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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy at Thursday, I have

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Speaker 1: an amazing show for eybody today when we have Crystal.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, we do heavy US retaliation against Iran overnight as

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Speaker 2: Iran claims that they destroyed three of our F thirty

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Speaker 2: five fighter jets. We will break down where we are

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Speaker 2: in the war today. Fauci name we haven't discussed for

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Speaker 2: a while. Grilled Yesterday pleads the fifth amid new revelations.

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Speaker 2: We will see what there is to learn about that.

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Speaker 2: The chip set off continues, with South Korea hit the

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Speaker 2: hardest really a big hit taken to that economy, a

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Speaker 2: lot of retail investors who are getting screwed. What does

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Speaker 2: it say more broadly about the AI bet that our

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Speaker 2: own economy has placed. Speaking of AI, we've learned more

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Speaker 2: about that AI that was able to escape its environment

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Speaker 2: hack into now we know multiple companies. This comes as

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Speaker 2: employees in the industry, over a thousand of them are

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Speaker 2: sounding a dire warning and asking for more regulation. Israel, meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: is paying millions of dollars to Trump's former campaign chief

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Speaker 2: to try to rig chatbot results.

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Speaker 1: We have some.

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Speaker 2: Extraordinary examples for you, and the reporter from dropsite who

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Speaker 2: revealed this whole scheme and program is going to join

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Speaker 2: us as well.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's right. Really excited for that one, and that

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Speaker 1: was one of those everybody knew that they were doing

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Speaker 1: a pro Israel campaign on social media, but the AI

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Speaker 1: chatbot one, especially in an age where so many people

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Speaker 1: are outsourcing their thinking and answers, is an extraordinarily important story,

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Speaker 1: especially with the receipts that he brings. Thank you to

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Speaker 1: everybody who is subscribing to the show, breaking points to

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Speaker 1: support all of our work. Here you got the coveted

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Speaker 1: crystal and Emily amme.

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Speaker 3: That is a rarity.

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Speaker 1: That is, it's a rarity, but in my opinion, you know,

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Speaker 1: like the finest of whys, that is mostly because then

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Speaker 1: I don't have to do it. I'm jumping so breakingforwards

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good sign up. We also have our newsletter

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Speaker 1: listening to the podcasts, we share an episode with a friend.

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Speaker 1: But let's go ahead and start with Iran.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, so let me bring you up to speed. You

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Speaker 2: will recall yesterday when last we spoke, Trump had threatened

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Speaker 2: to beat the fing shit.

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Speaker 3: Out of Iran.

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Speaker 2: We now have seen a very heavy retaliation from the

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Speaker 2: US against what they described as a sneak attack from

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Speaker 2: Iran on Jordan. I'm kind of confused by this term

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Speaker 2: sneak attack. I don't think you typically broadcast your military tactics,

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Speaker 2: and we.

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Speaker 3: Are at war.

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Speaker 2: There is no ceasefire agreement in play as we speak.

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Speaker 2: But in any case, Iran had attempted to and they

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Speaker 2: claim were successful in striking US forces in Jordan. Trump

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Speaker 2: made this threat and then overnight delivered on some of

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Speaker 2: that rhetoric. Let's go ahead and put this map up

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Speaker 2: on the screen. We can see some of the strikes

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Speaker 2: that we're aware of, this being tracked by an ocent

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Speaker 2: account across Iran, Southern Iran in particular. You can see

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Speaker 2: near Kesham Island, of course, that is very significant. Meanwhile, Iran,

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Speaker 2: for their part, they are claiming that they were able

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Speaker 2: to take down or destroy three F thirty five fighter jets.

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Speaker 2: One account saying for the first time since the start

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Speaker 2: of the war, Iran's i ERGC announces the complete destruction

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Speaker 2: of three F thirty five fighter jets significant damage to

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Speaker 2: three others at an air base in Jordan through multiple

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Speaker 2: ballistic missiles targeting the deployment ramp and maintenance hangar this morning.

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Speaker 2: This is per Iranian media task name. Iran had not

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Speaker 2: previously announced the destruction of an F thirty five the

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Speaker 2: iergc AD. Several US officers and maintenance personnel were also killed. Again,

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Speaker 2: we have no confirmation of any of this as all

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Speaker 2: coming from the Iranian side. The strike comes in responds

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Speaker 2: to a US strike on two residential homes on Keshum

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Speaker 2: Island earlier this morning, killing my father, mother, and their

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Speaker 2: two year old child, and injuring two other children again

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Speaker 2: according to Iranian media reports. So we are back at

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Speaker 2: full scale war more or less, with this time being

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Speaker 2: the first time. I want to get your reaction just

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Speaker 2: to this piece that Iran took the initiative. Typically, Iran's

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Speaker 2: approach has been what they describe as an eye for

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Speaker 2: an eye. The US hits them, they respond, and it's

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Speaker 2: been sort of this horizontal escalation that has been their tactic.

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Speaker 2: This is the first time that they have been the

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Speaker 2: first ones to act and set the pace of escalation here.

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Speaker 2: Now their view is that the US reinstitution of the

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Speaker 2: blockade was itself an act of war for them to

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Speaker 2: respond to. Nevertheless, this seems to be a pretty extraordinary

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Speaker 2: development as we watch this war.

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Speaker 1: So reading a little bit and looking at some of

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Speaker 1: the background, I do think it's important to note, you know,

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Speaker 1: the US is describing it as a surprise. It's not

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Speaker 1: a surprise, and it's because it actually comes on the

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Speaker 1: heels not just of the blockade, but at that exact

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Speaker 1: time when Iran struck the US base, there was a

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Speaker 1: specific attempt to try and to force ships through that

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Speaker 1: Oman corridor outside of Iranian control. And so that's what

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Speaker 1: the response was directed to. But grand strategically, let's zoom

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Speaker 1: out and let's put that attack and then this one

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Speaker 1: a two please up on the screen. Iran and a

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Speaker 1: drone hit a US owned gas storage tank at Egypt's

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Speaker 1: Mediterranean report according to their maritime security and two gas

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Speaker 1: tankers caught fire. This is about an explosion of the

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Speaker 1: war and targeting oil assets, energy assets both in terms

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Speaker 1: of their allies in the hoo theies whenever it comes

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Speaker 1: to the Red Sea, the Bab al Mandeb. Straight now

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Speaker 1: you have going after Egypt and you know, basically a

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Speaker 1: warning for the Mediterranean port saying hey, you want to

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Speaker 1: go through Suez, you want to go through this pipeline.

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Speaker 1: The sum Ed pipeline will also be able to strike

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Speaker 1: you there. And of course we'll be able to strike

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Speaker 1: tankers in the Strait of hor Moves, which also happened

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Speaker 1: last night. It wasn't just these strikes that happened on Jordan.

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Speaker 1: So this strategy is basically to say we have a

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Speaker 1: complete dedication to choking off all Western attempts to circumvent

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Speaker 1: and to bring oil out of the Middle East. Period.

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Speaker 1: If we cannot export, Then nobody will export. Remember this

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Speaker 1: is what Gallibov had said previously. But even bigger above that,

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Speaker 1: what does all of this represent and treata PARSI laid

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Speaker 1: a lot of this out yesterday. He has a new

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Speaker 1: op ed out over at SETAEO. Here's what he says.

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Speaker 1: Beyond the prevailing assessment that Iran was probing Trump's resolve,

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Speaker 1: a deeper and riskier calculation Tehran is now making. It

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Speaker 1: has everything to do with Iran believing that the path

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Speaker 1: to piece is not directly through a deal, but rather

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Speaker 1: first through convincing Trump he has no realistic military option.

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Speaker 1: Only then will he commit himself fully to diplomacy. Needless

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Speaker 1: to say, it is extraordinarily risky strategy. It seeks to

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Speaker 1: compel diplomacy by increasing the perceived costs of military escalation,

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Speaker 1: yet it simultaneously raised the probability of the very conflict

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Speaker 1: it istensibly designed to prevent. This is the escalation trap

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Speaker 1: in a nutshell, which is both sides believe, and I've

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Speaker 1: said this as well. Neither side has bled enough, and

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Speaker 1: you know Iran has bled plenty, so many of their

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Speaker 1: people have been killed, but the IERGC remains intact. The Ayatola.

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Speaker 1: You know, supposedly it wants a nuclear weapon, even though

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Speaker 1: his father didn't want a nuclear weapon. They have the

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Speaker 1: ability to have deterrence. They are locked in a place

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Speaker 1: where they have the United States in a diplomatic or

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Speaker 1: in a strategic quagmire from the United States. We are

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Speaker 1: a grand and a great empire. So while yes it

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Speaker 1: is extremely dangerous, we're going to talk about our munition stockpile.

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Speaker 1: It's not a zero. Only only eighteen of our Americans

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Speaker 1: service members have been killed. So you know, I'm not

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Speaker 1: using that language. That's Trump's languages, like not that bad.

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Speaker 1: Look at Vietnam. Not that many Americans have died relatively

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Speaker 1: in the conflict. Several hundred have been wounded, but they've

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Speaker 1: mostly been able to cover that up. And gases, what

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Speaker 1: I mean, the national price right now four dollars and

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Speaker 1: nine cents a gallon. It hurts, but it's not absolutely catastrophic,

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Speaker 1: Like it's not gas lines in the nineteen seventies. So

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Speaker 1: Iran is like, that's the only way that we can

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Speaker 1: bring them to their knees. There's only real one way

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Speaker 1: to get to that point. So we're months away, you know,

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Speaker 1: potentially from their perspective, and Trump, you know, is completely torn.

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Speaker 1: There's a report from NBC News yesterday that he was

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Speaker 1: exasperated and he shouted at his advisors just two days

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Speaker 1: ago in the situation room. He doesn't know what to do.

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Speaker 1: He actually does want a deal, but he wants it

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Speaker 1: on his terms. Iran, though, has concluded, we cannot make

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Speaker 1: a deal with this man, most because of the way

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Speaker 1: that the memorandum of understanding fell apart. But you know,

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Speaker 1: more importantly, this is fascinating. They're looking at Venezuela. So

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Speaker 1: even though that Venezuela is currently an American colony run

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Speaker 1: by the US Secretary of State, it turns out, and

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Speaker 1: I did not even know this, is that they track

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Speaker 1: the relief of sanctions via Finsen, which is the art

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Speaker 1: which is a department in the US Treasury responsible for

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Speaker 1: removal of sanctions. Despite a lot of the rhetoric, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't happened. It took a very very long time. Iran

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Speaker 1: had the memoram of understanding. They saw that their money

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Speaker 1: never actually made it to their bank accounts. They're looking

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Speaker 1: at Venezuela and saying, look, Venezuela and Delsea. They surrendered

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Speaker 1: and They're still not even getting all of their money.

