WEBVTT - A Historical Event & A Great Historian.  Niall Ferguson Talks to Armstrong & Getty

0:00:01.560 --> 0:00:03.920
<v Speaker 1>When you're ready to ride Metro, we want you to

0:00:03.960 --> 0:00:06.560
<v Speaker 1>know we're ready for you. Here are just a few

0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:08.399
<v Speaker 1>of the people at Metro to tell you how we're

0:00:08.440 --> 0:00:11.320
<v Speaker 1>doing our part to keep riders safe. We're cleaning like

0:00:11.440 --> 0:00:20.320
<v Speaker 1>nevill before you've found has sanitizing, no mask, no metron one.

0:00:20.480 --> 0:00:23.239
<v Speaker 1>We have a few extras at Metro. We're doing our

0:00:23.280 --> 0:00:25.920
<v Speaker 1>part to keep the DC area moving. Find out more

0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:30.319
<v Speaker 1>at well Matta dot com slash doing our part while

0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:32.800
<v Speaker 1>we're living through and a historical event. So how about

0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:35.000
<v Speaker 1>we talked to one of the world's greatest historians. It's

0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Armstrong and Getty extra large because four hours simply usn't enough.

0:00:40.880 --> 0:00:46.159
<v Speaker 1>This is Armstrong and Getty extra Large. Neil Ferguson is

0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:49.879
<v Speaker 1>the Millbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford

0:00:49.960 --> 0:00:53.239
<v Speaker 1>University for twelve years, the Laurence ay Tisch Professor of

0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:57.480
<v Speaker 1>History at Stanford, among other credentials, and more importantly, is

0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.840
<v Speaker 1>a hell of a good conversation. That's been too long, Neil,

0:00:59.840 --> 0:01:03.200
<v Speaker 1>how are you, sir? Very well? Indeed, I'm happy to report. Yeah, well,

0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:05.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm excited to talk to you because Joe and I

0:01:05.440 --> 0:01:08.560
<v Speaker 1>were throwing us around the other day. Um, you know,

0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:10.640
<v Speaker 1>you're a professional historian, so it's good to ask you

0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:14.520
<v Speaker 1>where word amateur history bubbs buffs? Are we living through

0:01:14.600 --> 0:01:18.320
<v Speaker 1>like a top ten world event? I mean, because by

0:01:18.360 --> 0:01:20.080
<v Speaker 1>a number of measures, it seems to me it would

0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:24.679
<v Speaker 1>rank pretty high in world history, maybe below the meteor

0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.520
<v Speaker 1>that killed the dinosaurs, but certainly above Prince Harry moving

0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:31.120
<v Speaker 1>to Canada. Somewhere in that range. Yes, I certainly think

0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:35.039
<v Speaker 1>it beats Prince Harry, So I'm not sure we're quite

0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.600
<v Speaker 1>at the extinction event level. I think if it were

0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:43.440
<v Speaker 1>just a pandemic, it wouldn't really be top ten because

0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:46.800
<v Speaker 1>it's clearly not up there with the Black Death of

0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.520
<v Speaker 1>the fourteenth century. I don't think it's as a dangerous

0:01:51.560 --> 0:01:55.360
<v Speaker 1>disease actually is the influenza of eighteen nineteen. But what's

0:01:55.440 --> 0:02:01.640
<v Speaker 1>making it world historical is the extraordinary economic consequences, and

0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:06.560
<v Speaker 1>particularly the ways in which government mandated lockdown, the causing

0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.560
<v Speaker 1>that the biggest economic shocks since the Great Depression, much

0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:14.359
<v Speaker 1>bigger than the two two tho nine financial crisis. I

0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:18.600
<v Speaker 1>think that's really the differentiating factor here. We're really in

0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.359
<v Speaker 1>the midst of one of the biggest economic shocks in

0:02:21.800 --> 0:02:26.000
<v Speaker 1>history well, and similar to the still shocking lack of

0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:28.840
<v Speaker 1>knowledge about the specifics of the virus, how it infects,

0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:32.080
<v Speaker 1>how it spreads, how it kills. We don't have the

0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:35.280
<v Speaker 1>slightest idea do we what the aftershocks are likely to

0:02:35.320 --> 0:02:38.480
<v Speaker 1>look like or how long the last Well, that's right,

0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:42.400
<v Speaker 1>because we know more now than we did back in

0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:46.760
<v Speaker 1>January when I started writing about this warning that the

0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:52.320
<v Speaker 1>Woolhan coronavirus was likely to become a global pandemic. But

0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.200
<v Speaker 1>but we we still don't really know the critical things

0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.640
<v Speaker 1>we need to know. We don't really know what the

0:02:57.639 --> 0:03:01.320
<v Speaker 1>infection fatality rate is because the case motality rates are

0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:03.840
<v Speaker 1>very skewed. We don't really know how many people have

0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:07.760
<v Speaker 1>been exposed. For testing is getting up to the level

0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.200
<v Speaker 1>where we can start to get a fix on it.

0:03:10.360 --> 0:03:12.640
<v Speaker 1>We have no idea when a vaccine will be ready.

0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:15.440
<v Speaker 1>It certainly won't be this year and can't even be

0:03:15.480 --> 0:03:18.639
<v Speaker 1>relied on to be ready for next year. So for

0:03:18.800 --> 0:03:21.720
<v Speaker 1>a whole bunch of imponderables here. But history can be

0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:24.080
<v Speaker 1>in some ways of helpful, if not more helpful than

0:03:24.120 --> 0:03:27.160
<v Speaker 1>epithe theology. One thing is very clear from the great

0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:30.960
<v Speaker 1>pandemics of the past. This will not be one wave

0:03:31.040 --> 0:03:33.560
<v Speaker 1>and done. And I think we've been letters of public

0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.280
<v Speaker 1>to believe. But as alably flattened the curve and the

0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:39.839
<v Speaker 1>great phrase of the year, we'll be fine and we'll

0:03:39.840 --> 0:03:42.880
<v Speaker 1>be looking back on this by July fourth saying gee,

0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:46.880
<v Speaker 1>that was rough but over. That's not the case. Almost

0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:51.760
<v Speaker 1>all the great pandemics are multiple waves. The second wave

0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:54.640
<v Speaker 1>was bigger than the first one, and I think it's

0:03:54.720 --> 0:03:58.000
<v Speaker 1>it's only a matter of time. It could be soon

0:03:58.360 --> 0:04:01.240
<v Speaker 1>trying to get the economy back to work. It could

0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.160
<v Speaker 1>be after the summer, but there will be a second wave,

0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.320
<v Speaker 1>and I think it's time that people face that realistically,

0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:10.080
<v Speaker 1>rather than kidding themselves that it will all be over

0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:13.160
<v Speaker 1>by July four. Your opinion piece in the Boston Globe,

0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:17.960
<v Speaker 1>the economic legacy of a coronavirus lockdown, the old battle

0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:23.600
<v Speaker 1>between security, um uh, you know, security and safety and

0:04:23.680 --> 0:04:26.000
<v Speaker 1>your economic security and your health and all that sort

0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:28.479
<v Speaker 1>of stuff. The way it's playing out here, it seems

0:04:28.520 --> 0:04:31.080
<v Speaker 1>like it transferment to flatten the curve. As you said,

0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:33.040
<v Speaker 1>it's the phrase of the year, flatten the curve. But

0:04:33.080 --> 0:04:34.840
<v Speaker 1>originally we're going to flatten the curve to try to

0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:37.039
<v Speaker 1>keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. Now all of a sudden,

0:04:37.080 --> 0:04:39.320
<v Speaker 1>we've gone to it seems, flatten the curve to make

0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:41.720
<v Speaker 1>sure nobody dies from it. And I don't know if

0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm willing to trade how many tens of thousands deads

0:04:44.720 --> 0:04:47.400
<v Speaker 1>for something worse than the Great Depression. I think that

0:04:47.520 --> 0:04:52.320
<v Speaker 1>this trade off has has sometimes been over sympathized in

0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the way that some politicians are said, we should be

0:04:57.040 --> 0:04:59.600
<v Speaker 1>ready to satisfice the elderly to get the economy back.

0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:01.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we should think about it like that.

0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.880
<v Speaker 1>I think that the truth is that we just have

0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of uncertainty about the disease, and therefore we

0:05:08.000 --> 0:05:10.640
<v Speaker 1>need to err on the side of caution. We certainly

0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:12.760
<v Speaker 1>needed to err on the side of caution right at

0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.359
<v Speaker 1>the beginning when we knew nothing about it. Unfortunately we

0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:18.800
<v Speaker 1>did it. But I think the projections that were so

0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:23.280
<v Speaker 1>crucial in March in leading to lockdowns implied that up

0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:26.400
<v Speaker 1>to two million or more Americans would die if we

0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:29.359
<v Speaker 1>did nothing, and I think that was all was certainly

0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:32.760
<v Speaker 1>wrong because it implied or it was based on an

0:05:32.760 --> 0:05:36.920
<v Speaker 1>assumption that the infection fatality rate was about point nine percent,

0:05:37.400 --> 0:05:42.520
<v Speaker 1>in effect, to the epidemeologists, who confusedly included somebody with

0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:45.839
<v Speaker 1>the same name as me, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London,

0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:49.920
<v Speaker 1>were saying, this is as bad as nine and I'm

0:05:49.920 --> 0:05:52.240
<v Speaker 1>pretty sure it's not. I think we now know enough

0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:55.400
<v Speaker 1>to see that it is not as deadly. It's more

0:05:55.480 --> 0:05:58.640
<v Speaker 1>like actually the ninety seven fifty eight pandemic, which not

0:05:58.680 --> 0:06:01.480
<v Speaker 1>many people remember. And the reason they don't remember it

0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:03.880
<v Speaker 1>is that killed quite a lot of people around the world,

0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:08.200
<v Speaker 1>including many Americans. It didn't lead to they can lockdown.

0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:11.440
<v Speaker 1>It didn't need to this kind of man made depression.

0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:14.599
<v Speaker 1>So I think, although I'm going to be careful here,

0:06:14.839 --> 0:06:19.000
<v Speaker 1>I think we're starting to see that we actually went

0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.280
<v Speaker 1>in for overkill in the face of a disease that

0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.960
<v Speaker 1>was highly contagious, certainly, but not as injurious as we

0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:29.320
<v Speaker 1>at first thought. And that's why I think it would

0:06:29.320 --> 0:06:34.080
<v Speaker 1>be very, very urgently desirable for the US to switch

0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:38.000
<v Speaker 1>to a more subtle form of containment of the disease,

0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.800
<v Speaker 1>of the sort that we've already seen in countries like

0:06:40.960 --> 0:06:44.480
<v Speaker 1>Taiwan and South Korea, which haven't had to lockdown their economies.

0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.520
<v Speaker 1>We used a very blunt instrument based I think on

0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:51.440
<v Speaker 1>an exaggerated fear of the excess mortipality that was going

0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:54.359
<v Speaker 1>to be It can like lockdown. I don't think have

0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:59.040
<v Speaker 1>been especially affected compared with social distancing, which is something different.

0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.080
<v Speaker 1>And I think the lesson that we can learn from

0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:05.680
<v Speaker 1>successful countries like Taiwan and South Korea is that with

0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:10.040
<v Speaker 1>testing and contact tracing, you don't need to create your

0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:15.040
<v Speaker 1>economy to manage this disease. Well, and we're discussing the

0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.440
<v Speaker 1>trade off between the lives of the old in your

0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.920
<v Speaker 1>example and versus the economy. I think it's brutally under

0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:24.600
<v Speaker 1>discussed the fact that if the economy tanks or is

0:07:24.840 --> 0:07:30.200
<v Speaker 1>left in rubble, there will be many, many deaths of poverty, despair,

0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:34.520
<v Speaker 1>lack of medical care, suicide, depression, addiction, etcetera, etcetera. And

0:07:34.560 --> 0:07:37.640
<v Speaker 1>I could easily see a two hundred thousand deaths of

0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:42.640
<v Speaker 1>despair being sacrificed to save thirty thousand lives of Wuhan flu,

0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:45.920
<v Speaker 1>which is obviously not to sort of bargain anyone would strike.

0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:50.720
<v Speaker 1>I think the risk in terms of potential mortality due

0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:54.320
<v Speaker 1>to code of mountin was was higher than a thousand

0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:57.360
<v Speaker 1>if we if we'd really done nothing, I think, yeah,

0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.240
<v Speaker 1>I meant going forward really bit higher. But you know,

0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:04.880
<v Speaker 1>we're in a situation now when it's quite hard to

0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.560
<v Speaker 1>say what the result would have been if we if

0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:10.160
<v Speaker 1>we've done nothing. But the distinction I want to draw

0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:15.080
<v Speaker 1>is between a rational policy of social distancing that tries

0:08:15.160 --> 0:08:20.640
<v Speaker 1>to minimize the exposure, especially vulnerable groups to this virus

0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.120
<v Speaker 1>under very blunt instrument of economic lockdowns, which I think

0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:28.120
<v Speaker 1>have almost certainly done more harm than the net public

0:08:28.160 --> 0:08:30.760
<v Speaker 1>health benefit. I mean, in the end, we're using a

0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:33.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of quite confusing metrics, and the result I think

0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:37.040
<v Speaker 1>has been to lead ordinary Americans to to feel very

0:08:37.120 --> 0:08:40.600
<v Speaker 1>uncertain about what they should do. I think the best

0:08:40.600 --> 0:08:43.800
<v Speaker 1>way of thinking about this is just excess debts. Are

0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:48.520
<v Speaker 1>we seeing right now much higher mortality than we would

0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:53.120
<v Speaker 1>expect at this time of year? And that's I think

0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.600
<v Speaker 1>a good way of thinking about it. And the answer

0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:58.959
<v Speaker 1>is that we're starting to although at the moment it's

0:08:58.960 --> 0:09:02.439
<v Speaker 1>still very confined into states such as New York. In Europe,

0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:06.680
<v Speaker 1>there's excess mortality certainly in countries like Italy and Spain,

0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:09.439
<v Speaker 1>and it's clear that it would have been much higher

0:09:09.679 --> 0:09:12.360
<v Speaker 1>if if they done nothing, and if we've done nothing,

0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:15.040
<v Speaker 1>So I don't think we should underplay this. It was

0:09:15.120 --> 0:09:17.880
<v Speaker 1>always a mistake to say, oh, this is just the

0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:22.640
<v Speaker 1>seasonal influenza. That was a terrible uh, that bad bit

0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of analysis that that attracted a lot of comment pators

0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:29.080
<v Speaker 1>on both the left and the right back in January, February,

0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:31.560
<v Speaker 1>in the first half of March. So I don't think

0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:35.000
<v Speaker 1>we should underestimate this, but nor should we While be exaggerated,

0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:40.199
<v Speaker 1>this is really not as dangerous of virus as the influenza.

0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:45.559
<v Speaker 1>If if you actually imagine that virus coming back today,

0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:49.880
<v Speaker 1>then we'd be looking at death death count potentially up

0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.400
<v Speaker 1>to two million. But I really don't think that was

0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:54.760
<v Speaker 1>the mere scenario we faced. I think it was much

0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:58.480
<v Speaker 1>closer to being something like ninety seven fifty eight, with

0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:03.640
<v Speaker 1>maybe maybe five a thousand people potentially at risk. So

0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.800
<v Speaker 1>it's a very fine balance that governments have to strike.

0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.040
<v Speaker 1>I think the mistake that we may have made was

0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:14.400
<v Speaker 1>to say, our first we'll try in cicions, why why

0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.000
<v Speaker 1>shouldn't we worry, And then let's try what the Chinese

0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.000
<v Speaker 1>did in Coupe problems, which was economic lockdown, and we

0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:22.960
<v Speaker 1>failed to see that actually there was a much smarter

0:10:23.080 --> 0:10:27.280
<v Speaker 1>policy being done in the other China, iwan we're testing

0:10:27.320 --> 0:10:31.959
<v Speaker 1>and policing enabled them to avoid the contagions spreading far

0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.720
<v Speaker 1>the god very few deaths, and they haven't had to

0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:38.520
<v Speaker 1>lock down their economy. I think, guys has to be

0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:41.880
<v Speaker 1>why did all those people in the federal government whose

0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:45.920
<v Speaker 1>job this was failed so badly. It's not like we

0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.400
<v Speaker 1>didn't have a plan for a pandemic. We had I

0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:53.400
<v Speaker 1>think at the last count, six different plans. We had legislation,

0:10:53.640 --> 0:10:56.760
<v Speaker 1>we had task forces, we had people inside the Department

0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:00.200
<v Speaker 1>of Helping Human Services whose one job it was to

0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:04.440
<v Speaker 1>deal with the pandemic, and for some unexplicable reason almost

0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:08.560
<v Speaker 1>brought completely failed. That's the conversation I think we need

0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.240
<v Speaker 1>to have when this finally is over, which I don't

0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:13.559
<v Speaker 1>think we'll be until next year. We need to ask

0:11:13.840 --> 0:11:18.640
<v Speaker 1>why big government failed so ethically in the United States

0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.520
<v Speaker 1>this year. Yeah, I hope that's looked at um UH

0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:24.080
<v Speaker 1>and by people being nonpartisan, just trying to get to

0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:26.400
<v Speaker 1>the bottom of it. I've read about the first half

0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.920
<v Speaker 1>of your Henry Kissinger book just absolutely fantastic. And the

0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:31.600
<v Speaker 1>reason I bring that up as I was reading an

0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.560
<v Speaker 1>opinion piece from Henry Kissinger just the other day, in

0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.240
<v Speaker 1>which he thinks this is really going to have an

0:11:37.240 --> 0:11:42.160
<v Speaker 1>effect on the world order, particularly um the power struggle

0:11:42.200 --> 0:11:44.080
<v Speaker 1>between US and China. How do you feel about that?

0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:47.800
<v Speaker 1>How gool with that? I mean, Richard half of the

0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:51.960
<v Speaker 1>Council on Foreign Relations wrote a kind of alternative piece saying, Oh,

0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:54.959
<v Speaker 1>it's not going to change that much except to accelerate

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.160
<v Speaker 1>existing trend. I think I think that that's definitely wrong.

0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:02.160
<v Speaker 1>This is a huge shift that is going to happen.

0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I think in some ways it is laying bare what

0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:10.680
<v Speaker 1>I've already called Cold War two, revealing that there are fundamental,

0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:15.600
<v Speaker 1>irreconcilable differences between the United States and China. Perhaps I

0:12:15.600 --> 0:12:18.480
<v Speaker 1>should say the Western China, because Europe's in this too.

0:12:18.800 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 1>I think prior to the pandemic, a lot of people

0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.280
<v Speaker 1>wanted to pretend this wasn't happening and that somehow we

0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:28.079
<v Speaker 1>could resurrect the old relationship between the US and China

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.560
<v Speaker 1>that I used to call chi America. But ch America

0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:32.960
<v Speaker 1>is dead and Cold War two is very much with us,

0:12:33.360 --> 0:12:37.079
<v Speaker 1>and I think the pandemic has has revealed that very clearly. Chinese,

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:40.680
<v Speaker 1>of course, they're trying to bend the narrative and say oh, well,

0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:44.040
<v Speaker 1>this may possibly have started in China, but actually it

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 1>might have started somewhere else. But hey, anyway, we're here

0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 1>to save the world, and that that I think is

0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:53.320
<v Speaker 1>a pretty ill conceived propagandam move from China's part that's

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 1>probably going to backfire on them. It's certainly not playing

0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 1>well in Europe as I understand it. So no, I

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:02.120
<v Speaker 1>think this is a big moments of truth for the U. S.

0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:05.640
<v Speaker 1>China relationship. But it's a moment that has revealed all

0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.360
<v Speaker 1>that is rotten at the core of the People's Republic

0:13:08.360 --> 0:13:12.400
<v Speaker 1>of China's governance. But there's other stuff to be looked

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.040
<v Speaker 1>at too. I don't think it could be without consequences

0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that the price of oil has essentially collapsed to zero

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:23.280
<v Speaker 1>or even in some cases into negative territory. For countries

0:13:23.320 --> 0:13:26.520
<v Speaker 1>like Russia or for that matter, Saudi Arabia that rely

0:13:26.840 --> 0:13:30.800
<v Speaker 1>primarily on these revenues from oil, it's it's got to

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:35.199
<v Speaker 1>be an existential threat that they face. So I think

0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:38.559
<v Speaker 1>the political consequences, or maybe I should say the geopolitical

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:42.120
<v Speaker 1>consequences of the pandemic, will be enormous, much closer to

0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 1>kissing to the Richard hearts, and that changing direction just

0:13:45.920 --> 0:13:48.559
<v Speaker 1>a bit. Those of us of a libertarian banter are

0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>concerned about a couple of aspects of this power. Once

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:59.080
<v Speaker 1>grasp is not easily taken back, and right surrendered are

0:13:59.120 --> 0:14:03.439
<v Speaker 1>not easily regained, And there seems to be an awful

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:08.079
<v Speaker 1>lot of uh, you know, too too easy acquiescence to

0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:11.120
<v Speaker 1>We're putting you essentially under house arrest, and we're not

0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:14.360
<v Speaker 1>even going to indicate that we understand how serious that is.

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>You have no right to peaceably assemble, but it's because

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 1>there's an emergency, and again it could be necessary. But

0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 1>the fact that the powers that be don't even say, look,

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:29.360
<v Speaker 1>we understand, we're asking you to surrender your most precious rights.

0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Were very sorry, We'll get back to normal as soon

0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.600
<v Speaker 1>as we can. The casualness of it is bothersome to us.

0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 1>Any thoughts on that, Yeah, I think the United States

0:14:39.960 --> 0:14:42.600
<v Speaker 1>has a bit of a public actually with the way

0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 1>in which emergencies operates. They have a tendency to get

0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 1>declared and never undeclared because the National Emergencies Act, which

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:59.640
<v Speaker 1>dates back to the nineteen seventies, has essentially being abused

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.000
<v Speaker 1>by sess of administrations. Again, this is not a partisan point.

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Emergencies get declared and then they kind of stay in force,

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 1>and I think it would be very very dangerous indeed,

0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:14.120
<v Speaker 1>if certainly the emergency measures that have been introduced since

0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:17.520
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic came along became a permanent feature. I think

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:23.120
<v Speaker 1>it's urgently needed that the National Emergencies Act be reformed

0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 1>so that there is an expiry mandatory expiry of sticks

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>of emergency, because otherwise we end up in a situation

0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 1>which I think is very troubling that a whole range

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:39.040
<v Speaker 1>of different statutory provisions supposed to be for emergencies only

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>become permanent features of of American life. And I don't

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.440
<v Speaker 1>think any president should be in a position to play

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 1>a permanent state of emergency. Frankly, that's how the publics die.

0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Don't really matter who the president is. My final question

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:56.200
<v Speaker 1>is how long do you think there will be reverberations

0:15:56.600 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 1>economically worldwide out of this? But I don't think the

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 1>public health crisis is going to be over for quite

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.920
<v Speaker 1>a while because the virus is not going away. We

0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:11.280
<v Speaker 1>don't have therapy is we don't have a vaccine, were

0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:14.760
<v Speaker 1>nowhere near to her immunity. A great proportion the population

0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.440
<v Speaker 1>hasn't even been exposed to it yet, We're still going

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:19.800
<v Speaker 1>to be playing some game of whack a mole with

0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:25.560
<v Speaker 1>covered nineteen inter next year and beyond become a regular

0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:27.920
<v Speaker 1>teacher of life. In fact, if it turns out that

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 1>you don't get more lasting immunity once you've had it,

0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:33.800
<v Speaker 1>which I think is quite possible. So that's the that's

0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 1>the public health problem. It's certainly not going away in

0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:40.600
<v Speaker 1>a hurry. But the consequences of what we've done really

0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:45.080
<v Speaker 1>traveled me more because we have inflicted an enormous shock

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:48.520
<v Speaker 1>to our economy. That's there in the data that you

0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:53.240
<v Speaker 1>and I can see every day. Soaring unemployment, business is

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:56.120
<v Speaker 1>teetering on the brink of insolvency, relying on checks from

0:16:56.120 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the federal government to steer This can't continue for much longer.

0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:03.520
<v Speaker 1>With really sustained UH, you can come a damage that

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:06.120
<v Speaker 1>will not be easy to recover from. I certainly don't

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:10.280
<v Speaker 1>see a v shaped recovery under these circumstances. Imagining that

0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:12.639
<v Speaker 1>this is financial prices two points oh, and that you

0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.680
<v Speaker 1>just need to throw money at it in the form

0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:18.520
<v Speaker 1>of a large federal deficit and lots of wanted di

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:22.200
<v Speaker 1>easing is delusional. All those measures are doing is propping

0:17:22.280 --> 0:17:25.800
<v Speaker 1>up the economy that would otherwise be flat on its face.

0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:28.560
<v Speaker 1>But I think it's going to be a long road back,

0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:35.000
<v Speaker 1>even if we successfully begin to unwinder lockdowns in the

0:17:35.040 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 1>next couple of months. So I'm afraid we aren't going

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:42.240
<v Speaker 1>to be out of this for a long time. Remember

0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>how long it took actually for the U. S economy

0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:46.359
<v Speaker 1>to get back to where it was in arnds of

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:51.200
<v Speaker 1>just an employment after two thousands, more like six years

0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>before we were really back to where we had been.

0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.600
<v Speaker 1>This is worse, and so I think we need to

0:17:56.640 --> 0:18:01.000
<v Speaker 1>prepare our for a slow crawl back to something that

0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.520
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we can call the new normal, because

0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:05.720
<v Speaker 1>I don't think it's going to be that normal. It's

0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:07.560
<v Speaker 1>not going to be that normal if we can't go

0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:10.280
<v Speaker 1>to the all game, if we can't go to crowded restaurants,

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.520
<v Speaker 1>if we can't go to the movies, if all of

0:18:12.560 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 1>those things that involve social proximity are essentially off for

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.399
<v Speaker 1>the indefinite future until there's a generally available vaccine, and

0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 1>talking about normal is probably just another form of self delusion. Well,

0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and the universe has a funny way of throwing things

0:18:29.040 --> 0:18:31.560
<v Speaker 1>at you as you're recovering from the last shock. To

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.840
<v Speaker 1>Neil Ferguson of the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, we don't

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 1>want to be too greedy with your time, but we

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much for the conversation. Always enjoy it

0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:46.560
<v Speaker 1>in a pleasure sor I'm not more cheerful. Thanks nonetheless. Yeah, well,

0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:48.239
<v Speaker 1>I understand why he said there at the end. I

0:18:48.280 --> 0:18:50.000
<v Speaker 1>was thinking while he while he was laying that out,

0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 1>I thought, I hope he's wrong. I hope he's wrong

0:18:52.640 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 1>about that. It is not ten years before we get

0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.679
<v Speaker 1>back to even where we were before. Well, you know,

0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:02.320
<v Speaker 1>my might comment about the universe throwing things. Actually it

0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:06.160
<v Speaker 1>works both ways too. Sometimes the universe throws enormous opportunities

0:19:06.240 --> 0:19:09.320
<v Speaker 1>your way and and things turn out much better than anticipating.

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, tearing down and chaos is the natural state

0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 1>of things. That's what you're always fighting against just in life, entropy,

0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:21.720
<v Speaker 1>right and uh and so well, you know, like you said,

0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:23.800
<v Speaker 1>there will be other things come along over the next

0:19:23.920 --> 0:19:26.320
<v Speaker 1>six eight ten years as the world tries to get

0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:29.400
<v Speaker 1>back to where it was three months ago. Um, there

0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 1>will be wars and earthquakes and hurricanes and political unrest

0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:37.359
<v Speaker 1>and who knows what. So, you know, the optimist in

0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>me thinks that a lot of crap that is addling

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.080
<v Speaker 1>our society, that's hurting us is going to be shaken

0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.199
<v Speaker 1>out because we don't have time for it anymore. We're

0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:51.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna be a leaner, meaner, more practical people. Then there's

0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>the other part of me that thinks, no, it appears

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:57.720
<v Speaker 1>to me bureaucracies are growing. Uh, the the power of

0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the government and the bureaucracies is growing in things might

0:20:00.680 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 1>just end up worse. I don't know. We've got We've

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:05.639
<v Speaker 1>got a whole generation that's has spent a good chunk

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:07.880
<v Speaker 1>of their life being taken care of by the government

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:09.919
<v Speaker 1>because there was no other way to do it. And

0:20:09.960 --> 0:20:13.879
<v Speaker 1>now they that's on the entries. Yeah, oh well, what

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:21.879
<v Speaker 1>are you gonna do? Extra large? When you're ready to

0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:24.720
<v Speaker 1>ride Metro, we want you to know we're ready for you.

0:20:25.040 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Here are just a few of the people at Metro

0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:29.080
<v Speaker 1>to tell you how we're doing our part to keep

0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:33.160
<v Speaker 1>riders safe. We're cleaning like never before. Half build it greatly.

0:20:33.720 --> 0:20:39.800
<v Speaker 1>You've found half sanitizing, no mask, no Metro need one.

0:20:39.960 --> 0:20:42.720
<v Speaker 1>We have a few extras at Metro We're doing our

0:20:42.760 --> 0:20:45.400
<v Speaker 1>part to keep the DC area moving. Find out more

0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:47.680
<v Speaker 1>at well mata dot com slash doing our part