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Speaker 1: On this episode of the News World. My guest today

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Speaker 1: is Tracy Schuchart, a senior economist for Ninja Trader Live.

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Speaker 1: And her role she delivers daily insights on key macroeconomic events,

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Speaker 1: analyzing their significance and how they act as a driving

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Speaker 1: force in the financial markets. She's just written two fascinating

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Speaker 1: articles about Venezuela on Substack, which caught my attention. The

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Speaker 1: Venezuelan oil narrative is pure theater and uninvestible. Why big

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Speaker 1: oil is apprehensive about Trump's Venezuela deal. I was fascinated

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Speaker 1: to hear her take on Venezuela, and I am very

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Speaker 1: pleased to welcome Tracy Schuecart as my guest. Tracy, welcome

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Speaker 1: and thank you for joining me on neutrald Well.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, the pleasure is allmine.

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Speaker 1: Before we had tiven Azuela. I'm just curious. Can you

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Speaker 1: tell us a little bit about your own background and

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Speaker 1: what you currently do as a senior economist for Ninja Trader.

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Speaker 2: Yes, so my background I started in the commodities world

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Speaker 2: at the Chicago Board of Trade, so that is my

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Speaker 2: background is specifically in commodities, and I am now with

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Speaker 2: Ninja Trader as their senior economist. Ninja Trader is the

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Speaker 2: first offer retail traders and on ramp to the world

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Speaker 2: of futures and has spent over twenty years educating and

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Speaker 2: equipping traders with best in class tools to participate in

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Speaker 2: the fast growing asset class of commodities and the futures markets.

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Speaker 2: And we now are streaming live every morning have a

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Speaker 2: macro show on Ninja Trader Live discussing all aspects of

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Speaker 2: the economy with an emphasis on the commodity markets.

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Speaker 1: So people want to get in on that, do they

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Speaker 1: then subscribe to Ninja Trader Live. Yep.

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Speaker 2: You can go to the YouTube channel and just hit

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Speaker 2: subscribe and notifications and it will notify you when we

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Speaker 2: are on air.

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Speaker 1: That's great. Well, I was truly fascinated with the depth

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Speaker 1: and complexity of your analysis on Venezuela. So could you

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Speaker 1: share with us why you think the current public narrative

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Speaker 1: is not giving us the full story.

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Speaker 2: I think the current narrative is wrong because I think

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Speaker 2: what people really need to be focusing on is and

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Speaker 2: I know that the administration keeps saying it's about oil,

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Speaker 2: but it's really about oil. It's about critical minerals as

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Speaker 2: well as the influence of China, Iran, and Russia on

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Speaker 2: the Western hemisphere, right in our backyard.

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Speaker 1: Why do you think the rare earth minerals are more

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Speaker 1: important than oil and analyzing Venezuela's importance in the modern world, Well.

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Speaker 2: I think we need to focus on critical minerals right now,

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Speaker 2: because you're solving the wrong problem with the wrong tools.

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Speaker 2: And so we have to realize when we look at Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: if we're just looking at this through like the crude lens,

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Speaker 2: this is incorrect. And what markets are completely missing is

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Speaker 2: that Venezuela sits on the largest known deposits of cold tan,

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Speaker 2: a rare earth element, as well as many other critical

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Speaker 2: minerals in the Western Hemisphere. The Ouronico mining arc contains

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Speaker 2: exactly the kind of materials the Pentagon needs to break

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Speaker 2: dependency on China, which currently controls sixty to ninety five

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Speaker 2: percent of global processing capacity for these critical minerals, and

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Speaker 2: the US is one hundred percent import Relian for twelve

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Speaker 2: critical minerals and over fifty percent rely it on twenty

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Speaker 2: eight to fifty of the minerals it deemed essential to

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Speaker 2: national security, and these materials can go to Toma Hawk

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Speaker 2: cruise missiles, laser guidance systems, fighter jets, radar systems, and

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Speaker 2: we know that the Pentagon has already allocated seven point

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Speaker 2: five billion dollars under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

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Speaker 2: specifically for critical mineral stockpiling, because this is an essential vulnerability,

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Speaker 2: and China has been operating buyers directly at Venezuelan mines

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Speaker 2: and moving these minerals through the Amazon through Colombia ports

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Speaker 2: to China for processing, and once they cross into Colombia

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Speaker 2: and blend with other sources, the origin becomes untraceable and

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Speaker 2: this creates compliance exposure for United States defense contractors unknowingly

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Speaker 2: using venerial minerals that were processed in China because we've

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Speaker 2: had sanctions on Venezuela. And the whole key to the

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Speaker 2: supply chain situation right now is for the US to

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Speaker 2: move away from China completely, who not only mines for

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Speaker 2: these across the globe, specifically in not only in their

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Speaker 2: own country, but also in Africa and in South America

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Speaker 2: right in our backyard, so they control the mining, and

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Speaker 2: then they're brought back to China for processing, so they

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Speaker 2: control the processing. The Western world needs to break free

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Speaker 2: of China and being completely reliant on China, and we

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Speaker 2: have seen this. We just saw this this year where

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Speaker 2: they put export controls on magnets that everybody needs, and

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Speaker 2: so this is extremely important for national security.

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Speaker 1: So in that sense, there's a much deeper, more immediate

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Speaker 1: threat than just oil.

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Speaker 2: When we look at the oil industry, you have to

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Speaker 2: realize that Venezuela has been in decades of decline as

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Speaker 2: far as their infrastructure is concerned. They went from a

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Speaker 2: three point five million barrel a day producer to about

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Speaker 2: eight hundred and eighty thousand barrels per day was the

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Speaker 2: last figure just a couple of weeks ago. Their infrastructure

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Speaker 2: projects have been completely disregarded and it is going to

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Speaker 2: cost one hundred to two hundred billion dollars to go

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Speaker 2: into Venezuela. That's lowballing it to fix the infrastructure and

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Speaker 2: get them back up to where they were before Chavez.

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Speaker 2: So this is a huge project. We've already seen oil

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Speaker 2: companies have said that they're not interested. We had Eggs

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Speaker 2: On Mobile, the world's largest player in the global markets,

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Speaker 2: saying Venezuela's uninvestable right now, and so oil companies are

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Speaker 2: not looking to jump into Venezuela. They've been burned in

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Speaker 2: Venezuela before Chevron. There's still owned twelve billion dollars that

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Speaker 2: they've never seen. Halliburton had to leave in twenty nineteen

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Speaker 2: because we had sanctions on that country, and so all

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Speaker 2: of the big players in the oil industry have been

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Speaker 2: burned too many times in that country. They're not looking

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Speaker 2: to go back there anytime soon, particularly when you have

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Speaker 2: them operating in Guyana, which is a much friendlier, stable

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Speaker 2: country and doing very well there. And so it really

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Speaker 2: isn't about oil because they don't produce that much. It

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Speaker 2: really is about more of the geopolitical issues and about

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Speaker 2: the national security issues of the critical minerals.

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Speaker 1: From that standpoint, why do you think the American explanation

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Speaker 1: has been so oil centric?

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Speaker 2: I think that it is an easy narrative to sell

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Speaker 2: to the public. Everybody understands the oil story, right, it

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Speaker 2: makes sense to them, and so I think that's an

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Speaker 2: easier issue that people can digest that narrative because they've

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Speaker 2: heard it before. I've heard a lot of people equate

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Speaker 2: this to Iraq, which is completely a different story than Iraq,

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Speaker 2: but that was the narrative back then, and so again

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Speaker 2: I think it's just an easy sell to the public,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's something that understand I don't think

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Speaker 2: people really grasp what it is about critical mineral supply,

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Speaker 2: how important it is to really move these supply chains

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Speaker 2: away from kind of an adversary that being in China,

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Speaker 2: and why it is so important to not only industrial

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Speaker 2: processes within the United States, but to our military.

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Speaker 1: Can you share with us why you think the Iranian,

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Speaker 1: Chinese and Russian involvement is a national security issue and

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Speaker 1: you deal with each of them separately in a way

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Speaker 1: that I found very very compelling. Did you sort of

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Speaker 1: share with us because it's a totally different narrative when

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Speaker 1: you think about how much Russia, China, and Iran are

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Speaker 1: involved in trying to work with Venezuela against the United States. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, And I think we can take them all three

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Speaker 2: separately because they all three operate in the country and

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Speaker 2: they have been for a while. We've just spoken about

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Speaker 2: Chinese and how they operate mining within the country, and

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Speaker 2: they have also loaned a lot of money to Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: So Venezuela has been paying back their debts to China

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Speaker 2: with oil purchases. Essentially, they're doing the same thing for

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Speaker 2: Russia because Russia's also lent them a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: So we have China in there with their mining. We

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Speaker 2: have the IRGC operating in the country. They have Iranian

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Speaker 2: weapons manufacturing in the Western Hemisphere.

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Speaker 1: There.

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Speaker 2: We had Marco Rubio confirmed in December of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: with intelligence services had documented for years that the IRGC

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Speaker 2: maintains an anchor present in Venezuela, with Hesbala operating alongside.

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Speaker 2: And this is in our backyard. This is operational infrastructure.

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Speaker 2: We have documented Iranian weapons transferred to Venezuela since twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty and they operate within a two hundred kilometer operational range,

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Speaker 2: significant enough to hit Florida if they wanted. So this

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Speaker 2: is again in our backyard, and these are confirmed weapon

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Speaker 2: systems within the country, and this is very very concerning

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Speaker 2: for the United States. We know also that there's existence

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Speaker 2: of Iranian drone manufacturing facilities twelve hundred miles away from Miami.

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Speaker 2: This is kind of a scary position for the United

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Speaker 2: States to be in, being that we consider Iran to

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Speaker 2: be a hostile nation to the United States, and then

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Speaker 2: on top of that, we have Russian military advisory missions

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Speaker 2: and systems there we know that there's over one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty Russian troops operating in Venezuela right and now,

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Speaker 2: leading what Ukrainian intelligence identifies as the Equator Task Force,

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Speaker 2: and this is not a symbolic presence. We also know

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Speaker 2: that Wagner Group also operates within the country. Venezuela military

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Speaker 2: operates Russian supplied SU thirty fighters armed with anti shift missiles,

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Speaker 2: you know, the same systems that force US Navy planners

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Speaker 2: in the nineteen nineties to develop specific countermeasures due to

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Speaker 2: their speed and flight profiles. So these are Russian weapons

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Speaker 2: operating in Venezuela, as with troops on the ground, with

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Speaker 2: Wagner Group, which is kind of not part of the

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Speaker 2: Russian government by any stretch of the imagination, but it

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Speaker 2: is a kind of a Russian paramilitary group that does

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Speaker 2: operate in several countries, sort of a proxy of the

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Speaker 2: Russian government, so to speak.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that there was sufficient grounds for us

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Speaker 1: to have said to the Venezuelans, if you do not

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Speaker 1: get rid of these three relationships, we will be compelled,

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Speaker 1: out of just national security to eliminate your government, because

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Speaker 1: you will clearly be actively working with countries who are

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Speaker 1: our enemies. Do you think there's enough evidence there that

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Speaker 1: that would have been a legitimate statement.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, and these are operations that the

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Speaker 2: Pentagon has been watching for a while, and you know,

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Speaker 2: certainly this has been in the news too, if you've

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Speaker 2: ever been able to kind of piece this all together.

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Speaker 2: And I think it just we hit a point where

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Speaker 2: things were getting likely a little too close for comfort.

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Speaker 2: Obviously I don't have access to classified information from the Pentagon,

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Speaker 2: but I would assume that these threats sort of hit

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Speaker 2: that threshold where we needed to act.

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Speaker 1: I've been shure that taking out Maduro and his wife

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Speaker 1: is not the same as getting rid of the Chevez

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Speaker 1: Maduro system. That all the key players are still there,

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Speaker 1: They're still in charge, they're still capable of killing any

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Speaker 1: of their opponents. I mean, do you think it's going

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Speaker 1: to take a lot more effort to turn the country around, Well.

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Speaker 2: It certainly is. It seems as though, at least at

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Speaker 2: face value, the current government, which we have the second

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Speaker 2: in charge is now in charge. So nothing has really

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Speaker 2: changed from a regime stamp points. The regime is still

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Speaker 2: leading that country, and so I think right now what

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Speaker 2: we are going to have to see is do we

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Speaker 2: have a transfer of power, Do we have a peaceful

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Speaker 2: transfer of to the opposition, or did we sort of

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Speaker 2: make a mistake in trusting the current regime. With Maduro

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Speaker 2: out of office. Again, as to your point, that really

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Speaker 2: didn't change anything. We still have the regime operating there,

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Speaker 2: so I would have to guess that at some point

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Speaker 2: they are going to have to have either an election

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Speaker 2: or the opposition party is going to have to take over.

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Speaker 2: So we'll have to see how those unfold. But I

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Speaker 2: agree with you, it's certainly unsettling that we did not

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Speaker 2: see a complete move over to the opposition group.

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Speaker 1: How much is very structed. You're still seeing the roadblocks

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Speaker 1: set up, You're still seeing the local criminal gangs operate,

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Speaker 1: who are really an extension of the regime, and you're

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Speaker 1: still seeing that anybody who is too overtly pro American

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Speaker 1: could be in danger are getting killed. That didn't sound

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Speaker 1: to me very much like we'd want a decisive victory.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say that is not a decisive victory,

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Speaker 2: and I think part of the reason is is because

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Speaker 2: this oil narratives that's out there. We got the oil. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's done, you know. Venezuela Wila would love to see

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Speaker 2: the restoration of their oil industry. I'm sure it afforded

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Speaker 2: them a lot of money. I don't think this is

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Speaker 2: over by any stretch of the imagination, just because it

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Speaker 2: really hasn't changed the in turtles of what is going

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Speaker 2: on in that country. And so I would say that

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Speaker 2: there is a very large possibility that we see more

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Speaker 2: operations in that country, whether we overtly hear about them

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Speaker 2: or not. We do have a history of paying coups

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Speaker 2: in other countries to sort of do our work for

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Speaker 2: us occasionally. I would not be surprised if you know

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Speaker 2: there's things going on strategically below the surface that we

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Speaker 2: probably are not privy to at this juncture.

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Speaker 1: I think part of Secretary Marco Rubio's goal as a

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Speaker 1: Miami politician whose parents came from Cuba is to find

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Speaker 1: leverage to automately break the Cuban communist dictatorship and return

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Speaker 1: Cuba to being a open country with easy trading and

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Speaker 1: with some kind of legitimate government. And I think Venezuela

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Speaker 1: to some extent plays into that part of Rubio's thinking.

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Speaker 2: Oh one hundred percent agree with that. He has been

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Speaker 2: a very long proponent against the Madeira regime against the

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Speaker 2: regime in Cuba. We know that this has been a

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Speaker 2: lifelong passion project of his, so I guarantee he will

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Speaker 2: We'll do whatever he can to seek regime change in

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Speaker 2: those countries.

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Speaker 1: It just strikes me that this is a either a

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Speaker 1: passing noise or is a moment of extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: Change, And we don't know yet that is correct well

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Speaker 2: to be determined. But again, there are people whor gaining

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Speaker 2: the government, as you mentioned Marco Rubio specifically, who has

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Speaker 2: been a strong proponent of this and who has worked

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Speaker 2: tirelessly to see a regime change. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: that this issue is left for dead by any stretch

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Speaker 2: of the imagination, just because we said we had the oil,

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Speaker 2: because it's not really about oil.

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Speaker 1: As a senior economist, what's your zone of looking at.

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Speaker 2: Things globally, but again with kind of an emphasis on

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Speaker 2: the commodity side and how that in our sex with geopolitics,

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Speaker 2: so supply chains, things of that nature that are important,

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Speaker 2: particularly for the United States.

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Speaker 1: As you look at the last year, is the total

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Speaker 1: effect of what President Trump's trying to do. Does that

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Speaker 1: encourage you or discourage you?

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Speaker 2: I think that it's encouraging to see that we are

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Speaker 2: moving supply chains from China. As you know, that really

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Speaker 2: started during twenty twenty when COVID hit, when we realized

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Speaker 2: that we were importing way too much from China, and

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Speaker 2: so we have been moving supply chains away from China,

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Speaker 2: particularly more in the manufacturing sector instead of the mining sector. However,

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Speaker 2: so what I am pleased about what this administration is

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Speaker 2: trying to do is trying to to bring mining back

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Speaker 2: to North America, and that includes Canada and Mexico, and

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Speaker 2: also has been supporting companies that are supplying critical minerals

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Speaker 2: for US. As you know, the US gave a lot

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Speaker 2: of money to Lithium Americas and MP in order to

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Speaker 2: make our supply chains here and are processing our production

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Speaker 2: our mining industry stronger in North America. We've had the

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Speaker 2: Pentagon also has given away like four hundred and twenty

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Speaker 2: three billion dollars to many companies in the mining sector

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Speaker 2: in both Canada and the United States. And so I

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Speaker 2: am pleased to see that this happens, that our mining

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Speaker 2: industry is supported here. I'm pleased to see that they're

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Speaker 2: working on the permitting processes making that time frame a

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Speaker 2: little bit shorter so that we can move that along

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Speaker 2: without harming the environment or anything like that, of course,

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Speaker 2: So what I am pleased to see is that they

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Speaker 2: are serious about moving the these critical supply chains back

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Speaker 2: to the United States, because again, we've done a lot

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Speaker 2: of moving of manufacturing away from China, but really the

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Speaker 2: mining sector was much forgotten in that whole transition.

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Speaker 1: Didn't we have a long bias against mining?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, I mean, let's be honest, mining is a

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Speaker 2: very dirty industry and nobody wants it in their backyard.

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Speaker 2: Processing is even dirtier, to be honest with you. That said,

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Speaker 2: there have been great strides made in mining is not

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Speaker 2: as dirty as it used to be. I think there

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Speaker 2: is a lot of preconceived notions on what mining is

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Speaker 2: because they remember what it was years and years and

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Speaker 2: years ago when we had it here. It's not the

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Speaker 2: same industry. And I'm not saying all mining is clean,

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Speaker 2: but certainly in the United States we have regulations. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: there is going to have to be kind of a

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Speaker 2: change of mental capacity around the mining industry as a

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Speaker 2: whole so that we can grow it here without having

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Speaker 2: one hundred million lawsuits every time somebody tries to open

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Speaker 2: up a mine here and to realize how critical it

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Speaker 2: is for the United States and what it means to

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Speaker 2: national security in general.

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Speaker 1: What does your gut tell you about twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: As an economic here.

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Speaker 2: We need to keep an eye on inflation because I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure we quite have that beat and what that

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Speaker 2: means for the economy as a whole. Also, I think

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Speaker 2: that obviously we've heard from the Federal Reserve they're worried

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Speaker 2: about the labor markets. We need to keep an eye

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Speaker 2: on the labor market. But the labor market seems fairly

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Speaker 2: okay by any stretch of the imagination. We still have

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Speaker 2: a very low unemployment rate. But I think we really

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Speaker 2: need to watch the inflation because I'm not so sure

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Speaker 2: that inflation is quite beat. Obviously the labor market. Housing

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Speaker 2: market is also obviously a forefront and affordability issues, and

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Speaker 2: so I hope we can see strides in those areas.

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Speaker 1: I think that's fascinating. As the world is evolving right now,

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Speaker 1: you must find it all fascinating, just how many different

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Speaker 1: things are going on.

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Speaker 2: There is a lot going on for sure right now.

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Speaker 1: And you report on it regularly. I want to thank

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Speaker 1: you for joining me, but I want our listeners to

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Speaker 1: know that they can join you on substack at Tracy

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Speaker 1: Schuekart and on x chi grl for Chicago Girl. What

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Speaker 1: you're doing is fascinating. Your articles were extraordinarily helpful, and

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Speaker 1: that's why I was so glad you were willing to

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Speaker 1: come and talk with us in the New World. It's

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Speaker 1: great talking with you, and I hope in the future,

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Speaker 1: as these things evolve, that we'll be able to come

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Speaker 1: back and pick your brain again.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely, the pleasure again is all mine and I look

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Speaker 2: forward to the opportunity to speak with you again.

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Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, trace to shuegart NEWT World

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Speaker 1: is produced by Gingra three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive

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Speaker 1: producer is Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The

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Speaker 1: artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. Special

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Speaker 1: thanks to the team at Gingrich three sixty. If you

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Speaker 1: want to enjoy NEWTS World, I hope you'll go to

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Speaker 1: give us a review so others can learn what it's

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Speaker 1: all about. Join me on substack at ginger sweet sixty

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Speaker 1: dot net. I'm nude Gingrich. This is NEWTS world,