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Speaker 1: This is Wins and Losses with Clay Trevis. Play talks

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Speaker 1: with the most entertaining people in sports, entertainment and business.

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Speaker 1: Now here's Clay Trevis. Welcome in Wins of Losses podcast.

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Speaker 1: I am Clay Travis. Goal here is to have as

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Speaker 1: many different, interesting, intelligent conversations from a wide variety of sports, media, politics,

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Speaker 1: business and this guy certainly touches on the world of sports,

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Speaker 1: media and business. Love having him on the radio show.

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Speaker 1: He's been on a few times. You guys might know him.

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Speaker 1: He's Rich Greenfield. He's just started a brand new venture.

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Speaker 1: He's a partner at Lightshed. Calls himself and this is

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Speaker 1: an interesting phrase, a media futurist. Um formerly b T

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Speaker 1: I G. Goldman Sachs h he is at Rich Lightshed.

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Speaker 1: I'll tweet it out. Obviously you should go follow him.

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Speaker 1: He's got all sorts of interesting things for you to

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Speaker 1: read out there. First of all, Rich, thanks for coming on,

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Speaker 1: and sort of as a broad question to start here,

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Speaker 1: how in the world did you end up doing what

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Speaker 1: you do? You know, I came out of college, I

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Speaker 1: guess twenty three years ago. I feel old, but um,

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Speaker 1: I was fascinated by media. I actually ran a college

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Speaker 1: radio station, was fascinated by the business of media, and

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Speaker 1: ended up in media at Goldman Sachs and just never

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Speaker 1: left the sector of covering media companies. You know, So

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Speaker 1: I started at that point. I think that was the

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Speaker 1: year that literally, I think six weeks into my job,

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Speaker 1: Disney bought ABC. Later that year, Time Warner bought Turner.

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Speaker 1: And obviously the world has changed a lot since then.

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Speaker 1: But but it's fascinating to look at how much how

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Speaker 1: the industry has evolved. And I think I've just I've

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Speaker 1: always had a fascination in how business has changed. And

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Speaker 1: I think there's no business going through more change right

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Speaker 1: now than the world of media that that you and

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Speaker 1: many of your peers live in Clay. Yeah, so I'm

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Speaker 1: fascinated by this, and we're gonna unpack all of that

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Speaker 1: that he just said. I want to go back for

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Speaker 1: a second. You go to college Aware Brandise up in Boston. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So you go to brand Ice here wenty two years old,

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Speaker 1: you go to work at Goldman Sacks. What is your

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Speaker 1: job like when you are twenty two years old going

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Speaker 1: to work at an investment bank? You would arrive at

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Speaker 1: what time you would do what this what's your day

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Speaker 1: to day existence like For those first several years, you know,

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Speaker 1: it was a little bit of everything. You know, in

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Speaker 1: many ways, it was uh, Goldman was pre I p O.

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Speaker 1: They were a much smaller company. Um. I've worked directly

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Speaker 1: for my boss who had been doing it for decades,

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Speaker 1: and it was really being thrown into the fire. The

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Speaker 1: person I replaced literally left two days after I started,

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Speaker 1: and so it was really having your feet to the

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Speaker 1: fire and you basically did everything from I mean, what

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Speaker 1: was funny back then is that when companies reported earnings,

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Speaker 1: it was rushing to the fax machine, um, and rushing

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Speaker 1: to call them to talk to them because there was

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Speaker 1: this was many for a lot of companies. It was

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Speaker 1: preconference calls and things were facts. So business very different

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Speaker 1: than where we are now in the internet. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think the first year I was there, Netscape win

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Speaker 1: Public and so, you know, from a standpoint of researching,

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Speaker 1: researching was very different it is today in terms of

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Speaker 1: how do you get information. We lived in obviously a

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Speaker 1: world of click a button and anything anywhere, but back

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Speaker 1: then it was a very different time and you actually,

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Speaker 1: you know, the the investigative part of it was in

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Speaker 1: many ways even more challenging because there was no easy

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Speaker 1: source of information the way there is today in terms

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Speaker 1: of finding out and you know, there was no Google

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Speaker 1: to go search for a story the way there was

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Speaker 1: the way there is today. How did you come up

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Speaker 1: with the estimates for earnings for companies back then? Is

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Speaker 1: it art? Is it science? And how much of it

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Speaker 1: is art and science? Now when you're trying to forecast

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Speaker 1: these multibillion dollar companies, and let's use Disney for example,

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Speaker 1: You've got all the different media businesses that they're in,

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Speaker 1: You've got theme parks, you've got the now direct to

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Speaker 1: consumer offering Disney Plus, which we're gonna get to. But

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Speaker 1: these are just Goliath la Viathan companies. How in the

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Speaker 1: world do you try to make sense of all the

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Speaker 1: things that are going on? In some ways it it's

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Speaker 1: it's really gotten a lot more challenging because these companies

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Speaker 1: have gotten so much bigger. I mean, when you think

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Speaker 1: about again, Disney, you know, before ABC was primarily a

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Speaker 1: studio and theme park company. You know, they didn't have

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Speaker 1: ABC and ESPN. These were much much smaller companies. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you know, obviously this was Disney pre Pisar, pre Marvel,

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Speaker 1: pre Lucas pre Fox. So the complexity of these companies

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Speaker 1: and you could look at the same thing like a

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Speaker 1: Warner Media, which is now part of a T and T,

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Speaker 1: But you know, it used to be Time Warner. Before

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Speaker 1: it even had Turner, there was no cable networks other

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Speaker 1: than just HBO. Uh. These companies have transformed themselves, and

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Speaker 1: I think in many ways they've had to scale up

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Speaker 1: because of the changing consumer landscape. And you know what,

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Speaker 1: when I first started in the only thing that really

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Speaker 1: unified the media universe is that each of these companies

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Speaker 1: had a studio, and over time, each of these companies

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Speaker 1: had lots of cable networks. But the reality is in

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Speaker 1: today's world, there's a whole new skill set of of

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Speaker 1: expertise needed in terms of data and analytics and understanding

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Speaker 1: who your audience is and being across all platforms. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you were talking on a podcast, I mean talk about

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Speaker 1: one of the fastest growing parts of media that wasn't

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Speaker 1: even something people were talking about five years ago. And

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Speaker 1: so these companies have had to scale up to find

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Speaker 1: new ways to to grow, and they're facing new competitors

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Speaker 1: for a time. You know, there's so many things that

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Speaker 1: consumer can do now versus just turn on the television

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Speaker 1: or go to a movie theater. And so these companies

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Speaker 1: are looking to diversify their businesses and it's making forecasting

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Speaker 1: them far more challenging than it's ever been. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I always been you know, analyzing companies is part art

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Speaker 1: and part science. I don't think you could ever get

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Speaker 1: down to a scientific level because there just isn't the

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Speaker 1: level of detail there used to be when these companies

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Speaker 1: were a fraction of the size. All right, So let's

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Speaker 1: go into something that I've written about, that you've talked

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Speaker 1: about and I think a lot of our audience will

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Speaker 1: be familiar with, and that is the cable bundle and

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Speaker 1: in fact that it's under assault from so called cord cutters,

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Speaker 1: but also streaming and everything else. Now, I wanted for

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Speaker 1: people who may not be familiar, I'll give a prelude.

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Speaker 1: You and I have been on this for a while,

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Speaker 1: been writing and talking about it, that we thought not

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Speaker 1: only was cord cutting a legitimate threat to all of

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Speaker 1: these business and all these media companies that were relying

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Speaker 1: upon it, but also that it was likely to not

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Speaker 1: continue at a slow rate, that once it started, it

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Speaker 1: was going to accelerate, and I think the companies are

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Speaker 1: blown away by how quickly this acceleration has started in

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Speaker 1: terms of the number of people that are leaving. I

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Speaker 1: saw you tweet the other day about direct TV that

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Speaker 1: potentially they were gonna lose like six percent of their business,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of the millions of subscribers that

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Speaker 1: they're now forecasting they will lose. I think they were expecting,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe one or two percent a year, sort

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Speaker 1: of a glad, gradual drip of attrition. And the reality

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Speaker 1: is it's turned into a flood. And so am I

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Speaker 1: correct and characterizing that way in your mind? Is that

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Speaker 1: an accurate assessment? Part one and part And I think

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Speaker 1: this is the biggest part of it. Where is the floor?

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Speaker 1: Like we're losing a lot of millions of people are

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Speaker 1: abandoning the cable satellite bundle right now? What is the

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Speaker 1: floor if you are a major media company right now,

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Speaker 1: where you're looking at and saying, okay, well, we definitely

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Speaker 1: won't go below here, because how do you budget without

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Speaker 1: having a clue where it's going. Let's unpack that. So

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Speaker 1: let's start from the top, so you know, from the

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Speaker 1: standpoint of you know, when you think about the consumer

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Speaker 1: hasn't gotten worse. Absolutely, you know, think about a world.

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Speaker 1: You know, we live in a world where you know,

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Speaker 1: over the last call it thirty years, most consumers in

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Speaker 1: the US had very little choice. If they wanted a

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Speaker 1: package of entertainment programming, they signed up. Whether it was

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Speaker 1: direct TV or back in the daytime wine or cable

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Speaker 1: or Comcast. Everyone, we all signed up for a package

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Speaker 1: that cost us eighty to d a month. We all

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Speaker 1: had the same channels. Yeah, maybe there was slight variations

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Speaker 1: between your package in one city versus another, but but

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Speaker 1: basically everybody he was getting the same channels at the

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Speaker 1: same fact price. And it didn't matter whether you never

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Speaker 1: watched ESPN or never watch Food Network, you were paying

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Speaker 1: for both of them in your bundle. Let me call,

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Speaker 1: let me pause, Let me pause you there for a

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Speaker 1: sec because there might be some people who don't understand that,

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Speaker 1: because it is really kind of interesting the bundle itself.

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Speaker 1: When we refer to the bundle, Let's say you have

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Speaker 1: a hundred cable channels and most people have more satellite channels.

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Speaker 1: Every channel costs something, right like, so I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of people look at that hundred dollar bill and

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Speaker 1: they don't think about the fact that really that hundred

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Speaker 1: dollar bill can be divided by a hundred different channels,

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Speaker 1: and you might pay a quarter for Lifetime and the

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Speaker 1: most expensive channel by far is ESPN. So from a

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Speaker 1: sports perspective, ESPN would cost now seven or eight dollars

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Speaker 1: a month on average of that hundred dollar cable bill,

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Speaker 1: and that is orders of magnitude higher than what any

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Speaker 1: other channel cost, right, because I think people understand, let's

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Speaker 1: say HBO, like if you're buying a premium movie channel,

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Speaker 1: they think, oh, I'm making that choice. I'm gonna pay

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Speaker 1: fifteen dollars a mon or whatever it is for HBO,

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Speaker 1: but they don't think about it in terms of dissecting

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Speaker 1: the other bill. But effectively, that's the business model, right.

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Speaker 1: So I didn't want to cut you off, but I

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Speaker 1: think there are some people who best and they won't

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Speaker 1: understand that. And I think that's the The issue is

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Speaker 1: that you know, each of these channels had a lot

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Speaker 1: of cost to it. That's why the bill was so expensive.

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Speaker 1: But the reality is it was also inflexible, and I

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Speaker 1: think you know did it. It wasn't Ala cart, It

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Speaker 1: wasn't like you could say, oh, I want this channel.

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Speaker 1: I don't want that when you didn't even know what

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Speaker 1: you were paying for, whereas presumably none of your listeners

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Speaker 1: are paying for You are paying for Netflix and don't

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Speaker 1: want it, and they know exactly what it costs, correct,

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Speaker 1: But they also know if they want to cancel tomorrow

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Speaker 1: they can. And if they want to add in CBS

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Speaker 1: All Access or they want to add in you know,

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Speaker 1: pick your channel or pick your service. They can come

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Speaker 1: on and off these services very easily with a click

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Speaker 1: of a button. No waiting on hold for two hours,

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Speaker 1: no one, no returning equipment and disconnecting boxes from your home.

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Speaker 1: It has become super easy. And I think you know

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Speaker 1: the reality is not just hasn't gotten easier um with

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Speaker 1: all these new services that are out there, but also

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Speaker 1: all of the content that is really exciting. And I'm

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Speaker 1: going to leave sports aside, and I know you want

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Speaker 1: to talk sports, but let's leave sports aside for a second.

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Speaker 1: The most ambitious, exciting content on TV is not on

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Speaker 1: TV right, whether it's HBO or Netflix or you know,

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Speaker 1: Amazon Prime, soon to be Apple tv Plus and Disney Plus.

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Speaker 1: All the really exciting, really expensive, ambitious TV projects are

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Speaker 1: all coming to these streaming services that you don't need

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Speaker 1: a bundle for, and so what's ultimately going to happen?

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Speaker 1: And this is the answer to your larger question of

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Speaker 1: like where's the bottom? And I'm going to flip it

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Speaker 1: around on you a little bit because I don't really

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Speaker 1: know the answer. The question is, or the the issue is.

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Speaker 1: I think the bottom is going to be how many people,

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Speaker 1: how many households in America have a die hard sports fan?

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Speaker 1: Because if you have a die hard sports fan, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna want the bundle because there is no way all

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Speaker 1: of the sports, whether it's what's on Broadcast TV, what's

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Speaker 1: on ESPN and FS one, what's on your regional sports

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Speaker 1: networks like Fox Sports, you know, pick your pick, your

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Speaker 1: your region. Getting all of that away from a big

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Speaker 1: bundle is going to be hard. The question, though, is

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Speaker 1: right now, there's roughly nine million homes that take some

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Speaker 1: form of cable bundle. It may be a YouTube TV

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Speaker 1: versus a Comcast, but roughly ninety million households are taking

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Speaker 1: some form of bundle. There are not ninety million households

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Speaker 1: with a die hard sports fan. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: that is sixty million homes homes. It's certainly not nine,

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Speaker 1: and I think the question for your listeners is how

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Speaker 1: big is that base of die hard sports fans. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's really what's gonna dictate where the

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Speaker 1: bottom is. And obviously we're now declining subscribers to bunds

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Speaker 1: of channels the way we historically have grown up with them.

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Speaker 1: The rate of decline was three year every year last quarter.

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Speaker 1: It will probably end the year closer to four to

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Speaker 1: five percent, if not greater. So there's a clear acceleration.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just five years ago subscribers were growing for

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Speaker 1: the industry, So we've gone from growth to now we're

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Speaker 1: at three or four or five percent declines you every year,

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Speaker 1: clearly accelerating. And there's lots of new services that all

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Speaker 1: of your listeners are going to have offered to them

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Speaker 1: over the coming year at really, you know, sometimes even free.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you buy a new iPhone, you're getting

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Speaker 1: Apple TV Plus for free. Disney's pricing really low on

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Speaker 1: their new service. So I think the trends are gonna

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Speaker 1: get worse, but the bottom is going to be dictated

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Speaker 1: by sports fans. And I just don't know how many

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Speaker 1: households have a die hard sports fan, and it's even

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Speaker 1: harder when I find a lot of sports fans in are,

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Speaker 1: especially younger sports fans, uh live in a highlights only world,

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Speaker 1: Like they're happy to watch highlights on YouTube or on

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Speaker 1: Facebook or on Twitter or instagram them or you know,

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Speaker 1: house of highlights on Instagram. Like you look at that

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Speaker 1: world where watching the live event is less important than

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Speaker 1: having the conversation around the highlights of that, and it

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Speaker 1: just makes you wonder, what is that number of households

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Speaker 1: that have to have everything live? I mean, there's not

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Speaker 1: millions of people every day watching ESPN. They do huge

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Speaker 1: viewership during Monday and football, but on a regular, random

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Speaker 1: night they don't have huge viewership. And so the question

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Speaker 1: is how many people have to have all of these channels?

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Speaker 1: And my gut is it smaller than you think. Be

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Speaker 1: sure to catch live editions about Kicked the coverage with

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Speaker 1: Clay Travis week days at six am Eastern three am Pacific.

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Speaker 1: We're talking to Rich Greenfeld. Encourage you to follow him

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at rich Lightshed. He's a partner at light Ched.

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Speaker 1: Before that it was at bt I G. Goldman Sachs.

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Speaker 1: All Right, you just said a lot of things that

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Speaker 1: I think are are really work diving into there. So

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Speaker 1: I want to go into it. So first I want

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Speaker 1: everybody out there listening to think about this. I have

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Speaker 1: heard a lot of sports fans over the year say, oh,

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Speaker 1: I want all a cart, Oh I would love to

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Speaker 1: not have to, uh to to subscribe to a cable

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Speaker 1: or satellite package. And my argument has been, what you

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Speaker 1: just put forward the bundle is actually a great deal

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Speaker 1: for the average sports fan historically because sports cost a

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Speaker 1: lot and was subsidized by many people who never watched it.

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Speaker 1: In other words, you know, like kind of use this

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Speaker 1: phrase your aunt gladys right, they don't watch right, Like,

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Speaker 1: so if you have an aunt and uncle who don't

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Speaker 1: care about sports at all, they're paying the same amount

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Speaker 1: for ESPN, FS one and and all the regional sports

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Speaker 1: channels that you or I would, and we consume it maniacally, right,

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Speaker 1: And what they watch doesn't cost anywhere near as much.

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Speaker 1: Like my wife sits around and watches Bravo all day, right,

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Speaker 1: which is great. I mean that's kind of the their

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Speaker 1: target market is, you know, moms and you know, like

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Speaker 1: affluent housewives. Honestly, uh, that's a huge part of their

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Speaker 1: their overall overall marketplace, and that's great, but the Bravo

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Speaker 1: would cost a fraction of what the channels I watch,

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Speaker 1: which are ESPN and sports related channels right f s

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Speaker 1: one the channel that I'm on, And so we are

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Speaker 1: getting subsidized, we meaning the sports fans by everybody else

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Speaker 1: out there who never watches live sports on cable or satellite.

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Speaker 1: The that subsidization model has worked in your favor sports

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Speaker 1: fans favor for a long time. It's interesting because if

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Speaker 1: you go to a country like the UK, a lot

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Speaker 1: of Europe, but certainly if you look at the UK

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Speaker 1: where Sky Sports is ala carte, so if you're a

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Speaker 1: soccer fan, you don't just not everybody pays for Sky Sports.

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Speaker 1: You have to physically decide that you want to pay

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Speaker 1: for it on an ala carte basis this country. The

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Speaker 1: model just developed from the very early days if you

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Speaker 1: look at what ESPN built where everybody was paying and

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Speaker 1: that model, unfortunately, um is great for the sports fan,

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Speaker 1: is not great for everybody else. And as it unwines,

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Speaker 1: I think this is what has you know this, this

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Speaker 1: certainly has every every one of the league's is certainly

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Speaker 1: concerned also, right because like and the reason you can

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Speaker 1: pay for their salaries are all predicated on joy by

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Speaker 1: people who never consume their content. I mean, think about

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Speaker 1: you know, if you think about you know, Major League Baseball, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, football may always find somebody just because there's

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Speaker 1: such a limited number of games and the ratings are

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Speaker 1: still off the charts for for football. But the other

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Speaker 1: leagues I think are certainly worried about the changing ecosystem,

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Speaker 1: and they're all trying to figure out how we get

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Speaker 1: digital bidders to come in, because you need deep pockets,

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Speaker 1: you know. As the the legacy buyers of this content

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Speaker 1: start to shrink, which is what we're started talking about

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Speaker 1: in terms of subscribers leaving the ecosystem, everyone's trying to

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Speaker 1: figure out where are the digital buyers, Like, are we

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Speaker 1: going to see the Google YouTube's, the facebooks, are twitters,

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Speaker 1: the Amazons? Are they going to step up and and

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Speaker 1: pay the big dollars or not? I mean, so far

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Speaker 1: they've spent little amounts of money and dabbled, but they

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Speaker 1: certainly haven't made a bold move to enter sports rights

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Speaker 1: the way the legacy players are. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: scary to all of the leagues and should be scary

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Speaker 1: to all the play as well. Alright, so I want

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Speaker 1: to go back into this too. You talked about the

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Speaker 1: rise of We talked a little bit about it. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, like the YouTube televisions of the world, the

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Speaker 1: sling televisions, all those things. Basically, there are a lot

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Speaker 1: of people who cut the cord and may go in

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Speaker 1: and then subscribe to a bundle that exists through a

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Speaker 1: streaming service. Here is a challenge I think that is

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Speaker 1: going to become more and more apparent to the world

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Speaker 1: of sports that they really haven't thought that much about

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Speaker 1: it is. You talked about the ease with which you

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Speaker 1: can decide to cut a Netflix subscription. Let's say you

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Speaker 1: are a huge Stranger Things fan, right, like, it's wildly popular,

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Speaker 1: everybody's watching it. You know that season three is gonna debut.

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Speaker 1: When did a debut? Like July four this year? We

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Speaker 1: and you watched it like the Eight Hour Show or whatever.

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Speaker 1: It is. Really quickly, you can subscribe for one month,

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Speaker 1: catch up on everything you would want to see on

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Speaker 1: Netflix theoretically, and leave and not come back for three

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Speaker 1: or four months and catch back up then, right, the

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Speaker 1: same thing can be true for sports. You mentioned the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Let's say that I'm out there and I'm a huge

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Speaker 1: NFL and a college football fan, which there obviously is

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Speaker 1: massive numbers of people out there. But that's a very

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Speaker 1: seasonal sport. So let's say that I only want to

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Speaker 1: watch those sports during football season, so I'm going to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to them from September to January. I can do

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Speaker 1: five months of subscription, never miss any games, leave for

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Speaker 1: seven months, not pay for anything, come back, and still

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Speaker 1: be able to watch the NFL every year. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: I think that the degree to which the uniting services

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Speaker 1: will be bought in monthly instrements is underrated here. But

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Speaker 1: here's the real problem with this, Clay, and this is

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Speaker 1: why it gets so challenging. So not only were people

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Speaker 1: who weren't sports fans helping subsidize sports Because if you

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Speaker 1: think about it, let's just say ESPN is eight dollars

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Speaker 1: and roughly, you know, you've got over eighty million people

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Speaker 1: have access to ESPN today, So they're paying over eight

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Speaker 1: dollars a month for twelve months of the year. If

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Speaker 1: you only went to the people that wanted to have

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Speaker 1: a yes, yet you know literally would pay for it.

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Speaker 1: My guess is instead of eighty million households that really

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Speaker 1: want ESPN drops to thirty million or less. And let

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Speaker 1: me let me explain why I think that's a good

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Speaker 1: I think that's a good number. Roughly is you look

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Speaker 1: for instance, at the most popular programming that a ESPN has,

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Speaker 1: and that would be Monday night football, and that would

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Speaker 1: be the NBA either the Eastern or the Western Conference

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Speaker 1: finals every year, and they are not rating much more

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Speaker 1: than thirteen million, twelve million, ten million people watching that

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Speaker 1: on any given nights. So even if you double the

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Speaker 1: most popular thing that they have, that would still be

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Speaker 1: a tiny fraction of the overall people that have access. Right. So,

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Speaker 1: in other words, if you have eighty million households that

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Speaker 1: have access to ESPN on any given Monday night football game,

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Speaker 1: and I'm just roughly approximating here, let's say twelve or

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Speaker 1: thirteen million people are watching on average, which I think

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Speaker 1: is about right. That would mean that in your number

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Speaker 1: over half of the people still would not at thirty million,

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Speaker 1: but certainly an eighty million. It's you know, whatever it is,

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Speaker 1: you know, twelve out of eighty or thirteen out of

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Speaker 1: eighty it's a small percentage of people who have access

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Speaker 1: that watch. Now. So even if you've made him charge like,

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Speaker 1: I think thirty millions a good number. And then you

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Speaker 1: have to get what you're gonna get, but you have

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Speaker 1: to pay, right, So instead of paying eight dollars, you

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Speaker 1: gotta pay twenty four. Then the question is per month.

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Speaker 1: But then the question is if you're only a fan

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Speaker 1: of one season of sport, then you only sign up,

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Speaker 1: as you just said, for five months of the year.

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Speaker 1: So instead of spending the math we did is twenty

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Speaker 1: four dollars a month to the entire year. If you

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Speaker 1: have a whole bunch of people who are only seasonal

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Speaker 1: sports fans, instead of twenty four dollars, it might be

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Speaker 1: forty dollars. So because you have even fewer people that

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Speaker 1: are willing to subscribe for the full year, so you

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Speaker 1: you you kind of get into this vicious cycle with

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Speaker 1: a price. Monthly price has to keep going up to

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Speaker 1: compensate for the less number of subscribers and nightly viewers.

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Speaker 1: And you quickly see that it is a really different

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Speaker 1: cult model for sports to live in an ala carte world.

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Speaker 1: And you know, we haven't even talked about what the advertising.

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Speaker 1: What would happen to advertising as as the viewership reached

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Speaker 1: shrank relative to other places and so you know, I

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Speaker 1: think these are the real challenges that that the legacy

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Speaker 1: ecosystem faces, and in many ways, it's why you're seeing

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Speaker 1: the consolidation. You know, we're seeing a lot of transactions

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Speaker 1: in the media space over the last few years, Time

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Speaker 1: Warner selling out to a T and T, Discovery and

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Speaker 1: Scripts merging, CBS and Viacom just are started the process

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Speaker 1: of reemerging. Disney bought you know, you're a lot of

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Speaker 1: the assets from your former parent company and Fox. Like,

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Speaker 1: all of this consolidation is playing out because this ecosystem

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Speaker 1: of broadcast and cable television is really under attack and

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Speaker 1: really the future is all of these streaming services. And

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Speaker 1: I think you're your your listeners they already know it, right,

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Speaker 1: Like they've already like they're spending their time watching whatever

431
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 1: they want. You know, it's funny. I sent out a

432
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 1: tweet um or you know, about the Emmy's being down.

433
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: Viewership for the Emmy's was down liket year every year

434
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, and I sent out something that said

435
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 1: everyone was probably too busy binging, and you know, someone

436
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 1: resplied to me and said, oh yeah, I watched two

437
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: episodes of Ozark's one episode of Succession, one episode of Ballers,

438
00:22:23,040 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 1: and I watched the movie between Two Ferns during the

439
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 1: Emmy's telecast, and I was thinking, like, that's what people

440
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: are doing, right, Like they're assembling their own entertainment from

441
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,600
Speaker 1: all of these different services, and they'll sign up and

442
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 1: they'll try something, and they'll cancel this, and they're managing

443
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: their entertainment life much like they manage the apps on

444
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: their cell phone, meaning they just go on and off

445
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: of whatever they want to use, and and they're in

446
00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: control versus these big gate keepers of bundlers of channels

447
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:50,919
Speaker 1: being in control of the way they have been in

448
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 1: the past. Rich the way I think about it. And

449
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 1: you're I'm forty, I think are around the same age.

450
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: You're in your forties as well, but I'm a little older.

451
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: I'm a little older, but not much. Fox Sports Radio

452
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 1: has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch

453
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,800
Speaker 1: all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com

454
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 1: and within the I Heart Radio app search f s

455
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 1: R to listen live. Al Right, So when you were

456
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 1: a kid, or I was a kid, if I missed

457
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: my favorite show on television, I was screwed, right, Like

458
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 1: I was like, oh my god, I missed G I.

459
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: Joe today, like my life is over right. Like when

460
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 1: I would get home from school, I'd watch G I.

461
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,119
Speaker 1: Joe when I was a little kid, and if I

462
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 1: missed it, it it was like four o'clock in the afternoon

463
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: it was on. I wouldn't get to see it for

464
00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: that day. Unless you know, my mom didn't know how

465
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 1: to work the VCR. I don't think my dad mom

466
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 1: still know how to work the VCR, so I wouldn't

467
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,080
Speaker 1: see it. Right now, my kids today, and I've told

468
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 1: this story before, but my kids today expect that every

469
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: program that has ever existed in the history of the world,

470
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 1: they should be able to watch it whenever they want, right. So,

471
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,440
Speaker 1: like I have a five, you just turned five. We

472
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: watched Spider Man in my house like probably four times

473
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 1: a day, right, Like he wants to watch a different

474
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 1: Spider Man all day long, every day. And it's funny.

475
00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:01,760
Speaker 1: When we watch sports now and I'm curious how this

476
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: is gonna eventually have to evolve, They're like, oh, it's

477
00:24:04,640 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: so boring these commercials. And I tell a funny story,

478
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 1: Like we were out in l A when I was

479
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 1: working at Fox a few years ago, and I had

480
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: my two oldest with me and they were in the

481
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,239
Speaker 1: hotel room and that I was working out in the

482
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: other room and they were on the bed watching television.

483
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,360
Speaker 1: They're like, Dad, Dad, get in here. What is this?

484
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 1: And I was like, oh, no, do you know they

485
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,879
Speaker 1: get on the adult film somehow? Like what in the

486
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: world has you know they have? They hit on the

487
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,960
Speaker 1: remote or whatever else. It was a commercial rich They

488
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 1: had never at the time before when we had gone

489
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,359
Speaker 1: to the hotel, they had never watched a show on

490
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: commercial because everything they watched was on demand, And they

491
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: were like, why am I not getting to watch my show?

492
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 1: Why did they stop it? Right like that? Now, this

493
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: is when they were young, probably like my two oldest

494
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 1: are like six and four years old. But everything they

495
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: had watched up to that point was on demand and

496
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,880
Speaker 1: there were no commercials, and so like this, this this

497
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: ecosystem that they are growing up in is they expect

498
00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: for everything to be immediately available to them. That's every existed,

499
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: and they expect to watch a commercial free. And I

500
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: don't know that the media has caught up to how

501
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: this world is going to exist, right, Like if you

502
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 1: just think about it, By the way, this is wins

503
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 1: and losses. I'm Clay Travis. We're talking with Rich Greenfield.

504
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 1: I know you've got kids. You probably watched the way

505
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,399
Speaker 1: they consume media, and it's so seismically different than the

506
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: way we did. And a lot of the executives are

507
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: our age or much older, and I think they're still

508
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 1: trying to struggle to figure out what their markets doing. Well.

