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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game jewish prow read enough.

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: D sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with mind, buddy, And that's

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Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 3: Most dangerous a mount of the planet. Nobody picts them.

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Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The all is left to one of the wide eyed,

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Speaker 1: drilled bibused.

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Speaker 3: How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everyone, and welcome to the one hundredth episode of

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Speaker 4: Wondergo Soccer Betting podcast from the Action Network. My name

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Speaker 4: is Michael Lee. Buff joining me is always will be

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Speaker 4: my co host colleagues friends b J Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo.

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Speaker 4: But before I bring those two gentlemen in and we

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Speaker 4: handicap the Premier League, then we jump around Bundesliga. We

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Speaker 4: have some some futures we're giving out as well in

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Speaker 4: league Bundesliga, some best bets at Syria and La Liga

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Speaker 4: of course our underdog parlay and then our best bets.

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Speaker 4: But before I bring them in, some homework to attend

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Speaker 4: to this is our one hundredth episode of Wonder Goal

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Speaker 4: and to celebrate that, we are holding a contest and

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Speaker 4: to enter said contests, all you need to do is

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Speaker 4: tweet at Chad Milman, our boss. His Twitter handle is

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Speaker 4: at Chad Milman and say congratulations on one hundred episodes

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Speaker 4: of Wonder Goal. Just hashtag wonder Goal so we can

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Speaker 4: find you and you will be automatically entered to win

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Speaker 4: a prize. We'll pick two people. The prize will be

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Speaker 4: revealed on next week's show. And of course, Wonder Goal

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Speaker 4: is presented to you by Bet three sixty five, the

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Speaker 4: world's favorite sportsbook brand up with promo code. Action to

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Speaker 4: get Bet three six fis exclusive signup offer in New

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Speaker 4: Jersey and Colorado, but one dollar in any game get

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Speaker 4: two hundred three. All right, Uh, pretty simple place to

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Speaker 4: start here. The headliner is coming your way eleven thirty

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Speaker 4: am on Sunday. That's Tottenham hosting Manchester City Spurs plus

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Speaker 4: three thirty three at Bet three six five City minus

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Speaker 4: one thirty eight. The draw is three to one. If

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Speaker 4: this sounds familiar, it is. We just saw these two

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Speaker 4: teams play a couple weeks ago. City beat Spurs four

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Speaker 4: to two in a wild game. Spurs scored two goals

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Speaker 4: late in the first half to go up to nil,

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Speaker 4: and then City stormed them. They pulled the Spurs. They

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Speaker 4: pulled the Spurs against Spurs since the World Cup, Spurs

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Speaker 4: are two to one to three win draw loss, with

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Speaker 4: a minus one goal difference and a minus two point

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Speaker 4: eight expected goal difference. We don't need to get into

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Speaker 4: City's numbers. They look like City's numbers usually do as usual.

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Speaker 4: This is this. I like to look at City and

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Speaker 4: Spurs as styles make fights, and when Spurs are big

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Speaker 4: enough prices, which I think they are at home, it's

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Speaker 4: pretty close. They get interested. They get interesting against Pep City.

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Speaker 2: So I'm leaning towards Spurs. We'll see if I get there.

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Speaker 4: You can follow me BJ Anthony in the Action Network app,

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Speaker 4: and of course you could follow the Wonder Goal podcast

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Speaker 4: in the Action net We're at Action Network app. There

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Speaker 4: are some other underdogs. I think I'll be backing in

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Speaker 4: steat of Spurs, but I could be talked into them.

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Speaker 4: Maybe I'll be talked into them by you, BJ.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'll be betting Totenham in this match,

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Speaker 1: so I think City are incredibly interesting right now, even

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Speaker 1: this match and going forward. So if you go back

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Speaker 1: to the last time they're on the pitch, it was

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Speaker 1: against Arsenal's B team in the FA Cup and they

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Speaker 1: did nothing for the match. They created point three to

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Speaker 1: two expected goals, expected threat of point seventy four and

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Speaker 1: just two penalty box shots and both those shots came

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Speaker 1: after Thomas Party left the pit. So now, obviously we

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Speaker 1: just saw this match very very very recently, but I

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Speaker 1: found it very interesting that City sold Kinslo at the deadline.

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Speaker 1: I think it leaves them very very thin at the

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Speaker 1: fullback position right now because.

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Speaker 2: What City has been doing lately.

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Speaker 1: So what they were doing at the beginning of the

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Speaker 1: year is they were building up in a two two

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Speaker 1: three three or four two whatever. They were basically pushing

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Speaker 1: six guys up to the front line. One of those

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Speaker 1: guys that was in the build up play was Cancelo.

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Speaker 1: He was inverting to be alongside Good a gun and

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Speaker 1: even before the World Cup he started twelve of the

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Speaker 1: thirteen matches at left back and the one match he

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Speaker 1: didn't start it was when Kyle Walker was out and

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Speaker 1: he transitioned over to right back. Now they're gonna probably

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Speaker 1: be starting Nathan Ake and left back in Rico Lewis

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Speaker 1: at right back. Now I've been inverting Rico Lewis to

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Speaker 1: play the role that Cansalo was playing. But now City

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Speaker 1: is building up in a three to two three whatever.

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Speaker 2: You know basically that now they're.

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Speaker 1: Only pushing five guys up to the final line, so

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Speaker 1: you have less guys to create that numerical advantage against

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Speaker 1: teams who want to play a low block, something that

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Speaker 1: Arsenal did to a great effect against City in the

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Speaker 1: FA Cup. So now we're looking at a situation where

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Speaker 1: Nathan Ake, who historically has been pretty injury prone, if

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Speaker 1: he gets injured, City has nobody left in the fullback position.

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Speaker 1: John Stones is injured right now, he's the one and

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Speaker 1: more versatile defenders they have who can play right back

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Speaker 1: potentially left back. So now Pep is putting all of

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Speaker 1: his faith in an eighteen year old Rico Louis, who

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Speaker 1: has been unbelievable so far, like he's a very very

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Speaker 1: good but City going forward, I mean, Anthony's mentioned it

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Speaker 1: many times about how you know, Holland they has essentially

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Speaker 1: kind of made them worse because their shots are down

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Speaker 1: and they're not really getting the production that they were

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Speaker 1: getting as in years past when they didn't have him.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you just look through City's recent results,

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Speaker 1: like they have somewhat struggled to break down low blocks

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Speaker 1: outside of you know, obviously they created over two expected

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Speaker 1: goals against Tottenham, but they did nothing in the first

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Speaker 1: half of that match, Like they created zero point four.

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Speaker 2: To four expected goals. Like, I get it.

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Speaker 1: Tottenham's two goals were kind of fluky and for a

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Speaker 1: couple of mistakes. But with that being said, you even

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Speaker 1: look at the match against Wolves, like City got a penalty,

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Speaker 1: they did nothing up until he scored the first goal.

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Speaker 1: They only created one big scoring chance in that match.

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Speaker 1: So now we're going forward, can they do it again

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Speaker 1: to Tottenham? I'm not so sure. I mean United stifled

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Speaker 1: City kept him out of the middle of the pitch,

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Speaker 1: and who's to say that Tottham can't do it this

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Speaker 1: time around again if they just don't fall apart in

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Speaker 1: the second half. So I probably will be on Spurs,

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Speaker 1: But I mean it is hard. The price is getting

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Speaker 1: much shorter and shorter on City. They were minus one

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Speaker 1: fifty and now they're down to minus one thirty five

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Speaker 1: At some books.

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Speaker 2: So it's getting harder and harder.

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Speaker 1: To play Tottenham, but I'll probably eventually be on them,

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Speaker 1: and I'll be kind of looking to fade City going forward.

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Speaker 4: And do you think this one could kind of turn

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Speaker 4: into a little bit of a a chess match, a

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Speaker 4: rock fight.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I bet under three two weeks ago

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Speaker 3: it plus one oh one, and I would bet it again,

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Speaker 3: you know, I know the game ended his six goals,

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Speaker 3: and so you can look at me and be like, oh,

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Speaker 3: you're an idiot, you know, what are you doing? Terrible

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Speaker 3: read and in the end, probably deserve to go over

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Speaker 3: with the way the second half Spurs just completely fell

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Speaker 3: apart defensively. But I think bj made a good point.

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Speaker 3: You know, City had point four to four expected goals

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Speaker 3: in the first half at home against Tottenham in and

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Speaker 3: the goal that Spurs scored that kind of changes the

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Speaker 3: game state. Comes from an Edison back pass onto somebody

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Speaker 3: who is basically being pressed turnover, Spurs create huge chance score.

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Speaker 3: That was the kind of the match that lit the

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Speaker 3: fuse that turned the game into a chaos chaotic situation.

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Speaker 3: City go down two goals, they turn off the Jets,

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Speaker 3: Spurs make some defensive issues, they sit too deep. That

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Speaker 3: was a weird game state and you still only had

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Speaker 3: about three expected goals despite that, So I thought, and

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Speaker 3: that was it the EETI had. Now you're going to Tottenham,

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Speaker 3: I think it's a similar situation from a matchup perspective.

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Speaker 3: I think Spurs will continue to have problems in transition.

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Speaker 3: I'm interested by Pedro Poro. I think it definitely helps.

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Speaker 3: Like Spurs had a black hole at right back for

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Speaker 3: the large part of the first half of the season

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Speaker 3: between Doherty and Royale just not really offering much in

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Speaker 3: terms of production. They'll get more from Pooro and I

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Speaker 3: think that makes a big difference because remember like last

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Speaker 3: year when Spurs were really good, it was Doherty being

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Speaker 3: a world class right back for like two months and

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Speaker 3: really providing the extra attack, extra body in the area

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Speaker 3: ball progression. I think they'll get that, but I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure he'll start this match. Even if he does, it'll

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Speaker 3: be a more defensive approach from Spurs. I agree with you,

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Speaker 3: like losing Cancello is a big loss. Rico Lewis can

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Speaker 3: do the job, but can he provide the same level

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Speaker 3: of expected assists Like I think he's just as good

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Speaker 3: as a passer from deep as as Cancelo. Maybe, but

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Speaker 3: he's not going to get forward as much and provide

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Speaker 3: that value that Cancelo was. I think it's the biggest difference.

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Speaker 3: So I think that hurts the City attack a little bit.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean I've been saying this for a

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Speaker 3: few weeks now, maybe a month. City's attack is worse

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Speaker 3: than it was last year. I don't think it's because

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Speaker 3: they signed Earling Holland, but somebody from the Athletic I

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Speaker 3: think it was Michael Cox Alan Maxwell wrote a good piece.

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Speaker 1: It was.

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Speaker 3: Have they become more predictable with Earling Holland. I think

183
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Speaker 3: that's a little bit more interesting and probably more likely.

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Speaker 3: The scenario we don't know. But all the matters is

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Speaker 3: that it is true, like City is a worse attack

186
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Speaker 3: this year than they were last year. It's why I

187
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Speaker 3: bet the under three at minus one twenty. I bet

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Speaker 3: it up to minus one thirty. I think that's the

189
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Speaker 3: really the angle here with Spurs attack. I mean, they

190
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Speaker 3: hosted Fulham, they went to Fulham, they created less than

191
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Speaker 3: one expected goal in that match. They were terrible, Like

192
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Speaker 3: Caine had his one moment of brilliance, but they didn't

193
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Speaker 3: really do much else. That's against one of the worst

194
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Speaker 3: defenses in the PREM. So I don't think Spurs have

195
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Speaker 3: fixed much of anything in their situation right now.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about that one of the worst

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Speaker 4: defenses in the PREM Friday Night Lights Chelsea minus won

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Speaker 4: sixty seven hosting Fulham plus four to seventy five US

199
00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 4: three to one. Chelsea's five to four and five a

200
00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 4: negative point one point five expected goal differential under Graham Potter,

201
00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,920
Speaker 4: and the offense is sputtering, only fourteen goals on eighteen

202
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:15,080
Speaker 4: point six expected goals in their last fourteen contests. So

203
00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:18,840
Speaker 4: maybe not a situation where that Fulham leaky Fulham defense

204
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Speaker 4: will be called into too much of a question, or

205
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Speaker 4: is it one where the progression catches up to that defense.

206
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Speaker 4: I'm going to back the former. I actually think Fulham

207
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Speaker 4: is worth a bet on the money line against this

208
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Speaker 4: Chelsea team. Then I'm just going to continue to go

209
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Speaker 4: against BJ What do you have here?

210
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Speaker 1: I like both teams to score at even money. I mean,

211
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Speaker 1: we obviously just saw this match recently on January twelfth.

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Speaker 1: But the Chelsea offense, I mean it has to get.

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Speaker 2: Better, Like with all the signings that they have it

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Speaker 2: has to.

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Speaker 1: I mean they did create one point six expected goals

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Speaker 1: and had a goal of art out against Liverpool. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the last three matches they have created five point two

218
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Speaker 1: expected goals, which included a really good performance. It's at

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Speaker 1: Craven Cottage where they did create over two expected goals,

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Speaker 1: had ten shots on target, all while playing a man

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Speaker 1: down for the final thirty minutes after gile Felix got

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Speaker 1: the red card. Listen Enzo Fernandez is coming to Chelsea.

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Speaker 1: I mean they needed him and the soldier Genia at

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Speaker 1: the deadline to Arsenal. I don't know if he plays

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Speaker 1: in this match, but in the extreme short term Chelsea

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Speaker 1: looks like Zachary is going to be out for this

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Speaker 1: match as well, so they're probably going to play Conor

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Speaker 1: Gallagher and Kovacic in the midfield. Like that's a problem.

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Speaker 1: And what they ran into against Fulham last match is

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Speaker 1: that Fulham is kind of like you know, we talked

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Speaker 1: about Serby at the World Cup. Well that's basically what

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Speaker 1: Fulham is. Because obviously they have Alexander Mitchevic. They just

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Speaker 1: love to get the ball out wide and swinging crosses.

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Speaker 1: They're completing the second most crosses in the Premier League

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Speaker 1: into the penalty area, and that's some an area where

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Speaker 1: Chelsea struggled against them, like they completed the three of

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Speaker 1: their five crosses that they had. And Alexander Mitchevich didn't

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Speaker 1: play in that match because he was suspended, and we

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Speaker 1: all know how important he is to Fulham's I mean

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Speaker 1: he's created eleven point three of their twenty eight point

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Speaker 1: five expected goals. I mean, he's just about as crucial

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Speaker 1: as anybody in the Premier League to their team. So

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Speaker 1: I think there's definitely a path here for Fulham to

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Speaker 1: potentially score again. Kappa has also been running ridiculously hot,

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Speaker 1: like he's a plus six point eight post shot XG

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Speaker 1: plus minus. And we've talked about the Fulham defense just

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Speaker 1: over and over and over again. They got to regress

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Speaker 1: some point since the World Cup break eight point two

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Speaker 1: expected goals and six big scoring chances allowed, literally second

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Speaker 1: to last in the Premier League, allowing one point six

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Speaker 1: to nine I expected goals per match. They lowed thirty

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Speaker 1: goals I'm thirty point thirty five point eight expected with

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Speaker 1: along with thirty seven big scoring chances. So it's got

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Speaker 1: to regress some point. I think this is the price

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Speaker 1: on this at even money is quite low. I haven't

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Speaker 1: projected at minus one twenty two, so I like both

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Speaker 1: teams to score at even money.

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Speaker 4: The moment you've all come here. For Sean Deitsch, he's

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Speaker 4: ever died out on the field as a plus seven

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Speaker 4: to fifty underdog to Bjay's arsenal minus two fifty. The

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00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:06,640
Speaker 4: draw here is plus three fifty. You have to back

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Speaker 4: Everton at these prices. You just have to. You got

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Speaker 4: to ride the variants in a situation like this. I know,

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Speaker 4: like every number is gonna tell you one thing, but

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Speaker 4: this is gonna hopefully be a completely different Everdent team.

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Speaker 4: And me and I remind you that Everden's best performances

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Speaker 4: this year. You can look at the city one the

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Speaker 4: Liverpool draw earlier came when they set up in a

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Speaker 4: defensive posture, when they played that you know, dogged, throw

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Speaker 4: your body at the ball kind of defense. And I

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Speaker 4: think we're gonna be seeing a lot of that at

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Speaker 4: Goodison Park over these next few weeks. So I think

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Speaker 4: plus seven fifties, just with the new manager, the crowd

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Speaker 4: should it should be a bare pit. How on earth

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Speaker 4: can Henot back the Toffees here? Just ride the chaos

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Speaker 4: that's I think gonna come here. And when that's the case,

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Speaker 4: you always want to look at the bigger price, Anthony,

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Speaker 4: what do you have?

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Speaker 3: Look, if you listen to me on this show, you

280
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Speaker 3: know I've been betting against Everton, at least the defense

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Speaker 3: for a very long time. The numbers were really, really alarming,

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Speaker 3: and they still are. But what do we know about

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Speaker 3: Sean Dish? He is a floor raiser of your defense.

284
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Speaker 3: He will make you better than twentieth and crosses allowed

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Speaker 3: into the penalty area. You will not be the worst

286
00:14:24,600 --> 00:14:26,760
Speaker 3: crossing defense in the league. You will not be the

287
00:14:26,800 --> 00:14:29,760
Speaker 3: worst defense in the league. And given the talent level,

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Speaker 3: I think, like thee this Everton team is more talented

289
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,400
Speaker 3: than any Burnley team he had, So I think that

290
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 3: like you're going to see an improvement in this defense.

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Speaker 3: I know he's got Arcot, you know, Tarkowski in the

292
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Speaker 3: in the in the midfield, in the defense. But like

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Speaker 3: the midfield has some ball winning. The fullbacks are not

294
00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 3: good but good enough, Like some of the fullbacks he

295
00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 3: was dealing with at Burnley just had like zero athleticism,

296
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Speaker 3: no real effectiveness. Now he's got like decent talent, So

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Speaker 3: like I think they can raise the floor enough. I

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Speaker 3: guess is it gonna happen in his first match? Probably not?

299
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Speaker 3: But like, who's betting Everton here besides us? Like Arsenal

300
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:13,160
Speaker 3: is in great form. They haven't lost since nom Like

301
00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:17,040
Speaker 3: Everton hasn't had a good result in months to why

302
00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:21,160
Speaker 3: they just fired Lampard and they're at home. It's easy, right,

303
00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:23,200
Speaker 3: Arsenal minus one point two five, it'll be an easy

304
00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,920
Speaker 3: two nil road win for the gunners. You know this

305
00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,360
Speaker 3: number has come down actually a little bit since Dice

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00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 3: got hired.

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Speaker 2: So I grabbed it.

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Speaker 3: If you follow in the app, I grabbed it plus

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Speaker 3: one and a half minus one twenty five. I love that.

310
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,200
Speaker 3: I still like it a plus one point two five

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Speaker 3: because of the spot, even though we're getting down to

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00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:44,600
Speaker 3: the point where, like my numbers say, hey, Everton still

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00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 3: really sucks. So I'm I'm kind of like if it

314
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 3: gets to below one point two five, I'm out now,

315
00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:55,280
Speaker 3: Like I need that hook, that half hook. But you know,

316
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 3: I like Everton here in this spot. I mean it's

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00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 3: a home run spot. You expect Goodison to support, You

318
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 3: expect it to be raucous like this. This should be

319
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:07,960
Speaker 3: a great Everton spot. Arsenal, like Thomas Party going off

320
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,720
Speaker 3: is like a big miss. I don't know if he's gonna.

321
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 2: Tell a massive miss.

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00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,000
Speaker 3: It's a big miss for that transition defense, the ball

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Speaker 3: winning in the midfield like Haka is good. But like

324
00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 3: Jaka and Sambi Laconga or Georgino, I don't think he'll

325
00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 3: start like I don't know what they do. Like this

326
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Speaker 3: was the thing for Arsenal. Right, it was like, Okay,

327
00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:30,200
Speaker 3: we know the first eleven is really really good. Do

328
00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 3: they have the depth and they haven't had any injuries

329
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 3: really except for Jazus. Like what happens now if they

330
00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:39,280
Speaker 3: lose Party, even for just this match, like it is

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00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 3: a significant enough loss where I think it gets interesting

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Speaker 3: to look at. Also BTTs plus money intriguing. Arsenal's defense

333
00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 3: is run has run pretty pretty good and if you

334
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,240
Speaker 3: take one piece out of it, are they worse? I

335
00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 3: think it's interesting, But I'm gonna stick with my bet

336
00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:58,720
Speaker 3: on Everton go Toffees.

337
00:16:58,800 --> 00:17:00,600
Speaker 4: I'm back to Baby.

338
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,880
Speaker 3: Yeah. I'm also gonna probably bet them to stay up.

339
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:06,040
Speaker 3: I think there you said minus want ad to be relegated.

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00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,720
Speaker 4: Minus one eight. Yeah, there's a second favorite behind.

341
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Speaker 3: Maybe I'll wait for them to lose this match and then.

342
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,639
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, they're absolutely absolutely losing this match. But another

343
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,679
Speaker 4: fun bet I would think about two like this is

344
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 4: just a hunch bet more than anything would be uh

345
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 4: a pun on, Like see who their center backs are,

346
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 4: and we'll know first goal scorer Cody or Tarkowsky on

347
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 4: a set piece because we know how how good Burnley

348
00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,720
Speaker 4: was on set pieces under Sean.

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Speaker 1: And Arsenal one of the best set they're a pretty

350
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,320
Speaker 1: average set piece defense, like they're like sixth or seventh

351
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Speaker 1: in the Premier League. Also, Michael, do you know who

352
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:51,480
Speaker 1: who Everton has on deck? No, some Merseyside derby on

353
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Speaker 1: Monday night.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's an easy win too.

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Speaker 2: And then and then they.

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Speaker 3: Host film so we're catching, we're catching the three quarters

357
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Speaker 3: there were.

358
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're gonna see the same in total over probably.

359
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: Wow, Everton is plus seven fifty the same price as

360
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 1: they are here at home, gets Arsenal. I guess that's

361
00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: how far Liverpool have fallen. Anyway, No, Everton's winning this match, Like,

362
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 1: there's no doubt in my mind they're gonna win this.

363
00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:21,359
Speaker 2: You guys mentioned it.

364
00:18:21,400 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 1: The spot is perfect, party being out, it's just too good.

365
00:18:26,480 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 2: We'll see.

366
00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 3: I mean, I definitely out.

367
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 2: It looks like he's doubtful.

368
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:35,680
Speaker 1: At this point they're doing an MRI scan to see

369
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,159
Speaker 1: how what comes back. But anyway, yeah, no, uh, this

370
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,159
Speaker 1: is a perfect Everton hammer spot. Like I only have

371
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:45,639
Speaker 1: arsenal projector that minus to twenty seven. So I agree,

372
00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,000
Speaker 1: there definitely is some value Hundre Everton. And the thing

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00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: that Disch will will do better than anything Michael is

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Speaker 1: he'll just listen. We love compact defenses on this podcast.

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00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,120
Speaker 1: That's what Everton really needs to do is like they've

376
00:18:59,119 --> 00:19:02,160
Speaker 1: been so bad transition defense, like Lampard tried to turn

377
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,919
Speaker 1: them into a pressing team when in reality they just

378
00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,320
Speaker 1: need to be compact. They just need to sit back,

379
00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,680
Speaker 1: they need to stop pressing. So that's something that Sean

380
00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 1: Ditsche will do better than anybody.

381
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Speaker 4: I am looking forward to it. Let's talk about a

382
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,560
Speaker 4: similar manager to Sean Ditch in some ways some respects,

383
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 4: in a very different one in other respects. That's Unai

384
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 4: Emery and his Aston Villa Villas might as one of

385
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 4: six hosting Leicester City Leicester's plus two eighty the draws

386
00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 4: plus two sixty. I don't want to lay juice with

387
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 4: this Villa team. They are three to one and one

388
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:41,800
Speaker 4: since the break, but they only have seven goals scored

389
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 4: five against in a negative one point twenty five expectacle differential.

390
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 4: They play low events style right now. That's what you'd

391
00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 4: expect under Emory as he's sick in his teeth into

392
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 4: the new squad. But Leicester been so bad one point

393
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 4: since the World Cup came in a dri uh four

394
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:05,280
Speaker 4: defeats three goals ten against at a negative four expect

395
00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 4: the gold of Frigil. This is a pretty easy pass

396
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 4: for me, BJ.

397
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 1: What do you have both teams score no sitting up

398
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:12,160
Speaker 1: plus money plus one ten.

399
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:14,600
Speaker 2: I mean the aston Ville offense has run pretty hot.

400
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 1: Like you mentioned, Uniamori took over eleven goals of eight

401
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: point nine expected Lester. You know, obviously a positive question

402
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:26,640
Speaker 1: candidate on defense. And the biggest thing here is that

403
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 1: obviously what Uniamori's teams do such a good job of

404
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,320
Speaker 1: is they do a really good job at taking a

405
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 1: taking away the space in between the lines. And where

406
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,640
Speaker 1: does Lester do their best work. It's when teams press them.

407
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,160
Speaker 1: They get out into open space and guys like Tilaman's

408
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,240
Speaker 1: and Madison and Barnes are able to operate in space,

409
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 1: get in behind defenses and create chances. And how that's

410
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 1: how you saw them do it against Nottingham Forrest when

411
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 1: they created a couple of big scoring tends, even though

412
00:20:50,200 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 1: they weren't able to do that same thing against Fulham

413
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 1: unamis teams do not allow that to happen. So I

414
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: think this is a good spot on both teams to

415
00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: score no, especially singing up plus money. Both teams to

416
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 1: score no projected at minus one nineteen.

417
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,400
Speaker 2: So uh, I got to play one of my favorite beats.

418
00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,679
Speaker 4: Uh. And you know, I guess it's semi lali. It's

419
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 4: like a semi la Liga. Both teams have scored no

420
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:15,960
Speaker 4: since we're dealing with that.

421
00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 2: Oh wait, just wait for the lag.

422
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I haven't wonderfow.

423
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, but we're going to go for four this weekend.

424
00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 4: Moving on to Brentford and Saints. Southampton's plus three twenty

425
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,960
Speaker 4: on the road, the draw plus two sixty and Brentford

426
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 4: odds on minus one eighteen. Southampton one win, four losses

427
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 4: and they're five matches since the break in those matches

428
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:45,959
Speaker 4: and minus four gold differential four to four eight against

429
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 4: four point eight expected goals created six point one against

430
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:56,880
Speaker 4: the Bees have been pretty damn impressive since coming back

431
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 4: from the World Cup. Three wins, two draws, no losses.

432
00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 4: It's not like they played a cupcake schedule. I mean

433
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 4: they played Spurs and the only cupcake that they played

434
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 4: with us was Liverpool. They played Spurs, Leeds, West hamm

435
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:13,640
Speaker 4: Liverpool and Bournemuth. It's just not a type the type

436
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:16,240
Speaker 4: of team we want to similar to Villa, like you

437
00:22:16,280 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 4: want to lay with as a favorite.

438
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 2: So another pretty easy pass here the ten am.

439
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,240
Speaker 3: Slate easiest pass on the board.

440
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:25,880
Speaker 2: Yeah for me, Yeah, yeah.

441
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: I think all three of us are passing like you know,

442
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 3: you can make me a case for Southampton. But again,

443
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 3: like I just can't bet against Brentford. If the market's

444
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 3: just never going to ever, ever ever give them any respect,

445
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,400
Speaker 3: Like like a minus one thirty five forty, you'd start

446
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 3: to get an inflated Brentford. I'd come back on the Saints,

447
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: but like minus one ten is like kind of where

448
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 3: I have it, and I think that Brentford continues to

449
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 3: do all the little things well that you know, maybe

450
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 3: the market isn't accounting for. I don't know what it is.

451
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,199
Speaker 3: Sixteen seventeenth in the rankings coming into the season and

452
00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 3: like they're not bad again, They're good like an average team.

453
00:22:58,880 --> 00:22:59,560
Speaker 3: BJ was right.

454
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 2: BJ was right, always right.

455
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 4: PJ is always right, especially when it comes to both

456
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: teams to score nos.

457
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:10,560
Speaker 2: In La Liga United.

458
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 4: Let's talk ten another ten am start before we get

459
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 4: to United. Brighton can see Brighton and Bournemouth. Brighton's minus

460
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 4: three hundred crazy. That is not Bourne's going to happen

461
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 4: in two years, everybody, Okay, just just just look out

462
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 4: for it. Yeah, when I'm fired and the new host

463
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 4: is laughing about Brentford being a minest three hundred favorite

464
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 4: against Millwall, will we'll be laughing. The draws plus four

465
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 4: twenty five here, of course, all these odds are from

466
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 4: our friends at bet three six five. Brighton's playing some

467
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 4: crazy matches. Twenty two goals scored, fourteen excuse me, twenty

468
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 4: two total goals in their last five matches fourteen to

469
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:59,639
Speaker 4: four eight against Meanwhile, Bourne, myth. They've scored once since

470
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 4: the World Cup, which ended six weeks ago a while ago. Michael, Yeah,

471
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 4: ted goals allowed four point one expected nine and a

472
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 4: half expected goes allowed. No thanks on this one for me?

473
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 1: That just.

474
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 2: I'll say this.

475
00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 1: I think the Bournemouth attack is going to improve with

476
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: the pieces that they added at the deadline. Like Triora

477
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 1: has been a very productive player for Cusuallo for a

478
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: long time.

479
00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 2: Otara was having.

480
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: A great season at Lorient, So I don't think that

481
00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 1: the the Bournemouth attack.

482
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 2: Is going to be as bad as as it was.

483
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: And then really nice pick up with Zarboni coming over

484
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 1: from Ukraine who actually has been starting. He started for

485
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: Ukraine at the Euros at center back, so he'll improve

486
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: them as well. So I like I was thinking about it.

487
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: I was like, do I potentially maybe play a Bournemouth

488
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: not to get relegated at this point? But I'm not

489
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 1: quite bad.

490
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: Somebody has to get relegated though.

491
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 1: Somebody's got to get relegated. I mean, we keep talking

492
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 1: about it, like, oh like Everton to stay up. Oh

493
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: I like Southampton. They're a good positive progression candidate oh

494
00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:03,480
Speaker 1: Borne withd Someone's got to get relegated, which uh, you know,

495
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 1: hopefully it's hopefully because we all take it.

496
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,120
Speaker 2: I think we all have take it on them.

497
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 1: But no, this is another I think easy passed on

498
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 1: the board. If these pieces that Bournemouth had added at

499
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: the deadline, if this was like two or three weeks

500
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 1: from now and we still had this number. I would

501
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 1: potentially maybe be talking myself into Bournemouth plus more and

502
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:22,960
Speaker 1: a half.

503
00:25:22,760 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 2: But I can't do it right now, so I'm passing.

504
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm close on the under here. It's

505
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 3: like a think about Bournemouth, like, yeah, you mentioned all

506
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 3: the pieces they added. I actually am kind of bullish,

507
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 3: like why didn't they do that in the off season.

508
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 3: Why'd they just burn the first half with the worst

509
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 3: attack like I've ever seen in.

510
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: The prem Michael B Jordan, Anthony just get influx of cash.

511
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:44,760
Speaker 3: That is true. It makes actually, it makes a lot

512
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 3: of sense. But really I forgot about that. But really

513
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 3: it comes down to like Bournemouth's best attackers are all

514
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: still questionable, doubtful or out for this match. Like we

515
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 3: don't have a status on Solanki yet, Tavernier looks questionable,

516
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 3: Cook looks out, Stanislast doubtful. It's like all of these

517
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,399
Speaker 3: pieces that we know they need to do anything. You know,

518
00:26:05,400 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 3: we talked about this when they played Brentford a couple

519
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 3: weeks ago. It's like, oh, all of their like their

520
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 3: attacks already bad and all of the okay, guys are

521
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: already not gonna play, so like they have nothing left.

522
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 3: They're kind of running a skeleton crew. If they don't

523
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:18,439
Speaker 3: get these guys back there, it's gonna be hard for

524
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 3: them to score. Also if they don't press.

525
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: If you don't press Brighton, like Brighton wants to set

526
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: pressing traps.

527
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 3: They want to invite you and then beat you over

528
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 3: the top and get Matoma in space and get Webster

529
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 3: in behind. Like what happens if they just can't or

530
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 3: Ferguson Rather, what happens if they just can't do that?

531
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 3: What happens if you sit deep and let them progress

532
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 3: the ball and then challenge them to break you down.

533
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 3: We haven't really seen that kind of Brighton. They've played

534
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: so many of these big games against bigger sides. You know,

535
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 3: even like a Lester is not that kind of team.

536
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 3: So what are they gonna do in this situation? I

537
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 3: think it's really interesting, and I think at all points

538
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 3: to the under it's sitting at like two point seventy five,

539
00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: like under three minus one thirty. I'm in it's like

540
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 3: minus one forty five fifty right now. It's a little

541
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 3: too much juice for me. But if I can get

542
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 3: that three. I like the under.

543
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 4: Sounds like a wonderful way to spend your Saturday morning.

544
00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 4: United Palace. Manchester United's minus to fifty Crystal Palace seven

545
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:18,400
Speaker 4: to one. The draw is plus three seventy five. If

546
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 4: you told me back around Halloween, maybe even as we

547
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 4: went into the World Cup, that I would be passing

548
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:28,800
Speaker 4: on Crystal Palace as a seven to one underdog at

549
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 4: man United, I'd probably say, Oh yeah, maybe what did

550
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,879
Speaker 4: I finally stop betting? Is that why I passed on it?

551
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,520
Speaker 4: Because I don't bet ever again? But yeah, i' passing

552
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 4: here just because the Palace defense has just been so bad.

553
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 4: They don't look like our beloved Crystal Palace from last year.

554
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, nothing for me here.

555
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 3: Attack might be worse.

556
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 4: Maybe they're gonna they're the thing is gonna get relegated, Antony,

557
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 4: What do you what do you think here?

558
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:57,359
Speaker 2: Look?

559
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 3: I think they just played again. We have a lot

560
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 3: of these. Spurs just played City, Chelsea just played Fulham

561
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,439
Speaker 3: United are playing Palace. We have next week we have

562
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 3: United in Leeds playing Wednesday and then playing over the

563
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 3: weekend in the opposite stadium in the prem It's kind

564
00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 3: of wild. I hate that, but we're becoming the NBA apparently.

565
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 3: But you know, I think from a matchup perspective, it's

566
00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 3: kind of similar to what just happened. I don't really

567
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 3: think anything's really changed. United had a really good first half.

568
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: They scored like a goal right before halftime. They didn't

569
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,960
Speaker 3: really create many big chances. They got their goal, then

570
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,719
Speaker 3: they just kind of sat on the lead and Palace

571
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 3: played their way back into it. I think it can

572
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 3: be kind of similar to that. I think United will

573
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 3: get a goal maybe too, and kind of just keep

574
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 3: tamp down. Sancho and Marshial did come into the game

575
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:47,959
Speaker 3: against Forrest on Wednesday, but I don't expect them to start.

576
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:50,960
Speaker 3: I've said this for a while now. I still don't

577
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: think there's enough shots from this Veg Horst, Anthony Rashford

578
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 3: front three. Now Erickson's out, Fred's replaced him. That's a

579
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 3: defensive upgrade, offensive down grade big time. I mean, Erickson's

580
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,400
Speaker 3: giving them like almost half of an assist per game.

581
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 3: Fred's not giving you that, So you know he's a

582
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 3: he's a better defender. Were legs to run press, but

583
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 3: not you know, play that line breaking pass. So I

584
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: like the under here. We have seen nothing from this, Paler,

585
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 3: I think the attack is even more concerning. The attack

586
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: has been so bad. They hit the banger free kick

587
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 3: to tie it against United, but they had like less

588
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 3: than half of an expected goal in the match. It

589
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: was really bad and that was at home, so under.

590
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean since the World Cup break, Pals has

591
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: only created over one expected goal against one opponent and

592
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: it was Bourne.

593
00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 2: Myth.

594
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: They've created two big scoring chances since the World Cup break,

595
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: both of them came against Bournemouth. And then you mentioned

596
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: you mentioned anything in this match last time. I mean

597
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 1: they created half an expected goal off of ten shots.

598
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: They completed just seven passes into the paneled the area,

599
00:29:57,720 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 1: just twenty touches in the United's panel the area. And

600
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: something that United to give them credit what they've done

601
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: well is they've done a good job shutting down these

602
00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 1: matches against inferior opponents. Obviously they can't do it against

603
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: a team like Arsenal, but they can do it against

604
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 1: you know, these bottom half of the table sides and

605
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: even game state or when United's the leading by one goal,

606
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: they're only allowing a little over one expected goal per

607
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:23,200
Speaker 1: ninety and casamiro I mentioned this before the Arsenal match

608
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:26,479
Speaker 1: is the importance he is, hey, he's had for United.

609
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 1: I mean with him regularly starting the line up, they're

610
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: only allowing point eight expect goals for ninety without him,

611
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: but before him or when he was not playing, they're

612
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: allowing one point six per ninety and the big thing

613
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: for the Palace attack as well, Like it's really bad,

614
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: like they're they're averaging point eighty three non penalty expected

615
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: goals per match. Only Bournemuth is worse. And Wilfrid Zaha

616
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: is going to be out for this match, and like

617
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: you can say, yeah he's washed, like he's getting old.

618
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 1: He's not, doesn't have the same production, but and he

619
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,520
Speaker 1: is only a point two seven x g per ninety

620
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 1: striker or attacker right now. But he's the only that's

621
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: the highest actually for ninety scoring rate they got on

622
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 1: the team for somebodyho's played over a full five nineties.

623
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:10,800
Speaker 1: I mean Mateta, he's the one that's you know, at

624
00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: least putting up a respectable actually for ninety. But again

625
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: he hasn't played that much. So yeah, I'm with you, Anthony.

626
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 1: I like under two and f goals that had even money.

627
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: Uh if the United score I think they'll just try

628
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 1: to shut the game down, and the Palace offense has

629
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: just provided nothing and I don't see it changing anytime soon.

630
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 4: I missed the days when we were talking about Patrick

631
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 4: Vieira as a brilliant manager.

632
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 3: I'm not sure what happened really interesting. I don't think

633
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: it's like, I don't know, he's not having a striker

634
00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 3: we probably should have seen coming. The defense falling off

635
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: makes no sense.

636
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, they just.

637
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 3: Kind of don't have Yeah.

638
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 1: I mean Jockie Manderson's play yeahfield with this match, but

639
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 1: I don't even know if that really matters anymore now.

640
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: Chris Richard is good. He played really well in the

641
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 3: reverse fixture. I thought he was the man of the

642
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,240
Speaker 3: match for me for a Palace least if you don't

643
00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: count the banger. I thought he played really well on

644
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 3: that match. Like they defended really well. They didn't concede

645
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: any big chances until literal stoppage time, So hopefully they

646
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 3: do that again. United wins one nail, two nil, and

647
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: we wait and see where we can fade this United team.

648
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,320
Speaker 3: I don't know that we can anymore. Sancho comes back

649
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 3: and plays what he did today. Fernandez goes out wide,

650
00:32:23,240 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 3: a little bit Sancho in the middle, he finds his form.

651
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 3: Oh they're fun.

652
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 2: So fun.

653
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 4: You know who else is fun? Wolverhampton a lot of fun,

654
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 4: to so much fun. They're three to one at home

655
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 4: hosting Liverpool. Adds on minus one eighteen the draws plus

656
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 4: two seventy five. This looks like a very stoppable force

657
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:48,440
Speaker 4: versus a very movable object. Wolves offense being that's stoppable force.

658
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,640
Speaker 4: Four goals scored in their last five matches on three

659
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 4: point nine expected goals created.

660
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: Oh my god.

661
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 4: Meanwhile, Liverpool e goals allowed, nine expected goles allowed in

662
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 4: the last five. And here's who they played, Villa, Leicester, Brentford,

663
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 4: Bright and Chelsea so decent.

664
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: Boy, they played Wolves and they just played Wolves twice

665
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 1: in the FA Cup. Yeah, and the second round they

666
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: did nothing hard, I mean, he scored and then that

667
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 1: they just sat on it. And Wolves did what they

668
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: did best. They took a billion shots from outside the box.

669
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: And oh they created one point four expected goals but

670
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: none of it was any of any quality. So yeah,

671
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 1: that's probably what we're gonna do here again. And now

672
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 1: we have Kanate out, So you have Van Dyke and Kanate,

673
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: so what's Liverpool going to do defensively? But then y'all

674
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: also say, well, can Wolves even break them down or

675
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:41,320
Speaker 1: are they just gonna try to shoot from distance? And

676
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: hope that Allison's postchat actually plus minus finally regresses. That's

677
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: where I'm at with this match. I actually, like I

678
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: was doing my projections and like Liverpool like they had

679
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: a good run at the beginning of the season, and

680
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 1: like they're expected gol Diffrenchill, like it's not as bad

681
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 1: as Chelsea. You know, they're still sitting around plus five,

682
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 1: Like it's not like it's it's completely cratered and Wolves

683
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 1: and Wolves m minus ten right now. So I keep

684
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: asking myself, like when are we going to hit bottom

685
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: for Liverpool and when is there going to be a

686
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:12,879
Speaker 1: by low opportunity on them. It's not gonna be against

687
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:16,040
Speaker 1: Sean Ditschenette and Everton next Monday, I'll tell you that much.

688
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 1: But like I actually did project some value here on Liverpool,

689
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: but with all the injuries, there's no chance on playing them,

690
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 1: and given the fact that we just saw this very

691
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: recently and they did nothing after Harvey Elliott' squarter a

692
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: banger from outside the box. So yeah, no, I This

693
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,400
Speaker 1: is one of the easiest passes on the board for me.

694
00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 1: I I mean, I don't behoove anybody for fading Liverpool

695
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: at this point. I mean Brighton Brighton pummeled them again,

696
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: not saying Wolves is going to do anywhere close to

697
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 1: what Brighton was able to do. But it's still really

698
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,200
Speaker 1: really bad for Liverpool.

699
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean they started the year okay, I'm looking

700
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 3: at like now, like from the beginning of the season

701
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,280
Speaker 3: through October they were still a plus point seven five

702
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 3: xtually per ninety. But since October third, it's down to

703
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 3: you know, plus point two, so they're like a somewhat

704
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 3: above average barely team.

705
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 2: It's still now worse than Chelsea though. That's the crazy thing.

706
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 3: It's just like giving out right.

707
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: It's bad for Liverpool, but it's still like it's not

708
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 1: cratered completely yet.

709
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: Yeah.

710
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 3: I mean, and look like this match happened in the

711
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 3: FA Cup and the line was pretty close to the same.

712
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 3: Wolves were probably the right side there catching a half.

713
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 3: And then if you think about it, like United closed

714
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 3: minus one tenant Wolves right after the World Cup break

715
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:30,480
Speaker 3: ended too, like right after Boxing Day, it might be

716
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: like New Year's So how much better is Liverpool than

717
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 3: Man United right now, I don't think much, especially with

718
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:42,000
Speaker 3: all the injuries. That's another thing, Like everybody's hurt. So

719
00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 3: it's Gomez and Madip with Alexander Arnold and Robertson like

720
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,000
Speaker 3: in the year twenty twenty three. That's just not a

721
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 3: good Premier League defense. So I like, I mean if

722
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 3: you like Wolves though, like it's got to be.

723
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: Team total Anthony.

724
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, but the team total over is not even a

725
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 3: good number, like you have to you could get a

726
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 3: good first half number, you think, like they shock them

727
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 3: kind of like last year maybe first half team total.

728
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 3: But the other thing is like the three things that

729
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 3: Liverpool doesn't do anymore. They don't give up too many

730
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: big scoring chances. There's terrible on set pieces, and like

731
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: bad in transition, and like Wolves are bad on set pieces,

732
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 3: don't create big scoring chances, and like terror like you said,

733
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 3: like it's just I don't know what to do with

734
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:24,959
Speaker 3: this match.

735
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, what is Liverpool keeven waiting for?

736
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:30,760
Speaker 3: No solids washed Like it's just crazy.

737
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 4: Twelve thirty on Saturday. This one, I'm actually quite pumped

738
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 4: for it. I like to match a lot Newcastle minus

739
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 4: one sixty three hosting our west Ham the Hammers plus

740
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:50,319
Speaker 4: five hundred, the draws plus two seventy five. This is

741
00:36:50,360 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 4: the spot I think I've been waiting for all season

742
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 4: long where you're catching, if you're gonna be catching Newcastle

743
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 4: getting respect from the market, it's the team that is.

744
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 4: I don't want to call them a sleeping giant because

745
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm not a giant there. They're sleeping mid table club.

746
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 4: They're sixteenth right now west Ham, but you look at

747
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 4: their expected points, they should be between like ninth and tenth.

748
00:37:13,040 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 4: They are one of the best defensive teams in the

749
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 4: Premier League. They have a positive expectacle differential on the season.

750
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,160
Speaker 4: At some point West Ham's gonna they're gonna pull one off.

751
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 4: They're gonna pull off a you know what they did

752
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 4: to Liverpool last season. I like the spot for it.

753
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 4: Five to one on the money line. David Moyes. Another

754
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,439
Speaker 4: Moys master class, this time coming in the Northeast, close

755
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 4: to his native Scotland. Yeah, so give me Moyes's band

756
00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 4: charging up the table. It looks like the Hammers are

757
00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 4: gonna start doing so. West Ham team of the podcast,

758
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 4: BJ what do you have?

759
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:52,799
Speaker 1: Yeah?

760
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:53,360
Speaker 2: I like west Ham.

761
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go plus a half at plus one thirty five.

762
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: I mean the low block is still very effective, not

763
00:37:58,520 --> 00:38:00,759
Speaker 1: allowing one penalty.

764
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:01,680
Speaker 2: Expect goal for ninety minutes.

765
00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: Like they're actually playing a little higher average defensive line

766
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:07,040
Speaker 1: than you think. It's about forty three point seventy yards

767
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: away from the goal, which is just a little bit

768
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: higher than Tottenham to give people a perspective. But the

769
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: thing about west Ham is they're providing just no resistance whatsoever.

770
00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 1: They're basically just defending their penalty area, their nineteenth to

771
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 1: pass per defensive action in eighteenth and high turnovers. But

772
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 1: you know, this is something Anthony's mentioned a few times

773
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: on the podcast. When Newcastle is at their best is

774
00:38:28,680 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: when they're the ones playing in transition. They're letting you

775
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,359
Speaker 1: have the ball and they're trying to win the ball

776
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 1: off you by pressing you high. Well, that's not really

777
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 1: going to happen in this match because west Ham is

778
00:38:38,239 --> 00:38:40,840
Speaker 1: going to play so deep and on. What you're starting

779
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 1: to see with Newcastle is now they're a top four team,

780
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:46,879
Speaker 1: Teams are not just willing to play these open type

781
00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: matches against them anymore.

782
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 2: Now.

783
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: Teams are saying, nah, you're gonna have to come to

784
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 1: you're going to break down this low block.

785
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 2: We just saw it.

786
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 1: You know. Obviously they won two matches against Southampton in

787
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: the EFL Cup, but the last time they're out in

788
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 1: the Premier League they drew Crystal Palace zero zero. You

789
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: could say, oh, they're unlucky. They did create one point

790
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: two expected goals that was off of sixteen shots and

791
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,439
Speaker 1: only two of their shots registered next year rating over

792
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,840
Speaker 1: point ten. And now they're gonna be without Alexander e

793
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,360
Speaker 1: shoch Bruno. Gie Marice got a red card in THEFL

794
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: Cup today, so he's not gonna be in this match.

795
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,240
Speaker 1: So now your best striker and your best ball progressor

796
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,359
Speaker 1: are not going to be available. Trying to break down

797
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 1: a top five defense in the Premier League. And west

798
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: Ham has been above average at playing through pressure. And

799
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 1: one thing that's out that Newcastle why they've been so

800
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 1: good is they essentially force you to play the ball

801
00:39:33,239 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 1: out wide and then they set these pressing traps on

802
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: the side of the pitch. They win the ball back

803
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 1: and they get it going forward. Like already mentioned, like

804
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:41,600
Speaker 1: west Ham's not really going to fall into that type

805
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: of trap, and they are pretty good at playing through pressure.

806
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: And they also have the second highest direct speed in the

807
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,399
Speaker 1: Premier League, which shows how good and capable they are

808
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: on the counter. And since September first, I mean west

809
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 1: Ham's created at least one expected goal in all but

810
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 1: two matches. So the offense is there, the offense is

811
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 1: due for positive regression, and this is the spot so

812
00:40:02,920 --> 00:40:05,560
Speaker 1: especially you know, obviously you're getting Newcastle on short rest

813
00:40:05,600 --> 00:40:08,399
Speaker 1: as well having to play Southampton NFL Cup.

814
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:09,919
Speaker 2: So I agree with you guys.

815
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 1: It's it's David Moyst's west Ham plus a half at

816
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: plus one thirty five. I do like the plus one,

817
00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 1: but I'm gonna need minus one ten or minus one

818
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,359
Speaker 1: of five to play that. Son said, I'm just gonna

819
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:22,799
Speaker 1: chase a bigger price on west Ham plus a half

820
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: at plus one thirty five.

821
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean minus one twenty one twenty five right

822
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 3: now on the plus one. I love it. It's one of

823
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 3: my favorite spots of the year, to be honest, in

824
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 3: terms of like the situation. You have a desperate west

825
00:40:33,840 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: Ham team trying to fend off relegation. On the other side,

826
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: I mean, it's not just that they played in the

827
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,240
Speaker 3: EFL Cup BJ they won and are going to Wembley

828
00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 3: the club hasn't been to a cup finals since nineteen ninety.

829
00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 2: Nine, and they're gonna win that too.

830
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 3: They might well see, I know they're playing United, so

831
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 3: you're gonna be Anny Newcastle. But we'll see. So that's

832
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 3: next month. We'll talk about it then. But I mean

833
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 3: that's a huge, a huge win. And now you're at

834
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 3: home against a lower level team when you're kind of

835
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:05,399
Speaker 3: sitting pretty like feeling good about top four chances right now.

836
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 3: I think this is a classic letdown spot. You mentioned

837
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: dimars being out.

838
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 2: That is huge.

839
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 3: I mean, he's their best ball progressior, best ball winner,

840
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 3: like he does everything. He's such a good player. We

841
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 3: talked about that the minute they signed him. We're like, oh,

842
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 3: that's a hell of a bargain for Bruno Gime Race

843
00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 3: when everybody in the world needs a midfielder and this

844
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 3: guy was just sitting there for pretty cheap. But yeah,

845
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 3: I mean west Ham catching a goal here, you talked

846
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,720
Speaker 3: about it. Imagine saying at the beginning of the season

847
00:41:29,719 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 3: that Newcastle would be laying a goal at west Ham.

848
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 3: Also imagine saying that when Arsenal laid a goal to

849
00:41:35,520 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 3: west Ham on Boxing Day that hey, newcast is going

850
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 3: to lay the same number, you know, like a month later.

851
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: It's a lot of helium in this market for Newcastle

852
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,400
Speaker 3: and like they're very good, they're very impressive. But the

853
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 3: question is, and it's kind of funny you said that too,

854
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 3: because what happened last year with west Ham. They played

855
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 3: really well at the beginning of the season and then

856
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,680
Speaker 3: teams started treating them like they were like a respected

857
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 3: top seven team, and then that's when they started to

858
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 3: regress back toward being just like a mid table team.

859
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 3: I don't think Newcastle will go that low because their

860
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 3: their talents better, they have better players, but like I

861
00:42:09,760 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: think you're gonna see a little bit of regression and

862
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: you already started to see it. So yeah, west Ham

863
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 3: plus one, I love it. My favorite spot of the

864
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 3: weekend in terms of sides.

865
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 4: Just an absolute party at twelve thirty on Saturday, West

866
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 4: Ham at Same James As part let's close up the

867
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 4: Premier League with a weird one. Forrest is plus one

868
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 4: sixty two, Leeds United plus one seventy and the draws

869
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 4: plus two forty Forest is home. Forrest is two two

870
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 4: to one win draw loss in their last five since

871
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:47,640
Speaker 4: the World Cup. Even gold differential five to five against,

872
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 4: and the expected goals numbers kind of suggest that is

873
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 4: fair six just about six expected goals four and just

874
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 4: under seven against, so really nothing wonky going on. Meanwhile,

875
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 4: Leads Anthony, you said Jesse Marsh, you call him the

876
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 4: huge genius. The big genius, that's what you call him.

877
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 4: He's got to sort out his defense. Ten expected goal

878
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,920
Speaker 4: is allowed in their last five. They have no wins

879
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 4: in their last five. They're lucky to only have allowed

880
00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 4: seven goals against. Doesn't look too good for Jesse, even

881
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 4: though he keeps buying all these Americans. BJ Let just

882
00:43:28,200 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 4: skip Anthony here because I don't want I don't want

883
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:34,520
Speaker 4: him to flood flood the marketplace with all this Marsh hysteria.

884
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 4: What say you here?

885
00:43:37,000 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 1: Well, anybody's listening to this podcast knows I'm the biggest

886
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,440
Speaker 1: fan of Jesse Marsh of the three of us, so

887
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:46,759
Speaker 1: I love Leeds pick minus one O five. This is

888
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: just a really bad spot for Nottingham for US. Like, yes,

889
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:52,080
Speaker 1: I get that they have played much better at home

890
00:43:52,120 --> 00:43:55,160
Speaker 1: than they have on the road, but now I know

891
00:43:55,200 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: they've signed twenty nine players, but injuries are starting to

892
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: take the toll.

893
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: So now for this match, going to be.

894
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,800
Speaker 1: Without Allen Awe, They're gonna be without Morgan Gives White,

895
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:06,799
Speaker 1: Ryan Yates and Dean Henderson. Allen Ali, Morgan, Gives White

896
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:09,600
Speaker 1: and Ryan Yates are three of Nottingham Forests top four

897
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 1: in shots per ninety Gibbs, White and Yates are both

898
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 1: top five in progressive passes and dribbles, which Nottingam Force

899
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: is dead last in the Premier League get and most importantly,

900
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:19,879
Speaker 1: Allen all and Gives White are two of the three

901
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest players that.

902
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 2: Haven't expected goal plus and expected to sis.

903
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: Per ninety minute rate above point three, Brendan Johnson being

904
00:44:26,920 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: the only other one. Leeds has improved since the World

905
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: Cup break if you take away matches against City, Tottenham

906
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: and Newcastle like they have a plus one point five

907
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: expected goldenfronial against west Ham Villa and Bedford. This is

908
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 1: a good matchup for them also because Forrest is quite

909
00:44:42,320 --> 00:44:45,120
Speaker 1: terrible at playing through pressure. There seventeenth in offensive pass

910
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 1: per defensive action like I already mentioned dead last and

911
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 1: progressive pass and dribbles. On the flip side, Leeds really

912
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: tends to struggle when they have to play teams that

913
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: can counterpress them effectively.

914
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 2: Nodding. Forrest is not going to do that.

915
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 1: They're second to last and opponent build up completion percentage

916
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 1: dead last and passes per defensive action and the leads

917
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,840
Speaker 1: offense is starting to get healthy.

918
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 2: Sinisterre and Bamford.

919
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,279
Speaker 1: Have been out for a while, they're finally back. Each

920
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 1: of them played a little over five nineties this season,

921
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,400
Speaker 1: both of over a point three x she plus expect

922
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:19,240
Speaker 1: This ninety minute rate leads overall for the season. Without

923
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 1: those two fully healthy for majority of their matches, still

924
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:25,839
Speaker 1: about one point two seven non penalty expected goals per

925
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:28,719
Speaker 1: ninety that's eighth in the Premier League, tenth most big

926
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,520
Speaker 1: scoring chances eighth, and touches in the penalty area, while

927
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,760
Speaker 1: Notingham Forrest defensively has conceded the third most big scoring

928
00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 1: chances and is dead last touch in touches allowed in

929
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,360
Speaker 1: their penalty area. And I don't know if Kaylor Novice

930
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 1: is going to be registered in time to play for

931
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:45,319
Speaker 1: this one. If not, it's gonna be Wayne Henessy in goal.

932
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 1: So that's another bad, real bad thing that's gonna happen

933
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:52,839
Speaker 1: for not Eam for us here. So I think this

934
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: is a good spot for Leeds. I like them drown

935
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: no Bett minus one oh five and I need the

936
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: Wonder Goal listeners to do so some thing for me.

937
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 1: If Niam Forrest wins this match, or if they are

938
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,080
Speaker 1: winning this match, I need you to tweet at me

939
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: and tell me how big of an idiot I am.

940
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 2: I need I.

941
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 1: Need to see it because it will cause me to

942
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 1: never bet this Leeds team again because of how bad

943
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,479
Speaker 1: Jesse Marshas is a manager. So please, If they're winning,

944
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 1: I don't want praise, but if they're losing, I really

945
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: would like people to tell me how big of an

946
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:20,839
Speaker 1: idiot I am.

947
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 3: You won't be hearing from me, that's for damn sure,

948
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 3: I won't. I think Leads made an interesting signing at

949
00:46:26,200 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 3: the transfer deadline. It kind of flew under the radar.

950
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 3: I don't know if you guys heard, but they signed

951
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 3: a defender, crazy Wilbur from from Salzburg. And look the

952
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 3: early reports out of the Leads people that I follow

953
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 3: on Twitter the very they're very high on him. No

954
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 3: they're they're pretty on marsh but they really think that's

955
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 3: a big upgrade. Wilber Maximilian the Austrian we.

956
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,799
Speaker 1: Sold Loriente, so he's got a play.

957
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:56,680
Speaker 3: Right, he will play, yeah, and they have everybody kind

958
00:46:56,680 --> 00:46:58,359
Speaker 3: of getting healthy, like you said, So I'm a little

959
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,879
Speaker 3: scared because you're backing them. So now I'm like, oh boy,

960
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 3: what kind of kind of twisted world are we in here?

961
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,919
Speaker 3: I know, you know, whatever against.

962
00:47:06,880 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 1: When I first looked at this, I was like, oh,

963
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 1: Forrest at home Hammer Spot, let's go and then but yeah,

964
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: then they're also coming off short rest playing United in the.

965
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 3: Cup, so it gives White is a huge loss. I

966
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 3: read about that in the preview Wednesday, like this attack

967
00:47:18,960 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 3: just like Jesse Linguard is like bad, and Morgan gives

968
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 3: White is like good. Jesse Linguard like actually productive and

969
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 3: leads them in progressive passes like not having him is

970
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 3: a big loss. Not having Tywo less of a loss

971
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 3: because they have more depth behind him. But still, like

972
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 3: Emmanuel Dennis, like, there's not that much to like and

973
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 3: they still kind of get ripped open defensively way too

974
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,279
Speaker 3: often for my liking. So that's where we're at. But

975
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:43,520
Speaker 3: I'll be passing here.

976
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 4: Okay, let's talk. Let's talk Bundesliga quick. I'm going to

977
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,520
Speaker 4: back home. They're plus two seventy five taking on lipstick

978
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,760
Speaker 4: charging up the table, putting some pressure on Byron. Anthony.

979
00:47:55,800 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 4: You've got some thoughts there, some bigger picture thoughts, but

980
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 4: real quick for Colin the cases it's a good defense

981
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 4: kind of like that that west Ham argument. Fifth and

982
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 4: non penalty expected goles be conceded, third and big chances

983
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 4: allowed in a fourth in penalty area touches. So they

984
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 4: should be able to have a decent chance of turning

985
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:15,799
Speaker 4: this into a bit of a rock fight against another

986
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 4: good defense in Leipsig. So I'll take a shot here

987
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 4: that Colin could get it done BJ before Anthony sets

988
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 4: up to Bundesliga. What's your favorite bet in Germany?

989
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 1: Hoffenheim team total over one and a half even money.

990
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: Hoffenheim's one of the more underrated offenses in the Bundesliga.

991
00:48:34,120 --> 00:48:37,080
Speaker 1: They're averaging one point four non penalty expected goals for

992
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: nine either top five and shots for ninety touched in

993
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 1: the penalty area expected threat. They're also averaging one point

994
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:45,240
Speaker 1: three expected goals per ninety away from home. Only Dortmann,

995
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:48,040
Speaker 1: Leipzig and Bayern have a better average away from home.

996
00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 1: They did lose Router at the deadline to Leeds, but

997
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:52,959
Speaker 1: he was third on the team and expected goals plus

998
00:48:53,040 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 1: expected assist, so it's not a catastrophic loss. And the

999
00:48:56,920 --> 00:49:00,520
Speaker 1: last time these two met they're playing both, by the way,

1000
00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: it was a complete chaotic, completely chaotic match like Bochum

1001
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 1: went up at two to zero inside the first thirteen minutes,

1002
00:49:07,840 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 1: then hoff and I had answered a minute later, went

1003
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:12,160
Speaker 1: on to win the match three to two, got off

1004
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,800
Speaker 1: twenty two shots, created two point six expected goals, and

1005
00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: then completed fifteen passes into the penalty area of Bochum.

1006
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,240
Speaker 1: I mean their bottom three and every single defensive metric.

1007
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:23,880
Speaker 1: And the reason I'm taking team total and not money

1008
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:25,720
Speaker 1: line because I am showing spelling on the money line,

1009
00:49:25,960 --> 00:49:29,239
Speaker 1: is that Hoffenheim's defense is awful, especially away from home,

1010
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:31,760
Speaker 1: and they're probably gonna be without two of their main defenders,

1011
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 1: Kevin Vogue and Robert Scoff, So I want no part

1012
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: of them on the money line if they're gonna be

1013
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 1: without two of their defenders for an already bad defense.

1014
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: So and I do project them for one point nine

1015
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 1: to two goals, so over one and a half and

1016
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 1: even money is good enough for me.

1017
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know about Bayern Munich right now. That's

1018
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 3: my thing, that's my take care.

1019
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 2: They're gonna pump PSG and like they.

1020
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:56,640
Speaker 3: Have PSG in Champions League, winning the Bundesliga is still

1021
00:49:56,680 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 3: super important, Like it's not like a PSG situation where

1022
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:01,840
Speaker 3: they don't have like the only other goal is like

1023
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 3: the Champions League. But they have flaws. And you know,

1024
00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:07,840
Speaker 3: I catched a Byron first half and I felt incredibly

1025
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 3: lucky to do so on Saturday, Like they just I

1026
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 3: watched the first half, they were not creating the you

1027
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,319
Speaker 3: know at home against like we know as a frank

1028
00:50:16,400 --> 00:50:19,960
Speaker 3: Like Chaca played a better first half against Frankfurt than

1029
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 3: Byron did. I watched both matches, like it was pretty striking,

1030
00:50:23,560 --> 00:50:26,919
Speaker 3: and you know, it is interesting what navelsmen did today

1031
00:50:26,920 --> 00:50:30,560
Speaker 3: against Mines, like you played Mucila and sone centrally and

1032
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:33,439
Speaker 3: then kind of created through the middle more. But they're

1033
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 3: just like not getting great production from chupomoting. He scored

1034
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:39,720
Speaker 3: again today, but like they're not getting Bayern level production

1035
00:50:39,800 --> 00:50:42,760
Speaker 3: from him, and this Leipzig squad is kind of cooking

1036
00:50:42,800 --> 00:50:45,839
Speaker 3: with gas like they are playing elite stuff right now.

1037
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:50,839
Speaker 3: Dominated Shaka played even with Byron, really shut their attack down,

1038
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:55,120
Speaker 3: looking at solid defensive vida as they have beat Hoffenheim

1039
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 3: pretty comfortably in the league or in the in the

1040
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:59,919
Speaker 3: pocal today, like it's ten to one.

1041
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:01,320
Speaker 2: You can find out there.

1042
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 3: It is really interesting to me. I I'm gonna think

1043
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 3: about it some more over the weekend. I think Byron

1044
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 3: should roll this weekend against a pretty overrated Wolfsburg. But

1045
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 3: like if if Byron shows me another tick like that,

1046
00:51:13,560 --> 00:51:15,759
Speaker 3: there's just something that's not clicking with this team, and

1047
00:51:16,000 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 3: Noglesman's a good manager. I took to figure it out.

1048
00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 3: But if you go to just the day Rosa got

1049
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 3: hirged to now extally difference per ninety, like Byron's like

1050
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 3: two ticks better. It's like plus point one four to

1051
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 3: plus point one two. So like Leipzig is playing close

1052
00:51:31,239 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 3: to the level they're live in their Champions League matchup

1053
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 3: two against City.

1054
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:36,840
Speaker 2: I think.

1055
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:40,920
Speaker 3: So it's gonna be really fascinating to see how this

1056
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 3: this race goes. But I think, I mean, it's only

1057
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 3: two points. Union is technically one point behind, but they suck.

1058
00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:48,240
Speaker 3: So it's really just you know, you have Dortmund sitting

1059
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 3: twenty to one, three points behind. They're inconsistent, but the

1060
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 3: ceilings probably higher for Dortmund. But the set piece stuff

1061
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 3: just kills them every year, so it is interesting. It's

1062
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 3: a fascinating race. Going to have Eric on to talk

1063
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:04,279
Speaker 3: about it next week, we're very excited to talk about that.

1064
00:52:04,320 --> 00:52:05,960
Speaker 3: He knows the Ons League at better than anybody, and

1065
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:09,760
Speaker 3: you know, everybody hating Leipzig and whatnot, but this feels

1066
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:13,319
Speaker 3: like the most gettable buyer's ever been because they just

1067
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:17,160
Speaker 3: don't have the death machine Lewandowski just murdering twenty five

1068
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 3: thirty goals in half a season anymore, and like not

1069
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 3: having him, but you know, Chu Pomoting is just not

1070
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,400
Speaker 3: on the level. And mannis still injured. We don't know

1071
00:52:25,400 --> 00:52:27,359
Speaker 3: when he's coming back, so there's holes here.

1072
00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 1: Also, if the listeners want to join in, we've all

1073
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 1: bet Leipzig one hundred to one to win the Champions

1074
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,279
Speaker 1: League as well, without.

1075
00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 3: I actually haven't bet it yet.

1076
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:36,799
Speaker 2: I should, Well you should better right now.

1077
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 3: Then I was too busy betting Roma to.

1078
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:43,479
Speaker 1: Bet Leipzig because after Tottenham twenty three to one, yeah,

1079
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:45,759
Speaker 1: Roman twenty three to one. And if anybody finds this

1080
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: associated at twenty one to the Europa League, please alert

1081
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 1: me because I really want to bet.

1082
00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 3: That they're like thirteen everywhere. I know, I know, I

1083
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:54,560
Speaker 3: think they're the next team too though, Like.

1084
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 1: I know, I found a seventeen, but I'm waiting. I

1085
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:58,560
Speaker 1: just I need, I need to find it twenty.

1086
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 4: Speaking ofssociated, let's move to La Liga please, or for Anthony,

1087
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 4: what do you got?

1088
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: Yeah? Thursday afternoon, Valencia goes to the bernabout to take

1089
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 3: on Real Madrid. They just fired Genera Gatuso, a classic

1090
00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:20,840
Speaker 3: example of like manager is managing the team perfectly fine.

1091
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 3: Team plays like perfectly fine, but has shit variants. You're

1092
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 3: sitting one point above the relegation zone despite having like

1093
00:53:30,120 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 3: a positive plus point two actually difference per ninety. You

1094
00:53:32,960 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 3: fire the manager. The market steamed against Valencia over the week.

1095
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 3: I'm not seeing it. It's now plus one and a half.

1096
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 3: Real Madrid is a very good team. They just played

1097
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 3: Valencia two weeks ago at a neutral site and it

1098
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,680
Speaker 3: was shots were sixteen to twelve, crosses and box entries

1099
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 3: were basically even, Like, it was a very competitive match

1100
00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 3: in this Valencia defense number one, like, they're like the

1101
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 3: top five defense by a lot of metrics, so it's

1102
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,319
Speaker 3: a legitimately difficult team to break down. You could get

1103
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,960
Speaker 3: a classic new manager bound situation here. Give me Valencia

1104
00:54:06,960 --> 00:54:10,360
Speaker 3: plus more and a half at the Bernabau. Real Madrid's

1105
00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 3: running out of time. Bars is gonna kind of run

1106
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 3: with the league here.

1107
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:17,080
Speaker 4: At this rate, we'll see j hit us with it.

1108
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:19,960
Speaker 2: You know, you know, Michael, I was going through the

1109
00:54:19,960 --> 00:54:20,719
Speaker 2: Loli card.

1110
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:23,640
Speaker 1: There are some spots I like, you know, you have

1111
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 1: my Orc on the island hosting Real Madrid, big hammer spot.

1112
00:54:28,000 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: I even like it's high priced. I like for Veril

1113
00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:33,279
Speaker 1: on the road against LJA. I even think there's some

1114
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,800
Speaker 1: value on a Barcelona Real associate d parlay moneyline parlay.

1115
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:41,280
Speaker 1: But I need to give our listeners what they want,

1116
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 1: and what they want is a insanely high priced Both

1117
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 1: teams to score no and for that we got to

1118
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 1: go to the Basque country on a Friday afternoon at

1119
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:53,879
Speaker 1: three pm Eastern time, bill Bao hosting Cadiz. Both teams

1120
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:57,640
Speaker 1: to score no. Minus one fifty five. Cadiz is one

1121
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 1: of the worst offenses, not only in Spain across Europe.

1122
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 1: We are nineteen matches into the season. They are averaging

1123
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 1: just point seven to eight non penalty expected goals for match.

1124
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 2: They are dead lass and.

1125
00:55:07,680 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 1: Touches in the penalty area, passes completed in the penalty

1126
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: area and progressive passes and dribbles along with the expected threat.

1127
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 1: So now they're supposed to take that on the road

1128
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 1: and break down one of the best defenses in all

1129
00:55:22,400 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 1: of Europe.

1130
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:24,319
Speaker 2: I don't think so.

1131
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 1: Bill Boo is allowing point seven to one non penalty

1132
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,720
Speaker 1: expected goals for ninety that's the best mark in La Liga.

1133
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:33,720
Speaker 1: Only Barcelona or Real Madrid and Soci Dad have created

1134
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:35,719
Speaker 1: over one expected goal against them this season. All the

1135
00:55:35,760 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 1: other sixteen matches they they've only conceded under one expected

1136
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 1: goal and one of those matches was against Kadiz on

1137
00:55:43,360 --> 00:55:45,839
Speaker 1: August twenty ninth, and it was a bloodbath. Bill Bow

1138
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:49,560
Speaker 1: won four nothing. Cadiz created just zero point four expected goals.

1139
00:55:49,880 --> 00:55:52,440
Speaker 1: They had six touches in the penalty area, completed just

1140
00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:55,279
Speaker 1: three passes in the penalty area, took nine shots. Only

1141
00:55:55,280 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 1: one of those shots came in the penalty area. Kadiz

1142
00:55:57,280 --> 00:55:59,400
Speaker 1: away from home only five point seven expected goles in

1143
00:55:59,520 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 1: nine matches. I have both teams score no projected at

1144
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 1: minus two sixteen, so I love the value minus one

1145
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 1: fifty five was gonna play Athletic Co Madrid Guitafe just

1146
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,719
Speaker 1: the classic both teams is Cornel spot, but I think

1147
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:16,240
Speaker 1: it is properly projected at minus two forty.

1148
00:56:16,800 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 3: I like both teams to score. I might just bet

1149
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 3: it out of show.

1150
00:56:19,040 --> 00:56:19,600
Speaker 2: That's insane.

1151
00:56:19,760 --> 00:56:23,400
Speaker 3: Seriously, Guitafe could just like get it into the box

1152
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 3: one time the whole match and score the goal off

1153
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:27,760
Speaker 3: of it and then bang you cash now I'm kidding.

1154
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:29,680
Speaker 3: I don't know, but I might. I might play the

1155
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:30,600
Speaker 3: over there.

1156
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:32,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a Friday afternoon, so what better way

1157
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:34,880
Speaker 1: to spend your Friday afternoon than the best country just

1158
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:36,560
Speaker 1: watching these two teams pass the ball round?

1159
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:41,719
Speaker 4: Uh, Siria dj ed, I don't know how you're gonna

1160
00:56:41,719 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 4: be able to follow that one up.

1161
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna fade Lazio.

1162
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 1: Verona hosting Lazio on Monday at twelve thirty pm Eastern Time.

1163
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: I mean, Verona has been playing much better than they

1164
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,320
Speaker 1: were at the beginning of the season. They did concede

1165
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 1: one point eight expected goals an essay on Monday, but

1166
00:56:57,280 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 1: that was the first time they've allowed over one expected

1167
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 1: goal since we came back from the World Cup break

1168
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:06,279
Speaker 1: for the season. Verona's metrics are pretty bad, but offensively,

1169
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:08,960
Speaker 1: they create a lot of their chances via crosses and

1170
00:57:09,040 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 1: set pieces. They've completed the fourth most crosses into the

1171
00:57:11,640 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 1: penalty area their top five and next yeper set piece

1172
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 1: Lazio second to last in Syria and allowing crosses into

1173
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 1: the penalty area. They are also Verona's also one of

1174
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:22,919
Speaker 1: the more is the most direct team pretty much in

1175
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: all of Europe. Like they have the fastest rec speed

1176
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 1: in Syria. A Lazio. I mean, I feel like a

1177
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 1: broken record right now. We just keep saying it over

1178
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 1: and over. I mean, we're at a plus twenty actual

1179
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 1: goal differential that's second in Syria behind Napoli. They're at

1180
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 1: a plus four point nine expected goal differential. They have

1181
00:57:40,200 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 1: scored thirty six goals off twenty six point seven expected

1182
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 1: And guess what, it's not because of Serra Mobley, who's

1183
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 1: actually going to be back for this match. He's scored

1184
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 1: seven goals off of six point nine expected. It's just

1185
00:57:50,880 --> 00:57:53,120
Speaker 1: I think it's just perpetual throughout their entire squad of

1186
00:57:53,160 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: just to completely overperform and finish at just ridiculous rates.

1187
00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 1: And so this is just another good spot for a

1188
00:58:01,920 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 1: Verona team that has due for some positive aggression minus

1189
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 1: thirteen actual goal differentially A minus six point nine expect

1190
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 1: goal differential going up against the Loatzio team that is

1191
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:15,040
Speaker 1: due for some negative regression. Plus I mean Lasio won

1192
00:58:15,080 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: the reverse specture to nothing. They did nothing up until

1193
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 1: their sixty eighth minute goal from a Mobili inside the

1194
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 1: six yard box. So a good spot here for Verona

1195
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:25,920
Speaker 1: at home Latsio on short rest playing Vents in Coptally

1196
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 1: on Thursday. So give me Verona plus half a goal

1197
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,959
Speaker 1: at minus one fifteen, Anthony, you had anything.

1198
00:58:32,400 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, at Atalanta's in a tricky spot going on the

1199
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:40,600
Speaker 3: road to Soisuolo, and they have played better since the

1200
00:58:40,600 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 3: World Cup break, but they've also, I mean they have

1201
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 3: been pounding in goals left and right since the World

1202
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 3: Cup break. They have now scored twenty two goals in

1203
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 3: seven matches, and including the eight they put up on Surnitana,

1204
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:01,000
Speaker 3: the three they put up on Juventus, the five against Petsia,

1205
00:59:01,760 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 3: and then they did get blanked against Inter Like you

1206
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 3: look at this attack and like there are some fun pieces,

1207
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 3: but this is not old at Toalanta anymore. And so

1208
00:59:09,760 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 3: swallow did just have their biggest win of the season.

1209
00:59:12,800 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 3: So you know, you don't love that. They just they

1210
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 3: just thrashed Milan, but so Swallow at home this year

1211
00:59:19,080 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 3: has been an average team. Atalanta away from home has

1212
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:27,800
Speaker 3: been also like a pretty average serial team. So I

1213
00:59:27,840 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 3: can't get to the half goal here. I'm only like

1214
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: a quarter. So Swallow is like a classic example of

1215
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:36,080
Speaker 3: a team that ran out of money and had to

1216
00:59:36,120 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 3: sell some talented players, but like the underlying core of

1217
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:41,760
Speaker 3: the team is still fine. It's like a common thing

1218
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:43,720
Speaker 3: and for a couple of these teams in Italy because

1219
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:45,760
Speaker 3: of what's going on. But yeah, so Swallow plus a

1220
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 3: half at home, they're sitting in sixteenth with like an

1221
00:59:48,360 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 3: average underlying numbers. I think this is a good bilo

1222
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: on them.

1223
00:59:54,280 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 4: You have a bit of a special bet for us

1224
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,320
Speaker 4: here in legal Anthony.

1225
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't take total credit for originating it. I

1226
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:05,840
Speaker 3: got a couple of texts today about Marseille to win

1227
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,680
Speaker 3: Ligan No, and I was like, why why are people

1228
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:09,840
Speaker 3: asking me about Marseille.

1229
01:00:10,360 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 2: No, don't do this, don't do well.

1230
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 3: Here's the thing. I know what we've said about Marseille

1231
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:19,680
Speaker 3: on this podcast over the last year and since we

1232
01:00:19,720 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 3: started this podcast. This is one hundredth episode of Wonder Goal.

1233
01:00:22,160 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 3: I think we've mentioned how we're not really fond of

1234
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 3: Marseille on like twenty of them, probably pretty much every

1235
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:33,520
Speaker 3: time we've had the chance. But like PSG is kind

1236
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,280
Speaker 3: of stuck in the mud here and they just keep

1237
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,919
Speaker 3: losing guys to injury, and I wonder does that start

1238
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:42,360
Speaker 3: to catch up with them? Do we catch like PSG napping?

1239
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:46,320
Speaker 3: Jay Croucher said it on his show today that he

1240
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:50,680
Speaker 3: took some Marseille and made convincing case for it, and

1241
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 3: I was kind of inspired. So I got a few

1242
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 3: of my buddies to join me and we're all going

1243
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,479
Speaker 3: to ride. Marseille. Twenty eight to one is out there

1244
01:00:57,560 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 3: to win Legane. They are five points back, like they're

1245
01:01:01,680 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 3: underlying numbers, like, yes, they've been fortunate. They were fortunate

1246
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:06,160
Speaker 3: again today they got like an own gold gift to

1247
01:01:06,240 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 3: beat not away.

1248
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:09,320
Speaker 2: From home, but again.

1249
01:01:10,000 --> 01:01:11,400
Speaker 3: But they were the better side in the end. But

1250
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:15,520
Speaker 3: here's the thing. They just signed Onnahi, the Moroccan midfielder

1251
01:01:16,160 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 3: who I'm very fond of and think is a significant upgrade.

1252
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 3: Russelin Malinowski is now on loan at the club and

1253
01:01:22,120 --> 01:01:26,760
Speaker 3: has already made a significant production all progression like these

1254
01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 3: are good death pieces and good additions to their first eleven.

1255
01:01:31,320 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 3: Payett is still giving decent production too, and you know

1256
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:36,160
Speaker 3: he's going to always finish above XG. So like that

1257
01:01:36,280 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 3: factors in Harid has been solid, Like there are pieces

1258
01:01:40,440 --> 01:01:42,960
Speaker 3: here for them to go on a little bit of

1259
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 3: a run if PSG's napping, and it really is more

1260
01:01:45,080 --> 01:01:48,600
Speaker 3: of a bet against PSG. I mean PSG and Boppe

1261
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:52,640
Speaker 3: went off today, Neymar's out Ramos went off injured today.

1262
01:01:52,920 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 3: They have not been good since coming back from the

1263
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 3: World Cup at all. They lost the Lens, Drew Reims,

1264
01:01:59,280 --> 01:02:03,280
Speaker 3: Drew Beach Trousburg very fortunately. Like they have not been good.

1265
01:02:04,040 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 3: You know, if they prioritize Champions League, which they might

1266
01:02:06,120 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 3: not be in for very long, there's a world where

1267
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:10,200
Speaker 3: they slip here and at twenty eight to one, it's

1268
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:12,720
Speaker 3: worth a flyer on Marseille. So I'm gonna I'm gonna

1269
01:02:12,960 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 3: join Jay. He was the originator of this. I have

1270
01:02:15,040 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 3: to give him credit. Jay Croucher follow on Twitter, good,

1271
01:02:18,080 --> 01:02:23,400
Speaker 3: good follow. But I'm gonna ride with everybody on Marseille,

1272
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,439
Speaker 3: and we're gonna start a new segment once a week.

1273
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,480
Speaker 3: We're gonna somebody's gonna come on and give a future.

1274
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,439
Speaker 3: They were like thinking about eyeing up for the rest

1275
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 3: of the season, something fun for Maybe we'll do it

1276
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 3: for a couple of months. I gotta see what we

1277
01:02:36,040 --> 01:02:36,480
Speaker 3: getting up.

1278
01:02:36,520 --> 01:02:38,120
Speaker 1: I gotta I gotta tell a story because I can't

1279
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:40,439
Speaker 1: give out this future now because it's it's probably gonna

1280
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 1: be too short. But to two nights ago, I was just,

1281
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,480
Speaker 1: you know, one in the morning, working about to go

1282
01:02:46,520 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 1: to bed, just searching, you know, scrolling looking at the future,

1283
01:02:49,400 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 1: trying to find something. I was looking In France South

1284
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 1: Florian ballagoon arsenal Loney potentially US men's national team striker

1285
01:02:56,520 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 1: of the future. He's two goals behind in babe because

1286
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 1: he's got eleven goals. His XG is pretty close to

1287
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:05,280
Speaker 1: what it is like he's a top six or seven guy,

1288
01:03:05,280 --> 01:03:06,120
Speaker 1: and shots.

1289
01:03:05,760 --> 01:03:08,400
Speaker 2: Per ninety he was sixty five to one.

1290
01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 1: So I was just like, all right, whatever, and I

1291
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 1: posted on my Twitter so you can see it earlier

1292
01:03:13,760 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 1: today so everybody can see it. And he scored a

1293
01:03:17,240 --> 01:03:21,080
Speaker 1: hat trick on Wednesday against Lorient and Mbape missed two

1294
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: penalties and went off with a hamstring injury.

1295
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:24,360
Speaker 2: And now Neymars hurt too.

1296
01:03:24,600 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 1: So I'm on my way to my local uh, after

1297
01:03:27,880 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: this podcast is over, on my way to my local

1298
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 1: Casey's General store here in Beautiful Iowa to get myself

1299
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:35,560
Speaker 1: a nice lottery ticket and then I can say cyon

1300
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:36,480
Speaker 1: art of this podcast.

1301
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 2: Just kidding. I don't care how much money I ever

1302
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 2: went in the lottery. I'll always be doing this podcast.

1303
01:03:41,280 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 4: What about a legal bet for us if you're gonna.

1304
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:45,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, how about.

1305
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:51,320
Speaker 1: How about Montpellier Strasburg two of the worst defenses in France.

1306
01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:54,840
Speaker 1: Montpillier is allowing one point seven expectacles per ninety that's

1307
01:03:55,200 --> 01:03:58,720
Speaker 1: eighteenth only word. Only two teams are worse. Well, one

1308
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: of them is Strasburg one point eight five XGP for ninety.

1309
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 1: I don't really know what happened to them. I mean

1310
01:04:05,880 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 1: Montpelier just got completely dismantled by PSG today. I know

1311
01:04:10,120 --> 01:04:13,920
Speaker 1: as Strasbourg isn't PSG, but I mean they PSG created

1312
01:04:14,040 --> 01:04:16,960
Speaker 1: three and a half expected goals to that was with

1313
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:22,160
Speaker 1: two goals getting barred off. Montpellier is just not providing

1314
01:04:22,280 --> 01:04:25,320
Speaker 1: much resistance like their dead last and pass per defensive action.

1315
01:04:25,880 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 1: Strasbourg really really bad and transition defense. Montpelier is a

1316
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:32,720
Speaker 1: very very direct style team. Montpellier one of the worst

1317
01:04:33,200 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 1: set piece defenses in Leon as well Strasburg one of

1318
01:04:36,440 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 1: the better set piece offenses. So I think this total

1319
01:04:39,680 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 1: is far, far too low for how bad these two

1320
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:42,440
Speaker 1: defenses are.

1321
01:04:42,440 --> 01:04:45,200
Speaker 2: So like over two and a half goals even money great.

1322
01:04:45,240 --> 01:04:48,880
Speaker 4: We can now move on to the underdog Partlets a

1323
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:53,840
Speaker 4: doozy Anthony. Let's have you started off west Ham?

1324
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 3: You know plus five hundred. I was thinking about Wolves,

1325
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:59,120
Speaker 3: but are they ever scoring? I don't know. Nope, So

1326
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 3: I couldn't do it, So I'm gonna go with west Ham.

1327
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 3: I'm already talked about why I love the spot. Newcastle

1328
01:05:04,080 --> 01:05:06,760
Speaker 3: coming off their first Cup final appearance in twenty four years.

1329
01:05:06,800 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 3: They just clinched it on Wednesday. No geme Erase, no

1330
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 3: Esac selling high on this team that is going to

1331
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:16,160
Speaker 3: start seeing some attacking regression because they don't create a

1332
01:05:16,160 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 3: ton of big scoring chances. They rely on getting ahead

1333
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:23,480
Speaker 3: and then going ahead with more counters and you know,

1334
01:05:23,600 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 3: getting margin. It's hard to do against a west Ham

1335
01:05:26,200 --> 01:05:28,320
Speaker 3: team that is so passive and so underrated in the

1336
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:30,479
Speaker 3: market and do for positive aggression. I love west Ham

1337
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 3: five to one.

