WEBVTT - 2026 Midterms Polling Update 0:00:07.010 --> 0:00:11.900 Welcome to It Could Happen Here. I'm Garrison Davis, joined 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:13.780 by Robert Evans. Hello. 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:17.100 Hello, Garrison Davis. How are you doing today? 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:21.260 I'm doing okay. I'm really, I'm getting prepared to vote. 0:00:22.500 --> 0:00:23.640 I'm psyching myself up. 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.820 Just like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps told you to do, huh? 0:00:27.140 --> 0:00:28.550 I think that's what we want to start with. 0:00:28.570 --> 0:00:32.590 This isn't, this isn't... In general, this episode will be 0:00:32.610 --> 0:00:36.350 kind of going over the midterm polls as they are 0:00:37.070 --> 0:00:39.970 in early October, kind of what we can get a 0:00:40.010 --> 0:00:42.430 sense of the election about a month out, now that 0:00:42.450 --> 0:00:45.450 we're just a few weeks away from the election. But 0:00:45.610 --> 0:00:50.710 a few weeks ago, the IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 0:00:51.110 --> 0:00:51.870 Prince of the pod. 0:00:53.630 --> 0:00:53.910 Sure. 0:00:54.190 --> 0:00:55.750 At this point, man. 0:00:59.340 --> 0:01:04.390 One bad day, full Stalinist, full Maoist. 0:01:04.610 --> 0:01:07.490 I mean, that's more, it's a slightly differentist. 0:01:07.510 --> 0:01:12.770 A few weeks ago, the IRGC released a 26-page letter, 0:01:13.010 --> 0:01:14.670 not short. 0:01:14.870 --> 0:01:16.919 Not strong on brevity, the IRGC. 0:01:17.800 --> 0:01:22.000 Addressed to the American people, a spokesperson from the IRGC 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:26.370 told Reuters, quote, the American people are not knowledgeable about 0:01:26.410 --> 0:01:30.160 many developments. We believe if they knew more, they would 0:01:30.220 --> 0:01:33.840 think differently and take other decisions, unquote. 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.540 You guys might have more faith in the American people 0:01:36.580 --> 0:01:37.600 than I do at this point. 0:01:38.620 --> 0:01:40.920 The start of the letter and how it's addressed reads, 0:01:41.470 --> 0:01:44.170 to the honorable people of the United States of America, 0:01:44.350 --> 0:01:47.430 the scholars, the students, and the members of the media. 0:01:47.450 --> 0:01:50.210 I think that last part is important because at least 0:01:50.250 --> 0:01:52.600 some of them know that The American people are not 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:55.280 reading a 26-page letter. This is going to be mostly 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:56.200 read by journalists. 0:01:56.470 --> 0:01:58.290 This is going to be read by nerds on Twitter. 0:01:58.310 --> 0:01:59.710 And blue sky, I guess. 0:01:59.850 --> 0:02:00.770 And nerds on Twitter. 0:02:01.430 --> 0:02:01.730 Yeah. 0:02:02.310 --> 0:02:04.630 Now, I actually was able to get a short video. 0:02:04.650 --> 0:02:07.170 The IRGC also released a short video kind of summarizing 0:02:07.510 --> 0:02:11.089 the letter. And I will play that here for Robert. 0:02:23.930 --> 0:02:26.269 So that's, yeah, that's the special, that's the special video. 0:02:26.570 --> 0:02:28.690 Yeah, that really is. That's something else. 0:02:29.210 --> 0:02:31.610 So there's a few sections before. The bulk of the 0:02:31.650 --> 0:02:34.460 letter is arguing why Iran is the victor in the war, 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:37.960 concrete evidence of Iran's victory. They have a section on 0:02:38.139 --> 0:02:40.200 the meaning of, quote, death to America. 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:41.200 Yeah. 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.700 Which reads, quote, Death to America does not in any 0:02:43.740 --> 0:02:46.920 way express any ill will toward the American people who 0:02:46.980 --> 0:02:49.980 have themselves suffered through the same oppression. Death to America 0:02:50.020 --> 0:02:53.639 is a prayer for the eradication of the diabolical ruling 0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:55.980 elite whose seat of power is in the White House. 