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Speaker 1: They're basically being pillaged by the United States. They also

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Speaker 1: look at Saudi Arabia, so they have three data points.

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Speaker 1: They have the Memorandum of Understanding, they have Venezuela, and

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Speaker 1: they have Saudi Arabia. Trump announces a nuclear deal in

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Speaker 1: immediately renex and then they also look at some of

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Speaker 1: the Democrats and the Republicans in Washington to their criticism

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Speaker 1: initially of the memorandum, and they go, even if we

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Speaker 1: were to do a deal with Trump, how do we

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Speaker 1: have any guarantee as Obama tried with the JCPOA they

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Speaker 1: would actually get through Congress. Now obviously his did. But

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Speaker 1: what they're looking at now, they don't even trust enough

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Speaker 1: of the Democrats, you know, currently to support a memorandum

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Speaker 1: of understanding. So they don't trust Trump. They don't trust

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Speaker 1: our political system, you know, at our system itself, both

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Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans. They don't trust the ability of any

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Speaker 1: of their money getting to them. And this is all

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Speaker 1: just over the horror moves strait. None of this has

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Speaker 1: even to do with the nuclear issue, which is ten

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Speaker 1: times bigger and more contentious in everything.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's we can put a five up on the

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Speaker 2: screen which contain a lot of this analysis. This is

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Speaker 2: someone who teaches at Johns Hopkins International Studies Institute, and

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Speaker 2: he says, you know, basically what Sager is outlining here

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Speaker 2: that in his conversations with counterparts in Tehran, it suggests

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Speaker 2: something else is at play. Iranian decision making is increasingly

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Speaker 2: shaped by an intense pessimism about what diplomacy with the

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Speaker 2: US can achieve. Most senior figures, whether pragmatists or hardliners,

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Speaker 2: simply don't.

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Speaker 3: Believe a deal is possible.

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Speaker 2: The pessimism has gotten worse since the MoU was signed.

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Speaker 2: And so he points to Asager saying, political horizon here. Okay,

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Speaker 2: not only do you have a split in the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration where even in the regime itself they don't agree

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Speaker 2: with each other, but then when ANMAU was signed, we

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Speaker 2: have democrats out there taking podshots saying, oh my god,

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Speaker 2: how can you cave to the what a gift to

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Speaker 2: the Mullahs, etcetera, et cetera. Looking at Venezuela, you control Venezuela,

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Speaker 2: you got everything you wanted here, you kidnap their leader,

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Speaker 2: and you still can't make good on the things you're

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Speaker 2: supposed to do with.

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Speaker 3: Regard to Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: Then they look at their own experience with the MoU,

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Speaker 2: where there was supposed to be sanctions relief and that

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Speaker 2: did not come through even in that short period of time.

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Speaker 2: So on every level, they're looking at this and saying,

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Speaker 2: how can we expect, like, even if Trump has the

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Speaker 2: best of intentions here, which who would like?

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Speaker 3: Who would really believe that?

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Speaker 2: But even if you bought that, they say, he is

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Speaker 2: unable to actually follow through through some you know, his

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Speaker 2: own personality defects. He's so erratic, he can't focus to

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Speaker 2: follow through on anything. His own administrations at war with itself.

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Speaker 2: They're in a political, you know, disaster landscape. Democrats are

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Speaker 2: taking political potshots that make this even more impossible. And

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Speaker 2: then just on the mechanics of it with the MoU,

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Speaker 2: with Saudi Arabia, with Venezuela, they literally seem to be

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Speaker 2: unable to follow through.

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Speaker 3: And so what does that mean?

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Speaker 2: That means that you are not going to negotiate, at

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Speaker 2: least not in the short term. What that means is

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Speaker 2: you have to exact so much pain that it forces

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Speaker 2: an outcome. That is what they're trying to accomplish right now.

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Speaker 2: And so when you see them taking the initiative and

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Speaker 2: being the first ones to strike in this instance, it's

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Speaker 2: not necessarily because the hardliners won the argument, although in

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Speaker 2: a lot of ways I think the hardliners did win

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Speaker 2: the argument. It's because the Iranians recognize that they have

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Speaker 2: to push this thing forward.

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Speaker 3: They have to tighten the screws.

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Speaker 2: On an economic level, on a military level, on a

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Speaker 2: political level, if they're going to get to a place

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Speaker 2: where there can be some sort of a resolution. Because

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Speaker 2: to your point, Sager, yeah, Trump might like a deal,

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Speaker 2: but he wants a deal that's a fantasy. He wants

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Speaker 2: a deal that didn't exist when they were negotiating the

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Speaker 2: MoU and sure as hell doesn't exist now. So until

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Speaker 2: you puncture that Trumpian fantasy, you're going to continue to

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Speaker 2: be in this cycle of escalation. So that's where we

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Speaker 2: are right now. Let me put one more piece up

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Speaker 2: on the screen here, We'll actually two more pieces, put

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Speaker 2: a three up on the screen. This is just the

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Speaker 2: oil prices, you know, as we're back to war now,

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Speaker 2: they continue to climb. I think we're at roughly ninety dollars.

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Speaker 2: This says a benchmark index for worldwide crude prices climb

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Speaker 2: nearly eight percent on Wednesday, crossing above ninety dollars a barrel.

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Speaker 2: Now this morning it is doubt a bit. I don't

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Speaker 2: know why, but there you go. But I would certainly

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Speaker 2: expect the trajectory on oil in general to be going

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Speaker 2: up between everything that's happening in the Middle East plus

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Speaker 2: Ukrainian attacks on Russia not helping the situation. So there

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Speaker 2: is that, and then this is pretty interesting. Put a

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Speaker 2: four up on the screen here about Jordan. Jordanian's rare

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Speaker 2: challenge to their leaders tell the US to leave. So

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Speaker 2: for the first time you really have an uproar at

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Speaker 2: kind of an elite level within Jordan saying hey, you

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Speaker 2: know this whole being besties with the US and hosting

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Speaker 2: their forces here, which is not even something the Jordanian

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Speaker 2: government really acknowledged until now when it's undeniable. That's not

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Speaker 2: working out so well for us. The article reads. Hunters

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Speaker 2: of Jordanian political, legal and other figure signed an open

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Speaker 2: letter last week calling for the withdrawal of US forces

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Speaker 2: from Jordan, in a rare public challenge to the government,

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Speaker 2: which is long cracked down on free speech and dissent

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Speaker 2: In recent weeks, Iranian missiles and drones have increasingly targeted

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Speaker 2: US military forces and installations in Jordan, including early Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: Iranian officials said the attacks have repeatedly set off sirens

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Speaker 2: across the kingdom and pulled the country further into a

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Speaker 2: war it wanted no part of, but most Jordanians have

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Speaker 2: remained silent. People who signed the letter said they were

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Speaker 2: driven by a sense of national responsibility and concern that

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Speaker 2: the troop presence endangered Jordanian sovereignty. We maintain that their

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Speaker 2: presence exposes Jordan to security, political and economic risks that

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Speaker 2: serve no national interest and increase the likelihood of our

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Speaker 2: country being dragged into a regional conflict to which it

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Speaker 2: is not a party. This is the polar opposite of

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Speaker 2: the logic that has held around the region for years

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Speaker 2: and years and years, and it is the same reversal

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Speaker 2: of logic that is occurring across the region where they're going. Hey,

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Speaker 2: I thought it would protect us to have these US

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Speaker 2: forces here. I thought that would keep us safer. Instead,

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Speaker 2: this is putting us and our sovereignty at risk, and

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Speaker 2: for a war that most of our population and much

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Speaker 2: of the Jordanian population by the way is Palestinian that

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Speaker 2: our population does not agree with, so we don't want

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Speaker 2: to do this anymore. Big picture, this is one more

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Speaker 2: blow to the entire long term US military strategy of

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Speaker 2: putting these bases all around the world, and then it

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Speaker 2: turns out we can't protect the bases, and the bases

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Speaker 2: end up being magnets for these sorts of attack that

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Speaker 2: piss off the allies were supposed to be protecting.

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Speaker 1: Couldn't any American sympathize? We're like, look, are alive. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to pick a random country, Switzerland. I don't know

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Speaker 1: if we have an a lie. It's technically a neutral country.

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Speaker 1: But everyone's like, okay, whatever, you know, yeah, what he

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Speaker 1: thinks about it? Ben Switzerland. Let's say hypothetically we're to

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Speaker 1: get into a war, Americans either get killed or missile start.

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Speaker 1: We're like, whoa, whoa, Like what's going on here? Exactly? Also,

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Speaker 1: just to underline how extraordinary this is, the government of

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Speaker 1: Jordan has prosecuted people for criticizing not just the Jordanian

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Speaker 1: monarchy but literally its own allies. So this was an

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Speaker 1: extraordinary move. But we've actually talked a lot of Jordan

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Speaker 1: is a very unstable country. You got a king and

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Speaker 1: the queen, you got a parliament. You kind of have

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Speaker 1: like this weird dictatorship over the country. Eighty percent of

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Speaker 1: the population is not even Jordanian. They're all Palestinian. Obviously

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Speaker 1: they're pissed off already because of what Israel has done

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Speaker 1: to Palestine. They have a significant amount of a refugee population.

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Speaker 1: So always a very unstable system in and of.

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Speaker 2: Its safe among which is basically a western city in

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Speaker 2: the rural areas, which are you know, much much different

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Speaker 2: life being lived there.

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Speaker 1: Totally. It's a gorgeous country. I highly recommend to business

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Speaker 1: if you ever have the time to do so. But

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Speaker 1: even if you know, even as an American barely spending

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Speaker 1: any time there, I'm like, this is a very strange

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Speaker 1: system that is going on. So then you add on

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Speaker 1: top of this is the Israel conflict and now direct

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Speaker 1: attacks on Jordanian soil, which as you said, they didn't

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Speaker 1: even know about in many of these cases, like everyone

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Speaker 1: knew their American military there, but to this extent, absolutely not.

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Speaker 1: And they have ballistic missiles that are coming in. So

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Speaker 1: this is a very dangerous and precarious situation for the

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Speaker 1: United States. And there will be two things that happened.

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Speaker 1: The allies, the Gulf allies, or any of these Arab

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Speaker 1: allies will have to make one choice. They will either

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Speaker 1: have to do a bear hug and say, okay, now

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Speaker 1: we have to go all in. This is kind of

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Speaker 1: the UAE and or Saudi strategy, or you're going to

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Speaker 1: go in the Jordanian direction, possibly another direction where they go, okay,

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Speaker 1: we're going to push you out in the long term

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Speaker 1: and you're going to significantly hurt you know that any

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Speaker 1: type of alliance. But the bedrock of American policy has

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Speaker 1: basically just been always to make a deal with the regimes,

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Speaker 1: the monarchies and pay them off the population. They use

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Speaker 1: the money, and you know, they kind of dole it

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Speaker 1: out patronage kind of system to keep everybody happy. This

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Speaker 1: has upended that dramatically, which again is an Iranian grand

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Speaker 1: strategic victory. If we were to look at now perceived

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Speaker 1: control over the Strait of Hormuz as well as fracturing

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Speaker 1: the alliances of the Gulf countries, all while domestically hurting

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Speaker 1: the President of the United States, bleeding the US economy,

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Speaker 1: and perhaps like most importantly, actually revealing this, you basically tearing,

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Speaker 1: showing the entire world what the US military is actually

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Speaker 1: capable of. To have this happen is the greatest blow

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Speaker 1: to US prestige and perceive power, which ultimately is power

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Speaker 1: in and of itself, in my entire life, more than Iraq,

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Speaker 1: more than Afghanistan. To have a declaration that we will

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Speaker 1: overthrow your regime and not and then to have the

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Speaker 1: straight closed despite the fact that it was open and

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Speaker 1: showed zero ability. I mean, the America Sentcom is bragging.

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Speaker 1: They're like, we've put five million barrels out of this

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Speaker 1: Strait of Hormuz. Sounds like a lot, but they did

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Speaker 1: the map. That's only five million barrels per day on average.

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Speaker 1: There were twenty million, twenty five million moving before the strait.

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Speaker 1: So it's like, wow, you know, the full might of

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Speaker 1: the empire, hundreds of billions of dollars and that's all

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Speaker 1: you could get. I mean nobody I would not have

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Speaker 1: thought that. And I'm a huge pessimist on the military.

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Speaker 1: We're much weaker than even I thought.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, absolutely, Like we showed our ass the whole world.

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Speaker 2: There's just no doubt about it. The whole strategy is flawed.

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Speaker 2: We're about to talk about, you know, the munition stockpile

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Speaker 2: and intercept our inventories, and that is a crucial immediate

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Speaker 2: term problem.

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Speaker 3: But I think the bigger problem.

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Speaker 2: Is just in the entire system and the entire strategy,

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Speaker 2: because and I saw policy tens are talking about this,

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Speaker 2: like let's say that the cupboards were full, to use

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Speaker 2: some Trumpian terminology here, that we hadn't given a bunch

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Speaker 2: of stuff to Ukraine, that we had everything that we need.

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Speaker 2: Do you really think that that was going to be

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Speaker 2: sufficient versus China? When you just think about they have

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Speaker 2: something like ninety five percent of the entire drone industries

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Speaker 2: in China. How does their industrial base compare to our

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Speaker 2: at this point? You guys, tell me which which side

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Speaker 2: has more industrial capacities? Spin up whatever they want? And

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Speaker 2: you know, Iran, they are a middle power. They are

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Speaker 2: certainly rising in power and prestige, but we can't even

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Speaker 2: compete against them. They've been much smarter, much more strategic,

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Speaker 2: and had a military that was much more prepared, better

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Speaker 2: prepared for waging modern warfare.

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Speaker 3: You know, this whole approach that we have is.

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Speaker 2: Just completely hollow, and so yeah, that has been thoroughly

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Speaker 2: revealed in this war. In a way that it really

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Speaker 2: wasn't in the Iraq war or in the Afghanistan war,

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Speaker 2: which we're also obviously embarrassing and you know, humiliating for

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Speaker 2: us in their own ways. Let's go ahead and turn

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Speaker 2: to those inventories, because this is a significant part of

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Speaker 2: the near term story, especially. I keep going back to

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Speaker 2: that NBC news report that we are all ready already

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Speaker 2: rationing interceptors having a pick and choose. Okay, we see

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Speaker 2: an Iranian ballistic missile coming in. Is this a really

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Speaker 2: important target? Our service member lives at risk? Are we

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Speaker 2: going to bother to actually try to take down these missiles?

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Speaker 2: Or are we going to just accept the damage here?

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Speaker 2: We're already in this place. So let's go ahead and

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Speaker 2: put a sixth up on the screen here. This has

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Speaker 2: some of the numbers and saga, why don't you go

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Speaker 2: ahead and explain what we're seeing here with the Patriot

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Speaker 2: and the THAD interceptors.

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Speaker 1: Right, And so CSI, first of all, can I just

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Speaker 1: debunk some Ben Shapiro level lunacy. So the latest coup

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Speaker 1: cope by the neocons is will missile stockpiles are classified again? CSIS.

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Speaker 1: The irony is is that CSIS here is basically an

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Speaker 1: arm of the Pentagon. They're like the most pro defense

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Speaker 1: think tank in all of Washington. So when they're publishing

434
00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:46,200
Speaker 1: these assessments, if they were completely bs the Pentagon, many

435
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: other people would say, oh, this is wrong. If they

436
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 1: have an entire page on their methodology, I recommend that

437
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,560
Speaker 1: you go read it. The TLDR is if you're skeptical.

438
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:57,480
Speaker 1: Especially The TLDR is basically that because Congress, all of

439
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:00,199
Speaker 1: these weapons have to be paid for. The Congress is

440
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: the person who funds are the people who fund the Pentagon,

441
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,880
Speaker 1: So the Pentagon have to make annual reports to Congress

442
00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 1: about what it's buying and what the general inventory levels.

443
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 1: This can give you an extraordinary amount of confidence about

444
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,880
Speaker 1: where the stockpiles were so pre war. And by the way,

445
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: when we say pre war, we're saying February twenty seventh.

446
00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,479
Speaker 1: It's actually very important to say those pre war numbers

447
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: were already catastrophically low because of what was going on

448
00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 1: in Ukraine and because of what happened both under Biden

449
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,439
Speaker 1: and Trump when we were shooting down a bunch of

450
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 1: Iranian missiles that were going after Israel. So all of

451
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 1: that being said, before the war February twenty seventh, the

452
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: number of patriots in the US arsenal was twenty three

453
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty. They can say this with absolute confidence.

454
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,919
Speaker 1: Now the current number as of July twenty seventh is

455
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: between seven hundred and fifty nine and eight hundred and

456
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 1: twenty seven. Just think about what a dramatic drop that

457
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: is in the overall stockpile. And just to give you

458
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,119
Speaker 1: a just to give you an idea of what it

459
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 1: means now for choices by the United States, President Zelenski,

460
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: while he was in the Oval office said that just

461
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: to get Ukraine through the summer, they need three hundred

462
00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,719
Speaker 1: patriots to be given to them, which would be almost

463
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: half of the stockpile. This currently exists just in the

464
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: US inventory alone. Also, for those who are complaining about

465
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: these numbers, these numbers include the replenishment that have come

466
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,320
Speaker 1: since the beginning of the war. Just again to show

467
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: you all how disastrous to suspend that that number is

468
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: actually worse. So four hundred and fifty two dads in

469
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: the US arsenal before the war on February twenty seventh,

470
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,520
Speaker 1: that was already twenty five percent lower than where it

471
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 1: was back in last June, I believe under Operation Midnight Hammer,

472
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 1: when the United States in the Twelve Day War fired

473
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,199
Speaker 1: twenty five percent of all thads that we had in

474
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,160
Speaker 1: the US stockpile, just to protect Israel, not to protect America,

475
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,719
Speaker 1: to protect Israel. The current number is now between two

476
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty four and two hundred and seventy eight.

477
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: Now remember that the number of new thads that are

478
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,360
Speaker 1: coming online into the system twelve. According to the Pentagon,

479
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 1: they take forever to build and they have massive contracts now.

480
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: But you can try and crash, you know, the defense

481
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: base and all of that. It's not going to work

482
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 1: unless it's like World War two total inventory. This is

483
00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: I mean, there's no other way to say it. This

484
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: is terrifying for the world because and look Taiwan, like,

485
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: let's put that aside, like because at that point, I

486
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,919
Speaker 1: don't even you know, even before all of this, the

487
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: CSIS war games from two years ago, when the stockpile

488
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: was much higher, CSIS again had a war game where

489
00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: they concluded the United States would lose. So that was

490
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,119
Speaker 1: then We're long past that. We're at a point where

491
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: South Korea, Japan, the Straight of Malacca. You know, you

492
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:41,600
Speaker 1: think you care about horror moves, go and take a

493
00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: look at Malacca and what moves through there on a

494
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: daily basis. Like we are now at a point where

495
00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 1: I'm talking about extremely critical situations, ones of either NATO

496
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 1: or quasi NATO type allies, where it starts to get

497
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: on the table. And somebody made a good point the

498
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 1: actual impact of this in the near term. We can

499
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 1: keep this pitoty stuff going with Iran for you know,

500
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: potentially another year or two. That's not the problem. The

501
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 1: problem is is that when the next president gets sworn

502
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: on sworn in in January twenty twenty nine, he's going

503
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: to get a briefing by the INDO Paycom, by the

504
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: you know, the people were responsible for that region, and

505
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: they're gonna be like, look sir, this is how money

506
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: we got, this is how many it's going to come online.

507
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 1: You can try and throw money at the problem. The

508
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: Trump administration certainly is, but the reality is that if

509
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 1: this X and Y happens, there's not a fucking thing

510
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: you can do about it. That's literally, I mean, that's

511
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: not my language, that's Trump's language. Whatever it comes to Taiwan,

512
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: he said that in twenty twenty so just to give people,

513
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,159
Speaker 1: you know, an example of what this means for the

514
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: retrenchment of the United States and part of why this

515
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 1: war has been so absolutely catastrophic. And we've seen it already.

516
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,120
Speaker 1: Let's put a eight up on the screen for example,

517
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 1: which we've talked about previously. The military has to now

518
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 1: start rationing. If anybody watched that movie that was on

519
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: Netflix about the nuclear strike, you know, there was a

520
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: nuclear missile as the whole plot is that it's incoming

521
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: to the United States and they only fire two ground

522
00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: based interceptors to shoot down the missile, and they fail,

523
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 1: and somebody in the control room or situation room is like,

524
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: why don't we fire another one? They're like, we can't.

525
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 1: We have to ration it because we only have forty

526
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: eight so in case, we have to save it for future.

527
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 1: So you have to sit there and let ten million

528
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,640
Speaker 1: people die. That's the most extreme example of what rationing

529
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: looks like. This is what rationing looks like on a

530
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 1: much more micro scale. We have all these bases spread

531
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: out across the world, and what is Iran telling us

532
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: We can hit you in Jordan, we can hit you

533
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,719
Speaker 1: in Saudi, we can hit you in Bahrain. We can

534
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 1: hit you in Kuwait, even in Egypt. You are not safe.

535
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 1: You know, you are not safe anywhere around this world.

536
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: And then what does that mean. It means that you

537
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: also have this Ukraine situation which is happening. They're begging

538
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: for three hundred missiles, by the way, just this morning,

539
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: and the Blacks either lighten up a bunch of Russian tankers, right,

540
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 1: so you could see the globalization of this conflict, the

541
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: extreme rationing which is happening. And I have not even

542
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 1: mentioned Asia, you know, in what's actually breaking out, which

543
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: is where any of this would actually be important. So

544
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: you know, it's not hyperbolic to say that this has

545
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 1: destroyed the ability in the near term of the United

546
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: States to project power around the world. It has actually

547
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 1: removed it in a dramatic sense. Even if we are

548
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: to throw money at the problem, which we are, it

549
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: will take years through replanet just to where we are

550
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: where we were, and where we were was already a disaster.

551
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,440
Speaker 2: And here's the thing that it appears that the Iranian

552
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: strategy was to use their older, more outdated missiles in

553
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 2: the beginning of the conflict so that we would burn

554
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 2: up our interceptor stockpiles dealing with those, and now they're

555
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 2: starting to deploy their more advance which is highly sophisticated

556
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 2: weaponry when we are in the position of having to ration.

557
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 2: So they've been very intelligent about that. They also we've

558
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: talked long about how they go after the radar systems

559
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 2: so that we have less ability to know what they're

560
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 2: doing and be able to intercept their missiles as they're

561
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: coming in. They've sort of, you know, in a very

562
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: systematic fashion, degraded our capacity there. And then if you

563
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 2: look at that chart of you know, what we have

564
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 2: in terms of patriots and thads, the number of thads

565
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: hasn't changed at all since the ceasefire, which would indicate,

566
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 2: I mean, not only did we not replenish, it would

567
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:24,640
Speaker 2: indicate we haven't been firing any We've basically stopped firing

568
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 2: fads because we are so limited in our inventory of

569
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 2: them at this point.

570
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: When the radar was hit by the Iranians, I think

571
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 1: on day one of yeah, the conflict and this, you know,

572
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: just to underscore like the total number is the whole world.

573
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: It's not just about what's happening in Sentcom. Remember how

574
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: we just strip all those thads out of South Korea.

575
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 1: I look at this, it's never coming back. It's not

576
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: coming back anytime soon. They should be real nervous up there,

577
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 1: you know, being neighbors forty five minutes away from the

578
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: fourth largest military in the world with a bunch of

579
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: nuclear tipped missiles. I mean, that's terrifying.

580
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 2: And it's not going to be like Jordan and the

581
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 2: Gulf Arab allies that are rethinking their whole approach to

582
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: how they deal with the US and how they deal

583
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: with China and the level of antagonism that they have

584
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 2: towards China, Russia, Iran, all of our allies are looking

585
00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: at this and rethinking their entire approach. And at the

586
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 2: same time, it's put a nine up on the screen.

587
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,960
Speaker 2: You know, it's been very, very difficult to accurately cover

588
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 2: what is happening, how much damage. We're having to rely

589
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: on these ocent accounts and satellite data that is frequently

590
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 2: out of date, or looking up with the Iranian say

591
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 2: and what they claim. And part of it is that

592
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: you are now having an even more aggressive crackdown on

593
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 2: information coming out of the region. So Centcom commander reportedly

594
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 2: said videos like this one that was shared previously that

595
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:47,000
Speaker 2: was someone a service member that was at that base

596
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 2: in Jordan when it was hit that we shared last time,

597
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 2: can help a run with targeting during missile and drone attacks,

598
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: and deployed US soldiers could soon be ordered to surrender

599
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 2: their phones. So they are really trying to crack down

600
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 2: on any sort of footage or documentation of the damage

601
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 2: that Iran has been able to inflict across the region,

602
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 2: both because of you know, I guess helping with targeting,

603
00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 2: although it seems to me like Iran is doing just

604
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,280
Speaker 2: fine with targeting those it didn't really need the service

605
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 2: members videos, but in addition, just for propaganda values, because

606
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 2: when you see this coming out, Yeah, you don't want

607
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: the American public seeing that Ron is able to strike

608
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: these bases and the fear and terror of our service

609
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 2: members and the amount of damage being done to our equipment.

610
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 2: There is a total blackout on information coming out of

611
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: the entire region, very Israeli coded.

612
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,040
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, they do. They literally do not want us

613
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 1: to see what our men and women are having to go. Honestly,

614
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: it is more equally terrifying when you look at that

615
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 1: because that video it's like an office, you know, it's

616
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: like sitting in an office like any normal but then

617
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: you run out and there's sirens going off and you're

618
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 1: running to a bomb shelter. I mean, you have a

619
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: vision of service members who get killed in combat as

620
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: like being on a front line or engaging about No,

621
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: that's not how it works anymore. It's coming from a

622
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: terrifying threat in the air from thousands of miles away

623
00:31:09,480 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: or you know, thousands of kilometers away. That is what's

624
00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: scary about this entire thing. And we can feel the

625
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 1: terror and try and put ourselves in that situation and say,

626
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: oh my god, I cannot believe that our people are

627
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: through that are going through this last thing. I just

628
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 1: want to highlight just to show you all, you know

629
00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 1: what they spend all our money on. Let's put this

630
00:31:27,480 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 1: next one up here on the screen. I mean, this

631
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 1: is bonkers. So just yesterday, the Pentagon has now committed

632
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: over one hundred and twenty billion dollars for Patriot missiles

633
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 1: and for submarines. This this includes half of this is

634
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 1: just for Patriot missiles from Lockheed Martin fifty nine billion.

635
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: Don't forget this is on top of an additional thirty

636
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: five billion dollar multi year contract for that interceptors that

637
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: Lockheed had all ready signed. So let's put together one

638
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars just to be able to rebuild many

639
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: of the munitions that were just fired already in the

640
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: Iran War and potentially stock up for in the years

641
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 1: to come. But even if you were to look deeply

642
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: inside of this the contract, which by the way, is

643
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: going to extend now for multi years because that's how

644
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: long it takes to be able to build, you also

645
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 1: would have to take a look and say, are we

646
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 1: even getting our money's worth? Remember the New Patriots cost

647
00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: four million apiece and take years to produce just one

648
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: of those missiles. So we're paying top dog. Just in

649
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,800
Speaker 1: case you're wondering, both Lockheed Martin and RTX, which is

650
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: a submarine builder, this month raised their twenty twenty six

651
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 1: profit and revenue projections on the strength of their ammunition

652
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 1: sales this America instead, and that's in their terms of

653
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: their profit right, so their profit's going up. We're getting

654
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 1: builked every time you pay your taxes. We pay our

655
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: quarterly taxes as business owners. This is the shit that

656
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: it's going to. You know, I was telling you about

657
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: my Amtrak experience. I'm not a huge national rail guy

658
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: or whatever, but on the estelic corridor. Yeah, I think

659
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 1: it makes sense, you know, in these highly connected cities.

660
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: So yesterday I was in New York. I'm coming home.

661
00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 1: I'm on the new AM track, the next gen AM track,

662
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: but which, by the way, I paid more for to

663
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 1: go from New York to Washington, DC than I paid

664
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: to go from Tokyo to Kyoto on a much better train,

665
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: which is built in the nineteen nineties. The train broke

666
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: down in the middle of nowhere. We had to get

667
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: off the train, literally in the middle of nowhere, and

668
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: go from one train to another train on a rinky

669
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,360
Speaker 1: dink little bridge and then sit on our suitcases in

670
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: the aisle. That happened here in the United States of

671
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: America yesterday, not just to me, to a lot hundreds

672
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 1: of other people. Okay. That's on a nationally funded AM

673
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: track with the next gen and hundreds of billions of

674
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 1: dollars from the United States government, from you know, New

675
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 1: York government, all these municipalities. This is what we spend

676
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: our money, you know, we spend our money on these missiles.

677
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: And then even when we do spend our money on

678
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: rail or innovation, or thing shit literally breaks down, would

679
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: never happen. You know, in Japan, they give you an

680
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 1: apology if something happened, if you're five minutes later, five

681
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:08,479
Speaker 1: seconds late, something like that, they give you a letter

682
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 1: saying we're very sorry for their disruption in our service.

683
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: I'm just giving an example of like, it's not woe

684
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: is me, but that's the state of our infrastructure of

685
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: our country. Not to mention all of our other economic problems.

686
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: And this we's been one hundred and twenty billion. Nobody

687
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,880
Speaker 1: even blinks an eye one hundred and twenty But do

688
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,839
Speaker 1: you have any you know how many Amtrak you could

689
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,720
Speaker 1: build if that's what you wanted to do. Yeah, cars, investment, whatever,

690
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: I don't care.

691
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 3: Here's here's some examples.

692
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 2: So for a one hundred and twenty billion dollar, you

693
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: could fund all of SNAP for a year, all of Snap.

694
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 2: You could institute universal pre K for the majority of

695
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 2: three and four year olds, right, you could fully expand headstart.

696
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 2: If you want to build housing, you could build somewhere

697
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 2: around six hundred thousand affordable apartment units or four hundred

698
00:34:49,600 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: and sixty one thousand basic housing units like of standalone

699
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: single home variety. So that's what we're talking about here,

700
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to just throw this all one hundred and

701
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: twenty billion. Of course, the military is getting even more money,

702
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 2: and then you look at the results. It genuinely is

703
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 2: mind boggling. What is the money going for? What are

704
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 2: we accomplishing with this money? And then you have Trump

705
00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:16,760
Speaker 2: out there making comments like, yeah, we can't have nice things.

706
00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: You know, it'd be nice to have affordable jod here.

707
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 2: We can't do that because we got to find our military. Really,

708
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 2: why what is our military doing? It's just you know,

709
00:35:24,680 --> 00:35:27,360
Speaker 2: revealing to the world that we have spent. All of

710
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 2: this is thrown at these defense industrial contractors. They are

711
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: making money hand over fist, and the whole strategy is

712
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 2: rotten to its core, but that won't stop them from continuing.

713
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 2: We need one hundred billion more and a hundred billion more.

714
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 2: The whole defense budgets got to go up to one

715
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 2: point five trillion Pete Hegseth tells us that the greatest

716
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 2: threat to America is that we don't fund the Defense

717
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 2: Department to a one point five trillion dollar price tag.

718
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 2: That is so incredibly insane. And think about your town,

719
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 2: Think about what a tiny fraction of that money could

720
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 2: mean for your town. It's crazy, as our infrastructure crumbles,

721
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 2: as our airports are disgusting, as you know, our bridges

722
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,439
Speaker 2: are degrade, all that stuff, the trains, the schools, all

723
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,439
Speaker 2: of it, and you know, in very minimal, bare bone

724
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 2: social safety net that's constantly being attacked and made even

725
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 2: more threadbare, and just money hand over fist into this

726
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: gaping maw which is the Pentagon.

727
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: It's so so absolutely insane. And yeah, look I'm not

728
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: a dove. I just think that we could build a

729
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: much more effective I think we can have both. I

730
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: really do. We're so phenomenally rich as a country. You

731
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:36,840
Speaker 1: could have I mean, look at the around you know,

732
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: twenty thousand dollars drones, thirty thousand dollar drones. If we

733
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 1: had to rethink of the entire thing. Yeah, we could

734
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 1: be safe. We could have a better strategy, it would

735
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: be cheaper, and we could have cool trains, we could

736
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: have cool roads, we could have cool cars. You know,

737
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 1: we could have all of it if we want it,

738
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 1: or just don't start a war. Don't have bases in

739
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: the middle of nowhere for literally no reason that are

740
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 1: just sitting there, you know, ready to be sitting ducks

741
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,919
Speaker 1: but yeah, this is where nobody in DC will say

742
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 1: one word about the eye popping number here. They won't

743
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:05,760
Speaker 1: even question how much it actually costs, the delivery timeline,

744
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 1: are we actually getting, you know, what we want from it?

745
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:11,160
Speaker 1: It is like that is the true bipartisan consensus, where

746
00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:12,360
Speaker 1: oh it's all good, it's just.

747
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, well they see it as like a jobs program.

748
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,600
Speaker 2: In there, it is just program and that's yeah. I mean,

749
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 2: that's increasingly what our economy is, like building, making bombs

750
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: and AI and gambling. That's what our economy is basically.

751
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:27,920
Speaker 2: So that's what our show's focused on.

752
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:35,160
Speaker 1: Let's get to Fauci. Okay, everybody trip down memory lane.

753
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:40,439
Speaker 1: Doctor Anthony Fauci of COVID fame returned to Capitol Hill

754
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: for to testify before the United States Senate, specifically after

755
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 1: the release of his new diary, which he apparently was

756
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:51,840
Speaker 1: keeping on a laptop computer owned by the federal government.

757
00:37:51,960 --> 00:37:55,480
Speaker 1: In eleven hundred pages, he reveled in his own fame

758
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: that was currently going on. He gave his thoughts about

759
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: the pandemic, about the President, about himself, about members of

760
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,800
Speaker 1: the press, but also, and I think most importantly about

761
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 1: whether COVID nineteen leaked from the Wuhan lab in twenty nineteen,

762
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: or whether it emerged naturally via the wet market or

763
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: some other finatural phenomenon out of China. So what we're

764
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 1: going to start with here is doctor Fauci testifying before Congress.

765
00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: When I say testifying, he delivered only an opening statement

766
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 1: attacking Senator Ran Paul, who had called him to testify before,

767
00:38:26,920 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 1: then saying he intended to plead the fifth to protect

768
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 1: himself from criminally incriminating himself before Congress. So let's take

769
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 1: a listen.

770
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:41,359
Speaker 4: Given Senator Poll's obvious obsession with calling for my prosecution,

771
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:49,359
Speaker 4: his repeated slanderous comments about me, and recently his publicly

772
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 4: releasing my unredacted personal diary aimed at embarrassing and intimidating me,

773
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 4: the only conclusion I can reach is that the sole

774
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:08,520
Speaker 4: reason he is calling me before this committee is to

775
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 4: get me to say something, anything, that could vindicate his

776
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 4: repeated public pledges that I end up in his words

777
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:26,480
Speaker 4: quote behind bars unquote. Any reasonable person who has followed

778
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 4: his unhinged obsession with me would readily come to the

779
00:39:33,000 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 4: same conclusion.

780
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 1: Therefore, although it pains.

781
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 4: Me to do so because of the respect I have

782
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 4: for the legislative branch of government and my decades long

783
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 4: record of cooperating with Congress. Under the advice of my attorneys,

784
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 4: I will invoke my right under the Fifth Amendment of

785
00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 4: the Constitution to refrain from answering you have questions?

786
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 1: Do you have that in front of you? On the

787
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: Advisive Council?

788
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 4: I respectfully declined to answer it based upon my rights

789
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:10,520
Speaker 4: under the Fifth Amendment.

790
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 1: Let the Constitution. Let the record record.

791
00:40:13,480 --> 00:40:16,759
Speaker 5: That the witness has refused to answer whether there's a

792
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 5: folder in front of him based on his Fifth Amendment right.

793
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,399
Speaker 5: Have you refused this pardon or do you have any

794
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 5: reason to believe this full and unconditional pardon, this grant

795
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 5: of immunity would somehow require you to plead the Fifth Amendment.

796
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 4: On the Advisive Council, I respectfully declined to answer based

797
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 4: upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.

798
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 5: Do you still refuse to answer the questions.

799
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: On the Advisive Council?

800
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 4: I respectfully declined to answer it based upon my rights

801
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:51,240
Speaker 4: under the Fifth.

802
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:52,319
Speaker 1: Amendment of the Constitution.

803
00:40:53,880 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 5: Were you ever made aware of gain of function research

804
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 5: on monkey pox being conducted at the National Biodefense Analysis

805
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,600
Speaker 5: and Countermeasure Center, and back at fourteen dreck.

806
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 4: On the advice of Council, I respectfully declined to answer

807
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 4: based upon my rights under the Fifth Amendment of the Constitution.

808
00:41:14,760 --> 00:41:17,000
Speaker 1: So that was the entire thing. You could see his

809
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:20,839
Speaker 1: opening statement there. He still believes he's being unfairly prosecuted,

810
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: specifically around what happened with COVID nineteen, whether it leaked

811
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 1: from the lab or not. And there actually were a

812
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: lot of clues in Fauci's diary. So let's go ahead

813
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: and put this up here on the screen. All of

814
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 1: these have been released from Fauci's own diary, which again

815
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 1: he wrote on a federal government laptop, eleven hundred pages

816
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 1: or so. This is actually probably the single most important quote.

817
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 1: And for everyone who has currently joining us for the subject,

818
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: I know that it's all get quite a bit tedious.

819
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: We used to have all the details completely memorized and

820
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 1: here on lab leak, so I'll try to, you know,

821
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,680
Speaker 1: simplify it as much as I can. So here, Senator

822
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: Paul writes that from Fauci's own diary, he says, quote,

823
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: now we know the the market was not the source.

824
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,720
Speaker 1: It was the amplifier. So to make that very clear,

825
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 1: what Fauci was writing there was quote, now we know

826
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:11,320
Speaker 1: that the wet market aka the wet market were allegedly

827
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 1: the bats and the other animals and you forget the

828
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,399
Speaker 1: pangolins and all that were being sold, was not the

829
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: source of COVID nineteen. Quote, it was the amplifier. The amplifier,

830
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: by the way, that theory makes sense if you trace

831
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 1: back the timeline of when COVID nineteen, in my belief,

832
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 1: leaked from the Wuhan lab. Now, what this also explains

833
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 1: already is that as of January twenty twenty, in this

834
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,319
Speaker 1: initial entry he says that the wet market was off

835
00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: the table in his own private notes. In his defense,

836
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: if you read the totality of the diary, what he's

837
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:44,400
Speaker 1: saying is, now we know that the market was not

838
00:42:44,440 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 1: the source. It was the amplifier. In the context of

839
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,719
Speaker 1: wrestling of whether it leaked from the lab.

840
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 2: Or not, he says, having said that somewhere the virus

841
00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 2: jump from animals to humans. So he's just indicating here, Okay,

842
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 2: the timeline doesn't work out for it to be the

843
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 2: wet market, but in his diary he's claiming he still

844
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 2: believes that it was zoonotic transmission from animal to human

845
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 2: and not allatly right.

846
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,560
Speaker 1: And so then this is where getting to the timeline.

847
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 1: And again I apologize if this is a bit tedious,

848
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: but it does matter for whether any of this happened

849
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:17,760
Speaker 1: and what the actual cover up was, which, in my opinion,

850
00:43:17,800 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 1: is the actual crime if you were to say of

851
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,400
Speaker 1: all of this. So what happened is that as of

852
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: January thirty first, so five days after he makes this entry,

853
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: he says that there are now conspiracy theories that the

854
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: virus was given gain a function via inserted mutations and

855
00:43:31,680 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 1: released in Wuhan, as in he was aware of and

856
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 1: naming the engineered hypothesis. The next day, on February first,

857
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 1: he has a secret call. Again, none of this was

858
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: disclosed to the American people at the time of leading virologists.

859
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: There were some let's say, there were twelve virologists that

860
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 1: were on this call. Ten out of the twelve did

861
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 1: not believe entirely in the natural origin hypothesis. Two of

862
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:00,759
Speaker 1: them did. So what Fauci did is to to one

863
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: of those scientists, Anderson, to draft a paper called Proximal Origin,

864
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: which is then published nationally in a leading medical magazine.

865
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: That paper then becomes the basis through which Fauci is

866
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 1: able to come before the American people in February and

867
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,719
Speaker 1: in March and to say that independent scientific research has

868
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: now backed up the claim that COVID nineteen came from

869
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 1: the wet market aka zoonotic transmission aka not from the

870
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:33,120
Speaker 1: Wuhan lab. He also, and we can actually show this

871
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 1: before if we want to, please, had several instances in

872
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 1: which he spoke with the head of China's own CDC

873
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 1: and in fact you had been transmitted very incorrect information

874
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 1: or sorry, correct information which he then did not distribute

875
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:52,399
Speaker 1: to the public. For example, gu confirmed that asymptomatic people

876
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,880
Speaker 1: with COVID could transmit Fauci wrote that the Wuhan of

877
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: Health officials did not tell him this, and thus he

878
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,760
Speaker 1: gave out false information, a lapse quote that likely allowed

879
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,680
Speaker 1: the outbreak to take hold. This all reflects back on

880
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 1: the original discourse in Fauci's own testimony and guidance to

881
00:45:08,200 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: the American people about whether they should or should not

882
00:45:11,080 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 1: wear a mask. There's also, in my opinion, when we

883
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: really look at a lot of the Lab League coverage,

884
00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 1: the fact is is that inside of this diary it

885
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 1: details even more of what we knew previously about the

886
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: cover up of the potential lab league hypothesis. And I

887
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: will say here again I cannot say with one hundred

888
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 1: percent certainty that COVID leaked from the Lab. I could

889
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 1: give you ninety five percent. The only reason that I

890
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 1: can't give you one hundred percent is because China destroyed

891
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 1: most of the evidence. And I think ultimately what this

892
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 1: comes down to is this general like there's I get it.

893
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,760
Speaker 1: It's so parts. You know, one of the Republican senators

894
00:45:46,760 --> 00:45:48,000
Speaker 1: what did he say is like who the fuck do

895
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 1: you think you are? I'm like, okay, man, Like you know,

896
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 1: it's like we're doing the dance six years later. In

897
00:45:52,800 --> 00:45:54,040
Speaker 1: a certain respect, I.

898
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:56,320
Speaker 2: Do want pretending that it wasn't Trump was and it was,

899
00:45:57,440 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 2: by the.

900
00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: Way, totally fair. And I think you know, with the

901
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: Lab leak, we had Annie Jacobson on about biological war.

902
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 1: And if you're a LIB, you want RFK Junior running

903
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: all these BSL four laboratories. You want Pete Hegseth in

904
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 1: charge of military anthrax and all of these other bioweapons

905
00:46:14,880 --> 00:46:17,560
Speaker 1: that are in our face, Like this is not partisan.

906
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: The point is is that we got lucky with COVID.

907
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: This sounds crazy to say, had a one percent, you know,

908
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 1: fatality rate, mostly old people and fat people. If this

909
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: was the Spanish flu or something like that and it

910
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 1: actually affected young adults and children, I mean, it would

911
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: have been madness and we would have had millions more

912
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 1: people that would have been killed. So the point is

913
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,560
Speaker 1: is like, we actually have to reconcile with lab leak

914
00:46:41,640 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: and what happened here just to be able to deal

915
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: with whatever the next pandemic is, and instead we've had

916
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 1: total partisan retrenchment on what I again think is a

917
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 1: very basic issue of elite from the LAB. We have

918
00:46:53,520 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: done multiple monologues and segments here on the show over

919
00:46:56,280 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: the years. Fauci definitely covered it up, and on top

920
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 1: of that, he gave a lot of incorrect information, which

921
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:04,879
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the crime was is he never admitted it.

922
00:47:04,960 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: You know, whenever it came to mass whenever it came

923
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 1: to school closures and many of these other things, he

924
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 1: retrenched entirely and that he acted very nobly. And what's

925
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 1: also obvious from his diary entry is he reveled in

926
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 1: the media attention. He said crazy ass things like I

927
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:22,920
Speaker 1: am the science. I mean, he was a total egomaniac.

928
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,320
Speaker 1: And you know, you don't have to be a crazy

929
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 1: right winger to be like, yeah, this person really destroyed

930
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: a lot of public faith in the CDC and the

931
00:47:32,080 --> 00:47:35,759
Speaker 1: NIH and the entire scientific establishment from running a lot

932
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:37,880
Speaker 1: of his responsor in COVID. There are many other criminals

933
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:39,760
Speaker 1: that are involved, but you know, in my opinion, Fauci

934
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 1: is primarily one of them.

935
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think that comment about I am

936
00:47:43,000 --> 00:47:45,800
Speaker 2: science or I am the science is very revealing because

937
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 2: what you see with I think the most charitable interpretation

938
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 2: you could give to Fauci is that he thought it

939
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: was probably zoonotic transmission. But rather than putting out to

940
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:01,840
Speaker 2: the public like here are the competing theories, here's evidence

941
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:04,120
Speaker 2: on the side, here's evidence on that side, and allowing

942
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 2: the public to live in some measure of uncertainty, he

943
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 2: wanted to have no, here's the definitive answer. I can

944
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: point to case closed. And maybe he just wanted that

945
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 2: because we see in other examples where he had a

946
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 2: similar approach of let me put something out there that

947
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 2: is not technically correct, but I think is a better

948
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 2: thing for the public that to manage their emotions. He

949
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,840
Speaker 2: saw that more as his role than actually reading the

950
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 2: public in on the totality and the messiness and the reality.

951
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:39,480
Speaker 2: You know, especially as the new virus pandemic, you're gathering signs,

952
00:48:39,480 --> 00:48:41,719
Speaker 2: you're figuring out what's going on. There's going to inherently

953
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 2: be messiness and uncertainty in that, and he didn't think

954
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 2: the public could handle that. But the other piece, obviously

955
00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,000
Speaker 2: with the lab leak in particular, is that there's also

956
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,880
Speaker 2: a self interested motive of NIH's funding some of this

957
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 2: research to directly connected to this lab.

958
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 3: Some of the other.

959
00:48:56,400 --> 00:48:59,800
Speaker 2: Characters involved are directly implicated in terms of the research

960
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 2: that was being done, and so you also have this

961
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 2: self interested motive of like, I don't want the finger

962
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 2: pointed at us and what we're doing, and we want

963
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,640
Speaker 2: to continue to do this gain of function research even

964
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: though it is profoundly dangerous. You know, when we talk

965
00:49:12,600 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 2: to Annie Jacobson, I asked her the question. You know,

966
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 2: biological weapons are illegal, right, They're completely banned, and yet

967
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,719
Speaker 2: what we do in these labs is messing around with

968
00:49:24,800 --> 00:49:28,719
Speaker 2: things that could be bioweapons. How do they draw the

969
00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:33,280
Speaker 2: line between bioweapons development and quote unquote gain of function research.

970
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 2: And it's basically a gigantic loophole. So that's, you know,

971
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 2: that's the way people should think about this. And you know,

972
00:49:39,640 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 2: in terms of this proximal origin paper, which really becomes

973
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:48,200
Speaker 2: this lynchpin in saying it was do not extreme switch,

974
00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:50,759
Speaker 2: it was not a lab leak, all of these scientists

975
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,240
Speaker 2: degree very like definitive language that was used.

976
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:55,920
Speaker 3: You can see behind the scenes.

977
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 2: The lead author, just before this was published, said that

978
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 2: a lab leak was quote friggin' likely, wrote that the

979
00:50:03,520 --> 00:50:07,280
Speaker 2: main issue is that accidental escape is in fact highly likely.

980
00:50:07,320 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 2: It's not some fringe issue. Another co author wrote that

981
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 2: the virus easily could have leaked from a lab. Now

982
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: they claim, oh, well that was a little earlier, and

983
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 2: then we looked into and we decided, no, it is

984
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 2: do not. It is you know, from an animal to

985
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 2: a human. And so that's why it was so definitive

986
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: in the paper. But it seems hard to believe that

987
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 2: since there was no new information that had really come

988
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 2: out to put your you know, some on the scales

989
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 2: in the direction of this is coming from an animal,

990
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 2: that they still harbored at least some doubts and yet

991
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 2: what was presented in this paper was very concrete, and

992
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,280
Speaker 2: then what you know, what happens from there. It becomes

993
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:47,879
Speaker 2: pushed out to a lot of scientific journalists. Just accept this, Okay, well,

994
00:50:47,920 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: we've settled this question.

995
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 3: It came from an animal.

996
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,240
Speaker 2: We're moving forward, all of that research into the actual

997
00:50:53,239 --> 00:50:56,800
Speaker 2: oranges origin. Sudden gets pushed out to the fringes. And meanwhile,

998
00:50:56,840 --> 00:50:59,680
Speaker 2: as Sagar's pointing out, the discourse on this is just

999
00:50:59,719 --> 00:51:03,000
Speaker 2: so and so toxic at this point, it's almost hopelessly

1000
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 2: damaged beyond repair, even though you know, it continues to

1001
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:09,359
Speaker 2: matter how this happened, and maybe we should change our

1002
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 2: policies in our approach here so that it doesn't ultimately

1003
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 2: happen again.

1004
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 1: We let's talk about schoclosure. I mean, that was the

1005
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 1: second two lab leak, the most consequential thing that will

1006
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:20,280
Speaker 1: affect this nation. Test scores have never recovered from the pandemic.

1007
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:23,359
Speaker 1: It still remains a literal lost generation. Not to mention

1008
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 1: drug use, alcohol abuse, all kinds of things that happened

1009
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 1: sociologically as a result of this. In his diary, Fauci

1010
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 1: says that he convinced the New York City mayor to

1011
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: close schools, and he influenced Cania school closures. In twenty

1012
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 1: twenty two, in an ABC News interview, he said quote,

1013
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 1: I had nothing to do with school closures. It's literally

1014
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 1: a lie. It's a bald faced lie. He told multiple

1015
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 1: times Francis Collins, for example, to please delete his emails

1016
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,879
Speaker 1: after you read it, which is directly in contravention of

1017
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 1: his need to preserve records for Congress and for Foya,

1018
00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: by the way, and for future historians. He said, quote,

1019
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,760
Speaker 1: if anybody is lying, Senator, it is you. Whenever Paul

1020
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: directly asked him about deleting information, he said he redefined

1021
00:52:06,480 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 1: Remember when he redefined gain of function by saying that

1022
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 1: we no longer did gain a function. It's a total lie.

1023
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 1: And ultimately what this is is he became a genuine egomaniac.

1024
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 1: Let's put B five up here on the screen. In

1025
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: his diaries, quote the press is going wild with me.

1026
00:52:24,239 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: He talks about how flattering it is. He talks about

1027
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,440
Speaker 1: how cool it was for him that when he shows

1028
00:52:30,520 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 1: up to the White House, he no longer has to

1029
00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,719
Speaker 1: give his ID because the Secret Service recognized who he was.

1030
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 1: He revels in Oprah and all of these other celebrities

1031
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: coming to his defense. You can go through and read

1032
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:47,319
Speaker 1: all of this for yourself. It's all public knowledge, like

1033
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 1: this is who the guy became embodied in the I

1034
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 1: am the science question And that's why. I mean it's

1035
00:52:55,719 --> 00:52:57,960
Speaker 1: a tragedy like what has happened, as I said, like

1036
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 1: we got entirely lucky and we blew our stack with

1037
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:05,840
Speaker 1: Lockdown's vaccine development, Trump and all of that. The loss

1038
00:53:05,840 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 1: of public faith. Just imagine if we had a real

1039
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,240
Speaker 1: if we had another pandemic, if we had Spanish flu today,

1040
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:13,360
Speaker 1: what is going to happen with? What is going to

1041
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:16,279
Speaker 1: happen we have ARCA, we had fouch, Like are we

1042
00:53:16,320 --> 00:53:18,360
Speaker 1: going to close schools or not? I mean that's going

1043
00:53:18,440 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 1: to be a serious question. What are we going to do?

1044
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:24,280
Speaker 1: Is there a vaccine to do it or not? Who's

1045
00:53:24,320 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 1: going to publish the information? We wear a mask? Should

1046
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,239
Speaker 1: we not wear a mask? I mean just imagine like

1047
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 1: fifteen days to stop the spread. Anybody gonna believe that?

1048
00:53:32,880 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 1: Like which scientists do we turn to? Do we turn

1049
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 1: to Fauci and all the other officials over the CDC

1050
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 1: who lied to us? Do we trust Rkade Junior and

1051
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:44,080
Speaker 1: doctor Marty Mackrey. This is a serious problem that we

1052
00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 1: all have, right And that's kind of my point and

1053
00:53:47,280 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 1: just overarching to the Annie Jacobson point. Yeah, you know,

1054
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 1: screw the Wall Street Journal. I don't know why, but

1055
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: they did not credit her book. They ran an entire

1056
00:53:55,320 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: piece about how with AI biological weapons are now much

1057
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: easier to manufacture and that many AI models have no

1058
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 1: guardrails in place to tell you how to in a

1059
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,400
Speaker 1: high school chemistry set be able to manufacture a highly

1060
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:12,439
Speaker 1: infectious either disease or gain a function like some type

1061
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: of thing. They gave her zero credit, even though she

1062
00:54:14,560 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 1: literally lays that out in her entire book. It can happen.

1063
00:54:17,840 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 1: It can happen very very easily. And now what I

1064
00:54:21,320 --> 00:54:24,680
Speaker 1: mean that with this public health infrastructure, in my opinion,

1065
00:54:24,840 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 1: because of him, you know, we really are in a

1066
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 1: very very bad place. And that's just my last thing

1067
00:54:30,239 --> 00:54:33,319
Speaker 1: is with Fauci is he literally got a pardon, a

1068
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:37,440
Speaker 1: blanket pardon from Biden, which he had said publicly, I

1069
00:54:37,480 --> 00:54:40,960
Speaker 1: will have no problem testifying before the US Senate, so

1070
00:54:41,200 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: he has no potential criminal liability. He has a federal

1071
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:48,359
Speaker 1: blanket pardon from the United States President. He literally, you know,

1072
00:54:48,480 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 1: got the he said previously I had nothing to hide,

1073
00:54:52,160 --> 00:54:55,880
Speaker 1: and then ultimately, after his diary and all that is submitted,

1074
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,200
Speaker 1: he has to plead the fifth. So look, pleading the

1075
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,720
Speaker 1: fifth is not technically you know that you're hiding something,

1076
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: But in my opinion, it does demonstrate like very clearly

1077
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:07,480
Speaker 1: that on his own merits, he cannot stand by much

1078
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:09,440
Speaker 1: of what he said in the middle of the pandemic.

1079
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:11,160
Speaker 1: That's not even just a Partison point. I just think

1080
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 1: that's a fact at this point. All right, let's move on,

1081
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:19,239
Speaker 1: shall we turning down to some crazy rumblings going on

1082
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: in the stock market, including South Korea, many chip manufacturers,

1083
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 1: our own tech companies, and perhaps here the very first

1084
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 1: glaring sign of margin gone wrong with AI stocks and

1085
00:55:29,640 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 1: a potential bubble collapse. Let's put this up here on

1086
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 1: the screen, Leopol. I'm not going to try and say

1087
00:55:34,360 --> 00:55:36,320
Speaker 1: his last year. I think it's going to say Ashenberger's

1088
00:55:36,320 --> 00:55:40,160
Speaker 1: his situational awareness. Hedge fund is now quote seeking to

1089
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 1: raise capital after an AI route. The reason why this

1090
00:55:44,160 --> 00:55:47,399
Speaker 1: is important is that this hedge fund, twenty billion dollar

1091
00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 1: hedge fund was founded by a former Open AI employee

1092
00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: who now needs quote fresh capital after heavy losses in

1093
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:59,359
Speaker 1: recent AI stock selloffs. The fund had previously posted a

1094
00:55:59,440 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 1: four hundred and thirty nine percent net return for the

1095
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 1: year through the end of June, which means now that

1096
00:56:05,640 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 1: it is July thirtieth, he is now lost Nearly the

1097
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 1: entirety of the fund was hurt by a July downturn

1098
00:56:13,360 --> 00:56:16,680
Speaker 1: leverage or amplified by its use of leverage to manu

1099
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:22,240
Speaker 1: magnify returns. Its hardest hit large positions include Oracle and AMD,

1100
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,520
Speaker 1: which are each down twenty percent for the month, along

1101
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:29,640
Speaker 1: with the smaller bets like Nebuist, Sharon Ai, Bloom Energy,

1102
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:32,960
Speaker 1: and sand Disc. For context, the Nasdaq one hundred has

1103
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 1: down ten percent in July, and South Korea's COSPI has

1104
00:56:36,160 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 1: lost roughly a third of its valued. He says now

1105
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,440
Speaker 1: that the fund was not immune to the turbulence, but

1106
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:46,840
Speaker 1: framed the selloff as creating attractive buying opportunities, inviting investors

1107
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:49,840
Speaker 1: now to add cash so that he continue the strategy,

1108
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:53,360
Speaker 1: and he says the anthropic IPO is a potential catalyst

1109
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:55,920
Speaker 1: for his recovery. So why does that matter? This is

1110
00:56:55,960 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 1: the first person to actually get wiped out, at least

1111
00:56:58,560 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 1: so far. If nobody gives him any more money on

1112
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 1: these leverage bets on AI. The initial downturn is indicative

1113
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 1: of a dramatically changing geopolitical situation, not just to mention

1114
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: a financial market situation. Let's start with South Korea. We'll

1115
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 1: put C three up here on the screen. South Korea

1116
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 1: has now had a stock market at a three month

1117
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 1: low with a massive AI selloff. Samsung and Skhinex have

1118
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:26,080
Speaker 1: fell by more than ten percent quote renewed fears over

1119
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:31,240
Speaker 1: AI spending and Chinese competition. Investors were ditching their chip

1120
00:57:31,280 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 1: stocks on Tuesday, rising concern about the huge amount of

1121
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 1: borrowing from AI companies, and South Korean semiconductor companies specifically

1122
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 1: fell by more than ten to ten percent, with their

1123
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 1: entire index down by eleven point five percent back to

1124
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:48,000
Speaker 1: mid April. But the stock sell off itself is more

1125
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: indicative of what is going on beneath the behind the scenes,

1126
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 1: in terms of the rising problems with the amount of

1127
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:56,960
Speaker 1: debt that these AI companies have, the amount that they

1128
00:57:56,960 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: have to invest in these chips, and China actually the

1129
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:02,360
Speaker 1: big one that a lot of the Western press just

1130
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 1: doesn't want to deal with. And that's when I'll get

1131
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 1: your take here. Chrystal ce four on the screen. Chinese

1132
00:58:08,080 --> 00:58:13,160
Speaker 1: chip Champion CXMT whenever it debuted, came out with four

1133
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty six percent pop on the Chinese Stock

1134
00:58:16,680 --> 00:58:20,720
Speaker 1: Exchange because of their ability basically to prove not only

1135
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:23,560
Speaker 1: with their AI with their AI fever gripping their own

1136
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 1: stock market, but it was about domestic chip manufacture, which

1137
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:31,440
Speaker 1: has always been their biggest problem. America relies both on

1138
00:58:31,480 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 1: Taiwan and these South Korean companies to boost our chip manufacturing,

1139
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 1: basically the Western Alliance kind of, if you will. The

1140
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 1: dream for the Chinese has been to disaggregate themselves from

1141
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 1: Alliance on Nvidia chip design and Taiwan as well, and

1142
00:58:44,800 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 1: this is one of the first times that they have

1143
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,640
Speaker 1: the ability to build out their own infrastructure. A lot

1144
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 1: of this is very reductive and like it's very complicated,

1145
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:55,360
Speaker 1: et cetera. But the bottom line is, like the South

1146
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:58,720
Speaker 1: Korean and Asian markets, the Western markets do, Western Allied

1147
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,720
Speaker 1: markets not doing very well. American companies like Meta as

1148
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 1: of this morning posting a ten percent loss, you have

1149
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:08,479
Speaker 1: significant losses by this hedge fund. Chinese chip manufacture going up,

1150
00:59:08,680 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 1: and a lot of it portends very badly for any

1151
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:13,280
Speaker 1: potential bubble conversation.

1152
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,400
Speaker 2: The question is are these canaries in the coal mine?

1153
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 2: And it looks very much like it, because the South

1154
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:21,160
Speaker 2: Korean stock market, which has collapsed and the taking down,

1155
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 2: I mean to retail investors are just like utterly screwed

1156
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 2: because of course they saw the stock market going crazy,

1157
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 2: they got in on the action, many of them around

1158
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 2: its peak that it's been nothing but destruction since then.

1159
00:59:32,640 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 2: In any case, the South Korean stock market is heavily

1160
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: dependent on these chip stocks. It's like half of the

1161
00:59:40,320 --> 00:59:43,479
Speaker 2: stock market is represented in these ship stocks. So when

1162
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 2: they take a tumble, the whole thing goes down and

1163
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:48,200
Speaker 2: it's a disaster. So is that a canary in the

1164
00:59:48,240 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 2: coal mine? And then this guy with his hedge fund,

1165
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 2: his whole thing was, I am betting on the AI revolution.

1166
00:59:54,760 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 2: I'm betting on the need for all of this compute,

1167
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:01,320
Speaker 2: all of these chips. I'm betting against software companies because

1168
01:00:01,360 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 2: I think AI is going to come in and displace them.

1169
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,479
Speaker 2: So now with him basically saying, Okay, those bets didn't

1170
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 2: work out, I may have to unwind this whole thing.

1171
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,320
Speaker 3: Well, what do you think our entire economy.

1172
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 2: Is a bet on at this point, it's a very

1173
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 2: similar bet that our whole economy is making on the

1174
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 2: AI revolution. So that's why these things are incredibly important

1175
01:00:21,560 --> 01:00:23,760
Speaker 2: to take a look at. And now in South Korea

1176
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:27,000
Speaker 2: with their stock market was you've also because you had

1177
01:00:27,120 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 2: so many retail investors get in and so many of

1178
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 2: them buy them using debt basically on margin. Now as

1179
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:37,520
Speaker 2: those stock prices go down and they're experiencing those margin calls,

1180
01:00:37,520 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 2: then they have to sell more and more and more,

1181
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 2: and that creates a self fulfilling prophecy. But to Soccer's point,

1182
01:00:44,160 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 2: a lot of this does come back to China. They

1183
01:00:47,720 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 2: have made this extraordinary push partly because of our own

1184
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 2: chips export controls that force them into the direction of okay,

1185
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 2: we're going to have to be self reliant. Now, they

1186
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 2: haven't caught up, but they're getting a lot closer, and

1187
01:01:01,760 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 2: I think no one would bet against them. I mean,

1188
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:05,680
Speaker 2: just look surely at the human capital the number of

1189
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,400
Speaker 2: engineers that they graduate versus US, like, it's not even comparable.

1190
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 2: And they have a nationwide strategic emphasis as part of

1191
01:01:13,560 --> 01:01:16,280
Speaker 2: their five year plan on this sector. They are going

1192
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 2: to continue to develop, They are going to continue to

1193
01:01:18,560 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 2: get better and then when you look at the way

1194
01:01:21,080 --> 01:01:25,200
Speaker 2: that their AI models have basically nearly or you know,

1195
01:01:25,240 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 2: have matched the frontier models here, they do it requiring

1196
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 2: a lot less compute. It's much more efficient kind of

1197
01:01:33,280 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 2: destroying and undermining the entire business model that Open Ai,

1198
01:01:37,320 --> 01:01:40,160
Speaker 2: Anthropic and our other you know, big AI development companies

1199
01:01:40,200 --> 01:01:44,320
Speaker 2: here have pursued. Yeah, this is the ground shifting. These

1200
01:01:44,360 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 2: are the canaries in the coal mine. This is the

1201
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 2: quicksand that this whole thing could could sink into.

1202
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 1: Ultimately, let's put C five up here on the screen

1203
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,440
Speaker 1: to bolster that point. This is about chip lithography. So

1204
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 1: again I'm not an expert. I'm doing my best. This

1205
01:01:58,280 --> 01:02:00,920
Speaker 1: is all very complicated. This was one of the major

1206
01:02:01,000 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 1: bottlenecks for China. So what they write is that China

1207
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 1: has now potentially made a significant breakthrough in chip making equipment.

1208
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 1: The information a state back firm in Shanghai has now

1209
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 1: figured out how to build immersion deep ultraviolet known as

1210
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 1: DUV lithography tools, which is capable of manufacturing the most

1211
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 1: widely used chips. This is technology which has long been

1212
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:27,080
Speaker 1: dominated by the Netherlands ASML, which means that China is

1213
01:02:27,120 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 1: now progressing faster than outsider is expected in a push

1214
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:34,680
Speaker 1: for semiconductor self efficiency. If you compare this DUV chip

1215
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 1: making advance with China to the CXMT stock that I

1216
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 1: talked about very previously, you pair those two things together,

1217
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:44,800
Speaker 1: what you see is that you basically have a situation

1218
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 1: where you have chip manufacture which is now becoming one

1219
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: of the bull areas of Chinese investment. And it also

1220
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:56,040
Speaker 1: means that what they're creating is the ability to compete

1221
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:59,040
Speaker 1: both with the United States with South Korea, all at

1222
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 1: a time of a men's speculation from the United States

1223
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:06,400
Speaker 1: and or a mense speculation in the United States and

1224
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 1: a potential bubble burst which could rip a lot of

1225
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:11,480
Speaker 1: the capital out of this. That is the big picture

1226
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:14,200
Speaker 1: problem as to why I think all of this matters.

1227
01:03:14,240 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 1: And generally, I mean you can see here. Let's put

1228
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:19,120
Speaker 1: see one for example up on the screen. I mean

1229
01:03:19,240 --> 01:03:23,640
Speaker 1: sand Disk got absolutely wiped out in terms of a

1230
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:28,040
Speaker 1: thirty percent loss over the week. I think it's down, yeah,

1231
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:31,160
Speaker 1: fifty four percent in July, the S and P five

1232
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,920
Speaker 1: hundred's biggest loser. They continue to look at a lot

1233
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:36,919
Speaker 1: of these different stocks, and you know, just to be fair,

1234
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:39,480
Speaker 1: let's see stocks are a little bit up this morning,

1235
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,440
Speaker 1: so it's not really about you know, our own s

1236
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 1: and P. Five hundred. We're looking specifically at the technology

1237
01:03:44,400 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 1: sector and these chip manufacturers. But you had Meta that

1238
01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 1: also posted a significant loss. Let's put CE seven please

1239
01:03:52,960 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 1: up on the screen. The stuff really matters. Their stock,

1240
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:57,600
Speaker 1: I think is down by about ten percent as of

1241
01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 1: this morning. All of this because of weaker than expected

1242
01:04:00,680 --> 01:04:03,280
Speaker 1: revenue forecast, and it took a big hit to its

1243
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 1: cash pile. So basically what they said, analysts were expecting

1244
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 1: a guidance of sixty three billion dollars in revenue. The

1245
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:13,280
Speaker 1: company had said that assumes foreign currency, et cetera. But

1246
01:04:13,640 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 1: the biggest capital expenditure is that their guidance for the

1247
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 1: year to between one hundred and thirty one hundred and

1248
01:04:19,200 --> 01:04:21,560
Speaker 1: one hundred and forty five billion from a prior range

1249
01:04:21,560 --> 01:04:23,320
Speaker 1: of one hundred and twenty five to one hundred and

1250
01:04:23,320 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 1: forty five billion. Basically, what they're saying is that they

1251
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:30,040
Speaker 1: are going to spend billions more dollars on capital expenditure

1252
01:04:30,240 --> 01:04:33,160
Speaker 1: than they previously had admitted, and that their free cash

1253
01:04:33,160 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 1: flow is now down actually this quarter from what they

1254
01:04:36,480 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 1: previously had expected for a lot of these analysts, aka

1255
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:45,280
Speaker 1: CHIP or data center construction and AI investment is going

1256
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:47,400
Speaker 1: up and up and up, and we don't see that

1257
01:04:47,440 --> 01:04:50,240
Speaker 1: reflected in the revenue. They have a long term bet,

1258
01:04:50,240 --> 01:04:52,040
Speaker 1: which we're going to talk in a little bit, that

1259
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:54,400
Speaker 1: you know, the open models, et cetera, and all that

1260
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 1: will come, but we're still talking about hundreds of billions

1261
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:01,080
Speaker 1: a year, trillions, you know, totally if you look at

1262
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:04,160
Speaker 1: all of it, and if it doesn't work out, all

1263
01:05:04,200 --> 01:05:06,440
Speaker 1: of it goes bust completely.

1264
01:05:06,280 --> 01:05:09,600
Speaker 2: And not just if it doesn't work out, because sometimes

1265
01:05:10,320 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 2: two things are conflated. Will the technology be transformational, that's

1266
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:17,120
Speaker 2: one question. A totally separate question is what happens with

1267
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 2: the revenue and the economics and whether the stock market

1268
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:23,440
Speaker 2: crashes those two things. That you could have a scenario

1269
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:26,520
Speaker 2: where you know, the models work out, it's transformational and

1270
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:28,760
Speaker 2: the stock market does really well and all these companies

1271
01:05:28,840 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 2: you know, become larger than anything that's ever existed on

1272
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:34,320
Speaker 2: the planet. You could have where you know, it kind

1273
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 2: of sucks, but they continue to pub the stock market.

1274
01:05:36,360 --> 01:05:38,000
Speaker 2: You could have where both things fail, and you could

1275
01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 2: have a situation where it's transformational but they bet on

1276
01:05:41,320 --> 01:05:44,240
Speaker 2: the wrong model. And that's the thing that increasingly looks

1277
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,800
Speaker 2: likely to me, as you know, someone who's looking at

1278
01:05:46,800 --> 01:05:48,480
Speaker 2: this from the outside, trying to read and understand as

1279
01:05:48,520 --> 01:05:51,680
Speaker 2: much as I can, that our companies bet on this

1280
01:05:51,800 --> 01:05:55,040
Speaker 2: model of We're just going to churn and burn, hyper scale,

1281
01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:57,440
Speaker 2: build down all of these data centers, throw as much

1282
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:00,360
Speaker 2: compute as possible, bring in, suck in all of this

1283
01:06:00,400 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 2: investor cash endlessly, and hope that the productivity gains translation

1284
01:06:05,440 --> 01:06:07,760
Speaker 2: replacing of human beings at their work, that that is

1285
01:06:07,840 --> 01:06:11,600
Speaker 2: valuable enough, that is all ends up being justified. But

1286
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:16,440
Speaker 2: when China comes in with cheaper, more efficient models and

1287
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 2: open source, meaning that a company can just you know,

1288
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 2: download that and run it themselves. They don't have to

1289
01:06:22,160 --> 01:06:23,479
Speaker 2: give their data to anyone else.

1290
01:06:23,600 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 3: It's cheaper.

1291
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:29,040
Speaker 2: Why wouldn't you do that? That undercuts their entire business model. So,

1292
01:06:29,200 --> 01:06:32,600
Speaker 2: even if the tech ends up being transformational, does it

1293
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:36,160
Speaker 2: work out from their business model perspective? And that is

1294
01:06:36,240 --> 01:06:38,880
Speaker 2: what I mean. You look at the data center construction

1295
01:06:38,920 --> 01:06:41,600
Speaker 2: across the country. So many of the jobs that are

1296
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:44,360
Speaker 2: that are being created right now or like electricians and

1297
01:06:44,760 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 2: in construction for specifically these data centers. If that goes

1298
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 2: down it's I mean, it is really dire. We actually

1299
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 2: just had a GDP cut number come in that was

1300
01:06:53,640 --> 01:06:56,720
Speaker 2: weaker than expected. It was like one percent growth, you know,

1301
01:06:56,760 --> 01:07:00,320
Speaker 2: and some of that is because of government spending going

1302
01:07:00,360 --> 01:07:02,680
Speaker 2: down due to a variety of reasons, et cetera. But

1303
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 2: a lot of the economy is built on this AI buildout.

1304
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:09,520
Speaker 2: That's where all of the money is going. And so

1305
01:07:09,600 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 2: when you see these canaries in the coal mine of

1306
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:14,000
Speaker 2: this guy that bet everything on exactly that direction, on

1307
01:07:14,040 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 2: the South Korean stock market, which is all bet on

1308
01:07:16,320 --> 01:07:19,280
Speaker 2: the chips and the continued to increased demand for chips,

1309
01:07:19,360 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 2: you have to pay attention to that.

1310
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:24,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. So we'll continue to monitor how it's all going.

1311
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:26,280
Speaker 1: But and look, you know, to again be fair, many

1312
01:07:26,280 --> 01:07:28,480
Speaker 1: tech companies their stock is up as well. So it's

1313
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:32,480
Speaker 1: not like this is exactly an entire industry wide phenomenon.

1314
01:07:32,560 --> 01:07:36,200
Speaker 1: But generally, like with South Korea, this is their worst

1315
01:07:36,200 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 1: crash since ninety seven. It's worse than ninety seven, it's

1316
01:07:38,880 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 1: worse than O eight, Like, this is one of the

1317
01:07:40,200 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 1: greatest stock market calamities in their history. I don't think

1318
01:07:43,360 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 1: that we can ignore that, especially on a country who's

1319
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:50,480
Speaker 1: whole at least market was bet on these chip stocks.

1320
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,640
Speaker 1: We are not as exposed, but we are exposed broadly

1321
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 1: to all of the AI sector for all of our growth.

1322
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 1: Oh and not to mention gases four dollars a gallon,

1323
01:07:58,160 --> 01:08:00,920
Speaker 1: So grocery prices are up like fifty two percent. Consumer

1324
01:08:00,960 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 1: spending is very high for the top ten percent, but

1325
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:06,080
Speaker 1: for most people it continues to crunch. So in terms

1326
01:08:06,120 --> 01:08:08,919
Speaker 1: of our real production, it's not looking that great.