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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: Are you going to place a bet?

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Speaker 1: Doll?

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Speaker 2: Walk?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 1: Our experts guide to betting series is back. This is

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Speaker 1: the MLB edition. I'm your host, Maria Marino, excited to

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Speaker 1: be joined by Action Network MLB expert Sean Zarillo. He

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Speaker 1: is co host of Payoff Pitch, which is Action's baseball

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Speaker 1: betting podcast, and the writer of Opening Pitch, which is

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Speaker 1: Action's wildly popular daily betting article.

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Speaker 2: Sean, how are we doing doing great? Looking forward to

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Speaker 2: the second half of the baseball season. It's nice to

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Speaker 2: have a turning point and you know, a little breather

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Speaker 2: before we jump into just the craziness that looks like

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Speaker 2: it's going to be the stretch round of the twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three season. Really only a few teams out of it,

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Speaker 2: So looking forward to the trade deadline, the stretch round,

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Speaker 2: but looking forward to talking some MLB betting strategy with

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Speaker 2: you today.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's do just that. But before we do,

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Speaker 1: can you just talk about your background as an expert

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Speaker 1: and what makes you qualified to bet baseball at the

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Speaker 1: level that you do.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think repetition over time, you know,

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Speaker 2: certainly feel more experience now than I did a few

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Speaker 2: years ago when I started action, But even before then,

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Speaker 2: you know, I always wanted to work in baseball. I

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Speaker 2: was a child who read moneyball when I was twelve

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Speaker 2: and wanted baseball to be my career path. Always wanted

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Speaker 2: a job in baseball. Worked in finance quasi legal, quasi

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Speaker 2: financial role for a little bit and gain knowledge of markets,

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Speaker 2: you know, passing the Series seven, Series sixty three exams,

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Speaker 2: just gain more knowledge of how financial markets work, and

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Speaker 2: largely you can apply some of that knowledge to betting

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Speaker 2: on sports. So after that went out to work for

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Speaker 2: a company called Sports Info Solutions in Pennsylvania. They're responsible

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Speaker 2: for a lot of data and analysis that you see

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Speaker 2: powering data on sites like fangraft CESPN, but response both

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Speaker 2: for creating defensive rown saved and what I really love

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Speaker 2: doing there. The people do there is blend scouting and data.

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Speaker 2: You know, you have people watching games taking detailed analysis

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Speaker 2: of every play, but then all of that data gets

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Speaker 2: fed through the models that you see powered on Baseball

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Speaker 2: Savant and stack past tracking data. So it's kind of

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Speaker 2: a blend of data tracking that we have and the

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Speaker 2: you know, thousands of data points per second that you

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Speaker 2: can capture, also blended with people actually scouting plays. So

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Speaker 2: really love that sort of education that I got there

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Speaker 2: interviewing with Major League teams. But Action Network was always

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Speaker 2: something that I had my eye on and helping people

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Speaker 2: learn how to bet on baseball better, and you know,

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Speaker 2: identifying data points that I think are relevant for helping

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Speaker 2: predict games and predict outcomes and predict season long projections

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Speaker 2: for teams. You know, both the macro and the micro

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Speaker 2: in terms of looking at baseball from a top down perspective.

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Speaker 1: All right, based on that explanation alone, clearly you are

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Speaker 1: uniquely qualified. We have a term at Action Network. It's

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Speaker 1: called nerds. We're a lot of nerds here at Action Network.

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Speaker 1: But for the regular baseball fan, the regular better, every

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Speaker 1: day casual better, how can someone like them become good

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Speaker 1: at betting a sport like MLB.

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Speaker 2: So the first thing I'd say is to be price sensitive,

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Speaker 2: and that applies not just to baseball but across other sports.

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Speaker 2: But it's much more identifiable in terms of how you

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Speaker 2: analyze your baseball bets after the fact, because largely baseball

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Speaker 2: is a moneyline driven sport other than totals. But you're

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Speaker 2: not betting spreads as much in baseball, at least I'm not.

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Speaker 2: I think there's more value to be found in the

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Speaker 2: moneyline market, and just in terms of how a season

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Speaker 2: will go right. If you're betting at average odds of

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Speaker 2: minus one fifty sixty percent implied odds but winning sixty

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Speaker 2: two percent of the time, it's going to give you

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Speaker 2: essentially the same returns. If you're betting plus one fifty

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Speaker 2: average odds of four and winning forty two percent of

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Speaker 2: the time. You know, across one hundred bets, you're going

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Speaker 2: to end up playing more money to place those minus

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Speaker 2: one fifty bets than you will the plus one fifty bets,

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Speaker 2: but your return should still be about five units on

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Speaker 2: either side if you're beating both of those margins by

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Speaker 2: two percent. So keep an eye on your win rate

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Speaker 2: relative to your average odds, not just your win rate overall,

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Speaker 2: because when you're betting minus one ten odds generally in

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Speaker 2: football or basketball on a spread, you need to hit

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Speaker 2: about fifty four fifty five and a half percent of

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Speaker 2: the time to feel like you had a good season.

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Speaker 2: In baseball, it's all relative to what your actual average

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Speaker 2: money lines odds are so be attentive to the average

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Speaker 2: ods that you're betting at, be attentive to your win

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Speaker 2: rate relative to those average odds, and be extremely price sensitive.

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Speaker 2: When you're placing bets, you know have a price target

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Speaker 2: and don't be willing to go past it. You should

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Speaker 2: set an edge bar higher than where you might project

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Speaker 2: the game, just to ensure that you have a little

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Speaker 2: bit of cushion relative to the big that's set in

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Speaker 2: the market as well. So attentiveness to price scitivity is

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Speaker 2: the number one piece of advice I could give you,

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Speaker 2: not only for betting on baseball, but for betting on

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Speaker 2: any sport beyond that. You're gonna have to bet a

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Speaker 2: lot at bad teams. I mean, it's just something that

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Speaker 2: you have to get comfortable with, is being uncomfortable with

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Speaker 2: the teams that you're betting on. The pitchers that you're

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Speaker 2: betting on, you can identify, we'll talk about this later,

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Speaker 2: pitchers who may be overvalued or undervalued compared to the

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Speaker 2: betting market. But you're going to bet on the same

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Speaker 2: pitchers a lot, and some of them may not be

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Speaker 2: particularly strong. They just may be slightly undervalued compared to

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Speaker 2: where the market has them. And then The last thing

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Speaker 2: is just to grind it out. It's a seven month season.

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Speaker 2: You don't have to win five units a day. If

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Speaker 2: you win a third of a unit every day across

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Speaker 2: a seven month MLB season, six months of the regular

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Speaker 2: season and then a month of the playoffs, you're going

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Speaker 2: to come out at about seventy units above zero at

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Speaker 2: the end of the year. And that's just winning a

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Speaker 2: third of a unit on average every day. So grind

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Speaker 2: it out. There's plenty of games, no reason to force

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Speaker 2: a big percentage of your bank roll into any individual day.

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Speaker 2: There's plenty of games across the season, including the playoffs,

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Speaker 2: about twenty seven hundred total games that you have to

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Speaker 2: put action on. And within those individual games, there's multiple

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Speaker 2: markets as well as sides, totals first five sides and totals,

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Speaker 2: and then you know props beyond that, so so many

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Speaker 2: options across an entire MLB season, where football you're cramming

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Speaker 2: it all into about twenty weeks.

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Speaker 1: Well, because it's such a long season, it becomes that

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Speaker 1: much more important to play the numbers game in order

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Speaker 1: to bet responsibly and plan your budget accordingly. And it's

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Speaker 1: also you know you're playing the long game it's not

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Speaker 1: about to your point, being profitable day to day, but

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Speaker 1: over the course of a super long season.

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Speaker 2: But for someone who might not.

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Speaker 1: Be betting every single day or on every slate, but

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Speaker 1: maybe just more of a hobby, not as perhaps dedicated

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Speaker 1: as you would be. Just help lay out the basics

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Speaker 1: of betting baseball and just having fun with it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, tventy percent of betting any individual game is

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Speaker 2: almost comes down to the starting pitchers. Now, we have

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Speaker 2: so much predictive data at this point, but it seems

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Speaker 2: to evolve every year. So it started out with PIP.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you're just starting to delve into advanced statistics,

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Speaker 2: FIP is generally something that you'll see pop up, which

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Speaker 2: is fielding independent pitching. But anybody who talks about baseball

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Speaker 2: is going to talk about the advanced statistics. I think

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Speaker 2: the advantage relative to those other people is which statistics

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Speaker 2: you're selecting and using. We've seen this evolution starting the

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Speaker 2: fielding independent pitching, evolving into expected fielding independent pitching, and

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Speaker 2: now we have things like expected the array, which we've

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Speaker 2: talked about in recent years, but it's gone even further

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Speaker 2: in terms of a granular step where we can now

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Speaker 2: actually predict pitchers based on what's coming out of their

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Speaker 2: hand and using models to identify certain pitch types that

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Speaker 2: are like other pitch types. So as you watch Major

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Speaker 2: League Baseball, if you're a baseball fan, you know that

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Speaker 2: pitchers modify their pitch mixes from year to year, but

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Speaker 2: sometimes even in season, velocity levels fluctuate up and down.

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Speaker 2: Hitters may change mechanics at the plate, improve or decline.

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Speaker 2: But it really is a very dynamic and fluid sport

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Speaker 2: to try to evaluate, because it really is a one

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Speaker 2: versus one sport that is played on a team level,

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Speaker 2: but where there's so many one versus one interactions between

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Speaker 2: batters and pitchers that we're actually able to predict it

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Speaker 2: to a pretty high degree. But as I said, the

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Speaker 2: difference comes into which predictive data you're actually selecting at

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Speaker 2: this point. So you know the other things that really

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Speaker 2: factor into the analysis, right beyond the starting pitchers, ballparks,

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Speaker 2: all of the different dimensions, the run scoring environment relatively

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Speaker 2: gaverage the umpires. While we still have a non automated

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Speaker 2: strike zone that may go away from the game in

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Speaker 2: a couple of years. Won't come in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 2: but maybe in twenty twenty five, because it seems to

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Speaker 2: be having a lot of success in the minor leagues,

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Speaker 2: and even the batter is being able to challenge called strikes,

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Speaker 2: not not a fully automated strike zone, but potentially you know,

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Speaker 2: a batter challenge system like we see in ten with

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Speaker 2: players being able to call out or in. But that

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Speaker 2: you know, that's really it's it's the pictures is so

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Speaker 2: much of the line, and then the totals is really

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Speaker 2: influenced by the ballparks, the umpires, the win in weather,

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Speaker 2: and you have to be attentive too to the fact

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Speaker 2: that there's some ballparks that even convert from an offensive

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Speaker 2: park to a pictures park within the same game. Toronto

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Speaker 2: sometimes closes their roof if bad weather is coming. In

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Speaker 2: Chase Field. Sometimes in Arizona opens or closes their roof

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Speaker 2: dependent on the weather. So there's lots of minutia to

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Speaker 2: pay attention to regards to the handicapping baseball. But that

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Speaker 2: that is, you know, the big picture analysis.

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Speaker 1: It seems like professional baseball might be the most important

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Speaker 1: sport to understand where the game is being played. I understand,

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Speaker 1: you know, in NFL we have some domes, but it's

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Speaker 1: a lot easier to remember, you know, a couple of

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Speaker 1: those versus in baseball, the fact that the stadiums are

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Speaker 1: not all uniform and that they have different dimensions. It

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Speaker 1: just brings another layer to it. But beyond that, as

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Speaker 1: far as the data points that you mentioned, what other

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Speaker 1: tools and resources do we need to have in our

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Speaker 1: toolkit to become as sharp MLB better?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, being aware of basically which relievers may

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Speaker 2: be available in a particular day could help you live

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Speaker 2: at the sport. We can talk about live betting later,

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Speaker 2: but being aware of offensive splits right, how teams perform

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Speaker 2: against right handed pitching versus left handed pitching. As I said,

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Speaker 2: with starting pitchers factoring into that much of the line,

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Speaker 2: the handedness splits for the relative offenses and the relative

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Speaker 2: players on those offenses I think is extremely important for

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Speaker 2: how they match up with that individual pitcher. You can also,

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Speaker 2: if you want to go step further, dive into a

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Speaker 2: lot of specific pitch or run value data for specific

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Speaker 2: pitch arsenals, how offenses perform or how players perform against

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Speaker 2: specific pitch types, how the relative pitch types for that

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Speaker 2: pitcher have done on the season, So you can get

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Speaker 2: a lot of matchup based data in terms of the

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Speaker 2: matchups or in terms of the you know, the handedness

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Speaker 2: of the pitcher against the offense, and all that stuff

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Speaker 2: you can find on Baseball Savant, you can find on fangrafts.

