Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea and the single best idea is we
Speaker 2: understand it's a grind. We do economics, finance, investment, and
Speaker 2: international relations. There's high points, there's big interviews and all that,
Speaker 2: but part of it is just going from conversation to
Speaker 2: conversation with the many different opinions about where the market's going.
Speaker 2: We pay a little attention to who gets things right,
Speaker 2: but we really pay attention and study who got things wrong.
Speaker 2: It's something we're constantly dealing with and today was just
Speaker 2: an absolutely vintage day of different opinions. Anastasia Amorosa with
Speaker 2: us from Partners Group, many many others. Mike Wilson stopped
Speaker 2: by from Morgan Stanley. He was a Pinata two years
Speaker 2: ago on should you be in the market not be
Speaker 2: in the market. He sees a new bull market here,
Speaker 2: Wilson of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 1: As usual, the markets get ahead of this and what
Speaker 1: the markets are anticipating now, the bond market and the
Speaker 1: equity markets that the Fed will be cutting sometime in
Speaker 1: the next you know, two to six months, and you know,
Speaker 1: even our house call, I mean our house calls for
Speaker 1: no cuts this year, but then they have seven cuts
Speaker 1: next year. I mean, that's like wildly bullish for equities. Okay,
Speaker 1: so you know it's you almost had the perfect setup, Tom,
Speaker 1: because what you have now is lagging economic data, which
Speaker 1: is what the FED uses to make decisions, and you
Speaker 1: have you already have the equity market and earning visions
Speaker 1: telling you what's going to happen. So you know, they're
Speaker 1: looking backwards and they're going to be looking at lagging
Speaker 1: labor data, you know, and then of course lagging inflation data,
Speaker 1: which should come down ultimately later this year next year,
Speaker 1: and they're going to cut into that and but the
Speaker 1: but you know, there's not going to be a knock
Speaker 1: on negative effect for earnings revisions in the way that
Speaker 1: people kind of assume when you get that sort of
Speaker 1: decline in labor data. In fact, I would argue, because
Speaker 1: it's gradual that we're going to see revisions go up,
Speaker 1: because you know, when companies reduce headcount, it actually accrues
Speaker 1: to margins.
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson, there, Morgan Stanley, that's a very important observation.
Speaker 2: Have we even framed out the caution that we'll see
Speaker 2: in September thirty ending quarter Q three and as we
Speaker 2: go to the beginning of the year's earning season, call
Speaker 2: it you know, October sixteen, seventeenth, eighteenth and tech earnings
Speaker 2: October thirty, whatever those dates are. It's just fascinating to
Speaker 2: see if we get the reticence again, no growth, low
Speaker 2: single digit growth, mid single digit growth. Oops, once again
Speaker 2: a better than good quarter. Joining us Darryl Krunk from
Speaker 2: Wills Fargo. He's really really good at historic perspective. Just
Speaker 2: can't say enough about the joy the density of his excellence.
Speaker 2: Here's Daryl Krunk of Wills Fargo.
Speaker 3: I am elated about earnings, right, I mean, so we've
Speaker 3: been waiting through twenty three twenty four earning SketchUp with
Speaker 3: multiple expansion. I mean remember and recall first quarter earnings
Speaker 3: S and B seven percent revenue growth, fifteen percent earnings.
Speaker 3: This morning we're tracking six percent revenue growth, ten percent earnings.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: I will take that all day long.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: The margins are still holding up, so you're not seeing
Speaker 3: the erosion in margin deterioration that everybody was concerned about
Speaker 3: with higher prices. In the pass through effects yet of tariffs.
Speaker 3: Maybe they come in the back half of the year
Speaker 3: where we would stay away from We've just been bearish
Speaker 3: on small caps for a long time. I mean, it's
Speaker 3: interesting if you go back three years from right now
Speaker 3: and I invested in a money market fund at four percent,
Speaker 3: I outperformed small caps over the last three years.
Speaker 2: Joel Crack. There, it's an important observation there. It's done
Speaker 2: money market We ever heard that from Russ Kostriche today
Speaker 2: and Matt Brill as well. This idea of get the coupon,
Speaker 2: get some total return, the low yield days are over,
Speaker 2: and the total return, the risk adjusted total return rather
Speaker 2: in bonds is something to study, to study as well
Speaker 2: in our podcasts across the nation on Apple podcasts and Spotify.
Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal Tracy Alloway number one for Apple podcasts yesterday
Speaker 2: off their magnificent New York Times article that's odd lots.
Speaker 2: We're on YouTube podcasts at single best idea