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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast, PODYA all.

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Speaker 2: Right, here we go fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 2: forty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Five fifty and the kicks Block Look College Football World Standard.

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Speaker 2: Bye.

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Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, he's stumbled and football the lateral turn,

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Speaker 1: the corner on the inside, get you to leave, not

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Speaker 1: tap them up the field to night. It's not the

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Speaker 1: side of the dog in the fight. It's the side

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Speaker 1: of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 2: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 2: week thirteen college football betting for you. I'm Stucky in

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Speaker 2: joining me as always as my BBOC Coast Colin Wilson

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Speaker 2: con it's going to be back. I was put on

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Speaker 2: concussion protocol because I was so sick that I was

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Speaker 2: told to take the day off. It was my first

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Speaker 2: first part I've ever missed and which is a which

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Speaker 2: I was appreciative. Because we have been in a cram

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Speaker 2: session for two days. We're going to have and also

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Speaker 2: our NFL Action Howork podcast, Well I'll be doing that

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Speaker 2: after this. So the last two days have been pretty wild.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you've been in full cram session as well.

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Speaker 2: It's the last regular season weekend and it's a good one.

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Speaker 2: It's kind of bittersweet that it's the last one, but

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Speaker 2: this is one of my favorites. It's motivational weekend into

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Speaker 2: bowl season. There's so much good football to be played.

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Speaker 2: You excited for this weekend?

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Speaker 1: I'm excited for so many things. First off, this weekend,

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Speaker 1: I'm excited for two things. One kind of step away

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Speaker 1: from the numbers a little bit and play more is

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Speaker 1: towards situational spots. You got teams trying to get into

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Speaker 1: a bowl, teams that can't, teams that don't care that

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Speaker 1: they're already placed. Plus personally, this is it. Razorbacks. Have

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Speaker 1: one more game, put this team to bed, live with

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Speaker 1: the fact that we're living with Sam Pittman, and move on.

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Speaker 1: Enough of this damn drama. I am so ready to

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Speaker 1: put this Razorback football season behind me, move on to

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Speaker 1: something more exciting, like must lose into UNC Greensboro. But

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Speaker 1: I'm ready for college football Railars season to come to

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Speaker 1: an end. Big slate, I'm excited.

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Speaker 2: I play a ton of situational spots and angles here

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Speaker 2: for where teams have with five wins that there's twenty

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Speaker 2: four of them buying foot Bowl eligibility. They've hitted about

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Speaker 2: like a when they're playing teams all that don't have

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Speaker 2: five wins, So when it's not a matchup of two

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Speaker 2: to five win teams, they've hitted about a fifty three

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Speaker 2: percent clip historically this week. But keep in mind that's

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Speaker 2: against the clothes. A lot of times these teams get bad,

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Speaker 2: so you know, if you were able to get in earlier,

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Speaker 2: that percentage is even better. And I wouldn't advise blindly

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Speaker 2: betting them. There's nuance to each of the matchups, so

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Speaker 2: it's definitely just a factor to consider and we'll touch

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Speaker 2: on some of those angles today. But first I also

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Speaker 2: just want to wish everyone a happy Thanksgiving. We're thankful

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Speaker 2: for each and every one of you for listening and

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Speaker 2: supporting the podcast.

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Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving Gamblers, We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 2: Particular shout out to our voicemail callers nine to five

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Speaker 2: non Bad Meat. If you're watching on YouTube, make sure

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Speaker 2: you get subscribing like but we're thankful for all of you.

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Speaker 2: It's always a great week while spending time with family,

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Speaker 2: eating good Do you have any clients.

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Speaker 1: Back in Arkansas, got all my family around me, short drive.

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Speaker 1: Actually gonna enjoy not having to have a two to

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Speaker 1: three hour car ride from the state of Oklahoma to Arkansas,

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Speaker 1: and enjoy some ag bowl and see the family and

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Speaker 1: take it easy before Bowl season absolutely dominates our lives

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Speaker 1: for about four weeks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll have my normal Thanksgiving routine. My wife, who

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Speaker 2: cooked up a storm, cooked for like twenty people in

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Speaker 2: a friends giving on Sunday, has to do it. It's

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Speaker 2: going to do it all over again Wednesday night. For

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Speaker 2: she was cooked for like twenty four hours. She's gonna

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Speaker 2: do it all again. Her parents host Thanksgiving. My in

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Speaker 2: laws live really close by, so I'll make an appearance there,

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Speaker 2: say hi, and then I'm back to my house. My

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Speaker 2: wife will make me an extra duck and I will

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Speaker 2: sit on the couch watch the egg bowl and I

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Speaker 2: will have a duck carcass and just eat it like

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Speaker 2: a cave man on the couch. And it's one of

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Speaker 2: my favorite activities of the year. But let's get right

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Speaker 2: into it. Well before we get to the Marquee matchups,

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Speaker 2: which features the game between Ohio State and Michigan, let's

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Speaker 2: still a little look ahead or look.

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Speaker 1: Away hangovers, sleepers, and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 1: time to look ahead or look a.

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Speaker 2: This is where we look at the schedule, last week's schedule,

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Speaker 2: the upcoming schedule to see if there are any angles

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Speaker 2: to consider for certain teams in regards to motivation, whether

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Speaker 2: they sit starters. So let's start in conference to USA with.

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Speaker 2: We already know the matchup, so it's gonna be Liberty

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Speaker 2: versus New Mexico State. Liberty will first head to UTEP.

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Speaker 2: They are seventeen point favorites. You know this game, it

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Speaker 2: doesn't really mean anything, but Liberty is undefeated, so they

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Speaker 2: do have the motivation to stay undefeated on the year.

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Speaker 2: I don't have any good feel there. I do have

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Speaker 2: a strong feeling on the other game. Jacksonville State will

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Speaker 2: travel to New Mexico State. Shock or love Jacksonville State. Here,

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Speaker 2: I've got to give a ton of credit to Mexico State.

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Speaker 2: They pantsed us last week. A couple of things that

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Speaker 2: I got wrong there. I thought that they were gonna

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Speaker 2: sit starters. Mexico State clearly didn't and clearly came out

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Speaker 2: with a purpose. They didn't just win that game, they

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Speaker 2: dominated Auburn and then for me, some of the things. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: some of the things that I have heard from people

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Speaker 2: close to the Auburn program is like they didn't they

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Speaker 2: were just completely looking ahead at Alabama. They didn't even

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Speaker 2: like prepare for the game week.

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Speaker 1: Hugh Frees spent a whole week recruiting.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, and it looked like it. I mean, Auburn

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Speaker 2: looked like they didn't know. They never saw the New

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Speaker 2: Mexico's State offense on film in their life. So there's

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Speaker 2: a couple of angles here New Mexico State. From Jerry

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Speaker 2: Kill's a Jerry Kill's presser, it seemed like he could

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Speaker 2: sit Pobby this week. So I'm not banking on that,

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Speaker 2: but that's they could sit starters. This is also a

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Speaker 2: massive letdown spot. You just won at Auburn. You have

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Speaker 2: a short week coming up where you have to go

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Speaker 2: across country to face Liberty in the Conference US State Champimpionship.

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Speaker 2: But this is more about Jacksonville State, So you have

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Speaker 2: to let avert in Mexico State. They might hit starters

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville State. Both these teams have been covering monsters. They're

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Speaker 2: one of six teams in the country that only have

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Speaker 2: two non covers. But Jacksonville State. This is their super bowl.

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Speaker 2: They believe that this game should be for a berth

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Speaker 2: in the conference championship, but their waiver was denied. You know,

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Speaker 2: if there wasn't this archaic NCAA rule, both of these

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Speaker 2: teams have had the same record in conference, the winner

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Speaker 2: of this game would go play Liberty in the conference championship.

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Speaker 2: So Jacksonville State they they're not even guaranteed of a bowl.

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Speaker 2: This could be their final game of the season. This

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Speaker 2: is They're going to be jacked up to play this game.

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Speaker 2: New Mexico State, as I mentioned, might shit starters, big

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Speaker 2: letdown after that Auburn game. That Jacksonville State defense so underrated.

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Speaker 2: I mean some of the metrics that they have, even

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Speaker 2: though they're undersized in the defensive line, like top ten

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Speaker 2: in line yards. Their defense I think is the best

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Speaker 2: unit on the field here. But this is just one

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Speaker 2: of the best situational angles of the weekend. Mexico State

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Speaker 2: off that big win game doesn't mean anything to them.

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Speaker 2: Short week travel across country for the Conference USA championship.

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Speaker 2: Might sitt starters give me the game? Cocks here they

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Speaker 2: got hit. I was waiting to see it. A three

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Speaker 2: popped that that was not coming and they got demolished

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Speaker 2: in the market today, I like anything under a field

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Speaker 2: goal here. No real feel on Liberty and our minor

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Speaker 2: nation boys. Do you have anything to add on either

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Speaker 2: one of these Conference USA matchups?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Jacksonville State is definitely the play. I think we

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Speaker 1: have to give a boundary on all these numbers because

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Speaker 1: if people are listening on Friday, it's you know, I mean,

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Speaker 1: if Diego gets announced out for this game, it's going

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Speaker 1: to give it another pump of money here. But I

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Speaker 1: agree with you on Jacksonville State everything you said. I

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Speaker 1: don't think there's a better situational spot on the board

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Speaker 1: than Jacksonville State playing in their super Bowl. They believe

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Speaker 1: they are the true champions of conference and they want

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Speaker 1: to prove it here in this game. I think what

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Speaker 1: you're looking at if you haven't watched eight of these

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Speaker 1: two teams play, you're looking at two teams that are

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Speaker 1: both heavy on the ground, but two completely different paces

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Speaker 1: of play. Rich Rod wants to go as fast as

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Speaker 1: he can. It's a completely different story with Jerry kill.

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Speaker 1: I don't see a ton of explosives in the head

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Speaker 1: to head matchups about what these two teams can do

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Speaker 1: on the ground, but New Mexico State has severe success

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Speaker 1: rate issues against inside zone. They give up too many

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Speaker 1: first downs, they don't have enough negative plays. They do

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Speaker 1: give up explosives to counter two, which is some of

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Speaker 1: the Jacksonville State runs a ton. So that as far

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Speaker 1: as the ground situation, which both these teams run all

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Speaker 1: the time, Jacksonville State is the one that's better prepared

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Speaker 1: with the offense against the defense are going up against.

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Speaker 1: I love Jacksonville State. I agree with you. I'd stop

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Speaker 1: buying it two and a half. Maybe I'd throw a

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Speaker 1: little bit of money on three.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just look, I mean jackson Both these teams have

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Speaker 2: a really easy schedules. They're in conforence to USA. Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: State is a slightly tougher schedule. And just to compare

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Speaker 2: these defenses, jacks Will Stay eighth and success rate third

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Speaker 2: and defensive line yards thirteenth in yards per play allowed.

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Speaker 2: Mexico State eighty first, eighty second, and seventy third in

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Speaker 2: those categories. And you mentioned it, jax will State one

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Speaker 2: of the heaviest rush teams in the country. Mexico State

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Speaker 2: ninety seventh and rushed success rate allowed. I think Jacksonville

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Speaker 2: State leve no trouble moving the ball here and let me.

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Speaker 1: Look back on utub. Can I love back on Utube

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Speaker 1: and Liberty real quick?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean Liberty, who's also playing in the Conference USA game.

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Speaker 1: Chadwell just had we're recording this on Tuesday. Chedwell just

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Speaker 1: had his presser and he was talking about how there's

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Speaker 1: just no fire in this team in the second half.

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Speaker 1: That's what showed up this past weekend. And I think

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Speaker 1: when you want to take these big long dogs against

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Speaker 1: these teams that have look ahead like we have utup

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Speaker 1: against hosting Liberty here, can uteb stand up and do something?

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Speaker 1: Do they have the fire? Do they want to do it?

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Speaker 1: So I went back to demml you look at him

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, and this exactly same spot couldn't

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Speaker 1: make a bowl first two years at UTEP they lost

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Speaker 1: thirty to sixteen and to Rice and then thirty nine

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Speaker 1: to seven to Southern MYSTHS in both of those two years.

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Speaker 1: It was just a complete disaster. But Chadwell in the

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Speaker 1: spot just had a really bad spot. Last year, Coastal

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Speaker 1: had locked up the Sunbelt bid. They played James Madison

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Speaker 1: and the season ender didn't need to play the game whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: James Madison blew them out forty seven to fourteen. Now,

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Speaker 1: James Madison was heavily amped for that game, considering they

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Speaker 1: couldn't go to a bowl. But you know, Liberty failed

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Speaker 1: to cover against UMass in Week twelve. A lot of

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Speaker 1: that had to deal with the second half. I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: be shocked at all. I'm tweeting here on UTEP because

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Speaker 1: I think Liberty probably gives you a little bit of

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Speaker 1: effort in the first quarter and then they're done. They

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Speaker 1: could care less about this point spread. They want to win.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna move on keep it undefeated. Either a live

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Speaker 1: bet on UTEP or a UTEP second half play is

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Speaker 1: in scope.

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Speaker 2: Let's go to the Great Northwest to the Apple Cup

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Speaker 2: where Washington will host Washington State. Spread the sixteen and

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Speaker 2: a half point favored here, as the Huskies look to

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Speaker 2: maintain their undefeated record control their own destiny. They will

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Speaker 2: be in the Pack twelve championship. They clinched that last week.

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Speaker 2: Although for our Oregon State that pretty ugly. Washington what

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Speaker 2: thirty percent postgame win probability. They've benefited from Oregon State

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Speaker 2: missing three four downs negative to turnover margin and then

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Speaker 2: a safety on a snap over there, which ultimately was

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Speaker 2: the difference. So don't really think they deserve to win

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Speaker 2: that game. But they did pull through, as they've done

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Speaker 2: for about a month and a half now. It hasn't

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Speaker 2: been pretty. Washington State been very jeckle and hide all

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Speaker 2: season long. I this is a great spot. Look Washington

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Speaker 2: off that Oregon State win. They know they're going to

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Speaker 2: be in the Pack twelve championship, but they know they

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Speaker 2: have to stay defeated. This is their in state rival.

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Speaker 2: I just I don't know if I can get here

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Speaker 2: with Washington State. I saw you put it in, so

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Speaker 2: I'm curious to your case. But the two things that

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Speaker 2: I'm worried about. One, Washington's biggest weakness on defense is

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Speaker 2: their run day. Washington State doesn't run it at all,

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Speaker 2: like never, and when they do that, they don't run

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Speaker 2: it well. And then Washington State, they've had these weeks

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Speaker 2: where teams drop eight on them and the our offense

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Speaker 2: goes into a complete and utter shell. And that's kind

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Speaker 2: of Washington's m in a way. So they could employ

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Speaker 2: that here rather easily. So the spot is all Washington State.

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Speaker 2: But I'm worried about a couple of the matchup issues

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Speaker 2: on each side of the ball. What do you see

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Speaker 2: here with the koubs Well.

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Speaker 1: I was tweeting on this, I made it sixteen and

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Speaker 1: a half. I paused on Sunday on openers was seventeen.

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't have paused, So I took it at sixteen

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Speaker 1: and a half, and I think it's just going to

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Speaker 1: get pounded probably down to fourteen. There's a couple of

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Speaker 1: things in the numbers when you cross match these two teams.

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Speaker 1: I didn't see a huge advantage for Washington when they're

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball. I don't think Michael Pennocks is going

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Speaker 1: to get any resistance and what he wants to do

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Speaker 1: throwing the ball. Washington State's three three to five defense

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Speaker 1: goes cover three and cover one in penis. That's pretty

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Speaker 1: much his wheelhouse. So what we've seen from the offense

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Speaker 1: is what we're going to see from Washington here. The

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Speaker 1: question is is can cam Ward keep up? And I

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Speaker 1: would contend that if you go back and look at

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Speaker 1: the Washington State schedule, teams that are in the top

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Speaker 1: fifty in defensive havoc give cam warden all kinds of problems.

