1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. 10 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 3: Sticking with the shutdown, as tensions are rising on Capitol Hill, 11 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 3: House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries of New York is confident 12 00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 3: a spending bill can pass, but says Republicans must first 13 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 3: address what he calls healthcare crisis. House Leader Jeffries joins 14 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 3: us now, Congressman, thank. 15 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: You so much for being with us. 16 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 3: House Leader, I want to just start with whether you 17 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 3: feel confident that you can complete sort of agreement in 18 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: the next few days. Do you have a timeframe as 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 3: these discussions do continue. 20 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:08,600 Speaker 4: Welcome morning, and great to be with you. You know, 21 00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 4: as Democrats, we've repeatedly made clear we will sit down anytime, 22 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 4: any place with anyone, either here at Capitol Hill or 23 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 4: back at the White House, in order to reopen the government, 24 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 4: to enact the spending bill that actually meets the needs 25 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 4: of the American people as opposed to hurting everyday Americans. 26 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 4: And of course that spending bill must decisively address the 27 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 4: Republican healthcare crisis that is hurting working class Americans and 28 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 4: middle class Americans all throughout the country, including as it 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 4: relates to the urgent need to reauthorize and extend the 30 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 4: Affordable Care attax credits. 31 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 5: Well, the Speaker told us yesterday that Congress is having 32 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 5: these talks when it comes to subsidies reform. 33 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: Are you part of these talks? 34 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 5: And just a quick condolences because I know you like me, 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 5: we're up late watching the Yankees lose and I know 36 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 5: you're a huge fan. 37 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 1: Minority Leader Jeffries, Well, thank you. 38 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 4: They had a great season. Unfortunately it didn't in the 39 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 4: way that we expected. But on to next year. With 40 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 4: respect to know what the Speaker has indicated, there's been 41 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 4: no conversation between House Republicans and House Democrats. Are between 42 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 4: the Republican Party, Donald Trump, the administration, and any of 43 00:02:18,400 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 4: us on Capitol Hill, including our conversations that should be 44 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 4: taking place with Leader Schumer and Senate Democrats since that 45 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 4: White House meeting that occurred last Monday. That's unfortunate, and 46 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 4: the behavior of Republicans since that point in time has 47 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 4: been unseerrious and erratic, and we continue to urge them 48 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 4: to find a path forward, to sit down, let's talk 49 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 4: exercise common sense on behalf of the American people. But 50 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 4: anything that's done has to address this urgent need. You know, 51 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 4: the open enrollment period starts on November first. Over the 52 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 4: next few weeks, tens of millions of Americans are going 53 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 4: to receive notices indicating that their premiums, copaids, and deductibles 54 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 4: are about to skyrocket, in many instances by thousands of 55 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 4: dollars per year. People are going to go without health insurance, 56 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 4: face medical bankruptcy, and be jammed up in a situation 57 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 4: where they need care for themselves, their children, and their families, 58 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,200 Speaker 4: but will be unable to access it because they'll be 59 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 4: without health insurance. 60 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 5: It was a democratic policy, though your party voted for 61 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 5: this temporary subsidy increase. Do you regret having an expiration 62 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 5: date on. 63 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 4: This No, We were able to extend it through the 64 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 4: end of this year, in full anticipation that any reasonable 65 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 4: member of Congress will understand that you cannot kick tens 66 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 4: of millions of Americans off of health care that's become 67 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 4: affordable for them. 68 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 6: As a result of the tax credits. 69 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 4: Unfortunately, Republicans chose earlier this year to pass their one big, 70 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 4: ugly bill, largest cut to Medicaid in American history, ripped 71 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 4: food away from the mouths of hungry children and seniors 72 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 4: and veterans, and they did all of this to pay 73 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,520 Speaker 4: for massive tax breaks that they made permanent for their 74 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 4: billionaire donors well at the same time refusing to extend 75 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 4: the Affordable CARECT tax credits, which is why we find 76 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 4: ourselves in this situation. 77 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: Right now, Leader Jeffries. 78 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 3: Some people would argue that what the Republicans are offering 79 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 3: is to have a clean, continuing resolution and to continue 80 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 3: negotiating this given the fact that at the same time, 81 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 3: they are going to be service members who are not 82 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 3: going to be paid. There's going to be a question 83 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 3: around foodstab stamps and whether they're going to be funded. 84 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 3: Air traffic controllers are calling out sick because they're not 85 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 3: receiving paychecks. At what point do you just say, look, 86 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,200 Speaker 3: we need to keep people getting paid and we can 87 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:42,880 Speaker 3: keep talking. 88 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 4: We want to reopen the government, and we want to 89 00:04:45,440 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 4: reopen it immediately, but we also need to enact a 90 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 4: spending agreement that actually improves the quality of life of 91 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 4: the American people as opposed to hurting everyday Americans, which 92 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,800 Speaker 4: Republicans have been doing all throughout this year, and they've refused, 93 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 4: They've refused to negotiate at every step of the way 94 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 4: throughout this year. They've taken a my way or the 95 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 4: highway approach. They've gone it alone. And now we find 96 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 4: ourselves dealing with this mess of this Republican healthcare crisis, 97 00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 4: and time has run out. 98 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 3: Leader Jeffries, do you think that you've gotten more leverage 99 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 3: as this process has gone on, or do you think 100 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:20,360 Speaker 3: that it's actually waiting? 101 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 4: Well, it's actually not about leverage for us. It's about 102 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 4: the American people. That's the fight that we're waging. Particularly 103 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 4: in an environment where the cost of living is way 104 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 4: too high. 105 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 6: People are already. 106 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 4: Paying too much for groceries, for housing, for their electricity bills, 107 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,840 Speaker 4: and now, of course they're confronting the very real possibility 108 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:47,440 Speaker 4: of being bankrupted by the rising costs of their health insurance. 109 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 4: So we're just asking Republicans to sit down and negotiate. 110 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 4: That's what should take place, not simply a my way 111 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:58,960 Speaker 4: or the highway approach, particularly when they're asking Democrats to 112 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 4: support a part of san in Republicans spending bill that 113 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,239 Speaker 4: continues to gut the healthcare of the American people. 114 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,000 Speaker 5: Right now, Republicans are asking is to support a clean 115 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 5: continuous resolution, a scoff gap funding measure, which we've seen 116 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 5: time and time again that Democrats also wanted Republicans to 117 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 5: support in the fast passed Why are Democrats choosing to 118 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 5: keep the government shut? 119 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,919 Speaker 4: That's a Republican talking point, unfortunately, that they are putting 120 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 4: into the public domain. It's not a clean continuing resolution. 121 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:28,000 Speaker 1: Why isn't it In March? 122 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 6: I'd be happy to explain that. 123 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 4: In March, the Republicans passed a partisan bill in the 124 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:39,720 Speaker 4: House that Democrats strongly opposed. We opposed that spending bill 125 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 4: because it hurt veterans, hurt children and families, it hurt 126 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 4: housing affordability, and it hurt healthcare because of the cuts 127 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 4: that were included in it. There was actually a bipartisan 128 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 4: spending agreement that we reached last December that passed overwhelmingly 129 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 4: in the House and in the Senate. It was signed 130 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 4: into law by President Joe Biden, and it had the 131 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 4: support of then President elect Donald Trump. That would have 132 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 4: been a clean spending agreement that could have been put 133 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:14,239 Speaker 4: before the Congress. Instead, they passed this partisan, Republican spending 134 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 4: bill in March that we strongly opposed, and now they 135 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 4: want us to continue to sign off on that particular 136 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 4: bill that also includes five hundred million dollars and cuts 137 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 4: to law enforcement grants to support police officers all across 138 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:33,840 Speaker 4: the country. That's just not something for a variety of reasons, 139 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 4: we can support at this particular point in time. 140 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 5: Do you think the Democratic Party could commit to broader 141 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 5: reforms when it comes to the Affordable Care Act and 142 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 5: keeping less of the subsidies. Could this be potential offrame 143 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 5: for a deal. 144 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 4: I think that our view, certainly in the House is 145 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 4: that we will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan proposal 146 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 4: that is sent over to us from the Senate if 147 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 4: it decisively addresses the Republican healthcare crisis with respect to 148 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 4: the Affordable Care Act, tax credits, extensions, or any other 149 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 4: issues that may be put on the table because of 150 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 4: the enormity of the attack on the healthcare of the 151 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 4: American people that Republicans have waged this year. 152 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 6: It's got to be meaningful. 153 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,920 Speaker 4: It's got to actually improve the lives of the American people. 154 00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 6: But unlike Republicans who. 155 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 4: Have adopted this my way or the highway approach, we 156 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 4: are actually willing to sit down and evaluate in good 157 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 4: faith anything that could advance the ball here for working 158 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 4: class Americans, middle class Americans, and everyday Americans. 159 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 5: Is there an opportunity for standalone legislation to make sure 160 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 5: that the more than one million active duty service members 161 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 5: get paid next week. 162 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 4: Certainly, our view in the House is that we should 163 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 4: stand by our men and women in uniform and make 164 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 4: sure that they do not miss a paycheck. Unfortunately, Speaker 165 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,000 Speaker 4: Johnson has ruled that out, saying it's not really an 166 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 4: issue that he's prepared to deal with, in part because 167 00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 4: Republicans cancel votes last week, cancel votes this week, Apparently 168 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 4: they may not be coming back next week. And what 169 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 4: is that all for. Why are they on vacation in 170 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 4: the middle of a government shutdown, Particularly as it relates 171 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 4: to the real possibility that our military families might miss 172 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 4: a paycheck that they cannot afford to miss. We're urging 173 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 4: Republicans to get back into town, allow us to deal 174 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,160 Speaker 4: with the military pay issue, allow us to deal with 175 00:09:32,200 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 4: the Republican health care crisis, and allow us to reopen 176 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 4: the government so we can enact the spending agreement that 177 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 4: meets the needs of the American people. 