Speaker 1: It is single best idea and you get lucky. On
Speaker 1: a rainy Thursday in New York, scheduled was Richard Haass,
Speaker 1: the force of the Consulate Foreign Relations, recently retired but
Speaker 1: working a seven day work week, hugely in demand within
Speaker 1: the study of international relations, and it was really wonderful
Speaker 1: to do what we do on surveillance. What the heritage
Speaker 1: of the show is over two decades, which is talked
Speaker 1: to Richard Haass is an art centrist representing administrations both
Speaker 1: Republican and Democratic. About the ultimate centrist, which is Joe
Speaker 1: Liberman of Connecticut. Whatever you think of Senator Joe Liberman
Speaker 1: and his sudden death here in the last number of days,
Speaker 1: he was someone who defined the old school centrism of
Speaker 1: another time and place. The centrist attitude is not seen
Speaker 1: in Israel. We talked to Richard Haass about mister Yahoo
Speaker 1: and his Israel.
Speaker 2: He doesn't have a partner, this Israeli government or this
Speaker 2: Israeli Prime minister. All of his efforts at persuading them
Speaker 2: haven't amounted to much of anything. So he's got to
Speaker 2: go over their head. He's got to speak directly to
Speaker 2: the Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to
Speaker 2: remain a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to
Speaker 2: choose a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose
Speaker 2: a different path in the West Bank. And I even
Speaker 2: suggested he go to the Kanessea. Do it from the
Speaker 2: floor of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of
Speaker 2: bb nets and Yahoo's book. Who came to Washington spoke
Speaker 2: from the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal?
Speaker 2: But I don't quite care whether he does it from
Speaker 2: the Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually
Speaker 2: seeing is the administration is moving away from a policy
Speaker 2: that's predicated on persuading bb Nets in Yahoo, and they're
Speaker 2: dealing much more with the policy that's either independent, we're
Speaker 2: going to provide aid, We're going to veto this resolution,
Speaker 2: or introduce our own, essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So
Speaker 2: I think it's a healthy change.
Speaker 1: Richard Haas with the Council on Foreign Relations for decades
Speaker 1: there on the geopolitics of Israel in the President of
Speaker 1: the United States. Just a little vignette here of our world.
Speaker 1: At fifty ninth Street and Lexington Avenue, across from blooming
Speaker 1: Tal's We're truly in midtown Manhattan, two blocks three blocks
Speaker 1: over from Central Park. Eric Mallo and I were walking
Speaker 1: home today. Are there any presidents who are not in
Speaker 1: the city today? You know, fragile James Earl Carter is
Speaker 1: not here, but everyone else seems to be and it
Speaker 1: looks to be a shutdown Manhattan here as we stagger
Speaker 1: through a Thursday before a longer weekend program. Note, I
Speaker 1: do want to point out that Michael McKee will be
Speaker 1: leading our coverage tomorrow on important economic data. Thrilled to
Speaker 1: Tom Percelly and Sarah House will join us on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillahs and special thank you to Nathan Haigh for coming
Speaker 1: in on a good Friday to provide coverage. They're leading
Speaker 1: our equity review today the last day of the first
Speaker 1: quarter of trading was Julian Emmanuel. He's with Evercore Isi
Speaker 1: and that's always an important conversation wrapped around the economics
Speaker 1: of Edward Hyman, wrapped around the market review of that
Speaker 1: economics by Julian Emmanuel. They are in the market, they
Speaker 1: are not in cash, but there's some humility about how far,
Speaker 1: how fast we've come, and of course with Ed Hymen
Speaker 1: looking for a disinflation tendency that appears to installed.
Speaker 3: The first thing we have to do is step back
Speaker 3: and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere
Speaker 3: near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y
Speaker 3: two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so
Speaker 3: in the S and B is exuberant, but from our
Speaker 3: point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced
Speaker 3: in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to
Speaker 3: be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth
Speaker 3: which has been basically the baseline for the last couple
Speaker 3: of months, has downside as we think it does. The
Speaker 3: way the way you want to think about this is
Speaker 3: how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps
Speaker 3: a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the
Speaker 3: history of making subpar returns in investing comes from selling
Speaker 3: into down markets as opposed to just sort of thinking
Speaker 3: about how you position when things are good as they
Speaker 3: are now.
Speaker 1: A lot of wisdom from Julian Emmanuel there, and I
Speaker 1: really want to separate out the way we do things
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Surveillance as we spend a lot of time
Speaker 1: talking to equity strategists and investors who understand the way
Speaker 1: to win is to be in the market, and that
Speaker 1: market timing of being in the market, coming out, going
Speaker 1: to cash, and then critically, the decision once you're in cash,
Speaker 1: how do I get back into the market again is
Speaker 1: a real, real chore. We do talk to people that
Speaker 1: do that. They're interested in timing and all, but I
Speaker 1: really want to emphasize our view, and our view for
Speaker 1: years has been, Okay, I got to be in the market.
Speaker 1: How do I participate in a market if I'm scared,
Speaker 1: stiff or I'm optimistic in any of the different flavors
Speaker 1: there It has been. I just can't say enough about
Speaker 1: the humility required here into a March thirty first, this
Speaker 1: first quarter of twenty twenty four has really been nuanced.
Speaker 1: Has been a surprise of economic growth three point four
Speaker 1: percent GDP for the final quarter of twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: That's a wow statistic. All of that tempered by the
Speaker 1: conversation we have on economics, finance, investment, Thank you, Richard Haas.
Speaker 1: On international relations, we're on Apple car Play. Thrilled with
Speaker 1: that work out there with Google as well, but Apple
Speaker 1: CarPlay download the Bloomberg Business app and on YouTube holding
Speaker 1: us out. I can't wait to see where we are
Speaker 1: in one year or two years. On a build out
Speaker 1: of YouTube search for Bloomberg podcasts, it's single best idea.
Speaker 1: Good morning,