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Speaker 1: We're talking massive amounts of fumbles, massive amounts of turnover

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Speaker 1: worthy plays. Washington is not a havoc minded defense whatsoever,

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Speaker 1: extremely low rated and tackles for loss, passes, defense, fumbles,

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Speaker 1: creating fumbles, it just doesn't happen. That means cam Ward

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Speaker 1: is going to be able to do what he does,

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Speaker 1: which you know, fifty points up against Colorado that had

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Speaker 1: a lot of help there. But you know, Washington State

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Speaker 1: is above national average and success rate against quarters coverage,

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Speaker 1: which is all Washington runs. Washington has pretty good overall numbers.

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Speaker 1: Is a pass defense, but with quarters the only generate

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Speaker 1: a forty four percent success rate. Cam Ward's going to

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Speaker 1: be able to take advantage of that. He has the

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Speaker 1: entire year. If Washington can't cause any habit and get

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Speaker 1: in the backfield, cam Wore can keep up here. And

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Speaker 1: so I'm going to be back in Washington State. I

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Speaker 1: don't know when the stop prices at maybe fourteen, but

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Speaker 1: really it's a pretty easy formula with Washington State. If

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Speaker 1: cam Ward's not going to be harrassed, he's going to

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Speaker 1: be able to do his thing.

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Speaker 2: One more here, Georgia, who was really hit their stride?

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Speaker 2: I mean they were they dominated Tennessee. Carson Beck was

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Speaker 2: super impressive. A lot of wow, great throws in that game.

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Speaker 2: I really thought that he took the next step in

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Speaker 2: that game. In particular, they know the Bulldogs know that

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Speaker 2: they will face by the way that was in there

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Speaker 2: during this what twenty seven twenty eight game win Street,

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Speaker 2: that was the only game against a ranked opponent in

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Speaker 2: a true road environment. Georgie definitely had a beneficial schedule

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Speaker 2: during this stretch, but wow, they were not phased in

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Speaker 2: Knoxville before the SEC Championship with they'll take on Alabama,

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Speaker 2: they will head to Georgia Tech. Georgia twenty four point favorite.

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Speaker 2: This market is seems pretty just dead. I haven't seen

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Speaker 2: a lot of movement here or hurt a lot heard

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Speaker 2: really anything about anybody on either side here. Georgia Tech

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Speaker 2: one of the most explosive offenses in the country. But

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Speaker 2: that's really that's a really hard formula to live by

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Speaker 2: against this Georgia defense. Georgia Tech, I will say, is

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Speaker 2: very Jekyll and Hide like. If you look at their results,

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Speaker 2: it's which which Georgia Tech are you going to get?

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Speaker 2: Can they you know, put up A question is can

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Speaker 2: they put up enough points here to cover this number.

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Speaker 2: Get in the back door. What will George's mindset be?

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Speaker 2: What do you see here? I'm right around market, so

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Speaker 2: I don't have much.

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Speaker 1: I think the numbers too low. I have it at twenty.

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Speaker 1: But this isn't a regular game, right, I mean we're

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Speaker 1: right before the SEC Championship game, Kirby came out at

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Speaker 1: his presser and said, Brent Keys, an offensive line coach,

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Speaker 1: turned into a head coach. When that happens, you have

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Speaker 1: a physical game where everybody wants to establish the rush.

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Speaker 1: So it is kind of some things that I heard

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Speaker 1: against Tennessee, right, we want to control the line of scrimmage,

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Speaker 1: which they did on both sides of the ball. But

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Speaker 1: that offense was more Carson Beck passing than it was,

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Speaker 1: you know, dominating right in the ground game. So I

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Speaker 1: feel like I kind of fell for this before, even

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Speaker 1: though the game did clearly go under last week with Georgia,

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Speaker 1: I have a feeling mathematically I don't see it. I

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Speaker 1: have a feeling this game goes under two Georgia Tech.

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Speaker 1: I've said this all along. The way to gash the

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Speaker 1: Georgia defense is to run outside zone. Georgia Tech doesn't

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Speaker 1: run that at all. They run all inside zone. They

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Speaker 1: have a pretty average success rate, no real explosives, so

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Speaker 1: I don't expect them to get it done against Georgia whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: When you go to the other side of the ball,

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Speaker 1: you know there's just it just depends on what Georgia

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Speaker 1: wants to do. Do you think they're going to air

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Speaker 1: it out and go completely berserk on Georgia Tech with

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Speaker 1: there's no animosity between these two coaches, I say, absolutely not.

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Speaker 1: I think the number is way too high here. I

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Speaker 1: don't see Georgia lining up and going deep. I see

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Speaker 1: them just calling an abnormal amount of run plays here.

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Speaker 1: I think it's important too that I know Georgia Tech

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Speaker 1: they show up in these spots where they shouldn't and

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Speaker 1: they do these great performances, but they're outside the top

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Speaker 1: one hundred quality drives, lineyards and standard down success right there,

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteenth.

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Speaker 2: It's all explosive. I think they lead the country in explosiveness,

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Speaker 2: which is which you can't really rely on that against Georgia.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think that's going to work here. So

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Speaker 1: I have no money down. If I was going to

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Speaker 1: put money down to be under sixty.

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Speaker 2: All right before we get to the marquee matchup, says

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Speaker 2: the reminder of the BBOC podcast done by that MGM.

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00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:49,520
Speaker 2: The's bonus go to action when signing up to get

354
00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 2: up to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets

355
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 2: if your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana,

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00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:59,679
Speaker 2: i Weil, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee,

357
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:02,399
Speaker 2: virgin West, Virginia, Wyoming. Terms of conditions apply. Must be

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Speaker 2: twenty one or older. Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the marquee matchups of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 1: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 1: bedding for week thirteen.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's start on Friday in a big one

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Speaker 2: in the American, so the way that the American boils down.

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Speaker 2: If SMU, but hopefully some of you followed future there,

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Speaker 2: if they beat Navy, they are in and then they

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Speaker 2: will face the winner of UTSA two lane. If SMU

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Speaker 2: somehow loses to Navy, they're called eighteen eighteen and a

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Speaker 2: half point favorites. Then it would come down to a

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Speaker 2: computer composite tiebreaker between SMU and the loser of this

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Speaker 2: game to see who would go face. It's the winner

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Speaker 2: of UTSA Twulane. Tulane is a three and a half

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Speaker 2: point favorite. Here schemes at three thirty Eastern on Friday

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Speaker 2: at Tulane over under fifty one and a half. You know,

375
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Speaker 2: so when I look at Tulane this they can't run

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Speaker 2: the ball really, I mean just it's it's been a

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Speaker 2: struggle as far as efficiency is concerned. Their past defense

378
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Speaker 2: remains a bit vulnerable and those issues have showed up

379
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Speaker 2: over the past I want to say month or so.

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Speaker 2: I mean, look, they beat North Texas by seven, Rice

381
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Speaker 2: by two, East Carolina by three, Tulsa by two. Finally

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Speaker 2: they got margin last week against FAU. But this is

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Speaker 2: a team that's been just getting by by the skin

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Speaker 2: of its teeth UTSA. Meanwhile, Frank Harris fully healthy. Now.

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Speaker 2: He was absolutely dominant last week against South Florida through

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Speaker 2: for four eleven and three touchdowns, added another one to

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Speaker 2: twelve on the ground with three more touchdowns, and basically

388
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Speaker 2: sat the fourth quarter. He looks healthy. UTSA, it's playing

389
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Speaker 2: its best football of the season. What do you see

390
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Speaker 2: here in this major American showdown?

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Speaker 1: I really like me meat Pier. I like UTSA a lot.

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Speaker 1: Frank Harris has been on fire since Week nine against

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Speaker 1: East Carolina. He's had eight touchdowns to one interception. There's

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Speaker 1: no real advantages here in the secondary packages. The two

395
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Speaker 1: lane's gonna put out there their eightieth and coverage grading

396
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Speaker 1: per PFF. But the real stat in this game is

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Speaker 1: on target rate allowed. I remember, on target is a

398
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Speaker 1: statistic that checks to see if the wide receiver, the

399
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Speaker 1: tight end, whoever's catching the ball, if they don't come

400
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 1: out astride to hit them in the numbers, they don't

401
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: have to move whatsoever. Two lanes defense is one hundred

402
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 1: and thirtieth and opposing passing in targets like on target

403
00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: rate allowed, everybody's been bad. Secondary is bad, bad, and

404
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Speaker 1: is there you know, can UTSA establish the run their

405
00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,159
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifth and success rate Robert Henry and

406
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Speaker 1: Cavorian Barnes. There's just not a lot of a loosenness

407
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Speaker 1: lot a lot of juice. But Frank Harris, on the

408
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: other hand, now that he's fully healthy, changes that whole

409
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Speaker 1: dynamic completely. Now when I flipped to the other side,

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Speaker 1: two lane is near sixty percent in rush play selection

411
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Speaker 1: versus the pass. They're really good and they're rushing success

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Speaker 1: rate is kind of hard to discern what's going on

413
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Speaker 1: with this team. They are really good at inside zone,

414
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Speaker 1: they're really bad at outside zone. They're kind of okay

415
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Speaker 1: on counterman some of this other stuff that's doing that.

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Speaker 1: UTSA allows explosives against inside zone and they dominate outside

417
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Speaker 1: zone with the front seven. So I expect Tulane to

418
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Speaker 1: have a couple of explosives and inside zone, but nothing

419
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: moving the chains, nothing methodical. Green Wave are going to

420
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Speaker 1: be scoring or getting into position just on explosives. That's it.

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Speaker 1: So it's going to be one of those live betting

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Speaker 1: things where you're going to have a drought of points

423
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Speaker 1: and you're gonna have a flurry of points. So you know,

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Speaker 1: in so many categories mirror each other. With these two teams,

425
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Speaker 1: they have the same EPA expected points, explosiveness on offense

426
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Speaker 1: and defense. They mirror each other and have it and

427
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Speaker 1: havoc allowed. They mirror each other in finishing drives. There's

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Speaker 1: a small advantage for UTSA on offense in that point,

429
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Speaker 1: Frank Harris is healthy. They are rolling. Two lane is not,

430
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: and the two lane run concept that they want to

431
00:23:24,760 --> 00:23:27,159
Speaker 1: implement is going to get stopped by the UTSA defense.

432
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: I'll take three and a half for better on meet

433
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: meet me.

434
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,160
Speaker 2: Yep, I agree to meet meet for nothing. Only concerned

435
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 2: that Jeff Trailer any distractions there with some of these

436
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,280
Speaker 2: rumors and job openings. That's one little concern I have.

437
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,120
Speaker 2: But I think, yeah, he came out and he nicks

438
00:23:44,160 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 2: the rumors earlier today, So I mean sometimes that's just

439
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 2: coaches talking, but maybe that's a good thing.

440
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 1: What's funny is how much the A and M fans

441
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: don't want him.

442
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it would be a good high. He's

443
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:56,679
Speaker 2: not a sexy name, but he's built that program up

444
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 2: and that's that would be actually be a good higher.

445
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: All right, Let's stay on Friday and head to prime

446
00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: time out west for the Civil War when Oregon will

447
00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 2: host Oregon State. Oregon close to a two touchdown favorite

448
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: here this game Friday night in Eugene over under sixty

449
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: two and a half. Bow Knicks last week, six touchdowns

450
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 2: in the first half. Bow next season, then full effects.

451
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 2: I'm seeing that Daniels is the Heisman favorite. Now, I

452
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 2: could not have been more turned off by what Daniels

453
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,639
Speaker 2: and ls you were doing last week, begging to get Like,

454
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: here's the thing. People say, Well, Daniels can't help the

455
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: fact that his defense stinks. Yeah, but he's also getting

456
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: possessions all the way into the end of the game

457
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 2: because they can't get a stop. Dix could have twelve

458
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: touchdowns last week. You know, if they weren't, if they're

459
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 2: not blowing out these teams. Daniels begging and going in

460
00:24:55,119 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: and running up fake stats, hollow stats against George just

461
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: state that's not that. It does nothing for me as

462
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 2: a Heisman voter. So I'm sorry. I ultimately think that, Look,

463
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 2: Daniels is gonna be playing the last weekend, Nicks will

464
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: be playing Washington. He wins that game, there's a good performance.

465
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,199
Speaker 2: I think Knick is gonna win the Heisman.

466
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: Shout out to my friends that were at the Athletic

467
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,120
Speaker 1: They put together a Heisman straw pole every year, and

468
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 1: it's shocked me the last two years how accurate it's been.

469
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 1: Like they're doing this week's leading up and they graded

470
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 1: on a point basis like a three two one first, second, third, place.

471
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: Bo.

472
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 1: Nicks had a comfortable lead on Jayden Daniels in their

473
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 1: straw pole. So considering how accurate it's been the last

474
00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,360
Speaker 1: couple of years, I absolutely one hundred percent don't care

475
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,199
Speaker 1: that the odds are now favoring Jadan Daniels because the

476
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 1: people that are in charge of a large voice of

477
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: the Heisman voters are saying it's all bout Nicks.

478
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: But Daniels won't be playing that weekend. So if Oregon

479
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: wan's out, I think it's it's Nix's but Oregon State.

480
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 2: I played organ State plus fourteen playing down A thirteen.

481
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 2: There's a couple of games that I'm gonna get to

482
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: through out here. It's similar to the last week of

483
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: the NFL regular season when I always play this angle.

484
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of teams that are in must win spots, right,

485
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: gotta win for the Pack twelve Championship. Oregon loses this

486
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 2: game and Arizona wins, Arizona goes to the Pack twelve Championship. Arizona,

487
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,119
Speaker 2: by the way, Pack twelve South Champs. They just as

488
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: Jetfish said, they just happened to change the rule this year.

489
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 1: No long lost their down.

490
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: Time. The balls choose. But Oregon State, look, I mean

491
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: they're last week, they're favored at home against Washington and

492
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 2: they were the better team seventy percent post game would expectancy.

493
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 2: Now now you're catching two touchdowns. I know this maybe

494
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,159
Speaker 2: a little bit of a letdown, but this is the

495
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 2: Civil War, this is their in state rival, and they're

496
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: gonna be up for this game. They could ruin Oregon season. Also,

497
00:26:55,080 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 2: if you look at Oregon, they just demolished, demolished a

498
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 2: bunch of inferior teams this season. But if you look

499
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 2: at teams that are you know, close to their level,

500
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:10,480
Speaker 2: you know, the Texas Techs, the Washington's, the USC's, I mean,

501
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:14,000
Speaker 2: they haven't beat anybody by more good two touchdowns. So

502
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,119
Speaker 2: and look what Oregon's rundy has some holes from an

503
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 2: efficiency standpoint. So I think Oregon State will be able

504
00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 2: to move it a bit control the clock here. And

505
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:31,640
Speaker 2: I mean Jonathan Smith catching two touchdowns in a rivalry game.

506
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: For what it's worth, we pull up stats. He's fourteen

507
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 2: and six seventy percent against the spread as a road underdog,

508
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,879
Speaker 2: covering by a touchdown per game. I think this is

509
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:47,440
Speaker 2: inflated due to an unlucky loss last week that Oregon

510
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 2: State had and then just everyone's you know, seeing Oregon

511
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 2: of late, knowing that they have to win. I think

512
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 2: it's too many points. I think this this thing, this

513
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: thing will be fairly competitive throughout. I like the Beaver.

514
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 2: What do you think I.

515
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 1: Make it twelve? So I do think the numbers a

516
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,439
Speaker 1: little inflated. It would tell me that there's value in

517
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: Oregon State. But there is a serious problem in this

518
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: game for the Beavers, a serious problem. So one point

519
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: that you have to handicap is the fact that Oregon

520
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: State misses tackles like there is no tomorrow. They are

521
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,359
Speaker 1: graded a one hundred and thirty first per PFF and

522
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 1: tackle grading. That gets worse when you look at broken

523
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: tackles allowed one hundred and thirtieth. Sorry, similar, but it's

524
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: still bad. Tackling is a huge problem. You go back

525
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:32,240
Speaker 1: into their box scores, right, they miss nine tackles against Washington.

526
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 1: That's not good. Go back to Arizona a few weeks ago,

527
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 1: Oregon State missed twenty tackles. That's really bad. That's like

528
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: the worst in the nation. So you think, well, that's

529
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 1: going to be a problem every game. And they were

530
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 1: able to stick around with Washington and keep it to

531
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: a two point game. The problem is when you face Oregon.

532
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: Oregon is second in the nation and creating miss tackles

533
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,200
Speaker 1: with their elite wide receiver due of Troy Franklin, their

534
00:28:56,280 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 1: slot Tess Johnson, their running back Bucky Irving. These guys

535
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: are elusive machines. Getting hands on them is tough, toughest

536
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 1: in the nation. This is the biggest discrepancy I've ever

537
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 1: seen in broken tackles created versus broken tackles allowed, and

538
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: that is going to I mean, we can handicap this,

539
00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 1: left and right, passing trees, run concepts, all of this,

540
00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: but the fact of the matter is Oregon State is

541
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 1: just not tackling people whatsoever. Now they run a heavy

542
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 1: amount of rushing attempts. The Beavers do an outside zone,

543
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: and that's really been the Oregon defense is bread and butter.

544
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they are a low success rate, low amount

545
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: of explosives. We can argue the kind of rush offenses

546
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 1: the Organ's faced up to this point, but those are

547
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: the two things that really keep me off this Organ State, which,

548
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: as a matter of fact, I'm thinking about playing Organ

549
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: on the team total over just for the simple fact

550
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: of the mistackles, organ State could probably keep up and

551
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: cover the spread. But I don't have to worry about that. Really,

552
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: this whole mistackles thing is such a huge problem for

553
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: organ State, and it's not going away. So I do

554
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: think the numbers implanted. Though, if you had to play

555
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: the side, I'd lean Oregon State.

556
00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think Oregon's gonna have success moving

557
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 2: the ball here. I mean they don't really throw it

558
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 2: down field a ton, which is good.

559
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: For well, it makes say the lowest aid down the nations.

560
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 2: That's good for Oregan State because their corners aren't the

561
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 2: greatest covering downfield, as we saw against the dudent Day

562
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 2: last week. But yeah, mistackles could be a major issue

563
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,400
Speaker 2: if Oregon State isn't buttoned up here. Before we get

564
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 2: to Ohio State Michigan, let's look a little iron Bowl.

565
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 3: Everybody gets all excited about the beginning of the season.

566
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 3: You know, you get excited about getting married, all right,

567
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,120
Speaker 3: But after you're married for a while, you know you

568
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: got to have a process and make it work. We

569
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 3: need to have a process to make it work. And

570
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: every game that we play, every game that we play.

571
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 2: Alabama will travel to Auburn Saturday, three thirty eastern on CBS.

572
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 2: Alabama is a fourteen and a half point favorite here

573
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 2: over under forty eight and a half. I reluctantly went

574
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 2: back to the well of Auburn. Alabama is peaking at

575
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 2: the right time, but this look aheadline was ten and

576
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: a half. Alabama did nothing. I mean, they played their

577
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: ten horn game. Auburn obviously asked to get and that's

578
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 2: close to where I was ten and a half ish.

579
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 2: Auburn clearly has to get downgraded last week, although I don't.

580
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 2: I just think that they didn't prepare for the game

581
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 2: and were completely in overlook mode to this game. They

582
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 2: have to get downgraded. You lost it out right as

583
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 2: a twenty seven point favorite, but I still can't get

584
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 2: to over thirteen in this game, and I expect I'll

585
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 2: obviously be much more focused to actually have a game

586
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 2: plan here. You freeze one of the best in the business.

587
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 1: There.

588
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:44,880
Speaker 2: They were catching the same number against Georgia and I

589
00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 2: bet them and they cover with ease, and now you're

590
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: gets from the same number against Alabama. Alabama is getting

591
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: up there in the power riding, so they're not Georgia yet.

592
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: I mean it is you want to talk about a

593
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: spot where a team shows up after getting embarrassed, this

594
00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: is the one in your play your rival. It's also

595
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 2: Jordan Hare for the Iron Bowl. The weird things happen here.

596
00:32:05,960 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 2: For what it's worth, Alabama two and seven against the

597
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: spread in Jordan Hare since two thousand and five, They've

598
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:18,959
Speaker 2: lost five of nine outright, and then two of their

599
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: wins came by two and five as double digit favorites. Also,

600
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 2: you have Hugh Freeze, who's twenty eight and fourteen against

601
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: the spread as an underdog, covering by seven points per game,

602
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,240
Speaker 2: four and one against the spread against Nick Saban and

603
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 2: Alabama since two thousand and five. You Freeze six most

604
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 2: profitable coach out of five hundred and fifty one Interaction

605
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 2: Lab database. When catching points, this is just catch the

606
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: falling knife by low on Auburn. Now that you're getting

607
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 2: over two touchdowns. If this line is thirteen and a

608
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 2: half pass fourteen and a half, we'll play it. Trust

609
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,959
Speaker 2: the spot, We'll trust Jordan Hair voodoo, trust the Freeze,

610
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: preparation and Auburn bouncing back. I've seen worse Auburn teams.

611
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: Give Aladama a fight right to the end. In this

612
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 2: same exact spot.

613
00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: Weren't they weren't they down? Weren't they twenty one point

614
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: underdog against Bryce Young? It was? Yeah, that's bad.

615
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think I think you have to take

616
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 2: alburn over two touchdowns.

617
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: To me, I'm going to play a different angle here.

618
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 1: I think this is a Auburn first half all the way,

619
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 1: and this is an Alabama second half all the way.

620
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: And you know you're going to get probably the best

621
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: half of football from Auburn the entire year in the

622
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: first half. Based on the fact of what happened against

623
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: New Mexico State. Hugh Freeze already installing the game plan

624
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 1: last week, taken off for recruiting. I think you're just

625
00:33:39,920 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 1: gonna get it.

626
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 2: Go get the kitchen sake to like that any trick

627
00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 2: player that they have the best game plan. And we've met,

628
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: we've talked to the score aw Kiffin says Freeze is

629
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: the best game planner a joster like. So you're going

630
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 2: to get I assume an amazing script here.

631
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: And that show is in the middle eight numbers. I

632
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 1: brought this up with Freeze a couple of times so

633
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: far this year. I mean, Auburn is third in the

634
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 1: middle eight. That's the last four minutes of the second quarter,

635
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 1: it's the first four minutes of the third quarter. Point

636
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,560
Speaker 1: differential wise, Auburn is one of the best in the nation. Now,

637
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 1: Savan is not a bad coach, but he's only thirty

638
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: fourth in middle eight. Like the middle eight is a

639
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: really big deal. That just shows how good Hugh Freeze

640
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: and game management. Now, the problem that I have with

641
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: Auburn and why I'm going to be looking to play

642
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: Alabama live the second that four minute tick is up

643
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,160
Speaker 1: in the third quarter, is this is still Hugh Freeze

644
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 1: that coached oll Miss and beat Savan twice. And there

645
00:34:30,640 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: are things like once the kitchen Saint goes out once,

646
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: all these plays that are not on tape and all

647
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 1: that's gone out the window, and we're sitting around in

648
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,800
Speaker 1: the mid third quarter and it just comes on to,

649
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: you know, manning up talent on talent. I think there's

650
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: some real problems for Auburn here. Everything that they do

651
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 1: on the offensive side of the ball. Alabama has an

652
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 1: answer for Alabama is elite against zone read. They allow

653
00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: negative explosives, they are sixty percent and success rate in

654
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 1: stopping the kind of run concepts that Auburn has. By

655
00:34:58,800 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: the way, Auburn can't throw the ball. I don't know.

656
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 1: They have no success. They have no explosiveness with Peyton Thorn.

657
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 1: Maybe it comes in the off season, but it's just

658
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 1: not been there the entire year. And then you ask

659
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:12,279
Speaker 1: can Auburn can the defense stop the inside zone rate

660
00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,880
Speaker 1: of Jaylen Milroe, Jase McClellan, Roy del Williams. Answer is

661
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 1: sometimes they have middling numbers against inside zone. But I'm

662
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 1: really worried about how well Jalen Milroe throws the deep ball. Now,

663
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: this Auburn secondary, their top twenty in PFF grading, so

664
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 1: they should be able to handle it. But Milroe has

665
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:33,440
Speaker 1: not made a single mistake this entire season, no turnover

666
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 1: where he plays on, throws over twenty yards. I don't

667
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 1: think Alabama comes out and shows any of this or

668
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: shows any dominance in the first two quarters. But I

669
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,359
Speaker 1: think the second that middle eight is over and we've

670
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,000
Speaker 1: thrown the kitchen sink out, I think it's going to

671
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: be a different ballgame. So Auburn first half, for me,

672
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if they're tight or leading. Bama

673
00:35:51,200 --> 00:35:52,959
Speaker 1: for me is a live bet. Coming in the third quarter.

674
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there. Let's get to our final

675
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: Marque game, and it's the most highly anticipated game of

676
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:11,719
Speaker 2: the weekend, the game between Ohio State and Michigan. Michigan

677
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 2: is looking to win it's third straight after some down years.

678
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 2: For sure, I.

679
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 1: Don't think there was ever a question there.

680
00:36:23,840 --> 00:36:25,920
Speaker 2: I think it's just a lot of gobble.

681
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:29,760
Speaker 1: Gobble turkey, you know, gobble gobble gobble turkey from Jive

682
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:33,240
Speaker 1: Turkey gobblers. You know, it's that paints a pretty good pissure.

683
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,400
Speaker 2: For what it's worth, Michigan leads the all time series

684
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: sixty fifty one with six ties in the I'm sure

685
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 2: there's some like disputed results in games that are playing

686
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:47,240
Speaker 2: like the nineteen hundreds, largest victory eighty six nothing Michigan

687
00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:50,959
Speaker 2: in nineteen oh two. Michigan here, three and a half

688
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 2: point favorite. You've seen times. It's certain books it's ticked

689
00:36:55,760 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 2: down to three. Get some buy back there. I'm having

690
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 2: some trouble with this game. I mean, from a numbers perspective,

691
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 2: I think this is a little short. I think a

692
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 2: lot of people are overreacting. I mean, I was on

693
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 2: Maryland last week and it was a terrible spot for Michigan.

694
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: In between Penn State and Ohio State, and then you know,

695
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:21,919
Speaker 2: i'd be looking at Ohio State against Maryland. It's pretty

696
00:37:22,000 --> 00:37:23,719
Speaker 2: much I mean, they for a whole half, it was

697
00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 2: just they were they were in jeopardy of losing that game,

698
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 2: even with a pick six, until you know, some a

699
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 2: little run in the second half, which Ohio State has

700
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: done a number of times this year. They just have

701
00:37:36,160 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 2: these like stretches in the second half where they somehow

702
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: cover these big numbers. So hopefully we haven't been betting

703
00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: against you're listening Ohio State every week because most weeks

704
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 2: they probably don't deserve to cover these numbers and then

705
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: then finding a way to do so. So when I

706
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: look at Michigan, Harball won't be on the sidelines for

707
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 2: this game. And under suw More, they're like Michigan, they're

708
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 2: like Harball on steroids, Like they're so conservative and they've

709
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 2: run so much. But part of that is because the

710
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:08,800
Speaker 2: offensive line. I've talked about this, this is one of

711
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:13,720
Speaker 2: the parts of that of the handicap of the Penn Staking.

712
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 2: Their tackles are a problem, and they just couldn't drop

713
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,400
Speaker 2: McCarthy back. And then eventually they didn't even have to

714
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 2: pass in the second half and to roll them out.

715
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: Even you know Henderson was hurt the Arizona State transport.

716
00:38:26,040 --> 00:38:27,839
Speaker 2: He's been bad. Like just the tackles has been bad.

717
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: They can't pass protect, and then their offensive line in

718
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: general is just a step below or was last year,

719
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 2: which means the run game hasn't been as good. So

720
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: you know in this Ohio State defense is real. Jim Knowles,

721
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: a Worthy Royals Award candidate, won won the award in

722
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:45,760
Speaker 2: the past.

723
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:46,879
Speaker 1: I think he's on the group of five.

724
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I joke that a group of five coaches never

725
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 2: won it. I mean, give me some some Willie korn Uh,

726
00:38:55,920 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 2: give me some Brendan Barrion, some Bill bereckenmin. I mean,

727
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 2: there's some name. Come on, at least put their names

728
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 2: in there, even if you're not going to pick them.

729
00:39:04,719 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 2: But anyway, digress. So I think that the Michigan offense

730
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 2: it's not going to have much success here and they're

731
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: going to go super conservative as we've seen. But I

732
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 2: also don't think I don't trust the Ohio State offense.

733
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 2: I don't trust Kyle McCord against a really good Michigan defense.

734
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 2: Although we saw some cracks last week with you know,

735
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 2: some of the corners I haven't really faced, you know,

736
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 2: many competent passing attacks all year until they faced Maryland

737
00:39:32,800 --> 00:39:35,839
Speaker 2: last week. But the Ohio State offensive line also has

738
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 2: some issues. So when I look at this game, you know,

739
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 2: I think they're a little bit of a market over

740
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 2: reaction to the result last week. I mean, look, both

741
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 2: these teams are don't great data points. Maryland pretty much

742
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:53,439
Speaker 2: the same, and you know, Michigan Penn State. I would

743
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: probably favor Michigan a little bit. Penn State actually started

744
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:57,040
Speaker 2: to throw the ball before that game, and that was

745
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 2: on the road. Ohio State played Maryland and Penn State home.

746
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: So I don't know when this look aheadline was higher

747
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 2: than this. I think it's a little bit of a reaction.

748
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 2: But you have the sign stealing angle and horrible not

749
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:11,439
Speaker 2: on the sidelines, which have to be factors. So when

750
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 2: I look at this game, I show a little bit

751
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 2: of line value in Michigan, but I just can't you know,

752
00:40:17,200 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 2: I'm assuming they're gonna have a really good game point

753
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:21,200
Speaker 2: to take Harrison now and not let Harrison beat them.

754
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 2: And you know, I think both teams are gonna come

755
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 2: out really conservative. This is a huge game winner goes

756
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 2: to the collegewall cleof Yes, I mean disrespect to Iowa.

757
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: So I think that there's gonna be a feeling out process.

758
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 2: Let's not make a mistake early. We know our defenses

759
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 2: are what you know, we want to rely on here,

760
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 2: So I think, like fourth and one at midfield, hun,

761
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: I don't see in the first half one of these

762
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: teams gets a little ahead. You know, you do have

763
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: some explosive receivers, you do have question offensive lines with

764
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: great pass Russia. You could see some mistakes when either

765
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: one of these teams tries to open it up. So

766
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: I'm liking the first half under you're under twenty three.

767
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,399
Speaker 2: I just can't see either one of these teams having

768
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: much success, and I think both are going to be

769
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:19,000
Speaker 2: super conservative early on a ton of athletes on the field.

770
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 2: I could see it opening up. I could see once

771
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 2: it opens up, like I said, some turnovers happening. So

772
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 2: I don't locked it a bet yet, but I'm seeing

773
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 2: I'm feeling a first half under here. I know that

774
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: you put in Ohio state before you get to that case.

775
00:41:36,120 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on the first half under No, I agree.

776
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: That these games like this always turn into a three

777
00:41:42,640 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: or four series of them feeling each other out to

778
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 1: see what the other one has, and then that's I mean,

779
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 1: the same thing happened in the game last year. And

780
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 1: then Jim Knowles started lining up and cover zero and

781
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: Michigan started throwing over their head, so like things really

782
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 1: got amped up in the middle of the second core there.

783
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,440
Speaker 1: So for the first quarter, I think you're going to

784
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: get the same thing. You're just going to get and

785
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 1: that's all the Michigan is right now.

786
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 2: Even got like a nine minute Michigan field goal drive

787
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: to stuck to Benion.

788
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean my handicap is by the way, I

789
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 1: think it's the first time I bet Ohio State this

790
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:13,959
Speaker 1: entire season. But you have to ask yourself, what's happened

791
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: to JJ McCarthy since sharl Moore took over nineteen to

792
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 1: thirty one passing in the last two weeks, no tds,

793
00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: an interception, He had four turnover worthy throws against Maryland.

794
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 1: What is going on with JJ McCarthy, Like Heisman leaderboard

795
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,920
Speaker 1: gone completely gone. Now, I get it from Sharon Moore's

796
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,840
Speaker 1: standpoint of I'm running Blake Corum straight at Penn State's defense.

797
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: They can't stop it. So I'm just gonna do that.

798
00:42:35,480 --> 00:42:37,480
Speaker 1: I get it. I get it. That works, right. You're

799
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: not there for style points and to get JJ McCarthy

800
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 1: the heisman. You're there to win games. So that works.

801
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: But Michigan still has a major explosiveness problem. One hundred

802
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 1: and fourteenth in rush EPA, sixty sixth in pass EPA.

803
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 1: Not a ton of explosives from this group whatsoever. Maryland

804
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 1: had six passes more than Michigan of fifteen yards. They

805
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: had way more explosives through the air than Michigan did.

806
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:04,640
Speaker 1: Blake Hooram's carrying the entire offense right now. He splits

807
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 1: carries between inside zone man blocking concepts, but still no explosives.

808
00:43:09,719 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 1: He had zero twenty yards runs against the Maryland d

809
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 1: So when you go to the other side, I think

810
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 1: that's where the handicap comes in, because whether it's the

811
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,919
Speaker 1: offensive line being banged up, Harbaugh not being there, inefficiency

812
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 1: with McCarthy, or maybe Moore never wanted this to be

813
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: a passing offense in the first place. I mean, that's

814
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: not really his background. So I don't know what's going

815
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 1: on with the offense, but it's become prehistoric. Ohio State

816
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 1: on the other hand, according to Harrison, connection is about

817
00:43:36,360 --> 00:43:38,160
Speaker 1: the only thing that works with this group right now.

818
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: We can talk about other parts of it, but to me,

819
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: this is can Michigan stop what Marvin Harrison does now?

820
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: To do that, you need to go into Marvin Harrison

821
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: Junior's rout tree. He is the best route runner in

822
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,439
Speaker 1: college football. He's going to be the best route runner

823
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: just like his dad in the NFL. So you have

824
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:57,440
Speaker 1: to ask yourself, is Harrison's routtree going to be able

825
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: to take advantage of Michigan Wells runs hitches and crossers.

826
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 1: So if you're not familiar, I mean cross pretty easy,

827
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 1: but if you're not familiar with the hitch, he's going

828
00:44:06,960 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: to run up the field, come to a complete stop,

829
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,359
Speaker 1: turn around, take two steps up forward towards McCord. That

830
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 1: has been the bread and butter of McCord to Harrison

831
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:19,800
Speaker 1: the entire year. Michigan allows an extreme number of explosives

832
00:44:20,239 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: to people running the hitch. Now as just other people

833
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,400
Speaker 1: running hitch, that's not Marvin Harrison running hitch. So I

834
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: believe the best of Ohio States offense, which is that

835
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: route by Marvin Harrison Junior, has been really hard for

836
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: Michigan to defend this year, and I think that's going

837
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 1: to play out here no matter what covers they're in.

838
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 1: No explosives from McCarthy. Ohio States run defense dominates inside zone.

839
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 1: McCord is actually really good against cover three, which is

840
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 1: all Michigan has run this year. Put the bed in

841
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 1: on Ohio State. Let's go, and there has been buyback

842
00:44:53,760 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: off that three. That three came down at some of

843
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: the sharp shops as you and I are recording, it

844
00:44:57,000 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: came back to three and a half. I agree to you.

845
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: I think the number four. I don't think there's a

846
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 1: wave for Michigan to stop Marvin Harrison Junior. And I

847
00:45:03,320 --> 00:45:05,480
Speaker 1: think Ohio State purposely kept the ball out of his

848
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:07,840
Speaker 1: hands last week to keep him off film about what

849
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 1: they want to do. But that's what's going to happen.

850
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:10,560
Speaker 1: Crossers and Hitch.

851
00:45:10,719 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait to watch that one. I think

852
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: it'll be super slow start, so hopefully we can avoid

853
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 2: any mistakes. Ohio State has good edge rushers, so don't.

854
00:45:18,840 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 2: I don't think that Michigan's gonna have much success dropping

855
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:22,839
Speaker 2: McCarthy back. They're gonna have to rely on their run game,

856
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 2: be methodical, be conservative, which is how I think this

857
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: game starts out. This is a tough team right here.

858
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: We're proud to be from Ohio. It's always been Ohio

859
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 1: against the world.

860
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 2: It'll continue to be Ohio against the world. All right,

861
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:38,200
Speaker 2: let's get to some rapid fire.

862
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: Rapid fire, I'll mention a.

863
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 2: Couple big twelve dogs. I like Texas Tech catching thirteen

864
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: thirteen or fourteen somewhere around there against Texas. I think

865
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 2: this line's inflated. If you go just based on numbers,

866
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 2: you can get to hear just their seasonal numbers. But

867
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,280
Speaker 2: you have to remember that Texas Tech played two games

868
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 2: with Jake Strong and they got blown out. Right, that's

869
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 2: twenty percent of their season their third string quarterback. They

870
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 2: also played two other games with Morton completely hampered. He

871
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 2: couldn't throw the ball. West Virginia was one of those games.

872
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,880
Speaker 2: Morgan's come back, they've won. He's fully healthy. They've won

873
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: three straight. And when they've had a healthy Morton or

874
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 2: Shuck under center this year, they've lost two games. That's

875
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,759
Speaker 2: it to Oregon and again they could have won, and

876
00:46:26,800 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 2: then a double overtime in a game against Wyoming. I

877
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 2: think all the pressures on Texas here. They also have

878
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 2: some injuries on offense, I think Sanders and where they're

879
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 2: gonna play, but they also lost their running back for

880
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,279
Speaker 2: the season. But this Texas Tech team one of the

881
00:46:40,280 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: best six and five teams you'll see. Because of the

882
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 2: quarterback injuries, they can come in here loose Texas has

883
00:46:48,320 --> 00:46:50,919
Speaker 2: to win this game. And you know what Texas loose

884
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 2: Texas Tech is, I mean even more for it down

885
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 2: gambles and they're gonna just keep the pedal and put

886
00:46:57,000 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 2: the pressure on Texas here. I think that there's value

887
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 2: on the Red Raiders catching thirteen plus. I'll call it

888
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: for what it's worth. Of the past fifteen season. Texas

889
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:12,399
Speaker 2: eleven eighteen and one against the spread thirty seven point

890
00:47:12,480 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 2: nine percent is a home conference favorite of more than

891
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 2: a touchdown. So yeah, I think Texas Tech's a bit

892
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,880
Speaker 2: undervalued in the market because of the quarterback issues they had.

893
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 2: Running game has been good all year even with some

894
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:27,080
Speaker 2: of the quarterback issues. You know, past defense has some

895
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:30,360
Speaker 2: holes that I'm sure Texas will take advantage of at times.

896
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 2: But I think Texas Tech's live in this game and

897
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 2: they'll give Texas a scare.

898
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: And I mean Texas is not trying to cover this spread,

899
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, what are they actually playing for.

900
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 1: They're in the Big Twelve Championship game. I know that

901
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:45,520
Speaker 1: you want to be in the cultural playoff, and I

902
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 1: know you want to win the national title and you

903
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 1: have to win the game for that, But there's no

904
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:51,759
Speaker 1: style of points. I mean, you're no one's going to

905
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: give you anything special for getting to fourteen here in

906
00:47:54,440 --> 00:47:57,560
Speaker 1: covering this game. And Texas Tech is playing really good

907
00:47:57,560 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: football right now, so I completely agree with you. It

908
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: just needs to win this game to keep national title

909
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:03,759
Speaker 1: hopes to live. But they're playing in the Big Twelve

910
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:04,840
Speaker 1: Championship game no matter what.

911
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 2: So I don't know, that's not that's not confirmed.

912
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:09,919
Speaker 1: That is that not confirmed even if they lose this game.

913
00:48:10,000 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 2: So if they lose this game, the Big Twelve said

914
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:16,120
Speaker 2: that they'll come out and clarify tiebreakers after Like what

915
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 2: is going on? So like that, I've never seen this.

916
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 1: Score after the fact.

917
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 2: What are you talking? Yeah, after the game they said

918
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,440
Speaker 2: they'll they'll clarify if it's too complicated.

919
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 1: So they're hoping that they're hoping that they all knockep.

920
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: They're desperately desperately hoping nobody's tied at the end of

921
00:48:32,440 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 1: this shit, because that's what they're saying.

922
00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:38,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, the most likely scenarios of Texas wins and Oklahoma

923
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 2: State wins, It'll be Texas versus Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State's

924
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 2: seventeen points favorite against PYU. Another dog that I think

925
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 2: is live in the Big twelve which would knock Oklahoma

926
00:48:49,440 --> 00:48:53,359
Speaker 2: out is TCU. TCU catching double digits here. I think

927
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 2: TCU is another team Number one. They're playing to get

928
00:48:57,040 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 2: the bow. Eligibility prideful team means a lot, and they

929
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,800
Speaker 2: would to the national championship last year. And this is

930
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,920
Speaker 2: a team that lost so much from that team, especially

931
00:49:05,960 --> 00:49:08,319
Speaker 2: on offense at the skill position players. You expected them

932
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,320
Speaker 2: to struggle on offense early on, Well, they started to

933
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 2: figure it out. Josh Uber, the freshman quarterback, took some

934
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 2: bumps and bruises early on in the season. He's playing

935
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:21,880
Speaker 2: tremendous football. They found their quarterback of the future. His

936
00:49:22,000 --> 00:49:27,200
Speaker 2: first four games of action fifty seven percent completion percentage

937
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 2: six and a half yards per attempt, last three games

938
00:49:31,640 --> 00:49:34,920
Speaker 2: sixty eight and a half percent completion percentage nine point

939
00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 2: one yards per attempt. He's thrown for a three hundred,

940
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 2: three fifty three and four hundred. He's found a really

941
00:49:41,239 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 2: good connection with his tight end Jared Wiley. But this

942
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,920
Speaker 2: TCU team I think is a bit undervalue because of

943
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 2: their struggles they had early on in the season, and

944
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,440
Speaker 2: then you know they have a freshman quarterback who came

945
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 2: in and struggled. I think they were really finding their

946
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 2: footing here. Again, all the pressure on Oklahoma. Oklahoma needs

947
00:49:57,120 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 2: to win to keep their Big twelve title slide, and

948
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 2: this Oklahoma team, like number one. They've been really lucky

949
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:06,279
Speaker 2: turnovers in red zone, but they need a hundred yard

950
00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 2: pick six and at a flight fubble to beat BYU

951
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:11,520
Speaker 2: in the backup quarterback could have lost the UCF at home,

952
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 2: lost to Kansas, lost to Oklahoma State. I mean since that,

953
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 2: Texas pretty fortunate to win. They have one good performance

954
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 2: and a blaw win over West Virginia. That's it. I

955
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,880
Speaker 2: think this slot's too high. Dyan Gabriel I think is

956
00:50:23,920 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 2: gonna play for Root, their second lead receiver. I think

957
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,319
Speaker 2: is gonna play, but they're banged up. We don't know,

958
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:32,319
Speaker 2: so that just throws a wrench into it. Yeah, I

959
00:50:32,320 --> 00:50:34,880
Speaker 2: think this slene's too high for TCU team. That's peaking

960
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 2: at the right time. We'll come in here, won't be

961
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:42,040
Speaker 2: afraid of the stage. I like the horn frogs and

962
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:43,640
Speaker 2: could turn into a shootout.

963
00:50:44,040 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think to those of you that were betting

964
00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 1: the Oklahoma under nine and a half in the season,

965
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:51,640
Speaker 1: if you want to hedge that, you can try to

966
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 1: get Oklahoma live because I think TCU is very live

967
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:56,440
Speaker 1: in this game. To win this game, I think it

968
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: should be in all the round, Robins, I think you

969
00:50:58,160 --> 00:50:59,879
Speaker 1: should partake in the ten ten and a half. It's

970
00:51:00,040 --> 00:51:02,759
Speaker 1: out there in the market. But if you're saddled with

971
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 1: Oklahoma over I'm sorry, under nine and a half, then

972
00:51:06,080 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: you're going to be looking for Oklahoma live in this

973
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:10,640
Speaker 1: you know, hopefully below less than three. But I think

974
00:51:10,680 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: you're absolutely going to get it. In this game. TCU

975
00:51:13,160 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 1: was playing very well and what Oklahoma did up at

976
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 1: BYU is not a fluke. So go ahead, whatever futures

977
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 1: you have, whatever you might not have, whatever your slate

978
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:23,800
Speaker 1: is financially on this game, that is the way you

979
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:24,400
Speaker 1: should play it.

980
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:30,720
Speaker 2: Let's go to the Bluegrass and go to Kentucky at Louisville.

981
00:51:30,719 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 2: Louisville's seven point favorite. Here, Louisville has already locked up

982
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:39,000
Speaker 2: a bid in the ACC Championship game, but obviously this

983
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: is a big in state rivalry, so I'm assuming they

984
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 2: will get up for this. I don't really love the

985
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 2: matchup for Kentucky's defense here. Offense. I still just can't

986
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:52,320
Speaker 2: figure out on a week to week basis numbers wise,

987
00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:58,000
Speaker 2: I leave Kentucky. Yeah, I don't have much here. Anything here, Well.

988
00:51:57,800 --> 00:52:00,080
Speaker 1: You can't back it because they've been got off. I

989
00:52:00,120 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 1: mean South Carolina ran them up a flag poil. Kentucky's

990
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 1: won one of their past six games. They're going bowling,

991
00:52:05,719 --> 00:52:07,960
Speaker 1: but it doesn't look like they're gonna get over their

992
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 1: season in total of six and a half. It's yeah,

993
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: me too, real struggle to get anything going on, and

994
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: passing attempts and passing downs has just not been there.

995
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: Ray Davis limited to just sixty one yards on the

996
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,839
Speaker 1: ground by South Carolina. Kentucky only had two explosive runs.

997
00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 1: I mean, that is just a major red flag against

998
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 1: the South Carolina team that can't defend anybody on the ground.

999
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,479
Speaker 1: Louisville's defense is top twenty and EPA allowed. They don't

1000
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:35,319
Speaker 1: allow explosives in the air on the grounds. That kind

1001
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 1: of takes away Kentucky's big ability to bust one on

1002
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: the ground, but Wildcats haven't been able to do that lately,

1003
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,240
Speaker 1: so I'm not sure what tools they have on offense

1004
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:44,919
Speaker 1: to get this done. Their defense, on the other hand,

1005
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 1: has fallen to eighty fourth and defensive quality drives and

1006
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:52,160
Speaker 1: defensive finishing drives. More importantly, not maybe not being noticed,

1007
00:52:52,360 --> 00:52:54,040
Speaker 1: their red zone has fallen all the way to one

1008
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:57,360
Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth in red zone efficiency. You just I

1009
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 1: don't know what the numbers I and I don't want

1010
00:52:59,080 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 1: to back Louiville in this because you have overlooked the

1011
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 1: a SEC Championship game, but I just can't take a

1012
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: Kentucky number. They're just going in the wrong direction every way.

1013
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. Let's go to the Mountain West, San

1014
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 2: Jose State at UNLV.

1015
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 1: This game is a banger.

1016
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 2: This game's awesome. San Jose State's peaking at the right time.

1017
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 2: UNLV has been peaking all season. Huge comeback win last week,

1018
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 2: by the way, my round robin last week, which would

1019
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 2: have paid so much. I haven't been able to get

1020
00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:32,520
Speaker 2: a backdoor touchdown all year. I mean, I'm like, oh,

1021
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:34,880
Speaker 2: for my last thirty seven tries even in like the

1022
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 2: if you count the NFL and Buffalo almost got there

1023
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 2: was a fumbled at their goal line. I needed UNLV.

1024
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 2: I had my first three legs in. I needed UNLV,

1025
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 2: and then I needed Illinois. And after all the failed

1026
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 2: back doors, I got to watch that Illinois that Iowa

1027
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 2: vomit show go down and score a touchdown in the

1028
00:53:56,880 --> 00:54:00,400
Speaker 2: final minutes after Illinois dropped the past. That was horrendous. Anyway,

1029
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 2: it was an exciting hour because San Jose State comeback,

1030
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 2: the unb come back and then gets the Air Force.

1031
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:07,719
Speaker 2: They to get the stop at the red zone. The

1032
00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 2: Air Force brung it in. They're like seven stright quarterback

1033
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:12,360
Speaker 2: who completes a pass and like third and long. But

1034
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 2: UNLV holds on as of right now. They if they

1035
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:21,480
Speaker 2: win this game, they will host the Mountain West Championship

1036
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 2: and then they will play the winner of Air Force

1037
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 2: and Boise State. Boise State's six and a half point

1038
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: favor so if the chalk holds, UNLV will host Boise

1039
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 2: If UNLV loses all computers, it's all computers computer composite.

1040
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:45,800
Speaker 2: I think UNLV still would be the one based on

1041
00:54:45,880 --> 00:54:49,800
Speaker 2: their lead right now, would San Jose State jump Boise

1042
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 2: or air Force if they beat you, I don't know.

1043
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's it gets messy. But these all

1044
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,320
Speaker 2: these teams play each other in some combination, will be

1045
00:55:00,400 --> 00:55:04,840
Speaker 2: in the Mountain West Championship. UNLV probably there no matter what.

1046
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:07,640
Speaker 2: I guess you can't really get You can't lose by

1047
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 2: like fifty. But you and he's been an eight TM

1048
00:55:10,200 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 2: all season. That's against the spread record in college football

1049
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 2: with one just one loss against the number. You wan

1050
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,800
Speaker 2: to be three and a half point favorites here against

1051
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:25,319
Speaker 2: a Santase State team that has really figured it out.

1052
00:55:27,200 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 2: They had a really rough year, a rough start to

1053
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 2: the year. They lost some key pieces from last seasons team,

1054
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 2: and they had a tough non conference schedule. But they're

1055
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 2: peaking at the right time. UNLV obviously still playing great football.

1056
00:55:40,760 --> 00:55:44,719
Speaker 2: You know, be sitting here about three point favorite over

1057
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:49,480
Speaker 2: under fifty eight. I'm a bit worried about the Santase

1058
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:53,320
Speaker 2: State run defense. It's still an issue, but I have

1059
00:55:53,360 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 2: a sneaky suspicion they're gonna win this game more of

1060
00:55:56,239 --> 00:56:00,680
Speaker 2: a gut than anything else. What do you see here?

1061
00:56:03,800 --> 00:56:08,719
Speaker 1: So San Jose State really needs air Force to win

1062
00:56:08,840 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 1: that game on Friday. I believe if Boise wins against

1063
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:17,120
Speaker 1: air Force on Friday, san Jose State might not have

1064
00:56:17,239 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 1: a path to make the Mountain West Championship. And I'm

1065
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:22,920
Speaker 1: just trying to predict motivation here, not saying Santose State

1066
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:27,319
Speaker 1: is going to be in Vegas and lay down. I would,

1067
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna say they'd be in Vegas laid down,

1068
00:56:29,920 --> 00:56:32,920
Speaker 1: but they I'm not sure if their motivation is going

1069
00:56:33,000 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: to be affected on Saturday by what happens between Air

1070
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,840
Speaker 1: Force and Boise on Friday. But keep your okay, I

1071
00:56:38,880 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 1: don't know. I would say, you know, keep your thumb

1072
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:42,520
Speaker 1: on the pulse of the tie breakers and the computer

1073
00:56:42,600 --> 00:56:44,960
Speaker 1: projections and all that after the Bois Air Force game

1074
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:46,560
Speaker 1: to see if San Jose State has a shot to

1075
00:56:46,600 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 1: make it even if they beat you UNLV. But you know,

1076
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:53,480
Speaker 1: they can take advantage of a very poor UNLV secondary.

1077
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: Chavonne Cerneio dominates cover three from a success rate and

1078
00:56:56,680 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 1: an explosive standpoint, and that's the coverage that you're going

1079
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:02,320
Speaker 1: to see from UNLV. So I mean Chavon Cordero is

1080
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 1: gonna get his now. The question is can the San

1081
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:08,919
Speaker 1: Jose State defense stop the UNLV rushing attack. Oh boy,

1082
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 1: the Spartans run defense as follows inside zone. They have

1083
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,520
Speaker 1: a thirty eight percent success rate against inside zone and

1084
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:19,480
Speaker 1: everything's in explosive against man concepts forty three percent success rate.

1085
00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:23,640
Speaker 1: That's bad, and they allow explosives. It doesn't matter as.

1086
00:57:23,920 --> 00:57:25,919
Speaker 2: Right line in a program history from last year's team.

1087
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 2: So to drop off in the run to he was expected.

1088
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: And so what's funny is like, I know those those

1089
00:57:31,160 --> 00:57:32,919
Speaker 1: charts that I put it on Twitter that I show

1090
00:57:32,960 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 1: everybody about the run concepts. The success rate numbers are

1091
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: bad for San Jose State. Do you know how they

1092
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 1: get worse when you throw in what they've done against

1093
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:44,360
Speaker 1: those run concepts against twelve Now they haven't faced it

1094
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: against twenty two or twenty one, but when they have

1095
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: multiple tight ends, that success rate goes even lower. On defense,

1096
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:54,720
Speaker 1: about stopping it like this, UNLV offense is a chore.

1097
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:57,200
Speaker 1: If you're not good at stopping the run, and you're

1098
00:57:57,200 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 1: not good at stopping the run of two tight ends

1099
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 1: on the field, UNLV has got a back of tricks.

1100
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 1: They're ready to shove in your face. I took you

1101
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 1: and LV I have money down on three. I wouldn't

1102
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 1: buy it. A three and a half. But and I

1103
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:10,240
Speaker 1: think the numbers going against me. There's there's some a

1104
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: lot of love for San Jose State like yourself in

1105
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 1: the market, and I respect it, but the defense is

1106
00:58:14,920 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 1: so bad and I don't know. I'm just on this

1107
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 1: UNLV train. I think I might bet them in the

1108
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 1: Mountain West Championship. I'm gonna bet them in a bowl

1109
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:23,880
Speaker 1: as long as Brandon mary and it's still calling plays

1110
00:58:23,920 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 1: and they're still rolling twenty two to twenty one and

1111
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: twelve personnel out there, I'm all in on UNLV.

1112
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to a weird one. This is

1113
00:58:36,440 --> 00:58:38,440
Speaker 2: one of the probably the hardest games to handicap of

1114
00:58:39,200 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: the weekend. Florida State Florida rivalry game there. Florida is

1115
00:58:44,000 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 2: a six and a half point favorite over under fifty

1116
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:52,240
Speaker 2: and a half. Obviously, the big news here is Jordan

1117
00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 2: Travis is out for the season. I actually think to

1118
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 2: Florida State could be left out of their undefeated depending

1119
00:58:57,240 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 2: on how other things happen. But that's just me. Some

1120
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:00,120
Speaker 2: people say I'm crazy.

1121
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:02,680
Speaker 1: But oh I put out on Action Network how to

1122
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 1: bet the Collegeootball Playoff. The conclusion is, what's happened to

1123
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,000
Speaker 1: Florida State and Jordan Travis completely opens up the door

1124
00:59:09,040 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 1: for Texas if they went out. You're not gonna send

1125
00:59:11,120 --> 00:59:13,440
Speaker 1: ay Rodemaker to the damn playoff. I'm sorry, it's not

1126
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 1: gonna happen.

1127
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: I mean, Florida State could be eliminated this weekend. They

1128
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:19,040
Speaker 2: could lose this game, and they could lose A louis

1129
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 2: I have it about an eight point drop off from

1130
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:25,840
Speaker 2: Travis to Rodomaker, which is steep. Rodemaker was decent and

1131
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,120
Speaker 2: against Louisville, but Vason was just last week year already

1132
00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:29,480
Speaker 2: got in. But he bas was just like throwing jump

1133
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:33,400
Speaker 2: balls to Johnny Wilson. But Florida's also without Graham Martz.

1134
00:59:34,160 --> 00:59:39,280
Speaker 2: They lost him. Max Brown freshman, not highly recruited. I

1135
00:59:39,360 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 2: think it was like a three star he came in.

1136
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:43,360
Speaker 2: I didn't think he could throw it. I thought my

1137
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 2: Florida bett was cooked. Scared money, don't make money. You know,

1138
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 2: Naper going for it on four down his own territory

1139
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 2: with Max Brown. That was scared money, don't make money, baby,

1140
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 2: And can we get a damn upset? By the way,

1141
00:59:56,080 --> 01:00:00,520
Speaker 2: Missouri comes fourth to seventeen. Top nine teams are like

1142
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 2: one hundred and one since week to top five teams

1143
01:00:02,800 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 2: are forty one and one. It's crazy, there's like so

1144
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 2: much parody, but all these top teams keep finding away.

1145
01:00:08,360 --> 01:00:11,919
Speaker 2: The one upset on paper was Washington winning of course

1146
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:15,000
Speaker 2: because we had Oregon State. But Washington's the top five team. Yeah,

1147
01:00:15,160 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 2: they're just not losing. But anyway, so Florida will go

1148
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 2: to Max Brown. Now here's the interesting thing. There's other

1149
01:00:20,520 --> 01:00:23,040
Speaker 2: things to worry about Florida, like their their offensive line

1150
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:25,120
Speaker 2: out of left well the other defense too, but they're

1151
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 2: on the offense.

1152
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 1: They lost.

1153
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 2: They were without their starting left tackle, but Damien George

1154
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 2: went to left tackle. He got hurt. They were they

1155
01:00:31,280 --> 01:00:33,000
Speaker 2: were down to like third string offensive lineman.

1156
01:00:33,040 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 1: I got it.

1157
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: I give him credit. They were moving it on Missouri,

1158
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 2: even you know with Brown. And but here's the thing.

1159
01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:43,120
Speaker 2: Billy Napier, his offense is RPO abby with you know,

1160
01:00:43,240 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 2: go back to his time at Louisiana. Who did you

1161
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 2: have like Levi Lewis, He always had a mobile quarterback.

1162
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 2: It just seemed like Max Brown fits better, yep in

1163
01:00:53,960 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 2: the system, and like he's able to run the RPOs.

1164
01:00:56,520 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 2: March isn't really a runner. He's you know, he can

1165
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:00,440
Speaker 2: you know, get you some of your ard when you

1166
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 2: need it. But Brown is a good runner, so it

1167
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:06,200
Speaker 2: seemed like he was a better fit for the offense.

1168
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:08,400
Speaker 2: So like, I actually think that there's some upside there.

1169
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 1: And went straight to it too, I said, and I

1170
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 1: have to in this case because he directly went to

1171
01:01:15,760 --> 01:01:18,040
Speaker 1: Max Brown and called designed runs and it worked.

1172
01:01:18,800 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, So you know, now you get a full week

1173
01:01:21,240 --> 01:01:22,919
Speaker 2: of practice of them. I'm sure that that's all they're

1174
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 2: going to be installing. You know, take heavy run, heavy

1175
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:31,959
Speaker 2: RPO and then one read, easy throws right, one read

1176
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 2: to you know you'll get you know, you'll have some

1177
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,800
Speaker 2: other some misdirection with Wilson, but you have your stud

1178
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 2: receiver that I'm sure you're going to be have some

1179
01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 2: easy one rethrows for him. Florida State the other end,

1180
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:50,040
Speaker 2: what are you going to get from rouda maker? It's

1181
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:52,919
Speaker 2: hard to say. Our sample size isn't great. Limited action

1182
01:01:52,960 --> 01:01:58,760
Speaker 2: against Louisville played North Alabama last week, but really fascinating

1183
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,040
Speaker 2: game to break down. I actually think that there's some

1184
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 2: upside with this Florida quarterback change. All the pressure on

1185
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 2: Florida State rivalry games. Kids know each other well in State.

1186
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,040
Speaker 2: I think at the minimum. Florida is a good money

1187
01:02:15,120 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 2: on round robin piece due to the uncertainty. Hear, but

1188
01:02:20,000 --> 01:02:21,080
Speaker 2: do you have any thoughts on this game?

1189
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 1: How do you even come up with a number on

1190
01:02:23,400 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 1: this game? So the drop to Tate Ronemaker, I made

1191
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,080
Speaker 1: it six points instead of eight, and that's because Tate

1192
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 1: Ronamaker at least has experience. Now, he went thirteen of

1193
01:02:32,720 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 1: twenty three against North Alabama after the Jordan Travis injury,

1194
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: and when you look at his past, I mean there's

1195
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 1: plenty of experience. Going back to twenty twenty. He's got

1196
01:02:40,880 --> 01:02:45,000
Speaker 1: sevent tds to five ironts. He's got nearly double amount

1197
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 1: of turnover worthy plays than big time throws. But when

1198
01:02:47,640 --> 01:02:51,320
Speaker 1: you go into that actual stat, because it's five to nine, right,

1199
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 1: three of them came against North Alabama last week, So

1200
01:02:53,840 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 1: the true number is two big time throws in his career,

1201
01:02:57,520 --> 01:03:00,280
Speaker 1: nine turnover worthy plays. You know fs is and even

1202
01:03:00,280 --> 01:03:02,320
Speaker 1: distribution of running pass But you would think that they're

1203
01:03:02,360 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 1: going to rely on the run a little bit more

1204
01:03:04,520 --> 01:03:06,880
Speaker 1: with Trey Benson, but they haven't been that good ninety

1205
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:09,840
Speaker 1: third rushing success rate, So Florida State and Rodemaker, they're

1206
01:03:09,840 --> 01:03:11,919
Speaker 1: going to be tasked with throwing downfield because I don't

1207
01:03:11,920 --> 01:03:13,880
Speaker 1: think Trey Benson and their running game is going to

1208
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 1: generate enough to get first downs. So Ronomaker is going

1209
01:03:16,960 --> 01:03:19,400
Speaker 1: to have to throw in this game. Now. Pretty sure

1210
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 1: I'm sliding in on Florida, even though I'm not going

1211
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,880
Speaker 1: to get a Seven designed runs for Max Brown are

1212
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 1: the new Florida offense. Thirty seven yards from designed runs.

1213
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 1: He had twelve on a scramble he created mistackle. He

1214
01:03:31,440 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: had three runs of ten yards or more. There's nothing

1215
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 1: spectacular about that Florida State defense against zone rushing attempts.

1216
01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 1: I think Max Brown is going to have himself a

1217
01:03:40,000 --> 01:03:40,520
Speaker 1: day here.

1218
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 2: And you know what, go back to what drones grand

1219
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:46,040
Speaker 2: for like eighty or ninety yards. Yeah, pastiaos for BC

1220
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,720
Speaker 2: in a similar type of offense, he was ad success.

1221
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 1: I'm nervous about putting a bed in on what the

1222
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:55,040
Speaker 1: Florida defense like in my back pocket, but I actually

1223
01:03:55,120 --> 01:03:57,080
Speaker 1: like Max Brown playing quarterback. I think he is a

1224
01:03:57,240 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 1: massive upgrade versus Florida State's Tay Rotemaker.

1225
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:02,160
Speaker 2: Know Florida's defense gets a couple of guys ick. Thed

1226
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:04,400
Speaker 2: a couple of guys out last week to injury. But

1227
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:07,600
Speaker 2: you're playing against a backup quarterback, and the units that

1228
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,160
Speaker 2: step up in these rivalry games with a lot on

1229
01:04:10,240 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 2: the line and play up is usually the defense, right

1230
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 2: like Florida's defense will probably play up here. They're definitely

1231
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:19,720
Speaker 2: gonna make my round, Robin. I'll probably end up playing them,

1232
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna wait to see if because I would

1233
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 2: love a seven. You got the dog god Billy Naper.

1234
01:04:24,400 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 2: All he does is cover one final one. Iowa was

1235
01:04:27,480 --> 01:04:30,680
Speaker 2: state at Kansas State. Kansas State still in the mix.

1236
01:04:30,760 --> 01:04:32,560
Speaker 2: They need a lot of help to get to the

1237
01:04:32,640 --> 01:04:36,760
Speaker 2: Big Twelve title because after the rule changes, they obviously

1238
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:40,320
Speaker 2: need to win and beat Iowa State. I would state

1239
01:04:40,400 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 2: taking money. It's a bit surprising to me. I always

1240
01:04:44,600 --> 01:04:48,600
Speaker 2: state their offense so inefficient they need They just need explosives.

1241
01:04:48,640 --> 01:04:50,680
Speaker 2: That's it. There are offensive a down the down basis

1242
01:04:50,720 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 2: is so bad, but their defense usually keeps them in games.

1243
01:04:54,520 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 2: Do you have anything here? I always state Kansas State.

1244
01:04:56,720 --> 01:04:58,840
Speaker 1: It definitely surprises me that I always thinks taking money,

1245
01:04:58,880 --> 01:05:00,760
Speaker 1: I would bet Kansas State here. I would state can't

1246
01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 1: generate any kind of rushing offense whatsoever, and that's.

1247
01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 2: Clearly rely on explosives.

1248
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you're you're dead last there, one hundred

1249
01:05:11,280 --> 01:05:13,880
Speaker 1: and thirty third offensive stuff rate and that's not going

1250
01:05:13,960 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 1: to play against the Kansas State team that's eleventh defensively

1251
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:18,200
Speaker 1: and stuff rate. So I think this is going to

1252
01:05:18,240 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 1: be a lot of possessions for Kansas State and their

1253
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 1: fourth and offensive finishing drives. I'll probably fire on it

1254
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:25,360
Speaker 1: by the time we get off the podcast. I just

1255
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:27,200
Speaker 1: I don't understand why it's going the other way. I

1256
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 1: didn't see any I mean, Ioways State finally had to

1257
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 1: step up in competition. Didn't work out so well.

1258
01:05:32,480 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 2: All right, let's get to some trash the trash man

1259
01:05:35,960 --> 01:05:36,640
Speaker 2: pick of the week.

1260
01:05:37,240 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 1: I'm the trash man. Just throw me the trash, your garbage,

1261
01:05:40,920 --> 01:05:41,560
Speaker 1: and you know it.

1262
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:45,480
Speaker 2: Totally unreliable, undependably. That's it. You've been told off.

1263
01:05:45,520 --> 01:05:46,720
Speaker 1: How do you like that? Good?

1264
01:05:46,920 --> 01:05:50,600
Speaker 2: We gotta change my outfit here, got a new outfit

1265
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 2: for this segment.

1266
01:05:53,720 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 1: This is great.

1267
01:05:54,800 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 2: I'll go through these quickly. Just tell me if you

1268
01:05:56,480 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 2: agree or disagree. Central Michigan YA plus ten and a

1269
01:05:59,240 --> 01:06:02,760
Speaker 2: half against Toledo. So this is a spot where you

1270
01:06:02,840 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 2: have a team that needs a win to get the

1271
01:06:04,160 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 2: ball eligibilit against team playing for nothing. Toledo had to

1272
01:06:07,240 --> 01:06:09,600
Speaker 2: come back win last week against the rival to get revenge.

1273
01:06:09,960 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 2: They know they're playing my AMMI of Ohio in the

1274
01:06:13,840 --> 01:06:15,720
Speaker 2: match Championship. What did they do last year in the

1275
01:06:15,760 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 2: same exact spot they lost out right as double digit

1276
01:06:18,320 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 2: favor What do they do? They started the akuon Finn

1277
01:06:20,600 --> 01:06:23,160
Speaker 2: and their starters and then they pulled everybody. I expect

1278
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:25,600
Speaker 2: them to do the same. Central Michigan. I think it

1279
01:06:25,680 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 2: good win this game out right terrible spot for Toledo.

1280
01:06:29,320 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 2: Doubt they care. Just get healthy and get the fuck

1281
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:34,920
Speaker 2: out of Mount Pleasant. Give me the chips.

1282
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 1: Digital Michigan sit on five wins. Let's do it.

1283
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:42,000
Speaker 2: Fire up chips ball State against mya Ohio. I like

1284
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:44,840
Speaker 2: Ball State here. This is a team. In my mid

1285
01:06:45,520 --> 01:06:48,160
Speaker 2: mid season mac manifesto, I said, buy on team they've

1286
01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 2: covered ever since mya Ohio. What they already know that

1287
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 2: they're playing Toledo wouldn't be shocked if they sit starters.

1288
01:06:55,720 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 2: They already lost Brett Gabbertt. I doubt they're gonna play

1289
01:06:58,480 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 2: the number one receivers dealing with the hamstring injury. Why

1290
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:03,640
Speaker 2: would you risk Smith getting her You're down to your

1291
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:06,480
Speaker 2: backup quarterback. This game is going to be ugly as sin.

1292
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 2: I mean, it's totals dropping. I think it should still

1293
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:13,120
Speaker 2: keep going. It's down to like thirty five. More value

1294
01:07:13,120 --> 01:07:16,040
Speaker 2: in the dog ball State playing for pride here and

1295
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:18,880
Speaker 2: by the way, last year, these two teams in the

1296
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,000
Speaker 2: final week of the regular season, both at five and six,

1297
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:26,240
Speaker 2: playing for Bowl eligibility. Ball State was up seventeen to

1298
01:07:26,320 --> 01:07:29,080
Speaker 2: six in the fourth quarter. Mayama, Ohio came back and

1299
01:07:29,200 --> 01:07:32,360
Speaker 2: won in a miraculous fashion. They won eighteen to seventeen,

1300
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 2: knocked ball State out of a bowl. I think Ball

1301
01:07:35,640 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 2: State will be up for this. I think they went

1302
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 2: out right he yuck.

1303
01:07:39,240 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 1: They've been knocked out a bowl contention for a while

1304
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: and they continue to cover games. So absolutely all the way,

1305
01:07:43,520 --> 01:07:45,720
Speaker 1: this is such an overlook spot for miam of Ohio.

1306
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:50,080
Speaker 2: We already mentioned the Jacksonville State spot. This is I

1307
01:07:50,160 --> 01:07:54,200
Speaker 2: think the second best spot on the board. Nebraska, Nebraska

1308
01:07:54,280 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 2: at home against Iowa Nebraska.

1309
01:07:57,920 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 1: Honestly, it's not for everyone.

1310
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:03,640
Speaker 2: I mean Iowa with another ridiculous win last week. This

1311
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 2: is the worst offense in the country. Arguably there's no

1312
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 2: Cooper Jean. Still, they were celebrating that like they won.

1313
01:08:09,480 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 2: Then now they go to Nebraska in a short week.

1314
01:08:12,800 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 2: They already in the Big Ten championship. Nebraska playing football

1315
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:19,160
Speaker 2: eligibility super important for Matt Rule. I love backing these

1316
01:08:19,240 --> 01:08:22,920
Speaker 2: teams with a good coach in their first year trying

1317
01:08:22,960 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 2: to go to a bowl. Nebraska's been very unlucky. I mean,

1318
01:08:26,000 --> 01:08:28,960
Speaker 2: man a couple other results. They're playing for the division

1319
01:08:29,000 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 2: in this week. Nebraska can run the ball a bit.

1320
01:08:32,640 --> 01:08:35,439
Speaker 2: That's how you beat Iowa and Purty Chubb a party

1321
01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:39,000
Speaker 2: in his first start last week, gave Nebraska offensive juice

1322
01:08:39,040 --> 01:08:41,120
Speaker 2: through for one to seventy round for one hundred plus.

1323
01:08:42,080 --> 01:08:44,960
Speaker 2: Nebraska's what's their defense? One of the best run defenses

1324
01:08:44,960 --> 01:08:47,320
Speaker 2: in the country. How's Iowa going to move the ball?

1325
01:08:47,680 --> 01:08:51,879
Speaker 2: Deacon Hill throwing it? No? Nebraska, Nebraska, Nebraska.

1326
01:08:52,320 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 1: I think my advice everybody is, yes, Nebraska is the

1327
01:08:54,960 --> 01:08:56,760
Speaker 1: one of the biggest spots in the entire card. But

1328
01:08:56,880 --> 01:09:00,479
Speaker 1: the way that these Iowa games are playing out money on. Yeah,

1329
01:09:00,479 --> 01:09:02,400
Speaker 1: I don't want to spot any points. Play the money line.

1330
01:09:03,040 --> 01:09:07,880
Speaker 2: Play the money line, Yeah, play the money line Nebraska. Yeah.

1331
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:09,680
Speaker 2: The total is twenty six and a half, by the way,

1332
01:09:09,760 --> 01:09:13,840
Speaker 2: lowest college football history. They might still go down. It

1333
01:09:13,920 --> 01:09:15,720
Speaker 2: might go down. They might go down to twenty five

1334
01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 2: and a half. Unbelievable. Illinois verursus Northwestern, Northwestern. Hell of

1335
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:24,519
Speaker 2: a year, but they got the bowl eligibility. And look,

1336
01:09:25,160 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 2: I mean, you got to give David Brown credit, but

1337
01:09:28,000 --> 01:09:32,439
Speaker 2: I mean last week they beat Produce, you know, backup quarterback.

1338
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:36,080
Speaker 2: The quarterback was scratched and they even got dominating that game. Statistically,

1339
01:09:36,360 --> 01:09:39,760
Speaker 2: they beat Howard by three route game. I mean, they

1340
01:09:39,880 --> 01:09:42,120
Speaker 2: had like a thirty point comeback to win an overtime

1341
01:09:42,120 --> 01:09:44,519
Speaker 2: against Minnesota. They have like one good win on the

1342
01:09:44,560 --> 01:09:47,640
Speaker 2: year against Wisconsin. The Northwestern team, it's still like what

1343
01:09:47,680 --> 01:09:50,160
Speaker 2: their bottom five yards per play, It's still not a

1344
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:53,519
Speaker 2: great team. They're satisfied, their coaches signed. They're going to

1345
01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 2: a bowl. Illinois, on the other hand, they've been unlucky.

1346
01:09:56,439 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 2: Another unlucky loss. Last week. They had won against was

1347
01:10:00,400 --> 01:10:02,519
Speaker 2: they could be playing for the division they're playing to

1348
01:10:02,520 --> 01:10:05,639
Speaker 2: get the bowl eligibility. I think they steam roll.

1349
01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:09,720
Speaker 1: This number is high. Yeah, I think the numbers too high.

1350
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:10,519
Speaker 1: Is high.

1351
01:10:11,600 --> 01:10:13,240
Speaker 2: It should be like anything under a touchdown.

1352
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:15,360
Speaker 1: All right, all right, I'll let you roll. I'll let

1353
01:10:15,400 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 1: your roll with it. I'm gonna I'm gonna pass it is.

1354
01:10:17,160 --> 01:10:18,519
Speaker 2: This is passing on Burt.

1355
01:10:18,600 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 1: Three and a half for sure. This is high.

1356
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:26,240
Speaker 2: Let's go to some al gifts. Temple plus eleven and

1357
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:28,920
Speaker 2: a half at home against Memphis. This is the third

1358
01:10:29,000 --> 01:10:32,040
Speaker 2: best spot on board. Memphis loses the close game last

1359
01:10:32,080 --> 01:10:36,040
Speaker 2: week to SMU ruins their chance of going to the

1360
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:40,240
Speaker 2: American Championship. They're already in a bowl now in a

1361
01:10:40,360 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 2: short week in Philly in front of seven people, they

1362
01:10:44,200 --> 01:10:48,120
Speaker 2: got to play Temple in a meaningless game. I mean,

1363
01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:50,960
Speaker 2: I don't know how Memphis shows up here. Temple I

1364
01:10:51,000 --> 01:10:52,920
Speaker 2: think is still a little under valued because they had

1365
01:10:52,920 --> 01:10:54,479
Speaker 2: to play without each Day Warner. He might be one

1366
01:10:54,520 --> 01:10:56,519
Speaker 2: of the most important players in the country against the

1367
01:10:56,560 --> 01:10:58,640
Speaker 2: spread because they don't have a backup. Their backups are

1368
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:00,720
Speaker 2: basically running backs. And then if you look at this

1369
01:11:00,800 --> 01:11:05,200
Speaker 2: Memphis team, I mean they beat North Texas forty five

1370
01:11:05,280 --> 01:11:08,679
Speaker 2: forty two, South Florida fifty nine to fifty, Charlotte forty

1371
01:11:08,720 --> 01:11:12,160
Speaker 2: four to thirty eight, I mean they don't they don't

1372
01:11:12,160 --> 01:11:14,879
Speaker 2: play any defense. They can't get any stops against anybody.

1373
01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:17,479
Speaker 2: Too many points. Horrible spot.

1374
01:11:17,560 --> 01:11:19,960
Speaker 1: Give me the Ouls gets your bad mouth in my

1375
01:11:20,200 --> 01:11:22,840
Speaker 1: covering Memphis for the show the other day. I told you, Hey,

1376
01:11:22,960 --> 01:11:23,320
Speaker 1: I called it.

1377
01:11:23,439 --> 01:11:26,400
Speaker 2: I said back door, and I call that I call

1378
01:11:26,479 --> 01:11:29,320
Speaker 2: I said, I said, that's that's a backdoor game. I

1379
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:31,240
Speaker 2: would play it under a touchdown, but I think that's

1380
01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:32,320
Speaker 2: the that's the right side.

1381
01:11:32,760 --> 01:11:34,760
Speaker 1: My problem is the defense for Temple. I mean one

1382
01:11:34,800 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty first defensive quality drives, one hundred and

1383
01:11:37,160 --> 01:11:39,720
Speaker 1: twenty things. Coverage you can't you can't allow that much

1384
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:40,280
Speaker 1: passing any.

1385
01:11:40,200 --> 01:11:41,920
Speaker 2: Space doesn't I'm not I don't want to get spot.

1386
01:11:42,000 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 2: Look at every Memphis game. Every Memphis game, no matter

1387
01:11:44,000 --> 01:11:45,679
Speaker 2: who they play, is fifty to forty five.

1388
01:11:46,040 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 1: I'll pass this one's on you and everybody when you

1389
01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:50,240
Speaker 1: call into the voicemails. I was not a part of Temple.

1390
01:11:50,600 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 2: All gifts one final one San Diego State plus six

1391
01:11:53,520 --> 01:11:56,760
Speaker 2: against Fresno. A couple things here. Fresno loses outright, is

1392
01:11:56,760 --> 01:11:59,920
Speaker 2: a three touchdown favorite to New Mexico, ends their CEA.

1393
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:02,800
Speaker 2: They're going to a ball but they're out of Mount

1394
01:12:02,840 --> 01:12:04,760
Speaker 2: West contention. They were in first place a couple weeks ago.

1395
01:12:05,200 --> 01:12:07,320
Speaker 2: We talked about they were a fraud anyway, by the way,

1396
01:12:07,360 --> 01:12:10,439
Speaker 2: their star left tackle, he's out for the year. His

1397
01:12:10,520 --> 01:12:11,920
Speaker 2: backup got hurt. Last game they had to go to

1398
01:12:12,000 --> 01:12:14,640
Speaker 2: the third string against Mexico was a disaster. I think

1399
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:17,600
Speaker 2: Mikey Kem will play, not sure he's fully healthy. What

1400
01:12:17,960 --> 01:12:20,960
Speaker 2: can San Diego State not do? They cannot defend the run.

1401
01:12:21,520 --> 01:12:23,960
Speaker 2: Anytime they've played a team, and they played some elite

1402
01:12:24,040 --> 01:12:27,680
Speaker 2: rushing teams UCLA or State Air Force, they get destroyed.

1403
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:31,280
Speaker 2: Right all the other games they're right in it and

1404
01:12:31,320 --> 01:12:34,040
Speaker 2: they're feisty. Rady Hoak great is a dog off the loss.

1405
01:12:35,400 --> 01:12:37,639
Speaker 2: And what Fresido State can't run the ball. They don't

1406
01:12:37,720 --> 01:12:39,519
Speaker 2: run the ball and they don't run it well, so

1407
01:12:39,640 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 2: they're not gonna be able to attack San Diego State's

1408
01:12:41,240 --> 01:12:45,120
Speaker 2: main weakness year Brady Hope's final game retirement game. Everything

1409
01:12:45,160 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 2: I've read they're going to.

1410
01:12:47,360 --> 01:12:51,200
Speaker 1: Be up for this San Diego State is absolutely I

1411
01:12:51,240 --> 01:12:54,200
Speaker 1: mean that goes right into my San Diego State section

1412
01:12:54,360 --> 01:12:56,800
Speaker 1: of the podcast, and absolutely were playing San Diego State

1413
01:12:56,880 --> 01:13:00,479
Speaker 1: in a Brady Hoke retirement game, was on this two

1414
01:13:00,520 --> 01:13:06,160
Speaker 1: game losing streak to San Jose by twenty four and

1415
01:13:06,320 --> 01:13:09,160
Speaker 1: lost to New Mexico outright, I mean, it's just unfathomable

1416
01:13:09,240 --> 01:13:12,720
Speaker 1: with this team. San Diego State covers Colorado State. They

1417
01:13:12,960 --> 01:13:15,360
Speaker 1: lost to San Jose by nine, So you think about that,

1418
01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:18,040
Speaker 1: like Fresno just recently lost to San Jose by twenty

1419
01:13:18,080 --> 01:13:20,479
Speaker 1: four and San Diego State only lost by nine to

1420
01:13:20,560 --> 01:13:22,720
Speaker 1: San Jose. So I just you know, I think there's

1421
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:24,719
Speaker 1: two teams going in different directions. At least San Diego

1422
01:13:24,800 --> 01:13:27,160
Speaker 1: State has a pulse and is trying to cover in

1423
01:13:27,240 --> 01:13:30,320
Speaker 1: these losses, and they have been. Fresno had just nine

1424
01:13:30,360 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 1: completions apiece from Mikey Kean and Logan Fife. Keene's practicing

1425
01:13:34,640 --> 01:13:37,000
Speaker 1: this week, he says, it's you know, he's healthy and

1426
01:13:37,080 --> 01:13:40,360
Speaker 1: good to go. We'll see. But Fresno was horrific running

1427
01:13:40,360 --> 01:13:42,920
Speaker 1: the ball against New Mexico. In seventeen carries, they averaged

1428
01:13:42,960 --> 01:13:45,800
Speaker 1: three yards of carry. The total is right, But we're

1429
01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:47,479
Speaker 1: playing San Diego State all the way, like you said,

1430
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:48,200
Speaker 1: all right.

1431
01:13:48,240 --> 01:13:51,840
Speaker 2: Two other games, people asked about the Battle of the

1432
01:13:51,880 --> 01:13:57,320
Speaker 2: Old Oaken Bucket between Purdue in Indiana.

1433
01:13:57,960 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 1: The old the most cover whitch.

1434
01:14:06,680 --> 01:14:12,320
Speaker 2: And this's all I mean to me. A couple last

1435
01:14:12,320 --> 01:14:14,560
Speaker 2: about this pur Due now is I think they're like

1436
01:14:14,600 --> 01:14:17,080
Speaker 2: a three and a half point favorite. They're both three

1437
01:14:17,160 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 2: and eight, just playing for pride. And rivalry and the bucket.

1438
01:14:20,240 --> 01:14:22,640
Speaker 2: It just comes down to puts and card plays. They

1439
01:14:22,680 --> 01:14:26,360
Speaker 2: said that they're hopeful, optimistic. I think he might not apply,

1440
01:14:26,800 --> 01:14:28,200
Speaker 2: in which case I would lean Indiana.

1441
01:14:29,080 --> 01:14:32,000
Speaker 1: Any thoughts there most of the point in him playing, right,

1442
01:14:32,120 --> 01:14:35,000
Speaker 1: I mean, you wouldn't you rather keep him at full

1443
01:14:35,040 --> 01:14:36,320
Speaker 1: health for what you want to do in the future.

1444
01:14:36,320 --> 01:14:38,360
Speaker 1: I mean, we're really really looking at Tom Allen's last

1445
01:14:38,400 --> 01:14:41,920
Speaker 1: game as an Indiana coach versus Ryan Walter's last game

1446
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:45,560
Speaker 1: in his first season. So you know, yeah, but I

1447
01:14:45,640 --> 01:14:48,240
Speaker 1: agree with you, Hudson. Card isn't there. It's it's it's

1448
01:14:48,280 --> 01:14:50,439
Speaker 1: a play on Indiana. For me, these players at least

1449
01:14:50,439 --> 01:14:51,000
Speaker 1: love Tom Allen.

1450
01:14:51,000 --> 01:14:55,000
Speaker 2: They should show up one final rivalry game in rivalry

1451
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 2: Week Clemson South Carolina seven seven and a half point underdog.

1452
01:15:00,200 --> 01:15:04,519
Speaker 2: They need to win to get to Bowl eligibility. I

1453
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 2: lead South Carolina here.

1454
01:15:06,439 --> 01:15:08,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think they're gonna win out right. I think

1455
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:10,360
Speaker 1: they're gonna win out right. And you know what, you

1456
01:15:10,439 --> 01:15:12,160
Speaker 1: know what's sad is that I can't explain it. There's

1457
01:15:12,240 --> 01:15:14,200
Speaker 1: nothing in the advanced status that says that they're going

1458
01:15:14,240 --> 01:15:16,400
Speaker 1: to be able to get one over on the Clemson defense.

1459
01:15:17,160 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 1: But this is what South Carolina did last year. By

1460
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:22,479
Speaker 1: the way, I think Beamer and I don't have the number,

1461
01:15:22,560 --> 01:15:24,840
Speaker 1: I know he came into the season around eight and

1462
01:15:25,120 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 1: two against the spread, and non conference games like non

1463
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:31,320
Speaker 1: conference games are just you get the best out of

1464
01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:33,200
Speaker 1: Beamer and his coaching. I don't know what it is,

1465
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:37,799
Speaker 1: but the way they're playing, you know, beat in Kentucky.

1466
01:15:38,320 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 1: The fact that they pulled off a couple of upsets

1467
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:42,840
Speaker 1: in November last year. Something about this time of year

1468
01:15:43,160 --> 01:15:46,200
Speaker 1: and playing a non conference South Carolina is a completely

1469
01:15:46,200 --> 01:15:46,759
Speaker 1: different animal.

1470
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:49,479
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff, before we get out of here,

1471
01:15:50,280 --> 01:15:51,439
Speaker 2: Let's go three and now.

1472
01:15:53,560 --> 01:15:55,639
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1473
01:15:56,720 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 2: All right, first down. There's no Friday nights because we

1474
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:01,160
Speaker 2: already talked about a ton Friday gainst. But there's Thursday

1475
01:16:01,240 --> 01:16:04,880
Speaker 2: night fights we have, as we do every year, the

1476
01:16:04,920 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 2: annual tradition of the Egg Bowl. Alma s I s

1477
01:16:14,080 --> 01:16:20,080
Speaker 2: s I y Ole Miss taking on Mississippi State, Ole

1478
01:16:20,160 --> 01:16:22,880
Speaker 2: Miss sitting around a ten point favorite here over under

1479
01:16:23,000 --> 01:16:25,800
Speaker 2: fifty five and a half. I don't have a strong fire.

1480
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:28,320
Speaker 2: I mean Missisippi State. I don't know missigp State's were

1481
01:16:28,360 --> 01:16:33,040
Speaker 2: going to get stops. Their defense is so bad, especially

1482
01:16:33,120 --> 01:16:36,760
Speaker 2: on the back end. You know, their offense now got

1483
01:16:36,800 --> 01:16:39,400
Speaker 2: Will Rogers back, it has a little bit more life

1484
01:16:40,200 --> 01:16:44,479
Speaker 2: through the air. Might lean over here, but I don't

1485
01:16:44,520 --> 01:16:45,240
Speaker 2: have a strong feel.

1486
01:16:45,840 --> 01:16:48,000
Speaker 1: I took the under. Yeah, I took the under my

1487
01:16:48,040 --> 01:16:49,640
Speaker 1: first take on fifty six and a half. But I

1488
01:16:49,920 --> 01:16:51,479
Speaker 1: think we're probably going to get to fifty five or

1489
01:16:51,560 --> 01:16:54,760
Speaker 1: lower by the time we get to kick. There was

1490
01:16:54,800 --> 01:16:56,880
Speaker 1: a massive amount of money that came in on Mississippi

1491
01:16:56,880 --> 01:16:59,479
Speaker 1: State that moved the point spread from thirteen and a

1492
01:16:59,479 --> 01:17:02,639
Speaker 1: half up to eight eighteen against Southern Miss. They ended

1493
01:17:02,720 --> 01:17:06,960
Speaker 1: up covering that game because of a pick six loops. Yeah,

1494
01:17:07,040 --> 01:17:09,360
Speaker 1: there was. It wasn't a real box score. I mean,

1495
01:17:09,400 --> 01:17:13,719
Speaker 1: the Mississipi State offense didn't do anything to deserve that victory.

1496
01:17:13,840 --> 01:17:16,720
Speaker 1: Will Rodgers came back, there were six drops. He was

1497
01:17:16,760 --> 01:17:19,080
Speaker 1: twelve to twenty seven passing. Obviously, there is a lot

1498
01:17:19,120 --> 01:17:23,120
Speaker 1: of russ there. You know, Ole Miss they run a

1499
01:17:23,200 --> 01:17:25,880
Speaker 1: pretty light box nickel two or three down linemen, but

1500
01:17:25,920 --> 01:17:28,200
Speaker 1: they're below national average success rate and a lot of

1501
01:17:28,240 --> 01:17:30,439
Speaker 1: the things Mississippi State wants to do from a passing

1502
01:17:30,520 --> 01:17:34,320
Speaker 1: perspective with Will Rogers. But can the Mississippi State defense

1503
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:36,920
Speaker 1: carry over the finishing drive success because they've been dead

1504
01:17:37,040 --> 01:17:39,920
Speaker 1: last like the entire nation when teams get into scoring position.

1505
01:17:40,600 --> 01:17:43,080
Speaker 1: Missisippi State's defense is the top fifty unit and defending

1506
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:45,439
Speaker 1: inside zone and power, which is what the primary run

1507
01:17:45,520 --> 01:17:48,759
Speaker 1: concept of Quinchawn Judkins is. And the defense is always

1508
01:17:48,800 --> 01:17:52,400
Speaker 1: a max protect But Dart's EPA advantages here, especially against

1509
01:17:52,479 --> 01:17:56,680
Speaker 1: quarters coverage high success rate, high EPA. I'm looking at

1510
01:17:56,800 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 1: under because of the pace Mississippi State wants to implement, Like,

1511
01:18:00,000 --> 01:18:01,640
Speaker 1: I don't expect a lot of success right for the

1512
01:18:01,640 --> 01:18:03,800
Speaker 1: Mississippi State ground game. I think there's gonna be a

1513
01:18:03,840 --> 01:18:06,680
Speaker 1: lot of limitations and explosives from then. Will Rogers is

1514
01:18:06,720 --> 01:18:09,080
Speaker 1: not in sync with his with his wide receivers. So

1515
01:18:09,240 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 1: for those reasons, I like the under. But from a

1516
01:18:11,360 --> 01:18:13,800
Speaker 1: side perspective, here we are again. The money is just

1517
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:18,880
Speaker 1: hammering Mississippi State. It. You know, it moved five point

1518
01:18:18,960 --> 01:18:21,439
Speaker 1: slast week in Southern miss and it got there because

1519
01:18:21,479 --> 01:18:24,680
Speaker 1: of some fluke pick sixes and special teams play. So

1520
01:18:25,479 --> 01:18:27,320
Speaker 1: I'm not a part I don't understand this team on

1521
01:18:27,320 --> 01:18:29,600
Speaker 1: Missippi State. The offense is just not there and it

1522
01:18:29,680 --> 01:18:31,920
Speaker 1: doesn't deserve to go this way. But I'll play the

1523
01:18:32,000 --> 01:18:34,240
Speaker 1: under Well, maybe I'll come back on old miss before kick.

1524
01:18:34,920 --> 01:18:36,880
Speaker 2: All Right, it should be fun and there should be

1525
01:18:36,880 --> 01:18:41,040
Speaker 2: shenanigans as always. It's a perfect game for Thanksgiving night.

1526
01:18:41,840 --> 01:18:45,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's be about a second down, and it's

1527
01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:46,839
Speaker 2: our favorite favorite.

1528
01:18:47,400 --> 01:18:49,000
Speaker 1: It's called the overdogs parlay.

1529
01:18:49,320 --> 01:18:52,680
Speaker 2: I will start. I'm gonna go Illinois like five and

1530
01:18:52,720 --> 01:18:56,080
Speaker 2: a half against Northwestern. By the way, Northwestern, I talked

1531
01:18:56,080 --> 01:18:58,639
Speaker 2: about some of the breaks they've gotten, some of their wins.

1532
01:19:00,160 --> 01:19:02,840
Speaker 2: Teams still negative zero point five net yards per play.

1533
01:19:03,560 --> 01:19:07,720
Speaker 2: They've also been very lucky. I mean you look, they

1534
01:19:07,760 --> 01:19:10,799
Speaker 2: have a plus eight turnover margin. They fumbled eleven times,

1535
01:19:10,920 --> 01:19:14,840
Speaker 2: they've lost one. Their two quarterbacks have sixteen touchdowns and

1536
01:19:14,920 --> 01:19:21,240
Speaker 2: six interceptions despite fourteen big time throws sixteen turnover worthy plays.

