WEBVTT - Coronavirus Update, Peloton’s $1,000 Value Bike

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can

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<v Speaker 1>also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, our tough stories on

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<v Speaker 1>the virus, you've been hearing them throughout the day here

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg. Those anti malaria drugs that President trub has

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<v Speaker 1>touted to fight COVID nint well, they're linked to an

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<v Speaker 1>increase of death and heart ailments. Meantime, you've got Oxford

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<v Speaker 1>and Astra Zeneca they're starting to recruit subjects for advanced

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<v Speaker 1>human studies of one of the fastest moving experimental vaccines.

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<v Speaker 1>And then Dr fauci Uh He said he was quote

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<v Speaker 1>cautiously optimistic about Murderner's vaccine boosting that stock once again.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get an update, let's see what you really

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<v Speaker 1>need to walk away with before we get into the

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<v Speaker 1>holiday weekend. Dr Ian LUs Bader is Clinical Associate Professor

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<v Speaker 1>Medicine at n Y you Land Going Medical Center, joining

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<v Speaker 1>us once again on the phone from New york Ian.

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<v Speaker 1>Good to have you back again. How was your week?

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you Carol and Jason. Hope you guys are doing well. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's been overall a good week. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>we're all transitioning, trying to transition back to whatever a

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<v Speaker 1>more normal environment is. Certainly we're seeing a fewer cases

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<v Speaker 1>in the hospital with UH with a cute UH COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen UH. Still a number of patients who are in

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital, and certainly we're still touched by death. Yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>a colleague of mine who's a cardiologist died uh. Not

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<v Speaker 1>very old at seventy and a very vital, great teacher.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think we're all touched one way or another

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<v Speaker 1>by friends or family or people that we know. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's still, you know, a very serious disease. Fortunately, the

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<v Speaker 1>numbers here or going down there's some data perhaps in

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<v Speaker 1>South America that the number of cases are going up,

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<v Speaker 1>which is a concern, and we're trying to transition back

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<v Speaker 1>to normal patient flow. What's interesting is a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the floors that were previously medical or surgical most of

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<v Speaker 1>the hospital converted to COVID patients. Those patients, many of

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<v Speaker 1>them fortunately have been discharged UH and now sort of

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<v Speaker 1>awaiting the return of regular patients. And what's interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>see is that volume is not a hundred percent. So

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<v Speaker 1>it seems that many patients with you know, abdominal pain,

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<v Speaker 1>chest pain, elective surgery needs are slow to return to

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<v Speaker 1>the regular healthcare system, which which may reflect either you know,

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<v Speaker 1>fears about getting care, maybe fears about getting COVID. But

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<v Speaker 1>certainly I think the medical system is eddie to return

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<v Speaker 1>to UH, you know, dealing with patients who might have

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<v Speaker 1>postponed some of their care and our anxious to have

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<v Speaker 1>those patients back. So Ian talked to us about New

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<v Speaker 1>York City at this point. You know, we heard from

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<v Speaker 1>Governor Cuomo that by next week, essentially every region of

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<v Speaker 1>this state of New York State will be in the

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<v Speaker 1>phases that early phases and and and further along in

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<v Speaker 1>reopening safe for New York City. We know about the density,

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<v Speaker 1>we know about the fact that this was the epicenter

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<v Speaker 1>really in the entire United States. Help us understand what

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<v Speaker 1>needs to happen, because my understanding is is that part

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<v Speaker 1>of it is available beds and and basically hospital capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>That is one threshold that the city has yet to meet.

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<v Speaker 1>Help us understand that, well. I think it's very hard

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<v Speaker 1>to turn on hospital availability like a light switch. When

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<v Speaker 1>you start filling up your hospital with you know, elective

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<v Speaker 1>surgery and uh other surgical procedures or cardiac cases and

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<v Speaker 1>so forth. If there's a sudden surgeon patients, you it's

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<v Speaker 1>very hard to quickly get those patients out. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>always better to anticipate what your needs may be, whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's ventilators or I c U space. But it does

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<v Speaker 1>seem at this time whether or not social distancing and

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<v Speaker 1>and mitigation measures have helped, or whether it's the better weather,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't really know. But the number of new cases

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<v Speaker 1>does seem to be uh reducing. So that's certainly very

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<v Speaker 1>uh you know, encouraging, and I think we have to

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<v Speaker 1>address our regular patients and other patients, you know, to

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<v Speaker 1>deal to deal with those issues. And I think this

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<v Speaker 1>is really unknown, it's a new virus, and how people

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<v Speaker 1>will get back, how safe it will be uh in

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<v Speaker 1>businesses and offices. I certainly I think people will begin

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<v Speaker 1>to come back in a slower fashion. People who can

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<v Speaker 1>work from home probably will still be encouraged to work

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<v Speaker 1>them home. But I think there's a lot of benefit

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<v Speaker 1>to people getting back to normal psychologically. Um, there may

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<v Speaker 1>be some people who still want to work from home,

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<v Speaker 1>may be more efficient. There's some people who say they're

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<v Speaker 1>working longer hours, you know, from eight am to six pm,

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<v Speaker 1>and and actually even being more productive. Yeah. I think

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<v Speaker 1>just now I've had some of those conversations that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think. I think I went into this wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>quite sure how it was going to work. And I

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<v Speaker 1>feel probably more productive on a lot of different levels. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's kind of interesting this experience. UM. What did

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<v Speaker 1>you make of the president taking hydrochloroquin so that that

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<v Speaker 1>has been asked to me by a number of patients

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<v Speaker 1>and UH and colleagues and and and friends. And I think, um,

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<v Speaker 1>because we do not have any medication really that we

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<v Speaker 1>know of to reduce the uh say, incidents of of

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<v Speaker 1>COVID nineteen or the symptoms. We're very lucky that of

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<v Speaker 1>patients approximately more or less seem to do fairly well

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<v Speaker 1>and a smaller percent again for unclear reasons. We know

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<v Speaker 1>some risk factors. Again we talked about age and weight

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<v Speaker 1>and diabetes and hypertension due to deteriorate UH. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>really have great medications to to bend that curve. We

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<v Speaker 1>certainly know hydroxy chloroquine um is very useful for rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, malaria, prophylaxis.

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<v Speaker 1>We also know from many studies it's not very helpful

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<v Speaker 1>at all once you're hospitalized and use sort of late

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<v Speaker 1>in the disease or when patients are very sick. There

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<v Speaker 1>are a number of studies going on now to see

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<v Speaker 1>in a controlled way, and we don't really have good

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<v Speaker 1>randomized control studies, so so those are starting now. But

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of anecdotal evidence, small case studies and

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<v Speaker 1>individual reports where it does seem to reduce the viral replication,

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<v Speaker 1>does seem to reduce the severity um of the disease,

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<v Speaker 1>or maybe actually prevents some people from getting the disease,

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<v Speaker 1>so they're used early on. It right to be very helpful,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think in the White House where I have

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<v Speaker 1>the best guest, thirty or forty people there habit and

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<v Speaker 1>hang on a second, because we've just got to take

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<v Speaker 1>a break and we'll come back. We're catching up with

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<v Speaker 1>our pal. Dr Ian les Bader, clinical Associate Professor of

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<v Speaker 1>Medicine at n y U s Lango Medical Center, joinings

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City, and when we

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<v Speaker 1>left off, we were talking about some of the treatments

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<v Speaker 1>that are out there. So Ian, I want to ask you,

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<v Speaker 1>since testing and tracing are going to be key to reopening,

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<v Speaker 1>where are we on testing? What are we learning so far? Um,

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<v Speaker 1>both in sort of broad strokes but also sort of

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<v Speaker 1>specifically what have you seen here in New York h

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<v Speaker 1>great questions. So in terms of testing, every one UH,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they've had mild or no symptoms or severe symptoms,

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<v Speaker 1>wants antibody testing and those are generally pretty reliable. We're

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<v Speaker 1>using some of the national labs um for a blood

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<v Speaker 1>draw and I g G levels, and it's interesting to

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<v Speaker 1>me that there are some people who were very sick

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<v Speaker 1>and they have antibody positive. That's great, not all unexpected.

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<v Speaker 1>You've got some people who are very mild or no

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<v Speaker 1>known exposure and they're positive. But we're also seeing and

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<v Speaker 1>I would say the majority of patients who are curious

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<v Speaker 1>negative blood tests for antibodies, and you know, presumably that

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<v Speaker 1>means those people definitely should be vaccinated when that is

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<v Speaker 1>available and hopefully soon. In terms of acute patients who

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<v Speaker 1>are ill, uh, we are now able to get those

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<v Speaker 1>nasal swabs. Some people go to local urgent care where

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<v Speaker 1>they may get nasal swabs or the saliva test. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>Many go to urgent care to and get antibody tests.

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<v Speaker 1>Remember that takes about ford to six weeks after symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>for the antibody tests to be positive. But it seems

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of curiosity and when we get all

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<v Speaker 1>that data, that will give us a denominator of how

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<v Speaker 1>many people had exposure and really what the death rate

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<v Speaker 1>is when those final numbers come through. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the day, because we have no specific treatment,

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<v Speaker 1>even if someone is COVID swab positive, UM, we really

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<v Speaker 1>don't treat them. And that's sort of hearkens back to

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<v Speaker 1>what we were talking about before with President Trump taking

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<v Speaker 1>hydroxy chloroquine that may either prevent more severe disease or

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<v Speaker 1>may prevent getting the disease or shortened symptoms. Other things,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, vitamin D, some zinc, vitamin C, all of

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<v Speaker 1>those may play a role. I urged patients to talk

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<v Speaker 1>to their doctor about it. If you're vitamin D deficient,

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<v Speaker 1>probably good to take a supplement. The hydroxy chloroquine does

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<v Speaker 1>have risks. People really should get an e KG baseline.

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<v Speaker 1>We've used it for years successfully in amator arthritis and lupus,

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<v Speaker 1>and patients do very well on that. Uh. If I

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<v Speaker 1>was the president and surrounded by thirty or forty people,

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<v Speaker 1>including my valet with I wish I had a l A,

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<v Speaker 1>but and I had a l A who was sick um,

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<v Speaker 1>I would definitely say, hey, maybe I should take hydroxy clorklin.

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<v Speaker 1>There is some data. I'm not sure that's appropriate for

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<v Speaker 1>everyone to do. And I think that's sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>issue that your role model and you sort of everyone

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<v Speaker 1>then says, hey, if he's taking it, should I write

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<v Speaker 1>that we're really waiting for for data on that. So will.

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<v Speaker 1>I love that you said, if if you know maybe

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<v Speaker 1>what the president is thinking, that you know where I

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<v Speaker 1>am and who I'm surrounded with, maybe it makes sense

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<v Speaker 1>for me to take it and so I'm going to

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<v Speaker 1>ask my doctor, if you were his doctor, knowing his age,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know some of his medical health conditions and um,

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<v Speaker 1>who he is, would you suggest he do it? That's

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<v Speaker 1>that's really a great question. There is no question he's

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<v Speaker 1>in a high risk group. Um, even though he is

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<v Speaker 1>appears overall healthy. We don't know. I don't know his

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<v Speaker 1>e KG results, but if you're overweight, that is a

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<v Speaker 1>significant risk factor, and a certainly age and male sex

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<v Speaker 1>as a risk factor. So he definitely is high risk.

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<v Speaker 1>He's surrounded by a very close UH workers who who

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<v Speaker 1>have tested positive. I don't think it was really a

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<v Speaker 1>crazy idea to take it. The next question is, okay, well,

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<v Speaker 1>how long do you take it? What's the dose you take?

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<v Speaker 1>We don't really have that information. Studies are going on,

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<v Speaker 1>but you're really guessing when you're when you're dosing it

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<v Speaker 1>as to what the right doses and how long to

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<v Speaker 1>keep someone on it. But in principle it is not

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<v Speaker 1>a crazy idea. All right, Well, we hope you have

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<v Speaker 1>a triffic weekend. Dr lesbader Ian Les Beder, Clinical Associate

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<v Speaker 1>Professor of Medicine, ny US Langown Medical Center, And I

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<v Speaker 1>will say just to give him a shout out. He

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<v Speaker 1>has been such a consistent voice for us in all

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<v Speaker 1>of this. I really look forward to our conversations. I

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<v Speaker 1>feel like I come out the other side smarter and

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<v Speaker 1>and really able to talk to people because we're all

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<v Speaker 1>talking about this all the time, Carol, and being able

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<v Speaker 1>to convey some information not just to our listeners, but

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<v Speaker 1>even in my personal life. Very grateful to the the infide. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I have to say he's often given us a

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<v Speaker 1>heads up on things that all of a sudden, like

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<v Speaker 1>in a week or in a few days, are in

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's headlines and in everybody's uh conversations. But I really

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<v Speaker 1>do feel like he's been ahead of the curve, so

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<v Speaker 1>really appreciate it. Um Dr Ian lust Later LUs Baider,

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<v Speaker 1>Clinical Associate Professor Medicine at Lanto Medical Center. On the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from New York City. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This story Jason is among the most red on the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Today. You and I were both He's rubbing his

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<v Speaker 1>hands together because we're excited to talk to Ashley Vance.

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<v Speaker 1>It is in the magazine's double issue. It's online. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a story that came out of a phone call from

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<v Speaker 1>Elon Musk to Bloomberg Business Week reporter and New York

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<v Speaker 1>Times bestselling author Ashley Vats, who, of course, as you know,

0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.880
<v Speaker 1>wrote a biography of Musk entitled Elon Musk, Slow, SpaceX

0:13:01.160 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 1>and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, actually also the

0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:05.760
<v Speaker 1>host of Hello World. He joins us on the phone

0:13:05.760 --> 0:13:12.319
<v Speaker 1>from Palo Alto, California. So must just called you up. Yeah,

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.000
<v Speaker 1>we we uh, you know, we never since my book

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:20.040
<v Speaker 1>came out, we've had a bit of unusual relationship, sometimes talking,

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.680
<v Speaker 1>sometimes not, and it had been a while since we

0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:27.320
<v Speaker 1>had any kind of really meaningful conversation. But you know,

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.839
<v Speaker 1>there's this amazing moment that's coming up next week with

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.280
<v Speaker 1>SpaceX China launch after us to the Space station. And

0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 1>I got a call from Elan on Sunday and Ashley,

0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 1>you do such a beautiful job setting it up, and

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.959
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to take I'm not gonna I was

0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:45.720
<v Speaker 1>gonna read some of your best lines. I'm not gonna

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 1>read it out loud because people just have to go

0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 1>read it and have the whole experience that we got

0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:52.000
<v Speaker 1>to have. Of of like sitting and reading and just

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of being enveloped in this world. But the main

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.600
<v Speaker 1>point that you make at the top is that this

0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:04.200
<v Speaker 1>should be a very straightforward, like declare victory, patriotic moment,

0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, and you talk about like an immigrant launching

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 1>people into space. This is what this whole country has

0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>has been about. And yet it is so much more complicated,

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 1>in part because Elon Musk himself is complicated. Help us

0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.640
<v Speaker 1>understand why and what you really took from this conversation. See,

0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 1>and I just wanted to know, did you like, wait, Ellen,

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:26.720
<v Speaker 1>can I just get back to you. I'm hope busy

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>right now now. I'm just kidding answer answer Jason's question.

0:14:30.880 --> 0:14:33.040
<v Speaker 1>It is funny because you know, I was already working

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:36.160
<v Speaker 1>on an essay tied to this launch, because it is

0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 1>it is this historic moment. You know, we've been we've

0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:41.800
<v Speaker 1>been relying on Russian rockets for for about ten years

0:14:41.840 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 1>to get humans into space, and obviously it's such a

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:48.120
<v Speaker 1>good ton with the virus that I wanted to write

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.280
<v Speaker 1>something about. Look, you know, humans can do a lot

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:53.280
<v Speaker 1>when they really put their mind to it. We all

0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 1>work together Space Action, NASA, the government and the private

0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 1>sector doing something good and and you want had already

0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.720
<v Speaker 1>started to complicate my piece because you know, for the

0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:07.520
<v Speaker 1>last um two or three weeks, he's been especially flamboyant

0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:11.360
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter. Um, he's pretty happily in the COVID ninety

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 1>and Truther camp. Uh. You know, he's been fighting to

0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 1>open his factories when people have been saying maybe that's

0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:20.080
<v Speaker 1>not the safest thing to do, and so so yeah,

0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:23.760
<v Speaker 1>just it's not really complex. I mean, here's this, um

0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:27.480
<v Speaker 1>super it should be just a super positive thing for

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.720
<v Speaker 1>humanity at a time when when humanity as a whole

0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.360
<v Speaker 1>is uh is phasing questions and I think you know,

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.800
<v Speaker 1>the US obviously is as well. Well all right, I

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 1>know Jason said he wasn't going to read a line,

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 1>but I am, and I agree everybody has to read this.

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.600
<v Speaker 1>But you're right, so the moment of achievement is complicated,

0:15:43.760 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of like the right stuff meets the electrical maid

0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:50.560
<v Speaker 1>acid test or the idea that anything is possible is

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.120
<v Speaker 1>as unnerving as it is encouraging. Mind mail Jason Kelly, Um,

0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 1>it's such a great line, but but it is significant.

0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:59.080
<v Speaker 1>My dad was very involved in the space race, UM

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 1>back in the you know, fifties, sixties seventies. Um, so

0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:07.240
<v Speaker 1>tell us about this moment and really, you know Elon Musk,

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, really does stand at this moment of doing

0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:14.080
<v Speaker 1>something incredible for our country. Yet at the same time,

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:17.800
<v Speaker 1>right he kind of complicates everything he does. Yeah, I mean,

0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 1>it's sort of it speaks to everything about Ellen. I think,

0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, SpaceX, of all his businesses, is probably the

0:16:24.960 --> 0:16:29.760
<v Speaker 1>most improbable, and yet it is ended up being the

0:16:29.800 --> 0:16:35.080
<v Speaker 1>most consistent, reliable, and high achieving of all his companies.

0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>So much though that NASA, which is this very traditional

0:16:39.360 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 1>um risk averse organization, is willing to put human lives

0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:46.680
<v Speaker 1>on top of the the SpaceX rocket. You know, if you're

0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:48.920
<v Speaker 1>if you're not a space nerd, it's it's kind of

0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:53.120
<v Speaker 1>hard maybe to put what an unlikely achievement this is

0:16:53.200 --> 0:16:56.560
<v Speaker 1>and and how hard it was to do it. Um,

0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:01.320
<v Speaker 1>I think then you just have the wrapper of law

0:17:01.760 --> 0:17:03.840
<v Speaker 1>all around is you know, there was a day when

0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:06.199
<v Speaker 1>he was firing off a ton of his tweets when

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.240
<v Speaker 1>he was gonna sell off his possessions that we have

0:17:09.359 --> 0:17:12.720
<v Speaker 1>to open the factors and like, at that very same moment,

0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.679
<v Speaker 1>Master was having a press conference with Gwinn Shotwell, the

0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.199
<v Speaker 1>president of SpaceX talking about the launch, and and so

0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:23.400
<v Speaker 1>you just have you have these such extreme things where um,

0:17:23.440 --> 0:17:26.879
<v Speaker 1>this is not your traditional NASA rocket lodgers just out

0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:31.119
<v Speaker 1>there giving a vision of public safety and you and

0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:35.119
<v Speaker 1>we beings every and so we'd be remiss if we

0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>didn't ask you about some other sort of musky and things,

0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:40.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, not the least of which is Tesla because

0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:43.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, despite everything, I mean you go back and

0:17:43.760 --> 0:17:45.639
<v Speaker 1>and read sort of the headlines or a timeline over

0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:47.560
<v Speaker 1>the past couple of years. You know, this is a

0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:50.359
<v Speaker 1>company that's had lovers and haters, and it feels like

0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:52.679
<v Speaker 1>most people are sort of binary on this, both from

0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:56.159
<v Speaker 1>an investor perspective and even from a personal perspective. And

0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:58.439
<v Speaker 1>you have a great line where you talk about, you know,

0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:01.439
<v Speaker 1>defying when you especially when you look across his portfolio,

0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:05.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, like lottery like odds to be successful. Um

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.720
<v Speaker 1>here remind us of the Tesla piece of this, because

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:13.880
<v Speaker 1>in terms of influencing everyday life, he has had a

0:18:13.920 --> 0:18:17.320
<v Speaker 1>massive influence there. Yeah, I mean on the you know,

0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:22.520
<v Speaker 1>say is incredible. Tesla is a remarkable story as well.

0:18:22.600 --> 0:18:25.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, without Tesla, I do not think most people

0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:28.879
<v Speaker 1>would be talking about electric cars, and so whether you

0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:31.080
<v Speaker 1>love Tesla or here, I think they're going to go

0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:33.240
<v Speaker 1>banker up to turn a profit. I mean, the reality

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:36.680
<v Speaker 1>is that Elon shifted um the car market to to

0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.760
<v Speaker 1>actually pay attention to electric cars and get consumers interested

0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:44.200
<v Speaker 1>in them. In this particular story, Tesla is strange as

0:18:44.200 --> 0:18:47.119
<v Speaker 1>a result of Musk tweets, because a lot of people

0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 1>buy Tesla's to kind of virtue signal that they care

0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.280
<v Speaker 1>about the environment and may hope, you know, human kind

0:18:52.400 --> 0:18:55.040
<v Speaker 1>ends up in a better place. Um. But because of

0:18:55.119 --> 0:18:58.240
<v Speaker 1>Musk tweets where he's been he's been threatening the pool

0:18:58.240 --> 0:19:00.960
<v Speaker 1>Tesla out of California and go to tech, and he's

0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.439
<v Speaker 1>been tweeting a lot of kind of right stuff. He's

0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>suddenly now now a post child for for conservatives, a

0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:10.800
<v Speaker 1>clident Denis as well. So it's a very strange situation.

0:19:11.280 --> 0:19:13.399
<v Speaker 1>What's also and I love the way towards the end

0:19:13.440 --> 0:19:17.040
<v Speaker 1>of your story you talk about Musk's larger ambitions, which

0:19:17.080 --> 0:19:18.639
<v Speaker 1>I think some people are like, Okay, this is the

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.120
<v Speaker 1>crazy side of Elon Musk, you know, building a human

0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>colony on Mars. But here we are with the pandemic

0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.159
<v Speaker 1>and not quite sure about how this is all going

0:19:27.160 --> 0:19:28.840
<v Speaker 1>to play out, or really what our future is when

0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.879
<v Speaker 1>it comes to you know, devastating viruses and the idea

0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.240
<v Speaker 1>of an alternative planet to maybe go to. Not such

0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:37.479
<v Speaker 1>a crazy idea anymore. Yeah, that's kind of the irony

0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:38.960
<v Speaker 1>of it. What do you allowed to use this? People like,

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 1>why do you want to spend your money on space? Actually? Like, wow,

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:43.680
<v Speaker 1>humans might get wiped out one day and we should

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 1>have this backup plan. And people like whatever, man, you

0:19:45.840 --> 0:19:48.000
<v Speaker 1>know you're crazy. Why don't you go do something else?

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.159
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, a plague hits the world and

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.159
<v Speaker 1>then he's dedying it. But but this is kind of

0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the reason SpaceX was started at the beginning, and so

0:19:57.680 --> 0:20:00.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of symbolism in to the human is

0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:05.359
<v Speaker 1>actually exiting the pandemic on a SpaceX rocket. Yeah. Well

0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:08.879
<v Speaker 1>it's amazing and uh fortunate for us. You are in

0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:12.360
<v Speaker 1>a position to take that call, Ashley fans and write

0:20:12.359 --> 0:20:16.040
<v Speaker 1>about it for Bloomberg Business, Like you got your voicemail

0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.399
<v Speaker 1>and you're like, wait, I bet they were going to connect.

0:20:19.520 --> 0:20:21.440
<v Speaker 1>It sounds like he was. It sounds like he wanted

0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 1>to unburden himself. Ashley. You're the best. Thank you so

0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:26.280
<v Speaker 1>much for spending some time with this feature writer for

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:29.399
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. His book on Elon Musk. It's a

0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:34.440
<v Speaker 1>great quarantine read so timely now given everything that's going on.

0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:39.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason

0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. Well as Jason Kelly and I've

0:20:42.800 --> 0:20:46.680
<v Speaker 1>been talking. It's been the world tour for FED Chief

0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.199
<v Speaker 1>J Powell. I believe what do we call it, the

0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:52.320
<v Speaker 1>lending not spending tour, ending not spending tour JP and

0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:56.160
<v Speaker 1>the Feds. We have heard from j Pale a lot

0:20:56.240 --> 0:20:58.600
<v Speaker 1>over the past week, and he certainly has reaching been

0:20:58.640 --> 0:21:01.360
<v Speaker 1>reaching out getting his message of us. Uh, what does

0:21:01.400 --> 0:21:04.840
<v Speaker 1>it all mean in terms of FED policy. Let's get

0:21:04.840 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 1>into that with Jeffrey Cleveland. He's Chief Economistic Paidon and Regal.

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:11.600
<v Speaker 1>He's joins us on the phone from Los Angeles. Jeffrey,

0:21:11.640 --> 0:21:13.640
<v Speaker 1>great to have you back with us on Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:13.640 --> 0:21:15.120
<v Speaker 1>First of all, tell us a little bit about your

0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:17.480
<v Speaker 1>world out in l A. We know the world is

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:21.040
<v Speaker 1>slowly across the country reopening. Um, how have you been impacted?

0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.680
<v Speaker 1>What's going on? Well, the work from home protocol is

0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:27.320
<v Speaker 1>going pretty well. You know, I'm able to adjust quickly

0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:29.240
<v Speaker 1>to that. I think that the real downside here in

0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:31.560
<v Speaker 1>l A. The weather has been beautiful the last couple

0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:33.520
<v Speaker 1>of weeks, and only within the last week or so

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:36.840
<v Speaker 1>did they open up the detrails here. I went. I

0:21:36.840 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 1>went hiking in the Santa Monica Mountains, which was great,

0:21:39.080 --> 0:21:41.840
<v Speaker 1>and then down to the beach. You can carol. You

0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:44.399
<v Speaker 1>can swim in the ocean, they said, and run at

0:21:44.400 --> 0:21:46.479
<v Speaker 1>the beach, but you're not supposed to sit on the

0:21:46.480 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 1>beach and gather in in crowd. So it's a little

0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:54.800
<v Speaker 1>bit limited. Alright, so some some rules still, right, Yeah,

0:21:54.800 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>but you know, we we're looking at high frequency data.

0:21:56.880 --> 0:21:58.800
<v Speaker 1>So if you're looking at l A public transit, you

0:21:58.840 --> 0:22:01.560
<v Speaker 1>know you got a huge client and activity obviously during

0:22:01.600 --> 0:22:04.960
<v Speaker 1>March and April and into early part of May. But

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:06.920
<v Speaker 1>it looks like it's bottomed out. Looks like those high

0:22:06.960 --> 0:22:10.800
<v Speaker 1>frequency data measures have bottomed out. So if you want

0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:14.000
<v Speaker 1>to find a silver lining, the the April period was

0:22:14.080 --> 0:22:16.920
<v Speaker 1>probably the worst and we are starting to recover because

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:20.920
<v Speaker 1>things are reopening slowly, and so that sort of data,

0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:23.359
<v Speaker 1>those are the same sorts of things that the FED

0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:25.920
<v Speaker 1>is looking at. That J. Powell and his team are

0:22:25.960 --> 0:22:28.840
<v Speaker 1>looking at what do you think are the most important

0:22:28.920 --> 0:22:31.960
<v Speaker 1>data that they should be taking into consideration as they

0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:35.399
<v Speaker 1>figure out what the rest of the m O could

0:22:35.400 --> 0:22:39.840
<v Speaker 1>be in their arsenal and as they make recommendations around

0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:43.600
<v Speaker 1>monetary policy, but also clearly influenced the way we're all

0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:47.400
<v Speaker 1>thinking about the economic landscape going forward. Jeffrey, I think

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:48.919
<v Speaker 1>if you had to pick one, I would look at

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 1>Thursday morning, I would look at the continuing claims with

0:22:51.359 --> 0:22:55.080
<v Speaker 1>the continued claims data, because that, for me, is in

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:57.480
<v Speaker 1>real time the best thing to look at. It's at

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:01.320
<v Speaker 1>million as of yesterday's data. Uh, and it's you know,

0:23:01.359 --> 0:23:03.919
<v Speaker 1>continuing to rise. You want to see that plateau, and

0:23:03.920 --> 0:23:05.960
<v Speaker 1>then you want to see that decline because that would

0:23:05.960 --> 0:23:08.760
<v Speaker 1>be a sign that the p p P program for examples,

0:23:08.760 --> 0:23:11.720
<v Speaker 1>working people are being brought back on payroll, people are

0:23:11.720 --> 0:23:14.040
<v Speaker 1>finding employment that we're reopening, and people are going back

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:16.280
<v Speaker 1>to work. So that's what I would watch. If that

0:23:16.400 --> 0:23:19.439
<v Speaker 1>doesn't if that stays elevated or doesn't come down as quickly,

0:23:19.560 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 1>I think then people might change their tune about the

0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:24.880
<v Speaker 1>shape of the recovery here. It really all comes down

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:27.120
<v Speaker 1>to that are the people laid off, are they permanently

0:23:27.160 --> 0:23:29.199
<v Speaker 1>laid off. Are they temporary laid off? Well, what do

0:23:29.240 --> 0:23:31.200
<v Speaker 1>you think? You know, Jeffrey, you've seen a fair amount

0:23:31.200 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 1>of cycles. I mean, what do you think. Do you

0:23:32.560 --> 0:23:34.960
<v Speaker 1>think it's gonna stay elevated? Um, we have lots of

0:23:35.000 --> 0:23:38.040
<v Speaker 1>stories on the Bloomberg that's say some of those temporary

0:23:38.200 --> 0:23:41.320
<v Speaker 1>setbacks in the labor market will become permanent. Yeah. I

0:23:41.320 --> 0:23:43.800
<v Speaker 1>think people, the hopeful people, the optimists are saying you

0:23:44.720 --> 0:23:48.199
<v Speaker 1>are temporary and then mostiple people will come back. I

0:23:48.240 --> 0:23:51.240
<v Speaker 1>think it's much lower than that, Carol. I think maybe

0:23:51.280 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>something closer to six or temporary and permanent, because you

0:23:55.600 --> 0:23:58.200
<v Speaker 1>are I think you are seeing a reallocation here of

0:23:58.840 --> 0:24:02.120
<v Speaker 1>restructuring of the U. S economy and the global economy

0:24:02.160 --> 0:24:04.800
<v Speaker 1>before the crisis and after the crisis, and so that

0:24:04.840 --> 0:24:07.280
<v Speaker 1>will be different staffing levels, that will be different types

0:24:07.320 --> 0:24:09.439
<v Speaker 1>of people needed, so you won't just have like you

0:24:09.440 --> 0:24:11.200
<v Speaker 1>can't flip the lights on and then therefore what goes

0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:14.840
<v Speaker 1>right back to work as before the world has changed. Jeffrey,

0:24:14.840 --> 0:24:17.679
<v Speaker 1>what do you make of all these discussions around some

0:24:17.800 --> 0:24:22.000
<v Speaker 1>major demographic shifts and geographic shifts that we're hearing about.

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:24.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're talking to you from the New York area,

0:24:24.359 --> 0:24:27.439
<v Speaker 1>you're in Los Angeles, you know, you look up the

0:24:27.480 --> 0:24:29.640
<v Speaker 1>coast from you to San Francisco. You know, these are

0:24:29.680 --> 0:24:34.600
<v Speaker 1>all extraordinarily expensive housing markets. Now we're are facing a

0:24:34.640 --> 0:24:39.680
<v Speaker 1>situation where, you know, Mark Zuckerberg is saying Facebook employees

0:24:39.720 --> 0:24:43.320
<v Speaker 1>maybe remote in the next ten years. Is that something

0:24:43.359 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>that plays into how you think about the economy and

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.280
<v Speaker 1>the short and midterm. Yeah, I think you know, you

0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:52.800
<v Speaker 1>can the phrase I like, gradually then suddenly I think

0:24:52.840 --> 0:24:55.800
<v Speaker 1>there was a gradual sort of murmuring out there about

0:24:55.880 --> 0:24:58.760
<v Speaker 1>remote work and distributed work, and but I think there

0:24:58.800 --> 0:25:01.160
<v Speaker 1>was reluctance. You know, people were conservative, or there's there's

0:25:01.200 --> 0:25:04.000
<v Speaker 1>inertia and management of firms and they, you know, didn't

0:25:04.000 --> 0:25:06.320
<v Speaker 1>want to go that route. And then a crisis happens

0:25:06.320 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 1>and then suddenly you have to experiment. And I could

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:11.840
<v Speaker 1>speak for our firm, it's gone really quite well. And

0:25:11.840 --> 0:25:14.159
<v Speaker 1>so I think we've discovered through that process, hey, we

0:25:14.200 --> 0:25:17.399
<v Speaker 1>can be very effective in communicating with clients, uh, you know,

0:25:17.480 --> 0:25:21.040
<v Speaker 1>remotely distributed. So I think that trend now is exhilarating.

0:25:21.200 --> 0:25:23.560
<v Speaker 1>What does that mean? I think my bias for certain

0:25:23.560 --> 0:25:27.280
<v Speaker 1>geographic areas that have really benefited from the concentration of

0:25:27.280 --> 0:25:29.479
<v Speaker 1>of capital and wealth. San Francisco would be a good

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:32.760
<v Speaker 1>example of that. Maybe maybe that's been the peak, and

0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 1>now as as people get more distributed, they'll they'll filter

0:25:35.640 --> 0:25:37.160
<v Speaker 1>out over the rest of the world. I think this

0:25:37.200 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 1>is a good thing though, for growth longer, because this

0:25:40.119 --> 0:25:42.800
<v Speaker 1>opens up the avenue for talent from all over the

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:45.679
<v Speaker 1>world to be brought into the economy and not just

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:48.480
<v Speaker 1>people who can make it and struggle in areas where

0:25:48.520 --> 0:25:51.280
<v Speaker 1>which are very expensive, like Los Angeles and San Francisco.

0:25:51.320 --> 0:25:53.320
<v Speaker 1>So it's actually a long run of very good thing,

0:25:53.600 --> 0:25:56.000
<v Speaker 1>right if you think about you know how so many struggles,

0:25:56.240 --> 0:25:59.919
<v Speaker 1>so many cities around the country have struggled, right because,

0:26:00.000 --> 0:26:02.040
<v Speaker 1>as you know, people don't want to live there because

0:26:02.080 --> 0:26:04.359
<v Speaker 1>there's nothing happening. But if you can live anywhere and

0:26:04.400 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>still work for Google or Facebook or our company or

0:26:07.080 --> 0:26:10.320
<v Speaker 1>your company, I mean, think about, um, what that opens

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:12.560
<v Speaker 1>up it It It would be pretty dramatic in terms of

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:15.040
<v Speaker 1>changes for our economy. Listen, we just have about a

0:26:15.080 --> 0:26:18.479
<v Speaker 1>minute left. You mentioned about you can do some hiking,

0:26:18.480 --> 0:26:20.480
<v Speaker 1>You can do some swimming. I did not know this

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:23.680
<v Speaker 1>about you, but you are a big time open water swimmer.

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:29.080
<v Speaker 1>You have swam across the English Channel, the Catalina Channel. Um,

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:34.040
<v Speaker 1>and you've also uh swam around Manhattan. I had no idea. Yeah,

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:36.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty eight and a half miles around Manhattan, up the

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:38.560
<v Speaker 1>East River, across the Harlem River if you can call

0:26:38.600 --> 0:26:39.840
<v Speaker 1>it a river, I don't know, you tell me, and

0:26:39.840 --> 0:26:43.840
<v Speaker 1>then down the beautiful Hudson, which was just great to

0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:46.040
<v Speaker 1>finish down the Hudson, and it was I thought the

0:26:46.080 --> 0:26:49.000
<v Speaker 1>cleanest of the three. So yeah, that took eight hours

0:26:49.080 --> 0:26:53.080
<v Speaker 1>and about fourteen minutes, so that those three together considered

0:26:53.080 --> 0:26:56.000
<v Speaker 1>the triple Crown of open water swimming. And I did

0:26:56.040 --> 0:26:59.159
<v Speaker 1>that and at the time, I think Carol person to

0:26:59.200 --> 0:27:00.600
<v Speaker 1>do it. There's there's been a two others that have

0:27:00.680 --> 0:27:04.359
<v Speaker 1>joined that list now though, Wow, amazing, that's incredible. I

0:27:04.400 --> 0:27:06.440
<v Speaker 1>live about two blocks from the Hudson, a little further

0:27:06.520 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 1>up in Westchester, and I have to say it is

0:27:08.359 --> 0:27:10.159
<v Speaker 1>quite a beautiful river. So I'm glad you've got to

0:27:10.160 --> 0:27:13.520
<v Speaker 1>experience it in a way very very few people have.

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:15.639
<v Speaker 1>Jeffrey Cleveland, thank you so much. Great to spend some

0:27:15.640 --> 0:27:17.639
<v Speaker 1>time with you here on a Friday. Chief economists of

0:27:17.680 --> 0:27:19.560
<v Speaker 1>course at Payton and Regal joining us on the phone

0:27:20.000 --> 0:27:24.360
<v Speaker 1>from Los Angeles. I think his point about what this

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 1>up ends in terms of the workforce is huge, and

0:27:27.800 --> 0:27:29.640
<v Speaker 1>it might be a great way to really get more

0:27:29.680 --> 0:27:32.040
<v Speaker 1>evenly distribute. We talked about the inequalities. What if you

0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:35.679
<v Speaker 1>could just help rebuild cities around the country, around the

0:27:35.720 --> 0:27:38.840
<v Speaker 1>world right by making it possible for people to kind

0:27:38.840 --> 0:27:41.440
<v Speaker 1>of live anywhere well. And also you think about the

0:27:41.480 --> 0:27:45.160
<v Speaker 1>implications of those cities Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York

0:27:45.320 --> 0:27:49.080
<v Speaker 1>in many ways become unattainable. Um, you have a huge

0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:53.280
<v Speaker 1>homeless problem in many cases because housing is unaffordable. If

0:27:53.320 --> 0:27:55.560
<v Speaker 1>housing comes down a little bit, and you're hearing some

0:27:55.680 --> 0:27:59.080
<v Speaker 1>anecdotal evidence of this already, it's a game changer for sure.

0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:03.119
<v Speaker 1>Your listing to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:28:03.200 --> 0:28:06.760
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio Listen, we want to get

0:28:06.800 --> 0:28:09.320
<v Speaker 1>right to our next guest, because this call across the

0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg terminal and it comes from Bernie McTurnan. He works

0:28:14.119 --> 0:28:17.240
<v Speaker 1>over at Rosenblatt. He's an analyst, and he says, the

0:28:17.240 --> 0:28:20.320
<v Speaker 1>fitness and wellness company Peloton maybe looking to make another

0:28:20.440 --> 0:28:23.639
<v Speaker 1>version of its high end bank. So Bernie joins us

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.959
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in Fairfield, Connecticut. Bank bike bike. Did

0:28:28.000 --> 0:28:31.440
<v Speaker 1>I say bike based bank? Oh? Sorry, well maybe maybe

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:33.720
<v Speaker 1>they're gonna make bank on their new bike. Maybe they're

0:28:33.720 --> 0:28:36.640
<v Speaker 1>gonna make bank on their new bike. It is definitely Friday, Bernie.

0:28:36.720 --> 0:28:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for your patients here. UM tell us about your

0:28:40.600 --> 0:28:44.320
<v Speaker 1>note here, and you specifically cite some comments from John Foley,

0:28:44.360 --> 0:28:48.800
<v Speaker 1>Peloton CEO that they have talked about launching a value bike.

0:28:48.920 --> 0:28:52.480
<v Speaker 1>What did you hear? Yep, thanks for having me on.

0:28:52.560 --> 0:28:54.920
<v Speaker 1>So there was an article that was published in Time

0:28:54.960 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 1>magazine and talking about having a cheaper bike, and we

0:28:58.240 --> 0:29:01.720
<v Speaker 1>already assume a cheaper track bill uh comes in fiscal

0:29:01.800 --> 0:29:04.800
<v Speaker 1>twenty two, which personally I think is a bigger opportunity

0:29:04.840 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 1>than the value bike. But the conversation of the value

0:29:08.200 --> 0:29:12.800
<v Speaker 1>bike is consistent with their recent discussion on affordability. And

0:29:13.000 --> 0:29:16.160
<v Speaker 1>I think the reason why they're increasingly talking about affordability

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:19.440
<v Speaker 1>is because they've learned from the coronavirus is that their

0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:22.800
<v Speaker 1>customer acquisition costs are just a lot lower than they

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:26.440
<v Speaker 1>originally anticipated, and they have a strategy where they their

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 1>in net customer acquisition costs. So the gross profit that

0:29:29.720 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 1>they make from selling the biker the treadmill um goes

0:29:33.360 --> 0:29:36.160
<v Speaker 1>into sales and marketing expects and all of a sudden

0:29:36.200 --> 0:29:37.920
<v Speaker 1>they think they don't need to spend as much on

0:29:37.960 --> 0:29:40.520
<v Speaker 1>sale as and marketing, so that allows them to invest

0:29:40.560 --> 0:29:44.160
<v Speaker 1>back in the business. Uh. And that means focused on affordability.

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:46.160
<v Speaker 1>And the reason why we like the stock so much

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:49.360
<v Speaker 1>is because of their subscription product. Once people becomes connected

0:29:49.440 --> 0:29:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Fitness subscribers, they don't turn off customer lifetime values. So

0:29:53.560 --> 0:29:57.960
<v Speaker 1>focus on affordability increases with ham drives more subscribers, right,

0:29:58.040 --> 0:29:59.959
<v Speaker 1>And that's really what this all comes down to. An

0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 1>this is and I know this is a tired metaphor, Bernie,

0:30:03.360 --> 0:30:04.600
<v Speaker 1>but I'm going to use it anyway. I mean, this

0:30:04.640 --> 0:30:07.400
<v Speaker 1>is razors and razor blade sort of eight point oh

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:10.200
<v Speaker 1>right in the sense of once you get that bike

0:30:10.280 --> 0:30:12.840
<v Speaker 1>and and full disclosure, I have one, Carroll has one

0:30:13.400 --> 0:30:18.440
<v Speaker 1>um and you really do get Hey, it's hard to

0:30:18.440 --> 0:30:21.200
<v Speaker 1>get rid of to some extent. You're not just gonna

0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 1>be like, yeah, I'm gonna send it back. I'm not

0:30:22.560 --> 0:30:24.520
<v Speaker 1>really using it anymore, and you're going to keep paying

0:30:24.560 --> 0:30:27.920
<v Speaker 1>for it. And it is you know, it's pretty reliable

0:30:28.000 --> 0:30:31.880
<v Speaker 1>from a from a revenue stream perspective, I would imagine Yeah,

0:30:31.920 --> 0:30:34.440
<v Speaker 1>and the two analogies that and I completely get your

0:30:34.600 --> 0:30:36.920
<v Speaker 1>Razors and Razorblar analogy. The ones that we like to

0:30:37.000 --> 0:30:39.959
<v Speaker 1>use are comparing to Netflix and comparing it to Roku.

0:30:40.120 --> 0:30:43.480
<v Speaker 1>So with Netflix, uh, this is a business that really scales.

0:30:43.800 --> 0:30:47.080
<v Speaker 1>And frankly we also cover Netflix even neutral rating on

0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the stock. But with with Netflix, it's um, you know,

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:53.160
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of competition for their content. With HBO

0:30:53.240 --> 0:30:56.680
<v Speaker 1>Max launching next week, you know, there's it's it's a

0:30:56.680 --> 0:31:00.200
<v Speaker 1>bidding process for all the scripts. For peloton um not

0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:02.720
<v Speaker 1>that same way, and it doesn't matter for them if

0:31:02.720 --> 0:31:06.640
<v Speaker 1>you have a thousand people watching, um, you know a

0:31:06.720 --> 0:31:10.360
<v Speaker 1>cycling ride or or a million or two million doesn't matter. Um.

0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:11.959
<v Speaker 1>And so it's the same thing. So we think that

0:31:11.960 --> 0:31:14.760
<v Speaker 1>there's the economies of scale Kinne to Netflix. And then

0:31:14.800 --> 0:31:18.800
<v Speaker 1>also with Roku is interesting because you know, you're selling

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:21.080
<v Speaker 1>a device and this is very similar to the Razors

0:31:21.080 --> 0:31:23.000
<v Speaker 1>and Razor Boys, but you're selling a device and that

0:31:23.080 --> 0:31:25.520
<v Speaker 1>you're making, you know, but the real reasons because of

0:31:25.560 --> 0:31:28.120
<v Speaker 1>that the ancillary revenues on top of it. So for

0:31:28.240 --> 0:31:32.280
<v Speaker 1>Roku with advertising, but for Pelotonic subscription right, well, Bernie,

0:31:32.320 --> 0:31:34.040
<v Speaker 1>how much of you know do you foresee too. And

0:31:34.040 --> 0:31:36.800
<v Speaker 1>I think they're learning this with because of COVID nineteen.

0:31:37.240 --> 0:31:40.479
<v Speaker 1>You know, not only is it having their specific pieces

0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:46.120
<v Speaker 1>of equipment, but just tapping into a streaming world. Yeah. Well,

0:31:46.160 --> 0:31:48.360
<v Speaker 1>I think one of the shifts that we that was

0:31:48.560 --> 0:31:52.480
<v Speaker 1>was happening before the coronavirus was the shift towards home fitness.

0:31:52.520 --> 0:31:55.800
<v Speaker 1>There were things like tonal and mirror like you was

0:31:55.840 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 1>coming out with an app to um. So, I think

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:02.080
<v Speaker 1>there's there was a shift towards home fitness coming anyways,

0:32:02.240 --> 0:32:04.719
<v Speaker 1>and then this and then all of a sudden, trenches

0:32:04.760 --> 0:32:07.440
<v Speaker 1>got accelerated. Um. You know, I don't know who's going

0:32:07.520 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>to be you know, clamoring to go back to a

0:32:09.680 --> 0:32:12.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, a soul cycle or a flywheel and be sweating,

0:32:12.720 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, on the bike, you know, six inches away

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:18.840
<v Speaker 1>from someone else. So I think Holton already had an

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:22.400
<v Speaker 1>advantage of business model just because there's not fifty people

0:32:22.440 --> 0:32:24.920
<v Speaker 1>per class. There could be you know, fifty thou people

0:32:24.960 --> 0:32:27.760
<v Speaker 1>in the class. Um So. I think, you know, tapping

0:32:27.760 --> 0:32:31.600
<v Speaker 1>into those economics, um really is what makes the business

0:32:31.600 --> 0:32:33.640
<v Speaker 1>models so attractive and why we think they'll be able

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.400
<v Speaker 1>to win long term. Really quickly, fifteen seconds, you've got

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:38.760
<v Speaker 1>a fifty six dollars share price target. You feel pretty

0:32:38.760 --> 0:32:40.680
<v Speaker 1>conservative about that? Are you feel pretty good with that

0:32:40.760 --> 0:32:43.960
<v Speaker 1>for the next year? Just quickly. I think there's still

0:32:44.040 --> 0:32:45.880
<v Speaker 1>lots of leverage for them to pull to the upside.

0:32:45.880 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Wrest and the people higher from here? Wow? Interesting? All right? Well,

0:32:50.000 --> 0:32:53.600
<v Speaker 1>great stuff, really interesting. Note and it's a stock certainly

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.680
<v Speaker 1>we've watched very closely since the I p O. Love

0:32:56.720 --> 0:32:58.520
<v Speaker 1>to keep in touch with Bernie McTernan. He is an

0:32:58.560 --> 0:33:01.480
<v Speaker 1>analyst for Rosenblat Securities. Join us on the phone from

0:33:01.600 --> 0:33:09.960
<v Speaker 1>Connecticut Road Journal. Now, but you let me drive? Oh no,

0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:14.760
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, no home, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel.

0:33:16.160 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. Just drive, baby, it's the questions trying.

0:33:31.560 --> 0:33:34.840
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks.

0:33:34.880 --> 0:33:39.760
<v Speaker 1>We'll drying us Dawn on Bloomberg Radio, It is time

0:33:39.840 --> 0:33:41.840
<v Speaker 1>for the drive to the close, getting ready to wrap

0:33:41.920 --> 0:33:44.080
<v Speaker 1>up the trading day and the trading week before the

0:33:44.120 --> 0:33:46.640
<v Speaker 1>long holiday week, and Larry Pittkowski is back with us,

0:33:46.680 --> 0:33:50.200
<v Speaker 1>co founder, UH and portfolio manager at good Haven Capital

0:33:50.240 --> 0:33:53.320
<v Speaker 1>Management based in Milburgh, New Jersey. And that's exactly where

0:33:53.320 --> 0:33:55.960
<v Speaker 1>we find him on the phone on this Friday Larry.

0:33:56.040 --> 0:33:58.120
<v Speaker 1>Nice to have you hear. How how are you doing?

0:33:58.720 --> 0:34:01.320
<v Speaker 1>I am doing fine, Carol, and doing okay? How are

0:34:01.320 --> 0:34:03.920
<v Speaker 1>you doing? We're doing okay. You know, it's amazing we

0:34:04.120 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 1>can uh, and it's pretty remarkable of the folks that

0:34:06.800 --> 0:34:09.040
<v Speaker 1>we talked to. And a lot of people are working

0:34:09.040 --> 0:34:12.400
<v Speaker 1>and doing their thing. That's certainly we know unfortunately not

0:34:12.440 --> 0:34:15.640
<v Speaker 1>the case for everyone. Um, but move it along. And

0:34:15.680 --> 0:34:18.759
<v Speaker 1>it's been an interesting week where we saw some enthusiasm

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:21.239
<v Speaker 1>come back into the equity markets. We continue to hear

0:34:21.280 --> 0:34:24.520
<v Speaker 1>a lot from the Federal Reserve overall, and certainly the

0:34:24.520 --> 0:34:27.719
<v Speaker 1>Fed Chief J. Powell. Uh, what are you noticing that's

0:34:27.760 --> 0:34:30.200
<v Speaker 1>kind of interesting in the trade and maybe what you're

0:34:30.239 --> 0:34:34.120
<v Speaker 1>hearing from some of your clients, Well, it's been a

0:34:34.200 --> 0:34:37.960
<v Speaker 1>very unusual period, uh, Carol. You know, we are modus

0:34:38.000 --> 0:34:41.520
<v Speaker 1>operandi overall the years at good Haven, in in my

0:34:41.600 --> 0:34:46.560
<v Speaker 1>prior life, was to you know, be very aggressive investing

0:34:47.200 --> 0:34:50.720
<v Speaker 1>when there is severe downturns and market volatility and panic

0:34:50.800 --> 0:34:54.120
<v Speaker 1>selling and the things that we saw in March. And

0:34:54.440 --> 0:34:58.239
<v Speaker 1>I was aggressive in March. We probably put about you know,

0:34:59.440 --> 0:35:03.120
<v Speaker 1>our to work during those you know, really dark days

0:35:03.120 --> 0:35:07.960
<v Speaker 1>of market volatility. Uh. And now you've had prices uh

0:35:08.160 --> 0:35:11.480
<v Speaker 1>lift substantially in some areas, and you've had credit markets

0:35:11.560 --> 0:35:16.600
<v Speaker 1>much improved. And I think you've shifted now from will

0:35:16.640 --> 0:35:19.480
<v Speaker 1>the economy and will be you know, credit markets and

0:35:19.560 --> 0:35:22.520
<v Speaker 1>banking markets, Will everything function normally? And now you're asking

0:35:22.560 --> 0:35:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a question of what are certain companies going to earn

0:35:24.640 --> 0:35:26.400
<v Speaker 1>over the next six to twenty four months, which is

0:35:26.440 --> 0:35:28.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot harder. So I think you've you've taken the

0:35:29.000 --> 0:35:32.080
<v Speaker 1>fear of a lack of uh functioning of a lot

0:35:32.120 --> 0:35:34.520
<v Speaker 1>of important parts of the system. You you put that

0:35:34.600 --> 0:35:37.360
<v Speaker 1>over to this side thanks to the you know, very

0:35:37.360 --> 0:35:40.840
<v Speaker 1>strong efforts of the Federal Reserve and you know, Congress

0:35:40.840 --> 0:35:42.879
<v Speaker 1>in the White House. And now you've got to sift

0:35:42.960 --> 0:35:46.440
<v Speaker 1>through as an investor in try and see if you

0:35:46.640 --> 0:35:49.799
<v Speaker 1>are comfortable looking a little bit forward. And some industries

0:35:49.840 --> 0:35:54.120
<v Speaker 1>are relatively straightforward, but lots of others, you know, it's, uh,

0:35:54.239 --> 0:35:57.239
<v Speaker 1>it's a bit of a wild card. Yeah, So Mary,

0:35:57.280 --> 0:35:59.640
<v Speaker 1>walk us through some of that. I mean, obviously you

0:35:59.680 --> 0:36:02.040
<v Speaker 1>were makeing some initial bets, as you say, during a

0:36:02.160 --> 0:36:05.160
<v Speaker 1>very dark period of time when most people were certainly

0:36:05.560 --> 0:36:07.959
<v Speaker 1>running the other way. You know, you were running into

0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:11.560
<v Speaker 1>this market which is noble and probably paid off quite

0:36:11.560 --> 0:36:14.040
<v Speaker 1>well for you, as as you alluded to and its

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:17.120
<v Speaker 1>care alluded to. In terms of where the markets are today,

0:36:17.200 --> 0:36:21.080
<v Speaker 1>how has your thinking evolved in terms of who may

0:36:21.200 --> 0:36:24.040
<v Speaker 1>come out of this, either in terms of individual names

0:36:24.080 --> 0:36:26.880
<v Speaker 1>or in terms of sectors now that we are starting

0:36:26.880 --> 0:36:29.520
<v Speaker 1>to at least get some sense of the shape of

0:36:29.520 --> 0:36:34.440
<v Speaker 1>the recovery. Well, I think as as I was looking

0:36:34.600 --> 0:36:38.160
<v Speaker 1>at purchases to make during that period, and and you know,

0:36:38.239 --> 0:36:40.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm not as I'm not as young as I look.

0:36:40.640 --> 0:36:44.160
<v Speaker 1>We're sounds, so I've seen my share of downturns, but

0:36:44.400 --> 0:36:48.200
<v Speaker 1>I think what was most unusual about this one, and

0:36:48.640 --> 0:36:51.040
<v Speaker 1>it is nothing that's been seen before by anybody, is

0:36:51.080 --> 0:36:52.759
<v Speaker 1>you know, to have a cessation of such a large

0:36:52.760 --> 0:36:56.640
<v Speaker 1>part of the economy makes forward thinking very difficult for

0:36:56.760 --> 0:37:00.440
<v Speaker 1>lots of industries where some of the potential bargains so are.

0:37:00.760 --> 0:37:03.000
<v Speaker 1>And so you know, there were lots of industries where,

0:37:03.320 --> 0:37:06.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, where the relatively straightforward, but that's not where

0:37:06.000 --> 0:37:09.799
<v Speaker 1>the potential opportunities may have lied. For instance, in the

0:37:09.880 --> 0:37:14.880
<v Speaker 1>financial sector during March, I think there was a uh,

0:37:14.920 --> 0:37:16.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, a bit of a view that a lot

0:37:16.640 --> 0:37:20.560
<v Speaker 1>of the alternative asset managers who had some leverage within

0:37:20.600 --> 0:37:24.160
<v Speaker 1>their investment portfolios would be in for a very difficult

0:37:24.200 --> 0:37:27.440
<v Speaker 1>period and might have some real problems. Uh. We had

0:37:27.480 --> 0:37:30.520
<v Speaker 1>had our eye on kk R for quite some time

0:37:30.520 --> 0:37:33.279
<v Speaker 1>at good Haven. We like to buy good businesses run

0:37:33.280 --> 0:37:36.160
<v Speaker 1>by talented management teams, where the management teams have skin

0:37:36.200 --> 0:37:38.879
<v Speaker 1>in the game. And you know, KKR has built quite

0:37:38.880 --> 0:37:43.200
<v Speaker 1>a machine. Assets under management or two seven billion dollars.

0:37:43.200 --> 0:37:45.760
<v Speaker 1>They've grown in about seventeen percent years since so five

0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:49.640
<v Speaker 1>employees in the management own about of the company. They've

0:37:49.640 --> 0:37:52.319
<v Speaker 1>grown books value at a very nice clip, I think

0:37:52.360 --> 0:37:55.439
<v Speaker 1>about ten percent a year since O nine and as

0:37:55.520 --> 0:37:57.840
<v Speaker 1>the share is really cascaded all the way down to

0:37:57.880 --> 0:38:01.120
<v Speaker 1>the mid teams, h we use it as an opportunity

0:38:01.239 --> 0:38:04.080
<v Speaker 1>to make some purchases which I think, you know, they've

0:38:04.120 --> 0:38:05.920
<v Speaker 1>already worked out fine, but I think they'll work at

0:38:06.040 --> 0:38:08.719
<v Speaker 1>very well over time. And I think it's still interesting well,

0:38:08.719 --> 0:38:12.280
<v Speaker 1>and it's interesting about KKR. And keep me honest here, Larry.

0:38:12.480 --> 0:38:16.760
<v Speaker 1>One of the differentials I believe between them and their

0:38:16.800 --> 0:38:21.400
<v Speaker 1>competitors like Blackstone and Carlisle is that they are more

0:38:21.440 --> 0:38:24.600
<v Speaker 1>aggressive or sort of structurally able to use their balance

0:38:24.680 --> 0:38:27.080
<v Speaker 1>sheet right in a different way than some of those

0:38:27.120 --> 0:38:29.919
<v Speaker 1>other names are Yeah, I think that's a great point.

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:35.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean they have become more focused on growing book value. Uh,

0:38:35.560 --> 0:38:38.319
<v Speaker 1>and they've been very articulate about that. And you know,

0:38:38.320 --> 0:38:41.320
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting. We own some Brookfield Asset Management, which we

0:38:41.360 --> 0:38:43.239
<v Speaker 1>own because we own some oak Tree and it got

0:38:43.239 --> 0:38:46.640
<v Speaker 1>what by Brookfield and Brookfield came at their current business

0:38:46.680 --> 0:38:49.640
<v Speaker 1>structure being a grow book value for the owners and

0:38:49.680 --> 0:38:53.080
<v Speaker 1>then build an asset management business. And KKR has come

0:38:53.120 --> 0:38:56.160
<v Speaker 1>at it from having asset management business and then focus

0:38:56.239 --> 0:38:59.160
<v Speaker 1>on growing book value. And you know, they've got I

0:38:59.200 --> 0:39:02.600
<v Speaker 1>think to see the one of the executives set on

0:39:02.640 --> 0:39:05.360
<v Speaker 1>the recent call, they've got something like of the assets

0:39:05.400 --> 0:39:08.200
<v Speaker 1>are locked up for eight years or longer, and so

0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:11.960
<v Speaker 1>they're focused on it. As you said, in a different sense.

0:39:12.000 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 1>But you've got a great underlying business. You've got people

0:39:14.560 --> 0:39:17.200
<v Speaker 1>that seem to be very talented investors, they've got skin

0:39:17.239 --> 0:39:19.080
<v Speaker 1>in the game, and they are focused on growing books

0:39:19.160 --> 0:39:22.440
<v Speaker 1>value and they have been very active. I think they

0:39:22.480 --> 0:39:26.719
<v Speaker 1>put you know, eight billion dollars to work, probably more

0:39:26.880 --> 0:39:30.760
<v Speaker 1>by now during let's call it, you know, March and April,

0:39:31.239 --> 0:39:33.960
<v Speaker 1>including a substantial amount in the credit market. So we

0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:38.040
<v Speaker 1>think that will serve owners well over time. Is there

0:39:38.080 --> 0:39:41.440
<v Speaker 1>anything you would not buy in particular in this market environment.

0:39:43.440 --> 0:39:45.879
<v Speaker 1>That's a hard question, Carl. I mean there's always, there's

0:39:45.920 --> 0:39:48.200
<v Speaker 1>always things. I think you just have to look at

0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:51.640
<v Speaker 1>something and see if you can come up with some

0:39:51.719 --> 0:39:54.560
<v Speaker 1>reasonable range of estimates about what you think the future

0:39:54.600 --> 0:39:57.120
<v Speaker 1>looks like, and then has that stock price or bond

0:39:57.160 --> 0:40:01.520
<v Speaker 1>price compare with what you think the UH company is worth.

0:40:01.680 --> 0:40:04.520
<v Speaker 1>And there's always things where you just you know it

0:40:04.920 --> 0:40:07.240
<v Speaker 1>belongs in the too hard pole. You just can't figure

0:40:07.239 --> 0:40:10.880
<v Speaker 1>it out, or you think the price is no bar again,

0:40:11.000 --> 0:40:14.600
<v Speaker 1>or you think it's it's too dangerously leveraged, or there's

0:40:14.800 --> 0:40:18.160
<v Speaker 1>there's there. There should be very few things, even during

0:40:18.160 --> 0:40:21.040
<v Speaker 1>a downturn. You've always got to be very picky. There

0:40:21.040 --> 0:40:23.200
<v Speaker 1>should be very few things you're willing to do. You

0:40:23.200 --> 0:40:27.640
<v Speaker 1>should pretend you've got UH. You know a limited number

0:40:27.640 --> 0:40:30.799
<v Speaker 1>of decisions you can make in your investment lifetime, and

0:40:30.840 --> 0:40:33.320
<v Speaker 1>it will serve you better. You'll make fewer and hopefully

0:40:33.360 --> 0:40:36.120
<v Speaker 1>there will be a better quality. All right, We're gonna

0:40:36.160 --> 0:40:37.959
<v Speaker 1>leave it there. I hope you have a nice long

0:40:38.000 --> 0:40:41.160
<v Speaker 1>holiday weekend. Larry Pittkowski, co founder portfolio manager of good

0:40:41.160 --> 0:40:45.359
<v Speaker 1>Haven Capital Management, Johnny's on the phone from Millburn, New Jersey.

0:40:45.680 --> 0:40:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download

0:40:48.160 --> 0:40:50.680
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0:40:50.680 --> 0:40:53.040
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0:40:53.040 --> 0:40:55.360
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