Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along
Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day
Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts,
Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets
Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts,
Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot Com. Timothy O'Brien, Senior Columns from
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, is out with a beautifully crafted opinion today.
Speaker 1: It begins with a quotation of Frank Sinatra's My Way,
Speaker 1: and it continues on and essentially it says that the
Speaker 1: president barely seems to notice that the fishers he's opened
Speaker 1: are now swallowing him. Even Mitch McConnell happy to see
Speaker 1: the president impeached. Tim, thanks for joining. You could go
Speaker 1: so far as to say, especially Mitch McConnell is happy
Speaker 1: to see the president impeached because now he gets to
Speaker 1: get rid of President Trump and all the bad things
Speaker 1: that are associated with him. But a lot of the
Speaker 1: work that he wanted to see don got done during
Speaker 1: this last four years. Well, Vonny, the first thing I
Speaker 1: want to say is that I'm well aware of your
Speaker 1: own prodigious musical Ellen, I'm grateful that you gave a
Speaker 1: ad tip to Frank Sinatra um in this one on
Speaker 1: you know, on McConnell, I think this is a very
Speaker 1: interesting moment because they did get a lot of practical
Speaker 1: conservative policy out of Trump that they that um Republicans wanted,
Speaker 1: a tax cut, deregulation in a more conservative court. I
Speaker 1: think the question that's always hung over that processes was
Speaker 1: getting those things worth all of the other trade offs,
Speaker 1: the debased public dialogue, breaching the rule of law, and
Speaker 1: on and on and on, culminating in in an insurrection
Speaker 1: at the Capitol last week. And I think, you know,
Speaker 1: it's certainly a safetime for McConnell. See he's rethinking those
Speaker 1: things because he already got them trumps in his twilight
Speaker 1: days as president. Uh. Nonetheless, I think what you're seeing
Speaker 1: is this existential debate within the Republican Party about what
Speaker 1: does the party want to be and how should it
Speaker 1: represent conservatism and should it be classic um you know, uh,
Speaker 1: fiscal uh hawkishness, foreign policy hawkishness UM, or be a
Speaker 1: more of the cultural um uh moment that involves a
Speaker 1: lot of cultural division, and the party's really split between
Speaker 1: it's far right and what I would call them McConnell wing.
Speaker 1: And I think McConnell is now saying I wanted to
Speaker 1: be otherwise, and if that comes at the expense of
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's future, so be it. So, Tim, that's a
Speaker 1: real question. I think, as you mentioned, for a lot
Speaker 1: of Republican semi four million people voted for Trump, presumably
Speaker 1: a sizeable portion of those semi four million people were
Speaker 1: represented by the people that did, in fact march on
Speaker 1: the Capitol UH last week. Is that a wing of
Speaker 1: the party that is just lost to that, I guess
Speaker 1: the core Republican Party, or is that now the core
Speaker 1: Republican Party? Well, I think first and foremost, you know,
Speaker 1: I think when we when we talk about huge blocks
Speaker 1: of voters want to acts who a Republican or who
Speaker 1: are Democrat. If you go back to every UM UH
Speaker 1: presidential election through the nine twenties, most of them, except
Speaker 1: for one of Roosevelt's elections maybe two and Ronald Reagan
Speaker 1: in most of them were decided by very narrow margins.
Speaker 1: It was rare to have the country tilt overwhelmingly Republican
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Democrat. This last one UM was relatively narrow, but
Speaker 1: that's that's not out of keeping with where we've been.
Speaker 1: And I think the reality is that most Republicans and
Speaker 1: most Democrats vote by default. And I think we get
Speaker 1: into very dangerous area when we start to say, do
Speaker 1: do extreme members of the Republican Party actually represent the
Speaker 1: party itself? And does that mean the party has to
Speaker 1: accommodate them permanently? And and I would say, and I
Speaker 1: think that again, that's what I think that the party
Speaker 1: is trying to get armed around. You know, they let
Speaker 1: essentially with Trump the monster out of the cave, the
Speaker 1: monster turned around and ate the children. And now they've
Speaker 1: got to figure out what to do. And and I
Speaker 1: think the impeachment is part of that. I think where
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and and over, I think at least two
Speaker 1: dozen Republicans who were going to vote for impeachment are
Speaker 1: they're saying, no, it's time for a change. Well, And
Speaker 1: in fact, Joshua Green did a great thing, and he
Speaker 1: went back through the voting records of those that were
Speaker 1: identified storming the Capitol Hill the other day, as many
Speaker 1: as he could find, as many as he could get
Speaker 1: access to, and found that those who stormed the Capital
Speaker 1: have very erratic voting records, and some of them, you know,
Speaker 1: are not even registered Republican. So, Tim, what happens to
Speaker 1: the likes of Josh Holly, the likes of Ted Cruz. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, that's to be seen. I think it's it's
Speaker 1: very hard to find ways to punish senators outside of
Speaker 1: the voting booth. And and um, I think McConnell is
Speaker 1: is going to flex his muscles around here that might
Speaker 1: involve stripping them of committee assignments. Um. Their hometown newspapers
Speaker 1: have called on them to resign. Ron Johnson's as well. Um.
Speaker 1: I think that the dispiriting and damaging thing about Cruise
Speaker 1: and Holly in particulars they're both trained lawyers. Holly went
Speaker 1: to Yale, Crews went to Harvard. Holly was the attorney
Speaker 1: general of Missouri. These are men who have been trained
Speaker 1: to respect the law and the rule of law, and
Speaker 1: they were out fomenting an insurrection. Um uh it. You know,
Speaker 1: it remains to be seen what happens to them, But
Speaker 1: I suspect, at least until they're up for re election again,
Speaker 1: they may just skate along. Tim. I'm so glad we're
Speaker 1: chatting with you today because not just about the impeachment,
Speaker 1: but another piece of news. I know you're gonna have
Speaker 1: an interesting take on New York City pulling contracts with
Speaker 1: the Trump organization for you know, the ice rinks and
Speaker 1: the golf courses. What do you think the reaction is
Speaker 1: by the President and by the Trump organization here because
Speaker 1: these are near and dear to their hearts. I would
Speaker 1: think that that's a great question, Paul. It's not only
Speaker 1: near and dear to their hearts because it's in New York,
Speaker 1: it's also real money, and and real money is near
Speaker 1: and dear to his heart. He Uh, those properties in
Speaker 1: New York generated about seventeen million dollars a year in revenue.
Speaker 1: I suspect that's around five or so of the Trump
Speaker 1: organization's pre pandemic revenue. But a lot of the you know,
Speaker 1: the meat in the Trump Organization's revenue stream came from
Speaker 1: um urban commercial and residential real estate. That's all been
Speaker 1: very stressed. Whereas those city payments are steady cash flow.
Speaker 1: They can rely on them. And Trump is certainly in
Speaker 1: the short term possibly squeezed for funds because he has
Speaker 1: um over a billion dollars in debt on a portfolio
Speaker 1: that's worth in the neighborhood of two point seven to
Speaker 1: three billion dollars pre pandemic. But he's got four hundred
Speaker 1: billion coming to relatively soon, so he's gonna need cash.
Speaker 1: So not having access to cash in these New York
Speaker 1: properties is a problem, uh, monetary, financially, but it's also
Speaker 1: you know, it's a problem um almost spiritually emblematically, because
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, for as much as he disparages New York,
Speaker 1: prides himself on being a New Yorker, and this is
Speaker 1: yet another rejection of him by New York. Tim, we're
Speaker 1: really out of time. But you say at the end
Speaker 1: that as he self emolates, you know, he will move
Speaker 1: forward with few regrets, but with plenty of plans for payback.
Speaker 1: How do you envision that? To quote Joe Kennedy, don't
Speaker 1: get mad get even I think Donald Trump lives by
Speaker 1: that mantra. Hey, Tim, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting to see the post White House
Speaker 1: time for President Trump. Tim O'Briant, senior columnists for Bloomberg Opinion,
Speaker 1: joining us from Lovely Montclair, New Jersey. We appreciate him
Speaker 1: taking the time, and Vannie will be very interesting not
Speaker 1: only the next uh, you know, several days as it
Speaker 1: relates to the impeachment, but also again how President Trump, um,
Speaker 1: you know, what his post administration, post official office time
Speaker 1: will look like. Where will he be, what will he do?
Speaker 1: Phrase likely to get mad? Yeah, that's right, we'll see.
Speaker 1: We'll certainly follow up on that. This is Bloomberg. Well,
Speaker 1: a lot of investors last week, as they looked on
Speaker 1: in horror at the insurrection that took place at the
Speaker 1: Capitol on Wednesday, were pleasantly surprised, shocked. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: which way to really call it about how the market
Speaker 1: can trade up in the face of such uncertainty. Uh
Speaker 1: in Washington, d c our next guest, I've never received
Speaker 1: lots of phone calls from her clients asking the same.
Speaker 1: Let's check in with Christina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategies
Speaker 1: for Investco. They have one point three five trillion dollars
Speaker 1: assets under management. Christina, thanks so much for joining us again.
Speaker 1: You know, at this time of year, we would typically
Speaker 1: just say, hey, we'd love to get your year head view.
Speaker 1: And while we certainly want to get that, we want
Speaker 1: to get that in the context of what happened last week.
Speaker 1: Did you have to change your outlook at all based
Speaker 1: upon what we saw in Washington last week. No, we didn't,
Speaker 1: because markets looked through what happened. I mean, it was
Speaker 1: really amazing that stocks barely flinched because they're looking ahead
Speaker 1: to a lot more certainty than we had at any
Speaker 1: time during up until really the end of the year,
Speaker 1: and that is that we are going to have broad
Speaker 1: distribution of effective vaccines and that is going to be
Speaker 1: a game changer for the economy. In also, of course,
Speaker 1: the market doesn't month this to stop. The market wants
Speaker 1: us to keep going, and there are enough things underpinning
Speaker 1: it from you know, FED moves to as you say,
Speaker 1: the Biden administration potentially helping the market. But at some
Speaker 1: point a democratic administration is not so good for stocks, right, Christina,
Speaker 1: When do we see that, Well, that's when we start
Speaker 1: hearing the Biden administration talking about raising taxes and seeing
Speaker 1: that there's enough support in the House and in particular
Speaker 1: the Senate. Keep in mind that we did, of course
Speaker 1: see last week at the facto majority for Democrats in
Speaker 1: the Senate, but it is razor sin and that suggests
Speaker 1: that it is unlikely that any kind of very significant
Speaker 1: tax hikes would get past UM. Maybe we could see
Speaker 1: some small increases, particularly in the corporate tax, but we're
Speaker 1: not going back to pre Trump levels in terms of taxes. So, Christina,
Speaker 1: how about from the regulatory perspective, some are concerned that
Speaker 1: under a democratic administration and one that has albeit a
Speaker 1: razor thin margin in both the House and the Senate,
Speaker 1: that regulatory risk is something that investors may have to
Speaker 1: deal with more going forward. How do you view that? Definitely,
Speaker 1: regulatory risk is an issue for investors. There's no two
Speaker 1: ways about it. Um, But it's all about UM. What
Speaker 1: is the more important factors driving stocks higher and right now? Out?
Speaker 1: The potential for more fiscal stimulus, including the potential for
Speaker 1: UM a pretty significant infrastructure package, outweighs the regulatory risk.
Speaker 1: How many people in the service sector can we put
Speaker 1: to work in construction? Christina? And I'm not being funny.
Speaker 1: I'm suppose I'm trying to say, we can have all
Speaker 1: the construction and all the infrastructure projects in the world,
Speaker 1: but we still need the service sector to be able
Speaker 1: to get back to work. When do you see that happening?
Speaker 1: I think once we had that broad distribution of the vaccine.
Speaker 1: Keep in mind that this is such a different crisis
Speaker 1: than the global financial crisis, that recovery was anemic and
Speaker 1: was for much of its time a jobless recovery. I
Speaker 1: believe strongly that this is going to be a very
Speaker 1: different kind of recovery, that it is going to be
Speaker 1: more robust and more inclusive, so that when we do
Speaker 1: have that broad distribution of vaccines, were likely to see
Speaker 1: the service sector bounce back very very strongly. But I
Speaker 1: do want to push you ll not because what about
Speaker 1: small business. I mean a lot of service sector employees
Speaker 1: are employed by small restaurants and by you know, bars
Speaker 1: and other you know, cafeterias and things like that. Will
Speaker 1: they just be able to open doors again? Surely all
Speaker 1: their capital is gone. Well, certainly some have fallen victim.