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Speaker 2: There's a lot of publicly available information pakoda as well

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Speaker 2: via baseball perspectives and if you're not on a game

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Speaker 2: to game basis even but on a season long perspective,

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Speaker 2: looking more for futures analysis, public based projections terms of

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Speaker 2: where they think teams might finish for the division, or

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Speaker 2: have a chance of winning their division, the chances of

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Speaker 2: winning the World Series. All of that is very publicly available.

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Speaker 2: And the reason why I like to mention it because

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Speaker 2: even though I make my own numbers, when you sort

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Speaker 2: of composite those out and average those out, I've been

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Speaker 2: able to approve it of the past five years. You know,

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Speaker 2: compared to preseason win totals alone, a composite projection, averaging

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Speaker 2: all of those projections together, it's going to win close

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Speaker 2: to sixty percent of the time, where if you take

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Speaker 2: any of them individually, they're only hitting it about a

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Speaker 2: fifth fifty one fifty two percent clip and sort of

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Speaker 2: aligning with the market so I think just using as

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Speaker 2: much data as you can, compositing it, averaging it together,

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Speaker 2: I think that's extremely valuable. And there's more data available

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Speaker 2: to use, as I said, for predictive analysis in baseball,

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Speaker 2: as there is for any other sport, and maybe all

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Speaker 2: the other sports combined. So take advantage of everything that's

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Speaker 2: out there and try to identify what you think is relevant.

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Speaker 1: Another thing you can certainly take advantage of is the

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Speaker 1: Action App. What makes the Action app so useful to

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Speaker 1: you in particular, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for line shopping, I think it's phenomenal.

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Speaker 2: You know, you can load up all of your sports

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Speaker 2: books that you have accounts at into the app, and

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Speaker 2: then when I'm handicapping a particular card, generally between nine

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Speaker 2: pm three am, but as I figure out my projections

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Speaker 2: for these games, I load them into a spreadsheet and

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Speaker 2: then I literally pull up the Action App. I have

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Speaker 2: it balanced on my computer, you know, almost as a

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Speaker 2: second screen in the quarter, and I just punch them

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Speaker 2: into the spreadsheet the best available line on either side,

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Speaker 2: and I'm able see my edges compared to my projected odds.

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Speaker 2: So it really is phenomenal for line shopping especially, you know,

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Speaker 2: not only for that particular instance, but throughout the day.

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Speaker 2: I can set alerts to tell me when a line

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Speaker 2: crosses a particular threshold that I might want to bet

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Speaker 2: that I might be waiting on. As I mentioned price targets,

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Speaker 2: you know, if I'm waiting on a number to get

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Speaker 2: to a certain range, it can help notify me when

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Speaker 2: that occurs. If you want to keep an eye in

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Speaker 2: particular games as they're going on scoring alerts, what have you,

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Speaker 2: it'll notify you every time, you know, run scores in

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Speaker 2: a particular game. So for my sport in particular, I

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Speaker 2: think it's phenomenal, but you know, across all sports, not

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Speaker 2: only in terms of being able to line shop, but

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Speaker 2: then also in terms of tracking your bets. You know,

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Speaker 2: I play such a high volume of bets across the

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Speaker 2: course of a Major League Baseball season on a daily basis,

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Speaker 2: just keeps me, you know, from having to do all

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Speaker 2: that manual bet tracking myself. So I think it's great

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Speaker 2: both for pregame and then postgame being able to look

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Speaker 2: back on your results where the line's closed and you know,

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Speaker 2: doesn't exactly tell you the CLV, but you're able to

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Speaker 2: compare it so easily to the number that you bet

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Speaker 2: the game at. So, as I said, both pre and postgame,

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Speaker 2: I think it's an extremely valuable tool.

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Speaker 1: At Zurillo on the Action app. And as you mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 1: it's just so important to know your win rate and

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Speaker 1: that's going to inform how you bet moving forward. You

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Speaker 1: also mentioned preseason versus in season, so let's talk about

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Speaker 1: how you approach MLB before the season even gets going.

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Speaker 2: In the offseason. Yeah, you know, baseball has been very

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Speaker 2: difficult from year to year recently because the baseball is

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Speaker 2: changing every season. We added new rules this year with

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Speaker 2: the larger bases, the new disengagement rules for the pitchers,

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Speaker 2: which has increased stolen bases by I'm not sure if

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Speaker 2: the number was forty percent or seventy percent, but it's

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Speaker 2: at least forty percent that stolen bases have gone up.

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Speaker 2: Stolen base attempts have gone up in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: It might be even more dramatic than that, but you know,

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Speaker 2: new rules this year, maybe more new rules that come

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Speaker 2: in the future with the automated strike zone, just change

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Speaker 2: slightly how these veteran pitchers get strikes or don't get strikes.

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Speaker 2: You know, guys like Adam Wainwright and Shane Bieber. I

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Speaker 2: watched their starts and they still get the respect of

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Speaker 2: those umpires, where with an automated strike zone they may

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Speaker 2: not be getting calls on the edge of the zone

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Speaker 2: that they are right now. But year to year the

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Speaker 2: new baseballs has absolutely driven me crazy. Human ores were

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Speaker 2: installed in some parks secretly during my time in Action

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Speaker 2: Network and then publicly installed across all thirty parks within

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Speaker 2: the following year, so we've had a lot of secrecy

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Speaker 2: with regards to the baseballs. With regards to these humidors,

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Speaker 2: haven't really had a stable year over year environment to

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Speaker 2: be able to protecting things into, so there's been a

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Speaker 2: lot of analysis shifts being banned this year helping left

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Speaker 2: handed hitters, so much minutia that have had to dig

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Speaker 2: through year over year, we haven't really had much consistency,

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Speaker 2: and you know, I don't really expect that to go

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Speaker 2: away completely in the future. So paying attention to all

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Speaker 2: of those changes every season has led to bigger edges

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Speaker 2: in April and a lot of success betting baseball in

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Speaker 2: April before the rest of the betting market is able

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Speaker 2: to adjust. So I think your edges are going to

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Speaker 2: come early if they come at all, and being able

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Speaker 2: to pay attention to those changes during spring during the

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Speaker 2: off season is something that I found has been profitable,

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Speaker 2: not just you know, worth my time, but actually benefited

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Speaker 2: my time. And then the other thing I'd say to

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Speaker 2: pay attention to now is we get more So we

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Speaker 2: get more pitchers and more players going to sports science

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Speaker 2: places like drive Line Baseball in the off season. There's

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Speaker 2: a lot more improvement that is coming outside of these

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Speaker 2: individual organizations on a player development scale. So keep an

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Speaker 2: eye on who's going where in the off season. You know,

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Speaker 2: who's adding new pitches. These guys are very willing to

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Speaker 2: post that stuff on social media when they think they've

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Speaker 2: made substantial improvements.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm glad you brought up a silver lining to

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Speaker 1: the challenge of keeping up with all these changes, and

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Speaker 1: that's you know, potentially getting an early edge on the season.

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Speaker 1: But how do you attack the future's market?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, as I mentioned before, you know, there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of publicly available projections that you can use to your benefit,

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Speaker 2: whether it's taking those Pacoda projections, Davenport projections, Fangrafs projections,

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Speaker 2: averaging them together seeing where you might find value relative

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Speaker 2: to the win total market. As I said, if you

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Speaker 2: average those three together average out with mind, but even individually,

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Speaker 2: averaging those three out, you can definitely gain an edge

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Speaker 2: on the baseball batting market in terms of win totals,

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Speaker 2: especially if you're early, you know, in first in terms

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Speaker 2: of getting the money down before those lines have adjusted,

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Speaker 2: but generally those are going to come out around Super

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Speaker 2: Bowl time, if not a bit before. But in terms

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Speaker 2: of player futures, there's even more projections available because people

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Speaker 2: aren't looking at forecasting you know, how the teams are

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Speaker 2: going to do overall with those players, but just forecasting

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Speaker 2: how they think players can do across the season, and

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Speaker 2: what I like to do, especially for player props hits, leader,

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Speaker 2: home runs later, et cetera. I'm identifying players whose projected

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Speaker 2: range I think is outside of the players they're bucketed

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Speaker 2: with in terms of odds. So, for example, if I

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Speaker 2: think a player is going to be a top ten

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Speaker 2: home run hitter, you know, hit around thirty five to

355
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Speaker 2: forty home runs, but on the odds board, he's about

356
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Speaker 2: fifty to one, and he's ranked closer to players who

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Speaker 2: are projected to hit twenty five to thirty home runs,

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Speaker 2: that's a very obvious bet for me, because he's not

359
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Speaker 2: bucketed on the odds board relative to where his projected

360
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Speaker 2: peers are. The other thing I'd recommend to is the

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Speaker 2: dry identified players who may exceed their playing time projections.

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Speaker 2: Because forecasting players on statistics that are based on an

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Speaker 2: average function of playing time, for example, dividing hits by

364
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Speaker 2: plate appearances or home runs by plate appearances, you may

365
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Speaker 2: be able to see players who, if they gain more

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Speaker 2: playing time throughout a season, will be able to exceed

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Speaker 2: those expectations. And I have a shot of potentially capturing

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Speaker 2: a category. I've been betting on Luis to rise for

369
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Speaker 2: the past few seasons to be the major league hits

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Speaker 2: leader because on a per playing time basis, he's expected

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Speaker 2: to be one of the hits leaders in baseball generally,

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Speaker 2: though his teams have sit him against left handed pitching,

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Speaker 2: even the Marlins have done it a little bit this year,

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Speaker 2: so he doesn't have as big of a lead as

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Speaker 2: you might expect. But at twenty to one, thirty to

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Speaker 2: one the past few years, even as high as fifty

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Speaker 2: to one, he's been a great value bed.

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Speaker 1: Really good to know. Okay, so let's get back to

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Speaker 1: in season game to game you mentioned earlier, just identifying

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Speaker 1: pitchers value or vice versa. Take us through just like

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Speaker 1: your process of your going line by line and what's

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Speaker 1: standing out and what catches your eye.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know, everything is run through a model.

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Speaker 2: Everything is player based. There's a preseason projection in there,

385
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Speaker 2: and then there's also aspects of the data that are

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Speaker 2: in season data. Obviously, as the season goes on and

387
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Speaker 2: we have more confidence in that eten season data, we're

388
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Speaker 2: able to factor it in more aggressively. But by and large,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'm going through each individual game finding data

390
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Speaker 2: points that maybe outliers. For example, a player hasn't pitched,

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Speaker 2: you know, more than ten innings this season. I don't

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Speaker 2: want that data sample weighing into heavily compared to that

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Speaker 2: preseason projection. So just making sure everything's right, nothing is

394
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Speaker 2: being weighted too heavily relative to playing time on the season,

395
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Speaker 2: identifying any potential other errors that are in there. But

396
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Speaker 2: then taking those numbers, taking my projections and comparing them

397
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Speaker 2: to the market after I've adjusted for weather, et cetera.

398
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Speaker 2: But you know, comparing my number to the market and

399
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Speaker 2: basically looking for any edge that is two percent or

400
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Speaker 2: higher compared to my projected number, digging a little bit

401
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 2: deeper from there into the players, you know, just making

402
00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 2: sure pitcher velocity trends haven't moved significantly in recent starts,

403
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 2: or that there's stuff plus ratings things like that haven't

404
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,239
Speaker 2: trended particularly up or down since I have you know,

405
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 2: factored in a season long sample where you may get

406
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Speaker 2: more recency bias where player is trending in a different direction.

407
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: But beyond that, just looking for the projected edges once

408
00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 2: those projected lines are finalized, and looking for an edge

409
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Speaker 2: that's about two percent or more compared to my projected number,

410
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 2: and essentially playing them on a volume basis. You know,

411
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Speaker 2: my advantage doesn't come from projecting any individual game of

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Speaker 2: an edge of at least two percent, because baseball has

413
00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 2: so much variance. But over the course of a season,

414
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Speaker 2: my advantage comes from placing a volume of bets. So

415
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Speaker 2: you might be able to match my return on investment

416
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 2: telling me in a few bets, but the more I

417
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Speaker 2: am able to get down one hundred dollars two hundred dollars,

418
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,399
Speaker 2: I'm expecting to get a two and a half to

419
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Speaker 2: three percent return every time I put my money down,

420
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Speaker 2: so volume of bets. That's why I plays a ton

421
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 2: of bets. That's why I like the availability to place

422
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 2: a ton of bets across a full season, just because

423
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Speaker 2: I think the more I'm able to express that edge,

424
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Speaker 2: the more I'm able to accumulate.

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Speaker 1: So as you're going through and searching for those outliers,

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Speaker 1: that includes for prop betting opportunities.

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Speaker 2: Correct, Yeah, you know, prop betting not something I have

428
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Speaker 2: as much time to project, right because the markets I

429
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: am able to focus on take up so much time.

430
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Speaker 2: It's amongst the biggest betting markets that we have in

431
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Speaker 2: any space, particularly over the summer, once all the football

432
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 2: money that earned, basketball money, hockey money that is invested

433
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 2: in other sports kind of flood the baseball market for

434
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:03,360
Speaker 2: a little bit. You know, there's a lot of sharp

435
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: betters out there and they have friends who project baseball.

436
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,880
Speaker 2: They may not pay attention to it while their seasons

437
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: are going on right the sports that they pay attention to,

438
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,920
Speaker 2: but they want that action in the summer, so they

439
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,600
Speaker 2: will tell their friends bets who are doing this at

440
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: a high level, and it's just putting more money in

441
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 2: the market and making the entire thing. Sharper I think

442
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 2: it's why it's actually more difficult to make money over

443
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 2: June July than it is to make it at April

444
00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: and September. It's, you know, something I've thought about quite

445
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 2: a bit, but there actually is something to it. But

446
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: that said, prop betting just presents another avenue for you

447
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 2: to find potential advantages if you're looking to get into

448
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 2: betting on baseball, If you're willing to put in the

449
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: time and the effort and focus on an individual market,

450
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:46,760
Speaker 2: you know, such as Sean Kerner does with strikeout props

451
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 2: for US, I think you can actually find a pretty

452
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: significant advantage if you're willing to focus on one market.

453
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 2: So that would be my advice to anybody who's looking

454
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:58,199
Speaker 2: into getting too seriously betting on baseball. It doesn't have

455
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 2: to be size your totals. It could be out recorded

456
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 2: props for pitchers. It could be totals props for hitters.

457
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 2: There might be something that you're able to exploit if

458
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 2: you're really good at taking the time to project these

459
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,720
Speaker 2: out and pay attention to the markets on a daily basis.

460
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,080
Speaker 2: You don't have to focus on full game signs and totals.

461
00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: That's just what I choose to do. It just presents

462
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 2: more opportunity for the casual better to get involved and

463
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: then also for people who want to take it more

464
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 2: seriously for them to potentially exploit edges continually on a

465
00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 2: day to day basis.

466
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,880
Speaker 1: That sounds good. What about live betting? Is that something

467
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: that you are passionate about?

468
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 2: Not so much? You know, in MMA, I sort of

469
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 2: pre script my live bets where I'm able to identify

470
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 2: advantages going into a game. If there is something in

471
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: terms of a hidden injury in a game that I'm

472
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 2: able to identify, where a player stays in a game

473
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: but it seems like he might come out, you know,

474
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 2: he's in the game for the rest of the inning

475
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: in a field and it seems like he may not

476
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 2: finish the game out. That might be something to take

477
00:23:55,520 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: advantage of, but it would be purely you know subject right,

478
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 2: You're just sort of doing it on the fly, And

479
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:05,959
Speaker 2: anything else that I would be doing in terms of

480
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 2: live betting would probably be pre planned. Where I see

481
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 2: a big advantage for a bullpen, but I don't really

482
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 2: want to bet on that starting pitcher for a particular team.

483
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: The other team, though, might have a bunch of relievers

484
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: out where once it gets to that fifth inning. If

485
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 2: that starter gets bold, I'm looking to target them live

486
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 2: on the money line once they bring their bullpen in,

487
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 2: or might be able to look to avoid an opener.

488
00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 2: There's a lot of scenarios, but almost all of them

489
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:37,680
Speaker 2: would be around a prescripted play. But in terms of timing,

490
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 2: I want to bet on a team as they're coming

491
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,639
Speaker 2: to their top of the lineup, either nine to one

492
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:44,679
Speaker 2: two or one two three in their batting order, and

493
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 2: I want to bet against the team as they're coming

494
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 2: to the bottom of their batting order. But I also

495
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 2: want to bet on a team as they're pitching, not

496
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 2: when they're hitting, because you're going to get a better

497
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 2: price on the team when they're pitchers on the mound

498
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 2: as opposed to when their lineup is coming up.

499
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 1: A couple of good rules of thumb there, And obviously,

500
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 1: if you're already taking the time to keep track of

501
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: some numbers and do some projections, those opportunities in game

502
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: I think would be a little bit easier to identify

503
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: at least. But what is the ultimate thrill for you

504
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 1: betting a baseball game? Because I know it's all business

505
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: for you, and you know everything you do is planned.

506
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,440
Speaker 1: But what just brings out sort of that you know, excitement.

507
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 2: Well, I'm here because I'm passionate about betting on baseball,

508
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: and you know, passionate about betting in general. But the

509
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 2: first thing that really got me into betting on baseball

510
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,719
Speaker 2: was home run leader props for the entire season. Having

511
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 2: Josh Hamilton, you know, at forty to one before a season,

512
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,240
Speaker 2: and then he hits four home runs in a game

513
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 2: in April, which, by the way, a four home run

514
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: game rareer than a perfect game, one of the most

515
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: fun achievements in sports. But to have a guy go

516
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,159
Speaker 2: off be leading the entire season and then he chokes

517
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:57,399
Speaker 2: it away in September, you know, sometimes those beats are

518
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 2: going to be more memorable than the tickets that you

519
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: cash easily, even at long on. But you know, sweating

520
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 2: long shot props across the season, sweating a same game parlay,

521
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,960
Speaker 2: you know, on an opening day at eight hundred to

522
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 2: one with Laggerer just needing the home run to cash it,

523
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 2: those things are going to be the beats that stick

524
00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,679
Speaker 2: with you, the sweats that stick with you even if

525
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 2: they don't cash, you know, as long as you're playing

526
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 2: them for reasonable amounts managing your bank roll correctly, doing

527
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,360
Speaker 2: it on special occasions, like I said, opening day, fourth

528
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:30,080
Speaker 2: of July, you know, holiday type of occasions. I love

529
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 2: those bets. They're always they're always the best sweats, and

530
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 2: you're always going to get the most interaction with them,

531
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,119
Speaker 2: because who doesn't want to tail an eight hundred to

532
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 2: one same game parlay an opening day that gets one

533
00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 2: leg shy of cashing. But you know is like I said,

534
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 2: long shot season long props, anything like thirty to one,

535
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 2: even twenty five to one or higher, those are always

536
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: fun to sweat across the season. Only takes one injury

537
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: to derail you. But it doesn't mean it's not fun

538
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 2: to sweat. And then, you know, as I've said before,

539
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 2: when it's when it's going well, when the good results,

540
00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:05,440
Speaker 2: your good COLV is actually aligning, it really doesn't get

541
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 2: better than that. The lows are so low betting on

542
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,440
Speaker 2: this sport, you know, the twenty unit down swings are

543
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 2: so low that when it is going well, it just

544
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 2: there really is an overwhelming sense of confidence going into

545
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,960
Speaker 2: any slate. So you know, even betting on these terrible pictures,

546
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:25,400
Speaker 2: these forty year old pitchers that are plus two hundred

547
00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 2: on the money line. You just have no problem laying

548
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 2: the bet that you would on any other day when

549
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: it's been going well for a little bit.

550
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:38,240
Speaker 1: That is the definition of trusting in the process. He

551
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: is an MLB expert here at Action Network, co hosts

552
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,640
Speaker 1: of Payoff Pitch Our Baseball Betting podcast, and the writer

553
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:51,120
Speaker 1: of Opening Pitch, our daily betting article on Action Network.

554
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: Shan Zarello, thanks so much for joining us on the

555
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: Experts Guide to Betting MLB edition.

556
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: Thank you for having me, Maria, Always pleasure talking.

557
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: Be on the lookout for our other expert Guides to

558
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,440
Speaker 1: sports betting, with episodes being released throughout the summer right

559
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel. Action

560
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

561
00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

562
00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler