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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: It's the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 1: What's up, Degenerate Nation, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is the College Football Ball Betting Preview, Part four.

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Speaker 1: I'm stuck in with me as always as Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 1: I'm ready to argue over this college World Championship line.

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Speaker 1: And but it's set, we have, and we're gonna go

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Speaker 1: over the games quickly, and then we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to a ton of bowls, bowls all through New Year's Eve,

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Speaker 1: New Year's Day. We're going to get to a lot.

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Speaker 1: But we're also going to talk, you know, just like

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Speaker 1: we touch on the College Football National Championship opening line,

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Speaker 1: which is in like I don't know, thirty days or something.

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Speaker 1: We'll recap yesterday's games too, So let's let's start there. Well,

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Speaker 1: first of all, what's going on, Colin, and how was

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Speaker 1: your weekend.

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Speaker 2: Everything's going great weekend wise, So spending some time with

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Speaker 2: family out of state and Phoenix, enjoying some time with

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Speaker 2: some family. You know, listen, I know that you and

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Speaker 2: I are going to get it our I saw your

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Speaker 2: tweet yesterday about you and I get to argue about

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Speaker 2: the college football playoff, and I don't know how you

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Speaker 2: make a case for anybody to go up against LSU.

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Speaker 2: Right now, they the domination, Like Vanderbilt played LSU better

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Speaker 2: than Oklahoma did. I mean, seven hundred total yards is insane?

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Speaker 2: So right now the number is absolutely insane. Is the

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Speaker 2: problem is, is are we not adjusting power ratings at

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Speaker 2: some warp speed star wars space, you know, pace that

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Speaker 2: we've never had before. Can we not catch up with

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Speaker 2: what this LSU team has been since the old Miss game?

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Speaker 2: Or is it that you know? Yeah, and maybe maybe

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Speaker 2: that's what it is. And I think they proved that

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Speaker 2: with OU.

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Speaker 1: Well they proved it all year. Like honestly, they go

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Speaker 1: into Alabama and they put up forty five, and they

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Speaker 1: went the whole Miss they put up fifty eight, put

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Speaker 1: up fifty six on Arkansas, put up fifty on Texas,

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Speaker 1: A and M it covered against Florida, you know, against

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State they covered. You go back when they wanted Texas,

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Speaker 1: they put up forty five. The list goes on and

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Speaker 1: on and on, and then against Georgia in a game

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Speaker 1: we thought Georgia could compete in against a great defense.

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Speaker 1: Thirty seven to ten, We're going to over and over again.

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Speaker 1: They're just that good. I don't see how anyone could

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Speaker 1: stop them. Well, I can't bet them now. I mean

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Speaker 1: maybe I should just blindly, but I wanted a pick

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Speaker 1: so bad, and I knew I was gonna get after

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Speaker 1: what happened, so then I would in minus three so bad.

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Speaker 1: Now that's I mean, that's it's just never popped real

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Speaker 1: after And now it's out to LSU five and a half.

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Speaker 2: There's some six out there is like at the fan

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Speaker 2: Duels of the world, and some I think Draft Kings

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Speaker 2: actually popped a six and a half juice for there

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Speaker 2: for a while. But listen, Jalen Hurt's longest run was

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Speaker 2: twelve yards. Jaler Hearts had fourteen carries for forty three yards.

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Speaker 2: He was oh u's biggest weapon. He was completely shut down.

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Speaker 2: Kennedy Brook's longest rush it was eight yards. I mean, oh,

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Speaker 2: you didn't get anywhere against these guys. And this was

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Speaker 2: supposed to be one of the highest success rate offenses.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that was the big complaint with us with

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Speaker 2: LSU is I said, this is the middle of the season.

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Speaker 2: You can't win the national championship if you're not playing

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Speaker 2: any defense. And LSU was having just mistackles and angle problems.

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Speaker 2: It wasn't x a's and o's and obviously they've got

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Speaker 2: that figured out. So I don't want to play Monday

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Speaker 2: morning quarterback where I sit here and say nobody can

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Speaker 2: beat them and Clemson is lucky to be in this game.

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Speaker 2: But that is actually the truth. I mean, Ryan Day

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Speaker 2: with the you know, some questionable decisions on you know,

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Speaker 2: making a punt. There's questionable decisions from the referees the

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Speaker 2: entire freaking game.

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Speaker 1: How did they overturn that fumble? People on Twitter were

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Speaker 1: screaming at me thinking I had Ohio State, I had

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Speaker 1: the under and Clemson lie that was my only positions

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Speaker 1: on the game. You can't overturn that, Like, uh, maybe

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Speaker 1: if you called it incomplete, you can say stands. I

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Speaker 1: was like, shit, this under now might be in trouble.

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Speaker 1: I was like, they're not going to overturn this, and

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Speaker 1: then I saw I saw the pad out. Once you

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Speaker 1: see the pad and pen, you either get sick to

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Speaker 1: your stomach or you get really happy based on what

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Speaker 1: you have. So you know they're overturning it, and I said, wow,

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Speaker 1: they're really overturning this call. That was shocking.

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Speaker 2: For it to go under, I always say, is a

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Speaker 2: little bit fortunate, I guess, But I mean, this total

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Speaker 2: here at sixty nine, and it's trending down sixty eight

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Speaker 2: and a half. I think at sixty seven, I'll be

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Speaker 2: a big buyer on the over because is LSU going

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Speaker 2: to be able to put that up on their own?

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Speaker 1: My gosh. Yeah. But I just think the biggest difference

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Speaker 1: with LSU is that it's the defensive improvement. It's the

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Speaker 1: health of Grant Delpit, and they've shown that over the

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Speaker 1: past month. The offense has been a lead all year.

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Speaker 1: You had early in the year when you had Vanderbilt

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Speaker 1: put up like thirty five. This defense is now on

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Speaker 1: another level. And also the special teams are elite. They're

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Speaker 1: all the huge events there against Clemson. But we're gonna

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Speaker 1: get all into the sea. But let's talk about this

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Speaker 1: the Clemson Ohio State. The reason that I really wanted

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Speaker 1: LSU guts clumpson now coming into the cultural play. I

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Speaker 1: think we both said we think els who's gonna win it?

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Speaker 1: But you saw obviously Clempson is a great team. There's

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Speaker 1: no doubt about that. No one would doubt that they're

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Speaker 1: a top two or three team in the country. But

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Speaker 1: from what I see now, it's just one game. And

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Speaker 1: again it's just one football game. So like Clempson could

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Speaker 1: beat LSU easily, there could be three fumbles and where

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Speaker 1: they could come out and just play spectacular. But from

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Speaker 1: what I saw on the first time that Clempson stepped

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Speaker 1: up all year we've seen LSU step up all season,

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Speaker 1: is that this team is in as elite as the

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Speaker 1: one that we saw last year. So I think that

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Speaker 1: the offense can still explode, but they're the defense I

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Speaker 1: just don't think is as good. And that was one

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Speaker 1: of the questions coming into the year. It was they

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Speaker 1: lost all these guys on defense. You know, they switched

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Speaker 1: schemes and obviously worked against the ACC and by the way,

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Speaker 1: an a seed that hasn't looked great during Boles season,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina maybe, North Carolina, yes, and North Carolin's the

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Speaker 1: team that almost beat Clemson, you know. So I just

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Speaker 1: don't think that the team as a whole is as

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Speaker 1: elite as last year. And I think Let's is as

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Speaker 1: good of a team as we've seen in a long time.

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Speaker 2: I would I would agree with you. I would. I

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Speaker 2: don't think the defense is good. I mean, there's it's

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Speaker 2: really tough for me to talk about the festival because

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Speaker 2: I was just shocked the first few minutes of the

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Speaker 2: game because of how wet the field was and how

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Speaker 2: that you know, and Dobbins took off through the through

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Speaker 2: the line. No one was catching it because nobody could

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Speaker 2: get turned around on the turf. And if you know

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Speaker 2: anything about what goes on down in Glendale, they just

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Speaker 2: roll that carpet in. They let it sit outside. If

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Speaker 2: it gets too hot, they roll it back in. They

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Speaker 2: keep a tarp on it outside. And I've been down

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Speaker 2: here in Phoenix for a few days now it's been

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Speaker 2: raining cats, And so did they just leave that thing

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Speaker 2: like untarped outside before they rolled it in, Because I've

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Speaker 2: never seen an indoor you know, turf get slipped on

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Speaker 2: so much. I mean, footing was a serious issue of

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Speaker 2: you know, especially to the first quarter of that game.

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Speaker 2: That made both teams look a little inefficient on both

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Speaker 2: sides of the ball everywhere. But I'll tell you what,

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Speaker 2: one player that's better than what he was last year

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Speaker 2: on this Clemson team is Travis Etn. The speed of

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Speaker 2: this guy and the ability to be elusive around tackles

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Speaker 2: and once you get your hands on them, for him

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Speaker 2: to break them is tremendous. But the ejection of Sean

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Speaker 2: Wade is outrageous. This hole, you're kicked out of the game.

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Speaker 2: You know when when you know, I mean, come on,

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence was lowering it. He was such a vital

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Speaker 2: part of Ohio States back seven and to throw him

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Speaker 2: out of the game. I said, well, I mean this

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Speaker 2: is the biggest turning point. Here comes Clemson. Look out because.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's I believe they South scored him twenty nine

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Speaker 1: to seven after he went out. Yeah, which is crazy.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I'm so happy that elis you

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Speaker 1: just won by one hundred and that missed p I

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Speaker 1: didn't mean anything. And then we would like change the

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Speaker 1: rules in college football. We'd have to review next year,

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Speaker 1: but we need two types of targeting. And I've been

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Speaker 1: saying this forever, like there are targeting calls where you're like, dude,

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Speaker 1: that's fucked up.

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Speaker 2: You got to go like the OU what the OU

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Speaker 2: secondary guy did?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that was.

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Speaker 2: Pridict That was stupid and ridiculous and you should be

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Speaker 2: kicked out.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's something like when you launch your head and

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Speaker 1: like a missile at a quarterback's head after releases, Like

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Speaker 1: there's some where everyone it's like the bar test. Everyone

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Speaker 1: in the bar goes, oh wow, you got to throw

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Speaker 1: them out for And by the way, stop making these

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Speaker 1: kids do a purp walk. They work their whole lives

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Speaker 1: to go and then they got to leave the They've

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Speaker 1: got to leave the fucking field. They can't even sit

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Speaker 1: without their Shulder pats. They're watching it on a TV

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Speaker 1: on a bench like there's some drunk bet almost better.

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Speaker 1: So that's ridiculous. Then that there needs to be another

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Speaker 1: rule where you say, okay, we do have to worry

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Speaker 1: about player safety, and it's just fifteen yards. That's it.

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Speaker 1: The guy stays in the game. So I think there

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Speaker 1: just needs to be a distinction between the two types

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Speaker 1: of potential targeting heads.

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Speaker 2: And I mean, I guess the last thing I'll say

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Speaker 2: is I did ad just the power ratings, and I

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Speaker 2: actually have Clemson and LSU even right now, so I

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Speaker 2: make the game a pick. And you and I both

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Speaker 2: said this, We thought that it would come out to

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Speaker 2: be like an LSU minus one especially if there would

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Speaker 2: be some sort of blowout scenario if Clemson made it in.

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Speaker 2: But there's so much money. I mean, I was texting

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Speaker 2: a couple book makers in Vegas and they got more action,

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Speaker 2: two way action on it than they could ever expect.

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Speaker 2: The limits, you know, I think we're fifty thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: over the counter, and they were taking limit bets yesterday,

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Speaker 2: and obviously they took a bunch more LSU for it

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Speaker 2: to jump up as high. I don't know at what

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Speaker 2: point we're going to have to say, listen, you got

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Speaker 2: to take Clemson. This number is way too high. I

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Speaker 2: know that number is going to be six six and

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Speaker 2: a half seven once it gets there. I don't know

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Speaker 2: how you don't play Clemson, but with you want to

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Speaker 2: get in front of this train, I don't know if

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Speaker 2: I want to get in front of this train.

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Speaker 1: Look, I downgraded Clemson, but I upgraded LSU again. I

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Speaker 1: gave them just a bump on a bump because I

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Speaker 1: can't bump them enough. So I actually make LSU now

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Speaker 1: over a field goal. But I still just love them

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Speaker 1: and can't see them losing. But I can't lay for five.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I was like, I want a field

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Speaker 1: goal or not, because obviously the difference between like if

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Speaker 1: you if you make them one, two, three, you know,

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Speaker 1: if you make them over a field goal, the difference

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Speaker 1: between getting like one, two or three, it's not that

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Speaker 1: big of a give. Once you're a field goal, it's

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Speaker 1: obviously huge.

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Speaker 2: I moved them four and a half points. And for

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Speaker 2: people that don't keep power ratings, but this isn't week one,

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Speaker 2: this isn't week two. It is a massive adjustment this

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Speaker 2: time of year. I mean, it's it's unprecedented. And listen,

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Speaker 2: I tweeted this out yesterday, and I'm not trying to

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Speaker 2: give credit to other people that bust their ass on

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Speaker 2: power ratings and stuff, but LSU minus eight I was

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Speaker 2: one of the ones that was heavier on LSU compared

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Speaker 2: to your sp pluses of the world, compared to your

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Speaker 2: sagarins of the world, compared to FPI, I was higher.

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Speaker 2: I was higher on LSU than anybody. And I had

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Speaker 2: to adjust them four and a half points. And I

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Speaker 2: took a little bit off of OU to make this,

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Speaker 2: Like if there was a rematch, you'd be around sixteen

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Speaker 2: and a half. I still don't think that's enough, but

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Speaker 2: an adjustment of four and a half points this time

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Speaker 2: of year is a massive move and it's unprecedented.

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Speaker 1: It's still like these two they're not that far apart.

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Speaker 1: It's just that this LSU team, to me, is on

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Speaker 1: a different level. But we'll have so much more on

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Speaker 1: that game. Look, I'm about even for both season still

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Speaker 1: after this weekend. But most of my biggest bets are

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Speaker 1: all this week before we get into them, let me

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Speaker 1: just recap really quickly the weekend. Notre Dame rold I

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Speaker 1: always say Matt Campbell have so much respect for looked

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Speaker 1: drunk and that team was underprepared and.

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Speaker 2: Sea ball and fourth down.

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Speaker 1: They'll speak the ball guns or have a backup that

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Speaker 1: all he does is practice snaps with a with a

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Speaker 1: center or a backup center and have them come in

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Speaker 1: and do it if your quarterback can only take But

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Speaker 1: these are kids that have played quarterback their whole lives

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Speaker 1: that they're you're just taking a snap and moving forward.

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Speaker 1: It's ridiculous some of these fourth down calls. Air Force

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Speaker 1: beats Washington State semi fortunate. Air Force wins, I mean

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Speaker 1: the Service gud ones. Again, they're like seventy five percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread. I mean Washington State. I had the over.

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Speaker 1: I know you're the first half under, but I washed it.

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Speaker 1: Taket stopped at the one. And the worst part about

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Speaker 1: that is you know that it's now going to take

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Speaker 1: an extra three minutes just for air Force to get

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Speaker 1: to the thirty where they would have started to watching.

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Speaker 1: The State's got a touchdown, and it happened again later

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Speaker 1: in the game, and then obviously the air Force goes in

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Speaker 1: like a thirteen minute touchdown drive.

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Speaker 2: For me to have zero zero through the first quarter

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Speaker 2: and then have to sweat and under thirty four for

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Speaker 2: the first half.

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Speaker 1: That was almost connected on a bomb late. That would

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Speaker 1: have been horrible.

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Speaker 2: But it would have matched up with some of the

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Speaker 2: other things that happened. But between that pen straight bowl over. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: would you like to mention rant of the week?

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Speaker 1: Time? All right, let it out.

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Speaker 2: This is your rant of the week.

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Speaker 1: Wake Forrest one of the worst beats I've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: There needed I was trading that game back and forth.

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Speaker 1: That's how crazy. Like first they was just like Wake, score,

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Speaker 1: all right, let me get Michigan State. Michigan State is scored,

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Speaker 1: let me get Wake. That's the type of game it was.

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Speaker 1: They were just scoring, scoring and then it got to

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Speaker 1: forty eight points with eleven to go in the game,

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Speaker 1: you just needed one field goal, no points. The rest

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Speaker 1: of the game, I missed field goal. I didn't even

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Speaker 1: see the end of it. Yeah, I had.

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Speaker 2: Forty one points at halftime and I'm sitting on over

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Speaker 2: what fifty and a half fifty one and we can

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Speaker 2: only get a time and we had multiple opportunities. We

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Speaker 2: had multiple red zone trips, multiple field goals that were missed.

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Speaker 2: I have not had a beat like that in quite

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Speaker 2: a while. Like, I mean, we're talking up pacing the house,

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Speaker 2: outside the house, around the house, come back to the Twitter,

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Speaker 2: and of course the everybody likes to chirp about you

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Speaker 2: know this and that. I mean, there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: chirping going on during bull season. But some of the

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Speaker 2: things that are happening these Bulls are just so random

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Speaker 2: and percentage probability wise are just unbelievable, just unbelievable to

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Speaker 2: go from like a ninety nine percent cover rate down

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Speaker 2: to zero. You take the good with the bad. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I was pretty upset.

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Speaker 1: Over games like that that are so painful, or that

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Speaker 1: the way that they work is that game you never

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Speaker 1: thought you were going to lose, right, You're basically in

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Speaker 1: your head it's a winner, until then there reaches a

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Speaker 1: point where you start to be like this is going

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Speaker 1: to somehow lose, and then it just becomes this feeling

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Speaker 1: in your bones and then you hope it doesn't happen,

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Speaker 1: and then it keeps getting longer and longer, and then

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Speaker 1: it gets worse and worse, and then you're just watching

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Speaker 1: just everything fall apart in front of you. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: always so much worse when you didn't even see it coming,

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Speaker 1: like it wasn't even a thought.

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Speaker 2: There's been a lot of losses that I've taken this

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Speaker 2: bull season that have been like a half point or

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Speaker 2: one point, or like the Hawaii Bowl, like there's just

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Speaker 2: something crazy happening at the end. To get that, I mean,

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Speaker 2: and then we're going to talk about this game, but

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Speaker 2: it's like, you know, I had Texas A and M

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Speaker 2: minus four, which felt like a pretty comfortable cover for

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Speaker 2: most of the game, and then that doesn't cover by

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Speaker 2: a single point. So it's just one of those you know,

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Speaker 2: you go through a streak of this as a gambler

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Speaker 2: where you have half point in single point losses where

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Speaker 2: you had things covered if you did enter a Bowl

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Speaker 2: confidence pool, and you did read the article that we

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Speaker 2: put out. It's been fantastic. We called you know it,

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Speaker 2: kent stayed out outright dog win. The biggest games that

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Speaker 2: we had on there have all covered. Iowa was one

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Speaker 2: of the biggest games that we had in the entire

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Speaker 2: Bowl confidence pool that was able to get pulled out.

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Speaker 2: Clemson was one of the biggest games we had in

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Speaker 2: the Bowl confidence pool that one out. I believe the

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Speaker 2: biggest loss we've taken in the Bow confidence pool is

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Speaker 2: Miami and that was only about an eighteen point loss

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Speaker 2: that we had, and I think everything else has been

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Speaker 2: like sub ten points. So if you read the Bull

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Speaker 2: confidence Pool piece, you should be doing really well because

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Speaker 2: I know in the four Bull confidence pools that I'm

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Speaker 2: in right now, I'm win the top five and all

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Speaker 2: of them. So you know, at least we're standing well

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Speaker 2: from that.

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Speaker 1: Yep. All right, So let's move on to the Bowl

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Speaker 1: games throughout the week. We'll cover everything through Thursday. We've

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Speaker 1: covered a little bit of Monday on the last podcast,

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Speaker 1: so we'll just go rapid fire. Western Kentucky minus three

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Speaker 1: against Western Michigan. This is in Dallas at noon Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Monday over under fifty four. Do you have anything here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely. I mean I like Western Kentucky in

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Speaker 2: this game. Tyson Helton being named Conference USA Coach of

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Speaker 2: the Year. I like this game. I probably liked it

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Speaker 2: a little bit more, but it's kind of steamed over

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Speaker 2: three and a half. So I would probably look at

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Speaker 2: the under on this game because Western Kentucky has been

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Speaker 2: a defensive team the entire season. I mean, they only

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Speaker 2: averaged a little bit over twenty points themselves, but the

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Speaker 2: defense has really just been lights out. And this is

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Speaker 2: a MAC team that I think the Western Kentucky's gonna

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Speaker 2: have some success shutting down. So I definitely like the

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Speaker 2: under in this I'll probably the reason I haven't played

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Speaker 2: the under yet because I think I projected at fifty one,

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Speaker 2: is because it keeps steaming up. It opened up at

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Speaker 2: fifty three and a half, up around fifty five, and

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Speaker 2: I'm just kind of waiting. You know, if you want

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Speaker 2: to cross another couple of key numbers, that's fine with me.

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Speaker 2: But definitely, what's like, I'm going to be in the

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Speaker 2: under in the Western Kentucky Western Michigan game.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Max, actually three and one against the spread, I

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Speaker 1: mean they've been hard in the past. Now I always

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Speaker 1: see people say, well, you know, you should ever follow

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Speaker 1: a trend blindly, except some service academy ones because the

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Speaker 1: market just doesn't know how to model them. You always

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Speaker 1: have enough money out there that is a lot of

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Speaker 1: money because the numbers are off that are keeping these

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Speaker 1: trends to float. But with a MAC, people always say, well,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean? Why just there isn't a price

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Speaker 1: to do. I think a lot of it is that

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Speaker 1: they don't have These teams don't have depth, like more

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Speaker 1: than more so than other teams. The MAC doesn't, you know,

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Speaker 1: they don't they they're not recruiting three and four stars.

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Speaker 1: If you look at Alabama, they have four and five stars,

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Speaker 1: and then their backups are four and five stars. The

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Speaker 1: kids that the MAC get, you know, they're pretty good

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Speaker 1: players are obviously not four and five stars regularly, but

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Speaker 1: the kid they're back up, they don't have a ton

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Speaker 1: of depth. So then by the end of the season,

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Speaker 1: when they're banged up or there's suspensions, like their depth

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Speaker 1: players aren't as good. So I don't think that that's

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Speaker 1: adjusted enough in some numbers and just the theory of

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Speaker 1: mine anyway, I think I like I like Western Kentucky

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Speaker 1: a little bit too. I hope maybe this stuff dicks.

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Speaker 1: There's just not a ton of line item in if

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Speaker 1: it dips down under three or I might look for

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Speaker 1: it live.

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Speaker 2: The fact that they don't score that much makes it

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Speaker 2: hard to take three and a half. So I think

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Speaker 2: three that you'd be fine with this. But I mean,

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Speaker 2: obviously this has been an underteam the entire season, so

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Speaker 2: I would look for three and not three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Later in the day, Mississippi State. This is a rematch

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Speaker 1: of a Bowl two years ago when Mississippi State beat

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. Actually Missisippi State Louisville. This is in Nashville,

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State, depending on where you look, four and a half, five,

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Speaker 1: five and a half point favorite over under sixty two

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Speaker 1: and a half. Now, we talked about this before. Missisippi

403
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Speaker 1: State's defensive numbers probably not as bad as they look

404
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Speaker 1: because of all the suspensions all year. The explosive its

405
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Speaker 1: numbers are horrible, and that's not good against Louisville's top

406
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Speaker 1: ten in passing and rushing explosiveness and then also dance

407
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Speaker 1: for their best corner is now on the other side

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State should be able to just run it at will.

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Speaker 1: They're a great running team in Louisville's rush defense is horrendous.

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Speaker 1: Think they're one hundred and twenty third in the nation

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Speaker 1: and yards to rush all out. But my main concern

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Speaker 1: here is motivation. So there's only a couple of games.

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Speaker 1: There's like usually about eight to ten games where I'll

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Speaker 1: factor in motivation where I think that, all right, I

415
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Speaker 1: can maybe use this to either keep me away from

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Speaker 1: a game, which I did with Miami, or pushed me

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Speaker 1: over the edge on a game. Now, so far, it's

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Speaker 1: only been a couple and I think I'm like two

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Speaker 1: and one in those games, Like I used it with

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan and San Diego State obviously failed. There Kent

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Speaker 1: State that worked, pushed me over the edge on Washington,

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Speaker 1: you know, kept me away from Miami. So sometimes it's

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Speaker 1: hard to quantify. But here I think it could be

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Speaker 1: an issue because I know Louisville will care right like

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Speaker 1: Saturfill have them ready. This is a team that won

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Speaker 1: two games last year. Now they're playing an SEC team

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Speaker 1: in a bowl, so I think it'll matter to them.

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Speaker 1: It's important to the program Mississippi State. I think that

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Speaker 1: the more talented team. The only thing is here. Do

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Speaker 1: they care? And does the fight? There's a fight in

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Speaker 1: practice where the defensive player knocked out quarterback. Garrett Trader

432
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,440
Speaker 1: was going to start. Now Tommy Stevens is starting. Does

433
00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 1: that signify that there's something going on with this team

434
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 1: and they're literally fighting each other knocking the quarterback out

435
00:17:43,280 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 1: with their fists. Does that worry you at all? Because

436
00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:46,920
Speaker 1: I know by the numbers you like in the state.

437
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do like Missippi State a lot. In this game,

438
00:17:49,080 --> 00:17:51,320
Speaker 2: I don't know if that fight and knocking out the

439
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 2: quarterback is a signal of we're hungry to achieve something

440
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,600
Speaker 2: here in the program, or we are just a bunch

441
00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 2: of misfits that can't seem to have any discipline whatsoever

442
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,400
Speaker 2: in the program and Joe Morehead's just being too nice

443
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,199
Speaker 2: to everybody, And I mean, that could be it. I

444
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,360
Speaker 2: don't know, We'll see. I mean, every time we talk

445
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:09,880
Speaker 2: about Missippi State, we have to bring up the fact

446
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 2: that there was an eight game suspension for a number

447
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,439
Speaker 2: of players if they had to cascade through the season,

448
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 2: and here we are having these kinds of things happen

449
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 2: in practice. I don't know. What Morehead needs to have

450
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 2: like a sheriff come in and run his practices and

451
00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 2: help run his program because it just seems like there's

452
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 2: something going on internally all the time with this team.

453
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 2: From a next season, Oh standpoint, I love Mississippi State.

454
00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,199
Speaker 2: In this game. Kylon Hill is going to play. He

455
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,159
Speaker 2: declared for the NFL Draft, but he's going to hang

456
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: on here. He's going to try to become Missisippi State

457
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 2: single season rusher for all time. You know, for Louisville,

458
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,920
Speaker 2: they are predominantly a run team. They are I think

459
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 2: top five in the nation and rush rate. They love

460
00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 2: to run the ball, and they've lost their left tackle

461
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:45,080
Speaker 2: McCay Beckton. He is going to go to the NFL Draft.

462
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 2: He's get projected to be a top ten pick. He

463
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,600
Speaker 2: is considered the best run blocker in the nation, and

464
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 2: that is Louisville's identity really is running the ball. With

465
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 2: the kind of quarterbacks, the number of quarterbacks they've had

466
00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,280
Speaker 2: under center this year, they love to run the ball

467
00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:59,879
Speaker 2: and they're going to miss their best run blockers. So

468
00:19:00,440 --> 00:19:02,880
Speaker 2: I think Missisippi State's got the certainly has the upper

469
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 2: hand in this game, and I'll be backing.

470
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 1: Them if this gets a little too high, I might

471
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 1: look at Louisville with some because Mississippi State, to me,

472
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:10,840
Speaker 1: you know, there should be some points in this game too,

473
00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:12,000
Speaker 1: so I might just look to see if I can

474
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: get a really good number live. But then again, if

475
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,199
Speaker 1: Mississippi State comes out and goes up seven nothing, then

476
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: that means that you know they might get care and

477
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 1: come out focused. So that's the kind of dance you

478
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,359
Speaker 1: have to do. The thing is that Mississippi State way

479
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 1: more talented. It just comes down to motivation and we'll

480
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:27,919
Speaker 1: see because there's been a couple of times this year

481
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:29,479
Speaker 1: early in the year where they just look like a corpse.

482
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 1: Now it's gotten better at the end of the year,

483
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 1: but we'll see whether or not that shows in this

484
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 1: game is TBD. Also at the same time on Monday

485
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 1: afternoons with two bowls kicking off the same time, Monday

486
00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 1: afternoon should be like that every December. We're talking about

487
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 1: cal Illinois. Kal is a six and a half point

488
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: favorite here over under forty four. Look, when this line

489
00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 1: came out, I said, I think S and P and

490
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 1: a couple of projections had Illinois a huge, like a

491
00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:53,840
Speaker 1: five point favorite. So I said, when this line comes

492
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 1: out like Illinois is a paper tiger, right, They're just

493
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,919
Speaker 1: they got lucky with turnovers all year. I mean, this

494
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: team is mers. We said it all year long. They

495
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:05,879
Speaker 1: were extremely luckies, and you know, I don't believe in

496
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: this team at all. And then Cal on the other side,

497
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: really good defense. But by the way, their Ashton Davis,

498
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 1: I think is their star safety. He's out out there,

499
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,240
Speaker 1: another safety, senior safety is out so this cow defense

500
00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:17,399
Speaker 1: might not be as good, especially on the back end,

501
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:19,480
Speaker 1: as they normally are. And I think the offense is

502
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 1: better than their numbers, because when Garbage is in, the

503
00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 1: offense is it's a different story. And I think there

504
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:25,920
Speaker 1: were six and oh or five and oh with him,

505
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:28,120
Speaker 1: and then like two and five or one and five

506
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 1: without him, which makes me want to look a little

507
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,480
Speaker 1: bit at the over. It's steamed up from forty one

508
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 1: and a half up to forty four. It's obviously across

509
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:38,080
Speaker 1: the you know, a couple key numbers here, especial if

510
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 1: it gets to forty four and a half forty five.

511
00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:42,520
Speaker 1: But at the col I made it six. So I

512
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 1: wanted to get Cal and I was hoping for a

513
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 1: generous line here not happening. I lean a little bit

514
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,800
Speaker 1: to the over. Not sure I'll get involved pregame, how

515
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:50,159
Speaker 1: about you.

516
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 2: I have taken over forty three and really it was

517
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,159
Speaker 2: Illinois downfield passing is going to take advantage of the

518
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,960
Speaker 2: fact that Ashton Davis and the cow secondary's out for injury.

519
00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,439
Speaker 2: But there's multiple other suspensions in the back seven for Cal,

520
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:03,959
Speaker 2: and I think that's going to open up for Illinois

521
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: to score some points here. You mentioned Chase Garber's he

522
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:08,320
Speaker 2: did lose his second leading wide receiver to one of

523
00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 2: those suspensions, but there's eight other receivers that have at

524
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 2: least ten receptions on the season. There's a lot of

525
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 2: targets that he's hit. So I think this is a

526
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: game where kind of people are kind of thinking it's

527
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: going to be a low amount of points. That's kind

528
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 2: of how you feel about Cal football, and they know

529
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,199
Speaker 2: that Illinois is kind of a fraud. But there's going

530
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: to be points scored here. The holes in the secondary

531
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,479
Speaker 2: for Illinois and Brandon Peters to exploit. Col is going

532
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:29,639
Speaker 2: to be able to put up points of their own.

533
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 2: So I definitely like the over in this game fair enough.

534
00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:33,520
Speaker 1: And by the way, all we have previews on all

535
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 1: these games in the Action Network dot com and the

536
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: Action Network app. All Right, that night, we have one game,

537
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 1: Florida Virginia. Florida is a fourteen and a half point

538
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 1: favorite over under fifty five. These two teams are snailish,

539
00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 1: which is something to keep in mind from a pace perspective.

540
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,600
Speaker 1: One thing to mention with Florida. By the way, Dan

541
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:52,199
Speaker 1: Maullen is excellent as a favorite. He's forty eight and

542
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:55,159
Speaker 1: thirty four against the spread as a favorite in his career.

543
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 1: There was a questions, especially along the defensive line, like

544
00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 1: where they're going to play, and it looks like everyone

545
00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: is going to play except for CJ. Henderson their stark corner,

546
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: which I think is a good sign. You know, you

547
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 1: know guys like Grenard and on their defensive line that

548
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,720
Speaker 1: are playing that could have sat out, and you know,

549
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: a couple of receivers also, so the fact that they're

550
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: suiting up, I think shows that they care as a team.

551
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: And you know, when I look at this game, it's

552
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 1: it's I don't know if Virginia can slow down Florida's

553
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 1: passing attack. And that's what I think this might boil

554
00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:25,720
Speaker 1: down to, what do you see here. But I mean

555
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: to me, though, is that I make the line fourteen.

556
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: I mean I make the line sixteen and a half.

557
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 2: So I am actually looking too the hop on Florida

558
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 2: if we can get a dip down to thirteen and

559
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 2: a half and thirteen and there is some love in

560
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: the market for Virginia, but I don't see it. I

561
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,720
Speaker 2: don't understand it because Virginia struggles against teams that can

562
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,680
Speaker 2: throw it deep and can contain Bryce Perkins. Let's talk

563
00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: about what Florida is. Florida's fifth and defensive have at

564
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 2: top twenty five in the line yards and power success.

565
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 2: That is a team that can contain Bryce Perkins and

566
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: give him pressure and force him to make bad decisions.

567
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: Florida's seventh and defensive sack rate. That's going to be

568
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,239
Speaker 2: something that Bryce Perkins is going to have a problem with.

569
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,959
Speaker 2: Florida's sixth defensive finishing drives. So even if they get

570
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,159
Speaker 2: down past the forty yard line. By the way, people,

571
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 2: finishing drives matters. Okay, do your stat research and do

572
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 2: your homework. If you're gonna take a team total over,

573
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 2: don't do it against the team that's number one in

574
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 2: the nation in defensive drives. Just don't based on one stat.

575
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 2: Look at the other team, put it together. Listen, see listen.

576
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:22,239
Speaker 2: You can't base a bet off of one stat for

577
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: one team. Do a little bit more thinking before you

578
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: come out and try to be a pro on Twitter.

579
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 2: All right, So Florida's sixth in defensive finishing drives. So

580
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:30,919
Speaker 2: this goes back to the fact that if Bryce Perkerts

581
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: even gets it to the forty, they're gonna have a

582
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 2: hard time scoring. Cayle Trasks finally a starter after Felipe

583
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 2: Franks went down. Feleepe Franks is in the transfer portal,

584
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 2: so it'll be interesting to see where he ends up.

585
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 2: But Florida, you know this, They're all passed, they're no

586
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: run they have no running game whatsoever. So they're gonna

587
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: go deep. Trask is gonna throw from the second that

588
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: he gets off the bus in the Orange Bowl. And

589
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: you know, Virginia's passing success rate defensively is twentieth in

590
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 2: the nation. But that's a season long number. That's before

591
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 2: Bryce Hall went out with injury in the middle of

592
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 2: the season, and then everybody else in the secondary has

593
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 2: been playing music chairs trying to catch up, and it

594
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 2: just hasn't been pretty. Look at the cleansing game and

595
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,359
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence just threw all over the place, and Trash

596
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,280
Speaker 2: can do the same thing. I'm not saying the terbor Lawrence,

597
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 2: but Trash can hit, you know, hit any receiver anywhere

598
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: on the field.

599
00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 1: So, and Florida as a top five I think group

600
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 1: of receivers as far as talent is concerned.

601
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 2: Absolutely, So I am I am reserved to let this

602
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 2: Florida number get down below fourteen, and I am reserved

603
00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 2: to let this total creep up a little bit before

604
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 2: I go Gators in the under.

605
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 1: Fair enough, Yeah, both teams do play really slow.

606
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 2: One hundred and thirteenth Virginia's one hundred and thirteenth in

607
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 2: pace seconds per play and Florida's eighty seventh and seconds

608
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 2: per play.

609
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: That's slow. Yeah, two solid special teams U and it's okay.

610
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 1: Let's move on to Tuesday. We will start with Kentucky

611
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,320
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. This game is at noon on Tuesday on

612
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 1: ESPN in Charlotte. This is the last belt ball, last

613
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 1: bat ball boy, so I know I'm gonna get fucked

614
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 1: some way, and I have. Of course, the vocals got

615
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 1: to send me out in fashion. I have the under here,

616
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 1: I played under forty six and a half. I played

617
00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: under some under first half small. I'll tell you why

618
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 1: I like it. It's one of my favorite totals of

619
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 1: Bowl season. I mean, first of all, both of these

620
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 1: teams are snails, complete snails. Virginia Tech slow. Kentucky's a

621
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: snall Kentucky. All Kentucky does is run. They are basically

622
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 1: like Army. Now. They can't throw the ball at all.

623
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: By the way, their quarterback Glynn Boden has been amazing

624
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 1: as a runner. He's their starting quarterback, but he's their

625
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 1: leading receiver and leading rusher, but not their leading passer.

626
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: So try to process that. But I mean he had

627
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,119
Speaker 1: like one of six against the airth against ut Martin.

628
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 1: So all they're going to do is run it, and

629
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: they're running like their option ibric with Voden. What I

630
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: look at here is you know they give up. They

631
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: do give up a lot of explosive plays. That's what

632
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,119
Speaker 1: a Bud Foster defense is always going to do. That, right,

633
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: they blitz play press on the outside. I don't care

634
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: about that here. Number one, I don't care about their

635
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: passing explosives numbers. I don't care about their passing. I mean,

636
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: their passing success numbers are great, but I don't care

637
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 1: about that. The Kentucky can't throw the ball, So I

638
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 1: care about their rush numbers, their rushing success, their top twenty.

639
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 1: They do give up a ton of runs. But basically

640
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:06,680
Speaker 1: what this comes down to this is but Foster's last game,

641
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: and he's had a month to prepare for a completely

642
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: one dimensional attack, and I think this defense is going

643
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 1: to come out fired up for him and they're going

644
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 1: to shut down this Kentucky offense that by the way,

645
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 1: with Boden, I think their offensive numbers are really inflated

646
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: because this team, this team basically go back to when

647
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: Boden took over this team and every single week somehow

648
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 1: played in a monsoon, which is insane, like every week

649
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: the Vanderbilt Arkansas Georgia game, which is a huge benefit

650
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 1: to them because they don't throw, but it's just crazy,

651
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 1: and then you have trying to tackle Boden with in

652
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,240
Speaker 1: like slippery conditions in a monsoon. It's go back and

653
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 1: look at some of the tuggi ifs. They're all in

654
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 1: monsoon somehow the last two months of the year. So

655
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: I do think that Virginia Tech is going to really

656
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 1: slow down Kentucky's attack. Foster's going to have them ready.

657
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 1: You know, on the other side of the ball, Virginia

658
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,639
Speaker 1: Tech they can't run the ball at all. It's a

659
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: team that's a you know, ninety six and rushing success

660
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 1: rate one hundred and second in rushing exploseness. So basically,

661
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: you know, their offense has been a lot better with

662
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: Hooker at quarterback, and you know their top ten and

663
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: pass exposeness. But what does Kentucky do really well, Well,

664
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: they have a really good defensive line that can get

665
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: to the quarterback top ten and sacrate. By the way,

666
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech's one hundred and ninth in sacrate on the

667
00:27:11,600 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: offensive line. That's one of their biggest weaknesses, their O line.

668
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: So I think they're really going to struggle with this

669
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 1: huge Kentucky defensive front that can get after the quarterback.

670
00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: But Kentucky's secondary is their strength and their past defense,

671
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: their weaknesses, their you know, the their linebackers in run dy.

672
00:27:25,119 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 1: So I think that the Kentucky defense matches up really

673
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 1: well against Virginia Tech. And on top of that, like

674
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: I said, they're both snails and on top of that,

675
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 1: these are two of the better punters in the nation.

676
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:36,120
Speaker 1: So when they're punting, they're gonna be flipping the field.

677
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 1: And you saw how important that was last night with

678
00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,159
Speaker 1: Clempson Ohio State until Clempson scored like an eightr touchdown

679
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 1: one second, but at the time it was nice. But

680
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 1: I love this under for so many reasons. That's my case.

681
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: I can't disagree with you. I mean, I took Virginia

682
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 2: Tech on the opener at minus three, and it's for

683
00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:52,720
Speaker 2: everything that you talked about, this being a one dimensional

684
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,399
Speaker 2: offense that Virginia Tech has had success against, you know,

685
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: in top twenty five, in line yards seventeenth and stuff, right,

686
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: and really the name of the game for Virginia Tech's

687
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 2: defenses get to Lynn Bowden Junior before he gets out

688
00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 2: of the backfield. Virginia Tech will have massive success if

689
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,119
Speaker 2: they can play in the backfield of Kentucky because they

690
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 2: do give up explosive runs. So you know, if Boden

691
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 2: Junior is able to get to the line of Scrimmage's

692
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:18,480
Speaker 2: he might break a big one. But I mean everything

693
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: that you talked about, I agree with you on the under.

694
00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 2: The problem is I had to projected at fifty one,

695
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 2: So if it takes up a little bit, I'll consider

696
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 2: an under. But I think it's it's priced right now

697
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 2: to where it's taken into account that these two teams

698
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: can cancel each other out what they do well. The

699
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 2: Hendon hooker, you know, thing eighth in passing explosiveness, he's

700
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,680
Speaker 2: been fantastic. He was a you know, ten touchdowns to

701
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: zero interceptions until they had the Virginia game where he

702
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 2: had two interceptions. You know, listen, Virginia Tech's been successful

703
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: against dual threat quarterbacks. They were against Georgia Tech, but

704
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,160
Speaker 2: they weren't so much against Bryce Perkins. Bryce Perkins had

705
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 2: a great day moving the chains and being the hookies

706
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 2: to get to the AEC Championship game.

707
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: But don't you think they also going to help them,

708
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 1: like seeing Parkins and then also then adding a month

709
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: to prepare for another quarterback that's Perkins esque with his legs.

710
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: I think that could actually work in our favorite.

711
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, I just you know, in the weather seems

712
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 2: perfect too. It's going to be clear, fifty degrees, so

713
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: there's no bad weather getting involved. But you're right from

714
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 2: a seconds per play perspective, with pace Kentucky's one hundred

715
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 2: and twenty fourth, Virginia Tech is ninety second, So nobody's

716
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 2: going to be running up to the line of scrimmage

717
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 2: and hiking the ball. Is going to be an extremely

718
00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,720
Speaker 2: slow game. And you're right. Number one pun efficiency is Kentucky.

719
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech's thirty fifth in pun efficiency, but Kentucky's punt

720
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 2: return efficiency is like seventy third, so it is definitely

721
00:29:30,240 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: an undergame. I wish it wasn't so much farther lower

722
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: than my projection, or else I'd be on the under two.

723
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 2: I'm gonna stick with Virginia Tech. I just I believe

724
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 2: in Hindon Hooker. He was able to hit a fifty

725
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: yard pass in five of the seven games that he played.

726
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: I mean, we can talk about how terribly the ACC is,

727
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: but it's just impressive how this kid can connect deep.

728
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 2: So I'm going to stick with my Virginia Tech side,

729
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 2: and I'll look for a way to play the under

730
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 2: as well.

731
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 1: Watch the Virginia Tech offensive line. It's why I think

732
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: Kentucky can contain this offense, and I think the same

733
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 1: with the other side. You have Virginia Tech's punter Oscar

734
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: bradbur and I think he's an Ausse was a semi

735
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: finals for the Ray Guy Award and Max Stuffy, Kentucky's

736
00:30:04,800 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 1: bunner won it. So you have two Ray Guys semi

737
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: finals punning in this game, one in the winner. All right,

738
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:13,320
Speaker 1: let's move on later on Tuesday, Florida State against Arizona State.

739
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: Two o'clock on Tuesday. This game's on CBS. It's an

740
00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 1: Alpasso out in.

741
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 2: The West tixas town of El Pastor picks up.

742
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 1: It's up Minor Nation. We've gotten a couple of Minor

743
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:30,719
Speaker 1: Nations mentions on the Bowl preview pod somehow sun Bow

744
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: Stadium in al Paso. You know this line is sitting

745
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: at Yeah, I think it's ticked down to Ford a

746
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: lot of places. Four four and a half Arizona State

747
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 1: four four and a half point favorite over under fifty

748
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: four ish. We've talked about this a lot. Look, you

749
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: have both starting running backs are out, and then Arizona

750
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: State's best receiver is sitting out, and there's you know,

751
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 1: some coaching changes on the Arizona State side. What this

752
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: comes down to to me is I make this closer

753
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: to a pick, especially with Arizona State's two best players

754
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: out on offense, two best skilled position players, and then

755
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: you know, when I look at the matchup from an

756
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,719
Speaker 1: nex as and O's perspective, I say, the biggest weakness

757
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:08,400
Speaker 1: of this Florida State team all year, and it was

758
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: last year too, is their offensive line. Their offensive line

759
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,479
Speaker 1: is limited so much of what they can do, and

760
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: you just look at the stats, it's horrendous. I mean,

761
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 1: there are one hundred and twentieth in line yards, one

762
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteenth and sacrate, but they're going against an

763
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: Arizona State defensive line that does not get after the quarterback.

764
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 1: Just a bad defensive line, you know, one hundred and

765
00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 1: second in sack rate, ninety fourth and stuffer. I mean,

766
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:30,239
Speaker 1: it's just not a good defensive line. So I think

767
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 1: that Florida State will be able to do some things

768
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 1: on offense they don't do on a consistent basis against

769
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: other teams that have a really good defensive line that'll

770
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 1: just make plays that just consistently put them behind the sticks.

771
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: They're getting holding penalties too, so I don't think that's

772
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: as big of a concern here. So I think Florida

773
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 1: State has a really good shot to win this game,

774
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 1: and every Herm game comes down to one possession at

775
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: the end. So give me that all year.

776
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I absolutely agree. I'm going to back Florida State

777
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 2: in this. I know, if you guys go to the

778
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 2: action app and you look, you'll see Arizona State play

779
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: and you'll see a Florida State play. But you have

780
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: to realize that those those plays came like two weeks

781
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: apart because the news, the news came out. I knew

782
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 2: that cam Akers was a lot to go to the

783
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 2: NFL and that he wouldn't play in this game. So

784
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: I love Jadon Daniels and I love the weapons he had,

785
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: you know, Benjamin and Brandon Iok. And then you know,

786
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: we had a number of things happen for the Sun

787
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 2: Devils that just was not good. You know, as far

788
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: as this Bowl game goes, Herm Edwards fired half the

789
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: offensive staff, including the offensive coordinator you just cleaned outse

790
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: Then Brandon Iok and Neino Benjamin both declared for the

791
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: NFL draft. Decided to set this out. Benjamin is responsible

792
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,000
Speaker 2: for seventy one percent of the total rushing yard. That

793
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: climbs to ninety one percent once you take jad and

794
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 2: Daniels numbers, his rushing numbers out as a quarterback, Benjamin

795
00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: is responsible for ninety one percent of the rushing yards.

796
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 2: That's a huge missing piece to this Arizona State offense.

797
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: And then if you look at Brandon Iok, and you

798
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 2: know Benjamin's receiving numbers, they are fifty one percent of

799
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: the total receiving yards and they account for more than

800
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: half of all of the targets that Jaden Daniels through

801
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: this year. So you know, I just I couldn't set

802
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 2: around with an Arizona State ticket knowing these kinds of

803
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,880
Speaker 2: losses that are going on, knowing that Herm Edwards cleaned

804
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 2: out the offensive staff. And then you look on the

805
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 2: other side of the ball. You know, Florida State has

806
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: two coordinators calling this game that are heavily experienced and

807
00:33:04,680 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 2: very well respected. Kendall Brows will be on his way

808
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: to Fayeville to be Arkansas's new offensive coordinator. And Harlan

809
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: Burnett was at Michigan State, and you know he runs

810
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 2: a four two five, which maybe you know something to

811
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 2: think about when you're looking at a total here for

812
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: the you know, looking at maybe an under you know,

813
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: there's just so much production missing off of both sides

814
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 2: of the ball. I'm going to take the team that

815
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 2: has the better coordinators because that's the team that's going

816
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 2: to be able to get into the locker room at halftime,

817
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 2: make adjustments, and win the game. And that's in favor

818
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: of FSU.

819
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to games. We got a couple

820
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 1: of games coming up that we've been agreeing here to start,

821
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 1: but we might start disagree disagreeing. Navy, I don't know

822
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: if you're going to be on Kansas State here. I

823
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: I don't know. We have Navy Kansas State. This game

824
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 1: is at three forty five on Tuesday on ESPN and

825
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:49,880
Speaker 1: Memphis over under fifty two fifty two and a half

826
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 1: Service Academy in a bowl. I know Navy's going to

827
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: be motivated, right, I mean this, you had the air

828
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: after Air Force covered since nineteen eighty thirty five and

829
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,520
Speaker 1: fourteen against the spread. What that speaks to is I

830
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: think motivation. I know that they're going to be Service

831
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 1: Academies are going to show up. Well, Kansas State show

832
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: up probably. I don't think that there's a reason to

833
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: think that Kansas State wouldn't show up for this game.

834
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: You know, I do think and I think what you're

835
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 1: going to talk about maybe is that their coach Chris Climbon,

836
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: has seen option teams in the past, but this I

837
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 1: don't care if he has, because he's saw tons of

838
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 1: rushing teams at the end. But this defense can't stop

839
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 1: the run. I mean, they are one hundred and eleventh

840
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: in defending rush exposedness. You know, Navy is in offense too.

841
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 1: Navy rushing success obviously sixteenth. You know, Kansas State seventy

842
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 1: ninth on defense. You know, if you look at line yards,

843
00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:41,880
Speaker 1: Navy top twenty five on offense, Kansas State eighty ninth,

844
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 1: one hundred and ninth power success rate on Defenseide they're

845
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 1: gonna get pushed around all day. Navy also number one

846
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: in the nation of finishing drives. We talked about that

847
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: a lot. On the other side. You know, Kansas State

848
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 1: might be able to hit some big plays through the air,

849
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: but this Navy team could compete in the front seven.

850
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: So I like Navy here. These are two slow teams,

851
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: but I think that both will be able to move

852
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 1: the ball. And you know, they are also two really

853
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,320
Speaker 1: good special teams. But I just think that this Navy

854
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: team is just going to move the ball all day

855
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: long with these so service Academy in a bawl with

856
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 1: with matchup reasons to back it, give me the mids.

857
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: How about you? What do you see here?

858
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,240
Speaker 2: Yeah? I really haven't taken a side on this, whether

859
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 2: you know Navy or Kansas State. I actually have Kansas

860
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 2: State power raady to win this game. But you have

861
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: to go deeper into the numbers to find out exactly

862
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 2: how each of these teams is going to win. Everything

863
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 2: that Stuck mentioned is correct about Navy, about how much

864
00:35:34,120 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: they're going to dominate on the ground. Malcolm Perry's going

865
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 2: to have plenty of explosive plays. If you can find

866
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 2: a prop on him going over a total yards in

867
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: a single play, you got to hit it because he's

868
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:44,800
Speaker 2: going to be able to do it against this Kansas

869
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: State defense. I think if you look at the other

870
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 2: side of the ball there, that's where I start to

871
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 2: lean towards the over. You know, Kansas State does not

872
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 2: throw the ball very much. They're actually a very run

873
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 2: dominant team this year. But when they do throw the ball,

874
00:35:57,320 --> 00:35:59,520
Speaker 2: they are forty six and passing success right, but they're

875
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 2: thirty second pass explosiveness. You want to look at the

876
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 2: biggest weakness in Navy. They're one hundred and nineteenth and

877
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 2: defending pass explosiveness, they can get beat deep. Now, Kansas

878
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 2: State doesn't throw it very much, but you got to

879
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 2: think that, you know, cleaning through in the tape of

880
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 2: what Notre Dame did or the fact that SMU was

881
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 2: able to put twenty eight points up through the air,

882
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,400
Speaker 2: You've got to realize that if you can throw on

883
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 2: this Navy team, you're going to win the game. So

884
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 2: I wonder what the play calling is going to be

885
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 2: for Kansas State because if they line up and just

886
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 2: try to run the ball, then that's not going to

887
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:28,440
Speaker 2: be good for an over. That's not going to be

888
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 2: good for Kansas State. Period, maybe you'll win the game.

889
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: So you do think game script lizes they're going to

890
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 1: come out throwing.

891
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 2: I think they have to come out throwing. I think

892
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 2: they've seen where Navies, where Navy has been hurt the most.

893
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: I mean, you just pop that, you pop that SMU

894
00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 2: tape in, you pop that Notre Dame tape in, and

895
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 2: that's just like the template to beat Navy. So I

896
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 2: think even though Kansas State is a heavy run team

897
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 2: and I think they're passing rate. I know that they passed,

898
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:52,479
Speaker 2: they were like one hundred and sixteenth in the nation.

899
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: They don't throw the ball very much, but when they do,

900
00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 2: they are explosives. So this total is sitting around on

901
00:36:57,200 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 2: fifty two. My problem with that, the reason was, I

902
00:36:59,760 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 2: don't I think it's going to be a very large investment.

903
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: As you look at seconds per play, you know Navy's

904
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteenth, Kansas State's one hundred and twenty seventh.

905
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,160
Speaker 2: I mean, you want to talk about snails going up

906
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:10,360
Speaker 2: against each other. There is no hurry up or gidea

907
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 2: up in either of these offenses. So I think Navy's

908
00:37:13,560 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 2: going to be able to explode on the ground. I

909
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 2: think if they come out Kansas State and wants to

910
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 2: throw the ball, they're going to be able to explode

911
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 2: through the air. So that should lead to a lot

912
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 2: of points. I'm just worried about the pace of play.

913
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: So there's going to be an investment on the over,

914
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 2: but it's not going to be a big one. It's

915
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,799
Speaker 2: completely based upon the fact that both these teams can

916
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:30,240
Speaker 2: expose the defense.

917
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: Yep, all right, let's move on to a weird game.

918
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: This is probably the weirdest Bowl Game of the Week

919
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 1: Georgia State Wyoming. It is Wyoming minus seven over under

920
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: a forty eight and a half. These are two polar

921
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: opposite teams in a way. Like Wyoming's defense is so good,

922
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,439
Speaker 1: I mean, especially in their front seven. They were number

923
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: one in rushing success. On defense, their front seven just

924
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,320
Speaker 1: gets a really good push their top five and finishing drives.

925
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: And then on offense, it's like there's just questions about,

926
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 1: like they can't throw it. I don't know even know

927
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,919
Speaker 1: who's starting at court or back. There a snail. They're

928
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:03,840
Speaker 1: really slow. There are one hundred and tenth and seconds

929
00:38:03,840 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 1: per play, and their special teams are decent. Then you

930
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: look at Georgia State. Their special teams suck. They play

931
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 1: really fast, their defense is awful, but their offense is

932
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 1: pretty good. But their quarterback is a torn acl and

933
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 1: but it's still going to play. And so I don't

934
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 1: know how to cap this game.

935
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: What do you got? Well, looking at the number of

936
00:38:22,120 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: betting tickets on this game, there's not a lot of

937
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 2: interesting betting on this game. So I think it's funny

938
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:29,600
Speaker 2: you mentioned the Yooi quarterback because I went deep into

939
00:38:29,640 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 2: the wormhole of journalism looking to see who's going to

940
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: start this game. But it's like, you know, Sean Chambers

941
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:36,360
Speaker 2: hurt earlier in the season, He's definitely not going to play.

942
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 2: Tyler vander Wall has put himself in the transfer portal,

943
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 2: So are you allowed to play for a team after

944
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: you put yourself in the transfer portal? Because he's in there.

945
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: And that leads us to Levi Williams, who is not

946
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: really a great thrower, but he is an excellent runner

947
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,399
Speaker 2: as a quarterback. He's pretty fast for a guy who's big.

948
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: He's a duel threat quarterback and he can actually do

949
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,319
Speaker 2: some damage on the ground against what is possibly the

950
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 2: worst rush defense in all bowl games period, which is

951
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,440
Speaker 2: Georgia State. I mean, we're talking one hundred and fourteenth

952
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: against explosiveness, one hundred and twenty first and line yards. Defensively,

953
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: Georgia State is so terrible at defending the rush, and Levi,

954
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: we're off.

955
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: Too terrible at defending the passity there although it do

956
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: allt matter here, defense is just so bad.

957
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 2: Let's just put it this way. Georgia State is one

958
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty ninth defensively and finishing drives if you

959
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 2: can get to the forty yard line of Georgia State,

960
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 2: you're going to get points up on the board, and

961
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 2: so I think I think Wyoming is going to have

962
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: some success there. Each team's won just one game in

963
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,239
Speaker 2: the month of November, so it's not like they're coming

964
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: in on a hot streak. Both teams, this is their

965
00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 2: third Bowl trip since twenty fourteen, so the coaches know

966
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 2: how to prepare. You know, both teams are good. I'm

967
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 2: not going to say Craig Bowl is any better than Elliott,

968
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: but you know, Javari Jackson's he's been dismissed from Wyoming.

969
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,760
Speaker 2: He was their top defensive lineman. He had seven tackles

970
00:39:50,760 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 2: for loss in three sacks. So that's you know, a

971
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 2: big plus for Georgia State. Although don't look for Dan

972
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 2: Ellington to run anywhere because as Stuck mentioned, he's playing

973
00:39:58,040 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 2: with the torn acl and he's been doing it for

974
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: a while, so he's going to be more, you know,

975
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 2: extremely immobile, a statue back there in the pocket.

976
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: Their offense, I don't know if it's the same like

977
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: with him, it's not.

978
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:09,879
Speaker 2: It's not right.

979
00:40:10,080 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: Against Georgia Southern, they put up ten points four point

980
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: five yards per play. Like again, they played South Alabama

981
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 1: the week before they put up twenty eight. But that's

982
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: South Alabama, right.

983
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,600
Speaker 2: What I want to do is that we talked about

984
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,960
Speaker 2: the contrast and tempo here. Georgia State is eighteenth in

985
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 2: the country and seconds per play in Wyoming is one

986
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 2: hundred and tenth. We know how slow Wyoming is, But

987
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:33,080
Speaker 2: how fast was Georgia State running the offense with Dan

988
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 2: Ellington's torn ACL in that game against South Alabama and

989
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: when they needed it against Georgia Southern. So I think

990
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,280
Speaker 2: there's going to be maybe a deeper dive between now

991
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 2: and New Year's Eve, maybe me going back to see

992
00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 2: exactly how fast Georgia State was running plays with Dan

993
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,880
Speaker 2: Ellington's torn ACL. Did that change whatsoever?

994
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: That? So they're going to go slow?

995
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 2: This is this is an underplay, completely an underplay if

996
00:40:55,280 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 2: they go slow. So it's it's up to me to

997
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 2: go back to look through the box score. If you

998
00:40:58,640 --> 00:41:00,400
Speaker 2: see me put an under in, it's because as I

999
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: can see that the Panthers last two games were running

1000
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,240
Speaker 2: as slow as possible because of the injury to Dan Ellenton,

1001
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 2: although he didn't play in the last game.

1002
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, all right, we'll put the We'll add that

1003
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,640
Speaker 1: to the preview. So we'll take a look and look

1004
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 1: at their pace and now that to the whole previews

1005
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: we have previously, as I mentioned out for every game.

1006
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to a game. I know

1007
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 1: we're going to disagree on Texas Utah. This line is

1008
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: sitting at seven over under fifty five. This game is

1009
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 1: on New Year's e It's seven thirty East, and I'll

1010
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:29,839
Speaker 1: be down in Naples for New Year's Eve. And it's

1011
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: New Year's Eve, an amateur night. I saw have to

1012
00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,719
Speaker 1: go out to dinner with my girl or something, but

1013
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: and then I'll be parked on the couch just drink.

1014
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:36,520
Speaker 1: Is it?

1015
00:41:36,960 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 2: Is it? The worst holiday is New Year's Eve? Like

1016
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 2: the worst holiday for you?

1017
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,840
Speaker 1: Like I mean Valentine's Day is tough because it's like

1018
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: right in the heart of college basketball conference player you're

1019
00:41:45,560 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: trying to figure some stuff out. So I'll go with that,

1020
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 1: all right, So this line's sitting right at seven ish.

1021
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:53,000
Speaker 1: I've been over this million times. I think that Utah

1022
00:41:53,040 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 1: and Away was I think might have been a little

1023
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,840
Speaker 1: bit of a paper tiger. You know, they were just

1024
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 1: blowing out all of these horrible team teams, and then

1025
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 1: you know they could have easily lost to Washington, but

1026
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 1: they were just trucking everyone and it looked really impressive,

1027
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,359
Speaker 1: crushing Oregon State, you know, Arizona State and their fifth

1028
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:10,800
Speaker 1: string quarterback. You know Cal and you know their fifth

1029
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,160
Speaker 1: string quarterback, whoever they were playing, then Arizona and whoever

1030
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:15,959
Speaker 1: was playing a quarterback. I mean, just all these games,

1031
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 1: I'm like, I look back, okay, and then you know,

1032
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:21,680
Speaker 1: against Oregon, they didn't look impressive. They got crushed. Texas, meanwhile,

1033
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 1: has dealt with so many injuries all year, so I

1034
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,600
Speaker 1: think that they're probably gonna be as healthy as they've

1035
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,399
Speaker 1: been all season. You know, I don't know how much

1036
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 1: Utah cares. A motivation is a questionnaire, because they were

1037
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: so close to winning and getting into the College Foball Playoff,

1038
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: you know, winning a back tol chimps that now you're

1039
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 1: going and you're you're not even playing like a major bowl.

1040
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:41,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you're playing Texas, you know, in Texas. So

1041
00:42:42,320 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 1: I think Texas will be up for this. This is

1042
00:42:44,520 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 1: a spot where Herman has historically had his team up for.

1043
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 1: You can go into all the stats about him as

1044
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: an underdog, but it also looks like Colin Johnson is

1045
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 1: going to play, Duverne is going to play. So I

1046
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 1: just think this Texas team is a little underbied. I

1047
00:42:56,920 --> 00:43:00,200
Speaker 1: know that they'll care, and I'm just not sure good

1048
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: shot here Utah might come out a little flat. You're

1049
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: gonna tell me all about the number and why you

1050
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:05,279
Speaker 1: love be so good.

1051
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I do make Utah minus ten and

1052
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 2: a half, and generally I would pay attention to that

1053
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 2: and say that we need to take this number here

1054
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 2: on a key number of seven. And but the problem

1055
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 2: is is Utah has a bunch of missing pieces from

1056
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 2: the secondary, including Julian Blackman. But I mean there's a

1057
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 2: couple other pieces that they've lost. Huge.

1058
00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 1: Did you watch the Organ game right out there? He

1059
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 1: went out.

1060
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 2: Blackman is as big to the Utah secondary as Sean

1061
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 2: Wade was last night to Ohio State. That's how big

1062
00:43:27,920 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 2: of it. He's such a huge havoc maker on this

1063
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: team for the fact that him not to be playing it. Really,

1064
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 2: I have a little bit of pause on back in

1065
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,560
Speaker 2: Utah here. You know, Zach Moss and Tyler Huntley are

1066
00:43:37,560 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 2: playing in this game. They should be able to take

1067
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 2: advantage of what's been a soft Texas defense. The entire year.

1068
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 2: I mean, it matters that Tom Herman fired as defensive

1069
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 2: coordinator and he demoted his offensive coordinator to quarterback coach.

1070
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 2: So I'm not really sure he's calling plays on both

1071
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:53,520
Speaker 2: sides of the ball. But you know, you're right, Duvernet

1072
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 2: and Colin Johnson playing that's a huge threat to the

1073
00:43:56,400 --> 00:44:00,319
Speaker 2: Utah secondary. Ellender Shaid plenty excess hitting those guys down field,

1074
00:44:00,520 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 2: and he can take off and he can you know,

1075
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 2: run on third down. Although the front seven of Utah

1076
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 2: looks like they're going to play and they're one of

1077
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 2: the most ferocious in all of college football, but it

1078
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 2: looks like, you know, if Herman decizes just pass all day,

1079
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 2: they're gonna have plenty of success. You know, the total

1080
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 2: is shy of what I projected at sixty one. You know,

1081
00:44:17,440 --> 00:44:20,279
Speaker 2: Utah's missing pieces in the secondary kind of makes me

1082
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 2: want to make this look at the over because I

1083
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:24,279
Speaker 2: do like the Zach Moss and Tyler Huntley are playing

1084
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 2: as a soft Texas defense and Utah is missing its

1085
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 2: secondary pieces that are the most important. So I think

1086
00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: for me right now, the play that I want to

1087
00:44:31,520 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 2: have is the over. I may consider Texas and joining

1088
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:38,879
Speaker 2: you at seven. Oh baby, listen, you have to throw

1089
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 2: the power ranking.

1090
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: Out in the.

1091
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 2: Utah's secondary was so important to their success this year

1092
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:52,839
Speaker 2: and to be missing all that, I mean more than

1093
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 2: more than just black men. There's other players that aren't

1094
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 2: playing for them. So you know, there may be a

1095
00:44:57,200 --> 00:44:58,759
Speaker 2: Texas play that goes in on the app. But I

1096
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 2: definitely like the over ring.

1097
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 1: In the New Year with the Horns with me, all right,

1098
00:45:02,640 --> 00:45:04,319
Speaker 1: So that is that. That will be the last game

1099
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen, and let's move on to twenty twenty.

1100
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 1: On New Year's Day when you're all sitting around hungover

1101
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: on the couch, which is a great day, they just

1102
00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: lounge and eat and enjoy some college football. We will

1103
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: get things started on Wednesday, January first, with Michigan Alabama.

1104
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,120
Speaker 1: There were some questions about who would be out for Alabama.

1105
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: It looks like their entire offense is going to go

1106
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: obviously not too you have Mac Jones in there, but

1107
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 1: on their defensive side, Jiggs is not playing as well

1108
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 1: as the other corner as well as Lewis. They're outside linebacker,

1109
00:45:36,520 --> 00:45:39,279
Speaker 1: so defense takes a little bit of a hit. You

1110
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 1: know what this comes down to to me is I

1111
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: think there's some value on Michigan, and there's a lot

1112
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: of people that think that there's value in Alabama. But

1113
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: I don't, you know, I have the difference between and

1114
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,840
Speaker 1: Mac Jones is just almost a touchdown now, and a

1115
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 1: lot of people are like, it's only two to three points.

1116
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 1: I don't know how people make that case. And then

1117
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 1: you know, you take some of these Alabama injuries on

1118
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:02,359
Speaker 1: defensive TA defense that wasn't as dominant as a normal

1119
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 1: Alabama defense. Then throwing the fact that Alabama's special team

1120
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: stake as always, they can't pun in, they can't kick

1121
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 1: field goals not good, and you know, then throwing the

1122
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 1: fact that there's motivation questions here. I mean, every time

1123
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: you see Alabama in a bowl game in recent you know,

1124
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 1: this is a team that's, hey, we're supposed to go

1125
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:20,920
Speaker 1: to the College Fotball Playoff? So are they really going

1126
00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 1: to care about the Citrus Bowl against Michigan? And we

1127
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 1: saw a couple of years ago when they played Oklahoma

1128
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 1: they just got trucked. So I think there's motivation questions here.

1129
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: I think Michigan will obviously care. This is Alabama, you know,

1130
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 1: this is hardball, trying to just get a huge win,

1131
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:35,439
Speaker 1: so I think they can have some success moving the ball.

1132
00:46:35,480 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 1: This is an offense that improved dramatically throughout the season

1133
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: in a new scheme, so you know, with another month

1134
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: of prep, I think that's only going to help that

1135
00:46:43,719 --> 00:46:44,680
Speaker 1: offense even more.

1136
00:46:44,960 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 2: So.

1137
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,320
Speaker 1: I like the Wolverines here, you agree.

1138
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:49,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I like Michigan here too.

1139
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:52,439
Speaker 1: The motive way thing, we'll move over off to seven.

1140
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: I just want to get an av Yeah.

1141
00:46:54,000 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 2: I'd love to get a seven half too. And I

1142
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 2: think that's what's kept me hesitant on this is that

1143
00:46:57,120 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 2: I do want to take the Wolverines here. If I

1144
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: have to settle for a seven, and so be it.

1145
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 2: But you know, I've been waiting for the announcement that

1146
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:06,320
Speaker 2: Alabama's you know, going to be missing Waddle and Judy

1147
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 2: and Rugs and all these other players, and it just

1148
00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 2: hasn't come down yet. I hate to say this, but

1149
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,280
Speaker 2: it seems like Judy, like once they lost that game

1150
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 2: against LSU, it seemed like there was a couple of players,

1151
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 2: I would say Judy in particular, that weren't running plays

1152
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 2: all the way out, weren't blocking as much, and not

1153
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 2: extending themselves for cat. I mean, it just seemed like

1154
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 2: thoughts of moving on to the next level were kind

1155
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: of creeping into some of the players' heads after they

1156
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 2: lost that game against tells you because it just didn't

1157
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 2: ever look like the same Alabama team afterwards. But the

1158
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 2: defense can be taken advantage of upfront, and that's exactly

1159
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: where Michigan's going to have a whole bunch of success.

1160
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 2: If you listen to the motivating factors for Michigan, they're

1161
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,319
Speaker 2: completely prepped up to come down and win this game.

1162
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: Harbaugh knows that he's got to get He's got to

1163
00:47:47,480 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: get one of these victors. I mean, you've taken New

1164
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:52,800
Speaker 2: Year's Day losses to what South Carolina to have some

1165
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 2: pretty embarrassing losses to the SEC. You know, Michigan has

1166
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 2: it in the trench offensively to take advantage of this

1167
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,880
Speaker 2: really soft defensive front for Alabama. And then on the

1168
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:05,840
Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball, you know, Don Brown running

1169
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,719
Speaker 2: what he does in the secondary has burned him in

1170
00:48:08,760 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 2: the pass against Ohio State. So it's interesting if he

1171
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 2: goes man or if he goes zone here against Alabama

1172
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 2: and Mac Jones I make the projection on this for

1173
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 2: Action Network at five, So I think there is value.

1174
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 2: Getting the term value here, which means I think the

1175
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,840
Speaker 2: number will move. I think there's value on seven. I

1176
00:48:23,880 --> 00:48:26,359
Speaker 2: think it'll possibly dip as we get closer to kick.

1177
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 2: So I think if you can get a seven or

1178
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:30,080
Speaker 2: seven a half, that's the play to go. I like

1179
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 2: the under in this game because if I like Michigan's game,

1180
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 2: that means they're going to dictate pace and they're going

1181
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 2: to grind it out, and so I like the under.

1182
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:38,279
Speaker 2: Now Michigan on the points, yep, I.

1183
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 1: Agree on the woisverines. All right, Let's move on on

1184
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 1: New Year's Day to another SEC Big Ten matchup at

1185
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 1: one Eastern. I still have two of them going at

1186
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 1: the same time. I'm sure Twitter will be electric to

1187
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 1: bring in the new year with the SEC versus Big

1188
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: Ten two games at Saint Alabama Auburn. It's a nice

1189
00:48:58,200 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: early afternoon slate on the couch about Auburn Minnesota or

1190
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: Auburn is and both of them are right around the

1191
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:08,160
Speaker 1: same spread. Auburn is a seven to seven ish point

1192
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: favorite over under fifty three and a half. This thing

1193
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 1: is ticked up a little bit. You know, when I

1194
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:18,480
Speaker 1: look at this game, I say next season, then full effect.

1195
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 1: I think both teams will care. So I don't think

1196
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 1: this is an Alabama scenario. It's not like Auburn had,

1197
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:28,880
Speaker 1: you know, was like, Hey, we're gonna win this game.

1198
00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:30,719
Speaker 1: We're gonna go to the Collegeable Playoff, you know, and

1199
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 1: I think that they're still a really young team, nick

1200
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 1: co sitting out one of their star defensive linemen, which

1201
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 1: is something to note, you know, if you look at

1202
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: from a total perspective. I said, all right, Auburn, I

1203
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: don't think that they're going to be able to pass

1204
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:48,640
Speaker 1: much against this Minnesota secondary, which is their strength on defense.

1205
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:50,839
Speaker 1: And I think that they might be able to run

1206
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 1: a little bit and that's where they're going to focus.

1207
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 1: And then on the other side, Minnesota is a snail.

1208
00:49:57,400 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 1: But you know, I really like the Auburn defense, but

1209
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: and does play really fast. So I was struggling with

1210
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 1: this total, you know, I was trying to figure out

1211
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 1: a player. But I'm going to make that number kind

1212
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: of around. I actually made it closer to where it opened,

1213
00:50:08,200 --> 00:50:10,200
Speaker 1: around fifty one to fifty two, and it's to fifty

1214
00:50:10,239 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 1: three and a half. I was trying to make a

1215
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 1: case with the under I couldn't, So I don't know

1216
00:50:13,680 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: This line looks about right to me, and the total

1217
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 1: looks about right to me, So I don't have much here.

1218
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 1: It might be a live betting game for me. What

1219
00:50:20,280 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: do you see with Minnesota over.

1220
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:22,759
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be a live betting game for

1221
00:50:22,800 --> 00:50:24,719
Speaker 2: me too. I'm not going to have probably any money

1222
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 2: on this game going into it. Just the fact that

1223
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 2: our Action Network projection makes it seven in the game

1224
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 2: sits on seven, my total makes it fifty six, and

1225
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 2: at fifty three and a half, we're trending on our

1226
00:50:33,239 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 2: way up to fifty six. I don't know how you

1227
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,520
Speaker 2: know Minnesota losing their offensive coordinator to be go Be

1228
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 2: Penn states, I'm gonna mention that, Yeah, I'm not really

1229
00:50:41,160 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 2: sure if he's is he coaching this game if he's not,

1230
00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:46,720
Speaker 2: And what is the game plan for Minnesota really? Because

1231
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: it's been Tanner Morgan just throwing deep, throwing deep, throwing deep,

1232
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:51,919
Speaker 2: and Auburn's going to be able to defend that. So

1233
00:50:52,360 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 2: you know, Auburn's what twelve and passing six defensive passing success, right,

1234
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:58,520
Speaker 2: and they've been thirty first against an opponent explosiveness through

1235
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 2: the air, and you know there's a big mismatch here

1236
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 2: in Havoc too. I mean, Auburn's top twenty in Havoc

1237
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,720
Speaker 2: and they still got Derek Brown on the defensive line,

1238
00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 2: you know, and Minnesota hasn't been the best of protecting

1239
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 2: the ball. Not to mention Minnesota's offensive line is I mean,

1240
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:14,680
Speaker 2: that's one reason that got them in big trouble this year.

1241
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:16,920
Speaker 2: Their offensive line is one hundred and twelve in sacrate

1242
00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 2: and protecting tan or Morgan, which is shown when they've

1243
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 2: stepped up in level of competition. And even though Auburn

1244
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 2: isn't the best sac rate team in the nation, they

1245
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 2: are still an sec defensive line with Derek Brown, who's

1246
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 2: going to be top ten in the NFL draft. So

1247
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 2: that's definitely something to look out for. The biggest matchup

1248
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,399
Speaker 2: on paper that I can see is that Minnesota's top

1249
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 2: ten and finishing drives offensively, and Auburn is top ten

1250
00:51:37,480 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 2: defensively in finishing drive So it's gonna be real bout

1251
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:41,960
Speaker 2: there to see if Minnesota can get points up.

1252
00:51:42,200 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 1: For me, this basically what it came out to me

1253
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 1: is that that I think will determine the total. Yeah,

1254
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 1: that's basically what the total will come down to. I

1255
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 1: think Minnesota will have some success moving the ball with

1256
00:51:52,560 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: their receivers, although Auburn is an extremely good defense. But

1257
00:51:56,440 --> 00:51:59,480
Speaker 1: in the red zone, if Minnesota, you know, once they

1258
00:51:59,480 --> 00:52:02,680
Speaker 1: get it in even the forty thirtieth, Minnesota can get touchdowns.

1259
00:52:03,000 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 1: And that top ten off ranking on offense trump's the

1260
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 1: Auburn's top ten ranking on defensive finishing drives. The game

1261
00:52:09,000 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: will probably go over. Minnesota will probably cover. If Auburn

1262
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 1: is stopping them, the game will probably go under. Auburn

1263
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 1: will probably cover. And the reason for that reason why

1264
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 1: that's even bigger is Minnesota's field goal kicker stinks. So

1265
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: if they're stopping Minnesota, you know, the twenty twenty five

1266
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:29,359
Speaker 1: and then you're getting missed field goals. On top of that,

1267
00:52:29,680 --> 00:52:32,400
Speaker 1: there goes the total and the spread. Everything is determined

1268
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:33,400
Speaker 1: right in that zone.

1269
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:36,279
Speaker 2: And Minnesota special teams is horrific. They're ninety three in

1270
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:38,839
Speaker 2: special teams SP plus one hundred and sixth, the field

1271
00:52:38,840 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 2: goal kicking one hundred and twenty first and kickoff return

1272
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,399
Speaker 2: one hundred and first and pot return. Minnesota special teams

1273
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:45,279
Speaker 2: is pretty bad. And they can't predict the quarterback, they

1274
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:47,319
Speaker 2: can't protect ten and Morgan on the offensive line. So

1275
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 2: I think that's a real reason for me to just

1276
00:52:49,160 --> 00:52:49,919
Speaker 2: stay off this game.

1277
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, they offer alburn offensive line should be able

1278
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,920
Speaker 1: to get a push up front. That is the weakness

1279
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 1: of the Minnesota defense. But I agree the number is

1280
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,840
Speaker 1: about right. It'll come down to those those red zone.

1281
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:02,160
Speaker 1: I mean, once Minnesota is in Auburn territory, what happens.

1282
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 1: All right, So let's move on to the third game

1283
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 1: on New Year's Day. This is the Rose Bowl at

1284
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:14,200
Speaker 1: five eastern. They should have staggered at the Michigan Bama

1285
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:15,000
Speaker 1: in Minnesota Auburn.

1286
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:17,480
Speaker 2: By the way, it was around some family that recorded

1287
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:19,760
Speaker 2: a game and they wanted to wait and start watching

1288
00:53:19,800 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 2: the game at halftime. And that I mean, have you

1289
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:23,560
Speaker 2: ever tried to live at a game when your family

1290
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 2: decides they want to be haved on delay and just

1291
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 2: watch it later so that they can skip through commercials.

1292
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 2: It was a lot of fun.

1293
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:34,239
Speaker 1: That's hilarious. I could never do that. I'd be looking,

1294
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:35,960
Speaker 1: I'd be looking on the app. And you have to

1295
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:37,880
Speaker 1: stay off Twitter. You have to throw your phone out

1296
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 1: the window.

1297
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:40,720
Speaker 2: And you have to be social with your family.

1298
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's brutal, all right. So Rose Bowl wisconsint three

1299
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:49,360
Speaker 1: point favorite over Oregon over under fifty one and a half.

1300
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 1: Here's a game where I think we'll disagree. I mean,

1301
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 1: what this comes down to to me, these two teams

1302
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:58,959
Speaker 1: are mirrors. Like everywhere I look, I'm like, these are,

1303
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 1: you know, two really good defenses to you know, extremely

1304
00:54:03,880 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: solid offensive lines. You know, they they just everywhere I look.

1305
00:54:09,719 --> 00:54:12,080
Speaker 1: You know, Oregon does play a little faster than Wisconsin.

1306
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 1: I mean, Wisconsin's one of the slowest teams in the

1307
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:16,239
Speaker 1: county one hundred and twenty eight seconds per play. They're

1308
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:19,560
Speaker 1: both shitty special teams, but you know, wherever I look,

1309
00:54:19,880 --> 00:54:22,600
Speaker 1: I just think that these teams are so evenly matched.

1310
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:27,240
Speaker 1: And that's why I have it not surprisingly as a pick.

1311
00:54:27,800 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 1: So that makes me want two back Oregon just because

1312
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: I'm getting a field goal. If it was two and

1313
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:35,879
Speaker 1: a half, I probably wouldn't like it. But I think

1314
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 1: these teams are so evenly matched across the board. You know,

1315
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 1: like one of the biggest weakness of Wisconsin's defense defending

1316
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:45,560
Speaker 1: rush explosedness of Oregon is not really explosive running. And

1317
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:47,919
Speaker 1: then everywhere you look on Oregon defensive side, they match

1318
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 1: up well with Wisconsin. Like it's I mean this is

1319
00:54:50,560 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 1: just a it's just like an am movable force. Me

1320
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:55,720
Speaker 1: to fuck, what is that saying?

1321
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:58,360
Speaker 2: That's the wrestling term. It's the irresistible force against the

1322
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 2: immovable object whole co in an Ultimate Warrior.

1323
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: Yes, no, there is, all right, So this is like

1324
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 1: when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force.

1325
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:08,840
Speaker 2: That's what it is, irresistible force.

1326
00:55:09,360 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 1: Okay, well I think it's unstoppable forces immovable object in

1327
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 1: non WW terms, but whatever, you get my points. So

1328
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:17,920
Speaker 1: these kids are just it is a coin clip to me.

1329
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:19,360
Speaker 1: So I just want to take the three, but I

1330
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 1: don't have any like strong conviction as to like, all right,

1331
00:55:22,719 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: this is the difference. And maybe you know one of

1332
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 1: the things that I think, at the end of the day,

1333
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 1: I would take Herbert over Home. But I mean Herbert

1334
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:32,200
Speaker 1: has lost a couple of his weapons this season, and

1335
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:34,640
Speaker 1: I think that it's hurt their offense a little bit.

1336
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 1: But this is basically what it comes down to, is

1337
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: this is such an even matchup to me that I

1338
00:55:39,560 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 1: make the line exactly pick. I think you do too, right, Yeah, I.

1339
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:43,359
Speaker 2: Make it a pick. And that's why I was able

1340
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 2: to get on Wisconsin out a pick when Bowl lines

1341
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 2: first opened, and you know now that it's out to three.

1342
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 2: When it gets to three and a half, for those

1343
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:50,880
Speaker 2: of you that are able to get Wisconsin pick, I'm

1344
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 2: going to come back and take Oregon at three and

1345
00:55:52,239 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 2: a half if it ever gets there, and you make

1346
00:55:55,040 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 2: it a pick.

1347
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: And then you played Wisconsin a pick. Will you plan

1348
00:55:57,680 --> 00:55:59,319
Speaker 1: that because you thought it would move or do you

1349
00:55:59,400 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 1: like something.

1350
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,440
Speaker 2: I absolutely thought the market would move in the direction

1351
00:56:02,480 --> 00:56:04,360
Speaker 2: of Wisconsin, so I was happy to take it at

1352
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 2: a pick and then make a decision later on whether

1353
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 2: I'm going to come back because there's a lot of

1354
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 2: players on both teams that could have declared for the NFL.

1355
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:12,880
Speaker 2: Coaches could have been on the move. I mean, so

1356
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 2: much happens between these bowlines first come out to the

1357
00:56:15,719 --> 00:56:17,040
Speaker 2: time that this was going to be played on New

1358
00:56:17,120 --> 00:56:19,279
Speaker 2: Year's Day. A lot of news could have came out,

1359
00:56:19,320 --> 00:56:21,280
Speaker 2: But I was going to be coming back on Orgon anyways,

1360
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 2: once it got over a field goal. I just knew

1361
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 2: that the market was going to move that way. But

1362
00:56:24,760 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 2: like Stuck says, I mean, I think these are two

1363
00:56:26,640 --> 00:56:30,399
Speaker 2: very well evenly matched teams. To me, the reason why

1364
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,720
Speaker 2: I played Wisconsin not only because I thought the market

1365
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 2: was going to move in the direction of Wisconsin. I

1366
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 2: did it because I knew that they would have an

1367
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:40,760
Speaker 2: advantage in running Jonathan Taylor. Because Oregon is fiftieth defensively

1368
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 2: in stuff right, their fifty ninth and sack right, their

1369
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: twenty ninth in power success right in their twenty seventh

1370
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:48,279
Speaker 2: in line yards. Guess what Wisconsin is better in all

1371
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 2: those categories on offense, which means Jonathan Taylor is going

1372
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:53,080
Speaker 2: to be able to get the ball, get to the

1373
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 2: liney scrimmage, and he's going to be able to pick

1374
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 2: up two or three yards. And that's a huge difference.

1375
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,120
Speaker 2: That's for Wisconsin. What sets up Jack Cone for him

1376
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:01,279
Speaker 2: to be throwing on stay downs, for him to be

1377
00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:03,399
Speaker 2: throwing on third downs, is he's going to have good

1378
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,919
Speaker 2: field position in regard to the first down marker every

1379
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 2: single time on Wisconsin strives. I expect them to be

1380
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,319
Speaker 2: in standard downs a lot more than I expect them

1381
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:14,120
Speaker 2: to be in passing downs just because of those stats.

1382
00:57:14,160 --> 00:57:15,879
Speaker 2: And if you go and look at you know, organ

1383
00:57:15,880 --> 00:57:17,960
Speaker 2: there one hundred and twenty eighth, then field goal efficiency

1384
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 2: one hundred and eleventh, and sp plus special teams. So

1385
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 2: I was comfortable lay in Wisconsin at the pick, but

1386
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 2: I am saying I am coming back at three and

1387
00:57:24,960 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 2: a half on Orgon.

1388
00:57:25,760 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Wisconsin' special teams are terrible too, but

1389
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 1: not as bad. All right, Let's move on to the

1390
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,640
Speaker 1: last game on New Year's Day, and this is a

1391
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 1: game that I love. And if you our moneyline parlay

1392
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: piece will be out by the time you're listening to this.

1393
00:57:43,280 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 1: Baylor is my money line parlot. It's just like they

1394
00:57:45,240 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 1: were last year during goold season. That number one, there

1395
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:49,520
Speaker 1: is a great spot for a rule for your trend players.

1396
00:57:49,600 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 1: He's just dominant as an underdog, dominant on the road

1397
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 1: on neutral fields. He's twenty nine to fifteen to one

1398
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: against spreader on the road or on a neutral field,

1399
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 1: thirty three and fifteen against the spread as an underdog.

1400
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 1: He's the rules. The second most profitable coach among five

1401
00:58:03,760 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty seven coaches in our BEDS database is

1402
00:58:06,520 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: two thousand and five. He will have I mean, he's

1403
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 1: just a great you know, he's he's kind of like

1404
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 1: hermit in the fact that when he's an underdog, he's

1405
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 1: going to have his troops ready. So Baylor will be prepared.

1406
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:15,919
Speaker 2: Here.

1407
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 1: This is a team that just won more you know what,

1408
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 1: one game a couple of years ago. This is a

1409
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 1: really important game for them, for the program. I have

1410
00:58:24,200 --> 00:58:26,680
Speaker 1: no doubt that they'll be ready. Brewer is you know

1411
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: if it was throwing with the ones yesterday. Has been

1412
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 1: cleared to play, so I expect him to play. And

1413
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 1: then you know, on the other side of the ball

1414
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:37,040
Speaker 1: is you know, and I made I made this line

1415
00:58:37,080 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: before any of these adjustments. I like Baylor plus seven

1416
00:58:40,080 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 1: and a half. That's why I took plus seven and

1417
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: a half. And you know now I still like Baylor

1418
00:58:45,520 --> 00:58:48,800
Speaker 1: plus five and a half because of Georgia's entire team

1419
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 1: is out. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. So number one,

1420
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 1: before we even get to that, there was questions about

1421
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:56,440
Speaker 1: their motivation, Like this is they're playing in the same bowl,

1422
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,800
Speaker 1: just like last year against the Big twelve opponent, after

1423
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: having their hopes and dream shattered of going to a

1424
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,000
Speaker 1: college football player. And it might even be worse this

1425
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:05,960
Speaker 1: year because they were like, we're gonna get revenge in

1426
00:59:05,960 --> 00:59:08,200
Speaker 1: the st Championship. We're going back, and no, they're back

1427
00:59:08,240 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 1: in the same Sugar Bowl against a Big twelve opponent.

1428
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:14,800
Speaker 1: It's just the same shit. I mean, so so you say,

1429
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:18,720
Speaker 1: all right, well, maybe we you know, Kirby will have

1430
00:59:18,760 --> 00:59:21,080
Speaker 1: his team ready because then they'll learn from last year

1431
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:23,919
Speaker 1: and they'll care this year. Well, let's take a look now,

1432
00:59:24,400 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 1: All American All American left tackle Andrew Thomas will go

1433
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:30,960
Speaker 1: in the first round. He's out the right tackle whos

1434
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:32,520
Speaker 1: we're going to play in the NFL. And this is

1435
00:59:32,520 --> 00:59:35,000
Speaker 1: one of the best offensive lines in gosh. Well, it's

1436
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 1: the strength of their team. Starting right tackle Isaiah Wilson.

1437
00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:42,920
Speaker 1: I'm sitting out too, Starting guard Ben Cleveland academically ineligible.

1438
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 1: Out three starting offensive lineman out in putting their two

1439
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:47,959
Speaker 1: tackles the two best players. Hey, how about how about

1440
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 1: a receiver not Cager and Playlock and season ending injuries

1441
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:53,680
Speaker 1: and their offense you know without you know, without Cajor

1442
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:55,520
Speaker 1: has just been a mess throwing the ball. How about

1443
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 1: the running backs, Well, they might all their backs I

1444
00:59:57,800 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 1: don't even know who's playing, but all their backs might

1445
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 1: be out. Well, I still don't know.

1446
01:00:01,600 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 2: In Swift, we hurt on Swift injury questionable as a playoff. Yeah,

1447
01:00:06,240 --> 01:00:07,560
Speaker 2: Dowdy plays, I mean why would he?

1448
01:00:07,640 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's others that might play, including James Cook who

1449
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 1: got pulled over with a brandy. We had a bottle

1450
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:14,480
Speaker 1: of brandy and a gun in his car. So, I mean, look,

1451
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 1: this is how this team is serious. This team has

1452
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,560
Speaker 1: taking this game. You got kids driving around with brandy

1453
01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: and guns. You have other kids are academically ineligible, and

1454
01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:25,280
Speaker 1: then the rest are just sitting out for the NFL draft.

1455
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:29,280
Speaker 1: So you know, the defense will is mostly intact, right,

1456
01:00:29,400 --> 01:00:31,600
Speaker 1: I think, at least for now. So I think that

1457
01:00:31,640 --> 01:00:34,120
Speaker 1: their defense will probably show up and they'll make some plays.

1458
01:00:34,120 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 1: They'll make it difficult on Baylor, but I think Baylor

1459
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,880
Speaker 1: will make enough plays on offense. Just a motivational mispetch.

1460
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 1: And this Georgia offense, which was pretty ugly throughout the year,

1461
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 1: they have no explosiveness already without the receivers. Their biggest

1462
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 1: strength was their offensive line, and the whole offensive line

1463
01:00:48,720 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 1: is out. Their backs are all out. I mean, and

1464
01:00:50,760 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 1: this Baylor defense continue to impress me all season long.

1465
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: So I'm trusting rule here. I'm trying to you know,

1466
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,760
Speaker 1: if you're want to talk about special teams, Georgia does

1467
01:00:59,840 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 1: have huge advantage in special teams, one of the best

1468
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,920
Speaker 1: special teams units in all of college football. Baylor special

1469
01:01:04,960 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: teams subpar but other than that, I mean, I think

1470
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 1: Baylor will be ready here. I'm not sure about Georgia

1471
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 1: and all. Well, they might have like eight seven eight

1472
01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:15,560
Speaker 1: guys out from their starting their first team offense. It's crazy.

1473
01:01:15,720 --> 01:01:17,800
Speaker 1: So I like, I like bail anything over a field goal.

1474
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 2: As you're talking to I think I'm going to play

1475
01:01:19,560 --> 01:01:22,440
Speaker 2: event on the under. I mean he listened to all

1476
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 2: these missing pieces and the fact that the Georgia defense

1477
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 2: is still pretty much intact and the Baylor defense is intact.

1478
01:01:28,640 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: These two teams from a defensive finishing drive standpoint ranked

1479
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:35,000
Speaker 2: number one for Georgia and number ten for Baylor. So

1480
01:01:35,040 --> 01:01:37,680
Speaker 2: once you get past the forty yard line, it's it's

1481
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 2: pretty hard to score points against these guys. And you know,

1482
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 2: considering how inept Georgia's offenses anyways, they got barely anybody

1483
01:01:45,200 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 2: to throw to can How can you really trust any

1484
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 2: of this as far as a stuff rate and a

1485
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:52,120
Speaker 2: power success rate goes. When the offensive line is coming in,

1486
01:01:52,160 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 2: you know, brand new and unexperienced, I think this is going.

1487
01:01:55,680 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 1: To be I think that just neither gets up big plays.

1488
01:01:57,960 --> 01:02:01,000
Speaker 2: No, not at all. Yeah. Yeah, we're Baylor's top ten

1489
01:02:01,040 --> 01:02:05,120
Speaker 2: against pass explosiveness, not like Georgia can exploit that whatsoever.

1490
01:02:05,640 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 2: Baylor's top twenty five and defending rush explosiveness is not

1491
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 2: like Georgia can exploit any of that without DeAndre Swift.

1492
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 2: You look at the other side of the ball and

1493
01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 2: Georgia top twenty five and defending explosive plays also, so

1494
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 2: you know the fact that they're both top ten and

1495
01:02:17,760 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 2: finishing drives. It's a complete dead nut under and the

1496
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:23,040
Speaker 2: motivation factors that come in. You know, Baylor may be motivated,

1497
01:02:23,080 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 2: but could they put up a twenty eight, you know,

1498
01:02:25,600 --> 01:02:30,000
Speaker 2: thirty points on Georgia. I'm not really sure they could, right,

1499
01:02:30,080 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 2: So I think this is an underplay. I think we'll

1500
01:02:31,760 --> 01:02:34,960
Speaker 2: put it in here while we're podcasting. But this Georgia

1501
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 2: team in general though, like just from just stepping back,

1502
01:02:37,320 --> 01:02:39,120
Speaker 2: because we're probably not going to talk about Georgia again

1503
01:02:39,200 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 2: until next July or August. I think Kirby knows that

1504
01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 2: his brand of offense is not going to survive the

1505
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:47,640
Speaker 2: way that the SEC is going. I think he looks

1506
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 2: at what Joe Bradley looks at Joe Brady at LSU.

1507
01:02:50,200 --> 01:02:52,440
Speaker 2: He looks at how Sabin has gone to a passing

1508
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:55,160
Speaker 2: offense long ago I think Kirby's got to take a

1509
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:56,960
Speaker 2: step back and look at Koley and look at what

1510
01:02:57,000 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 2: he's doing with his offensive scheme, and he's got to

1511
01:02:59,200 --> 01:03:01,400
Speaker 2: change everything because he's not going to survive in the SEC.

1512
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:03,920
Speaker 2: And I think Dan Mullen realizes that. And Dan Mullen's

1513
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 2: already on the path to having a passing offense. And

1514
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 2: we'll see what he does as far as the running

1515
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,560
Speaker 2: game goes. But you know, Kirby's got to step back

1516
01:03:11,560 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 2: and reevaluate the way that he's coaching his Georgia team

1517
01:03:13,800 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 2: because it looks like the rest of the SEC is

1518
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:17,840
Speaker 2: going in a different direction and going to pass them by.

1519
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 1: All right, So yeah, I mean I could I think,

1520
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:22,560
Speaker 1: you know, Baylor win's this game like twenty seventeen. That's

1521
01:03:22,640 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 1: my game, all right. So let's move on to January second,

1522
01:03:27,720 --> 01:03:31,600
Speaker 1: on Thursday. These these Bowl games are awful, by the way,

1523
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:35,320
Speaker 1: or Thursday. I mean, I would love them if I

1524
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 1: loved something, But as of now, I still have to

1525
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 1: dig a little bit on Thursday. I'm pretty caught up

1526
01:03:39,640 --> 01:03:43,360
Speaker 1: through January first. But you know, we'll go through these

1527
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:47,120
Speaker 1: very quickly. On Thursday, the first game BC, since he

1528
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:50,200
Speaker 1: this is a three Eastern since he is laying seven.

1529
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 1: This is in Birmingham. You know. The the thingk the

1530
01:03:53,480 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 1: note here. But what I found interesting is that, you know,

1531
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:57,560
Speaker 1: I look at some other projections. They make it higher,

1532
01:03:57,560 --> 01:03:59,200
Speaker 1: you make it lower, and this is kind of right

1533
01:03:59,240 --> 01:04:02,960
Speaker 1: in the middle. Boston Colleges start running back now they

1534
01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:04,640
Speaker 1: are they do have another really good back, but their

1535
01:04:04,680 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: star running back A. J. Dillon is going to play

1536
01:04:06,160 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 1: in the NFL. He's sitting out. They also had a

1537
01:04:08,960 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 1: coaching change, you know, and I look at this BC defense.

1538
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 1: Their pass defense probably have the worst pass defense among

1539
01:04:14,200 --> 01:04:16,320
Speaker 1: any Bowl teams, well outside of Georgia State, who's bad

1540
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:18,640
Speaker 1: at everything, but their pass defense is terrible. But since

1541
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:21,680
Speaker 1: he's not, you know, they're not a great passing offense.

1542
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 1: And then on the other side, just how much does

1543
01:04:24,200 --> 01:04:27,960
Speaker 1: Dylan's loss hurt this offense. It's a really good offensive

1544
01:04:27,960 --> 01:04:30,240
Speaker 1: line that can I think get a little bit of

1545
01:04:30,280 --> 01:04:32,840
Speaker 1: push on Cincinnati. So, you know, those are the things

1546
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 1: that I see at first Glince. It is worth noting

1547
01:04:34,400 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 1: the Boston College special teams also stink. Since the special

1548
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:39,480
Speaker 1: teams are really good, especially their punter. They have a

1549
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:41,800
Speaker 1: really good punter. And then from a pace perspective, since

1550
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 1: he plays slow. In Boston College, even though they have

1551
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:45,760
Speaker 1: a really good offensive line, even though they can't really

1552
01:04:45,800 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 1: pass the ball. You know, their quarterbacks been out for

1553
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:50,480
Speaker 1: the year. They are down to you know, Grossel. They

1554
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 1: play really fast from a pace perspective, their top five

1555
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:56,720
Speaker 1: and seconds per play. So you know, this isn't a

1556
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 1: game from when the balls came out that I said,

1557
01:04:59,000 --> 01:05:01,680
Speaker 1: oh I love this matchup er And there's some questions

1558
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:06,480
Speaker 1: with Boston College and also with sinc. Are they motivated

1559
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 1: here for this Birmingham Bowl. I don't know odd game

1560
01:05:08,920 --> 01:05:10,760
Speaker 1: that they will probably stay. Why do you see anything here?

1561
01:05:11,040 --> 01:05:12,880
Speaker 2: I do think Boston College has the advantage in the

1562
01:05:12,880 --> 01:05:15,520
Speaker 2: trench offensively. They still have the Bailey kid to run

1563
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:17,920
Speaker 2: the ball, and he's you know, at times been effective

1564
01:05:17,920 --> 01:05:20,520
Speaker 2: and then at times this season he's been completely a

1565
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:23,520
Speaker 2: no show for some of these games. But Boston College

1566
01:05:23,520 --> 01:05:25,800
Speaker 2: should have the advantage in the trench offensively against the

1567
01:05:25,800 --> 01:05:29,480
Speaker 2: Cincinnati defense who's outside the top one hundred power success rate.

1568
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:32,160
Speaker 2: So just to clarify, we have our projection set at

1569
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 2: four and a half. I don't think the loss of

1570
01:05:33,760 --> 01:05:36,280
Speaker 2: a Dazio coach from BC is so going to affect

1571
01:05:36,280 --> 01:05:38,919
Speaker 2: the point spread whatsoever. So at four and a half,

1572
01:05:38,960 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 2: I'm definitely looking to take this Boston College team at

1573
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 2: seven and a half, I have no problems with that.

1574
01:05:43,280 --> 01:05:46,120
Speaker 2: What needs to be taken into consideration is that Cincinnati

1575
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,400
Speaker 2: is not a fast paced offense whatsoever. They're eighty third

1576
01:05:48,400 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 2: and seconds per play. But if you look at Boston College,

1577
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:53,280
Speaker 2: Dasio was up tempo, you know, fast, fast, fast, up

1578
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 2: to the line, let's go, let's go. Well he's not

1579
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:57,160
Speaker 2: there anymore. So we don't really know what the offensive

1580
01:05:57,240 --> 01:05:59,080
Speaker 2: speed is going to be for this team, or how

1581
01:05:59,080 --> 01:06:01,280
Speaker 2: it's going to be called, or how they you know,

1582
01:06:01,360 --> 01:06:03,160
Speaker 2: I mean could be I have no clue what's going

1583
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 2: to line up and try to run here or how

1584
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:07,200
Speaker 2: fast they're going to do it. And right now it

1585
01:06:07,200 --> 01:06:09,640
Speaker 2: looks like there's a like an eighty percent chance of

1586
01:06:09,720 --> 01:06:12,920
Speaker 2: heavy raining in this game. Taking all that into consideration,

1587
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 2: you know, the total, I make it exactly where it's

1588
01:06:14,960 --> 01:06:16,680
Speaker 2: at a fifty five and a half. There's some steam

1589
01:06:16,760 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 2: up to fifty six in other places, but I'm going

1590
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:20,200
Speaker 2: to take an under in this game. You want to

1591
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 2: get to fifty seven, fine, I'll take it. I mean,

1592
01:06:22,200 --> 01:06:24,080
Speaker 2: so many key numbers as you can cross, I'll take it.

1593
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:25,800
Speaker 2: But I'm going to take the under in this game

1594
01:06:25,840 --> 01:06:28,400
Speaker 2: because I don't think Boston College's pace and play is

1595
01:06:28,440 --> 01:06:30,480
Speaker 2: going to translate from what they did all season under

1596
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:33,760
Speaker 2: at Dasio into this game. Cincinnati runs a slow pace anyways,

1597
01:06:34,000 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 2: and if they have that backup quarterback in there may

1598
01:06:36,000 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 2: be a little bit more running than there was generally

1599
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:40,760
Speaker 2: with Desmond Ritter. I think it's a slower pace game.

1600
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:42,240
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the under and I'm gonna take Boston

1601
01:06:42,280 --> 01:06:43,040
Speaker 2: College over seven.

1602
01:06:43,120 --> 01:06:44,919
Speaker 1: All right. Then, before we get out of here, last game,

1603
01:06:45,360 --> 01:06:51,240
Speaker 1: another big ten SEC matchup Tennessee and Indiana in the

1604
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:56,840
Speaker 1: Gator Bowl. This game is on Thursday night at seven

1605
01:06:56,880 --> 01:07:02,000
Speaker 1: Eastern in Jacksonville on ESPN. Tennessee one and a half two,

1606
01:07:02,040 --> 01:07:04,200
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite, somewhere under a field

1607
01:07:04,240 --> 01:07:06,840
Speaker 1: goal depending on where you look over under fifty two

1608
01:07:07,240 --> 01:07:09,360
Speaker 1: ish fifty two and a half. It's been on the rise.

1609
01:07:10,200 --> 01:07:10,919
Speaker 1: What do you see here?

1610
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, as far as this game goes, I do like

1611
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:15,680
Speaker 2: Indiana in this game. I'm just waiting on some more

1612
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:18,720
Speaker 2: steam to come in. I make this game essentially a pick.

1613
01:07:18,760 --> 01:07:20,560
Speaker 2: So the one and a half on Tennessee I think

1614
01:07:20,680 --> 01:07:23,200
Speaker 2: is just some steam on brand name alone. I do

1615
01:07:23,280 --> 01:07:24,440
Speaker 2: like Indiana in this game.

1616
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:27,120
Speaker 1: There can Indiana beat a team with a winning record

1617
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,920
Speaker 1: that I feel like they just beat every team that's

1618
01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:32,120
Speaker 1: that's a losing record and can never get over the.

1619
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:34,680
Speaker 2: Because when you get to campus and bloom me to

1620
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:36,480
Speaker 2: they really should be a sign that says, can we

1621
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 2: beat a team with a winning record?

1622
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 1: Yes, that's the question with them. I mean, he's beating

1623
01:07:42,600 --> 01:07:44,000
Speaker 1: Tennessee really that great?

1624
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 2: But well, I mean Tennessee. I mean they definitely have

1625
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:50,200
Speaker 2: a tougher strength to schedule. They rank in the top

1626
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:52,040
Speaker 2: thirty with what they've had to play in the SEC,

1627
01:07:52,080 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 2: which kind of deflates some of the numbers that they have,

1628
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 2: but they have.

1629
01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:56,560
Speaker 1: They close the year strong. You got to get in credit.

1630
01:07:56,560 --> 01:07:57,439
Speaker 1: They close the issue, they.

1631
01:07:57,320 --> 01:08:00,000
Speaker 2: Close you're strong. But Tennessee is really good. It stopped

1632
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:02,640
Speaker 2: passes over twenty and thirty yards. But that's not really

1633
01:08:02,680 --> 01:08:05,280
Speaker 2: Indiana's game. I mean, Indiana doesn't matter if you know

1634
01:08:05,480 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 2: who's in there at quarterback. They've really been a highly

1635
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 2: successful passing attack, but they're not really explosive whatsoever. So

1636
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:12,960
Speaker 2: I think Indiana is going to be able to move

1637
01:08:13,000 --> 01:08:15,640
Speaker 2: the ball I think they're gonna have some success on offense.

1638
01:08:16,320 --> 01:08:19,759
Speaker 2: Tennessee hit and miss depending on who's back there at quarterback.

1639
01:08:19,960 --> 01:08:22,920
Speaker 2: As far as offensively it goes. Both these teams have

1640
01:08:23,000 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 2: a better defensive finishing drives rank and they do offensive

1641
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 2: finishing drives. So I'm not sure how how many points

1642
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 2: was going to be. But you know, I like Indiana

1643
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 2: in this. I just like to see the spread rise

1644
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 2: a little bit more and get subteemed. It's going to

1645
01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:37,160
Speaker 2: be one of those things where I wait to see

1646
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: which way the number goes, and Indiana's going to be

1647
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:40,760
Speaker 2: a buye for me if it gets to three with

1648
01:08:40,800 --> 01:08:41,800
Speaker 2: his projected and pick.

1649
01:08:42,439 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Tennessee. I don't know how good the Tennessee

1650
01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 1: defense is. They think a lot of their numbers are improved.

1651
01:08:47,439 --> 01:08:49,639
Speaker 1: But if you look to you up fifty total points

1652
01:08:49,640 --> 01:08:52,759
Speaker 1: in November. Yeah, but again the games but they played.

1653
01:08:52,800 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 1: They played Kentucky, UA B, Vandy, Dory and Vandys, So

1654
01:08:57,640 --> 01:08:59,160
Speaker 1: I don't know how much I could take from that.

1655
01:08:59,280 --> 01:09:01,439
Speaker 2: It's quite interesting. They're one hundred and fourteenth and stuff

1656
01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,640
Speaker 2: right on defens but they're nineteenth and sac rate, like

1657
01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:06,640
Speaker 2: we can't stop anyone in the backfield. Rushing, but we

1658
01:09:06,640 --> 01:09:07,599
Speaker 2: can get to the quarterback.

1659
01:09:07,960 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, I'm gonna dig more into this game.

1660
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,519
Speaker 1: We'll have something in our rite up. We'll be back

1661
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:18,920
Speaker 1: on Friday. We'll be recording an episode on Thursday. The

1662
01:09:18,920 --> 01:09:21,000
Speaker 1: episode will come out on Friday. For the three bowls

1663
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:24,000
Speaker 1: over the weekend, we'll have updated thoughts on the National Championship.

1664
01:09:24,080 --> 01:09:28,240
Speaker 1: We'll also have updated thoughts on the FCS National Championship

1665
01:09:28,240 --> 01:09:33,000
Speaker 1: between JMU and North Dakota State. We'll even mixing some

1666
01:09:33,120 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 1: updated NFL playoff thoughts for the weekend because next weekend

1667
01:09:38,360 --> 01:09:41,559
Speaker 1: we will be wild Card weekend in the NFL. So

1668
01:09:41,600 --> 01:09:45,040
Speaker 1: thanks for listening, Thanks for joining me. Colin go tagas

1669
01:09:45,080 --> 01:09:46,720
Speaker 1: I guess it doesn't matter. You can say that and

1670
01:09:46,920 --> 01:09:49,320
Speaker 1: take it for how you will on either side. Subscribe,

1671
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,240
Speaker 1: rate review, you know the drill on, subscribe, subscribe to

1672
01:09:52,280 --> 01:09:55,000
Speaker 1: a friend telling enemy. But thanks again for listening. As always,

1673
01:09:55,040 --> 01:09:56,880
Speaker 1: we'll catch you all Ada the cheers, gs out.

1674
01:09:59,200 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 2: Fun time.

1675
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:08,840
Speaker 1: It's the most quantical time all the most quantical time

1676
01:10:10,040 --> 01:10:22,280
Speaker 1: of the If you don't put on the boat, the

1677
01:10:22,320 --> 01:10:23,639
Speaker 1: bowl even exist.