WEBVTT - Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick  Talks Third Quarter Earnings

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Shanali Basik, and you're watching Bloomberg Open Interest, and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm standing by here at Morgan Stanley's headquarters in Times

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<v Speaker 2>Square alongside Morgan Stanley's CEO, Ted Pick. Of course, you

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<v Speaker 2>had your third Corner earnings report today, you're watching your

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<v Speaker 2>stock sore. You're having one of your best days ever. Really,

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<v Speaker 2>if you hold, it'll be at least your best intra

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<v Speaker 2>day in four years, and certainly your best day since

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<v Speaker 2>you became CEO. What do you think is the biggest

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<v Speaker 2>contributor to Morgan Stanley's performance at this point in time.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, first of all, Shanali, welcome to Morgan Stanley. Thank

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<v Speaker 3>you for wearing Morgan Stanley blue. For thrilled to have

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<v Speaker 3>you here. I think the story of our earnings is

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<v Speaker 3>one of consistency. Consistency on the top line this quarter

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<v Speaker 3>fifteen billion plus and now all three quarters fifteen billion plus.

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<v Speaker 3>And we've seen balance in the two major segments of

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<v Speaker 3>wealth managed and institutional securities, where the profitability is roughly equal.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got great.

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<v Speaker 3>Performance in the third segment, investment management two. And then importantly,

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<v Speaker 3>if you think about our sequential EPs two oh two

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<v Speaker 3>in the first quarter, one eighty two in the second quarter,

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<v Speaker 3>one eighty eight in the third quarter. So it's I

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<v Speaker 3>think it's a consistency story more than anything.

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<v Speaker 1>I say. The second thing is operating leverage.

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<v Speaker 3>We as you know, we reduced our operating leverage needs

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<v Speaker 3>by about three hundred basis points, improvements such that when

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<v Speaker 3>you see our returns on tangible they were seventeen and

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<v Speaker 3>a half percent for the quarter, eighteen percent for the

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<v Speaker 3>year to date.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's an operating leverage story too. And then of

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<v Speaker 1>course we're talking about growth.

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<v Speaker 3>We're talking about growth in wealth and investment management and

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<v Speaker 3>in the investment bank, not just off this quarter, but

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<v Speaker 3>in the years to come.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it's interesting because of course in wealth you're

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<v Speaker 2>already really the largest, of course, but when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to investment banking, I remember a year ago what you

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<v Speaker 2>told me was that equities, fixed income, and across investment

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<v Speaker 2>bank thanking, you're focus on being number one. Now, notwithstanding

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<v Speaker 2>today's report, you still have a ways to go with

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<v Speaker 2>the other two investment banks when it comes to revenue.

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<v Speaker 2>How are you closing that gap?

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's a great question in the sense that

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<v Speaker 3>we want to generate real returns and being in front

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<v Speaker 3>of clients in the investment bank, and you see the

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<v Speaker 3>share gains. You see that we've done three billion in

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<v Speaker 3>equities for the last couple quarters. By the way, we

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<v Speaker 3>did that three billion with lower var so the three

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<v Speaker 3>billion versus last year's number in the mid twos and

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<v Speaker 3>equities was done with roughly the same var So there's

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<v Speaker 3>an element of the composition of that revenue base is about.

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<v Speaker 1>Getting closer to clients. You could feel those.

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<v Speaker 3>Metrics, and I think the fact that we were able

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<v Speaker 3>to navigate what happened in Tokyo, what happened more recently

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<v Speaker 3>in China without a ton of volatility in the books,

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<v Speaker 3>able to monetize that with clients in prime brokerage and cash,

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<v Speaker 3>equities and derivatives is important. And then if you look

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<v Speaker 3>at our fixed income business, it's been stable, really a

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<v Speaker 3>stable business which has underlying volatility just it's part of

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<v Speaker 3>what farm exchange and rates and credit are.

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<v Speaker 1>But they've been stable.

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<v Speaker 3>And I feel like in both those businesses there's an

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<v Speaker 3>element of the leaders pulling away from the pack, just

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<v Speaker 3>because it costs a lot to run those businesses every year.

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<v Speaker 3>If you're going to be connected with the clients. You

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<v Speaker 3>need to be connected across the entire product suite. But

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<v Speaker 3>also shealities, you know, you have to be connected around

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<v Speaker 3>the world. And so we've been spending time in Tokyo,

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<v Speaker 3>We've been spending time on the content. We've been spending

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<v Speaker 3>time in India making sure that we are connected with clients,

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<v Speaker 3>and of course in Hong Kong we had an important quarter.

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<v Speaker 3>So I feel good about the global business. I feel

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<v Speaker 3>that we now can really lay claim to being one

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<v Speaker 3>of several global investment banks.

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<v Speaker 1>You tell me how many you think, but that.

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<v Speaker 3>That business can generate real operating leverage and when the

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<v Speaker 3>cycle demands it, like it is now where things are

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<v Speaker 3>beginning to happen.

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<v Speaker 1>That we can lean it.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, it's interesting value at risk for those of

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<v Speaker 2>you at home.

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<v Speaker 1>That is what bar is and it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 2>You were watching markets near record highs forty six record

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<v Speaker 2>highs this year already you're watching hedge funds with record

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<v Speaker 2>amounts of leverage. Do you worry at all about where

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<v Speaker 2>we stand today given what it's taken to get here.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, we certainly are always paying attention to where there's

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<v Speaker 3>leverage in the system because we lend and we are

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<v Speaker 3>a market participants, so we're keeping an eye on all

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<v Speaker 3>of our counterparties, our clients constantly looking at terms.

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<v Speaker 1>Of trade where we are in the capital structure.

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<v Speaker 3>I do think leverage, though, has some distinction within the

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<v Speaker 3>asset classes. So for example, our prime brokerage business is

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<v Speaker 3>at highs and some of the traditional long short investors,

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<v Speaker 3>as you say, are operating at fully on a fully

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<v Speaker 3>invested basis in many cases.

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<v Speaker 1>But if you look at other segments.

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<v Speaker 3>Like the multistrats or the quants, they're actually operating it.

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<v Speaker 3>Leverage is roughly close to the long term average, So

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<v Speaker 3>there is leverage capacity. But I do take your point

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<v Speaker 3>that it is very important for us to continue to

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<v Speaker 3>pay attention to where.

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<v Speaker 1>There may be leveraging the system.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, leverage is more expensive given we have higher rates,

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<v Speaker 3>and the reality is we're all looking to do the

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<v Speaker 3>right combination of high margin business with clients, which means

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<v Speaker 3>that you have to be thinking about clients durably over decades,

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<v Speaker 3>which clients are going to be in the businesses you care.

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<v Speaker 3>Where might we be working with a client across our

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<v Speaker 3>firm to manage those assets, source assets, structure finance. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's not just the classic investment banking play. It's also

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<v Speaker 3>their interaction with us in the wealth management context, their

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<v Speaker 3>interaction with us in the investment management context. And you've

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<v Speaker 3>heard s youonality ME talk about the integrative firm. That's

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<v Speaker 3>where we think it's powerful, not just because there's interconnectivity,

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<v Speaker 3>but there's also sort of ongoing diligence around who we're

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<v Speaker 3>interacting with at what level, how do they think about

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<v Speaker 3>their strategy and culture.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, I also want to move away from trading it

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<v Speaker 2>over to M and A and IPOs because this morning

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<v Speaker 2>you told analysts that you are bullish. When do M

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<v Speaker 2>and A big deals and IPOs in large form come

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<v Speaker 2>back and how large will they be.

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<v Speaker 1>When they do.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you hit on it. They're going to be larger.

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<v Speaker 3>They're going to be larger because it is a process

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<v Speaker 3>to go public under Starbucks and for smaller companies that

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<v Speaker 3>may be orphaned without the proper research. If they have

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<v Speaker 3>a great growth story, why can't they go public? We're

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<v Speaker 3>going to continue to be the underwriter to exciting young

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<v Speaker 3>companies that only have a small number of years operating experience.

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<v Speaker 1>You can get through the entire thirty three and thirty four.

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<v Speaker 3>Act process of going public and grow and then eventually

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<v Speaker 3>either become acquiring vehicles or they themselves get bought out.

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<v Speaker 1>That will continue. But what is more likely is you know, and.

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<v Speaker 3>You spend a lot of time talking about there is

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<v Speaker 3>a trillion three of dry powder held by financial sponsors.

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<v Speaker 1>There is at least three trillion in the ground.

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<v Speaker 3>Ten thousand portfolio companies, and for the first time in

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<v Speaker 3>almost fifteen years, the rate of deployment is outpacing the

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<v Speaker 3>rate of raising.

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<v Speaker 1>So why is that important, as we both.

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<v Speaker 3>Know, because that equation means they need those private equity

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<v Speaker 3>sponsors need to monetize.

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<v Speaker 1>How are they going to monetize?

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<v Speaker 3>They could sell, they could sell to other sponsors, they

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<v Speaker 3>could try to find a deal with a strategic or

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<v Speaker 3>they could go public. So I think the beauty of

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<v Speaker 3>going public as larger companies is coming back.

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<v Speaker 1>But I also think it's going to be a global phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 3>I think you see equitization rates really starting to increase

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<v Speaker 3>in places like Japan they've been so quiet for the

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<v Speaker 3>better part of thirty five years, where we have a

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<v Speaker 3>leading business on the continent, in places like Italy.

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<v Speaker 1>You'll see it in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's a global business, probably smaller unit size the

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<v Speaker 3>larger companies that need the full suite of our products.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we hear over and over at Bloomberg that

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<v Speaker 2>people are waiting till the election. They're waiting till the election,

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<v Speaker 2>and a lot of investors are guiding to volatility headed

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<v Speaker 2>around the elections. How are you preparing for that and

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<v Speaker 2>how are you here from clients on how chopping things

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<v Speaker 2>can get.

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<v Speaker 3>We stay close to clients as you would expect, because

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<v Speaker 3>it's a coin flipped on any of the red blue, blue,

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<v Speaker 3>red combinations. They're nimble and staying pretty liquid around what

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<v Speaker 3>might happen. The reality though, is not only do we

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<v Speaker 3>not know what the combination is going to be, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't know what the policy reaction function is actually going

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<v Speaker 3>to be off of what has been said. And for

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<v Speaker 3>that reason, I think you have a number of investors

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<v Speaker 3>that are actually just sort of continuing to plow forward

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<v Speaker 3>on the view that the economy is in pretty pretty

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<v Speaker 3>good shape and the consumers and corporates are in great shape,

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<v Speaker 3>so that when there is an election outcome, once there's

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<v Speaker 3>a sense for whether new policy will actually get.

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<v Speaker 1>Affected, then they.

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<v Speaker 3>Can have a reaction and obviously that also then brings

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<v Speaker 3>into question what monetary.

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<v Speaker 1>Policy will look like. I think that our job is.

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<v Speaker 3>Just to stay close to clients and to make sure

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<v Speaker 3>our infrastructure is fit for purpose. So we do run

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<v Speaker 3>tabletops to make sure that not just that we can

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<v Speaker 3>help offer solutions to clients finale, but also that we

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<v Speaker 3>you know, we have our act together internally.

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<v Speaker 2>Even after the election. Is there a sense of which

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<v Speaker 2>party at this juncture is better for the stock market?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have a view? No? I don't.

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<v Speaker 3>I really don't, because I don't know that we can

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<v Speaker 3>imagine what the combinations will be, what the mandate will be,

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<v Speaker 3>and what the policy actual will actually be coming off

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<v Speaker 3>of what's been said during the campaigns. What I do

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<v Speaker 3>know is that the economy continues to be in pretty

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<v Speaker 3>good shape and that gives any new administration some tailwinds.

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<v Speaker 3>But of course they need to also continue to imagine

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<v Speaker 3>where we are in the election cycle, and they also

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<v Speaker 3>have to pay attention to deficits and national debt and

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<v Speaker 3>all the things you've been talking about.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, there's the election itself, the vote, and then

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<v Speaker 2>there's the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>Till the vote is certified.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you expect uncertainty to clear up quickly or do

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<v Speaker 2>you think it will last for a while.

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<v Speaker 3>I know what I'm hoping for is what we will

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<v Speaker 3>hope for, which is that the election is a certain outcome,

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<v Speaker 3>and then we just go about getting a sense of

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<v Speaker 3>what policy is. If there's uncertainty, that could go on

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<v Speaker 3>for a bit of time, but markets tend to be

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<v Speaker 3>reasonably sanguine about that kind of uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>For a number of days. There could be some jittery behavior,

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<v Speaker 1>but assuming we know where we're going, the markets should

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<v Speaker 1>align in due course. You know.

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<v Speaker 2>Another uncertainty is capital rules around the big banks. The

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<v Speaker 2>US is mulling revised capital rules with lower capital requirements

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<v Speaker 2>that initially put forward. How do you feel about the

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<v Speaker 2>direction of travel.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like the direction of travel has been constructive.

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<v Speaker 3>We are carrying a capital buffer, as you know, about

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<v Speaker 3>one hundred and sixty basse points. We continue to carry

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of buffer because it's an uncertainty.

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<v Speaker 1>It affects Morgan Stanley.

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, if I think about the three pillars

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<v Speaker 3>of things that I care abouttionality at this place, I

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<v Speaker 3>care about a strategy which is to raise managink capital

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<v Speaker 3>for individuals and institutions. I care about our culture, which

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<v Speaker 3>is one of rigor and humility and partnership, and I

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<v Speaker 3>care about financial strength, capital liquidity. So whatever the we'll

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<v Speaker 3>call it, visisitudes of the discussion going into the election.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's it's probably the case that we're not

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<v Speaker 3>going to have resolution on.

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<v Speaker 1>This until after the election.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think the industry has made its case on

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<v Speaker 3>where some real modifications should be made, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>the regulator is largely listening and we'll have to see

0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:36.440
<v Speaker 3>how that plays out coming out of the election.

0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:38.960
<v Speaker 2>Ted, do you think if Trump were to win the election,

0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:41.640
<v Speaker 2>that these capital rules are revised almost entirely.

0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.000
<v Speaker 3>No way of knowing, No way of knowing, because I

0:11:45.000 --> 0:11:48.760
<v Speaker 3>think in fairness, there is a desire to put the

0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.959
<v Speaker 3>puck on the ice, and it may be in everyone's interest,

0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 3>whatever the administrative combination, to get something done.

0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.719
<v Speaker 1>And if the industry feels.

0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:01.280
<v Speaker 3>It's reasonable, and it's reasonable for mainstream and for our

0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:02.240
<v Speaker 3>client base, there.

0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:03.280
<v Speaker 1>Will be an effort to go forth.

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:06.040
<v Speaker 3>On the other hand, if it continues to be a

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<v Speaker 3>tough one, we're going to have to continue to talk.

0:12:08.240 --> 0:12:10.439
<v Speaker 2>You know, one more question for you before I let

0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.000
<v Speaker 2>you go today. I was joking it's like the comeback

0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:16.440
<v Speaker 2>of the Morgans. Your stock commands a higher price to

0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:20.560
<v Speaker 2>book ratio than even JP Morgans does today. Why do

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:21.160
<v Speaker 2>you think that is?

0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:25.599
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think it's because we've got we've got a

0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.800
<v Speaker 3>durable business model and we know we do you know,

0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:34.880
<v Speaker 3>we raise, manage, an allocate capital for clients, individuals and institutions.

0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:38.880
<v Speaker 3>And that puts us in two spaces that are secular

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:43.040
<v Speaker 3>growers and they're global growers. The classic wealth management business

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:47.359
<v Speaker 3>with fifteen thousand financial advisors, our fantastic e trade platform,

0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:51.359
<v Speaker 3>our growing workspace, our investment management solution with its parametric

0:12:51.480 --> 0:12:55.800
<v Speaker 3>attacks customization product part of a growing investment management space,

0:12:55.800 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 3>as you know, that is a secular grower for alts.

0:12:58.360 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 1>And then the investment bank, where there's a.

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<v Speaker 2>Ton of gross we have to leave it there at

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<v Speaker 2>Congress on the report today of Corset is Ted Pick.

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<v Speaker 2>He is the CEO of Morgan Stanley.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks you know, ling