WEBVTT - NFL Pro Week 7 Preview 0:00:00.150 --> 0:00:02.990 Welcome to the NFL pro week seven preview show. Thank 0:00:03.009 --> 0:00:05.920 you for listening on the I heart radio app, Apple podcasts, 0:00:06.120 --> 0:00:08.570 or wherever you get your podcasts. Be sure to follow 0:00:08.670 --> 0:00:11.830 and subscribe to the show. Sunday night football. Everybody watching this. 0:00:12.350 --> 0:00:13.370 Everybody including your mama. 0:00:13.390 --> 0:00:15.470 Touchdown 49ers. 0:00:15.550 --> 0:00:16.790 All right, everybody. 0:00:17.010 --> 0:00:19.770 Welcome back to NFL Pro. What a show we have 0:00:19.890 --> 0:00:21.329 for you today. We're going to preview some of the 0:00:21.370 --> 0:00:25.820 biggest matchups that we have here in week seven. We're 0:00:25.980 --> 0:00:28.320 going to take a look at which offensive and defensive 0:00:28.380 --> 0:00:32.380 coordinators are absolutely in their bag with creativity. Maybe to 0:00:32.400 --> 0:00:34.760 the point where they're getting some head coaching looks. We're 0:00:34.780 --> 0:00:36.580 going to talk about some movement in the front office. 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:40.220 GM already can before we get to halfway through the season. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:45.350 And NFL teams are taking penalties on purpose. We're going 0:00:45.390 --> 0:00:47.390 to explain so much of that and more. 0:00:47.409 --> 0:00:50.430 What a show. What a show. 0:00:51.190 --> 0:00:53.669 This is a fun slate this week. We have some 0:00:53.710 --> 0:00:57.310 premier matchups. We have some interesting scheme trends. To your point, 0:00:57.350 --> 0:01:01.470 we have an interesting... penalty trend that I never thought 0:01:01.590 --> 0:01:04.910 I would see where teams are benefiting from taking penalties. 0:01:05.010 --> 0:01:08.030 So we'll see what happens in the offseason about that. 0:01:08.090 --> 0:01:09.630 But yeah, a lot to talk about today. 0:01:10.209 --> 0:01:12.110 Everything you work for is for a moment like this. 0:01:12.130 --> 0:01:15.750 All the hard work is for moments like this. What 0:01:15.770 --> 0:01:18.089 we have to start off with here is a true 0:01:18.220 --> 0:01:20.520 premier matchup, not just for the week, but for the 0:01:20.580 --> 0:01:24.540 entire 2026 NFL season. And that is the Kansas City 0:01:24.620 --> 0:01:28.300 Chiefs versus the Seattle Seahawks. You're a man of culture, 0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:30.800 so I'm assuming that you have seen the movie Troy. 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.950 And there is a line in the movie where the 0:01:34.010 --> 0:01:38.170 king basically shouts over at the walls of Troy and says, 0:01:38.230 --> 0:01:42.590 Is this what you left me for? And Kenneth Walker 0:01:42.709 --> 0:01:45.030 is the subject here of that quote. 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:46.059 Kenneth of Troy? 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:51.919 Touchdown! Ken Walker III wins! 0:01:53.020 --> 0:01:56.340 Well, Helen of Troy and Kenneth Walker, both former Spartans, 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:57.960 so probably should start with him. 0:01:58.100 --> 0:01:59.340 Look at you. 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:00.000 I know. 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:01.540 I'm a nerd. What can I say? 0:02:01.860 --> 0:02:05.860 That was beautiful, my friend. 0:02:05.940 --> 0:02:06.360 Well done. 0:02:06.540 --> 0:02:06.940 Well done. 0:02:07.940 --> 0:02:10.690 What more can you say about his start to the year? 0:02:10.830 --> 0:02:14.390 If you're looking at most rushing yards per game in 0:02:14.430 --> 0:02:17.830 a season all time, he's on pace for a top 0:02:17.850 --> 0:02:21.010 three season in the history of the sport. OJ Simpson 0:02:21.030 --> 0:02:25.630 was at 143.1 in 1973. Jim Brown in 1963, 133.1. 0:02:25.630 --> 0:02:31.200 Kenneth Walker's at 133 flat. He's a tenth of a 0:02:31.260 --> 0:02:37.180 yard behind Jim Brown's all-time best season. This is ridiculous 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.190 what he's done so far for this offense. 0:02:39.210 --> 0:02:43.510 60-yard run by Ken Walker III! 0:02:43.850 --> 0:02:45.130 Welcome to the kingdom! 0:02:45.450 --> 0:02:47.310 It's like you've been here all along! 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:51.160 It feels like Patrick Mahomes hasn't had to do a 0:02:51.220 --> 0:02:53.820 whole lot relative to the past few years in Kansas 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:57.480 City where everything was dependent on Patrick Mahomes. Not that 0:02:57.500 --> 0:03:00.720 he gets to sit back and do nothing. He does 0:03:00.760 --> 0:03:03.820 have to make his three to four Patrick Mahomes-y type 0:03:03.860 --> 0:03:07.120 plays every single week. But going from needing your quarterback 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:09.800 to make four plays for you every single week, from 0:03:09.860 --> 0:03:13.720 making mandatory you have to make 12 plays for us 0:03:13.780 --> 0:03:16.220 every single week to win, He's got to feel great. 0:03:16.660 --> 0:03:19.419 If you're looking at just the sheer volume of missed 0:03:19.480 --> 0:03:23.519 tackles that he's forced, he has 47 missed tackles on runs, 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.700 nine more than the next closest player. By the way, 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.639 they've had their bye week. He's played less games than 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:32.700 most running backs in the league. He's still at 275 0:03:32.700 --> 0:03:35.440 in terms of yardage after missed tackles. That still leads 0:03:35.500 --> 0:03:39.210 the league after their bye week. Plus 277 rushing yards 0:03:39.320 --> 0:03:43.730 over expected. 100 more than the next closest player with 0:03:43.930 --> 0:03:45.990 one less game played. I could go on and on 0:03:46.010 --> 0:03:51.080 and on. Like every single stat is just first, first, first, first. 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:55.990 And what's interesting about it, defenses haven't really reacted to it. 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.620 They've played a lot of light boxes against Kansas City, 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:01.800 mostly because they're really afraid of these crossing routes that 0:04:01.860 --> 0:04:05.050 Eric Bien-Ami is known for. And spoiler alert, they're leading 0:04:05.090 --> 0:04:07.210 the league in terms of crossing route yardage per game 0:04:07.690 --> 0:04:11.720 again this year. The last time Bien-Ami was OC in 2022, 0:04:11.710 --> 0:04:13.750 they led the league in crossing route yardage per game. 0:04:14.220 --> 0:04:18.190 This year, they're leading again at 88.2 yards per game 0:04:18.230 --> 0:04:20.650 on crossing routes. The next closest team is less than 0:04:20.750 --> 0:04:23.469 half that. And so defenses are playing these two high 0:04:23.510 --> 0:04:27.030 safety structures because they are terrified of these crossing routes 0:04:27.050 --> 0:04:28.870 and they're trying to use these two high structures to 0:04:28.930 --> 0:04:32.380 cut the crossers. And a byproduct of that is. Kenneth 0:04:32.420 --> 0:04:36.420 Walker against light boxes. And he's just destroying everybody. So 0:04:36.460 --> 0:04:38.380 it's kind of damned if you do, damned if you don't, dear. 0:04:38.460 --> 0:04:40.700 Yeah, when you look at last year's Kansas City Chiefs team, 0:04:40.980 --> 0:04:42.640 obviously there wasn't really much of a threat out of 0:04:42.660 --> 0:04:45.190 the backfield. So they were facing light boxes on 76.4% 0:04:45.190 --> 0:04:48.450 of their plays. Teams were basically telling the Chiefs like, hey, 0:04:48.490 --> 0:04:50.930 go ahead, run the ball, see what happens. This year, 0:04:50.970 --> 0:04:54.070 despite having Kenneth Walker, it's down, but it's only down 0:04:54.110 --> 0:04:57.650 to 70.3%. That's not near the percentage that you would 0:04:57.690 --> 0:04:59.710 think for a player that's having as much success on 0:04:59.750 --> 0:05:01.550 the ground, where the number one part of the game 0:05:01.589 --> 0:05:04.190 plan for a lot of teams, you would think, is 0:05:04.210 --> 0:05:07.750 stop Kenneth Walker. But to your point, they're facing more 0:05:07.940 --> 0:05:13.980 split safety looks this year than last year. 38.1% in 2025. 