1 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. We're only ten weeks 2 00:00:06,519 --> 00:00:10,120 Speaker 1: away from the November midterm elections, and I'm continuing our 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 1: series on the Road to the mid Terms, and today 4 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,720 Speaker 1: I want to focus on the US center races. You know, 5 00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: having been in politics for a long time, you begin 6 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: to notice certain patterns, and the elite left wing propaganda 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,880 Speaker 1: media can almost be counted on around August for their 8 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: drum beat reporting about how terrible Republican candidates are, how 9 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 1: they may have made it through the primaries, but they 10 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,919 Speaker 1: can't possibly win in November. There's a whole lot of 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: posturing that goes on at this time of the year, 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 1: particularly among Democrats and the propaganda media. So I want 13 00:00:41,760 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: to spend some time going race by race and talking 14 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: about why I think each Candida and the Republican ticket 15 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: is strong and can win in November. And here to 16 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: help us understand the US center races and the key 17 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: battleground states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Arizona. I'm 18 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: really pleased to welcome a very long time friend going back. 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 1: That's hard to imagine how many years somebody I worked 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 1: with in Georgia politics and who became a remarkable poster. 21 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 1: Matt Towery of Insider Advantage. Matt is a political analyst 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: and poster, television commentator, attorney, former Georgia State legislator. He 23 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 1: served in the Georgia House Representatives, was the Republican nominee 24 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 1: for Lieutenant Governor Georgia in nineteen ninety, and he served 25 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 1: as chairman of my political organization in the nineteen nineties. So, 26 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: as you can tell, I have a lot of both 27 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: affection and a deep debt to Matt. Matt, welcome and 28 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: thank you for joining me on Newts World. Oh wow, 29 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: thank you, Nude. I think the debt runs the other way, 30 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: but I'm happy to be with you. Well. Your company, 31 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: Insider Advantage, was one of the few polling companies that 32 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: predicted that Trump would win over Clinton in twenty sixteen. 33 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: Why do you think that is? Well, I think that 34 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:07,880 Speaker 1: it's both the way you collect your data and the 35 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: way you wait your data. As you well know you've 36 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: been in this business forever, there are few of us 37 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: who are willing to take the effort to not skew 38 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 1: our polls towards individuals who either a don't vote or 39 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: b tend to be not representative of the overall electorate. 40 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: I would say that Robert Haley at Trafalgar is one 41 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 1: I think insider advantage. I think just Susquehanna, the Raspbus 42 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: and national polls, there aren't many. And one of the 43 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: things that is a key newte is that you have 44 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:45,360 Speaker 1: to ask a very brief, short survey. So many pollsters 45 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: want to go in and ask thirty, forty, fifty, one 46 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,959 Speaker 1: hundred questions. And I always say, and I think Robert 47 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 1: Haley certainly agrees on this point, and that is that 48 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: who in the world is in these days is we 49 00:02:56,560 --> 00:02:59,359 Speaker 1: have to contact people via cell phone or via text. 50 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 1: Many people are going to answer a hundred or a 51 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: fifty or even a thirty question survey. The answer is 52 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: no one. So a lot of these polls that you 53 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: see that oftentimes skew a certain direction are not really 54 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: random surveys like you and I were used to back 55 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties and into the two thousands. 56 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 1: They're actually large political panels where people have agreed to 57 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: be surveyed, and of course that means they're hyper political, 58 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 1: and hyper political tends to lean left into the Democratic Party. 59 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: That's why we caught the Trump sort of upswing and 60 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: his victory, and others did not. Robert caught it. We did. 61 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:42,080 Speaker 1: There are some posters like Robert Kahley and myself who 62 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: have very short surveys. We tend to get a better 63 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: sample of the actual electorate. For example, a lot of 64 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: these surveys, if you look at them, fifty percent of 65 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: the people who reply say that they either have a 66 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: bachelor's degree or an advanced degree. Well, we know that's 67 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: not true in America. They're sampling people who are hyper 68 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 1: political from basically a pool of folks who have already 69 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: agreed to be interviewed over and over again. Robert, myself 70 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: and some of the other posters don't. And that's how 71 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: we caught the Trump went in twenty sixteen, and also 72 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: why we were much closer in our assessment of the 73 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:22,400 Speaker 1: swing states in twenty twenty. So, as you two are 74 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,599 Speaker 1: looking at the country, what is it you see that 75 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:31,039 Speaker 1: is so dramatically different from the propaganda media and their polls. Well, 76 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:35,160 Speaker 1: I think right now what we're seeing. I saw Republicans 77 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 1: doing very well several months ago when the Biden administration 78 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: was truly floundering. One of my big concerns is that 79 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: a lot of the consultants out there working for a 80 00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: Republican candidates seem to believe that labor days, when elections began, 81 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: you start running your ads. After that, they planned their 82 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 1: finances that way, they've planned their advice. That's no longer 83 00:04:56,440 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: the case. People can now be contacted by text, by email, 84 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 1: that's how we poll. That's made it easier to pull 85 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: during the vacation time period that for example, Republican demographics 86 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: seem to indicate Republicans are on the road. It also 87 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: means that people can reach candidates more easily. And I 88 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,039 Speaker 1: believe now the battle is in late August and early 89 00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: September because absentee ballot applications, for example in Georgia, they're 90 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:27,039 Speaker 1: going out right now, and people start to solidify in 91 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: terms of what they're going to do well before November. 92 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: So everything has been brought to a faster cycle. But 93 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that all of the folks who run campaigns, 94 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 1: probably for Democrats as well, but I know more Republicans, 95 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: I'm not sure they've really caught up to that the 96 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 1: way they should. When I first got in this business, 97 00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: we had election Day. Well, we now have election month exactly. 98 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 1: It's a totally different experience. And there are people who 99 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: lose on election day, who actually won on election day, 100 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: but they've already lost in the previous voting and the 101 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: absentee ballots and what have you. And there's been a 102 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,040 Speaker 1: number of those kind of cases. So let me ask you, 103 00:06:04,080 --> 00:06:06,320 Speaker 1: because I know you're doing pulling in a number of states, 104 00:06:06,920 --> 00:06:10,000 Speaker 1: I'll toss some states that you starting with a couple 105 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: that you know so well that you may well be 106 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: the premier expert. And the first one I want to 107 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: toss to you is Florida, which I think has both 108 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: with Governor DeSantis, with Marco Rubio, has a pretty strong 109 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 1: Republican ticket. But as you'll remember, not very many years ago, 110 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,640 Speaker 1: Florida was a really tough state that we were winning 111 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 1: by twenty thousand votes out of five million. What's your 112 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: sense of how Florida is trending. Well, you're spot on 113 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the past. And one of the things 114 00:06:39,600 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 1: that people don't realize is that Florida now, by registration, 115 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 1: is a Republican state growing every week as people move 116 00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:52,280 Speaker 1: from these pandemic stricken places around the country where there 117 00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: was tremendous lockdown, and as people tell us, the ability 118 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: to go out and enjoy their lives, and of course 119 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: you had the crime issues rise in many of the cities. 120 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 1: Folks who have abandoned those areas, they're moving to Florida. 121 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: Someone told me two thousand a day. And the majority 122 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: are registering now as Republicans, and so the Republicans have 123 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: a big advantage by registration. It is no longer the 124 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: purple situation that we saw a few years ago. At 125 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 1: increasingly read this Santus is extremely strong here. I think 126 00:07:23,880 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: the likelihood that either Nicky Fried or Charlie Christ it's 127 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: very unlikely they can defeat the Santus. He is very popular, 128 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: has got some great ads on TV. And Marco Rubio 129 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: is a strong candidate as well. You know, he was 130 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: damaged a bit after running for president, but he put 131 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: his nose to the grindstone. He became more supportful of Trump, 132 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 1: and his popularity among Republicans has bounced right back. Val 133 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:49,239 Speaker 1: Demis is running against him. Ran a very smart commercial 134 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: showing herself as the former police chief is tough on crime. 135 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: It works for a little while, but Rubio quickly countered, 136 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: which is critical. As you know, Newton, this business, you 137 00:07:57,800 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: cannot be attacked and wait week to respond. Marco Rubio 138 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: did not. I don't expect Florida to be a particularly 139 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: difficult state this year for the Republicans. De Santis is 140 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: running a magnificent campaign, and Rubio responded very quickly to 141 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 1: the attacks against him. I just don't think Florida is 142 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:20,239 Speaker 1: on the map for discussion, although I think the national 143 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 1: media will try to create that, as we all expected. No, 144 00:08:24,960 --> 00:08:27,679 Speaker 1: but I don't expect anything but a win for probably 145 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: De Santis as well as Rubio. It's been amazing to 146 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: me having lived through the whole process of Florida is 147 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:38,439 Speaker 1: largely a democratic state and then gradually a competitive state. 148 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: The number of races, including De Santis four years ago 149 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 1: for governor and all of Rick Scott's races, the number 150 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: of races where we managed to win by twenty or 151 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: thirty thousand votes out of five or six million, to me, 152 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: is astonishing. You could say Bush two thousand was a 153 00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: similar example that somehow the Republican Party is stronger than 154 00:09:00,840 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, and of course now it actually has 155 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,080 Speaker 1: a much bigger reservoir of votes. You know, the other 156 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: state you're very familiar with that has really trended our 157 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 1: way significantly is Ohio, and I think that's tied in 158 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:18,160 Speaker 1: part to the degree to which people who did not 159 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:21,320 Speaker 1: go to four years of college are dramatically shifting to 160 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: the Republican party. So we're actually becoming the blue collar 161 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: party in virtue all of America. But in addition, oil 162 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 1: and gas in eastern Ohio became very big business with fracking. 163 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:35,079 Speaker 1: I just saw a pole I guess it was Kaheli 164 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 1: Trufalgar that now shows jd vance ahead by three or 165 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: four points. And I always thought that the gravitational pool 166 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 1: of Ohio would elect Vance, just because it's now trending 167 00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:51,239 Speaker 1: so intensely Republican, much like Florida, except even more advanced. 168 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 1: I mean, I remember in Bush's re election in two 169 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: thousand and four, it was the final precincts in Ohio 170 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,719 Speaker 1: that decided whether or not he win reelection, And at 171 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: that time Ohio was a very competitive state, and now 172 00:10:05,040 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 1: I think it's less and less. So do you have 173 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:10,920 Speaker 1: that same feeling? Oh? Absolutely, You've described it perfectly what's 174 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: taken place in Ohio. What the media tries to do there, 175 00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: or some of the posters they try to say, well, 176 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 1: they're the suburban areas and Cincinnati and Cleveland and Columbus 177 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,680 Speaker 1: probably so that are more sophisticated and they don't like 178 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:28,000 Speaker 1: a Trump style or a Trump endors candidate. And then 179 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 1: of course we get returns from Hamilton County in Cincinnati 180 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: and other places, and we find out that in fact, 181 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: they do like a Trump endorsed candidate. So I don't 182 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: expect jatie Vance to have a big problem. There's a 183 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: media push to say, well, his opponent is coming on strong, 184 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 1: that he's more attractive to suburban voters. But my senses 185 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: that really is not taking place. I think we'll see 186 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 1: Evans win Ohio well, and his opponent as a Democratic 187 00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:56,080 Speaker 1: congressman who has consistently voted with Biden and Pelosi. So 188 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,640 Speaker 1: he's carrying a pretty big load into it. You know, 189 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:00,599 Speaker 1: I mean your home state, do you serve in the 190 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: legislature and where are you? No politics with great intimacy? 191 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 1: How do you read herschel Walker and the general And 192 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: of course, to his credit, Governor Kemp responded to the challenge. 193 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: I thought shockingly big primary to be renominated and now 194 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:21,679 Speaker 1: seems to be pretty consistently ahead of his Democratic component. 195 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: How do you read the evolution of Georgia. This year, 196 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,840 Speaker 1: demographics worked the opposite in Georgia. George as a state 197 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 1: where the demographics are continually moving in the direction of 198 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: demographics that would support Democratic candidates, and that has been 199 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,480 Speaker 1: going on for quite some time. Atlanta has become a 200 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,120 Speaker 1: massive metropolitan area in a very diverse metropolitan area. It 201 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 1: doesn't mean a Republican can't win. It means that a 202 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 1: Republican has to really do a balancing act. They have 203 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 1: to pull about sixty one to sixty three percent of 204 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: the white vote, They have to be able to receive 205 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: at least eight to ten percent of the African American vote, 206 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,839 Speaker 1: they need to split the Hispanic vote, and then they 207 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: to pray that all of this comes together in a victory. 208 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 1: Kemp had a great primary, no doubt about it. Georgia, 209 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,920 Speaker 1: by the way, as you know, dude, you ran many 210 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: times as an open state where you don't register by party, 211 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: so it's harder for us to see if the Democrats 212 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: played in some of these races or not. But regardless 213 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: of that, Kemp had a strong race. There has been 214 00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 1: this movement amongst some political leaders as well as some 215 00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: media recently to suggest a candidates such as Walker in Georgia, 216 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: Oz and Pennsylvania are weak candidates. What I find amazing 217 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:36,599 Speaker 1: about that is that these are people in both cases 218 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: who have had tremendous careers. I mean, you look at 219 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,080 Speaker 1: Fetterman and I can't make a judgment one way or another. 220 00:12:43,480 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: Fetterman's career is really not anything that seems to be 221 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,840 Speaker 1: very striking. Yet you have Oz, who has had a 222 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: phenomenal career both as a businessman, as an on air talent, 223 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: and as a very successful surgeon. You have herschel Walker, 224 00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: who is a tremendous athlete that went on to be 225 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 1: an excellent businessman. I find it rather odd. Are we 226 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: supposed to believe that the only good candidates are candidates 227 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: who have served in legislatures or who have been in 228 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: the office all their lives, have not done anything in 229 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:14,719 Speaker 1: the real world. Well, the question, if you're a left 230 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: wing Democrat, that is what you believe, Yes, you're not 231 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: tainted by that free enterprise stuff. Well, and to be fair, 232 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: there are plenty of Republicans who seem to believe that 233 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: as well. The truth is, I think they underestimate the 234 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: quality of these candidates and the ability for these candidates 235 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 1: to survive a very rough August and come back in 236 00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:35,320 Speaker 1: Walker's case. By the way, Georgia is one of the 237 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: two states in the country that holds a runoff in 238 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 1: the general election. If you don't get fifty percent of 239 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: the vote plus one, you go to that runoff, which 240 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 1: of course we saw two years ago with the two 241 00:13:45,160 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: Senate seats. I think Herschel Walker has a great chance 242 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 1: of being in a runoff, and once you get an 243 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:54,559 Speaker 1: incumbent into a runoff, then the incumbent is not likely 244 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: to win in Georgia. So that's something everyone needs to 245 00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: keep in mind about the Walker race. It's not a 246 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: matter of whether Walker beats Warnock in the first round, 247 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 1: is can't he make it to the national championship, which 248 00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: would be in January. Although I have to say my 249 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,400 Speaker 1: preference is for winning in November, just because it makes 250 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: it so much easier. Every candidate is yes, although I 251 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 1: just think it's going to be difficult, So make what's 252 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,080 Speaker 1: your sense In Nevada, where I think we have a 253 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: remarkably good candidate and Adam Laxall, he is running against 254 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,720 Speaker 1: an incumbent. Well in Nevada, the latest Trafalgar poll, which 255 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,200 Speaker 1: I think probably is the more accurate one shows Laxoll thehead. 256 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 1: A couple of the polls that were taken earlier by 257 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 1: other organizations showed him losing. I think that's going to 258 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:40,600 Speaker 1: be a close race. As you know, Nute, one of 259 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: the big deciding points out in Nevada is that giant 260 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: union that controls so much of the vote of people 261 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: who work in hotels and in the entertainment business in 262 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: Las Vegas. My sense is that the individuals who work 263 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: in those hotels, work in those casinos, who used to 264 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,440 Speaker 1: be a guaranteed vote for the Democrats, we're very frustrated 265 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 1: by being shut down over and over again, locked in 266 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 1: their house, not able to earn money, and fear that 267 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: that's going to happen again. So that's a unique situation 268 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,000 Speaker 1: that I think Laxalt needs to be on top of, 269 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: and I think that's why Nevada is a real possibility 270 00:15:15,520 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: for the Republicans this go around. Yeah, it is interesting 271 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: to me. We went back and preparing for this conversation, 272 00:15:21,520 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 1: and if you look at Larry Sabato's work, or the 273 00:15:23,920 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: Cook Political Report or five thirty eight, in almost every 274 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: one of these races. Now, despite all the August talk 275 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: about a democratic surge. In almost all of these races, 276 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: they're toss ups, and they're not saying that they're going 277 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: to be Democrats elected automatically. In Nevada, course, in Cortez Mastow, 278 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 1: a Democratic US senator, I have a hunch she's going 279 00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: to get beat. The other interesting place that seems to 280 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 1: me is Arizona, where I have always thought Mark Kelly 281 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: was vulnerable because he doesn't actually vote like an Arizona Now, 282 00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: Blake Masters came out of a very tough primary. They've 283 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 1: got to finish putting the party back together. Well, what 284 00:15:58,280 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: do you sense about Arizona. I think you're absolutely right. 285 00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: They've got to get the party put back together first. 286 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: That's why in some of these races, such as with 287 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: os and Pennsylvania, for example, you did have a big 288 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:14,160 Speaker 1: division among the Republican electorate, and it's taking time for 289 00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: Republicans to come back over and support the candidate who 290 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: emerged as the nominee. I think that's the issue in 291 00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 1: this case. The other thing about Arizona of all the 292 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: major competitive races, that this particular candidate seems to be 293 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: polling the worst at this time. And as I mentioned earlier, 294 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: new I believe that the immigration issue. If you look 295 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: at the immigration position of the public, if that is 296 00:16:40,480 --> 00:16:45,360 Speaker 1: reinforced with daily examples of people coming over the border 297 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: and talking about what impact that has on people in Arizona, 298 00:16:50,120 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: I believe that that race can become very competitive because 299 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: some of the polling that I've seen from Scott rasmuston 300 00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 1: others show that once you start focusing on the bad 301 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:13,600 Speaker 1: side of that, that race can become much closer as well. Hi, 302 00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:16,480 Speaker 1: this is newt We have serious decisions to make about 303 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: the future of our country. Americans must confront big government socialism, 304 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:25,280 Speaker 1: which has taken over the modern Democratic Party, big business, news, media, entertainment, 305 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:29,639 Speaker 1: and academia. My new best selling book, Defeating Big Government 306 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 1: Socialism Saving America's Future, offers strategies and insights for everyday 307 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:38,439 Speaker 1: citizens to save America's future and ensure it remains the 308 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: greatest nation on Earth. Here's a special offer for my 309 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: podcast listeners. You can order an autograph copy of my 310 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 1: new book, Defeating Big Government Socialism right now at gingwishtree 311 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash book and we'll ship it directly 312 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:55,160 Speaker 1: to you. Don't miss out on this special offer. It's 313 00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: only available for a limited time. Go to gingwishtree sixty 314 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: dot com slash book to order your copy. Now order 315 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 1: it today at English sixty dot com slash book. When 316 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 1: I talked with Scott Rasmus, and he makes the point 317 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 1: that when you look at the so called undecided, they're 318 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,679 Speaker 1: amazingly anti Biden, and they are very unhappy with the 319 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 1: direction of the country and with the economy. And he 320 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:27,800 Speaker 1: thinks that the undecideds in the end break overwhelmingly Republican. 321 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:31,160 Speaker 1: And do you have any gut feeling for that. I do. 322 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: One of the ways I can tell you that I 323 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: agree with Scott, who have a lot of respect for 324 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: we're good friends, is that as I look at Independence 325 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 1: in most of these races, while they've drifted perhaps a 326 00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: little bit to the Democrats a few of them in 327 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: the recent weeks, the independence have generally been one of 328 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 1: the strongest groups that I had a very unfavorable view 329 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 1: of Joe Biden. So I have to believe that as 330 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: if we get focused in these races, those of the 331 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: people tend to be undecided or Independence will move towards 332 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,280 Speaker 1: the Republicans. But let me just note newt during this 333 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,480 Speaker 1: onslaught that the media created starting with abortion then the 334 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: unfortunate shootings that took place in the response to that, 335 00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: then the Inflation Reduction Act. The media began to create 336 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: this concept that the Democrats were on the rise, Biden 337 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 1: was on the rise, quote had the best week of 338 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: his entire presidency a few weeks ago. And then the 339 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: stock market began to respond a bit because inflation did 340 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: not grow at the rate they might have expected for 341 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,879 Speaker 1: a month, which I find to be probably an anomaly, 342 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 1: but that's the time period that some independence sort of 343 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,879 Speaker 1: drifted into the undecided column. I think, as this stuff 344 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: all comes into focus once again, and if the Republicans 345 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 1: do their job, and I cannot stress enough, I'm not 346 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,240 Speaker 1: thrilled with the quality of ads that I see right now. 347 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: I think a lot of them talk about big spending 348 00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,560 Speaker 1: and inflation, and a lot of people understand that, but 349 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,800 Speaker 1: not every voter can make the quantum leap and logic 350 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: between inflation and then recession and then what happens to them. 351 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: And they certainly can't make that leap and logic between 352 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: that and big government spending because a lot of folks 353 00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: just haven't taken the courses in economics and they don't 354 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 1: need to. So I think the Republicans need to be 355 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 1: a little more explicit in setting out what the problems are. 356 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,160 Speaker 1: I think they need to be a little more focused 357 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 1: on issues like critical race theory, which have a lot 358 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 1: of people upset. Other issues that related to the unfairness 359 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 1: of women in sports and some of the rules that 360 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: are being placed in that area. Is surging crime in 361 00:20:38,119 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: both big cities and suburbs. Those are issues that will 362 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: move the votes, and I don't see enough ads focusing 363 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: on that. You know, the Republican go to has always 364 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: been it's the economy stupid. Well, sometimes when you see 365 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: as many crazy things as have occurred in this country 366 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,160 Speaker 1: in the last two years, it's not just the economy. 367 00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: It's the cultural war as well that these independents were 368 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,440 Speaker 1: reacting to. But Republicans have to be able to bring 369 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 1: that home. I think Youngcan would not have won if 370 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 1: he had not embraced parents' rights and been on the 371 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,960 Speaker 1: side of parents in the fight over the left wing teachers' 372 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 1: union effort to propagandize their children. I think in that 373 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:19,640 Speaker 1: sense it was absolutely a key to putting together his 374 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,880 Speaker 1: majority coalition, and I think if you combine that with 375 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:27,639 Speaker 1: the crime issue, which I think is getting bigger very fast. 376 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,119 Speaker 1: It's beginning to really sink into people. You turn on 377 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 1: the TV news and there's a flash mob looting at 378 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 1: seven eleven. I mean, you're watching the end of civilized 379 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 1: order in front of your very eyes. And then you 380 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: have Canada's Fetterman's a good example. Fetterman served on the 381 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 1: parole board as Lieutenant governor, was the only person on 382 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: that parole board to vote to release a killer who 383 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,119 Speaker 1: had killed a young man for the purpose of getting 384 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:54,560 Speaker 1: money to buy more heroin at a time when he 385 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 1: was under the influence of drugs, and Fetterman won to 386 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 1: put him back on the street. Well, if you're a 387 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,480 Speaker 1: person who's aware of how bad Philadelphia has gotten, and 388 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 1: this is true across the whole country, I mean almost 389 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: every major city now is out of control. Atlanta, as 390 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 1: you may know, according to Channel eleven in Atlanta, they actually, 391 00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: per capita, have a higher crime rate than Chicago. And 392 00:22:16,320 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 1: you know, I think people are genuinely worried about their 393 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 1: own personal safety and they watch these liberal politicians who 394 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:26,359 Speaker 1: seem to be more pro criminal than they are innocent persons. 395 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: So I agree with you. I think crime and the 396 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 1: culture issues are dramatically bigger part of the next two 397 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 1: months than probably most Republican consultants believe. I'll use immigration 398 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:41,840 Speaker 1: as an example. So immigration is a big issue when 399 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,919 Speaker 1: people actually see what's taking place on the border. But 400 00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,040 Speaker 1: what I post this question all the time. How many 401 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:52,200 Speaker 1: people who don't watch Fox News or Newsmax actually ever 402 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,320 Speaker 1: see the hordes of people coming across at the Texas border, 403 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:01,359 Speaker 1: the crisis down there, the people jammed in to areas 404 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:05,200 Speaker 1: once they get into this state, or even hear about 405 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 1: the fentonal problem that's massive as a result of it. 406 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,160 Speaker 1: And the answer is if you actually look and see 407 00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:14,960 Speaker 1: what the networks run, what the news speeds show to 408 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,879 Speaker 1: the average person with their iPhone as they're walking around 409 00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:21,000 Speaker 1: during the day, they never see this stuff. Again, I 410 00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: believe the Republican Party has a short period of time 411 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 1: to educate the public about what's going on in areas 412 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: such as crime, reminding them what's going on with regard 413 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,320 Speaker 1: that a lot of people in Atlanta don't even know 414 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 1: that stat that you just mentioned, nude, and also to 415 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: show them what's a curing at the border, because when 416 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:41,120 Speaker 1: you get into October, as you know, dude, the electorate 417 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:45,960 Speaker 1: becomes rather suspicious. If you suddenly start showing people coming 418 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:47,680 Speaker 1: over the border, they say, well, if that's been going 419 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 1: on for two years, how come I never saw it. 420 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 1: So this is the time period the Republicans have to 421 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: educate the public and the people who don't get to 422 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: see it because they don't watch the news stations that 423 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 1: you and I watch. And it's a very very tight 424 00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: window of opportunity to quote your old book. So part 425 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 1: of what I'm fascinated by is the year evolved. Is 426 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: there's suddenly this emergence of Democrats saying I just assumed 427 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: Joe Biden doesn't show up, And in fact, in a 428 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: couple of cases now Marcy Captor and Toledo, for example, 429 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,800 Speaker 1: who's a very senior veteran member of Congress, is now 430 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: running an ed talking about how she voted against Biden. 431 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,160 Speaker 1: Are you a little surprised at how rapidly he has 432 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: been decaying as a political property? Well? No, I think 433 00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 1: on Sean Hannity's show the very first week he was 434 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: sworn in, I said to Sean that at some point 435 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: the Democratic Party would turn on Biden. That if he 436 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 1: was his week in terms of his abilities and capabilities 437 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 1: and his programs because we saw the executive orders that 438 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,440 Speaker 1: he signed the first day, which just really shocks and 439 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: votes for every action in politics. As you know, Newt 440 00:24:56,640 --> 00:25:00,880 Speaker 1: there's a reaction, and the reaction is now hitting and popularity. 441 00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 1: While it got a little stronger a week ago, he's 442 00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: backed down again, and these candidates are now having to say, well, 443 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: look at Stacy Abrams. I mean, he came into Georgia 444 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 1: to talk about election reform, her issue, and Stacy at 445 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,480 Speaker 1: that time couldn't find time on her calendar to be 446 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,640 Speaker 1: seen with Joe Biden. So it's something that's occurred over 447 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: the last four or five months, growing and I think 448 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:25,600 Speaker 1: it will grow good more if the Republicans capture at 449 00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: least the House, because at that point they know a 450 00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: lot of issues about Joe Biden are going to be 451 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,199 Speaker 1: brought front and center. Because the House will didn't have 452 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,119 Speaker 1: the power of subpoena, those committees will, and you're going 453 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 1: to learn a lot more about what's been going on 454 00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: in the past, and I think the Democrats are going 455 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 1: to say, yikes, we have to do something about this, 456 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 1: and they're beginning to do that right now. That's why 457 00:25:45,920 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: you're seeing ads like that. What does your take on 458 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 1: Trump's role in all of this, Well, it's very complex. 459 00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: First of all, it's very clear that the raid on 460 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: Trump did nothing but galvanize his supporters and quite frankly, 461 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are on the fence about 462 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: him for two reasons. One the obvious and that is 463 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:19,720 Speaker 1: it seemed to be a great overreach. But the second 464 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 1: thing that I think people were missing is that once 465 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,320 Speaker 1: this took place, there were plenty of polls and plenty 466 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,640 Speaker 1: of commentators who said, well, now Trump is the nominee. 467 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,520 Speaker 1: If he chooses to run, no one is going to 468 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:35,359 Speaker 1: be able to defeat him. So when Republicans and independents 469 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: who might want to get Biden out start thinking, well, 470 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,360 Speaker 1: Trump is their only alternative, they start taking a better 471 00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:43,560 Speaker 1: view of him because they realize he is the life 472 00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: raft that they need. Now that could all change, because 473 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 1: certainly the law enforcement groups and the like in these 474 00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: various states are trying as hard as they can to 475 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: find a way to make the man either agreed and 476 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 1: never run again, or to put him behind bars. But 477 00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: right now all they've done is in bold in him, 478 00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:04,239 Speaker 1: make him stronger, and make him appear to be the 479 00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:08,160 Speaker 1: only alternative that anyone who doesn't want the Biden administration 480 00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 1: can vote for. I was very struck with two things 481 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,199 Speaker 1: in that sense. One is the elites cannot get in 482 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,919 Speaker 1: their head that the reason Trump is still standing is 483 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:25,440 Speaker 1: that for at least half the country, they loathe the elites, 484 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: and so no matter what you're telling them about Trump, 485 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: they were basic regressions. Yeah, but he's not you. And 486 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 1: I think that's what happened to Liz Shaney in Wyoming. 487 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 1: Seventy one percent of her state voted against her. That 488 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 1: is about as close to a repudiation as you can get. 489 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:43,840 Speaker 1: And I think it was kind of a sense of 490 00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: I don't care what you're telling us about this committee. 491 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 1: You're clearly now them, and we are just overwhelmingly opposed 492 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 1: to them. I mean, do you have that same sense 493 00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 1: that a great deal of Trump isn't about Trumpet's about 494 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,399 Speaker 1: the American people being fed up with the deep state 495 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 1: and with woke and with the whole notion of big 496 00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 1: government socialism, that when all of it comes together, people 497 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:07,680 Speaker 1: just say, no, I don't care what you're gonna tell 498 00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,520 Speaker 1: me about him, He's not you. Yes, in back, dude, 499 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:14,280 Speaker 1: I think that's the stronger motivating factor in this race 500 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,960 Speaker 1: this year than even the economy, as much as people 501 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 1: are suffering from inflation and higher gas prices. I think 502 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: it's the entire combination of issues that you just described 503 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: in the elitism that they most react to and that 504 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,080 Speaker 1: they're most upset about it. Now there is a small 505 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 1: sliver of voters that they're critical, and this is most interesting. 506 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: The only group of Republicans who Republican candidate seems to 507 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 1: have a problem with if they're a Trump associated or 508 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: if they're backed by Trump. Our voters sixty five and older, 509 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: which used to be the group that a conservative candidate 510 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:54,080 Speaker 1: could always count on. What's taking place there is the following. 511 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,840 Speaker 1: When the pandemic hit, this group was convinced they needed 512 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: to mask up and stay in their house forever. They 513 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,280 Speaker 1: were led to believe that Trump didn't believe in what 514 00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:07,680 Speaker 1: was needed to save them from the pandemic. That then 515 00:29:07,760 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 1: bled over to a concept with self image. These people 516 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,520 Speaker 1: at that age have a certain self image. Many of 517 00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: them are college educated, they are successful, they've already made 518 00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 1: their money, and they don't believe that these candidates, because 519 00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:24,880 Speaker 1: they're more of the general populace and perhaps not of 520 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 1: the elite that they would fit in their social setting, 521 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: their country club, where they hang out. The people they're with, 522 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: people vote their self image. I've said that all my life, 523 00:29:34,360 --> 00:29:37,880 Speaker 1: and so with that group it takes a lot more 524 00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:43,320 Speaker 1: to explain why the view they have is not really irrelevant, 525 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: and I think the Republicans have to focus on that 526 00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 1: age group a little bit more. As a matter of fact, 527 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,360 Speaker 1: Robert Kayley's pole out of Pennsylvania, the number one thing 528 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: it showed is that Oz is having his greatest difficulty 529 00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,840 Speaker 1: with voters who are sixty five and older. So once 530 00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 1: again I taught the too cool school crowd, except they're 531 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,560 Speaker 1: not a school wage they're the seniors, and that's something 532 00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: has to be dealt with because that's a segment of 533 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:12,520 Speaker 1: elitism where elitism is still a little bit popular. Let 534 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:16,480 Speaker 1: me ask you one other I think really big unknown 535 00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 1: what I guess economists would call a black swan, something 536 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:24,040 Speaker 1: which could change the whole game. I personally, as a historian, 537 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:29,120 Speaker 1: believe that the deep State and the Biden administration and 538 00:30:29,280 --> 00:30:34,480 Speaker 1: the big government socialists collectively intend to indict Trump in 539 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,080 Speaker 1: the district of Columbia where he got five point six 540 00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,320 Speaker 1: percent of the vote, and intend to try him in 541 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 1: front of a jury guaranteed the convict him of something. 542 00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,960 Speaker 1: They're not sure what it is yet, but they're sure 543 00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 1: they want him convicted. What do you think will be 544 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 1: the country's reaction after the thirty FBI agents went into 545 00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,680 Speaker 1: Marrow Lago and the reaction to that. What do you 546 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,040 Speaker 1: think will be the country's reaction if, in fact, the 547 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 1: Biden Justice Department indicts somebody who has been the most 548 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,240 Speaker 1: dominant person in Republican nominating process this year. I mean, 549 00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:12,239 Speaker 1: I've never seen anybody in American history as successful as 550 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 1: Trump at getting people nominated across the board, so obviously 551 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,000 Speaker 1: his reach is very, very deep. How do you think 552 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 1: the country will react if that person is now indicted 553 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,120 Speaker 1: by his political opponents. Well, the reaction probably will fall 554 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 1: along the same lines as anything that has to do 555 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 1: with Donald Trump. You have a solid group that can't 556 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:35,080 Speaker 1: stand in you, a solid group that love him. You 557 00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:37,920 Speaker 1: have independence to sort of bounce back and forth. I 558 00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:41,280 Speaker 1: think what it will do is it will increase the 559 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:46,920 Speaker 1: intensity and determination of those who support him not only 560 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 1: to vote, but to persuade other people to vote in 561 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: an effort not only to save him, but to prove 562 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 1: the elite wrong. You know, I think the raid. Originally 563 00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 1: I pulled it, the raid was sort of a split 564 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,680 Speaker 1: fifty fifty on the country how people felt about it. 565 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,280 Speaker 1: But as we got deeper into it and more days 566 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: went by, the intensity level of people who supported Trump 567 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: or who thought that it was wrong and their determination 568 00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 1: to vote was about seven to eight points above that 569 00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 1: of anyone who didn't like Trump or thought the raid was. Okay, 570 00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,840 Speaker 1: take an indictment. That's going to take it to a 571 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:24,680 Speaker 1: whole new level. So the game has to be to 572 00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:27,280 Speaker 1: be honest with you, not just to indict him, but 573 00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 1: to tie him up so the man can't run for president. 574 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,720 Speaker 1: And I think that's probably the goal. Yeah, although I 575 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 1: think it may be impossible under the Constitution because the 576 00:32:35,800 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 1: Constitution has two requirements thirty five years of age in 577 00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 1: a native born American. There is no other constitutional limitation. 578 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 1: You can be serving time in jail. If you have 579 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 1: the votes and you're thirty five years old and you 580 00:32:49,040 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 1: are native born American, you're president. There's no congressional prohibition 581 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 1: can override the Constitution. I went to some constitutional guys 582 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,120 Speaker 1: and said, would you explain to me. You're absolutely right, 583 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,600 Speaker 1: Although I think the Democrats as you know, they try 584 00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:07,200 Speaker 1: to rely on federal codes and they feel like that 585 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: they can tie those up and then they can go 586 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 1: litigate that before the courts of appeal and even ultimately 587 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court. I think probably do you and I 588 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 1: both agree that they indict Donald Trump, that only gets 589 00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:20,480 Speaker 1: resolved one of two ways, either through an election or 590 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:23,320 Speaker 1: a decision about the Supreme Court. And I think that 591 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:27,520 Speaker 1: for the life of me, Matt, I can't understand the 592 00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,600 Speaker 1: kind of sleep walking into a disaster that we see 593 00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 1: with both the way the FBI behaves, and we see 594 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,440 Speaker 1: with the Attorney General and with the White House. The 595 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 1: stuff they've done starting in twenty fifteen at the FBI 596 00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,720 Speaker 1: has been literally almost like a death march of an 597 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,920 Speaker 1: institution trying to prove how corrupt it is. I don't 598 00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 1: know if it's just pure arrogance that they don't get 599 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,840 Speaker 1: any feedback loops or what. It's certainly going to be 600 00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: a major factor, I think, and how angry the American 601 00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,960 Speaker 1: people get as they not just watch it with Trump, 602 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,959 Speaker 1: but they think about how normal Americans are now treated 603 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 1: by their government. And I think that's why the vote 604 00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,319 Speaker 1: for the eighty seven thousand IRS agents may be the 605 00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:13,239 Speaker 1: most expensive single vote in the Senate races because they 606 00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 1: could have voted for more border patrol agents. They could 607 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 1: have voted for people to worry about murderers and rapists 608 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 1: and drug dealers, but instead they voted for people who 609 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:27,000 Speaker 1: are going to come after normal, everyday Americans. I want 610 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 1: to thank you for joining me. I hope we have 611 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 1: a chance to talk somewhere between now and election day. 612 00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 1: As you know, I watch your polling very closely and 613 00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 1: I rely on your insights and your judgment. I'm really 614 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:41,520 Speaker 1: really delighted that you could spend some time and talk 615 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,320 Speaker 1: with us about the Senate races and about what's happening 616 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 1: with polling as we approached the election day on Tuesday 617 00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 1: in November eight. So thank you Matt very much. Absolutely, 618 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,080 Speaker 1: you started my career and I owe it all the use. 619 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:58,279 Speaker 1: I'm happy to be a part of it. Thank you 620 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,880 Speaker 1: to my guest Matt Towry. And learn more about the 621 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 1: road to the midterms and the US Center races on 622 00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,720 Speaker 1: our showpage at newtsworld dot com. News World is produced 623 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,960 Speaker 1: by Gingwich three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is 624 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 1: Garnsey Sloan. Our producer is Rebecca Howe and our researcher 625 00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 1: is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was created 626 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 1: by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at Gingwidge 627 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,319 Speaker 1: three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 628 00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,360 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcast and both rate us with five 629 00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,919 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 630 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,000 Speaker 1: what it's all about. Right now, listeners of newts World 631 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,359 Speaker 1: can sign up for my three free weekly columns at 632 00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 1: Gingwich three sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. 633 00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 1: This is Newtsworld.