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:58.980 And the letter goes on to say that the RGC 0:02:59.000 --> 0:03:01.780 and the people of Iran have no feeling of hostility 0:03:01.860 --> 0:03:02.959 toward the American people. 0:03:03.380 --> 0:03:06.380 And then they ask, how can the U.S. be saved? 0:03:07.460 --> 0:03:09.750 And this is what leads to the bulk of the 0:03:09.780 --> 0:03:12.280 letter saying, which is essentially trying to get Americans to 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:12.880 vote harder. 0:03:15.419 --> 0:03:17.040 You're finished, fascism. 0:03:17.980 --> 0:03:18.340 Oh, man. 0:03:18.380 --> 0:03:21.100 But there's also a few other interesting kind of like 0:03:22.100 --> 0:03:25.760 name drops here. Quote, God will come to the aid 0:03:25.780 --> 0:03:28.799 of the American people if they decide to change course. Thankfully, 0:03:28.910 --> 0:03:31.109 Americans are waking up to the truth. Over the past 0:03:31.150 --> 0:03:34.050 two years, Americans have participated in numerous demonstrations in cities 0:03:34.090 --> 0:03:37.210 across the U.S. to express their outrage at Israel's genocidal 0:03:37.310 --> 0:03:38.110 actions in Gaza. 0:03:38.930 --> 0:03:39.350 Moreover. 0:03:39.890 --> 0:03:46.500 The no-kings rallies that swept across the U.S. last year 0:03:46.960 --> 0:03:52.000 were a nationwide repudiation of the burgeoning autocratic tendencies within 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.320 the American government. These powerful manifestations of collective action are 0:03:55.400 --> 0:04:01.200 evidence of a national awakening spreading through the U.S. Polls 0:04:01.340 --> 0:04:03.930 show that the majority of Americans, especially younger Americans, no 0:04:03.970 --> 0:04:07.130 longer wish to be complicit in their government's crimes against 0:04:07.230 --> 0:04:10.100 other nations, unquote. Part of what makes this so funny 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:14.720 to me is how diametrically opposed it is to the 0:04:14.740 --> 0:04:17.340 messaging coming out of like, you know, U.S. based like 0:04:17.380 --> 0:04:19.039 Maoists or like anti-imperialists. 0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:19.370 You know? 0:04:19.430 --> 0:04:22.890 Oh yeah, like the U.S. far left. Absolutely. They're so much, 0:04:23.210 --> 0:04:25.750 so much more generous to the American people. 0:04:28.029 --> 0:04:31.150 Yeah, that's something that's really, that's really funny to me. 0:04:31.630 --> 0:04:35.420 As for the vote harder section, let's read one paragraph here. 0:04:36.330 --> 0:04:38.670 Your response may be that you do not accept these 0:04:38.890 --> 0:04:41.540 atrocious actions, but are powerless to do anything about them. 0:04:42.060 --> 0:04:45.300 This answer, however, is not acceptable. You are the ones 0:04:45.339 --> 0:04:48.780 who empower with your votes. The government had allowed to 0:04:48.820 --> 0:04:51.560 do what it wants. Although American politicians often win your 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:54.860 votes through deception of false promises, as Trump did, you 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:56.960 can change the makeup of the government if you apply 0:04:57.000 --> 0:04:59.560 the criteria for good leadership in choosing the people you 0:04:59.620 --> 0:05:00.520 vote into office. 0:05:01.170 --> 0:05:03.870 See, guys, I gotta tell you, it's not that easy. 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.820 First off, I've voted every time I've gotten the chance, 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:10.980 pretty much. I don't think I've ever empowered anyone with 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:11.820 my votes. 0:05:12.050 --> 0:05:15.270 You know, it's one of those kind of Adam Curtis moments. 0:05:15.310 --> 0:05:15.970 Yeah. 0:05:15.990 --> 0:05:21.430 We have the IRGC advocating the ideal of electoral politics, 0:05:21.650 --> 0:05:24.710 something that does not exist really in Iran either. 0:05:25.150 --> 0:05:28.150 It's consistent with there's that one famous interview with an 0:05:28.190 --> 0:05:31.190 Iranian cleric where he's like, as Alexander de Tocqueville, who 0:05:31.210 --> 0:05:35.480 I'm sure all Americans have read once said, he's like, guys, 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.080 you are way overestimating us. 0:05:41.060 --> 0:05:44.080 So, yeah, if you have any sort of anti-imperialist impulses 0:05:44.580 --> 0:05:48.580 as per as per the IRGC, get your voter registration 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:49.480 up to date. 0:05:50.260 --> 0:05:54.109 Get your voter registration card and get out there. If 0:05:54.150 --> 0:05:55.849 you're in line, stay in line. 0:05:55.870 --> 0:05:58.230 That's right. 0:05:59.029 --> 0:06:01.150 So part of why this letter was released is because 0:06:01.190 --> 0:06:03.859 it is just a few weeks away from the midterms. 0:06:04.100 --> 0:06:05.720 We are less than a month away from the 2026 0:06:05.720 --> 0:06:08.300 midterm elections. And so I thought we should do a 0:06:08.300 --> 0:06:10.200 little update on polling and take a look at some 0:06:10.220 --> 0:06:11.360 of the close races. 0:06:12.220 --> 0:06:14.839 Sure. And let's start by talking about the current makeup 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:15.800 of Congress. 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:19.099 Right now in the House, 218 seats are held. 0:06:18.760 --> 0:06:20.109 By Republicans, 214 Democrats. 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:25.930 By Democrats, and there's one independent who caucuses with the Republicans. 0:06:25.930 --> 0:06:30.750 218 seats are what's needed for a majority. This has 0:06:30.790 --> 0:06:34.830 been a very small majority that the Republicans have been 0:06:34.850 --> 0:06:37.809 able to hold onto in the House these past few years. 0:06:38.550 --> 0:06:41.590 The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the Dems will 0:06:41.610 --> 0:06:45.010 pick up around five to 15 seats in the midterms, 0:06:45.589 --> 0:06:48.700 likely putting them in charge of the House with anywhere 0:06:48.740 --> 0:06:53.919 between 220 to 230 seats. And this lead in polling 0:06:54.100 --> 0:06:57.320 and their projected victory has only grown these past few weeks. 0:06:57.900 --> 0:07:00.200 It's not becoming a closer race for the Republicans. 0:07:00.360 --> 0:07:04.320 No, this things don't look good for them because gasoline 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:06.800 costs all of the money in your pocket now. That 0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.260 is a huge factor. That's a big part of the reason. 0:07:09.760 --> 0:07:11.470 I'll go over some of the kind of main issues 0:07:11.510 --> 0:07:15.070 driving the election person polling and gas prices is like. 0:07:15.550 --> 0:07:16.590 number one or number two. 0:07:16.810 --> 0:07:21.050 Yeah, I have trouble imagining anything other than other cost 0:07:21.090 --> 0:07:25.530 of living stuff being like a larger impact on voters. 0:07:25.870 --> 0:07:30.640 Something that is interesting, the redistricting across Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:34.600 North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah will likely have 0:07:34.620 --> 0:07:37.920 a minimal impact in the results like in total. There's 0:07:38.180 --> 0:07:41.060 obviously for the people actually impacted the people whose votes 0:07:41.100 --> 0:07:42.520 are being diluted, especially. 0:07:42.740 --> 0:07:45.040 Not that this is not bad or a problem. It's 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:47.610 just they have fucked up enough that it's not going 0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.090 to benefit them to the extent. That's what it seemed 0:07:50.110 --> 0:07:52.090 like to me, that they're not going to benefit the 0:07:52.130 --> 0:07:52.710 way that they were. 0:07:53.490 --> 0:07:56.210 No. So I don't want to discount the impact of 0:07:56.250 --> 0:07:58.710 the erosion of the Voting Rights Act by any means, 0:07:59.350 --> 0:08:03.220 or the just larger structural issues of partisan gerrymandering. But 0:08:03.580 --> 0:08:06.400 an analysis by Harvard estimated a net gain of only 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:11.030 two seats for Republicans... in these midterms, though other estimates 0:08:11.230 --> 0:08:13.850 give them a few more seats, anywhere between five to nine. 0:08:15.030 --> 0:08:18.180 So we're looking at somewhere between a couple seats. I 0:08:18.220 --> 0:08:20.060 think nine is probably a bit optimistic. 0:08:20.140 --> 0:08:21.480 Yeah, for the Republicans. 0:08:21.940 --> 0:08:24.920 Around two to five seats they could net because of 0:08:25.660 --> 0:08:26.720 the redistricting measures. 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:28.340 Could, might, yeah. 0:08:28.620 --> 0:08:33.930 Even that gain will likely be undone in the coming years, 0:08:33.990 --> 0:08:37.180 going into 2028. When Virginia is able to push forward 0:08:37.260 --> 0:08:40.240 its redistricting again, which they tried to do earlier, but 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.359 because of a procedural error, it was shot down. So 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.220 that that will also net Democrats a few more seats 0:08:46.340 --> 0:08:49.090 that will start to kind of even things out. And 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:51.910 then we had this whole little fun redistricting for nothing. 0:08:52.390 --> 0:08:55.110 Yeah, it's a real just a marker of how badly 0:08:55.170 --> 0:09:01.250 they have botched their their starting position going into this administration. 0:09:02.130 --> 0:09:05.490 just kind of a catastrophic series of political decisions. We'll 0:09:05.510 --> 0:09:07.609 see if any of that matters, but it really does 0:09:07.670 --> 0:09:10.110 highlight how pissed off people are. 0:09:11.010 --> 0:09:15.790 Now, obviously, the Senate is kind of the big question here. Yeah. 0:09:15.990 --> 0:09:18.570 Will Democrats be able to actually take the Senate? Will 0:09:18.590 --> 0:09:20.860 they be able to control all of Congress, not just 0:09:20.890 --> 0:09:21.319 the House? 0:09:21.910 --> 0:09:22.130 Yeah. 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:26.260 Currently, the Republicans have a 53-seat majority, plus a Fetterman. 0:09:27.350 --> 0:09:30.710 and the vice president who can vote. So that kind 0:09:30.730 --> 0:09:33.070 of really throws a wrench in all these numbers, the 0:09:33.110 --> 0:09:35.370 Fetterman factor and the Vance factor. 0:09:36.010 --> 0:09:36.610 Yeah. 0:09:36.630 --> 0:09:40.110 Democrats just have 45 seats plus two independents who caucus 0:09:40.190 --> 0:09:45.050 with the Democrats, like Bernie Sanders. So essentially, things actually 0:09:45.090 --> 0:09:50.050 sit at like 54 to 46, adjusting for independents and Fetterman. 0:09:50.880 --> 0:09:53.679 So Democrats really need a net gain of like four 0:09:53.700 --> 0:09:57.570 to five seats to be able to Have the Senate 0:09:57.590 --> 0:09:59.530 be a more of a competitive voter. 0:10:00.030 --> 0:10:01.410 Know, voting arena. 0:10:01.429 --> 0:10:03.580 Also, you know, considering J.D. Vance. 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:07.020 There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot next month. 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.620 So Democrats will need to flip around four to five seats, 0:10:11.660 --> 0:10:14.220 like I said, and one of the seats Democrats have 0:10:14.300 --> 0:10:18.120 wanted to flip for a long time, and especially this year, 0:10:18.780 --> 0:10:23.349 is Maine. with susan collins one of our worst lawmakers 0:10:23.790 --> 0:10:26.609 yes and republica as i reported on ed a few 0:10:26.790 --> 0:10:31.110 few weeks ago republica did that great investigation into into 0:10:31.170 --> 0:10:38.620 military contracting corruption and bribery involving susan collins so union 0:10:38.660 --> 0:10:43.320 logger troy jackson is trying to unseat collins Right now, 0:10:43.360 --> 0:10:48.620 this race leans D or is a toss up. Morrist 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:54.480 has Jackson up four points ahead of Collins among registered voters, but. 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:55.750 With a margin of error of 3.8%. 0:10:55.750 --> 0:11:00.650 So that's essentially still almost within the margin of error. 0:11:01.170 --> 0:11:02.890 This is going to be a very close race, right? 0:11:02.929 --> 0:11:06.050 A margin of error like that. This is still basically 0:11:06.090 --> 0:11:08.609 a toss up. Other polling shows roughly the same results. 0:11:09.110 --> 0:11:12.010 Jackson up a few points, but within the margin of error. 0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:19.540 Per Morrist, among the Maine electorate, 57% think Collins will win. 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:22.439 That's not saying 57% want Collins to win, but they 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:24.850 think that will happen, right? That's what they think is 0:11:24.880 --> 0:11:28.910 more likely. A survey from the Maine People's Resource Center 0:11:29.590 --> 0:11:35.050 found Jackson ahead among independent voters, 58% to 33% for Collins. 0:11:36.250 --> 0:11:41.230 The Maine People's Resource Center is a progressive-leaning institution. Obviously, 0:11:41.270 --> 0:11:44.030 this race in Maine has been a big shit show, 0:11:44.130 --> 0:11:48.490 to say the least. And since Jackson has taken over 0:11:49.030 --> 0:11:52.790 as the nominee, Democratic Party establishment consultants have really swooped 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.500 into Maine and have been trying to keep Jackson on 0:11:55.540 --> 0:12:01.040 a tight leash. Jackson's campaign has not replicated the Platner-style 0:12:01.140 --> 0:12:02.780 intensive town hall strategy. 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.500 I think that would be a bad idea. It would 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.939 be really obvious if he just tried to be Graham 0:12:07.980 --> 0:12:09.880 Platner without the scandal, right? 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.739 Yeah, let's try to be Graham Platner, but I think 0:12:13.780 --> 0:12:17.400 it is, the style of campaigning is very different. Yeah. 0:12:18.020 --> 0:12:21.300 Jackson's not as accessible to the electorate. Consultants have tried 0:12:21.320 --> 0:12:22.700 to keep him from doing Q & As at the 0:12:22.740 --> 0:12:25.819 events that he does end up doing. They've been dissuading 0:12:25.860 --> 0:12:30.720 him from talking about ICE and Israel and Palestine. Great. 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:34.620 So they really have been trying to keep him on 0:12:34.660 --> 0:12:36.699 a pretty tight leash. There's a story in New York 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:39.460 Magazine a few weeks ago that kind of details how 0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:44.300 Democratic establishment consultants have been trying to lead the Jackson 0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:47.679 campaign that if people are interested in that specific topic, 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:51.839 I recommend they check out. So this is one of 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.140 the races that Democrats really do need to flip if 0:12:55.660 --> 0:12:58.340 they have a chance of winning the Senate. And it is, 0:12:58.540 --> 0:13:02.540 you know, theoretically possible, you know, he may be slightly 0:13:02.610 --> 0:13:05.590 ahead in the polls, but only very slightly. But I think, yeah, 0:13:05.790 --> 0:13:08.700 this is this is essentially a toss up. especially looking 0:13:08.740 --> 0:13:12.280 back at 2020 when the Democrat in that race also was, 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:15.110 you know, a little bit ahead and Collins still ended 0:13:15.150 --> 0:13:15.980 up walking away with it. 0:13:16.429 --> 0:13:19.530 Yeah, I think they're I mean, they're they're both trying 0:13:19.570 --> 0:13:22.970 to avoid having another platner who gets like out of 0:13:23.050 --> 0:13:25.849 control of them and is saying shit that the DNC 0:13:25.910 --> 0:13:27.910 does not want to have to stand by. And I 0:13:27.929 --> 0:13:30.890 think they are also hoping that that Plattner's campaign at 0:13:30.929 --> 0:13:34.150 least did enough damage to Collins that she isn't going 0:13:34.190 --> 0:13:35.890 to be able to like pull out a win this time. 0:13:35.950 --> 0:13:37.530 And maybe that'll be the case, you know, that might 0:13:37.570 --> 0:13:39.209 wind up being a play that works. 0:13:39.590 --> 0:13:39.970 Definitely. 0:13:40.150 --> 0:13:42.910 It's not a great position to have someone who is 0:13:42.950 --> 0:13:46.210 doing as well as Plattner had been doing get dropped 0:13:46.290 --> 0:13:48.660 out with a scandal that fucked up. Like that's a, 0:13:48.730 --> 0:13:50.830 that's a, that's not easy to handle. 0:13:51.130 --> 0:13:51.360 Yes. 0:13:51.630 --> 0:13:54.859 Especially mobilizing that many people who were already kind of 0:13:54.900 --> 0:13:57.720 disillusioned with politics, giving them that sort of hope and 0:13:57.740 --> 0:13:59.990 then having that hope be ripped away. And then those 0:14:00.030 --> 0:14:02.430 people who maybe, some of them who even still want 0:14:02.470 --> 0:14:06.950 to be politically engaged, the Jackson campaign is not letting 0:14:06.990 --> 0:14:09.530 them touch the campaign with a 10-foot pole, which you 0:14:09.550 --> 0:14:11.929 can maybe understand their reasons for. But there's a lot 0:14:11.950 --> 0:14:18.050 of grassroots, very working-class-oriented activists who want to be involved 0:14:18.090 --> 0:14:21.410 in some way that are not being tapped. And as 0:14:21.530 --> 0:14:23.580 strong as Plattner's campaign was, it was because it was 0:14:23.660 --> 0:14:25.540 built on the work that they were doing. Yeah. 0:14:25.700 --> 0:14:26.980 Not just him as a person. 0:14:27.000 --> 0:14:27.120 Yeah. 0:14:27.690 --> 0:14:30.250 So those are sort of complicating factors in this race. 0:14:30.750 --> 0:14:34.070 And you know what's a complicating factor in this podcast episode, Garrison? 0:14:34.230 --> 0:14:36.010 The fact that we have to pivot to ads in 0:14:36.030 --> 0:14:37.950 order to pay the bills. We have to pivot to 0:14:38.030 --> 0:14:38.590 ads right now. 0:14:38.650 --> 0:14:41.070 Yeah, yeah, that is a complicating factor in our lives. 0:14:52.250 --> 0:14:53.030 And we're back. 0:14:53.710 --> 0:14:56.670 How do you feel about North Carolina, Robert? Of the Carolinas, 0:14:56.830 --> 0:15:00.630 definitely my favorite. That's so true, actually. 0:15:00.730 --> 0:15:05.050 Easily the best of the Carolinas. Top 50% Carolina. Sorry 0:15:05.070 --> 0:15:09.150 to everyone in South Carolina. I did not apologize, South Carolina. 0:15:09.330 --> 0:15:10.150 You need to know that. 0:15:11.970 --> 0:15:14.130 Well, North Carolina could also be one of the states 0:15:14.430 --> 0:15:18.720 that flip for the Dems. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:23.400 is facing former RNC Chair Michael Watley. 0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:23.940 What a name. 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:27.880 Who is running to replace Republican Senator Tom Tillis. 0:15:28.380 --> 0:15:31.990 Those are both silly names. Have some self-respect. God damn it. 0:15:32.950 --> 0:15:35.710 This race is leaning Democrat. This is not a toss-up. 0:15:35.870 --> 0:15:39.190 Yeah. Polls from late September have Cooper ahead 5 to 0:15:39.190 --> 0:15:40.330 13 points. 0:15:40.730 --> 0:15:41.530 Yeah, that's pretty good. 0:15:42.030 --> 0:15:45.570 And last week, a Republican super PAC pulled $ 30 million 0:15:45.630 --> 0:15:48.440 of ad money out of the state to use in 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:49.240 other races. 0:15:50.260 --> 0:15:50.420 So. 0:15:51.070 --> 0:15:54.050 That's a sign that at least even among some Republicans, 0:15:54.090 --> 0:15:56.620 they're kind of giving up on this. Roy Cooper is 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.460 a pretty strong candidate for this state. I should say, 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:03.140 as we're going through all of these sort of candidates, 0:16:03.700 --> 0:16:06.160 this is not, it could happen here, endorsing any candidate 0:16:06.240 --> 0:16:07.540 just because they. 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:09.180 Belong to one party or another. 0:16:09.210 --> 0:16:10.550 Not our thing. 0:16:11.070 --> 0:16:12.870 I'm just talking about this in terms of what the 0:16:12.910 --> 0:16:15.930 Democrats want in order to take back power and the 0:16:15.950 --> 0:16:17.890 sort of how these candidates relate to each state. 0:16:18.710 --> 0:16:19.170 Roy Cooper. 0:16:19.860 --> 0:16:23.970 is a relatively liked figure in North Carolina. That is 0:16:24.250 --> 0:16:26.450 reflected in the polling for this. His campaign is also 0:16:26.490 --> 0:16:28.650 helped by the fact he's not going up against an incumbent. 0:16:28.670 --> 0:16:32.420 He's not going up against someone who voters already are 0:16:32.460 --> 0:16:34.780 familiar with, already like, who they just want to keep 0:16:34.820 --> 0:16:36.920 in power. He's going up against a new guy, a 0:16:37.660 --> 0:16:40.850 former RNC chair. So this is one of those states 0:16:40.910 --> 0:16:43.490 where the Democrats will probably flip. You can kind of 0:16:43.570 --> 0:16:47.010 count this on the four to five states needed to flip. 0:16:47.050 --> 0:16:49.110 This is the most kind of certain one. 0:16:49.250 --> 0:16:52.100 There'd be a massive polling error if it goes the 0:16:52.140 --> 0:16:54.100 other way or some sort of fuckery. 0:16:54.620 --> 0:16:59.300 And just a total misread of the situation on the ground. Now, 0:16:59.340 --> 0:17:03.040 one of the more interesting kind of surprises is Alaska, 0:17:03.580 --> 0:17:07.929 which could also flip for Democrats. The former Democratic congressman, 0:17:08.090 --> 0:17:12.230 Mary Peltola, is going up against sitting Senator Dan Sullivan. 0:17:12.730 --> 0:17:17.390 Paltola is definitely running more as, like, a centrist. Very 0:17:17.430 --> 0:17:18.369 pro-fossil fuels. 0:17:18.609 --> 0:17:19.550 You're in Alaska. 0:17:19.570 --> 0:17:19.990 Yeah. 0:17:20.690 --> 0:17:22.630 Pro-gun, too. Pro-gun. 0:17:22.950 --> 0:17:26.919 Her campaign slogan is Fish Family Freedom. 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:27.639 Yep. 0:17:28.040 --> 0:17:28.580 That makes sense. 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.480 Not a terrible slogan for running in Alaska. Not bad 0:17:31.540 --> 0:17:35.879 for Alaska. And rather than attacking Republicans, a lot of 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:39.290 her campaign messaging is focused on taking on, quote, D.C. 0:17:39.700 --> 0:17:42.010 You know, it's very much like Alaska versus D.C. 0:17:42.170 --> 0:17:42.910 Yeah. 0:17:42.950 --> 0:17:43.090 Yeah. 0:17:43.150 --> 0:17:46.110 Corruption is a massive issue for the whole electorate. So 0:17:46.630 --> 0:17:50.109 that makes sense. Like that's, yeah, kind of the obvious play. 0:17:50.190 --> 0:17:53.750 And really prioritizing Alaska as like its own special interest 0:17:53.790 --> 0:17:57.649 because it's so different from every other state. Yeah. part 0:17:57.670 --> 0:17:59.310 of Peltola's strategy is trying to, you know, is trying 0:17:59.330 --> 0:18:02.100 to attract certain Republicans, which is why she's not really 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:06.100 going hard against Republicans per se, but attacking this sort of, like, D.C. 0:18:06.200 --> 0:18:09.900 swamp establishment. That's her main strategy here. A New York 0:18:09.960 --> 0:18:14.780 Times-Siena poll from late September to early October has Peltola 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:15.940 up seven points. 0:18:16.590 --> 0:18:21.190 Yeah, that's a pretty solid lead. Alaska's been wavering the 0:18:21.230 --> 0:18:24.850 last couple of elections between blue and red. So this 0:18:24.930 --> 0:18:27.820 is not like a, A sea change. 0:18:27.960 --> 0:18:28.160 Right. 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:30.260 This is kind of an incremental change in some of 0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:35.430 the the and obviously the disaster that is this administration 0:18:35.470 --> 0:18:37.810 has pushed things further along than I think it otherwise 0:18:37.869 --> 0:18:39.369 would be. But this is it's been moving in this 0:18:39.410 --> 0:18:40.129 direction a while. 0:18:40.230 --> 0:18:40.490 Yeah. 0:18:40.650 --> 0:18:43.139 And like Alaska hasn't had a Democratic senator in like 0:18:43.180 --> 0:18:46.460 almost 20 years. this would be a significant event if 0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:47.020 this happened. 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.160 Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn't mean to say it wouldn't. 0:18:49.220 --> 0:18:51.500 I've just been like this, this pattern has been occurring 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.540 since before like Trump too. 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:54.060 Right. 0:18:54.420 --> 0:18:58.869 And obviously there's this general pattern of in the midterms, usually, 0:18:58.890 --> 0:19:02.450 especially the house, but sometimes the Senate as well, shifts 0:19:02.510 --> 0:19:05.590 to the opposition party. You know, this is like politics 101. 0:19:05.590 --> 0:19:08.889 This is very basic pattern. And what we're looking at 0:19:08.930 --> 0:19:11.300 is this, this could be even stronger this year than 0:19:11.700 --> 0:19:13.520 some years previously, probably not as strong as 2018, but, 0:19:14.660 --> 0:19:18.160 But taking back the Senate and the House would be huge, 0:19:18.180 --> 0:19:19.899 especially because of how far they have to go in 0:19:19.940 --> 0:19:23.390 the Senate in order to retake it. Yeah. Now, the 0:19:23.430 --> 0:19:25.870 race in Alaska, this definitely used to lean Republican, right? 0:19:25.910 --> 0:19:28.150 This was not seen to be a very competitive race. 0:19:28.830 --> 0:19:32.100 But recently, this went to a toss-up, right? And now, 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:36.000 some models even have it leaning Democrat. So this is 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:37.340 one race where there's been a lot of movement. 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:38.660 And J.D. 0:19:38.700 --> 0:19:43.830 Vance was dropped into Alaska to campaign for Sullivan last week. 0:19:44.150 --> 0:19:46.240 something that they may not have needed to do or 0:19:46.300 --> 0:19:48.430 thought they needed to do a few months ago. 0:19:49.050 --> 0:19:51.600 But now... this is competitive enough that they're sending in 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:53.080 the vice president. Will J.D. 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:57.480 Vance actually help Republicans win the state? That's certainly debatable. 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:00.250 I don't know if I would be putting J.D. in 0:20:00.310 --> 0:20:01.310 as my pen shitter. 0:20:01.350 --> 0:20:03.250 That's the thing, right? 0:20:03.310 --> 0:20:05.150 I don't know who I'd put in as my pen 0:20:05.170 --> 0:20:08.370 shitter right now in the Republican bench, but Vance would 0:20:08.410 --> 0:20:15.950 be the bottom of my list. Like, honestly, send in Fetterman. No, legitimately, yes. 0:20:16.270 --> 0:20:17.750 He'll do better for you. 0:20:17.670 --> 0:20:18.090 In this instance. 0:20:18.130 --> 0:20:21.870 Sending Fetterman to campaign for the Republicans would be, I think, 0:20:21.950 --> 0:20:23.359 probably a smarter move. 0:20:23.720 --> 0:20:27.500 Yeah, you could convince him to do it. What a nightmare. 0:20:27.780 --> 0:20:29.840 What a horrible situation. 0:20:30.440 --> 0:20:34.639