44.4% 0:05:13.980 --> 0:05:18.240 this year. Team's number one concern here is actually stopping 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:18.820 the crosser. 0:05:19.100 --> 0:05:22.100 A lot of times the route drives your front, your 0:05:22.140 --> 0:05:24.340 coverage opportunities as well. You can look at it from 0:05:24.360 --> 0:05:27.160 a top-down perspective as well. If you're in split safety, 0:05:27.180 --> 0:05:28.380 you tend to have a little bit more layers to 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:30.000 your defense, a little more overlap. 0:05:30.020 --> 0:05:33.440 I think everybody's kind of asking the question, what's wrong 0:05:33.460 --> 0:05:35.840 with Sam Darnold right now? Because it's not the same 0:05:35.900 --> 0:05:40.060 for him. When you look at his 2026 season, 77.4 0:05:40.180 --> 0:05:45.279 passer rating, 6.9 yards per attempt, 40.5 success rate, and 0:05:45.320 --> 0:05:49.260 a negative EPA per dropback. When you look at last year, 0:05:49.580 --> 0:05:53.200 even the part of his schedule or his year, the 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:54.859 second half of the season where you would say that 0:05:54.900 --> 0:05:58.550 he quote unquote struggled, it's not as bad. 83.2 passer rating, 0:05:58.550 --> 0:06:02.330 7.2 yards per attempt, 49.5 success rate, still a negative 0:06:02.370 --> 0:06:05.520 EPA per dropback, but not too bad. When Sam Darnold 0:06:05.540 --> 0:06:07.400 was on, though, like the playoffs in the early parts 0:06:07.420 --> 0:06:08.940 of the season, I mean, it was night and day. 0:06:08.980 --> 0:06:11.169 The quarterback rating was over 100 for both of those 0:06:11.330 --> 0:06:13.470 sample sizes for him. So I think a lot of 0:06:13.510 --> 0:06:15.870 people look at this and go, you know, is it 0:06:15.910 --> 0:06:17.990 just something that he's dealing with where it was the 0:06:18.029 --> 0:06:20.770 same thing during the second half of last season and 0:06:20.890 --> 0:06:24.580 will he kind of bounce back? I don't know, because 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:27.420 for as much as it's a Sam Darnold issue, I 0:06:28.680 --> 0:06:32.880 think the root is the lack of Kenneth Walker. Ted 0:06:32.940 --> 0:06:34.590 Wynn did a great job of breaking this down. I 0:06:34.630 --> 0:06:36.730 saw a tweet from him promoting an article. I went 0:06:36.750 --> 0:06:38.370 and read the article and it was fantastic. And I 0:06:38.390 --> 0:06:41.070 kind of went and got some NGS stats that supplement 0:06:41.310 --> 0:06:44.789 what Ted was saying where teams just aren't afraid of 0:06:44.830 --> 0:06:49.150 the Seahawks running game. Last year, they faced one high 0:06:49.250 --> 0:06:53.890 coverages 51.5% of the time because teams wanted that extra 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:57.540 defender closer to the line of scrimmage to stop Kenneth Walker. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:01.980 This year, they're not nearly as afraid. It's only 38%. 0:07:01.980 --> 0:07:07.799 Lightbox rate last year, 59.2%. Teams wanted to stop Kenneth Walker. 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:08.780 This year, 68.5%. 0:07:08.779 --> 0:07:12.560 So again, they're daring the Seahawks to run the ball 0:07:12.980 --> 0:07:14.760 because they know they're not going to be as explosive. 0:07:14.870 --> 0:07:18.110 And they're just straight up not. So for Sam Darnold, 0:07:18.210 --> 0:07:20.950 a lot more is on his plate because there is 0:07:21.010 --> 0:07:24.090 not that threat of the electric player out of the backfield. 0:07:24.570 --> 0:07:29.090 And unfortunately, as he's trying to mitigate that and attack 0:07:29.110 --> 0:07:32.850 down the field and have more on his shoulders, the 0:07:32.910 --> 0:07:36.170 only player they consistently go to for success is JSN. 0:07:36.530 --> 0:07:38.510 And I think that then on the other side of 0:07:38.550 --> 0:07:41.830 things for the Chiefs, that lends itself to maybe what 0:07:41.860 --> 0:07:44.239 Steve Spagnuolo is going to be able to defend against 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:45.080 pretty well this week. 0:07:45.460 --> 0:07:48.180 You can see the downstream effect of Walker no longer 0:07:48.220 --> 0:07:50.860 being in Seattle just in the coverages that they're facing. 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:53.800 Last year, to your point, because they faced so much 0:07:53.900 --> 0:07:57.780 one high, their overall cloud rate faced, cloud rate is 0:07:57.820 --> 0:08:01.600 defined as any coverage where there is a cloud corner 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:05.330 hanging out in the flat. They faced that 32.6% of 0:08:05.350 --> 0:08:07.810 the time this year. That's number one in the league 0:08:07.830 --> 0:08:10.410 in terms of amount of cloud looks faced. Last year, 0:08:10.430 --> 0:08:14.010 they were 23rd. And that was even with JSN going nuclear, 0:08:14.490 --> 0:08:17.700 becoming one of like six receivers ever to have 1,800 0:08:17.700 --> 0:08:20.680 plus yards in a season. And so if you're looking 0:08:20.820 --> 0:08:25.580 at just the response that defenses have this year to JSN, 0:08:26.540 --> 0:08:29.320 you don't have the running back that can punish that 0:08:29.380 --> 0:08:32.380 response with these two high looks. just like he's doing 0:08:32.420 --> 0:08:35.080 right now in Kansas City. So maybe these numbers would 0:08:35.100 --> 0:08:37.209 be different if they still had Jadarian Price because their 0:08:37.330 --> 0:08:40.530 overall explosive rate is down on the ground this year, 0:08:40.650 --> 0:08:49.500 but Jadarian Price's individual explosive rate is high. Maybe if 0:08:49.540 --> 0:08:51.980 he was in these games and their explosive rate was higher, 0:08:52.020 --> 0:08:53.880 the cloud rate would be lower because teams would be 0:08:54.570 --> 0:08:57.690 playing it similarly to how they played them when they 0:08:57.710 --> 0:09:00.170 had Kenneth Walker. But right now, the only person that 0:09:00.190 --> 0:09:04.010 really scares you on Seattle is JSN. So why would 0:09:04.030 --> 0:09:06.350 you do anything different than what they're seeing right now? 0:09:06.910 --> 0:09:10.500 Which is a problem against this Chiefs team, because if 0:09:10.580 --> 0:09:13.020 you look at how Mansour Delane has played over the 0:09:13.059 --> 0:09:16.120 last two weeks specifically, I mean, his QBR allowed is 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:18.680 lower than 50. I mean, Brett, this guy's a rookie. 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:20.460 And not only that, like he missed a little bit 0:09:20.500 --> 0:09:22.360 of time due to injury. I mean, he He is 0:09:22.460 --> 0:09:25.780 green to playing at the pro level and he's looked unbelievable. 0:09:26.179 --> 0:09:30.820 You've got so many impressive one-on-one reps with Mansour Delane 0:09:30.900 --> 0:09:34.300 already because his coverage skills, I think from an athletic 0:09:34.420 --> 0:09:38.260 and physical standpoint, are so, so, so good that, look, 0:09:38.300 --> 0:09:40.319 I'm not saying that he's going to totally blanket and 0:09:40.380 --> 0:09:43.800 shut down JSN, but you have the rare ability to 0:09:43.900 --> 0:09:47.020 play JSN in in press man coverage when you have 0:09:47.059 --> 0:09:49.870 a player like that and say, Hey, you know what? 0:09:50.070 --> 0:09:52.190 JSN is going to get his a little bit, but 0:09:52.290 --> 0:09:54.510 so is the lane. And we're okay with that because 0:09:54.550 --> 0:09:58.670 we're not afraid of anybody else beating us. And I 0:09:58.730 --> 0:10:01.380 think that's a problem. for Seattle. And this is going 0:10:01.390 --> 0:10:04.000 to be a game where they're going to have to 0:10:04.059 --> 0:10:08.079 lean on somebody else to outscore Kansas City. Because a 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.179 lot of teams, I think, over the last couple of 0:10:10.220 --> 0:10:13.140 years have been afraid of to play jsn in man 0:10:13.179 --> 0:10:15.360 coverage because it's it's jackson in the jig but he's 0:10:15.380 --> 0:10:17.959 just an incredible separator he's such an artist when it 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.710 comes to route running when when jsn is running at 0:10:20.750 --> 0:10:22.890 you he does not give anything away you have no 0:10:22.950 --> 0:10:24.370 idea where he is going you don't know if he's 0:10:24.410 --> 0:10:26.010 going vertical you don't know if he's breaking left to 0:10:26.070 --> 0:10:27.709 right you don't know if he's coming back there's there's 0:10:27.750 --> 0:10:31.550 just so little tells and unless you are truly an 0:10:31.590 --> 0:10:34.220 elite athlete type of a corner you don't have that 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.059 stop and start ability to keep up with him and 0:10:36.100 --> 0:10:37.920 because of that they say well we just got to 0:10:37.960 --> 0:10:40.230 play zone because if not then JSN is going to 0:10:40.270 --> 0:10:42.230 burn us. But then when they play zone, guess what 0:10:42.270 --> 0:10:44.530 JSN does? He finds a soft spot in the zone 0:10:44.830 --> 0:10:47.310 and he's unbelievable about it. So it's almost like teams 0:10:47.350 --> 0:10:49.890 are manifesting their own fear by not wanting to get 0:10:49.910 --> 0:10:52.500 aggressive against him. I don't have that same thought process 0:10:52.540 --> 0:10:55.280 for Steve Spagnuolo, especially with Mansour Delane now on the team. 0:10:55.679 --> 0:10:57.400 I don't think they're going to look at JSN and say, 0:10:57.660 --> 0:10:59.100 we're afraid of you. I think they're going to go 0:10:59.160 --> 0:11:01.940 right at him. And until him and Sam Darnold prove 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.920 that whatever type of close aggressive man coverage doesn't work 0:11:04.970 --> 0:11:07.490 against them, they're going to run it. And they're just 0:11:07.510 --> 0:11:09.170 going to dare them to sort of beat them another way. 0:11:09.590 --> 0:11:11.630 And hell, even if you're just looking at man coverage 0:11:11.690 --> 0:11:16.710 on third down, we're seeing their overall third down yards 0:11:16.830 --> 0:11:20.089 per play versus man coverage. It just fell off a 0:11:20.170 --> 0:11:22.350 cliff this year. They were highest in the league last 0:11:22.390 --> 0:11:26.699 year at 7.4. This year, third down against man coverage 0:11:26.720 --> 0:11:29.520 at 3.2. That's dead last in the NFL. So if 0:11:29.540 --> 0:11:35.170 they're not throwing to JSN, they're getting nothing. JSN individually 0:11:35.330 --> 0:11:36.869 is doing just fine. You know, he's one of the 0:11:36.890 --> 0:11:39.610 most productive players in the NFL. But they don't have 0:11:39.730 --> 0:11:42.429 anybody else to punish it. And so if we're doing 0:11:42.490 --> 0:11:46.569 a hard double on JSN in man coverage on third down, 0:11:46.890 --> 0:11:48.410 or if we just have a corner that's good enough 0:11:48.429 --> 0:11:50.750 to do it by himself, and everybody else is on 0:11:50.790 --> 0:11:55.010 an island, they have nothing else. Like, for whatever reason, 0:11:55.190 --> 0:11:57.110 you know, the names that they have in their receiving core, 0:11:57.150 --> 0:11:59.610 whether it's Rashid Shaheed or Cooper Cup, like, you think 0:11:59.650 --> 0:12:04.030 they should be able to get something, and they're getting nothing. nothing. 0:12:04.290 --> 0:12:06.550 And teams have started to do that more against them 0:12:06.620 --> 0:12:08.620 on third down. If you're looking at third down man 0:12:08.660 --> 0:12:11.859 coverage rate faced last year, they were 23rd because you 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:13.780 don't want to do that against JSN this year. Teams 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:16.260 are realizing, okay, well, if we're in man coverage, we're 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:18.819 in man coverage everywhere, which means everybody on their team 0:12:18.860 --> 0:12:21.079 also has a one-on-one. So we just take care of 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:23.740 the problem and make them beat us with somebody else. 0:12:24.100 --> 0:12:26.780 They are now at the fourth highest man coverage rate 0:12:26.800 --> 0:12:28.940 faced on third down in the NFL this year. So 0:12:29.059 --> 0:12:31.890 it seems counterintuitive, but it's like, okay, You don't want 0:12:31.910 --> 0:12:34.190 to play man against a team that has multiple threats. 0:12:34.370 --> 0:12:37.630 If they have one threat, sure, go ahead. Be my guest. 0:12:47.100 --> 0:12:50.920 Let's move on to Packers-Lions next. And I've seen North 0:12:50.940 --> 0:12:54.730 Divisional matchup here. Packers, man, really struggled out of the gate, 0:12:54.770 --> 0:12:57.190 especially with their offense on their offensive line and their 0:12:57.230 --> 0:12:59.089 defensive line, I would say. It was really slow in 0:12:59.110 --> 0:13:01.310 the trenches for this team. But over the last couple 0:13:01.330 --> 0:13:03.770 of weeks, they've looked really good. And Jordan Love, I 0:13:03.809 --> 0:13:06.910 know it can sort of lean into the narrative of, hey, 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:10.580 it's an up-and-down team. It's an up-and-down offense. But my goodness, 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.380 when it's up, it looks good for the Packers. And 0:13:13.420 --> 0:13:16.339 they have an explosive offense that can absolutely keep up 0:13:16.650 --> 0:13:20.470 With the Detroit Lions, who, because of their defensive woes, 0:13:21.270 --> 0:13:23.410 kind of have to be great. Their foot is on 0:13:23.429 --> 0:13:26.959 the gas pedal from the moment the ball is kicked off. 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:29.720 Jump and grab! J-Mo touchdown! 0:13:30.100 --> 0:13:32.020 I kind of want to start with Jordan Love. We're 0:13:32.059 --> 0:13:34.780 not even in Toyotathon yet, and he is already playing 0:13:35.059 --> 0:13:38.900 Toyotathon Jordan Love. He is out of his mind this year. 0:13:39.780 --> 0:13:44.900 If you're looking at 30-plus air yard passes, he's got 12. 0:13:44.900 --> 0:13:48.319 That's four more than the next closest player. If you're 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:52.470 looking at deep passing yards, he's got 283 since week four. 0:13:52.490 --> 0:13:54.910 It's not even the entire season. That's just since week four. 0:13:54.910 --> 0:13:58.750 18 deep pass attempts. That's most in the NFL. Seven 0:13:58.790 --> 0:14:01.929 deep completions. That's tied for second most. Only Drake May 0:14:02.110 --> 0:14:04.990 is ahead of him in that category. He is just 0:14:05.390 --> 0:14:09.360 on a... And I personally love watching, you know, modern 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:11.440 Jordan Love. A few years ago, Jordan Love, like, you 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:13.700 would get these crazy deep completions, but then you'd also 0:14:13.740 --> 0:14:15.680 get the worst pick you've ever seen in your life. 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.819 He's cut out the bad picks and just left all 0:14:18.860 --> 0:14:21.940 the elite stuff. Dare I say, he is trending towards 0:14:22.020 --> 0:14:25.820 being Rodgers-esque, because for a long time, that was what 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:29.080 you got with Rodgers, too. You got breathtaking deep completions, 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.780 threading the needle, making the most arrogant throw ever that 0:14:32.900 --> 0:14:35.910 should not even be attempted but still completed. and also 0:14:36.010 --> 0:14:40.080 no bad picks. And Jordan Love is trending towards that. 0:14:40.250 --> 0:14:42.440 And as long as he plays like that, no Edge Cooper, 0:14:42.500 --> 0:14:47.960 no Micah Parsons, offensive line depth chart in shambles, no 0:14:48.020 --> 0:14:51.640 run game, doesn't matter. They're a good team when you 0:14:51.660 --> 0:14:52.760 have a quarterback playing like that. 0:14:53.020 --> 0:14:55.230 Yeah. And I mean, you look at the receivers that 0:14:55.250 --> 0:14:58.330 he's thrown into. We knew over the last couple of years, 0:14:58.390 --> 0:15:01.250 anytime that Christian Watson has been healthy, he's been heavily 0:15:01.290 --> 0:15:04.100 impactful for this team. Second most yards in the NFL 0:15:04.220 --> 0:15:09.470 on downfield targets, 444. But then the emergence of Matthew Golden, 0:15:09.510 --> 0:15:12.900 I think, has meant everything. to this team because it's 0:15:13.180 --> 0:15:14.680 a little bit of sort of what we talked about 0:15:14.700 --> 0:15:16.840 with the Seahawks in the last segment. It's one thing 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:18.700 to have one guy that you fear. When you have 0:15:18.800 --> 0:15:21.280 two players that you have to fear, it makes defense 0:15:21.780 --> 0:15:26.760 exponentially harder. When you look at Matthew Golden, 501 receiving yards, 0:15:26.780 --> 0:15:30.990 that's sixth most in the NFL, seventh most on downfield targets, 331. 0:15:30.990 --> 0:15:32.490 So they have the player who has the second most 0:15:32.710 --> 0:15:37.510 downfield receiving yards and the seventh most downfield receiving yards. 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:39.980 Both of those guys are played at an incredibly high level. 0:15:40.220 --> 0:15:42.600 I think that Watson and what he could do vertically 0:15:42.700 --> 0:15:44.720 is a constant threat every single time he is on 0:15:44.740 --> 0:15:47.110 the field. And then where Matthew Golden is certainly a 0:15:47.140 --> 0:15:49.810 vertical threat, they're using Matthew Golden on a lot of 0:15:49.850 --> 0:15:52.930 different things. Those deep crossers, I think he has been 0:15:52.970 --> 0:15:55.750 fantastic at this season. Things to the sideline as well, 0:15:55.810 --> 0:15:58.130 more of an intermediate receiver. All of that is there 0:15:58.210 --> 0:16:00.560 for them to where I think that Tucker Crafts had 0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:02.480 a really quiet season. I know he's been banged up 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:04.510 a little bit, but I think the reason why is 0:16:04.900 --> 0:16:07.850 less about Tucker Kraft and more about we got to 0:16:07.870 --> 0:16:09.630 get this Matthew Golden guy the ball as much as 0:16:09.690 --> 0:16:13.070 humanly possible. And so it's a great place to be 0:16:13.850 --> 0:16:15.850 when there's a player that you think has the talent 0:16:15.870 --> 0:16:17.610 and he's even proven that he has the talent to 0:16:17.650 --> 0:16:19.820 be more involved in the offense. And you just can't 0:16:19.860 --> 0:16:22.240 get him the ball enough because, well, you're having so 0:16:22.260 --> 0:16:25.140 much success doing something else. And you're winning while you're 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:27.480 doing it. And I think that's where the Packers are 0:16:27.540 --> 0:16:30.990 right now. Anything more on the Packers, specifically on offense, 0:16:31.030 --> 0:16:33.270 before we move to... Because I think that the Packers' 0:16:33.750 --> 0:16:37.030 defense versus what the Lions have been doing on the 0:16:37.130 --> 0:16:39.930 offensive line is also an interesting part of this matchup. 0:16:40.250 --> 0:16:43.330 That to me is, even beyond Jordan Love, that's the story. 0:16:43.550 --> 0:16:47.720 Jonathan Gannon is calling himself a defense right now. He's 0:16:47.750 --> 0:16:50.820 missing arguably his two best players on the unit. So 0:16:51.100 --> 0:16:53.800 he's kind of piecing it together a little bit here. And, 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.500 you know, he's gotten great contributions from Lucas Van Ness 0:16:56.560 --> 0:16:58.920 and the safeties. And, you know, even the corners, I 0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.120 would say, have played better in the last few weeks. 0:17:01.460 --> 0:17:05.540 But he very much is cobbling this thing together. And 0:17:05.580 --> 0:17:13.090 he's doing a phenomenal job. In particular, he's really upped 0:17:13.130 --> 0:17:17.280 their blitz rate. Right now they're blitzing at a 33.2% rate. 0:17:17.410 --> 0:17:20.820 They were under a 30% blitz rate every year for 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.840 the last five seasons. So he's bringing more pressure to 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:26.660 compensate for the fact that they don't have Micah Parsons. 0:17:27.040 --> 0:17:31.480 And schematically on the back end, what he's complemented these 0:17:31.740 --> 0:17:35.189 blitz looks with, whether he's showing pressure and bringing it 0:17:35.270 --> 0:17:37.870 or showing pressure and backing out of it, what he's 0:17:38.210 --> 0:17:42.109 complementing that aggression with is movement on the back end. 0:17:42.900 --> 0:17:45.159 So not only is he showing pressure, but he's making 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:49.340 you decipher that pressure while watching the safeties and corners 0:17:49.420 --> 0:17:52.820 just go every single which way. This is something he 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:55.580 did a lot in Arizona. If you're looking at, say, 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.600 past Packers defenses under Jeff Halfley, they were known for 0:17:58.660 --> 0:18:01.159 rotation as well, but a different kind of rotation. They 0:18:01.180 --> 0:18:03.340 would start out in two high. They would bring the 0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.840 safeties down and get into a one high look, whether 0:18:05.859 --> 0:18:08.720 it was cover three, you know, three strong, three weak. 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.330 They would bring these safeties down and basically be not 0:18:12.369 --> 0:18:16.010 a hook dropper, but be a hook defender from depth, 0:18:16.830 --> 0:18:20.060 which is all the rage across the NFL, is getting 0:18:20.100 --> 0:18:23.859 into cover three from too high. Gannon did it differently 0:18:24.060 --> 0:18:28.020 in Arizona, more than pretty much any other defense in 0:18:28.040 --> 0:18:30.460 the league last year, is where he would still rotate, 0:18:30.500 --> 0:18:32.679 but do it the opposite way. He would start out 0:18:32.740 --> 0:18:36.290 in one high and then rotate into too high at 0:18:36.330 --> 0:18:39.250 the snap. And he's bringing that kind of philosophy to 0:18:39.290 --> 0:18:42.119 Green Bay this year, To great effect. That's how they 0:18:42.160 --> 0:18:44.859 got the interception on Dak last week. At least one 0:18:44.900 --> 0:18:47.639 of the interceptions on Dak last week. So this is 0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:50.960 a three by one in the red zone, high red 0:18:51.010 --> 0:18:54.949 zone in particular. And just looking at this pre-snap, you 0:18:54.990 --> 0:18:57.490 know it's probably not man coverage because CD is the 0:18:57.570 --> 0:19:00.510 number three to the field side. The field side meaning 0:19:00.530 --> 0:19:03.149 the wide side. Coaches call the short side of the 0:19:03.170 --> 0:19:06.649 field the boundary side. So field and boundary. We count 0:19:06.869 --> 0:19:11.090 outside in. One, two, three. Seedy's at the number three here. 0:19:11.670 --> 0:19:14.510 There is no corner on him. There is no safety 0:19:14.609 --> 0:19:17.370 on him, which tells us it's probably not man coverage. 0:19:18.109 --> 0:19:21.350 And for Dak, he's thinking, oh, this is probably cover 0:19:21.470 --> 0:19:25.530 three then, which means I might have this linebacker having 0:19:25.550 --> 0:19:29.369 to carry Seedy Lamb vertical. And in that case, we 0:19:29.410 --> 0:19:31.910 can beat him kind of over the top with this bender. 0:19:32.210 --> 0:19:34.230 We run it inside the safety. We run it over 0:19:34.270 --> 0:19:37.449 the linebacker. I make a great throw. Seedy gets me 0:19:37.490 --> 0:19:40.040 the touchdown. That's what he's thinking here based on this 0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:44.600 pre-snap presentation. Is one single high safety, no DB on 0:19:44.740 --> 0:19:48.290 CeeDee Lamb. That is not what the coverage is. And 0:19:48.330 --> 0:19:53.220 this is diabolic. by Jonathan Gannon. You have Evan Williams 0:19:53.640 --> 0:19:55.810 lined up off the edge here. Evan Williams, who you 0:19:55.850 --> 0:19:58.790 shouted out, I believe in our, our quarterly report here 0:19:58.830 --> 0:20:01.629 on NFL pro for playing great football this year. So 0:20:01.670 --> 0:20:04.610 he's lined up off the edge. There is no universe 0:20:04.950 --> 0:20:07.810 where Dak thinks this is going to be quarters coverage. 0:20:08.310 --> 0:20:11.170 How could it possibly be quarters coverage when the safety, 0:20:11.210 --> 0:20:14.540 the boundary safety, is lined up as an edge? Let 0:20:14.580 --> 0:20:17.440 alone a look where you have this safety coming over 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:21.180 and playing with the Fangio world, Jonathan Gannon's world, calls 0:20:21.220 --> 0:20:25.620 a tricks technique where you're poaching the number three from 0:20:25.700 --> 0:20:28.619 the back side. You can look at the line that 0:20:28.660 --> 0:20:30.790 he sets himself on in the snap. He's not doing 0:20:30.850 --> 0:20:34.970 anything other than just finding cd lamb because these dbs 0:20:35.030 --> 0:20:38.950 know their pre-snap presentation is basically dangling this linebacker in 0:20:38.990 --> 0:20:41.540