WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts What Will Happen This Year 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:12.559 Welcome to Tech Stuff, a production from iHeartRadio. Hey there, 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:16.040 and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, Jonathan Strickland. 0:00:16.079 --> 0:00:18.799 I'm an executive producer with iHeart Podcasts and how the 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:23.720 Tech are you? Happy New Year, everybody. Welcome to tech Stuff. 0:00:23.760 --> 0:00:28.080 Predicts twenty twenty four. Just so y'all know, I'm actually 0:00:28.120 --> 0:00:33.280 recording this on December twenty eighth, so I build that 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:35.600 in just in case anything I predict for twenty twenty 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.400 four already happened in the last couple of days of 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.159 twenty twenty three, and I thought, you know that it 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:43.640 had been years and years since I did the last 0:00:43.680 --> 0:00:47.120 one of these. Because these episodes are actually really hard 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.120 to do. Unlike a standard episode, there's not really anything 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:56.160 I can research before I start writing and then recording. 0:00:56.480 --> 0:00:59.280 I can have an idea about something that might happen 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:01.880 that I could do a lot research to determine is 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:05.840 it a plausible prediction or am I just shooting in 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:09.039 the dark. But that's about it. Plus I also have 0:01:09.120 --> 0:01:11.000 to revisit the episode at the end of the year 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:13.679 to see how well I made out with my predictions 0:01:13.720 --> 0:01:17.000 because I believe in accountability, So these episodes tend to 0:01:17.040 --> 0:01:21.679 be arduous. They're time consuming, they're frustrating because I don't 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:24.080 have a great track record, and I thought I had 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:27.400 not done one in many years because of how hard 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:29.400 they are. In my mind, it was like, man, it 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:32.160 must have been since like maybe twenty seventeen when I 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:34.200 did the last one of these. But then I look 0:01:34.240 --> 0:01:35.679 back in my archive and I saw I did a 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:38.560 prediction episode in twenty twenty one for the year of 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:42.640 twenty twenty two, which shows you how incredibly unreliable my 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:44.920 memory is, which also makes it hard to do a 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:49.000 predictions episode. It's why I say, like, maybe I predicted 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:51.760 something that already happened. Heck, maybe I predict something that 0:01:51.840 --> 0:01:53.880 happened like two years ago, because that's how bad my 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:58.440 memory is. But anyway, gather round the old coat while 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.280 he tells you about the future, and you wonder if 0:02:01.280 --> 0:02:04.160 maybe you could just quietly ship them off to a 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:08.000 home or something. Let's get started, now, why don't we 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:12.120 just jump on board with a prediction about x AKA, 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:17.200 the platform formerly known as Twitter. Now, I'm tempted to 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:19.839 say that twenty twenty four will be the year when 0:02:20.160 --> 0:02:24.239 x folds. The company has obviously been on the decline 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:27.000 since Elon Musk bought it, and it actually wasn't in 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.960 the best of shape before Musk bought it either, But 0:02:30.040 --> 0:02:33.960 with advertisers becoming increasingly gun shy around X due to 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:37.919 Musk's tendency to not only allow hate speech on the platform, 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:41.560 but also he occasionally promotes it himself, it's hard to 0:02:41.600 --> 0:02:44.640 imagine Elon and company finding a way to course correct. 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.160 On top of that, there are tons of issues mounting 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.639 for the company. One big one is that X as 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.200 a whole hasn't been so good about paying a lot 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:57.080 of the bills. Last year, we heard about vendors and 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:01.280 landlords bringing lawsuits against X because the company failed to 0:03:01.320 --> 0:03:05.240 pay what it owed. Current and former employees have also 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:08.280 brought lawsuits against the company arguing that it hasn't paid 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:13.440 out contractually obligated compensation and severance, so less money's coming 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:17.840 into the company due to boycotts from advertisers, and a 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.280 lot of parties are coming up saying you need to 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.239 pay your debts to us. It is not a very 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.520 good situation economically speaking. But I am not going to 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:31.119 predict that X will die in twenty twenty four for 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.080 a couple of reasons. One, while I personally disliked the 0:03:35.120 --> 0:03:39.040 platform and Elon Musk, I don't want to see any 0:03:39.040 --> 0:03:42.240 company go under. I don't want all the folks working 0:03:42.280 --> 0:03:45.800 at X to find themselves without a job. And two, 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:49.640 it's too easy of a prediction right. Plus, like Elon 0:03:49.760 --> 0:03:53.320 Musk has what appears to be kind of an obsession 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:57.520 with this concept of turning X into the everything app, 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:00.240 and I don't think he's going to be willing to 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:04.680 give that up, even if it's costing money. So instead, 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.440 I'm going to predict that X actually gets its act 0:04:07.600 --> 0:04:11.640 together this year, that Elon Musk perhaps realizes that maybe 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:15.160 he should back away from being such an active and 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:19.200 visible part of X and maybe let the actual CEO, 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:23.080 Linda Yakarino, work on repairing the relationship the company has 0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.680 with brands and advertisers. Maybe they will actually determine that 0:04:27.839 --> 0:04:29.920 X needs to commit to paying the amount it o's 0:04:30.000 --> 0:04:33.080 to all those parties, and that slowly it starts to 0:04:33.120 --> 0:04:36.560 set itself on the right path. I don't think X 0:04:36.640 --> 0:04:40.039 is going to be in a remarkably better position by 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.880 the end of twenty twenty four, but I'm predicting that 0:04:42.920 --> 0:04:45.680 I'll be pointed the right way. For once, do I 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:49.920 believe in my own prediction. If I'm being honest, I don't. 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.039 I really think X is just going to be a 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:57.200 bigger mess. But I'm going to predict the opposite because 0:04:57.240 --> 0:05:00.440 if it pans out, won't it be a ma that 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:03.560 I was calling a shot like this that'd be phenomenal. 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:05.640 And if it doesn't work out, then it essentially just 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:09.640 meets everybody's expectations. So here's to looking forward to a 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.600 new and kinder X by the end of this year. 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:17.080 Maybe I suppose the next one should have actually been 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:21.640 my first prediction. Considering all the fuss around AI in 0:05:21.680 --> 0:05:24.599 twenty twenty three, I think twenty twenty four we're going 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:27.279 to see a lot more AI integration. There was a 0:05:27.279 --> 0:05:30.080 lot of talk about it last year, but we didn't 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.640 really see a lot of actual integrations and implementations of AI. 0:05:34.720 --> 0:05:36.840 We saw a lot of hype around it. So I 0:05:36.880 --> 0:05:39.680 think that a lot of those integrations we're going to 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:41.359 see this year are actually going to turn out to 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:45.000 be more trouble than what they're worth, because I think 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:47.320 a lot of business leaders are going to look at 0:05:47.360 --> 0:05:51.039 AI as some sort of cure all for business challenges. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.640 Now that's not to say that every AI implementation will 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:58.160 be bad. I think we'll hear about some really creative 0:05:58.279 --> 0:06:02.279 and effective ways to incorporate A into business, whether it's 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:06.600 for customer facing experiences or behind the scenes where it's 0:06:06.760 --> 0:06:11.240 largely gone unnoticed by anyone outside the organization. But with 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.760 all the hype around artificial intelligence paired with a gap 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:18.159 in understanding as to what it can and cannot do, 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:21.200 I suspect we're going to see something similar to when 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.800 companies first heard about the concept of the metaverse. They're 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.320 going to rush in because they're going to be afraid 0:06:27.320 --> 0:06:31.640 of missing out. FOMO will be serious, They're not really 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:35.600 going to have grips on what AI is good for, 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:39.359 and we're ultimately going to see a situation similar to 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:41.760 what we saw with NFTs a couple of years back. 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.080 There's going to be a bubble, and that bubble will 0:06:44.080 --> 0:06:47.560 then eventually collapse, perhaps before the end of twenty twenty four. 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.440 I actually think this is a shame, because I do 0:06:50.480 --> 0:06:52.599 think there are ways that AI can make a positive 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:56.920 change for work. Those changes don't necessarily lead to layoffs 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:01.039 or perhaps saddling some poor human employee with the job 0:07:01.080 --> 0:07:03.240 of double checking to make sure the AI didn't make 0:07:03.279 --> 0:07:06.320 some sort of dumb mistake or invent something that doesn't 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:09.400 exist that would eventually tank the company. And if there 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:12.120 is a bubble, and if it does burst, I think 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:15.320 that's going to set back the AI field in general, 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:17.800 not just generative AI, although that's where a lot of 0:07:17.800 --> 0:07:20.560 the focus has been in the last year, but for 0:07:20.680 --> 0:07:24.120 AI across the board, because we've seen similar things like 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:28.040 that happen with other technologies. We've seen it with blockchain, 0:07:28.480 --> 0:07:31.679 we've seen it with virtual reality a couple of times actually, 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:33.920 and we'll talk more about mixed reality a little bit 0:07:33.960 --> 0:07:37.280 later in this Predictions episode. And I think it's there's 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:38.840 a good chance we're going to see it with AI. 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:42.440 And again it's not that AI is bad or that 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:47.280 there's no place for it, but that the hype around 0:07:47.280 --> 0:07:51.800 it and the expectation around it has a large gap 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:56.840 between what is an actual good implementation of it, and 0:07:57.320 --> 0:07:59.960 I think particularly we're going to see that in generative AI. 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:03.440 In fact, we started seeing it in twenty twenty three, 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.200 but I think twenty twenty four is the year where 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:08.320 we'll really see generative AI put through the paces and 0:08:08.680 --> 0:08:12.200 in at least several areas it's going to come up short, 0:08:12.760 --> 0:08:15.400 or it's going to cause headaches that could have been 0:08:15.440 --> 0:08:18.560 avoided if the AI had not been implemented in the 0:08:18.600 --> 0:08:21.200 first place. On a related note, I think we're going 0:08:21.280 --> 0:08:24.360 to see a lot more legislators and regulators all around 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:29.680 the world try to tackle AI. However, I don't think 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.800 we're going to get very many meaningful laws or regulations 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.120 out of it. Perhaps this is because I have become 0:08:35.240 --> 0:08:38.160 cynical when it comes to lawmakers wrapping their heads around 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.960 a technology and then trying to draft legislation, or it's 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.439 possible that I feel this way because there are influential 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:49.840 people in the AI space, for example Open AIS on 0:08:49.920 --> 0:08:53.480 again off against CEO Sam Altman, who are taking an 0:08:53.480 --> 0:08:59.120 aggressive role in trying to shape these regulations. When the 0:08:59.200 --> 0:09:01.920 parties that are going to be governed by regulations are 0:09:01.960 --> 0:09:05.360 taking an active role in forming the regulations, you should 0:09:05.440 --> 0:09:08.640 expect that they have an agenda and they're trying to 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:13.480 have the regulations meet that agenda. So my worry is 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:16.520 that we're going to see regulations that perhaps serve the 0:09:16.559 --> 0:09:20.720 interests of particular parties like open a Eye, while simultaneously 0:09:20.760 --> 0:09:26.840 holding back competition like a startup. Maybe it's also because 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:29.800 I see a lot of politicians use technology more as 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:33.800 a way to promote that they have a certain ideology. 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:37.720 You know, think of the various politicians who point at 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:42.280 efforts to think of the children when it comes to 0:09:42.720 --> 0:09:47.280 like taking an approach to objectionable material online. Right, if 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:50.960 you look closely at the legislation, it almost never addresses 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:55.239 any of the root problems. Instead, it's like patching symptoms. 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.000 And sometimes they don't even patch the symptoms, so you 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:04.040 end up with rules that don't address the actual problem 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.560 and don't do anything useful, and it just makes things 0:10:07.679 --> 0:10:12.080 more muddy. In some cases, lawmakers go on and on 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:15.400 about a problem, but they don't even draft anything. They 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:18.079 just use the problem again as sort of a political 0:10:18.200 --> 0:10:24.280 stepping point to try and signify to potential voters. Hey, 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:27.880 this is what I stand for, and the perceived problem 0:10:28.040 --> 0:10:30.640 is just a target, right, It's not anything that they're 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.520 actually going to do anything about. The last few years 0:10:33.600 --> 0:10:36.440 have perhaps taken a lot of my optimism with them. 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:40.959 So maybe I am being just incredibly pessimistic and cynical, 0:10:41.000 --> 0:10:44.120 but this is how it seems to play out to me. Anyway, 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:48.240 we may get a few definitive rules in twenty twenty 0:10:48.240 --> 0:10:51.280 four regarding AI, similar to how a judge in the 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:54.520 US deemed that works authored by AI are not eligible 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:56.960 for copyright protection. But I think there's going to be 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:00.920 very specific for particular use cases. I don't think we're 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:08.080 necessarily going to see comprehensive, effective legislation or regulations around 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:12.240 AI not in twenty twenty four. On a related note, 0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:15.400 because twenty twenty four is an election year here in 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.400 the United States, and because we've seen in recent years 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:22.280 arise in attempts to influence voters, I suspect we're going 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:26.719 to see an awful lot of AI assisted attempts to mislead, misinform, 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:30.520 and deceive US citizens. I think deep fakes will play 0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:34.400 a big part, whether it's video or audio or whatever 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.840 it may be, in a way to try and sway 0:11:37.960 --> 0:11:41.120 voters from one point of view to another or to 0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:46.600 reinforce certain ideas. I think AI drafted misinformation campaigns will 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.040 be a big part of this too, And in turn, 0:11:49.120 --> 0:11:51.960 this is going to prompt the US government to pressure 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:56.520 the social platforms to identify and remove misinformation quickly and accurately. 0:11:57.120 --> 0:12:00.600 But again, this doesn't actually address the underlying problem, right, 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:04.200 because even if you are putting pressure on the social platforms, 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.960 the parties that are actually generating the misinformation are still 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.640 active and they're still going to be flooding any available 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:15.680 channel with that misinformation. So again, it's not addressing the 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.120 underlying issue, although I don't even know how you would 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.160 go about doing that, but the point being that it's 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:24.560 a little reactive, it's not proactive, and it doesn't solve 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.360 the problem. It just shifts the problem to a different party, 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:31.280 that being the platforms that serve as the launching ground 0:12:31.320 --> 0:12:36.000 for these misinformation campaigns. And I don't think it's going 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:37.760 to mean that we're going to see less of it. 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:40.440 I think one consequence of this is we'll see even 0:12:40.440 --> 0:12:43.880 more opposition to TikTok in particular, not that I think 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.439 TikTok necessarily deserves that treatment, but we're already seeing a 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:51.640 growing belief that the platform purposefully directs users to specific 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.440 videos to push an agenda. Various investigations by journalists have 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.160 shown that there's very little evidence of this, that TikTok 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.480 is more focused on serving up content that will keep 0:13:01.520 --> 0:13:04.880 a user on TikTok longer, and that it doesn't really 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:09.280 care what the messaging of that content is as long 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:11.720 as it's not breaking the law, in which case TikTok 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:14.280 wants to remove it so that they don't get in trouble. 0:13:14.520 --> 0:13:18.120 If someone stays on TikTok longer because of misinformation, and 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:22.160 that misinformation has a particular like political ideology associated with it, 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.880 TikTok will just keep serving up that content to that 0:13:25.920 --> 0:13:29.400 particular user, not because it's trying to radicalize that person, 0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:33.280 but because TikTok benefits from folks staying on TikTok longer. 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.040 But this is a system that bad actors can gain. 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:39.359 Right Meanwhile, lawmakers look at TikTok as being the problem 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.079 rather than those who are creating the actual content. So 0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:44.120 I think we're going to see a lot more political 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:47.559 posturing about how TikTok is destroying the United States and 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.080 should be banned. And to be clear, I am not 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:52.400 a fan of TikTok, but I really feel like the 0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:55.280 concern is directed at the wrong place here. I will 0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:58.559 say that I expect there to be increased rhetoric around 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:01.200 banning TikTok here in the United States, but we're not 0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.240 actually going to see that happen at least not on 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:06.000 a national level. I think it'll be used more as 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:07.880 a political tool for folks who are running in the 0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:11.280 election rather than as an actual policy. So I predict 0:14:11.280 --> 0:14:14.120 that by the end of twenty twenty four, TikTok will 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:16.079 still be a thing and folks in the US will 0:14:16.080 --> 0:14:19.080 still be able to access it legally. Okay, I've got 0:14:19.320 --> 0:14:21.600 several more predictions to go through before we get to those. 0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:34.680 Let's take a quick break to think our sponsors. Okay, 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:37.080 Next up, I'm gonna stick my neck out about an 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:42.120 Apple product. Now, historically, I have a terrible record for 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:45.600 this because I famously dismissed the iPad back in the 0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:48.240 day because I thought no one wanted a tablet form 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:52.360 factor computer system. Tablet computers had been around for years 0:14:52.400 --> 0:14:55.320 before the iPad came out. Also, I thought the iPad 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.280 was a really dumb name. It's funny because now it's 0:14:58.320 --> 0:14:59.720 been around for a while, but when it was first 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.040 and an lots of folks said, iPad, are you serious? 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:07.120 But then boom, the product comes out and like the iPhone, 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:10.280 it establishes itself in the hearts of consumers and Apple 0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:14.320 fanatics everywhere. Hecker Ment other companies could actually produce their 0:15:14.360 --> 0:15:18.840 own consumer tablets and sell those to the public as well. 0:15:18.880 --> 0:15:22.359 And previously you would only really come across tablet computers 0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:24.920 if you happen to work in certain environments, like say 0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:28.640 a hospital, But now you know, like kids are using 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:32.600 them as playthings. However, I really feel that the Apple 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:36.320 Vision Pro headset, which is an upcoming mixed reality device 0:15:36.360 --> 0:15:39.960 that leans heavily on the augmented reality part of the 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:42.720 mixed reality spectrum, I don't think it's going to be 0:15:42.720 --> 0:15:45.760 a big success, and that's partly because no one has 0:15:45.880 --> 0:15:50.680 managed to make a mixed reality viable consumer product that 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:54.360 is at like the high end of the tech spectrum. Obviously, 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.280 there are VR headsets that are popular among a subset 0:15:57.320 --> 0:16:00.280 of gamers, but even that, it's like a slow of 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:04.040 a slice of a demographic, right, it's not the general public. 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:08.760 General public has not adopted VR, but some gamers have. Now, 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.560 I'd say that there's no real precedent here, and that's 0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:14.320 why I think Apple's going to fail. However, I also 0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.840 have to face the fact that that's the same thing 0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.160 I said about tablet computers years ago, before the iPad 0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:22.640 had come out. But that's just one reason I think 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:24.600 it's going to fail. Another one is because the price 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:27.760 tag the Apple Vision Pro is going to retail for 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.440 three four hundred and ninety nine dollars thirty five hundred 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:34.560 dollars is incredibly expensive, and it puts the Vision Pro 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:38.160 outside the price range for most consumers. Now, I have 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.480 not experienced the Vision Pro personally. I have watched some 0:16:41.600 --> 0:16:44.560 videos and I've read some reviews that said the experience 0:16:44.640 --> 0:16:49.120 is really impressive, that Apple delivers a good experience, But 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.400 a lot of those reviews also raise concerns that there 0:16:51.440 --> 0:16:54.320 are a limited number of things you can do with 0:16:54.440 --> 0:16:58.560 the Apple Vision Pro, that some of those things probably 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.600 aren't practical at least not for say, like productivity purposes 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:05.000 for a full day of work, because you know the 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.639 battery won't last that long. And this also leads us 0:17:08.680 --> 0:17:11.160 to a chicken in the egg problem that a lot 0:17:11.200 --> 0:17:14.919 of new technology faces. Maybe instead, I should say the 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:20.080 hardware and the software problem. So launching any new computer, 0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:24.520 hardware or platform is a tricky thing, whether that's a 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:29.480 video game console, a brand new computer system, or an 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:37.000 augmented reality headset. And that's because the hardware needs good 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.680 software in order to be useful, and something that's valuable 0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.240 to consumers. Otherwise you end up with a very expensive 0:17:45.240 --> 0:17:49.000 piece of technology, like a pair of electronic goggles that 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:51.720 only is able to perform a limited number of tasks, 0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:56.800 and so consumers don't see the necessity of purchasing such 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.439 a thing, right Apart from the desire to have the newest, 0:17:59.480 --> 0:18:03.280 coolest techechnology, if the tech only does a limited number 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.600 of things, then you might say, well, how is this 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:09.720 worth the money? Meanwhile, software developers need to feel confident 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.440 that they're going to see a return on investment for 0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:17.280 their work for developing applications for the hardware platform. If 0:18:17.280 --> 0:18:19.480 you're a developer and you have the chance to build 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.840 apps for a platform that's brand new, but you also 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:26.360 see that the platform is not likely to receive widespread adoption, 0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:31.240 you might pull a fagin and review the situation, because 0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.359 it won't do you any good. If you spend hundreds 0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:38.320 of developer hours, spending significant amounts of money to develop 0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:41.440 something that only a few people will ever purchase or experience, 0:18:41.760 --> 0:18:44.119 you're not going to get a return on your investment. 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:47.800 That time and money could go to something else that 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:51.960 would actually reach more customers. So software developers really want 0:18:52.000 --> 0:18:55.280 a large user base. They want to have as many 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.840 users as possible on the hardware so that they're likely 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:03.160 to see success with their app. Meanwhile, the user base 0:19:03.640 --> 0:19:07.200 or potential user base wants a product to have lots 0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.320 of apps on it. They want a real good library 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.960 of applications, and that needs to be there for the 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:17.480 consumers to feel confident to purchase the product. So you 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:21.040 have potential users waiting for more features and functionality, and 0:19:21.080 --> 0:19:23.679 you have developers waiting for enough users to justify the 0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:27.520 work that is needed to build out those features in functionality, 0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:31.439 and it's a classic Chicken and the software problem or something. 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:34.760 I'm bad with metaphors. So I think that the Apple 0:19:34.880 --> 0:19:38.119 Vision pro will impress reviewers at least as far as 0:19:38.119 --> 0:19:41.720 the functionality goes when it launches, But I don't think 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:45.080 it's going to become an Apple flagship product like the iPhone. 0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:49.639 I'm not sure what, if anything, will ever make mixed 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:54.359 reality headsets a successful consumer item. I worry that the 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:58.919 form factor as it stands now, the bulky headset is 0:19:58.960 --> 0:20:02.399 a really big herd. Just like people didn't flock to 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:07.640 three D televisions despite multiple manufacturers really pushing three DTV 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:11.200 like a decade ago, because nobody really wanted to deal 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:13.760 with the hassle of having to wear special glasses just 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:17.280 to watch TV at home. So I predict that the 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:21.120 Apple Vision pro will be a commercial failure. I look 0:20:21.200 --> 0:20:23.480 forward to being gobsmacked at the end of twenty twenty 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:26.080 four when it becomes one of the top selling items 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:29.439 on the market or something. But I just I don't 0:20:29.520 --> 0:20:32.240 think the market is there. I think if Apple had 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:36.400 been able to actually create a pair of ar glasses 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:39.959 that look like eyeglasses, it would be a totally different story. 0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:43.960 But it just didn't happen. That form factor is so 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:47.280 small that cramming in all the components, you would need 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:51.320 to have a decent pair of AR glasses that one 0:20:52.000 --> 0:20:53.800 could do all the things he wanted to do, and 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.840 two had a battery that would support it for longer 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:01.160 than say, five minutes. It just was isn't realistic, And 0:21:01.520 --> 0:21:05.639 I just don't think consumers are eager to strap a 0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.400 big headset to their face for multiple hours a day, 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.080 even though it honestly could be super cool as far 0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:15.239 as the experience goes. I just don't think it's going 0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:17.600 to be there. Another thing I think is going to 0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:21.440 be big in twenty twenty four will be news about 0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:25.160 quantum computing. But that being said, a lot of stuff 0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:29.760 actually has to happen for quantum computers to transform from 0:21:29.800 --> 0:21:35.760 being impressive technological and scientific achievements to becoming a practical technology. 0:21:36.240 --> 0:21:40.919 Quantum computing has the potential to totally change the world. 0:21:41.040 --> 0:21:46.640 It could disrupt fundamental technologies like encryption methodologies, but that 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.800 only is true if the quantum computer is paired with 0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:55.200 the proper quantum algorithms and programs. Again, it's a hardware 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:58.240 software issue. It's not just that you have a device 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:01.840 that from a technical level could do these things. You 0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:06.560 have to actually build the programs or algorithms to achieve 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:10.200 those things on the hardware, and we haven't heard a 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:14.840 whole lot about that second category of developments in quantum computing. 0:22:14.840 --> 0:22:18.480 We've heard a lot about the incredible advancements companies have 0:22:18.560 --> 0:22:22.600 made in building larger and larger quantum computers, but not 0:22:22.720 --> 0:22:26.359 so much on the algorithm development side. So my guess 0:22:26.440 --> 0:22:29.440 is we're going to see more stories not just about 0:22:29.560 --> 0:22:33.439 impressive quantum computing hardware, but on the development of the 0:22:33.480 --> 0:22:36.440 software side of the equation. So again, it's one thing 0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.159 to make a quantum computer work. It's another thing to 0:22:39.160 --> 0:22:42.320 make it work for you, and I think that's really 0:22:42.359 --> 0:22:44.480 where we're going to see more of the story shift 0:22:44.640 --> 0:22:47.760 in this year, because otherwise you're just going to have 0:22:47.840 --> 0:22:49.920 a really powerful machine, but you have nothing to run 0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:52.760 on it. It's not very useful. And it's not like 0:22:52.840 --> 0:22:57.000 quantum computers can replace classical computers. They work on entirely 0:22:57.040 --> 0:23:02.240 different principles, at least from a a scale perspective, and 0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:05.800 quantum computers would be terrible at the things that classical 0:23:05.800 --> 0:23:09.440 computers are good at, just like classical computers would take 0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:12.840 ages to complete tasks that quantum computers, when paired with 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:16.600 a correct algorithm, could complete in a fraction of the time. 0:23:17.119 --> 0:23:19.679 So I think we're going to see the narrative shift 0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:22.280 a bit in twenty twenty four as we approach a 0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:27.560 future where quantum computers are actively doing incredible stuff. Now, 0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:31.199 some predictions are a bit too easy. For example, I 0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:33.120 could say we're going to see a lot more development 0:23:33.160 --> 0:23:37.360 around electric vehicles, but that's no brainer. With various regions 0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:41.040