WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: October 9th, 2025

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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<v Speaker 2>with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day

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<v Speaker 2>for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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<v Speaker 3>Sticking with the shutdown, as tensions are rising on Capitol Hill,

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<v Speaker 3>House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries of New York is confident

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<v Speaker 3>a spending bill can pass, but says Republicans must first

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<v Speaker 3>address what he calls healthcare crisis. House Leader Jeffries joins

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<v Speaker 3>us now, Congressman, thank.

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<v Speaker 1>You so much for being with us.

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<v Speaker 3>House Leader, I want to just start with whether you

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<v Speaker 3>feel confident that you can complete sort of agreement in

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<v Speaker 3>the next few days. Do you have a timeframe as

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<v Speaker 3>these discussions do continue.

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<v Speaker 4>Welcome morning, and great to be with you. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>as Democrats, we've repeatedly made clear we will sit down anytime,

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<v Speaker 4>any place with anyone, either here at Capitol Hill or

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<v Speaker 4>back at the White House, in order to reopen the government,

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<v Speaker 4>to enact the spending bill that actually meets the needs

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<v Speaker 4>of the American people as opposed to hurting everyday Americans.

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<v Speaker 4>And of course that spending bill must decisively address the

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<v Speaker 4>Republican healthcare crisis that is hurting working class Americans and

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<v Speaker 4>middle class Americans all throughout the country, including as it

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<v Speaker 4>relates to the urgent need to reauthorize and extend the

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<v Speaker 4>Affordable Care attax credits.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the Speaker told us yesterday that Congress is having

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<v Speaker 5>these talks when it comes to subsidies reform.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you part of these talks?

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<v Speaker 5>And just a quick condolences because I know you like me,

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<v Speaker 5>we're up late watching the Yankees lose and I know

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<v Speaker 5>you're a huge fan.

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<v Speaker 1>Minority Leader Jeffries, Well, thank you.

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<v Speaker 4>They had a great season. Unfortunately it didn't in the

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<v Speaker 4>way that we expected. But on to next year. With

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<v Speaker 4>respect to know what the Speaker has indicated, there's been

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<v Speaker 4>no conversation between House Republicans and House Democrats. Are between

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<v Speaker 4>the Republican Party, Donald Trump, the administration, and any of

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<v Speaker 4>us on Capitol Hill, including our conversations that should be

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<v Speaker 4>taking place with Leader Schumer and Senate Democrats since that

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<v Speaker 4>White House meeting that occurred last Monday. That's unfortunate, and

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<v Speaker 4>the behavior of Republicans since that point in time has

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<v Speaker 4>been unseerrious and erratic, and we continue to urge them

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<v Speaker 4>to find a path forward, to sit down, let's talk

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<v Speaker 4>exercise common sense on behalf of the American people. But

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<v Speaker 4>anything that's done has to address this urgent need. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>the open enrollment period starts on November first. Over the

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<v Speaker 4>next few weeks, tens of millions of Americans are going

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<v Speaker 4>to receive notices indicating that their premiums, copaids, and deductibles

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<v Speaker 4>are about to skyrocket, in many instances by thousands of

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<v Speaker 4>dollars per year. People are going to go without health insurance,

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<v Speaker 4>face medical bankruptcy, and be jammed up in a situation

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<v Speaker 4>where they need care for themselves, their children, and their families,

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<v Speaker 4>but will be unable to access it because they'll be

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<v Speaker 4>without health insurance.

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<v Speaker 5>It was a democratic policy, though your party voted for

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<v Speaker 5>this temporary subsidy increase. Do you regret having an expiration

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<v Speaker 5>date on.

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<v Speaker 4>This No, We were able to extend it through the

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<v Speaker 4>end of this year, in full anticipation that any reasonable

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<v Speaker 4>member of Congress will understand that you cannot kick tens

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<v Speaker 4>of millions of Americans off of health care that's become

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<v Speaker 4>affordable for them.

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<v Speaker 6>As a result of the tax credits.

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<v Speaker 4>Unfortunately, Republicans chose earlier this year to pass their one big,

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<v Speaker 4>ugly bill, largest cut to Medicaid in American history, ripped

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<v Speaker 4>food away from the mouths of hungry children and seniors

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<v Speaker 4>and veterans, and they did all of this to pay

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<v Speaker 4>for massive tax breaks that they made permanent for their

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<v Speaker 4>billionaire donors well at the same time refusing to extend

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<v Speaker 4>the Affordable CARECT tax credits, which is why we find

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<v Speaker 4>ourselves in this situation.

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<v Speaker 1>Right now, Leader Jeffries.

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<v Speaker 3>Some people would argue that what the Republicans are offering

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<v Speaker 3>is to have a clean, continuing resolution and to continue

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<v Speaker 3>negotiating this given the fact that at the same time,

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<v Speaker 3>they are going to be service members who are not

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<v Speaker 3>going to be paid. There's going to be a question

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<v Speaker 3>around foodstab stamps and whether they're going to be funded.

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<v Speaker 3>Air traffic controllers are calling out sick because they're not

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<v Speaker 3>receiving paychecks. At what point do you just say, look,

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<v Speaker 3>we need to keep people getting paid and we can

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<v Speaker 3>keep talking.

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<v Speaker 4>We want to reopen the government, and we want to

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<v Speaker 4>reopen it immediately, but we also need to enact a

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<v Speaker 4>spending agreement that actually improves the quality of life of

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<v Speaker 4>the American people as opposed to hurting everyday Americans, which

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans have been doing all throughout this year, and they've refused,

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<v Speaker 4>They've refused to negotiate at every step of the way

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<v Speaker 4>throughout this year. They've taken a my way or the

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<v Speaker 4>highway approach. They've gone it alone. And now we find

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<v Speaker 4>ourselves dealing with this mess of this Republican healthcare crisis,

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<v Speaker 4>and time has run out.

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<v Speaker 3>Leader Jeffries, do you think that you've gotten more leverage

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<v Speaker 3>as this process has gone on, or do you think

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<v Speaker 3>that it's actually waiting?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's actually not about leverage for us. It's about

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<v Speaker 4>the American people. That's the fight that we're waging. Particularly

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<v Speaker 4>in an environment where the cost of living is way

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<v Speaker 4>too high.

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<v Speaker 6>People are already.

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<v Speaker 4>Paying too much for groceries, for housing, for their electricity bills,

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<v Speaker 4>and now, of course they're confronting the very real possibility

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<v Speaker 4>of being bankrupted by the rising costs of their health insurance.

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<v Speaker 4>So we're just asking Republicans to sit down and negotiate.

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<v Speaker 4>That's what should take place, not simply a my way

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<v Speaker 4>or the highway approach, particularly when they're asking Democrats to

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<v Speaker 4>support a part of san in Republicans spending bill that

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<v Speaker 4>continues to gut the healthcare of the American people.

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<v Speaker 5>Right now, Republicans are asking is to support a clean

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<v Speaker 5>continuous resolution, a scoff gap funding measure, which we've seen

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<v Speaker 5>time and time again that Democrats also wanted Republicans to

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<v Speaker 5>support in the fast passed Why are Democrats choosing to

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<v Speaker 5>keep the government shut?

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<v Speaker 4>That's a Republican talking point, unfortunately, that they are putting

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<v Speaker 4>into the public domain. It's not a clean continuing resolution.

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<v Speaker 1>Why isn't it In March?

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<v Speaker 6>I'd be happy to explain that.

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<v Speaker 4>In March, the Republicans passed a partisan bill in the

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<v Speaker 4>House that Democrats strongly opposed. We opposed that spending bill

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<v Speaker 4>because it hurt veterans, hurt children and families, it hurt

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<v Speaker 4>housing affordability, and it hurt healthcare because of the cuts

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<v Speaker 4>that were included in it. There was actually a bipartisan

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<v Speaker 4>spending agreement that we reached last December that passed overwhelmingly

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<v Speaker 4>in the House and in the Senate. It was signed

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<v Speaker 4>into law by President Joe Biden, and it had the

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<v Speaker 4>support of then President elect Donald Trump. That would have

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<v Speaker 4>been a clean spending agreement that could have been put

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<v Speaker 4>before the Congress. Instead, they passed this partisan, Republican spending

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<v Speaker 4>bill in March that we strongly opposed, and now they

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<v Speaker 4>want us to continue to sign off on that particular

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<v Speaker 4>bill that also includes five hundred million dollars and cuts

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<v Speaker 4>to law enforcement grants to support police officers all across

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<v Speaker 4>the country. That's just not something for a variety of reasons,

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<v Speaker 4>we can support at this particular point in time.

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<v Speaker 5>Do you think the Democratic Party could commit to broader

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<v Speaker 5>reforms when it comes to the Affordable Care Act and

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<v Speaker 5>keeping less of the subsidies. Could this be potential offrame

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<v Speaker 5>for a deal.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that our view, certainly in the House is

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<v Speaker 4>that we will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan proposal

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<v Speaker 4>that is sent over to us from the Senate if

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<v Speaker 4>it decisively addresses the Republican healthcare crisis with respect to

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<v Speaker 4>the Affordable Care Act, tax credits, extensions, or any other

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<v Speaker 4>issues that may be put on the table because of

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<v Speaker 4>the enormity of the attack on the healthcare of the

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<v Speaker 4>American people that Republicans have waged this year.

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<v Speaker 6>It's got to be meaningful.

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<v Speaker 4>It's got to actually improve the lives of the American people.

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<v Speaker 6>But unlike Republicans who.

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<v Speaker 4>Have adopted this my way or the highway approach, we

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<v Speaker 4>are actually willing to sit down and evaluate in good

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<v Speaker 4>faith anything that could advance the ball here for working

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<v Speaker 4>class Americans, middle class Americans, and everyday Americans.

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<v Speaker 5>Is there an opportunity for standalone legislation to make sure

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<v Speaker 5>that the more than one million active duty service members

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<v Speaker 5>get paid next week.

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<v Speaker 4>Certainly, our view in the House is that we should

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<v Speaker 4>stand by our men and women in uniform and make

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<v Speaker 4>sure that they do not miss a paycheck. Unfortunately, Speaker

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<v Speaker 4>Johnson has ruled that out, saying it's not really an

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<v Speaker 4>issue that he's prepared to deal with, in part because

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans cancel votes last week, cancel votes this week, Apparently

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<v Speaker 4>they may not be coming back next week. And what

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<v Speaker 4>is that all for. Why are they on vacation in

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<v Speaker 4>the middle of a government shutdown, Particularly as it relates

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<v Speaker 4>to the real possibility that our military families might miss

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<v Speaker 4>a paycheck that they cannot afford to miss. We're urging

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans to get back into town, allow us to deal

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<v Speaker 4>with the military pay issue, allow us to deal with

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<v Speaker 4>the Republican health care crisis, and allow us to reopen

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<v Speaker 4>the government so we can enact the spending agreement that

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<v Speaker 4>meets the needs of the American people.

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<v Speaker 5>Peter Jeffries, we also saw a pretty explosive argument between

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<v Speaker 5>you and the fellow New York Congressman Mike Lawler, and

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<v Speaker 5>then you proceeded to call Lawler an embarrassment on television.

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<v Speaker 5>Was this fight representative of the state tensions that are

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<v Speaker 5>going on within the Republican Party in New York State

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<v Speaker 5>right now?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, Magi, Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He's a

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<v Speaker 4>clout chaser, and he was stalking the Democratic leadership press

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<v Speaker 4>conference in ways that are unhinged. And at the end

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<v Speaker 4>of the day, our view is the people who need

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<v Speaker 4>to sit down and have the conversation with US Republican

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<v Speaker 4>leadership in the House and in the Senate. The Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 4>including the President or the Vice president or anyone that

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<v Speaker 4>they designate, are the ones who are ultimately going to

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<v Speaker 4>determine how we can find a bipartisan path out of it,

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<v Speaker 4>and we look forward to having those conversations, but unfortunately

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans to date have declined to do that.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, what was he doing that you deem unhinged? And

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<v Speaker 5>have you spoken to him since? Have tensions cooled? It

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<v Speaker 5>doesn't sound like they have.

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<v Speaker 4>He's an irrelevant individual and as I indicated, his behavior

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<v Speaker 4>clearly speaks for itself, complete and total embarrassment. As a

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<v Speaker 4>description was a polite use of words.

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<v Speaker 7>Leader.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a question here about today is to get to

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<v Speaker 3>unify the Democratic Party because this is somebody who is

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<v Speaker 3>a Republican. He's not relevant in his district, and there

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<v Speaker 3>is a question here, especially in New York, how to

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<v Speaker 3>get some sort of cohesive message as a Democrat.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just wondering, from your perspective, especially.

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<v Speaker 3>As it relates to the Democratic mayoral race in New

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<v Speaker 3>York City.

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<v Speaker 1>You have an endorsed or on mcdonnie, how.

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<v Speaker 3>Difficult is it to get sort of a leadership view

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<v Speaker 3>of where the Democratic Party is going to go?

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<v Speaker 4>Well, listen, as Democrats, what unites us is that we

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<v Speaker 4>believe in a strong flow and no ceiling at the

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<v Speaker 4>end of the day, in America, you work hard, you

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<v Speaker 4>play by the rules, there should be no ceiling to

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<v Speaker 4>your success in terms of what you can achieve for yourself,

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<v Speaker 4>for your family, and for your children. At the same

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<v Speaker 4>point in time, we also believe that in this great country,

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<v Speaker 4>the wealthiest country in the history of the world, that

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<v Speaker 4>we need.

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<v Speaker 6>A strong flow.

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<v Speaker 4>That strong flow includes social Security and Medicare, Medicaid supplemental

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<v Speaker 4>nutritional assistance, veterans benefits, and of course the Affordable Care Act.

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<v Speaker 4>And what unites Democrats at this particular point in time

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<v Speaker 4>is the fact that Republicans are assaulting the flaw that

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<v Speaker 4>we should have for everyday Americans, while at the same

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<v Speaker 4>time rewarding their billionaire donors, and by the way, in

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<v Speaker 4>doing so, skyrocketing the debt by more than three trillion

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<v Speaker 4>dollars in such a fiscally irresponsible fashion.

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<v Speaker 5>Leader Jeffries, you did tell reporters last month you planned

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<v Speaker 5>to address the mayor race in New York soon. Do

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<v Speaker 5>you have a plan to endorse zoramm Donnie.

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<v Speaker 4>We're in the middle of a government shut down. People

0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 4>are being hurt all across the country because Trump and

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:45.240
<v Speaker 4>Republicans decided to shut down the government rather than provide

0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 4>healthcare to working class Americans. And so what I've indicated,

0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:53.080
<v Speaker 4>particularly most recently when Mayor Adams decided that he wouldn't

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 4>seek reelection, is that I will have more to say

0:12:55.720 --> 0:13:00.359
<v Speaker 4>about the mayor's race in advance of early voting in.

0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 6>New York City, which begins at the end of this month.

0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.480
<v Speaker 2>Stay with US Mulplan tax savandance coming up after this.

0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.840
<v Speaker 3>Reaching a deal to release all of the hostages in Kaza,

0:13:21.160 --> 0:13:24.920
<v Speaker 3>President Trump saying he expects the hostages to be released

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 3>probably on Monday. Joining US now is Danny Denon, Israel's

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:30.440
<v Speaker 3>ambassador Cheesy United Nations.

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>Danny, Ambassador Donna.

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.880
<v Speaker 3>I'd love to get your sense of what the mood

0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.720
<v Speaker 3>is like in Israel and why it has taken up

0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 3>to this point that really got this deal together and

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:42.480
<v Speaker 3>really changed the tone.

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:45.320
<v Speaker 7>Good morning, Lisa, Thank you for having me.

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.200
<v Speaker 8>Indeed today in Israel all around the world, we are

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 8>very hopeful.

0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 7>You know, we have been waiting for the day for

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:52.760
<v Speaker 7>two years.

0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:55.600
<v Speaker 8>We prayed for the release of the hostages, and we

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.160
<v Speaker 8>were very determined and we stayed it very clear.

0:13:58.320 --> 0:13:59.480
<v Speaker 7>This worle will not end.

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.320
<v Speaker 8>We will get all the hostages out and I think

0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.720
<v Speaker 8>that determination brought us to the position where we are today,

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.520
<v Speaker 8>and we want to thank President Trump and Prime Minister

0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.559
<v Speaker 8>and Tanyau for the leadership. It's only the beginning, it's

0:14:11.559 --> 0:14:14.920
<v Speaker 8>only the first aage. The government will decide in two

0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 8>hours about releasing terrorists, which is painful for us, and

0:14:19.080 --> 0:14:22.520
<v Speaker 8>then we will start to see hopefully the hostages coming

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 8>back home. That's the most important faith, but it's not

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.680
<v Speaker 8>the last one. You know, we have to speak about

0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 8>the future, the dimlitarization of Gaza, ensuring that Hamas will.

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.560
<v Speaker 7>Not be part of the process over there.

0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:38.120
<v Speaker 8>So it did a long way ahead, but we are

0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 8>very hopeful and happy today to think about the hostages

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 8>finally reuniting with the families.

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 5>Ambassador, is it your understanding that President Trump is going

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 5>to travel to Israel and address the Kannesse.

0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:54.920
<v Speaker 8>Yes, you know, we expect Prethident Traump to arrive to

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:59.000
<v Speaker 8>it well late Saturday night or on Sunday. You know,

0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 8>it will be first visit during this term, and I

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.920
<v Speaker 8>think for him it's very important. You know, he was

0:15:05.040 --> 0:15:07.400
<v Speaker 8>very involved with the issue of the hostages. You know,

0:15:07.480 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 8>he met with the families, he asked about their medical conditions,

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 8>and we have to give him credit for that, and

0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.120
<v Speaker 8>it speaks volume that he comes to the region and

0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 8>we have to be thankful not only to his leadership,

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.360
<v Speaker 8>but the fact that now we can speak about expanding

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:24.440
<v Speaker 8>the Abraham accodes.

0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 7>You know, after we will finish this war, is really

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 7>a peaceful nation.

0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:30.640
<v Speaker 8>We want to build bridges, we want to sign more

0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 8>peace accordes, and I think today when President's ramping in

0:15:33.960 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 8>the White House and in Jerusalem, we can start exploring

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 8>the opportunities.

0:15:39.600 --> 0:15:42.280
<v Speaker 5>When it comes to the first phase of this peace agreement,

0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:45.400
<v Speaker 5>where exactly do you see the line where the idea

0:15:45.720 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 5>will withdraw to.

0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:49.560
<v Speaker 7>Well, that was negotiated.

0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 8>You know, we made some compromises over there over that issue.

0:15:53.560 --> 0:15:57.440
<v Speaker 8>On the last days. Basically we're going to pull out

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:01.200
<v Speaker 8>from the cities. And you know, we have no intention

0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:03.320
<v Speaker 8>to stay in Gaza. We don't want to be there,

0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.160
<v Speaker 8>and we will intend to pull out completely. But it

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:09.560
<v Speaker 8>will happen gradually when we will see that actually Hamas

0:16:09.720 --> 0:16:12.840
<v Speaker 8>is giving away, it's a grip of the of the

0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 8>Gatherans and allowing international.

0:16:15.000 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 7>Forces to take over.

0:16:16.440 --> 0:16:20.440
<v Speaker 8>We care about our security, that's the reason we moved

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:21.160
<v Speaker 8>into Gaza.

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.120
<v Speaker 3>You're the ambassador to the United Nations, where a number

0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:30.480
<v Speaker 3>of world leaders walked out when Natanya, who was speaking just.

0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:31.600
<v Speaker 1>A couple of weeks ago.

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 3>I'm just wondering how difficult you think it's going to

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.280
<v Speaker 3>be the repair Israel's relationship with the rest of the world,

0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 3>given some of the animosity that we've seen of late.

0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:42.800
<v Speaker 8>I think we will do it very fast. You know,

0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 8>we have strong relationship with so many countries. Many of them,

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, made mistakes. You know, we saw the difference

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:54.040
<v Speaker 8>between politics and diplomacy. Some leaders like Macron and others

0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 8>came to the UN for the show for the declarations

0:16:57.200 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 8>President Trump and primarily to NATANIAO dealt with out call

0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:04.160
<v Speaker 8>diplomacy and both resorts. So I'm sure that very fast

0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.200
<v Speaker 8>we will be able to work with those countries, continue

0:17:07.200 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 8>to contribute to developing countries. You know, we have a

0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:12.159
<v Speaker 8>lot to do, a lot to share. We paid the

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:14.560
<v Speaker 8>heavy price, and I have to mention the price we paid.

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:18.359
<v Speaker 8>More than one thousandthologists died since October seventh.

0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:22.200
<v Speaker 7>It's painful for us, but we are strong and we prevailed.

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:26.160
<v Speaker 3>And I'm also wondering about whether there have been any

0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:31.359
<v Speaker 3>discussions to restart talks to normalize relations between Israel and

0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:34.560
<v Speaker 3>some of your other Middle East neighbors, and thinking of

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:37.200
<v Speaker 3>Saudi Arabia, where that was clearly a discussion before this.

0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 1>But others as well.

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:40.800
<v Speaker 3>Is that already on the table or is that a

0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:41.600
<v Speaker 3>long ways off?

0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:44.560
<v Speaker 7>We definitely expected to happen.

0:17:44.880 --> 0:17:47.879
<v Speaker 8>You know, first we have to stabilize the situation, to

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.640
<v Speaker 8>make sure that actually Hamas is out of the game.

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:52.679
<v Speaker 7>You know, it's not a given. You know, we have

0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:54.400
<v Speaker 7>to make sure that out of the game.

0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:56.919
<v Speaker 8>And I think it will be the interest of Israel,

0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:59.639
<v Speaker 8>the US, and many moderatest countries.

0:17:59.280 --> 0:17:59.920
<v Speaker 7>To move forward.

0:18:00.440 --> 0:18:02.720
<v Speaker 8>And it's important to mention that, you know, the Abraham

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:07.280
<v Speaker 8>Coos countries sticks to the peace agreement we signed with them,

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:10.680
<v Speaker 8>even though it was challenging and difficult for them during

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 8>the war, and we appreciate that.

0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:16.720
<v Speaker 5>Are you concerned with a fragile relationship with Egypt? Earlier

0:18:16.840 --> 0:18:20.840
<v Speaker 5>in September, we had President LCCI talk about the fact

0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 5>that Israel was a quote enemy, and we've seen a

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 5>lot of acrimonious statements and individuals saying it's almost the

0:18:26.880 --> 0:18:29.560
<v Speaker 5>closest these two countries have been to war since nineteen

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 5>seventy nine.

0:18:31.320 --> 0:18:34.360
<v Speaker 8>Now we have a stronger bond with the Egyptian government.

0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.720
<v Speaker 8>You know, we know that during the war it wasn't

0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.680
<v Speaker 8>the domestic politics some of those leaders and they had

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:44.399
<v Speaker 8>to play the game. But we collaborate with Egyptians and

0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.879
<v Speaker 8>I think now we should aim to expending peace.

0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:48.520
<v Speaker 7>That's our goal in the future.

0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:52.280
<v Speaker 5>Well, when it comes to Egypt and Cutter and United

0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 5>Arab Emirates, which you already have a peace agreement with,

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.960
<v Speaker 5>how do you see these countries working with Israel when

0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:04.160
<v Speaker 5>it comes to face two and three of rebuilding Gaza, Well.

0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:05.439
<v Speaker 7>I think it will be more than that.

0:19:05.600 --> 0:19:08.720
<v Speaker 8>It will require the involvement of more countries and I

0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:10.679
<v Speaker 8>cannot name name it, but we are talking with the

0:19:11.000 --> 0:19:14.240
<v Speaker 8>major players that are willing to contribute to the efforts

0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:18.560
<v Speaker 8>for the reconstruction of Gada. And it's not only physical reconstruction.

0:19:18.960 --> 0:19:23.000
<v Speaker 8>We have to build the environment, a society that will

0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:27.040
<v Speaker 8>not glorify terrorism. You know, for twenty years Hamas took

0:19:27.640 --> 0:19:30.520
<v Speaker 8>the people of Gada hostage, and I think now Dava

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:33.359
<v Speaker 8>the option to build a better future and have to

0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:36.280
<v Speaker 8>be responsible about it and not allow radicals to take

0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:37.160
<v Speaker 8>over Gada again.

0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:40.720
<v Speaker 9>Stay with us.

0:19:41.040 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 2>More plan Taxavidance coming up after this.

0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:55.399
<v Speaker 3>Turning back to the broader markets, the stocks trade near

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:59.639
<v Speaker 3>all time highs. Richard Bernstein of RB Advisors, writing, markets

0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 3>are ins some sort of speculative fervor. It is very

0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:05.400
<v Speaker 3>obvious that investors are not risk averse.

0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Richard joins us now is probably an understatement.

0:20:08.040 --> 0:20:10.399
<v Speaker 3>Richard, I am curious whether you think it's gone too

0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:13.119
<v Speaker 3>far or do you get on the train and follow momentum.

0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:16.359
<v Speaker 10>So, Lisa, good morning, It's great to be with you.

0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 10>I think the problem with being a momentum investor is

0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:21.639
<v Speaker 10>never trying to figure out should we get on the train.

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 10>I mean, that's easy. You can see what's going on

0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:27.040
<v Speaker 10>the moment. The key to momentum investing is knowing when

0:20:27.119 --> 0:20:28.960
<v Speaker 10>to sell and when to get off right, Like who

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:31.760
<v Speaker 10>sold technology stocks at the peak of the bubble in

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:35.200
<v Speaker 10>March of two thousand. That would be the perfect momentum investor.

0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:38.760
<v Speaker 10>And we know from history that people are very bad sellers.

0:20:38.800 --> 0:20:41.960
<v Speaker 10>And so I think what the speculative environment really shows

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:44.600
<v Speaker 10>is that the most important part of a portfolio right

0:20:44.640 --> 0:20:48.399
<v Speaker 10>now is diversification. You may want to play momentum, but

0:20:48.520 --> 0:20:51.320
<v Speaker 10>don't overplay momentum.

0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:53.600
<v Speaker 3>To just underscore what you're saying are you selling tech

0:20:53.600 --> 0:20:54.440
<v Speaker 3>stocks right now?

0:20:55.480 --> 0:20:59.840
<v Speaker 10>So we have been famous or infamous for not overweighting them,

0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:03.359
<v Speaker 10>So I don't think we have to sell anything because

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:06.199
<v Speaker 10>we're not overweight. I think what we've done, though, what

0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:09.480
<v Speaker 10>we've done very effectively in our portfolios is find other

0:21:09.560 --> 0:21:13.160
<v Speaker 10>areas that people are ignoring that are performing quite well,

0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:15.679
<v Speaker 10>you know, whether that be non US quality, whether that

0:21:15.760 --> 0:21:18.840
<v Speaker 10>be dividends, whether that be small and MidCap industrials. I

0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:20.720
<v Speaker 10>think there's lots of different things that have been performing

0:21:20.720 --> 0:21:23.160
<v Speaker 10>well that are way off of people's radars.

0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 5>But when it comes to historically how it's difficult for

0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:29.679
<v Speaker 5>individuals to sell during all of this momentum, what are

0:21:29.720 --> 0:21:31.720
<v Speaker 5>you looking at that would give you the signs that

0:21:31.760 --> 0:21:33.440
<v Speaker 5>potentially this could be the meltdown?

0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.399
<v Speaker 10>So I think, you know, like, if you want to

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:40.440
<v Speaker 10>look for a risk, I think the risk to look

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:44.920
<v Speaker 10>for right now is can the FED cut rates as

0:21:45.080 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 10>much as the market is presently anticipating and as much

0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:51.920
<v Speaker 10>as investors are presently anticipating. And the reason I say

0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 10>that is that people forget that the FED is the

0:21:54.119 --> 0:21:58.240
<v Speaker 10>central bank, and that is the keyword bank, and that

0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 10>the way they impart monetary policy is through the banking system.

0:22:02.640 --> 0:22:05.439
<v Speaker 10>So if the banking system is hesitant to lend, then

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:07.760
<v Speaker 10>the FED cuts rates to try and make the cost

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:11.359
<v Speaker 10>of funding cheaper for banks to encourage lending. If the

0:22:11.920 --> 0:22:15.280
<v Speaker 10>banking sector is lending too much, then the economy is overheating.

0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:19.400
<v Speaker 10>The FED will raise interest rates to try to increase

0:22:19.400 --> 0:22:21.720
<v Speaker 10>the cost of funding to slow down lending, which in

0:22:21.720 --> 0:22:24.000
<v Speaker 10>turn will slow the economy. So the question we should

0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:25.560
<v Speaker 10>all be asking right now, and the question the FED

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:28.760
<v Speaker 10>should be asking, is where is the hiccup in the

0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:33.360
<v Speaker 10>financial sector that is constraining lending, which is constraining growth.

0:22:33.720 --> 0:22:36.119
<v Speaker 10>I think that's very hard to find right now.

0:22:36.480 --> 0:22:39.040
<v Speaker 5>Well, if there isn't one, then do you think the

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 5>FED should be cutting out all the rest of the year.

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:45.359
<v Speaker 10>I I don't. Look, I can't tell you whether they

0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:47.639
<v Speaker 10>should or they shouldn't. It sound like JPL's calling me

0:22:47.680 --> 0:22:50.119
<v Speaker 10>up and asking me, rich should I cut rates? So

0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:52.480
<v Speaker 10>what I think they should do maybe irrelevant. I think

0:22:52.680 --> 0:22:57.520
<v Speaker 10>what's important is for investors to think about that risk

0:22:57.760 --> 0:23:01.480
<v Speaker 10>and to think about what the comes could be. And

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:03.880
<v Speaker 10>what I was saying before, you know that you may

0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:06.080
<v Speaker 10>want to be better diversified than you were a month

0:23:06.119 --> 0:23:08.640
<v Speaker 10>ago or two months ago, or certainly six months ago.

0:23:09.520 --> 0:23:11.280
<v Speaker 10>And I think that's the way to think about what's

0:23:11.320 --> 0:23:13.320
<v Speaker 10>going on here. I think it's going to be more

0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:16.200
<v Speaker 10>difficult for the FED to cut rates than they think

0:23:16.280 --> 0:23:19.920
<v Speaker 10>right now, and certainly more difficult than the markets think

0:23:20.000 --> 0:23:20.400
<v Speaker 10>right now.

0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:22.080
<v Speaker 1>You've been in the market a long time, Richard.

0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:24.399
<v Speaker 3>One thing that's been very interesting to me is how

0:23:24.480 --> 0:23:27.879
<v Speaker 3>much the idea of diversification has shifted over the past

0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:30.880
<v Speaker 3>five years. And I just wonder when you say diversify,

0:23:31.359 --> 0:23:34.320
<v Speaker 3>how much that has a different meaning today than say,

0:23:34.680 --> 0:23:37.960
<v Speaker 3>the sixty forty portfolio of your Oh.

0:23:38.000 --> 0:23:41.040
<v Speaker 10>Absolutely, And I think part of that, Lisa, is the

0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:44.520
<v Speaker 10>sixty percent portfolio. You know, your stock portfolio has turned

0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:46.920
<v Speaker 10>out to be like seven or ten or twenty stocks,

0:23:46.960 --> 0:23:50.000
<v Speaker 10>And so how much diversification do you even get just

0:23:50.000 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 10>by going sixty forty. I think that's right. I think

0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:56.040
<v Speaker 10>one has to look at should be looking at things

0:23:56.080 --> 0:24:00.840
<v Speaker 10>like commodities, should be looking at various alternative investments, with

0:24:00.400 --> 0:24:05.040
<v Speaker 10>the reasoning that alts is not a real category, like

0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:07.600
<v Speaker 10>it really likes to say alternatives. That's kind of silly,

0:24:07.640 --> 0:24:09.280
<v Speaker 10>that's like kind of saying I want to be invested.

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:12.960
<v Speaker 10>There are different kinds of waults that have different goals

0:24:12.960 --> 0:24:15.160
<v Speaker 10>and different things like that, and I think it's worth

0:24:15.200 --> 0:24:18.439
<v Speaker 10>looking at some of that. But I don't think, you know,

0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:21.399
<v Speaker 10>one should be saying there's only seven growth stories in

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:23.080
<v Speaker 10>the world. That seems silly to me.

0:24:23.400 --> 0:24:25.560
<v Speaker 1>Do you think that there is a story to play?

0:24:25.680 --> 0:24:28.120
<v Speaker 3>And I keep thinking about what Almos Hokstein had to say,

0:24:28.440 --> 0:24:31.399
<v Speaker 3>former White House senior advisor as well as a player

0:24:31.480 --> 0:24:34.520
<v Speaker 3>now in the space of infrastructure with energy and AI.

0:24:34.640 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 3>I just wonder how much the market is fully appreciated

0:24:38.160 --> 0:24:41.919
<v Speaker 3>how much investment has to go into infrastructure and the

0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:44.199
<v Speaker 3>real economy. Certainly that is a very hot area in

0:24:44.240 --> 0:24:47.280
<v Speaker 3>private markets. Do you see ways to get into that

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.639
<v Speaker 3>kind of idea in public markets or beyond that haven't

0:24:50.640 --> 0:24:51.919
<v Speaker 3>fully been tapped.

0:24:52.359 --> 0:24:56.960
<v Speaker 10>So, Lisa, I think the best long term investment story

0:24:57.440 --> 0:25:00.719
<v Speaker 10>is all about small and MidCap industrial company these and

0:25:00.760 --> 0:25:03.439
<v Speaker 10>the reindustrialization of the United States and the infrastructure that

0:25:03.440 --> 0:25:05.359
<v Speaker 10>has to go along with that. You know, one of

0:25:05.400 --> 0:25:07.600
<v Speaker 10>the things that people have talked a lot about is

0:25:08.520 --> 0:25:11.040
<v Speaker 10>the price of electricity. And I don't know if you're aware,

0:25:11.160 --> 0:25:14.040
<v Speaker 10>but in the last five years we have had the

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:17.520
<v Speaker 10>biggest run up in electricity prices in modern American history.

0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:20.720
<v Speaker 10>They're up nationwide by like eighty percent in the last

0:25:20.760 --> 0:25:22.719
<v Speaker 10>five years. This has become for those of you who

0:25:22.760 --> 0:25:24.080
<v Speaker 10>live in New York, New Jersey, you know, this has

0:25:24.119 --> 0:25:27.080
<v Speaker 10>become a big issue in the New Jersey gogmunuatorial election.

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.720
<v Speaker 10>They're talking about electricity prices. Well, you know, the thing

0:25:30.760 --> 0:25:34.959
<v Speaker 10>that people always forget is that bubbles misallocate capital and

0:25:35.000 --> 0:25:38.240
<v Speaker 10>in doing so, they are inflationary. And I think electricity

0:25:38.240 --> 0:25:40.640
<v Speaker 10>prices are a classic one. Where we're building out data

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:44.119
<v Speaker 10>centers before the infrastructure is built. That's like building factories

0:25:44.119 --> 0:25:45.960
<v Speaker 10>before the roads are built to move the stuff in

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.800
<v Speaker 10>and out from the factory. It's silly to think that way.

0:25:49.520 --> 0:25:51.800
<v Speaker 10>And here's a good way to think about this misallocation

0:25:51.880 --> 0:25:55.040
<v Speaker 10>of capital that's going on the economy that is so inflationary.

0:25:55.440 --> 0:25:59.280
<v Speaker 10>Imagine if all the capital that was going into cryptocurrencies

0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:03.720
<v Speaker 10>in dead was invested in the US electric grid. Would

0:26:03.760 --> 0:26:06.919
<v Speaker 10>we be having electricity prices up by the most in

0:26:07.040 --> 0:26:09.320
<v Speaker 10>modern American history? I don't think so.

0:26:09.320 --> 0:26:12.280
<v Speaker 3>So are you buying electric grid related stocks? Is that

0:26:12.359 --> 0:26:15.000
<v Speaker 3>sort of what you're saying, That's that's where it needs

0:26:15.000 --> 0:26:15.199
<v Speaker 3>to go.

0:26:16.359 --> 0:26:18.320
<v Speaker 10>Well, it has been that has been a sub theme

0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:21.159
<v Speaker 10>of ours for like a decade. There's nothing new for

0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 10>those of us at RBA. I mean it is, you know,

0:26:24.359 --> 0:26:28.439
<v Speaker 10>the notion of small and MidCap industrial companies includes you know,

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:30.919
<v Speaker 10>things like the grid, includes all this kind of you know,

0:26:30.960 --> 0:26:34.640
<v Speaker 10>industrial infrastructure type stuff. So you know, you always say

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:37.040
<v Speaker 10>to people, imagine if you go to a cocktail party

0:26:37.080 --> 0:26:40.160
<v Speaker 10>and you didn't talk about in Nvidia, but you tried

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:43.200
<v Speaker 10>to get people interested in carbon wire, I think you'd

0:26:43.240 --> 0:26:44.600
<v Speaker 10>be the skunk at the cocktail party.

0:26:45.080 --> 0:26:48.159
<v Speaker 3>It would go back to the graduate plastics really enjoyed that, right,

0:26:48.240 --> 0:26:51.600
<v Speaker 3>this copper wire. I am just curious going forward how

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.240
<v Speaker 3>much signal you take from the likes of Delta and

0:26:54.280 --> 0:26:57.560
<v Speaker 3>PEPSI earnings coming out better than expected. Delta in particular

0:26:57.640 --> 0:27:00.840
<v Speaker 3>talking about how travel is accelerated, not just the front

0:27:00.840 --> 0:27:04.000
<v Speaker 3>of the cabin but more broadly even in the economy sections.

0:27:04.359 --> 0:27:07.040
<v Speaker 3>How much do you take that as the economic data

0:27:07.080 --> 0:27:09.159
<v Speaker 3>to hint your heat on and sort of bet on,

0:27:09.280 --> 0:27:12.680
<v Speaker 3>even if you're diversified, the ongoing momentum in this economy.

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 10>Oh well, there's there's no question Lisa about is the

0:27:15.800 --> 0:27:16.639
<v Speaker 10>economy healthy?

0:27:17.040 --> 0:27:17.240
<v Speaker 5>Right?

0:27:17.280 --> 0:27:20.119
<v Speaker 10>I mean the Atlanta FEDS GDP now is tracking if

0:27:20.119 --> 0:27:22.600
<v Speaker 10>I'm not mistaken, and roughly about three and a half

0:27:22.680 --> 0:27:26.520
<v Speaker 10>to four percent. I mean that's pretty good growth by

0:27:26.600 --> 0:27:29.239
<v Speaker 10>US standards. I would say, so there should be no

0:27:29.320 --> 0:27:32.000
<v Speaker 10>doubt that the economy is healthy. I mean, we could

0:27:32.040 --> 0:27:34.919
<v Speaker 10>argue about whether that's evenly divided among the economy and

0:27:34.920 --> 0:27:36.880
<v Speaker 10>how that's you know, what parts of the economy are healthy,

0:27:37.240 --> 0:27:41.520
<v Speaker 10>but the general economy is actually quite healthy. And you know,

0:27:41.520 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 10>if you think about nominal growth, you think about the

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:45.879
<v Speaker 10>three and a half to four percent real growth, plus

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:48.439
<v Speaker 10>you think about we could argue, let's say three to

0:27:48.520 --> 0:27:51.320
<v Speaker 10>four percent inflation, depending on how you're measuring it. You know,

0:27:51.359 --> 0:27:55.040
<v Speaker 10>we're talking, you know, six to seven percent nominal growth.

0:27:55.560 --> 0:27:57.760
<v Speaker 10>I mean that's that's a pretty strong environment. And that's

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.560
<v Speaker 10>one of the reasons why I don't think people I

0:28:00.600 --> 0:28:03.000
<v Speaker 10>think people are overestimating the ability to FED to come

0:28:03.080 --> 0:28:05.840
<v Speaker 10>rates going forward. Seven percent nominal growth, I mean, that's

0:28:05.880 --> 0:28:06.800
<v Speaker 10>pretty strong growth.

0:28:08.600 --> 0:28:12.040
<v Speaker 2>Stay with us mulblindex. Savannah's coming up off to this.

0:28:21.359 --> 0:28:25.080
<v Speaker 3>US Treasury Secretary Scott Beston has finished interviewing eleven candidates

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:28.399
<v Speaker 3>to replace FED chair J Powell. According to The Financial Times,

0:28:28.440 --> 0:28:31.080
<v Speaker 3>candidates were grilled for up to two hours on their

0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:34.760
<v Speaker 3>views on interest rates and FED reforms, and perhaps we

0:28:34.800 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 3>will actually get a couple of the final candidates who

0:28:38.240 --> 0:28:41.680
<v Speaker 3>can make their debut in discussions and in the race.

0:28:41.720 --> 0:28:44.560
<v Speaker 3>Sticking with the Federal Reserve FED minutes showing caution to

0:28:44.640 --> 0:28:48.000
<v Speaker 3>ease driven by inflation concerns, Vincent Reinhardt B and Y

0:28:48.120 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 3>Investments writing this. With the federal government shut down, less

0:28:51.680 --> 0:28:55.080
<v Speaker 3>data are available, which we think makes a data dependent

0:28:55.120 --> 0:28:56.960
<v Speaker 3>FED more likely to ease.

0:28:57.040 --> 0:28:59.000
<v Speaker 1>Vincent joins us, Now, wonderful to see you. It's been

0:28:59.040 --> 0:28:59.520
<v Speaker 1>too long.

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 3>I want to start there this idea that actually the

0:29:02.200 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 3>meeting minutes showed what the dots showed, which is a

0:29:05.280 --> 0:29:08.440
<v Speaker 3>huge dispersion of opinions and a lot of people who

0:29:08.480 --> 0:29:11.440
<v Speaker 3>were reluctant to ease again heading into the year end.

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:15.720
<v Speaker 3>Why does the government shut down change your calculus?

0:29:15.720 --> 0:29:18.800
<v Speaker 11>So what they did in September lays the tracks down

0:29:18.880 --> 0:29:20.440
<v Speaker 11>for what they do in October.

0:29:20.680 --> 0:29:22.520
<v Speaker 9>And what did they do in September?

0:29:22.560 --> 0:29:26.680
<v Speaker 11>They eased, but they didn't strongly signal policy action, and

0:29:26.720 --> 0:29:32.479
<v Speaker 11>they emphasized data dependence, and then they let everyone express

0:29:32.560 --> 0:29:35.440
<v Speaker 11>their own view in the summary of economic projections. Makes

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 11>it really hard to send a coherent message when you

0:29:37.920 --> 0:29:42.960
<v Speaker 11>let everyone address their own view of the appropriate policy rate.

0:29:43.320 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 11>But what was important about that is they were leaning

0:29:47.800 --> 0:29:52.440
<v Speaker 11>toward policy ease and said they were data dependent. What

0:29:52.480 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 11>that means is the data has to stop them, i e.

0:29:57.440 --> 0:30:00.800
<v Speaker 11>Do you get evidence that disproves the case that it's

0:30:00.840 --> 0:30:05.240
<v Speaker 11>appropriate to ease. That's what reconciled the whole group to

0:30:05.320 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 11>the policy choice. Guess what, they don't have data that

0:30:09.960 --> 0:30:11.040
<v Speaker 11>can disprove the case.

0:30:11.240 --> 0:30:14.280
<v Speaker 3>We just got data about six minutes ago from Delta.

0:30:14.520 --> 0:30:15.800
<v Speaker 1>They came out with their earnings and.

0:30:15.760 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 3>The expectation that actually there's going to be a reacceleration

0:30:18.480 --> 0:30:20.640
<v Speaker 3>into the end of this year with consumer demand not

0:30:20.720 --> 0:30:22.120
<v Speaker 3>just at the front of the cabin but throughout the

0:30:22.240 --> 0:30:25.200
<v Speaker 3>entire cabin coming back. I just wonder, is that data

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:27.320
<v Speaker 3>that actually should be relied on more given the fact

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:30.680
<v Speaker 3>that we aren't getting official data and the data that have.

0:30:30.760 --> 0:30:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Been released by the United States have been.

0:30:33.120 --> 0:30:37.360
<v Speaker 11>Mixed, so they'll have to rely more on private data.

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 11>They're already scraping lots of big data sources. There's lots

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:46.120
<v Speaker 11>of individual vendors, and don't forget it's the federal Reserve system,

0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:49.240
<v Speaker 11>which means that you have all that staff at Reserve

0:30:49.400 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 11>Bank talking to business people all over the country in

0:30:54.920 --> 0:30:58.400
<v Speaker 11>their summarizing that in their page book. So they have

0:30:58.480 --> 0:31:03.000
<v Speaker 11>a lot of sources of information. They don't have an

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:09.400
<v Speaker 11>officialture on it. But that has a couple consequences. One

0:31:09.520 --> 0:31:14.000
<v Speaker 11>is they're not flying blind. However, we are more in

0:31:14.040 --> 0:31:18.440
<v Speaker 11>the dark about how they're flying because they're using private

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 11>information that won't be conveyed to us.

0:31:21.440 --> 0:31:23.200
<v Speaker 5>Okay, but you were at the FED for what almost

0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 5>a decade?

0:31:24.280 --> 0:31:26.280
<v Speaker 9>It's actually a quarter century.

0:31:25.840 --> 0:31:30.120
<v Speaker 5>But okay, well tell us what do you think they're

0:31:30.160 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 5>looking at? That's not the gold standard economic data that

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:33.600
<v Speaker 5>comes out of BLS.

0:31:34.640 --> 0:31:39.800
<v Speaker 11>So what I can tell here is you're filling the

0:31:39.960 --> 0:31:43.479
<v Speaker 11>entire media block with the news that is out, and

0:31:43.520 --> 0:31:49.400
<v Speaker 11>that's earnings reports, and so they are looking at whatever

0:31:49.440 --> 0:31:51.720
<v Speaker 11>they got, and what do they have. They have a

0:31:51.800 --> 0:31:56.080
<v Speaker 11>lot more than they had previously, Lots of information from

0:31:56.160 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 11>credit card processors, lots of information from the big block

0:32:01.840 --> 0:32:09.240
<v Speaker 11>stores that have up to the minute data on pricing

0:32:09.560 --> 0:32:16.200
<v Speaker 11>and sales. They'll get credit reports, they'll get the anecdotal reports.

0:32:16.240 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 9>And what do we notice in COVID there was a.

0:32:19.760 --> 0:32:26.040
<v Speaker 11>Whole blossoming of new indicators of high frequency demand. What

0:32:26.200 --> 0:32:30.520
<v Speaker 11>was that You apply a lot of resources with a

0:32:30.080 --> 0:32:31.480
<v Speaker 11>lot of information.

0:32:31.560 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 9>They're going to do their best and that's what they're doing.

0:32:33.640 --> 0:32:33.840
<v Speaker 6>Now.

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:35.720
<v Speaker 5>There's not a ton of debate about what the FED

0:32:35.720 --> 0:32:37.200
<v Speaker 5>will do the rest of the year. How are you

0:32:37.200 --> 0:32:39.840
<v Speaker 5>thinking about next year? Especially as Lisa was just mentioning,

0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:42.320
<v Speaker 5>the treasure Secretary just wrapped up his interviews for who's

0:32:42.360 --> 0:32:43.120
<v Speaker 5>going to lead the FED?

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:45.959
<v Speaker 9>Completely different. This year is easy.

0:32:46.280 --> 0:32:50.200
<v Speaker 11>This year is let's agree on a macro forecast. Let's

0:32:50.320 --> 0:32:54.479
<v Speaker 11>think how has the FED previously acted, what is an

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:58.280
<v Speaker 11>appropriate policy rule? And then just plug your numbers in

0:32:58.720 --> 0:33:02.200
<v Speaker 11>and that will get you probably another half point of

0:33:02.280 --> 0:33:05.720
<v Speaker 11>easing in twenty twenty five. It's a closer call toward

0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:10.280
<v Speaker 11>the end of the year exactly, because maybe inflation will

0:33:10.280 --> 0:33:15.480
<v Speaker 11>come up, maybe the economy won't soften as much as

0:33:14.920 --> 0:33:19.920
<v Speaker 11>they're worried because they're easing. As for risk management, they're

0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:22.320
<v Speaker 11>buying insurance by the end of the year, they may

0:33:22.320 --> 0:33:26.680
<v Speaker 11>not need it next year. Completely different. Why because the

0:33:26.720 --> 0:33:31.000
<v Speaker 11>Federal Reserve system is set up so that the leadership

0:33:31.080 --> 0:33:36.480
<v Speaker 11>of the FED turns over with the political process, So

0:33:36.520 --> 0:33:42.000
<v Speaker 11>the administration will get new slots and the Federal Reserve system.

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:46.480
<v Speaker 11>The whole is set up to give the board pre

0:33:46.560 --> 0:33:51.280
<v Speaker 11>eminent role in monetary policy, so the White House is

0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:51.880
<v Speaker 11>going to use that.

0:33:52.480 --> 0:33:55.440
<v Speaker 3>As an economist watching this, does it worry you that

0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 3>you've seen such a devaluation of the dollar and that

0:33:58.320 --> 0:34:02.080
<v Speaker 3>you've seen gold increasingly take hold as a haven type

0:34:02.120 --> 0:34:02.680
<v Speaker 3>of instrument.

0:34:03.520 --> 0:34:07.640
<v Speaker 11>So I have a Bloomberg worksheet right on my desk,

0:34:07.720 --> 0:34:11.040
<v Speaker 11>which is independence Watch. What do you look for if

0:34:11.080 --> 0:34:16.520
<v Speaker 11>there were concerns about the future of central bank monitor

0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:20.279
<v Speaker 11>policy making in the United States? You would look at

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:23.120
<v Speaker 11>non dollar assets, so you would look at gold, You

0:34:23.160 --> 0:34:25.760
<v Speaker 11>look at the price of some crypto.

0:34:26.640 --> 0:34:28.040
<v Speaker 9>You would also look.

0:34:27.920 --> 0:34:30.880
<v Speaker 11>As hard as you can at the whole term structure

0:34:31.080 --> 0:34:32.560
<v Speaker 11>of US interest rates.

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:36.000
<v Speaker 9>A little worrying that, yes.

0:34:37.160 --> 0:34:41.719
<v Speaker 11>The very little volatility in the bond market ten years

0:34:41.280 --> 0:34:44.600
<v Speaker 11>has been flatlining, but the ten year ten year forward

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:48.880
<v Speaker 11>is drifted up, and some measures of inflation compensation have

0:34:49.200 --> 0:34:53.760
<v Speaker 11>come up. Thus far, not a lot of warning flores

0:34:53.840 --> 0:34:57.279
<v Speaker 11>flares and markets about worries about central bank independence, but

0:34:57.440 --> 0:34:58.680
<v Speaker 11>we think that's going to come.

0:35:00.160 --> 0:35:03.720
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

0:35:03.719 --> 0:35:07.040
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0:35:07.080 --> 0:35:10.040
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