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Speaker 2: Want to bounce off with Live Nation and our next guest,
Speaker 2: Jennifer Reed, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Litigation analyst. Jennifer, thanks so
Speaker 2: much for coming in studio here. We don't know a
Speaker 2: lot about this Live Nation settlement, right, Maybe we should
Speaker 2: just start with what.
Speaker 3: Do we know?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 3: And it's changing by the minute, by the way. I
Speaker 3: keep seeing new reports with new details. But it looks
Speaker 3: like at least one part of it is a divestiture
Speaker 3: that would be divesting large amphitheaters that are owned by
Speaker 3: Live Nation. The Department of Justice alleged that Live Nation
Speaker 3: owned sixty out of the one hundred top amphitheaters in
Speaker 3: the US, and the control over those amphitheaters, which the
Speaker 3: artists really needed for summer tours. Desire for summer tours
Speaker 3: was part of the problem some of the claims that
Speaker 3: were left in this litigation, so selling some of them
Speaker 3: opens them up to other promoters.
Speaker 5: Okay, I guess one big question people had was Ticketmaster.
Speaker 5: The fate of Ticketmaster and whether that stays with Live
Speaker 5: Nation or whether it's spun out or the company's forced
Speaker 5: to sell that. Do we have a firm answer as
Speaker 5: to what happens to Ticketmaster.
Speaker 6: Well not really.
Speaker 3: According to the DOJ settlement, it does not have to
Speaker 3: be sold. But there are forty states involved as well.
Speaker 3: They are also plaintiffs, and they also have the authority
Speaker 3: to litigate under federal antitrust laws just as the Department
Speaker 3: of Justice does, and not all of them have settled.
Speaker 3: According to the news reports, New York has actually come
Speaker 3: out and said this isn't good enough. We're going to
Speaker 3: continue on. So if they continue on with the litigation,
Speaker 3: they will continue to seek a divestit your order from
Speaker 3: the judge for Live Nation to sell Ticketmaster. They see
Speaker 3: that as the only solution to kind of fix a
Speaker 3: broken concert ticketing system and live concert industry. I'll tell you,
Speaker 3: I think it's a long shot. You know, once you
Speaker 3: get this settlement with the Department of Justice and you
Speaker 3: kind of get the lose the weight of the Department
Speaker 3: of Justice behind you on these anti trust matters. It
Speaker 3: is difficult for the States to go forward and win,
Speaker 3: even if they won a jury determination that Live Nation
Speaker 3: was guilty of a legal monopolization. I'm not so sure
Speaker 3: that the judge would be willing to stick his neck
Speaker 3: out and impose what's considered a really drastic remedy generally
Speaker 3: to force a company to break itself up.
Speaker 2: So let's play pretend and say the States are not
Speaker 2: successful with their trials. Does this DOJ settlement mean anything
Speaker 2: at all to you and me when we go out
Speaker 2: to try to buy tickets. I mean, and I've said
Speaker 2: this people who listen to the show regularly. No, I
Speaker 2: talk about being a family of five, and man, if
Speaker 2: you had taken a small mortgage, this just like take
Speaker 2: the whole Saley to go see a show. So is
Speaker 2: that going to get any better under this settlement as
Speaker 2: it stands.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that I'm skeptical. And you know what
Speaker 3: you just said is why this case is so politically popular.
Speaker 3: And this was a little bit surprising because it really
Speaker 3: has bipartisan interest. It has bipartisan support, you know, consumer support.
Speaker 3: Kid Rock was going to come along and he was
Speaker 3: going to be a witness for the plaintiffs in this
Speaker 3: case because Live Nation has been under a Department of
Speaker 3: Justice consent order since twenty ten, So, in other words,
Speaker 3: since twenty ten, the way they behave in the marketplace
Speaker 3: was supposed to be regulated. They were supposed to behave
Speaker 3: in a certain way, and they've managed to really get
Speaker 3: around that for years. In fact, during the first Trump administration,
Speaker 3: the Department of Justice investigated, determined that Live Nation was
Speaker 3: violating the terms of that order, and extended it and
Speaker 3: sort of bolstered its terms. And now this case came
Speaker 3: along with the allegation that no Live Nation continues to
Speaker 3: violate the terms of that order. And so my skepticism
Speaker 3: comes from, there are new terms here that they're talking about.
Speaker 3: That again, our behavioral I talked about selling the amps,
Speaker 3: but there are also behavioral conditions, and if Live Nation
Speaker 3: has been able to get around behavioral conditions since twenty ten,
Speaker 3: I'm not sure what's going to stop now.
Speaker 5: What about Ticketmaster's competitors. Have they done things better? Have
Speaker 5: they changed a way that they sell tickets or that
Speaker 5: they allow people to buy and sell tickets.
Speaker 3: What's interesting you ask, because the CEO and founder of
Speaker 3: seat Geek was one of the witnesses I heard last week,
Speaker 3: and seat geek started as a secondary ticket seller. They
Speaker 3: were just a marketplace to bring together people who wanted
Speaker 3: to sell tickets they couldn't use and buyers. But they're
Speaker 3: trying to get into what's called primary ticketing, being the
Speaker 3: first one to ticket an event, and really have struggled.
Speaker 3: And they say they have struggled because of Live Nation,
Speaker 3: that they have superior technology, that their platform is better,
Speaker 3: that what they can offer venues is better, but they
Speaker 3: haven't been able to get those venues signed up because
Speaker 3: either they have a long term exclusive agreement to be
Speaker 3: ticketed by Ticketmaster, or because Live Nation, which is a
Speaker 3: huge promoter handles artists tours, said we'll route our artists
Speaker 3: around your venue. We won't bring them to your venue
Speaker 3: if you use some company other than Ticketmaster.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 2: Just a few days ago, Novo Nordisk was suing Hymns
Speaker 2: and Hers because they were selling a cheaper knockoff brand
Speaker 2: of their best selling WGOVI blockbuster obesity drub. Well, you
Speaker 2: know what, now they're in business once again with Hymns
Speaker 2: and Hers here to break it down. As Madison Muller
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News health reporter boy shares of Hymns and Hers
Speaker 2: up now, I think better than thirty percent. So Wall
Speaker 2: Street obviously likes this situation. How are these two companies
Speaker 2: working together?
Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a little bit of a crazy, surprising situation
Speaker 7: that ends a month's long saga between the two companies.
Speaker 7: They are now pairing up for the second time to
Speaker 7: allow Novo to sell discounted versions of its weight loss
Speaker 7: drugs on Hymns and Hers telehealth platform. And people might
Speaker 7: recall that this actually was the case back in June.
Speaker 7: The two companies were working together to do something similar
Speaker 7: and that sort of fell apart spectacularly when Novo accused
Speaker 7: Hims of deceptive marketing of these copycat weight loss medications
Speaker 7: that it was continuing to sell on its platform, and
Speaker 7: that really sent him shares down at the time. But
Speaker 7: the two companies since then have traded various barbs I
Speaker 7: mean with Novo suing HIMS over selling a copycat version
Speaker 7: of its blockbuster weight loss pill that recently launched, And
Speaker 7: so this is definitely a surprise too. I think a
Speaker 7: lot of investors out there who had expected this to
Speaker 7: continue dragging on between the two companies.
Speaker 2: So is this what's really driving this strategic partnership though?
Speaker 2: Is it eHealth these eHealth providers and if so, sort
Speaker 2: of connect those dots for us.
Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think on both sides, both
Speaker 7: companies are under enormous pressure right now. HYMNS mounting regulatory
Speaker 7: and legal pressure, both with the Nova Noordist lawsuit that
Speaker 7: now has been pulled, but also with the FDA saying
Speaker 7: that it was going to crack down on compounded weight
Speaker 7: loss drugs. There's a possible DOJ investigation, and they also
Speaker 7: disclosed during earnings a couple of weeks ago that they're
Speaker 7: under investigation by the SEC. So they have a lot
Speaker 7: going on themselves and really need a path forward, even
Speaker 7: though they have other offerings on their platform. Investors really
Speaker 7: have said that they don't see another similar avenue of
Speaker 7: growth like weight loss drugs. Then on the Novo Nordisk side,
Speaker 7: Novo has really been losing market share to companies like
Speaker 7: Hymns that sell these knockoff weight loss drugs, as well
Speaker 7: as Eli Lilly, which is a massive pharmaceutical company based
Speaker 7: here in the US, and they have rival weight loss
Speaker 7: drugs that have become more popular than Novo's. So there's
Speaker 7: a lot of pressure for both companies on both sides.
Speaker 7: These ehalth platforms, like you said, have been an enormous
Speaker 7: driver of growth for Lily and for Novo. A lot
Speaker 7: of patients are seeking out these medications on these online
Speaker 7: platforms where it's often easier and can be cheaper to
Speaker 7: get these medications, and so partnering both companies have been
Speaker 7: looking to partner with a lot of these eHealth companies,
Speaker 7: from Row to weight Watchers to Hymns and Hers.
Speaker 2: Right, what is Hymns and her sort of bread and
Speaker 2: butter if you will?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean for a long time it was a
Speaker 7: rectile dysfunction and hair loss drugs, okay, And so they
Speaker 7: really went after this you know, consumer market, consumer drugs
Speaker 7: that are popular and that maybe patients didn't you know,
Speaker 7: were embarrassed for whatever reason to go into their doctor
Speaker 7: and ask for these medications. They wanted a more discreete
Speaker 7: online sort of service where they can get them. But
Speaker 7: then when they moved into weight loss drugs I think
Speaker 7: two years ago now at this point, that really became
Speaker 7: what put them on the map for a lot of people.
Speaker 7: I mean I still talk to people who weren't really
Speaker 7: paying attention to what Hymns was doing until they started
Speaker 7: selling weight loss drugs, and that was a massive boon
Speaker 7: for them over the last couple of years and really
Speaker 7: a major growth driver. And then when that sort of
Speaker 7: ended that it became a question mark of sort of
Speaker 7: what was going to be that next avenue of growth
Speaker 7: for them.
Speaker 2: So Nogo has a new CEO, right, Mike is it
Speaker 2: Dukeston Star? He was personally involved in these negotiations with
Speaker 2: Hymns and hers. What does that sort of tell you
Speaker 2: about this new CEO? I guess a much more hands
Speaker 2: on approach than some others might have.
Speaker 7: Yeah, definitely. And the last sort of talks and issues
Speaker 7: really fell apart under Novo's last CEO, So Mike was
Speaker 7: kind of looking to bring things back and really, from
Speaker 7: what we understand, like shepherded this renewed partnership between the
Speaker 7: two companies. He was very involved him and the HYMN
Speaker 7: CEO Andrew Dudam spoke directly worked directly on reigniting this
Speaker 7: partnership between the two companies. You know, Mike has taken
Speaker 7: a more aggressive approach than Novo has historically Novo's CEOs
Speaker 7: have historically because they've really lost out in the US
Speaker 7: market that they have helped create, and that is the
Speaker 7: most lucrative weight loss drug market, and he's looking for
Speaker 7: aggressive actions to get them back in the game, everything
Speaker 7: from M and A to sort of the approach that
Speaker 7: they're taking with these compounding pharmacies and with these eHealth companies.
Speaker 7: And one of the things he has told us that
Speaker 7: when he took this job several months ago, one of
Speaker 7: the feedbacks he got from a lot of investors and
Speaker 7: analysts was that Nova wasn't making the most of this
Speaker 7: you know, consumer health e health market like in the
Speaker 7: same way that Lily was, and that was somewhere where
Speaker 7: they could really improve things. So he's said that that's
Speaker 7: been a major push for them, even with sort of
Speaker 7: refreshing their own consumer health websites and the way that
Speaker 7: everything looks, just making it a better experience for consumer's patients.
Speaker 7: And so that sort of fits in with this same
Speaker 7: strategy with hims.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 5: We want to talk a little bit about some individual sectors,
Speaker 5: and here I'm really talking about consumer and high end.
Speaker 6: Consumer, luxury consumer.
Speaker 5: They are obviously impacted by how people feel when it
Speaker 5: comes to the conflict in the Middle East and how
Speaker 5: comfortable people feel about spending in this current environment.
Speaker 6: There's a lot of uncertainty out there. What does that.
Speaker 5: Mean for companies like LVMH what does it mean for
Speaker 5: the companies behind Cardier. Deborah Aiken is the luxury goods
Speaker 5: analysts here a Bloomberg Intelligence and joins us now from London,
Speaker 5: and Deborah, you've crunched the numbers and you say that
Speaker 5: this Middle East war will have a quantifiable impact on
Speaker 5: the luxury goods space, at least what was expected for
Speaker 5: twenty twenty six.
Speaker 8: That's right, yes, So we went through some estimates and
Speaker 8: some data from third party sources. We started with Alta
Speaker 8: Gamma who having spoken to around nineteen sul side analysts,
Speaker 8: it'd looked at twenty twenty six and we saw that
Speaker 8: the highest growth was set to come from Middle East
Speaker 8: at around six percent, of which four and a half
Speaker 8: percent from locals and one and a half percent from tourists.
Speaker 8: And that was the fastest growth in the sector in
Speaker 8: a sector which we expected for twenty six grow to
Speaker 8: forty five percent. So we then start to say, okay,
Speaker 8: what happens if we see demand coming off in the
Speaker 8: Middle East locally at around ten percent, and that gave
Speaker 8: us about a fifty big stent for every ten percent
Speaker 8: that was coming off, And given that we get a
Speaker 8: lot of that high wealth traveling abroad also to spend,
Speaker 8: we felt they could quite quickly across the year and
Speaker 8: dependent on what would happen around the area, with around
Speaker 8: one and a half percent shaped off that four percent
Speaker 8: overall for the global industry.
Speaker 2: Deb of the luxury names, the luxury retailers globally, is
Speaker 2: anyone particularly better positioned to sort of weather the storm.
Speaker 8: I think we need to think about the biggest global
Speaker 8: makers and the most high end so we know companies
Speaker 8: like air Mares and Brunellocutionelli are running and expecting high
Speaker 8: single digital load double digit growth in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 8: Much of that comes from parts of Asia at the
Speaker 8: high end, very much from the US, part of Europe
Speaker 8: and the Middle East, so there's a very good mix there.
Speaker 8: And then also we could look at names like Richemond
Speaker 8: for example, where Cartier is being growing very strongly. And
Speaker 8: Richemon incidentally is one of only two who give away
Speaker 8: their breakdown in Middle Eastern Africa. They have nine percent
Speaker 8: of sales from maa region prior to being the other
Speaker 8: with around four percent, which is where it is on
Speaker 8: average for the industry overall for Middle East Africa. But
Speaker 8: overall we would expect Rolexas and others to do very
Speaker 8: well with wait to lists, so high end jewelry and
Speaker 8: some of the high end leather goods or apparel makers
Speaker 8: we would would do very well. It's quite interesting that
Speaker 8: into this geopolitical unrest for Q four there were some
Speaker 8: big names coming through with high single digital or double
Speaker 8: digit growth from the Middle East. So if things do
Speaker 8: continue for a long time, it does knock some of
Speaker 8: the growth away.
Speaker 5: You mentioned jewelry and you mentioned leather goods. What about spirits?
Speaker 5: How is that different when it comes to the breakdown
Speaker 5: the categories within luxury.
Speaker 8: So the only spirit maker that I closely follows my
Speaker 8: one of my colleagues covers the high end spirits. But
Speaker 8: I would be looking at what would happen within LVMH group.
Speaker 8: Their biggest exposures were out of Asia and the US
Speaker 8: and where they were doing very well again in Champagnes,
Speaker 8: doing better in wines, but spirits, particularly cognacs were difficult
Speaker 8: again for twenty twenty six. So the growth outlook there
Speaker 8: wasn't very strong.
Speaker 6: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 5: Long term bonials as they go, So go mortgage rates
Speaker 5: and so I want to bring in our next guest.
Speaker 5: She is Best Friedman, CEO at Brown Harris Stevens, to
Speaker 5: join us to talk about what's happening in the residential
Speaker 5: housing market and Best, I guess the best way I
Speaker 5: want to start things off is to kind of take
Speaker 5: a big step back and consider just how much international
Speaker 5: conflicts tend.
Speaker 6: To affect the housing market.
Speaker 5: Yes, we know they lead to hire bond yields and
Speaker 5: or they can lead to higher boniolds in this case,
Speaker 5: which could increase mortgage rates. But what does it mean
Speaker 5: in terms of demand overall for housing in the US?
Speaker 4: Well, good morning, thank you for having me this morning.
Speaker 4: You know, I think it's just more volatility and uncertainty,
Speaker 4: and I think, you know, we've already had sort of
Speaker 4: a bit of a frozen housing market and some challenges
Speaker 4: with affordability, and this just creates a little bit more
Speaker 4: sort of concern for buyers who've been on the sidelines
Speaker 4: a bit, and so they may hold off. Even though
Speaker 4: we saw rates go down there lower than they were
Speaker 4: the thirty year from a year ago, which is good.
Speaker 4: But this war is not really great for markets because
Speaker 4: you know, people don't know what's going to be and
Speaker 4: so it's it's hard to say what the impact will be.
Speaker 4: But you know, I think it's going to be slow
Speaker 4: and steady, and people are watching, and you know, when
Speaker 4: buyers need to buy and can buy, they do, Uh,
Speaker 4: and in this environment, it's sort of wait and see
Speaker 4: a little bit.
Speaker 2: Is cash still king in the home buying market right now?
Speaker 2: Because we knew for a long time there was this
Speaker 2: trend of people who had the cash were using it.
Speaker 2: It was really hard for other people to go up
Speaker 2: against them and win in these bidding wars. Is that
Speaker 2: still the case or is that starting to you know,
Speaker 2: pull back a little.
Speaker 4: Bit, you know, I'm still seeing the cash is king.
Speaker 4: Last year we saw you know, especially in places like
Speaker 4: New York City where you have discretionary markets, you know,
Speaker 4: where people are buying their second or third home, you know,
Speaker 4: cash is king. And we saw more than half the
Speaker 4: deals last year in New York City were done in cash.
Speaker 4: And so yeah, I think that goes a long way,
Speaker 4: especially because money is more expensive. So if people have
Speaker 4: the cash, they're using it to buy their homes. So
Speaker 4: I haven't seen that mitigate at all. I see. I
Speaker 4: think people who can afford to and have cash are
Speaker 4: going to use it versus getting a mortgage.
Speaker 5: And a lot of the people who have the cash
Speaker 5: tend to be international buyers as well. How present are
Speaker 5: they in this housing market?
Speaker 4: Not seeing a lot of the international buyers as of
Speaker 4: late I see a lot of domestic people moving from
Speaker 4: within states, you know, like New York to Texas, New
Speaker 4: York to Florida. But that sort of thing about I
Speaker 4: don't see a huge international presence.
Speaker 2: When you look at affordability across the map of the US,
Speaker 2: where does the buyer get the most value for their
Speaker 2: money at the moment.
Speaker 4: I mean, that's so it's really hard to say. I mean,
Speaker 4: there's certain pockets and areas, you know, in different places
Speaker 4: of the United States where there are good you know,
Speaker 4: deals where there's ample supply. But you know, there's certain
Speaker 4: parts of New York, even New York City, where there's
Speaker 4: decent supply and people can and negotiate and and and
Speaker 4: really get something that makes sense, where the price per
Speaker 4: square foot is really a good value. Parts of Brooklyn,
Speaker 4: there's parts of upstate New York and Florida. There's different areas.
Speaker 4: It really depends on someone's circumstances and what they can afford.
Speaker 4: But where you see tighter plate supply, like places like
Speaker 4: Palm Beach and Connecticut, that's where buyers are much more challenged.
Speaker 4: But there's certain areas, like you know in California, and
Speaker 4: different areas where there is decent there's a decent amount
Speaker 4: of supply. It just really depends because real estate is
Speaker 4: so local, and it depends on someone's circumstances and what
Speaker 4: they can afford.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Absolutely, I mean one one town in one state will
Speaker 5: be completely different from another town in the same state.
Speaker 5: What does inventory look like when it comes to existing
Speaker 5: homes versus newly new construction.
Speaker 4: You know, you guys probably have read this stat that
Speaker 4: we have a shortage of homes in the United States
Speaker 4: of roughly four million, give or take, and we have
Speaker 4: a real you know challenge and that we need to
Speaker 4: get more supply. So you know, builders are you know,
Speaker 4: not as quick to build today as they were, and
Speaker 4: so we're not seeing the same incentives to build. We
Speaker 4: have challenges with zoning, and the people that own homes
Speaker 4: already are taking their time to sell as well because
Speaker 4: they have locked in rates that are lower and therefore
Speaker 4: they don't want to list in sell. So we have
Speaker 4: a challenge in both areas, and so you know, we're
Speaker 4: trying to do things like as you guys are probably
Speaker 4: aware of City of Yes where that was able to
Speaker 4: we're able to get something like eighty thousand new units
Speaker 4: into the housing market. We need more legislation like that
Speaker 4: so that we can get you know, more supplying to
Speaker 4: the market. So new home sales are you know, new
Speaker 4: builder sales are slower, but you know, it's sort of
Speaker 4: a challenge in both arenas, in the resale market and
Speaker 4: in the new home market.
Speaker 2: I'm wondering if it's going to if banks are going
Speaker 2: to get a little stingy when it comes to mortgages
Speaker 2: in the months ahead. And part of that I'm wondering
Speaker 2: is is might that be a knockoff effect of the
Speaker 2: cracks we're seeing in the private credit market. Are there
Speaker 2: any signs out there that make you think it's going
Speaker 2: to be harder for folks to get a mortgage in
Speaker 2: the coming months.
Speaker 4: And seeing anything in particular, but you know, it's been
Speaker 4: somewhat slow. If you talk to mortgage professionals, they'll tell
Speaker 4: you that people you know, are taking their time where
Speaker 4: they're not you know, jumping into the housing market in
Speaker 4: the way that they were. There's a little bit more
Speaker 4: refinancing right now, but I'm not seeing anything via restrictions
Speaker 4: that are prohibiting people. It's more of you know, people
Speaker 4: feel they can't afford to buy their first time home.
Speaker 4: The stat was something like, first time home buyers are
Speaker 4: now roughly forty years old when they used to be
Speaker 4: twenty eight years old, just you know, a little more
Speaker 4: than ten years ago. So people have been priced out
Speaker 4: of the American dream, as they say, and so hopefully
Speaker 4: we can come up with new incentives and ways for
Speaker 4: people to be able to get back into the housing market,
Speaker 4: things like city of yes, good legislation, up zoning, all
Speaker 4: those things. We need more supply. That's really the biggest issue.
Speaker 4: You know, every article you read from economists, from law professors,
Speaker 4: they talk about the fact that we just we need
Speaker 4: more supply and we have to put more supply in
Speaker 4: the market. Freezing rents, those sorts of things certainly do
Speaker 4: not help the market.
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