1537
01:19:21,880 --> 01:19:25,599
Speaker 2: They've also overperformed on late downs. There's regression coming. They've

1538
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:28,080
Speaker 2: been lucky. They're fat and happy. Now fat and happy

1539
01:19:28,160 --> 01:19:33,479
Speaker 2: cats in a ball got their coach Illinois fighting for

1540
01:19:33,600 --> 01:19:37,360
Speaker 2: Bowl eligibility. I think Illinois rolls. And no, we did

1541
01:19:37,439 --> 01:19:41,280
Speaker 2: not forget about Colin and Arkansas because his favorite favorite

1542
01:19:41,760 --> 01:19:42,719
Speaker 2: it's the Ducks.

1543
01:19:43,280 --> 01:19:45,040
Speaker 1: Woo pick suy.

1544
01:19:46,000 --> 01:19:48,599
Speaker 2: Absolute dumpster fined us. I don't know how we win

1545
01:19:48,640 --> 01:19:50,920
Speaker 2: a game the rest of the year, just blowing program up.

1546
01:19:51,000 --> 01:19:56,360
Speaker 1: Give us a death sentence, Collins talking razorback football. Is

1547
01:19:56,439 --> 01:19:59,000
Speaker 1: the Missouri Tigers coming down to Fayeville to get it done.

1548
01:19:59,000 --> 01:20:01,280
Speaker 1: I'll be happy be in Tendants to see the end

1549
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:04,400
Speaker 1: of this razorback season. I could go through a billion

1550
01:20:04,479 --> 01:20:07,200
Speaker 1: statistics about why Missouri is going to beat this team.

1551
01:20:07,200 --> 01:20:09,040
Speaker 1: Missouri has done their way to a New Year's Bowl game.

1552
01:20:09,400 --> 01:20:12,600
Speaker 1: Missouri is dominating people on offense. Cody Schrader got a

1553
01:20:12,640 --> 01:20:15,720
Speaker 1: little bit late start on his Heisman campaign. Brady Cook

1554
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:20,000
Speaker 1: has been fantastic. Missouri has been fantastic at every aspect. Now,

1555
01:20:20,080 --> 01:20:22,120
Speaker 1: let's talk about some things that aren't on the field.

1556
01:20:23,160 --> 01:20:25,679
Speaker 1: This is a really big game to Drink Quiz Drink

1557
01:20:25,960 --> 01:20:28,760
Speaker 1: is from the state of Arkansas. But he never got

1558
01:20:28,800 --> 01:20:31,360
Speaker 1: a sniff for the head coaching job. For you know,

1559
01:20:31,520 --> 01:20:34,000
Speaker 1: firing Chad Morris. All the times that we've had a vacancy,

1560
01:20:34,600 --> 01:20:37,200
Speaker 1: he wasn't on our list. There's a couple of jabs

1561
01:20:37,240 --> 01:20:39,960
Speaker 1: he's taken out Arkansas over the years, one of them

1562
01:20:40,320 --> 01:20:44,679
Speaker 1: being two years ago when asked about this borderline trophy.

1563
01:20:44,760 --> 01:20:47,479
Speaker 1: This made up, you know, rivalry that they put Arkansas

1564
01:20:47,520 --> 01:20:51,519
Speaker 1: in with Missouri. Drink said, this is only a rivalry

1565
01:20:51,560 --> 01:20:54,479
Speaker 1: when one team went when both teams win. Now that's

1566
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:57,720
Speaker 1: funny and true because Arkansas had never won since they

1567
01:20:57,720 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 1: implemented the trophy. Now, Arkansas did win it two years

1568
01:21:00,040 --> 01:21:02,160
Speaker 1: years ago, but then they lost it again last year.

1569
01:21:02,520 --> 01:21:05,240
Speaker 1: This rivalry means a lot to Drink wits, and it

1570
01:21:05,360 --> 01:21:07,920
Speaker 1: means a lot from a couple of perspectives. But it's personal.

1571
01:21:08,360 --> 01:21:11,080
Speaker 1: And the reason why it's personal is because his close

1572
01:21:11,120 --> 01:21:13,880
Speaker 1: friend is Gus Maleson and the way Gus Malason was

1573
01:21:13,880 --> 01:21:16,040
Speaker 1: treated in two thousand and six with the Springdale five

1574
01:21:16,400 --> 01:21:19,120
Speaker 1: Houston Nutt being run out of town as a high

1575
01:21:19,120 --> 01:21:21,599
Speaker 1: school coach, getting hired and then run out of town

1576
01:21:21,680 --> 01:21:24,280
Speaker 1: over to Tulsa to be their offensive coordinator. That didn't

1577
01:21:24,320 --> 01:21:27,240
Speaker 1: sit well with Drink at all. And Drink has from

1578
01:21:27,280 --> 01:21:30,200
Speaker 1: what I learned from SEC media days, he didn't take

1579
01:21:30,200 --> 01:21:32,519
Speaker 1: a phone call from Arkansas and he won't take a

1580
01:21:32,600 --> 01:21:34,920
Speaker 1: phone call from Arkansas because of the way the administration

1581
01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:37,960
Speaker 1: has treated Gus Malson over the years. A guy that

1582
01:21:38,120 --> 01:21:41,240
Speaker 1: was a high school coach in Northwest Arkansas was genuinely

1583
01:21:41,479 --> 01:21:44,320
Speaker 1: loved and admired in the state of Arkansas and just

1584
01:21:44,720 --> 01:21:48,880
Speaker 1: has gotten a raw deal Drink. It's personal. He's from here.

1585
01:21:49,880 --> 01:21:52,720
Speaker 1: He is not happy with the administration, and Missouri is

1586
01:21:52,760 --> 01:21:55,720
Speaker 1: not coming down to screw around against Arkansas. By the way,

1587
01:21:56,520 --> 01:21:59,360
Speaker 1: we're dead in the water. Every single player on this

1588
01:21:59,520 --> 01:22:02,400
Speaker 1: Arkansas is about to get into the transfer portal. They

1589
01:22:02,520 --> 01:22:05,080
Speaker 1: do not care about this game. They didn't care about

1590
01:22:05,080 --> 01:22:07,559
Speaker 1: Florida International because Piman came out and said, we're playing

1591
01:22:07,560 --> 01:22:09,400
Speaker 1: for pride. We're playing for pride. We got new clothes,

1592
01:22:09,680 --> 01:22:13,680
Speaker 1: new logos, knew everything. Couldn't even cover against Florida International,

1593
01:22:13,920 --> 01:22:15,720
Speaker 1: couldn't even sniff it till late in the game when

1594
01:22:15,760 --> 01:22:18,479
Speaker 1: they got an extra score. There is nothing about this

1595
01:22:18,680 --> 01:22:24,920
Speaker 1: team that cares about winning this trophy, beating Missouri, defending home.

1596
01:22:25,479 --> 01:22:27,320
Speaker 1: We need the end of the season to get here fast.

1597
01:22:27,800 --> 01:22:29,840
Speaker 1: But it's different when it comes to Drink. He wants

1598
01:22:29,880 --> 01:22:31,880
Speaker 1: to rub it in our face and he's gonna do it.

1599
01:22:32,360 --> 01:22:34,759
Speaker 1: Missouri's going to cover here easy, give.

1600
01:22:34,680 --> 01:22:36,640
Speaker 2: Him the death sentence all right before we got our

1601
01:22:36,680 --> 01:22:38,719
Speaker 2: one final test. That's our favorite money line.

1602
01:22:38,600 --> 01:22:44,880
Speaker 1: Underdogs turning good weekends into great weekends.

1603
01:22:45,560 --> 01:22:49,840
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line Parlay got a sweep

1604
01:22:49,960 --> 01:22:54,320
Speaker 2: last week. The formula take the Service Academy dog and

1605
01:22:54,479 --> 01:22:58,120
Speaker 2: fade the team that's a favored against the Service Academy.

1606
01:22:58,479 --> 01:23:02,760
Speaker 2: UNLB and Army both got home for us, so let's

1607
01:23:02,880 --> 01:23:05,559
Speaker 2: keep it going. I switched one up last second because

1608
01:23:05,640 --> 01:23:07,720
Speaker 2: you just gave you gave me the just you got

1609
01:23:07,800 --> 01:23:10,800
Speaker 2: me more excited about it. So boy, I'm going with

1610
01:23:10,880 --> 01:23:18,000
Speaker 2: the Brady Hope retirement party in Diego State. Fresno State

1611
01:23:18,120 --> 01:23:19,920
Speaker 2: is a good match of Foray present State can't take

1612
01:23:19,920 --> 01:23:24,040
Speaker 2: advantage of San Diego State's horrendous run defense, and I

1613
01:23:24,080 --> 01:23:27,040
Speaker 2: think Fresno State is just a dead man walking here

1614
01:23:27,120 --> 01:23:31,599
Speaker 2: after last week left tackle injuries. Also major San Diego

1615
01:23:31,640 --> 01:23:35,519
Speaker 2: State will show up here. For Hoke has always been

1616
01:23:35,560 --> 01:23:38,120
Speaker 2: good as a dog, always been good after a loss.

1617
01:23:38,240 --> 01:23:41,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me Maiden and the San Diego State

1618
01:23:41,479 --> 01:23:44,320
Speaker 2: team that's been really competitive if you just remove the

1619
01:23:44,439 --> 01:23:49,120
Speaker 2: elite rushing attacks national elite and Fresno State is certainly

1620
01:23:49,160 --> 01:23:51,560
Speaker 2: not one of those. So yeah, let's go with the

1621
01:23:51,920 --> 01:23:53,439
Speaker 2: hastas where you had it.

1622
01:23:54,200 --> 01:23:55,920
Speaker 1: Bre You Hope soon to be one to know in

1623
01:23:56,000 --> 01:23:58,880
Speaker 1: retirement games. I'm going to go to something dirty, dirty, dirty,

1624
01:23:59,000 --> 01:24:01,639
Speaker 1: real dirty. No one's gonna watch this game. No one's

1625
01:24:01,640 --> 01:24:04,360
Speaker 1: gonna care about this game. I'm gonna take Sam Houston

1626
01:24:04,520 --> 01:24:06,240
Speaker 1: winning outright against.

1627
01:24:05,960 --> 01:24:07,920
Speaker 2: Eat them ups. Listen.

1628
01:24:08,000 --> 01:24:10,240
Speaker 1: We talked about this all year. These teams that can't

1629
01:24:10,280 --> 01:24:14,320
Speaker 1: make a bowl are new to FBS that whatnot. This

1630
01:24:14,479 --> 01:24:16,280
Speaker 1: is their super Bowl. This is the biggest game of

1631
01:24:16,280 --> 01:24:18,479
Speaker 1: the year. It's the last one. They absolutely know there's

1632
01:24:18,520 --> 01:24:20,360
Speaker 1: finality to this now. Middle Tennessee is going to go

1633
01:24:20,400 --> 01:24:22,639
Speaker 1: on the road here. They also can't make a bowl,

1634
01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:25,879
Speaker 1: but this is the super Bowl for a sam Houston

1635
01:24:25,960 --> 01:24:29,000
Speaker 1: State team that won two straight and then got to

1636
01:24:29,120 --> 01:24:31,040
Speaker 1: the damn goal line. I had to have been a

1637
01:24:31,120 --> 01:24:34,120
Speaker 1: round robin got to the goal line with no time

1638
01:24:34,240 --> 01:24:37,559
Speaker 1: left against Western Kentucky and could not hit their man

1639
01:24:37,680 --> 01:24:40,280
Speaker 1: in the end zone to pull off a third straight win.

1640
01:24:40,360 --> 01:24:43,920
Speaker 1: This Sam Houston team is hot right now. The big

1641
01:24:43,960 --> 01:24:47,040
Speaker 1: difference here is tackling. Sam Houston's fifteenth in the nation,

1642
01:24:47,160 --> 01:24:49,519
Speaker 1: Middle Tennessee is one hundred and ninth. There are plenty

1643
01:24:49,560 --> 01:24:51,559
Speaker 1: of advantages for the Bearcats in their passing game from

1644
01:24:51,560 --> 01:24:54,400
Speaker 1: a success rate standpoint, and they are getting better and

1645
01:24:54,520 --> 01:24:57,360
Speaker 1: better week by week. Their red zone efficiency has massively

1646
01:24:57,439 --> 01:25:00,360
Speaker 1: improved over the two wins four point three p points

1647
01:25:00,479 --> 01:25:03,800
Speaker 1: per opportunity with finishing drives, that is, will above their

1648
01:25:03,880 --> 01:25:06,439
Speaker 1: season rank. They are getting better week by week. We're

1649
01:25:06,479 --> 01:25:08,600
Speaker 1: gonna take them here at home. Last game of the

1650
01:25:08,640 --> 01:25:11,439
Speaker 1: season is a new member of FBS going up against

1651
01:25:11,800 --> 01:25:15,120
Speaker 1: what should be a lifeless Middle Tennessee State team.

1652
01:25:15,560 --> 01:25:19,040
Speaker 2: Amazing, I like it, San Diego State and Sam Houston

1653
01:25:19,160 --> 01:25:21,679
Speaker 2: State for the final regular season.

1654
01:25:22,520 --> 01:25:24,000
Speaker 1: What podcast is bringing that to you?

1655
01:25:24,960 --> 01:25:27,519
Speaker 2: You gotta love it. And yeah, we will have one

1656
01:25:27,640 --> 01:25:31,439
Speaker 2: more round. We will have one more moneyline underdog piece

1657
01:25:31,560 --> 01:25:34,320
Speaker 2: for the entirety of bowl season. We'll each pick our

1658
01:25:34,360 --> 01:25:40,320
Speaker 2: favorite underdog. Stay tuned for our schedule there next week,

1659
01:25:40,920 --> 01:25:45,360
Speaker 2: smaller slate, but we'll be doing deep dives on every

1660
01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:51,000
Speaker 2: single conference championship game. Got two on Friday, eight on Saturday,

1661
01:25:51,520 --> 01:25:55,280
Speaker 2: we'll dive into each and every one. Also, make sure

1662
01:25:55,280 --> 01:25:56,920
Speaker 2: you check out the Group of Five guys. The episode

1663
01:25:57,000 --> 01:25:59,160
Speaker 2: is out now. Yeah, Group of five, they'll have their

1664
01:25:59,160 --> 01:26:02,160
Speaker 2: episode out. Hopefully we get an SMU and Miami Ohio

1665
01:26:02,520 --> 01:26:06,360
Speaker 2: to the window. But thanks for listening, Happy Thanksgiving once again,

1666
01:26:06,400 --> 01:26:08,360
Speaker 2: thanks for joining me contentst our producer on the back end.

1667
01:26:08,400 --> 01:26:10,679
Speaker 2: Most importantly, thanks to all of you for supporting the show.

1668
01:26:11,040 --> 01:26:14,080
Speaker 2: Hope you have a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Don't forget

1669
01:26:14,120 --> 01:26:16,080
Speaker 2: subscribe on Subscribe. Subscribe to our friend too and Honde

1670
01:26:16,080 --> 01:26:18,160
Speaker 2: Mean lead review five star reviews. They really help us

1671
01:26:18,200 --> 01:26:23,080
Speaker 2: out do some giveaways on the recap show nine to

1672
01:26:23,120 --> 01:26:25,800
Speaker 2: five nine Bad Beat. Don't care about the voicemail. We

1673
01:26:25,960 --> 01:26:29,680
Speaker 2: will be back with the recap normal recap show on

1674
01:26:30,080 --> 01:26:34,280
Speaker 2: Monday morning. Good luck on all of your wagers this weekend.

1675
01:26:34,479 --> 01:26:38,240
Speaker 2: Let's close the gear strong and we'll see you on

1676
01:26:38,320 --> 01:26:39,360
Speaker 2: the weekend. Cheers.

1677
01:26:39,960 --> 01:26:56,120
Speaker 1: Peace Out Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1678
01:26:56,160 --> 01:26:58,719
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1679
01:26:59,040 --> 01:27:02,040
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

1680
01:27:02,080 --> 01:27:02,479
Speaker 1: Gambler