland, to take some time to

1100
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 5: maybe gel. They lost a couple pieces that were very

1101
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 5: important to them in Gabrielle Jesus and rahiem Sterling over

1102
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 5: En Zanchenko right like, these were good, important kind of

1103
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:41,839
Speaker 5: roster squad players, and so I think it could take

1104
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 5: some time for this team to gel two bigger roles

1105
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 5: for players like Realish Foden and then obviously Holland to

1106
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 5: get used to the Premier League. So I could be

1107
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 5: talked into west Ham here and I might do it,

1108
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 5: but I'll wait to see where this number ends up.

1109
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 5: But it's west Ham or nothing for me, Anthony, any

1110
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 5: interest here?

1111
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:01,160
Speaker 2: Hat a ton?

1112
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,880
Speaker 4: These two teams did play toward the end of last season,

1113
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 4: kind of a crazy game. I think west Ham have

1114
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 4: the ability to take advantage of city, you know, being

1115
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 4: a little bit uncertain in defense right now, and you know,

1116
00:49:15,560 --> 00:49:19,359
Speaker 4: the center back situation is a little bit tenuous with

1117
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:21,840
Speaker 4: the injuries. We're not exactly sure what the first choice

1118
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,840
Speaker 4: is right now, and so that makes things interesting. You know,

1119
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 4: were we going to see Nathan Ak I'd like to

1120
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 4: fade that if possible, and so otherwise, you know, there's

1121
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 4: not a ton here.

1122
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:33,080
Speaker 2: I do think.

1123
00:49:33,280 --> 00:49:36,520
Speaker 4: West Ham has counter attacking ability to be a dangerous team.

1124
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 4: So maybe a both teams to score would be a

1125
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,919
Speaker 4: decent look price minus one fifteen, but otherwise I'm probably

1126
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:43,799
Speaker 4: staying away here. That would be the one look I had.

1127
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 4: Don't hate a plus one and a half either being

1128
00:49:46,320 --> 00:49:49,080
Speaker 4: at home, but ultimately probably passing.

1129
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, you'll get a good price on west Ham to

1130
00:49:51,120 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 5: be the first team to score too. I think no

1131
00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:55,479
Speaker 5: matter how you shake this one out, like the west

1132
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 5: Ham correlated bets or west hamp to score correlated bets

1133
00:49:58,200 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 5: are going to have value.

1134
00:49:59,480 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 3: BJ what do you think?

1135
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a past me. If I had to

1136
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 1: play anything, I would lean towards west Ham plus more

1137
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 1: and a half. But I can't really get there. You know,

1138
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: City is going to be obviously, I'm very interested to see.

1139
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:15,800
Speaker 1: You know, we saw in the Community Shield that they

1140
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: you know, they out created Liverpool and they looked pretty,

1141
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 1: you know, threatening on the attack. So you know west

1142
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 1: Ham's gonna be without a gird. Their their new center

1143
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:26,959
Speaker 1: back signing, so it's probably gonna be Obana and Zuma again,

1144
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 1: which could prove to be a good center back pairing,

1145
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 1: you know, but I'm not so sure. So this one

1146
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: is just a pass and wait and see on both

1147
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 1: these teams for me.

1148
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 3: All right. That wraps up the Premier League.

1149
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:41,080
Speaker 5: The Bundesliga and League oh are also back this weekend,

1150
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:45,680
Speaker 5: so we'll start in Germany. I'll start. I mean, it's appropriate,

1151
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 5: I just got to do it. Minds plus one twenty

1152
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 5: five against bocum Mines on the road. But this team

1153
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 5: is first in big chances allowed last year in the Bundesliga,

1154
00:50:54,880 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 5: so a great defensive team Bochum fifteenth and creating big chances.

1155
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:00,840
Speaker 5: So I think this one's sets up pretty well for

1156
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,359
Speaker 5: Mines to get off and running a team that we're

1157
00:51:04,400 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 5: all pretty high on once again this season. Do you

1158
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 5: get them twenty five to one? I believe still to

1159
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 5: finish top four in the Budesliga. So that's a good

1160
00:51:12,200 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 5: one to play if you want to root along with

1161
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 5: us on our boys in mins BJ. What about you?