Speaker 1: But having said that, we do reduce the odds um
Speaker 1: and we do reduce the level of economic scarring by
Speaker 1: offering more fiscal stimulus. Now, damage was certainly done because
Speaker 1: we went for months without any additional fiscal stimulus, but
Speaker 1: we did get a relatively small package at the end
Speaker 1: of the year, and we're likely to get more. So um,
Speaker 1: I do believe that that, yes, there has been damage
Speaker 1: done to the services sector. But there are some restaurants
Speaker 1: and bars that will be able to reopen and there
Speaker 1: will be new ones coming uh, and so I do
Speaker 1: expect a very significant bounce back in services. Christina. On
Speaker 1: the equity side, you know, how are you thinking about
Speaker 1: UM this rotation trade that's been working so well in
Speaker 1: the markets over the last four or five months, UM
Speaker 1: folks kind of getting into the more cyclical names, maybe
Speaker 1: some small cat names, anticipating kind of what I think
Speaker 1: you're looking for, which is a strong rebound in the
Speaker 1: economy beginning, you know, maybe the second third quarter of
Speaker 1: this year. How do you think about that rotation trade.
Speaker 1: I think that continues. I mean, we certainly have to
Speaker 1: expect that there are going to be difficult days in
Speaker 1: the first quarter, that we are going to get really
Speaker 1: negative news slow We're going to see statistics around the
Speaker 1: virus that are very very concerning UM. But I do
Speaker 1: believe that the stock market will look through that and
Speaker 1: look to that more robust economic recovery. So I think
Speaker 1: that the the rotation remains, but that doesn't mean we
Speaker 1: want to abandon all of the more secular growth defensive names.
Speaker 1: I do believe tech has legs even as we see
Speaker 1: that strong rotation continued towards the cyclicals and small cap
Speaker 1: What concerns you Christina? Right now? It doesn't seem like
Speaker 1: there's that much out there that does well. Certainly there
Speaker 1: are risks as we head into one. I think the
Speaker 1: first risk is around the virus and combating that. UM.
Speaker 1: We've already seen variants of COVID nineteen, including one where
Speaker 1: it's questionable to South African variant questionable whether or not
Speaker 1: current vaccines can protect against it. If we find that
Speaker 1: the current vaccines are unable to protect against it, that
Speaker 1: is a real, real problem. UM. I think that's a
Speaker 1: low probability event, but it is a very significant risk.
Speaker 1: The other big risk, which is also I think lower probability,
Speaker 1: is that we see monetary accommodation pull away too quickly.
Speaker 1: And I think certainly what we've heard from recently from
Speaker 1: beneficials suggest that's not going to happen. But those are
Speaker 1: two very significant risks. So how do you expect the
Speaker 1: Do you expect the FED to continue with that messaging
Speaker 1: of moderate rates for the first table future? I do.
Speaker 1: I don't think the FED will make the mistake of
Speaker 1: starting to talk about withdrawing accommodation, even if we do
Speaker 1: get more fiscal stimulus, even if we do see signs
Speaker 1: of inflation which have yet to really show. All right, Christina,
Speaker 1: thank you very much. That is Christina Hooper of Investco.
Speaker 1: Always absolutely thrilled to have your thoughts, and of course,
Speaker 1: so the market just continues on the pace we are
Speaker 1: hearing from Reuters. I do want to mention Paul, an
Speaker 1: aide to Reuter, is saying that the son of Gop
Speaker 1: is thinking about starting an impeachment trial Friday, that is
Speaker 1: two days from now. Yeah, that's the big news. The
Speaker 1: real question is timing for the Senate. We may be
Speaker 1: getting a little bit of not here. Yeah, exactly, much
Speaker 1: much sooner than we anticipated. Obviously, a lot of today's
Speaker 1: market action will be lead my Intel, which is the
Speaker 1: best performer in the SMPI. But there are other stocks
Speaker 1: hired to Dave Wilson, including some of the pharmaceuticals like Eli,
Speaker 1: Lily and Regeneral with with all the developments of the
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen front and other types of drugs where you've
Speaker 1: really seen uh drug maker's benefit at General Motors is
Speaker 1: another example. And remember those shares hit a record yesterday.
Speaker 1: Uh since the company returned to the public markets. In
Speaker 1: all this coming with enthusiasm for GM's electric vehicles, that
Speaker 1: clearly Intel is sort of the class of the field.
Speaker 1: You might say in today's trading. You know, it's funny,
Speaker 1: I was singing back to yesterday. We were talking about
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Sands and the death of their founder, Shell
Speaker 1: Sheldon Adelson, and you know what might happen because of that,
Speaker 1: and you didn't really see the stock move in response.
Speaker 1: Today it's a much more obvious example. You got CEO
Speaker 1: Bob Swan leaving the chip maker after just two years
Speaker 1: of running the company and on the heels of a
Speaker 1: push by activist investor Dan Lowe for some kind of change,
Speaker 1: possible break up ASTs say, oh, other strategic options. So
Speaker 1: you've got sort of a cause and effect arguably that
Speaker 1: people are seeing in that move, and you know the
Speaker 1: potential for things to happen down the line. And by
Speaker 1: the way, we should point out it's not just Intel
Speaker 1: moving because uh, you know, the chip maker is bringing
Speaker 1: in vm Ware's had Pat Gelsinger to take over from Swan,
Speaker 1: and vm Ware shares them down five point three percent
Speaker 1: as we speak, so you know it's being seen as
Speaker 1: a loss for vm Ware and a win for Intel
Speaker 1: this management change. Let's bring in an A. Rock Ran,
Speaker 1: a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been covering
Speaker 1: the tech space for decades. A Rod, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for joining us here. What does it mean for a
Speaker 1: tech giant like Intel to bring in, uh, someone like
Speaker 1: Pat Gelsinger from vm ware? What's it mean for Intel? So?
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be any interesting move, largely
Speaker 1: big because perhaps one of the strongest CEOs in the
Speaker 1: software world. You know, in our opinion right after you know,
Speaker 1: Microsoft CEO, I would rank Path as the number two
Speaker 1: in the software land. And frankly, you know, the whole
Speaker 1: world is moving towards more software define defined work no
Speaker 1: matter where it is, and Intel really needs some kind
Speaker 1: of a push behind them to you know, get their
Speaker 1: act together. So so I think it's a very sharp
Speaker 1: move for Intel and obviously a big loss for vm
Speaker 1: There who will vm We're fine to take over. So
Speaker 1: they've already announced their CFO as the internim CEO. UM.
Speaker 1: There are a few candidates. There is one particular candidate
Speaker 1: internally that I I really admire. He's their chief operating
Speaker 1: officer for customer operations called Sanja putin. UM. I think
Speaker 1: he could be one person that that could take over
Speaker 1: the real the helm. But you know, it's a it's
Speaker 1: a software company with a number of assets. UM. It
Speaker 1: could be somebody from outside, but you know, my my
Speaker 1: money would be on Sanjai. It's is this signify on
Speaker 1: a rug A push or a bigger push by Intel
Speaker 1: into the cloud? Do they feel like they have relating
Speaker 1: lag behind some of the technology peers. I think, Paul,
Speaker 1: it's more than that. It's just a matter of execution.
Speaker 1: It's a matter of getting their manufacturing problem fixed, getting
Speaker 1: their roadmap fixed. Um. And you know, if I go
Speaker 1: back and think about vm Ware just about four or
Speaker 1: five years ago, you know, it was in a similar
Speaker 1: spot that it was always thought of as a company
Speaker 1: with only on premise products and not doing well. And
Speaker 1: then packed with his genius, you know, came up with
Speaker 1: a couple of acquisitions that were very sharp. Then he um,
Speaker 1: you know, did a deal with Amazon Web Services, just
Speaker 1: a deal to move some of their workloads over to Amazon,
Speaker 1: and boyd what it did to the stock from that
Speaker 1: point onwards. The stock hasn't looked back. And that's been
Speaker 1: about five years. So I mean, this guy knows what
Speaker 1: he's doing when it comes to strategic partnerships as well
Speaker 1: as you know, relevant acquisitions. Deb Swan steer the company
Speaker 1: pretty well until now it doesn't look like see I mean,
Speaker 1: inters been interest and really poorly over the last few years.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you were to take away to push
Speaker 1: the seared or the stock price improvement in the past
Speaker 1: few days, it's not performed well. And you know, evaluation
Speaker 1: wise also it's it's it's it's fairly poor and it
Speaker 1: seems am d is you know, gaining share from them,
Speaker 1: So you know they really need to do something um,
Speaker 1: you know, quickly and and and I would say more
Speaker 1: aggressively to turn the things around. So, Dave, this is
Speaker 1: a big win for Dan Loeb and for you know,
Speaker 1: activist investors perhaps in general. What are we seeing in
Speaker 1: the world of activism, um, in the marketplace here, given
Speaker 1: what's happened uncertainly in the markets, Well, it's kind of
Speaker 1: been a constant over the last few years for for
Speaker 1: activists to step in and push for change. And it
Speaker 1: will be interesting to see how much Dan Lobe actually
Speaker 1: wins because you know, when he came out last month
Speaker 1: with this letter to Intel's chairman. He said that his
Speaker 1: hedge fund Third Point had significant steak. We don't know
Speaker 1: how big the steak is yet, and we may not
Speaker 1: know until mid February, when you know, institutional investors have
Speaker 1: to report on their whole things as of the end
Speaker 1: of December, so you know, that will be sort of
Speaker 1: another piece of the puzzle. How does Bob and his uh,
Speaker 1: you know, shareholders in essence benefit from what's happening at Intel,
Speaker 1: and you know, will they be making moves with the
Speaker 1: shares now that they're running up today? And it's interesting
Speaker 1: how he phrased it in his tweet. He said Swan
Speaker 1: as a contact and did the right thing for old
Speaker 1: steak over orders, stepping aside for Gil Singer, almost taking
Speaker 1: a little bit of credit. But it's not quite clear
Speaker 1: of what was happening behind the scenes. That will take
Speaker 1: a lot of investigation. Really, a Swan named CEO back
Speaker 1: in January of twenty nineteen. He had served as interim
Speaker 1: CEO for about six months before that. But certainly, as
Speaker 1: you both said, Intel shares are up more than nine
Speaker 1: percent today, VM, we're down about five. Well. One of
Speaker 1: the many things on President elect Biden's to do list
Speaker 1: is likely the challenge of repairing the relationship between the
Speaker 1: U S and many of its allies around the world.
Speaker 1: To get a sense of how that might be achieved,
Speaker 1: we welcome Bill Rhodes, President and CEO of William R.
Speaker 1: Rhodes Global Advisors, former chairman at City Bank, and Bill
Speaker 1: is also the author of Banker to the World, Leadership
Speaker 1: Lessons from the front Lines of Global Finance. Bill, thanks
Speaker 1: so much for joining us here and again, the to
Speaker 1: do list for President elect Biden must be, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: quite long. I'm wondering as it relates to China in particular,
Speaker 1: how do you think President LEC. Biden and his administration
Speaker 1: should approach China given what we've experienced over the last
Speaker 1: four years. Great to be on with you, Paul and Vanni.
Speaker 1: I think he puts a real priority on working with
Speaker 1: the Chinese, but in a very realistic way. He's talking
Speaker 1: about appointing a czar for Asia UH, and I think
Speaker 1: he recognizes that there's no quick fix to our trade
Speaker 1: situation and to some of the other problems Taiwan UH,
Speaker 1: the problems of Chinese penetration in the South China see
Speaker 1: A set could run on through them. UH, And of
Speaker 1: course the deficit in trade is a big problem. I
Speaker 1: think that he's going to move very cautiously. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's going to move rapidly to take off the
Speaker 1: three and seventy billion dollars of tariffs we've put on
Speaker 1: the Chinese. But I think he's willing to dialogue with
Speaker 1: him on things like climate change and perhaps some other issues.
Speaker 1: But he's going to move very cautiously on on China. Bill.
Speaker 1: I have to ask you about your reaction to events
Speaker 1: last week. Of course, you would have been around, you know,
Speaker 1: during so many previous administrations, growing right back as far
Speaker 1: as Nixon Ford even through the Vietnam War. What did
Speaker 1: you make of what you saw in Capitol Hill last week? Well,
Speaker 1: first of all, I've been inundated with calls from around
Speaker 1: the world asking me that same question, Monny, because people
Speaker 1: are really horrified with what happened there. Because although we've
Speaker 1: had our problems over the last few years, the great
Speaker 1: democracies in Europe and elsewhere, UH, places like Australia New
Speaker 1: Zealand always looked to us as a beacon of democracy, UH,
Speaker 1: in their in their way of doing business, and they
Speaker 1: couldn't believe what happened on Capitol Hill. Now I've been through,
Speaker 1: as you point out, Vietnam Watergate, and the United States
Speaker 1: UH had a real problem UH internally with its relationships
Speaker 1: and also how the view the view of the world
Speaker 1: was towards us. But we managed to work our way out,
Speaker 1: because we always do. I think we will again here
Speaker 1: what UH. It will not be easy or quick, but
Speaker 1: I think that Joe Biden will want to play the
Speaker 1: role at Jerry Ford did in trying to bring the
Speaker 1: country back together again. I think this whole process we're
Speaker 1: going through now of impeachment will probably go right through
Speaker 1: the Senate because my own feeling. I haven't spoken to him,
Speaker 1: but I think Mitch McConnell will not oppose it. He
Speaker 1: will go along with it because he's very concerned about
Speaker 1: the future of the Republican Party UH and what's happened
Speaker 1: with Trump hijacking it. So we are in for a
Speaker 1: difficult period of time. But I think Biden, with his
Speaker 1: relationships with the Republicans, including Mitch McConnell and others, I
Speaker 1: think he's probably the right person to be in the
Speaker 1: job at this time to heal us. Just as Jerry
Speaker 1: Ford was at the time of Watergate in Vietnam. So, Bill,
Speaker 1: there are a lot of obviously issues here domestically in
Speaker 1: terms of wounds that need to be healed that they
Speaker 1: became obviously those wounds became just most apparent last week.
Speaker 1: But there's also issues with our global allies. I mean,
Speaker 1: presumably president elected Biden will attempt to re engage with
Speaker 1: some of our core allies in Europe in Asia. To
Speaker 1: what extent do you think they're going to welcome us
Speaker 1: back with open arms given the last four years? Well,
Speaker 1: Europe has its own problems. You've seen Brexit, and there
Speaker 1: are differences right within the EU and the euro Zone.
Speaker 1: So I think they will welcome us in the sense
Speaker 1: of wanting to cooperate, but the agenda has changed somewhat.
Speaker 1: So I think what you have with with Biden as
Speaker 1: he has as his secretary when he's not been approved
Speaker 1: yet but is UH candidate for Secretary of State, Tony B.
Speaker 1: Lincoln is very pro European and believes in the Atlantic
Speaker 1: Alliance and actually was educated part of his life UH
Speaker 1: in Europe, and he always demonstrated in his you know,
Speaker 1: his previous role in the State Department and as an
Speaker 1: assistant to to then plays President Biden his interest in
Speaker 1: in doing that, and I think Biden also believes very
Speaker 1: much in the Atlantic Alliance. But the world is shifted
Speaker 1: and towards Asia, and I think we need to watch
Speaker 1: what the policies are going to be towards Asia, particularly
Speaker 1: on trade. UH. I would like to see them resurrect
Speaker 1: the Transpacific Partnership, which UH Trump left the first day
Speaker 1: in office, decided to to reject it, and the other
Speaker 1: nations UH in Asia went ahead with it on their own, Japan, Australia, others.
Speaker 1: I don't think that will happen anytime soon, but I
Speaker 1: think that's the type of spirit I think you're going
Speaker 1: to see out of this new administration you lead that
Speaker 1: they're going to go back to to push the efforts
Speaker 1: on climate change, green finance. UH, They're going to want
Speaker 1: to strength in the Atlantic Alliance. UH. They will be
Speaker 1: very prone job and they will want to re engage
Speaker 1: our allies in Asia much more so than the Trump administration.
Speaker 1: Bill Rhodes, you are sticking around. We have lots more
Speaker 1: to talk about, and we want to get into more
Speaker 1: detail regarding what you just said about Asia. That's Bill Rhodes,
Speaker 1: banker to the world and author by the way of
Speaker 1: a book of the same name, And really no matter
Speaker 1: what country you're in the world, you'll be able to
Speaker 1: get a local language translation of that book by Bill Rhodes.
Speaker 1: Just keep you updated. There is some procedureal votes going
Speaker 1: on in the House now before the debate on impeachment.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at
Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us
Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio