WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Richard Haass & Julian Emanuel

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<v Speaker 1>It is single best idea and you get lucky. On

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<v Speaker 1>a rainy Thursday in New York, scheduled was Richard Haass,

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<v Speaker 1>the force of the Consulate Foreign Relations, recently retired but

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<v Speaker 1>working a seven day work week, hugely in demand within

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<v Speaker 1>the study of international relations, and it was really wonderful

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<v Speaker 1>to do what we do on surveillance. What the heritage

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<v Speaker 1>of the show is over two decades, which is talked

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<v Speaker 1>to Richard Haass is an art centrist representing administrations both

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<v Speaker 1>Republican and Democratic. About the ultimate centrist, which is Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Liberman of Connecticut. Whatever you think of Senator Joe Liberman

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<v Speaker 1>and his sudden death here in the last number of days,

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<v Speaker 1>he was someone who defined the old school centrism of

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<v Speaker 1>another time and place. The centrist attitude is not seen

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<v Speaker 1>in Israel. We talked to Richard Haass about mister Yahoo

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<v Speaker 1>and his Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>He doesn't have a partner, this Israeli government or this

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<v Speaker 2>Israeli Prime minister. All of his efforts at persuading them

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<v Speaker 2>haven't amounted to much of anything. So he's got to

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<v Speaker 2>go over their head. He's got to speak directly to

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<v Speaker 2>the Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to

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<v Speaker 2>remain a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to

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<v Speaker 2>choose a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose

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<v Speaker 2>a different path in the West Bank. And I even

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<v Speaker 2>suggested he go to the Kanessea. Do it from the

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<v Speaker 2>floor of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of

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<v Speaker 2>bb nets and Yahoo's book. Who came to Washington spoke

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<v Speaker 2>from the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal?

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<v Speaker 2>But I don't quite care whether he does it from

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<v Speaker 2>the Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually

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<v Speaker 2>seeing is the administration is moving away from a policy

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<v Speaker 2>that's predicated on persuading bb Nets in Yahoo, and they're

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<v Speaker 2>dealing much more with the policy that's either independent, we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to provide aid, We're going to veto this resolution,

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<v Speaker 2>or introduce our own, essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's a healthy change.

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<v Speaker 1>Richard Haas with the Council on Foreign Relations for decades

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<v Speaker 1>there on the geopolitics of Israel in the President of

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. Just a little vignette here of our world.

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<v Speaker 1>At fifty ninth Street and Lexington Avenue, across from blooming

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<v Speaker 1>Tal's We're truly in midtown Manhattan, two blocks three blocks

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<v Speaker 1>over from Central Park. Eric Mallo and I were walking

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<v Speaker 1>home today. Are there any presidents who are not in

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<v Speaker 1>the city today? You know, fragile James Earl Carter is

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<v Speaker 1>not here, but everyone else seems to be and it

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<v Speaker 1>looks to be a shutdown Manhattan here as we stagger

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<v Speaker 1>through a Thursday before a longer weekend program. Note, I

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<v Speaker 1>do want to point out that Michael McKee will be

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<v Speaker 1>leading our coverage tomorrow on important economic data. Thrilled to

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<v Speaker 1>Tom Percelly and Sarah House will join us on Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Surveillahs and special thank you to Nathan Haigh for coming

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<v Speaker 1>in on a good Friday to provide coverage. They're leading

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<v Speaker 1>our equity review today the last day of the first

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<v Speaker 1>quarter of trading was Julian Emmanuel. He's with Evercore Isi

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<v Speaker 1>and that's always an important conversation wrapped around the economics

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<v Speaker 1>of Edward Hyman, wrapped around the market review of that

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<v Speaker 1>economics by Julian Emmanuel. They are in the market, they

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<v Speaker 1>are not in cash, but there's some humility about how far,

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<v Speaker 1>how fast we've come, and of course with Ed Hymen

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<v Speaker 1>looking for a disinflation tendency that appears to installed.

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<v Speaker 3>The first thing we have to do is step back

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<v Speaker 3>and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere

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<v Speaker 3>near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y

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<v Speaker 3>two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so

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<v Speaker 3>in the S and B is exuberant, but from our

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<v Speaker 3>point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced

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<v Speaker 3>in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to

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<v Speaker 3>be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth

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<v Speaker 3>which has been basically the baseline for the last couple

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<v Speaker 3>of months, has downside as we think it does. The

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<v Speaker 3>way the way you want to think about this is

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<v Speaker 3>how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps

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<v Speaker 3>a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the

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<v Speaker 3>history of making subpar returns in investing comes from selling

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<v Speaker 3>into down markets as opposed to just sort of thinking

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<v Speaker 3>about how you position when things are good as they

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<v Speaker 3>are now.

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<v Speaker 1>A lot of wisdom from Julian Emmanuel there, and I

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<v Speaker 1>really want to separate out the way we do things

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg Surveillance as we spend a lot of time

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<v Speaker 1>talking to equity strategists and investors who understand the way

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<v Speaker 1>to win is to be in the market, and that

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<v Speaker 1>market timing of being in the market, coming out, going

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<v Speaker 1>to cash, and then critically, the decision once you're in cash,

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<v Speaker 1>how do I get back into the market again is

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<v Speaker 1>a real, real chore. We do talk to people that

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<v Speaker 1>do that. They're interested in timing and all, but I

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<v Speaker 1>really want to emphasize our view, and our view for

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<v Speaker 1>years has been, Okay, I got to be in the market.

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<v Speaker 1>How do I participate in a market if I'm scared,

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<v Speaker 1>stiff or I'm optimistic in any of the different flavors

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<v Speaker 1>there It has been. I just can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>the humility required here into a March thirty first, this

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<v Speaker 1>first quarter of twenty twenty four has really been nuanced.

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<v Speaker 1>Has been a surprise of economic growth three point four

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<v Speaker 1>percent GDP for the final quarter of twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a wow statistic. All of that tempered by the

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<v Speaker 1>conversation we have on economics, finance, investment, Thank you, Richard Haas.

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<v Speaker 1>On international relations, we're on Apple car Play. Thrilled with

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<v Speaker 1>that work out there with Google as well, but Apple

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<v Speaker 1>CarPlay download the Bloomberg Business app and on YouTube holding

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<v Speaker 1>us out. I can't wait to see where we are

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<v Speaker 1>in one year or two years. On a build out

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<v Speaker 1>of YouTube search for Bloomberg podcasts, it's single best idea.

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning,