WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Ben Laidler & Mike Green

0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:15.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:18.680
<v Speaker 2>A single best idea and the first conversation we have today.

0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:22.520
<v Speaker 2>I really need to explain the heritage of what we

0:00:22.600 --> 0:00:28.080
<v Speaker 2>do here is we don't prepare any questioning and long

0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:31.400
<v Speaker 2>ago and far away, I just I have no memory

0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:35.239
<v Speaker 2>of preparing for this. We came up with the idea

0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:40.280
<v Speaker 2>of rip up the script. I detest scripts with a passion.

0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.840
<v Speaker 2>We have scripted name and title of guests, and that's

0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:49.440
<v Speaker 2>really about all. We have wonderful biographies prepared by our team,

0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.479
<v Speaker 2>and there'll be a research note from somebody, or a

0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.240
<v Speaker 2>couple paragraphs or that. Maybe somebody will send in three

0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:59.640
<v Speaker 2>research notes. To be honest, I'll glance at them looking

0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:03.880
<v Speaker 2>for key ideas. But always we've had this idea and

0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:06.800
<v Speaker 2>the jargon is to prepare an audible where we rip

0:01:06.920 --> 0:01:10.120
<v Speaker 2>up the script. You get lucky if you have someone

0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:13.800
<v Speaker 2>like Ben Laidler now Bradesco, who has been the number

0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.840
<v Speaker 2>one call in this bull market going back to Christmas

0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:20.319
<v Speaker 2>Eve of twenty eighteen, and we're just to talk to

0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:24.039
<v Speaker 2>Ben Ladler about the stock market, about the nasdack up,

0:01:24.040 --> 0:01:28.720
<v Speaker 2>all this attention with technology, Microsoft earnings this afternoon and such.

0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.559
<v Speaker 2>But I had to rip up the script and asked

0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:37.840
<v Speaker 2>Ben Ladler about Venezuela, Latin America and his great em

0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:41.280
<v Speaker 2>experience going back to JP Morgan decades ago.

0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:48.320
<v Speaker 3>I think most investors are unfortunately spectators to this. Unfortunately,

0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:52.320
<v Speaker 3>i've the last thirty years Venezuela has just shrunk to

0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:57.000
<v Speaker 3>become a fraction besides economy, stock market, bond market that

0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:01.840
<v Speaker 3>it used to be. Hopes are the altar this turns

0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.360
<v Speaker 3>around and we see a reintegration of what used to

0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.720
<v Speaker 3>be one of the biggest richest economies in Latin America

0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:10.600
<v Speaker 3>back into the region. But right now I think, unfortunately

0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.960
<v Speaker 3>we're right at the beginning of that, or maybe at

0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:14.560
<v Speaker 3>the very earliest stages of that.

0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:18.519
<v Speaker 2>Ben Laidler and I can't say enough for the delicacies

0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:22.840
<v Speaker 2>of compliance and all that these are sometimes difficult questions

0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:25.799
<v Speaker 2>for our guests to answer given their remit of where

0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.680
<v Speaker 2>they are. We thank Ben Laidlor and Bridesco for some

0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:33.360
<v Speaker 2>real informative clarity there on the unrest in Venezuela. Also

0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.000
<v Speaker 2>thank you to ros Matheson, head of all of our

0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:40.240
<v Speaker 2>government coverage, for her clarity there on just the agenda

0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:44.280
<v Speaker 2>of Venezuela trying to get to Wednesday morning. We'll have

0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:48.680
<v Speaker 2>continued coverage from our offices in Caracas as well our

0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:53.000
<v Speaker 2>news bureau, I should say, in Caracas. So much coming up.

0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:54.880
<v Speaker 2>It is the busiest week of the summer. A FED

0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.280
<v Speaker 2>meeting tomorrow. We'll have the FED decides myself, John Pharaoh,

0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:00.560
<v Speaker 2>Lisa Bramwenttz will bring that to you at the one

0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:04.480
<v Speaker 2>thirty hour in the afternoon. Much more coming up as well,

0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:08.120
<v Speaker 2>Microsoft earnings to dive into the tech frenzy of the

0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:11.240
<v Speaker 2>next two three days. We'll do that in Nvidia, by

0:03:11.280 --> 0:03:14.200
<v Speaker 2>the way, later this month, much later, I believe the

0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:18.480
<v Speaker 2>date's August twenty eighth. Within this is the new dialogue

0:03:18.480 --> 0:03:20.639
<v Speaker 2>and the FED setting the marker for that was the

0:03:20.720 --> 0:03:23.800
<v Speaker 2>vice chairman, the former vice chairman of the FED, Alan

0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:27.079
<v Speaker 2>Blinder of Princeton. He's been a wonderful friend of the show,

0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:30.560
<v Speaker 2>who wrote a blistering Wall Street Journal piece on the

0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:35.880
<v Speaker 2>FED and seasonality. Mike Green quite astute. It's simplify us

0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:40.440
<v Speaker 2>at management. Mike Green on the silliness of our data dependency.

0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.120
<v Speaker 1>Anecdotes are data in one form or another, right, but

0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:46.120
<v Speaker 1>we need to actually have a theoretical model and understanding

0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.800
<v Speaker 1>of what's really going on. We are looking at components

0:03:49.880 --> 0:03:53.360
<v Speaker 1>of inflation that are deeply lagging, things like insurance that

0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:55.960
<v Speaker 1>ensures the value of the car as of last year,

0:03:56.200 --> 0:03:59.200
<v Speaker 1>right that it relates to behaviors of consumers who are

0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:04.920
<v Speaker 1>increasingly and deciding to sue people for compensation in a

0:04:05.000 --> 0:04:07.480
<v Speaker 1>variety of ways. We're seeing this insurance fraud is rising.

0:04:08.360 --> 0:04:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Those are not inflationary. Those are market pressures and market powers,

0:04:11.600 --> 0:04:13.880
<v Speaker 1>and the answer to them, of course, is fewer people

0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:17.000
<v Speaker 1>drive cars. That's going to end up playing out even

0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:18.120
<v Speaker 1>as the FED reacts.

0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.200
<v Speaker 2>Mike Green, a Simplify Asset Management major shout out ed

0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:24.520
<v Speaker 2>Ludlow's visiting us in New York this week. We're going

0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:26.960
<v Speaker 2>to have him in a couple times through the week

0:04:27.000 --> 0:04:29.880
<v Speaker 2>and we'll do the big tech thing in San Francisco

0:04:29.960 --> 0:04:33.200
<v Speaker 2>in that But we did a wonderful segment today. Look

0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:37.560
<v Speaker 2>for that on our replay out at Bloomberg Podcasts out

0:04:37.600 --> 0:04:41.000
<v Speaker 2>at Bloomberg Surveillance. There you'll find the three hour replay.

0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:46.160
<v Speaker 2>Halfway through it is Ed Ludlow on his experiment of

0:04:46.240 --> 0:04:49.240
<v Speaker 2>driving at Tesla with no hands on the steering wheel,

0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.040
<v Speaker 2>and he's been fabulous about putting this out on Twitter

0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:58.159
<v Speaker 2>and frankly terrifying. Was just the trip across the Golden

0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:02.560
<v Speaker 2>Gate Bridge in San Francisco, and it was pretty good

0:05:02.600 --> 0:05:06.440
<v Speaker 2>and pretty smooth, but there was a butt. And I

0:05:06.560 --> 0:05:09.920
<v Speaker 2>tell you, I don't understand where this self driving thing

0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.279
<v Speaker 2>is going to. I do understand. We're on Apple CarPlay.

0:05:13.360 --> 0:05:16.960
<v Speaker 2>Probably he was listening on Apple CarPlay to Bloomberg Surveillance

0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:18.840
<v Speaker 2>at four a m. Or whatever in the morning in

0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:23.360
<v Speaker 2>San Francisco on Android Auto and of course subscribe to

0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:28.400
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Podcasts Our foundational effort on YouTube on Apple Podcasts.

0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:38.960
<v Speaker 2>This is single best idea