178 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 5: Peter Jeffries, we also saw a pretty explosive argument between 179 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 5: you and the fellow New York Congressman Mike Lawler, and 180 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 5: then you proceeded to call Lawler an embarrassment on television. 181 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:55,559 Speaker 5: Was this fight representative of the state tensions that are 182 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 5: going on within the Republican Party in New York State 183 00:09:58,440 --> 00:09:59,679 Speaker 5: right now? 184 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 4: Well, Magi, Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He's a 185 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 4: clout chaser, and he was stalking the Democratic leadership press 186 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:12,640 Speaker 4: conference in ways that are unhinged. And at the end 187 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 4: of the day, our view is the people who need 188 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:19,839 Speaker 4: to sit down and have the conversation with US Republican 189 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 4: leadership in the House and in the Senate. The Trump administration, 190 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 4: including the President or the Vice president or anyone that 191 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 4: they designate, are the ones who are ultimately going to 192 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 4: determine how we can find a bipartisan path out of it, 193 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,239 Speaker 4: and we look forward to having those conversations, but unfortunately 194 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 4: Republicans to date have declined to do that. 195 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 5: Well, what was he doing that you deem unhinged? And 196 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 5: have you spoken to him since? Have tensions cooled? It 197 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 5: doesn't sound like they have. 198 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 4: He's an irrelevant individual and as I indicated, his behavior 199 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 4: clearly speaks for itself, complete and total embarrassment. As a 200 00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 4: description was a polite use of words. 201 00:10:58,600 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 7: Leader. 202 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 3: There's a question here about today is to get to 203 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 3: unify the Democratic Party because this is somebody who is 204 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 3: a Republican. He's not relevant in his district, and there 205 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,200 Speaker 3: is a question here, especially in New York, how to 206 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 3: get some sort of cohesive message as a Democrat. 207 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 1: I'm just wondering, from your perspective, especially. 208 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,560 Speaker 3: As it relates to the Democratic mayoral race in New 209 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 3: York City. 210 00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: You have an endorsed or on mcdonnie, how. 211 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:26,560 Speaker 3: Difficult is it to get sort of a leadership view 212 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 3: of where the Democratic Party is going to go? 213 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: Well, listen, as Democrats, what unites us is that we 214 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 4: believe in a strong flow and no ceiling at the 215 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 4: end of the day, in America, you work hard, you 216 00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 4: play by the rules, there should be no ceiling to 217 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,360 Speaker 4: your success in terms of what you can achieve for yourself, 218 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 4: for your family, and for your children. At the same 219 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 4: point in time, we also believe that in this great country, 220 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 4: the wealthiest country in the history of the world, that 221 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 4: we need. 222 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 6: A strong flow. 223 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 4: That strong flow includes social Security and Medicare, Medicaid supplemental 224 00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:02,200 Speaker 4: nutritional assistance, veterans benefits, and of course the Affordable Care Act. 225 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 4: And what unites Democrats at this particular point in time 226 00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 4: is the fact that Republicans are assaulting the flaw that 227 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 4: we should have for everyday Americans, while at the same 228 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 4: time rewarding their billionaire donors, and by the way, in 229 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 4: doing so, skyrocketing the debt by more than three trillion 230 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 4: dollars in such a fiscally irresponsible fashion. 231 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 5: Leader Jeffries, you did tell reporters last month you planned 232 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 5: to address the mayor race in New York soon. Do 233 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 5: you have a plan to endorse zoramm Donnie. 234 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,960 Speaker 4: We're in the middle of a government shut down. People 235 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 4: are being hurt all across the country because Trump and 236 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 4: Republicans decided to shut down the government rather than provide 237 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 4: healthcare to working class Americans. And so what I've indicated, 238 00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 4: particularly most recently when Mayor Adams decided that he wouldn't 239 00:12:53,080 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 4: seek reelection, is that I will have more to say 240 00:12:55,720 --> 00:13:00,359 Speaker 4: about the mayor's race in advance of early voting in. 241 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 6: New York City, which begins at the end of this month. 242 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 2: Stay with US Mulplan tax savandance coming up after this. 243 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 3: Reaching a deal to release all of the hostages in Kaza, 244 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:24,920 Speaker 3: President Trump saying he expects the hostages to be released 245 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 3: probably on Monday. Joining US now is Danny Denon, Israel's 246 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 3: ambassador Cheesy United Nations. 247 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 1: Danny, Ambassador Donna. 248 00:13:32,400 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 3: I'd love to get your sense of what the mood 249 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,720 Speaker 3: is like in Israel and why it has taken up 250 00:13:37,760 --> 00:13:41,240 Speaker 3: to this point that really got this deal together and 251 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 3: really changed the tone. 252 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 7: Good morning, Lisa, Thank you for having me. 253 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,200 Speaker 8: Indeed today in Israel all around the world, we are 254 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 8: very hopeful. 255 00:13:50,280 --> 00:13:52,000 Speaker 7: You know, we have been waiting for the day for 256 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 7: two years. 257 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 8: We prayed for the release of the hostages, and we 258 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,160 Speaker 8: were very determined and we stayed it very clear. 259 00:13:58,320 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 7: This worle will not end. 260 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 8: We will get all the hostages out and I think 261 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 8: that determination brought us to the position where we are today, 262 00:14:06,080 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 8: and we want to thank President Trump and Prime Minister 263 00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 8: and Tanyau for the leadership. It's only the beginning, it's 264 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 8: only the first aage. The government will decide in two 265 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 8: hours about releasing terrorists, which is painful for us, and 266 00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 8: then we will start to see hopefully the hostages coming 267 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 8: back home. That's the most important faith, but it's not 268 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 8: the last one. You know, we have to speak about 269 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 8: the future, the dimlitarization of Gaza, ensuring that Hamas will. 270 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 7: Not be part of the process over there. 271 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 8: So it did a long way ahead, but we are 272 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:42,400 Speaker 8: very hopeful and happy today to think about the hostages 273 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 8: finally reuniting with the families. 274 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 5: Ambassador, is it your understanding that President Trump is going 275 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:50,720 Speaker 5: to travel to Israel and address the Kannesse. 276 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 8: Yes, you know, we expect Prethident Traump to arrive to 277 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 8: it well late Saturday night or on Sunday. You know, 278 00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 8: it will be first visit during this term, and I 279 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 8: think for him it's very important. You know, he was 280 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,400 Speaker 8: very involved with the issue of the hostages. You know, 281 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 8: he met with the families, he asked about their medical conditions, 282 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 8: and we have to give him credit for that, and 283 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 8: it speaks volume that he comes to the region and 284 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 8: we have to be thankful not only to his leadership, 285 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 8: but the fact that now we can speak about expanding 286 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 8: the Abraham accodes. 287 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,040 Speaker 7: You know, after we will finish this war, is really 288 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 7: a peaceful nation. 289 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,640 Speaker 8: We want to build bridges, we want to sign more 290 00:15:30,680 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 8: peace accordes, and I think today when President's ramping in 291 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 8: the White House and in Jerusalem, we can start exploring 292 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 8: the opportunities. 293 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 5: When it comes to the first phase of this peace agreement, 294 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 5: where exactly do you see the line where the idea 295 00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 5: will withdraw to. 296 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 7: Well, that was negotiated. 297 00:15:49,680 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 8: You know, we made some compromises over there over that issue. 298 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 8: On the last days. Basically we're going to pull out 299 00:15:57,480 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 8: from the cities. And you know, we have no intention 300 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 8: to stay in Gaza. We don't want to be there, 301 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 8: and we will intend to pull out completely. But it 302 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 8: will happen gradually when we will see that actually Hamas 303 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 8: is giving away, it's a grip of the of the 304 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 8: Gatherans and allowing international. 305 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 7: Forces to take over. 306 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 8: We care about our security, that's the reason we moved 307 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 8: into Gaza. 308 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 3: You're the ambassador to the United Nations, where a number 309 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 3: of world leaders walked out when Natanya, who was speaking just. 310 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: A couple of weeks ago. 311 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 3: I'm just wondering how difficult you think it's going to 312 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 3: be the repair Israel's relationship with the rest of the world, 313 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 3: given some of the animosity that we've seen of late. 314 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 8: I think we will do it very fast. You know, 315 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 8: we have strong relationship with so many countries. Many of them, 316 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 8: you know, made mistakes. You know, we saw the difference 317 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 8: between politics and diplomacy. Some leaders like Macron and others 318 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 8: came to the UN for the show for the declarations 319 00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 8: President Trump and primarily to NATANIAO dealt with out call 320 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,160 Speaker 8: diplomacy and both resorts. So I'm sure that very fast 321 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 8: we will be able to work with those countries, continue 322 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 8: to contribute to developing countries. You know, we have a 323 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 8: lot to do, a lot to share. We paid the 324 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 8: heavy price, and I have to mention the price we paid. 325 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 8: More than one thousandthologists died since October seventh. 326 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 7: It's painful for us, but we are strong and we prevailed. 327 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 3: And I'm also wondering about whether there have been any 328 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:31,359 Speaker 3: discussions to restart talks to normalize relations between Israel and 329 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 3: some of your other Middle East neighbors, and thinking of 330 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, where that was clearly a discussion before this. 331 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 1: But others as well. 332 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:40,800 Speaker 3: Is that already on the table or is that a 333 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 3: long ways off? 334 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 7: We definitely expected to happen. 335 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 8: You know, first we have to stabilize the situation, to 336 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 8: make sure that actually Hamas is out of the game. 337 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,679 Speaker 7: You know, it's not a given. You know, we have 338 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 7: to make sure that out of the game. 339 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 8: And I think it will be the interest of Israel, 340 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,639 Speaker 8: the US, and many moderatest countries. 341 00:17:59,280 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 7: To move forward. 342 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 8: And it's important to mention that, you know, the Abraham 343 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 8: Coos countries sticks to the peace agreement we signed with them, 344 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 8: even though it was challenging and difficult for them during 345 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 8: the war, and we appreciate that. 346 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:16,720 Speaker 5: Are you concerned with a fragile relationship with Egypt? Earlier 347 00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 5: in September, we had President LCCI talk about the fact 348 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:22,960 Speaker 5: that Israel was a quote enemy, and we've seen a 349 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:26,800 Speaker 5: lot of acrimonious statements and individuals saying it's almost the 350 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:29,560 Speaker 5: closest these two countries have been to war since nineteen 351 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 5: seventy nine. 352 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 8: Now we have a stronger bond with the Egyptian government. 353 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,720 Speaker 8: You know, we know that during the war it wasn't 354 00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 8: the domestic politics some of those leaders and they had 355 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 8: to play the game. But we collaborate with Egyptians and 356 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:46,879 Speaker 8: I think now we should aim to expending peace. 357 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 7: That's our goal in the future. 358 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 5: Well, when it comes to Egypt and Cutter and United 359 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 5: Arab Emirates, which you already have a peace agreement with, 360 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 5: how do you see these countries working with Israel when 361 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 5: it comes to face two and three of rebuilding Gaza, Well. 362 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 7: I think it will be more than that. 363 00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 8: It will require the involvement of more countries and I 364 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 8: cannot name name it, but we are talking with the 365 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 8: major players that are willing to contribute to the efforts 366 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 8: for the reconstruction of Gada. And it's not only physical reconstruction. 367 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 8: We have to build the environment, a society that will 368 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:27,040 Speaker 8: not glorify terrorism. You know, for twenty years Hamas took 369 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,520 Speaker 8: the people of Gada hostage, and I think now Dava 370 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,359 Speaker 8: the option to build a better future and have to 371 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 8: be responsible about it and not allow radicals to take 372 00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 8: over Gada again. 373 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 9: Stay with us. 374 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 2: More plan Taxavidance coming up after this. 375 00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:55,399 Speaker 3: Turning back to the broader markets, the stocks trade near 376 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 3: all time highs. Richard Bernstein of RB Advisors, writing, markets 377 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 3: are ins some sort of speculative fervor. It is very 378 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,400 Speaker 3: obvious that investors are not risk averse. 379 00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 1: Richard joins us now is probably an understatement. 380 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,399 Speaker 3: Richard, I am curious whether you think it's gone too 381 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,119 Speaker 3: far or do you get on the train and follow momentum. 382 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:16,359 Speaker 10: So, Lisa, good morning, It's great to be with you. 383 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 10: I think the problem with being a momentum investor is 384 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,639 Speaker 10: never trying to figure out should we get on the train. 385 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 10: I mean, that's easy. You can see what's going on 386 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 10: the moment. The key to momentum investing is knowing when 387 00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:28,960 Speaker 10: to sell and when to get off right, Like who 388 00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 10: sold technology stocks at the peak of the bubble in 389 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:35,200 Speaker 10: March of two thousand. That would be the perfect momentum investor. 390 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,760 Speaker 10: And we know from history that people are very bad sellers. 391 00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 10: And so I think what the speculative environment really shows 392 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 10: is that the most important part of a portfolio right 393 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,399 Speaker 10: now is diversification. You may want to play momentum, but 394 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 10: don't overplay momentum. 395 00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 3: To just underscore what you're saying are you selling tech 396 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:54,440 Speaker 3: stocks right now? 397 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 10: So we have been famous or infamous for not overweighting them, 398 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,359 Speaker 10: So I don't think we have to sell anything because 399 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 10: we're not overweight. I think what we've done, though, what 400 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 10: we've done very effectively in our portfolios is find other 401 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:13,160 Speaker 10: areas that people are ignoring that are performing quite well, 402 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,679 Speaker 10: you know, whether that be non US quality, whether that 403 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 10: be dividends, whether that be small and MidCap industrials. I 404 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 10: think there's lots of different things that have been performing 405 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 10: well that are way off of people's radars. 406 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 5: But when it comes to historically how it's difficult for 407 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,679 Speaker 5: individuals to sell during all of this momentum, what are 408 00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 5: you looking at that would give you the signs that 409 00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 5: potentially this could be the meltdown? 410 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 10: So I think, you know, like, if you want to 411 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,440 Speaker 10: look for a risk, I think the risk to look 412 00:21:40,480 --> 00:21:44,920 Speaker 10: for right now is can the FED cut rates as 413 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,119 Speaker 10: much as the market is presently anticipating and as much 414 00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 10: as investors are presently anticipating. And the reason I say 415 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 10: that is that people forget that the FED is the 416 00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 10: central bank, and that is the keyword bank, and that 417 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 10: the way they impart monetary policy is through the banking system. 418 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:05,439 Speaker 10: So if the banking system is hesitant to lend, then 419 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 10: the FED cuts rates to try and make the cost 420 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 10: of funding cheaper for banks to encourage lending. If the 421 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 10: banking sector is lending too much, then the economy is overheating. 422 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 10: The FED will raise interest rates to try to increase 423 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 10: the cost of funding to slow down lending, which in 424 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,000 Speaker 10: turn will slow the economy. So the question we should 425 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 10: all be asking right now, and the question the FED 426 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 10: should be asking, is where is the hiccup in the 427 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:33,360 Speaker 10: financial sector that is constraining lending, which is constraining growth. 428 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 10: I think that's very hard to find right now. 429 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 5: Well, if there isn't one, then do you think the 430 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 5: FED should be cutting out all the rest of the year. 431 00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,359 Speaker 10: I I don't. Look, I can't tell you whether they 432 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 10: should or they shouldn't. It sound like JPL's calling me 433 00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 10: up and asking me, rich should I cut rates? So 434 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 10: what I think they should do maybe irrelevant. I think 435 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 10: what's important is for investors to think about that risk 436 00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,480 Speaker 10: and to think about what the comes could be. And 437 00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 10: what I was saying before, you know that you may 438 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 10: want to be better diversified than you were a month 439 00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:08,640 Speaker 10: ago or two months ago, or certainly six months ago. 440 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 10: And I think that's the way to think about what's 441 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 10: going on here. I think it's going to be more 442 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 10: difficult for the FED to cut rates than they think 443 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 10: right now, and certainly more difficult than the markets think 444 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:20,400 Speaker 10: right now. 445 00:23:20,440 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 1: You've been in the market a long time, Richard. 446 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 3: One thing that's been very interesting to me is how 447 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,879 Speaker 3: much the idea of diversification has shifted over the past 448 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,880 Speaker 3: five years. And I just wonder when you say diversify, 449 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 3: how much that has a different meaning today than say, 450 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 3: the sixty forty portfolio of your Oh. 451 00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 10: Absolutely, And I think part of that, Lisa, is the 452 00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 10: sixty percent portfolio. You know, your stock portfolio has turned 453 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 10: out to be like seven or ten or twenty stocks, 454 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 10: And so how much diversification do you even get just 455 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 10: by going sixty forty. I think that's right. I think 456 00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:56,040 Speaker 10: one has to look at should be looking at things 457 00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 10: like commodities, should be looking at various alternative investments, with 458 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 10: the reasoning that alts is not a real category, like 459 00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 10: it really likes to say alternatives. That's kind of silly, 460 00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,280 Speaker 10: that's like kind of saying I want to be invested. 461 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 10: There are different kinds of waults that have different goals 462 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 10: and different things like that, and I think it's worth 463 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,439 Speaker 10: looking at some of that. But I don't think, you know, 464 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 10: one should be saying there's only seven growth stories in 465 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,080 Speaker 10: the world. That seems silly to me. 466 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 1: Do you think that there is a story to play? 467 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,120 Speaker 3: And I keep thinking about what Almos Hokstein had to say, 468 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,399 Speaker 3: former White House senior advisor as well as a player 469 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 3: now in the space of infrastructure with energy and AI. 470 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 3: I just wonder how much the market is fully appreciated 471 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,919 Speaker 3: how much investment has to go into infrastructure and the 472 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,199 Speaker 3: real economy. Certainly that is a very hot area in 473 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 3: private markets. Do you see ways to get into that 474 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,639 Speaker 3: kind of idea in public markets or beyond that haven't 475 00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 3: fully been tapped. 476 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 10: So, Lisa, I think the best long term investment story 477 00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 10: is all about small and MidCap industrial company these and 478 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 10: the reindustrialization of the United States and the infrastructure that 479 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 10: has to go along with that. You know, one of 480 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 10: the things that people have talked a lot about is 481 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:11,040 Speaker 10: the price of electricity. And I don't know if you're aware, 482 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 10: but in the last five years we have had the 483 00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,520 Speaker 10: biggest run up in electricity prices in modern American history. 484 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 10: They're up nationwide by like eighty percent in the last 485 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,719 Speaker 10: five years. This has become for those of you who 486 00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 10: live in New York, New Jersey, you know, this has 487 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,080 Speaker 10: become a big issue in the New Jersey gogmunuatorial election. 488 00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,720 Speaker 10: They're talking about electricity prices. Well, you know, the thing 489 00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:34,959 Speaker 10: that people always forget is that bubbles misallocate capital and 490 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 10: in doing so, they are inflationary. And I think electricity 491 00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 10: prices are a classic one. Where we're building out data 492 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 10: centers before the infrastructure is built. That's like building factories 493 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 10: before the roads are built to move the stuff in 494 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 10: and out from the factory. It's silly to think that way. 495 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 10: And here's a good way to think about this misallocation 496 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,040 Speaker 10: of capital that's going on the economy that is so inflationary. 497 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 10: Imagine if all the capital that was going into cryptocurrencies 498 00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 10: in dead was invested in the US electric grid. Would 499 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 10: we be having electricity prices up by the most in 500 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 10: modern American history? I don't think so. 501 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,280 Speaker 3: So are you buying electric grid related stocks? Is that 502 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 3: sort of what you're saying, That's that's where it needs 503 00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:15,199 Speaker 3: to go. 504 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 10: Well, it has been that has been a sub theme 505 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,159 Speaker 10: of ours for like a decade. There's nothing new for 506 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 10: those of us at RBA. I mean it is, you know, 507 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:28,439 Speaker 10: the notion of small and MidCap industrial companies includes you know, 508 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 10: things like the grid, includes all this kind of you know, 509 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,640 Speaker 10: industrial infrastructure type stuff. So you know, you always say 510 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 10: to people, imagine if you go to a cocktail party 511 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,160 Speaker 10: and you didn't talk about in Nvidia, but you tried 512 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 10: to get people interested in carbon wire, I think you'd 513 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:44,600 Speaker 10: be the skunk at the cocktail party. 514 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 3: It would go back to the graduate plastics really enjoyed that, right, 515 00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 3: this copper wire. I am just curious going forward how 516 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 3: much signal you take from the likes of Delta and 517 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,560 Speaker 3: PEPSI earnings coming out better than expected. Delta in particular 518 00:26:57,640 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 3: talking about how travel is accelerated, not just the front 519 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 3: of the cabin but more broadly even in the economy sections. 520 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 3: How much do you take that as the economic data 521 00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,159 Speaker 3: to hint your heat on and sort of bet on, 522 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 3: even if you're diversified, the ongoing momentum in this economy. 523 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 10: Oh well, there's there's no question Lisa about is the 524 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:16,639 Speaker 10: economy healthy? 525 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 5: Right? 526 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,119 Speaker 10: I mean the Atlanta FEDS GDP now is tracking if 527 00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 10: I'm not mistaken, and roughly about three and a half 528 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 10: to four percent. I mean that's pretty good growth by 529 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,239 Speaker 10: US standards. I would say, so there should be no 530 00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 10: doubt that the economy is healthy. I mean, we could 531 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 10: argue about whether that's evenly divided among the economy and 532 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:36,880 Speaker 10: how that's you know, what parts of the economy are healthy, 533 00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,520 Speaker 10: but the general economy is actually quite healthy. And you know, 534 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 10: if you think about nominal growth, you think about the 535 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 10: three and a half to four percent real growth, plus 536 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 10: you think about we could argue, let's say three to 537 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 10: four percent inflation, depending on how you're measuring it. You know, 538 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 10: we're talking, you know, six to seven percent nominal growth. 539 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 10: I mean that's that's a pretty strong environment. And that's 540 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 10: one of the reasons why I don't think people I 541 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 10: think people are overestimating the ability to FED to come 542 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 10: rates going forward. Seven percent nominal growth, I mean, that's 543 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 10: pretty strong growth. 544 00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 2: Stay with us mulblindex. Savannah's coming up off to this. 545 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 3: US Treasury Secretary Scott Beston has finished interviewing eleven candidates 546 00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,399 Speaker 3: to replace FED chair J Powell. According to The Financial Times, 547 00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 3: candidates were grilled for up to two hours on their 548 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 3: views on interest rates and FED reforms, and perhaps we 549 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 3: will actually get a couple of the final candidates who 550 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,680 Speaker 3: can make their debut in discussions and in the race. 551 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,560 Speaker 3: Sticking with the Federal Reserve FED minutes showing caution to 552 00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,000 Speaker 3: ease driven by inflation concerns, Vincent Reinhardt B and Y 553 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:51,600 Speaker 3: Investments writing this. With the federal government shut down, less 554 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 3: data are available, which we think makes a data dependent 555 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:56,960 Speaker 3: FED more likely to ease. 556 00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 1: Vincent joins us, Now, wonderful to see you. It's been 557 00:28:59,040 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: too long. 558 00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 3: I want to start there this idea that actually the 559 00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:05,160 Speaker 3: meeting minutes showed what the dots showed, which is a 560 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 3: huge dispersion of opinions and a lot of people who 561 00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 3: were reluctant to ease again heading into the year end. 562 00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:15,720 Speaker 3: Why does the government shut down change your calculus? 563 00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 11: So what they did in September lays the tracks down 564 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:20,440 Speaker 11: for what they do in October. 565 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 9: And what did they do in September? 566 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 11: They eased, but they didn't strongly signal policy action, and 567 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:32,479 Speaker 11: they emphasized data dependence, and then they let everyone express 568 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:35,440 Speaker 11: their own view in the summary of economic projections. Makes 569 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 11: it really hard to send a coherent message when you 570 00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:42,960 Speaker 11: let everyone address their own view of the appropriate policy rate. 571 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 11: But what was important about that is they were leaning 572 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 11: toward policy ease and said they were data dependent. What 573 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 11: that means is the data has to stop them, i e. 574 00:29:57,440 --> 00:30:00,800 Speaker 11: Do you get evidence that disproves the case that it's 575 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 11: appropriate to ease. That's what reconciled the whole group to 576 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 11: the policy choice. Guess what, they don't have data that 577 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 11: can disprove the case. 578 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 3: We just got data about six minutes ago from Delta. 579 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: They came out with their earnings and. 580 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 3: The expectation that actually there's going to be a reacceleration 581 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 3: into the end of this year with consumer demand not 582 00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 3: just at the front of the cabin but throughout the 583 00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 3: entire cabin coming back. I just wonder, is that data 584 00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:27,320 Speaker 3: that actually should be relied on more given the fact 585 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 3: that we aren't getting official data and the data that have. 586 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 1: Been released by the United States have been. 587 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 11: Mixed, so they'll have to rely more on private data. 588 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 11: They're already scraping lots of big data sources. There's lots 589 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 11: of individual vendors, and don't forget it's the federal Reserve system, 590 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 11: which means that you have all that staff at Reserve 591 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:54,840 Speaker 11: Bank talking to business people all over the country in 592 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 11: their summarizing that in their page book. So they have 593 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 11: a lot of sources of information. They don't have an 594 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 11: officialture on it. But that has a couple consequences. One 595 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 11: is they're not flying blind. However, we are more in 596 00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 11: the dark about how they're flying because they're using private 597 00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 11: information that won't be conveyed to us. 598 00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 5: Okay, but you were at the FED for what almost 599 00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 5: a decade? 600 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,280 Speaker 9: It's actually a quarter century. 601 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:30,120 Speaker 5: But okay, well tell us what do you think they're 602 00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,680 Speaker 5: looking at? That's not the gold standard economic data that 603 00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 5: comes out of BLS. 604 00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:39,800 Speaker 11: So what I can tell here is you're filling the 605 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:43,479 Speaker 11: entire media block with the news that is out, and 606 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:49,400 Speaker 11: that's earnings reports, and so they are looking at whatever 607 00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,720 Speaker 11: they got, and what do they have. They have a 608 00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 11: lot more than they had previously, Lots of information from 609 00:31:56,160 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 11: credit card processors, lots of information from the big block 610 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:09,240 Speaker 11: stores that have up to the minute data on pricing 611 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:16,200 Speaker 11: and sales. They'll get credit reports, they'll get the anecdotal reports. 612 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 9: And what do we notice in COVID there was a. 613 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:26,040 Speaker 11: Whole blossoming of new indicators of high frequency demand. What 614 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 11: was that You apply a lot of resources with a 615 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:31,480 Speaker 11: lot of information. 616 00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 9: They're going to do their best and that's what they're doing. 617 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:33,840 Speaker 6: Now. 618 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 5: There's not a ton of debate about what the FED 619 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 5: will do the rest of the year. How are you 620 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 5: thinking about next year? Especially as Lisa was just mentioning, 621 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 5: the treasure Secretary just wrapped up his interviews for who's 622 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:43,120 Speaker 5: going to lead the FED? 623 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:45,959 Speaker 9: Completely different. This year is easy. 624 00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 11: This year is let's agree on a macro forecast. Let's 625 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,479 Speaker 11: think how has the FED previously acted, what is an 626 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:58,280 Speaker 11: appropriate policy rule? And then just plug your numbers in 627 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 11: and that will get you probably another half point of 628 00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,720 Speaker 11: easing in twenty twenty five. It's a closer call toward 629 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 11: the end of the year exactly, because maybe inflation will 630 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 11: come up, maybe the economy won't soften as much as 631 00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,920 Speaker 11: they're worried because they're easing. As for risk management, they're 632 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 11: buying insurance by the end of the year, they may 633 00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 11: not need it next year. Completely different. Why because the 634 00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:31,000 Speaker 11: Federal Reserve system is set up so that the leadership 635 00:33:31,080 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 11: of the FED turns over with the political process, So 636 00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 11: the administration will get new slots and the Federal Reserve system. 637 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:46,480 Speaker 11: The whole is set up to give the board pre 638 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:51,280 Speaker 11: eminent role in monetary policy, so the White House is 639 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 11: going to use that. 640 00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 3: As an economist watching this, does it worry you that 641 00:33:55,520 --> 00:33:58,320 Speaker 3: you've seen such a devaluation of the dollar and that 642 00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 3: you've seen gold increasingly take hold as a haven type 643 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:02,680 Speaker 3: of instrument. 644 00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 11: So I have a Bloomberg worksheet right on my desk, 645 00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 11: which is independence Watch. What do you look for if 646 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:16,520 Speaker 11: there were concerns about the future of central bank monitor 647 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,279 Speaker 11: policy making in the United States? You would look at 648 00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:23,120 Speaker 11: non dollar assets, so you would look at gold, You 649 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,760 Speaker 11: look at the price of some crypto. 650 00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:28,040 Speaker 9: You would also look. 651 00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,880 Speaker 11: As hard as you can at the whole term structure 652 00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:32,560 Speaker 11: of US interest rates. 653 00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 9: A little worrying that, yes. 654 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 11: The very little volatility in the bond market ten years 655 00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 11: has been flatlining, but the ten year ten year forward 656 00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 11: is drifted up, and some measures of inflation compensation have 657 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:53,760 Speaker 11: come up. Thus far, not a lot of warning flores 658 00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 11: flares and markets about worries about central bank independence, but 659 00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 11: we think that's going to come. 660 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:03,720 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 661 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,040 Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can Watch the show 662 00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:10,040 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to 663 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:13,920 Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 664 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,320 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the 665 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app.