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Speaker 1: Hello, everyone, Welcome back to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Pat fitz Morris. That's Bau mcbrear, and we are

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Speaker 1: going to spend the next thirty minutes or so discussing

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Speaker 1: the AT and T Pebble Beach Pro Am from a

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Speaker 1: betting perspective. We'll tell you who we like, who we

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Speaker 1: don't like, who we're betting, and we're also going to

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Speaker 1: give you our one and done picks at the end

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Speaker 1: of the show.

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Speaker 2: Though that's not my.

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Speaker 1: Favorite segment these days, and I'm very excited to discuss

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Speaker 1: the AT and T Pebble Beach Pro Am. Traditionally not

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Speaker 1: one of my favorite events on the PGA Tour calendar,

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Speaker 1: but this year they are making some major changes to

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Speaker 1: the format and personally I love all of these changes.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about the new format and also recap last

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Speaker 1: week's Farmers Insurance Open in just a moment, but first

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Speaker 1: I do want to mention that this show is now

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Speaker 1: sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Many of you are familiar with

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Speaker 1: Underdog's Best Ball contest for fantasy football, but underdog also

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Speaker 1: first deposit matched up to one hundred dollars plus. There

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Speaker 1: is a special pick available for you in the lobby.

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Speaker 1: More on Underdog Golf contest a little later on the show.

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Speaker 1: All right, Bo, Yet another tournament and yet another long

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Speaker 1: shot winner. Last week at Tory Pine's thirty one year

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Speaker 1: old Frenchman I know four in a row, thirty one

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Speaker 1: year old Frenchman Matthew Pavan fended off final round playing

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Speaker 1: partners Nikolai Hogard and Steven Jaeger to win with the

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Speaker 1: score of thirteen under par, one shot better than Hoguard,

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Speaker 1: and Pavan made a harrowing eight foot par putt on

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Speaker 1: the final hole to clinch the win. It was quite

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Speaker 1: a finish boy. He really had to scramble on the

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Speaker 1: par five eighteenth, puts his drive into a bunker, puts

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Speaker 1: the layup into some thick rough. Not exactly a textbook

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Speaker 1: par on.

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Speaker 2: The eighteenth hole.

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Speaker 1: But Pavon who went off and around and twenty five

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Speaker 1: to one, and I believe bo. Only his third PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour event, and get this, he became the first French

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Speaker 1: golfer to win on the PGA Tour since World War Two.

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Speaker 1: How's that for history. So a couple of takeaways for me,

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Speaker 1: Bo Pavon was the main story. But I was so

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Speaker 1: impressed by Nikolai Hogard. I was sure he was gonna

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Speaker 1: win on Sunday, and I suspect he would have won

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Speaker 1: a playoff had Pavan not been able to get that

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Speaker 1: final putt to drop on the seventy second hole. But

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Speaker 1: Hoguard the twenty two year old day and just has

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Speaker 1: so much game it wouldn't surprise me if he wound

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Speaker 1: up having a Victor Hovelin tip of breakout season.

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Speaker 2: I think he's that good.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the reason he was selected for the

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Speaker 1: Ryder Cup team last year. You can just see it

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Speaker 1: with him. I mean, he is seemingly impervious to pressure

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Speaker 1: and uh, just pretty good all around. So the other one,

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Speaker 1: Tony Fenow's ball striking this past week was good enough

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Speaker 1: to win. It was absolutely good enough to win at

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Speaker 1: Torrey Pines. But for his putting, Bo, those Poa greens

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Speaker 1: really vexed poor Feeno and I don't know how many

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Speaker 1: times he hit his approach shot to ten or fifteen

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Speaker 1: feet only to miss the birdie putt, And it seemed

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Speaker 1: like it was happening to him basically every hole on Sunday, So,

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Speaker 1: on the one hand, probably a good sign for final

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Speaker 1: that he's so dialed in with the ball striking. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, that performance does not exactly make me

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Speaker 1: eager to bet him on the POA Greens this week

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Speaker 1: at the AT and T Pebble Beach pro am Bo. Anyway,

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Speaker 1: any takeaways you had from the Farmer's Insurance Open.

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Speaker 3: Hoyard was one of them. He was in one of

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Speaker 3: my in one of my DFS pools that I created

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Speaker 3: just because his upside is extremely high. You said, twenty

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Speaker 3: two year old from Denmark. His brother was in contention

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Speaker 3: on the DP World Tour last week, so Rasmus Hoigard

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Speaker 3: and Nikolai Hoigard both in contention, and it's they're just

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Speaker 3: so talented. I don't know if we're going to see

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Speaker 3: that Hovelin type breakout time this season, maybe next year

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Speaker 3: or the year after that. He's still very young, unpolished.

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Speaker 3: We saw how Hayes struggled to kind of close the

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Speaker 3: deal on Sunday because nobody was really going after that win.

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Speaker 3: I was hoping Xander Schoffley, who was my one and

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Speaker 3: dun pick last week was going to make a charge

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Speaker 3: on Sunday and he shot two hunder par for he

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Speaker 3: pretty much shot even par for that final round and

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Speaker 3: for after the first three holes, and that was it.

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Speaker 3: So nobody really went and got that tournament. Pavon made

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Speaker 3: that amazing shot from the rough on eighteen to seal

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Speaker 3: the victory and that was it. But I mean, that's

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Speaker 3: all These guys are so talented. I was making the

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Speaker 3: joke that with the way the fifty four hole leaderboard looked,

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Speaker 3: that the US team is not going to win the

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Speaker 3: Ryder Cup anytime soon, because this was like your alternates

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Speaker 3: for the euro team, not even guys that were Ryder

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Speaker 3: Cup eligibly yet the Ryder Cup alternate euro team was

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Speaker 3: the entire top ten of Tory Pines last week through

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Speaker 3: fifty four holes, and you end up getting first and

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Speaker 3: second being Hoyguard who is going to be a Ryder

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Speaker 3: Cup mainstay. Pavon. We'll see, We'll see. He's a really

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Speaker 3: nice winner there. I hate to say it, but I

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Speaker 3: hate this week. We might get a fifth in a row.

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Speaker 3: Even in an elevated.

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Speaker 1: Event, we could bo But the thing is, there are

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Speaker 1: not many guys with triple digit odds in this field

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Speaker 1: just because it's only an eighty man field and it's

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Speaker 1: actually here, really good field. I mean, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: find any guys who don't have any sort of chance

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Speaker 1: to win this tournament. Like I mean, I think you

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Speaker 1: could see, I don't know, there's sixty sixty five guys in

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Speaker 1: this field who could win this week, I think. So

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Speaker 1: it's going to be a really interesting event.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So now we're traveling up the northern or traveling north

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Speaker 1: up the California coast to the Monterey Peninsula. That's right

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Speaker 1: for the AT and T Pebble Beach pro Am, and

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Speaker 1: so let's get to those format changes I teased earlier. Now,

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Speaker 1: in the past, the first three rounds were split between

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Speaker 1: three courses, Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and the Monterey Peninsula

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Speaker 1: Country Club. Now Monterey Peninsula CC is out, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not really going to miss it. It's one round at

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Speaker 1: Pebble on the first two days of the tournament for

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Speaker 1: all these guys, one round at Spyglass Hill, and then

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Speaker 1: the entire weekend will be contested at Pebble Beach, as

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Speaker 1: it should be. Also, now we had that pro am

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Speaker 1: event in past years still going to be pro am,

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Speaker 1: but the amateurs are only playing the first two rounds

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Speaker 1: with the pros. No more will we tune in to

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Speaker 1: watch the PGA professionals play Pebble Beach on Saturday only

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Speaker 1: to have to watch George Lopez and Huey Lewis hitting

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Speaker 1: bunker shots.

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Speaker 3: Or just the CEO of Oracle.

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Speaker 2: It's just yeah, exactly, Larry Larry.

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Speaker 3: He's not necessarily the local billionaires that just want to

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Speaker 3: go and have a.

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Speaker 2: Round, or Larry the Cable Guy for that matter.

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Speaker 1: Bo I do not need to see Larry the Cable

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Speaker 1: Guy hit iron shots. So weekend coverage is going to

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Speaker 1: give us some of the best players in the world

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Speaker 1: playing one of the most iconic courses in the world,

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Speaker 1: Pebble Beach. And finally, the tour has designated this as

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Speaker 1: a signature event, so the eighty man field is a

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Speaker 1: pretty star studded one. In past years, a lot of

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Speaker 1: players top players skip this event because well, who wants

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Speaker 1: to be stuck dragging around amateur playing partners for six

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Speaker 1: hour rounds.

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Speaker 2: But no more loaded field.

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Speaker 1: Oh and one other thing, this is also no cut event,

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Speaker 1: so all eighty players are going to play all four

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Speaker 1: rounds and yeah, Spyglass Hill par seventy two seven forty

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Speaker 1: one yards not a long course, but smallish POA greens.

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Speaker 2: And then we have difficults, yes, yes, sir.

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Speaker 1: And then we have Pebble Beach par seventy two, almost

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Speaker 1: dainty by tour standards at six nine and seventy two yards,

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Speaker 1: but these are the smallest greens on tour. And as

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Speaker 1: with Spyglass Hill, the greens are POA. So you talked

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Speaker 1: about it last week, Bo, POA greens are tricky. We're

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Speaker 1: going to see the pros miss more short in medium

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Speaker 1: range pots than usual. I think I saw something like

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Speaker 1: fifteen foot pots at Pebble Beach are about a twenty

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Speaker 1: five percent proposition even for the tour pros.

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Speaker 2: It is wild.

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Speaker 1: Driving distance not a big factor at Pebble because it's

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Speaker 1: a shorter course and there's some holes where you simply

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Speaker 1: run out of fairway zero. So and Bo, we often

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Speaker 1: get rainy weather at this event, and this year will

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Speaker 1: seemingly be no exception. The forecast is calling for rainy

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Speaker 1: conditions much of the tournament. I believe the only day

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Speaker 1: where they're not forecasting rain is Saturday, and we should

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Speaker 1: probably acknowledge the possibility that this event could be shortened

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Speaker 1: fifty four holes because of the weather. We've seen that

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Speaker 1: happen in years past.

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Speaker 2: Maybe not.

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Speaker 1: Let's be optimist, and we're going to see a little

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Speaker 1: breeze throughout the tournament and maybe a lot of breeze

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Speaker 1: on Sunday when they're saying fifteen to twenty five mile

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Speaker 1: an hour winds, temperatures in the mid fifties, Paul, what's

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Speaker 1: going on in California not exactly balmy conditions now.

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Speaker 3: This is par for the course, no pun intended for

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Speaker 3: the northern coast of California in February, and so yeah,

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Speaker 3: to be expected. The rain, it's not going to be

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Speaker 3: heavy enough to call anything off. There's no thunderstorms, there's

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Speaker 3: no torrential downpour. We're talking about sporadic rain showers throughout

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Speaker 3: the weekend. Thursday Friday going to be chilly and wet.

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Speaker 3: That's pretty much Monterey half of the year. That's what

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Speaker 3: you get. Even in July's chilly, rainy, windy, overcast, foggy,

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Speaker 3: you're gonna get all that. And Pebble Beach is gorgeous. Regardless,

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Speaker 3: it's going to be a challenge, especially if that wind

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Speaker 3: picks up. Spyglass Hill is going to eat some of

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Speaker 3: these guys alive if it's windy with that one round

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Speaker 3: on Thursday or Friday. So I can't wait because I

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Speaker 3: love carnage. I love watching the best golfers in the

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Speaker 3: world go around a little seven thousand yard course and

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Speaker 3: struggle like it's going to be struggle us for everybody

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Speaker 3: this week, and I do think that we might see

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Speaker 3: a winning score somewhere around ten under par, a lot

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Speaker 3: toer than a year's past, because signature event means two things.

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Speaker 3: It means that you get the better golfers, and it

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Speaker 3: also means that they're not going to mow that rough

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Speaker 3: like they have in years past.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, defending champions. I believe Justin Rose, and he

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Speaker 1: is in the field this week, although at longer odds.

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Speaker 1: Anything else that jumps out to you about this event

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Speaker 1: bo anything about the course, the format.

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Speaker 3: I love the dropping of Monterey Peninsula. Back when I

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Speaker 3: was a kid, my dad took me to this tournament

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Speaker 3: and I got to see Vja Saying and Phil Nicholson

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Speaker 3: and all those guys shrudgs around Spyglass and struggle mightily.

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Speaker 3: Pebble Beach struggle mightily, and back in those days, Poppy

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Speaker 3: Hills was the third course. And then they switched to

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Speaker 3: Monterrey Peninsula Country Club, which I think is just a

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Speaker 3: trash course. It's not even worthy of a Mini Tour event, honestly,

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Speaker 3: compared to all the other courses in that region. They

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Speaker 3: could play Bannett Black Course, they can play all these

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Speaker 3: other amazing courses within twenty minute drive, all of Pebble Beach,

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Speaker 3: and they chose Monterrey Peninsula Country Club for no reason.

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Speaker 3: I don't understand it. So I'm happy they dropped that.

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Speaker 3: It's just Spyglass and Pebble Beech, which are right next

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Speaker 3: to each other. They're on the same road, and they

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Speaker 3: are both brutally difficult in when the conditions get a

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Speaker 3: little moist, which is going to be the case this week.

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Speaker 3: I love it. I'm excited to see another long shot winner.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to be throwing some dark ones up this week.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, we will get to the odds in

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Speaker 1: just a moment, But first go sign yourself up with

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Speaker 1: our friends at Underdog, where you can make picks on

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00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:26,160
Speaker 1: your favorite golfers all season long. Just pick higher or

225
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,560
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Speaker 1: example selecting which of two golfers will shoot a better

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00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:41,720
Speaker 1: score in a round, and golf picks can be combined

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00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 1: with players' stats from other sports as well, making things

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Speaker 1: pretty interesting. So sign up for Underdog if you have

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Speaker 1: in the lobby. And next week they are rolling out

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Speaker 1: two big contests for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, so

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Speaker 1: be on the lookout for those, all right, bo Let's

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Speaker 1: check out the favorites here. As of Monday afternoon, Rory McElroy,

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Speaker 1: playing in his first PGA Tour event of twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: was the favorite at plus seven fifty on DraftKings. Then

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Speaker 1: we have Scotti Scheffler at plus eight fifty, Xanderschoffley and

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Speaker 1: Victor Hovland at plus twelve hundred, Patrick Cantley, Maxhoma and

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Speaker 1: Jordan Speith at plus eighteen hundred, Colin Morikawa at plus

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Speaker 1: two thousand, Ludwig Obert and Justin Thomas at plus twenty

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Speaker 1: five hundred and Matthew Fitzpatrick at plus three thousand.

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Speaker 2: Anyone you like from this group bo well.

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Speaker 3: Naturally, if you run any statistical model on a second

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Speaker 3: shot golf course such as Pebble Beach or even Spyglass,

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Speaker 3: they're both pretty similar. Where driving distance matters zero percent.

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Speaker 3: We're looking at guys who can get close on approach

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Speaker 3: from short to mid range approach distances, and you're aiming

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Speaker 3: for postage stamps, so another correlation to around the green game.

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Speaker 3: So naturally you're going to find that Rory, Scotty and

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Speaker 3: Xander pop up at the very top, along with Victor Hovland.

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Speaker 3: That's no surprise there as far as what I like

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Speaker 3: to see is success on polled greens, which goes beyond

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Speaker 3: just putting. It's putting, it's chipping. If all the things

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Speaker 3: put together, strokes gained from tea to green. Xanderschoffley is

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Speaker 3: the one I like the most, and I like that

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Speaker 3: his odds are better than ten to one instead of

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Speaker 3: Rory and Scotty, who honestly are just too short. I'm

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Speaker 3: the kind of golf better where if I'm getting less

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Speaker 3: than ten to one payout for an outright winner. I

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Speaker 3: want a guy who actually does well on these types

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Speaker 3: of courses. Rory with these short approach distances shaky at

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Speaker 3: best throughout the last couple of years. Scotty Scheffler. Of course,

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Speaker 3: it models out amazing here because he's the best approach

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Speaker 3: player in the world. He's a great off the tee

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Speaker 3: player is around the green game is really good too. However,

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Speaker 3: last time we saw him at Pebble Beach he missed

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Speaker 3: the cut, so that doesn't tell me that he's going

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Speaker 3: to be overly confident in his chances to win this week.

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Speaker 3: He very well could. He's the best golfer in the

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Speaker 3: world overall. But I'm going to start with Xander Schoffley

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Speaker 3: at twelve to one because he fits the course the best.

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Speaker 3: His approach game, short distances is around, the green game

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Speaker 3: is impeccable, and of course he's one of the best

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Speaker 3: putters on POA in the world.

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Speaker 2: I'm with you, Baul.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to bet anyone shorter than ten to

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Speaker 1: one in a feel this good. It's just the price

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Speaker 1: is not right, and I think Xander Schoffley is probably

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Speaker 1: a good place to start. Looking at top players. Jordan

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Speaker 1: Spiefbow really good at track record here. He has finished

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Speaker 1: top ten in this event in six of the last

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Speaker 1: ten years, including a win in twenty seventeen and a

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Speaker 1: second in twenty twenty two. In his only other PGA

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Speaker 1: Tour start this year, he finished third at the Century

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Speaker 1: in Hawaii. Was in good form there and bo on

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Speaker 1: this course on Pebble Beach, he can put away that

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Speaker 1: balky driver And I really, I mean that definitely interests

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Speaker 1: me in Jordan Speith, Yeah, I.

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Speaker 3: Can't agree more. This is Jordan Speed's golf course. If

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Speaker 3: he can survive his eighteen holes at Spyglass, which are

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Speaker 3: tree lined, and even if you're taking a long iron

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Speaker 3: off the tea to find the fair way, you can

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Speaker 3: find some trouble there. But if he can survive Spyglass

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Speaker 3: on that first or one or two rounds there, then

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Speaker 3: the Pebble Beach thing, he just loves it there. He's

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Speaker 3: a perfect fit. His short game is so good that

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Speaker 3: even if he does get a little erratic on approach,

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Speaker 3: this guy can ship in from anywhere. As far as

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Speaker 3: putting goes. He knows Poe greens very well. He's always

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Speaker 3: done well in California despite being a Texas native. This

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Speaker 3: might be the one place where I would say Jordan

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Speaker 3: Speed is a lock to be top ten and have

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Speaker 3: a very good run at winning out right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and you mentioned there there are a few Parkland

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Speaker 1: style holes on Spyglass, and if he can stay out

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Speaker 1: of trouble there, he should be in pretty good shape.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Cantley his last three appearances here eleventh, third, and fourth.

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Speaker 1: Although Cantlay has not been in good form the last

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Speaker 1: couple of weeks, he played the last two events and

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Speaker 1: did not crack the top fifty in either. So no

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Speaker 1: interest in a guy who's coming in with no steam

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Speaker 1: at albow.

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Speaker 3: There's still some interest because he again has a great

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Speaker 3: track record here short game putting. This guy's just so

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Speaker 3: good around the greens that you can't really count him out.

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Speaker 3: I just don't know that he's going to be able

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Speaker 3: to survive among all these other top rate golfers When

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Speaker 3: we see cantly, when it's kind of when he's the

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Speaker 3: top dog and everybody kind of expects him to be there,

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Speaker 3: I don't think very many people expect him to hang

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Speaker 3: with all these other top golfers in this field, and

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Speaker 3: he kind of shrinks under pressure. I think the top

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Speaker 3: fifty thing the last couple of weeks is because he

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Speaker 3: might still be playing those rounds. He's one of the

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Speaker 3: slowest paced golfers in the world, and it seems to

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Speaker 3: get into his head even more when it comes down

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Speaker 3: to Saturday, Sunday, Moving Day Sunday. If he's not if

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Speaker 3: he's under pressure, then I know he's not going to

333
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 3: win because he takes even more time and he psychs

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Speaker 3: himself out. So yeah, you can bet him top ten,

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Speaker 3: but I'm not going to bet him out right at all.

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Speaker 1: On the bright side, the slower pace of play with

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00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 1: the amateurs on Thursday and Friday probably won't bother can't

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00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:46,879
Speaker 1: lay at all considering come on, you know, when the

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00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:50,920
Speaker 1: amateurs are asking can't lay to play faster, it's tough.

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Speaker 1: And then there's Max Homa, another Native Californian. Hasn't played

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Speaker 1: here since twenty twenty one, but in his last three

342
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Speaker 1: appearances at the eighteen Pebble Beach Pro Am, he's finished tenth, fourteenth,

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Speaker 1: and seventh.

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Speaker 2: Any interest in Homer, Yes.

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Speaker 3: He's another guy that is good, but not He's not

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Speaker 3: a top tier golfer for me. He's like the next

347
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,800
Speaker 3: tier down. I'd put him kind of behind the Colin

348
00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 3: Morrikawa's of the world, even even Justin Thomas, who's getting

349
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 3: shorter odds than I expected. I would favor in a

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Speaker 3: place like this over Max Oma. He's a fine player,

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Speaker 3: I just don't know that he has that elite upside

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Speaker 3: that I'm looking for to place a bed in that range.

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Speaker 3: If he was closer to thirty five or forty with

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Speaker 3: v Now and Fleetwood and Sung Jay, then yeah, sure,

355
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Speaker 3: that's that's fine because Home is a good, really good golfer.

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Speaker 3: But I just don't know that piece that if he

357
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 3: earned his eighteen to one once this week.

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Speaker 1: Now, if you want a chance to win a free

359
00:19:50,720 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 1: one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to subscribe

360
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:57,240
Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now. Comment below

361
00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 1: on this video and that's it. We will be announcing

362
00:19:59,760 --> 00:20:01,440
Speaker 1: a win right here on the channel, so make sure

363
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 1: to turn on those notifications so you can be alerted

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00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 1: when new episodes are up and to claim your prize.

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00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:09,400
Speaker 2: Let's talk about players.

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Speaker 1: We may or may not like in the plus thirty

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Speaker 1: five hundred to plus five thousand range. Bow We've got

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Speaker 1: Tommy Fleetwood, Sung JM. Sam Burns, Ben On and Cameron

369
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Speaker 1: Young at plus thirty five hundred. At plus four thousand,

370
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Speaker 1: we have JT. Postin and my guy, Nikolai Hogard, and

371
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Speaker 1: then we've got Tom Kim and Jason Day at plus

372
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Speaker 1: forty five hundred, and at plus five thousand we have

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Speaker 1: Russell Henley and Eric Cole, who jumps out to you

374
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Speaker 1: from this group.

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Speaker 3: Bo Surprisingly, JT Postin is the one that screens off

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Speaker 3: the top of the page. Like as soon as I

377
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 3: ran my first couple models, JT Postin was up near

378
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 3: the top, and as I kept running it, he kept

379
00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,280
Speaker 3: popping up. And so everybody else in this range is

380
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 3: really good. I don't know if this kind of type

381
00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 3: of setup is going to suit Hoguard scheme. I really

382
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 3: have doubts about that, But as far as a course

383
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 3: fit and everything that we're looking for, JT post In

384
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: with a little bit of Tom Kim sprinkled in. Surprisingly,

385
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,160
Speaker 3: I was surprised to see him pop up in my modeling,

386
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: but not too high. But JT. Postin is the one

387
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 3: that really stood out to me, and he's going to

388
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 3: be the one that I ride at forty to one.

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Speaker 1: Tom Kim debuting here I believe unless I'm mistaken.

390
00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, so.

391
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Speaker 1: Posting like we're doue with him, Paul, I mean, we've

392
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: been liking him for a while now, and like you're,

393
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Speaker 1: are you confident that his skill at putting is not

394
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,640
Speaker 1: going to be in any way negated by the POA greens,

395
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Speaker 1: which can be so I don't know, bumpy and random

396
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 1: on some of the shorter pots, No, I really don't.

397
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Speaker 3: I don't think that's gonna be a factor for him

398
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 3: because a lot of those putts are shorter, Like you

399
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: mentioned twenty five percent on a fifteen foot putt. I

400
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 3: mean that's just because Pebble Beach is difficult. Everything slopes

401
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 3: towards the ocean, even if it looks like it's sloping

402
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,280
Speaker 3: the opposite way towards the inland side. Then it goes

403
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 3: towards the ocean. As long as you can read where

404
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:19,679
Speaker 3: the putts are breaking. The bumpiness doesn't really take you

405
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:22,439
Speaker 3: off of your line. It just says, hey, I'm going

406
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:26,199
Speaker 3: to play some mind games on you. Because it's along

407
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 3: the whole line, you're going to see the ball oscillate

408
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 3: on its way to the whole I don't think that

409
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: it really affects anybody that much. Other than just the

410
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 3: mental aspect of trusting your line when you when you're

411
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 3: when you're setting up your putt, this guy can put

412
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 3: his brains off. The JT post in his approach game

413
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 3: is around the green game, his his putting overall, and

414
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 3: just like you said to Speed is just take that

415
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 3: driver out of the bag. You have a bunch of

416
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: forced layoffs layups on these two courses. Just hit the

417
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: ball in the fairway, make a solid approach shot, and

418
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 3: start making some pots. And as far as everything that

419
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Speaker 3: I'm considering this week, JT Poston is in the top

420
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Speaker 3: five of all of that in this entire field.

421
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 2: Now here's any interesting case. Jason Day.

422
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: In his last eight trips here, dating back to twenty

423
00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: fifteen ball, he's finished in the top eleven seven times,

424
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Speaker 1: seven of eight top eleven finishes. But last week at

425
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Speaker 1: Torrey Pines, a place where he's had a pretty good

426
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 1: track record, he missed the freaking cut. What do we

427
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: make of him this week at Yeah, like reasonable odds

428
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 1: plus forty five hundred.

429
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Speaker 3: Yeah. Unfortunately, his approach game has been miserable in the

430
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 3: last four months, and so I'm off of him completely

431
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 3: because stroke skiined on approach, especially in the distances where

432
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: we really count it here between one hundred and twenty

433
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,199
Speaker 3: five one hundred and fifty yards, Jason Day is outside

434
00:23:56,240 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: the top fifty in this field, and that's not good enough.

435
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 3: And the way, the way he's playing now is his

436
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 3: strengths are not going to be amplified on this course,

437
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,919
Speaker 3: and his weaknesses certainly will be so as well. As well.

438
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 3: As Jason Day has played here in the past, his

439
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: recent form gives me a lot of concern, especially in

440
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 3: the field of this caliber. And I'm happy to say

441
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 3: that there is good news is you don't have to

442
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 3: play him in the one and done anymore. He used

443
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 3: him already. He missed the cut when you counted on

444
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 3: him the most.

445
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:28,960
Speaker 2: Brutal, just brutal.

446
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: Thanks for the salt and the wound there, Bo, appreciate it.

447
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 1: A nice shaker full of Morton right in there. A

448
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 1: longer shot and long shots at the at and t

449
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 1: Pebably each pro am tell me about the guys who

450
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 1: interest you at plus fifty five hundred or longer odds.

451
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: And Deki Matsuyama here sixty to one odds is an insult.

452
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: It's an absolute insult. This guy plays well here all

453
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: the time. He's playing out of his mind hot it

454
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 3: was awesome last week. Just didn't have a enough to win.

455
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 3: This guy just with an iron in his hand. An

456
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 3: iron player is so pure, His around the green game

457
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,200
Speaker 3: is so pure. If he can find a putting stroke

458
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 3: that works for him on this course, we could see

459
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:16,000
Speaker 3: a very very quick ascent to the top of the

460
00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: leaderboard for Hideki Matsiama sixty to one. For the way

461
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 3: he's playing, it doesn't make any sense at all.

462
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: What about Bo Hostler at fifty five to one. He'd

463
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: a good week at Torry Pines last week, finishing in

464
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 1: a tie for sixth, and in his last two trips

465
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: to Pebble Beach third and eleventh.

466
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:37,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's He's definitely on my mind here. I don't

467
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,719
Speaker 3: mind betting in top ten at five to one, but

468
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:42,480
Speaker 3: I don't think he has the choice to make a

469
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 3: makeup outright run here.

470
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 1: What about what about Kevin yu so the he's plus

471
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 1: eight thousand, eighty to one. He's on a heater top

472
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: six finishes in each of the last two weeks, and

473
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: he finished seven at Pebble Beach last year.

474
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this guy's an absolute stripe show out

475
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: there from tee to green, and he's really fun to watch.

476
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 3: He's also an extremely bad putter, and where he was

477
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 3: so close to the hole last week at Torrey Pines,

478
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 3: we didn't really care that he was missing a lot

479
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 3: of birdie putts, and that's what killed him at the

480
00:26:22,520 --> 00:26:24,679
Speaker 3: end of the at the end of the tournament was

481
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: the fact that he couldn't make enough birdies to justify

482
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: those great approach shots and incredible drives. This is he's

483
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 3: Tony fenow Light. Basically, he's going to make a lot

484
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: of birdies. He's also going to shoot himself on the

485
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 3: foot many times, especially when this tournament's going to be

486
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 3: set up quite a bit different than it has in

487
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 3: years past. Just layout wise, Pebble Beach has got a

488
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 3: lot of teeth. Sagra Spyglass has even more teeth. I

489
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 3: don't know that he's in that quite there where eighty

490
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 3: to one makes sense for me. I have a guy

491
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 3: Chris Kirk right there at the same number that I'd

492
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 3: much rather play.

493
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:04,639
Speaker 1: What if I told you, Bo you could get the

494
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 1: defending champion at ninety to one, and he is a

495
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 1: longtime international star. Justin Rose does that interest you at all, not.

496
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 3: On the betting ticket. I think it's such a different

497
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 3: tournament than it was last year that honestly, he was

498
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 3: almost the class of that tournament last year. I think

499
00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 3: he was thirty to one odds going out last year

500
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 3: when he won. So this is a whole different animal.

501
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 3: Rose kind of he kind of hung around at Torrey

502
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: Pines for me and my DFS lineups that I had

503
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: with him in there. The dude is just he's solid.

504
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 3: But again, this whole odds making thing is if I'm

505
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: taking a shot on a guy, I want him to

506
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 3: make some noise. I just don't see it. I just

507
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 3: don't see the upside with Justin Rose in a field

508
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 3: this strong.

509
00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, recent form has not been good. He has not

510
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: been sniffing the leaderboard in his first few events of

511
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, so I can totally understand that. All right,

512
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 1: we will get to our betting cards in just a moment.

513
00:28:09,200 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: Download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android

514
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: sink your sports books in less than a minute to

515
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 1: automatically track your bets across all sports books in one spot.

516
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:22,240
Speaker 1: After sinking, you will enjoy access to detailed bet analytics

517
00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:26,399
Speaker 1: by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, and parlays.

518
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: You'll also get insights and personalized recommendations for props, game picks,

519
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:34,400
Speaker 1: and more tailor to your interests. To enjoy the benefits

520
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: of Sportsbooks Sinc. Download the Betting Pros app by visiting

521
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,880
Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com, slash apps or search Betting Pros in

522
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 1: the app. Star All right, bo as of now, what

523
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: does your betting card look like?

524
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 3: So? I did start with Xander and then I go

525
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 3: a little Jordan speF Jordan Speed, I'm gonna bet a

526
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 3: trifecta on outright top five and top ten because I

527
00:28:56,040 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 3: have a feeling he's gonna he's just gonna dominate here

528
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 3: the way he has in years past. I'm going JT

529
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: postin Chris Kirk and I have two long shots. Lucas

530
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 3: Glover at one hundred and fifty to one popped up

531
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 3: number two in my model. Overall, this dude is nails

532
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 3: in all the right places for this type of golf course.

533
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 3: And as long as he can make any putts at all,

534
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 3: this guy's going to be dialed in on approach. He's

535
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 3: really accurate off the tee. It's just everything I'm looking

536
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: for he hits all the boxes there, and then Sam

537
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 3: Ryder at three hundred to one. I'm going to take

538
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: a few shots.

539
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: At Yeah, long odds on a pretty good player. So

540
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 1: I like Spieth outright at plus eighteen hundred. You might

541
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 1: be able to talk me into the win place and

542
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: show their bet their bow. I am going to take

543
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: hoguard and ride the wave here at plus four thousand.

544
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: I'm also going to take him to finish top five

545
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 1: at plus nine hundred. We'll see a pebble.

546
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 3: Fits, but that'll be a nice data.

547
00:29:58,280 --> 00:29:58,840
Speaker 2: That would be.

548
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: And then I'm going to put down smallish outrights on

549
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,840
Speaker 1: Bo Hostler at fifty five to one, Kevin You at

550
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: eighty to one, and you know what both Justin Rose

551
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: at ninety to one. I'm interested in those odds for

552
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: the defending champion and just for you bowl. I think

553
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 1: I might bet Kurt Kitty Yama to finish top five

554
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: at plus eighteen hundred. Yeah, just pretty good odds for

555
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: a top five finish, a photo finish for a guy

556
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 1: who's a good player playing close to the home.

557
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 3: Mentioned somebody from NorCal in this whole thing, because that's right.

558
00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: I will try to let me. Obviously, Chico and Monterey

559
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 3: are what three and a half hours away, it's a

560
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 3: pretty big state. But one thing about Kittyama that turned

561
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,959
Speaker 3: me off of him was that his form at Sawgrass

562
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 3: and Pillow Beats were a lot worse than his form

563
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: at Monterey Peninsula. He was being killed Monterey Peninsula. And

564
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 3: of course that course is no longer in this event,

565
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 3: so we'll see. But I mean I'll root for him.

566
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:02,600
Speaker 3: I reform every time he's in the field.

567
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: Now let's get to our one and done picks bow.

568
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: Any momentum I might have had with Adam hadwin six

569
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: plays finished two weeks ago, snuffed out by Jason Day, who,

570
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:13,640
Speaker 1: as we mentioned before, missed the cut. Gave me a

571
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: big fat zero. You went big with Xander Schoffley. He

572
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: paid off solidly with a tie for ninth good for

573
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:24,640
Speaker 1: two one hundred and thirty six thousand dollars two thirty

574
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: six and two fifty. So that pushes you well over

575
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: the million dollar mark for the season. I think you're

576
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 1: at about one point one million. I'm at about three

577
00:31:33,280 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty thousand, so yeah, I've got some ground

578
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: to make up. I pick first. I am gonna go

579
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,719
Speaker 1: with Max Homa. Bo, I want to get him in California.

580
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: We're running out of chances. It's either here or at

581
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: the Genesis in a couple of weeks, and I've got

582
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 1: some other Genesis specialists I've got my eye on for

583
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: that one. So yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna take the

584
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 1: California boy, Max Oma.

585
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: How about you, Bo, I'm surprised that you're not saving

586
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,040
Speaker 3: him for Riviera because that's a lot better fit for

587
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 3: him in my opinion. I'm going to go with Jordan

588
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 3: Speed because he owns Doubble Beach and I really don't

589
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:09,120
Speaker 3: trust him as far as I could throw him on

590
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:13,240
Speaker 3: any other golf course, maybe except for the window, but

591
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 3: it's similar course structure. The short courses. They demand good

592
00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 3: approach game and an amazing short game. Let me go

593
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 3: Jordan Speed because I have a feeling I don't want

594
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 3: to use him the rest of the year anyway.

595
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 1: There are a couple of places where I trust Jordan Speith.

596
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: I've thought about this and you know it is, but

597
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: I can't argue with him, and I want and done

598
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: here like this is a good spot too.

599
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 3: So it's appeeling for me because it's a win win.

600
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 3: I think he's going to be fine overall, no chance

601
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: of missing the cut, and I I have a hard

602
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 3: time believing that he's going to be out of contention.

603
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 1: All right, So Max Olma for me, Jordan Speed for Bo,

604
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 1: and that's going to do it for us this week.

605
00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 1: I want to thank once again our sponsor, Underdog. Sign

606
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 1: up for Underdog if you haven't already with the promo

607
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: code BP Golf to get your first deposit matched up

608
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 1: to one hundred dollars plus a special pick available for

609
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 1: you in the lobby, and come join Bo and I

610
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: again next week when we will be previewing the Always Sonny,

611
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 1: Always Rowdy Waste Management Phoenix Open until then, so long everyone.

612
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

613
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

614
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

615
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,680
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616
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL.

617
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 3: Also subscribe to our

618
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:45,360
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