509
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 1: I mean, it's also what they watch is a broader definition, right,

510
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 1: I mean, watching can be playing on TikTok snap, you know,

511
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:43,840
Speaker 1: snapping people on Snapchat, watching Instagram videos, YouTube videos, watching ninja,

512
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: play video games, play Fortnite. I mean, the competition for

513
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: time is at a whole new level. It used to be,

514
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,239
Speaker 1: you know, you and I going to grade school, right,

515
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:57,400
Speaker 1: you came home and either you went out and played

516
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 1: with your friends, played aboard game where you turned on

517
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: the TV and watch whatever happened to be on at

518
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: that exact moment in time. You didn't have a whole

519
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 1: lot of choices. Now, as you said, not just every

520
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 1: TV show ever created is essentially available somewhere commercial free

521
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 1: in many cases. But you have a choice of activities

522
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 1: that is sort of endless to you know, the curius

523
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: for boredom are an endless array of things that are

524
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 1: you know that, and that that list is growing by

525
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,840
Speaker 1: the day in terms of what you can do. And

526
00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 1: I think in that light, it sort of makes sense

527
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 1: that linear TV is losing not to make you know,

528
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: you have to actually be there at the exact moment

529
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: to watch linearly live, you have to deal with commercials.

530
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 1: It's just not a great experience in some cases. I

531
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: think more and more consumers are just waiting for shows

532
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: to finish their season and so they can just binge

533
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: them all at you know, over the course of X

534
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: number of days, rather than even dealing with the week

535
00:26:47,560 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: to week. Oh. I think there's people who take vacations

536
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 1: now and they're like, what are you doing on your vacation.

537
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 1: They're like, I'm gonna watch the newest season of Ozark,

538
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: you know, like I'm taking Friday off and I'm just

539
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 1: gonna I guarantee you, there's a huge if we can

540
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: somehow get the data if it hadn't been on July four, Like,

541
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: I guarantee you. During the summer, there were people who

542
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 1: just took off Monday or Friday and just decided to

543
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 1: sit at home, pop popcorn and watch Stranger Things all day, right, Like,

544
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 1: that's a really enjoyable way to spend time with your friends,

545
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:18,359
Speaker 1: your family, or even by yourself. Now, Uh, there's so

546
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: many things we can talk about, but I want to

547
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: kind of circle it back around here on You said

548
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 1: something interesting just then talking about live event and we talked.

549
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,360
Speaker 1: You talked about the the Emmys and how they hit

550
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 1: a ratings low and everything else. But there is a

551
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 1: theory out there that I think I subscribe to, and

552
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: I bet that you do as well, based on what

553
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: I've read. And the first person that I saw basically

554
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,480
Speaker 1: put it out publicly was Read Hastings, at least in

555
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,879
Speaker 1: this universe of of media companies, and he said, basically,

556
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: the only reason for television to exist in the future

557
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 1: will be news and sports, Like that's pretty much it,

558
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 1: because it's live and the minute something happens from a

559
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:57,479
Speaker 1: news perspective, if there's a hurricane, then everybody's gonna put

560
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 1: on the weather channel because they're gonna want to know

561
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 1: what's gonna happened with the hurricane, or Donald Trump does something,

562
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: or something happens in the election with whoever he's running against,

563
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: and everybody's going to rush to their television to watch

564
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,880
Speaker 1: the debate, or watch all of the coverage surrounding that.

565
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 1: God forbid we ever have another nine eleven. Like, live

566
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: news is tough to be right, same thing is true

567
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 1: of sports, like you will sit down. They own your

568
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: attention because you can't see it anywhere else. Do you

569
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,960
Speaker 1: buy into that? Basically, all that live television, all that

570
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 1: television like that we've grown up getting used to, really

571
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: needs to exist for is live event meaning news and sports? Yeah,

572
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 1: although I'd say that even when you look at something

573
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: like news, I think there's an increasing number of people

574
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: that are getting news and other platforms. Right, So when

575
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 1: you look at when you look at Twitter for instance,

576
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: which you know I think you and I are both

577
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: addicted to. Yes, that's an incredible platform for news. It's

578
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 1: like having any news wire. The way I compare it

579
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: is like if back in the day, you know, if

580
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 1: you get worked at the newspaper, you've got to go

581
00:28:57,840 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: in and you like see the news breaking on the

582
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 1: AP news wire and you'd have it. That's what everybody

583
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 1: basically has with Twitter if you use it in that

584
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 1: form and fashion. Yeah, I mean, and if you pull

585
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: up the explore tab on Twitter, there's always some live

586
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 1: something that's happening right then in there that's coming out,

587
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 1: and so you know, the reality is, yes, I think

588
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: news will be important, but I do think that the

589
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: kind of the just watch cable news in the evening,

590
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: the Fox News, the CNN, I mean that's an old viewer, right, Like,

591
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of what I would call younger viewers.

592
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 1: And I put younger in the category of under the

593
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,479
Speaker 1: age of fifty in this sense, there's not a lot

594
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: of under fifties that are tuning into cable news every

595
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: evening to watch lit alone local broadcast news. And so

596
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: I think news will will matter, but least I think

597
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: sports is the one where the challenge with sports is

598
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: no one has shown an economic model that works outside

599
00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: of the traditional TV ecosystem for big expensive sports. I mean,

600
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: you've got certain things like UFC has gone to ESPN Plus,

601
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,720
Speaker 1: which is obviously a subscription over the top service, but

602
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: we haven't seen much in the way of major sports

603
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: rights end up anywhere outside of the legacy coast. To me,

604
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 1: how you can watch Thursday Net football on Amazon Prime

605
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 1: a one game a week you can watch there, but

606
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: there just isn't a lot of ability to watch the

607
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: best of local sports. You can get an antenna and

608
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: get you know, your locals. You know games that whatever

609
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: is on a b sorry on on CBS or Fox.

610
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: But if you want to watch all the stuff that's

611
00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 1: on ESPN or on your regional sports network, all of

612
00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: that stuff or fs want all of that stuff, you

613
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 1: need a cable bundle. And I think it's going to

614
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: take time for that really to break. I mean, we

615
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: keep looking for signs. I think there was a lot

616
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 1: of people hopeful that Sunday Ticket might move off of

617
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 1: a T and T s Direct TV, and that seems

618
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: increasingly unlikely to happen anytime in the next few years,

619
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: and so we keep hoping from new entrants and it

620
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 1: just hasn't happened yet. Fox Sports Radio has the best

621
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

622
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the

623
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

624
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:10,320
Speaker 1: We're talking to Rich Greenfield. You should follow him on

625
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: Twitter at rich Lightshed I believe is your new Twitter handle.

626
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: You can correct me on that if I'm wrong, I'll

627
00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: obviously be tweet I'll be tweeting this out when when

628
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: this podcast goes up and you can certainly go follow him.

629
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 1: I encourage you to awesome stuff that he puts out

630
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,959
Speaker 1: on a regular basis. Let's go into this ESPN Plus,

631
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,240
Speaker 1: which I think is a big part of the Disney

632
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: overall model. Well let me start here. Uh, you could

633
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: probably explain it better than I can. But succinctly, Disney

634
00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 1: is about to become an aggressive streaming player. They have

635
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,719
Speaker 1: Hulu now that they have majority control over. They have

636
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: Disney Plus and Hulu. Basically my understanding is gonna be

637
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: kind of their adolescent you know, like if you're PG thirteen,

638
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: for lack of a better way to place it, then

639
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: they'll have Disney Plus, which is like their kids offering.

640
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: Uh that I think almost everybody will have an ESPN

641
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: Plus which is their sports offering, and they will bundle

642
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: all three of those together. But all three of those

643
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: are distinct streaming entities. Have I got that correct in

644
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: terms of the way that that that platform is out there?

645
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: You now did, and I think you know. Look, Bob

646
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 1: Iger's declared Disney's chairman and CEO is declared that streaming

647
00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: is the company's number one priority. He put Kevin Mayer

648
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 1: in charge of all things streaming, and so you know,

649
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: Kevin and his team are hard at work on launching

650
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: Disney Plus UM, which is gonna come out in November eleventh.

651
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 1: Hulo's obviously got roughly thirty million subscribers. ESPN Plus is

652
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: a niche service. It's got two point three two point

653
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:37,400
Speaker 1: four million subscribers. I think ESPN Plus in many ways

654
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 1: is still trying to figure out what it wants to be.

655
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: I mean, I think in many ways it may be

656
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: more of a a long term life raft for ESPN

657
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: the cable channels as the bundle breaks down, versus you know,

658
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: things like Disney Plus and Hulu are clearly core business

659
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 1: initiatives of the Walt Disney company. I think ESPN is

660
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 1: still trying to figure out which rights to move over,

661
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 1: how fast to move over rights, how you know, there's

662
00:33:06,360 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: a lot of confusion between ESPN and ESPN Plus. And

663
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,479
Speaker 1: if you looked at the US Open recently, people who

664
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: were subscribing to the U T to ESPN Plus thought

665
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 1: they could watch the Serena match. But of course the

666
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: Serena match was part of what was on the cable

667
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,480
Speaker 1: network ESPN, not ESPN Plus, the over the top service,

668
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: and so these naming conventions. Everyone wants to use their

669
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: legacy brands. It's really confusing to your listeners, really confusing. Yeah,

670
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,720
Speaker 1: it is so fascinating, Okay. And I want to break

671
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 1: those three down because to me, I like to try

672
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 1: to just think about things from a basic business model perspective,

673
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: like what is your business model? And the business model

674
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: to me that makes sense for Disney Plus and Hulu

675
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:46,959
Speaker 1: is different than the ESPN. And let me make an

676
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: argument here, and you tell me whether or not you

677
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: buy in. Disney is with Marvel and with uh the

678
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 1: Marvel which they bought for people who don't know, and

679
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: they own all the Star Wars. They bought Lucas Arts,

680
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,440
Speaker 1: and they also went out and they bought pick s Are.

681
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 1: That's about owning content forever and being able to distribute

682
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 1: it forever. An easy way to think about it is

683
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:10,200
Speaker 1: my grandkids, hopefully that I have some will one day

684
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,520
Speaker 1: watch Toy Story, right, and they may well watch Lost,

685
00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 1: the television show, right. Disney owns that forever. They will

686
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 1: also probably grow up and watch sporting events. But ESPN

687
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,480
Speaker 1: just rents those sporting events, so I don't know who

688
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: will be distributing. Let's say like I'm a big Southeastern

689
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 1: Conference football fan, right, I don't know who will be

690
00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: distributing SEC football games in t I would like to

691
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: be alive and be watching them, but I have no

692
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: idea who will distribute them because that conference is not owned.

