1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot Com. Timothy O'Brien, Senior Columns from 7 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,920 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, is out with a beautifully crafted opinion today. 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: It begins with a quotation of Frank Sinatra's My Way, 9 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 1: and it continues on and essentially it says that the 10 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: president barely seems to notice that the fishers he's opened 11 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 1: are now swallowing him. Even Mitch McConnell happy to see 12 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: the president impeached. Tim, thanks for joining. You could go 13 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 1: so far as to say, especially Mitch McConnell is happy 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: to see the president impeached because now he gets to 15 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 1: get rid of President Trump and all the bad things 16 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: that are associated with him. But a lot of the 17 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: work that he wanted to see don got done during 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: this last four years. Well, Vonny, the first thing I 19 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 1: want to say is that I'm well aware of your 20 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: own prodigious musical Ellen, I'm grateful that you gave a 21 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: ad tip to Frank Sinatra um in this one on 22 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: you know, on McConnell, I think this is a very 23 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: interesting moment because they did get a lot of practical 24 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: conservative policy out of Trump that they that um Republicans wanted, 25 00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: a tax cut, deregulation in a more conservative court. I 26 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: think the question that's always hung over that processes was 27 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: getting those things worth all of the other trade offs, 28 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:37,959 Speaker 1: the debased public dialogue, breaching the rule of law, and 29 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: on and on and on, culminating in in an insurrection 30 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 1: at the Capitol last week. And I think, you know, 31 00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: it's certainly a safetime for McConnell. See he's rethinking those 32 00:01:47,920 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: things because he already got them trumps in his twilight 33 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: days as president. Uh. Nonetheless, I think what you're seeing 34 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: is this existential debate within the Republican Party about what 35 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: does the party want to be and how should it 36 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: represent conservatism and should it be classic um you know, uh, 37 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: fiscal uh hawkishness, foreign policy hawkishness UM, or be a 38 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: more of the cultural um uh moment that involves a 39 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: lot of cultural division, and the party's really split between 40 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: it's far right and what I would call them McConnell wing. 41 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: And I think McConnell is now saying I wanted to 42 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: be otherwise, and if that comes at the expense of 43 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's future, so be it. So, Tim, that's a 44 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: real question. I think, as you mentioned, for a lot 45 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 1: of Republican semi four million people voted for Trump, presumably 46 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: a sizeable portion of those semi four million people were 47 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: represented by the people that did, in fact march on 48 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: the Capitol UH last week. Is that a wing of 49 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: the party that is just lost to that, I guess 50 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,239 Speaker 1: the core Republican Party, or is that now the core 51 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: Republican Party? Well, I think first and foremost, you know, 52 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 1: I think when we when we talk about huge blocks 53 00:03:03,120 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: of voters want to acts who a Republican or who 54 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: are Democrat. If you go back to every UM UH 55 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:14,680 Speaker 1: presidential election through the nine twenties, most of them, except 56 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,640 Speaker 1: for one of Roosevelt's elections maybe two and Ronald Reagan 57 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 1: in most of them were decided by very narrow margins. 58 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: It was rare to have the country tilt overwhelmingly Republican 59 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: overwhelmingly Democrat. This last one UM was relatively narrow, but 60 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: that's that's not out of keeping with where we've been. 61 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: And I think the reality is that most Republicans and 62 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: most Democrats vote by default. And I think we get 63 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: into very dangerous area when we start to say, do 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:48,400 Speaker 1: do extreme members of the Republican Party actually represent the 65 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 1: party itself? And does that mean the party has to 66 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: accommodate them permanently? And and I would say, and I 67 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: think that again, that's what I think that the party 68 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: is trying to get armed around. You know, they let 69 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: essentially with Trump the monster out of the cave, the 70 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 1: monster turned around and ate the children. And now they've 71 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: got to figure out what to do. And and I 72 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 1: think the impeachment is part of that. I think where 73 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell and and over, I think at least two 74 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: dozen Republicans who were going to vote for impeachment are 75 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 1: they're saying, no, it's time for a change. Well, And 76 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: in fact, Joshua Green did a great thing, and he 77 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 1: went back through the voting records of those that were 78 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 1: identified storming the Capitol Hill the other day, as many 79 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: as he could find, as many as he could get 80 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: access to, and found that those who stormed the Capital 81 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: have very erratic voting records, and some of them, you know, 82 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 1: are not even registered Republican. So, Tim, what happens to 83 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: the likes of Josh Holly, the likes of Ted Cruz. Uh, 84 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: you know, that's to be seen. I think it's it's 85 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 1: very hard to find ways to punish senators outside of 86 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: the voting booth. And and um, I think McConnell is 87 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 1: is going to flex his muscles around here that might 88 00:05:04,480 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: involve stripping them of committee assignments. Um. Their hometown newspapers 89 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: have called on them to resign. Ron Johnson's as well. Um. 90 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: I think that the dispiriting and damaging thing about Cruise 91 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: and Holly in particulars they're both trained lawyers. Holly went 92 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 1: to Yale, Crews went to Harvard. Holly was the attorney 93 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 1: general of Missouri. These are men who have been trained 94 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: to respect the law and the rule of law, and 95 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: they were out fomenting an insurrection. Um uh it. You know, 96 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: it remains to be seen what happens to them, But 97 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 1: I suspect, at least until they're up for re election again, 98 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: they may just skate along. Tim. I'm so glad we're 99 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: chatting with you today because not just about the impeachment, 100 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 1: but another piece of news. I know you're gonna have 101 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: an interesting take on New York City pulling contracts with 102 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: the Trump organization for you know, the ice rinks and 103 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: the golf courses. What do you think the reaction is 104 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 1: by the President and by the Trump organization here because 105 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: these are near and dear to their hearts. I would 106 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 1: think that that's a great question, Paul. It's not only 107 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: near and dear to their hearts because it's in New York, 108 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: it's also real money, and and real money is near 109 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: and dear to his heart. He Uh, those properties in 110 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: New York generated about seventeen million dollars a year in revenue. 111 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: I suspect that's around five or so of the Trump 112 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: organization's pre pandemic revenue. But a lot of the you know, 113 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: the meat in the Trump Organization's revenue stream came from 114 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: um urban commercial and residential real estate. That's all been 115 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,720 Speaker 1: very stressed. Whereas those city payments are steady cash flow. 116 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:39,279 Speaker 1: They can rely on them. And Trump is certainly in 117 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: the short term possibly squeezed for funds because he has 118 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 1: um over a billion dollars in debt on a portfolio 119 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: that's worth in the neighborhood of two point seven to 120 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 1: three billion dollars pre pandemic. But he's got four hundred 121 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: billion coming to relatively soon, so he's gonna need cash. 122 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: So not having access to cash in these New York 123 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:05,360 Speaker 1: properties is a problem, uh, monetary, financially, but it's also 124 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:10,880 Speaker 1: you know, it's a problem um almost spiritually emblematically, because 125 00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: Donald Trump, for as much as he disparages New York, 126 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: prides himself on being a New Yorker, and this is 127 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 1: yet another rejection of him by New York. Tim, we're 128 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 1: really out of time. But you say at the end 129 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: that as he self emolates, you know, he will move 130 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: forward with few regrets, but with plenty of plans for payback. 131 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: How do you envision that? To quote Joe Kennedy, don't 132 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: get mad get even I think Donald Trump lives by 133 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: that mantra. Hey, Tim, thanks so much for joining us. 134 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,600 Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting to see the post White House 135 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: time for President Trump. Tim O'Briant, senior columnists for Bloomberg Opinion, 136 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: joining us from Lovely Montclair, New Jersey. We appreciate him 137 00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 1: taking the time, and Vannie will be very interesting not 138 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: only the next uh, you know, several days as it 139 00:07:54,200 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: relates to the impeachment, but also again how President Trump, um, 140 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: you know, what his post administration, post official office time 141 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 1: will look like. Where will he be, what will he do? 142 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: Phrase likely to get mad? Yeah, that's right, we'll see. 143 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 1: We'll certainly follow up on that. This is Bloomberg. Well, 144 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 1: a lot of investors last week, as they looked on 145 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 1: in horror at the insurrection that took place at the 146 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: Capitol on Wednesday, were pleasantly surprised, shocked. I'm not sure 147 00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: which way to really call it about how the market 148 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: can trade up in the face of such uncertainty. Uh 149 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: in Washington, d c our next guest, I've never received 150 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: lots of phone calls from her clients asking the same. 151 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:42,000 Speaker 1: Let's check in with Christina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategies 152 00:08:42,080 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: for Investco. They have one point three five trillion dollars 153 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: assets under management. Christina, thanks so much for joining us again. 154 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: You know, at this time of year, we would typically 155 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: just say, hey, we'd love to get your year head view. 156 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 1: And while we certainly want to get that, we want 157 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 1: to get that in the context of what happened last week. 158 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 1: Did you have to change your outlook at all based 159 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 1: upon what we saw in Washington last week. No, we didn't, 160 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: because markets looked through what happened. I mean, it was 161 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: really amazing that stocks barely flinched because they're looking ahead 162 00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 1: to a lot more certainty than we had at any 163 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: time during up until really the end of the year, 164 00:09:21,960 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: and that is that we are going to have broad 165 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: distribution of effective vaccines and that is going to be 166 00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:32,199 Speaker 1: a game changer for the economy. In also, of course, 167 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: the market doesn't month this to stop. The market wants 168 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: us to keep going, and there are enough things underpinning 169 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,960 Speaker 1: it from you know, FED moves to as you say, 170 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: the Biden administration potentially helping the market. But at some 171 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: point a democratic administration is not so good for stocks, right, Christina, 172 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 1: When do we see that, Well, that's when we start 173 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: hearing the Biden administration talking about raising taxes and seeing 174 00:09:56,600 --> 00:10:00,839 Speaker 1: that there's enough support in the House and in particular 175 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: the Senate. Keep in mind that we did, of course 176 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 1: see last week at the facto majority for Democrats in 177 00:10:08,240 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 1: the Senate, but it is razor sin and that suggests 178 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 1: that it is unlikely that any kind of very significant 179 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:19,240 Speaker 1: tax hikes would get past UM. Maybe we could see 180 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: some small increases, particularly in the corporate tax, but we're 181 00:10:22,679 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: not going back to pre Trump levels in terms of taxes. So, Christina, 182 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: how about from the regulatory perspective, some are concerned that 183 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: under a democratic administration and one that has albeit a 184 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 1: razor thin margin in both the House and the Senate, 185 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: that regulatory risk is something that investors may have to 186 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 1: deal with more going forward. How do you view that? Definitely, 187 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: regulatory risk is an issue for investors. There's no two 188 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 1: ways about it. Um, But it's all about UM. What 189 00:10:54,880 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 1: is the more important factors driving stocks higher and right now? Out? 190 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: The potential for more fiscal stimulus, including the potential for 191 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: UM a pretty significant infrastructure package, outweighs the regulatory risk. 192 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: How many people in the service sector can we put 193 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: to work in construction? Christina? And I'm not being funny. 194 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: I'm suppose I'm trying to say, we can have all 195 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: the construction and all the infrastructure projects in the world, 196 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: but we still need the service sector to be able 197 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: to get back to work. When do you see that happening? 198 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: I think once we had that broad distribution of the vaccine. 199 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: Keep in mind that this is such a different crisis 200 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 1: than the global financial crisis, that recovery was anemic and 201 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: was for much of its time a jobless recovery. I 202 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:46,960 Speaker 1: believe strongly that this is going to be a very 203 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:49,280 Speaker 1: different kind of recovery, that it is going to be 204 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: more robust and more inclusive, so that when we do 205 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 1: have that broad distribution of vaccines, were likely to see 206 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: the service sector bounce back very very strongly. But I 207 00:11:59,880 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: do want to push you ll not because what about 208 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,959 Speaker 1: small business. I mean a lot of service sector employees 209 00:12:03,960 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 1: are employed by small restaurants and by you know, bars 210 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: and other you know, cafeterias and things like that. Will 211 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: they just be able to open doors again? Surely all 212 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:17,720 Speaker 1: their capital is gone. Well, certainly some have fallen victim. 213 00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: But having said that, we do reduce the odds um 214 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:25,200 Speaker 1: and we do reduce the level of economic scarring by 215 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: offering more fiscal stimulus. Now, damage was certainly done because 216 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: we went for months without any additional fiscal stimulus, but 217 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: we did get a relatively small package at the end 218 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,199 Speaker 1: of the year, and we're likely to get more. So um, 219 00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: I do believe that that, yes, there has been damage 220 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,479 Speaker 1: done to the services sector. But there are some restaurants 221 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 1: and bars that will be able to reopen and there 222 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 1: will be new ones coming uh, and so I do 223 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: expect a very significant bounce back in services. Christina. On 224 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 1: the equity side, you know, how are you thinking about 225 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 1: UM this rotation trade that's been working so well in 226 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: the markets over the last four or five months, UM 227 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 1: folks kind of getting into the more cyclical names, maybe 228 00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: some small cat names, anticipating kind of what I think 229 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: you're looking for, which is a strong rebound in the 230 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 1: economy beginning, you know, maybe the second third quarter of 231 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: this year. How do you think about that rotation trade. 232 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: I think that continues. I mean, we certainly have to 233 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 1: expect that there are going to be difficult days in 234 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 1: the first quarter, that we are going to get really 235 00:13:27,080 --> 00:13:31,320 Speaker 1: negative news slow We're going to see statistics around the 236 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 1: virus that are very very concerning UM. But I do 237 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 1: believe that the stock market will look through that and 238 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: look to that more robust economic recovery. So I think 239 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: that the the rotation remains, but that doesn't mean we 240 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: want to abandon all of the more secular growth defensive names. 241 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: I do believe tech has legs even as we see 242 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: that strong rotation continued towards the cyclicals and small cap 243 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: What concerns you Christina? Right now? It doesn't seem like 244 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 1: there's that much out there that does well. Certainly there 245 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 1: are risks as we head into one. I think the 246 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: first risk is around the virus and combating that. UM. 247 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 1: We've already seen variants of COVID nineteen, including one where 248 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: it's questionable to South African variant questionable whether or not 249 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:31,480 Speaker 1: current vaccines can protect against it. If we find that 250 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: the current vaccines are unable to protect against it, that 251 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: is a real, real problem. UM. I think that's a 252 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: low probability event, but it is a very significant risk. 253 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,359 Speaker 1: The other big risk, which is also I think lower probability, 254 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: is that we see monetary accommodation pull away too quickly. 255 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 1: And I think certainly what we've heard from recently from 256 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: beneficials suggest that's not going to happen. But those are 257 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: two very significant risks. So how do you expect the 258 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,000 Speaker 1: Do you expect the FED to continue with that messaging 259 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 1: of moderate rates for the first table future? I do. 260 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,480 Speaker 1: I don't think the FED will make the mistake of 261 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 1: starting to talk about withdrawing accommodation, even if we do 262 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: get more fiscal stimulus, even if we do see signs 263 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 1: of inflation which have yet to really show. All right, Christina, 264 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: thank you very much. That is Christina Hooper of Investco. 265 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: Always absolutely thrilled to have your thoughts, and of course, 266 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 1: so the market just continues on the pace we are 267 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,800 Speaker 1: hearing from Reuters. I do want to mention Paul, an 268 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: aide to Reuter, is saying that the son of Gop 269 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: is thinking about starting an impeachment trial Friday, that is 270 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,960 Speaker 1: two days from now. Yeah, that's the big news. The 271 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: real question is timing for the Senate. We may be 272 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,480 Speaker 1: getting a little bit of not here. Yeah, exactly, much 273 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: much sooner than we anticipated. Obviously, a lot of today's 274 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: market action will be lead my Intel, which is the 275 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 1: best performer in the SMPI. But there are other stocks 276 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: hired to Dave Wilson, including some of the pharmaceuticals like Eli, 277 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 1: Lily and Regeneral with with all the developments of the 278 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:09,200 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen front and other types of drugs where you've 279 00:16:09,240 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 1: really seen uh drug maker's benefit at General Motors is 280 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: another example. And remember those shares hit a record yesterday. 281 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: Uh since the company returned to the public markets. In 282 00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:26,760 Speaker 1: all this coming with enthusiasm for GM's electric vehicles, that 283 00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:30,640 Speaker 1: clearly Intel is sort of the class of the field. 284 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: You might say in today's trading. You know, it's funny, 285 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 1: I was singing back to yesterday. We were talking about 286 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: Las Vegas Sands and the death of their founder, Shell 287 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: Sheldon Adelson, and you know what might happen because of that, 288 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: and you didn't really see the stock move in response. 289 00:16:45,480 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: Today it's a much more obvious example. You got CEO 290 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: Bob Swan leaving the chip maker after just two years 291 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 1: of running the company and on the heels of a 292 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,840 Speaker 1: push by activist investor Dan Lowe for some kind of change, 293 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 1: possible break up ASTs say, oh, other strategic options. So 294 00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 1: you've got sort of a cause and effect arguably that 295 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,720 Speaker 1: people are seeing in that move, and you know the 296 00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,920 Speaker 1: potential for things to happen down the line. And by 297 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: the way, we should point out it's not just Intel 298 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: moving because uh, you know, the chip maker is bringing 299 00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 1: in vm Ware's had Pat Gelsinger to take over from Swan, 300 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: and vm Ware shares them down five point three percent 301 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: as we speak, so you know it's being seen as 302 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: a loss for vm Ware and a win for Intel 303 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 1: this management change. Let's bring in an A. Rock Ran, 304 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 1: a senior technology analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been covering 305 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 1: the tech space for decades. A Rod, thanks so much 306 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 1: for joining us here. What does it mean for a 307 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 1: tech giant like Intel to bring in, uh, someone like 308 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: Pat Gelsinger from vm ware? What's it mean for Intel? So? 309 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: I think it's going to be any interesting move, largely 310 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: big because perhaps one of the strongest CEOs in the 311 00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 1: software world. You know, in our opinion right after you know, 312 00:18:06,040 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 1: Microsoft CEO, I would rank Path as the number two 313 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 1: in the software land. And frankly, you know, the whole 314 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,920 Speaker 1: world is moving towards more software define defined work no 315 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: matter where it is, and Intel really needs some kind 316 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: of a push behind them to you know, get their 317 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: act together. So so I think it's a very sharp 318 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 1: move for Intel and obviously a big loss for vm 319 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:31,399 Speaker 1: There who will vm We're fine to take over. So 320 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: they've already announced their CFO as the internim CEO. UM. 321 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: There are a few candidates. There is one particular candidate 322 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: internally that I I really admire. He's their chief operating 323 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: officer for customer operations called Sanja putin. UM. I think 324 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 1: he could be one person that that could take over 325 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 1: the real the helm. But you know, it's a it's 326 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: a software company with a number of assets. UM. It 327 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 1: could be somebody from outside, but you know, my my 328 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,240 Speaker 1: money would be on Sanjai. It's is this signify on 329 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 1: a rug A push or a bigger push by Intel 330 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 1: into the cloud? Do they feel like they have relating 331 00:19:09,480 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 1: lag behind some of the technology peers. I think, Paul, 332 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 1: it's more than that. It's just a matter of execution. 333 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,440 Speaker 1: It's a matter of getting their manufacturing problem fixed, getting 334 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 1: their roadmap fixed. Um. And you know, if I go 335 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: back and think about vm Ware just about four or 336 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 1: five years ago, you know, it was in a similar 337 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 1: spot that it was always thought of as a company 338 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:33,399 Speaker 1: with only on premise products and not doing well. And 339 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: then packed with his genius, you know, came up with 340 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: a couple of acquisitions that were very sharp. Then he um, 341 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: you know, did a deal with Amazon Web Services, just 342 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,400 Speaker 1: a deal to move some of their workloads over to Amazon, 343 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: and boyd what it did to the stock from that 344 00:19:47,840 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: point onwards. The stock hasn't looked back. And that's been 345 00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,439 Speaker 1: about five years. So I mean, this guy knows what 346 00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,640 Speaker 1: he's doing when it comes to strategic partnerships as well 347 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: as you know, relevant acquisitions. Deb Swan steer the company 348 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 1: pretty well until now it doesn't look like see I mean, 349 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: inters been interest and really poorly over the last few years. 350 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 1: I mean, if you were to take away to push 351 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,680 Speaker 1: the seared or the stock price improvement in the past 352 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:18,200 Speaker 1: few days, it's not performed well. And you know, evaluation 353 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,320 Speaker 1: wise also it's it's it's it's fairly poor and it 354 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: seems am d is you know, gaining share from them, 355 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: So you know they really need to do something um, 356 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: you know, quickly and and and I would say more 357 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,359 Speaker 1: aggressively to turn the things around. So, Dave, this is 358 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,679 Speaker 1: a big win for Dan Loeb and for you know, 359 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: activist investors perhaps in general. What are we seeing in 360 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,840 Speaker 1: the world of activism, um, in the marketplace here, given 361 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: what's happened uncertainly in the markets, Well, it's kind of 362 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: been a constant over the last few years for for 363 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: activists to step in and push for change. And it 364 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: will be interesting to see how much Dan Lobe actually 365 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: wins because you know, when he came out last month 366 00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,920 Speaker 1: with this letter to Intel's chairman. He said that his 367 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: hedge fund Third Point had significant steak. We don't know 368 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: how big the steak is yet, and we may not 369 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 1: know until mid February, when you know, institutional investors have 370 00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:17,520 Speaker 1: to report on their whole things as of the end 371 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:20,560 Speaker 1: of December, so you know, that will be sort of 372 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:25,920 Speaker 1: another piece of the puzzle. How does Bob and his uh, 373 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 1: you know, shareholders in essence benefit from what's happening at Intel, 374 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 1: and you know, will they be making moves with the 375 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: shares now that they're running up today? And it's interesting 376 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: how he phrased it in his tweet. He said Swan 377 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: as a contact and did the right thing for old 378 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,200 Speaker 1: steak over orders, stepping aside for Gil Singer, almost taking 379 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:44,880 Speaker 1: a little bit of credit. But it's not quite clear 380 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,680 Speaker 1: of what was happening behind the scenes. That will take 381 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 1: a lot of investigation. Really, a Swan named CEO back 382 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,000 Speaker 1: in January of twenty nineteen. He had served as interim 383 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: CEO for about six months before that. But certainly, as 384 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: you both said, Intel shares are up more than nine 385 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:08,479 Speaker 1: percent today, VM, we're down about five. Well. One of 386 00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:11,960 Speaker 1: the many things on President elect Biden's to do list 387 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: is likely the challenge of repairing the relationship between the 388 00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 1: U S and many of its allies around the world. 389 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: To get a sense of how that might be achieved, 390 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: we welcome Bill Rhodes, President and CEO of William R. 391 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: Rhodes Global Advisors, former chairman at City Bank, and Bill 392 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 1: is also the author of Banker to the World, Leadership 393 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,680 Speaker 1: Lessons from the front Lines of Global Finance. Bill, thanks 394 00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: so much for joining us here and again, the to 395 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: do list for President elect Biden must be, uh, you know, 396 00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 1: quite long. I'm wondering as it relates to China in particular, 397 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,159 Speaker 1: how do you think President LEC. Biden and his administration 398 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 1: should approach China given what we've experienced over the last 399 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 1: four years. Great to be on with you, Paul and Vanni. 400 00:22:55,840 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 1: I think he puts a real priority on working with 401 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,840 Speaker 1: the Chinese, but in a very realistic way. He's talking 402 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: about appointing a czar for Asia UH, and I think 403 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 1: he recognizes that there's no quick fix to our trade 404 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: situation and to some of the other problems Taiwan UH, 405 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: the problems of Chinese penetration in the South China see 406 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 1: A set could run on through them. UH, And of 407 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: course the deficit in trade is a big problem. I 408 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 1: think that he's going to move very cautiously. I don't 409 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: think he's going to move rapidly to take off the 410 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 1: three and seventy billion dollars of tariffs we've put on 411 00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,080 Speaker 1: the Chinese. But I think he's willing to dialogue with 412 00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:46,200 Speaker 1: him on things like climate change and perhaps some other issues. 413 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: But he's going to move very cautiously on on China. Bill. 414 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: I have to ask you about your reaction to events 415 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: last week. Of course, you would have been around, you know, 416 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 1: during so many previous administrations, growing right back as far 417 00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: as Nixon Ford even through the Vietnam War. What did 418 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:08,359 Speaker 1: you make of what you saw in Capitol Hill last week? Well, 419 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 1: first of all, I've been inundated with calls from around 420 00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:15,359 Speaker 1: the world asking me that same question, Monny, because people 421 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 1: are really horrified with what happened there. Because although we've 422 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 1: had our problems over the last few years, the great 423 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:27,880 Speaker 1: democracies in Europe and elsewhere, UH, places like Australia New 424 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: Zealand always looked to us as a beacon of democracy, UH, 425 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,439 Speaker 1: in their in their way of doing business, and they 426 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: couldn't believe what happened on Capitol Hill. Now I've been through, 427 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:46,280 Speaker 1: as you point out, Vietnam Watergate, and the United States 428 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: UH had a real problem UH internally with its relationships 429 00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:53,399 Speaker 1: and also how the view the view of the world 430 00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: was towards us. But we managed to work our way out, 431 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: because we always do. I think we will again here 432 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,879 Speaker 1: what UH. It will not be easy or quick, but 433 00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,200 Speaker 1: I think that Joe Biden will want to play the 434 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,199 Speaker 1: role at Jerry Ford did in trying to bring the 435 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 1: country back together again. I think this whole process we're 436 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 1: going through now of impeachment will probably go right through 437 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: the Senate because my own feeling. I haven't spoken to him, 438 00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: but I think Mitch McConnell will not oppose it. He 439 00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 1: will go along with it because he's very concerned about 440 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,240 Speaker 1: the future of the Republican Party UH and what's happened 441 00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 1: with Trump hijacking it. So we are in for a 442 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,280 Speaker 1: difficult period of time. But I think Biden, with his 443 00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:42,959 Speaker 1: relationships with the Republicans, including Mitch McConnell and others, I 444 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 1: think he's probably the right person to be in the 445 00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,040 Speaker 1: job at this time to heal us. Just as Jerry 446 00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: Ford was at the time of Watergate in Vietnam. So, Bill, 447 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: there are a lot of obviously issues here domestically in 448 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 1: terms of wounds that need to be healed that they 449 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,400 Speaker 1: became obviously those wounds became just most apparent last week. 450 00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,760 Speaker 1: But there's also issues with our global allies. I mean, 451 00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:11,399 Speaker 1: presumably president elected Biden will attempt to re engage with 452 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 1: some of our core allies in Europe in Asia. To 453 00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,479 Speaker 1: what extent do you think they're going to welcome us 454 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:21,200 Speaker 1: back with open arms given the last four years? Well, 455 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: Europe has its own problems. You've seen Brexit, and there 456 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: are differences right within the EU and the euro Zone. 457 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: So I think they will welcome us in the sense 458 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:35,760 Speaker 1: of wanting to cooperate, but the agenda has changed somewhat. 459 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:40,000 Speaker 1: So I think what you have with with Biden as 460 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,399 Speaker 1: he has as his secretary when he's not been approved 461 00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: yet but is UH candidate for Secretary of State, Tony B. 462 00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 1: Lincoln is very pro European and believes in the Atlantic 463 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: Alliance and actually was educated part of his life UH 464 00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: in Europe, and he always demonstrated in his you know, 465 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,679 Speaker 1: his previous role in the State Department and as an 466 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 1: assistant to to then plays President Biden his interest in 467 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,120 Speaker 1: in doing that, and I think Biden also believes very 468 00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: much in the Atlantic Alliance. But the world is shifted 469 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: and towards Asia, and I think we need to watch 470 00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,199 Speaker 1: what the policies are going to be towards Asia, particularly 471 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 1: on trade. UH. I would like to see them resurrect 472 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,520 Speaker 1: the Transpacific Partnership, which UH Trump left the first day 473 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 1: in office, decided to to reject it, and the other 474 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:39,360 Speaker 1: nations UH in Asia went ahead with it on their own, Japan, Australia, others. 475 00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: I don't think that will happen anytime soon, but I 476 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,280 Speaker 1: think that's the type of spirit I think you're going 477 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 1: to see out of this new administration you lead that 478 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 1: they're going to go back to to push the efforts 479 00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: on climate change, green finance. UH, They're going to want 480 00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:59,159 Speaker 1: to strength in the Atlantic Alliance. UH. They will be 481 00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: very prone job and they will want to re engage 482 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 1: our allies in Asia much more so than the Trump administration. 483 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 1: Bill Rhodes, you are sticking around. We have lots more 484 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 1: to talk about, and we want to get into more 485 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: detail regarding what you just said about Asia. That's Bill Rhodes, 486 00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 1: banker to the world and author by the way of 487 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 1: a book of the same name, And really no matter 488 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 1: what country you're in the world, you'll be able to 489 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 1: get a local language translation of that book by Bill Rhodes. 490 00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:29,720 Speaker 1: Just keep you updated. There is some procedureal votes going 491 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:32,159 Speaker 1: on in the House now before the debate on impeachment. 492 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 493 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 494 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at 495 00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at 496 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,080 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us 497 00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:50,520 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio