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Speaker 1: He's the Drive with Dale Lolly and Matt Williamson show

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Speaker 1: on your twenty four to seven home of the Black

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Speaker 1: and Gold Steelers Nation Radio.

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Speaker 2: Welcome back. I'm Dale LOLLI. He is Matt Walliamson, and

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Speaker 2: this is the Drive on Steelers Nation Radio. And Matt,

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Speaker 2: now that we have the schedule, our friend Cynthia Freeland,

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Speaker 2: who of course is a friend of the show and

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Speaker 2: has been on the show, does she projects her wind

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Speaker 2: totals now for the AFC, the NFC, all that stuff.

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Speaker 2: And I thought we'd take a look at that here.

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Speaker 2: We'll do the AFC first, since well that's where the

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Speaker 2: Steelers play, and this is Steelers Nation Radio. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if I necessarily agree with her assessment here, but

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Speaker 2: we'll see.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this is a mathematical equation. This isn't her

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Speaker 1: saying I think this seems good. This seems bad. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, to her credit, if she plugs it in

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Speaker 1: the indoor model and it comes out and these are

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Speaker 1: our results.

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Speaker 2: These things always get me because everything's close to the mean.

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Speaker 1: I know, no one's fourteen wins or three wins.

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Speaker 2: Right, there's never there's never, it's everything's usually between six

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Speaker 2: and eleven.

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Speaker 1: Or twelve, Like if you move from seven point eight

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Speaker 1: wins to eight point four. Wow, that's a huge jump

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Speaker 1: where it isn't in the real half a game. But

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Speaker 1: that's all math works.

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Speaker 2: Right, because yeah, it takes everything into account. She runs

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Speaker 2: millions of these things before she comes out with her numbers.

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Speaker 2: So she's predicting the Kansas City Chiefs at eleven point

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Speaker 2: six wins to be the number one seed in the AFC. Well,

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Speaker 2: eleven point six. I think if you told Andy Reid

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Speaker 2: right now, hey, Andy, you're gonna win eleven games this year, right,

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Speaker 2: number two or eleven and six? Would you be happy

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Speaker 2: with eleven and six? Andy's gonna say.

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Speaker 1: No, Nah, I'll take you my chances, right Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And I don't win total like I think the the

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Speaker 2: AFC this year's wins thirteen games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's usually the case. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: the Eagles could go fifteen to two, right, you know

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Speaker 1: what I mean.

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Speaker 2: She has the Bengals at eleven wins. Yeah, if they

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Speaker 2: win eleven, So Kansas City's over unders is eleven point

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Speaker 2: five wins. That's her win total, so they barely get

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Speaker 2: over that according to her projections. Okay, the Bengals are

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Speaker 2: at eleven wins. They're over runners eleven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Real quick, while you were talking there, I pulled up

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Speaker 1: Warrens just strength of schedule. Only two teams, the Patriots

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Speaker 1: and Bills have a tougher schedule than the Chiefs. I

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Speaker 1: knew they were near the toughest, but they have a

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Speaker 1: brutal slate. Not that Andy would still say eleven and

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Speaker 1: six is cool with.

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Speaker 2: Me, right, So eleven wins for the Bengals. The Bills

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Speaker 2: win total is ten point five. She has them coming

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Speaker 2: in at ten point six wins.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, being really rough schedule.

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Speaker 2: Is the AFC East Champions?

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Speaker 1: Okay, the SCO they have another one. They're one of

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Speaker 1: those teams that have to host a game, go to

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Speaker 1: London or yeah, host a game, go to London, host

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Speaker 1: a game. You know, that's brutal, brutal.

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Speaker 2: The Ravens she has at nine point nine wins as

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Speaker 2: the top wild card in the AFC. Their win total

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Speaker 2: is nine point five. That's a big number. That's about

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Speaker 2: I don't I don't see them getting there.

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Speaker 1: I don't either. I want to see where Warren has

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Speaker 1: those guys twenty second easiest, So like the tenth hardest

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Speaker 1: schedule where the rest of the divisions right in the middle.

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Speaker 1: Steelers are a little above the line, I think.

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Speaker 2: And even she makes mention of weeks four for eight.

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Speaker 2: Four through eight will be particular interesting for the Ravens,

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Speaker 2: who traveled to Cleveland and Pittsburgh then London to play

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Speaker 2: the Titans in consecutive weeks before games against Detroit at

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Speaker 2: home in Arizona. A way, that's four out of five

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Speaker 2: games on the road, with one taking place in Europe.

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Speaker 1: So we're all guilty of this, you know. Oh they

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Speaker 1: got to Texans, Oh win that game. Oh they got

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Speaker 1: the Titans win that game. But that's the last way

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Speaker 1: they want to play the Titans, healers in a different continent.

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Speaker 2: As she says here, Detroit's odds in week seven improved

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Speaker 2: point three to one percentage points based on this stretch

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Speaker 2: for Baltimore. And that's what the Ravens playing at home?

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Speaker 1: Wow, okay, interesting.

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Speaker 2: Based on the schedule. How it breaks down that you're

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Speaker 2: on the road three straight games.

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Speaker 1: Basically, yeah, that's hard, really hard tough.

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Speaker 2: She has the Jets at nine point eight wins. Their

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Speaker 2: win total is nine point five, so.

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Speaker 1: I just I'm looking at it too, and I think

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Speaker 1: is interesting what she says here is they have the

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Speaker 1: hardest four game stretch to start the season. Bills at Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: I mean at least three of them are home. But

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Speaker 1: that's no fun.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not picking them against the Bills, right,

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Speaker 2: I'm not.

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Speaker 1: New quarterback, a new coordinator.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not picking them at Dallas. I may pick

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Speaker 2: them in Week three against the Patriots at home, but

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Speaker 2: I'm not picking them in Week four against the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: I want to go back just for a second, because

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Speaker 1: I knew there was something that was on my mind

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Speaker 1: about the Bills from Week eleven on for the Bills.

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Speaker 1: The Bills get the Jets at home at Eagles, Bye, okay,

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Speaker 1: nice at Kansas City, Dallas at home at Chargers, New

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Speaker 1: England at home at Miami like that second half?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, are we sure the Bills are going to be

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Speaker 2: a playoff team?

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Speaker 1: That's what I'm leaning. Like. One of my favorite bets,

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Speaker 1: of course, is Steeler over underwins over. I might just

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Speaker 1: go under on the Bills. I'm sure Vegas has them

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Speaker 1: high because they're a good football team.

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Speaker 2: They're at ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a rough slate, man, that's a.

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Speaker 2: Really rough slate. And again, your one quarterback injury away

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Speaker 2: from that being a switch a stretch where you don't

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Speaker 2: win any and then.

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Speaker 1: You win your bed if Allen misses any time.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the Jets over the Dolphins who come in

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Speaker 2: at nine point six wins, they're over under his nine

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Speaker 2: point five.

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Speaker 1: I get it. But I mean, as is the case

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Speaker 1: with the Steelers, it's hard to win five or six

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Speaker 1: division games when you're in the AFC East.

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Speaker 2: Right, I mean, if you go three and three in

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Speaker 2: the East, I just three and three. That means you

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Speaker 2: can't You've got to get to nine point six or

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Speaker 2: let's call it ten. You can only lose four.

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Speaker 1: Other games, right. So side note, If I'm the Patriots

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Speaker 1: and a genie came down and said, you'll go three

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Speaker 1: and three in the East, I'll say I'll take it.

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Speaker 1: And for much of Belichick's career, they're six and o

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Speaker 1: six and.

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Speaker 2: O five one.

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Speaker 1: Would you do the same if you're the Steelers or three?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, three and three in a division? I'd take three

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Speaker 2: and three in a division.

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Speaker 1: I think I would too. I mean that Monday night

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Speaker 1: or here is sure favorable. But the other five or

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Speaker 1: point flips at best.

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Speaker 2: The Jaguars come in at nine point three wins. Their

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Speaker 2: win totals over under is ten.

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Speaker 1: Part of me screams that they're the Plexiglass principle. I

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Speaker 1: love their quarterback and coach, but do we think they're

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Speaker 1: a good team.

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Speaker 2: There except for a regression? Yeah, they're going to get

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Speaker 2: that first place schedule.

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Speaker 1: You know, that's like one year in the last two decades.

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Speaker 2: And they've never handled it.

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Speaker 1: That's the other That's what I mean, right Like when

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Speaker 1: I say the plexiglass principal, history shows when you take

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Speaker 1: a giant step four in this league, almost always you

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Speaker 1: take a small step back.

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Speaker 2: The problem is is I don't think any of the

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Speaker 2: other teams in that division are capable of supplanting them. Now.

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Speaker 2: They may be an eight win team this year and

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Speaker 2: win that division, I don't know. I don't see them

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Speaker 2: getting to ten.

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Speaker 1: No, they're the ninth easiest schedule because of the sixth division.

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Speaker 2: Because the teams they play in their division. Yeah, the

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Speaker 2: Browns come in at nine point three wins. They're over

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Speaker 2: runners eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So she mentions weeks twelve through sixteen at Denver

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Speaker 1: at Rams, Jags at home, Bears at home at Texans.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they could get on a heater there.

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Speaker 2: I don't see them winning at Denver.

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Speaker 1: Probably not.

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Speaker 2: Ben a tough forecast and they're not bad. Should beat

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Speaker 2: the Rams. Jaguars at home is a toss up. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: Bears at home might be a toss up. The Bears

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Speaker 2: are going to be a tough team to play against.

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Speaker 2: They may not win a bunch of games, yeah, but

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Speaker 2: there they're gonna be a bear, no no pun intended

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Speaker 2: to play against because Joseph Fields, I mean he could

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Speaker 2: single handedly beat you at Texans. Okay, so if they

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Speaker 2: I mean, just to get a.

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Speaker 1: File of play is hard to play against, and it's

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Speaker 1: not something you see every day. Yeah yeah, yeah, So I.

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Speaker 2: Mean they could be in it. They could be. It's Cleveland,

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Speaker 2: you just don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's all Watson more so than any team to me,

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Speaker 1: without a doubt.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Then she has the Steelers at nine wins. They're

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Speaker 2: over unders eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so according to her understandate.

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Speaker 2: According to her projections, your wild cards in the AFC

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Speaker 2: or the Ravens with nine point nine wins, The Dolphins,

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Speaker 2: I'm sorry, the Jets with nine point eight wins, and

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Speaker 2: the Dolphins with nine point six. Jacksonville's the AFC South champion.

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Speaker 2: Cleveland and Pittsburgh we both just missed the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: So one thing we talked about quickly off the air

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Speaker 1: is since the schedule came out, the stealer over eight

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Speaker 1: point five wins in the casinos in Vegas has been

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Speaker 1: getting hit hard. People are catching on that We've been

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Speaker 1: telling them for weeks. People are catching on. So even

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Speaker 1: if that goes to nine, I think you and I

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Speaker 1: would still take the over that ten is more likely

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Speaker 1: than eight.

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Speaker 2: You agreed. Yeah, Well, here's the thing about her projection.

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Speaker 2: So if you read this, it says, according to my model,

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Speaker 2: the Steelers most likely record by their week six bias

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Speaker 2: two and three.

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Speaker 1: That's the one I kind of didn't agree with.

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Speaker 2: I don't agree with that at all.

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Speaker 1: No, I think there's a much better chance or of

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Speaker 1: a winning record than a losing And then she said

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Speaker 1: they still more likely than one in four.

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Speaker 2: Right, they still end up with at least nine wins

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Speaker 2: by week seventeen and fifty six percent of her simulations.

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Speaker 2: Remember we're still months away, so if they're going in

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Speaker 2: most of her projections, you're going two and three but

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Speaker 2: they still end up with nine wins in fifty six

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Speaker 2: percent of her simulations. If they go three and two

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Speaker 2: or four and one to start. Now you're looking at

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Speaker 2: ten or eleven wins exactly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, she hasn't winning like seven out of the last

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Speaker 1: eleven along those lines. What you would what would break

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Speaker 1: your heart is if you and I are right and

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Speaker 1: this is a double digit win team and you still

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Speaker 1: miss the playoffs and an eight and nine team in

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Speaker 1: the NFC goes.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that was you know, like that, you know, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, I don't know that. I think if you

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Speaker 2: win ten, you're probably you're probably in the thing about

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Speaker 2: you're gonna yeah, you're gonna be a wild card. The

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Speaker 2: thing is this year, I mean to me, I think

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Speaker 2: you got to look at that the uh, the conference schedule,

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Speaker 2: because the thing about it is, you're not playing the Dolphins,

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Speaker 2: you're not playing the Jets, you're not playing the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: You're not all these teams that would be in the

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Speaker 2: mix for that with you. You're not gonna have a

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Speaker 2: head to head tiebreaker. So then you've gotta start looking

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Speaker 2: at the conference record.

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Speaker 1: Like that Raiders game is huge.

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Speaker 2: Then that Raiders game is huge. The game against the

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Speaker 2: Texans is huge, game against Jacksonville, the game against the Tea.

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Speaker 2: So you're playing the South, Yeah, you got to you

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Speaker 2: gotta beat the Patriots, you got to beat the Colts.

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Speaker 2: You win those games in their own winnable games, you're

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Speaker 2: gonna be sitting pretty.

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Speaker 1: So that's a great point. So they have eight non

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Speaker 1: or fix non division AFC games and they get the.

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Speaker 2: South, right, you can make them. Hey, you could do.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you sweep the South, which is certainly possible.

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Speaker 2: Or if you go three and one against the South.

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Speaker 2: Let's say you lose to a Jacksonville Yeah yeah, and

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Speaker 2: you still and you still manage to go three and

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Speaker 2: three in your division.

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Speaker 1: Well where I was going is right, right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: those six AFC games that aren't against the North are

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Speaker 1: the easiest division in the conference. The Patriots here on

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Speaker 1: a short, short, short week and at Vegas, who's a

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Speaker 1: bad team too, like six and oh isn't crazy? And

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Speaker 1: that's gonna tons of tige breakers for you.

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Speaker 2: That's gonna win all kinds of again, because you don't

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Speaker 2: have any head to heads. Last year they lost because

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Speaker 2: of the head to heads. Like when we're getting down

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Speaker 2: to the to the nitty gritty at the end of

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Speaker 2: the year and you start looking at, well, they need

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Speaker 2: they need to get this, and they had lost to

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Speaker 2: those teams. Yeah, they had lost the Patriots, they had

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Speaker 2: lost to the Dolphins, they had lost the Jets, so

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Speaker 2: it was going to be difficult for them to get

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Speaker 2: in this year. It's the opposite. They don't plenty of

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Speaker 2: those teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I doubt you're battling the Colts for the last

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Speaker 1: playoff spot or Patrick, you know what I mean?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean if you look at the teams

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Speaker 2: that are going to be in it, Miami, the Chargers,

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Speaker 2: the Jets, who else You're gonna play Baltimore in Cleveland?

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Speaker 1: Right, But yeah, you basically nailed it. What's the chances

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Speaker 1: those guys have well above a five hundred conference record?

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Speaker 1: Probably pretty slim.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So win those games and you should be sitting

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Speaker 2: pretty if you if you get the ten wins.

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Speaker 1: And honestly, if you lose the Seattle and San Franz

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Speaker 1: it doesn't hurt you that bad. But that's the case

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Speaker 1: for every team.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but you'd like to have those wins, you know,

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Speaker 2: at least split those games.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Chargers come in at eight point nine wins

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Speaker 2: for the Chargers. They're over unders nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm kind of surprised it's that low. They have an

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Speaker 2: early bye week in week five, and then they come

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Speaker 2: out of that. Listen to this stretch versus the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: This is after after their Week five by Yeah, to

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Speaker 2: get the Cowboys at home, which that's going to be

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Speaker 2: a home game for the Cowboys. Yeah, at the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: the Bears at home, then at the Jets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not easy, that's for sure.

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Speaker 2: That's a stretch. And then they in week sixty and

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Speaker 2: they play the Bills.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. She mentions at least they have a semi long

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Speaker 1: week because they have a Thursday night or the week

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Speaker 1: before for that Bills game.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I don't like their chances like to right

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Speaker 2: now you can you can bet. She also has the

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Speaker 2: odds on this to make the playoffs. Right now, the

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Speaker 2: Steelers are plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 1: That's not a bad bet.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind that at all. Like you look

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Speaker 2: at the Chargers, for example.

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Speaker 1: Are minus the Chargers, I would not bet on minus.

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Speaker 2: One oh five. I'm looking at somebody like the Browns

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Speaker 2: are plus one ten. You can get better odds on

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Speaker 2: the Steelers to make the playoffs. In the Browns, I

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Speaker 2: like that bet better as well. I probably wouldn't not

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Speaker 2: bet on the Chargers or Browns to go. No, it's

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Speaker 2: there's not it's not enough. I'm there. Yeah, here's where

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Speaker 2: I think things go a little wonky for the Titans.

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Speaker 2: At eight point one wins, they're over under seven and

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Speaker 2: a half. I would go under that. I would as

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Speaker 2: much respect as I have for Mike Vrabel, Sure, I'm

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Speaker 2: not buying that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the only thing they have gon for him

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Speaker 1: is what if they're four and two in the division.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking at their strength of schedule. It's

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Speaker 1: seventh easiest.

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Speaker 2: Well, they play the they play the NFC South this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so all their South games are nice? Yeah, just

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Speaker 1: ten games. But I think they're bad like football team,

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Speaker 1: Yeah right right, And they're one of those teams that

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Speaker 1: maybe they I don't know. I keep harping on this

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Speaker 1: that I don't think Tannehill finishes as a quarterback. I

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Speaker 1: don't know that Henry will be there for all seventeen games,

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Speaker 1: you know.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Broncos are at eight point one wins, they're

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Speaker 2: over unders eight and a half.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what to think of them. They're they're

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Speaker 1: schedules right in the middle of the league. I have

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Speaker 1: a lot of respect for Sean Payton, and frankly, I

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Speaker 1: think and I may regret this in a big way.

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Speaker 1: I bet he turns Wilson into a respectable quarterback again. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: well I'll star, but a respectable yeah. Uh.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots come in at seven point nine wins. They're

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Speaker 2: over under his seven and a half. No way, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I go under that tote.

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Speaker 1: I mean they start the season hosting the Eagles, hosting

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins, at the Jets, at the Cowboys. That's not

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Speaker 1: going for that smells I going for wow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah rough.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: Then the Raiders at six point eight wins, they're over

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Speaker 2: under seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think they're good.

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Speaker 2: I would buy I get in on that. The Houston Texas,

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Speaker 2: see this is where it goes crazy. Like the Houston

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Speaker 2: Texas five point nine wins, the over unders five and

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Speaker 2: a half. I would go under the five and a half.

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Speaker 1: I would se Yeah, six and eleven seems rich for

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Speaker 1: that football team.

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Speaker 2: A little rich.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they did some good things on offense,

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Speaker 1: but they still have a rookie quarterback and their defense

355
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Speaker 1: is still a nightmare. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And then the Colts have the last lowest win total

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Speaker 2: in the AFC at five point six. They're over under

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Speaker 2: win total with six and a half. You can get

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Speaker 2: plus plus one oh five plus one oh five on

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Speaker 2: that one. I don't like that.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I'll take the over on the coltsick. I mean again,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're great, but I think the quarterback

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Speaker 1: play there was so bad and only the Panthers, Falcons

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Speaker 1: and Saints have an easier schedules.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's remember too, that's a rookie head coach. Oh,

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Speaker 2: I know, I know with a rookie quarter rookie head

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Speaker 2: coach with a rookie quarterback. That screams to me that

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Speaker 2: they're not going to be very good.

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Speaker 1: Oh, I think they're seven and ten, eight to nine.

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Speaker 2: Think they're doing to see him. I don't see him

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Speaker 2: getting to that total. I just don't other offensive line

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Speaker 2: is still a mess.

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Speaker 1: See, I think they have some of that as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: like with the Bears, just gonna be hard to play against.

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Speaker 1: Their style of play is difficult, you know.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we'll see. I don't even know what their

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Speaker 2: style of play is going to be.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a very Eagle Hurts quarterback centric Jonathan.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if they start the season with him

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Speaker 2: at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: I don't know either. I mean it might be a while.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Pardner Minshew is not not awful. No, you

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Speaker 2: and and you don't want to throw the kid out

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Speaker 2: there and let him and let him drown. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's only he's on once, he started fourteen career games.

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Speaker 2: Like he needs a package the first month or so. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: he needs some seasoning. Yeah, yeah, this could be a

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Speaker 2: very Lamar like situation where you know, halfway through the season,

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Speaker 2: maybe you make the change. And I don't think he's

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Speaker 2: as good as Lamar.

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Speaker 1: No, No, I don't either, But they're busy. Owner will

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Speaker 1: have him played soon. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Well, but that's your that's your AFC win. So it

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Speaker 2: was real quick. We'll run through the NFC here before

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Speaker 2: we take another break. So over in the NFC, you

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Speaker 2: got the Eagles at eleven point one wins, the forty

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Speaker 2: nine Ers at ten point nine. I'd go under that,

398
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Speaker 2: The Lions at nine point six. You see the drop off.

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Speaker 1: Though in the NFC conference is so bad.

400
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Speaker 2: The Cowboys at nine point six, the Saints at eight

401
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Speaker 2: point nine. So they got four teams in the NFC

402
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Speaker 2: who come in, presumably in her projections, with a winning record.

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Speaker 1: Only only four did you say, I'm trying.

404
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Speaker 2: To Yeah, because the Saints are at eight point nine. Well,

405
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Speaker 2: if they win eight, they're eight. They're eight and nine.

406
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Speaker 2: The Seahawks are eight point nine, the Falcons are eight

407
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Speaker 2: point seven. They have like the easiest schedule in the league.

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Speaker 1: Don't they say that whole division as the easiest schedule. Go, Yeah, you.

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Speaker 2: Get the Vikings at eight point two, the Bears at

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Speaker 2: eight point two, the Bears at eight point two, at

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Speaker 2: eight point two, yeah, the Giants at seven point nine.

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Speaker 1: Giants at seven nine. But we talked about their schedule.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's rough.

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Speaker 1: Last segment that was ugly, ugly, ugly.

415
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Speaker 2: The Panthers at seven point nine, the Rams at six

416
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Speaker 2: point nine, the Commander's at six point six. The Packers.

417
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Speaker 2: The Packers have five primetime games and they come in

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Speaker 2: with a win total six point four.

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Speaker 1: Wow, I mean I think they might get the seven wins.

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Speaker 2: I don't know. A lot depends on the quarterback. The

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Speaker 2: go off the rails easily real quick. The Buccaneers are

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Speaker 2: at six point four. The Cardinals at four point four

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Speaker 2: is the worst. Wow, four point four, I mean they're

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Speaker 2: they're over under in Vegas is five five. Can you

425
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Speaker 2: imagine being six and eleven?

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Speaker 1: I can't.

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Speaker 2: No, I don't see any way they get to that. No,

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Speaker 2: I mean, when is Kyler gonna play? Willie play?

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Speaker 1: Doesn't matter if he plays, I mean he's not John

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Speaker 1: Yunitis and right Fence is horrible and right hey.

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Speaker 2: You can subscribe now to the Drive. Every episode we

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Speaker 2: do is available for you to download. Subscribe today through

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Speaker 2: the Steeler's mobile app, the iHeartRadio app, and wherever you

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Speaker 2: find your podcast. He is Matt Williamson. I am Dale Lollie.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna take a break. We'll be back with more

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Speaker 2: right after this