WEBVTT - Office Leasing Won't Recover For Five Yrs: Cushman & Wakefield 0:00:01.400 --> 0:00:04.120 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney. Along 0:00:04.120 --> 0:00:06.240 with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:10.400 we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.600 along with essential market moving news kind the Bloomberg Markets 0:00:13.600 --> 0:00:17.000 Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.160 and on Bloomberg dot com. Well as more and more 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:25.279 people work from home for longer and longer period the 0:00:25.360 --> 0:00:28.880 question is what does that mean for corporate real estate 0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:32.000 office space in some major urban cities. To get a 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.560 sense of kind of the future, here, uh, we welcome 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:38.559 Rebecca Rocky, global head of forecasting for Cushman and Wakefield 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.080 located in New York City. Rebecca, thanks so much for 0:00:41.159 --> 0:00:42.640 joining us. You know, I was in the city a 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:45.640 couple of weeks ago, back in the office for day, 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.159 and you know, I was, you know, kind of shocked 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:52.080 to see the the fewer people on the street, and 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.480 that suggested to me fewer people, uh in the office buildings. 0:00:55.760 --> 0:00:57.640 Give us a sense of kind of where we are 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:01.400 kind of in the global work worse in the office space, 0:01:01.480 --> 0:01:04.839 and how you guys are thinking about it. Sure well, 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:08.760 first of all, thank you so much for having me today. UM. 0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.640 You know, clearly we have a number of things going 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:14.920 on in the office sector, in particular, not the least 0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:18.040 of which is dealing with the damage that's been done 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:20.920 in the economy and the labor market. UM. As it 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:23.680 relates to the return to the office, there are also 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:28.760 a number of trends emerging and most offices are operating 0:01:29.160 --> 0:01:33.000 well below capacity right all over the country and really 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:35.520 in most of the parts of the world. We're seeing 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:39.280 that office utilization is below where it was and in 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:44.320 some cases significantly. UM. And you know, fortunately office companies 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:48.680 have been more resilient when you think about the damage 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:52.360 that's been done to different industries. Office employment has fared 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:57.080 disproportionately better, and there is somewhat of a an ability 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.880 to work remotely, to get through the times, to continue 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:04.040 to work, just not in the office right now. So 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:07.840 that's really what we're seeing take place, and are some 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:11.080 of the things that we talk about in this report. Yeah, Rebecca, 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:14.120 you did a global office impact study and found that 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:19.760 office leasing will stay below pre COVID levels until twenty five, which, 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:21.800 when you think about it, sort of makes sense. What 0:02:21.960 --> 0:02:24.720 does that mean for the likes of Cashman and Wakefield 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:28.240 and others like you. Well, I think it was a 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:31.760 lot of opportunity to add value to our clients and 0:02:31.840 --> 0:02:36.160 helping them think about this new world that we're facing. Right. So, 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:39.520 we believe that the office is a critical part of 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:44.160 how companies do business, how they create value in particular, 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:49.080 and so we fundamentally think there's intrinsic value to the 0:02:49.160 --> 0:02:52.440 office place. Really, the question is what are the kinds 0:02:52.440 --> 0:02:55.160 of things we're doing in the office and how does 0:02:55.320 --> 0:02:59.200 behavior change from a leasing perspective as we go into 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:02.520 this new normal. Um. The fact that we're finding that 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:07.000 despite some of the structural changes we anticipate, such as 0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:11.120 work from home to emerge, that the office sector does 0:03:11.200 --> 0:03:13.960 recover from a demand perspective, to me was a really 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:18.000 strong finding and indicative of the fact that many companies 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:22.240 view office as part of the broader ecosystem that will 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.680 allow them to achieve the goals that they have as company. 