1338
01:05:32,600 --> 01:05:38,200
Speaker 4: I'm thrilled Everted Sean Ditch is Everted plus seven fifty

1339
01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:42,120
Speaker 4: home to Arsenal. Last time Arsenal came to Goodison Park,

1340
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 4: we remember what happened andros Townsend. You just got to

1341
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:49,800
Speaker 4: ride the variants. I think in the spot, it's a tricky, tricky,

1342
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:52,560
Speaker 4: tricky spot for Arsenal coming to goodis in which should

1343
01:05:52,560 --> 01:05:57,120
Speaker 4: be an electric atmosphere with the new manager team and

1344
01:05:57,200 --> 01:06:00,000
Speaker 4: the supporters trying to stave off relegation one more time.

1345
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:04,720
Speaker 4: It's going to be eleven v. Thirty five thousand at

1346
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 4: Goodison Park on Saturday morning here Stateside. But yeah, it

1347
01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 4: just comes down to the chaos that we're going to

1348
01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 4: see from Everden in their first few matches under Sean Ditsch,

1349
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:21,080
Speaker 4: who should have them playing a much more structured, solid,

1350
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 4: cohesive defensive game than what we saw from Frank Lampard.

1351
01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:27,840
Speaker 4: And like I said, a couple of times at their

1352
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:31,640
Speaker 4: best this season, Everden were playing a very defensive, rigid

1353
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:34,760
Speaker 4: style and they were getting results that way. So maybe

1354
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,800
Speaker 4: we'll see more of that against the league leaders Arsenal.

1355
01:06:38,560 --> 01:06:41,640
Speaker 4: Everyone's plus seven fifty on the money line, BJ. What

1356
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:42,080
Speaker 4: about you?

1357
01:06:42,600 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 1: Verona plus two sixty five at home against Lots who

1358
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: already mentioned a great great spot here for a positive

1359
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:53,080
Speaker 1: aggression team like Verona at home catching a negative aggression

1360
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 1: Canada like Loatzio on short rest coming off their Copa

1361
01:06:56,040 --> 01:07:00,800
Speaker 1: Italia match against Juventus on Thursday. I do project thrown

1362
01:07:00,800 --> 01:07:03,080
Speaker 1: out at plus two oh six. So do you think

1363
01:07:03,120 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 1: there's some good value on them on the money line

1364
01:07:04,760 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 1: at plus two sixty.

1365
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 4: Five one hundred and eighty five to one.

1366
01:07:08,440 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 2: Uh?

1367
01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:11,600
Speaker 4: Is that three leg parlay? If it hits, we've hit longer,

1368
01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:12,600
Speaker 4: We've hit longer.

1369
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:14,840
Speaker 2: I hang out the first.

1370
01:07:15,080 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 1: If the first two legs hit, it's gonna come down

1371
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 1: to Monday, well morning Central time at eleven thirty, but

1372
01:07:21,320 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 1: twelve thirty Eastern time, so maybe we can have a

1373
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:25,320
Speaker 1: nice sweat on a Monday.

1374
01:07:25,760 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 4: I feel better about this one than I did about

1375
01:07:27,680 --> 01:07:30,120
Speaker 4: the two hundred to one to one one that we hit,

1376
01:07:30,240 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 4: So I'm feeling pretty good.

1377
01:07:31,840 --> 01:07:34,800
Speaker 1: This party the week Arsenals are Arsenal's winning four nothing.

1378
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 4: This is dumb best bets now in the Premier League, Anthony,

1379
01:07:38,960 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 4: what do you got?

1380
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:42,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna double up on West Ham so

1381
01:07:42,040 --> 01:07:45,320
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go Tottenham Manchester City under three goals at

1382
01:07:45,360 --> 01:07:47,640
Speaker 3: minus one twenty. This is a match that was just

1383
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,840
Speaker 3: played a couple of weeks ago and there were six goals,

1384
01:07:50,280 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 3: but you know, you look some of the underline numbers

1385
01:07:51,960 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 3: and how that game played out and kind of how

1386
01:07:53,840 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 3: it got out of hand. It really was sparked by

1387
01:07:56,760 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 3: a dumb defensive era from Edison that led directly to

1388
01:07:59,920 --> 01:08:02,480
Speaker 3: an easy Tottenham goal that led to this game becoming

1389
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 3: so chaotic. City are in a bit of flux. We

1390
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:07,800
Speaker 3: talked about it earlier on the show. Just not quite

1391
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 3: getting the same number of shots, the same number of

1392
01:08:11,000 --> 01:08:15,560
Speaker 3: quality shots. Like everything's down for them. And this Tottenham attack,

1393
01:08:15,640 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 3: you know, as they incorporate poorro like they should take

1394
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:21,200
Speaker 3: steps forward, but in the interim, like they've been really

1395
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 3: bad less than one expected goal against Fulham, this attack

1396
01:08:24,280 --> 01:08:26,120
Speaker 3: has not been as good in transition. They're not getting

1397
01:08:26,120 --> 01:08:29,519
Speaker 3: the same production. They're still decently good at defending their

1398
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 3: penalty area, which is of course a big key against City.

1399
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 3: But yeah, I just can't get this to this three.

1400
01:08:34,520 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 3: I'm sitting at like two seven to five, so I

1401
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:37,439
Speaker 3: like the under three at minus one.

1402
01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:39,760
Speaker 4: Twenty, I will go to west Ham here is my

1403
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:42,439
Speaker 4: favorite bet, five to one on the money line. This

1404
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:45,599
Speaker 4: defense has just been stellar all season and they came

1405
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:47,920
Speaker 4: into this match. They come into this match ranked fourth

1406
01:08:47,960 --> 01:08:50,320
Speaker 4: in non penalty expected goals for ninety sixth and big

1407
01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:54,800
Speaker 4: chances allowed seventh and expected threat allowed. Newcastle's really good.

1408
01:08:55,200 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 4: They ranked top four and basically every offensive category. Solid defense.

1409
01:08:59,479 --> 01:09:03,240
Speaker 4: They played well home, but this defense should put up

1410
01:09:03,360 --> 01:09:08,479
Speaker 4: a pretty sturdy test against this really strong offense. And

1411
01:09:08,479 --> 01:09:10,360
Speaker 4: this is a good buying opportunity on a team that

1412
01:09:10,439 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 4: is ranked sixteenth or six sixteenth in the table. But

1413
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,479
Speaker 4: when you look at their expected points they should be around,

1414
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:19,000
Speaker 4: you know, between that eighth to tenth mid table range.

1415
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:22,920
Speaker 4: And as we've said, these David moys clubs, they know

1416
01:09:23,680 --> 01:09:27,560
Speaker 4: they usually do pull one over on a big club.

1417
01:09:29,160 --> 01:09:29,799
Speaker 2: In a season.

1418
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:31,960
Speaker 4: We saw it last year against Liverpool. It's just who

1419
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 4: David Moyes is, it's what he gets out of his clubs.

1420
01:09:34,200 --> 01:09:36,360
Speaker 4: And I think this could be the spot here. They'll

1421
01:09:36,400 --> 01:09:40,080
Speaker 4: slow down the Newcastle train and of course Newcastle, as

1422
01:09:40,080 --> 01:09:42,759
Speaker 4: we've said, short rest a little bit of a letdown spot.

1423
01:09:42,840 --> 01:09:45,840
Speaker 4: So west Ham plus five hundred that's my favorite bet

1424
01:09:46,120 --> 01:09:47,360
Speaker 4: of the week. BJ.

1425
01:09:47,520 --> 01:09:50,800
Speaker 1: What do you got Chelsea Fulham? Both teams a score

1426
01:09:50,880 --> 01:09:53,440
Speaker 1: at even money. We just saw this match on January

1427
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:56,479
Speaker 1: twelfth with Fulham winning two to one. Well in that match,

1428
01:09:56,600 --> 01:09:59,280
Speaker 1: very very important is that Chelsea did create over two

1429
01:09:59,320 --> 01:10:00,640
Speaker 1: expected goals.

1430
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:03,600
Speaker 2: And that was with playing a man down for the final.

1431
01:10:03,320 --> 01:10:06,360
Speaker 1: Thirty minutes the match with gile Felix getting the red card.

1432
01:10:06,560 --> 01:10:09,800
Speaker 1: And even more importantly is that Fulham was up without

1433
01:10:09,800 --> 01:10:12,200
Speaker 1: their main man Alexander Mitchovich for that match. He is

1434
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:15,360
Speaker 1: so so important to their attack, creating eleven point three

1435
01:10:15,520 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 1: of their twenty five point eight expected goals. But here's

1436
01:10:19,600 --> 01:10:21,960
Speaker 1: the thing is that Chelsea's offense it has to improve.

1437
01:10:21,960 --> 01:10:23,800
Speaker 1: They've been really, really bad. They're in the bottom half

1438
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:26,200
Speaker 1: of the Premier League table and expected goals, but their

1439
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:29,280
Speaker 1: last three matches they have created over five expected goals.

1440
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:32,120
Speaker 1: Adding adding guys like Mudrik is only going to help

1441
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:36,080
Speaker 1: and improve their attack. And listen, in the extreme short term,

1442
01:10:36,120 --> 01:10:39,040
Speaker 1: I know Chelsea just signed Enzo Fernandez for a record deal.

1443
01:10:39,200 --> 01:10:40,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's going to play in this match,

1444
01:10:41,280 --> 01:10:44,320
Speaker 1: but they just sold Reginia to Arsenal Zacharia is out,

1445
01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:46,720
Speaker 1: so that means going to be Connor, Gallagher and Kovacic

1446
01:10:46,800 --> 01:10:49,240
Speaker 1: in the midfield, and also Reach James and Ben Chilo

1447
01:10:49,479 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 1: are still out. And if you look at how Fulham

1448
01:10:51,479 --> 01:10:53,680
Speaker 1: is creating a lot of their attacks. It's basically all

1449
01:10:53,720 --> 01:10:55,400
Speaker 1: off of crosses. They were able to get the ball

1450
01:10:55,439 --> 01:10:57,559
Speaker 1: into wide areas against Chelsea and that's how they scored

1451
01:10:57,880 --> 01:11:00,839
Speaker 1: their second goal. Well, now that they have Alexander Mitrovich

1452
01:11:00,920 --> 01:11:02,240
Speaker 1: there their main man to get on the end of

1453
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:04,840
Speaker 1: those those crosses, they should be able to put the

1454
01:11:04,840 --> 01:11:05,679
Speaker 1: ball in the back net.

1455
01:11:05,560 --> 01:11:06,160
Speaker 2: At least once.

1456
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:08,800
Speaker 1: And Papa has been running very, very hot in goal

1457
01:11:08,840 --> 01:11:10,720
Speaker 1: for Chelsea with a plus six point eight post sha

1458
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:13,639
Speaker 1: actually plus minus, and as history is shown with him,

1459
01:11:13,960 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 1: he's bound to regress at some point towards the means.

1460
01:11:16,320 --> 01:11:18,639
Speaker 1: So I think this is a good spot for two

1461
01:11:18,640 --> 01:11:21,320
Speaker 1: teams that we just saw both score to do it

1462
01:11:21,360 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 1: again at even money.

1463
01:11:23,000 --> 01:11:25,240
Speaker 4: All right, that does it for this our one hundredth

1464
01:11:25,280 --> 01:11:28,439
Speaker 4: episode of Wonder Goal. To everyone who's listened on this

1465
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:30,919
Speaker 4: journey with thank you, and we are holding a contest.

1466
01:11:31,000 --> 01:11:36,439
Speaker 4: The gift will be revealed in our next episode. But

1467
01:11:36,640 --> 01:11:40,439
Speaker 4: the way you enter is by tweeting at Chad Milman

1468
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:45,720
Speaker 4: wishing him congratulations on one hundred episodes of Wonder Goal.

1469
01:11:45,760 --> 01:11:49,960
Speaker 4: His email excuse me, his Twitter count is at Chad

1470
01:11:49,960 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 4: Milman and just put the hashtag wonder goal in there

1471
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:55,720
Speaker 4: and we'll be able to find you and enter you

1472
01:11:55,840 --> 01:11:59,599
Speaker 4: in to the contest for Anthony Dubundo and b J Cunningham.

1473
01:11:59,640 --> 01:12:03,200
Speaker 4: Michael wish you best of luck with all your bets

1474
01:12:03,200 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 4: this weekend and we'll see you next week.

1475
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:20,600
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1476
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1477
01:12:23,439 --> 01:12:26,559
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler