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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p joe Pizerpia and

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Speaker 1: today we're gonna take a look ahead and our favorite

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Speaker 1: sides and lines for week eleven in the NFL. We're

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Speaker 1: just a week away from the chaos that is Thanksgiving.

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Speaker 1: But before we get to all that, just keep an

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Speaker 1: eye out because next week the schedule is gonna be

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Speaker 1: a little different. We're gonna do all kinds of shows here.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do a little special Thanksgiving episode next week.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be super fun. We want you to be

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Speaker 1: a part of it, So make sure you subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the channel right here on YouTube Betting Pros Ring that

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Speaker 1: Bell to let Coast Ding, And if you leave a

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Speaker 1: comment below when you do all those things, you just

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Speaker 1: might win a one year free premium upgrade to Betting Pros,

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Speaker 1: the best betting tools on the planet. So go ahead, subscribe,

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Speaker 1: Ring the Bell, drop the comment, do what you do,

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Speaker 1: Tell me what your favorite picks are. I want to know,

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Speaker 1: we want to hear from you, and of course to

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Speaker 1: help me pick these games. This week is of course

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Speaker 1: our boy Andrew Erickson back again. Ready to go, and

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Speaker 1: our good old friend from Sports Grid. My dude, probably

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Speaker 1: one of the better jos that I know, and that's

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Speaker 1: saying a lot because we have a fraternity going. Joe

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Speaker 1: Lacy is back from Sports Grid, and you look very

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Speaker 1: stylish today. I gotta say, like, this is I don't

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Speaker 1: know if it's a little bit more sopranos are a

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Speaker 1: little bit more like you own a place in little

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Speaker 1: Italy where it is I got to hang out with you.

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Speaker 2: Holiday season, Thanksgiving on the horizon, the Italian knits and

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Speaker 2: week number eleven of the NFL. What better way to

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Speaker 2: break it down?

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Speaker 3: Right?

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, if I wear that shirt, they

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Speaker 1: just send me straight to witness protection with my face

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Speaker 1: like it is no fun fact. My dad tried to

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Speaker 1: name me Bruno, but my mother wasn't having it. Ericson,

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Speaker 1: do I look like a Bruno to you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So hesitation there, none, Sonny, Sonny, Yeah, I get to yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I look I love that. Ericson had zero chill,

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Speaker 1: no hesitation on that one. Gentlemen, Let's get to the

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Speaker 1: games this week. Clearly a lot of fun ones going on,

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Speaker 1: so I want to get your take. Joe, You're our guest,

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Speaker 1: So you get to kick us off here. First, let's

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Speaker 1: go and talk a little bit of Vegas, because I

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Speaker 1: think that's what you got lined up for us in

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Speaker 1: week eleven.

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Speaker 3: First, yeah, I like Las Vegas here.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's crazy, But Antonio Pierce guys, to me

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Speaker 2: is building a culture. I know it's a potential step

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Speaker 2: up spot. But for me, when you get back to

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Speaker 2: back wins, and I'll be it granted against the Giants

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Speaker 2: and Jets, I understand, you know, mediocre offenses, if not

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Speaker 2: well above under average, I understand the sentiment. But catching

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Speaker 2: twelve and a half again, I think is way too much.

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Speaker 2: Josh Jacobs to me, has been very involved in terms

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Speaker 2: of the rushing attack, well over eighty yards against the Giants.

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Speaker 2: He followed up with another solid performance against the Jets

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Speaker 2: on Sunday night, and I'm impressed with the physicality of

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Speaker 2: the front seven. So again, not expecting them to win

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Speaker 2: this ball game catching twelve and a half, but I

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Speaker 2: think they're well within the number. In Miami Saturday afternoon,

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Speaker 2: at a Sunday afternoon, I got college football on the mind.

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Speaker 2: But for me too, here's the other thing. The way

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Speaker 2: they're playing in terms of the offensive defensive lines. That's

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Speaker 2: the weakness of Miami. Every time they have a step

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Speaker 2: of spot, especially on the road Buffalo and Kansas City

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Speaker 2: and Philly, they struggle in the trenches. And that's what

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Speaker 2: to me, Las Vegas has shown over the past couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. That's why I'm taking the Raiders. I think

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Speaker 2: they're within the number this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Guys, I bet this moment when it was eleven and

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Speaker 1: now it's moved up to twelve and a half. And

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Speaker 1: we talked about this on the look Ahead show. My

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Speaker 1: concern with this game, Joe is the Devon h Chan

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Speaker 1: factor coming back for this game, the explosiveness, the time

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Speaker 1: off that they've had to really rest up, because I

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Speaker 1: feel like the Dolphins had a couple of tough losses

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Speaker 1: there started to kind of get checked in terms of

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Speaker 1: where they really are in the pecking word, which I

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Speaker 1: think is a good thing. I think it's good that

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Speaker 1: they measured themselves and found themselves a little wanting and

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Speaker 1: now they're going to have to go back to the

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Speaker 1: drawing board and find another gear if they're going to

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Speaker 1: get to that elite level. I'm with you on Pierce,

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Speaker 1: like I believe in that guy. But I keep coming

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Speaker 1: back to the same thing of those two things, the

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Speaker 1: factor of a chan and then the factor of the rest.

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Speaker 1: And then when you factor in that last peach, which

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Speaker 1: is the rookie quarterback on the road, That's where I struggle.

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Speaker 1: So are you You must be often enough that o'conne

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Speaker 1: can do enough with this offense to at least keep

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Speaker 1: this within that twelve You must.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do. I think he could move the football again.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he's got to go toe to toe

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Speaker 2: with Tua because if Tua jumps out and wattle, and

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Speaker 2: like you mentioned with Ahm coming back, they jump out

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Speaker 2: early fourteen to nothing, lights out, the game is over.

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Speaker 2: What I believe is they could get Miami into a

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Speaker 2: lower scoring game because of the rushing attack and because

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Speaker 2: of their ability to milk the clock. We saw Devonte

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Speaker 2: Adams breakout with over eighty yards in terms of that

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Speaker 2: matchup against one of the best secondaries potentially in the

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Speaker 2: AFC East in terms of Sauce Gardener and the Jets.

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Speaker 2: So if you could get that type of productivity, why

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Speaker 2: can't you get it against the Dolphins. They're not gonna

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Speaker 2: go toe to toe Atua. I think it's just again,

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Speaker 2: let's get this into the fourth quarter, let's be within

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Speaker 2: striking distance, and you want to give me potentially two touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: That's where I'm taking You know, the team that's playing

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Speaker 2: with house money right now. All the pressure on the fish.

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Speaker 1: That's true, a lot of pressure on the fish. Remember that, Ericson,

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Speaker 1: that's just not Italian's talking. It is the holiday season. Ericson.

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Speaker 1: I said something this week in the Best Bets of

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Speaker 1: the Week video that I do every single Tuesday that

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Speaker 1: probably I'll live to regret. I said that I'm confident

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Speaker 1: in the Chargers this week, and you're with the Chargers too,

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Speaker 1: it seems like, but you've got a little bit more

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Speaker 1: I feel like streamlined visions. So let's talk about your

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Speaker 1: vision of the Chargers this week. Because I was just like, now,

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Speaker 1: I know I should never be confident in the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: but this week I am. What do you think about

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Speaker 1: what's going on with them this week?

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Speaker 4: See, the thing is you're confident with the Chargers, just

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Speaker 4: not the higher game. Like by the time we get

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Speaker 4: to the fourth core, that's when we have trust issues

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Speaker 4: with the Chargers. So for me, Chargers, Green Bay Packers,

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Speaker 4: Chargers are on the road. I like the first half

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Speaker 4: spread at minus one and a half. You can actually

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Speaker 4: get this number over on FanDuel. That's where I found

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Speaker 4: the best number. And the reason I bring up just

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Speaker 4: the first half is because that's when you can trust

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Speaker 4: the Chargers. They have been the third highest scoring offense

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Speaker 4: in the first half of games, behind only Dallas in

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Speaker 4: Kansas City, second best first half offense on the road.

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Speaker 4: Green Bay Packers cannot score in the first half of

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Speaker 4: any game. They did last week it was a fluke

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Speaker 4: against Pittsbrick Steelers. Two teams that could never score. They

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Speaker 4: both just jump out to big touchdowns, touchdown drives, madness,

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Speaker 4: not gonna happen again. Lightning doesn't strike twice. Okay, So

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Speaker 4: only the Giants have leading fewer games in the first

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Speaker 4: two quarters than the Packers. Like, I'm just taking Chargers

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Speaker 4: minus one half in the first half, Like, that's what

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Speaker 4: I'm doing because that's where they score. You can trust

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Speaker 4: them there, and then you wipe your hands clean of

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Speaker 4: this game entirely with two teams that are fraudulent and

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Speaker 4: cannot be trusted in the third and fourth quarters of games.

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Speaker 4: So minus one half for the Chargers, who are three

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Speaker 4: point favorites overall in the game. I think this is

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Speaker 4: the way you attack this game. This is my favorite

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Speaker 4: bet on the entire cards. Why I had to talk

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Speaker 4: about it out here first? I three in one of

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Speaker 4: our slack chats, so so excited about him, Like, guys,

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Speaker 4: we need to be on the Chargers first half, like asap.

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Speaker 5: So I love this one. Here there you go.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to a division game here for

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Speaker 1: NFC East rivals. And it's not been a very pretty

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Speaker 1: season for the New York Giants, but the Giants and

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Speaker 1: Commanders are going to lock up this weekend. Joe, you

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Speaker 1: got some feelings about this one. Take me through it.

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Speaker 3: It's just simple.

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Speaker 2: It's you bet Ron Rivera right on games he shouldn't

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Speaker 2: win and games that he should win. You bet against him,

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Speaker 2: simple as that. And let's go back to that game

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Speaker 2: when he was three point favorites and met life, he

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Speaker 2: laid an egg and they lose fourteen to seven.

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Speaker 3: Now I understand it's Tommy DeVito. I get it.

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Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor started that game when they beat him fourteen

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Speaker 2: to seven. And I understand Sam Howell leading the NFL

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Speaker 2: in the NFC in terms of passing yards I get it.

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Speaker 2: Eric the enemy and that offense fluid, I understand, but

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Speaker 2: I still think nine and a half is way too

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Speaker 2: much in a divisional game. I think Brian Dables a

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Speaker 2: much better coach than Rivera. I'm not suggesting potentially DeVito

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Speaker 2: throws for three hundred, but he's got it throw for

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Speaker 2: better than negative nine in thirty six, you know, in

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Speaker 2: terms of back to back weeks, and Saquon might have

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Speaker 2: to run it fifty times. I don't care who's the

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Speaker 2: running back, run it fifty times, get it to the

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Speaker 2: fourth quarter. I cannot take Washington lay in this number.

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Speaker 2: I'm only looking to New York and put it this way.

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Speaker 2: I'm not gonna bet it, but it wouldn't shock me

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Speaker 2: if New York, somehow, some way strikes the upset, because

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Speaker 2: Ronevera is that terrible as a head coach.

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Speaker 1: Taking the shots at Ronnie Reveras is Tommy DeVito in

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Speaker 1: all fairness from what I've seen so far, and I

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Speaker 1: don't like to speak ill of the are people here

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Speaker 1: on the high school? Did you really just go via

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Speaker 1: yup high school?

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Speaker 3: He has to pay in.

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Speaker 1: Baseball something like that. See it's Jersey boys. Don't forgive

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Speaker 1: us Ericson for you know, talking jersey stuff. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's go back to you Ericson for another pick for

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Speaker 1: a week eleven. Here you got Detroit, you got Chicago. Uh,

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Speaker 1: what do you have for the people? This week?

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Speaker 4: I liked over at Ford Field aka the Course Field

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Speaker 4: of the NFL over forty seven and a half points.

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Speaker 4: Look at the Bears what they've done recently, it's in

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Speaker 4: a streak of unders, right, you know, well, they've had

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Speaker 4: a backup quarterback, they've had badgin in their quarterback. And

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Speaker 4: a friendly reminder that when Justin Fields was the quarterback

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Speaker 4: of the Bears five and zero towards the over perfect,

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Speaker 4: all they did was hit the overs in games. So

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Speaker 4: the fact that this game is on the road in

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Speaker 4: Ford Field aka the course Field of the NFL, because

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Speaker 4: in the last thirteen home games the Lions have played

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Speaker 4: average total points as fifty five and a half. Eighty

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Speaker 4: three percent of the games have scored at least fifty

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Speaker 4: one points. I think the Bears right the ship, get

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Speaker 4: back to the overtrain, getting Justin Fields back at quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I think this game shoots out. I don't think that

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Speaker 4: the Lions can be stopped by the Bears.

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Speaker 5: Defense.

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Speaker 4: Even though the Bears defense has been playing better, it's

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Speaker 4: been against much inferior opponents. The Lions fire on all

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Speaker 4: cylinders when they're at home, and I think that Justin

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Speaker 4: Fields being back is going to provide this Bears offensive spark.

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Speaker 4: It needs to keep this game at least competitive and

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Speaker 4: keep it high scoring. So I like the over end

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Speaker 4: the spot.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you can get the forty seven and a half

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Speaker 1: and right now on Betting Pros to see a sugarhouse

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Speaker 1: in a couple of other places. So make sure you're

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Speaker 1: all your bets, sink all your sports books to the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros app, and don't forget also make your picks count.

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Speaker 1: Go join that NFL contest. You don't even have to

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Speaker 1: make wages. You just got to make picks five a week.

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Speaker 1: Join us at betting pros dot com slash NFL Contest today,

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Speaker 1: or if you have the app and I know you do,

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Speaker 1: just go to the community tab and find the NFL Contest.

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Speaker 1: It's not too late to join because we're still doing

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Speaker 1: weekly contest, monthly contests. The grand prize that Jackson Smith

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Speaker 1: the ear so you better get going. But we're doing

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Speaker 1: free swag to our Betting pros and our Fantasy pro shops.

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Speaker 1: We're also doing some really cool stuff here with premium

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Speaker 1: upgrade to Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros again just for

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Speaker 1: picking games. Just picking games.

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Speaker 3: Go do it.

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Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot Com, slash NFL contest. Joe Lacy, let's go

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Speaker 1: back to you for a second here. Let's go with

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Speaker 1: your third pick here. Some changes to the Cleveland quarterback situation.

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Speaker 1: It looks like we're gonna get a little dtr well. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and the story in Thompson Robbins. I don't know how

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Speaker 1: you feel about that, Joe, but let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 2: I like it even better now because now you saw

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Speaker 2: the line movie. We went from what Brown's favored by

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Speaker 2: four to now catching a point and a half in

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Speaker 2: multiple books here in New Jersey. And I understand Dorian

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Speaker 2: Thompson Robinson threw three interceptions in his first start against

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Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens.

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Speaker 3: I get that, but this is a different animal to

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Speaker 3: me right now.

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Speaker 2: I like the way Cleveland can run the football. Last

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Speaker 2: week they rushed for one hundred and seventy eight yards

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Speaker 2: on the ground and held Baltimore to one hundred and

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Speaker 2: six yards in terms of run support. That to me

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Speaker 2: is going to be the matchup. I know Kenny Pickett

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Speaker 2: and I know that that offense got the victory against

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Speaker 2: Green Bay last week. But again in the dog Pound

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Speaker 2: on the road, this is a Miles Garrett game. All

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Speaker 2: I need DTR to do is just don't turn the

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Speaker 2: football over. Playing at home, they are prepared with a

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Speaker 2: week under their belt. This is not like the last

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Speaker 2: time where two hours before the game Dorian Thompson Robinson

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Speaker 2: got the start over Deshaun Watson. I think they're more

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Speaker 2: physical defense. They are opportunities. I think Kenny Pickett has

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Speaker 2: problems attacking that secondary.

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Speaker 3: I think now as Dogs win the ball game out right.

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Speaker 1: Hey man, I gave everybody the Browns out right last

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Speaker 1: week and Jeff Boy talking about skinning my teeth getting

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Speaker 1: that one just got it.

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Speaker 3: Whoo.

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Speaker 1: Thank goodness for the Ravens who just can't close. So, Joe,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you notice or not, but this

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Speaker 1: number in the total in this game has gone down

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Speaker 1: to thirty two and a half on candle me not

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Speaker 1: Kenny on this not getting it. I was like oh,

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Speaker 1: it's good.

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Speaker 3: So low. I was on the steel Rover last week.

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Speaker 2: I got it and they get thirty points in the

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Speaker 2: first half. That number was basically thirty eight and a half,

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Speaker 2: and I thought I altered it all the way up

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Speaker 2: to forty seven and a half, hoping for a killer day,

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Speaker 2: and they stopped dead at forty two.

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Speaker 3: But hey still got the over.

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Speaker 2: It scares me because I think Cleveland will run the football,

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Speaker 2: get it into the fourth quarter, and they'll rely on

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Speaker 2: their defense to pull it out against Pickett.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, just a couple of days ago, this number was

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Speaker 1: where the John Watson dows. I want to say it

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Speaker 1: was thirty six. Yes, they was around there. Two ericson

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Speaker 1: after that chilling number. Let's go back to you for

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Speaker 1: another pick here, because you've got a little law thoughts

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Speaker 1: to your own about the Cleveland Browns this week. So

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Speaker 1: I want to hear them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I love the Browns in this spot.

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Speaker 4: With DTR coming in instead of Walker, I think it's

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Speaker 4: an upgrade for them. You know, people are looking at

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Speaker 4: the DTR box score make oh he sucks. But it's

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Speaker 4: like he didn't know he was starting until two and

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Speaker 4: a half hours before the game started. Like Deshaun Watson

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Speaker 4: was very like, I'm gonna start this game, so like,

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Speaker 4: of course he's a rookie quarterback, doesn't think he's gonna play.

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Speaker 4: He's like, all right, I can kind of leisurely go

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Speaker 4: through my week.

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Speaker 5: Don't need to worry.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, you're here to start against the Ravens. Okay sick.

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Speaker 4: So of course he didn't play well. So let's look

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Speaker 4: at the Browns team. You know, they weren't gonna win

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Speaker 4: this game because of Deshaun Watson. They won all their

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Speaker 4: games because of their defense, Like that's why they're good,

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Speaker 4: and especially at home four and one, it gets to

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Speaker 4: spread at home. The only game of loss at home

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Speaker 4: was the DTR start when he wasn't prepared and didn't

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Speaker 4: know he was going to start the game. So I

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Speaker 4: think the Steelers again, looking at their team specifically, they're

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Speaker 4: so fraudulent, overrated. Mike Tom's signed a soul to the

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Speaker 4: devil so that he can win all these games he's

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Speaker 4: never supposed to win. They're the luckiest team in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: They've been outgained in every single game they've played this year.

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Speaker 4: I cannot back a team like that on the road

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Speaker 4: against in my opinion, the number one defense in the NFL,

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Speaker 4: even if it's a rookie quarterback, because let's be honest,

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Speaker 4: can you pick it, he's playing like a rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 5: So give me dt R, give me the brownies.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's funny. On the money line, you can

330
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Speaker 1: only get minus one ten. That's the best number right

331
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Speaker 1: now in betting pros. So I don't know. I would

332
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Speaker 1: have thought that would have been better at this stage

333
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Speaker 1: of the game. But whatever, we'll take it. We'll run

334
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Speaker 1: with it. You're getting the point five and you're getting

335
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Speaker 1: the UH at minus one ten. You're getting them just

336
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Speaker 1: on the money line at minus one ten. So I

337
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Speaker 1: wonder if there's little wiggle room in the next twenty

338
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Speaker 1: four hours with those numbers and start to as money

339
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Speaker 1: starts to come in on those games. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to another one here, and Joe, this next one

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Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about, I'm in on too. It was

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Speaker 1: in my top ten bets of the week, and I

343
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Speaker 1: can't wait to hear somebody else talk about it because

344
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Speaker 1: maybe you tell people don't believe me, maybe they'll believe you.

345
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Speaker 1: So let's talk about the Tampa Buccaneers because I feel

346
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Speaker 1: like they have a shot to cover this game.

347
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Speaker 3: Yeah plus eleven and a half.

348
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Speaker 2: Remember this rematch it last year where Tom Brady absolutely

349
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Speaker 2: looked like garbage in terms of that bargain, they got

350
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Speaker 2: absolutely abused. I think they were down thirty five to

351
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Speaker 2: nothing headed into the fourth quarter. So again, I just

352
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Speaker 2: like the way Tampa Bay bounced back in a big

353
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Speaker 2: way against Tennessee last week. They confused Will Levis last

354
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Speaker 2: week held them to six points. They took Derrick Henry

355
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Speaker 2: and the rushing attack out made them completely one dimensional.

356
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Speaker 2: They have weapons and Baker Mayfield has shown an ability

357
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Speaker 2: to throw the football over the top. And with Evans

358
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Speaker 2: and Godwin, they don't have to win the game. I

359
00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,760
Speaker 2: think if it gets into the high thirties in this matchup,

360
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Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is built to come from behind them, maybe

361
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Speaker 2: back with this number. I understand Purdy put up two

362
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Speaker 2: ninety six last week, but I'm gonna roll with Baker again.

363
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Speaker 2: Another team playing with house money, Todd Bowles defensive minded

364
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Speaker 2: head coach, get it into the fourth quarter even if

365
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Speaker 2: they're down like seventeen, the way Arizona was you know

366
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Speaker 2: earlier in the year, Baker could bring them back just

367
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Speaker 2: the way he did against Buffalo, So eleven and a

368
00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:05,040
Speaker 2: half is way too much for me.

369
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Speaker 3: Give me the Bucks.

370
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Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more. And two weeks ago they hung

371
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Speaker 1: in that shootout with the Houston Texans, back and forth.

372
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Speaker 1: So Baker Mayfield, for all of his flaws, has really

373
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Speaker 1: found a way I think to re energize this offense

374
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Speaker 1: a little Bit's still gonna make mistakes, make no mistake, Joe,

375
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Speaker 1: and I aren't going to say in the Tampa Bay

376
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Speaker 1: Buccaneers upset here, it's not where we're going. But I

377
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Speaker 1: think I'm right with you, Joe. I could not agree more.

378
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Speaker 1: I think that even in garbage time, this is very achievable.

379
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:30,760
Speaker 1: I think that number is just a little bit on

380
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Speaker 1: the higher side. Ericson, let's head back to you for

381
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Speaker 1: another pick here. What do you have at number four

382
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Speaker 1: on your list for Week eleven in the NFL?

383
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Speaker 4: Going with the Vikings plus two and a half against

384
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Speaker 4: the Denver Broncos. You know we all saw Denver Broncos

385
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 4: really give it to the Buffalo Bills, or should I

386
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Speaker 4: say the Bills gifted the Denver Broncos.

387
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Speaker 5: Yeah, a nice victory on Monday, and they gifted me a.

388
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Speaker 1: Lot of money because you know what, on Monday night

389
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Speaker 1: on our live stream, we always do the Monday Thursdays

390
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Speaker 1: game at five o'clock Eastern, myself and Bogmans where we

391
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Speaker 1: live here. For those of you who don't know who

392
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Speaker 1: just listened, don't watch the live streams Monday and Thursday.

393
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Speaker 1: We are here doing Monday night football Thursday night football.

394
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Speaker 1: Bogman was on the Denver side. I was on the

395
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Speaker 1: Denver money line. I pushed it all the way. I

396
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Speaker 1: had the Courtland Sutton paired anytime touchdown with that money line.

397
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Speaker 1: Ericson Tuesday morning was a beautiful day. I just thought

398
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 1: that was.

399
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Speaker 6: A very a good mood come back from vacation.

400
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,520
Speaker 1: You'll win money on the Denver Broncos. But let's continue

401
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Speaker 1: to talk about this group here because the Vikings are

402
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Speaker 1: the hottest team in football right now.

403
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think that's really headlined by the acquisition

404
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Speaker 4: of Josh Dobbs at quarterback. But I think the thing

405
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Speaker 4: that's being under rated is how good the defense has

406
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Speaker 4: been for the Minnesota Vikings over the last five weeks.

407
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:41,399
Speaker 4: They've barely been a big reason why this team is

408
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,679
Speaker 4: ripped off five games in a row, winning without justin

409
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Speaker 4: Jefferson without Kirk Cousins for a lot of these games, Like,

410
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Speaker 4: how is this team keep winning because they're playing defense

411
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Speaker 4: eighth and DVOA overall eleventh and EPA per play allowed fourth,

412
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Speaker 4: fewest explosive plays allowed on defense. Look, Russell Wilson, they're

413
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Speaker 4: winning games and they're playing better because he's a game manager.

414
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Speaker 4: He's not pushing the envelope in any way, shape or form.

415
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Speaker 4: Even though the Broncos defenses has been playing better, the

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Speaker 4: team on offense has less than two hundred passing yards

417
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Speaker 4: in five straight games with Russell Wilson. So I don't understand,

418
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Speaker 4: you know, I just can't see myself backing Denver as

419
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Speaker 4: two and a half point favorites at home when I

420
00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:21,719
Speaker 4: think the Vikings defense is better than the Broncos defense.

421
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,760
Speaker 4: I think that the Josh Dobbs led offense is better

422
00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,959
Speaker 4: than the Broncos Russell Wilson led offense and against the Blitz.

423
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 4: That's what Wilson's gonna face when he's going up against

424
00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 4: Brian Flores thirtieth and PF passing grade twenty three yards

425
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Speaker 4: per ten, twenty fourth, compretion rate, twenty eighth NFL passer rating.

426
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Speaker 4: So Denver's feeling all high and mighty coming off a

427
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Speaker 4: big win. I think if I can give it to him,

428
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,639
Speaker 4: Vikings winners of six in a row, let's go.

429
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Speaker 1: Yeah. I'm with you here on the Vikings. By the way, Joe,

430
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Speaker 1: I just saw that number going up to twelve points

431
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Speaker 1: bet for the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. So for those of you,

432
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Speaker 1: and this is why you just have the line alerts

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Speaker 1: over at betting pros so you see when these things

434
00:18:59,080 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 1: are happening.

435
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 6: You set certain game notifications. You know where things are going.

436
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 3: Eerckson.

437
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 6: One more thing about the Minnesota Vikings too, just before it.

438
00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,439
Speaker 1: You know it should not be left off here. I think,

439
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 1: how much do you put into you know, you've lost

440
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 1: Jefferson right for all these weeks, you lost Kirk Cousins.

441
00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 1: This team has really rallied around Dobbs, rallied around the

442
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,879
Speaker 1: coaching staff. They have really played their best football despite

443
00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: the circumstances seemingly getting worse and worse for them. Do

444
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:27,479
Speaker 1: you think that's going to carry over eventually into them

445
00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 1: challenging for this division here and maybe even winning that division.

446
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I still think the Lions are

447
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,959
Speaker 4: in that echelon tier. You know, I think they've really

448
00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:39,479
Speaker 4: established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFC. Now,

449
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 4: the NFC is worse than the AFC, so it's not

450
00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 4: really necessarily saying much because we never see an NFC

451
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,760
Speaker 4: team face an AFC team. The AFC team usually takes

452
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,440
Speaker 4: them to the cleaners, except what we saw last week

453
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 4: with Jacksonville and the forty nine ers. So I still

454
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 4: think the Lions are that team. But look, this Vikings

455
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,480
Speaker 4: team has shown that it's dangerous, Like, you don't want

456
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,040
Speaker 4: to face this team in the playoffs if they're on

457
00:19:58,040 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 4: the road, if they're at home, because they have so

458
00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 4: many moving it's like, what's Josh Jobbs going to offer? Wake,

459
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 4: what is he going to do this week? Especially as

460
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 4: a mobile quarterback. It's just another layer of an offense

461
00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,159
Speaker 4: that you know, Kevin o'connos never really had with you know,

462
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 4: Kirk Cousins, a more statue SQ quarterback. So they're kind

463
00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,480
Speaker 4: of learning together and they're seeing like, wow, like what

464
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 4: can we make this offense? And now that we get

465
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 4: Jefferson back too in the incoming weeks. Yeah, the Vikings

466
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 4: are a team that they could be make some noise

467
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 4: in the playoffs if they don't come away with the division.

468
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:26,400
Speaker 1: All right, one more pick for each of the boys here,

469
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 1: let's get after it here. Joe Lisi back to you

470
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 1: can be your final pick that you're in on for

471
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 1: Week eleven.

472
00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 2: I'm going with a total over the forty and a

473
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 2: half Jacksonville and Tennessee. Again, this comes down to Jacksonville

474
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:43,000
Speaker 2: and Tennessee both disappointing offensive performances. They get shut out

475
00:20:43,040 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 2: basically at home against San Francisco.

476
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: The Jaguars.

477
00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:48,399
Speaker 2: Peterson's come out and said they need to attack a

478
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:52,439
Speaker 2: little bit more vertically. Rushing attack was nonexistent, and we

479
00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 2: know that the weakness of Tennessee is in terms of

480
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 2: the secondary given up well over two hundred and forty

481
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,360
Speaker 2: passing on to opposing offenses. The ability now with Will

482
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,480
Speaker 2: Levis to potentially develop. They're not just going to go

483
00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 2: into this ball game. I believe running the football with

484
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 2: the rushing attack of Tod J. Spears and Derrick Henry,

485
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 2: they need to see if they have a franchise quarterback

486
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 2: Will Levis. So points of plenty guys forty and a

487
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: half to me is light. I think this game gets

488
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 2: potentially into the high forties early fifties.

489
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 3: All right, here we.

490
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 1: Go, so we'll see if we'll Levis can do his

491
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 1: part this week after a very miserable week last week.

492
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: All right, Ericson, let's wrap things up here with you. You

493
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: got one more pick for week eleven. What is it?

494
00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 4: Well, Joe brought in some double digit dogs, road dogs.

495
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:38,600
Speaker 4: By the way, I'm going with the home dog, the

496
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 4: home double digit dog, Carolina Panthers plus ten and a half.

497
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:43,280
Speaker 5: You are the Packers boy.

498
00:21:43,359 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 1: Forer Erickson, I have to say, like on this show

499
00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:48,159
Speaker 1: this year, you called the one victory they had. You

500
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: called it, and you were out there in front of it.

501
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:51,680
Speaker 1: I gave you all the credit in the world. When

502
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: we came back, I wasn't buying it. So now everybody

503
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 1: better pay attention to listen because when Ericson speaks about

504
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,399
Speaker 1: the Panthers, he's typically right. So what do you have

505
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 1: for the people here?

506
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:00,640
Speaker 5: All right?

507
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 4: So when you look at Dallas, you know they have

508
00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 4: covered the spread as favorites seven of their last eight games.

509
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 4: The one game they didn't cover was on the road

510
00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 4: as double digit favorites against the Arizona Cardinals. Like Dallas

511
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 4: has been rolling They're now viewed as, Oh, they're gonna

512
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 4: be a super Bowl team, dak for MVP. Let's get

513
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 4: Celam Offensive Player of the Year. They're rolling and then

514
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 4: obviously Caroline is coming off a Thursday night game where

515
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 4: they couldn't move the ball on offense. But they have

516
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 4: extra time. You know, when we talked about Carolina when

517
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 4: they beat the Texans and they will only win the season,

518
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 4: they came off extra time. They were off their bye week,

519
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 4: so they're also coming off a Thursday night game, so

520
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 4: they have extra time to get ready for this matchup.

521
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,640
Speaker 4: They are two and two against the spread at home.

522
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 4: Dallas is two and three against the spread on the road. Dallas,

523
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 4: a lot of their numbers are inflated by them just

524
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 4: destroying teams at home, but they have not been nearly

525
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 4: as good or effective playing on the road away from Dallas.

526
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 4: So for me, i've it's a principle for betting. For me,

527
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 4: it's like double digits at home. I take the home

528
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 4: dog at home because I just see this is where

529
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 4: the value is with the Carolina Panthers. Nobody wants to

530
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 4: back them here. Everyone wants to back Dallas. But that's

531
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 4: the principle of the betting. For me, I'm taking a

532
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 4: double digit home dog, and I think that there's enough

533
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 4: reasons to back Carolina when Dallas has shown kind of

534
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 4: some errors in their armor a little bit when it

535
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 4: comes to them playing on the road, Like they don't

536
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 4: play nearly as well on the road as they do

537
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 4: at home, and Caroline has played much better at home

538
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 4: than on the road this season. So Caroline is also

539
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,160
Speaker 4: getting back Brian Burns after he missed last week. See

540
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 4: Henderson's coming back. Jac Horn might come back and the Panthers.

541
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 4: Panthers defense ranks fourth best in terms of fewest explosive

542
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,960
Speaker 4: plays allowed through the passing game. What has Dallas done

543
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 4: this last month that's make them destroy their opponents has

544
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,800
Speaker 4: been all big passing plays. If the Panthers can slow

545
00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 4: them down in those big passing plays, I think they

546
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 4: keape this game within ten and a half points.

547
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 5: So I like Caroline at home.

548
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: I don't like to question the Panther whisper, but I

549
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 1: do want to ask this question. I know a lot

550
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 1: of that data about the cowboysy through out there was

551
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 1: before the bye. They've come out of that buy and

552
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: since Dak Prescott has really aired thing out do you

553
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 1: think that this offense that's now taken that aerial attack

554
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: to a new level and see Lamb's doing what he's

555
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,919
Speaker 1: doing and Dak's doing what he's doing, do you think

556
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:16,240
Speaker 1: that that data matters as much currently to what you've

557
00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: seen on the Cowboys the last few weeks just out

558
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: of curiosity.

559
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I think it's baked into the line. Mean,

560
00:24:20,840 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 4: that's why they're ten and a half point favorites because

561
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 4: their offense has looked unstoppable against the Giants, the Eagles,

562
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 4: the Chargers, bad bad, bad defenses, Like they've faced really

563
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 4: bad defenses. So Carolina's defense is not that bad. I

564
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 4: got to mention how they've been good at limiting explosive

565
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 4: plays on offense. And the last thing I'll say when

566
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: it comes to Carolina's offense, which obviously has struggled mightily,

567
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 4: Bryce Young has very stark splits between man and zone coverage.

568
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 4: He's been god awful against zone coverage, but man coverage

569
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 4: he's been much better. Dallas runs man coverage at the

570
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 4: second highest rate in the NFL, So I like Bryce

571
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 4: Young a little bit more in this matchup because of

572
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 4: the Dallas man heavy scheme.

573
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 6: All Right, Ericson did a lot of good data there, Joe, leasey.

574
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: Before I let you go rematch of the Super Bowl

575
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,920
Speaker 1: on Monday night, I'm on the Eagle side, just out

576
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: of curiosity, where are you?

577
00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 2: I link to the Eagles as well. A little bit

578
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 2: better defense, I believe in terms of the front seven,

579
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: and I love the rushing attack with DeAndre Swift and

580
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 2: even a healthy Jalen ERTs. I think they get it

581
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: done over Kansas City. And you know what, we brought

582
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 2: this up on our show as well, car My Pardon

583
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 2: brought it. You know, Kansas City's offense sputtering without Eric

584
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,120
Speaker 2: b enemy right in Washington putting up numbers as well.

585
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 2: That's something that can consider a big picture for the

586
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs in terms of a playoff front.

587
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: Well, to me, Joe, as soon as I saw that

588
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 1: line of three, which is basically you know, they're not

589
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,400
Speaker 1: saying that the Kansas Chiefs at home are markedly better.

590
00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: That was saying a lot to me, then I might

591
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: as well as go straight for the money line and

592
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 1: straight for the value. Ericson, before I let you go

593
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,439
Speaker 1: for the day, let you go do the rest of

594
00:25:53,440 --> 00:25:56,120
Speaker 1: your job for the day. Any feelings on this game.

595
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 1: I know it is kind of a bonus action, but

596
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,200
Speaker 1: it's a big one. Wen' usually get a Monday night game.

597
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 1: This good you. The last couple weeks, I got to

598
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,040
Speaker 1: watch the Jets of the freaking Giants on one of

599
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: these primetime games, and I'm losing my mind. I can't

600
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: wait for the flex schedule to kick in. But this one,

601
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: this one's musty television.

602
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:12,440
Speaker 4: I kind of like the over because I just think

603
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,560
Speaker 4: the numbers really low, Like is that forty five.

604
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 5: And a half?

605
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 4: Which is I think kind of the line's finally considering,

606
00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 4: oh wow, like the Chiefs offense isn't scoring as many

607
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 4: points because every every time you open the book with

608
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 4: the Chiefs gamer, you're expecting, oh, it's gonna be forty eight,

609
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 4: forty seven, forty nine to fifty, especially against the Eagles,

610
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 4: you figure, okay, like it'll be forty eight and a half,

611
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 4: forty nine, it's like forty five and a half, Like okay,

612
00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 4: like Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts forty five and a half.

613
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 4: I'll take the I would have fun on Monday night, Okay,

614
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 4: So I'm taking the over.

615
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 6: Ericson's having fun Joe's having fun. I'm having fun.

616
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: Hopefully you're having fun joining us every single day. We'll

617
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: be back again tomorrow. Don't forget for the prop show,

618
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: and of course thank sure you join us every Monday

619
00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: and Thursday Night Live as well as Sunday too, helping

620
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 1: you make the right picks. And don't forget to drop

621
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: your comments below. Subscribe to the channel and ring that

622
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 1: bell to lit goes ding. That'll do it for us,

623
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: but the story of the game goes on for Joe

624
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: and Andrew. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

625
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 7: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

626
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 7: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

627
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:11,760
Speaker 7: by leaving a positive review on.

628
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

629
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,320
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630
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 7: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube

631
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 7: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros