1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: today's best minds. And Peter Navarro says that blocking tariffs 4 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: would be the end of. 5 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:15,960 Speaker 2: The United States. 6 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: I don't think that's right. We have such a great 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 1: show for you today. George Conway stops by to talk 8 00:00:23,400 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: about Trump's lawlessness. Then we'll talk to Yale Budget Lab's 9 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: own Natasha Sarin about the effects of tariffs on the economy. 10 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: But first we have the most important stories that aren't 11 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: getting the attention they deserve. 12 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 3: Molly, So the Supreme Court, they really have become the 13 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 3: people who just really really rule these big decisions in America, 14 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 3: and well, now the fate of the US economy may 15 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 3: lie with it. 16 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think we pull back for a minute. Here. 17 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: Trump is crashing the United States economy because he believes 18 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: that tariffs will bring back manufacturing, and more importantly, he 19 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: can use them to punish people he's mad at. 20 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,120 Speaker 4: Trade wars are easy to win, as I recall, Yes. 21 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 1: They're good and easy to win. I was told. So 22 00:01:09,480 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: here's what's happening. We have what looks to be a 23 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: pretty great showdown between the Koch Brother, who is set 24 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 1: up because there's only one now, and Leonard Leo perhaps 25 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: you'll remember him from episode one Buying the Supreme Court. 26 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: The Koch brother and Leonard Leo are together. They are 27 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 1: the challengers. So they have put together a particularly amazing 28 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: case called Simplified at All versus Trump at All. And 29 00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 1: Simplified is a company with a CEO called Emily Lay. 30 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: She has a principle of based company owned by her 31 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: and several other Florida companies, and they are challenging Trump's 32 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: attempt to rely on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act IPA. Now, 33 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: I want to say something about EPA. IPA never says 34 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 1: the word tariffs in it, which is sort of amazing. 35 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: The idea here is that Trump is using an emergency 36 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:08,800 Speaker 1: power that he doesn't have. Now we know that the 37 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 1: power of the purse is supposed to be with Congress 38 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: tariff's taxes, budget spending all Congress. Now, Donald Trump subscribes 39 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:20,839 Speaker 1: to the unitary executive theory, which means nothing because it's 40 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: completely made up. But the idea here is that he 41 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: is the boss of everyone and forever and ever and ever, 42 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: and the United States is now basically his family business, 43 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 1: and he duels out what he likes to people he 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: likes and not to other people. And if you anger him, 45 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: you're fucked. And if you don't, you may get a 46 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: job in the admin. And so now this case so far, 47 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: you know, look, it's the idea that Donald Trump doesn't 48 00:02:47,880 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: have a complete blank check to ruin our economy seems 49 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:55,920 Speaker 1: pretty reasonable. I hate to side with the Koch brother here, 50 00:02:55,960 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: but I think he's got a pretty good point. 51 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 4: I might have just think of those team checks and balances. 52 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, sure, Wait, I don't think these people have ever 53 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 1: been for checks and balances. 54 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 4: Well, it's true, but in this case, it is what 55 00:03:09,720 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 4: it is. 56 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: It's the worst person you know, meme right here, right, 57 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 1: the worst person you know has a good idea. So 58 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: here's what's going to happen. This is going to the 59 00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: Supreme Court, and the Supreme Court is going to have 60 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: to decide. They may pretend to have some ideological bullshit, 61 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:30,440 Speaker 1: some clap trap it's textualism or internetalism or the unitary 62 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: executive shopping on the Internet, but here's what it's going 63 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:35,200 Speaker 1: to be. They're going to figure out who they owe 64 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: to do they owe does John Roberts need to make 65 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: Donald Trump happy or does he want to make the 66 00:03:42,440 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: Koch brother who's paid for all their vacations and Leonard 67 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,200 Speaker 1: Leo and they're big money people happy. And I don't 68 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: know what's the answer is. I do know that Trump World, 69 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: like with so many things, has cooked it up to eleven. 70 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 1: We have Peter Navarro saying it will be the end 71 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: of America. You have you know, they are off right, 72 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,120 Speaker 1: they're all cooked out because they are super jacked on 73 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: the idea that Donald Trump should be able to do tariffs. 74 00:04:05,560 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 1: But I think it's important to remember we're not really 75 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 1: seeing what's happening because these tariffs are just starting to 76 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: be implemented, right, We're not seeing exactly what this is 77 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 1: going to be like. But this is wildly inflationary. And 78 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: you know, you have a situation where Donald Trump. All 79 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: Donald Trump wants is for the Fed to cut interest 80 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 1: rates because he thinks that if the Fed cuts interest rates, 81 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: the market will rocket. And that's why the market it 82 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: keeps not backing down when Trump puts in these tariffs. Now, 83 00:04:35,520 --> 00:04:38,279 Speaker 1: here's what's going to happen. If you are any person 84 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: who understands the economy at all, and you don't even 85 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 1: need to understand the economy. You can just need to 86 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: understand what happened with Nixon. So Nixon pressured the Fed 87 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,880 Speaker 1: to lower interest rates because he was running for reelection. 88 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 1: The Fed lowered interest rates for Nixon. Nixon won. Interest 89 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:58,719 Speaker 1: rates were low, Stagflation rocketed. The economy was in a 90 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 1: recession with inflation, and that's what stiflation is, and that 91 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:05,920 Speaker 1: I think is a very likely scenario here. 92 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: Sami Axios Ipsos did a survey. Got to tell you, 93 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: while people like the idea of making America healthy again, 94 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 3: they don't like the things RFK Junior is doing here. 95 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm shocked. I am shocked that the guy who 96 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 1: is dismantling the health Department is not more popular. Kennedy 97 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 1: has a vested interest, right, he gets money from the 98 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 1: vaccine lawsuits. Okay, so he is connected to a personal 99 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: injury law firm that employs Kennedy's son, Connor, and it's 100 00:05:39,400 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: leading litigation against merk after about alleged serious side effects 101 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 1: from its HPV vaccine Guardassol. There is Kennedy has profited 102 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 1: from the consulting deal with the firm, and he would 103 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,080 Speaker 1: retain a ten percent stake in the fees awarded by 104 00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 1: the court. He is now about to make it so 105 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,839 Speaker 1: that vaccine lawsuits won't be capped anymore. I mean, this 106 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: is just like an insane, insane, insane way to run 107 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: the Health Department. It just is completely insane. And the 108 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: fact that this is still going on is you know, 109 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 1: these people are so so, so, so conflicted, and that's 110 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 1: where it is. 111 00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I'd really like to see the Democratic leadership 112 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 3: taking stances about it. I mean, we see Bernie Sanders 113 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 3: demanding his resignation, and they should be making every Republican 114 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 3: waanemaker accountable that they're allowing him to stay on and 115 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:36,120 Speaker 3: not calling for it too. 116 00:06:36,279 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: Ye. 117 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 3: Well, Interestingly, Illinois JB. Pritzker is leading a charge that 118 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: other Democratic governors should take up, I think, which is 119 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 3: that Trump's decapitation the CDC really should be a. 120 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 4: Thing that we all are screaming with our air on 121 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 4: fire about. 122 00:06:50,360 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: Yeah. And I think it's important to remember Hikim may 123 00:06:53,760 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 1: not have the majority, but he is certainly able to 124 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: start impeachment hearings, and it's a real question as to 125 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: why he's not. The thing that's bad is they're dismantling 126 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,480 Speaker 1: the federal government. The thing that is, if you're going 127 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 1: to try to find a bright spot here, is that 128 00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: if they're dismantling the federal government, then states can pick 129 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: up the slack to some degree. I mean, they're not 130 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,560 Speaker 1: going to have the kind of money the federal government does. 131 00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:21,360 Speaker 1: And you have to wonder why we pay federal taxes, right, 132 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: you know, if Alabama wants to have Donald Trump steal 133 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: all their money, let them. But why should we New 134 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: York and Massachusetts and Vermont and Maine and New Hampshire. 135 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: Why do we have to send our tax dollars so 136 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: that Elon Musk can get huge tax right offs? I mean, 137 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: why should we be financing this? 138 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 4: Beats the hell out of me. 139 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 3: So this weekend, unfortunately, we couldn't go a weekend with 140 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 3: a totally silent truth social post. 141 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 1: Despite the fact that he's basically been home all weekend. Yes, yes, 142 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: I'm playing Phantom of the Opera and that all of. 143 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,880 Speaker 3: God, that really was one of the more funny stories 144 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 3: of what everybody was expeculating if he's alive or not. 145 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 4: It's like, well, that's definitely a yeah. 146 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I mean I'm telling you. One of my 147 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 1: favorite things about Donald Trump, his like playing music, and 148 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: is that this guy has gotten really far by being 149 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: really weird. People like the weirdness. They just it's just 150 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: the fascism and the racism and misogyny, stupidity, stupidity. 151 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 4: Well, speaking of the stupidity. 152 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,280 Speaker 1: The wastefulness, yes, going, but otherwise good. 153 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 3: Here's what he said on true social voter ID must 154 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 3: be a part of every single vote, no exceptions. I 155 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,560 Speaker 3: will be doing an executive order to that end. Also, 156 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 3: no mailion voting except for those that are very ill 157 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: in the far away military. 158 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:52,319 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what, all these executive orders are not real. 159 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,359 Speaker 1: And this guy, by the way, stop taking him seriously 160 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: or literally or anything. Yeah, it's all hooey. You know, 161 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: he doesn't have the right to do any of this bullshit. 162 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: Just ignore it. It's not true. It's like, you know, 163 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: it's like when you have a parent with dementia. Yes, grandpa, Yes, grandpa, 164 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 1: we'll do that next time. Grandpa. By the way, looking 165 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: forward to Jake Tapper his book on Trump's house, what's 166 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: happening with that? 167 00:09:22,240 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 3: Well, what I saw this morning is he was dunking 168 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 3: on people on Twitter. So I don't think he's working 169 00:09:26,679 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 3: on it. 170 00:09:27,280 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 1: No, it's too bad. George Conway is the host of 171 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: George Conway explains it all. Welcome to Fast Politics. George Conway, 172 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: how are you. I'm good. I want you to talk 173 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: about what's happening right now with Donald Trump, because it 174 00:09:45,679 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: seems as if none of this is legal. We're every 175 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 1: day we see cords say none of this is legal. 176 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 1: I want you to talk to us about this. I 177 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: feel like the underlying thing we keep seeing is that 178 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:00,720 Speaker 1: none of is legal. 179 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 5: It's not that complicated from a legal standpoint. We elected 180 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:11,320 Speaker 5: a criminal and he's president, and consistent with the patterns 181 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:13,960 Speaker 5: he showed prior to being president and when he was 182 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 5: president previously. He doesn't believe in rules and laws. That's 183 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,599 Speaker 5: why he's was a criminal. That's why he was convicted. 184 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:24,920 Speaker 5: That's why he's so they don't He doesn't think they 185 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 5: apply to him. That's why he owes eaging Carol eighty 186 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,839 Speaker 5: eight million dollars. And here we are. I mean, and 187 00:10:31,880 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 5: this is the difference between Trump two and Trump one. 188 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 5: To get a little more serious, but it really is 189 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:42,320 Speaker 5: that simplistic. Is that there's nobody to say stop. He 190 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 5: doesn't have people around him who have enough respect for 191 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 5: the law, respect for the constitution, respect for the country, 192 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 5: respect for their themselves. Really to basically say we can't 193 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 5: do that, sir, or figure out some way to distract him, 194 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 5: like by taking things off his desk. Remember that Ryan Harris, 195 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:06,560 Speaker 5: a fellow from Goldman Sachs, did that. Nobody can do that, 196 00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 5: Harry Cohen, Because yes, answer me this. 197 00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 1: One of the things that in other countries they're shocked 198 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 1: by about us is how craven and pathetic and cowardly 199 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: our billionaires have acted. Are just different groups have just 200 00:11:26,559 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: caved in a truly pathetic, cowardly way. Are you surprised 201 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 1: and why have you not? Yes? 202 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 5: If you would ask me six or seven years ago, 203 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 5: will I be surprised if this happens, I would have 204 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 5: been surprised. I am really not that surprised anymore. Because 205 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 5: I went through the first term of Trump thinking, oh, people, 206 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 5: sooner or later, people are just gonna say fuck this, 207 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 5: I can't deal with this enough. And I thought, actually 208 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 5: Republicans would do that, Republican senators, Republican members of Congress. 209 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 5: And it turned out no. People are very narrowly focused 210 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:10,480 Speaker 5: on their own interests, what benefits them at a given moment, 211 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 5: and I don't mean that necessarily that because everybody's profiting 212 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:19,720 Speaker 5: off those some people are yes, and some people we 213 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 5: know and they they talk people you were married to. 214 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 5: No comment there. But also people are acting in their 215 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 5: own self interest in the sense that they don't want trouble. 216 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 5: They like their lives the way there is. They they 217 00:12:34,600 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 5: go on there, you know, they do their social media, 218 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,040 Speaker 5: or they have their jobs, and if it doesn't directly 219 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 5: affect them, then there's really no point because I can't 220 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,079 Speaker 5: we can't do anything about it. And it's a it's 221 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 5: it's really a failure of collective action. It's it's the 222 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 5: it's the prisoner's dilemma problem. But it's also you know, 223 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 5: if there's a spectrum, there's a spectrum from pure corruption. 224 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 5: There's a spectrum from hatred. Okay, there's your Stephen Miller 225 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 5: pathological hatred, to the people who are just trying to 226 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,839 Speaker 5: kind of make a name for themselves, the people who 227 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 5: are drifting off the government, people who are just afraid 228 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 5: but don't see any alternative but to just go along, 229 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 5: people who just don't want to hear anything about it. 230 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:21,839 Speaker 5: And then there are the rest of us. And it's 231 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:26,480 Speaker 5: a spectrum of ranging. For you know, from apathy to 232 00:13:27,320 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 5: absolute you know, corruption, corruption, and that's where we are. 233 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 5: We don't have the balance of people that we take 234 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:39,480 Speaker 5: right now to stop it. 235 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:43,719 Speaker 1: Do you think there will be a time when the 236 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 1: math will be sad that there will be Republicans who say, really, it's. 237 00:13:51,360 --> 00:13:54,280 Speaker 5: Not going to be the Republicans. They're not capable of 238 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 5: the people. The people who are Republicans or were Republicans 239 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,960 Speaker 5: who are speaking out and doing something are the ones 240 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 5: that you see, Okay, we're here. They're just a they're 241 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 5: a handful of us, but there, we're here. The rest 242 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 5: of the people who have, if you have a semblance 243 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 5: of a conscience, what most people have been doing from 244 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 5: inside the Republican Party is just getting out of politics. 245 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 5: See Paul Ryan. They're numerous examples examples of pretty good 246 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 5: people who just basically just quit now. I mean, Jeff 247 00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 5: Flake was sort of in the middle, for example, because 248 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 5: he actually spoke out, but you know, he's just gone. 249 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 5: He's gone, and he's living some nice life somewhere. You know, 250 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,960 Speaker 5: ear much and so many other people. And now Jodie Earnest. 251 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 5: I think part of the reason why she quit was 252 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 5: not just because she said stupid shit I think she 253 00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 5: actually has a conscience in there somewhere, And I think, 254 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 5: and somebody put it to me the other day, it's like, 255 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 5: I think the hegset thing took a lot out of her, 256 00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 5: the fact that she couldn't bring herself she could didn't 257 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 5: feel she had the political power as a United States 258 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 5: senator with an expertise in the sexual and sexual sexual assault, 259 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 5: that she felt that she couldn't do what she knew 260 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 5: was the right thing to do with hag Seth. I 261 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 5: think that took a lot out of her. And I 262 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 5: think that took I think that it caused her to 263 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 5: do something she's not. She's a she's a political, politically 264 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 5: savvy woman, I think. But that that whole bit whether 265 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 5: we're all going to die, she just I think she 266 00:15:32,320 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 5: just lost her mojo because of the cognitive dissonance that 267 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,480 Speaker 5: Trump enforces on the right. So I don't I don't 268 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 5: think if we if we're going to save ourselves, isn't 269 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:45,480 Speaker 5: going to be from the Republicans. 270 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 1: But eventually the calculus will be such. This is a question, 271 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: not a statement that people will decide it's better to 272 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: get off the Trump train or no. Ever, they just 273 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 1: ride it into the. 274 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 5: I don't know. I mean, I mean, you would have 275 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 5: thought the Germans would have figured that out long before night, 276 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 5: but long before May nineteen forty five, but they didn't. 277 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 5: And it's the problem is how much damage is going 278 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 5: to be done before people reach that point? Or alternatively, 279 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 5: I think he, you know, he's going to blow himself 280 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 5: up somehow, one way or the other. And whether it's 281 00:16:31,760 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 5: whether it's you know, whether it's after everything around him 282 00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 5: has can been completely obliterated, whether it's somewhere before then, 283 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 5: we don't know. I mean, it's really a question. Is 284 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 5: my favorite phrase I said, it's not a pretty phrase 285 00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 5: to describe the issue here is what's the blast radio 286 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 5: is going to be when he blows himself up? And 287 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 5: it could be the entire country. Very optimistic moment. 288 00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: We're clearly heading towards catastrophe. And I don't you know, 289 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: like if you look at the way they're stripping the 290 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: federal government right regulation when it comes to stable coin, 291 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:11,679 Speaker 1: when it comes to banking, when it comes to the FED, 292 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: when it comes to health and human services, stripping that 293 00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:18,720 Speaker 1: that section of the government right. So we're not prepared 294 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 1: for a pandemic. We're not prepared for a financial crisis. 295 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 1: We're not prepared for this. 296 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 4: For that. 297 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: For you know, the DoD is being run by a 298 00:17:26,680 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 1: weekend television host. As someone who sometimes hosts weekend television, 299 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: I can tell you we are not equipped. Okay, So 300 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: the question is, you know, as you're watching this sort 301 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: of marble run, where are you the most concerned? 302 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:44,360 Speaker 2: Oh? 303 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,640 Speaker 5: I mean, I absolutely think the science stuff is very concerning. 304 00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 5: I think that you know, the whole what's called the 305 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 5: notion and it doesn't even really make sense from Trump's 306 00:17:56,040 --> 00:18:00,199 Speaker 5: individual standpoint, the notion that you put this anti his 307 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 5: probably his single most significant accomplishment in his first term 308 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 5: was Operation warp speeding. He likes to talk, but only 309 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 5: in private. And yet who does he have as his 310 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 5: health secretary? Mister we don't believe in experts, brain words, okay. 311 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 5: Who is basically gutting the national medical establishment And so 312 00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 5: it's crazy. But on the other hand, if you look 313 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:33,159 Speaker 5: at it from a broader standpoint, that what a malignant 314 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:37,400 Speaker 5: narcissist like Donald Trump, who is surrounded by other malignant narcissists, 315 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 5: what those characters are like, what those personality types are like, 316 00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 5: is that they ultimately seek the structure they want to 317 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 5: control things, but they want to destroy everything that they 318 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 5: can't control, and that includes things that benefit the public, 319 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 5: including FEMA, including NIH and go down the list. It's 320 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 5: just things that they feel are not within their control. 321 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 5: Because those people are people who rely on facts and 322 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:10,920 Speaker 5: objective logic and reason and will express disagreement from time 323 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,920 Speaker 5: to time or very frequently with the government. 324 00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 1: I'm going to read you a quote from the Sunday Shows. 325 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: I want your hottest take. I gave up everything for this. 326 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, my wife is struggling. I stare 327 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 1: at these four walls all day in DC, you know, 328 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:29,680 Speaker 1: by myself divorced from my wife, not divorced, I mean, 329 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: but separated. It's hard. Do you know who that is? 330 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,679 Speaker 1: Dan Bongino, the FBI. 331 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,200 Speaker 5: I don't know what to make of that. My take 332 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 5: on bang Bongino has changed over the course of the 333 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 5: last several months. I thought he was a crazy yahoo, 334 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:54,680 Speaker 5: which he was and may still be. But I do 335 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 5: think somewhere in there, and this was reflected in the 336 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:02,959 Speaker 5: way he dealt with you know, his position basically and 337 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 5: also specifically the Epstein files, I think there's a he's 338 00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 5: another one of these people where there actually is a 339 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:16,840 Speaker 5: conscience in there, and I think he realizes that what's 340 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 5: going on in the FBI isn't necessary. This is my project, 341 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 5: this is I'm projecting this onto him. 342 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so it. 343 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 5: Could be I could be completely wrong that he sees 344 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 5: that maybe this isn't the best course for the FBI. 345 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,720 Speaker 5: This isn't this isn't what I signed up for long 346 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 5: ago when I first became a law enforcement officer. And 347 00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,159 Speaker 5: he knows what's in the Epstein stuff, and there's something 348 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 5: in there that really really really bothered him about something 349 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,919 Speaker 5: for somebody. Yeah, so that's what I think is going on. 350 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 5: And then at the same time, after the let's call 351 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 5: it a stunt, but I you know, I don't mean 352 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:55,359 Speaker 5: that critically, because he actually was doing something useful. But 353 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 5: after what he pulls when he objected to after what 354 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 5: he did when he objected to the release non release 355 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 5: of the Epstein files, you know, the fact that he 356 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:10,479 Speaker 5: is still there and wasn't fired and removed and instead 357 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,720 Speaker 5: they're just putting another person in there right next to 358 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 5: him tells you something about what the White House thinks 359 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 5: of Bongino. They are afraid of him for some reason. 360 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 5: I don't know if that's at that counts as a 361 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 5: hot take. But that's my take on him. No hot 362 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 5: it's time of nuanced. 363 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: It's a hot take, and I think more importantly, there's definitely. 364 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 5: Something a thoughtful take. 365 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:38,960 Speaker 1: Something rotten in the state of Denmark. 366 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, no, I mean it's a thoughtful take. Like I'm 367 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,560 Speaker 5: not one of these people who decides someone does a 368 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,440 Speaker 5: bunch of bad things, they're permanently bad unless it's done. Yeah, Donald, 369 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 5: beyond redemption. You know, I think that everybody's capable of 370 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 5: good things and bad things. Some people. The mix changes 371 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 5: over time. And I think it's Bongino. I think there's 372 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 5: something there with him, even though he said he said 373 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 5: you know, I mean, he said some pretty nasty things 374 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 5: about me on social media and I have been but 375 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,879 Speaker 5: I you know, I'd like to get the guy drunk 376 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 5: and find out what's going on. 377 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 1: Yes, we love drinking. Let me ask you all right too. Yeah, 378 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: that's really body. But this week there's going to be 379 00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:26,840 Speaker 1: a lot more Ebstein stuff because we're going to see Yeah, 380 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: we're going to see a big press conference ten Ebstein survivors. 381 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: May there are more than two hundred survivors. 382 00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,680 Speaker 5: This is tall think I think there's there are I 383 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 5: think there are over a thousand. 384 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, so there are a lot. The point is these guys, 385 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 1: this may have been this guy, jeff Ray Epstein, may 386 00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: have been the biggest sex trafficker, one of the biggest ever. 387 00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:50,359 Speaker 5: Many people are saying this. 388 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,359 Speaker 1: Many people are saying like swimen, beautiful women, some of 389 00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: them on the younger side. 390 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,879 Speaker 5: Oh yeah, did you hear that the Epstein estate is 391 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,560 Speaker 5: going to release the birthday book? 392 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,480 Speaker 1: Yeah? This is not going to make Donald Trump happy. 393 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: What do you think he will do to distract from 394 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: this fom Mexico? I mean, what what do you say? 395 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 4: Look? 396 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:16,159 Speaker 5: I mean I think his instincts will be everything that 397 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 5: we previously see do things to distract, although I don't 398 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:24,159 Speaker 5: think he necessarily thinks that deeply about it. Like I 399 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 5: think he just impulsively does things to get attention. That's 400 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,240 Speaker 5: what he normally does, except for this weekend for some reason, 401 00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 5: he's not doing that. Interestingly, It's an extension of that 402 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 5: tendency to seek attention. It also helps him change the 403 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,320 Speaker 5: subject to talk about me, all the great things about me. 404 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 5: So he wants to do something that he thinks he 405 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,880 Speaker 5: should get credit for. I don't think it's I don't 406 00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 5: know if I'm articulating it that well, but you are. 407 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 5: I think he's doing it just to distract. I think 408 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,480 Speaker 5: he just does it because and I think when he 409 00:23:56,680 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 5: feels pressure, when he feels narcissistic in that's when he 410 00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 5: acts out even more, which is consistent really distraction theory. 411 00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 5: But I think it's a little it's a mixed motive. 412 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, George Conway, I hope you'll come back. 413 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 5: I'll always come back. I may not be on time, 414 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 5: but I'll always come back. 415 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: Natasha Saron is the president and co founder of the 416 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 1: Budget Lab at Yale. Welcome to Fast Politics, Natasha, thanks 417 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: so much for having me. Allie, I wanted to have 418 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,520 Speaker 1: you because, first of all, because we've been on panels 419 00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: together and you always have a lot of really important 420 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: and interesting analysis. But the Yale Budget Lab has in 421 00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 1: a world where you can no longer trust government numbers. 422 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:48,240 Speaker 1: Non government numbers are going to actually be You're increasingly 423 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:49,600 Speaker 1: the only game in town. 424 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 2: I think organizations like ours are always important, but increasingly important. 425 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:57,639 Speaker 2: And we're in a world in which government statistics are 426 00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 2: becoming kind of hard to evaluate as truth, which is 427 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 2: actually a really unfortunate world to the end, right, Molly, 428 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 2: because for so long been this like gold standard in 429 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,280 Speaker 2: this country of having impeccable and almost real time information 430 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,640 Speaker 2: about the state of the labor market or the state 431 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,320 Speaker 2: of inflation, and I'm worried that some of the actions 432 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 2: that have been taken recently are pushing against that. 433 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,240 Speaker 1: I want you to first talk a couple of weeks ago, 434 00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: Donald Trump got these numbers. He didn't like it was 435 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: a revision on jobless claims. Right, that's right, it doesn't 436 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,919 Speaker 1: not get us to where we are right now. 437 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 2: Feels like it wasn't even that long ago because it 438 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 2: was the beginning in August. But a lot has happened 439 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,880 Speaker 2: since then. Yeah, so basically until just on the substance first, 440 00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,879 Speaker 2: before we talk about the reactions to the numbers, there 441 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 2: was a bit of confusion for those of us who 442 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:51,399 Speaker 2: watch these issues as we were trying to understand what 443 00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,360 Speaker 2: was happening in the labor market, because we definitely had 444 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:58,000 Speaker 2: evidence that as a result of these tariffs and the 445 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 2: trade policies that the administration is pursuing, you had seen 446 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 2: economic growth slowing and in facts that's like consistent with 447 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:07,399 Speaker 2: the work that my colleagues and I do at the 448 00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:10,159 Speaker 2: Budget lab. We estimated the economy would be about zero 449 00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:14,040 Speaker 2: point five percent of GDP smaller as a result of 450 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 2: these very high tariffs. And that's like kind of what 451 00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,760 Speaker 2: you were seeing relative to projections last fall about what 452 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 2: economic growth would look like. It was slowing down, but 453 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 2: at the same time you had the labor market that 454 00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 2: looked like pretty steady for many months, and it was 455 00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 2: kind of puzzling those two two things. How could they 456 00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 2: be true simultaneously. And what we learned earlier at the 457 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 2: result of last month's jobs numbers is that those things 458 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 2: two things weren't actually true simultaneous, because the labor market 459 00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 2: has in fact been cooling over the course of the 460 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 2: last few months, and there was a revision to the 461 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 2: jobless claimed. I want to be sort of clear about 462 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 2: the substance here, though. Revisions happen all the time, and 463 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 2: the reason they happen all the time is because we're 464 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 2: getting information, like in real time about the labor market, 465 00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:07,960 Speaker 2: basically by surveying a bunch of businesses about their hiring 466 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 2: and firing practices. And inherently, when you do that kind 467 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 2: of surveying, it is going to be the case that 468 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 2: some people don't respond within your survey window, and so 469 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 2: you're putting out information, but you know that as you 470 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 2: get more responses, you're going to update because you've learned 471 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 2: more about the economy, and so we always revise these numbers, 472 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:31,000 Speaker 2: these revisions. It was a big number. It said the 473 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,080 Speaker 2: you know, two hundred and forty eight thousand jobs fewer 474 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,200 Speaker 2: than we thought over the course of a two month period. 475 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,159 Speaker 2: But in reality, that's zero point one five percent of 476 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,440 Speaker 2: payroll employment. So it's like a relatively small number in 477 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 2: a but it sounds big when you don't scale it 478 00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 2: by kind of the size of our economy, which is fast. 479 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: But it also set the table for firing people who 480 00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 1: didn't do what he wanted. So Donald Trump desperately wants 481 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,720 Speaker 1: to cut interest rates. He thinks that that will choose 482 00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 1: the economy. This is a real estate guy's vision of 483 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,280 Speaker 1: how to fix the economy. One might even say a 484 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,719 Speaker 1: bad real estate guys vision of how to fix the economy. 485 00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 1: I want you to explain to us sort of why 486 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 1: the Fed doesn't want to lower interest rates, because I 487 00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: think Donald Trump thinks it's because they're against him, But 488 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:24,879 Speaker 1: actually there's more to this story. 489 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 2: There's a lot more to the story. And in fact, 490 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 2: like if you think about what the Federal Reserve is tasked, 491 00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 2: what's doing, we are very lucky, just like we're very 492 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 2: lucky to have government statistics that we can rely on 493 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 2: and feel confident in. We're incredibly lucky. And it's another 494 00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 2: pillar of our economic security that we have a central 495 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:49,240 Speaker 2: bank that is independent, and that means that the central bank, 496 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,560 Speaker 2: when it makes decisions, it makes decisions about just two things. 497 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 2: It looks at what the inflation outlook looks like in 498 00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 2: the country, so what's happening to prices, And it looks 499 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:01,640 Speaker 2: at what's happened in the labor market, so are we 500 00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 2: adding jobs? Are we not adding jobs? And as it 501 00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 2: weighs those two pieces of evidence, it says, okay, well, 502 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 2: should interest rates go up in order to stimulate in 503 00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 2: order to cool the economy, or should they go down 504 00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 2: in order to stimulate the economy so people borrow more 505 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 2: and invest more and the like. And what's been hard 506 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 2: for the Federal Reserve thus far over the course of 507 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,800 Speaker 2: the last many months is that it's getting kind of 508 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: signals in both directions. So it's getting the signal from 509 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 2: on the inflation side, the Federal Reserve wasn't even back 510 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 2: to the level of inflation it wants to see in 511 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 2: the economy after the pandemic when the administration took office, 512 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 2: and then what happened is they turned around as a 513 00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:48,200 Speaker 2: result of these tariffs and executed the most inflationary policies 514 00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 2: that we've seen in our lifetimes. So, like big inflation 515 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: pushes in one direction for the Fed, and then in 516 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,560 Speaker 2: the other direction, you're starting to see the labor market 517 00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:02,120 Speaker 2: slow down, which pushes in exactly the opposite space. And 518 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 2: so I think it's actually a very difficult You could 519 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,000 Speaker 2: make arguments, and in fact, we've seen the Federal Reserve 520 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,920 Speaker 2: make arguments on both sides of this. Should we wait 521 00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 2: and see what's happening with tarif uncertainty or other governors 522 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,440 Speaker 2: have said, actually, now is the time to start cutting 523 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,240 Speaker 2: interest rates. But importantly, by the way, no one is 524 00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:23,080 Speaker 2: saying No one on the Federal Reserve has said anything 525 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 2: like let us do what the President has suggested, which 526 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 2: is decrease the federal funds rate to one percent by 527 00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:33,640 Speaker 2: like two percentage points, by big numbers. No one is 528 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 2: saying that. What they're saying is let's do like relatively 529 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 2: small changes to the interest rate in order to kind 530 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 2: of make sure we have this balance right between inflation 531 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 2: on the one side and jobs on the other side. 532 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: It seems like the anxiety here is something called stagflation. 533 00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,560 Speaker 1: I mean, the irony here is so rich. Right, Nixon 534 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:58,480 Speaker 1: fullies the Fed into doing what he wants, creates stagflation, 535 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: can't get out of it. Talk us through what's happening here. 536 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 2: You're gonna make me say, I am so scared as 537 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:09,080 Speaker 2: an economist to say the word stactuation. I say, I've 538 00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 2: been saying like s word or something as I'm trying 539 00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,160 Speaker 2: to describe it, because it's such a difficult scenario to 540 00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 2: be navigating. 541 00:31:16,440 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 1: Didn't Nixon do this? Well? 542 00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 2: So Nixon did exactly. And that's a little bit what 543 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,840 Speaker 2: I find so frustrating about all of what we're seeing 544 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 2: over the course of the last many months with respect 545 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 2: to federal reserve independence, which is that like, we have 546 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:36,120 Speaker 2: run this play before in the United States with respect 547 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 2: to bullying a central bank to lower interest rates. We 548 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 2: did it in the nixt administration. Arthur Burns said to Nixon, 549 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 2: you know, I've done everything I can to help you 550 00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:49,240 Speaker 2: win that everything I can was decrease interest rates ahead 551 00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 2: of a presidential election, and the result of that was 552 00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,680 Speaker 2: that over a two year period you had inflation increase 553 00:31:56,760 --> 00:32:00,200 Speaker 2: from three to thirteen percent, and ultimately it took a 554 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:04,840 Speaker 2: massive downturn and a giant recession in the economy to 555 00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 2: try to bring back inflation towards expectations and bring back 556 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,360 Speaker 2: interest rates towards the level that you would want to see. 557 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 2: And so it's like incredibly counterproductive to be playing around 558 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 2: with's federal reserve independence. It's not just that we've done 559 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 2: it in the US before. I mean, Turkey's done it, 560 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 2: Argentina's done it. You've been in situations where you've seen 561 00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 2: central banks start to get politicized and the real risk 562 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,240 Speaker 2: and government statistics start to get politicized, and the real 563 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 2: risk that economies run from that. And so I am 564 00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 2: troubled by it. And I'm also puzzled by it because, 565 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,600 Speaker 2: by the way, if they wanted to see lower interest rates, 566 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,360 Speaker 2: which is what the President has been saying, Chair Powell 567 00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 2: has been explicit that like, had it not been for 568 00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 2: this tariff uncertainty, the Federal Reserve is already a cut 569 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:52,080 Speaker 2: interest rate. So it's like they kind of have the 570 00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 2: capacity to do the thing that he wants to see 571 00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:56,400 Speaker 2: happen in the economy. 572 00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,840 Speaker 1: Yes, and the way the tariffs have been put into 573 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 1: practice are is insane, right, It's highly emotional, it's highly disorganized. 574 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,240 Speaker 1: Were you doing this in a thoughtful way, you would 575 00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:13,080 Speaker 1: say raw materials when get tariffed, Like, we have situations 576 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 1: here where there are things that are where you are 577 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:21,200 Speaker 1: tariffing the materials for the manufacturing. You know, he's tariffing 578 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,520 Speaker 1: things we don't even make here, that we don't even 579 00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: have here. And so if you wanted to onshore manufacturing, 580 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:29,280 Speaker 1: this is absolutely not the way to do it. So 581 00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,480 Speaker 1: talk us through that, I mean. 582 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,280 Speaker 2: And one of the things there that's really important is 583 00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,720 Speaker 2: it is a bit difficult to understand what the actual 584 00:33:38,880 --> 00:33:42,120 Speaker 2: objective of these tariffs are, and so it's hard to 585 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:46,120 Speaker 2: evaluate whether or not they are being successful and effectuating 586 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:51,520 Speaker 2: their goals. The thing that I find really interesting and 587 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 2: kind of frustrating about the tariffs is that we you 588 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 2: and I might disagree about what the right effect of 589 00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 2: tariff rate is in the United States, and right now 590 00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,719 Speaker 2: we're at an effective tariff rate of upwards of eighteen 591 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,799 Speaker 2: percent at the beginning of this administration, we were at 592 00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:13,040 Speaker 2: two and a half percent, So that's a big significant jump. 593 00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: That jump hasn't been like a singular change in policy. 594 00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 2: What you've seen is a lot of starts and stops, 595 00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 2: then a lot of changes affected. Teriff rates have changed 596 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,319 Speaker 2: more than sixty times over the course of the first 597 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,640 Speaker 2: six months of this administration. And so that type of 598 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 2: uncertainty kind of independent of what the level is and 599 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:35,920 Speaker 2: what the exclusion should be, and does it really make 600 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,240 Speaker 2: sense for us to be tariffing our allies like Canada 601 00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 2: and Mexico in the name of fetanol that Canada doesn't 602 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,720 Speaker 2: really have much to do with in the first place. 603 00:34:44,880 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 2: Like all of that, we can debate the substance, but 604 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 2: as an economist, you have to ask yourself, like what 605 00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,840 Speaker 2: is the sort of argument for the uncertainty, because what 606 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,320 Speaker 2: we know that it does is it paralyzes businesses. It 607 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,399 Speaker 2: makes it impossible to plan, like should you be moving 608 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,560 Speaker 2: your manufacturing from China to India because when we know 609 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 2: that India's more of an ally than China is, but 610 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,400 Speaker 2: actually now India today is being hit with a fifty 611 00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,800 Speaker 2: percent tariff, and so that kind of a move wouldn't 612 00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 2: make much sense. If you're Apple thinking about where to 613 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,040 Speaker 2: manufacture your iPhones, and so there's some that sort of 614 00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 2: the uncertainty index is just really high right now in 615 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,600 Speaker 2: ways that don't really make much sense to me from 616 00:35:25,600 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 2: a policy perspective. 617 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:31,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that is the fundamental sort of one of 618 00:35:32,040 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 1: the great tropes of trumpsm is that it doesn't make 619 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:39,439 Speaker 1: any sense. So let's just we got these tariffs. They're 620 00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,160 Speaker 1: the highest since what the Great Depression? 621 00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,120 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, in the last century. 622 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're told by Trump that the companies are going 623 00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: to eat the tariffs. Trump has also done a lot 624 00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,760 Speaker 1: of I actually like this as part of the horseshoe. 625 00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:57,680 Speaker 1: Here he's taking a steak in Intel. He's thinking his 626 00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 1: music about taking steaks into fense contractors. If a Democrat 627 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:08,839 Speaker 1: did this, Republicans Grover Norquest would run naked through burning man. 628 00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:14,440 Speaker 1: What is happening? And how unusual is it for America 629 00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:17,680 Speaker 1: to take stakes in private businesses? 630 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 2: You know, I don't know enough about the deal to 631 00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,399 Speaker 2: be able to evaluate it yet, and frankly I don't 632 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 2: think we do know enough about the terms. I can 633 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:31,120 Speaker 2: kind of see some argument from a national security perspective, 634 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:35,840 Speaker 2: certainly with respect to domestic chips production, and also, frankly 635 00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 2: some argument for American taxpayers should get some of the 636 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 2: benefits of some of these investments that the FISK is making. 637 00:36:42,920 --> 00:36:45,120 Speaker 2: On the other hand, the thing that gives you a 638 00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,520 Speaker 2: bit of pause and gives a bit of pause to 639 00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,120 Speaker 2: economists who are looking at these things, and I suspect 640 00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,640 Speaker 2: gives a bit of pause to some of the critics 641 00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:56,279 Speaker 2: that you're talking about, Mollie is like, do you really 642 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:58,520 Speaker 2: want the government to be in the business of picking 643 00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,759 Speaker 2: winners and losers in part because you worry that it 644 00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:06,040 Speaker 2: distorts the marketplace? Because does it then mean that if 645 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,759 Speaker 2: you're a competitor to Intel, you're less likely to get 646 00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 2: favorable terms, or you're less likely to find yourself being 647 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:18,279 Speaker 2: able to compete with a legacy, older business that has 648 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 2: this attachment to the Fisk in this very precise and 649 00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:25,480 Speaker 2: pronounced way. And so, in some sense, are we distorting 650 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,840 Speaker 2: competitive incentives in the economy by making some of these choices? 651 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:33,880 Speaker 2: And is the government really well equipped to be looking 652 00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,520 Speaker 2: at the landscape scape and trying to pick out which 653 00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:39,719 Speaker 2: companies are likely to be successful in profit and which 654 00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 2: ones are less. 655 00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,600 Speaker 1: Likely to be So yeah, And I mean there's a 656 00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:48,480 Speaker 1: really deep kind of crony capitalism vein in this administration. 657 00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:51,520 Speaker 2: I very much agree a little bit like you kind 658 00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,359 Speaker 2: of can't look at any of this stuff that we've 659 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:57,160 Speaker 2: been talking about in isolation, because in aggregate, what it 660 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,279 Speaker 2: feels like is that you're moving away from from a 661 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 2: rules based capitalist system and moving towards this you called 662 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:11,000 Speaker 2: it crony capitalism, this like world deals based system of capitalism, 663 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:16,760 Speaker 2: and that that feels a little bit uncomfortable and should 664 00:38:16,840 --> 00:38:19,800 Speaker 2: feel a little bit uncomfortable, not just to me and you, frankly, 665 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,239 Speaker 2: but to financial markets as they watch and see the 666 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,560 Speaker 2: integrity of some of these institutions brought into question, like 667 00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,800 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve or our Bureau of Labor Statistics, but 668 00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,319 Speaker 2: also as they watch your stock with this administration start 669 00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,720 Speaker 2: to dictate the terms on which you're able to conduct 670 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:39,560 Speaker 2: your businesses. 671 00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:42,879 Speaker 1: So it strikes me that we're heading towards some kind 672 00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:46,800 Speaker 1: of impact event. Right. We're on a kind of collision course. 673 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 1: Things are getting more expensive. Trump has tried to fire 674 00:38:50,360 --> 00:38:53,440 Speaker 1: Lisa Cook. Lisa Cook is doing what anyone should do 675 00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 1: in a situation like this, pushing back. But it doesn't 676 00:38:56,880 --> 00:39:00,319 Speaker 1: seem as if this is heading anywhere good. You will 677 00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:02,920 Speaker 1: see when this next quarter ends, we'll see if we're 678 00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,120 Speaker 1: in negative growth, right, I mean, that will be the 679 00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 1: next indicator that will say if we're in a recession 680 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 1: or not, or is there something else coming up that 681 00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:12,520 Speaker 1: could show us that. 682 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:18,560 Speaker 2: It's an interesting question because you've started to see sort 683 00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 2: of signs of instability in the economy. 684 00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:22,759 Speaker 1: Right. 685 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 2: So, growth was supposed to be on track last November. 686 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:27,920 Speaker 2: It was projected to be something like two and a 687 00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,759 Speaker 2: half percent this year. In the first two quarters of 688 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:34,080 Speaker 2: this year, it was closer to one point two percent. 689 00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:38,360 Speaker 2: You saw when the President was contemplating earlier at this summer, 690 00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,240 Speaker 2: I had a letter that said he was firing Chair Powell, 691 00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,800 Speaker 2: and we were talking a lot about renovations to the 692 00:39:43,840 --> 00:39:47,960 Speaker 2: Federal Reserve building. You saw the market take like a 693 00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,800 Speaker 2: one percent hit kind of instantaneously on that new You 694 00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 2: saw around Liberation Day a really sizable market reaction to 695 00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:59,480 Speaker 2: the announcement of terror f rates that we are basically, 696 00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:02,640 Speaker 2: you know, three quarters of the way back to right now, 697 00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:08,320 Speaker 2: and so you've seen like little points of nervousness, and frankly, 698 00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,880 Speaker 2: you've seen the administration react to some of that nervousness 699 00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,759 Speaker 2: particularly in the bond market. But you haven't yet had 700 00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,160 Speaker 2: what you're describing as like an impact the event. And 701 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:23,200 Speaker 2: so I suspect, just based on the work that my 702 00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,200 Speaker 2: colleagues and I have been doing at the Budget Lab, 703 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:31,360 Speaker 2: that some of the inflationary impacts that we have projected 704 00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,840 Speaker 2: from these terraffs are starting to hit in the economy 705 00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:38,319 Speaker 2: and they're going to continue to hit, in fact more 706 00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 2: aggressively in the months ahead. And that's where you're hearing 707 00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:44,080 Speaker 2: retailers say two a bunch they had like stockpiled and 708 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:47,600 Speaker 2: brought in a lot of inventory in anticipation of higher 709 00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,000 Speaker 2: tariff freights so they could keep their shelves stopped with 710 00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,800 Speaker 2: stuff that they brought in at lower tariff levels. And 711 00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,440 Speaker 2: that's not going to work forever. And so you're going 712 00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:59,520 Speaker 2: start to get to a point where the tariffs are biting, 713 00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,279 Speaker 2: and at the same time, you have some of these 714 00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:06,600 Speaker 2: deep threats to central bank independence, to the integrity of 715 00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:11,160 Speaker 2: government data that should make market participants very nervous and 716 00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,839 Speaker 2: should make them react negatively. And so I think you're 717 00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:18,440 Speaker 2: right to have a bunch of nervousness about this moment, 718 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:20,919 Speaker 2: and I only help. My hope is that you've seen 719 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,200 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court in a case that had nothing to 720 00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:26,400 Speaker 2: do about the Federal Reserve. Try to be specific that 721 00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:30,440 Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve is special and a quasi private institution 722 00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:34,040 Speaker 2: where it's really important that we have this independence. And 723 00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:37,040 Speaker 2: so I hope that the judiciary is going to stand 724 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,600 Speaker 2: up against some of this. But again, only time is 725 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:40,080 Speaker 2: going to tell. 726 00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:44,120 Speaker 1: There's a tariff case working its way up to the 727 00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,560 Speaker 1: Supreme Court. Just say two seconds on that. 728 00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,359 Speaker 2: Yeah, And that's actually a very good point. A bunch 729 00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,440 Speaker 2: of the tariffs. The authority that the president is using 730 00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:56,280 Speaker 2: to impose these tariffs has to do with very specific 731 00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:59,839 Speaker 2: emergency powers that he was given by Congress. It's really 732 00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,280 Speaker 2: it's hard to argue that it makes sense to impose 733 00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,920 Speaker 2: these very high tariffs on our allies based on some 734 00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:08,680 Speaker 2: sort of emergency associated with national security or anything like that. 735 00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:11,120 Speaker 2: And so that case is working its way up to 736 00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,400 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court, and it's going to be another moment 737 00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:15,919 Speaker 2: when you're going to I hope see the court pull 738 00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:19,880 Speaker 2: back from some of these very expansive uses of executive power. 739 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:26,240 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. A moment 740 00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,080 Speaker 1: sick Jesse Cannon. 741 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:33,400 Speaker 3: I jumped fast the Trump administration cut a lot of 742 00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:38,439 Speaker 3: funding to shooting prevention programs in Minnesota just weeks before 743 00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,960 Speaker 3: the latest shooting, which they are now pretending should be 744 00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,600 Speaker 3: blamed on the fact that the shooter was trans. 745 00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:48,840 Speaker 1: So Cam Caskey, who was a victim of the Marjorie 746 00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,520 Speaker 1: Stone Douglas High shooting, he didn't get shot, but he 747 00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:54,800 Speaker 1: grew up, you know, he was in high school. He 748 00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,719 Speaker 1: was on this show last night, the weekend show that 749 00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,560 Speaker 1: I was filling in as a host, And one of 750 00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,840 Speaker 1: the things that I was struck by when I was 751 00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:07,080 Speaker 1: listening to him was just the incredible damage that these 752 00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:12,480 Speaker 1: shootings do to everyone around them. So you're not just 753 00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,320 Speaker 1: the kids in the school, but the parents and the 754 00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:19,200 Speaker 1: grandparents and the people who live in the town. You know, 755 00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,080 Speaker 1: we see two victims, but the reality is there are 756 00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:27,840 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of ancillary victims from these mass shootings. 757 00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,000 Speaker 1: And I just was listening to him, and I'm thinking 758 00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:32,960 Speaker 1: to myself, like, you know, even if you weren't even 759 00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,040 Speaker 1: in school, even if you were in middle school, even 760 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:38,800 Speaker 1: if you were in kindergarten, the ripples of effect that 761 00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:45,080 Speaker 1: these have on everyone are just so incredibly shocking and 762 00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,279 Speaker 1: traumatizing and I just was listening to him and I 763 00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,840 Speaker 1: was thinking, just how destructive all that is. 764 00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:53,120 Speaker 4: It's really bad. 765 00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,160 Speaker 3: And Sebastian Gorka was on the Sunday shows blaming if 766 00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,480 Speaker 3: this on trans kids, despite the lack of proportionality of 767 00:43:59,600 --> 00:44:01,719 Speaker 3: that being being the case. I do find it really 768 00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,000 Speaker 3: disturbing that a lot of the recent shooters have all 769 00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:07,680 Speaker 3: participated in a particular discord chat. Yeah, you would think 770 00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,040 Speaker 3: that the FBI could spend time on that instead of 771 00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:11,360 Speaker 3: harassing their opponents. 772 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:16,400 Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in 773 00:44:16,880 --> 00:44:22,279 Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the best 774 00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:26,719 Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If 775 00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,760 Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend 776 00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,400 Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. Thanks for listening.