1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:12,120 Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What's up, everybody. 2 00:00:12,200 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 1: Jason McIntyre here, Straight Fire, October two. It's a beautiful 3 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: Friday in Los Angeles, very warm this morning, and it's 4 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 1: called in New York. My Jets go down badly. Okay, 5 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: they lost Thursday night football. They lost the best bet 6 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 1: for me. And I don't know at what point today 7 00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: Adam Gays gets fired. Do they do it in the 8 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,239 Speaker 1: morning and get it over with. Do they wait till 9 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 1: the end of the day and try to bury it 10 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 1: at the late Friday, end of the week news cycle. 11 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 1: But you cannot, under any circumstances just have him running 12 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: this team anymore. The Jets were a total embarrassment last night. Um, 13 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 1: and the end of the game is what I want 14 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: to start with because it really encapsulates where the Jets 15 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:54,880 Speaker 1: are as a franchise. Right now. Let me just set 16 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: it up for you real quick. So the Jets fail 17 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: on fourth down there, down by nine, one minute left, 18 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: it's over, okay, there's no nine point play in the NFL. 19 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: They just have two time outs. The Broncos get the ball, 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 1: they take a knee, and the Jets called time out, 21 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: and everybody's like, what are you doing? Why? Why are 22 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,400 Speaker 1: you calling time out? Adam Gaze and he's over there. 23 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:16,640 Speaker 1: They show him on the sideline and he's the you know, 24 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,480 Speaker 1: the Jets coach looking at his play sheet like it's 25 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: going to give him any answers. You're down nine, you 26 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:26,199 Speaker 1: only have two time outs, there's a minute left, there's nothing, 27 00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: there's no point, it's over. It's a rat. The Broncos 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: take another knee, Adam Gaze calls another time out. At 29 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: this point, the Broncos quarterback looks over to the sideline 30 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: and he kind of puts his hands out like dude, 31 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: what are you doing? And now you start to realize, 32 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, so the Broncos can't run out the 33 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 1: clock and then it gets weird, folks. Okay, so it 34 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: ends up being fourth down, there's thirteen seconds left, and 35 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: the Broncos say, well, we don't want to just hand 36 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: the ball to them. Let's just throw it deep and 37 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: maybe if it's the ball stays up in the air, 38 00:01:56,880 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 1: the clock will run out. Quarterback drops back. He's under pressure. 39 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: He gets drilled and guess what, the Jets have jumped offside. 40 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: The quarterback like picks himself up off the ground injured. Okay, 41 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: and now at this point, everybody's like, Jets, what are 42 00:02:09,600 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: you doing? I mean, they have five personal foul penalties 43 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,560 Speaker 1: at this point of the game. They're trying to kill 44 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 1: the quarterback and the Broncos coach starts getting piste. So 45 00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 1: they have to replay the down because it was fourth 46 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: and thirteen because they had taken the knees five yards 47 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: for the off side. What happens on fourth and eight, 48 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: Broncos throw it deep again. The Jets level the quarterback. Okay, 49 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 1: the undrafted kid who they didn't sack all night, but 50 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 1: they tried to take his head off. It felt like 51 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: a bounty game from Greg Williams, the Jets defensive coordinator 52 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: personal foul. At this point, the Broncos coaches, I rate 53 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: the Jets are just like dumbfounded. They are looking like 54 00:02:45,160 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: idiots for Adam Gays calling time outs and you're never 55 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: gonna believe what happens. They take a knee and Vic 56 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 1: Fangio runs across the field pointing to his team, don't 57 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: shake hands, get out of here, and a Broncos offensive 58 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: lineman was so mad he was cursing at Gaze and 59 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 1: Fangio has to yank him out of there. Listen, this 60 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 1: is an embarrassment for the league. We already know the 61 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,720 Speaker 1: Jets are a borderline embarrassment, and folks, I gotta admit 62 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: something right here. Okay, I let my heart get in 63 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: the way of my head and picking football games. And 64 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 1: I thought, man, Tom Brady leaves the division, the Bills, 65 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:29,760 Speaker 1: Josh Gordon. Do we trust Josh Gordon? Cam Newton's filling 66 00:03:29,800 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: in for for Brady. Cam all the shoulder surgeries, the 67 00:03:32,720 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: thirty one, he could be washed. The Dolphins are a joke. 68 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,839 Speaker 1: Maybe the Jet steal this division. And I got all 69 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: optimistic and I just missed it. I whipped badly. I'm embarrassed. 70 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: They just lost to an undrafted kid out of Boise 71 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: State in his first start in the NFL. He did 72 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,920 Speaker 1: throw a pick six, he was intercepted two other times, 73 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: but he did not look terrible against the Jets defense. 74 00:03:57,920 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: And that's the worst part. That's what hurts the most. 75 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: Like he was capable. I do want to thank Melvin 76 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 1: Gordon for that touchdown run there at the end of 77 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: my fantasy team. Thanks you. I'm playing one of the 78 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: best teams in the league, and um, I know nobody 79 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: cares about my fantasy team. But I just had to 80 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 1: thank Melvin Gordon for that. And this is where you 81 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,720 Speaker 1: start to wonder, like, hey man, what's Sam Donald's future 82 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: with this team, Because, as much as it pains me 83 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: to admit it, the Jets are hurdling toward a top 84 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: five pick in draft, and Trevor Lawrence is going to 85 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 1: be there, and justin fields of Ohio State's gonna be there, 86 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 1: this kid, Trey Lance from North Dakota State is playing 87 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: a game I believe this weekend where all the scouts 88 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 1: from the NFL are going so there. Their season got 89 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: canceled and they set up one specific game for this 90 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 1: weekend so he could have like a showcase game, this kid, 91 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,680 Speaker 1: Trey Lance. Of course, same college to produce Carson Wentz 92 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 1: and this kid can ball. He didn't I think he had. 93 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,120 Speaker 1: I think it was twenty eight touchdown zero picks last year. 94 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:58,479 Speaker 1: He's great. Look him up on YouTube. He's gonna be 95 00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: a first round pick. That's a given. It's just how 96 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: high is he gonna go? And I'm not one to 97 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 1: bail on Donald. I love the draft pick um. I 98 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:08,919 Speaker 1: think he's got a future in the league. You I 99 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:11,560 Speaker 1: mean he just had a franchise record eighty four rushing 100 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: yards on Thursday Night, including that phenomenal touchdown run. But listen, 101 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 1: new GM that did not draft Sam Donald. You're gonna 102 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: have a new coach next season who is not invested 103 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: in Sam Donald. I don't know what the future holds, 104 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,760 Speaker 1: but um, it's the Jets. What are you gonna do 105 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: about it? You know they stink? They're my team and 106 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,000 Speaker 1: my kids. Let me wrap up on this. My kids 107 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 1: asked me before the game, why do you root for 108 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 1: the Jets dead because they stink? And I said, well, 109 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:42,480 Speaker 1: I was born in New York, and I didn't want 110 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: to like the hometown Washington Redskins where I was growing 111 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: up in Northern Virginia, so I decided to like the 112 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: team where I was born. And then I always get well, 113 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:55,480 Speaker 1: why did you pick the Giants? Uh, there's New York Jets. 114 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 1: All right. Let me move to a more interesting story 115 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: now than the Jets Broncos Thursday Night thriller. And I'll 116 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: just do a couple of minutes on this. And Rob 117 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 1: g has something he wants to chime in with. So 118 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving is not in the bubble if you remember, 119 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: and let's recap this. Before the Bubble started, Kyrie Irving 120 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,159 Speaker 1: tried to derail it. Remember he jumped on that conference call. 121 00:06:19,200 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 1: He tried to wrangle some of the NBA play Why 122 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 1: are we going to the bubble now? Kyrie Irving was hurt. 123 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: Wasn't gonna go to the bubble anyway. Okay, he was 124 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: not going to be able to participate as a player. 125 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 1: He tried to derail it. Okay, imagine that the Bubble 126 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:36,160 Speaker 1: goes on without Kyrie Irving. Unbelievable. A couple of hiccups, 127 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: but considering the circumstances, the Bubble was a success without 128 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:45,479 Speaker 1: Kyrie Irving. Now NBA Finals are underway, Lebron on track 129 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: to win his fourth title, first since Kyrie demanded a 130 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: trade and couldn't handle being the second Banana and Cleveland, 131 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: and Kyrie Irving decides to go on Kevin Durant's new 132 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: podcast and make a splash. This is the first time 133 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: in my career I can look down and be like 134 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:07,919 Speaker 1: that motherfucker can make that shot too. When talking about 135 00:07:07,960 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 1: the end of games, Kyrie Irving says this as the 136 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: NBA Finals tip off. Okay, so two years ago, Kyrie 137 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: Irving was in Boston with some really nice young players 138 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 1: Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and um. I guess he didn't 139 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: think those guys were capable of taking the last second shot. 140 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:32,000 Speaker 1: And before that, Kyrie played on a team in Cleveland 141 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:35,520 Speaker 1: that had this Sky that was basically widely considered the 142 00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: second best player in NBA history. And I'm on record 143 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 1: saying he will be the goat with a title this year. 144 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: And you guys are disputing, and I've seen your Instagram comments. Okay, 145 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 1: we'll get into that. We've got plenty of time for that. 146 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: And Kyrie thinks Lebron could not make it end of 147 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: the game shot. You know, I I kind of fell 148 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: for it. I thought Kyrie Irving was maturing last year. 149 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: If you remember, guys, Kyrie called Lebron because they had 150 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 1: like this after he demanded the trade. They didn't talk, 151 00:08:05,600 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 1: they were on the ounce. Kyrie called Lebron and he 152 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: didn't totally apologize, but he said something to the effect of, 153 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 1: you know, I know why things didn't work out between us, 154 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: And he was essentially referring to be a young being 155 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: a young punkin Cleveland thinking he was ready to be 156 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 1: the man, and he wasn't the man. He thought he 157 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: was ready, and then he was going through the same 158 00:08:30,200 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: thing in Boston where Tatum and Jaylen Brown's thought they 159 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,680 Speaker 1: were ready to be the man. Kyrie's like, YO, back 160 00:08:35,760 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: up off me, YadA, YadA, YadA. Kira was like, oh, 161 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: I see what Lebron was going through with me, So 162 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: Kyrie called him. You know, it's it's a weird move. 163 00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: It's like moving on from your girlfriend who you've had many, 164 00:08:48,480 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: many years with. You thought you were gonna get married, 165 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: and then you're dating someone else and you decided to 166 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,200 Speaker 1: call the X and be like, oh, yeah, I get it, 167 00:08:56,280 --> 00:08:58,360 Speaker 1: I get it. I get why we didn't work out, 168 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: Like why are you calling me? What's your what are 169 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 1: you doing? You think Lebron needed to hear from Kyrie Irving. 170 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 1: So I thought Kyrie had matured with that call a 171 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: little bit. But he pulls these two stunts, trying to 172 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 1: derail the bubble, then going on the podcast and taking 173 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,440 Speaker 1: a subtle shot at Lebron. I don't give a ship 174 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 1: what Kyrie says, Oh, it wasn't a shot at Lebron. 175 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 1: He went on Instagram after everybody went after him, and 176 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:24,640 Speaker 1: he's like, oh, it wasn't a shot at Lebron, What 177 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: are you guys talking about? Let get out of here, man. 178 00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: I just it's a little disappointing that at twenty eight 179 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,439 Speaker 1: years old, Kyrie Irving is still look at me guy 180 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 1: like he misses the spotlight. He needs the spotlight, like 181 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: it's oxygen. And I still will never wonder. I still 182 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 1: will never understand why Kevin Durant left one of the 183 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 1: most unselfish awesome teams ever in the Golden State Warriors, 184 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: and left them to join forces with one of the 185 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: most selfi stars in the NBA in Kyrieving. I'll never 186 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: understand that Durant could give d me the answer and 187 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: it will not make sense. I mean, I'm embarrassed for 188 00:10:08,880 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: Durant that Kyrie Irving is dragging him down into a 189 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: gut or that Durant doesn't need to be and he 190 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 1: was the best player in the NBA. Durant's gotten older, 191 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 1: he's a better player than Kyrie Irving will ever be, 192 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 1: and now he's embrolled in this nonsense like I don't 193 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: know what what's going on with Durant. Um. I hope 194 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: it works out for him in Kyrie, and I hope 195 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: they win a lot of games. But um, Kyrie Irving. 196 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: What an embarrassment. Um, I don't. I don't have much 197 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 1: else to add. We do have a great guest coming 198 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 1: up in Ace Coralis. If you're interested in gambling on 199 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,080 Speaker 1: Week four in the NFL, he offers some awesome stuff. 200 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,320 Speaker 1: But Rob g quickly on Kyrie Irving, UM, I know 201 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: you're a big Kyrie guy. I think you had the 202 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: hashtag future Laker on Kyrie once, maybe three years ago. 203 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:00,720 Speaker 1: That is true. I did have that and then again, 204 00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: but then again, as you know, the hashtag future Lakers 205 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 1: not actually mean that they're going to be a Laker. 206 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 1: It just, you know, only certain players are good enough 207 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:12,680 Speaker 1: to receive that kind of prestigious moniker, and he just 208 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: happens to be one of them. As you know, the 209 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: Future Lakers starting five is a d who's already a Laker, 210 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 1: Lebron who's already a Laker, uh Kawhi Leonards still on 211 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: the list, which is good for him, Clay Thompson and 212 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: um Damian Lillard with Russell Westbrook, it's a sixth man. 213 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 1: So braleyal no, he's not on the Future Laker listening yet. 214 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:32,760 Speaker 1: Paul George had been on there, but we dropped him 215 00:11:32,800 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: like third period French. Yeah, he's gone. Now again, going 216 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: back to what you said about Kyrie Irving, not only 217 00:11:39,679 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 1: did what he say was it stupid? I mean, it 218 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 1: was just the dumb thing to say at a time, 219 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: especially right now. You know, it doesn't make any sense 220 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 1: as Lebron's going for his fourth title, but it's factually inaccurate. 221 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: So here's a couple of numbers of the RATI in 222 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,480 Speaker 1: the fourth quarters of the three one finals come back 223 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 1: that Kyrie has been living off of, you know, for 224 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: what five years now that that's you know, he's so 225 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: clutch because he made that one. I was a big shot. 226 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: But in the fourth quarters Lebron was averaging eleven three 227 00:12:09,040 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 1: and two on a true shooting percentage of fifty percent. 228 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 1: Kyrie was six one and zero on fifty percent true shooting, 229 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,040 Speaker 1: which is terrible for a clutch score. Like you know, 230 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: Kyrie claims to beat number two. If you're to look 231 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: at just you know, fourth quarter playoffs scoring throughout that 232 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: entire playoff run, let's say, not just the finals. You know, 233 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: the finals, guys get tight. Lebron James hundred and twenty 234 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 1: points on forty eight percent shooting in the in the 235 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 1: fourth quarter in the playoffs, kyriets on forty two percent shooting. 236 00:12:45,720 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 1: What's going on in his head? But then here's the 237 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: other one. And again I know that you know Katie's 238 00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: your guy, and you know you had him over for 239 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 1: that brunch. I think it's like two and af weeks ago. 240 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: What was it that the salmon? I think he told 241 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: me about that. Uh, Katie's awesome. But if you go 242 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: through in their playoff careers Lebron versus Kevin Durant, the 243 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: idea that Kevin Durant is more clutch or extra a 244 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 1: lot more clutch than Lebron James is just factor Lee inaccurate. 245 00:13:15,160 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: Not only does Lebron have the most game winners in 246 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: the NBA playoff history more than the supposed goat Michael 247 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: Jordan's fourth quarter scoring, Lebron James affective field goal percentage 248 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 1: forty nine point seven KDE, so they right around the 249 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: same clutch scoring. This is the one that surprised me. 250 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: Kevin Durant forty five point three effective field real percentage 251 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:43,439 Speaker 1: Lebron forty six point four. So Lebron is not only 252 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:46,440 Speaker 1: light years more clutch than Kyrie has ever been. So 253 00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 1: the fact that he was the best closing option. Didn't 254 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:52,960 Speaker 1: make sense period. Lebron's arguably even more clutch than his 255 00:13:53,000 --> 00:13:56,319 Speaker 1: teammate who He's said, you know, other than me, he's 256 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 1: the most close guy I could play with. That's not true. 257 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 1: I mean in I don't want to go down the 258 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 1: flat Earth rabbit hole. But if have you seen Social 259 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: Dilemma yet, Rob g on Netflix? Not yet. You've texted 260 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:09,959 Speaker 1: me about it, You've tweeted me about it, You've called 261 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:11,319 Speaker 1: me about it, and I said, I'll not watching it. 262 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: I know I I don't want to push you away. 263 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: I don't like when everybody tells me to do something. 264 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: I don't like to do it. But I will say this. 265 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: They reference Kyrie Irving's flat Earth it uh is a 266 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: thing because I guess Kyrie Irving watched a bunch of 267 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: YouTube videos from random people who are saying like, the 268 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: Earth is flat, and Kyrie's like, wow, that's a good point, 269 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: and then he goes and says, well, the Earth might 270 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: be flat, Like I mean if anyways, Kyrie Irving, I'm 271 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: done with you. I'm done with Adam gaze Um, and 272 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: I'm done with this segment coming up next. We have 273 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: a great interview Week four in the NFL, A bunch 274 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: of gambling tips. The smart man Ace Corals He's up next. 275 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes 276 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports stands want, But for 277 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's 278 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who who knows a 279 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,480 Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into 280 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: straight Fire a guy I've known for a long time, 281 00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 1: big time Vegas gambler, Ace Corrals joining straight Fire. Ace. 282 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,120 Speaker 1: How are you man? Never better? Good to see you, Jay, 283 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: Good to see you, man. It's been a while, but 284 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 1: I've known you now for a for a long time, 285 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: probably five maybe ten years, when I was a young 286 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: guy in entering the super Contest and I was still like, 287 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: you know, I liked gambling and I was new, but 288 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 1: I mean, ACEO you had, you had like the inside 289 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 1: info and we're like a real Vegas guy before all 290 00:15:37,400 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 1: this scambling gold rush. And I would text you like, man, 291 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: I really like the Detroit Lions. You'd be like, they 292 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: that's a wrong side and this is like a Thursday. 293 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: I'll be like, oh man, I'm on the rong side. 294 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,560 Speaker 1: So anyways. Uh, but yeah, he's a Your profile has 295 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 1: risen big time. You've been in Vegas for how long now? 296 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: Twenty something years. I came here, Jay, When I came 297 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,720 Speaker 1: as a runner, I was working out of the Stardust 298 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: before online. When you know Don Best used to call 299 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: with line changes. Yeah, you were a bookie. You paid 300 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: five dollars a month and if one of us betted 301 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 1: at the Dust that Don Best would call you and say, 302 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: moved the line from four to five and a half. 303 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: That's when I got into it, and when I met you, 304 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 1: it had just exploded off shore. I was at of work. 305 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 1: They didn't need runners up and down the strip anymore. 306 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: They could get down so much money just clicking their mouths. 307 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: Since then, it's changed Now everyone needs accounts, and I 308 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: provide accounts, so I'm able to move for them again 309 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 1: and see all the stuff they're betting. But what funny 310 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: is back then, when I first met you, I had 311 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: that was right after that experience of running for close 312 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 1: to a decade maybe of the sharpest stuff. And the 313 00:16:49,000 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: truth is I had access to the best information and 314 00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: I still didn't know what to do. It is like 315 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: I lost multiple bank rolls, I went broken multiple times 316 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: with winning information, and that I actually showed me like 317 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: how hard it is to really win. I I was 318 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: sitting on gold and I couldn't turn it into money, 319 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: let alone. You know, if you don't have that kind 320 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: of information, that was learning the discipline is what took 321 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,959 Speaker 1: the longest time. Yes, So, I mean here we are 322 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: in and now gambling has exploded. It's legal, and I 323 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:22,719 Speaker 1: don't like maybe a dozen states probably within the next decade, 324 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,920 Speaker 1: will be legal in like forty states. Um, and you know, listen, 325 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: it's on television, it's on the web, it's it's everywhere. 326 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: How how have you seen, specific to the NFL, how 327 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 1: have you seen the bets coming in? It looks like 328 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 1: lines are moving much faster and earlier than they did 329 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: in years past. You're so right, And I think the 330 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,160 Speaker 1: reason for that is volume. Volume. Volume. You know, there's 331 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: two things that move lines, money and respect. And even 332 00:17:50,160 --> 00:17:53,479 Speaker 1: though the betting public doesn't get respect, they have a 333 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,520 Speaker 1: tendency of betting a lot of money on some games. 334 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 1: And if that money starts to pile up, these books 335 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 1: are going to move these lines and the action you're seeing, 336 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 1: they're giving numbers like five X and ten x more 337 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: than just twelve months ago. When you're getting that kind 338 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:13,080 Speaker 1: of increase in bondum, they don't even know how to 339 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: handle that, you know, their risk managers they got to 340 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 1: try to figure out how to deal with all that risk. 341 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: So they're moving it quickly, trying to attract money the 342 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: other way and minimize their risk. And what I've seen 343 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: on my side of the screen, because I do provide 344 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 1: these accounts for guys that actually do win long term, 345 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 1: is they're manipulating the market a lot, Jason. And what 346 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 1: I mean is they'll pick books online that they know 347 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 1: everyone's looking at, for instance, exactly, and they know most 348 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: other books move their lines off air. Meaning back when 349 00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 1: I was a runner, I had to walk into the 350 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: mirrage bet a limit bet. They knew who I was, 351 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:00,240 Speaker 1: that I represented an outfit, so they gave me the 352 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,760 Speaker 1: limit and then they moved the line. They didn't look 353 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: on the screen and say, wait, Pinnacle moved it, so 354 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: let's move it before Ace comes in here and bets it. 355 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: They waited to Waste came in and bet it, not 356 00:19:10,920 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: knowing it, you know, knowing it came from sharp guys. 357 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: They don't do that anymore. That's what is the biggest change. 358 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,959 Speaker 1: So now what these groups are doing is simple small 359 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 1: money into accounts that they labeled sharp. Because you're beat 360 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,399 Speaker 1: the closing market for a little bit, you're labeled sharp. 361 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 1: And then all you have to do is bet the 362 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: limit on side A, have them move the line. Every 363 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:42,479 Speaker 1: other book copies all the steam piggybackers jump on board, 364 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: they move it another point or point and a half 365 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: for you, and now half hour before game time, you 366 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,880 Speaker 1: hit all the off screen books, not the ones you're 367 00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: looking at on screen, but the ones all through accounts 368 00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:57,520 Speaker 1: that like guys like me provide and they end up 369 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: betting Team B. And I see it all the time 370 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: where on on Twitter and on social media there's prominent 371 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 1: guys and they're saying the sharps are on Team AY, 372 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: and I'm like, dude, do you have any idea that 373 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 1: they're cheering in the opposite side that what they simply 374 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: did was move Team AY on the screen you're looking at, 375 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: and they're betting five and ten x on Team B 376 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: through books that no one's looking at. So this is 377 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: a heads up that when you see guys with a 378 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: blue check mark and two million followers or whatever the 379 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 1: number is, um, and they say, oh, yeah, the sharp 380 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 1: money is all over. Let's say Carolina this week, you know, 381 00:20:37,440 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: and I gotta be honest, we'll talk about this game. 382 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 1: I see money coming in on Caroline. I don't get it. 383 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: I have no idea what they're seeing. It comes down 384 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:45,840 Speaker 1: I saw three earlier time. I'm like, this has to 385 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,720 Speaker 1: be a setup. I don't know. The smart money then 386 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: comes in late when they get the line they want 387 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: on the other side, and everybody who loaded up on 388 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: the perceived sharp side gets destroyed exactly, and and it 389 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,920 Speaker 1: happens more today than it needs and did back then. 390 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 1: Back when I got into the game, the manipulation was simple. 391 00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,600 Speaker 1: It was more with injuries and things like that, where 392 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: these groups actually would take care of these line services 393 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 1: to hold back an injury. So let's say we found 394 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 1: out Iverson is not gonna play. The line service would 395 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: hit us all and say, listen, Iverson's not playing tonight. 396 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 1: He won't be in the lineup. You have two minutes. 397 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 1: So we had a two minute window to bet before 398 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 1: they sent it out that Iverson is not gonna play, 399 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: because once it goes out, oh, the SUF line is 400 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 1: gonna move, you know, six points would have you. It's 401 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,800 Speaker 1: like finding out, you know, Tom Brady is not gonna play. 402 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 1: That was the manipulation that was happening then, Not sending 403 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:48,720 Speaker 1: out weather reports, not sending out injury reports. It was 404 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,240 Speaker 1: more like that. And we didn't have you didn't have 405 00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,920 Speaker 1: the outs to manipulate. Back then, it was hard enough 406 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 1: to get down. So if you found a bookie that 407 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: would pay you, you couldn't. You don't want to manipulate him. 408 00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: You wanted to use it to actually bet your best 409 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:04,159 Speaker 1: stuff with because he was gonna pay you. Because the 410 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: problem with most sharks is you get stiffed. You know, 411 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,000 Speaker 1: most books use that excuse. I told you I don't 412 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 1: I don't book sharp action. I don't want sharp action. 413 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:14,160 Speaker 1: I don't want your money. All right, So let's look 414 00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: at week for you know, the average listen around there 415 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: is gambling not as plugged in as you, hasn't been 416 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: around as long and sees for instance, Oh, I don't know. 417 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 1: Let's go with Tampa Bay was seven and a half 418 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: at home against Justin Herbert, making his first road start. 419 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 1: Early money comes in seven and a half, down to seven, 420 00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 1: sitting on seven, I see it seemed to think the 421 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: right side here is Tampa Bay that I could be wrong. 422 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,879 Speaker 1: Go ahead, make the kicks. Do you see Sunday? You 423 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,439 Speaker 1: know what is it? Twelve thirty before kickoff? This is 424 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 1: their early one o'clock star on the East coast. Are 425 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 1: we gonna see this tick up seven and a half? No, UM, 426 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,959 Speaker 1: maybe at the squares books, because I can tell you 427 00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: what Certainty Chargers plus seven and a half got was 428 00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 1: a hit at seven and a half. Just like the 429 00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 1: younger we bet under forty five. We've been under forty 430 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 1: four the unders as a handful of unders we bet 431 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:08,159 Speaker 1: this week, and we could get that at because of 432 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,919 Speaker 1: the inflated totals um. That was one of the unders 433 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 1: we pounded at, not pounded, but hit at two different 434 00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: numbers forty five, forty four and a half forty four 435 00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 1: actually three different numbers um, but that under, but we 436 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,399 Speaker 1: took the seven and a half. With that said, you 437 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: you could be right, because when it's around a key number, 438 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: they're always picking off those three and a half, always 439 00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 1: picking off those seven and a half, especially when the 440 00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,359 Speaker 1: entire market isn't there, when there's only a couple of 441 00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:39,639 Speaker 1: books that have gone the seven and a half and 442 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 1: others are dealing seven with big You'll see them white 443 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,119 Speaker 1: take off those seven and a half thinking there's a 444 00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:49,159 Speaker 1: probability it gets the six and a half and we 445 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,040 Speaker 1: have ourselves a plus CV possible, maybe a middle um 446 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,959 Speaker 1: or at least you got the best of it in 447 00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 1: your pocket. If a game goes off six and a 448 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 1: half and you got a ticket with seven and a 449 00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 1: half in your pocket, it's not a bed bet the 450 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,639 Speaker 1: half um exactly. So I think it could be a 451 00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,920 Speaker 1: case like that. I wouldn't call you off of poor, 452 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: you off of the Tampa Bay side, especially the way 453 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,919 Speaker 1: you know they're playing, especially on the defensive side of 454 00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,560 Speaker 1: the football, even low scoring, low scoring game, seven's a 455 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,640 Speaker 1: big number. What about a game like say Dallas Cleveland 456 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: that was in the kind of the nebulous five zone. Um, 457 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 1: although I think two weeks ago it lanted on five 458 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: in three games. I think it was week two, which 459 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,399 Speaker 1: is unforeseen. Um, it came down to four and a half, 460 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:34,760 Speaker 1: and now I'm seeing, yeah, it looks like a couple 461 00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 1: of yeah, all four and a half across the board. 462 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 1: Dallas Cleveland is this is set up because supposedly Dallas 463 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 1: is aside the Cleveland secondary shot everybody's hurt. Dallas has 464 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:47,719 Speaker 1: played tougher competition. Any thoughts there. What worries me on 465 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,560 Speaker 1: that game is that the line's not off the six 466 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,680 Speaker 1: right now, it's not higher. Um, it's sharps. We're gonna 467 00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: get out ahead of the market. They would have bet Dallas. 468 00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: I don't see a reason to wait, um, simply because 469 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: the books are gonna need the Cleveland side. Um. There's 470 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 1: a couple of games that are sticking out already for 471 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,719 Speaker 1: sports books, and Thursday gives you a great idea of 472 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,719 Speaker 1: the you know, the Thursday night game. They start tying 473 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:17,040 Speaker 1: into par laying teasing into Sunday games, and I can 474 00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 1: tell you Dallas is one of the popular bets on Sunday. Um, 475 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:27,240 Speaker 1: even though you know Dallas is under performing obviously, Uh 476 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,359 Speaker 1: so they're still gonna be a popular bet. So I 477 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,640 Speaker 1: would think, why aren't they all higher right now? That 478 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,720 Speaker 1: to me is a red flag? What about this? Uh? 479 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,880 Speaker 1: One of the most popular questions I get, Hey, so, 480 00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:42,239 Speaker 1: uh you know, like, how do you read where the 481 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: line is going? Like what's a good uh number for 482 00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 1: eighty percent is on Cincinnati ninety? Like what numbers do 483 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 1: you think or do you think that doesn't even matter. 484 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 1: I've heard people say I don't care if there's a 485 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,080 Speaker 1: lot of exposure here, it doesn't matter to me. The 486 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 1: truth is, I really don't worry what the public does 487 00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:06,000 Speaker 1: is doing because I've done it long enough now to 488 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: realize they're about fifty and if I'm not booking them 489 00:26:10,600 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: getting eleven to ten, you're not gonna make money fading 490 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 1: them like you can't wait and just wait till there's 491 00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 1: nine eight when you see a take account of bait 492 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 1: the two and just fade every time, and and that 493 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: will be a profitable endeavor for you. I've been tried it. 494 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 1: I don't think so, because they they're around fift you 495 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:35,880 Speaker 1: know what I mean. Um, As far as predicting which 496 00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,919 Speaker 1: way the line's gonna go, unless you're an originator that 497 00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,560 Speaker 1: gets the respect to move the lines, it's very difficult 498 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 1: to determine which way it's gonna go because of the 499 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: fact who moves these lines. You know, if it's short 500 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: money that's moving it, you're always gonna be guessing are 501 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,080 Speaker 1: they coming in on the favorite they coming in on 502 00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: the door? The more importantly, is it legit Because a 503 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,399 Speaker 1: lot of the favorites they're simply getting out ahead of 504 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 1: the market, like we've seen in college football all the time. 505 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 1: There was a period where we were betting the first, second, 506 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,239 Speaker 1: third ranked team. As soon as the line went up, 507 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 1: just bet it one to three. They were moving three, 508 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 1: four and five points immediately. You know. It was that 509 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: a season or two where top five teams were you know, 510 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,720 Speaker 1: covering like crazy in Alabama. Yeah, they were, just it 511 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,400 Speaker 1: was simply simply getting out ahead of the market. That's 512 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 1: where it's difficult about trying to predict which way the 513 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,720 Speaker 1: line's gonna move. And it is um one of the 514 00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,639 Speaker 1: keys to betting because you want to bet at the 515 00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,919 Speaker 1: optimum time. That's almost as important as what you're betting 516 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: when you're betting it. All right, let me give you 517 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 1: Colts Bears. This is an interesting one because the Colts 518 00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: have basically beaten nobody there two and a half point 519 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,840 Speaker 1: favorites against undefeated Chicago on the road. Now, I think 520 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 1: the weather could come into question here. I don't know 521 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,280 Speaker 1: if that's why I've seen the total come down a 522 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 1: little bit, but the Colts supposedly of the best defense 523 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: in the league. Any thoughts here on why that white 524 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: why the Bears aren't favored by three at home. I 525 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,360 Speaker 1: think it's that's exactly what you said. It's that Cults 526 00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: defense and more importantly playing a Chicago offense that's not 527 00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 1: very efficient this season. Um again, you if you think contrarian, 528 00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 1: you're thinking, how is an undefeated team catching points at home? 529 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:27,040 Speaker 1: That's Vegas telling us something. But I need to stress this. 530 00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:31,840 Speaker 1: The books don't set traps like that. Is one of 531 00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:36,639 Speaker 1: those things that's overused. Sounds good traps. It does if 532 00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,680 Speaker 1: they they don't know the outcome, Jason, don't they shade 533 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: towards biases, That's what they do. They don't set traps there. 534 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 1: There's so much randomness to a sixty minute football game. 535 00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 1: Is there a bias on Bears Colts? I mean, if anything, 536 00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: the Bears are probably a slightly more public team for sure, 537 00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 1: for sure, And I think that that's why when you 538 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 1: saw it when it got the three, there was some 539 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: take back there, you know. And when it got up 540 00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: to as high as three, you saw some Bears money 541 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 1: come in at plus three. And obviously this early in 542 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,560 Speaker 1: the week, it's sharp's betting it. Now. Again, there's gonna 543 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 1: be a difference of opinion when the line moves around 544 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:18,400 Speaker 1: a key number. I mean there's there's there'll be a 545 00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 1: sharp guy seeing value on Team Ay at a pick them, 546 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 1: it goes to three. Obviously, Team B becomes the side 547 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 1: because the three point moves significant, especially if it's not warranted, 548 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: if it's not injury related, if it's not whether suspension related, 549 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 1: then that's a significant move that most power ratings would 550 00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: reflect the value has changed. And I think that's where 551 00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:45,840 Speaker 1: a lot of recreational betters UM don't approach it that way, 552 00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: meaning they're they're there to bet the team. They're gonna 553 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,720 Speaker 1: bet the Colt And if the culture minus two and 554 00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 1: a half and they drive to the sports book and 555 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: the culture three and a half, they're still gonna bet them. 556 00:29:56,680 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: Where a guy that is using it as an investment vehicle, 557 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 1: he's got it not only not bet the Colts, but 558 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,480 Speaker 1: now he has to sit down and consider do I 559 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: take the other side, but I'm getting the extra point now? 560 00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 1: And I think that's the difference, UM, And that's what 561 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: makes the NFL real difficult again and also why it's 562 00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 1: one of the most efficient markets there is, and they're 563 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,720 Speaker 1: willing to take the bets they are so one of 564 00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 1: the other popular things that people will hear, whether it's TV, podcast, radio, internet, 565 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,959 Speaker 1: is the spot. Okay, So the New Orleans Saints are 566 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: coming off a Island game loss. The Detroit Lions just 567 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,760 Speaker 1: beat the Cardinals, who were undefeated. Oh this spot screams 568 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 1: New Orleans. Um, but I just, for whatever reason, I 569 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: feel like the Lions are the right side to here. 570 00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: This is the Saints team. I don't know if you 571 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,720 Speaker 1: saw the injury report on Thursday. I mean it's pretty bleak, 572 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 1: like a lot of guys hurt, and um, Detroit's got 573 00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: the the the passing gate to take advantage of that 574 00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: Saint secondary that can't stop anybody. I mean Aaron Rodgers 575 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:01,080 Speaker 1: was missing Davante Adams and still rolled up and down 576 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 1: the field on them. I don't know where are you 577 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: on Saints Slions? Yeah, that's wanted to get one of 578 00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: the totals we bet under went under immediately under fifty six, 579 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 1: under fifty five, and Ed fang Um wrote this great 580 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 1: pace about how the totals this season. They're averaging fifty 581 00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 1: one points a game in the NFL. Right now after 582 00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,480 Speaker 1: three weeks, ravaging fifty one points, and yet the average 583 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 1: over unders a little under forty six. It's about five 584 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:33,960 Speaker 1: points off, that's gonna fix itself. That's never the case. 585 00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 1: And a perfect example is last year, where we knew 586 00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 1: scoring was up, they scored close to forty five point 587 00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 1: five points per game average NFL score. The average NFL 588 00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: total Jason was forty five point seven. It was within 589 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,239 Speaker 1: a half a point of the NFL average scoring. Like 590 00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 1: I said, the NFL betting markets very efficient. If you 591 00:31:54,920 --> 00:31:57,160 Speaker 1: go back and look at the last five thousand games, 592 00:31:57,320 --> 00:32:03,719 Speaker 1: you'll get close to favorite twenty five hundred dogs and 593 00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: where when you factor in the big you can't blindly 594 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 1: bet anything in turn of profit. They're that good. Um, 595 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,360 Speaker 1: and I think we're gonna see the regression. And with 596 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:18,120 Speaker 1: the NFL being such a short sample size sport, it 597 00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: happens quicker than most. You know, usually need a big 598 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 1: sample for regression and progression, but in the NFL, for 599 00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,000 Speaker 1: some reason, it happens a lot quicker. And that's why 600 00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 1: we bet a handful of unders this week, and that 601 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 1: was one of them. Um, Saints Detroit under, like I said, 602 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,680 Speaker 1: Chargers Tampa under, New England, KC under. Those are some 603 00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 1: of the scariest totals to go under. At least the 604 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,920 Speaker 1: Saints and and k C in New England, and yet 605 00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 1: that's where you know some of the sharp money is 606 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:50,719 Speaker 1: definitely concentrated this week. Let me ask you about the 607 00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:55,360 Speaker 1: long time idea that you can't bet double digit favorites 608 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: long term and make money. It is just losing proposition. 609 00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:01,240 Speaker 1: The lines are later for a reason. I see two 610 00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,760 Speaker 1: on the board this week, Um, Baltimore and the Rams, 611 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 1: And of course you know both opponents are coming off 612 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,840 Speaker 1: bad losses. Washington five turnovers against Cleveland, the Giants a 613 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: dumpster fire against the Niners. Any thoughts on those games? Like, listen, 614 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: I gotta be honest, I'm in a circuit contest. I'm 615 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,480 Speaker 1: looking hard at Baltimore for some reason, it's only twelve 616 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 1: in the contest. Um, No Chase Young, Who's I don't 617 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,479 Speaker 1: know if he's worth half a point. He's a rookie. 618 00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: But any thoughts on the double digit games. I'm so 619 00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:30,240 Speaker 1: glad you asked that question, because there was a time 620 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 1: where you could do nothing but sleep till noon, get up, 621 00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: look for any double digit home dogs, bet it, and 622 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 1: at the end of the year you've catched around six 623 00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:45,200 Speaker 1: out of ten bets. What happened? The market becomes more efficient. 624 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: I hate sounding like a broken record, and the lines 625 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,760 Speaker 1: get shaded towards those biases of the betters and it 626 00:33:52,960 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 1: no longer works, kind of like West Coast teams going east. 627 00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:02,480 Speaker 1: We're at a disadvantage until the trend became talked about 628 00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 1: and bed on, and once that happens, the market's gonna 629 00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,680 Speaker 1: adjust for that money coming in. And I think we're 630 00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 1: looking at a change the NFL right now because double 631 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 1: digit favorites aren't automatic fades anymore. In fact, over the 632 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,400 Speaker 1: last few seasons, I would bet you made more money 633 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,919 Speaker 1: betting double digit favorites then fading double digit favorites. Now 634 00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:28,640 Speaker 1: as a better you need to say, what, so what 635 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,719 Speaker 1: do I trust? Small sample size, big sample size? I 636 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,279 Speaker 1: think you need to evolve and based on the market conditions, 637 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,839 Speaker 1: like this year's a COVID year, it's gonna be only 638 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,720 Speaker 1: like anything we've ever dealt with. You have to face 639 00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,520 Speaker 1: that you don't have a sample size to rely on, 640 00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,760 Speaker 1: you don't have history to rely on. But you're gonna 641 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,879 Speaker 1: have to evolve like quickly with the market, and we're 642 00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 1: seeing it happen in front of us. And that's where 643 00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,440 Speaker 1: I think with double digit favorites, I don't see a 644 00:34:56,480 --> 00:35:00,000 Speaker 1: reason to automatically bet the dog. Now, I think Baltimore 645 00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 1: is getting a little out of hand laying two touchdowns 646 00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,839 Speaker 1: on the road because they got embarrassed. That to me 647 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:08,640 Speaker 1: is a little bit where it continues to move open. 648 00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,719 Speaker 1: Twelve now fourteen. To me that that seems a little 649 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 1: bit too high. But then I'm a little old school, 650 00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:16,600 Speaker 1: So maybe it's that double digit home dog that that 651 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,880 Speaker 1: just can't get out of my brain, that's embedded in 652 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:22,600 Speaker 1: there somewhere. But the Rams, why can't they beat the 653 00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 1: Giants by three touchdowns? I mean, the Giants are really 654 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 1: really bad. I was on them last week like an idiot. 655 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:30,960 Speaker 1: All right, I'll get you out of here on this one. 656 00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,800 Speaker 1: So the Green Bay Packers right now, uh prolific offense, 657 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,640 Speaker 1: the public all over Aaron Rodgers. They just beat the 658 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 1: Saints seven point favorites with that bad defense and it 659 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: totally and I'll tell you go ahead. I was just wanting, 660 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: you know, I jumped in real quick because this game 661 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 1: is gonna make or possibly break the week for the sports. 662 00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,239 Speaker 1: That's all gonna bring up with teasers and parlay's like 663 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:56,440 Speaker 1: everybody's gonna have the Packers teased down to win the 664 00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:04,600 Speaker 1: game money line tease. If teams like Kansas City, New England, UM, 665 00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:10,200 Speaker 1: Tampa Bay, they seattles. If they win on Sunday, the 666 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 1: exposure is gonna mount. And if so, if you like Atlanta, 667 00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 1: I don't think there's any rush to get to the 668 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,279 Speaker 1: window because if they're gonna try to attract money, you're 669 00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 1: gonna see that hook on the seven easily. Um yeah, 670 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:26,880 Speaker 1: green Bay. Here's the problem with green Bay. Man. We 671 00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 1: came into this season thinking the regressions coming right. All 672 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:34,399 Speaker 1: the smart math guys, all the analytics guys that cover 673 00:36:34,480 --> 00:36:37,560 Speaker 1: the NFL told us this wasn't a thirteen and three 674 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 1: football team. They they they fairly, They got lucky, they 675 00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,080 Speaker 1: were they won close games. They were ain't no on 676 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,200 Speaker 1: games decided by less than a score. That's all randomness. 677 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 1: I guess, Okay, I believe you you're smarter than me. 678 00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 1: But somehow they keep winning, I say otherwise. Right, Yeah, 679 00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 1: that's what I mean. That's the problem that they're continuing 680 00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:03,560 Speaker 1: to cover now they're shading this line. Obviously, they're making 681 00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:05,880 Speaker 1: you pay to back the Green Bay Packers. You're not 682 00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,080 Speaker 1: getting them at any discount. Um, we have I haven't 683 00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:11,120 Speaker 1: bet this game. This isn't a game we I've got 684 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:15,280 Speaker 1: any exposure on so far. Contrarian. I would look to Atlanta, 685 00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,960 Speaker 1: especially if some of those favorites do well. But again, 686 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,319 Speaker 1: you've got to be very selective in the NFL. And 687 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 1: if you think, just because all the public is gonna 688 00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,200 Speaker 1: be on it, that this team is gonna lose, just 689 00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 1: look at last Sunday night. They look at last Monday night. 690 00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,799 Speaker 1: Just look at last week two weeks ago. There are 691 00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:39,160 Speaker 1: a lot of games where there's a huge, one sided 692 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,720 Speaker 1: you know nine, the one ticket count, the line barely moves, 693 00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 1: and those teams still win football games. Like just because 694 00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: everyone likes it and the line hasn't moved significantly doesn't 695 00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 1: guarantee anything, especially since I'm not seeing wise guys grabbing 696 00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,840 Speaker 1: that seven on Atlanta. No one's in a rush to 697 00:37:56,920 --> 00:38:00,360 Speaker 1: grab it. If I said, Ace, you've got I trust 698 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,520 Speaker 1: you so much, I love your content. I'm gonna give 699 00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,840 Speaker 1: you five grand to put on one game. Right now? 700 00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:08,480 Speaker 1: Where are you? No? No over under you gotta you 701 00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 1: gotta get aside eight. I trust you. Here it is, 702 00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 1: here's you. Who's your pick this week? Alright? No? No, 703 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:22,000 Speaker 1: Because I was gonna say Buffalo, but I got Buffalo 704 00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:24,399 Speaker 1: on the money line and their three right now, that's 705 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: the problem, and we I better minus one forty and 706 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,640 Speaker 1: minus one fifty. That's why I I almost don't wanna, 707 00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:34,239 Speaker 1: um what's it called? Use that? Because you know if 708 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:36,960 Speaker 1: they win by a little. So I'm gonna tell you, bro, 709 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 1: New England Patriots plus seven in Kansas City. Um, hey, 710 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,560 Speaker 1: we have the under in that game. So when this if, 711 00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 1: if if we if the wise guys are right with 712 00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 1: the under, score points are at a premium and if 713 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,800 Speaker 1: you're getting seven on a lower scoring game, that's a bonus. 714 00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,880 Speaker 1: That's why I lean there because I have of the 715 00:38:56,920 --> 00:38:58,840 Speaker 1: other ones that we bet. I'll tell you you know, 716 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,799 Speaker 1: I share everything with you. We bet Buffalo money line. 717 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,040 Speaker 1: We bet the Chargers plus seven and a half. We 718 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:07,200 Speaker 1: bet New England plus seven, I bet, we bet Minnesota 719 00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,600 Speaker 1: plus four. We're gonna take Miami when it gets the seven. 720 00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,680 Speaker 1: We bet Cincinnati minus three. Um, those are the sides 721 00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:21,879 Speaker 1: were on Minota, Minnesota, Miami, New England Chargers, Buffalo one two, 722 00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 1: five yees six sides. Now they could go one in 723 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:30,480 Speaker 1: five or five four and the five dimes you're giving me, 724 00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,839 Speaker 1: it'll be on New England I want to sit there 725 00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,800 Speaker 1: at four p m. Eastern where there's only three games 726 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,239 Speaker 1: and that's the attractive one and have it all right. 727 00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,879 Speaker 1: He's good stuff, Ace Corals. You can follow him on Twitter. Uh, 728 00:39:43,960 --> 00:39:46,719 Speaker 1: what's give out your handle? You could you break underscore 729 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,520 Speaker 1: gambler man, check me out anytime. I like sharing information 730 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:53,160 Speaker 1: talking sports week guys, and thanks for having me. I'm 731 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,879 Speaker 1: a fan of yours stuff. You know, obviously your contents everywhere. Man, 732 00:39:56,920 --> 00:39:59,640 Speaker 1: you're blowing up and you deserve it. It's well deserved, 733 00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,120 Speaker 1: says good stuff man, and we'll talk to you soon. 734 00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:06,920 Speaker 1: God bless the only thing better than sitting on your 735 00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:11,239 Speaker 1: couch watching the game. He's making money while you do it. 736 00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:16,160 Speaker 1: Here's your best bet, all right, it's time for the 737 00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,719 Speaker 1: best bets jets. Let me down. The hot streak is over. 738 00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:25,520 Speaker 1: Best bets now at I believe it's twenty five four 739 00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:30,280 Speaker 1: and two. Um, still very productive and I've got three 740 00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,920 Speaker 1: again in the NFL. Went to in one last weekend. 741 00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,000 Speaker 1: This one's a little tougher. Uh, and again we're going 742 00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:40,000 Speaker 1: with Friday morning lines number one, Tampa Bay favor by 743 00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,880 Speaker 1: seven against the l A Chargers. I know it's a 744 00:40:42,920 --> 00:40:45,960 Speaker 1: big number. I don't care, folks. I'm sorry. I'm going 745 00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,040 Speaker 1: with Tampa. I know Ace earlier said that. You know 746 00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:50,680 Speaker 1: they were on the Chargers at seven and a half. 747 00:40:50,760 --> 00:40:54,719 Speaker 1: I like Tampa at seven. This defense does it for me. Um, 748 00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:56,279 Speaker 1: I know that sounds a weird, like a weird thing 749 00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,400 Speaker 1: to say, but M favorites of six or more this 750 00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,920 Speaker 1: season fourteen and seven against the spread. The gap between 751 00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:06,000 Speaker 1: the good and the bad is growing larger. And I 752 00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,680 Speaker 1: considered Tampa to be a very good team undervalued because 753 00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:11,560 Speaker 1: of that defense. And they're gonna have about ten thousand 754 00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,719 Speaker 1: fans in the stadium. I read um their third in 755 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,040 Speaker 1: the league in sacks. This will be the most pass 756 00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:20,400 Speaker 1: rush Justin Herbert has faced. And um, he was a 757 00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,120 Speaker 1: little shaky against Carolina when they pressured him, put up 758 00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,360 Speaker 1: some hollow numbers when they were coming back. But I 759 00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 1: don't trust Herbert going up against the Todd Bowls defense. 760 00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:34,080 Speaker 1: I got Tampa favored by seven. Number two, risky move here. 761 00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,080 Speaker 1: I think I'm going with the Miami Dolphins. Now. This 762 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:40,359 Speaker 1: number has been going bouncing between six and a half 763 00:41:40,360 --> 00:41:41,879 Speaker 1: and seven. I'm telling you right now, if you could 764 00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,600 Speaker 1: get a Miami Dolphins plus seven, just go ahead. And 765 00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:48,320 Speaker 1: take it. Okay. I looked at the Seattle injury report Thursday. 766 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,760 Speaker 1: Of course it's not final. They're missing three starters on defense, 767 00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,880 Speaker 1: including cornerback Quentin Dunbar, safety Jamal Adams, and the rookie linebacker, 768 00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,359 Speaker 1: the Kid Brooks. Okay, this is from a defense that 769 00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:02,960 Speaker 1: has given up the most yards in the league this year, 770 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:07,520 Speaker 1: by a mile and by far, almost passing yards in 771 00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,960 Speaker 1: three weeks. Now. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Patrick Mahomes, but 772 00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,359 Speaker 1: you don't need to be. We already had Fitzpatrick coming 773 00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:15,360 Speaker 1: through the back door two weeks ago against the Bills 774 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,880 Speaker 1: at home. Okay, Seattle to Miami, that's a very I 775 00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,560 Speaker 1: think that's the longest flight in the league in the 776 00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:25,439 Speaker 1: continental United States, and Miami's off extra time having played 777 00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,680 Speaker 1: last Thursday. I just think if you're giving me seven, 778 00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:32,879 Speaker 1: this shapes up as Oh it's Seattle with five minutes left, 779 00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,440 Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick's got the ball and he's coming in the 780 00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,600 Speaker 1: back door and they lose by six. Okay, I could 781 00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,799 Speaker 1: I could see Seattle's defense laying down. I mean, they 782 00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:43,240 Speaker 1: haven't stopped anybody all season. So give me the Dolphins 783 00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,480 Speaker 1: getting seven. I mean I like it at six. And 784 00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:49,000 Speaker 1: a half. Uh, definitely not anything under six and my 785 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,279 Speaker 1: final pick, and again you're gonna be like, Jay, what 786 00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,919 Speaker 1: the hell are you doing? Give me the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, 787 00:42:55,960 --> 00:43:00,000 Speaker 1: the Baltimore Ravens double digit favors. This is super risky 788 00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,600 Speaker 1: and you're not gonna want to play it. I get that. 789 00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:06,239 Speaker 1: I'm currently seeing fourteen. Okay, if you can wait for 790 00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:09,439 Speaker 1: thirteen and a half week, all right, Ravens are gonna 791 00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,920 Speaker 1: be piste off. They got their pants pulled down on 792 00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:16,160 Speaker 1: national television by the Chiefs, and now they face a 793 00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:18,640 Speaker 1: Washington team that just turned the ball over five times 794 00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:22,640 Speaker 1: against Cleveland. Okay, and they come into this game without 795 00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,799 Speaker 1: their rookie star Chase Young and their defensive tackle who's 796 00:43:25,800 --> 00:43:27,799 Speaker 1: out for the season. So you're down two guys on 797 00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:32,000 Speaker 1: the defensive line against the best rushing attack, uh in 798 00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:35,000 Speaker 1: the league. Last year they sputtered against Casey because they 799 00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,400 Speaker 1: fell behind. I know fourteen is a lot. I smell 800 00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,000 Speaker 1: a pick six from Marcus Peters. He's gonna bait Haskins 801 00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:44,800 Speaker 1: into something dumb. And I really do believe the Baltimore 802 00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,400 Speaker 1: run game will just truck for maybe two fifty to 803 00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:50,520 Speaker 1: seventy five yards and the Ravens win something like thirty 804 00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:54,040 Speaker 1: one to ten and they cover fourteen. Now again, I 805 00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:57,080 Speaker 1: don't usually give out double digit favorites. Um, I preach 806 00:43:57,120 --> 00:43:59,879 Speaker 1: against them. Fun number for you. Are you ready since 807 00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:04,680 Speaker 1: seen double digit road favorites? Which is what the Ravens are. 808 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:07,239 Speaker 1: Big road trip to Washington, d C. Which is like 809 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:11,640 Speaker 1: forty five minutes UM sixteen and two against the spread. Again, 810 00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:15,680 Speaker 1: the gap between good teams and bad is fading fast. 811 00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,600 Speaker 1: And even if Washington runs the opening kick back, Okay, 812 00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:20,879 Speaker 1: it's not like the audio the crowd is gonna be loud. 813 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:22,799 Speaker 1: There's no crowd to you, there's not gonna be like 814 00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,279 Speaker 1: a daunting atmosphere, people fired up. It's just like we've 815 00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,640 Speaker 1: got great players, were loaded with Pro Bowl talent, all 816 00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:34,279 Speaker 1: pro stars. You guys have nothing, and Baltimore is just 817 00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:37,000 Speaker 1: gonna beat them into submission. Hardball takes it out on him. 818 00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,840 Speaker 1: Give me the Ravens. So I'm taking Tampa Bay favorite 819 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:44,960 Speaker 1: by seven. I'm getting Miami with seven points and Baltimore 820 00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,719 Speaker 1: favored by fourteen. Everybody, have a great weekend. I'll talk 821 00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:48,360 Speaker 1: to you Monday.