1162
00:51:18,200 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? I like Stutgart RB Leipzig both teams to score

1163
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 1: at minus one thirty five. So Stutgart they did. They

1164
00:51:27,560 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 1: were pretty They were in pretty unlucky defensively last year,

1165
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:33,240
Speaker 1: but they still allowed over one point five expected goals

1166
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 1: per match. Their goalkeeper Mueller was a catastrophe minus over

1167
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,040
Speaker 1: at minus ten post shot actually plus minus. I expect

1168
00:51:40,080 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 1: him to regress, you know, back towards the mean, but

1169
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,480
Speaker 1: you know he's facing Leipzig offense or to Desco that

1170
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 1: averaged close to two expected goals per match. But I

1171
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:52,120
Speaker 1: do think Stutgart will improve offensively because Kalazch is going

1172
00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 1: to be back. He only played fifteen matches last year

1173
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:58,360
Speaker 1: when he was in the lineup, Stutgart averaged one point

1174
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 1: five to eight expected goals from Without him, there are

1175
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 1: one point one four, So he makes a pretty drastic

1176
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:06,279
Speaker 1: difference for them. Their shots for ninety go up by

1177
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: about two and their big scoring chances per match one

1178
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 1: up by about a half. So I expect Stutgart to

1179
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,879
Speaker 1: improve offensively. So I think this one has potential for

1180
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:19,799
Speaker 1: chaos and be really up and down style game. I mean,

1181
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 1: we saw hypes that give up five to Bayern in

1182
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:26,359
Speaker 1: the in the Super Cups, so I'm expecting chaos here.

1183
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: So both team to score minus one thirty five. I'd

1184
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:29,799
Speaker 1: probably played up to minus one forty five.

1185
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:32,879
Speaker 5: Anthony, you're a weekly donation in the Bundesliga.

1186
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:34,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean there's just some numbers.

1187
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 3: You got a bet in this league and you have.

1188
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 2: To hold your breath and kind of just pray.

1189
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:40,480
Speaker 4: And this is one of them, you know, Lebracusen endortment

1190
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 4: under three and a half. This game always features a

1191
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 4: ton of stupidity, a ton of wide open play and

1192
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 4: crazy transitions and dumb mistakes that lead to goals.

1193
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 2: I mean last year there was like Kanji.

1194
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 4: Just passed it to one of the louson players and

1195
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 4: then just tapped it into the open net.

1196
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 2: There was a goal yere, you know.

1197
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,439
Speaker 4: So there's always dumb things that occur in this match.

1198
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 4: But let's let's take a step back a little bit.

1199
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 4: Leverkusen last year benefited from bad goalkeeper play to the

1200
00:53:05,160 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 4: tune of about nine goals over their expected goals. So

1201
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 4: that was just opponents goalkeepers making mistakes not saving shots.

1202
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 4: Relative to the post shot numbers that we know from

1203
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:15,680
Speaker 4: fb REF, that was nine.

1204
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:17,040
Speaker 2: That was the second worst.

1205
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 4: The next team at the top of the list Dortmund

1206
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:23,400
Speaker 4: seventeen goals. So you're looking at two attacks who are

1207
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:26,080
Speaker 4: good but not nearly as good as those numbers indicate.

1208
00:53:26,120 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 4: And now you're introducing some uncertainty. Dortmund loses early Holland

1209
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:32,799
Speaker 4: they have Kermetta Yemi coming in. They have holl Air

1210
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:35,399
Speaker 4: coming in, but holl Air's out, so we're not quite

1211
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 4: sure what we're getting from the Dortmund attack. And I'm

1212
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,759
Speaker 4: very high on Leverkusen, but Flouri inverts is still out

1213
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 4: and he is one of their better attackers, creators, kind

1214
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:45,720
Speaker 4: of a kaih Haverty type but a little bit different.

1215
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 4: Vertz is very good, but he's not playing so I think.

1216
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,920
Speaker 4: And they have Adam Holeck coming in a new striker

1217
00:53:52,960 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 4: to pair with Schick, So there is a little bit

1218
00:53:55,600 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 4: of a chance that these teams just come out a

1219
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 4: little bit slow, and I'm going to try to bet

1220
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,280
Speaker 4: against that and take the under three and a half

1221
00:54:01,360 --> 00:54:03,880
Speaker 4: on opening weekend in the top spear of the weekend.

1222
00:54:04,280 --> 00:54:06,800
Speaker 5: All right, real quickly in league, Oh, Anthony, let's just

1223
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 5: go right back to you.

1224
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1225
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:09,560
Speaker 4: So, I'm going to try to, you know, do a

1226
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 4: pick every week in league on this year we had

1227
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 4: a lot of fun with it at the end of

1228
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 4: the season. France was good to me, and I'm going

1229
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:16,879
Speaker 4: to start with the most overrated team in the league.

1230
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 4: It's not I'm going to fade them with Angiers. I

1231
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:21,400
Speaker 4: just think the price is wrong. I think Gonjiers should

1232
00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 4: be a solid home favorite. Their line is a toss up,

1233
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 4: So give me Angiers, who was better last season projects

1234
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 4: to be better this season at home on the drawn.

1235
00:54:30,000 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 2: To bet line. Most exciting game of the weekend Angier

1236
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 2: versus not.

1237
00:54:34,400 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 3: Beja.

1238
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 5: I would have hit you.

1239
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go for even a lesser exciting game. Marseille

1240
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,879
Speaker 1: versus Reems sounds exciting. It's gonna be really exciting because

1241
00:54:42,880 --> 00:54:46,360
Speaker 1: Marseille finished seconds last year, but they honestly weren't that

1242
00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 1: impressive Offensively. They were fifth in nextually four fifth and

1243
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 1: shots for ninety seventh and big scoring chances. Their penalty

1244
00:54:52,040 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 1: luck was incredible. They had ten penalties, which was tied

1245
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: for the most in league. From open play, they only

1246
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 1: averaged one point one five x cheaper man an opening weekend.

1247
00:55:01,400 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 1: They're going to face probably the most conservative team in France.

1248
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 1: I mean, Reims was tenth and non penalty expected goals

1249
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 1: allowed last year. They were seventeenth in shots per ninety

1250
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 1: but fourth in big scoring chances a lot. I mean

1251
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 1: these two teams played as recently as April twenty fourth

1252
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 1: and there was only a total of one point three

1253
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:21,000
Speaker 1: goals expected goals created, with Marseille winning one nothing reams.

1254
00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:23,880
Speaker 1: They literally were one of the worst offensive teams in France,

1255
00:55:24,000 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 1: average only point eight nine non penalty expect goals for

1256
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 1: match and their best striker, Hugo Ikateke, just got sold

1257
00:55:30,080 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: to PSG. So I love under two and a half goals,

1258
00:55:33,280 --> 00:55:35,320
Speaker 1: which is currently had even money at most books. So

1259
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 1: I think it's to be very difficult for you these

1260
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 1: teams to create chances. I have two point one to

1261
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 1: three goals projected, so under two and a half for

1262
00:55:41,320 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: me in Marseille versus Reams.

1263
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 5: And now we get to stroll over to our favorite

1264
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:48,759
Speaker 5: part of the show, Our underdog parlay. Will give out

1265
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,320
Speaker 5: our three favorite underdog bets across Europe for the given

1266
00:55:52,840 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 5: game slate, and then we'll tell you what the parlay

1267
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 5: is if you put all three of them together. We

1268
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 5: came close a couple of heart breaking many tis.

1269
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Spurs led one nil at Anfield and that

1270
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 4: was that was the moment. We're doing Brentford Brentford on

1271
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:08,080
Speaker 4: a Monday, that was we needed them to win.

1272
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:08,760
Speaker 2: They got crushed.

1273
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 4: And then there was a one point like a French

1274
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:13,840
Speaker 4: League match that we needed BJ needed and that.

