1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,639 Speaker 1: Let's start with the burn pits. This obviously has become 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,760 Speaker 1: a massive cultural touchstone. I think it should. John Stewart 3 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: single handedly is the person responsible for advancing this legislation. 4 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: Before that, there were thousands of people afflicted with all 5 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: kinds of crazy neurological conditions, health conditions, breathing conditions having 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: been exposed to these toxic burn pits. And just you know, again, 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:22,479 Speaker 1: if this is your intro to what exactly a burn 8 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,000 Speaker 1: pit is. In Iraq and Afghanistan, throughout our twenty years 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: of experience there, we would just simply put stuff into 10 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: these pits, everything from human excrement to weapons to all 11 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,519 Speaker 1: kinds of just leftover stuff, and then light it on 12 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,839 Speaker 1: fire with jet fuel, and then, by the way, just 13 00:00:41,200 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: post US troops all around it, either guarding it or 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 1: within the immediate vicinity. Nobody on earth can tell you 15 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:49,959 Speaker 1: that that's going to be good for you. And as 16 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: we saw post nine to eleven, thousands of people years 17 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 1: later are really suffering. And from the beginning, the Veterans 18 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: Affairs Department has been terrible in appropriating funds to the 19 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,319 Speaker 1: toxic burn pick victims. They haven't recognized it fully as 20 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: a condition there's all. They blame complex bureaucracy. And so 21 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: Congress did what they're supposed to do, which is they 22 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,120 Speaker 1: need to appropriate money and they need to make sure 23 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,280 Speaker 1: that these victims are recognized by US law and are 24 00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: given the care that they deserve the years after after 25 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,120 Speaker 1: we put them in harm's way. Now, we had thought 26 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 1: that this is called the Packed Act, was a done deal, 27 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: was eighty two to fourteen vote, had passed the Senate 28 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: and went to the House. There were some small changes 29 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,679 Speaker 1: that were added within the House of Representatives, and it 30 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,880 Speaker 1: was kicked back over to the Senate for what was 31 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: expected to be a routine vote. However, Republicans now under 32 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 1: Senator pat to Me, are leading a charge to actually 33 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: block the bill. So let's go ahead and put this 34 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 1: up there on the screen. Forty one Republican senators blocked 35 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,759 Speaker 1: that bill to expand the healthcare for veterans exposed to 36 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: toxic burn pits. Now, the objection here, The objection is 37 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,160 Speaker 1: that from Senator to Me, and apparently backed by many 38 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: Senate Republicans, is that a specific accounting measure within the 39 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:03,120 Speaker 1: bill would supposedly spend the same money twice, and according 40 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 1: to to me, this is not actually backed up by 41 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 1: some several independent analyzes, would enable hundreds of billions of 42 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,960 Speaker 1: dollars in new, unrelated spending on the discretionary side of 43 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: the federal budget. Mitch McConnell, Pat Toomey and others somehow 44 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: discovered this in the immediate aftermath crystal of Joe Manchin 45 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: and Kurt Chuck Schumer, right, finding a deal on the 46 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 1: so called Inflation Reduction Act is actually just a climb. 47 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: I think this should just call it what it is, 48 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 1: which is an electric vehicle subsidy plus new tax credits. 49 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 1: But that's fine, you know, I'm completely fine with those things. 50 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:38,000 Speaker 1: So good. Yes, that is the important context is Republicans 51 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: were in the midst of a total hissy fit temper 52 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,160 Speaker 1: tantrum over the fact that Number McConnell had come out 53 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:45,720 Speaker 1: and say, listen, if you guys are going to go 54 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: forward with a reconciliation deal, I'm going to tech tank 55 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: the Chips Act, which, let's, by the way, take a 56 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 1: moment to step back and think about the total insanity 57 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: of that. Why does this legislation have anything to do 58 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,359 Speaker 1: with this legislation over here? If the Chips Act is 59 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,679 Speaker 1: a good bill, that you think is good for the country. 60 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: Why would you hold the sausage? But anyway, he had 61 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: made that threat, so they kept it quiet. Democrats uncharacteristically 62 00:03:08,560 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: actually like kept their mouths shut and had a smart strategy. 63 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: Hours after the Chips Act passes through the Senate, then 64 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,920 Speaker 1: it's revealed that this Mansion Schumer deal comes out. Republicans 65 00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: are irate, they're melting down, They're so mad. They're not 66 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: used to actually having Democrats have three brain cells to 67 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,800 Speaker 1: rub together and like actually have a decent strategy. They 68 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: whip against the Chips Act in the House. That's part 69 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: of the retribution, but it still gets through the House. 70 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: They still have enough Republican defectors in the Democratic Caucus 71 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: stays together, so lo and behold. The next thing they 72 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 1: do is decide to block this bill. Now, let's be 73 00:03:41,400 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 1: really clear, because to me, in fairness, was opposed to 74 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: this bill last time it came through and has always 75 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: apparently been hung up on this stupid accounting thing, which 76 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: it's just the difference between designating this money as mandatory 77 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 1: versus discretionary. Well, guess what making it mandatory does. It 78 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: means that these veterans are going to be able to 79 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,640 Speaker 1: count on it versus having to come back and continue 80 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,560 Speaker 1: to beg hat in hand, as John Stewart ultimately puts it, 81 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: to be able to access these benefits and prove that 82 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: they're worthy of our support after serving our country. So 83 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: this accounting piece has always been in this bill. There 84 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 1: was an impression that Democrats had like snuck this in 85 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: at the last minute and tried to pull one over 86 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,440 Speaker 1: on the Republicans. No, no, no, this is the very 87 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: same bill that sailed through last time. What was a 88 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:35,360 Speaker 1: eighty four people voted for it. Thirty some Republicans flipped 89 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: their votes on the identical bill as part of their 90 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: hissy fit over the Mansien Schumer bill. I mean, that 91 00:04:43,080 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: is the only logical conclusion you can come to, given 92 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,200 Speaker 1: the fact that it is literally the same thing that 93 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: they voted for just weeks ago. Absolutely, and this is 94 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: something that John Stewart, to his credit, has been using 95 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: both his celebrity his platform, traveled to Washington. He's making 96 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 1: sure that everybody who can is hearing about this and 97 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,080 Speaker 1: is drawing attention to what previously would have just been 98 00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:08,039 Speaker 1: arcane Senate procedure and some ridiculous objection and now drawing 99 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,240 Speaker 1: it to the center of public attention. Let's hear what 100 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: he had to say. I don't even know. Honestly, I 101 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: don't even know what to say. I haven't coming down 102 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:20,239 Speaker 1: here ten fifteen years. I'm used to the hypocrisy. Christina 103 00:05:20,320 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: Ken will tell you from BFW she sat in an 104 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: office with Mitch McConnell and a war veteran from Kentucky. 105 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: And he looked that man in the eyes and he said, 106 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:40,640 Speaker 1: and he lied to him, because Mitch McConnell yesterday flipped. 107 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: I'm used to the lies. I'm used to the hypocrisy. 108 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 1: Senator Pat Toomey won't take a meeting with the veterans groups, 109 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: sends out his chief of staff. I'm used to the cowardice. 110 00:05:56,320 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 1: I've been here a long time Senates where accountability goes 111 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:04,279 Speaker 1: to die. These people don't care. They're never losing their jobs, 112 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: they're never losing their healthcare. Pat Toomey didn't lose his job. 113 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 1: He's walking away. God knows what kind of pot of 114 00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:16,159 Speaker 1: gold he's stepping in two to lobby this government to 115 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 1: shit on more people. I'm used to all of it, 116 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 1: but I'm not used to the cruelty. I mean, there's 117 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:31,359 Speaker 1: not a lot you can argue with their senator to 118 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,080 Speaker 1: me is retiring. He has been probably one of the 119 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,679 Speaker 1: number one friends of corporate America in the United States Senate, 120 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,599 Speaker 1: which I've always found insane because he is from the 121 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,720 Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania. It's a great actually preview into how 122 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,840 Speaker 1: you can use culture war politics actually economically punish your 123 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: own state whenever you're a senator and actually get reelected. 124 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: So it's kind of a mystifying and interesting test case. 125 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 1: Ron Johnson is another one who is fits in this category. 126 00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 1: But these two gentlemen economic libertarians really to their core. 127 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 1: Will it be any wonder when he leaves and he gets, 128 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,720 Speaker 1: you know, fetted by the US Chamber of Commerce and 129 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 1: he becomes a lobbyist for some fortune five hundred company. No, 130 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: it won't, And he is exactly right in pointing that out. 131 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 1: What I think beyond the to me though, is that, 132 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: as you pointed out, this has been a part of 133 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: a bill from the beginning. They didn't care when eighty 134 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: two to fourteen and then voted for it, right, and 135 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: then they flipped overnight. That was the thing that is 136 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: Steve Danes and Ted Cruz and many others were seen 137 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: fist bumping on the floor of the Senate after block creating, 138 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: and again this is done solely as a political move 139 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 1: that they happen to just wake up to at the 140 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:41,120 Speaker 1: eleventh hour and are now saying, oh, well, unless this 141 00:07:41,200 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: gets fixed, then we're not going to go through with it, 142 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: effectively holding it hostage. And again to the actual implications. 143 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: I mean, do you remember all those times that they 144 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 1: also played footsie with nine to eleven healthcare workers funding 145 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 1: that we don't Why should we keep putting people through 146 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 1: this like making it mandatory, which we do have have 147 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,480 Speaker 1: for many things, especially for the elderly. You know, they'll 148 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 1: never actually vote against that, at least on the record 149 00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: that won't vote against that one. But we have this 150 00:08:07,920 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: arrangement for people who we have decided that we owe. 151 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,200 Speaker 1: I mean, who else could we find that we owe 152 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,239 Speaker 1: as much as people who were their nine to eleven 153 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,440 Speaker 1: first responders or those who were afflicted with a terrible 154 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 1: health condition as a result of serving their country and 155 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: serving overseas in a war that they shouldn't have been 156 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: in the first place. And if they are, then we 157 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 1: sure as hell should do everything we can in order 158 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: to help them. And I think there's a couple other 159 00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: things to say about this. Number one. I know there's 160 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:34,560 Speaker 1: probably a lot of people who look at John Stewart 161 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: as like a partisan actor, but remember we played I 162 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: think we played the interview he did with Dennis McDonough, 163 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: who is head of the BA, and he was very 164 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: harsh with McDonough, who had no good answers on this. 165 00:08:46,280 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: And it is a travesty that what it takes in 166 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 1: America to just get the basics of what you are 167 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 1: owed is to have a celebrity who's willing to, you know, 168 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,160 Speaker 1: go and do the interviews and hold people's feet to 169 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 1: the fire and shame these legislators into doing the right 170 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 1: thing after decades of dragging their feet. It's exact same 171 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: thing with the nine to eleven survivors. It took John 172 00:09:08,040 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: Stewart coming out and shaming the lawmakers into finally doing 173 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: the right thing, and now it looked like he had 174 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 1: been able to do the same thing effectively with toxic 175 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: burn pit victims. And there's also money in here for 176 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:23,720 Speaker 1: people who are still struggling with Agent Orange as well. 177 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: All the money in this bill. Just to be really clear, 178 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: because I saw a lot of misinformation online about this, 179 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: All this money goes to veterans who have suffered conditions 180 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: because of their service. That's it. That's the whole bill. 181 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: There's not all this extra this and that and poison. No, 182 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,280 Speaker 1: it's just money for veterans who have served the country 183 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: and who have illnesses because of it. The current system. 184 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: The reason why they're not able to get healthcare for 185 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: these rare cancers and other conditions they've developed is because 186 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,760 Speaker 1: they have to prove that that condition came directly from 187 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 1: the burn pits. How the hell are you going to 188 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 1: do that? Okay, that's impossible, But when you look at 189 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 1: the type of top sick chemicals that they were exposed to, 190 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: it has been signed to prove it that these things 191 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: are cancer causing. So this is the very very least 192 00:10:09,040 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 1: that we owe these family wants to be clear, we 193 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: will never be able to make it up to them. 194 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: There is no making this thing right. This is the 195 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,320 Speaker 1: bare minimum of what we can do. And then, as 196 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: I always do, I have to point out the fact that, 197 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 1: you know, people who are affiliated with the State Department 198 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:27,599 Speaker 1: came up with this havana syndrome thing which is thoroughly unproven, 199 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,560 Speaker 1: which you know, the sound that they said associated was 200 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 1: associated with it turned out to be crickets. The agency's 201 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 1: own analysis says, this is probably not any you know, 202 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: Russian brain wave like weapon or whatever they were theorizing. 203 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:42,400 Speaker 1: I wonder what the vote was in the Senate to 204 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 1: appropriate money for Havana syndrome sufferers. This thing that's sailed through, 205 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:49,319 Speaker 1: and yet these veterans are having to fight tooth and 206 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:51,680 Speaker 1: nail to get the basics of what they deserve for. 207 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 1: All right, let's give you an update on the Mansion 208 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: humor climate bill that is the cause of the Republican 209 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: temper trantrum. Jeff Stein and others have some reporting into 210 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 1: the days leading up to this deal being struck between 211 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:06,440 Speaker 1: Mansion schum Or. This from the Washington Post. Let's put 212 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: this up on the screen. So apparently Democrats, you know, 213 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: they threw everything at the wall to actually try to 214 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: persuade Mansion guilt shame, what of you know, calling in 215 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,719 Speaker 1: Larry Summers and Bill Gates to make the case to 216 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 1: him that now is the time to act, and that 217 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 1: if they don't act right now, you're potentially talking about, 218 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 1: you know, decades before you be able to really move 219 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: in a significant way on climate. Because there's a recognition 220 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: that Democrats are not going to have the House, the Senate, 221 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 1: and the White House for probably past November, and who 222 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,160 Speaker 1: knows when they may end up back in this situation. 223 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,040 Speaker 1: So you know, they talked about how Chris Coons that 224 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: are Chris Kuons, of course, is close to Joe Biden 225 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,800 Speaker 1: was on a trip with Mansion, and he said to him, 226 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,320 Speaker 1: there are folks in our party who are saying all 227 00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 1: sorts of terrible things about you, who believe you were 228 00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: stringing us along for a year, that you were never 229 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: going to come to a deal because of your state 230 00:11:59,280 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: or because of your in flicks of interest. And Coons 231 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 1: then told Mansion, I can't think of a better way 232 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:05,520 Speaker 1: for you to prove them all wrong than to sign 233 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: off on a bold climate deal, prove every credit wrong. 234 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 1: And Mansion thought for a second and responded, it would 235 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: be like hitting a homer in the bottom of the 236 00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:16,760 Speaker 1: ninth So calling in Larry Summers, calling in Bill Gates. 237 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,959 Speaker 1: There is a funny part too, because just three days 238 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:24,400 Speaker 1: before this deal was announced, former Trump advisor Steven Moore, 239 00:12:24,520 --> 00:12:27,680 Speaker 1: remember that dude profusely thanked Mansion on a column reading 240 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 1: from the article for blocking This is actually from Jeff 241 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: Stein's sweet for blocking D's climate energy deal quote. I 242 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: said something to the effect of, you're a hero. Thank 243 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 1: you for what you've done. You've saved the country. And 244 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 1: then days later this deal is ultimately announced. David Dahan, 245 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:44,880 Speaker 1: who I spoke with last week for Crystal Collin Friends. 246 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,679 Speaker 1: His theory, which I kind of buy, is that, you know, 247 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 1: for Mansion being like trashed by climate activists, he didn't 248 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: care about that, but you were starting to have an 249 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,959 Speaker 1: elite consensus around him being a real villain, and he 250 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 1: was not prepared for sort of elite set, you know, 251 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,640 Speaker 1: the New York Times and watching Post editorial board to 252 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: fully turn against him in that way, and that that 253 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,280 Speaker 1: sort of shamed him into doing something here. Yeah, I mean, 254 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: look again, I will say, in terms of this bill, 255 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:15,200 Speaker 1: there is not a lot to hate if you do 256 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:18,120 Speaker 1: look at it pretty look if you think about it 257 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 1: in terms of spending, this isn't unpaid for. This is 258 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: just raising the minimum amount that two hundred corporations of 259 00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: the United States will have to pay. It's also here's 260 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,680 Speaker 1: an interesting thing. Anytime you see a corporation who's coming 261 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 1: out and is saying that this is going to have 262 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: an undue effect on their business. They're just admitting that 263 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: they pay less than fifteen percent in taxes right here, 264 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:41,960 Speaker 1: Because all this does is say, hey, no matter what, 265 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 1: you just have to pay a minimum of fifteen percent, 266 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:47,640 Speaker 1: which means they're gamifying the tax system and are not 267 00:13:47,720 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: paying fifteen percent a year fifteen again, which is way 268 00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,839 Speaker 1: lower than the rest of the industrialized world. We talk 269 00:13:54,880 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: a lot here about, Oh, America has the highest corporate 270 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 1: tax most people never paid the corporate tax rate, and 271 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: all of these are admitting that they are paying less 272 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: than many countries, all some of the most business friendly 273 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,439 Speaker 1: countries on earth. So just keep that in mind whenever 274 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:12,199 Speaker 1: people object. Which is the main revenue raiser in that bill, 275 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,120 Speaker 1: So that's like three hundred billion. Majority of that money 276 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: is going towards tax credits, both for electric vehicles, sustainable 277 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: home improvements, and energy neutral tax credits. I just want 278 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,520 Speaker 1: to emphasize that again, which is that while yes, it 279 00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: is very annoying to me that much of the nonprofit 280 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: industrial complex is obsessed with wind and with solar, you 281 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: can't gamify carbon emissions, and when so, nuclear will finally 282 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,520 Speaker 1: be able to be put to the test against all 283 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: the others. Geothermal included, biomass, etc. It really will just 284 00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 1: be a game in order to prove on paper you're like, hey, 285 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: our energy source is most efficient per capacity and more. Now, 286 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 1: of course we should look at the criteria and if 287 00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: there is a rigged criteria, and happily we'll call that out. 288 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,760 Speaker 1: But remember this is going to be across likely bipartisan 289 00:14:57,080 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: administrations and will be doled out on a basis to 290 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: really just try and lower carbon across the board. On 291 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 1: top of that, it actually, according to Rewiring America, which 292 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: is a nonprofit dedicated to electrification from what I could tell, 293 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: it's not one of those like hippie one, says that 294 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: most people will save eighteen hundred dollars a year on 295 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: their annual energy bill within five years. That's a lot 296 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 1: of money. I think that that's a significant benefit towards people, 297 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 1: and in general, look on the EV's thing. You know, 298 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: I'm a huge EV guy. I think they're awesome, and 299 00:15:26,880 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: I also recognize that given lithium batteries and all that, 300 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: it's never going to be we're probably not going to 301 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: live in a place where everybody can drive an electric vehicle. However, 302 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: a making it more affordable is actually a way in 303 00:15:38,920 --> 00:15:42,320 Speaker 1: order to instigate our companies in our country to get 304 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: our hands on the critical part of the supply chain 305 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 1: so we can start on sharing some of that which 306 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: is really only going to be bolstered by demand. But two, 307 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: as long as we do it both on the consumer 308 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: side with electric vehicles and making sure those evs aren't 309 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: powered by coal or by a natural gas or some 310 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: sort of high carbon emitting source and from something which 311 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: is higher capacity and which is low carbon, then it's 312 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 1: a better overall system. I mean, a thirty percent reduction 313 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: is huge. That's what people always point you. With natural gas, 314 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 1: it was fifty percent from coal. Well we can go 315 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: another fifty. That's dramatically not only good in terms of 316 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,280 Speaker 1: greenhouse gas emissions, climate change and all of that, but 317 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: bottom line, this will make better, good technology cheaper and 318 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: make the electricity that goes into those cheaper and more 319 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: sustainable as well, which I think these are all net positives. 320 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: And again, yeah, you're not spending one dime in deficit 321 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: spending to do any of this. No, they're actually one 322 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 1: of the requirements, which is you know, it's annoying to me, 323 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 1: but if you were going to get a deal with 324 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: Joe Manchin. There were going to be parts of it 325 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: that I wasn't going to like, but it actually reduces 326 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: the deficit. I think three hundred billion dollars that was 327 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,640 Speaker 1: a requirement for him in doing this deal. And I 328 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: do think it's worthwhile spending a few minutes on exactly 329 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: what is in this. Again, there are some things in 330 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: here that I could nitpick, like the ev tax credits 331 00:16:56,600 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 1: are means tested, which is annoying. Why not just do 332 00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: it forever? What? Okay? So that's one thing. There are 333 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,560 Speaker 1: some incentives in here, just to you know, for you 334 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: to understand what and we actually we have an article 335 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 1: about this we can put up on the screen that 336 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,160 Speaker 1: has some of the climate provisions here. Incentives including rebook 337 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: programs and tax credits that are meant to encourage home 338 00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:19,119 Speaker 1: improvements that would increase energy efficiency and use more clean 339 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 1: energy technologies. For example, the homes Rebate program would reward 340 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 1: eligible households for energy savings. People would typically receive two 341 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: thousand dollars if they make changes that save them twenty 342 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: percent or more on overall energy costs. Would encourage home 343 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:38,600 Speaker 1: electrification projects and efficiency upgrades, provide funding for owners and 344 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 1: sponsors of eligible affordable housing to be able to make 345 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,840 Speaker 1: their properties more energy and water efficient. So, as you 346 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:48,400 Speaker 1: were pointing out, all of this together amounts to significant 347 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,800 Speaker 1: rebate for sort of you know your average consumer out there, 348 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,159 Speaker 1: which is which is really significant. So you have that piece, 349 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,159 Speaker 1: you have the revenue raiser. Is this what they call 350 00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: the fifteen percent minimum book tax, which means they actually 351 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: look at their financial statements and base it off of 352 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: what they're telling their investors they're making versus the you 353 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: know games they play with regards to the IRS. Even 354 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: that is not quite as advertised because they can still 355 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,199 Speaker 1: take some tax credits because they were worried about the 356 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: energy efficiency tax credits being not as effective as they 357 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:21,240 Speaker 1: could if they couldn't still take this to So there's 358 00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: still some wiggle room there. But overall that's going to 359 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,560 Speaker 1: be a significant revenue raiser. You also have increased IRS 360 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:30,679 Speaker 1: tax enforcement. And then you have they claimed and this 361 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: one is also very different from advertised. They claim they're 362 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: closing the carried interest loophole. Not really true. They're modifying 363 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: make it harder for them to take to profit from 364 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 1: the carried interest loophole. This is this big tax break 365 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 1: giveaway that benefits private equity goules by and large. So 366 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 1: they're playing a little bit of games there. They're not 367 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: really closing the loophole. But ultimately, you know, this is 368 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 1: I guess better than leaving it as it is. Breaking 369 00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,960 Speaker 1: news this morning, which is that the Biden administration and 370 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:05,199 Speaker 1: the President himself announcing that a major terrorist target has 371 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 1: been taken out by drum strikes. Yeah, let's get to that. 372 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,879 Speaker 1: Pretty amazing news. Actually, so I'm on al Zawahari. Some 373 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: people may not know who he is. He was the 374 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 1: leader of al Qaeda after Samo bin Laden was killed 375 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:19,720 Speaker 1: back in two and twenty and eleven. Zawahi was the 376 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: founder of al Qaeda, basically one of the fathers of 377 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: radical Islam, a disciple of side Kutub. He was killed 378 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 1: in a drone strike and kabble. That's according to the 379 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: President who spoke late last night. Let's take a listen. 380 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:36,440 Speaker 1: He carved a trail of murder and violence against American citizens, 381 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: American service members, American diplomats, an American interest and since 382 00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: the United States delivered justice and bin Laden eleven years ago, 383 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 1: Sawahiri has been a leader of al Qaeda, the leader 384 00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: from hiding. He coordinated in al Qaeda's branches and all 385 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 1: around the world, including setting priorities for providing operational guy 386 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 1: tidans that called for and inspired attacks against US targets. 387 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:07,480 Speaker 1: He made videos, including the recent weeks, calling for his 388 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: followers to attack the United States and our allies. Now 389 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: justice has been delivered and this terrorist leader is no more. 390 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: Lots to say about this christ really interesting. I mean, 391 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 1: he was killed in downtown Cobble, so not a great 392 00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: look for the Taliban, who clearly were harboring her or 393 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 1: at least knew where he was. However, it also does 394 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 1: say a lot about our Afghan policy. It's August two, 395 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two. It's been almost twenty one years exactly 396 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:40,000 Speaker 1: since nine to eleven. zAware himself was somebody who rose 397 00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 1: to prominence in al Qaeda in the nineties and actually 398 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,480 Speaker 1: began his radical journey in the seventies and the eighties. 399 00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 1: I actually encouraged people. We were talking before the show. 400 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: A gen Z fan had reached out to me and 401 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 1: was like, I literally don't know who this guy is. 402 00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,439 Speaker 1: He's born after nine eleven. Yeah, which, granted these are 403 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,919 Speaker 1: like household names. There were household names to you and 404 00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: I I mean, but The Looming Tower, which I highly 405 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 1: recommend people go and read by Lawrence Wright, gives you 406 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,600 Speaker 1: a deep history into Zawahari and kind of his intellectual foundations. 407 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: There is no al Qaeda without I'm on Alsoari, there's 408 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 1: also no nine to eleven without him. A lot of 409 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 1: the directed attacks against the United States and the ideology 410 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: underpinning bin Ladenism and more is solely his responsibility. On 411 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: the Afghan policy, it's very interesting. So first of all, 412 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: I was told that it was impossible for the US 413 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,679 Speaker 1: to conduct counter terror and strikes in Afghanistan without troops 414 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,400 Speaker 1: on the ground. Well not only I mean, look from 415 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,439 Speaker 1: what we know about this drone strike so far, and 416 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 1: it's not like we have a great track record in Afghanistan. 417 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: This drone strike literally only killed him and two Taliban 418 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 1: senior operatives in a specific room in this house in Kabble. 419 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,640 Speaker 1: So clearly there are assets on the ground that we're 420 00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: helping coordinate this. Again, this is a official narrative. From 421 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: what I can tell, it seems to be true and 422 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 1: from pictures that were taken in the downtown area of Kabble. 423 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: But also this is being used by some Neo khn 424 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:02,560 Speaker 1: Hawks as justification for why we should still be in Afghanistan, 425 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,240 Speaker 1: as if the previous status quo, where he was obviously 426 00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 1: living in Pakistan and we couldn't do anything about it, 427 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: was somehow preferable. So that's just my immediate reaction to this. 428 00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: The Afghan part I think is really important. First of all, 429 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: I'm going to reserve judgment if this drone strike was 430 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,640 Speaker 1: actually executed in the manner that the administration has said, 431 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: because they've been caught just blatantly lying for about drones 432 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: strikes and what the civilian collateral damage was. So I'm 433 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: not taking their word for anything on that. We'll wait 434 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 1: for independent evidence to come out on that piece. That's 435 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,679 Speaker 1: number one. Number two, it really says a lot about 436 00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:38,399 Speaker 1: our failed twenty year war in Afghanistan that we're actually 437 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,159 Speaker 1: able to take this guy out after we leave. That's crazy. 438 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 1: I mean that actually to your point about like apparently 439 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 1: when we were there and he's in Pakistan, couldn't do 440 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,560 Speaker 1: anything but now and also you know, under the Taliban, 441 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 1: he clearly felt like he could live in downtown Kbble, 442 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:55,719 Speaker 1: no big deal and it was going to be fine. 443 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,960 Speaker 1: So quite a brazen act from him. But it does 444 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: call into question what exactly we were doing in Afghanistan 445 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: for all of these years, because remember, while there was 446 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 1: massive mission creep and ultimately, you know, the mission ended 447 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 1: up being no one could really even explain what the 448 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,399 Speaker 1: mission was, but it had clearly grown from the beginning 449 00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:18,200 Speaker 1: origins of why we went there. But the whole idea 450 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: of going into Afghanistan was to avenge nine to eleven, 451 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: bring the perpetrators to justice. And so if it took 452 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:29,879 Speaker 1: us leaving Afghanistan to actually accomplish that goal, you know, 453 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 1: again raise us some serious questions about what the hell 454 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: we were doing there all of these years. Not to 455 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: mention it again underscores the failure of the policy that 456 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: the minute we leave, the Taliban feels perfectly comfortable to 457 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,640 Speaker 1: harbor the very people that you know, we told them 458 00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: and they had allegedly agreed not to harbor. So it 459 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,840 Speaker 1: shows you how little we accomplished during those years other 460 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: than you know, devastating the civilian population, our own loss 461 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: of life, massive massive space spending, and propping up the 462 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: worst ghouls around the Beltway in terms of the military 463 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 1: industrial complex. But you know, there was also there was 464 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 1: a piece from a Spencer Ackerman at his newsletter Forever Wars, 465 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 1: where he writes about Okay, so Biden presents this as 466 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,119 Speaker 1: this is the you know, the latest innovation in the 467 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: War on Terror, and this is sort of a proof 468 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 1: of concept, and he says, like Obama with Osama bin Laden, 469 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 1: Biden did not portray Zawahari's death as an end to 470 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,199 Speaker 1: the War on Terror, but instead is a kind of 471 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 1: a proof of concept. But what did it prove and 472 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: what is the concept? Because again, if the whole idea 473 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 1: of the War on Terror was to get the guys 474 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,520 Speaker 1: who you know, murdered and massacred our civilians, our citizens 475 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 1: on nine to eleven, okay, you've done it. You got 476 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: Osama bin Laan. Zawahari was arguably even more responsible for 477 00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,199 Speaker 1: nine to eleven in terms of being the mastermind than 478 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 1: Osaman bin Laden. The war on Terror has always been 479 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,840 Speaker 1: used by Republican and Democratic presidence Bush, Obama, Trump, now 480 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: Biden to basically have carte blanche to wage war and 481 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: do whatever illegal actions and drone strikes they want all 482 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: over the world with no end in sight. And so 483 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: this would be a clear time to say, hey, guys, 484 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: we did it. The original goals have now been accomplished. 485 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,680 Speaker 1: Here's what we're transitioning to. But of course that's never 486 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: what they're interested in doing. Instead, this is seen as 487 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:25,719 Speaker 1: a beginning rather than of an end. Yeah, I mean 488 00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: it's really like I said, twenty one years in order 489 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: to kill somebody should have been dead. Twenty one years ago. 490 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 1: I mean we invaded Afghanistan. I want to say October 491 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,239 Speaker 1: of two thousand and one, so two months more than 492 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:40,920 Speaker 1: a month, I think a month and a half after 493 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,440 Speaker 1: nine to eleven is when the first US troops were 494 00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 1: actually on the ground there. The Battle of Tora Bora 495 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,239 Speaker 1: was shortly afterwards, where we clearly should have gone in 496 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 1: and risked really everything. And I'm being honest here, like 497 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:57,120 Speaker 1: many American soldiers would have died, probably a lot less 498 00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,679 Speaker 1: though that died in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, and 499 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 1: that was part of the reason that we didn't end 500 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,439 Speaker 1: up going for it. But if we had done so, 501 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,679 Speaker 1: Bin Laden and Zawahari would be dead, and many of 502 00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: the conversations and ills that we have in our society 503 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,439 Speaker 1: today really would just not exist. So it is a 504 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: massive failure for the war on Terror that it took 505 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: twenty one years in order to kill Zuahari. It also 506 00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,479 Speaker 1: calls into a major question all of our entire twenty 507 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,439 Speaker 1: year experience in Afghanistan. What was the point that it 508 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,520 Speaker 1: took us leaving for us to be able to kill him? 509 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,080 Speaker 1: Everybody knew he was living in Pakistan. Everyone nobody wanted 510 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 1: to risk another bin laden situation where you going into 511 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 1: the dead of night and almost risk getting US troops 512 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,160 Speaker 1: getting shot by Pakistani fighter jets. That's the only reason 513 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 1: we didn't kill him. We knew exactly where it was. 514 00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:41,639 Speaker 1: Everybody knows that. So then it took us leaving for 515 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,719 Speaker 1: him to come back, and then we're able to kill 516 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 1: him this drone strike. So anyway, you know, lots of 517 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: questions about forever war, about the purpose of what the 518 00:26:48,560 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: hell we've been doing for the last twenty years. I mean, look, 519 00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: I'm glad he's dead. I'm glad he's dead ahead of 520 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 1: the nine to eleven anniversary. I hope it gives some 521 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 1: closure to the people who are families. You know, KSM 522 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 1: is the last one who's live and he's in Guantanamo Bay. 523 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: But it is, you know, a fascinating closure on her history. 524 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,880 Speaker 1: I was talking about the gen Z comment many people 525 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: that have no idea who this guy is, and that's 526 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 1: that's really bad because it also they had no political 527 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 1: intellectual buy in because they didn't have to live with 528 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 1: what you and I did the growing up of we 529 00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:19,560 Speaker 1: all knew, you know, the leaders of al Qaeda, and 530 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:21,480 Speaker 1: you know, every time al Qaida number three or whatever 531 00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: was captured, it was like a big piece of news. 532 00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,280 Speaker 1: But that that's long gone in our history. So waiting 533 00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 1: so long for these things to happen is it's actually 534 00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: very bad from just from a societal point of view. 535 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 1: I actually don't think it's a bad thing that gen 536 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:37,400 Speaker 1: Z doesn't have this like direct formative experience that we had, 537 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: you know, you as a very young person and me. 538 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: You know, this was when I was in college that 539 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: all of this started, and so it's been all of 540 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 1: my adult life. Because just like millennials have a different 541 00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:55,879 Speaker 1: and fresh and less like jaded and propagandized view of 542 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,800 Speaker 1: the Cold War, gen Z has a sort of fresh, 543 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:04,119 Speaker 1: arms length distance perspective on the war on terror, on 544 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,240 Speaker 1: a rock, on Afghanistan, on the Middle East in general. 545 00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: And I don't actually think that that's a bad thing, 546 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,359 Speaker 1: because it's hard to know when you're coming up in 547 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: that era, how much of the media that you're consuming 548 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 1: is actually propaganda? Like it's it. Even try as you 549 00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,480 Speaker 1: might to have a lot of skepticism and not just 550 00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: sort of imbibe whatever the cultural narrative is, it's impossible 551 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,440 Speaker 1: to escape that unless you just weren't subjected to it 552 00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 1: from the beginning. So I don't think that's a bad thing, 553 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean, it's a moment to reflect on 554 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,440 Speaker 1: the failures of across multiple administrations, of the lies that 555 00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: were told to the American people about what exactly we 556 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,320 Speaker 1: were doing in these countries. I think it's also a 557 00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,400 Speaker 1: moment to reflect on our continued policy visa eas Saudi Arabia, 558 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: which has brought Biden right back to the table with 559 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: them in a way that he said he wasn't going 560 00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: to be. So our policy with regards to the Middle 561 00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:58,440 Speaker 1: least hasn't really changed over all of these many years, 562 00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,080 Speaker 1: And perhaps most importantly, to ask what does this mean 563 00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 1: in terms of where we're going now and what powers 564 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 1: we continue to allow these administrations to hold to get 565 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 1: us into wars without even you know, they're having to 566 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: be a war declared. We've covered here many times the 567 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: way that this has been used to justify troops on 568 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,600 Speaker 1: the ground in places that you didn't vote for it. 569 00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,720 Speaker 1: There was no public debate about that secret that we 570 00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 1: don't even know about half of the things that the 571 00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: military is up to around the world right now. So 572 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: it's ultimately, you know, very significant in thinking about the 573 00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 1: trajectory of all of this policy and where it's going 574 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 1: from here. I would hope it's a bookend like Spencer Wrights, 575 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 1: but unfortunately it's probably it's not. Okay, that's an opening 576 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 1: obviously to what's happening right now. The major story across 577 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,760 Speaker 1: the globe Nancy Pelosi and her visit to Taiwan. Her 578 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 1: jet is literally in the air as we speak, military 579 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 1: jet flying over the South Pacific, and she apparently will 580 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: be escorted by US military planes into Taiwan along with 581 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:58,000 Speaker 1: Taiwan's air defense for so, let's go and put this 582 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 1: up there on the screen from the Financial Times, very 583 00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,280 Speaker 1: significant reporting. They were the first to not only officially 584 00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 1: confirm that Nancy Pelosi will visit Taiwan, but she will 585 00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,560 Speaker 1: be meeting with the Taiwanese president on Wednesday. Remember, they're 586 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 1: significantly ahead of us in terms of timing, so it's 587 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:14,680 Speaker 1: a little bit off in terms of the dates and 588 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: what we're referring to. Now, this is an extraordinarily significant visit. 589 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: Just to lay out, Nancy Pelosi is the most senior 590 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:24,560 Speaker 1: US official to visit Taiwan in the last twenty five years. 591 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:27,480 Speaker 1: The last time that a US speaker visited Taiwan was 592 00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety seven when Nut Gingrich went over there. Now 593 00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,240 Speaker 1: a lot has changed in the last twenty five years. 594 00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 1: China has been saying that this is an extraordinarily escalatory 595 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 1: move on behalf of the United States, and it's caused 596 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: a real diplomatic, frankly problem for the Biden administration because 597 00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 1: really what it is is that let's put this on 598 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,680 Speaker 1: the screen. After the Pelosi visit was announced, you'll recall, 599 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,200 Speaker 1: shortly before Biden went ahead and got COVID, he was 600 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 1: asked on the rope line at the White House and 601 00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 1: he said that the military believes it's quote not a 602 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: good idea for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan 603 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,520 Speaker 1: at the moment that also came this is in the 604 00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: Financial Times piece that Jake Sullivan and other senior US 605 00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 1: military officials, along with the Intel community actually visited Pelosi 606 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 1: in order to try and dissuade her from visiting Taiwan, saying, listen, 607 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,640 Speaker 1: it's a bad time right now. What's happening is that, 608 00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,000 Speaker 1: and I think the audience should know this as well. 609 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: China is just because it's an authoritarian country does not 610 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 1: mean they don't have domestic politics. COVID zero was a 611 00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: nightmare and a disaster for a significant part of the 612 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: Chinese population. Just like we had lockdown problems, they had 613 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 1: lockdown problems. Their economy is also in turmoil. They're having 614 00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: literal riots in the streets over people who are rioting 615 00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 1: over the fact that they're mortgages. They're trying to pay 616 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,760 Speaker 1: their mortgages, but buildings aren't being built. We talked previously 617 00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 1: about Evergrand and the Chinese real estate bubble. That has 618 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: a problem. It's difficult for us to comprehend just how 619 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,560 Speaker 1: precarious things are right now in China. They also have 620 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,080 Speaker 1: rolling energy blackouts. Beijing has had significant problems. So anyway, 621 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 1: the domestic populace in China is not one hundred percent 622 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: happy with the regime of Shishiping. At the same time, 623 00:32:08,560 --> 00:32:11,280 Speaker 1: right now is a very critical time for the CCP 624 00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,120 Speaker 1: and for she specifically, we are leading up to a 625 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,800 Speaker 1: fall meeting in when G is going to declare for 626 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: either historic third term or be made president for life. 627 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:25,560 Speaker 1: So G has to pacify significant parts and political constituencies 628 00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 1: within the Chinese Communist Party. People here may not be 629 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,800 Speaker 1: able to get it, but think back to the Soviet Union. Yes, 630 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union was an authoritarian regime, but you still 631 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,320 Speaker 1: have domestic politics as how they exist of the military, 632 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 1: the KGB, different constituencies within the pollit Bureau. That is 633 00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 1: what the CCP is like today. You don't just you know, 634 00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,400 Speaker 1: just because you're the leader doesn't mean that you answer 635 00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 1: to nobody. There are different power centers within these different regimes. 636 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,920 Speaker 1: So she has to look at and pacify those. Now. 637 00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:59,800 Speaker 1: The difference too is that remember this is China. They 638 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,520 Speaker 1: have a different system of government. So they view this 639 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,560 Speaker 1: not as a visit by Nancy Pelosi in open defiance 640 00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:09,000 Speaker 1: as a coequal branch of government of the President of 641 00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:12,479 Speaker 1: the United States. They view this as a clear message 642 00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 1: by the Biden administration and are saying, listen, if this 643 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 1: was John Bahner or GOP speaker, we would hate it, 644 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,480 Speaker 1: but we maybe get it. But she's in your party. 645 00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,360 Speaker 1: They refuse to believe that Pelosi is coming here in 646 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,680 Speaker 1: defiance of President Biden, of the US military. They simply 647 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,680 Speaker 1: they don't believe that such a system could even exist. 648 00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 1: And actually the White House even acknowledged that yesterday. Let's 649 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen. John Kirby is 650 00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:43,200 Speaker 1: a Pentagon spokesperson assuming the podium saying he quote made clear. 651 00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,160 Speaker 1: Congress is an independent branch of government and Speaker Pelosi 652 00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:50,560 Speaker 1: makes her own decisions. That was in a phone call 653 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 1: that lasted over two and a half hours between President 654 00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:56,600 Speaker 1: She and Biden just a couple of days ago. So 655 00:33:57,120 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 1: major diplomatic crisis on our front, and the administration crystal 656 00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: is reiterating over and over again. They're like, listen, and 657 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:08,719 Speaker 1: this is an independent branch of government. It's up to 658 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,480 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi. Nothing about our Taiwan policy has changed. So 659 00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and take a listen to that. We 660 00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 1: have been clear from the very beginning that she will 661 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,480 Speaker 1: make her own decisions and that Congress is an independent 662 00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 1: branch of government. Our constitution embeds the separation of powers. 663 00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,719 Speaker 1: This is well known to the PRC given our more 664 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,239 Speaker 1: than four decades of diplomatic relations. The speaker has the 665 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,920 Speaker 1: right to visit Taiwan, and a Speaker of the House 666 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 1: has visited Taiwan before without incident, as have many members 667 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,200 Speaker 1: of Congress, including this year, the world has seen in 668 00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 1: the United States government be very clear that nothing has changed, 669 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,200 Speaker 1: nothing has changed about our One China policy, which is 670 00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 1: of course guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, the three 671 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,799 Speaker 1: Joint US PRC Communicats, and the six Assurances repeatedly said 672 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,319 Speaker 1: that we oppose any ulateral changes to this. That as 673 00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:02,880 Speaker 1: quote from either side. We have said that we do 674 00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:06,520 Speaker 1: not support Taiwan independence, and we have said that we 675 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:13,560 Speaker 1: expect cross trade differences to be resolved by peaceful means. So, 676 00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,480 Speaker 1: first of all, when they trot John Kirby out, they're 677 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 1: worried because they don't want to leave it up to 678 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 1: Korean John Pierre. They want to be extremely clear in 679 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,319 Speaker 1: our policy. But regardless, this is being seen and we're 680 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:28,440 Speaker 1: about to get to this as an extraordinarily escatory move 681 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,839 Speaker 1: on behalf of the CCP. And you know, just Chris, 682 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: I just want to say, I think the biggest problem 683 00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 1: with this is Nancy Pelosi going here to Taiwan has 684 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,759 Speaker 1: nothing to do with principle. This is about her wanting 685 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,279 Speaker 1: to quote cement her legacy before the waiting days of 686 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:46,880 Speaker 1: her speakership, because you knows she's not going to be 687 00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 1: speaker anymore, and she enjoys being feted as a head 688 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:51,920 Speaker 1: of state. That's why she's always abroad on a military 689 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:53,800 Speaker 1: plane going to go meet the Pope and the Vatican 690 00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 1: or whatever. Yeah, so that my biggest problem with this. 691 00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 1: There's no strategy behind this. You are literally escalating tensions 692 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: with a newnuclear arm power and arguably the world's only 693 00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: other superpower for your own vanity when the President of 694 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,880 Speaker 1: the United States and the military don't want you to go. 695 00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:11,600 Speaker 1: So it's a trip of vanity, and look, it could 696 00:36:11,680 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: cause it could cause some serious problems. I really yeah. Anyway, go, 697 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: that's one explanation. I mean, I can't say one hundred 698 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,719 Speaker 1: percent that the Chinese are wrong here because it is 699 00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:25,279 Speaker 1: astonishing to see the speaker just an open defiance of 700 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:29,400 Speaker 1: the president who is the leader of the Democratic Party. 701 00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:32,759 Speaker 1: So I'm not one hundred percent sold on their narrative like, oh, 702 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:34,880 Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan when we don't want her to go, etcetera, 703 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:37,440 Speaker 1: et cetera. Because part of the context here is you 704 00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:41,160 Speaker 1: also have to remember that Biden has multiple times, not 705 00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 1: just one slip up, but multiple times said directly that 706 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:50,960 Speaker 1: the US would intervene militarily if China invaded Taiwan, which 707 00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:54,600 Speaker 1: is which is a different policy than the strategic ambiguity 708 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:58,279 Speaker 1: that has long been the sort of diplomatic posture for years, 709 00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 1: for decades at this point. So when I look at that, 710 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 1: and again he was pressed on it, and he was 711 00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,640 Speaker 1: as clear as he could be before then walking it back. 712 00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 1: The White House walked it back. He never walked it back, 713 00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 1: so exactly, that's right. So when you hear that rhetoric 714 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:16,080 Speaker 1: from the President of the United States, and then you 715 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,880 Speaker 1: see the Speaker of the House, who is of his 716 00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,800 Speaker 1: same party, taking this trip very intentionally and in a 717 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,760 Speaker 1: very provocative way, Like, ultimately China is responsible for Chinese 718 00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,080 Speaker 1: actions if they weren't invade Taiwan or do anything else 719 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:33,919 Speaker 1: that was esculatory, but this is a very provocative move. 720 00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,920 Speaker 1: I don't blame them for looking at that and assuming 721 00:37:37,120 --> 00:37:40,359 Speaker 1: that this is backed and sanctioned by the Biden administration. 722 00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,800 Speaker 1: And one potential explanation is this is Nancy Pelosi on 723 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,959 Speaker 1: a vanity tour, and she has long been a major 724 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 1: supporter of Taiwan and been very provocative in her actions 725 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,080 Speaker 1: with regards to that. But another explanation is, actually the 726 00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,840 Speaker 1: Biden administration does want this and is okay with it. 727 00:37:55,920 --> 00:38:00,520 Speaker 1: I don't think it's crazy to ultimately think that way. 728 00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:06,640 Speaker 1: It's a disaster, it's an utter. It's just an unnecessary provocation, 729 00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:10,759 Speaker 1: creating a potential crisis for literally no reason, with no 730 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: clear strategy behind it. I thought Michael Tracy made a 731 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,840 Speaker 1: good point. He says, simultaneous knife edge brinksmanship with multiple 732 00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:21,800 Speaker 1: nuclear arm powers anyone's idea of a rational foreign policy, 733 00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,400 Speaker 1: because that's the other context is it's not like we 734 00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:26,960 Speaker 1: can focus all our energy and attention on this region 735 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,440 Speaker 1: of the world. Personally, I think the Chips Act and 736 00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:35,160 Speaker 1: reshoring critical supply lines, that to me, is the best 737 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:40,320 Speaker 1: China policy, not these prevocative escalatory moves. And you know 738 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:43,439 Speaker 1: I don't support them in general, but I especially extra 739 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 1: don't support them when we're already engaged in a proxy 740 00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,560 Speaker 1: war with a nuclear armed superpower. So this is as 741 00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,320 Speaker 1: foolish as it can get. The only just I have 742 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:56,560 Speaker 1: yet to see a single smart justification of this that 743 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,000 Speaker 1: doesn't just resort to like we got to be strong 744 00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,759 Speaker 1: kind of us. That really is utterly meaningless nonsense. The 745 00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,040 Speaker 1: only justification for it is now that she has done 746 00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,239 Speaker 1: such a foolish move, she can't back down as a 747 00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,440 Speaker 1: resulted Beijing policy, which is I think, like personally, I'm 748 00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 1: gonna bet on the Pelosi ego every time. I mean, 749 00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:14,640 Speaker 1: I'm not sure exactly which is worse her being a 750 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,360 Speaker 1: narcissist or this being some sanctioned planned by the Biden administration. 751 00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 1: As we say, almost does it matter because of how 752 00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,480 Speaker 1: the Chinese exactly And that's actually look, we're not the 753 00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,839 Speaker 1: ones ultimately who get to set the narrative. They are 754 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,200 Speaker 1: responsible also for their actions. We should keep in mind 755 00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,160 Speaker 1: how they view the world, even if you think it's unjust. 756 00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:31,800 Speaker 1: And that's actually part of the issue, which is that 757 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,360 Speaker 1: in a give and take of foreign relations, you always 758 00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 1: have to consider what does the other person think in 759 00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,320 Speaker 1: their cultural context and their political moment. And more so, 760 00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:41,840 Speaker 1: this comes at a very bad time Pelosi. If it 761 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:43,800 Speaker 1: is true that the administration asked her not to go 762 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 1: and she decided to go anyway in the West military, 763 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 1: I do tend to believe that, just because when is 764 00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:50,960 Speaker 1: the last time you saw that even the military and 765 00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,080 Speaker 1: people in that being like, yeah, this is not so 766 00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 1: good of an idea that Intel community and others coming 767 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,440 Speaker 1: out and leaking just exactly giving the context of she 768 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:03,200 Speaker 1: is in a very precarious domestic situation right now, you know, 769 00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:06,160 Speaker 1: going specifically at this moment. And it's not just you 770 00:40:06,320 --> 00:40:08,680 Speaker 1: and I who are saying this many you know, even 771 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,760 Speaker 1: mainstream people like Thomas Friedman has a column out today 772 00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:14,759 Speaker 1: in the New York Times saying that this is a 773 00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:19,120 Speaker 1: disastrous move, citing exactly this reason. Ukraine is already unstable, 774 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:22,120 Speaker 1: We're already embroiled in this war over there. Also, if 775 00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,200 Speaker 1: you think the Europeans are going to step up when 776 00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:27,120 Speaker 1: they could barely defend their own backyard in order to 777 00:40:27,200 --> 00:40:30,120 Speaker 1: back up our policy in Taiwan, you're smoking something. They 778 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 1: don't even have enough money in order to send to Ukraine, 779 00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:35,760 Speaker 1: on top of the economic damage that they've already suffered 780 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:39,200 Speaker 1: as a result of sanctions policy. So domestic timing Forji 781 00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,640 Speaker 1: is also really important that that we we're pointing to, 782 00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,600 Speaker 1: because even people who I really disagree with on a 783 00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,120 Speaker 1: lot of China policy are way more hawkish than I am. 784 00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:50,440 Speaker 1: I've seen are like I'm okay, with this visit, but 785 00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,959 Speaker 1: not now, like this is like the worst possible time 786 00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:56,680 Speaker 1: that you could be doing this, not only because we're 787 00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:59,560 Speaker 1: embroiled in Ukraine in this proxy war with Russia, but 788 00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:03,920 Speaker 1: also so because of the domestic political considerations for gi 789 00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,120 Speaker 1: and you know, as potentially hawkish as he is and 790 00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,919 Speaker 1: sort of aggressive as he is, there are other people 791 00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:13,080 Speaker 1: in the party who would like him to go away 792 00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 1: a lot further a lot, So this is a great 793 00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:17,520 Speaker 1: out for him as well. As you point to, there 794 00:41:17,560 --> 00:41:21,200 Speaker 1: are so many domestic issues right now that he's having 795 00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:24,000 Speaker 1: to deal with. This gives him a great sort of 796 00:41:24,200 --> 00:41:28,080 Speaker 1: rally around the flag distraction to distract from some of 797 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:32,240 Speaker 1: those families on COVID, on the crashing housing market and inflation, 798 00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:35,200 Speaker 1: and the other economic troubles that China is facing right now. 799 00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,279 Speaker 1: Let's go ahead move on to the Chinese piece. As 800 00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,360 Speaker 1: we've alluded to some significant rhetoric coming out of the 801 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,360 Speaker 1: Chinese Communist Party. Is it real. We're not going to 802 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,839 Speaker 1: find out until she lands, and possibly in the weeks 803 00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:49,040 Speaker 1: or months afterwards, But this is a direct tweet from 804 00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:52,160 Speaker 1: the US ambassador or for the Chinese ambassador to the 805 00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,400 Speaker 1: United States, Quing Gong let's gohead and put this up 806 00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:56,920 Speaker 1: there on the screen. Here's what he tweets. This is 807 00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:00,000 Speaker 1: the People's Liberation Army, the guardian of the Chinese people 808 00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:02,359 Speaker 1: for ninety five years, who will not sit idly by 809 00:42:02,760 --> 00:42:06,799 Speaker 1: when it comes to safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity. 810 00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:08,480 Speaker 1: Let's put the next one up here. This is from 811 00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,920 Speaker 1: a Global Times commentator. This matters Global Times, for those 812 00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,399 Speaker 1: who don't know, is almost like the most right wing 813 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:19,120 Speaker 1: pro military pro CCP English arm It's a way of 814 00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:21,879 Speaker 1: viewing what the most hawkish people in China are saying, 815 00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,040 Speaker 1: and what they're thinking is directly sanctioned by the Chinese 816 00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,800 Speaker 1: Communist Party. Here's what he says, quote, let her go 817 00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:30,680 Speaker 1: to Taiwan, but pray before departure, wish herself a safe journey, 818 00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,759 Speaker 1: and wish herself not to be defined by history as 819 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,200 Speaker 1: a sinner who starts a spiral of escalation process expanding 820 00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:40,040 Speaker 1: military frictions to a large scale war in the Taiwan Strait, 821 00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:43,840 Speaker 1: so specifically making a threat there on the Taiwan Strait. 822 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:46,600 Speaker 1: I think some contexts here is also necessary for people 823 00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:50,080 Speaker 1: to understand there have been three Taiwan straight crises. The 824 00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:53,960 Speaker 1: first two were in the nineteen fifties. This was regarding 825 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:57,560 Speaker 1: the independence of Taiwan the so called Republic of China 826 00:42:57,600 --> 00:42:59,800 Speaker 1: at a time when there was frozen relations between the 827 00:42:59,880 --> 00:43:02,640 Speaker 1: U and the People's Republic of China. Well, we almost 828 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,560 Speaker 1: came to a nuclear confrontation in nineteen fifty eight over 829 00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:08,560 Speaker 1: the Second Taiwan Straight Crisis, when there was shelling and 830 00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 1: disputes over a specific island. Many people in the Eisenhower 831 00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:14,360 Speaker 1: administration actually said, that's one of the closest that we 832 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,279 Speaker 1: ever came to the reuse of nuclear weapons after the 833 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,040 Speaker 1: Korean War. The third one happened in the nineteen nineties 834 00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:26,439 Speaker 1: and happened right ahead of Taiwan's first free election where 835 00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,440 Speaker 1: they really embraced democracy and they democratically elected a president. 836 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:34,440 Speaker 1: So that was whenever missiles were fired into the Taiwan Strait. 837 00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:38,080 Speaker 1: After actually kind of a similar fracas in US policy. 838 00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,360 Speaker 1: So what happened is is that at the time the 839 00:43:40,719 --> 00:43:44,080 Speaker 1: Taiwani's president attended Cornell Law School. He was coming to 840 00:43:44,160 --> 00:43:46,480 Speaker 1: the US in order to give a speech to Cornell. 841 00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:49,879 Speaker 1: So anyway, he landed in Honolulu, and at the time, 842 00:43:49,960 --> 00:43:52,760 Speaker 1: the Clinton administration did not want to give him a visa, 843 00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,919 Speaker 1: so they made him actually sleep on the plane because 844 00:43:54,920 --> 00:43:57,400 Speaker 1: they knew it was going to it was going to 845 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,960 Speaker 1: ignite a major global conf flagration. Possibly. Well, then what 846 00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,880 Speaker 1: happened is that US Congress stepped in and said, no, 847 00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,360 Speaker 1: we're going to give him a visa. They compelled a resolution. 848 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:09,520 Speaker 1: The State Department also issued him with visa. The Room 849 00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,080 Speaker 1: led Congress of this. Yeah, but it was a unanimous vote, 850 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,200 Speaker 1: so it's not like anybody dissented. So anyway, this was 851 00:44:14,239 --> 00:44:16,640 Speaker 1: in the nineties. Well, as a result of that change 852 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,319 Speaker 1: in the flip and policy, that is ultimately what led, 853 00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,000 Speaker 1: in addition to the new election in Taiwan, to the 854 00:44:22,160 --> 00:44:24,520 Speaker 1: shelling and the missiles that were fired directly into the 855 00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,080 Speaker 1: Taiwan straight that's the last major Taiwan crisis that we've had. 856 00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:30,120 Speaker 1: I would be remiss if I didn't point out the 857 00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:34,160 Speaker 1: People's Liberation Army is significantly more powerful today than it 858 00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,759 Speaker 1: was in nineteen ninety four. China in general is significantly 859 00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,040 Speaker 1: more powerful. But this is why some of the comparisons 860 00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:42,080 Speaker 1: drive me crazy, which is that nineteen ninety seven, the 861 00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,120 Speaker 1: last time Speaker Gingrich went over there, it resulted actually 862 00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:48,200 Speaker 1: in the most major display of US force post Vietnam. 863 00:44:48,320 --> 00:44:51,080 Speaker 1: We put a carrier through the Taiwan straight all this 864 00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,759 Speaker 1: US military that was the unipolar moment. We were the 865 00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,680 Speaker 1: single most powerful military entity on the globe. And it 866 00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:01,640 Speaker 1: was also before Iraq, before Afghanistan, and it was also 867 00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:06,600 Speaker 1: before the PLA had. I mean, their capabilities from today 868 00:45:07,000 --> 00:45:10,640 Speaker 1: to the nineteen ninety seven is like comparing the US 869 00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,279 Speaker 1: military of today to like pre World War One. It 870 00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:17,200 Speaker 1: really is that drastic in terms of their capabilities, their 871 00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:21,840 Speaker 1: fifth generation fighters, their ability to wage war, naval power, 872 00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,719 Speaker 1: and more. I'm not saying that they're equivalent, but they're 873 00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:28,320 Speaker 1: significantly more powerful and have a lot more economic power 874 00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:31,160 Speaker 1: also and leverage over the United States. So that is 875 00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,680 Speaker 1: why the rhetoric and all of that is a lot hotter. 876 00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,200 Speaker 1: Right now, Let's throw this next one up there on 877 00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,800 Speaker 1: the screen from Politico, which is that leaving for Asia 878 00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:44,320 Speaker 1: amid these Chinese threats over the Taiwan stop. And this 879 00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:46,400 Speaker 1: actually gets into a little bit more of the reporting 880 00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,120 Speaker 1: we were talking about again, Chris, I know that you're skeptical, 881 00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,480 Speaker 1: but I genuinely do believe that she is such an 882 00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:55,200 Speaker 1: egotist that she does disregard the warnings from the US 883 00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:59,120 Speaker 1: intelligence community, from the Biden administration and others. And the 884 00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,520 Speaker 1: reason why I think this stuff matters is that, look, 885 00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 1: Nancy Pelosi, at the end of the day, does not 886 00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,480 Speaker 1: have to deal with the actual consequences of her visit. 887 00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:08,919 Speaker 1: If the consequence of her visit are going to fall 888 00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,600 Speaker 1: on the President who is in charge of foreign affairs 889 00:46:11,880 --> 00:46:14,959 Speaker 1: and the US military, and those people are very clear, 890 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,520 Speaker 1: They're like, we do not want you to go for 891 00:46:17,719 --> 00:46:20,120 Speaker 1: many of the reasons that we laid out in our 892 00:46:20,200 --> 00:46:23,040 Speaker 1: first block. But at this point, the trip is happening, 893 00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,880 Speaker 1: and it is one of those things where the fallout 894 00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,959 Speaker 1: from it it could range from this is just China talking. 895 00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:30,920 Speaker 1: That's one way of reading it, which is they have 896 00:46:31,040 --> 00:46:34,560 Speaker 1: to say face domestically, ramp up the rhetoric. Maybe they 897 00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:38,120 Speaker 1: will do something or the other. But the scarier is 898 00:46:38,400 --> 00:46:40,399 Speaker 1: some of the options laid out by the White House. 899 00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:44,160 Speaker 1: Listen specifically here to John Kirby about how a fourth 900 00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:47,120 Speaker 1: Taiwan straight crisis might play out. And again this is 901 00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,200 Speaker 1: being acknowledged from the White House podium. Let's take a listen. 902 00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,920 Speaker 1: Over the weekend, even before Speaker Pelosi arrived in the region, 903 00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:59,320 Speaker 1: China conducted a live fire exercise. China appears to be 904 00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:02,520 Speaker 1: positioning itself to potentially take further steps in the coming 905 00:47:02,600 --> 00:47:08,120 Speaker 1: days and perhaps over longer time horizons. These potential steps 906 00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:12,040 Speaker 1: from China could include military provocations such as firing missiles 907 00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:15,799 Speaker 1: in the Taiwan Straight or around Taiwan, operations that break 908 00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,879 Speaker 1: historical norms, such as large scale air entry into Taiwan's 909 00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,920 Speaker 1: Air Defense Identification Zone ages. I think you all know 910 00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:27,279 Speaker 1: that acronym air or naval activities that cross the Median line, 911 00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:32,160 Speaker 1: and military exercises that could be highly publicized. So he's 912 00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:36,560 Speaker 1: talking specifically about military exercises being highly publicized, about missiles 913 00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,280 Speaker 1: being fired. Any missile that gets fired into the Taiwan 914 00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,160 Speaker 1: Straight is a fourth Taiwan crisis. Taiwan Straight crisis is 915 00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,200 Speaker 1: no way around it, and that would almost certainly precipitate 916 00:47:45,360 --> 00:47:48,920 Speaker 1: some US action. And even if it's not us, remember 917 00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,320 Speaker 1: we're not the only ones who live there. Are in Asia? 918 00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,080 Speaker 1: I mean, the Japanese defense forces aren't very high alert. 919 00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:57,680 Speaker 1: The Singaporeans are very worried about what's happening right now. 920 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,120 Speaker 1: The South Koreans as well, they are. If if you 921 00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,800 Speaker 1: think you know WEP have hawks, you should go and 922 00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,960 Speaker 1: listen to some Japanese rhetoric in Japan, you know, specifically 923 00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:09,319 Speaker 1: in this moment postionso Abe Abbe himself was somebody who 924 00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,480 Speaker 1: was very pro Taiwan and also very anti China, pro 925 00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,120 Speaker 1: building up the forces. So it is a precarious situation 926 00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:22,040 Speaker 1: in Asia which is precipitated by Pelosi wanting to go 927 00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:25,360 Speaker 1: over there lacking any strategy, and we just have to 928 00:48:25,480 --> 00:48:28,279 Speaker 1: look at US policy. It's not in a vacuum. It's 929 00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:30,839 Speaker 1: not just about like, oh, you know, people were heads 930 00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,920 Speaker 1: of democracies visit each other. It's like, why right now, 931 00:48:34,160 --> 00:48:36,400 Speaker 1: why did you decide to do this? Why are you 932 00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:39,840 Speaker 1: casting aside advice of the commander in chief and of 933 00:48:39,920 --> 00:48:43,480 Speaker 1: the US military. Do you have a strategy? Because last 934 00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,600 Speaker 1: time I checked, you're not the person who has to 935 00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:49,799 Speaker 1: deal with the actual fallout from all of this. And reportedly, 936 00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:54,040 Speaker 1: in a direct phone call between Biden and g G 937 00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,719 Speaker 1: said to Biden, those who play with fire get burnt. 938 00:48:57,080 --> 00:49:00,720 Speaker 1: So it's not just you know, editorial in this paper 939 00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,960 Speaker 1: or state media commentary or whatever. The warnings and the 940 00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:07,480 Speaker 1: threats are coming directly from the top in terms of 941 00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,759 Speaker 1: you know, whether it's Pelosi's vanity or whether she, you know, 942 00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,799 Speaker 1: has sort of tacit endorsement from the Biden administration even 943 00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:16,400 Speaker 1: as they publicly protest. I do think it's noteworthy that 944 00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:20,000 Speaker 1: Biden himself did not call her if this is really 945 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,319 Speaker 1: critical to you, and you, you know, really think it's 946 00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,040 Speaker 1: important that she not go and that this is precipitating 947 00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 1: as potential crisis as it is, and it's brinksmanship and provocation, 948 00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,320 Speaker 1: and it flies in the face of what your actual 949 00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:36,440 Speaker 1: policy is. Is she's not listening to Jake Sullivan and 950 00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,680 Speaker 1: the military or whoever else is calling her, you got 951 00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:41,560 Speaker 1: to get on the phone with her as president of 952 00:49:41,600 --> 00:49:45,400 Speaker 1: the United States. And so the fact that he is unwilling, 953 00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:48,120 Speaker 1: and the reason why is politics, because he doesn't want 954 00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,480 Speaker 1: the Republicans to have this talking point of everything's done 955 00:49:51,560 --> 00:49:54,799 Speaker 1: sort to avoid a freaking talking point that he doesn't 956 00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:57,279 Speaker 1: want them to have a talking point of Biden being 957 00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:02,600 Speaker 1: directly rebuffed by polit as if that's not already what's 958 00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,040 Speaker 1: happening here. So, if you don't want her to go, 959 00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,240 Speaker 1: get your hands dirty and get in there. You're supposed 960 00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:11,000 Speaker 1: to be the great negotiator with all these incredible relationships, 961 00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,240 Speaker 1: who can get things done and try to directly persuade 962 00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,560 Speaker 1: her not to do this. He didn't do that. So 963 00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,440 Speaker 1: again I look at that and say, you know, I 964 00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,000 Speaker 1: don't blame that, whether they're correct or not, I don't 965 00:50:23,000 --> 00:50:25,600 Speaker 1: blame the Chinese for looking at this state of affairs 966 00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,440 Speaker 1: and saying, you're not mad that she's going, you're good 967 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:30,400 Speaker 1: with this, because this is consistent with some of the 968 00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:34,160 Speaker 1: other rhetoric that has come directly from the President of 969 00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,560 Speaker 1: the United States. So, as I said before, you know, 970 00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,880 Speaker 1: with regards to the US and our policy, it does 971 00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:42,919 Speaker 1: matter whether this was coming from the President or whether 972 00:50:42,960 --> 00:50:46,880 Speaker 1: it's Pelosi just totally free lancing and totally rebuffing the 973 00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,799 Speaker 1: leader of our party in the President of the United 974 00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:51,880 Speaker 1: States and freelancing and foreign affairs. But you know, for 975 00:50:52,000 --> 00:50:55,239 Speaker 1: the Chinese looking at this, it really doesn't matter that 976 00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:58,839 Speaker 1: much because their perception is that this is the new 977 00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,560 Speaker 1: policy of the United States and that it is an 978 00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:05,040 Speaker 1: intentional provocation, and they have their own domestic politics to 979 00:51:05,080 --> 00:51:06,840 Speaker 1: look after, and they are not going to want to 980 00:51:06,960 --> 00:51:13,359 Speaker 1: look weak in this situation. It's just it is so foolish, oh, 981 00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:18,920 Speaker 1: just in general, but especially especially in this moment. I 982 00:51:19,200 --> 00:51:21,480 Speaker 1: just cannot wrap my head around it. At all yeah, 983 00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:24,840 Speaker 1: and right now, the People's Liberation Army again escalating their rhetoric. 984 00:51:24,920 --> 00:51:27,120 Speaker 1: They posted a message that said quote get ready for 985 00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:30,080 Speaker 1: war on the official account of the eightieth Army the 986 00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:33,720 Speaker 1: PLA on Weibo, which is the largest social network in China. 987 00:51:33,920 --> 00:51:36,719 Speaker 1: So look, we've also seen reports that they're you know, 988 00:51:36,840 --> 00:51:41,440 Speaker 1: canceling flights in certain areas because that would lead may 989 00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:44,359 Speaker 1: make way for the possible deployment of military aircraft. There 990 00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,160 Speaker 1: was one wrecks. I mean there was a direct comment 991 00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:51,480 Speaker 1: from a Chinese state media commentator threatening Pelosi is playing directly. 992 00:51:51,640 --> 00:51:54,040 Speaker 1: Now do I think that will actually that they would 993 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:57,120 Speaker 1: actually be crazy enough to do that. No, but you 994 00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:00,200 Speaker 1: are playing with fire. The point is is that take 995 00:52:00,239 --> 00:52:03,200 Speaker 1: it seriously, and you know, we can say, oh, they're 996 00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,719 Speaker 1: just talking you know this this and that this is 997 00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:10,719 Speaker 1: an authoritarian regime. Nothing gets posted without approval. Everything that 998 00:52:10,960 --> 00:52:14,960 Speaker 1: is public is within the bounds of accepted conversation. By 999 00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:19,160 Speaker 1: Shishingping in the Chinese Communist Party, they are ex extraordinarily 1000 00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:22,960 Speaker 1: neurotic around their messaging. In terms of policy, I also 1001 00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:25,520 Speaker 1: think people should remember this, our Taiwan policy is governed 1002 00:52:25,520 --> 00:52:28,200 Speaker 1: by the Taiwan Relations Act. I think of nineteen ninety five, 1003 00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:31,440 Speaker 1: which effectively declares like, we will have the quasi diplomatic 1004 00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:33,600 Speaker 1: relations with China, but we have a one China policy, 1005 00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:37,200 Speaker 1: recognize the People's Republic of China. The problem on the 1006 00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,000 Speaker 1: Chinese side and on the Taiwan East side is really 1007 00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:43,560 Speaker 1: radical departures from a lot of this. So in twenty nineteen, 1008 00:52:43,960 --> 00:52:47,520 Speaker 1: shishing Ping proposed a one country to systems policy, where 1009 00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:51,880 Speaker 1: he effectively said, hey, Taiwan reunification is inevitable, there is 1010 00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:54,640 Speaker 1: no choice. Thus you should enter the fray of the 1011 00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:57,759 Speaker 1: People's Republic of China like Hong Kong. Not that it 1012 00:52:57,800 --> 00:53:00,320 Speaker 1: worked out for Hong Kong. You can have one country, 1013 00:53:00,360 --> 00:53:03,040 Speaker 1: two systems. You can continue to be a democracy, but 1014 00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:05,000 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the major political entity 1015 00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,720 Speaker 1: will be the CCP. At the same time, the current 1016 00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:13,240 Speaker 1: President of Taiwan is pretty outwardly pro Taiwan's independence, saying 1017 00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:17,640 Speaker 1: our country is democratically elected, we are a republic in 1018 00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:21,160 Speaker 1: our own right. We do not recognize one country, two systems, 1019 00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:24,319 Speaker 1: and we want to be our own country again. They 1020 00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:27,480 Speaker 1: are a democracy. It's certainly true, and I don't think 1021 00:53:27,520 --> 00:53:30,360 Speaker 1: it is deniable that the Taiwanese people themselves do not 1022 00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:33,800 Speaker 1: want to be a part of China. So the problem 1023 00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:38,399 Speaker 1: is that Chi shengping believes at its core, not just him, 1024 00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:42,279 Speaker 1: but the entire CCP in the reunification of Taiwan. They 1025 00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:46,040 Speaker 1: look at it as a massive soar leftover from the 1026 00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,000 Speaker 1: nineteen forty five nineteen forty nine Civil War, and have 1027 00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:50,920 Speaker 1: always looked at it as a diplomatic thumb in the 1028 00:53:50,960 --> 00:53:53,040 Speaker 1: face on behalf of the US. As to who cares 1029 00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:54,640 Speaker 1: about it more, I mean, there's no question that the 1030 00:53:54,719 --> 00:53:56,960 Speaker 1: Chinese care about it a lot more. So, then the 1031 00:53:57,040 --> 00:54:00,760 Speaker 1: question is, well, what is the reunification timeline and current reporting? 1032 00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,799 Speaker 1: Again reporting, it is very difficult to know whether any 1033 00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:06,160 Speaker 1: of this is true. Intel community. They got it right 1034 00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:07,960 Speaker 1: on Ukraine. They also got it a lot wrong in 1035 00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:09,759 Speaker 1: some cars of Ukraine, so you take it for what 1036 00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:13,160 Speaker 1: it will. They say that Chi Shinping has moved up 1037 00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:16,840 Speaker 1: his timeline for reunification of Taiwan to possibly within the 1038 00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:20,040 Speaker 1: next eighteen months, specifically in order to coincide not only 1039 00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,200 Speaker 1: with the one hundredth year anniversary of the CCP's rule 1040 00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:27,319 Speaker 1: over China or the CCPs founding I believe over China, 1041 00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,600 Speaker 1: but also in order to coincide with his third term, 1042 00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,480 Speaker 1: So keep in mind what the domestic political situation is 1043 00:54:33,760 --> 00:54:36,239 Speaker 1: in China and why that may matter. So you know, 1044 00:54:36,440 --> 00:54:38,640 Speaker 1: they're also there was a lot of talk here about 1045 00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:40,800 Speaker 1: we have to defend Ukraine so we can show that 1046 00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,520 Speaker 1: so because then the Chinese won't invade Taiwan and if 1047 00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:45,880 Speaker 1: they do, yeah, it's going to be real good that 1048 00:54:45,960 --> 00:54:49,640 Speaker 1: we wasted forty billion dollars. Well, we'll see, we'll see 1049 00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:52,360 Speaker 1: how do how well do that position as yah And 1050 00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:54,600 Speaker 1: I think the last thing to point out here is 1051 00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,880 Speaker 1: that you know, with Russia and the economic sanctions that 1052 00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:01,680 Speaker 1: we and the Yourans all levied against them, the really 1053 00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:05,440 Speaker 1: all out economic warfare that we declared on Russia, ultimately 1054 00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:07,879 Speaker 1: we don't get on much stuff from Russia. So while 1055 00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:11,240 Speaker 1: it has been a disaster in terms of global food prices, 1056 00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:12,920 Speaker 1: we're going to talk about that more. I mean, the 1057 00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:16,400 Speaker 1: hunger crisis around the world that has been that predated 1058 00:55:16,719 --> 00:55:19,759 Speaker 1: the Russia Russia's war in Ukraine, but has been exacerbated 1059 00:55:19,800 --> 00:55:24,480 Speaker 1: by it is just it is gut wrenchingly horrific situation. 1060 00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:29,280 Speaker 1: But in terms of the US domestic situation, are economic 1061 00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:34,640 Speaker 1: entanglements with Russia are obviously nothing compared to our economic 1062 00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:39,280 Speaker 1: entanglements and really dependence on China. Not just China, but Taiwan. 1063 00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:43,040 Speaker 1: Semiconductor takes ninety two percent of the world's most manufact 1064 00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:46,040 Speaker 1: ninety two percent. Like I said, that literally would fold 1065 00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:50,000 Speaker 1: the US economy overnight, and we are just beginning to 1066 00:55:50,239 --> 00:55:55,320 Speaker 1: scratch the surface of thinking about reshoring some of those capability. 1067 00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:57,200 Speaker 1: And it takes ten years. I mean is it is 1068 00:55:57,320 --> 00:55:59,799 Speaker 1: going to take a long time, and it will take 1069 00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:03,160 Speaker 1: consistent political will of a type that we have never 1070 00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:07,920 Speaker 1: seen in terms of you know, economic industrial policy and 1071 00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:12,120 Speaker 1: getting both parties on board and all of those things. So, yeah, 1072 00:56:12,239 --> 00:56:18,360 Speaker 1: it is an utter catastrophe, totally unnecessary, potential crisis provocation 1073 00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:22,280 Speaker 1: at the worst possible moment. We'll see how it works out. Yes, Indeed, 1074 00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:25,520 Speaker 1: so we wanted to start with that big Kansas abortion referendum. 1075 00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:28,640 Speaker 1: So as a reminder, there was a ballot initiative that 1076 00:56:28,760 --> 00:56:32,839 Speaker 1: Kansas voters went to vote on on Tuesday which would 1077 00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:36,840 Speaker 1: have changed the Kansas constitution to allow lawmakers in that 1078 00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:39,920 Speaker 1: state to ban abortion in whatever way they want to do. 1079 00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,359 Speaker 1: There had been a Supreme Court decision previously, I think 1080 00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:44,600 Speaker 1: it was in twenty nineteen or twenty eighteen in Kansas. 1081 00:56:44,680 --> 00:56:47,759 Speaker 1: That said, this line in the Kansas Constitution guarantees the 1082 00:56:47,920 --> 00:56:51,279 Speaker 1: right to abortion access. So that has limited what the 1083 00:56:51,560 --> 00:56:55,000 Speaker 1: Republican dominatete they have a super majority, Republican dominated legislature, 1084 00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:57,440 Speaker 1: has been able to do in that state. So a 1085 00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:00,880 Speaker 1: vote yes on that ballot initiative was the pro life 1086 00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:04,239 Speaker 1: or anti abortion position. Vote no, meaning let's leave the 1087 00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:08,640 Speaker 1: constitution as it is, was the pro choice position for 1088 00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:13,600 Speaker 1: the vote. And obviously Kansas pretty red state. And not 1089 00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:17,680 Speaker 1: only that, but most of the other action on Tuesday 1090 00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:19,400 Speaker 1: was all on the Republican side. So we were all 1091 00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:21,840 Speaker 1: kinds of candidates and Chris Kobak back at it and 1092 00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:23,920 Speaker 1: all these things on the Republican side for people to 1093 00:57:24,000 --> 00:57:26,400 Speaker 1: vote on Democratic side. Listen, in Kansas, there's not a 1094 00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,000 Speaker 1: whole lot of action going on there, so it seemed 1095 00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:32,720 Speaker 1: like the landscape was kind of tilted in Republicans favor. 1096 00:57:32,760 --> 00:57:35,200 Speaker 1: They actually pushed to have this ballot initiue on the 1097 00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,840 Speaker 1: ballot on this primary day, anticipating that there would be 1098 00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:42,480 Speaker 1: much much higher Republican turnout. Well, surprise, very different result 1099 00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,200 Speaker 1: than what people expected. Let's go and put this up 1100 00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:48,120 Speaker 1: on the screen. So the pro choice position. The no 1101 00:57:48,320 --> 00:57:54,280 Speaker 1: position was resoundingly successful. This AP article says Kansas voters 1102 00:57:54,440 --> 00:57:58,400 Speaker 1: resoundingly protect their access to abortion. With most of the 1103 00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:03,560 Speaker 1: vote counted, they were prevailed by roughly twenty percentage points 1104 00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:06,800 Speaker 1: with And this was the really crazy part. The turnout 1105 00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:10,439 Speaker 1: was insane. Turnout was approaching what's typical for a fall 1106 00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:14,880 Speaker 1: election for governor. You know, it's also interesting to dig into, 1107 00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:16,360 Speaker 1: and Soccer's gonna have a little bit more of this 1108 00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:21,160 Speaker 1: in his monologue. The way that both sides campaigned. The 1109 00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:23,800 Speaker 1: pro choice side really framed this as an issue of 1110 00:58:23,880 --> 00:58:26,080 Speaker 1: sort of individual liberty and freedodom. They didn't say the 1111 00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:30,040 Speaker 1: word abortion one time, the you know, yes side of it. 1112 00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,600 Speaker 1: The anti choice side, they really framed this They didn't 1113 00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,000 Speaker 1: want to talk about abortion really either. They wanted to 1114 00:58:36,080 --> 00:58:38,960 Speaker 1: say this is abortion neutral. They really tried to hide 1115 00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:41,880 Speaker 1: the ball about what legislators might do if this amendment 1116 00:58:41,960 --> 00:58:47,720 Speaker 1: did ultimately pass. And ultimately it was extremely energizing for 1117 00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:50,000 Speaker 1: the pro choice side. And I don't even want to 1118 00:58:50,040 --> 00:58:51,880 Speaker 1: say the Democratic side, because there was very clearly some 1119 00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:56,000 Speaker 1: crossover vote here of Republicans who voted with the pro 1120 00:58:56,160 --> 00:58:58,760 Speaker 1: choice position. Here, let's go ahead and put Steve Kornacki's 1121 00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:01,120 Speaker 1: tweet up on the screen that gets at just how 1122 00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:04,400 Speaker 1: crazy this turnout was, which just about all votes counted. 1123 00:59:04,800 --> 00:59:07,960 Speaker 1: Turnout for the Kansas primary stands at nine hundred and 1124 00:59:08,200 --> 00:59:13,320 Speaker 1: ten thousand votes. So for comparison, back in twenty eighteen, 1125 00:59:13,440 --> 00:59:16,760 Speaker 1: which was a hotly contested primary, had about half four 1126 00:59:16,840 --> 00:59:20,200 Speaker 1: hundred and seventy three thousand votes in that primary versus 1127 00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,760 Speaker 1: nine hundred and ten thousand this time around, pretty comparable. 1128 00:59:23,760 --> 00:59:27,760 Speaker 1: I'm not that far off, honestly from the presidential election 1129 00:59:28,000 --> 00:59:30,920 Speaker 1: vote totals. Go ahead and put this next piece up 1130 00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:34,200 Speaker 1: on the screen. Nate Cone says that Democrats were about 1131 00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:37,160 Speaker 1: fifty percent likelier to vote earlier than this than republicanc. 1132 00:59:37,200 --> 00:59:39,320 Speaker 1: He was tweeting this while the results were still coming in, 1133 00:59:39,680 --> 00:59:42,640 Speaker 1: yielding a nearly even partisan split among early voters in 1134 00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:47,000 Speaker 1: a state Republicans outnumbered Democrats by nearly two to one. 1135 00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:49,120 Speaker 1: So he says, no surprise that nos off to a 1136 00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,000 Speaker 1: quick start, but there actually ended up not being that 1137 00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:53,520 Speaker 1: big of a difference between the early vote and the 1138 00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:57,120 Speaker 1: day of voting. And let's put this last Krnaky tweet 1139 00:59:57,200 --> 00:59:58,600 Speaker 1: up on the screen, and then we can talk about 1140 00:59:58,600 --> 01:00:00,800 Speaker 1: all of this in the first test of the post 1141 01:00:00,920 --> 01:00:04,160 Speaker 1: row atmosphere, Kansas rejects fifty nine to forty one percent 1142 01:00:04,240 --> 01:00:07,560 Speaker 1: a constitutional amendment declaring abortion not a protected right. In 1143 01:00:07,680 --> 01:00:10,600 Speaker 1: the last decade. This is very interesting. When Roe was 1144 01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:15,479 Speaker 1: still in place, virtually identical amendments went four for four, 1145 01:00:15,720 --> 01:00:18,480 Speaker 1: so they took the opposite position in Tennessee fifty three 1146 01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,280 Speaker 1: to forty seven, so relatively close Alabama that the you know, 1147 01:00:22,360 --> 01:00:24,920 Speaker 1: anti choice of pro life position won very easily fifty 1148 01:00:25,000 --> 01:00:27,520 Speaker 1: nine to forty one. West Virginia very narrow fifty two 1149 01:00:27,520 --> 01:00:30,480 Speaker 1: to forty eight. Louisiana won very easily, safty one thirty nine. 1150 01:00:30,480 --> 01:00:33,200 Speaker 1: So it's the first type of amendment like this in 1151 01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:37,200 Speaker 1: a red state to fail. And obviously the difference now 1152 01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:39,960 Speaker 1: is that Roe has been overturned and the Supreme Court 1153 01:00:40,040 --> 01:00:43,240 Speaker 1: has totally upended the landscape here. Oh yeah, it's absolutely remarkable. 1154 01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:44,920 Speaker 1: And actually you sent this this morning, which actually I 1155 01:00:44,960 --> 01:00:46,760 Speaker 1: think is even more interesting, which is that we don't 1156 01:00:46,800 --> 01:00:49,240 Speaker 1: have the chart made, but the data just came out 1157 01:00:49,280 --> 01:00:51,720 Speaker 1: that shows that the percent of new registrants in the 1158 01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,880 Speaker 1: state who were women. In the state of Kansas, the 1159 01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:59,400 Speaker 1: moving seven day average had a massive increase in the 1160 01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:03,080 Speaker 1: In the Dobbs era, basically it was flat. Everything was 1161 01:01:03,120 --> 01:01:06,680 Speaker 1: between the fiftieth and the fifty fifth percentile for year, 1162 01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:08,560 Speaker 1: for months and months and months in the lead up 1163 01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:11,320 Speaker 1: to the election, and then as soon as Dobbs went 1164 01:01:11,320 --> 01:01:14,840 Speaker 1: ahead and came out, it jumped from sixty to from 1165 01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:17,760 Speaker 1: the fifty fifth percentile all the way up until almost 1166 01:01:17,960 --> 01:01:21,200 Speaker 1: seventy percent. So there's a massive jump right in the 1167 01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:25,040 Speaker 1: week weeks after the Dobbs decision, the overturning of Roe 1168 01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:27,440 Speaker 1: versus Wade. So it was not only a ton of 1169 01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:30,680 Speaker 1: women who were activated by this, but look, here's the 1170 01:01:30,840 --> 01:01:34,120 Speaker 1: basic truth about a third of the people who came out, 1171 01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,160 Speaker 1: just if you look at the data to vote in 1172 01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:40,000 Speaker 1: the Republican primary, also voted no on this amendment, which 1173 01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:43,680 Speaker 1: just so you guys know, tracks almost exactly with the 1174 01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:46,800 Speaker 1: vote share of people who are Republican and who identify 1175 01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:50,280 Speaker 1: as pro choice. I've said this ad nauseum. At least 1176 01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:52,280 Speaker 1: one third of the people who voted for Donald Trump, 1177 01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:56,040 Speaker 1: at least possibly even more are pro choice. Now that 1178 01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:59,200 Speaker 1: showed you that Trump activated a much bigger and broader 1179 01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:02,440 Speaker 1: coalition because his stuff was more about political correctness. I'm 1180 01:02:02,480 --> 01:02:04,760 Speaker 1: gonna be talking a ton about this in my monologue. 1181 01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:07,760 Speaker 1: This just does show you that the old social conservatism 1182 01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:10,400 Speaker 1: really does not have even close to a popular mandate 1183 01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:14,680 Speaker 1: even amongst its actual voters that it claims in order 1184 01:02:14,720 --> 01:02:17,479 Speaker 1: to speak on behalf of. So this is a remarkable vote, 1185 01:02:18,000 --> 01:02:19,880 Speaker 1: and I think there's a hell of a lot of 1186 01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:23,160 Speaker 1: cope on the Republican side. There is no spinning this. 1187 01:02:23,440 --> 01:02:27,800 Speaker 1: It's not Pennsylvania, it's not Florida. Donald Trump won by 1188 01:02:28,000 --> 01:02:33,320 Speaker 1: less percent in Kansas than this abortion referendum. One pro 1189 01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:37,280 Speaker 1: choice position is more popular than Trump in the state 1190 01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:43,200 Speaker 1: of Kansas, which is a fifteen percentage point Republican state. Now, look, 1191 01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:50,840 Speaker 1: would this type of stuff pass into Utah? Yeah, maybe Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas. 1192 01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:54,600 Speaker 1: Maybe again, but if we're talking about you need R 1193 01:02:54,720 --> 01:02:57,840 Speaker 1: plus thirty advantage in order to put this on the 1194 01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:00,280 Speaker 1: ballot or actually win this at a ballot level in 1195 01:03:00,360 --> 01:03:03,080 Speaker 1: your state. Look, it's a catastrophe when you consider the 1196 01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:06,439 Speaker 1: national implications. Again, and you and I have been talking 1197 01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,760 Speaker 1: a lot about this, but there does seem to be 1198 01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:13,840 Speaker 1: a activation of Democratic voters which has not showed up 1199 01:03:13,880 --> 01:03:16,840 Speaker 1: in polls, which has not showed up anywhere else, but 1200 01:03:17,160 --> 01:03:19,240 Speaker 1: is showing up in the two data points that we 1201 01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,320 Speaker 1: can now point to the special election that we saw previously, 1202 01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:24,920 Speaker 1: which was I think the Republicans only won by three 1203 01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:27,720 Speaker 1: points when they'd won by seventeen points previously, and now 1204 01:03:28,000 --> 01:03:30,640 Speaker 1: this Kansas referendum. At the end of the day, votes 1205 01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:33,200 Speaker 1: are always going to be better than polls. So as 1206 01:03:33,240 --> 01:03:35,760 Speaker 1: we found out in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty, 1207 01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:37,720 Speaker 1: the polls were off, and it's very possible that the 1208 01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:39,800 Speaker 1: polls are off this time. I am not saying that 1209 01:03:39,880 --> 01:03:42,560 Speaker 1: the Republicans still won't lose went the House, or that 1210 01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:45,240 Speaker 1: they may not take the Senate, just that this has, 1211 01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:48,960 Speaker 1: as we predicted, thrown a massive wrench into the predictability 1212 01:03:49,040 --> 01:03:51,800 Speaker 1: of it, as shown by voter registered data, and now 1213 01:03:51,840 --> 01:03:54,360 Speaker 1: by this massive turnout that did not exist before. It 1214 01:03:54,480 --> 01:03:57,560 Speaker 1: is there's just no question in my mind on a 1215 01:03:57,680 --> 01:04:00,240 Speaker 1: national level, this is going to hurt the Republican Party. Yeah, 1216 01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,240 Speaker 1: I mean, listen, let's keep in mind, it's very different 1217 01:04:03,280 --> 01:04:06,880 Speaker 1: when you have just this very specific question directly about 1218 01:04:06,920 --> 01:04:09,640 Speaker 1: abortion versus weighing the whole basket of issues and how 1219 01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:11,000 Speaker 1: do I feel about the economy and what do I 1220 01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:13,600 Speaker 1: feel about Joe Biden all of those things, so it's 1221 01:04:13,680 --> 01:04:16,880 Speaker 1: not like a one to one correlation. But as you said, 1222 01:04:17,320 --> 01:04:21,960 Speaker 1: we already had this other special election where Democrats dramatically 1223 01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:25,920 Speaker 1: outperformed what the polling said. Now you have another very 1224 01:04:26,000 --> 01:04:29,280 Speaker 1: significant polling miss because there wasn't a lot of public 1225 01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:31,800 Speaker 1: polling in this referendum. But all the expectations were that 1226 01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:35,520 Speaker 1: this thing was going to be close. Now I've remembered 1227 01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:38,280 Speaker 1: I really had no idea how this was going to 1228 01:04:38,360 --> 01:04:40,800 Speaker 1: ultimately turn out, because I did think the Republican strategy 1229 01:04:40,880 --> 01:04:43,360 Speaker 1: putting on the ballot when they had all their primaries 1230 01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,320 Speaker 1: would be difficult to overcome. There was huge amounts of 1231 01:04:46,360 --> 01:04:48,600 Speaker 1: money spent on both sides of the thing. We'll get 1232 01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:50,360 Speaker 1: into a little bit of the Republican cobe on the 1233 01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,640 Speaker 1: money side in just a minute. But remember Kansas also, 1234 01:04:54,040 --> 01:04:56,640 Speaker 1: Kansas isn't just any old red state. They have a 1235 01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:02,200 Speaker 1: deep history of institutional pro life you know, even sort 1236 01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:05,320 Speaker 1: of radical movements. I mean, this is the state where 1237 01:05:05,840 --> 01:05:08,960 Speaker 1: doctor Tiller, you know who remember, was so controversial and 1238 01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:12,400 Speaker 1: so demonized for performing late term abortions. This is the 1239 01:05:12,480 --> 01:05:14,840 Speaker 1: state that he was in and where he was murdered. 1240 01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:17,640 Speaker 1: This is also the state where they had anti abortion 1241 01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:21,720 Speaker 1: Summer of Mercy protests back in nineteen ninety one, according 1242 01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:23,960 Speaker 1: to the AP, that inspired abortion opponents to take over 1243 01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:27,320 Speaker 1: the Kansas Republican Party meet the legislature more conservative. So 1244 01:05:27,800 --> 01:05:30,520 Speaker 1: this is kind of a bedrock state in terms of 1245 01:05:30,640 --> 01:05:33,320 Speaker 1: the pro life movement, and to see it go so 1246 01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:36,680 Speaker 1: hard against their position here is really quite incredible. It 1247 01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,640 Speaker 1: reminded me something I'd forgotten about. Back in twenty eleven, 1248 01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:45,640 Speaker 1: Mississippi voters voted on a personhood amendment, which another sort 1249 01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:50,120 Speaker 1: of extreme extreme abortion anti abortion position, and they also 1250 01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:54,600 Speaker 1: rejected it handily. So listen, the American public is really 1251 01:05:54,640 --> 01:05:57,480 Speaker 1: pretty mixed one choice. They have a pretty complicated, pretty 1252 01:05:57,560 --> 01:06:02,080 Speaker 1: nuanced view. There aren't a lot of absolutists on you 1253 01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:04,080 Speaker 1: know that are all the way to the right, all 1254 01:06:04,120 --> 01:06:06,560 Speaker 1: the way to the left on the issue. So when 1255 01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:09,360 Speaker 1: you are in the position as Republicans are now of 1256 01:06:09,760 --> 01:06:13,000 Speaker 1: really pushing the extremes or really pushing the fringes, you 1257 01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,360 Speaker 1: are going to be honest up with the public, even 1258 01:06:15,480 --> 01:06:20,600 Speaker 1: in a place like Kansas. So listen overall. You know, 1259 01:06:20,840 --> 01:06:23,240 Speaker 1: I did my monologue earlier this week on how the 1260 01:06:23,440 --> 01:06:26,560 Speaker 1: landscape has shifted a bit towards Democrats. I think that's true. 1261 01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:30,240 Speaker 1: I think the outcomes for November are a lot murkier 1262 01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,240 Speaker 1: than they were before this decision came down. I think 1263 01:06:34,280 --> 01:06:36,760 Speaker 1: this seems very much to be Even as voters may 1264 01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:39,240 Speaker 1: not list it as their number one issue, that doesn't 1265 01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:41,920 Speaker 1: mean it's not a very motivating issue for them. And 1266 01:06:42,000 --> 01:06:45,400 Speaker 1: I think specifically in certain races where you have, you know, 1267 01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:47,640 Speaker 1: really clear there are a couple more states that are 1268 01:06:47,680 --> 01:06:49,800 Speaker 1: going to have ballot initiatives in the fall where you 1269 01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:52,320 Speaker 1: have governors that are going to be in position to 1270 01:06:53,040 --> 01:06:55,880 Speaker 1: make some extreme changes. Here where there's a really clear connect, 1271 01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:58,760 Speaker 1: I think you're going to see some significant shifts here, 1272 01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:01,880 Speaker 1: and especially because Republicans have nominated a lot of candidates 1273 01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:03,160 Speaker 1: that are kind of out on a limb on that. 1274 01:07:03,280 --> 01:07:05,840 Speaker 1: If I'm a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, this is all I'm 1275 01:07:05,880 --> 01:07:07,720 Speaker 1: talking about ahead of the fall. This this is a 1276 01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:09,880 Speaker 1: green light. I think ja Gretchen Whitmer, which is go 1277 01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:11,960 Speaker 1: all out. This is going to be the case. Same 1278 01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:15,680 Speaker 1: for Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania. If you're running in any 1279 01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,600 Speaker 1: sort of battleground state, this is clear evidence that this 1280 01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:21,880 Speaker 1: will not only motivate donors, but it will actually motivate 1281 01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:24,960 Speaker 1: your own voters, and if you can get more females 1282 01:07:25,000 --> 01:07:27,600 Speaker 1: to register disfortunately, they're going to go ahead and vote 1283 01:07:27,760 --> 01:07:29,800 Speaker 1: for Democrats. So that's going to help on the downballot 1284 01:07:30,040 --> 01:07:31,760 Speaker 1: as well. So I think there's a lot of lessons 1285 01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:33,720 Speaker 1: here to be learned for the Democratic Party, and I'm 1286 01:07:33,760 --> 01:07:36,720 Speaker 1: going to be talking also about messaging. Messaging here is 1287 01:07:36,840 --> 01:07:39,440 Speaker 1: very important. Joe Biden, this is very noteworthy to me, 1288 01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:41,840 Speaker 1: did not use the word abortion one time whenever he 1289 01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:45,000 Speaker 1: celebrated this decision, not once. He just talked about pro 1290 01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:47,720 Speaker 1: choice and freedom. Freedom was one of those things that 1291 01:07:47,760 --> 01:07:51,400 Speaker 1: which was emphasized strongly by the Kansas position, by the 1292 01:07:51,440 --> 01:07:54,680 Speaker 1: Kansas Organization, which drove the vote out here. So how 1293 01:07:54,800 --> 01:07:56,720 Speaker 1: you talk about it and you know, try to capture 1294 01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:58,840 Speaker 1: the nuance and really just making sure that it's like 1295 01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:02,680 Speaker 1: a pushback against extreme can basically tail conditions where you're like, hey, 1296 01:08:02,720 --> 01:08:04,560 Speaker 1: do you really want a ten year old case here 1297 01:08:04,600 --> 01:08:06,080 Speaker 1: in Kansas? Do you want a ten year old to 1298 01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:07,680 Speaker 1: be raped and be forced to carry a baby to 1299 01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,960 Speaker 1: term here in the state of Kansas? But people are like, 1300 01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:13,440 Speaker 1: absolutely not right, you know, ninety percent. So if you 1301 01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:16,320 Speaker 1: can capture that spirit, that ethos and push not even 1302 01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:18,840 Speaker 1: push back, but don't even acknowledge any of this Lena 1303 01:08:18,920 --> 01:08:22,400 Speaker 1: Dunham type stuff. Then you are golden from a political 1304 01:08:22,439 --> 01:08:24,640 Speaker 1: point of view, and it really does put Republicans on 1305 01:08:24,720 --> 01:08:26,479 Speaker 1: the back foot. I have noticed I have not seen 1306 01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:30,760 Speaker 1: one national GOP politician reckon with these results yet, not one. 1307 01:08:31,000 --> 01:08:33,360 Speaker 1: And also, if you're Donald Trump, you bet your asses 1308 01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:35,320 Speaker 1: watching this very very close. Yeah, let's go ahead and 1309 01:08:35,320 --> 01:08:38,920 Speaker 1: speak about Taiwan. So, obviously, Speaker Pelosi landed in Taiwan. 1310 01:08:39,080 --> 01:08:41,240 Speaker 1: She was there for a little over twenty four hours. 1311 01:08:41,280 --> 01:08:44,559 Speaker 1: She met with the President, she made some appearances and more, 1312 01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:47,680 Speaker 1: and then she quickly departed. But the fallout from her 1313 01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:51,040 Speaker 1: visit is only now beginning actually today, so there's a 1314 01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:53,960 Speaker 1: lot of eyes on what's happening. First, let's start though 1315 01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:57,120 Speaker 1: with her op ed. The moment she landed, she published 1316 01:08:57,120 --> 01:08:58,560 Speaker 1: an op ed, and the Washington Post has put this 1317 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,200 Speaker 1: up there on the screen. And what she talks about 1318 01:09:01,280 --> 01:09:04,080 Speaker 1: here is not only the passage of the Taiwan's Relations Act, 1319 01:09:04,360 --> 01:09:07,240 Speaker 1: but I thought that the way that she phrased it 1320 01:09:07,760 --> 01:09:11,040 Speaker 1: really bears some scrutiny, which is this quote, we take 1321 01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,200 Speaker 1: this trip at a time when the world faces a 1322 01:09:13,320 --> 01:09:18,040 Speaker 1: choice between autocracy and democracy. As Russia wages it's premeditated 1323 01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:21,400 Speaker 1: illegal war against Ukraine, killing thousands of innocents, even children, 1324 01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:24,080 Speaker 1: it is essential American our allies make clear that we 1325 01:09:24,280 --> 01:09:28,280 Speaker 1: never give in to autocrats. Now, there's a really weird 1326 01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:31,479 Speaker 1: theory behind this, which is that you have to go 1327 01:09:31,640 --> 01:09:34,760 Speaker 1: to Taiwan to show Ukraine that you're willing to stand 1328 01:09:34,880 --> 01:09:37,599 Speaker 1: up against Putin, and you have to defend Ukraine against 1329 01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:40,400 Speaker 1: Putin in order to show the Taiwanese that you'll back 1330 01:09:40,479 --> 01:09:42,320 Speaker 1: them against China. Right, And you're like, well, hold on 1331 01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:45,599 Speaker 1: a second, which one is it? And why this bothers 1332 01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:47,760 Speaker 1: me is that, look, the idea that we're going to 1333 01:09:47,760 --> 01:09:50,360 Speaker 1: support every democracy in the world is ridiculous. That's just 1334 01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:53,439 Speaker 1: not going to happen. States trade with other states and 1335 01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:57,400 Speaker 1: engage with them based upon their national interests. It has 1336 01:09:57,520 --> 01:10:00,639 Speaker 1: been like that since the beginning of time. You could 1337 01:10:00,720 --> 01:10:03,920 Speaker 1: make a very hard power, non democratic case to talk 1338 01:10:03,960 --> 01:10:07,240 Speaker 1: about Taiwan and to talk about Ukraine, frankly, but that's 1339 01:10:07,280 --> 01:10:09,599 Speaker 1: not the case that they make here. It's all wrapped 1340 01:10:09,680 --> 01:10:13,400 Speaker 1: up in this like high falutin language around democracy and autocracy, 1341 01:10:13,600 --> 01:10:15,280 Speaker 1: which then leads me to be like, well, okay, well 1342 01:10:15,320 --> 01:10:17,040 Speaker 1: why did we just okay three billion dollars by the 1343 01:10:17,080 --> 01:10:19,200 Speaker 1: Biden administration to the Saudi Arabian government, Because we did 1344 01:10:19,280 --> 01:10:21,600 Speaker 1: that actually happened yesterday, just so people are aware and 1345 01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:24,240 Speaker 1: you're like, oh, well, act, where's are minded ideals? Then yeah, 1346 01:10:24,280 --> 01:10:26,000 Speaker 1: there's no highline of ideals. Right then, we're talking about 1347 01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:27,879 Speaker 1: hard power. We're talking about oil. So it's like sometimes 1348 01:10:28,000 --> 01:10:30,280 Speaker 1: we're okay with hard power and sometimes we're not okay 1349 01:10:30,320 --> 01:10:32,320 Speaker 1: with hard power. The op ed itself was just you know, 1350 01:10:32,479 --> 01:10:35,519 Speaker 1: classic kind of neoliberal brain and right, well, that was 1351 01:10:35,560 --> 01:10:38,280 Speaker 1: actually my biggest takeaway from it. I mean, ultimately I 1352 01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:40,760 Speaker 1: read through it. She doesn't really make that much of 1353 01:10:40,840 --> 01:10:42,600 Speaker 1: a case for her trip. To be honest with you, 1354 01:10:42,720 --> 01:10:46,519 Speaker 1: it's just like reviewing our relationship with Taiwan. And here's 1355 01:10:46,560 --> 01:10:49,240 Speaker 1: why it's but she says by traveling that the closest 1356 01:10:49,280 --> 01:10:51,960 Speaker 1: she comes to making direct cases. She says, by traveling 1357 01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:56,360 Speaker 1: to Taiwan, we honor our commitment to democracy, reaffirming that 1358 01:10:56,439 --> 01:10:59,080 Speaker 1: the freedoms of Taiwan and all democracies must be respected. 1359 01:10:59,439 --> 01:11:02,600 Speaker 1: That doesn't anything. I mean, it's just like meaningless buzzwords. 1360 01:11:02,960 --> 01:11:05,200 Speaker 1: And I think that's I mean that's the real thing 1361 01:11:05,360 --> 01:11:08,920 Speaker 1: of why, Like if you could really make a case 1362 01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:12,400 Speaker 1: of what differenced this make why houses right and going 1363 01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:15,120 Speaker 1: right now? Why now is the time to go and 1364 01:11:15,280 --> 01:11:17,080 Speaker 1: what it means and where it's going to lead us. 1365 01:11:17,400 --> 01:11:19,600 Speaker 1: But they don't do that. I mean, everybody who's in 1366 01:11:19,640 --> 01:11:23,040 Speaker 1: and there's a bunch of Republicans mostly who really affirmatively 1367 01:11:23,120 --> 01:11:27,080 Speaker 1: supported Pelosi's trip, it's all just wrapped up in these 1368 01:11:27,280 --> 01:11:31,040 Speaker 1: meaningless buzzwords about standing up to autocrats and standing with 1369 01:11:31,160 --> 01:11:34,600 Speaker 1: democracy or whatever. Listen, as I said before, you know, 1370 01:11:34,640 --> 01:11:36,680 Speaker 1: if you believe that what we need to do is 1371 01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:38,840 Speaker 1: show China how tough we are, we're not going to 1372 01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:41,640 Speaker 1: back down. Okay, well, you can make an argument by 1373 01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:44,880 Speaker 1: flooding Ukraine with weapons. Certainly things have not gone for 1374 01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:47,280 Speaker 1: Russia the way they thought they would go. In Ukraine, 1375 01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,600 Speaker 1: you were able to get the you know, heard the 1376 01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:53,240 Speaker 1: Cats of Europe and basically more or less have a 1377 01:11:53,280 --> 01:11:55,880 Speaker 1: sort of united strategy, although there are some cracks in 1378 01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:58,840 Speaker 1: fishers there as well. Okay, so you did that. That 1379 01:11:59,000 --> 01:12:01,080 Speaker 1: was the hawkish case for what we've done in Ukraine. 1380 01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:03,960 Speaker 1: We've also done what I think is very intelligent in 1381 01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:08,800 Speaker 1: investing in our own chips, domestic manufacturing. That's the very 1382 01:12:08,920 --> 01:12:12,439 Speaker 1: beginning of these type of strategy vis of you China 1383 01:12:12,520 --> 01:12:14,720 Speaker 1: that I think makes a lot of sense. That just 1384 01:12:14,800 --> 01:12:17,840 Speaker 1: makes us a lot less dependent on both China and Taiwan. 1385 01:12:18,479 --> 01:12:21,720 Speaker 1: But right now, while we are in this place of vulnerability, 1386 01:12:21,840 --> 01:12:25,120 Speaker 1: wrapped up in the stupid proxy war with Russia, that 1387 01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:28,400 Speaker 1: now's the time it just makes no and sense. That's 1388 01:12:28,439 --> 01:12:30,600 Speaker 1: a really important point underscore. So like, look, if you 1389 01:12:30,680 --> 01:12:32,360 Speaker 1: care about Taiwan, if you want it to be able 1390 01:12:32,400 --> 01:12:34,040 Speaker 1: to defend itself, you want to kind of turn it 1391 01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:35,960 Speaker 1: into what's called like a porcupine, right, which is make 1392 01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:38,280 Speaker 1: it very very difficult for an attack because a seaborne 1393 01:12:38,280 --> 01:12:40,800 Speaker 1: attack is very likely. Well, actually, we're spending the bulk 1394 01:12:40,840 --> 01:12:43,799 Speaker 1: of our javelin reserves to Ukraine. So if China invaded 1395 01:12:43,800 --> 01:12:46,320 Speaker 1: Taiwan tomorrow, we actually would not have enough javelin missiles. 1396 01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:48,519 Speaker 1: Why because we don't have enough semi conductors in order 1397 01:12:48,520 --> 01:12:50,840 Speaker 1: to put into those javelin missiles. So if you do care, 1398 01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:54,439 Speaker 1: Ukraine is frankly detracting away from a lot of that case. 1399 01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:56,080 Speaker 1: You can make that if you want, but I'm just 1400 01:12:56,160 --> 01:12:59,600 Speaker 1: telling you that that's what the actual case is now bipartisanship, 1401 01:12:59,680 --> 01:13:02,680 Speaker 1: you know, all bry partisanship on display here. That's going 1402 01:13:02,680 --> 01:13:05,400 Speaker 1: to put this up there. Twenty five senators, including Mitch McConnell, 1403 01:13:05,560 --> 01:13:08,200 Speaker 1: put out a letter backing Pelosi's trip to Taiwan and 1404 01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:11,600 Speaker 1: actually attacking President Biden for saying that she shouldn't go. 1405 01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:15,559 Speaker 1: I mean this, look, Republicans can attack President Biden. That's fine. 1406 01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:18,760 Speaker 1: What bothers me most about the Pelosi trip is she 1407 01:13:18,960 --> 01:13:21,160 Speaker 1: is such a narcissist that she thinks she's going to 1408 01:13:21,200 --> 01:13:25,120 Speaker 1: take American foreign policy into her own hands, not listen 1409 01:13:25,200 --> 01:13:27,519 Speaker 1: to the elected president of the United States who is 1410 01:13:27,560 --> 01:13:30,280 Speaker 1: in charge of foreign policy, who's like, hey, I don't 1411 01:13:30,320 --> 01:13:32,479 Speaker 1: want you to go. And then also don't listen when 1412 01:13:32,479 --> 01:13:34,960 Speaker 1: the US military it's like, just so you know, this 1413 01:13:35,120 --> 01:13:37,960 Speaker 1: could be a real problem. And then lo and behold. 1414 01:13:38,280 --> 01:13:42,080 Speaker 1: Immediately after she landed, that is when the rhetoric from China, 1415 01:13:42,120 --> 01:13:44,600 Speaker 1: not only rhetoric but now action is beginning to ramp up. 1416 01:13:44,720 --> 01:13:47,160 Speaker 1: Let's put this up there. So, the Chinese ambassador said 1417 01:13:47,280 --> 01:13:50,960 Speaker 1: on CNN quote the speaker's visit is a major event, 1418 01:13:51,160 --> 01:13:54,160 Speaker 1: upgrading the substantive relations between the US and Taiwan and 1419 01:13:54,280 --> 01:13:57,599 Speaker 1: sends a wrong signal, so the Taiwan Independent separatist forces. 1420 01:13:57,880 --> 01:14:00,560 Speaker 1: He adds that China will make its opposition known to 1421 01:14:00,760 --> 01:14:03,720 Speaker 1: all levels of the United States government. Furthermore, as I 1422 01:14:03,760 --> 01:14:06,519 Speaker 1: showed you before, the Global Times commentators, let's go and 1423 01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:09,120 Speaker 1: put this up there. They are touting that the People's 1424 01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:12,640 Speaker 1: Liberation Army says that they will conduct live fire exercises 1425 01:14:12,720 --> 01:14:16,000 Speaker 1: in the six regions surrounding the Taiwan island. He is 1426 01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:19,000 Speaker 1: billing it as a quote situation that surpasses the nineteen 1427 01:14:19,080 --> 01:14:22,840 Speaker 1: ninety six Taiwan Straight Crisis. This is not just a demonstration, 1428 01:14:23,280 --> 01:14:27,880 Speaker 1: an actual exercise to liberate Taiwan. Pilosi's visit is bound 1429 01:14:27,960 --> 01:14:31,040 Speaker 1: to speed up China's unification. This is from the most 1430 01:14:31,080 --> 01:14:34,680 Speaker 1: hawkish element of the CCP's global media arm and is 1431 01:14:34,800 --> 01:14:39,040 Speaker 1: directly messaged to us in English so that we can understand. 1432 01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:42,280 Speaker 1: But finally, just this morning, actually we're getting the news 1433 01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:46,000 Speaker 1: that the Japanese Defense Forces say that five missiles have 1434 01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:49,840 Speaker 1: been launched by China during military drills near Taiwan that 1435 01:14:50,040 --> 01:14:53,680 Speaker 1: fell into the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone. Now, this is 1436 01:14:53,800 --> 01:14:58,360 Speaker 1: exactly why conflict in this region so is so dangerous. 1437 01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:02,960 Speaker 1: It's not just Taiwan. Taiwan, the Taiwan Straits some fifty 1438 01:15:03,000 --> 01:15:06,200 Speaker 1: percent of GDP and stuff moves even through the Taiwan 1439 01:15:06,280 --> 01:15:09,040 Speaker 1: Straits or the Straits of Malacca. We have a treaty. 1440 01:15:09,160 --> 01:15:11,519 Speaker 1: Last time I checked with Japan, we have to come 1441 01:15:11,800 --> 01:15:14,639 Speaker 1: to their defense, and any region conflict in that region 1442 01:15:14,680 --> 01:15:18,360 Speaker 1: would embroil us almost certainly give us treaty obligations. And 1443 01:15:18,439 --> 01:15:21,920 Speaker 1: so now the Japanese are dealing with Chinese missiles. This 1444 01:15:22,080 --> 01:15:25,120 Speaker 1: is like their greatest fear being fired into not only 1445 01:15:25,160 --> 01:15:28,559 Speaker 1: the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone, but also in six areas 1446 01:15:28,600 --> 01:15:32,080 Speaker 1: that are surrounding Taiwan in very contested water. So now 1447 01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:34,439 Speaker 1: the question is what are we going to do? Because 1448 01:15:34,479 --> 01:15:36,200 Speaker 1: what the Chinese did is they said we're going to 1449 01:15:36,240 --> 01:15:39,840 Speaker 1: be conducting live fire drills in these regions, basically saying 1450 01:15:40,120 --> 01:15:42,920 Speaker 1: don't come here, no aircraft and no ships. Are we 1451 01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:45,400 Speaker 1: going to abide by that? Are the Taiwanese going to 1452 01:15:45,479 --> 01:15:47,960 Speaker 1: abide by that? Are the Japanese going to abide by that? 1453 01:15:48,240 --> 01:15:50,519 Speaker 1: Are the South Koreans going to abide by that? And 1454 01:15:50,600 --> 01:15:54,759 Speaker 1: actually this morning extraordinary news Crystal, the South Korean president 1455 01:15:55,240 --> 01:15:58,800 Speaker 1: refused to meet with Nancy Pelosi Wow and she's in 1456 01:15:58,920 --> 01:16:03,840 Speaker 1: the country. Wow, he said, scheduling conflicts. Now, listen, South Korea, 1457 01:16:04,080 --> 01:16:06,280 Speaker 1: it's a small country. You can fly across it in 1458 01:16:06,439 --> 01:16:08,840 Speaker 1: like three hours, the entire thing. So there ain't no 1459 01:16:08,920 --> 01:16:11,800 Speaker 1: scheduling conflict's going to stop you from meeting with the 1460 01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:15,160 Speaker 1: Speaker of the House. Clearly he is not happy that whatever. 1461 01:16:15,920 --> 01:16:18,680 Speaker 1: He is not happy with her trip, doesn't want to 1462 01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:23,040 Speaker 1: meet with her. Possibly has domestic political considerations, but also 1463 01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,080 Speaker 1: the South Koreans have a hello, a lot of trade 1464 01:16:25,280 --> 01:16:27,360 Speaker 1: with China, and they have been on the back end 1465 01:16:27,600 --> 01:16:31,400 Speaker 1: of Chinese economic warfare in the past. These live fire drills, 1466 01:16:31,479 --> 01:16:33,680 Speaker 1: we don't yet know what the US military response is 1467 01:16:33,720 --> 01:16:36,240 Speaker 1: going to be. Are we going to respect the Chinese 1468 01:16:37,320 --> 01:16:40,200 Speaker 1: drug lines and the live fire drills? That's a huger question. 1469 01:16:40,400 --> 01:16:43,479 Speaker 1: Last time that there was a problem in the Taiwan Straits, 1470 01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:47,840 Speaker 1: we actually ran an entire naval group through the region 1471 01:16:47,960 --> 01:16:51,000 Speaker 1: as a massive display of US military force. That was 1472 01:16:51,040 --> 01:16:54,479 Speaker 1: in the nineteen nineties. Is that going to happen again, 1473 01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:56,720 Speaker 1: and then what is their response going to be. So 1474 01:16:56,880 --> 01:17:00,439 Speaker 1: now we have a multifaceted issue that we have to 1475 01:17:00,560 --> 01:17:05,160 Speaker 1: respond to. Solely of the making of Nancy Pelosi's narcissism. 1476 01:17:05,320 --> 01:17:07,200 Speaker 1: And for those who are like, listen, we can't let 1477 01:17:07,240 --> 01:17:10,320 Speaker 1: the Chinese dictate, you know, where our politicians go. I 1478 01:17:10,400 --> 01:17:12,840 Speaker 1: don't disagree with you, but that also doesn't mean that 1479 01:17:12,880 --> 01:17:17,439 Speaker 1: we should not be wise in our exactly like listen, 1480 01:17:18,080 --> 01:17:20,080 Speaker 1: And actually this was the best take I heard so far, 1481 01:17:20,400 --> 01:17:23,400 Speaker 1: which is Nancy go in December. You know why, because 1482 01:17:23,439 --> 01:17:26,439 Speaker 1: that's after g gets his third term and he go 1483 01:17:26,600 --> 01:17:28,640 Speaker 1: over there. It actually makes more sense because then you 1484 01:17:28,680 --> 01:17:31,439 Speaker 1: won't be speaker in January, so it's like a farewell tour. 1485 01:17:31,640 --> 01:17:33,439 Speaker 1: You can do your little you know, like I'm here, 1486 01:17:33,720 --> 01:17:37,760 Speaker 1: I support democracy. Why now, it's like these things are 1487 01:17:37,960 --> 01:17:40,880 Speaker 1: conscious choices on behalf of the US government, and people 1488 01:17:40,880 --> 01:17:43,320 Speaker 1: are trying to turn it into a principle. On the principle, 1489 01:17:43,360 --> 01:17:45,720 Speaker 1: I don't disagree, but my point is she should never 1490 01:17:45,760 --> 01:17:48,479 Speaker 1: have put she has put us in a terrible position. Well, 1491 01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:51,960 Speaker 1: not to mention, did the American people vote for Nancy 1492 01:17:52,000 --> 01:17:54,320 Speaker 1: Pelosi to run, No, they did. They voted for Joe Biden. 1493 01:17:54,520 --> 01:17:57,000 Speaker 1: They voted for Joe Biden. And listen, sometimes that's been 1494 01:17:57,040 --> 01:17:59,360 Speaker 1: okay and sometimes it's been terrible. But at least there 1495 01:17:59,479 --> 01:18:01,519 Speaker 1: was a safe on the public about who they wanted 1496 01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:04,120 Speaker 1: to be in charge of these things. So let's I 1497 01:18:04,160 --> 01:18:07,600 Speaker 1: continue to be skeptical that I continue to not be 1498 01:18:07,640 --> 01:18:10,719 Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure that she really did this totally 1499 01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:13,439 Speaker 1: with the White House saying absolutely not. Biden did not 1500 01:18:13,520 --> 01:18:15,840 Speaker 1: call her directly, but let's take it face value that 1501 01:18:15,920 --> 01:18:18,200 Speaker 1: this was her freelancing and just doing whatever the hell 1502 01:18:18,320 --> 01:18:21,960 Speaker 1: she wanted to do. It is so incredibly insane, so 1503 01:18:22,280 --> 01:18:27,479 Speaker 1: anti democratic, and you know, these wargames that China's running 1504 01:18:27,520 --> 01:18:31,000 Speaker 1: that almost completely encircle the island of Taiwan. This is 1505 01:18:31,280 --> 01:18:35,760 Speaker 1: essentially like a mock invasion. So it's extraordinarily ominous and 1506 01:18:35,880 --> 01:18:40,360 Speaker 1: troubling if you are on if you were Taiwanese. And 1507 01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:45,240 Speaker 1: they also have are set to impose economic sanctions against Taiwan. 1508 01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:47,080 Speaker 1: Now they say that that's for they made up some 1509 01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:49,839 Speaker 1: reason why they're doing this, but they've announced a suspension 1510 01:18:49,880 --> 01:18:53,320 Speaker 1: on the import of certain fruits and seafood products from 1511 01:18:53,439 --> 01:18:56,240 Speaker 1: the island Chinese customs and separate statement they pegged the 1512 01:18:56,280 --> 01:18:59,360 Speaker 1: suspensions to hygiene concerns. But this is apparently not the 1513 01:18:59,439 --> 01:19:03,120 Speaker 1: first time that they have used, you know, the weapon 1514 01:19:03,160 --> 01:19:06,120 Speaker 1: of economics and trade in order to punish Taiwan for 1515 01:19:06,280 --> 01:19:08,799 Speaker 1: things that they were not happy about. So the biggest 1516 01:19:08,880 --> 01:19:12,400 Speaker 1: costs immediately that will be born are the Taiwanese people directly. Yes, 1517 01:19:12,479 --> 01:19:16,400 Speaker 1: And what I worry about the most is unintended miscalculation. 1518 01:19:16,640 --> 01:19:18,840 Speaker 1: So a lot of people forget this because it happened 1519 01:19:18,880 --> 01:19:21,439 Speaker 1: right before nine to eleven. But there was this incident 1520 01:19:21,560 --> 01:19:24,439 Speaker 1: on I think it's called Hainan Island where a US 1521 01:19:24,600 --> 01:19:28,840 Speaker 1: military spy plane was flying and actually collided mid air 1522 01:19:29,240 --> 01:19:33,439 Speaker 1: with a Chinese jet. That aircraft, the spy aircraft was 1523 01:19:33,479 --> 01:19:35,960 Speaker 1: then forced to be downed on It was a Chinese 1524 01:19:36,080 --> 01:19:40,719 Speaker 1: territory called Hainan Island. This ignited a global crisis because 1525 01:19:41,120 --> 01:19:45,040 Speaker 1: we had our airmen spy you know, spy aircraft airmen 1526 01:19:45,400 --> 01:19:49,040 Speaker 1: stranded in China and the Bush administration had to go 1527 01:19:49,280 --> 01:19:53,080 Speaker 1: and get them. It ignited serious issues. The Chinese were like, 1528 01:19:53,160 --> 01:19:56,080 Speaker 1: you're encroaching on our airsprace. They accused us of like 1529 01:19:56,240 --> 01:19:58,960 Speaker 1: downing their aircraft, and we had to like send some 1530 01:19:59,040 --> 01:20:01,439 Speaker 1: people over. There was a high ice stakes diplomatic gamble. 1531 01:20:01,439 --> 01:20:03,560 Speaker 1: Basically nine to eleven happens, So everybody forgot about it. 1532 01:20:03,640 --> 01:20:07,000 Speaker 1: But look, I mean it's been twenty years. How would 1533 01:20:07,040 --> 01:20:09,879 Speaker 1: that play right now? I mean we had these issues, 1534 01:20:09,920 --> 01:20:14,519 Speaker 1: and this only increases the likelihood of exactly something like that. 1535 01:20:14,600 --> 01:20:17,400 Speaker 1: And apparently I'm not the only one thinking this. David Sanger, 1536 01:20:17,439 --> 01:20:20,040 Speaker 1: who is like the dean of the Washington Foreign policy 1537 01:20:20,120 --> 01:20:23,200 Speaker 1: press in the New York Times right specifically that the 1538 01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:28,520 Speaker 1: administration is incredibly worried exactly about some sort of military 1539 01:20:28,600 --> 01:20:31,720 Speaker 1: incursion that leads to airspace midair conflict, which is not 1540 01:20:31,840 --> 01:20:34,920 Speaker 1: only this, but also missiles. You know, look, missiles whenever 1541 01:20:34,960 --> 01:20:36,599 Speaker 1: they're fired. Part of the issue that we were always 1542 01:20:36,600 --> 01:20:38,840 Speaker 1: so terrified with the North Koreans is they wouldn't tell 1543 01:20:38,840 --> 01:20:40,800 Speaker 1: anybody that something was happening. It could hit a seven 1544 01:20:40,840 --> 01:20:43,479 Speaker 1: thirty seven, and actually it came close one time. So 1545 01:20:44,000 --> 01:20:47,479 Speaker 1: these all sorts of unintended consequences, especially when you're shooting 1546 01:20:47,600 --> 01:20:50,960 Speaker 1: over Japanese island and landing in economic zones. I mean, 1547 01:20:51,040 --> 01:20:53,439 Speaker 1: there are ships and global shipping containers, there are people 1548 01:20:53,800 --> 01:20:55,920 Speaker 1: all over these places, and when you start to play 1549 01:20:56,120 --> 01:20:59,720 Speaker 1: with real guns, you know, it can raise the stakes significantly. 1550 01:21:00,000 --> 01:21:03,719 Speaker 1: What they say is that right now inside the Pentagon 1551 01:21:04,080 --> 01:21:07,680 Speaker 1: there is an incredible amount of worry about how to 1552 01:21:07,840 --> 01:21:12,280 Speaker 1: respond to this military exercise. They don't know what to do. 1553 01:21:12,840 --> 01:21:15,960 Speaker 1: They also don't know what the next step is from there. 1554 01:21:16,080 --> 01:21:18,840 Speaker 1: So the amount of uncertainty that Nancy Pelosi has injected 1555 01:21:19,240 --> 01:21:23,320 Speaker 1: into the global strategic environment is just immense. And I 1556 01:21:23,400 --> 01:21:27,720 Speaker 1: want to emphasize again Ukraine. Look, yes, Americans have paid 1557 01:21:27,840 --> 01:21:31,400 Speaker 1: hundreds of billions of dollars with Ukraine. It is nothing 1558 01:21:31,920 --> 01:21:35,880 Speaker 1: compared to what even let's say a one week shutdown 1559 01:21:36,200 --> 01:21:39,040 Speaker 1: of the Taiwan Straits would look like the US economy. 1560 01:21:39,360 --> 01:21:41,759 Speaker 1: There are no more phones, there are no more television, 1561 01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:45,240 Speaker 1: there's no consumer electronics, there's no more fridges if TSMC 1562 01:21:45,640 --> 01:21:50,000 Speaker 1: goes down tomorrow. Beyond that, gas, the amount of oil 1563 01:21:50,280 --> 01:21:54,360 Speaker 1: of hard commodities that ship between China and the United States. 1564 01:21:54,600 --> 01:21:56,880 Speaker 1: Not to mention Chinese industry, a lot of people do 1565 01:21:57,000 --> 01:21:59,760 Speaker 1: not notice this, and I have very mixed feelings of 1566 01:21:59,800 --> 01:22:02,920 Speaker 1: the largest EV battery manufacturers in the world. A Chinese 1567 01:22:02,960 --> 01:22:04,800 Speaker 1: company was about to open a plant here in the US, 1568 01:22:05,160 --> 01:22:06,320 Speaker 1: and now they're like, well, we're not going to do 1569 01:22:06,360 --> 01:22:08,519 Speaker 1: it because of the Taiwanese And I'm like, well, it's 1570 01:22:08,720 --> 01:22:11,000 Speaker 1: not terrible things. You don't really want the Chinese EV 1571 01:22:11,320 --> 01:22:13,880 Speaker 1: battery manufacturer, but it just tells you, Like book, they 1572 01:22:13,920 --> 01:22:15,800 Speaker 1: have a lot of investment. They have a lot of 1573 01:22:16,080 --> 01:22:17,880 Speaker 1: power that they can play, and that was really the 1574 01:22:17,920 --> 01:22:21,160 Speaker 1: tip of the iceberg too. So beyond their own control 1575 01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:24,920 Speaker 1: of our economy, a one week, two week shutdown, even 1576 01:22:24,920 --> 01:22:27,800 Speaker 1: a couple of days would the amount of chaos it 1577 01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:31,640 Speaker 1: would inject into the global economy is just very, very 1578 01:22:31,720 --> 01:22:34,360 Speaker 1: difficult to actually convey so well, And it is worth 1579 01:22:34,400 --> 01:22:37,280 Speaker 1: saying that the politicians who let us to that place 1580 01:22:37,400 --> 01:22:39,320 Speaker 1: deserve a lot of blame for putting us in that 1581 01:22:40,120 --> 01:22:43,760 Speaker 1: state of fragility and you know, state of precarity, which 1582 01:22:43,880 --> 01:22:46,800 Speaker 1: I think is extraordinarily important not to lose sight of. 1583 01:22:47,120 --> 01:22:49,560 Speaker 1: There is one other piece from a legislative perspective that 1584 01:22:49,560 --> 01:22:51,160 Speaker 1: I just saw this morning. So the White House is 1585 01:22:51,240 --> 01:22:56,880 Speaker 1: also lobbying Democrats against a legislative bid to deepen Taiwan ties. 1586 01:22:57,120 --> 01:23:01,400 Speaker 1: This proposal, which is being sponsored by Menendez who's a Democrat, 1587 01:23:01,439 --> 01:23:04,759 Speaker 1: and Lindsay Graham of course, as a Republican, would designate 1588 01:23:04,840 --> 01:23:09,360 Speaker 1: Taiwan as a major non NATO ally and could further 1589 01:23:09,560 --> 01:23:12,519 Speaker 1: inflame tensions with China, and the White House is very 1590 01:23:12,560 --> 01:23:15,559 Speaker 1: concerned about this as well. It would also provide Taiwan 1591 01:23:15,680 --> 01:23:18,400 Speaker 1: with four and a half billion dollars in additional security 1592 01:23:18,439 --> 01:23:22,080 Speaker 1: aid and support its participation in international organizations. But in 1593 01:23:22,160 --> 01:23:25,360 Speaker 1: some ways the designation, you know, that sort of official 1594 01:23:25,439 --> 01:23:28,840 Speaker 1: designation as a major non NATO ally is the most 1595 01:23:28,840 --> 01:23:30,960 Speaker 1: significant part. So the White House is trying to slow 1596 01:23:31,280 --> 01:23:34,839 Speaker 1: that down as well, so that they don't further escalate 1597 01:23:35,120 --> 01:23:38,120 Speaker 1: an already tense situation with China. Yeah, I just everybody 1598 01:23:38,439 --> 01:23:43,439 Speaker 1: eyes on Taiwan on the US military response. Josh Rogan, 1599 01:23:43,439 --> 01:23:45,639 Speaker 1: who actually was supporter of the trip, but I actually 1600 01:23:45,680 --> 01:23:47,240 Speaker 1: think he had quite a good column, which is that 1601 01:23:47,360 --> 01:23:49,960 Speaker 1: the fallout from the Pelosi visit it starts now. It's 1602 01:23:50,040 --> 01:23:52,880 Speaker 1: really today, August fourth is the first day of the 1603 01:23:53,000 --> 01:23:55,680 Speaker 1: live fire drills. Those are now going to continue over 1604 01:23:55,720 --> 01:23:57,800 Speaker 1: the next couple of days. Next question is what's the 1605 01:23:57,920 --> 01:23:59,880 Speaker 1: US military do. So now we're going to have to 1606 01:24:00,120 --> 01:24:03,240 Speaker 1: have our response, the Pacific Command and all of that, 1607 01:24:03,400 --> 01:24:06,200 Speaker 1: where our ship's aircraft carriers they are going to be stationed. 1608 01:24:06,320 --> 01:24:08,479 Speaker 1: Then the Chinese are going to do something about it. 1609 01:24:08,560 --> 01:24:11,240 Speaker 1: So this is a month's long problem, and I also 1610 01:24:11,280 --> 01:24:13,160 Speaker 1: feel for the people in Taiwan. Like you just said, 1611 01:24:13,400 --> 01:24:17,200 Speaker 1: economic sanctions being placed there on the Taiwanese. China has 1612 01:24:17,240 --> 01:24:20,400 Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of leverage over the Taiwanese economy. We 1613 01:24:20,520 --> 01:24:24,120 Speaker 1: have also prevailed on China not to arm Russia, yes, 1614 01:24:24,240 --> 01:24:28,480 Speaker 1: directly support military aid Russia, and that has been successful. 1615 01:24:28,479 --> 01:24:31,800 Speaker 1: I mean, China has hasately supported Russia in a lot 1616 01:24:31,880 --> 01:24:34,040 Speaker 1: of ways, but hasn't sort of directly gotten involved in 1617 01:24:34,120 --> 01:24:36,040 Speaker 1: that conflict. That's another chip they hold in all of this. 1618 01:24:36,280 --> 01:24:39,360 Speaker 1: So great point. And also the Russians did support the 1619 01:24:39,960 --> 01:24:42,800 Speaker 1: did actually support the Chinese and said that the US 1620 01:24:42,840 --> 01:24:46,559 Speaker 1: should not meddle in Taiwan, and they called it internal sovereignty. 1621 01:24:46,760 --> 01:24:49,080 Speaker 1: Obviously they have an incentive to look at the world 1622 01:24:49,160 --> 01:24:52,400 Speaker 1: yeah that way. But you know, alliance between the two 1623 01:24:52,720 --> 01:24:54,920 Speaker 1: was one of the nightmares of the Cold War in 1624 01:24:55,000 --> 01:24:57,840 Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties, So lots of stuff that's going on there.