693
00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: So ESPN is effectively in the middleman business. It rents

694
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: somebody else's assets and tries to make money off taking

695
00:34:50,719 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 1: them to the public. There a distribution play as opposed

696
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 1: to an ownership play. And it seems to me like

697
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: when you look at Disney Plus and you look at

698
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: who who, what they're about is owning content. So there's

699
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: kind of a disconnect there. Does that make sense to you?

700
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,240
Speaker 1: The business models are different, one of the most fundamental level,

701
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 1: between what Disney is doing with Pixar, with Marvel and

702
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: with UH with the Star Wars, for instance, than what

703
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 1: they're doing with trying to put on the NFL or

704
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 1: the UFC or anything else that they have the rights to.

705
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: I mean, look, sports networks are essentially renting their content.

706
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 1: They don't own the content. Um you know, even something

707
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: like UFC is only on ESPN Plus for the next

708
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 1: six years, It's not on forever. Yes, um w W

709
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 1: E just shifted some of their content from NBC over

710
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: to Fox right. I mean, the reality is you don't

711
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: control these things because the leagues and the team owners

712
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: own these assets, not the cable or broadcast networks, and

713
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 1: so the business is fundamentally very different. And I think, look,

714
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: I think that's part of the reason why if you

715
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: look at a company like Apple, you know, or even

716
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 1: look at Netflix, why have these massive companies not entered sports?

717
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,720
Speaker 1: And I think, Clay, you nailed it, I mean totally

718
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 1: nail did. The reason is is because if you create

719
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: the Morning Show for Apple TV plus you own it,

720
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: you don't own it well, and not just in the US,

721
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 1: literally everywhere in the world. So every Apple there's nine

722
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,400
Speaker 1: hundred million Apple devices iPhones all over the world that

723
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 1: have been sold right the installed base, every one of

724
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 1: them can watch the Morning Show the minute it comes out.

725
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: An Apple can run global ad campaign and everybody can

726
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: watch that show. If Apple bought Monday Night Football, only

727
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: the people in the US could watch it because they

728
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: don't have the global rights. That is, I think roughly

729
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: seventeen percent of Apple devices iPhones have been you know

730
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: or in the US. They're really a global company. And

731
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: so if you think about Netflix. The same thing. You

732
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 1: can spend billions of dollars on sports rights. I don't

733
00:36:57,360 --> 00:37:00,160
Speaker 1: care whether we're talking MLB or we're talking and a fel,

734
00:37:00,200 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: but you can spend billions of dollars on sports rights

735
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: that works in one market only on certain devices because

736
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: a lot of them. What you can do on a

737
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: smart TV versus on a phone, versus a tablet versus

738
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 1: laptop are often very different, So you have device restrictions, geographical,

739
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 1: you know, regional differences in terms of what you have

740
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: access to versus stranger things as Netflix is all over

741
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 1: the world. So I think it makes it that it

742
00:37:23,719 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: makes it really hard to want to be in the

743
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: regional licensing business for content when you can be in

744
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:32,959
Speaker 1: the global ownership of content business. And I think that's

745
00:37:33,000 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 1: really the distinction that you're drawing when you're looking at

746
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: Disney and Hulu relative to something like ESPN Plus. And

747
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: I think it plays into why sports really hasn't moved

748
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:47,359
Speaker 1: into that digital arena. It's really hard to justify when

749
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 1: you don't have the global reach um available for that content. Yeah,

750
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: and it also raises larger questions like do you think

751
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: that if Bob Iger and Disney had their choice that

752
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 1: they wish they could stream the like siphon, ESPN off

753
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: in its own business. Now, if you look at ESPN

754
00:38:05,040 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 1: as a as a standalone entity, the challenge to me

755
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 1: that they have is ESPN Plus. You really hit on it. Like,

756
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 1: people want to watch Serena Williams match and they may

757
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: sign up for ESPN Plus. But ESPN Plus only carries

758
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 1: the events that aren't good enough to put on ESPN,

759
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: ESPN two, ESPN you the SEC network, Like, you can

760
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 1: already stream ESPN the app if you have regular cable

761
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: and satellite subscriptions whatever else. But ESPN Plus is just

762
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: an additive. But it's an additive that doesn't feature the

763
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 1: most essential of their products. Right. It's not as if

764
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,479
Speaker 1: you have to have ESPN Plus in order to watch

765
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football. Now, that would be an aggressive play. If,

766
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 1: for instance, when Monday Night Football came up, they said, oh,

767
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 1: we're taking it off ESPN and the only way you

768
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,040
Speaker 1: can watch it is on ESPN Plus, Well, a lot

769
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:55,479
Speaker 1: of people would probably sign up, but it's a big risk.

770
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,439
Speaker 1: It takes down the number of eyeballs on that game.

771
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,399
Speaker 1: The NFL is not happy all those things. So I don't.

772
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not even sure the NFL would allow it. Yeah,

773
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: I mean I think that's also part of the the issue, right,

774
00:39:05,640 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 1: is that if you whatever they want to do with Mandalorian,

775
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: which is you know, because you could certainly argue the

776
00:39:10,400 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 1: Mandalorian which is coming to Disney. Plus it's you know,

777
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: super expensive Star Wars they're saying, right, correct, huge expense.

778
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 1: So you look at something like that, would you get

779
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: more eyeballs on Sunday Night on ABC? Of course, yes,

780
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 1: of course, Like it's not even a question. But they

781
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 1: own the property, they own the content, and Disney can

782
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 1: choose what to do with it. And so that's a

783
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 1: great example of when you own the i P you

784
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: get to build your business with that. However you see

785
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 1: fit with content like minute football. The NFL is very

786
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 1: focused on reach, right. I mean, if you were to

787
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 1: get Roger Goodell and talk to him, you know he

788
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: would I think he Every time you hear Roger talk publicly,

789
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 1: it's always about we want as many people to be

790
00:39:55,920 --> 00:39:59,160
Speaker 1: exposed to football as possible, to keep people engaged with

791
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 1: the sports of people are playing the sport, like we

792
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,919
Speaker 1: want to keep football on everybody's mind all the time.

793
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 1: It's why all the major rights are still on broadcast TV.

794
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 1: To put a major rights package on a platform like

795
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 1: ESPN Plus that has two point four million viewers would

796
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:18,000
Speaker 1: be a disaster for the NFL. Like, it doesn't sound

797
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: like that's in the best interests of the NFL. It's

798
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:24,839
Speaker 1: certainly not Sunday Ticket. I could MAYBC because that's kind

799
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: of a very you know, that has a far more

800
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 1: focused group of premium viewers as an add on to

801
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 1: ESPN Plus. I I could mentally see why something like

802
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,279
Speaker 1: Someday Ticket could make sense. But to put something like

803
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 1: Monday Night Football, forget about whether Disney wanted to do

804
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: it mathematically, The question is why in the world, if

805
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: you were sitting at the NFL, why would you want

806
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 1: to be on a platform with so little reach. I

807
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 1: think sports is always yeah sorry, catching is money, yeah right,

808
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 1: and you would just take so much money. But that

809
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: they don't want the money because it's money in conjunction

810
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 1: with the amount of fans that can watch and consume

811
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 1: your product. But but I'll ask you, Clay I to

812
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,919
Speaker 1: actually be curious of your thoughts on this. So when

813
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 1: you think about let's just say Amazon, let's just let's

814
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 1: just say Amazon came in tomorrow and said we want

815
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: Monday on Football for three billion dollars instead of the

816
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: two billion that ESPN is currently paying. Right now, lots

817
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 1: of people still turn on, especially older consumers, certainly turn

818
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 1: on ESPN and just watch on an evening and they

819
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 1: know that that's where Monday of Football is. There's casual viewing.

820
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,359
Speaker 1: You know, you're maybe there's less channel flipping today than

821
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: there's ever been, but there's still people that flip channels

822
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 1: and just have the TV on for hours a day.

823
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 1: Putting the Monday Football on Amazon, you physically would have

824
00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: to go to Amazon Prime to watch, and you'd have

825
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:44,320
Speaker 1: to have a Roku, turn on Amazon Prime or in

826
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 1: a fire TV and watch Amazon Prime. And I think

827
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,399
Speaker 1: the fear would be is that you'd lose a lot

828
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: of You keep all the passionate, you know, the football

829
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:54,960
Speaker 1: crazy is, the die hard football fans are more content

830
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 1: wherever they go. For sure, they're going to find the game,

831
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:01,439
Speaker 1: for sure, But do you lose the acsual viewer as

832
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:05,320
Speaker 1: you shift from these linear platforms that people are accustomed

833
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: to to digital platforms where most people think of these

834
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: as hey, I want to go stream fleabag where I

835
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 1: want to go stream Mrs Mazal or whatever the show.

836
00:42:13,680 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 1: Maybe that's why you're turning on Amazon. You're not turning

837
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:20,000
Speaker 1: it on to watch the nightly sports event. And having

838
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 1: just one sports event meeting Monday at football seventeen weeks

839
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:26,919
Speaker 1: a year is very different than having sports content seven

840
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: where there's always a reason to tune in for sports

841
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,919
Speaker 1: on Amazon. And I think that's sort of the risk

842
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,360
Speaker 1: that you run is that you know, people are not

843
00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 1: accustomed to consuming sports on these platforms, and so you

844
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 1: lose a lot of the casual eyeballs and you're only

845
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: going to get the die hards. And that's a big issue.

846
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: I don't care if you're the NFL or your MLB

847
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,879
Speaker 1: or NHL like NBA like, it's an issue for all

848
00:42:49,920 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: of these leagues and owners as they think about the

849
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 1: shift from the traditional kind of channel ecosystem to the

850
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,160
Speaker 1: over the top ecosystem. The question that I was going

851
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:00,320
Speaker 1: to get into there is do you think that Biger

852
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 1: and Disney would like to spend a ESPN off of

853
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 1: its own business? Because the hit that I was getting

854
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: there is they're in a different business than everything that

855
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 1: it seems like they're focused on and streaming. And I

856
00:43:10,640 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 1: understand the argument of, oh no, they're in the sports business.

857
00:43:13,440 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 1: We want to put together a bundle with the ESPN

858
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,319
Speaker 1: Plus and Hulu and also with Disney Plus. But you

859
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 1: hit on it like they don't have the ability to

860
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: take like the Mandalorian for people out there who don't know,

861
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: it's a new Star Wars show which will cost fifteen

862
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: million dollars an episode, and they're gonna put it on

863
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:31,720
Speaker 1: Disney Plus. In theory, they could decide to make another

864
00:43:31,760 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 1: Star Wars movie and go direct to uh, the consumer

865
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 1: on Disney Plus and say you have to subscribe to

866
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 1: Disney Plus to watch this as opposed to go to

867
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: the theater. Maybe it won't happen, maybe it will, but

868
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: there's no comparable ability to do that with anything that

869
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: ESPN has. You know, I got into a fun Twitter

870
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: debate with Scott Van Pelt a few years ago and

871
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: he made, you know, there was all these questions about

872
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:59,560
Speaker 1: ESPN's long term potential, and he made some comment that like,

873
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,360
Speaker 1: you know, okay, so ESPN is only gonna make X

874
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 1: billion versus y billion. You know, I think it's like

875
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:06,720
Speaker 1: six billion versus seven billion, Like it's still a massive company,

876
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:09,759
Speaker 1: and you know, the growth is certainly really challenge for

877
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: all the reasons we're talking about on this podcast. But

878
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 1: if you're the Walt Disney company, I mean, this is

879
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 1: an asset that throws off a tremendous amount of cash.

880
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it may not be a growth business anymore,

881
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 1: but it's an incredible cash cow. I mean, there's not

882
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,280
Speaker 1: a lot of you know, the cost of running ESPN

883
00:44:25,800 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: relative to lots of other you know, think about the

884
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: theme park and all the capital that you have to

885
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: do to build that business. I mean, this is a

886
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 1: business throws off a tremendous amount of cash and certainly

887
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: helps Disney build other businesses. And so I'd be surprised

888
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: if they got rid of the ESPN. I mean, I

889
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 1: think it it presents real challenges. And I hear you

890
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 1: on the fact that they don't own their I P.

891
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 1: You know, they've tried to do more. If you look

892
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 1: at Connor Shell and his team and what they've done

893
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,760
Speaker 1: with thirty for thirty, it's pretty amazing the content they've created.

894
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 1: Uh you know, I think you know there's an example

895
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:57,720
Speaker 1: of they own thirty for thirty, they put it on ESPN.

896
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:00,439
Speaker 1: Plus Now a lot less people watch thirty for thirty

897
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,799
Speaker 1: than they used to. They own the content, so they

898
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,320
Speaker 1: so they can do what they can't do with the NFL.

899
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 1: Is that example, you know, they created the show NFL

900
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:10,960
Speaker 1: Prime Time or they're bringing back NFL Prime Time, they're

901
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 1: putting that on ESPN Plus. Again, there are things they

902
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:19,280
Speaker 1: can do um with ESPN Plus to make it better.

903
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: But you know, I think you're hitting on the question

904
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: really to me is less about whether you get rid

905
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 1: of the ESPN, but do you stop investing in it?

906
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: Do you stop going after the NFL rights because it

907
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 1: just doesn't make sense in the model anymore. And do

908
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 1: you just harvest cash out of the ESPN or do

909
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 1: you keep doubling down and keep spending to own more

910
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 1: sports rights. It seems like ESPN is focused on acquiring

911
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 1: more sports rights. That seems to be the messaging from

912
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: Jimmy Pittaro and the ESPN team. But we'll see there's

913
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 1: a lot of rights aret becoming available as you move

914
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 1: into and we'll see how ambitious Disney is when it

915
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: comes to tackling those rights acquisitions and or maybe moving

916
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 1: some stuff to a e C right. I mean, there's

917
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: an argument. I think it's probably a pretty good one

918
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 1: that Monday Night Football could come off of ESPN and

919
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 1: moved to ABC, potentially to take advantage of the fact

920
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: that theoretically ABC is not bleeding the same number of

921
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: consumers subscribers. The other thing I would say on that

922
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,359
Speaker 1: front is, you remember, probably back in the day when

923
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: ESPN made Playmakers, right, it was like the fictional story

924
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: about the NFL, and the NFL got upset so they

925
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 1: killed the show. Imagine how much different the thought process

926
00:46:28,840 --> 00:46:32,280
Speaker 1: would be if, say ESPN had created Friday Night Lights,

927
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,720
Speaker 1: if they had created all these shows that have iconic

928
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 1: value that then they could put on ESPN Plus. Then

929
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 1: you've got like, oh, I gotta watch this new episode

930
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 1: of this show. It's so good. Even Ballers, which you

931
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, if that were in ESPN production as opposed

932
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: to an HBO hard right, that things that you would

933
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,279
Speaker 1: have to have as a premium subscriber. All right, let's

934
00:46:56,280 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 1: go um outside of the the ESPN plug, Well, will

935
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: you ask you this on ESPN Plus? Will it ever

936
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:10,719
Speaker 1: make money? Oh my god? You know, look, sports is

937
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: a very expensive business. As we just talked about. The

938
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: subscriber base that you need you know, I think ESPN

939
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,600
Speaker 1: spent for ESPN Plus. Forget about even the pay per views,

940
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:25,719
Speaker 1: but they spent a hundred and fifty million dollars a

941
00:47:25,800 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: year to acquire the rights for the USC just for

942
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,840
Speaker 1: the ESPN Plus. There's more rights for ESPN the cable network,

943
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: but for ESPN Plus they spent a hundred and fifty

944
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 1: million dollars. When you think about that, you know that's

945
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,640
Speaker 1: since the only get four for ESPN Plus a month,

946
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,440
Speaker 1: even if you subscribe for the entire year, they need

947
00:47:45,480 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 1: two and a half million subscribers just to break even

948
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 1: on one piece of content. UFC they don't even have

949
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: two and a half million subscribers yet, and there's lots

950
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: of other content and sports rights they've paid for for Plus.

951
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: So it is. You know, Disney is said over the

952
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: next five years they're going to get this in the

953
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 1: profitability with millions more subscribers. Uh. You know, I think

954
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 1: we're skeptical in its current how they've currently positioned it.

955
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,800
Speaker 1: Do they go out and acquire some far bigger sports

956
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,359
Speaker 1: rights and start really growing the subscriber number. I think

957
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: time will tell. But doing sports in and over the

958
00:48:18,480 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 1: top model, I think if there was a clear path

959
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,760
Speaker 1: to profitability. Lots of the tech companies would be jumping

960
00:48:24,760 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 1: in in a big way, and I think the fact

961
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 1: that they're not is that nobody really is clear how

962
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,680
Speaker 1: you make this profitable right now. So does that mean

963
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: you don't buy into the long range future of the zone.

964
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,400
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've been to their their offices.

965
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 1: I was there, I don't know, probably a couple of

966
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:40,360
Speaker 1: weeks ago in New York. I think I texted with

967
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 1: you even maybe then about potentially starting to do the podcast.

968
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: But I walked around there there at one World Trade

969
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 1: Center I think is the name of the of the building.

970
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 1: They have an incredible set up there and for people

971
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: who aren't familiar with his own they've really kind of

972
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,160
Speaker 1: gone in on boxing, but they have a daily wrap

973
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:59,239
Speaker 1: around show surrounding Major League Baseball. Now they are a

974
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 1: digital exclusive, and obviously they've been successful big investment Lynn Buldotnik,

975
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:07,160
Speaker 1: who's a multi billionaire. They've been successful in building sports

976
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:10,719
Speaker 1: universes in other countries. Do you buy in that there

977
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: can basically be a Netflix of sports in America? Or

978
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:18,319
Speaker 1: do you not like that business pitch? Look, you've got

979
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: John Skipper from ESPN. He certainly knows this business very well. Um,

980
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:27,240
Speaker 1: you know you've got you've assembled. Capital is the biggest

981
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,440
Speaker 1: constraint right in terms of acquiring sports rights. You need

982
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,440
Speaker 1: lots of money and and it will have to lose

983
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 1: a lot of money potentially for a while until you

984
00:49:34,960 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: eventually hit profitability. So I look, I wouldn't even want

985
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:40,879
Speaker 1: to begin to comment on how long it would take

986
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 1: the Zone to break even or make money, because I

987
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 1: think they're just in the very early stages of investing

988
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:49,800
Speaker 1: in in very expensive sports rights and building out their brand.

989
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 1: That said, you know, you just saw an announcement. I

990
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 1: think it was last Friday. I want to say, Comcast

991
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: announced that as they launched this broadband only set top

992
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: box that they're giving away to all of their seven

993
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:03,279
Speaker 1: eight million brought you know, broadband household. So if any

994
00:50:03,320 --> 00:50:06,359
Speaker 1: of your listeners have broadband only from Comcast meeting, they

995
00:50:06,360 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 1: don't take a cable package, they can get a free

996
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 1: set top box from Comcast now. And the Zone is

997
00:50:11,000 --> 00:50:14,320
Speaker 1: one of the channels that they're going to get UM

998
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: on that set top box. And so the Zone distribution

999
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: is certainly improving. I still don't think it's a household name.

1000
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: You know, for for many people. I think that's going

1001
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 1: to be the challenges. How do they make it a

1002
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: household name? And it's gonna be by acquiring more high

1003
00:50:26,640 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 1: profile sports rights. There's certainly an opportunity, but I still think,

1004
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,880
Speaker 1: you know the how you actually monetize this and can

1005
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 1: you get people to pay enough money again, not just

1006
00:50:35,800 --> 00:50:38,439
Speaker 1: for a month play, but pay for the entire year.

1007
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 1: The the that on off that you talked about earlier

1008
00:50:41,120 --> 00:50:44,480
Speaker 1: in the podcast. That's what really worries me. Nobody ever

1009
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: called up Comcast to cancel because it was like torture,

1010
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: Like nobody wanted to wait on hold for hours. Even

1011
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 1: if you got to a representative, they convinced you, why

1012
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:55,040
Speaker 1: with a discount you should stay for a few more months?

1013
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 1: Like that process was so painful. Now canceling any of

1014
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: these services, I mean, you can ancel Netflix in faster

1015
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 1: than I can say cancel Netflix. Be sure to catch

1016
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 1: live editions about Kicked the coverage with Clay Travis week

1017
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: days at six am Eastern, three am Pacific. It's amazing,

1018
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 1: all right, the big Battle. I I have some people

1019
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,000
Speaker 1: probably who are listening to us right now. I'm Clay Travis.

1020
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 1: He is Rich Greenfield. Uh, and Uh, A lot of

1021
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:21,239
Speaker 1: people I met who are listening to us right now

1022
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 1: may have heard you on the Business Wars podcast discussing

1023
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 1: Netflix versus Blockbuster. Uh, fantastic. I believe it was Business Wars, right. Uh.

1024
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:32,759
Speaker 1: I listened to that on a long drive. It's fantastic.

1025
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,439
Speaker 1: The new business war that is out there is going

1026
00:51:35,480 --> 00:51:40,400
Speaker 1: to be Netflix against Disney Plus, against Warner Media whatever

1027
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 1: they're launching, Apple, whatever they are launching. How does this

1028
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:47,160
Speaker 1: all shake out? What do you see on the horizon

1029
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: as these major media the viathans sort of square off

1030
00:51:51,680 --> 00:52:02,320
Speaker 1: against each other. You know, the reality is the consumer

1031
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 1: is really being empowered. You know, we were talking about

1032
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:08,480
Speaker 1: the bundle at the beginning, where you really had no choice.

1033
00:52:08,520 --> 00:52:11,439
Speaker 1: Now you've got all of these amazing companies coming out

1034
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 1: with content, each of them trying in many ways to

1035
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: underprice each other, and many of them are doing it

1036
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,600
Speaker 1: because it's very early. Like I don't think the long

1037
00:52:19,719 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 1: term price of Disney Plus is five ninety nine. My

1038
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,320
Speaker 1: gut is Apple TV Plus long term is not free

1039
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 1: for you know, every Apple device buyer. But I think

1040
00:52:29,160 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 1: as you think about the long term, um, this is

1041
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:34,520
Speaker 1: so great for the consumer because you're getting lots of content.

1042
00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 1: You have choice for the first time in your life.

1043
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 1: You have choice of what you pay for, how much

1044
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 1: you pay for it, how long you subscribe for. And

1045
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 1: you're getting an incredible array of content. And you don't

1046
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 1: have to be home to watch a show at a

1047
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:50,120
Speaker 1: given moment in time. You watch it on your own schedule,

1048
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 1: whether it's at home, if you want to hit pause

1049
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:54,919
Speaker 1: and pick it up tomorrow. It remembers where you left off.

1050
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 1: Like technology is really the friend of the consumer, Like

1051
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 1: every consumer is going to benefit from what's happening across

1052
00:53:02,480 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 1: all of these companies. And I think you know the

1053
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 1: real question is is I worry less about Netflix versus Disney,

1054
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: or Netflix versus Amazon, or Netflix versus Apple TV, Plus

1055
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 1: I worry more as you look at all of these services,

1056
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 1: how many of those ninety million homes still need the

1057
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,719
Speaker 1: big bundle? How many of your listeners are going to

1058
00:53:20,800 --> 00:53:23,800
Speaker 1: cut the chord this year? My guess is the faster

1059
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: all of this happens, meaning the more services they have

1060
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: offered at low pricing with all of these features, the

1061
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:31,879
Speaker 1: faster they say, you know what, I don't need this

1062
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:36,640
Speaker 1: this bundle from Charter or from Direct TV anymore. And

1063
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 1: they're just saying goodbye. And that's the real I worry

1064
00:53:40,200 --> 00:53:43,359
Speaker 1: far more about that change than I worry about all

1065
00:53:43,400 --> 00:53:46,000
Speaker 1: of these services being successful in and of themselves. Of

1066
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 1: Course Disney is going to be successful. Of course Apple

1067
00:53:48,080 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 1: is going to be successful, and people are gonna level

1068
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: of these new services, which the legacy bundle that's going

1069
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 1: to be really threatened. When do we reach and this

1070
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 1: is a big question, but read Hastings again at Netflix

1071
00:53:59,360 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 1: has said that he didn't really ever see himself back

1072
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 1: in the day completing competing with HBO. He thought he

1073
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 1: was competing with sleep. For a long time. Media consumption

1074
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:13,160
Speaker 1: has grown because people have found more times, like you

1075
00:54:13,200 --> 00:54:15,839
Speaker 1: can put every show on your phone. So if I'm

1076
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:19,080
Speaker 1: riding a bus, I consider watch a show, right, I

1077
00:54:19,080 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 1: can listen to a podcast as many people would be

1078
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 1: doing as they go about things that are doing they're

1079
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:27,720
Speaker 1: doing throughout their day. But at some point, as humans,

1080
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: we reach peak media consumption and we can't consume anymore

1081
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: unless technologically suddenly we only need three hours of sleep

1082
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:38,239
Speaker 1: or something like that. Right, maybe that's gonna come down

1083
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 1: the line and it will free up more time in

1084
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 1: our day. But do you think we've officially reached basically

1085
00:54:43,719 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 1: peak media consumption, where the phone allowed the pie to grow, right,

1086
00:54:47,719 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 1: Because the phone went with us, it allowed us to

1087
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,839
Speaker 1: consume more in many different ways. Is there that next

1088
00:54:52,880 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 1: technological leap? If so, where would it come from? Or

1089
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:59,960
Speaker 1: have we theoretically reached the point where everyone is competing

1090
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: basically with sleep. We can't create more time because everybody,

1091
00:55:04,160 --> 00:55:06,959
Speaker 1: even if you're like a superhuman, needs to sleep five

1092
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 1: six seven hours a night at least. That's a it's

1093
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 1: a big question, right, but but it is. It is.

1094
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:21,919
Speaker 1: You can't grow the pie anymore. Like if I want

1095
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:24,840
Speaker 1: people to listen to this podcast, I have to convince

1096
00:55:24,880 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: them that this podcast is better than something else, by

1097
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 1: and large, because I feel like now everybody is competing

1098
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,839
Speaker 1: all the time with everybody, and maybe a big hit

1099
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 1: of that has been legacy, but it's it's a fascinating

1100
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 1: I am, but I'm but I'm sitting in an office

1101
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: in Manhattan and I'm staring out down at the street

1102
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 1: and I see people walking. Before, Yeah, maybe they could

1103
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 1: pick it up and make a phone call, but now

1104
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,320
Speaker 1: they can stick their air pods in while they're literally

1105
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:52,279
Speaker 1: typing on their phone and they can listen to Clay

1106
00:55:52,280 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 1: Travis's podcast, like, the ability to fill white space in

1107
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:01,840
Speaker 1: your day with media exposure is growing, and so, you know,

1108
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 1: I don't know where that peaks out. I mean, I

1109
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 1: think it's certainly growing. I think we're you know, while

1110
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:09,479
Speaker 1: you're watching less linear TV, you're watching more video every

1111
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:12,799
Speaker 1: day than ever before, and so, um, I think there's

1112
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:16,400
Speaker 1: still growth potential, you know, in those overall numbers. I mean,

1113
00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:20,040
Speaker 1: you know, the reality is the challenges is that you're

1114
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:24,400
Speaker 1: you're fighting not just video consumption time. You're fighting whether

1115
00:56:24,480 --> 00:56:29,080
Speaker 1: it's you know, making TikTok's, whether it's snapping friends, whether

1116
00:56:29,120 --> 00:56:31,759
Speaker 1: it's watching people play video games or playing video games.

1117
00:56:32,000 --> 00:56:34,280
Speaker 1: The competition for your time has never been more intense.

1118
00:56:34,320 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: But I think overall time spent with media is going

1119
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 1: to keep growing because the experience that you're getting on

1120
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 1: these devices is better and better and you can do more.

1121
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean, every version of the iPhone allows you to

1122
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 1: do more than the last one. Faster, longer, battery life.

1123
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:51,759
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, more of these services are letting

1124
00:56:51,800 --> 00:56:54,279
Speaker 1: you downloads. I mean, you know, how many years ago

1125
00:56:54,280 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 1: did you get on a plane and you were stuck

1126
00:56:55,600 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: watching whatever was on the back of the plane screening

1127
00:56:58,200 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 1: on the t vs if there even was a TV,

1128
00:56:59,880 --> 00:57:02,000
Speaker 1: or they were giving you a DVD player to watch

1129
00:57:02,280 --> 00:57:06,800
Speaker 1: if anything. Now literally you can download, you know, entire

1130
00:57:06,880 --> 00:57:09,640
Speaker 1: season of Fauda or Ozarks and watch it on a plane.

1131
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:12,960
Speaker 1: And everything on Disney Plus is going to be offline downloadable.

1132
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 1: Spotify lets you download everything and so you can listen

1133
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: to it when you don't have access to the Internet.

1134
00:57:17,720 --> 00:57:21,040
Speaker 1: And so I think that the experience of how much

1135
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 1: time you can spend with media is going to keep growing.

1136
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:26,200
Speaker 1: Obviously there's a limit when you think about sleep, but

1137
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 1: I still think there's a lot of room to go

1138
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,920
Speaker 1: as these services create and create not just more content,

1139
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 1: but also figure out what you want to watch. I mean,

1140
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:36,760
Speaker 1: I think the greatest problem in the podcast space right

1141
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: now is knowing what great podcasts are out there. I mean,

1142
00:57:39,320 --> 00:57:41,920
Speaker 1: right now, it's more word of mouth than anything else.

1143
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 1: Finding content to watch or listen to is still the

1144
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: number one challenge that everyone's trying to solve. Would you

1145
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 1: a couple of questions for you can? I know you're busy,

1146
00:57:50,960 --> 00:57:54,360
Speaker 1: I want to finish with these. Would you buy a

1147
00:57:54,360 --> 00:57:58,360
Speaker 1: a pro sports franchise in one of the traditional linear

1148
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 1: leagues right now NFL, n b A, UH, NHL or

1149
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:07,120
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball or do you think the massive skyrocketing

1150
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 1: valuation we have seen in those franchises over let's say

1151
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 1: the last twenty five years has basically plateaued. Do you

1152
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 1: think those are good places? Let's pretend that you were

1153
00:58:16,720 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: a billionaire. Are those good places to stash your money?

1154
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:25,840
Speaker 1: With NFL rights likely to double from current levels because

1155
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: they're more important than ever before. I think owning an

1156
00:58:28,840 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 1: NFL team, there's probably no better decision you could make,

1157
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,680
Speaker 1: uh than owning an NFL team Heading into the next

1158
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:40,640
Speaker 1: round of negotiations with UM broadcasters and cable networks, you know,

1159
00:58:40,680 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 1: when you get into you know, things like baseball UM,

1160
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,160
Speaker 1: you know, I think you have to be uh, you know,

1161
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:51,440
Speaker 1: much more price conscious as you're thinking about it, because

1162
00:58:51,480 --> 00:58:54,800
Speaker 1: there's real headwinds. You know, the regional sports network model

1163
00:58:55,400 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: is under attack. I mean, Charlie Oregon Dish Network hasn't

1164
00:58:59,040 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 1: had the former Fox rsns haven't been on the air

1165
00:59:03,480 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 1: and I think sixty days now, So the pressure on

1166
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 1: these regional sports networks is growing. I think it's part

1167
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:14,240
Speaker 1: of the reason why Rupert Murdoch was was happy to

1168
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:16,680
Speaker 1: get rid of them um when he sold a lot

1169
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 1: of his company to Disney, And so, you know, I

1170
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 1: think sports like baseball, I'm a lot less certain about

1171
00:59:23,600 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 1: kind of anybody can make money. I think on the

1172
00:59:26,320 --> 00:59:28,640
Speaker 1: football side, there's still you know, I think football is

1173
00:59:28,640 --> 00:59:30,720
Speaker 1: in a very good position, but they've also got the

1174
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 1: most you know, forget about ratings being up a little

1175
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 1: bit so far this season versus down a little bit.

1176
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 1: The reality is the ratings are still enormous. There's still

1177
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:41,320
Speaker 1: only seventeen weeks of a season. I mean, this is

1178
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 1: still an enormous product that has tremendous value that someone's

1179
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 1: going to keep paying for. Um. I think the other

1180
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 1: sports that have a lot more content where you know,

1181
00:59:50,680 --> 00:59:53,919
Speaker 1: viewership is far more challenging. Where the economic model, meaning

1182
00:59:53,920 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: the regional sports network model is challenged, That's where I

1183
00:59:56,640 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 1: think it starts to get much trickier in terms of

1184
00:59:58,840 --> 01:00:01,640
Speaker 1: saying closure rising you would just buy any team that's

1185
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 1: That's a lot of harder decision. Do you think long

1186
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:09,040
Speaker 1: range the Rupert Murdoch decision to sell his assets to

1187
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:14,200
Speaker 1: Disney will be a good or bad one? There is

1188
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 1: no given the disruption moving from a model where everybody

1189
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:20,400
Speaker 1: pays for everything whether they watch it or not, to

1190
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 1: a model you pay for what you want to consume.

1191
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: That is going to be so disruptive and so painful

1192
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:30,680
Speaker 1: for the whole industry. People like Rupert Murdoch for Fox,

1193
01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 1: Jeff Bukas Time, Warner, um Ken, Low Scripts. I think

1194
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 1: those are going to be the people that you look

1195
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: at and say they were the smartest people in the room.

1196
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,040
Speaker 1: They knew when to exit, they knew when you know, essentially,

1197
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 1: maybe they were a little past peak, but you know

1198
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 1: close enough where getting out and knowing when to sell

1199
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:50,400
Speaker 1: is one of the most important skills in business. And

1200
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 1: I think they did an incredible job all right. Of

1201
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 1: the major media companies that are out there right now,

1202
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,040
Speaker 1: you just mentioned a T and T, which is bought

1203
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 1: a Warner Media. We've talked Netflix, We've talked Disney, We've

1204
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: talked UH Apple. Who would you buy stock in right now? Like,

1205
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:08,840
Speaker 1: who do you think has the best future? And I'll

1206
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:10,680
Speaker 1: just give you a pre lamb. I owned stock for

1207
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 1: people out there in Amazon, I owned stock in Netflix,

1208
01:01:14,120 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 1: I owned stock some in Fox, uh and I own

1209
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 1: a lot of sports gambling companies that I bought. I'm

1210
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 1: gonna I'm gonna be brutally honest. We we at Light shied,

1211
01:01:23,120 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 1: we're we're two weeks post launched. We haven't put ratings

1212
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:27,919
Speaker 1: on any companies yet, so you'll have to stay tuned

1213
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 1: on specific ratings. I'd say though, thematically, when you look

1214
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 1: at the world of digital and you look at what's

1215
01:01:33,520 --> 01:01:37,840
Speaker 1: going on with companies like Twitter in an election year,

1216
01:01:37,920 --> 01:01:41,160
Speaker 1: Snapchat starting to grow again and you know, really accelerate.

1217
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 1: When you look at you know, everyone was so worried

1218
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:46,240
Speaker 1: about Facebook from a regulatory standpoint, and you know, try

1219
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:49,680
Speaker 1: to find someone who has changed their Instagram usage if

1220
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 1: anything's growing, but no one stopped using Instagram because of

1221
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 1: all the regulatory attacks on Facebook, And so I think

1222
01:01:55,520 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 1: the digital world offers far more attractive growth potential than

1223
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,080
Speaker 1: the legacy media world. I think, you know, this transition

1224
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 1: is going to be very messy, and even if you

1225
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:09,320
Speaker 1: believe Disney's best positioned because of their great content, everything

1226
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 1: we just talked about over the last hour, this is

1227
01:02:11,600 --> 01:02:14,960
Speaker 1: hard stuff and a place where none of these companies

1228
01:02:15,000 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 1: has expertise, meaning technology, direct to consumer marketing. All of

1229
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,920
Speaker 1: this is new for all of these companies, and I

1230
01:02:21,960 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a really tough next few

1231
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 1: years for all of these companies that try to make

1232
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 1: this pivot. When I used to do UH legal proceedings,

1233
01:02:30,240 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 1: I would always end a deposition or a question with

1234
01:02:32,480 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 1: somebody that I really thought was smarter than me about

1235
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: things by saying, what was I not smart enough to

1236
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:40,200
Speaker 1: ask you that you wish that I had? Is there

1237
01:02:40,200 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 1: anything that you would like to say to our audience

1238
01:02:42,680 --> 01:02:45,479
Speaker 1: or discussed to finish up here that I wasn't smart

1239
01:02:45,600 --> 01:02:49,520
Speaker 1: enough to direct you to be able to talk about? Look,

1240
01:02:49,560 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 1: you have a massive audience play that's highly engaged. From

1241
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: talking to you on on past shows, I'm really curious

1242
01:02:56,840 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 1: what your audience thinks, like, how do they think about

1243
01:02:59,840 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 1: you know, are they cutting the cord? How they cut

1244
01:03:02,200 --> 01:03:04,680
Speaker 1: the cord? Are they gonna cut the cord? You know?

1245
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:07,800
Speaker 1: Are they do they like the fact that they have

1246
01:03:07,880 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 1: to subscribe to all of these services? You know? Is

1247
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 1: it easier to stay in a bundle? Uh? The other

1248
01:03:13,000 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 1: question I'm really fascinated about and is a major topic.

1249
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:19,040
Speaker 1: Should shows come out week to week like Game of

1250
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:21,920
Speaker 1: Thrones did or This is Us? Or does your audience

1251
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,240
Speaker 1: prefer it coming out all at once like it does

1252
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:27,720
Speaker 1: on Netflix or Amazon. There's a huge debate in media circles.

1253
01:03:27,760 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 1: Disney with Disney Plus is going to roll out shows

1254
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,880
Speaker 1: week to week. I think consumers don't really like that,

1255
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:34,960
Speaker 1: and they like being in full control of when they watch.

1256
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,680
Speaker 1: But I'd be curious what your audience thinks to these questions.

1257
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 1: I'll put up a poll there for you as soon

1258
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:41,480
Speaker 1: as I finished the show. I'll tag you in it

1259
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:43,960
Speaker 1: as well, and I'll let people respond on social media.

1260
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 1: Here's one that I do think you'll be interested in.

1261
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw this, but I put

1262
01:03:47,120 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 1: it up yesterday. How do you watch sports on cable

1263
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:53,160
Speaker 1: slash satellite? Right? So, how do you watch ESPN F

1264
01:03:53,240 --> 01:03:56,400
Speaker 1: S one, T N T. However, you're watching cable satellite

1265
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 1: fifty pcent. I got thirty three thousand votes, so that's

1266
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 1: a pretty good size audience. Fifty three percent of people

1267
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:06,000
Speaker 1: said they still watch from a traditional cable or satellite subscription.

1268
01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:10,760
Speaker 1: Thirty percent said they were online streaming subscribers, eight percent

1269
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:15,840
Speaker 1: said they watch illegal pirated streams online. Nine percent said

1270
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:19,600
Speaker 1: they use parents and friends passwords in order to log in.

1271
01:04:19,840 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 1: I thought that was pretty fascinating data. Again, not sure

1272
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,560
Speaker 1: how accurate it is for the country, but that was

1273
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:29,680
Speaker 1: what my audience said. Look, you've got to really engage

1274
01:04:29,680 --> 01:04:32,320
Speaker 1: sports audience, so I think what they say is interesting

1275
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:34,880
Speaker 1: to me. For sure, I appreciate the time. I know

1276
01:04:34,920 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 1: how busy you are. I love doing these conversations. I

1277
01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 1: always learn a lot and uh I would again encourage

1278
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:43,000
Speaker 1: everybody to go follow Rich Greenfield answer some of his questions.

1279
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Speaker 1: I'll tag him you can, you can go tell him

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Speaker 1: what you think. He is a fascinating follow, a smart

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Speaker 1: man to read and pay attention to appreciate the time. Man,

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Speaker 1: you're awesome play. Thanks so much for having me. Let's

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Speaker 1: do it again. For sure. That's Rich Greenfield. He is

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Speaker 1: now at Lightshed Partners at rich Lightshed. He's outstanding. I

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Speaker 1: am Clay Travis. You can follow me Clay Travis. You

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Speaker 1: enjoyed this conversation, Subscribe to the podcast Wins and Losses Weekly.

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Speaker 1: It's out there trying to make you smarter, entertain you,

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Speaker 1: and have long form conversations you can't find elsewhere. That's

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Speaker 1: what we do here on the Wins and Losses podcast. Again,

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Speaker 1: I'm Clay Travis. Go radius, give us five stars. Appreciate

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Speaker 1: all of you. This has been Wins and Losses