1275
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:17,319
Speaker 1: They nothing on Marseille and then they give up five

1276
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 1: straight goals in like twenty minutes.

1277
00:56:18,840 --> 00:56:20,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, and then there was help.

1278
00:56:20,320 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 1: Probably run a little better with block this year.

1279
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:23,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, we've had some bad luck on those.

1280
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,480
Speaker 5: But if you if your heart can't stand that kind

1281
00:56:27,520 --> 00:56:30,240
Speaker 5: of pain, maybe skip ahead, you know, forty five seconds

1282
00:56:30,280 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 5: and you'll hear our best bets in the Premier League.

1283
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:34,799
Speaker 5: As we close the show with that every week. All right,

1284
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 5: my favorite underdog I like Brentford plus two sixty against Leicester.

1285
00:56:38,680 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 5: It's quite simply. Don't think these two teams are that

1286
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 5: far apart. Leicester is a team I'm selling this season.

1287
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 5: Brentford a team that I'm still you know, I'm not

1288
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,120
Speaker 5: as high as I was on them going into last year,

1289
00:56:50,120 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 5: but I'm still still into the Bees, baby uh. In

1290
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 5: terms of their underlying metrics, I think Brentford was the

1291
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:58,240
Speaker 5: better team last season. So give me the Bees buzz

1292
00:56:58,239 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 5: buzz as my first underdog of the season. BJ what

1293
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:01,399
Speaker 5: about you?

1294
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:04,600
Speaker 1: Yeah? Brighton five to one at Manchester United. This line

1295
00:57:04,640 --> 00:57:07,160
Speaker 1: We've already mentioned it is pretty crazy. Brighton a team

1296
00:57:07,160 --> 00:57:10,040
Speaker 1: that profiles very well against the Big six, you know,

1297
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 1: top five team in terms of average possession, top five

1298
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 1: pressing team, and also top seven at playing through pressure.

1299
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: So if ten Hogs is able to implement a system

1300
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 1: at least for this first match and manche United somehow

1301
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 1: turns into this pressing giant that they were not under Ragnik, well,

1302
00:57:24,360 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: Brighton's still well equipped to play through pressure. And Brighton

1303
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 1: just smashed them for nothing the second to last game

1304
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 1: of last season. So Brighton five to one for me

1305
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 1: is my underdog and Anthony.

1306
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 2: Good weekend for underdogs.

1307
00:57:34,040 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 4: Since twenty twelve, if you bet every underdog of plus

1308
00:57:37,320 --> 00:57:39,440
Speaker 4: two hundred better in the Premier League, you'd be up

1309
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 4: one hundred dollars on each you'd be up two thousand dollars,

1310
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 4: so about a twenty four percent return on investment on

1311
00:57:43,640 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 4: opening weekend. Uncertainty, players getting fit, all that factors in

1312
00:57:48,080 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 4: teams may not play to their true talent levels.

1313
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 2: More so that just increases the variance for underdogs to

1314
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:52,920
Speaker 2: do well.

1315
00:57:53,120 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 4: That being said, I'm going to the Bundesliga for my

1316
00:57:55,120 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 4: underdog because I do think the same principles apply in

1317
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 4: other leagues. We don't have the data four, but I

1318
00:58:00,640 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 4: think Leverkusen plus two ten Dortmund is a team that

1319
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 4: I am in the long term.

1320
00:58:05,920 --> 00:58:08,440
Speaker 2: Extremely impressed by the changes they made.

1321
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 4: But there were so many changes in midfield, defense and

1322
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 4: attack that I think there's a chance they start slow

1323
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:17,280
Speaker 4: under edinterzik Leverkusen I think less of a chance of that.

1324
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:22,160
Speaker 4: Leverkusen also excellent in space, so much pace, so much

1325
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 4: ability to just destroy you in transition that I think

1326
00:58:24,920 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 4: that this could be a real toss up of a game.

1327
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:28,840
Speaker 2: So at plus two ten, I'm going to take Levercouson.

1328
00:58:29,080 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 5: So it's Brentford, Brighton and Leverkusen. You parlay all three

1329
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 5: of those teams sixty six to one. A good way

1330
00:58:34,600 --> 00:58:37,160
Speaker 5: to start the season if it comes through. All right, now,

1331
00:58:37,160 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 5: we'll talk about our best bets in the Premier League

1332
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 5: for match week one.

1333
00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 3: Bj Let's start with you.

1334
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:46,320
Speaker 1: Brentford plus half a goal at Lester. I think it's

1335
00:58:46,320 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 1: a perfect positive aggression meets negative aggression. Brentford was about

1336
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 1: seven goals behind in terms of what they're actual versus

1337
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 1: the're expected. Lester overperformed drastically last season. You have also

1338
00:58:58,160 --> 00:59:01,600
Speaker 1: had a Lester team that we've already met, is horrible

1339
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,840
Speaker 1: on set pieces. They allowed nineteen goals off of set pieces.

1340
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:08,480
Speaker 1: Brentford top five and goals and expect goals off of

1341
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 1: set pieces last year.

1342
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 3: Saw.

1343
00:59:10,840 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 1: This line is way over price for Leicester. I love

1344
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: the Bes plus half a goal.

1345
00:59:14,240 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 5: Your favorite underdog was Brighton. Your best bet was Brentford.

1346
00:59:17,440 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 5: My favorite underdog was Brentford. My best bet Brighton five

1347
00:59:20,640 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 5: to one against Manchester United. Sometimes you just see a

1348
00:59:24,280 --> 00:59:26,760
Speaker 5: number and it jumps out at you. At minus one

1349
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 5: seventy Manchester United against Brighton at home. Even it's way

1350
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:32,080
Speaker 5: too high.

1351
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 3: This Brighton team is getting no respect in this market.

1352
00:59:35,320 --> 00:59:37,560
Speaker 5: I think maybe people are buying into a ten hog

1353
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 5: revolution starting match week one. There's already a lot of

1354
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,520
Speaker 5: chaos at United before the season even started, So give

1355
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 5: me Brighton. I know that there's been some important players

1356
00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 5: moved out, but I trust Graham Potter. Think he's one

1357
00:59:48,440 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 5: of the best managers in the world. So if you're

1358
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:52,440
Speaker 5: going to give me five to one to fade a

1359
00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 5: United team at this moment, I'm going to take it

1360
00:59:54,680 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 5: basically with any other team in the Premier League. So

1361
00:59:57,200 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 5: give me the Seagulls. Five to one is my favorite bet.

1362
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 5: Start off with a bang, Anthony, what about you?

1363
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go Palace plus a half at plus

1364
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:07,200
Speaker 4: one oh five against Arsenal on Friday to start the season.

1365
01:00:07,560 --> 01:00:10,280
Speaker 4: Arsenal had a great preseason. They've been overvalued because of that.

1366
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,280
Speaker 4: They do quietly have a few key injuries left back,

1367
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 4: right back, potentially in the midfield as well with M L.

1368
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 2: Smith Row.

1369
01:00:17,120 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 4: I love Arsenal, I think generally as a chance to

1370
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:21,760
Speaker 4: compete for the top four, but I do think a

1371
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,480
Speaker 4: road trip to Selhurst Park is about as difficult as

1372
01:00:24,480 --> 01:00:27,920
Speaker 4: it's going to get on opening weekend. Palace top six defensively.

1373
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:30,720
Speaker 4: Last year Palace Top six at home took a lot

1374
01:00:30,760 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 4: of scalps off the Big Six, so I do love

1375
01:00:32,680 --> 01:00:34,760
Speaker 4: Palace plus a half. I think they get a result

1376
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:37,000
Speaker 4: on the first game of the season, and with.

1377
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:40,840
Speaker 5: That, our first episode of the season comes to a

1378
01:00:40,920 --> 01:00:44,760
Speaker 5: close for Beach at Cunningham for Anthony Debundo, IM Michael Leibaugh,

1379
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 5: thank you for listening to Wonder Goal and good luck

1380
01:00:46,440 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 5: with all your bets this weekend

1381
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 4: And join our fantasy league link in the show notes.