1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,360
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

2
00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:04,280
Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

3
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,200
Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work.

4
00:00:07,320 --> 00:00:11,920
Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC.

5
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,800
Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions

6
00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:18,400
Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of

7
00:00:18,440 --> 00:00:20,720
Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the

8
00:00:20,760 --> 00:00:24,000
Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. Become a Breaking

9
00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:26,560
Speaker 1: Points Premium Member today, where you get to watch and

10
00:00:26,680 --> 00:00:29,640
Speaker 1: listen to the entire show ad free and uncut, an

11
00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,479
Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

12
00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,360
Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

13
00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,960
Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

14
00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:41,080
Speaker 1: hear our annoying voices pitching you like I am right now?

15
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,320
Speaker 1: So what are you waiting for? Go to Breakingpoints dot

16
00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:46,120
Speaker 1: com become a Premium member today, which is available in

17
00:00:46,159 --> 00:01:05,880
Speaker 1: the show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody,

18
00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,479
Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

19
00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:10,480
Speaker 1: What are we have personal? Indeed, we do lots of

20
00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,199
Speaker 1: breaking news and big developments to get you to get

21
00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:16,199
Speaker 1: to you this morning. Of course, the latest coming out

22
00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 1: of Ukraine. Also missiles fired towards our consulate in the

23
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 1: Iraqi city of Urbil Irani and nash Revolutionary Guard taking

24
00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:28,040
Speaker 1: credit for that, so we'll talk to you about that.

25
00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: In the Iran nuclear deal, the latest polling how the

26
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,520
Speaker 1: American public is feeling about our response to what is

27
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,080
Speaker 1: going on in Ukraine. Also the very latest from the

28
00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:42,320
Speaker 1: US side on censorship, just some really outrageous stuff banning

29
00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,760
Speaker 1: and taking things down and kicking out, you know, Russian

30
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 1: pianists from concerts. Just wild stuff that's going on right

31
00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,919
Speaker 1: now as part of this mania around the war. Also

32
00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:57,760
Speaker 1: Facebook changing their policies in these couple of very specific

33
00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:02,360
Speaker 1: ways to allow threats of violence just against Russian soldiers,

34
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:08,079
Speaker 1: and also praise of the neo Nazi affiliated Azov Battalion,

35
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:10,480
Speaker 1: which was previously banned. We'll talk to you about that.

36
00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 1: We also have a first time guest on the show

37
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 1: and Economists who has a plan that is meant to

38
00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,800
Speaker 1: reduce gas prices in the short term, So excited to

39
00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,480
Speaker 1: talk to him as well. But we want to start

40
00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,480
Speaker 1: with the very latest on the ground in Ukraine. Let's

41
00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:25,639
Speaker 1: go ahead and start where we have been starting four

42
00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,720
Speaker 1: weeks now with the simtak map of where fighting is occurring.

43
00:02:29,760 --> 00:02:32,320
Speaker 1: Put that up on the screen. I mean, we continue

44
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,360
Speaker 1: to be in this sort of grinding, horrible status quo.

45
00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:40,079
Speaker 1: Russia is still struggling to make advances. They have made

46
00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,640
Speaker 1: the most advances in the south and the east. That

47
00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:47,480
Speaker 1: is where the sort of most aggressive fighting has been. However,

48
00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,240
Speaker 1: there are reports this morning that there was shelling in

49
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,760
Speaker 1: the actual city of Kiev, that is, of course the

50
00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:56,760
Speaker 1: capital city. They're in the north and that would indicate

51
00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,200
Speaker 1: that they are coming closer to city center when they've

52
00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,239
Speaker 1: been stuck fighting in the suburbs for quite a while. Now,

53
00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and put this next piece up on

54
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 1: the screen. This is a tweet or a tear sheet

55
00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:12,280
Speaker 1: from Sky News about the mayor of Malita Paul. That

56
00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,839
Speaker 1: is one of the few major cities that Russia has

57
00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,440
Speaker 1: been able to fully sort of capture and take control of.

58
00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:22,639
Speaker 1: There is footage circulating that purports to be the former

59
00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:26,120
Speaker 1: mayor current mayor of that city having a bag put

60
00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:30,400
Speaker 1: over his head and being kidnapped by Russian forces. Ukrainians

61
00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:33,079
Speaker 1: are saying that they are feared that he is being

62
00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:37,280
Speaker 1: tortured right now they have Russians have installed this new

63
00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,600
Speaker 1: sort of puppet mayor, someone who previously had been in

64
00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:41,960
Speaker 1: the city and was known to be like a Russian

65
00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:45,960
Speaker 1: affiliated politician, and she is telling the citizens of that

66
00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:49,360
Speaker 1: city that they need to stop fighting and quote accept

67
00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:55,240
Speaker 1: the new reality. So this is a grim, grim new development.

68
00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:58,120
Speaker 1: This is the first government official that we have seen

69
00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,120
Speaker 1: that we know of who has been awardedly kidnapped in

70
00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:06,320
Speaker 1: this manner. The other situation that is continuing to unfold

71
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 1: is the city of Mariopaul is in just absolute dire straits.

72
00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 1: That's gone and put this New York Times tear sheet

73
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,719
Speaker 1: up on the screen. At least two and eighty seven

74
00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 1: people in that city have died since the start of

75
00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,520
Speaker 1: the war. The Red Cross is warning that time is

76
00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,960
Speaker 1: running out. Mariopaul has been basically under a siege by

77
00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 1: Russian forces. They have no water, they have no food,

78
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,039
Speaker 1: they have no electricity, they have no heat, and it

79
00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,279
Speaker 1: is still very very cold there. There are hundreds of

80
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 1: thousands of people who are stuck in this city. This

81
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: has been a place that you know, they've tried multiple

82
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:45,360
Speaker 1: times to establish humanitarian corridors so that people could flee.

83
00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,479
Speaker 1: Every single time, those corridors have failed, so people have

84
00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:51,080
Speaker 1: been unable to get out now for quite a while.

85
00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 1: And what eyewitnesses there on the ground Sagar are saying

86
00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: is that it is just an absolutely apocalyptic landscape. You

87
00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,239
Speaker 1: see bodies left in the street. People are dying because

88
00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:07,159
Speaker 1: they are lacking medicine. Everything is running short. There is

89
00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:10,040
Speaker 1: no food getting into that city. I saw just this

90
00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,560
Speaker 1: morning that the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelenski, was saying

91
00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:15,520
Speaker 1: they have a convoy of food and aid that they

92
00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:18,359
Speaker 1: are trying to get there, but it's impossible at this

93
00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,960
Speaker 1: time because the roads are completely blocked in the city

94
00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 1: under siege. So this is just one of the humanitarian

95
00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,279
Speaker 1: catastrophes that is unfolding right now in Ukraine. So there's

96
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,440
Speaker 1: a couple things there with the mayor, that's very much

97
00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,479
Speaker 1: of a preview of what is to come if we

98
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:34,279
Speaker 1: do have occupation. So that's they're going to face a problem,

99
00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:36,400
Speaker 1: which is a hostile population. They're going to try and

100
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,200
Speaker 1: install their own officials. It just remains to be seen

101
00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,599
Speaker 1: whether the population is compliant, how much of it is

102
00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:43,840
Speaker 1: actually Russian. And then off top of that, they're going

103
00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:46,200
Speaker 1: to remember what the conditions of a siege are like

104
00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,120
Speaker 1: like we're seeing right now in Mariopaul. So that's obviously

105
00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 1: a huge problem, and we need to establish humanitarian corridors.

106
00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,159
Speaker 1: In terms of who keeps violating these ceasefires is very

107
00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:58,599
Speaker 1: difficult in order to tell, you know, obviously propaganda flying

108
00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 1: around on both sides. The end result, though, is that

109
00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 1: a large population of civilians are suffering more trapped inside

110
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,000
Speaker 1: of these cities. And just as a signal of what

111
00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,000
Speaker 1: we've been warning here, which is that the campaign is

112
00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:13,080
Speaker 1: going to ramp up, and let's go ahead and put

113
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,839
Speaker 1: this tweet up there on the screen, there were reports

114
00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,440
Speaker 1: in a video actually released by Chechen leader Ramzan Kadirov,

115
00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,960
Speaker 1: he appears to have arrived outside of the city of

116
00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,920
Speaker 1: Kiev in order to bolster and talk to some Chechen

117
00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:28,279
Speaker 1: special forces who are fighting in and around that city.

118
00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:33,440
Speaker 1: Given mister Khdirov's record inside of Chechnya and also the

119
00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,960
Speaker 1: Chechen civil War, and he is kind of seen as

120
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,280
Speaker 1: the attack dog of Vladimir Putin, He's already put out

121
00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,800
Speaker 1: a video saying, hey, you know, Zelensky, you need to

122
00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,080
Speaker 1: step down and apologize to Putin, you need to give up.

123
00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:49,120
Speaker 1: He's kind of seen as the harbinger of the most

124
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:54,120
Speaker 1: harsh tactics of the Russian military very much unfortunately, probably

125
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,320
Speaker 1: coming to a city near you, and that brings us

126
00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:01,400
Speaker 1: to the final escalation really in the campaign. Let's put

127
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,719
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. The most significant strike

128
00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:09,360
Speaker 1: was a Russian air strike right along the western Ukrainian

129
00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,480
Speaker 1: border near Poland on a base that had been receiving

130
00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:18,760
Speaker 1: Western military aid. So that is an incredibly significant move, Crystal,

131
00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 1: because it signals that, as we're about to get to

132
00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:27,320
Speaker 1: in our next segment, they consider Western military aid shipments

133
00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:31,560
Speaker 1: to be quote legitimate targets. But more so this strike,

134
00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:34,320
Speaker 1: which was only fifteen kilometers from the Polish border, something

135
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,040
Speaker 1: like ten miles or so from right there is a

136
00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,280
Speaker 1: direct sign of hey, we're coming for you. And right

137
00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,160
Speaker 1: now a lot of the Western aid workers, journalists and

138
00:07:43,200 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 1: everybody they're in the city of Levov and Levov I

139
00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:51,040
Speaker 1: just saw today is wrapping statues, they are preparing stained

140
00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 1: glass windows, synagogues and elsewhere are all boarding up because

141
00:07:54,880 --> 00:07:57,760
Speaker 1: they are preparing for a full blown onslaught. That Russian

142
00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,400
Speaker 1: strike and their capability to launch miss into the western

143
00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,679
Speaker 1: part of the country is a signal, hey, nowhere is safe.

144
00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,440
Speaker 1: And by the way, West, if you guys are going

145
00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,080
Speaker 1: to ship military equipment here, we're going to blow the

146
00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:13,040
Speaker 1: hell out of it. Yeah, let's be clear. This is

147
00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:16,760
Speaker 1: right on NATO's doorstep. Yeah right, I mean miles away.

148
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,400
Speaker 1: And this center, it's known as the International Peacekeeping and

149
00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,960
Speaker 1: Security Center, long been used to train Ukrainian military personnel,

150
00:08:26,080 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 1: often with instructors from the US and from other NATO countries.

151
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 1: It's hosted international NATO drills. Reported thirty five people dead

152
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:38,880
Speaker 1: in these strikes. Ukrainian said they were able to shoot

153
00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:41,240
Speaker 1: down some of the incoming missiles, but certainly some of

154
00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 1: these missiles found their targets. And it represents a significant escalation.

155
00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:51,800
Speaker 1: And as we keep tracking, inching closer and closer and

156
00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:56,640
Speaker 1: closer to direct conflict between Russia and NATO countries. So

157
00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,920
Speaker 1: this is one more extremely significant escalation. And let's go

158
00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,400
Speaker 1: and transition to the next piece here, because these all

159
00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:07,520
Speaker 1: fit together. Put that Guardian tear sheet up on the screen.

160
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:13,319
Speaker 1: Russia's deputy foreign minister is saying that the Russians will

161
00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,720
Speaker 1: treat arm shipments to Ukraine from NATO countries as quote

162
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 1: legitimate targets for military action in what The Guardian and

163
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,199
Speaker 1: every other news source I saw described as a dangerous

164
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:29,840
Speaker 1: new escalation of tensions. They said Russia had quote warned

165
00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:33,360
Speaker 1: the US that pumping weapons from a number of countries

166
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,600
Speaker 1: it orchestrates isn't just a dangerous move, it's an action

167
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:43,120
Speaker 1: that makes those convoys legitimate targets. Again, why this is

168
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,000
Speaker 1: so significant is because you're talking about inching closer and

169
00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:52,320
Speaker 1: closer to direct conflict between NATO countries and the US

170
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:56,280
Speaker 1: specifically and Russia, and that is an utter disaster. This

171
00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:59,240
Speaker 1: comes on top, of course of Russia saying that our

172
00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 1: economics warfare is considered they consider it an act of war.

173
00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,480
Speaker 1: So we have been trying to walk right up to

174
00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:10,600
Speaker 1: the line and not over of being a co combatant

175
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 1: in this conflict, and Russia is laying down their lines

176
00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,479
Speaker 1: of what that actually means in saying, if you continue

177
00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,760
Speaker 1: to ship in those javelin missiles and everything else that

178
00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,320
Speaker 1: you're doing, we are going to consider those legitimate targets

179
00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,360
Speaker 1: of attack and we will go after them. So then

180
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,600
Speaker 1: immediately after they say that, that's when they strike this

181
00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:37,000
Speaker 1: base miles from the border of Poland, again showing that

182
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,400
Speaker 1: they are very serious about this new line and rhetoric

183
00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:42,959
Speaker 1: that they're drawing. Yeah, I mean, you know, this strike

184
00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:46,079
Speaker 1: is a direct kind of middle finger to the West,

185
00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:49,000
Speaker 1: with a direct acknowledgement that you're playing with fire here

186
00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,160
Speaker 1: and if you continue to ship military aid, we are

187
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,760
Speaker 1: going to consider it a legitimate target. And by the way,

188
00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:56,720
Speaker 1: if your soldiers happen to be in it or something

189
00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,720
Speaker 1: like that, that's on you, which again brings us to light.

190
00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,120
Speaker 1: Remember that we all brought you that story of the

191
00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:05,240
Speaker 1: fighter jets, and this was very important because we tried

192
00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 1: to pressure the Poles and the Romanians to transfer these

193
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:13,080
Speaker 1: meg fighters from their territory to Ukraine, and the Poles

194
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,000
Speaker 1: in the Romanians were like, no, we're not doing that

195
00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: because they're NATO countries and because they understood that doing

196
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 1: so would mark a significant escalation. The other problem is

197
00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,360
Speaker 1: how do you get them there. You need a Polish

198
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:27,320
Speaker 1: fighter to you know, a NATO, a NATO pilot to

199
00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,560
Speaker 1: fly into Ukrainian hot airsprace, which is contested with Russia. Oh,

200
00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,600
Speaker 1: what could go wrong. The Poles, then, bowing to US

201
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:38,079
Speaker 1: diplomatic pressure, were like, Okay, here's what we'll do. We'll

202
00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:40,680
Speaker 1: take the fighters and we'll fly them to Ramstein Air

203
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,240
Speaker 1: Force Base and then you can fly them from Ramsteinn

204
00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,880
Speaker 1: Air Force Base in Germany by a US pilot into Ukraine.

205
00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 1: And Biden was like, We're not doing that. Now. There

206
00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 1: were people in his administration, including Blanket yes, who wanted

207
00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,280
Speaker 1: them him to take that deal, and also reportedly Poland

208
00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:02,000
Speaker 1: actually wanted them to do that. And so I mean, listen,

209
00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,120
Speaker 1: we're plenty critical of Biden here and some of the

210
00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,760
Speaker 1: actions he's taken in this war, but at least according

211
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:08,680
Speaker 1: to the reporting, he was the one with the cool

212
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,960
Speaker 1: head to say absolutely not, we are not doing this

213
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 1: is a key part of my monologue. We are only

214
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,560
Speaker 1: an aged seventy nine year old heartbeat away from a

215
00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,000
Speaker 1: full blown confrontation with Russia. And this is exact Kamala Harrison,

216
00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:22,760
Speaker 1: super cool under pressure. Yeah, well, you know, she's got

217
00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,680
Speaker 1: a great diplomatic track record abroad, and this is part

218
00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,959
Speaker 1: of the Hey, listen, as we cover this weekend, women can,

219
00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,560
Speaker 1: in fact and do start wars, So that is not

220
00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:33,760
Speaker 1: something that is outside of the realm of possibility. At

221
00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:35,520
Speaker 1: the same time, let's gohead and put this up there

222
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:37,960
Speaker 1: on the screen. Another aggressive move by the Russians and

223
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,560
Speaker 1: another line in the sand. They went ahead and struck

224
00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:43,720
Speaker 1: a facility where they claim one hundred and eighty foreign

225
00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:48,040
Speaker 1: mercenaries were killed, and they also destroyed a large amount

226
00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:51,679
Speaker 1: of foreign weapons. This matters because there's been a string

227
00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,959
Speaker 1: of foreign mercenaries. It's hard to tell exactly how many

228
00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:59,000
Speaker 1: there are some, you know, people from Sweden, people from Poland, Romania,

229
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,000
Speaker 1: the United States, all across kind of the Allied West

230
00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,560
Speaker 1: who are flooding into Ukraine. Some of this is just LARPing.

231
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:08,000
Speaker 1: Some of it is real in terms of what these

232
00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:11,040
Speaker 1: mercenaries are, but they are being very much put on

233
00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 1: notice by the Russians. They're like, hey, we're gonna kill

234
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,080
Speaker 1: you like you are in now a active hot war zone.

235
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,040
Speaker 1: There's also been some talk on the Russian side where

236
00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,040
Speaker 1: this also shows some hypocrisy. They're like, hey, it's illegal

237
00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,840
Speaker 1: to have foreign mercenaries, and then they broadcast something from

238
00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 1: Russia where they said, oh, but mister president putin, there

239
00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,319
Speaker 1: are people from around the world who want to support

240
00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:33,840
Speaker 1: our forces in Russian He's like, well, maybe we'll give

241
00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:37,200
Speaker 1: them airplanes. So yeah, a lot of those people are

242
00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,320
Speaker 1: you know, they consider themselves brothers in arms from the

243
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,400
Speaker 1: Assyrian Civil War, so a lot of pro Asad forces

244
00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:46,800
Speaker 1: who you know, obviously they owe their lives and their

245
00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,200
Speaker 1: entire military success to the Russian military, are now putting on.

246
00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,160
Speaker 1: It's hard to tell how much of an AstroTurf or not,

247
00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:54,480
Speaker 1: but I mean, I guess I could see it, you know, both.

248
00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 1: But there are possibly Syrians that could be flying on

249
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,520
Speaker 1: Russian planes to come and fight now in this conflict.

250
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:07,200
Speaker 1: Which the more that we allow this to happen, and

251
00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:09,720
Speaker 1: I'm not saying we should do anything about it, like militarily,

252
00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,319
Speaker 1: but the more this conflict drags on, this is the

253
00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 1: same thing that happened in the Syrian Civil War. First

254
00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,720
Speaker 1: it was between Syrians. Then you get all these Arabs

255
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,240
Speaker 1: start coming in, all this Katari money in the Saudi money,

256
00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,760
Speaker 1: Libyan arms. I mean, if we start seeing you know,

257
00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 1: now we got the Chechen guy in there, so now

258
00:14:23,880 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 1: we've got Chechens coming in, and then you have these

259
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,720
Speaker 1: Syrian forces coming in and then foreign mercenaries on the

260
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:34,040
Speaker 1: western side. This is all a global conflagration waiting to happen.

261
00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:36,360
Speaker 1: And you know, it only takes one death here in

262
00:14:36,360 --> 00:14:39,360
Speaker 1: the United States or one miscalculation in order for the

263
00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:42,920
Speaker 1: whole situation to go completely sideways. So I'm not gonna lie.

264
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,880
Speaker 1: I'm pretty scared about this whole situation. That's that's very true,

265
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:47,880
Speaker 1: and actually in Syria, and this could be the case

266
00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:51,440
Speaker 1: ultimately in Ukraine, and there's some indication that this is possible.

267
00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:53,680
Speaker 1: In Syria. You actually had Chechens fighting on both of them.

268
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,080
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yes, had Chechens isis right of the most

269
00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,720
Speaker 1: allied with the Russians. You were Chechens who were allied

270
00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 1: based with ices who are you know, also Islamus who

271
00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,080
Speaker 1: are fighting against Russia because that's their big enemy. And

272
00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,840
Speaker 1: so you can easily see how this spins out of

273
00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,800
Speaker 1: control with all of these people flooding in and then

274
00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:16,840
Speaker 1: you add into the mix our massive indiscriminate flow of

275
00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:20,000
Speaker 1: weapons into the country which happened like this. And I

276
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 1: know that we've talked to you about this a number

277
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,480
Speaker 1: of times, but I really don't think we can emphasize

278
00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 1: enough just how much we have flooded the zone in

279
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,440
Speaker 1: near days and now weeks of time. Let's put that

280
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 1: New York Times tearsheet up on the screen. They called

281
00:15:36,440 --> 00:15:39,520
Speaker 1: this comparable to the Berlin Airlift two point zero. That

282
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,880
Speaker 1: is the scale and scope of just how much we

283
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:48,080
Speaker 1: have flooded seventeen thousand anti tank weapons, including javelin missiles,

284
00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,600
Speaker 1: in less than a week over the borders of Poland

285
00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 1: and Romania. For comparison, back in the summer, when a

286
00:15:57,800 --> 00:16:00,840
Speaker 1: sixty million dollar arms package you crane was approved, it

287
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,720
Speaker 1: took months to get that in. It was approved in August,

288
00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,840
Speaker 1: that was not fulfilled until November. But when the President

289
00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,800
Speaker 1: approved three hundred and fifty million, so a lot more

290
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 1: than sixty million in military eight on February twenty six,

291
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:17,560
Speaker 1: it took only five days until the overwhelming majority of

292
00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 1: that was put in. So we have really just decided

293
00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 1: to completely throw any caution to the wind. Thank goodness,

294
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,560
Speaker 1: they decided not to go through with that absolutely foolish scheme.

295
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,520
Speaker 1: Regarding fighter jets, you still have lots of politicians who

296
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 1: are out there saber rattling Tom Cotton and others pushing

297
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 1: for US to get fighter jets to the Ukrainians, ignoring

298
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,840
Speaker 1: what a potentially disastrous decision that would ultimately be. And

299
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,160
Speaker 1: now you're starting to see We've always said the question

300
00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,920
Speaker 1: is what will Russia's response be, And we're starting to

301
00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,720
Speaker 1: see the way that they are treating this and viewing

302
00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 1: this and saying that these will be legitimate targets for

303
00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 1: their attack. I think they're probably drawing a line in

304
00:16:58,120 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 1: the sand because they can see this big conversation happening

305
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,119
Speaker 1: in the West. I mean, they're not stupid. They watched

306
00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:06,880
Speaker 1: the debates and the diplomacy and the back and forth,

307
00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:08,880
Speaker 1: and they're like, hey, one way in order to deter

308
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,040
Speaker 1: further military aid is to bomb military aid and consider

309
00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:14,800
Speaker 1: it a hot target. That's the other thing, which is

310
00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 1: do not underestimate there are a lot of Americans right

311
00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,119
Speaker 1: now in the city of Lavov. I actually have a

312
00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:21,159
Speaker 1: friend who's in the city of Levov as a journalist

313
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 1: and he's reporting from there. And apparently the coffee shops,

314
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 1: cafes and all the place with Wi Fi basically are

315
00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,200
Speaker 1: all just foreigners. And so if this place becomes a

316
00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:32,840
Speaker 1: hot war zone, I mean, this again has a serious escalation.

317
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:37,119
Speaker 1: We mentioned there was also an American journalist who was

318
00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: killed near the front line. Now, to be clear, nobody

319
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,160
Speaker 1: knows who shot this guy. They claimed it was the Russians.

320
00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 1: We don't know. Ukrainian forces were also in the area

321
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 1: at the time he was killed. I think he was

322
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,920
Speaker 1: shot in the neck and his partner cameraman was shot

323
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,840
Speaker 1: as well. He's survived, at least for now, and I

324
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:57,119
Speaker 1: hope he continues to do well. But the more that

325
00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,919
Speaker 1: we have those types of incidents, we should not forget.

326
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 1: One of the impetuses for US involvement in Syria and

327
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 1: the civil war was when one of our American journalists

328
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: had his head cut off, right, That is what really

329
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 1: brought America into that conflict. So foreign aid workers, journalists

330
00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 1: and others, if they're going to be in this city

331
00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 1: which is receiving tons and tons of military aid from

332
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 1: the West, and now the Russians are making it very clear, Hey,

333
00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,960
Speaker 1: we're going to bomb the hell out of you. While

334
00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:29,680
Speaker 1: this happens again, you see a glimpse of where escalation

335
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,679
Speaker 1: could come from. So you put all this together, the

336
00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:35,440
Speaker 1: amount of weapons that are flowing into the country, new

337
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 1: diplomatic you know, wrangling over what. By the way, I

338
00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 1: don't think these MiGs are still out of the question.

339
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 1: I think I think it could still happen. And I

340
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,479
Speaker 1: think know NATO and Germany and all of them are

341
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,040
Speaker 1: going to be pressuring us very hard. It just goes

342
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: to show you, though, that they forget. Look, it doesn't

343
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,200
Speaker 1: matter if the Poles get attacked, we go to war.

344
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,360
Speaker 1: If we get attacked, the Poles go to war. We're

345
00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:57,240
Speaker 1: all in this in terms of NATO. It's a trip

346
00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:00,239
Speaker 1: wire for a reason in terms of Article five. So

347
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 1: the debates around all of this are getting very, very

348
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,960
Speaker 1: close to the line. The Russians are making it clear

349
00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:11,119
Speaker 1: that they are in a dire military situation, and I

350
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,199
Speaker 1: guess we can go ahead and move on now to

351
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:17,359
Speaker 1: the diplomatic front, because this matters before we After we

352
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 1: cut the show, the most important thing that came out

353
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 1: was that Russia actually submitted crystal a formal military request

354
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:29,080
Speaker 1: to the Chinese government for military assistance. So this is

355
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,720
Speaker 1: the most outright ask that they've made so far of

356
00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,520
Speaker 1: the Chinese regime. They paired it with an ask that

357
00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 1: they also help them economically. Now, this is where all

358
00:19:39,560 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 1: eyes are in terms of the diplomatic front. Let's put

359
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. National Security Advisor Jake

360
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 1: Sullivan and China's Foreign Minister Yang Xishe will be discussing

361
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: Russia in Ukraine today in the city of Rome. For

362
00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: the quote regional and global security implications. All eyes are

363
00:19:57,080 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 1: on Beijing both in terms of these talks carefully worded statements,

364
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 1: and how they are going to respond here to the

365
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,160
Speaker 1: Russian request. Russia has really put China in a tight

366
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 1: spot because China's been trying to both sides this saying hey,

367
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,240
Speaker 1: well we want peace, and you know, they're very carefully

368
00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,640
Speaker 1: worded statements aimed at not antagonizing the Russians but also

369
00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,879
Speaker 1: not being seen as if they're fully on their side.

370
00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 1: Now they have to make a choice. Are we going

371
00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 1: to buy Russian oil? Number one? Are we going to

372
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:28,880
Speaker 1: bolster buy their wheat as well? And two are we

373
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 1: going to provide military assistance? It shows you also the

374
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 1: kind of the dire straits that the Russians are in.

375
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,480
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a great power military one month into frankly,

376
00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:42,000
Speaker 1: not that hot of a conflict relative to global security,

377
00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: and now they need military assistance. It's also possibly a

378
00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:49,120
Speaker 1: gamble in order to force Beijing to take a side here,

379
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,440
Speaker 1: and all eyes also are inside Beijing of what are

380
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 1: these people thinking? This was a very interesting article making

381
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:58,520
Speaker 1: the rounds here. Let's put it up there on the screen.

382
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: A scholar of afiliated with China's central government has given

383
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,480
Speaker 1: a critical take on Russia, suggesting that it is time

384
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 1: for Beijing to cut ties with Putin. Now, let's be

385
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 1: very clear here. This article he was written by Whu Way.

386
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 1: He's the vice chairman of the Public Policy Research Center

387
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 1: of the Counselor's Office of the State Council, the chairman

388
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 1: of the Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, and more. He's

389
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 1: an important figure inside of China. That being said, sometimes

390
00:21:25,880 --> 00:21:28,480
Speaker 1: they translate stuff in English specifically to get us to

391
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:31,160
Speaker 1: talk about it, and I guess in that way they

392
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: have succeeded. However, we are trying to read the tea

393
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: leaves on the one side, the most hardcore propaganda Global

394
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 1: Times and more very very measured. Whenever it's coming to rush,

395
00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:45,480
Speaker 1: there's no calls for we need Chinese troops, we need

396
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 1: Chinese equipment flowing in to take on the Western imperialists.

397
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 1: So the absence of that call is itself something. And

398
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: then within the bounds of the debate, the fact that

399
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: this is also put out there in English. It could

400
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 1: be a way to bolster China's image the West, but

401
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: it also could be a legitimate signal to our foreign

402
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,399
Speaker 1: policy elite of hey, we kind of recognize this is crazy,

403
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,719
Speaker 1: like we want an off ramp on this too. So

404
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,919
Speaker 1: we'll see what comes out of this meeting within the

405
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 1: next two weeks. If they don't green light military assistance

406
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,879
Speaker 1: to the Russians, that in and of itself is a

407
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: very interesting sign about what's happening. Yeah, and we should

408
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,479
Speaker 1: also say both the Chinese and the Krumlin denied that that. Yeah, right,

409
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 1: So let's just put that out there. But what was

410
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 1: so interesting to me about this very well reasoned in

411
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: my opinion article, it was good put out, It was

412
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 1: quite well written, and it was quite well reasoned. And

413
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 1: what they effectively argue is that trying to play neutral

414
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 1: is not working. Playing neutral is being seen as taking

415
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: Russia's side, and now you are on the side of

416
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:53,159
Speaker 1: this basically pariaused state that is being completely isolated in

417
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 1: the world. This is ramping up tensions with the West

418
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: and with the US. This is giving them more incentive

419
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 1: to engage in this competition with Us that you know,

420
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: we're not really ready for and that we don't actually

421
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,400
Speaker 1: want right now in terms of like US also facing

422
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: some sort of global isolation, it's also sort of getting

423
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: Europe and the West act together so that they're all

424
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: on the same page. And so that was the bottom

425
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: line here, there's a line here that says China should

426
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up

427
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,959
Speaker 1: being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world.

428
00:23:32,359 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 1: At present, China has tried not to offend either side

429
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,880
Speaker 1: and walk to middle ground in its international statements and choices. However,

430
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: this physician position does not meet Russia's needs, and it

431
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers,

432
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 1: putting China on the wrong side of much of the world.

433
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: So this was pretty pretty interesting that they put this out.

434
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: You know, there's a couple other things regarding this meeting

435
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:02,760
Speaker 1: today between Jake's Jake Sullivan and Chinese officials, which is

436
00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 1: in addition to you know, whatever happens and whatever unfolds

437
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 1: and the pressure that is put on China with regards

438
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 1: to Russia and Ukraine. There's also the question of the

439
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 1: Iran nuclear deal that will be discussed as well, and

440
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 1: we're going to get to that in the next block,

441
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: and what exactly is going on there going in They've

442
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,439
Speaker 1: said there are really a lot of hope, there's not

443
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 1: really a lot of hope for a big breakthrough here.

444
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 1: They said this meeting is not about negotiating any specific

445
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,639
Speaker 1: issues or outcomes. It's taking place in the context of

446
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: Russia's unjustified in brutal war against Ukraine. This is from

447
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 1: US officials and as China has aligned itself with Russia

448
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: to advance their own vision of the world order. So

449
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:44,359
Speaker 1: they are setting expectations low. But you know, if there's

450
00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: going to be any path in the short term out

451
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 1: of the Russia Ukraine conflict, it's going to have to

452
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 1: involve China, at least behind the scenes, putting some pressure

453
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: on Russia and certainly denying them military aid. It is

454
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,199
Speaker 1: pretty extraordinary if it's true that Russia has had to

455
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: ask China for military aid, when typically the flow of

456
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,959
Speaker 1: arms goes in the other direction. It's usually the Chinese

457
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:12,679
Speaker 1: buying weapons from the Russians. So for them to have

458
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:14,719
Speaker 1: to come in this early on and say, hey, we

459
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: need some help here is rather extraordinary and rather selling Yeah.

460
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: Once again, I don't even know if they need the

461
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 1: military equipment. I think they're trying to force Beijing's hand

462
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 1: into make it some sort of like buy you know,

463
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 1: kind of a dual alliance against the West. But Beijing

464
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 1: doesn't want anything to do with that. They have a

465
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 1: lot more riding on the global economy and on trade

466
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: than anybody else. And if they have even one tenth

467
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: of the geopolitical isolation of Russia, their economy is dead.

468
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,199
Speaker 1: Something that we'll talk about certainly tomorrow, which is that

469
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,439
Speaker 1: the COVID zero lockdowns in Shenzhen are already going to

470
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 1: spike inflation here. So, by the way, if you want

471
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: a semiconductor or anything, good luck, because Apple just had

472
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,640
Speaker 1: to pause, just had to pause production at the fox

473
00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,120
Speaker 1: Con facility. COVID zero in China is literally going to

474
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 1: cripple the global economy. But that's another question for another day.

475
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: Just goes to show you about that. Yeah, we will

476
00:26:02,960 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: absolutely be talking about it tomorrow, but it just goes

477
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 1: to show that in China their economy is very precarious

478
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,560
Speaker 1: as well as a result of their COVID policy. Now,

479
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,120
Speaker 1: on the diplomatic front of Russia and Ukraine, let's put

480
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,679
Speaker 1: this up there. This is interesting. So in terms of

481
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 1: what Moscow is insisting, this is from commerceand Moscow insists

482
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: on Ukraine recognizing Crimea as Russia as the Lahanska and

483
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: the DNR as independent end quote neutrality for Kiev. Now

484
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 1: here's the key phrase we've talked about demilitarization. They say

485
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 1: no offensive weapons. Now that is a very interesting phase.

486
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: Not demilitarization, no offensive weapons. What they mean by that

487
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 1: almost certainly are the anti ballistic missile systems that we

488
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 1: have in Poland, as well as obviously nuclear weapons. So

489
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,719
Speaker 1: by reigning in, at least publicly in terms of what

490
00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: their demands are, not full scale demilitarization, but instead no

491
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 1: offensive weapons and also not joining any EU or NATO block,

492
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 1: that is a pretty significant change in the Russian posture.

493
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,800
Speaker 1: How that works out in practice obviously a huge question.

494
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:19,600
Speaker 1: Zelenski still rejecting it, but apparently they could be considering it.

495
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: And also the political regime that gets to stay in

496
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: charge of Ukraine. Who knows right? All of those questions remain.

497
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that this is a chance in hell,

498
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: but it is a change in the Russian posture. And

499
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 1: on the same side, let's put this up there in

500
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: terms of what's happening, there is a tentative, tentative sign

501
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: of peace talks. Russian MP Leonid Sletsky says that there

502
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: is a quote substantial progress that in the coming days

503
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 1: could turn into a unified position of both delegations and

504
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: documents ready for signing. That's from Russian state media. Once again,

505
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: he's a Russian MP. He's not the Russian foreign minister.

506
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: He's not the Ukrainian foreign minister. We have no idea

507
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: whether any of that it's actually happening or not, but

508
00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 1: this is what they are saying to their domestic populace

509
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: in state media. I don't think they would do so

510
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 1: if there was absolutely nothing whenever it came to the

511
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 1: actual negotiations themselves. And it's possible that the Ukrainians behind

512
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 1: the scenes are a lot more willing to negotiate so

513
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,600
Speaker 1: Zelenski outside pressuring as maximum military assistance as possible from

514
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 1: the West, using that as a bargaining chip at the

515
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: table with the Russians. Yeah, which would be the best case.

516
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 1: You do see some language from the Ukrainians that seems

517
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 1: to indicate there's some there are some shifts, and there's

518
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 1: some potential deal in the making. You know. It's they're

519
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: supposed to be having talks today virtually, so we'll see

520
00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: if we get any progress out of that, even on

521
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 1: things like humanitarian corridors of Mariopol. But the fact that

522
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: you have some indications from the Ukrainians. By the way,

523
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: one of the things that they want out of the

524
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: negotiations are reppery for their destroyed cities from Moscow. So

525
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 1: we'll see if that's a deal breaker for Russia. But

526
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: the fact that you have the Ukrainians sort of hinting

527
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 1: at there could be a deal on the table and

528
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: the Russians and state media saying the same, it's enough

529
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 1: to have a tiny shred of hope, not a huge

530
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 1: amount that this is going to get resolved today. But

531
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 1: when you see you know, previously sort of hardline positions

532
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 1: being softened being shifted a little bit, that's at least

533
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:29,760
Speaker 1: some sign of potential progress. Yeah, these are all good things,

534
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: and we should encourage as much diplomacy as possible. Okay,

535
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and move on. Speaking of diplomacy, this

536
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: is also a very important story in Iran. So in

537
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: the city of Airbial in Kurdistan, in Iraq, northern Iraq,

538
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: there was a surprise rocket attack with missiles launched from Iran.

539
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: We have a little bit of a video of that.

540
00:29:51,120 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 1: Let's just take a quick look. So not great. That

541
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: was actually near the American consulate in Airbel to be

542
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 1: clear not on the American consulate in Arabil, but nearby.

543
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: There were no American personnel who were injured or who

544
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: were killed in the attack. So it's not the same

545
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: as that rocket attack that we saw during the Trump administration,

546
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 1: which eventually led to the assassination of Costum Slamani. We're

547
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: not there yet, however, this is still a very important development.

548
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: Let's put this up there on the screen, because the

549
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: Iranians specifically took credit for that missile barrage near the

550
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: US consulate in Iraq. Now, all of this matters in

551
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: the context of the JCPOA or the Iranian nuclear deal,

552
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: which was reportedly nearing finalization with the P five plus

553
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:49,200
Speaker 1: one plot powers. That's everybody, as well as China in

554
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: terms of the UN Security Council. Now, why does this matter,

555
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 1: Because it because we're nearing the deal and then all

556
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: of a sudden we see this Iranian miss all attack. Now,

557
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: this missile attack is almost certainly occurring and was launched

558
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: by the IRGC, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Now we've spoken

559
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: with doctor treat de Parsi before. He's my professor in

560
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 1: graduate school, and he has a kind of a deep

561
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: view inside to the Iranian regime, and he explained it

562
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 1: this way, not about this attacking specifically, but in previous

563
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: provocations whenever there was a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran, which

564
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 1: is that Iran is not a monolith. The IRGC is

565
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 1: separate from the Iranian military, which is separate from the IATOLA,

566
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: which is separate from the President's office. What happened is

567
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 1: that there are factions inside of Iran which do want peace.

568
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: The civilians are suffering, obviously, but the IRGC they make

569
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 1: a ton of money circumventing the sanctions and by running

570
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 1: some of the most lucrative smuggling routes to a large

571
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 1: population for the Iranians. Thus, the nuclear deal, which would

572
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: lessen sanctions, is actually a direct economic threat to people

573
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: who are inside the IRGC, who are looting the country

574
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: and who are using sanctions in order to have dramatic

575
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 1: markup and use their navy and all that in order

576
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: to bring illicit goods into the country as well as

577
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: oil and all of that. So this can be seen

578
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: in the context of the hawk hardline elements in Iran

579
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: trying to sync the Iranian nuclear deal as it nears finalization.

580
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: We saw the exact same thing happened actually near the

581
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: signing of the nuclear deal back in twenty sixteen when

582
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:29,959
Speaker 1: Barack Obama was president. Remember everyone that the Iranians took hostages,

583
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 1: you know those two US Navy boats. There's a lot

584
00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:34,479
Speaker 1: of questions about what happened with those boats, but basically

585
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 1: they were taken into custody and video and it is

586
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:39,239
Speaker 1: humiliating and John Kerrey had to go like save them

587
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: or whatever. And this was a huge political problem obviously

588
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 1: for Obama. Well, they're trying to create the same situation

589
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: the Iranians, specifically to rub it in the face and

590
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: humiliate the Americans in order to discourage a nuclear deal,

591
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: especially the IRGC. So just keep in mind here this

592
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,680
Speaker 1: is being done by elements within Iran who don't want peace.

593
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: A nuclear deal is a direct threat to them. That

594
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 1: doesn't lessen the geopolitical tension and the situation on behalf

595
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: of the Biden administration already, this is obviously being claimed

596
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:10,120
Speaker 1: by the most hawkish elements on the right or even

597
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: in the US to say, hey, now look we can't

598
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: have any nuclear deal. We got to kill the They

599
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: didn't want the deal anywhere, but now this is AMMO.

600
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 1: And then you know, people understand our politics and the

601
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: way that they can play into that. But this is

602
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 1: very much a test crystal of the Biden administration as

603
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: they near possible completion of the nuclear deal, although there

604
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 1: is some problems with there. Yeah, we'll get to that

605
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 1: in just a minute. It was very noteworthy that the

606
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: Biden administration was it pains to say this was not

607
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 1: an attack on our consulate. So they of course they

608
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: condemned it, but they made it clear that they did

609
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 1: not see it as a direct attack on our interest there.

610
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 1: Aron says that this was in retaliation for an Israeli

611
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: strike in Syria that killed two members of the Revolutionary Guard.

612
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: So that's what they're publicly saying, that this is about Israel,

613
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 1: and we just told you what a mess it is

614
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: in Syria and how the security of these proxy wars

615
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 1: and tensions all around the globe. So they're saying that's

616
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:12,719
Speaker 1: what that's about. Other observers are also pointing out that

617
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 1: what is happening in a Rock right now is they

618
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 1: are trying to form a government, and there's questions about

619
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 1: how many of sort of Iran's you know, proxies and

620
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: affiliated politicians will end up in that government, So that

621
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 1: was pointed to as another potential cause of this attack.

622
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: And then, obviously from our perspective, the other clear thing

623
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 1: here is because it was so close to our newly

624
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 1: being built actually consulate there in Urbil, that this was

625
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 1: also trying to upset the apple kart with regards to

626
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,120
Speaker 1: nuclear negotiations. Let's go and put this next piece up

627
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: on the screen about where we are with regards to

628
00:34:48,680 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: the Iran deal, because this isn't the only threat to

629
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,479
Speaker 1: that deal coming together. Let me give you a little

630
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 1: bit of backstory. So Biden, when he was running for president,

631
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: he said he wanted to, you know, re enter very

632
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: quickly into this deal. But the beginning of his administration,

633
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,960
Speaker 1: he and his administration they really dragged their feet. And

634
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: this became a problem because in the meantime, there were

635
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: elections in Iran, and you know, the previous sort of

636
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,879
Speaker 1: more open faction was kicked out and now you have

637
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 1: more hardliners in charge. They took that opportunity after the

638
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: election to say, oh, hey, we want to give us

639
00:35:24,320 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: some time because we want to rethink our strategy. What

640
00:35:27,080 --> 00:35:30,239
Speaker 1: they were really doing was upping their nuclear program and

641
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 1: an attempt to put more pressure on US to come

642
00:35:33,560 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: back to the table so that they could secure a

643
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: better deal. So now here we are back at the table.

644
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:44,240
Speaker 1: All signs indicate that they were very close to coming

645
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 1: to terms on a new deal, and then all hell

646
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:52,280
Speaker 1: breaks loose in Ukraine with Russia. So what Russia is doing,

647
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: and they have a say in this deal, they are

648
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: party to it. What they're saying is, hey, we're not

649
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:02,280
Speaker 1: down with this thing unless we get specific written guarantees

650
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,359
Speaker 1: in the Iranian nuclear deal that we are not going

651
00:36:06,400 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: to be sanctioned free when it comes to Iran and

652
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,959
Speaker 1: we're going to continue to be able to do free

653
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: trade with them and you know, collaborate militarily. We want

654
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,880
Speaker 1: to have written guarantees there. The US is saying, absolutely,

655
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:22,319
Speaker 1: no way, non starter. We're not using this deal to

656
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 1: you know, have these other sort of superfluous agreements involved.

657
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: The two potential paths forward are a sort of more

658
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 1: narrow deal something that the Iranians have already ruled out,

659
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:36,279
Speaker 1: or the very latest thing floated by the US is

660
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 1: if this is truly a red line Russia won't go along,

661
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll just take this same deal and basically take

662
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 1: it out of this particular framework and try to do

663
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 1: the deal without Russia. Would that work? Would that happen?

664
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,160
Speaker 1: Would the Iranians go for it? No idea. But you know,

665
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: a lot of blame does fall at the feet of

666
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,760
Speaker 1: the Biden administration, who dithered when they could have gone

667
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 1: re entered this deal very quickly after he took office,

668
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 1: when you had more favorable circumstances. And now by waiting

669
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: here we are in the precipice and the whole thing

670
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,560
Speaker 1: could very well fall apart. Now it may still come together.

671
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: I mean, some of these things, I feel like it

672
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: always looks like they're, you know, hanging by a thread

673
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,920
Speaker 1: and they're about to come apart when they finally do

674
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: come through, but they have really risked their ability to

675
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,920
Speaker 1: rejoin this agreement, which just a reminder, we were the

676
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 1: ones that left, and the Iranians actually held up their

677
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 1: end of the deal for quite a while after we

678
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: backed down. Yes, that's a good point. Also I misspoke earlier. P.

679
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 1: Five plus one includes Germany, not China, isn't it. But

680
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 1: they're part of the permanent powers anyway. What important is

681
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 1: that those powers is specifically the Europeans. What are we

682
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 1: dealing with right now? An oil crisis. What do the

683
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: Iranians have a lot of oil, and so this is

684
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,359
Speaker 1: part of why Russia, in a way, which is also

685
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: party to the deal, they don't necessarily have an interest

686
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 1: in allowing Iranian oil to flow because it could make

687
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 1: up some of their that's back channels, so they might

688
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,280
Speaker 1: want to kill the deal. Now, the Chinese have always

689
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 1: bought Russian oil and they like Russian or sorry, Iranian oil.

690
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: They like it sort of the South Korean. So there

691
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 1: is pressure from Asia in order to get this deal done.

692
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 1: The Ukraine conflict both complicates this but also makes it

693
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 1: so that the West is probably more likely to give

694
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: up as much as possible to the Iranians, given that

695
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: they need oil prices to come down. So in a

696
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: way it's both the best and the worst time in

697
00:38:24,080 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: order to secure this deal. We'll see if it ends

698
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 1: up getting if it ends up happening. But the missile attack,

699
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: it's a test against the Biden administration. Which way are

700
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: they going to fall? How hawkish are the elements inside

701
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: of the United States? Can they exactly push things one

702
00:38:39,560 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: way or the other. They are a big test of

703
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: European diplomacy and of their posture. Whenever it comes to

704
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 1: energy policy. And finally, it's also a test of China

705
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 1: and of Russia and how they're going to conduct themselves.

706
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: Everybody's got competing interests and so how exactly the deal

707
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,040
Speaker 1: ends up shaking out, we'll see. But in terms of

708
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:01,359
Speaker 1: the attack itself, it's not a good sign for it's

709
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: not a good sign for if you want to see

710
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 1: this eventually get inked. That being said, it doesn't completely

711
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: rule it out. At the same time, I know there

712
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: were a lot of questions around that. Yeah, and as

713
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 1: you said, important to this whole context is I'm looking

714
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 1: today's national average gas prices four dollars and thirty three cents.

715
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 1: So that filled up my tank this weekend and sucked.

716
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:24,400
Speaker 1: That definitely puts more pressure on the West to try

717
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 1: to do what it takes to get this done. And

718
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: you see that in the rhetoric from the Biden administration

719
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: trying to say, hey, this attack, we condemn it, but

720
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: it wasn't really about us. All right, Let's bring you

721
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: up to speed on some of the latest polling with

722
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:42,600
Speaker 1: regards to Ukraine and Russia. And this is pretty interesting,

723
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: very different response from the American public on the idea

724
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:50,840
Speaker 1: of a no fly zone depending on how it is presented.

725
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put Ryan Gurduski's tweet here up

726
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is from a new CBS News poll.

727
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: There's a lot in this poll. Actually we may dig

728
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: into more of it tomorrow. But when you just ask people, hey,

729
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 1: do you support a no fly zone? Very strong majority

730
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,959
Speaker 1: support fifty nine percent support, forty one percent a pose.

731
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,840
Speaker 1: But when you say hey, do you support a no

732
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 1: fly zone over Ukraine? If it is viewed as an

733
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: active war, which, by the way, it would be, then

734
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:23,800
Speaker 1: support drops significantly, So you have only thirty eight percent

735
00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 1: in support and sixty two percent in opposition. This tells

736
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 1: you a lot of things. First of all, I think

737
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: you know the most important point here is that clearly

738
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: the media has done a horrific job of helping people

739
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,640
Speaker 1: to understand what a no fly zone actually means. Because

740
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: when you just hear the words no fly zone, you're

741
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 1: not a military expert. You just think, oh, okay, that

742
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 1: would help protect Ukrainians, and yes, I'm all in favor.

743
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: Let's help the Ukrainians in whatever ways that we possibly can,

744
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,720
Speaker 1: so long as it doesn't mean that we're going to war. Well,

745
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: if the media had done their job, people would understand

746
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: that those two two things are basically synonymous. So the

747
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: moment that you give people any kind of context of

748
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 1: what this actually means, they're like, absolutely not, definitely not,

749
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 1: we are not on board with this whatsoever, by a

750
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: margin of almost two thirds to one third. So I

751
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 1: thought that was pretty significant and interesting that they phrased

752
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,720
Speaker 1: it both ways to get at how people actually feel

753
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: about these types of escalatory acts. Yeah, it's very important

754
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 1: that people understand that. It's also why I take everything

755
00:41:27,480 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: with a grain of salt whenever people don't seem to

756
00:41:30,120 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 1: understand the total ramifications. So for example, let's put this

757
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 1: next one up there on the screen. Majority currently in

758
00:41:36,719 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 1: the US, per the same CBS poll, sixty nine percent

759
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 1: believe that Biden has not acted forcefully enough versus Russia. Now,

760
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 1: if you look at this, Americans think that there are

761
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,840
Speaker 1: a lot more hawkish options, but they don't understand what

762
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:55,480
Speaker 1: exactly that means. For example, people say, oh, well, we

763
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 1: could have a cyber attack on Russia, or oh we

764
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,799
Speaker 1: could have a no fly zone. They don't understand the

765
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 1: implications of what those are. So with the no fly zone,

766
00:42:04,840 --> 00:42:07,600
Speaker 1: it sounds like it's anodyne. They're like, oh, well, we'll

767
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: just make it so nobody can fly. Yes, but to

768
00:42:09,920 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 1: do that, you'd have to shoot Russian planes out of

769
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 1: the sky. And then when we do that, they're going

770
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:15,799
Speaker 1: to shoot back at us, and then we have to

771
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 1: bomb their anti aircraft, and then they have to bomb

772
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: our anti aircraft, and now you're having full blown nuclear exchange.

773
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 1: That all could happen with the span of like two days.

774
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 1: That's all it would take in order for that to escalate.

775
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:29,720
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what could happen with a cyber attack. Okay,

776
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:32,879
Speaker 1: So there was a discussion apparently within the situation room

777
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 1: of well, we have the capability to disrupt Russian attacks

778
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 1: on Ukraine. That would require though hacking and taking down

779
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: the grid that the Russian military relies on. Well, now

780
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: you just committed an act of cyber war against Russia,

781
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: which then makes it what by disabling their military that's

782
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 1: affected a kinetic conflict, which then they are allowed to

783
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 1: under their doctrine, to do the same to us. Do

784
00:42:57,239 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: you see how these things could get totally out of control?

785
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: What matters is that the media is framing on this,

786
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 1: And I took some time out of the weekend. This,

787
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 1: you know, cost me some This cost me some brain cells.

788
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,080
Speaker 1: But I took some time to watch some of this coverage. Yeah,

789
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:17,160
Speaker 1: the MSNBC crowd is full blown crazy, and I'm going

790
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,320
Speaker 1: to be covering this in my monologue around Hitler comparisons,

791
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,920
Speaker 1: which is the most extreme part of it. But the

792
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:27,280
Speaker 1: cavalier nature through which we discussed no fly zones and escalation,

793
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: they don't. For example, I was talking to somebody who

794
00:43:31,480 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 1: watched the news and they said, oh, my god, did

795
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:37,439
Speaker 1: you see that the Russians struck near Poland? And I said, well,

796
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: did you know that they were bombing the weapons that

797
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 1: we sent them there? She goes, no, I didn't know

798
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: that at all. And I was like, yeah, well, you know,

799
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: it's because we sent I'm not even saying I'm against

800
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: it necessarily, but you send eight over there, That's why

801
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,320
Speaker 1: it happened. And they're like, oh, well, that's totally different

802
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 1: than how MSNBC portrayed exactly the calls for war and

803
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: including the platforming of these Ukrainian members of Parliament who

804
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: are calling for a total shutdown of trade with Russia,

805
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: a no fly zone, full scale economic war against Russia,

806
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: and also the most defensive elements. Whenever it comes to

807
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 1: the West is all anybody's hearing on that side of

808
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,399
Speaker 1: the argument, And I think, fine, I'm willing to hear

809
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: them out, but we also have to present the other

810
00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:23,080
Speaker 1: side of the equation. And that's what's missing, Crystal. This

811
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:24,959
Speaker 1: is the same thing that happened in Iraq. They were like, hey,

812
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,439
Speaker 1: we chakanah, We'll take it completely over. You're like, yeah,

813
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:30,000
Speaker 1: but can we run a country of forty million people

814
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,800
Speaker 1: with one hundred and fifty thousand troops. The answer is no, actually,

815
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: And whenever it comes to the follow on effects, nobody

816
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 1: is being presented with the real information, and the media

817
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 1: monolith here is just having tremendously damaging effects to the

818
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 1: American psyche and constraining the number of options for policymakers.

819
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: Cable news is infotainment and it is not built for

820
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 1: serious times at all. So in some ways, you think, oh,

821
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,040
Speaker 1: this is the moment that you know, especially the CNNs

822
00:44:58,040 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 1: of the world are made for. Like they've got all

823
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: these resources, and they've got your world, and they've got

824
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 1: you know, people on the ground, and some of those reporters,

825
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: I mean, really truly brave what they are doing and

826
00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 1: you know, working hard in order to gather information, but

827
00:45:12,800 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 1: ultimately their commitment is to sensationalism, sort of emotional sensationalism

828
00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: to get you to keep tuning in and tuning in

829
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 1: and tuning in and so in order to generate that.

830
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:31,880
Speaker 1: They focus exclusively on the human interest part of this,

831
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:34,680
Speaker 1: and there's no doubt about it, like there's a space

832
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: for that. And the tails and the horrors that are

833
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,840
Speaker 1: unfolding for the human beings on the ground is and

834
00:45:40,920 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 1: the refugees who are fleeing two point five million plus,

835
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 1: these are things we talk about all the time too.

836
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,280
Speaker 1: It's really important to remember the humanity of the people

837
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:51,560
Speaker 1: who are involved in this conflict, as it is important

838
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,360
Speaker 1: to remember the humanity of people involved in other conflicts

839
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 1: that they completely ignore. But that's the only part that

840
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 1: they show you. There isn't any serious, level headed discussion

841
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 1: of what these terms mean, what our options are, how

842
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: extraordinary the measures we've already taken really are. Cable News

843
00:46:14,239 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 1: is not a space to have long, extended discussions of

844
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 1: the type that we try to have here about Okay,

845
00:46:21,960 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: if we pursue this path, and I understand why emotionally

846
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: you would want to quote do more. Okay, these are

847
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: some of the potential follow on effects. This is how

848
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:35,320
Speaker 1: this could lead to potentially vastly greater amounts of human

849
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 1: misery and grave costs for our own population. Cable news

850
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 1: has no space or ability to conduct to do any

851
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,319
Speaker 1: of that. I mean, they're just it's forget about it,

852
00:46:45,400 --> 00:46:47,359
Speaker 1: like you will spend your whole life wishing that they

853
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 1: would ever do anything like it. The format, the structure

854
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 1: of the incentives, the talent, none of them are equipped

855
00:46:53,480 --> 00:46:57,120
Speaker 1: to handle a serious situation such as this, And so

856
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: that's how you can end up with the landscape we

857
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 1: have now where what the Biden administration has done is

858
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 1: I mean, it is extremely hawkish. The amount of weapons

859
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 1: that we have flooded, the zone within Ukraine, the really

860
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: financial death penalty we have given to the state of Russia.

861
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: Russia in a span of weeks became the most sanctioned

862
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 1: country on the entire planet. We're engaged in sanctions that

863
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: we have never done before, and still looking for ways

864
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: to ratchet up the pressure and up the ante. And hey,

865
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 1: we're going to ban Russian oil and let's pressure the

866
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 1: Europeans to do the same. These are extraordinary measures I

867
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 1: keep saying it, but I really think it's worth remembering

868
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,800
Speaker 1: that just a few weeks ago, just the swift banking

869
00:47:47,840 --> 00:47:50,160
Speaker 1: section that was considered that was the outer limit, that

870
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 1: was like, oh, that would be crazy if they did that,

871
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 1: and we just flew right by that like it was

872
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: nothing and did swift sanctions. At the same time we

873
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 1: did the Central Bank sings, which was something that even

874
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:05,719
Speaker 1: the Russians never anticipated that we would go that far.

875
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 1: So the fact that you have a media incapable of

876
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 1: explaining how extraordinary the situation is leads to things like,

877
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, people just sort of knee jerk supporting a

878
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 1: no fly zone when it's presented out of context, or

879
00:48:19,760 --> 00:48:22,759
Speaker 1: a majority saying, hey, this isn't strong enough when these

880
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: are you know, outrageous actions, like extraordinary actions, unprecedented actions

881
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:29,919
Speaker 1: that we've taken. And if you dig in war here,

882
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 1: you see you have sixty five percent who favor even

883
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 1: tougher economic penalties. I mean, I don't even know what

884
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: else we could really do. There's so much that we've

885
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:44,240
Speaker 1: already done to basically cut them off at the knees.

886
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: You have sixty one percent who think the US should

887
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: send more weapons and supplies to Ukraine. I think again

888
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 1: without understanding how absolutely extraordinary what we've already sent in is,

889
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:58,160
Speaker 1: and you got twenty one percent. Only, thank goodness, who

890
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 1: think the US should take direct military action against Russia?

891
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: Because everyone knows what that means. That one you have,

892
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 1: at least the people know, But the gray area is

893
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,480
Speaker 1: where they want you to push you as far as possible. Look,

894
00:49:09,480 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 1: a Russian oil ban was considered non starter here three

895
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:15,799
Speaker 1: weeks ago in Washington. Now it already happened. Did you

896
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 1: guys know that Congress has revoked PNTR status for Russia

897
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 1: Permanent Normal Trade Relationships, making it so that they are

898
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: eligible for the most high tariffs, revoking their trade relationship

899
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,919
Speaker 1: with US and now the entire West. This possibly could

900
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: affect their WTO status as well, where there's also going

901
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:36,640
Speaker 1: to be a diplomatic front. All we're saying is, let's

902
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 1: have a discussion as to whether this is maybe enough.

903
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 1: Is there an off ramp, what does that look like?

904
00:49:43,080 --> 00:49:45,919
Speaker 1: You know, what impact is this going to have? Could

905
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: this then affect Russian behavior? Things are moving at such

906
00:49:49,080 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 1: speed that we are constraining the number of options in

907
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,040
Speaker 1: Moscow to less and less and less, which is basically

908
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 1: capitulate and you know, give up and see how much

909
00:49:57,200 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: of status you get back, or back into a corner

910
00:50:00,280 --> 00:50:02,520
Speaker 1: and fight to the death. We'll see which one of

911
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: those that they pick. The latter is frankly the much more,

912
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,919
Speaker 1: much more likely option, and we should consider whether that's

913
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:10,880
Speaker 1: something that we want in this world. Yeah, and the

914
00:50:10,960 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 1: last poll number we have here for you that we're

915
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: keeping an eye on is Quinnipiac. Let's put this up.

916
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:20,440
Speaker 1: Seventy one percent of Americans say that they support that

917
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:24,320
Speaker 1: ban on Russian oil, even if it results in higher

918
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,640
Speaker 1: gas prices. You will also have an overwhelming majority seventy

919
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,919
Speaker 1: eight percent in favor of accepting Ukrainian refugees into the US,

920
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 1: which is a beautiful thing to see. But you know,

921
00:50:33,440 --> 00:50:36,160
Speaker 1: this is where you should always be a little skeptical

922
00:50:36,360 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 1: of the public opinion polling, just like we see with

923
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 1: the no fly zone. You know, people overwhelmingly in favor

924
00:50:42,480 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: until they're given more context. Here, I would very much

925
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: suspect that there is a genuine decency in the American

926
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 1: people where they say, listen, I am this is going

927
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:56,399
Speaker 1: to hurt me. I'm already struggling. You know. Sixty four

928
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: percent of Americans living paycheck to paycheck. But if it's

929
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:02,160
Speaker 1: going to help the Ukrainians, willing to do it, and

930
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 1: you're hearing from the political class, this is the thing.

931
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 1: You know, this is really gonna this is going to

932
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:08,440
Speaker 1: force the end. It's because this is the way to

933
00:51:08,480 --> 00:51:11,319
Speaker 1: health the Ukrainians. Is your patriotic duty. We heard from

934
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:14,560
Speaker 1: you know, people like Larry Summers and these other multimillionaires

935
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:16,880
Speaker 1: to pay more at the gas pump to support the Ukrainians,

936
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:18,799
Speaker 1: and people like Okay, if that's right, then I'm down

937
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,759
Speaker 1: for it. What's going to happen, though, is this isn't

938
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 1: ultimately going to end the war, save the Ukrainians, and

939
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,839
Speaker 1: then you're just stuck paying a lot more. What's going

940
00:51:28,880 --> 00:51:31,680
Speaker 1: to happen for gas? I just was reading here. Triple

941
00:51:31,760 --> 00:51:34,279
Speaker 1: A just had a new survey. We've been using their

942
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,879
Speaker 1: gas price figure. Currently, the national average as of when

943
00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 1: we're talking right now, four dollars and thirty cents a gallon.

944
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:41,840
Speaker 1: Four dollars gas is the tipping point for the majority

945
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,760
Speaker 1: of Americans. So two thirds of Americans felt gas prices

946
00:51:45,760 --> 00:51:47,480
Speaker 1: were too high just a few weeks ago at three

947
00:51:47,480 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 1: point fifty eight gallon. Now with the national average and

948
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,239
Speaker 1: all time high over four Americans have reached a tipping point.

949
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 1: Fifty nine percent say they're going to have to make

950
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 1: changes to their driving habits or lifestyle if gas were

951
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:00,760
Speaker 1: to reach five dollars a gallon, which is almost certainly

952
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 1: going to happen, which is never hit before in a

953
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 1: western country or sorry, in this western part of our country.

954
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: Three quarters said that they are going to have to

955
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 1: adjust their lifestyle to offset the spike at the pump.

956
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 1: And I would remind you all sorts of consumer decisions

957
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 1: are downstream of gas price. If you can't drive to

958
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:20,920
Speaker 1: a restaurant, you're not gonna eat at the restaurant. If

959
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 1: you can't drive to the store, you're not going to

960
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 1: shop at the store. So it would actually be a

961
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 1: return to the COVID economy of staying home with zoom meetings,

962
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 1: you know, buying more stuff on Amazon. So it would

963
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,200
Speaker 1: be great for the big guys, and it would not

964
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 1: be good for mom and pop businesses and for small

965
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:38,240
Speaker 1: business also, not to mention all of the immense cost

966
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:40,400
Speaker 1: all of us are probably seeing right now at the

967
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,400
Speaker 1: grocery store. I certainly am fuel price gets you know,

968
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 1: priced into the cost of transport for goods, the transport

969
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 1: costs for the grocery store chains and the trucking right

970
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: now are astronomical and they're only likely to go up.

971
00:52:53,000 --> 00:52:55,640
Speaker 1: You know, diesel right now is completely out of control.

972
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 1: It is well over five dollars a gallon. Yeah, five

973
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,360
Speaker 1: dollars and thirty five cents. Five dollars and thirteen cents, sorry,

974
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 1: one three to five what I'm reading there for the

975
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 1: national average of price across this country. Now, just imagine

976
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 1: that for California and elsewhere where diesel price and gas price. Yeah,

977
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 1: I'm looking right now. The diesel price there, our highest

978
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: record is already six dollars and twenty nine cents. That's

979
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 1: forty three million people who live in the state of California,

980
00:53:21,200 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 1: twelve percent of the entire US population. Things are not

981
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 1: good and could have a significant impact on everybody's lives.

982
00:53:27,080 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 1: That's why we have the economists on today. Yeah, we're

983
00:53:28,680 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 1: going to get into more of this with our economists too.

984
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,560
Speaker 1: Will help hopefully provide some ideas of a plan that

985
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 1: could lower gas prices in the short term. Yeah, that's right. Okay,

986
00:53:36,239 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and move on censorship. I mean, in

987
00:53:38,120 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 1: terms of the social societal mass formation psychosis that we're

988
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 1: seeing really around Russia, which has it. Yeah, gotta get

989
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: us banned, listen. I mean, at this point, who isn't

990
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 1: getting banned from me? So let's go ahead and put

991
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. Abby Martin in her

992
00:53:54,160 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 1: show has now had six hundred episodes of breaking the

993
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:03,799
Speaker 1: set take off of YouTube. That is completely crazy, and

994
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 1: it just goes to show you that there's no reason given. Now, sure,

995
00:54:08,160 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 1: Abby used to work for RT but when you have

996
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 1: a Russian state media and these kind of blanket bands

997
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 1: that they say are just all going to be taken off,

998
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:18,439
Speaker 1: and that content that includes them, there's no context as

999
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 1: to exactly why any of this content gets taken off.

1000
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 1: It's just included in sort of blanket ban and there

1001
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,560
Speaker 1: is no discussion as to whether that content is valuable.

1002
00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 1: I mean, we have played here clips from some of

1003
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 1: her content whenever the Empire files, whenever they interrupted George W.

1004
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: Bush and called him a work criminal. These are things

1005
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 1: which are valuable to public discourse and are now unable

1006
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: to be seen by the public. The other one that

1007
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 1: was taken off, let's put this up there on the

1008
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:50,480
Speaker 1: screen was Oliver Stones documentary Ukraine on Fire, which was

1009
00:54:50,480 --> 00:54:54,200
Speaker 1: taken off of YouTube again with no explanation, and has

1010
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 1: now been uploaded to Rumble. But the point is is

1011
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 1: that nobody is talking about why and listen. You may

1012
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: think these are out there, it doesn't matter, you know.

1013
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 1: I actually went back and watched all of Oliver Stone's

1014
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,040
Speaker 1: Putin interviews. He has a series of Putin interviews on

1015
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: Showtime and elsewhere. It's a very good insight into the

1016
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: mind of Vladimir Putin. And if we're going to have

1017
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 1: a geopolitical conflict now with Russia, it would be you know,

1018
00:55:21,680 --> 00:55:24,160
Speaker 1: maybe worth it to people in the West in order

1019
00:55:24,160 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 1: to understand how the autocratic leader of that country thinks,

1020
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:32,000
Speaker 1: especially when interviewed by a Westerner like Oliver Stone. So

1021
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,880
Speaker 1: I just feel like this total crackdown we've explained here before.

1022
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 1: If you go back to our battle update earlier in

1023
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: the show, we are reading to you from Russian state media.

1024
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:44,720
Speaker 1: Why because we need to know what they are saying

1025
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: to their own population in terms of what a diplomatic

1026
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 1: solution could look like. We would be fools not to

1027
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:53,160
Speaker 1: do so, I mean, what we want it translated into

1028
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 1: multiple times by the West, and then read it straight

1029
00:55:55,440 --> 00:55:58,480
Speaker 1: from there. It's better to go to the primary source. Anyway,

1030
00:55:58,520 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 1: We're watching a full scale crackdown that's happening right now

1031
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:06,400
Speaker 1: on YouTube with no consideration for the broader consequences of

1032
00:56:06,440 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 1: what this would mean in the long run for the

1033
00:56:08,320 --> 00:56:10,880
Speaker 1: information environment. And I do think it is going to

1034
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 1: be highly detrimental to how Americans shape and see this

1035
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:17,160
Speaker 1: conflict going forward. Yeah, and it's not just YouTube, by

1036
00:56:17,200 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 1: the way. And I always want to say, like Russia

1037
00:56:20,160 --> 00:56:23,839
Speaker 1: is actively criminalizing and threatening jail time just soppily more

1038
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 1: like the Russians. There's right, exactly. We don't want to

1039
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:29,399
Speaker 1: go anywhere near the direction that they're ultimately going in.

1040
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: I mean, Abby Martin, she was critical while she was

1041
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 1: on our t She was critical of Russia's invasion of Crimea. Yeah,

1042
00:56:37,920 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 1: and so that just shows you how indiscriminate this is.

1043
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter that her content at times was actually

1044
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 1: critical of Russia, just because she's associated with our tea.

1045
00:56:49,080 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 1: It's all bad. It all has to be banned, it

1046
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 1: all has to be censored, it all has to be

1047
00:56:52,800 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 1: taken down. This is insanity. I mean, I watched Ukraine

1048
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 1: on Fire, that documentary, and you have to trust people

1049
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:03,439
Speaker 1: to be able to take in information and be able

1050
00:57:03,480 --> 00:57:07,120
Speaker 1: to figure out what they believe and who's offering sufficient evidence,

1051
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 1: and what claims are true and what needs to be balanced.

1052
00:57:09,719 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 1: And if you have a confident democracy, that's what it

1053
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 1: looks like. It looks like trusting your population to you know,

1054
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 1: watch any kind of content from any kind of place

1055
00:57:18,920 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 1: and be able to still make sense of the world

1056
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:26,040
Speaker 1: and participate as active citizens in a democracy. There's also this,

1057
00:57:26,200 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 1: we continue to track this just really truly reactionary hysteria

1058
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 1: around anything regarding Russia, even people and products that have

1059
00:57:39,560 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: nothing to do with the Russian government, even people and

1060
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 1: cultural products that are actively anti war and dissidence in

1061
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 1: terms of the Krumlin narrative. This is really you know,

1062
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:53,080
Speaker 1: this is an extraordinary thing. Let's go ahead and put

1063
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: this next hair sheet up on the screen. This twenty

1064
00:57:55,760 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 1: year old this is terrible. Russian piano prodigy was supposed

1065
00:57:59,920 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 1: to veges Canadian debut with Montreal Symphony Orchestra. He was

1066
00:58:04,480 --> 00:58:09,560
Speaker 1: dropped after some people email to complain about him, you know,

1067
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 1: just the very fact that he's Russian. So this is

1068
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 1: just like blanket xenophobia. Even though he had been critical

1069
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 1: like publicly critical of Russia's war in Ukraine. He wrote

1070
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 1: earlier this month that the truth is that every Russian

1071
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 1: will feel guilty for decades because of the terrible and

1072
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 1: bloody decision that none of us could influence and predict.

1073
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 1: So he was vocally publicly against the war, and doesn't

1074
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 1: matter because he has anything to do with Russia. He's

1075
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 1: got to be banned. We can't listen to his music.

1076
00:58:46,360 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 1: This is insane, and you know, it really bothers me

1077
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:50,760
Speaker 1: when it comes to music and art as well, because

1078
00:58:50,800 --> 00:58:53,320
Speaker 1: this is one of the great connectors of humanity. I mean,

1079
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:56,560
Speaker 1: this is the way that we really the piano like,

1080
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 1: you don't have to understand the language. It just connects

1081
00:58:59,280 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 1: on a human emotional level. And this is one of

1082
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:05,400
Speaker 1: the ways that we sort of see each other as

1083
00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:10,040
Speaker 1: human beings around the world and create this common sense

1084
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 1: of our humanity. So it's a sad thing the way

1085
00:59:12,680 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 1: that people are react. Just to give you an idea

1086
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 1: how much we've lost our minds. During the Cold War,

1087
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 1: we actually made an explicit aim to elevate Russian culture

1088
00:59:21,240 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 1: and say that the Soviet Union was oppressing that. So

1089
00:59:24,680 --> 00:59:29,080
Speaker 1: we would celebrate Tolstoy and we would celebrate soul Janetsen,

1090
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:31,960
Speaker 1: and we would celebrate you know, crime and punishment. We

1091
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:36,600
Speaker 1: would celebrate the Russian symphony or ballet. Now it's the

1092
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 1: opposite where we're like, no, no no, no, no. The Russian

1093
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 1: regime is the Russian people. Russian culture itself is bad.

1094
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 1: I mean, first of all, I don't need to tell

1095
00:59:44,000 --> 00:59:46,880
Speaker 1: you this, but there are millions of Russian Americans who

1096
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:49,160
Speaker 1: have lived here for a very long time, who are

1097
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:51,520
Speaker 1: proud people and who are proud of their culture. So

1098
00:59:51,640 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 1: number one, you're attacking, you know, part of your own citizens.

1099
00:59:54,560 --> 00:59:57,959
Speaker 1: But number two, this is the easiest way in order

1100
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 1: to turn this into some civilizational conflict and make it

1101
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 1: so that the Russian people themselves say, okay, well it's

1102
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:07,240
Speaker 1: war between all of us. And that's the opposite of

1103
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,800
Speaker 1: what you want, given the history in terms of what

1104
01:00:09,840 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 1: that populace looks like when it unites and decides to

1105
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,840
Speaker 1: fight against something in what it considers a civilizational conflict.

1106
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 1: So let me also say this is a point that

1107
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,040
Speaker 1: doctor Parci actually made when we talked to him last week.

1108
01:00:21,520 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 1: So we all have this understanding that Russian policy is

1109
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 1: directed by Putin in a handful of oligarchs like that's

1110
01:00:28,520 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 1: who was in charge, and the Russian population has very

1111
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 1: little say in what is happening at the top. But

1112
01:00:34,040 --> 01:00:36,640
Speaker 1: then how do you fit that together with But we're

1113
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 1: gonna blanket punish all of millions of people who have nothing,

1114
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 1: who you've already admitted have nothing to do with this,

1115
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,560
Speaker 1: and it's not their fault. And the other thing is

1116
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:49,000
Speaker 1: Russian culture is rich and it's extraordinary, like we're impoverishing

1117
01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:52,840
Speaker 1: ourselves to cut ourselves off from that. So it truly

1118
01:00:52,920 --> 01:00:55,959
Speaker 1: is a hysterical response that's terrible. And you know these

1119
01:00:56,440 --> 01:01:00,000
Speaker 1: poor piano prodigies, and I was just reading here in Washington.

1120
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:02,480
Speaker 1: It does turn out apparently that Russia house that bar

1121
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 1: I told you about which had it was vandalized, is

1122
01:01:04,800 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 1: not owned by Russians. Classic even though it was vandalized.

1123
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 1: There's like Russian tea rooms. Ana Kachion was on our

1124
01:01:11,520 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: show talking about how a Ukrainian woman opened a Russian

1125
01:01:14,880 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 1: restaurant because she thought it would have more popularity and

1126
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: now people are boycotting her restaurant even though she's Ukrainian.

1127
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: Vietnam Ukrainian restaurant. Let's let all of this die, like

1128
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 1: we said, even at the height of the Cold War,

1129
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 1: we understood the value of Russian culture, which has always

1130
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,720
Speaker 1: had a dramatic impact on the West, and it has

1131
01:01:35,760 --> 01:01:39,960
Speaker 1: always kind of given us this darker view of humanity,

1132
01:01:40,000 --> 01:01:42,920
Speaker 1: which is important and is important to integrate also into

1133
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: kind of our more sunny, idealized versions. But speaking of censorship,

1134
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 1: it wasn't just confined to the Russians. Let's put this

1135
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. The Nilk Boys Full Send podcasts,

1136
01:01:54,680 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 1: which included what was it about? An hour long interview

1137
01:01:57,640 --> 01:02:01,400
Speaker 1: with Donald Trump and had a mass five million views

1138
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:04,880
Speaker 1: in just twenty four hours, was deleted from YouTube. And

1139
01:02:04,920 --> 01:02:08,640
Speaker 1: this is due to another ridiculous standard, which is that

1140
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:11,919
Speaker 1: YouTube has a policy where they are going to take

1141
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 1: down any floating of election conspiracy theories that the election

1142
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 1: was rigged specifically by Trump. Even if you, as a

1143
01:02:20,720 --> 01:02:24,760
Speaker 1: news organization, were to play a clip of that happening,

1144
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: they would still take that down, even if you are

1145
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 1: playing it as a clip in order to debunk it.

1146
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:33,480
Speaker 1: AKA what we're supposed to do in the news now,

1147
01:02:33,520 --> 01:02:35,920
Speaker 1: in this interview, to be fair to the new guys,

1148
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 1: they were just letting him talk. But whatever I mean,

1149
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 1: they're not professional interviewers. They were saying, look do they

1150
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: kept calling him Donald, which, look, guys, you know he

1151
01:02:43,320 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 1: is the president, and that bothers me a coin. That's

1152
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 1: it bothers me a lot. Actually, you know, when you

1153
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: address any president former president, should call him president. But

1154
01:02:52,840 --> 01:02:55,840
Speaker 1: they called him Donnie, and they were letting him talk about,

1155
01:02:55,840 --> 01:02:57,640
Speaker 1: you know, the election was rigged, and it was kind

1156
01:02:57,640 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 1: of funny because they clearly just didn't know what to do.

1157
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,840
Speaker 1: You know, he's talking. Yeah, having interviewed Trump before, it

1158
01:03:03,080 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 1: is maddening. Goes off on the This is a very

1159
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 1: hard person to interview, very difficult, and yeah, I mean

1160
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 1: they just kind of let him go. Like they asked

1161
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:15,280
Speaker 1: him a question about Ukraine and it started like going

1162
01:03:15,320 --> 01:03:19,560
Speaker 1: off about windmill. Yes, such a vegeta against that's what

1163
01:03:19,600 --> 01:03:22,680
Speaker 1: he does. Yeah, it's fine. More what I'm saying is

1164
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 1: that they are setting a ridiculous standard. So what are

1165
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: we Okay, let's say Trump agreed to a breaking points interview,

1166
01:03:29,760 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 1: what are we supposed to do. We know he's going

1167
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 1: to talk about the election. Yeah, are we supposed to

1168
01:03:35,600 --> 01:03:39,520
Speaker 1: just say you can't say what you're saying because we

1169
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:41,800
Speaker 1: want to be able to post this on our primary

1170
01:03:41,800 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 1: distribution platform, well, which is YouTube. Here's the other thing.

1171
01:03:45,520 --> 01:03:48,680
Speaker 1: This is the former president of the United States who

1172
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 1: is very possibly the next president of the United States.

1173
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 1: And don't you think we should hear what this man

1174
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 1: has to say? Good? Back's why I watched it because

1175
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:58,520
Speaker 1: I was like, hey, what's he saying about Ukraine? Well,

1176
01:03:58,560 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 1: and I think your point, yeah, that you've made a

1177
01:04:01,480 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 1: number of times that being kicked off of Twitter and

1178
01:04:04,560 --> 01:04:07,640
Speaker 1: deplatformed may well be the best thing that's ever happened

1179
01:04:07,640 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump. Like by pushing his most outrageous comments

1180
01:04:12,680 --> 01:04:16,720
Speaker 1: off of your platform, you're not helping things, like you're

1181
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:20,200
Speaker 1: only helping him if your goal is to oppose him,

1182
01:04:20,360 --> 01:04:22,320
Speaker 1: like you are only helping him. First of all, he

1183
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:24,960
Speaker 1: loves the storyline about being censored. He said it in

1184
01:04:25,000 --> 01:04:26,640
Speaker 1: the podcast. He goes He's like, just so you know,

1185
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:28,560
Speaker 1: this is going to be taken off YouTube. He put

1186
01:04:28,600 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 1: out one of his weird statements about it afterwards. I mean,

1187
01:04:31,400 --> 01:04:33,440
Speaker 1: he loves this. He relishes that he's going to bring

1188
01:04:33,480 --> 01:04:35,840
Speaker 1: it up at rallies all of that stuff. But number two,

1189
01:04:36,040 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 1: like you want to keep people, you know, fresh in

1190
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:41,600
Speaker 1: their mind of exactly who he is and how he's

1191
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:46,400
Speaker 1: approaching things and what he is clearly completely obsessed about. Still,

1192
01:04:46,880 --> 01:04:51,440
Speaker 1: so you're not helping anyone or anything by not allowing

1193
01:04:51,520 --> 01:04:55,000
Speaker 1: people to see that this man is the former president.

1194
01:04:55,200 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 1: Whatever he says, as insane or outrageous or wrong or

1195
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:03,280
Speaker 1: lying as it might be, people need to know what

1196
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:05,960
Speaker 1: it is that he's saying. So to me, this is

1197
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:11,000
Speaker 1: just an outrageous, honestly escalation of censorship. And when we

1198
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:14,320
Speaker 1: already saw him kicked off of social media platforms, that

1199
01:05:14,440 --> 01:05:17,600
Speaker 1: was insane, and then to pull his interviews is you know,

1200
01:05:17,760 --> 01:05:21,680
Speaker 1: another completely completely insane road. It's about news. We were

1201
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,680
Speaker 1: talking about this earlier when in the Russian media block,

1202
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:28,600
Speaker 1: what are we supposed to do our job? People trust

1203
01:05:28,720 --> 01:05:31,760
Speaker 1: us millions of people to try and parse information and

1204
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 1: deliver it to them. That requires sometimes airing a Russian

1205
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 1: news segment, if anything, just to show you that they're crazy.

1206
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,160
Speaker 1: But now we have to tread incredibly lightly. By the way,

1207
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 1: thank you all to our premium members, because you make

1208
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 1: it so that sometimes we do push it a little

1209
01:05:46,520 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 1: bit on the edge, you know, with full knowledge. We've

1210
01:05:48,520 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 1: been thinking about it a lot, yes, and it's only

1211
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 1: because of the people who support us, So thank you.

1212
01:05:52,680 --> 01:05:55,240
Speaker 1: Very much. Yes. But the reason why that all of

1213
01:05:55,240 --> 01:05:58,560
Speaker 1: this matters is I do still believe in wanting as

1214
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:02,040
Speaker 1: big of a platform as possible to have our information

1215
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 1: get to people. And in this environment where YouTube is

1216
01:06:05,080 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 1: the totally information ecosystem for so many millions and millions

1217
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: and millions of people, we have got to be able

1218
01:06:10,440 --> 01:06:13,439
Speaker 1: to present information in a fair and a proper light

1219
01:06:13,760 --> 01:06:16,160
Speaker 1: in the best way to inform you, not in the

1220
01:06:16,200 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 1: best way to avoid censorship of the algorithm or censorship

1221
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 1: of being taken down. And you put this together, which

1222
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,360
Speaker 1: is what position are we being put in as a

1223
01:06:25,400 --> 01:06:28,280
Speaker 1: news organization? Why are we supposed to cover the Trump

1224
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:31,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four campaign? Yeah, I mean our State of

1225
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 1: the Union covers, for example, we broadcasted live. We should

1226
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: be able to do that. No, if he's going to

1227
01:06:37,600 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 1: run for president, I mean yeah, if he talks about

1228
01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:42,560
Speaker 1: the election is stolen, fine, I mean I will come

1229
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:44,640
Speaker 1: on afterwards and be like, look, obviously I think that's wrong,

1230
01:06:44,720 --> 01:06:47,760
Speaker 1: or you know, maybe it's not even necessary. More. What

1231
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 1: I'm saying is we're putting we're all being put here

1232
01:06:50,160 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 1: in a very difficult situation by these policies which may

1233
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:55,760
Speaker 1: seem well intentioned to, Oh we don't want to air

1234
01:06:55,840 --> 01:06:59,560
Speaker 1: election conspiracy theory. Oh we don't want to aid Russian propaganda.

1235
01:06:59,640 --> 01:07:02,280
Speaker 1: But it has a tremendous impact on people whose job

1236
01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 1: it is to parse and to deliver information to people.

1237
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:08,200
Speaker 1: And it's making it such that we have to play

1238
01:07:08,240 --> 01:07:11,360
Speaker 1: some weird dance, and so does everybody else whenever they're

1239
01:07:11,400 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 1: trying to do this, and it's the worst possible world.

1240
01:07:14,120 --> 01:07:17,280
Speaker 1: It also probably politically beneficial to Trump. Yeah. True. And

1241
01:07:17,440 --> 01:07:20,080
Speaker 1: here's the other piece, and let's transition to our next segment.

1242
01:07:20,560 --> 01:07:23,480
Speaker 1: It would be one thing if the rules were consistent

1243
01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 1: and applied consistently. I would love the censorship. But at

1244
01:07:28,800 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 1: least you could say, Okay, I see how you're doing this.

1245
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:33,720
Speaker 1: I see how you're conducting business. We can all figure

1246
01:07:33,720 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 1: out how to work with this. But here is a

1247
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:41,200
Speaker 1: perfect example of how the rules are applied so haphazardly

1248
01:07:41,320 --> 01:07:44,760
Speaker 1: and are created in such a biased manner. Facebook and

1249
01:07:44,800 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 1: Instagram have decided in certain countries to allow calls for

1250
01:07:49,640 --> 01:07:54,560
Speaker 1: violence against Russians during the war. So here's a little

1251
01:07:54,560 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 1: bit more from that. They say, as a result of

1252
01:07:56,240 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 1: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have temporarily made allowances

1253
01:07:59,440 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 1: for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules,

1254
01:08:02,560 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 1: like violent speech, such as quote death to the Russian invaders.

1255
01:08:07,040 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 1: We still want to allow credible calls for violence against

1256
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:13,680
Speaker 1: Russian civilians. This is according to a Meta spokesperson, Andy Stone.

1257
01:08:14,320 --> 01:08:18,320
Speaker 1: They also will temporarily allow some posts that call for

1258
01:08:18,520 --> 01:08:22,840
Speaker 1: death to Russian President Vladimir Putin or the president of

1259
01:08:22,880 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 1: Belarus Alexander Lukashenko in Russia, Ukraine and Poland. That's according

1260
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 1: to Reuters, citing internal emails detailing the change. Let's go

1261
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:34,280
Speaker 1: ahead and put Ruters up on the screen. Here are

1262
01:08:34,320 --> 01:08:41,320
Speaker 1: the countries that this apparently applies to. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia,

1263
01:08:41,360 --> 01:08:45,360
Speaker 1: Slovakia and Ukraine. There's another piece of this that I'll

1264
01:08:45,400 --> 01:08:48,640
Speaker 1: get to in just a moment. Now, maybe this is

1265
01:08:48,760 --> 01:08:52,759
Speaker 1: a controversial take, but I actually think they should allow

1266
01:08:52,920 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 1: these generalized, non specific calls for violence. I think they

1267
01:08:58,240 --> 01:09:02,760
Speaker 1: should be allowed period. That's more consistent with our own

1268
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:08,280
Speaker 1: First Amendment and rules regarding political speech. It's only when

1269
01:09:08,280 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 1: you get into very specific credible threats that this becomes

1270
01:09:12,240 --> 01:09:16,040
Speaker 1: directly illegal. But the issue here is that you can't

1271
01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:21,360
Speaker 1: just single out one country and one group of people

1272
01:09:22,160 --> 01:09:25,080
Speaker 1: the leader of those countries and say, oh, you can

1273
01:09:25,120 --> 01:09:27,760
Speaker 1: call for violence against them, but nobody else. I mean,

1274
01:09:27,800 --> 01:09:30,559
Speaker 1: that just shows you and you know, adds a lot

1275
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:33,719
Speaker 1: of fuel to the fire of saying at you aren't

1276
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:37,760
Speaker 1: creating consistent standards, You're just doing the bidding of like

1277
01:09:38,080 --> 01:09:41,559
Speaker 1: the US foreign policy establishment. And this isn't the first

1278
01:09:41,560 --> 01:09:44,000
Speaker 1: time that this has happened either. I mean you also

1279
01:09:44,040 --> 01:09:46,800
Speaker 1: see you know, they collaborate with Israel with regards to

1280
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 1: who they should censor. Yeah, who they should censor in Israel.

1281
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:53,559
Speaker 1: You've had a number of these instances where it very

1282
01:09:53,600 --> 01:09:58,360
Speaker 1: clearly seems like they are they are carrying water for

1283
01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:01,799
Speaker 1: the US foreign policy establishment rather than trying to neutrally

1284
01:10:01,880 --> 01:10:04,200
Speaker 1: apply any sort of standard, right, which is that's the

1285
01:10:04,280 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 1: ridiculous part, which is I agree with you. I'm fully

1286
01:10:06,400 --> 01:10:09,120
Speaker 1: for a First Amendment call for anybody. I think most

1287
01:10:09,120 --> 01:10:11,200
Speaker 1: people should be able to say what they want, but

1288
01:10:11,320 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 1: to constrain the values for everybody. But then allow a

1289
01:10:14,280 --> 01:10:17,839
Speaker 1: call for violence to just one group of people, I'm like, Okay,

1290
01:10:18,000 --> 01:10:20,479
Speaker 1: that's pretty crazy. Let's go and put this next one

1291
01:10:20,560 --> 01:10:23,960
Speaker 1: up there. On the screen, which is equally disturbing, which

1292
01:10:24,000 --> 01:10:28,160
Speaker 1: is that before this entire thing began, Facebook temporarily was

1293
01:10:28,200 --> 01:10:32,680
Speaker 1: allowing praise of the neo Nazi Ukrainian Battalion, the Azov Battalion,

1294
01:10:32,920 --> 01:10:37,000
Speaker 1: because it was fighting Russian invasion, and previously the Azov

1295
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:40,600
Speaker 1: Battalion had been included on the company's Dangerous Individuals and

1296
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 1: Organizations policy, and then it was reversed because, oh, now

1297
01:10:44,120 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 1: they're fighting Russia. Okay, I mean, if you're fighting Russia

1298
01:10:48,280 --> 01:10:50,400
Speaker 1: but you're a neo Nazi, does that make you a

1299
01:10:50,400 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 1: good guy. This comes down to the ridiculous nature where

1300
01:10:54,640 --> 01:10:58,519
Speaker 1: Facebook employees are deciding who is praiseworthy who is not.

1301
01:10:59,080 --> 01:11:01,960
Speaker 1: Whenever you're doing one thing bad, but then fighting somebody

1302
01:11:01,960 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 1: who is more bad in your eyes than you're temporary

1303
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 1: allowed to praise them. You can call for violence against Russians,

1304
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:12,720
Speaker 1: but not against other people. It just comes down to

1305
01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:16,920
Speaker 1: a whole scale mania which is sweeping these tech companies

1306
01:11:16,960 --> 01:11:20,880
Speaker 1: as to what exactly is allowed. Everybody, Oh, stop Asian, Hey,

1307
01:11:21,040 --> 01:11:24,960
Speaker 1: Chinese virus was once apparently a racist term, but you know,

1308
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 1: full scale boycott campaigns on Yelp and elsewhere against Russian

1309
01:11:29,280 --> 01:11:32,160
Speaker 1: restaurants which is happening all across this country. Oh, that's

1310
01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:35,520
Speaker 1: totally cool. Yeah, and you know, it just total hypocrisy

1311
01:11:35,720 --> 01:11:38,880
Speaker 1: whenever it comes to the actual enforcement regime on all

1312
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:40,960
Speaker 1: of this. And it just goes to show you that

1313
01:11:41,360 --> 01:11:44,880
Speaker 1: these big companies take their orders direct, not even just

1314
01:11:44,880 --> 01:11:48,759
Speaker 1: from the top, but from like the a morphous social

1315
01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 1: mores of what's considered acceptable or not in the elites.

1316
01:11:52,040 --> 01:11:53,360
Speaker 1: And it just shows us how full of it that

1317
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 1: they actually. Yeah, so in this limited instance, the elite

1318
01:11:56,400 --> 01:12:00,439
Speaker 1: sentiment is like, so okay to Paris, neo Nazi as

1319
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:03,920
Speaker 1: wrong as Yeah, well they're fighting Russians, so we're going

1320
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 1: to allow it for now. They kind of are. They

1321
01:12:07,120 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 1: really are telling on themselves in a lot of way

1322
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:11,200
Speaker 1: right a lot of ways right now. They actually in

1323
01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:15,519
Speaker 1: this intercept report, they have published examples of the speech

1324
01:12:15,640 --> 01:12:20,080
Speaker 1: that Facebook now deems acceptable. With regard to the Azovo

1325
01:12:20,160 --> 01:12:24,879
Speaker 1: Nazi Battalion, they say, Asov movement volunteers are real heroes.

1326
01:12:24,960 --> 01:12:27,559
Speaker 1: They are a much needed support to our national guard.

1327
01:12:28,080 --> 01:12:31,000
Speaker 1: Or you could say we are under attack, Azov has

1328
01:12:31,040 --> 01:12:34,000
Speaker 1: been courageously defending our town for the last six hours.

1329
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:36,640
Speaker 1: Or you could say I think Azov is playing a

1330
01:12:36,720 --> 01:12:40,080
Speaker 1: patriotic role during this crisis. So that's the allowable pro

1331
01:12:40,200 --> 01:12:44,280
Speaker 1: Asov speech, but they write in a tacit acknowledgement of

1332
01:12:44,320 --> 01:12:48,280
Speaker 1: the group's ideology. The memo provides two examples of a

1333
01:12:48,320 --> 01:12:51,000
Speaker 1: posts that would not be allowed under the new policy.

1334
01:12:51,040 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 1: One of them is well done Asov for protecting Ukraine

1335
01:12:54,640 --> 01:12:58,439
Speaker 1: and it's white nationalist heritage. That's what we're talking about. Yeah, Look,

1336
01:12:58,800 --> 01:13:01,519
Speaker 1: in general, I would say as a First Amendment advocate

1337
01:13:01,560 --> 01:13:04,439
Speaker 1: that you should probably be able to say whatever that

1338
01:13:04,560 --> 01:13:09,439
Speaker 1: being said, you can't have these selective enforcement regimes which

1339
01:13:09,479 --> 01:13:11,599
Speaker 1: make it clear that the rules are not rules, they

1340
01:13:11,600 --> 01:13:15,200
Speaker 1: are simply the whims of the liberals who are in charge.

1341
01:13:15,280 --> 01:13:18,160
Speaker 1: And if that is the case, that's very dire for

1342
01:13:18,240 --> 01:13:21,799
Speaker 1: the communication networks of YouTube where millions of people get information,

1343
01:13:22,040 --> 01:13:25,080
Speaker 1: of Facebook where millions of people get information, Twitter and

1344
01:13:25,120 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 1: their enforcement mechanisms, and it just leads to a fundamental

1345
01:13:27,960 --> 01:13:31,880
Speaker 1: distrust in how the information that is being received being

1346
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:35,559
Speaker 1: censored and more, which just leads to a population which

1347
01:13:35,560 --> 01:13:38,679
Speaker 1: when you distrust everything, then you believe nothing, and that's

1348
01:13:38,760 --> 01:13:40,880
Speaker 1: very difficult both to govern yea and in order to

1349
01:13:40,880 --> 01:13:42,760
Speaker 1: live for all of us together in a harmonium and

1350
01:13:42,800 --> 01:13:45,479
Speaker 1: there's so little transparency here. I mean, Reuters had to

1351
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:48,240
Speaker 1: get their hands on internal emails to find this stuff out.

1352
01:13:48,280 --> 01:13:52,160
Speaker 1: And then the blacklist that has all these organizations that

1353
01:13:52,200 --> 01:13:54,000
Speaker 1: you're not allowed to talk about, are not allowed to

1354
01:13:54,040 --> 01:13:57,599
Speaker 1: praise on it. There's no transparency around who's on this list,

1355
01:13:57,600 --> 01:13:59,880
Speaker 1: how where they were chosen, or any of that. You

1356
01:14:00,200 --> 01:14:02,519
Speaker 1: kind of have to, you know, you have to parse

1357
01:14:02,640 --> 01:14:05,400
Speaker 1: and try to figure out how they're making these decisions.

1358
01:14:05,479 --> 01:14:07,160
Speaker 1: And so that's why I say they're really telling on

1359
01:14:07,200 --> 01:14:11,240
Speaker 1: themselves here, because polite society has decided for a moment

1360
01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:14,840
Speaker 1: that it's okay to hate Russian people, call for the

1361
01:14:15,080 --> 01:14:18,280
Speaker 1: violence against them, and to praise this one sect of

1362
01:14:18,520 --> 01:14:21,240
Speaker 1: you know, neo Nazis and neo Nazi aligned figures. Then

1363
01:14:21,280 --> 01:14:25,880
Speaker 1: Facebook's get allowed for now, Crystal, what are you taking

1364
01:14:25,880 --> 01:14:28,720
Speaker 1: a look at? Well, Guys, Before Russia invaded Ukraine and

1365
01:14:28,760 --> 01:14:31,560
Speaker 1: put in directly threatened nuclear war, the Bulletin of the

1366
01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:35,320
Speaker 1: Atomic Scientists sounded an alarm in their annual assessment of

1367
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:38,040
Speaker 1: the risk of apocalypse. They kept the clock at a

1368
01:14:38,360 --> 01:14:42,479
Speaker 1: highly perilous one hundred seconds to midnight. As they wrote

1369
01:14:42,479 --> 01:14:44,960
Speaker 1: at the time, the clock remains the closest it has

1370
01:14:45,000 --> 01:14:49,000
Speaker 1: ever been to civilization ending apocalypse because the world remains

1371
01:14:49,000 --> 01:14:52,320
Speaker 1: stuck in an extremely dangerous moment. You would have to

1372
01:14:52,360 --> 01:14:54,840
Speaker 1: imagine that given how close we've walked to the edge

1373
01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:57,840
Speaker 1: in recent weeks, with the daily risk of a confrontation

1374
01:14:57,960 --> 01:15:02,240
Speaker 1: between the world's two nuclear super hows that metaphorical glock

1375
01:15:02,240 --> 01:15:05,400
Speaker 1: has got to be closer to doomsday than ever before.

1376
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 1: In fact, a viral Twitter thread asked this terrifying question

1377
01:15:08,560 --> 01:15:11,680
Speaker 1: that I've personally been contemplating myself a lot recently. Are

1378
01:15:11,720 --> 01:15:15,599
Speaker 1: we sleepwalking towards nuclear war? Mark Linus. He's a science

1379
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:18,880
Speaker 1: writer and environmental activist. He writes, with each new Russian

1380
01:15:18,880 --> 01:15:22,280
Speaker 1: atrocity in Ukraine, calls for NATO intervention increase. Are we

1381
01:15:22,360 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 1: sleepwalking towards nuclear war? The appetite for risk is increasing

1382
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:29,720
Speaker 1: with the horror of civilian casualties. Putin is cornered and

1383
01:15:29,720 --> 01:15:33,760
Speaker 1: may escalate. What's the worst that can happen? And right

1384
01:15:33,800 --> 01:15:38,560
Speaker 1: on cue, just listen to the utter madness being spouted

1385
01:15:38,680 --> 01:15:41,000
Speaker 1: by one of the most dangerous neo cons on the planet.

1386
01:15:41,120 --> 01:15:44,280
Speaker 1: That would be Senator Lindsay Graham. He rejects the potential

1387
01:15:44,280 --> 01:15:47,840
Speaker 1: piece deal angles for a no fly zone, casually dismisses

1388
01:15:47,840 --> 01:15:50,320
Speaker 1: the possibility such actions could land US in World War three,

1389
01:15:50,360 --> 01:15:53,679
Speaker 1: and once again calls for the Russian people to assassinate Putin.

1390
01:15:54,479 --> 01:15:57,559
Speaker 1: So I will be dead said against any deal that

1391
01:15:57,760 --> 01:16:01,639
Speaker 1: requires the Ukrainian people to reconney. Half of the Ukraine

1392
01:16:01,760 --> 01:16:04,599
Speaker 1: belongs to Russia by force of arms. And if there's

1393
01:16:04,640 --> 01:16:07,760
Speaker 1: any chemical weapons used by Putin that would be a

1394
01:16:07,800 --> 01:16:10,160
Speaker 1: war crime, and I would be supportive of a no

1395
01:16:10,320 --> 01:16:13,639
Speaker 1: fly zone as response to that. You see war crimes

1396
01:16:13,680 --> 01:16:16,840
Speaker 1: being committed in front of you on television every day

1397
01:16:17,080 --> 01:16:21,759
Speaker 1: in Ukraine. Can't the US and NATO allies do more? Yeah,

1398
01:16:22,080 --> 01:16:26,120
Speaker 1: without turning this centuation, we could if we had. Well,

1399
01:16:26,120 --> 01:16:28,200
Speaker 1: it's not going to be world War three. You know,

1400
01:16:28,320 --> 01:16:31,360
Speaker 1: this is all of bluff. Putin knows that no one

1401
01:16:31,439 --> 01:16:34,719
Speaker 1: wins a nuclear exchange, so if he ordered a print

1402
01:16:34,720 --> 01:16:37,040
Speaker 1: to strike on the United States, some general would shoot

1403
01:16:37,080 --> 01:16:40,320
Speaker 1: him in the head. I'm calling for the crushing of

1404
01:16:40,360 --> 01:16:43,640
Speaker 1: the Russian economy even though our war in fight is

1405
01:16:43,720 --> 01:16:46,559
Speaker 1: not with the Russian people, it is with Putin, and

1406
01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:49,679
Speaker 1: the only way this war ends is with Putin either

1407
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:52,280
Speaker 1: going to jail or be taken out on people. How

1408
01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: do you make that happen. You have the Ukrainians, they

1409
01:16:55,360 --> 01:16:59,840
Speaker 1: need bigs, terrifying rhetoric there now. In a lot of ways,

1410
01:17:00,000 --> 01:17:01,559
Speaker 1: this is all kind of new terrain for anyone my

1411
01:17:01,640 --> 01:17:05,680
Speaker 1: generation or younger. We've grown up accustomed to planetary doomsday scenarios,

1412
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:08,520
Speaker 1: but more of the climate variety, not so much nuclear holocaust.

1413
01:17:08,960 --> 01:17:11,200
Speaker 1: The Cuban missile crisis, that was something we learned about

1414
01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:14,080
Speaker 1: in history classes long after the visceral terror of that

1415
01:17:14,160 --> 01:17:16,800
Speaker 1: moment had passed. As we came of age. The Cold

1416
01:17:16,880 --> 01:17:19,479
Speaker 1: War arms race had ended, as the Soviet Union collapsed,

1417
01:17:19,520 --> 01:17:23,559
Speaker 1: the language non proliferation treaties and nuclear deterrence kind of

1418
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:27,200
Speaker 1: receded from the public square. Older generations were both more

1419
01:17:27,240 --> 01:17:30,400
Speaker 1: aware of this threat and more poisoned by Cold War ideology,

1420
01:17:30,439 --> 01:17:32,599
Speaker 1: committed to the arms race and to a mccarthur's view

1421
01:17:32,640 --> 01:17:35,640
Speaker 1: of the world, so that today public point reflects that

1422
01:17:35,720 --> 01:17:37,800
Speaker 1: the older you are, the more likely you are to

1423
01:17:37,840 --> 01:17:39,920
Speaker 1: take a hawk issue of this conflict and back the

1424
01:17:39,960 --> 01:17:43,960
Speaker 1: most escalatory measures. Given this landscape, the loss of the

1425
01:17:44,040 --> 01:17:46,679
Speaker 1: visceral sense of the threat, the hard baked cold War sentiment,

1426
01:17:46,800 --> 01:17:49,200
Speaker 1: we shouldn't be surprised. I guess that calls are growing

1427
01:17:49,240 --> 01:17:52,400
Speaker 1: louder and louder to quote do more. This is something

1428
01:17:52,439 --> 01:17:55,000
Speaker 1: we've been tracking really closely here. The mania that's taken

1429
01:17:55,000 --> 01:17:58,280
Speaker 1: hold with shocking levels of anti Russian bigotry and comprehensibly

1430
01:17:58,360 --> 01:18:01,519
Speaker 1: large and rapid arm shipments, and the most draconian sanctions

1431
01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:05,160
Speaker 1: on the planet and possibly in history. The emotional manipulation

1432
01:18:05,240 --> 01:18:08,479
Speaker 1: of human interest stories, lacking any counterbalancing narrative of just

1433
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:12,800
Speaker 1: how catastrophic a more direct intervention would ultimately be. Huge

1434
01:18:12,840 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 1: percentages of the public backing World wars reinducing actions like

1435
01:18:15,880 --> 01:18:18,360
Speaker 1: a no fly zone because of the media driven frenzy,

1436
01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:22,160
Speaker 1: and Asagre's covering today, the desire amongst some media figures

1437
01:18:22,240 --> 01:18:25,719
Speaker 1: to rehab Hitler not kidding in order to make Putin's

1438
01:18:25,760 --> 01:18:29,479
Speaker 1: attack on Ukraine worse than the Holocaust. Biden, thank god,

1439
01:18:29,560 --> 01:18:32,640
Speaker 1: seems to at least partially understand just how perilous the

1440
01:18:32,640 --> 01:18:35,360
Speaker 1: moment we're in, saying clearly we will not fight World

1441
01:18:35,400 --> 01:18:38,800
Speaker 1: War three in Ukraine, but that hasn't stopped him from

1442
01:18:38,800 --> 01:18:41,880
Speaker 1: taking actions against Russia which were previously unthinkable and which

1443
01:18:41,920 --> 01:18:44,880
Speaker 1: have truly pushed us to the brink of catastrophe. Not

1444
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:47,280
Speaker 1: to mention the foolish legal commitments we have made to

1445
01:18:47,320 --> 01:18:50,800
Speaker 1: militarily defend all thirty members of NATO should Russia move

1446
01:18:50,840 --> 01:18:54,080
Speaker 1: beyond Ukraine. We are now just starting to see Russia's

1447
01:18:54,120 --> 01:18:58,200
Speaker 1: response to our actions so far. So in response to

1448
01:18:58,240 --> 01:19:00,559
Speaker 1: the hundreds of millions of dollars of US and arms

1449
01:19:00,560 --> 01:19:03,879
Speaker 1: which have flooded into Ukraine, Russia is now directly threatening

1450
01:19:03,920 --> 01:19:07,400
Speaker 1: the convoys carrying those arms. Their deputy Foreign minister informed

1451
01:19:07,400 --> 01:19:10,559
Speaker 1: the Biden endmen that those convoys are quote legitimate targets

1452
01:19:10,560 --> 01:19:15,240
Speaker 1: for attacks. Potential disaster was narrowly averted last week when

1453
01:19:15,280 --> 01:19:17,960
Speaker 1: Biden personally sank the deal to provide fighter just to

1454
01:19:18,000 --> 01:19:21,880
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians, an insane move that Tony Blinkin, Secretary of State,

1455
01:19:21,920 --> 01:19:25,559
Speaker 1: and other high level officials reportedly were pushing for now.

1456
01:19:25,680 --> 01:19:29,080
Speaker 1: In response to our indiscriminate economic sanctions targeting everyone from

1457
01:19:29,120 --> 01:19:32,880
Speaker 1: oligarchs to babushkas, Russia has declared what should be obvious,

1458
01:19:33,040 --> 01:19:35,679
Speaker 1: that they consider our sanctions to be an overt act

1459
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:39,599
Speaker 1: of war. At the same time, they're potentially scuttling one

1460
01:19:39,600 --> 01:19:42,719
Speaker 1: of the greatest accomplishments of non proliferation, the re entry

1461
01:19:42,760 --> 01:19:46,439
Speaker 1: into the Obama era nuclear agreement with Iran. Russia is

1462
01:19:46,479 --> 01:19:50,200
Speaker 1: demanding sanctions relief as part of the new JCPOA, asking

1463
01:19:50,240 --> 01:19:53,360
Speaker 1: for a written commitment that their ability to quote have free,

1464
01:19:53,360 --> 01:19:57,000
Speaker 1: fully fledged trade and economic and investment cooperation and military

1465
01:19:57,040 --> 01:20:01,320
Speaker 1: technical cooperation with Iran is guaranteed. The US says this

1466
01:20:01,360 --> 01:20:03,680
Speaker 1: is a non starter and an ominous sign that we

1467
01:20:03,760 --> 01:20:06,880
Speaker 1: covered earlier. Iran's Revolutionary Guard took credit for a series

1468
01:20:06,920 --> 01:20:09,200
Speaker 1: of as many as twelve missiles which were just fired

1469
01:20:09,200 --> 01:20:12,960
Speaker 1: from Iran towards a US consulate in Iraq. So this

1470
01:20:13,040 --> 01:20:15,719
Speaker 1: is the landscape that we are all sleep walking through,

1471
01:20:15,920 --> 01:20:19,599
Speaker 1: one littered with land mines and nuclear trip wires. Let

1472
01:20:19,640 --> 01:20:24,479
Speaker 1: me be absolutely clear, Putin's bluster may be exactly that.

1473
01:20:24,800 --> 01:20:27,479
Speaker 1: Lindsey Graham's claim that on nuke's Putin's all bark and

1474
01:20:27,560 --> 01:20:30,639
Speaker 1: no bite it could be correct. But none of us

1475
01:20:30,840 --> 01:20:33,200
Speaker 1: should be willing to bear even the shred of a

1476
01:20:33,320 --> 01:20:36,880
Speaker 1: chance that Putin is crazy enough and nihilistic enough to

1477
01:20:36,920 --> 01:20:40,120
Speaker 1: actually do it, and none of us should delude ourselves

1478
01:20:40,240 --> 01:20:44,880
Speaker 1: about exactly what that means. Our bummings of Hiroshima and

1479
01:20:45,000 --> 01:20:48,679
Speaker 1: Nagasaki still stand as the only use of nuclear weapons

1480
01:20:48,720 --> 01:20:52,200
Speaker 1: in conflict. We murdered hundreds of thousands of Japanese civilians,

1481
01:20:52,240 --> 01:20:54,920
Speaker 1: and the results were so devastating that they were hidden

1482
01:20:54,960 --> 01:20:58,479
Speaker 1: from the American public for decades. Extensive film footage that

1483
01:20:58,560 --> 01:21:00,759
Speaker 1: was recorded by the Japanese and buyers our own military

1484
01:21:00,760 --> 01:21:04,400
Speaker 1: of the immediate aftermath was classified. In fact, it's never

1485
01:21:04,439 --> 01:21:08,200
Speaker 1: been viewed by the public in its entirety. Newspaper articles

1486
01:21:08,200 --> 01:21:10,839
Speaker 1: about that devastation they were completely quashed as an airtight

1487
01:21:10,920 --> 01:21:13,479
Speaker 1: lid was sealed over the atrocities which we had committed,

1488
01:21:13,840 --> 01:21:17,240
Speaker 1: substituted instead with the rather antiseptic image of the fearsome

1489
01:21:17,320 --> 01:21:21,160
Speaker 1: mushroom cloud. The former editor of Nuclear Times magazine interviewed

1490
01:21:21,160 --> 01:21:23,680
Speaker 1: the man who oversaw the filming and the cover up.

1491
01:21:23,920 --> 01:21:26,400
Speaker 1: He said, quote, I always had the sense that people

1492
01:21:26,439 --> 01:21:29,000
Speaker 1: in the Atomic Energy Commission were sorry we had dropped

1493
01:21:29,040 --> 01:21:31,240
Speaker 1: the bomb. The Air Force it was also sorry. I

1494
01:21:31,280 --> 01:21:33,120
Speaker 1: was told by people in the Pentagon that they didn't

1495
01:21:33,160 --> 01:21:36,920
Speaker 1: want those film images out because they showed effects on man, woman,

1496
01:21:37,040 --> 01:21:39,519
Speaker 1: and child. They didn't want the general public to know

1497
01:21:39,600 --> 01:21:41,400
Speaker 1: what their weapons had done at a time they were

1498
01:21:41,439 --> 01:21:44,240
Speaker 1: planning on war bomb tests. We didn't want the material

1499
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:48,000
Speaker 1: out because we were sorry for our sins. I don't

1500
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:50,800
Speaker 1: know about sorry for our sins, but it's clear such

1501
01:21:50,800 --> 01:21:53,559
Speaker 1: images could have led to a public uprising against our

1502
01:21:53,600 --> 01:21:56,639
Speaker 1: policy of nuclear arms race. And keep in mind those

1503
01:21:56,680 --> 01:22:00,519
Speaker 1: bombs were nothing compared to the capabilities of today. Returning

1504
01:22:00,520 --> 01:22:02,919
Speaker 1: to our viral Twitter thread, Mark lays out what scientists

1505
01:22:02,920 --> 01:22:05,920
Speaker 1: say a nuclear war would look like today. So in

1506
01:22:05,960 --> 01:22:08,439
Speaker 1: a scenario where the US and Russia deployed half of

1507
01:22:08,479 --> 01:22:12,160
Speaker 1: our nuclear arsenal quote, about seven hundred and seventy million

1508
01:22:12,160 --> 01:22:16,639
Speaker 1: people would immediately die from the blast. Acute radiation sickness

1509
01:22:16,680 --> 01:22:18,960
Speaker 1: in just the first few days would take out many

1510
01:22:19,000 --> 01:22:21,920
Speaker 1: of those. But that's not even the worst impact. Soot

1511
01:22:22,000 --> 01:22:25,360
Speaker 1: from firestorms would circle the globe, destroying the ozone, mostly

1512
01:22:25,400 --> 01:22:28,800
Speaker 1: blocking out the sun and leading to mass crop failures

1513
01:22:28,840 --> 01:22:33,839
Speaker 1: and famine. Over five years, almost everyone in places like China, Russia,

1514
01:22:34,000 --> 01:22:36,400
Speaker 1: the UK, and the US will starve to death as

1515
01:22:36,439 --> 01:22:41,400
Speaker 1: food supplies rapidly disappear. Some small percentage of humans will

1516
01:22:41,400 --> 01:22:45,519
Speaker 1: continue the species in the now barren wasteland of planet Earth,

1517
01:22:45,920 --> 01:22:49,679
Speaker 1: but their daily miserable, violent struggle for survival will hardly

1518
01:22:49,760 --> 01:22:53,160
Speaker 1: be a fate worth en being. Painting the picture of

1519
01:22:53,200 --> 01:22:55,599
Speaker 1: nuclear armageddon. To be honest with you, it can make

1520
01:22:55,640 --> 01:22:58,760
Speaker 1: you sound like a crazy person, a hysterical loon, who will,

1521
01:22:58,760 --> 01:23:02,479
Speaker 1: in all likelihood hopefully be proven wrong. As history marches

1522
01:23:02,520 --> 01:23:05,080
Speaker 1: on towards our more likely fate of decline brought on

1523
01:23:05,120 --> 01:23:08,160
Speaker 1: by the less instantaneous threat from the climate crisis, but

1524
01:23:08,280 --> 01:23:13,360
Speaker 1: as world historic idiots like Lindsey Graham casually dismiss this

1525
01:23:13,439 --> 01:23:16,200
Speaker 1: threat as fake, and the drum beat to quote do

1526
01:23:16,439 --> 01:23:19,880
Speaker 1: more grows louder. We've got to face with clear eyes

1527
01:23:19,960 --> 01:23:23,839
Speaker 1: what that could actually mean. The chance might be small,

1528
01:23:23,960 --> 01:23:27,680
Speaker 1: it might be tiny, but the results are so devastating

1529
01:23:27,800 --> 01:23:32,200
Speaker 1: they should thoroughly consume us. All. If we are sleepwalking

1530
01:23:32,280 --> 01:23:36,240
Speaker 1: towards nuclear war, it is well pastime we all sound

1531
01:23:36,240 --> 01:23:39,720
Speaker 1: the alarm to wake the hell up. And I think

1532
01:23:39,760 --> 01:23:42,400
Speaker 1: we have tried to carry this message a number of times.

1533
01:23:42,680 --> 01:23:45,800
Speaker 1: The chance might be small, you might be right. And

1534
01:23:45,840 --> 01:23:48,559
Speaker 1: if you want to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue,

1535
01:23:48,560 --> 01:23:55,280
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. All right, Sager,

1536
01:23:55,320 --> 01:23:57,080
Speaker 1: what are we looking at? Well, a few weeks ago,

1537
01:23:57,120 --> 01:23:59,519
Speaker 1: before the crisis began, I issued a warning here not

1538
01:23:59,600 --> 01:24:02,680
Speaker 1: everything as Hitler people. There are actually many other parallels

1539
01:24:02,720 --> 01:24:05,360
Speaker 1: of history of the European continent that you can compare

1540
01:24:05,400 --> 01:24:08,879
Speaker 1: the current Russia Ukraine War two especially, you know, actual

1541
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:12,600
Speaker 1: wars fought between Russia and Ukraine. But that nuance is

1542
01:24:12,640 --> 01:24:14,960
Speaker 1: lost on the media. It's lost even on the so

1543
01:24:15,040 --> 01:24:18,080
Speaker 1: called expert class. And what transpired over the weekend in

1544
01:24:18,120 --> 01:24:20,720
Speaker 1: one of the most revolting but important episodes that we've

1545
01:24:20,720 --> 01:24:23,080
Speaker 1: seen in media for some time. Let's start with how

1546
01:24:23,120 --> 01:24:26,759
Speaker 1: it all began. Former US Ambassadors to Russia, Michael McFall,

1547
01:24:26,840 --> 01:24:28,920
Speaker 1: a Russia gator and a warhawk in his own right,

1548
01:24:29,160 --> 01:24:32,320
Speaker 1: went on Rachel Maddow's program to castigate Joe Biden for

1549
01:24:32,360 --> 01:24:35,080
Speaker 1: declaring that the US will never put boots on the

1550
01:24:35,080 --> 01:24:38,439
Speaker 1: ground in Ukraine. In it, he intimated that Putin is

1551
01:24:38,479 --> 01:24:41,800
Speaker 1: actually much worse than Hitler. No, I'm not kidding. Let's

1552
01:24:41,800 --> 01:24:43,960
Speaker 1: take a listen, And I want to just say one

1553
01:24:43,960 --> 01:24:47,040
Speaker 1: other thing. I was just on Ukrainian television just thirty

1554
01:24:47,080 --> 01:24:51,000
Speaker 1: minutes ago, brave journalists just like our team covering the

1555
01:24:51,040 --> 01:24:54,439
Speaker 1: war there in Kiev, and one of the commentators said

1556
01:24:54,479 --> 01:24:58,960
Speaker 1: something interesting about how horrific this war is. And remember

1557
01:24:59,000 --> 01:25:02,559
Speaker 1: these are people where who suffered under fascism, that fought

1558
01:25:02,560 --> 01:25:06,280
Speaker 1: the Nazis. He was the Nazis state that then the

1559
01:25:06,320 --> 01:25:09,920
Speaker 1: Red Army came back through. One of the Russian journalists said,

1560
01:25:09,960 --> 01:25:12,880
Speaker 1: you know, there's one difference between Hitler when he was

1561
01:25:12,920 --> 01:25:18,599
Speaker 1: coming in and Putin. Hitler didn't kill ethnic Germans, didn't

1562
01:25:18,720 --> 01:25:22,200
Speaker 1: He didn't kill Germans speaking people. That's a very I

1563
01:25:22,280 --> 01:25:24,400
Speaker 1: think people need to remember that when we're talking about

1564
01:25:24,400 --> 01:25:29,160
Speaker 1: cities like Harky and Mariupol and Kiev, there are large

1565
01:25:29,240 --> 01:25:33,120
Speaker 1: populations there, you know, up to a third and sometimes

1566
01:25:33,120 --> 01:25:35,960
Speaker 1: as much to a half that are Russian speakers and

1567
01:25:36,000 --> 01:25:39,000
Speaker 1: are ethnic Russians, and yet Putin doesn't seem to care

1568
01:25:39,040 --> 01:25:42,360
Speaker 1: about that. He slaughters the very people he said he

1569
01:25:42,400 --> 01:25:47,000
Speaker 1: has calm, deliberate. Oh my god, there's so much unpack there.

1570
01:25:47,120 --> 01:25:49,519
Speaker 1: Hitler didn't kill ethnic Germans. There are a lot of

1571
01:25:49,520 --> 01:25:52,439
Speaker 1: disabled or resistance fighting Germans who might disagree with that.

1572
01:25:52,640 --> 01:25:55,160
Speaker 1: There are also, you know, several hundred thousand ethnic German

1573
01:25:55,240 --> 01:25:58,559
Speaker 1: Jews unavailable to comment, as even the Auschwitz memorial highlight

1574
01:25:58,840 --> 01:26:01,719
Speaker 1: in those big highlighted in the ignorant comments. But beyond

1575
01:26:01,720 --> 01:26:04,280
Speaker 1: the reason to just show you how dumb these people are,

1576
01:26:04,680 --> 01:26:06,880
Speaker 1: is to considered that these are the people we are

1577
01:26:06,920 --> 01:26:10,120
Speaker 1: being led by, have led us, or are being led

1578
01:26:10,160 --> 01:26:13,240
Speaker 1: by right Now. That man was the US Ambassador to

1579
01:26:13,360 --> 01:26:17,000
Speaker 1: Russia under Barack Obama. He went on national television to

1580
01:26:17,040 --> 01:26:20,400
Speaker 1: say that Vladimir Putin is worse than Hitler. Why because,

1581
01:26:20,400 --> 01:26:24,680
Speaker 1: aside from his historical ignorant nonsense, mcfall's statement is calculated

1582
01:26:24,720 --> 01:26:27,519
Speaker 1: to make you believe, if Putin is worse than Hitler,

1583
01:26:27,720 --> 01:26:30,360
Speaker 1: we have no options but to fight him in Ukraine

1584
01:26:30,560 --> 01:26:33,400
Speaker 1: and declare World War III. You can choose to see

1585
01:26:33,400 --> 01:26:36,040
Speaker 1: this as an isolated incident, or you can recognize the

1586
01:26:36,160 --> 01:26:39,160
Speaker 1: underlying danger in the mindset. The reason I see that

1587
01:26:39,479 --> 01:26:41,880
Speaker 1: is because people who are so called Russia experts, with

1588
01:26:41,960 --> 01:26:45,479
Speaker 1: real influence over our discourse in our relations with that country,

1589
01:26:45,680 --> 01:26:50,360
Speaker 1: are insanely coming out to defend mcfall's statement. Anders ostlind Is,

1590
01:26:50,400 --> 01:26:54,080
Speaker 1: the author of an influential book on Russian crony capitalism, wrote, quote,

1591
01:26:54,200 --> 01:26:58,759
Speaker 1: Hitler recognized Poland but called for concessions. Putting absurdly claims

1592
01:26:58,800 --> 01:27:02,160
Speaker 1: that Ukraine is not a state. Putin absurdly claims Hitler

1593
01:27:02,200 --> 01:27:05,760
Speaker 1: had left the League of Nations. Putin violates every international

1594
01:27:05,800 --> 01:27:09,080
Speaker 1: law there is. Hitler did not use chemical weapons. Putin

1595
01:27:09,240 --> 01:27:12,879
Speaker 1: is preparing to do so. Obviously, six million Jews disagree

1596
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:15,719
Speaker 1: with that chemical weapons point. But does history even matter?

1597
01:27:15,920 --> 01:27:18,840
Speaker 1: This is not an isolated incident, pavel Meyer. He's a

1598
01:27:18,880 --> 01:27:21,760
Speaker 1: former lawmaker in Germany. He jumped in as well to

1599
01:27:21,800 --> 01:27:24,639
Speaker 1: the discourse, noting quote Hitler did not use his office

1600
01:27:24,640 --> 01:27:27,360
Speaker 1: to extract bribes and get into bed with organized crime,

1601
01:27:27,640 --> 01:27:30,040
Speaker 1: so we could say in terms of civic values, Hitler

1602
01:27:30,120 --> 01:27:32,760
Speaker 1: was even a more decent person than Putin. Is as

1603
01:27:32,800 --> 01:27:36,160
Speaker 1: crazy as that sounds, Yeah, it sounds pretty crazy, my dude.

1604
01:27:36,400 --> 01:27:39,839
Speaker 1: Once again, you are witnessing before you a concerted campaign

1605
01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:43,600
Speaker 1: to get associational thinking between Hitler and Putin. If that

1606
01:27:43,680 --> 01:27:47,000
Speaker 1: is accomplished, then you of course have the response. It's simple,

1607
01:27:47,120 --> 01:27:50,120
Speaker 1: you declare war. It has to be stopped. I find

1608
01:27:50,120 --> 01:27:53,439
Speaker 1: this so dangerous because in mcfall's case, he is a

1609
01:27:53,479 --> 01:27:56,960
Speaker 1: professor at Sandford. He was inside the situation room helping

1610
01:27:57,240 --> 01:28:00,519
Speaker 1: make decisions less than a decade ago. How many more

1611
01:28:00,520 --> 01:28:03,240
Speaker 1: of his ilk are inside the government right now. You

1612
01:28:03,320 --> 01:28:05,920
Speaker 1: might cringe at what he's saying, but they agree with him,

1613
01:28:05,960 --> 01:28:08,720
Speaker 1: at least on the merits. That's the cost of Russiagate,

1614
01:28:09,400 --> 01:28:13,640
Speaker 1: the elevation of legitimately insane people to the front of

1615
01:28:13,680 --> 01:28:16,720
Speaker 1: the national stage. Who the MSNBC audience has now been

1616
01:28:16,720 --> 01:28:19,680
Speaker 1: conditioned to trust. McFall has been a fixture now on

1617
01:28:19,760 --> 01:28:22,960
Speaker 1: TV for nearly five years. The audience is built to

1618
01:28:23,040 --> 01:28:25,160
Speaker 1: trust what he has to say. He is the face

1619
01:28:25,200 --> 01:28:27,920
Speaker 1: of a number of russigators who are pushing full scale

1620
01:28:27,920 --> 01:28:31,280
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. Look no further. Alexander Vinman. You'll all

1621
01:28:31,280 --> 01:28:34,679
Speaker 1: remember him. He was a supposedly heroic whistleblower. He sparked

1622
01:28:34,800 --> 01:28:38,759
Speaker 1: Ukraine Gate and the impeachment of Donald Trump in twenty nineteen. Well,

1623
01:28:39,000 --> 01:28:43,679
Speaker 1: mister Vinman, now having left government, is openly criticizing President

1624
01:28:43,760 --> 01:28:46,160
Speaker 1: Biden for tweeting that the US will not fight a

1625
01:28:46,200 --> 01:28:50,000
Speaker 1: war with Russia and Ukraine. Vinman writes, quote, mister President,

1626
01:28:50,040 --> 01:28:54,519
Speaker 1: you're inviting disaster and emboldening Putin. This declaration invites Putin

1627
01:28:54,560 --> 01:28:57,240
Speaker 1: to pursue every means to subdue Ukraine. Of course, the

1628
01:28:57,280 --> 01:28:59,800
Speaker 1: American people don't want war with Russia, but they also

1629
01:28:59,840 --> 01:29:03,759
Speaker 1: know want to watch Ukrainian slaughtered. We must do more, Okay,

1630
01:29:03,760 --> 01:29:07,599
Speaker 1: mister Finman, what does do more mean? They never tell

1631
01:29:07,640 --> 01:29:09,760
Speaker 1: you that, because it means you might have to die

1632
01:29:09,960 --> 01:29:13,200
Speaker 1: for their insanity, You might say, Sager, none of this matters.

1633
01:29:13,320 --> 01:29:15,720
Speaker 1: Joe Biden is clearly not listening to these people, and

1634
01:29:15,720 --> 01:29:18,479
Speaker 1: I would say, thank God, you're right for now, But

1635
01:29:18,600 --> 01:29:22,120
Speaker 1: again and again, I've been terrified of this possibility. Joe

1636
01:29:22,160 --> 01:29:24,800
Speaker 1: Biden is an old man. It's not a secret. He's

1637
01:29:24,800 --> 01:29:28,439
Speaker 1: nearly eighty years old, and he's clearly physically flagging his

1638
01:29:28,760 --> 01:29:32,120
Speaker 1: seventy nine year old, barely beating heart. Is the only

1639
01:29:32,160 --> 01:29:35,519
Speaker 1: thing standing in the way of Kamala Harris becoming the president.

1640
01:29:35,680 --> 01:29:37,719
Speaker 1: And if you think she has the stomach to stand

1641
01:29:37,800 --> 01:29:40,920
Speaker 1: up to that level of institutional insanity, you are dead,

1642
01:29:41,400 --> 01:29:44,320
Speaker 1: dead wrong. I have found it incredibly difficult to parse

1643
01:29:44,360 --> 01:29:46,240
Speaker 1: what's going on in the last two weeks. I feel

1644
01:29:46,240 --> 01:29:49,160
Speaker 1: as if I'm on an island. It's okay to recognize

1645
01:29:49,160 --> 01:29:51,960
Speaker 1: that Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a terrible act which

1646
01:29:51,960 --> 01:29:54,800
Speaker 1: should invite a response. It's also okay to say that

1647
01:29:54,840 --> 01:29:57,759
Speaker 1: the US should not actively engage in any escalatory behavior

1648
01:29:57,920 --> 01:30:00,719
Speaker 1: to increase the risk of a nuclear confrontation against Russia.

1649
01:30:00,760 --> 01:30:02,960
Speaker 1: And I think it should also be okay to discuss

1650
01:30:03,040 --> 01:30:05,600
Speaker 1: openly in public the utility and the efficacy of the

1651
01:30:05,640 --> 01:30:08,600
Speaker 1: sanctions that we have deployed in their possible follow on effects.

1652
01:30:09,040 --> 01:30:12,559
Speaker 1: None of that is represented in our public discourse today.

1653
01:30:12,840 --> 01:30:15,120
Speaker 1: What I know is that though it may seem popular

1654
01:30:15,120 --> 01:30:17,280
Speaker 1: and in vogue to beat the war drums and scream

1655
01:30:17,320 --> 01:30:20,080
Speaker 1: at anyone who disagrees with you, that the consequences of

1656
01:30:20,240 --> 01:30:23,200
Speaker 1: not engaging in a thoughtful debate are dire. Look no

1657
01:30:23,280 --> 01:30:25,600
Speaker 1: further in our current history than the build up to

1658
01:30:25,640 --> 01:30:27,559
Speaker 1: the war in Iraq, or even in the build up

1659
01:30:27,600 --> 01:30:30,360
Speaker 1: to the war in Vietnam. In both cases, we saw

1660
01:30:30,479 --> 01:30:33,920
Speaker 1: Hitler and Munich analogies being deployed by the presidents. We

1661
01:30:33,960 --> 01:30:36,439
Speaker 1: saw large public support for the wars, and we saw

1662
01:30:36,520 --> 01:30:40,280
Speaker 1: the American people's good will misused against them. Today we

1663
01:30:40,320 --> 01:30:43,400
Speaker 1: see widespread public support for punishing Putin. We can only

1664
01:30:43,479 --> 01:30:46,080
Speaker 1: hope that the American people's good will is not yet

1665
01:30:46,120 --> 01:30:49,479
Speaker 1: again squandered, but the media environment today shows that that

1666
01:30:49,640 --> 01:30:51,720
Speaker 1: is very unlikely. I mean, the Vinmin thing is a

1667
01:30:51,720 --> 01:30:54,000
Speaker 1: perfect example, right, which is that this guy who's a

1668
01:30:54,000 --> 01:30:57,760
Speaker 1: hero and if you want to hear my reaction to

1669
01:30:57,800 --> 01:31:01,360
Speaker 1: Sager's monologue, become a premium subscribe. Were today at breakingpoints

1670
01:31:01,400 --> 01:31:06,439
Speaker 1: dot com. Joining us now is Skanda Amarnath. He's the

1671
01:31:06,479 --> 01:31:09,320
Speaker 1: executive director of Employe America and he's out with an

1672
01:31:09,320 --> 01:31:11,840
Speaker 1: interesting new plan in order to take on the gas

1673
01:31:11,840 --> 01:31:14,360
Speaker 1: price crisis. Let's put this up there on the screen.

1674
01:31:14,479 --> 01:31:18,720
Speaker 1: Caught my eye, an actually useful, actionable report here on

1675
01:31:18,760 --> 01:31:22,360
Speaker 1: what exactly the Biden administration can do via executive order.

1676
01:31:22,479 --> 01:31:24,840
Speaker 1: It's Kanda, thank you so much for joining the show,

1677
01:31:25,120 --> 01:31:28,120
Speaker 1: go ahead and outline for us here how the Biden

1678
01:31:28,160 --> 01:31:31,839
Speaker 1: administration could, if they want, actually take on gas prices

1679
01:31:31,840 --> 01:31:34,880
Speaker 1: at the at the pump for the vast majority of Americans.

1680
01:31:35,760 --> 01:31:38,519
Speaker 1: So thanks for having me on, Crystal and Tzager. The

1681
01:31:38,640 --> 01:31:43,439
Speaker 1: plan is threefold, right, so there is providing certainty about demand,

1682
01:31:44,120 --> 01:31:50,280
Speaker 1: providing certainty about financing, and providing certainty about the supply chains. Now,

1683
01:31:50,320 --> 01:31:52,640
Speaker 1: I'm not going to say that the Biden administration has

1684
01:31:52,680 --> 01:31:55,720
Speaker 1: perfect authority in all these spaces, but they have authority

1685
01:31:55,720 --> 01:31:58,120
Speaker 1: that can move the needle. And right now what we

1686
01:31:58,160 --> 01:32:01,160
Speaker 1: see is obviously a pretty big imbalance between supplying demand

1687
01:32:01,160 --> 01:32:04,400
Speaker 1: and sort of crude oil markets right now, Russian supply

1688
01:32:04,479 --> 01:32:09,880
Speaker 1: coming offline as it is. US production was lagging after

1689
01:32:09,880 --> 01:32:12,800
Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen crisis hit. So we have had US

1690
01:32:12,880 --> 01:32:15,800
Speaker 1: production that hasn't really ramped up, and we need to

1691
01:32:15,840 --> 01:32:20,559
Speaker 1: provide more certainty about how we get investment and production

1692
01:32:20,720 --> 01:32:24,760
Speaker 1: to really ramp up. For in the United States. Right now,

1693
01:32:24,800 --> 01:32:27,160
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of focus on all the things

1694
01:32:27,160 --> 01:32:29,960
Speaker 1: that the US could do to lower gas prices that

1695
01:32:30,000 --> 01:32:34,200
Speaker 1: are kind of hitting at various sides of this, but

1696
01:32:34,240 --> 01:32:37,599
Speaker 1: not directly. And I would say if we actually were

1697
01:32:37,800 --> 01:32:42,000
Speaker 1: creating the sort of direction and incentive for investment to

1698
01:32:42,000 --> 01:32:45,400
Speaker 1: take place, that's one big part of the equation. I like,

1699
01:32:45,680 --> 01:32:47,880
Speaker 1: just we need we need a certain amount of oil

1700
01:32:47,920 --> 01:32:50,400
Speaker 1: for a certain amount of transportation demand to maintain a

1701
01:32:50,400 --> 01:32:53,479
Speaker 1: certain standard of living right now. Obviously in the future

1702
01:32:53,520 --> 01:32:57,799
Speaker 1: that can change. But to do that we need demand certainty,

1703
01:32:57,800 --> 01:33:00,839
Speaker 1: which with DESPR and a strategic controlling reserve could provide

1704
01:33:01,160 --> 01:33:04,000
Speaker 1: through engaging in future purchases of oil, which is what

1705
01:33:04,040 --> 01:33:08,400
Speaker 1: really matters for producers. Providing certainty about financing. The Exchange

1706
01:33:08,400 --> 01:33:11,960
Speaker 1: Stabilization Fund can provide affordable and available financing, which is

1707
01:33:11,960 --> 01:33:15,400
Speaker 1: a big problem actually for the oil production. For oil

1708
01:33:16,760 --> 01:33:19,960
Speaker 1: producers in the United States have had trouble getting access

1709
01:33:19,960 --> 01:33:23,479
Speaker 1: to stable financing. And then the third part of this

1710
01:33:23,520 --> 01:33:25,920
Speaker 1: is about supply chains, because actually supply chains have also

1711
01:33:25,960 --> 01:33:28,360
Speaker 1: slowed down investment in the United States. We've seen that

1712
01:33:28,439 --> 01:33:33,360
Speaker 1: supply chains for cracking sand for steel pipe are also

1713
01:33:33,400 --> 01:33:36,439
Speaker 1: a big part of why we've seen a slow ramp

1714
01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:39,080
Speaker 1: up in US investment, and that's why US production is

1715
01:33:39,120 --> 01:33:43,240
Speaker 1: still below its peak that we saw before the COVID

1716
01:33:43,280 --> 01:33:46,160
Speaker 1: nineteen pandemic hit in March twenty twenty. So those are

1717
01:33:46,160 --> 01:33:49,479
Speaker 1: the three prongs of it. So just to recap the

1718
01:33:49,520 --> 01:33:52,680
Speaker 1: problem that we face now is basically that we have

1719
01:33:52,760 --> 01:33:55,320
Speaker 1: an industry that we want to produce more in the

1720
01:33:55,400 --> 01:33:58,200
Speaker 1: short term even as we want them to produce less

1721
01:33:58,240 --> 01:34:01,000
Speaker 1: in the long term. So what you what you've come

1722
01:34:01,080 --> 01:34:03,680
Speaker 1: up with is a plan to basically like incentivize the

1723
01:34:03,720 --> 01:34:08,320
Speaker 1: short term production of oil without sacrificing our ability to

1724
01:34:08,439 --> 01:34:11,439
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, pull back from fossil fuels in

1725
01:34:11,520 --> 01:34:14,160
Speaker 1: the long term. One of the responses to your idea

1726
01:34:14,439 --> 01:34:16,879
Speaker 1: that I saw. The thing I like about your idea

1727
01:34:17,120 --> 01:34:20,559
Speaker 1: is that I think it has some political possibility. None

1728
01:34:20,600 --> 01:34:22,639
Speaker 1: of the things that you've laid out, you know, it's

1729
01:34:22,760 --> 01:34:25,200
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm being honest, like, none of the things

1730
01:34:25,200 --> 01:34:28,000
Speaker 1: that you laid out have this instant like knee jerk like,

1731
01:34:28,040 --> 01:34:30,920
Speaker 1: oh my god, that's socialism, or oh my god, it's

1732
01:34:31,000 --> 01:34:34,120
Speaker 1: you know, it's horrible, or it's gonna destroy the planet.

1733
01:34:34,160 --> 01:34:36,479
Speaker 1: Or it's kind of balanced in that way and so

1734
01:34:36,600 --> 01:34:40,880
Speaker 1: potentially politically possible. But one response I saw to it

1735
01:34:40,920 --> 01:34:44,640
Speaker 1: came from Matt Brunig at the People's Policy Project, and

1736
01:34:44,680 --> 01:34:47,840
Speaker 1: he basically says, yeah, with the right kinds of incentives,

1737
01:34:47,880 --> 01:34:49,760
Speaker 1: maybe the government could make the deal sweet enough to

1738
01:34:49,840 --> 01:34:52,840
Speaker 1: change the calculation of these investors in the short term.

1739
01:34:53,040 --> 01:34:54,960
Speaker 1: But why bother with that when the government could just

1740
01:34:55,080 --> 01:34:58,120
Speaker 1: buy out the industry and manage this process directly, Because

1741
01:34:58,160 --> 01:35:01,120
Speaker 1: you do have this weird landscape of short term we

1742
01:35:01,160 --> 01:35:05,360
Speaker 1: want more, long term we want less. Isn't the most

1743
01:35:05,400 --> 01:35:09,080
Speaker 1: ideal policy solution to basically just nationalize the oil industry

1744
01:35:09,160 --> 01:35:14,120
Speaker 1: and manage this process and it's declined directly. That's a

1745
01:35:14,160 --> 01:35:16,160
Speaker 1: really smart guy. I really expect him. But I also

1746
01:35:16,160 --> 01:35:19,599
Speaker 1: think that this is an issue where both like political

1747
01:35:19,640 --> 01:35:23,200
Speaker 1: constraints aside, there are challenges associated with stat and enterprises

1748
01:35:23,320 --> 01:35:25,240
Speaker 1: in oil and gas. You can look at what's happened

1749
01:35:25,280 --> 01:35:27,200
Speaker 1: south of the border. That's a good example of where

1750
01:35:28,439 --> 01:35:32,120
Speaker 1: enterprises don't work that well. They can work well. Norway

1751
01:35:32,160 --> 01:35:35,040
Speaker 1: has done a good job with it. Brazil and Mexico

1752
01:35:35,120 --> 01:35:38,400
Speaker 1: have some problems with their nationalizing industry. I think that

1753
01:35:39,080 --> 01:35:41,200
Speaker 1: if we just get back to some level of both

1754
01:35:41,240 --> 01:35:44,760
Speaker 1: political reality, and I'd say, who has this sort of

1755
01:35:44,840 --> 01:35:49,000
Speaker 1: expertise and knowledge here to actually do this effectively in

1756
01:35:49,040 --> 01:35:52,320
Speaker 1: the short run for this crisis, I would say, there's

1757
01:35:52,360 --> 01:35:54,080
Speaker 1: going to have to be some give and take between

1758
01:35:54,120 --> 01:35:56,479
Speaker 1: industry and government. And I don't think that's a bad thing.

1759
01:35:56,560 --> 01:36:01,000
Speaker 1: Right now, we have a situation where the oil industry

1760
01:36:01,000 --> 01:36:04,040
Speaker 1: has been burned by three oil crashes in seven years.

1761
01:36:04,040 --> 01:36:06,920
Speaker 1: So twenty fourteen to twenty twenty, we had this sort

1762
01:36:06,920 --> 01:36:10,600
Speaker 1: of big decline in the price of oil that was

1763
01:36:10,640 --> 01:36:15,080
Speaker 1: directly tied to OPEC policy and also just in general

1764
01:36:15,120 --> 01:36:19,240
Speaker 1: domestic industry was overinvested, I would say, And so we

1765
01:36:19,280 --> 01:36:22,639
Speaker 1: had a situation where that pushed the price of oil down.

1766
01:36:22,640 --> 01:36:24,840
Speaker 1: And if you're a producer who still exists now, you're

1767
01:36:24,840 --> 01:36:27,880
Speaker 1: reluctant to produce because one year from now, two years

1768
01:36:27,920 --> 01:36:29,479
Speaker 1: from now, we actually don't have a great sense of

1769
01:36:29,479 --> 01:36:31,679
Speaker 1: where oil prices will be. We go this Russia shock

1770
01:36:32,000 --> 01:36:34,320
Speaker 1: could last a long time. Maybe it's maybe it may not.

1771
01:36:34,920 --> 01:36:37,080
Speaker 1: So that's a lot of uncertainty that they don't want

1772
01:36:37,080 --> 01:36:41,040
Speaker 1: to bear for some somewhat understandable and rational reasons. And

1773
01:36:41,040 --> 01:36:44,160
Speaker 1: the shareholders are telling them, No, don't invest if you

1774
01:36:44,360 --> 01:36:47,280
Speaker 1: give us back whatever profits you're making right now, because

1775
01:36:47,520 --> 01:36:50,080
Speaker 1: it's just too uncertain. And every time you've kind of

1776
01:36:50,560 --> 01:36:54,639
Speaker 1: gone all in on an investment over the last three crashes,

1777
01:36:54,720 --> 01:36:58,880
Speaker 1: we've seen like it doesn't pay off. So that may

1778
01:36:58,920 --> 01:37:01,000
Speaker 1: not be true in the future, but that's something that's like,

1779
01:37:01,000 --> 01:37:03,000
Speaker 1: it's important part of like why we got to where

1780
01:37:03,040 --> 01:37:05,240
Speaker 1: we got right now. I think it's an interesting case

1781
01:37:05,280 --> 01:37:09,280
Speaker 1: where shareholder capitalism is literally holding the energy markets hostage.

1782
01:37:09,280 --> 01:37:12,559
Speaker 1: Tikanda and you know, there was a circulating clip of

1783
01:37:12,640 --> 01:37:15,800
Speaker 1: the Pioneer Oil CEO being like, listen, even if it's

1784
01:37:15,840 --> 01:37:17,640
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty two hundred a barrel, we're not

1785
01:37:17,680 --> 01:37:20,680
Speaker 1: going to increase production. And I'm like, what the hell,

1786
01:37:20,800 --> 01:37:23,160
Speaker 1: Like this is crazy, And it just seems to me

1787
01:37:23,240 --> 01:37:26,360
Speaker 1: that the government is the only actor in this scenario

1788
01:37:26,720 --> 01:37:30,240
Speaker 1: which could at least realign or change the incentives, as

1789
01:37:30,280 --> 01:37:33,479
Speaker 1: you say, within a political world where look, nobody on

1790
01:37:33,560 --> 01:37:36,040
Speaker 1: the left is ever going to subsidize oil companies, which

1791
01:37:36,120 --> 01:37:38,120
Speaker 1: is not going to happen on the right. At the

1792
01:37:38,120 --> 01:37:40,400
Speaker 1: same time, they're like, oh, drill, baby, drail, but they

1793
01:37:40,400 --> 01:37:42,479
Speaker 1: don't necessarily want to spend any of the money. As

1794
01:37:42,520 --> 01:37:44,960
Speaker 1: you point out, we already have all of these facilities

1795
01:37:45,240 --> 01:37:49,360
Speaker 1: in place. So from that authority perspective, what would it

1796
01:37:49,439 --> 01:37:52,400
Speaker 1: take in order to see some of this actually get done?

1797
01:37:52,479 --> 01:37:54,960
Speaker 1: Because what I see right now is total helplessness in

1798
01:37:55,040 --> 01:37:57,479
Speaker 1: the oil markets ron Klain, you know, flying down to

1799
01:37:57,560 --> 01:38:00,560
Speaker 1: Venezuela being like, please drill, we need some oil. It's like,

1800
01:38:00,600 --> 01:38:02,280
Speaker 1: that's not going to do anything, you know, especially with

1801
01:38:02,280 --> 01:38:06,680
Speaker 1: this extra thick crude and are refining. Yeah, I mean,

1802
01:38:07,040 --> 01:38:09,600
Speaker 1: there's all sorts of complexities with respect to oil, but

1803
01:38:09,640 --> 01:38:11,719
Speaker 1: when it comes down to it really is supplying demand

1804
01:38:11,800 --> 01:38:13,960
Speaker 1: right now, and there is a lot of supply that

1805
01:38:14,000 --> 01:38:16,280
Speaker 1: needs to probably come online. A lot of the sanctions

1806
01:38:16,280 --> 01:38:17,960
Speaker 1: that we put in place are actually going to take

1807
01:38:18,400 --> 01:38:21,400
Speaker 1: Russian production down over time, just because they are meant

1808
01:38:21,400 --> 01:38:24,240
Speaker 1: to sort of cripple the Russian oil and gas sector

1809
01:38:24,400 --> 01:38:26,839
Speaker 1: in sort of a two, three, four or five ye horizon.

1810
01:38:26,880 --> 01:38:29,040
Speaker 1: So we actually do need to think slightly more long

1811
01:38:29,120 --> 01:38:31,080
Speaker 1: term as well as short term here that you're going

1812
01:38:31,160 --> 01:38:33,719
Speaker 1: to need a certain amount of oil a certain amount

1813
01:38:33,720 --> 01:38:36,240
Speaker 1: of gas. We have enough gas in the United States

1814
01:38:36,240 --> 01:38:40,519
Speaker 1: at least. Oil itself is something that requires a lot

1815
01:38:40,520 --> 01:38:43,719
Speaker 1: of investment just to keep production online and we should

1816
01:38:43,760 --> 01:38:46,000
Speaker 1: be honest about that, and we should obviously we have

1817
01:38:46,120 --> 01:38:48,960
Speaker 1: like sort of bigger longer term climate goals and environmental

1818
01:38:48,960 --> 01:38:51,480
Speaker 1: objectives depending on where you sit on the political spectrum,

1819
01:38:51,600 --> 01:38:55,400
Speaker 1: but we shouldn't be removed from the reality that transportation

1820
01:38:55,439 --> 01:38:57,800
Speaker 1: in the United States depends a lot on crude oil

1821
01:38:58,040 --> 01:39:00,000
Speaker 1: and how we're going to produce that is going to take.

1822
01:39:00,040 --> 01:39:03,280
Speaker 1: Can all be above strategy, it's going to take, and

1823
01:39:03,400 --> 01:39:06,160
Speaker 1: the US is like the biggest producer of oil that

1824
01:39:06,400 --> 01:39:08,880
Speaker 1: and really does matter for how we're going to get

1825
01:39:08,880 --> 01:39:12,240
Speaker 1: back to balance there. So so that would be my

1826
01:39:12,320 --> 01:39:14,559
Speaker 1: main main message here. At least we're seeing crude and

1827
01:39:14,560 --> 01:39:17,840
Speaker 1: oil inventories continue to go down, so there's clearly some

1828
01:39:18,800 --> 01:39:22,080
Speaker 1: demand outstripping supply and we need to start thinking pretty creatively.

1829
01:39:22,400 --> 01:39:24,760
Speaker 1: Right now, it solved, Yeah, I mean, I don't want

1830
01:39:24,760 --> 01:39:27,400
Speaker 1: to handwave away some of those concerns though, because I mean,

1831
01:39:27,439 --> 01:39:30,280
Speaker 1: one of the issues with this is that you do

1832
01:39:30,400 --> 01:39:34,400
Speaker 1: already have oil and gas companies making massive profits. So

1833
01:39:34,479 --> 01:39:38,280
Speaker 1: to say like, oh, the American taxpayer should backstop them

1834
01:39:38,320 --> 01:39:41,920
Speaker 1: even further, that they should be subsidized even further. Number One,

1835
01:39:41,960 --> 01:39:44,559
Speaker 1: that's a hard pill to swallow. Number two. You know,

1836
01:39:44,600 --> 01:39:48,160
Speaker 1: as I look at this, we are so vulnerable. Why

1837
01:39:48,240 --> 01:39:51,479
Speaker 1: because we are still so dependent on fossil fuels. And

1838
01:39:51,520 --> 01:39:55,439
Speaker 1: if like producing our you know, drill baby drill was

1839
01:39:55,479 --> 01:39:57,400
Speaker 1: going to solve the problem, Well, the problem be solved

1840
01:39:57,400 --> 01:40:00,240
Speaker 1: because we've been pursuing that strategy for a long time.

1841
01:40:00,479 --> 01:40:03,680
Speaker 1: The issue is ultimately that we are still so dependent

1842
01:40:03,960 --> 01:40:07,880
Speaker 1: on fossil fuels and you know, environmentals concerns aren't something

1843
01:40:07,880 --> 01:40:10,080
Speaker 1: to just like hand wave away. This is a dramatic

1844
01:40:10,120 --> 01:40:12,760
Speaker 1: problem that is causing massive crises in our country and

1845
01:40:12,800 --> 01:40:16,200
Speaker 1: around the globe right now. So how does the what

1846
01:40:16,240 --> 01:40:19,160
Speaker 1: does the next phase look like where we, you know,

1847
01:40:19,200 --> 01:40:23,639
Speaker 1: are able to move off of these fossil fuels when

1848
01:40:23,640 --> 01:40:26,160
Speaker 1: you have these companies that are so incredibly powerful and

1849
01:40:26,200 --> 01:40:28,920
Speaker 1: obviously their investor is very much interested in making sure

1850
01:40:28,960 --> 01:40:32,720
Speaker 1: that that never ever happens. Yeah, I mean, it's an

1851
01:40:32,760 --> 01:40:35,680
Speaker 1: interesting thing you say about what do the shareholders and

1852
01:40:35,720 --> 01:40:41,240
Speaker 1: the companies actually want and relative to the longer term

1853
01:40:41,280 --> 01:40:43,720
Speaker 1: objectives of getting off of fossil fuels, because they're not

1854
01:40:43,840 --> 01:40:49,799
Speaker 1: actually that misaligned in some ways. Right now, oil producers

1855
01:40:49,840 --> 01:40:51,679
Speaker 1: are taking us sort of keep it in the ground strategy,

1856
01:40:51,760 --> 01:40:55,880
Speaker 1: right They are like reluctant to invest, reluctant to truly

1857
01:40:55,960 --> 01:40:58,719
Speaker 1: ramp up production to meet current means because they're worried

1858
01:40:58,720 --> 01:41:02,400
Speaker 1: about the transition over time, but also that they may

1859
01:41:02,439 --> 01:41:05,759
Speaker 1: just get burned by OPEC deciding to ramp up production

1860
01:41:06,320 --> 01:41:08,680
Speaker 1: on the other side of the environmental objectives. But I

1861
01:41:08,720 --> 01:41:10,720
Speaker 1: don't think that. I think electric vehicles just to be

1862
01:41:10,760 --> 01:41:13,320
Speaker 1: honest about how quickly we can scale that up. But

1863
01:41:13,360 --> 01:41:14,559
Speaker 1: I do think if we look at like a five

1864
01:41:14,600 --> 01:41:17,479
Speaker 1: year time horizon or a five year ten year time horizon,

1865
01:41:17,680 --> 01:41:21,680
Speaker 1: the ability to shift off should be much better. I

1866
01:41:21,720 --> 01:41:26,360
Speaker 1: think that is just because of the technological development or why, well,

1867
01:41:26,400 --> 01:41:28,800
Speaker 1: there's technological development. Also we don't have right now of

1868
01:41:28,800 --> 01:41:32,240
Speaker 1: the battery supply chain is really screwed, sent kind of

1869
01:41:32,240 --> 01:41:35,599
Speaker 1: a disaster, So we don't have the production capacity right

1870
01:41:35,640 --> 01:41:38,080
Speaker 1: now to do that, but we can over time, and

1871
01:41:38,320 --> 01:41:41,080
Speaker 1: I think that it's important that we do so. I

1872
01:41:41,120 --> 01:41:43,080
Speaker 1: think that we have to be honest that there are

1873
01:41:43,160 --> 01:41:47,920
Speaker 1: real supply chain deficiencies. But also just only now is

1874
01:41:47,960 --> 01:41:50,960
Speaker 1: forward and or GM are they actually investing in the

1875
01:41:51,040 --> 01:41:54,679
Speaker 1: sort of battery factories you see these announcements that are

1876
01:41:54,720 --> 01:41:57,320
Speaker 1: happening across the country. It's going to take time for

1877
01:41:57,360 --> 01:41:59,639
Speaker 1: that to actually materialize to where we can actually produce

1878
01:41:59,680 --> 01:42:02,880
Speaker 1: cars and produce vehicles that are gonna be able to

1879
01:42:02,920 --> 01:42:06,640
Speaker 1: shift off demand for motor fuel, which I think is

1880
01:42:06,640 --> 01:42:08,759
Speaker 1: something we all should be striving for in every single

1881
01:42:08,760 --> 01:42:12,080
Speaker 1: possible way, both in demand and the supply side. I

1882
01:42:12,120 --> 01:42:15,479
Speaker 1: think just given the scale of how much Russian crude

1883
01:42:15,760 --> 01:42:18,599
Speaker 1: matters to the market, to the global market, we should

1884
01:42:18,640 --> 01:42:21,160
Speaker 1: be looking at this on the supply and the demand side. Yeah,

1885
01:42:21,400 --> 01:42:24,800
Speaker 1: I really appreciate all sides analysis. Here is kinda I

1886
01:42:24,840 --> 01:42:27,519
Speaker 1: hope that somebody of influence will listen or read and

1887
01:42:27,640 --> 01:42:29,840
Speaker 1: possibly take notice. So we appreciate you joining us. Man,

1888
01:42:29,840 --> 01:42:33,400
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you absolutely, Thank you guys so much

1889
01:42:33,400 --> 01:42:35,360
Speaker 1: for watching. We really appreciate it. Thank you all so

1890
01:42:35,439 --> 01:42:37,280
Speaker 1: much for your support at this crazy time. I mean,

1891
01:42:37,280 --> 01:42:39,439
Speaker 1: we were talking in our censorship block. We have no

1892
01:42:39,520 --> 01:42:42,080
Speaker 1: idea when the shoe will drop. It's very possible. I've

1893
01:42:42,120 --> 01:42:45,240
Speaker 1: never felt more vulnerable then currently. It's not like we're

1894
01:42:45,280 --> 01:42:48,360
Speaker 1: crazy conspiracy theorists. We just cover the news and in

1895
01:42:48,400 --> 01:42:50,800
Speaker 1: that environment, the only people we can rely on are you.

1896
01:42:50,880 --> 01:42:53,080
Speaker 1: So thank you all very very much for your support

1897
01:42:53,120 --> 01:42:55,479
Speaker 1: and premium members, you're the only people who give us

1898
01:42:55,479 --> 01:42:57,639
Speaker 1: the security to try and push it as far as

1899
01:42:57,640 --> 01:42:59,639
Speaker 1: we possibly can, and in the event that it does happen,

1900
01:42:59,680 --> 01:43:02,280
Speaker 1: we will ultimately be okay because of all of you.

1901
01:43:02,320 --> 01:43:04,360
Speaker 1: But it's a very scary time out there. There's not

1902
01:43:04,439 --> 01:43:06,680
Speaker 1: a lot of consideration being made as to how this

1903
01:43:06,720 --> 01:43:08,720
Speaker 1: is going to impact the news business, and a lot

1904
01:43:08,760 --> 01:43:11,360
Speaker 1: of people's lives are getting ruined in terms of what's

1905
01:43:11,400 --> 01:43:14,120
Speaker 1: being allowed to spread or what's not, what's being allowed

1906
01:43:14,160 --> 01:43:17,400
Speaker 1: to question even basic playing news clips. I think that's

1907
01:43:17,439 --> 01:43:21,640
Speaker 1: totally bonkers. Yeah, crazy side. Yeah, it's truly a hysterical

1908
01:43:21,760 --> 01:43:24,599
Speaker 1: environment right now, and you see the social media companies

1909
01:43:24,640 --> 01:43:27,320
Speaker 1: basically using that to engage in the agenda that they've

1910
01:43:27,320 --> 01:43:29,360
Speaker 1: been sort of pushing for a while. So thank you

1911
01:43:29,400 --> 01:43:31,320
Speaker 1: guys for always having our back, and we will see

1912
01:43:31,360 --> 01:43:32,160
Speaker 1: you back here tomorrow.