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:27.919 But it's interesting, you know, we've we've heard a lot 0:03:27.919 --> 0:03:31.880 of corporate leaders in New York City calling for companies 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:35.560 that bring their employers back, open up the city again. 0:03:36.200 --> 0:03:39.520 Yet it just seems like, you know, just the people 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:43.000 I talked to, they say Okay, maybe I'll go back 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.360 into the city, but it ain't gonna be five days 0:03:45.400 --> 0:03:48.360 a week. This work at home from thing works just fine. 0:03:48.800 --> 0:03:50.880 So is it going to be a sense that there 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:55.760 will be some permanent change. Absolutely absolutely. And you know, 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.000 in the right now we're in what I call the 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.160 adrenaline Russias COVID nineteen right, so we're dealing with competing 0:04:02.240 --> 0:04:05.520 forces of trying to figure out what's going on with 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.600 schools and folks who need to maybe take care of 0:04:08.640 --> 0:04:11.720 their their parents. Right. A huge concern is I need 0:04:11.760 --> 0:04:14.600 to go take um groceries on the weekend and I 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.440 don't want to be exposed and put purt risk. So 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.120 we have a lot of that going on. And this 0:04:20.160 --> 0:04:23.880 report really looked at different scenarios where we do find 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:27.040 ourselves in a post COVID world, defined as a world 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:30.480 where we have a medical solution such that we can 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.960 really subside in terms of the level of fear of 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:38.120 the virus. But to your point, we absolutely believe there 0:04:38.160 --> 0:04:41.440 will be long term changes and a majority of those 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:44.760 are in the evolution of what we call agile working 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:48.360 or part time at home, part time in third places, 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:51.760 and part time in the office. We we think a 0:04:51.839 --> 0:04:55.240 minority of the folks who work from home will ultimately 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:58.679 be permanently there. Most people want to be in the office. 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:00.960 Most people want to be in the office a few 0:05:01.040 --> 0:05:04.240 days a week. So it's really that evolution that we 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:07.479 expect to be long lasting in nature, and which we 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.680 tried to quantify in this report. Here are two statistics 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:13.520 that really jumped out at me. Rebecca, US office vacancy 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:17.080 is expected to rise steadily and peak at seventeen point 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.880 six percent. But get this by mid twenty two, so 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:24.239 not even next year, but presumably well after we already 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:27.440 have a vaccine. And you also found that asking rents 0:05:27.440 --> 0:05:31.040 are expected to decline by nine point three peak to twelve. First, 0:05:31.240 --> 0:05:33.240 that doesn't seem like that big of a decline if 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:36.479 we're looking at nearly a fifth of office space going 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.880 away until mid two. Are these in the major urban 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:44.760 centers and so on? Sure? Well, I think from the 0:05:44.839 --> 0:05:48.400 vacancy rate perspective, it's important to note that we were 0:05:48.440 --> 0:05:51.520 really at a low point for the cycle at just 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:55.680 under thirteen percent, So the increase is really relative to 0:05:55.920 --> 0:06:00.280 that which was consistent with prior sort of peas of 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:03.480 expansions in terms of the pre COVID level of vacancy. 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:08.320 So we are expecting this shift upwards by about four 0:06:08.440 --> 0:06:12.479 hundred fifty four HERD sixty basis points. And that's really 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:16.239 that is the increase that is putting the downward pressure 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:21.280 on rental rates um so that that effect is something 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.040 that we expect to play out differently across cities. One 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.479 of the things we do find is that, and this 0:06:27.640 --> 0:06:31.840 is consistent with history as well, suburban market the rents 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:35.359 there be less elastic, they tend to move less during 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:39.640 down cycles, and our our city central city rents do 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:41.640 tend to move by a little bit more in our 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.200 findings were consistent with that as well. Rebecca, thank you. 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:47.960 Presumably there'll be more studies like this and we will 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:49.680 continue to keep in touch with you and here more. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:54.200 Rebecca Rocky is Global ahead of Forecasting for Kushman and Wakefield, 0:06:54.440 --> 0:07:00.040 joining us today. As we approach the elections, there's in 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:01.760 the plomban discussion on the Wall Street don't what a 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:07.320 possible Joe Biden presidency would mean for economic policy for 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:10.240 financial markets. To get some answers to those questions, we 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.840 welcome Edmund Phelps. Edmund is a Nobel laureate and director 0:07:13.920 --> 0:07:17.200 of the Center on Capitalism in Society at Columbia University, 0:07:17.200 --> 0:07:19.600 Professor Phelps, Thanks so much for joining us. What do 0:07:19.680 --> 0:07:23.160 you What are your thoughts here? Should former Vice President 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:26.880 Joe Biden win the election, Well, certainly hope you will 0:07:26.880 --> 0:07:30.920 win the election. I think the economy really depends on it. 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:36.160 I've just been um very disturbed over over these past 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:42.560 years to see uh Trump's attempts to to guide to 0:07:42.560 --> 0:07:47.160 guide the economy, to intervene right and left. This creates 0:07:47.400 --> 0:07:53.160 enormous uncertainty. That's very bad for investment, and it's very 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:58.840 bad for innovation. And innovation has already been suffering for 0:07:58.920 --> 0:08:03.480 quite a few decades. But with innovators won't get a 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:08.160 chance to breathe. So I think I think it's very 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:15.480 important that we vote out the Trump administration and give 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:18.600 a new group a chance. So that I first saw 0:08:18.800 --> 0:08:22.080 your article in The Guardian, the editorial and the Guardian 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.720 and then later on a sort of a paper almost 0:08:25.720 --> 0:08:28.080 if you like, in Project to Syndicate, and you basically 0:08:28.280 --> 0:08:34.880 start off by excoriating President Trump's policy, you know, quote 0:08:34.920 --> 0:08:38.560 unquote economic policy, because, as you say, he practices Mussolini's 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:41.840 doctrine of corporatism, the government as poppet master pulling the 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:45.040 strings of poppet companies. You also go on to talk 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:47.920 about as populist rhetoric not translating into better pay for 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:51.800 less advantage workers or victims of discrimination. And you have 0:08:51.800 --> 0:08:55.440 a whole sort of takedown of President's Trump's economic plans 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:59.640 or actions. But why aren't we hearing more from Biden 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.080 about what he would do? So, yes, we know that 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:04.680 he's offering pell grounds to everybody and so on, but 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:08.920 we're not getting a really developed economic platform as far 0:09:09.000 --> 0:09:16.200 as I can see. Well, I think that Biden has 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:21.840 h shown an interest in, um doing something about the 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.720 wages at the bottom in this country, which have been 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:30.240 a have continued to be a terrible problem for decades. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:35.080 I think I think he has shown interest in addressing 0:09:35.440 --> 0:09:40.679 the poor, core rewards going to to the least advantage 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:45.200 in the country. And um, I think maybe your question 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:49.360 is pointed to what do we hear from Biden about 0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:54.000 investment and innovation? Well, I think I think he's I 0:09:54.040 --> 0:10:00.920 think he's shown some definitely shown some awareness of the 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:06.840 need for picking up innovation. And of course, in the 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:11.400 long term, you can't have sustained high investment if you 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:16.760 don't have underlying innovation going on. So I think it's 0:10:16.800 --> 0:10:21.560 fair to say that Biden grown up in his his 0:10:21.800 --> 0:10:25.520 seventy something years. He's grown up in the economy, and 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:29.080 he understands what's going on. He understands the weakness of 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:33.880 the economy, he understand slow growth, and uh, you know, 0:10:34.160 --> 0:10:35.960 there have been a hundred things that he's had to 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:40.240 talk about, and maybe he's not not talked enough about 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:47.080 investment innovation, but he has done some talking on economic justice, 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:51.560 which is the other grand theme of mine. Yes, and 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.560 I understand that, and I appreciate that you say that 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:57.280 he displays an awareness. But the month has been a 0:10:57.280 --> 0:11:02.560 politician his entire life, and surely he has ideas for 0:11:02.640 --> 0:11:06.160 what he would do to redirect funds in the economy, 0:11:06.679 --> 0:11:09.679 and not just on the corporate innovation side, but also, 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:15.320 as you say, to translate you know, current politics in 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:19.199 the situation into better pay for less advantage workers, victims, discrimination, 0:11:19.559 --> 0:11:23.800 erase economic justice injustices and so on. He's not coming 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.080 out with any of that. Is he too scared that 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:31.240 that will alienate some of the demographics that he might need. Uh, 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:35.319 I'm not a politician. I'm not even a political scientist. 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.600 I really wouldn't venture. I wouldn't want to venture a 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:41.800 guest on that at all. All right, So so Edmund, 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:43.720 give us the thoughts just real quickly here. On trade, 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.000 that's been a big issue for President Trump. How do 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:50.079 you see a Biden prenency as it relates to economic trade? Oh? Well, 0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:53.840 I think it. The Trump's position towards trade has been 0:11:54.800 --> 0:12:01.160 another contributor to um poor economic performance. Being able to 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:04.479 trade with the rest of the world is awfully helpful 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:11.600 in developing new products, in finding markets for new investment. 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:17.640 It's hard to imagine high prosperity in the American economy 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:23.680 without without very considerable amounts of international trade, foreign trade. 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.720 And of course another thing is that Trump has gotten 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:33.360 in the way of bringing in highly qualified people to 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:40.240 engage in uh innovation in the American economy. Silicon Valley 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:45.560 is being starved of of the of of much of 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:50.360 the talent that it needs. UM. I saw the other 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:56.040 day that about trade and immigration, I saw that three 0:12:56.120 --> 0:13:01.280 thousand companies are now suing the White House over the 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:07.640 tariffs that have been instituted by the Trump administration. So 0:13:07.880 --> 0:13:13.079 that just that just is an indication of how oppressive 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:19.840 and how retarding uh Trump's influence has been on the economy. Well, professor, 0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.559 thank you for that. We definitely hope to hear more 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:25.760 from Joe Biden. Of course, the first debate is next Tuesday, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.360 and I imagine that there will be a portion on 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:32.040 economic plans and for anybody who's interested in this, the 0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:36.840 economic case for Biden by Professor edmund S. Phelps, Nobel 0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:40.680 Laureate and of course from Columbia University as well, Legended 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:45.120 Our Lifetimes really is both on Project Syndicate and in 0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.600 the Guardian and Paul, I think it's important. I think 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.200 we need some details. Were fewer than fourty days away 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.400 from the selection, and both candidates need to step it 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:57.080 up with the actual concrete proposals. Well, Vonnie, we are 0:13:57.120 --> 0:13:59.679 so fortunate to have on a regular basis of good 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.720 folks of Johns Hopkins University come on and help us 0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:07.640 get a little bit smarter about this virus and potential therapy, 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.719 potential vaccines. Today we're joined by Lauren Sauer at the 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:14.920 Assistant Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins University. H Lauren, 0:14:14.920 --> 0:14:17.000 thanks so much for joining us here. You know, the 0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.480 new story I guess I heard today is something called 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.040 interfere on as a possible new treatment. To educate us 0:14:24.040 --> 0:14:27.920 on kind of what you think this might mean. Yeah, 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.720 the two studies that came out recently on interfere on, 0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:34.040 we're really exciting to see. And I think, um, what 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:36.960 I had seen, what I've seen briefly is that this 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.480 may The scientists who did the studies feel that this 0:14:40.600 --> 0:14:44.680 may um account for nearly fifteen fourteen or fifteen percent 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:49.600 of the severe COVID cases. Um. What they're seeing is 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.000 that this sort of lack of interfere on and the 0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:55.640 body is helping to facilitate severe disease. So people are 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:59.400 getting sicker. Um. The good thing about it is that 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:04.080 we have used interference, especially synthetic interference, for a long 0:15:04.120 --> 0:15:07.160 time for other diseases, and so UM, if we can 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:09.480 target these at risk patients and use some of this 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:12.600 research to identify them early, um, we may be able 0:15:12.600 --> 0:15:15.520 to treat them quickly with therapies that we already have 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:19.800 in our tool kit for other diseases. And it's particularly 0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.840 amazing if it ends up being all true and the 0:15:22.880 --> 0:15:25.960 research proves itself out, because it's the type of thing 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:28.880 that hits young people. And also it means that it 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.320 might save you from going on respirator, which we all know. 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.640 Then you know, it is a whole other stage in 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.760 this illness. When might we know something about the effectiveness 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:43.160 of of an interfere on you know, rehabilitation scheme if 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:47.560 you like. Yeah, so, and the studies that came out 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.160 are already telling us that interfe treatment may be an 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:54.280 effective option. UM. The new arm of the NIH Adaptive 0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:57.520 Trial Act is also an interfere on study. And I 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:01.000 would imagine that there's lots of interfere on UM studies 0:16:01.320 --> 0:16:05.240 across the country and possibly across the globe. UM, there's 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:09.320 I'm just too doing interfere on specific studies, especially when 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:12.480 you're thinking these studies may target or only enroll people 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:16.880 with severe disease. UM. We are seeing more outpatients with 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:21.200 COVID and peer severe disease at least where I am UM, 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:26.320 and so focusing on enrolling those patients into the clinical 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.520 trials quickly and efficiently, both to hopefully save lives but 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:34.520 also to really better understand the mechanism is critical right now. So, Lauren, 0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.600 it appears the data remains stupornly high in terms of 0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:44.560 new cases. UM, yet perhaps the death rate is declining. 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.040 Is that kind of your understanding some of the data 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:51.160 we're starting to see more recently. Yeah. I think one 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.120 of the things we're seeing is that, UM, we're we 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:58.840 are getting patients out of the hospital quicker, which is great, UM, 0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.120 and that may be I think we're gonna need a 0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:04.520 lot of long term studies to understand why that's happening. 0:17:04.640 --> 0:17:06.760 But a big piece of it maybe that we're getting 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.160 better at managing these patients because we're learning more about 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.760 the course of illness and the course of disease. So UM, 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:15.480 we're keeping people from entering into that severe disease state, 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.840 you know, off of ventilator, UM, off of those high 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.879 flow oxygen needs, because we're managing their earlier or or 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:25.960 we're identifying them earlier and we're managing them better in 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:30.119 the hospital and getting them not quicker. So, Lauren, we 0:17:30.119 --> 0:17:34.199 were talking yesterday about people in the UK proactively getting 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:38.040 injected or or infected with coronavirus in order to try 0:17:38.119 --> 0:17:41.760 and help studies these people, I mean, are they risking 0:17:41.840 --> 0:17:46.959 long term consequences? I think they absolutely are. The challenge 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:50.359 study model that UM talking about that we're seeing in 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:53.080 the UK. UM is a model that we've used in 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:57.199 other diseases to better understand UM how vaccines work, so 0:17:57.240 --> 0:18:00.480 that it's a controlled environment and we understand the exposure, 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.960 We understand the course of the disease and exactly where 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:07.080 in the disease process of patients or the participants get 0:18:07.160 --> 0:18:11.359 the vaccine UM and what their exposure level is after 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:16.080 getting the vaccine. The hard part in this situation is 0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.679 that we don't have a really good therapeutic toolkit, so 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:23.680 if something goes wrong with these patients UM, we don't 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:28.840 have a great a series of great options to treat them, 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:31.080 so that that is a higher risk than than you 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:35.120 would want in a challenge study. And there's a lot 0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.960 of ongoing community transmission in many places across the globe, 0:18:39.640 --> 0:18:43.119 so there are opportunities to do vaccine trials the right 0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:47.280 way in a well controlled environment, understanding community transmission without 0:18:47.320 --> 0:18:51.080 putting people deliberately at risk and exposing them to to 0:18:51.240 --> 0:18:55.280 the coronavirus. So it's a risk that we're taking unnecessarily. 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:58.960 So Lauren, again I'm just going to ask us to 0:18:59.000 --> 0:19:01.919 try to triangulate around timing. Is it still fair to 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.400 suspect that we will that some series of vaccines will 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:08.320 be available sometime early next year, maybe late this year, 0:19:08.640 --> 0:19:10.199 but it will take time after that to kind of 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:12.280 figure out what's most effective. Is that's still the way 0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.840 to think about it. Yeah, I think that early next 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.560 year is probably on target for a few of these vaccines. UM. 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.360 We're seeing the Phase three trials happen right now, We're 0:19:22.359 --> 0:19:25.240 seeing good data come in. I think the challenges that 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.480 scale up piece so UM. Once a vaccine can it 0:19:28.560 --> 0:19:31.360 goes through the process, we still have the regulatory environment 0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:34.760 for getting that approval from the FDA. For example. UM. 0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:37.880 There is discussion of you of using the Emergency used 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:42.760 authorization in the interim space between UM or preliminary data 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:45.919 from the Phase three trials and getting approval from the 0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.439 UM for the vaccine to roll out more broadly. But 0:19:49.480 --> 0:19:53.360 we also have to consider scale up of manufacturing, distribution plans, 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:56.720 prioritizing the people who will receive it, what are the 0:19:56.760 --> 0:20:00.720 most important populations UM, And so there's a lot of 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:02.879 things that have to happen between now and a massive 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.000 rollout of the vaccine trial. And I think mid to 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:08.760 late and mid to the end of next year is 0:20:08.800 --> 0:20:12.160 probably reasonable for large scale rollout. Lawrence, thank you as 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:15.800 always absolutely love getting your updates straight from you know, 0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:18.840 the epicenter of where all the research is happening. Lawrence 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:22.040 Hower is the system Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns 0:20:22.040 --> 0:20:25.000 Hopkins School of Medicine and of course the Bloomberg School 0:20:25.000 --> 0:20:27.119 of Public Health. Is supported by MICHAELAR Bloomberg, founder of 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:32.800 Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies and Bloomberg Markets. Is brought 0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:36.480 team by with him forward thinking advisory and accounting firm 0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:38.600 helping hiens to be in a position of strength and 0:20:38.680 --> 0:20:42.159 the new reality of business learn about their innovative solutions 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:46.399 by visiting with them dot com. So it's time to 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:50.160 talk commodities. Some are seeing good news, some are not 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:52.360 seeing so much good news. Let's bring in Mike McGlone, 0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:55.359 who knows all about the precious metals and also precious 0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.080 metals and every other commodity out there. He's commodity strategist 0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:01.120 for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mike, we haven't talked too much about 0:21:01.160 --> 0:21:04.760 China recently, mainly because apart from TikTok and ouricle and 0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:08.119 so on, there haven't been many trade developments. But at 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:12.600 the same time, underlying commodities are moving still because of this. 0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:16.119 For example, China went on a buying spree and so 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:19.480 that seems to have revived export profits for some top 0:21:19.520 --> 0:21:22.400 crop traders. So that's good news, right, Are we seeing 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:25.760 prices reflect that? Oh? Certainly in soybeans tiganium, Yes, so 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:27.399 I means that ten dollars a bush, so they're up 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:29.600 about five percent in the year they got about ten thirty. 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:32.719 That's been a good sign. It's almost completely on exports 0:21:32.720 --> 0:21:35.040 because it's a big crop this year, not really swabeans, 0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:37.119 but corn, so that's a big deal. And also the 0:21:37.119 --> 0:21:39.879 market's anticipating the potential peak in the dollar, and the 0:21:39.960 --> 0:21:43.879 US now exports about swabeans, so the value of the dollar, 0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:46.200 the value of the Brazilian real is a big thing. 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:48.040 Just the fact that the China has been back in 0:21:48.080 --> 0:21:51.560 has been good in crops, it's really better take taking 0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:54.280 them off the bottom. But for new highs to really 0:21:54.280 --> 0:21:58.200 go up for more strength, eggs need a peak dollar, 0:22:00.080 --> 0:22:02.440 all right. So but also look at the dollar index 0:22:02.480 --> 0:22:05.199 here at ninety four. That's not peaked. Dollar isn't no 0:22:05.400 --> 0:22:07.800 hit all um, And it's really and from from the 0:22:07.800 --> 0:22:10.320 egg standpoint, we watched the trade weighted broad dollar because 0:22:10.359 --> 0:22:13.960 the dollar index is six almost two thirds Euro trade 0:22:13.960 --> 0:22:17.440 weighted broad is mostly China's China. It doesn't take every day, 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:19.760 but gives you a good indication. The key thing is 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:22.160 what's been really driving that strong dollar the last ten 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:25.240 years ago, so is the out performance the US stock market. 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:27.560 So we're seeing lately is a bit of a divergence. 0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:31.159 There's been flows into commanities. Commanies are outperforming during this 0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:33.960 last little sloon correction in the stock markets. The key 0:22:34.040 --> 0:22:36.480 is Greggs and Eggs aren't really going to really matter 0:22:36.520 --> 0:22:38.440 to the stock market so much. But in copper, that's 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:40.119 been a key thing I've been watching. Copper is the 0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:42.760 highest correlation to the stock market ever in a fifty 0:22:42.760 --> 0:22:45.600 two weeks twelve one basis and it's really not and 0:22:45.640 --> 0:22:48.520 it's still hanging around three dollars a pound versus the 0:22:48.520 --> 0:22:50.879 ten percent correction in nansect. That's a good sign that 0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:53.080 maybe we're seeing some divergence. I think people are looking 0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:56.720 more for the physical assets, not just gold, silver, platinum plate, 0:22:56.800 --> 0:22:59.439 and not just sup precious but more the base metals 0:22:59.480 --> 0:23:01.439 like copper. Well, I was going to say, with the 0:23:01.480 --> 0:23:04.000 exception actually of gold, which seems to really have just 0:23:04.200 --> 0:23:06.320 gone and got its cold and left the room, right Mike. 0:23:08.320 --> 0:23:10.840 In the short term, gold still up in the year. 0:23:10.840 --> 0:23:15.040 In the unchanged Bitcoin is up in there. So my 0:23:15.160 --> 0:23:17.639 bias at the beginning here was the quasi currencies gold 0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:20.119 and bitcoin should continue to outperform. I don't see why 0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:22.560 I should change that. The gold just got a little 0:23:22.600 --> 0:23:25.160 bit extended. You know, it was fifty it was well 0:23:25.160 --> 0:23:27.040 above is fifty two eight me and the highest and 0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:29.960 a long time. It's it's it's consolidating the bull market 0:23:30.000 --> 0:23:31.480 that way I see it. Right now. It's going to 0:23:31.560 --> 0:23:33.640 back up in the good sport around eighteen hundred dollars 0:23:33.680 --> 0:23:35.560 and ounced. But if you look at the foundation for 0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:39.040 gold rapidly rise in US debt to the GDP and 0:23:39.160 --> 0:23:42.200 increase in CHEWI on a global SCS scale, it's unprecedented 0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:44.760 goal has a very solid foundation for the next five 0:23:44.760 --> 0:23:48.480 ten years. And just help us revisit the bull case 0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:52.159 for bitcoin. We can talk bitcoin. Vannie doesn't have a 0:23:52.200 --> 0:23:56.080 no bitcoin policy like Tom peen Um. So give us 0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:59.800 that bull case for bitcoin again, Mike. Bottom line very 0:24:00.040 --> 0:24:03.760 and supply actually less potentially less supply than gold. Higher 0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:06.200