1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,960
Speaker 1: It is single best idea and you get lucky. On

2
00:00:03,000 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: a rainy Thursday in New York, scheduled was Richard Haass,

3
00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,680
Speaker 1: the force of the Consulate Foreign Relations, recently retired but

4
00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:15,000
Speaker 1: working a seven day work week, hugely in demand within

5
00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:18,840
Speaker 1: the study of international relations, and it was really wonderful

6
00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,200
Speaker 1: to do what we do on surveillance. What the heritage

7
00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,160
Speaker 1: of the show is over two decades, which is talked

8
00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 1: to Richard Haass is an art centrist representing administrations both

9
00:00:29,840 --> 00:00:34,639
Speaker 1: Republican and Democratic. About the ultimate centrist, which is Joe

10
00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:38,440
Speaker 1: Liberman of Connecticut. Whatever you think of Senator Joe Liberman

11
00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 1: and his sudden death here in the last number of days,

12
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:48,159
Speaker 1: he was someone who defined the old school centrism of

13
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,880
Speaker 1: another time and place. The centrist attitude is not seen

14
00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,880
Speaker 1: in Israel. We talked to Richard Haass about mister Yahoo

15
00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 1: and his Israel.

16
00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,440
Speaker 2: He doesn't have a partner, this Israeli government or this

17
00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,320
Speaker 2: Israeli Prime minister. All of his efforts at persuading them

18
00:01:05,440 --> 00:01:08,120
Speaker 2: haven't amounted to much of anything. So he's got to

19
00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,440
Speaker 2: go over their head. He's got to speak directly to

20
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:14,480
Speaker 2: the Israeli people about Israel's future. If it wants to

21
00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 2: remain a secure, prosperous Jewish democratic state, it's got to

22
00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,240
Speaker 2: choose a different path in Gaza, it's got to choose

23
00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,160
Speaker 2: a different path in the West Bank. And I even

24
00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:27,959
Speaker 2: suggested he go to the Kanessea. Do it from the

25
00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:30,520
Speaker 2: floor of the Israeli Parliament. Take a page out of

26
00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,080
Speaker 2: bb nets and Yahoo's book. Who came to Washington spoke

27
00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,959
Speaker 2: from the Congress to speak against the Iran nuclear deal?

28
00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 2: But I don't quite care whether he does it from

29
00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,920
Speaker 2: the Knesse or not. I think, though, what we're actually

30
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:47,040
Speaker 2: seeing is the administration is moving away from a policy

31
00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:51,000
Speaker 2: that's predicated on persuading bb Nets in Yahoo, and they're

32
00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,160
Speaker 2: dealing much more with the policy that's either independent, we're

33
00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:57,120
Speaker 2: going to provide aid, We're going to veto this resolution,

34
00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:02,440
Speaker 2: or introduce our own, essentially pressuring the Israeli government. So

35
00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 2: I think it's a healthy change.

36
00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:07,240
Speaker 1: Richard Haas with the Council on Foreign Relations for decades

37
00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:12,639
Speaker 1: there on the geopolitics of Israel in the President of

38
00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:16,320
Speaker 1: the United States. Just a little vignette here of our world.

39
00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:21,240
Speaker 1: At fifty ninth Street and Lexington Avenue, across from blooming

40
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:25,000
Speaker 1: Tal's We're truly in midtown Manhattan, two blocks three blocks

41
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,519
Speaker 1: over from Central Park. Eric Mallo and I were walking

42
00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,200
Speaker 1: home today. Are there any presidents who are not in

43
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,280
Speaker 1: the city today? You know, fragile James Earl Carter is

44
00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,240
Speaker 1: not here, but everyone else seems to be and it

45
00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:42,720
Speaker 1: looks to be a shutdown Manhattan here as we stagger

46
00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:47,200
Speaker 1: through a Thursday before a longer weekend program. Note, I

47
00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,679
Speaker 1: do want to point out that Michael McKee will be

48
00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:53,840
Speaker 1: leading our coverage tomorrow on important economic data. Thrilled to

49
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,160
Speaker 1: Tom Percelly and Sarah House will join us on Bloomberg

50
00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:01,440
Speaker 1: Surveillahs and special thank you to Nathan Haigh for coming

51
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 1: in on a good Friday to provide coverage. They're leading

52
00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:09,680
Speaker 1: our equity review today the last day of the first

53
00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:13,960
Speaker 1: quarter of trading was Julian Emmanuel. He's with Evercore Isi

54
00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 1: and that's always an important conversation wrapped around the economics

55
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 1: of Edward Hyman, wrapped around the market review of that

56
00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:24,640
Speaker 1: economics by Julian Emmanuel. They are in the market, they

57
00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,679
Speaker 1: are not in cash, but there's some humility about how far,

58
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 1: how fast we've come, and of course with Ed Hymen

59
00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:36,520
Speaker 1: looking for a disinflation tendency that appears to installed.

60
00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,520
Speaker 3: The first thing we have to do is step back

61
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,640
Speaker 3: and say, the market is exuberant, but it is nowhere

62
00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,600
Speaker 3: near irrational. Twenty eight times what you saw in Y

63
00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,400
Speaker 3: two K, which would imply sixty two hundred or so

64
00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 3: in the S and B is exuberant, but from our

65
00:03:50,640 --> 00:03:55,360
Speaker 3: point of view, with the accumulated sort of perfection priced

66
00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 3: in and the possibility that the FED isn't going to

67
00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:02,640
Speaker 3: be able to deliver, and that eleven percent earnings growth

68
00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 3: which has been basically the baseline for the last couple

69
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:10,080
Speaker 3: of months, has downside as we think it does. The

70
00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,560
Speaker 3: way the way you want to think about this is

71
00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,760
Speaker 3: how do you stay in your core positions with perhaps

72
00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:21,280
Speaker 3: a tilt towards defense and not get scared because the

73
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:27,839
Speaker 3: history of making subpar returns in investing comes from selling

74
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:32,000
Speaker 3: into down markets as opposed to just sort of thinking

75
00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:35,800
Speaker 3: about how you position when things are good as they

76
00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 3: are now.

77
00:04:36,360 --> 00:04:38,640
Speaker 1: A lot of wisdom from Julian Emmanuel there, and I

78
00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 1: really want to separate out the way we do things

79
00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:45,159
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Surveillance as we spend a lot of time

80
00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:50,039
Speaker 1: talking to equity strategists and investors who understand the way

81
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,160
Speaker 1: to win is to be in the market, and that

82
00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,640
Speaker 1: market timing of being in the market, coming out, going

83
00:04:55,680 --> 00:05:00,279
Speaker 1: to cash, and then critically, the decision once you're in cash,

84
00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,240
Speaker 1: how do I get back into the market again is

85
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:06,960
Speaker 1: a real, real chore. We do talk to people that

86
00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:10,159
Speaker 1: do that. They're interested in timing and all, but I

87
00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:13,800
Speaker 1: really want to emphasize our view, and our view for

88
00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:16,240
Speaker 1: years has been, Okay, I got to be in the market.

89
00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,279
Speaker 1: How do I participate in a market if I'm scared,

90
00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:22,200
Speaker 1: stiff or I'm optimistic in any of the different flavors

91
00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,839
Speaker 1: there It has been. I just can't say enough about

92
00:05:24,839 --> 00:05:28,919
Speaker 1: the humility required here into a March thirty first, this

93
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:33,640
Speaker 1: first quarter of twenty twenty four has really been nuanced.

94
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:36,479
Speaker 1: Has been a surprise of economic growth three point four

95
00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:40,120
Speaker 1: percent GDP for the final quarter of twenty twenty three.

96
00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,600
Speaker 1: That's a wow statistic. All of that tempered by the

97
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,880
Speaker 1: conversation we have on economics, finance, investment, Thank you, Richard Haas.

98
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:52,800
Speaker 1: On international relations, we're on Apple car Play. Thrilled with

99
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:55,680
Speaker 1: that work out there with Google as well, but Apple

100
00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,279
Speaker 1: CarPlay download the Bloomberg Business app and on YouTube holding

101
00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,040
Speaker 1: us out. I can't wait to see where we are

102
00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:04,480
Speaker 1: in one year or two years. On a build out

103
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:09,080
Speaker 1: of YouTube search for Bloomberg podcasts, it's single best idea.

104
00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:09,880
Speaker 1: Good morning,