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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree?

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Speaker 3: I've got five dollars? This is a rale leve happy tackle.

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Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life.

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Speaker 3: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be human. My goodness, don't misspeaks,

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Speaker 3: prone the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, very bless. What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Everyone, Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm your host, Chris Raybaun of the Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: I'm joined by one of the top rankers in the game,

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Speaker 2: the odds maker, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 3: Sean, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: It's up?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is always one of my favorite episodes every

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Speaker 4: year because we get to discuss the Frozen Pond that

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Speaker 4: is the RB two RB three position. Although it seems

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Speaker 4: like I had a handful of guys and the RB

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Speaker 4: one tier where I was saying they had some Frozen

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Speaker 4: pondee vibes, but looking forward to it, yeah, I think.

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Speaker 2: Running Back is kind of deep this year, not in

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Speaker 2: the sense that like some of those guys aren't in

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Speaker 2: the Frozen Pond, but that if the Frozen Pond tier

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Speaker 2: starts at like RB you know, six or seven, and

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Speaker 2: it goes through like RB thirty six or something, then

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Speaker 2: you might as well take guys a little bit later on.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of how I've been trended.

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Speaker 1: Are you.

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Speaker 2: Are you kind of doing the same or what's your

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Speaker 2: general running back strategy being in redraft leagues, not beastball

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Speaker 2: but just regular fantasy leagues.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it certainly depends, especially where your draft

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Speaker 4: position is. But this year especially, I'm typically going wide

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Speaker 4: receiver heavy and loading up and I'm okay waiting at

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Speaker 4: running back. Like like you just said, a lot of

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Speaker 4: these backs are pretty viable. Some of these guys what

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Speaker 4: we'll talk about have some concerns, but it's pretty deep

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Speaker 4: and we're taking you know, starting running backs are going

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Speaker 4: around RB forty with Zeke Elliott, so it's pretty deep

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Speaker 4: where you know you don't want to avoid it completely.

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Speaker 4: But I'm willing to wait and then I load up

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Speaker 4: you know, mid rounds, late rounds. I have my upside

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Speaker 4: flyer guys. So at the end of the day, I

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Speaker 4: think wide receiver is much tougher to find later in

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Speaker 4: the drafts, so early on, I'm trying to load up

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Speaker 4: at wide receiver as much as possible, sometimes at the

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Speaker 4: expense of taking a top back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, agreed. I think that's just the way the board

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Speaker 3: breaks down.

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Speaker 2: I think not many of these backs if you're not

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Speaker 2: getting like a McCaffrey, or you know, maybe if you're

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Speaker 2: in the like the six or seven or eight hole,

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Speaker 2: a brief or a bijon. I don't think a lot

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Speaker 2: of these other backs really justify a high pick. Now

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Speaker 2: in bestball, you do want, you know, just to get

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Speaker 2: exposure to different type of bills and whatnot. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: in regular leagues, generally going zero RB or or anchor

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Speaker 2: RB with like one RB early if I can get

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Speaker 2: one of those top three guys. But I think these

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Speaker 2: the guys were going to talk about today are really where,

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Speaker 2: you know, the running back position is going to be

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Speaker 2: won and lost, especially because I think in fastball, you know,

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Speaker 2: the top twelve running backs you know pretty much that's it.

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Speaker 2: In the top five six rounds, you know, the most

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Speaker 2: of these, most of the RB twos and threes are

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Speaker 2: going you know, round six and on. So everyone's going,

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Speaker 2: you know, anchor running back. A lot of people are

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Speaker 2: even going zero RB this year. So we'll get into

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Speaker 2: all these guys. We'll start with the RB two tier.

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Speaker 2: That's the RB thirteen to twenty four, which are Josh Jacobs,

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Speaker 2: James Cook, Joe Mixon, Kennis Walker, Alvin Kamara, and Najie Harris,

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Speaker 2: Aaron Jones, Ramandre Stevenson, David Montgomery, James Connor is a

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Speaker 2: Mere White, and Austin Eckler. Eckler's ADP varies pretty drastically

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Speaker 2: depending on what sight you're on. So, but but we're

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Speaker 2: gonna treat him as a as an RB two here.

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Speaker 2: Let's let's go, let's talk a couple of guys were

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Speaker 2: high on, and then we'll talk somebody were low on

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Speaker 2: in this RB two tiers. So I'll start with you

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Speaker 2: give me a guy you're high on in that in

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Speaker 2: that tier that I just mentioned.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So the first back I'm high on is Dave

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Speaker 4: Montgomery at RB twenty one, ironically probably the first backup

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Speaker 4: running back being taken, and I'm high on him. But

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Speaker 4: this is right around where Monty went last year, and

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Speaker 4: I targeted him pretty heavily and it worked out just fine.

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Speaker 4: He finished RB twelve and basketball points added and ninth

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Speaker 4: and basketball points added per game.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's it's an unique situation.

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Speaker 4: For sure, with you know, the backup performing like an

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Speaker 4: RB one, but this offense is fully capable of supporting

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Speaker 4: two backs. So when you know Jamiir Gibbs is healthy,

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Speaker 4: Monty's probably gonna provide low end RB two value. You know,

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Speaker 4: the Lions had a league high thirty four rush attempts

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Speaker 4: by running backs inside the five yard line last year,

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Speaker 4: and Monty had fifty five percent of those, So he

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Speaker 4: has massive touch on upside. That's gonna help, you know,

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Speaker 4: his weekly four ceiling combo. But you know, if Gibbs

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Speaker 4: were to miss time, he has potential top five upside.

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Speaker 4: And last year, you know, Gibbs missed two games, Monty

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Speaker 4: missed three. So that's that's a normal mix of miss

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Speaker 4: games for both running backs. So I think that we

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Speaker 4: can kind of take their stats from last season at

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Speaker 4: face value. And even if Gibbs does see you know

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Speaker 4: a little bit bigger workload this year, which I do expect,

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Speaker 4: I still love, you know, Monty's four ceiling combo right here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's uh, I think do you think he's like

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Speaker 2: how gamescript dependent do you think he is? I know

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Speaker 2: the Lions are expected to win a lot of games,

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Speaker 2: more than most, but you'd think if he would you

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Speaker 2: kind of like, let's say you're in a regular redraft

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Speaker 2: league where you have to set your line up each week.

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Speaker 2: Would there ever could you ever see a week where

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Speaker 2: he would not make it into your starting lineup, or

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Speaker 2: do you think he'd start every single week?

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Speaker 4: I think he'd start most weeks. I think there was

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Speaker 4: actually a time or two last year where I did

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Speaker 4: have to bench him. I think that's a good problem

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Speaker 4: to have. I think I just have like a Chan

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Speaker 4: or somebody better to use. It wasn't necessarily Monty had

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Speaker 4: a low outlook, but you're right, I think he is

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Speaker 4: gamescript dependent. Typically with the Lions, we kind of know

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Speaker 4: which games he's going to be heavily involved, so I

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Speaker 4: think that certainly helps.

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Speaker 1: But that is a good point.

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Speaker 4: I think you know, when Gibbs is healthy, if the

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Speaker 4: Lions are underdogs, that's certainly going to ding Montgomery. But

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Speaker 4: he's still going to have the touchdown upside as well,

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Speaker 4: so he's still in play as a flex option even

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Speaker 4: worst case scenarios, So that isn't too big of a concern.

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Speaker 4: But again, he's going late enough to where I think

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Speaker 4: it's certainly worth it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have him RB nineteen, so I'm above that

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Speaker 2: that the consensus as well. My first guy is James Cook.

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Speaker 2: I really like James Cook this year. I think there's

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Speaker 2: a couple of things. Number One, you saw the Bills

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Speaker 2: become a lot run heavier when they switched from Dorsey

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Speaker 2: to Joe Brady in Week eleven at offensive coordinator. You know,

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Speaker 2: James Cook is still a very young back, you know,

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Speaker 2: in his he's still in his early twenties, and I

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Speaker 2: think he still has room to grow on the you know,

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Speaker 2: thirteen point nine carries per game that he had last season,

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Speaker 2: I actually have bumped up to fourteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: And that's kind of reflecting just that in the increased

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Speaker 2: team wide rushing workload, you know, with with Brady, but

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Speaker 2: also you know, you had guys like Damien Harris and

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Speaker 2: Latavius Murray, you know, swiping some of some of the

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Speaker 2: goal line carries last year.

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Speaker 3: I think this year.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm not saying he'll you know, score double

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Speaker 2: if your touchdowns or anything that's necessarily, but he is

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Speaker 2: a talented back and I do think he'll get you know,

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Speaker 2: they'll kind of play it more straight up, like he'll

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Speaker 2: be on the field a lot more uh, in those situations.

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Speaker 2: So and he's still a pretty good pass catcher, which

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Speaker 2: you know also could you know there could be some

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Speaker 2: some untapped upside there because you got rid of Stefan Diggs,

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Speaker 2: you got rid of Dave Davis.

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Speaker 3: So you're you're looking at.

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Speaker 2: You know, a very unproven receiving corps. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: after Dalton Kin Kate at a tight end. So I

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Speaker 2: think there's upside to grow in terms of the carries.

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Speaker 2: I think there's upside in terms of the receiving usage.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Love the efficiency, love the age, love the offense.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: The only thing, you know, you obviously don't love Josh

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Speaker 2: Allen taking the a lot of goal on looks. But

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Speaker 2: you know, we kind of talked about it every back

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Speaker 2: after probably Jonathan Taylor, you know, has some concerns, and

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Speaker 2: I think, you know, I much rather invest a you know,

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Speaker 2: RB thirteen fourteen, you know, fourth round, fifth round dish

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Speaker 2: pick on a guy like James Cook, then you know,

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Speaker 2: take a chance at some of these higher running backs

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Speaker 2: going higher, especially in regular redraft leagues.

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Speaker 3: So I really like James Cook.

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Speaker 2: I have him as my RB eleven him and I

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Speaker 2: have him and Derrek Henry essentially tied. You know, when

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Speaker 2: you factor in, you know that Cook is kind of

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Speaker 2: ascending and Henry probably get some some things in terms

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Speaker 2: of efficiency, you know, because of the aide. So I

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Speaker 2: love James Cook heading into twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's my RB twelve.

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Speaker 4: I like his pass catching up set that you mentioned

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Speaker 4: with you know Diggs and gave Davis gone, and he

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Speaker 4: was a talented pass catching back. That's why I thought

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Speaker 4: the Bills drafted him. And he's the rare back where

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Speaker 4: he actually has a positive A dot. He typically sees

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Speaker 4: his targets passed the line of scrimmage, which is rare

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Speaker 4: for running back. So he averages over ten yards of catch.

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Speaker 4: So any increase in passing work I think is going

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Speaker 4: to really elevate him potentially to be like a top

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Speaker 4: ten back this year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like you mentioned the yards per catch, we now

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Speaker 2: have two seasons in for his career. He's had sixty

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Speaker 2: five catches at nine point six yards per catch. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: you know that's starting to become a little bit more

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Speaker 2: predictive here. I have him right around nine yards per catch,

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Speaker 2: which is pretty high for running back. I don't remember

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Speaker 2: many other backs that make it that high in terms

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Speaker 2: of my yards per catch projection. So yeah, love the efficiency,

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Speaker 2: love the and I think room to grow in terms

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Speaker 2: of the volume. Who else do you like in that

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Speaker 2: RB two tier?

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Speaker 4: I got to mention James Connor at RB twenty two.

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Speaker 4: In my RB tiers piece, I dubbed him as, you know,

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Speaker 4: the Tyler Lockett of the running back position, where it

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Speaker 4: seems like every year he's kind of a sleeper pick

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Speaker 4: and he comes through, so always have to throw him

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Speaker 4: out there. We essentially know what we're going to get

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Speaker 4: with him at this point. You know, he had the

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Speaker 4: fifteenth highest best ball points added per game last year,

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Speaker 4: but I was always he ends up missing two to

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Speaker 4: four games, but that's most running back, so it's a

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Speaker 4: knock on him. He's consistent with the miss games at least,

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Speaker 4: but every running back we kind of expect to miss

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Speaker 4: a couple to handful of games. So I'm not worried

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Speaker 4: about that. You know, he is, you know, twenty nine

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Speaker 4: years old. They did bring in a talented backup running

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Speaker 4: back in Trey Benson, but I think when healthy, Connor's

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Speaker 4: still going to be the lead back. And I just

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Speaker 4: like investing in the Cards offense with Kyler Murray actually

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Speaker 4: healthy heading into Week one and bringing in a receiver

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Speaker 4: as talented as Marvin Harrison Junior. So I think there's

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Speaker 4: gonna be some more goal line carries for Connor this year.

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Speaker 4: And as always, you know, he's probably going to out

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Speaker 4: produce his his ADP's He's not that risky at RB

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Speaker 4: twenty two, aside from the predicted you know, handful of

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Speaker 4: miss games.

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Speaker 1: So always like taking a shot on Connor in this range.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's He's tough for me to project because I

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Speaker 2: think the age at twenty nine, in the fact that

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Speaker 2: he has missed so many games, is it kind of

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Speaker 2: caps you know, the the projected carries for him. I

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Speaker 2: have him about one hundred and eighty five. I think

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Speaker 2: he had about two hundred, just over two hundred last year.

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Speaker 2: And and the fact that they did spend a pick

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Speaker 2: on Benson last year. I mean they were just rotating.

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Speaker 2: I mean it was like Demricado, Tony Jones, I mean,

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Speaker 2: who's who of Derneyman, Michael Carter.

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Speaker 3: So you know that there are some some some risk factors.

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Speaker 2: I think I like Connor the most in best Ball,

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Speaker 2: you know, because I think then you have in within

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Speaker 2: his range of outcomes that if he's healthy, he's the

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Speaker 2: you know we'd back, just like it was last year.

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Speaker 2: And you know, if he happens to play you know,

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Speaker 2: sixteen games in Emily Mius one or it's all seventeen,

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Speaker 2: he's gonna have massive webside. But overall, I do think

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Speaker 2: I think he's ranked pretty much pretty correctly. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: he's he is.

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Speaker 4: I will say, he's sort of like at the bottom

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Speaker 4: of this like RB two tier, and then it starts

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Speaker 4: to really open up. So I think the thing with

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Speaker 4: Connor is he's your last shot to really get a

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Speaker 4: guy that we kind of know what to expect, so high,

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Speaker 4: higher floor, despite you know, the potential miss games. And

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Speaker 4: then then I think it really opens up where you

256
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Speaker 4: can get some guys really cheap with a ton of

257
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Speaker 4: upside and things like that. So Connor isn't always part

258
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Speaker 4: of my draft plan, but I think he's a nice

259
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Speaker 4: safety net where if you do miss out on some

260
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Speaker 4: of these guys like a Dave Montgomery, let's say you know,

261
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Speaker 4: Connor is sitting there before things you know, really open

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Speaker 4: up at the running back position.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely. Another guy I'm high on is.

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Speaker 2: Is a mere White and he's gonna be kind of polarizing,

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Speaker 2: but I have him as the RB twenty one in ranks,

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Speaker 2: and that's probably a little bit higher than consensus. And

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Speaker 2: then is I think you saw how this Raiders offense

268
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Speaker 2: kind of shifted, you know, when Antonio peers to go over.

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Speaker 2: They want to be you know more even though they

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Speaker 2: have Adams that they still want to be more of

271
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Speaker 2: a you know, run heavy defense kind of defensive kind

272
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Speaker 2: of team. And I just think Zamir White when you

273
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Speaker 2: look at the talent in this backfield, you have White,

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Speaker 2: you have Alexander Madison, you have a mirror Abdua, you know,

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Speaker 2: I just think Zamir White is the clear most talented

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Speaker 2: guy in that background. I think his you know, on

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Speaker 2: his high end, high range of outcomes, it's like one

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Speaker 2: of like that Josh Jacobs season that Jacobs had a

279
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Speaker 2: couple of years ago. But even in you know, more

280
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Speaker 2: of a floor scenario, I still think Zamir White leads

281
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Speaker 2: this team in uh, you know, touches, leads the team

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Speaker 2: and carries I think he's gonna get you know, probably

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Speaker 2: at least you know, five six touchdowns, if you know,

284
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Speaker 2: has has the upside for double digits essentially Josh Jacobs,

285
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Speaker 2: and if you look at Zamir White, he doesn't have

286
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Speaker 2: a huge sample of routes, but getting targeted on nineteen

287
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Speaker 2: percent of his route so that's not that's actually a

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Speaker 2: smidge above league average, so.

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Speaker 3: You know that's also promising.

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Speaker 2: And I just you know the fact that they let

291
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Speaker 2: Jacobs go and only brought in Alexander Madison really I

292
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Speaker 2: think that kind of show And they've been talking up White,

293
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Speaker 2: so I think that shows that he's going to get

294
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Speaker 2: the first crack at it. And when I look at

295
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Speaker 2: some of the I mean we kind of talked about it,

296
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Speaker 2: there's all these everyone has risk factors here. So it's

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Speaker 2: like I'd rather have like a young, ascending Zamir White

298
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Speaker 2: with you know, not much were not much tread on

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Speaker 2: the tires and a team that wants to run the ball.

300
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Speaker 2: Then you know some of these other guys where I

301
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Speaker 2: just really don't know, you know, like Aaron Jones going

302
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Speaker 2: to you know.

303
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Speaker 3: The Vikings, he's pretty, he's old, and.

304
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Speaker 2: Ty Chandler's there anyway, you know, Swift, great offense, but

305
00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:54,640
Speaker 2: you know, who knows what the work was going to

306
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Speaker 2: be in a three man backfield.

307
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Speaker 3: You know, talked about Connors. He's got guys to He's

308
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:03,360
Speaker 3: got Benson, you know Moss. I like Moss too. We'll

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Speaker 3: get to him in the next year.

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Speaker 2: But you know, he, you know, Chase Brown, There's there's

311
00:16:07,680 --> 00:16:10,680
Speaker 2: a little uncertainty there. So I don't think Zamir White

312
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Speaker 2: really has much more uncertainty than some of these other guys.

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Speaker 2: But I think his you know, he is a very

314
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Speaker 2: good chance that he could get like we're not a

315
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Speaker 2: very good ship, but there's a decent chance that he

316
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Speaker 2: could just get the Josh Jacobs right, And uh, that's

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Speaker 2: something that I want to have exposure to.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, like like Zamir White for the for.

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Speaker 2: The upside, the floor is low, like the worst come right, Yeah,

320
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Speaker 2: maybe Alexander Madison comes back from the dead or something

321
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Speaker 2: like the worst worst case scenario. Or the Raiders are

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Speaker 2: the worst team in the league and and you know

323
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Speaker 2: they're running back. Their running backs get like two touchdowns

324
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Speaker 2: all year. But I think those are I mean, projecting

325
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Speaker 2: it all out. I have him in that RB twenty one.

326
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Speaker 2: There's between RB twenty one and RB twenty four. There's

327
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Speaker 2: only a few tenths of the point, so nothing crazy,

328
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Speaker 2: but I do like have like Zamir White all offseason.

329
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Speaker 2: From what I'm hearing out of camp, He's going to

330
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Speaker 2: be that that feature guy, and that's why they were comfortable,

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Speaker 2: uh went and go Jacobs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we already saw a preview of him without Jacob's

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00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:13,440
Speaker 4: last four games last year, and he was the RB

334
00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:16,879
Speaker 4: eight over that stretch, you know, without Alexander Maddison. But

335
00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:19,240
Speaker 4: just goes to show that he is capable of being

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Speaker 4: a lead back.

337
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Madison could kind of just take this Amre

338
00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 2: White role that like behind Jacob. So that's what I'm hoping.

339
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,080
Speaker 2: I think I'll get a little more than that. But

340
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Speaker 2: and we also, you know, do they keep a mirror

341
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,399
Speaker 2: Adua another year? If not, you know that there are

342
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,639
Speaker 2: some pass down snaps that open up for both of

343
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 2: those guys. So yeah, I think there's more. There's more,

344
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 2: more reasons for upside and downside with White, which is

345
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Speaker 2: somewhat rare among these running backs in this range. But

346
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Speaker 2: what about someone that you're fading in that RB thirteen

347
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 2: to twenty four ADP range.

348
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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I think Naji Harris are Be seventeen is

349
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,640
Speaker 4: a bit too high. You know, we've kind of seen

350
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Speaker 4: this trend with Nause where once again he he had

351
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:11,200
Speaker 4: sort of a slow first half of the season, but

352
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Speaker 4: then came on late. You know, he had two straight

353
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,000
Speaker 4: one hundred plus yard rushing games closed the season. I

354
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,119
Speaker 4: was saying he looked like Derrick Henry. But you know,

355
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, he finished thirty first

356
00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,160
Speaker 4: and best ball points added per game, and once again

357
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:28,600
Speaker 4: he benefited from playing seventeen games. So he has yet

358
00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 4: to miss a single game in three seasons so far.

359
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 4: So he's certainly proven to be a durable back. But again,

360
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,399
Speaker 4: no back is safe. We thought that about Jonathan Taylor,

361
00:18:39,200 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 4: who had never missed even a practice his entire life,

362
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 4: and then you know last year he missed a handful

363
00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 4: of games. So I don't think nause is impossible to

364
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,040
Speaker 4: get injured. So I think, you know, he's due for

365
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:54,760
Speaker 4: some injury luck. And there's some concerns with you know,

366
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 4: new head coach Arthur Smith, who's been known to lean

367
00:18:58,560 --> 00:19:00,920
Speaker 4: on you know, running back by committe, where Jalen Warren

368
00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,560
Speaker 4: will will continue to factor in, maybe more so this year,

369
00:19:04,600 --> 00:19:07,080
Speaker 4: who knows, but in this range you don't want to

370
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 4: back where you're kind of uncertain about his workload and

371
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 4: he kind of needs a workload and to stay healthy

372
00:19:13,640 --> 00:19:17,159
Speaker 4: to really produce at this you know, RB seventeen range.

373
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Speaker 1: So that's why out of these guys, you.

374
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 4: Know, certainly everybody has a question mark here, but I

375
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 4: think he has the most question marks. And I've typically

376
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 4: survived fading him and just taking maybe Jalen Warren later

377
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,080
Speaker 4: on in the draft. So yeah, I'm going to continue

378
00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,159
Speaker 4: doing that this year. I don't think he's going to

379
00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 4: be able to, you know, OutKick this this adb by

380
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 4: too much.

381
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:43,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, given Arthur Smith, like the Bejon Shenanigans,

382
00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,040
Speaker 2: it's the four's another guy. This is like a pure

383
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 2: best ball pick or you know, I mean, I guess

384
00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 2: if you're going zero RB and he and he falls,

385
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:54,119
Speaker 2: I'm fine with that as well. But I definitely I

386
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:56,479
Speaker 2: want to be underweight, but I do I'm not going

387
00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 2: to fade him completely because I do think the one thing,

388
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 2: you know, we've talked about is he's.

389
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 3: Probably the most Derrick Henry like running back.

390
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,800
Speaker 2: And Arthur Smith had Derrick Henry at one point, and

391
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,639
Speaker 2: so I think it was like Henry and Dion Lewis,

392
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,280
Speaker 2: so like Warren would be the Deon Lewis who just

393
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:19,280
Speaker 2: like gets forgotten about again, if if Harris plays like

394
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: Derek Henry on his you know, ceiling range of outcomes,

395
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,480
Speaker 2: so that's the case for him in basketball. But I

396
00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 2: agree when you look at you know, the range of

397
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 2: outcomes ceiling versus floor, I think there's more floor scenarios.

398
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 2: You also, there's there's even a chance, you know, the

399
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 2: quarterbacks take a little bit more, you know, rushing a

400
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 2: few rushing attempts away from from the running back because

401
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: the Steelers, you know, non quarterback rushing attempts last year

402
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 2: was pretty high, twenty four point six per game, and

403
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: that's you know, for a truck mediocre team with a

404
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: below average quarterback, that's a lot of That is a

405
00:20:56,440 --> 00:21:00,320
Speaker 2: lot of carries. So you know, I think that's gonna

406
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 2: regress a little bit. So there might be a a

407
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: little less, little fewer carries to go around. And you know,

408
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 2: we don't know exactly what Arthur Smith, you know, is

409
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,560
Speaker 2: gonna how he's gonna view Jalen Warren versus Harris compared

410
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 2: to you know, we had multiple coordinators last year. So

411
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: when we're looking at the you know, Harris average fifteen carries,

412
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 2: Warren average eight point eight and three quarters per game,

413
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,199
Speaker 2: but like that was over two different coordinators last year,

414
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 2: so now you've got and now you got another coordinator,

415
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:28,639
Speaker 2: So there's a lot of uncertainty.

416
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 3: Low floor.

417
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 2: I think Harris is another guy you want him in

418
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 2: best Ball, but probably you're probably paying a premium draft them.

419
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: You know, RB seventeen eighteen in in redraft.

420
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: For me.

421
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,919
Speaker 3: I am low on Eckler.

422
00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 2: You know, I mentioned that, you know, he's his ADP

423
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:53,200
Speaker 2: varies widely by sight, but RB twenty four I think

424
00:21:53,280 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 2: is way too high.

425
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 3: I have him in the low thirties. Now.

426
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 2: I think there is kind of some question marks as

427
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:03,440
Speaker 2: to you know, besides just how much is he going

428
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 2: to decline more because he declined a lot last year,

429
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 2: you know, entering you know in his age twenty eight season.

430
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 2: Now he's gonna be this is his age twenty nine season,

431
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: so you know, you could see another drop off. You

432
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 2: don't know exactly how the split is gonna shake out

433
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 2: with between him and Brian Robinson because you got a

434
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 2: new coaching staff. Cliff Kingsbury, uh is the coordinator, so

435
00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 2: you know he Kingsbury has used some running back by

436
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 2: committees where it's been like Kenny and Drake and Chase

437
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 2: Edmonds and and then I think connoran and and Edmunds

438
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 2: as well. So, uh, there's there's some uncertainty there with

439
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 2: Eck where there's some there's decline. Uh, just a few

440
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: different issues. And also I don't even if he ends

441
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 2: up running route on a similar number of dropbacks. Last

442
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 2: year he ran around fifty nine percent of the Charger

443
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: dropbacks per game, it's probably gonna be hard to match

444
00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:01,120
Speaker 2: on on the the Commanders in west Ian Robinson really

445
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 2: takes a back seat because Robinson was getting about thirty

446
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,680
Speaker 2: three percent per game last year and Antonio Gibson was

447
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:12,959
Speaker 2: at about forty six percent. So you know, Equer might

448
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: be squeezed in terms of you know, the routes. We

449
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: don't know where the carriers are gonna end up. So yeah,

450
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 2: I think he should be going, you know, definitely outside

451
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 2: the top thirty. And especially because he's gonna decline and

452
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 2: he's in this potential likely committee and might even be

453
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 2: the get the fewest, probably gets the fewest touches of

454
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 2: the two.

455
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, just not really failing him.

456
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: I know the name is big, Yeah, but again we

457
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 2: talked about these guys are the guys that tend to

458
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 2: be overvalue these running backs switching teams, and there's there's

459
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 2: a ton of them. I think there's us of about

460
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 2: twelve in the top thirty six this year is usually

461
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 2: an average of about four to five per year, so

462
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:58,239
Speaker 2: there could be some more landmines than usual, even though

463
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,360
Speaker 2: this running back class looks deep and I think where he's,

464
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,880
Speaker 2: you know, top of that list. All right, let's see,

465
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:10,000
Speaker 2: all right, jump to the next year, and that would

466
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 2: be the RB twenty five to thirty six. DeAndre Swift,

467
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 2: Raheem Mostert, Jonathan Brooks, the rookie for the Panthers, Jayalen Warren,

468
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:23,439
Speaker 2: Zach Moss, Tony Pollard, Javonte Williams, Taj Spears, Nick Chubb,

469
00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:30,160
Speaker 2: Brian Robinson, Devin Singletary, and Gus Edwards.

470
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: Who's someone you like in that tier?

471
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is this is an interesting tier. We don't

472
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 4: even know if like Jonathan Brooks or Nick Chubble be

473
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 4: playing in week one. So I'm gonna I'm gonna go

474
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 4: with Zach Moss at RB twenty nine. And you know,

475
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 4: he sort of fits the bill for a frozen Pond

476
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 4: label from me. You know, he's coming off a career year,

477
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 4: sort of out of nowhere, where he took advantage of

478
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor missing a few games looked excellent and the

479
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 4: Colts offense. Now he's on a different team and said

480
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 4: to be the Week one starter. I do think, you know,

481
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 4: he's a safe bet to take over the Joe Mixon role,

482
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 4: which should you know, provide high end RB two value.

483
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 4: But there are some concerns with you know, backup Chase

484
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 4: Brown being a serious threat to just his workload or

485
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 4: potentially even lead rogging him as you know, the lead back.

486
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: So you know, I think the most likely outcome is

487
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: Moss hangs on to the lead job offers low end

488
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 4: RB two value, but he could offer more. He could

489
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 4: offer low end RB one value. In this offense, they

490
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 4: could set him up for you know, ten plus rushing touchdowns,

491
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 4: and you know, if Brown were ever miss time.

492
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: I think he could be an RB one.

493
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 4: So he's he's a back in this range that I

494
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 4: think has a fairly safe floor and a pretty high

495
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 4: ceiling as well. So at this range he can't be

496
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 4: too picky. A lot of these guys I think have

497
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 4: frozen pond vibes. But since he's going all the way

498
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 4: down to RB twenty nine, I don't think there's that

499
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 4: much risk there. I think, if anything, there's way more

500
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 4: upside here the downside. So I do like the idea

501
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 4: of getting Moss just inside the top thirty.

502
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, and as far as.

503
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 2: Guys switching teams, you know that this is where you

504
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: start seeing guys who switched teams equaling and even being

505
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,639
Speaker 2: more valuable than guys on the same team over the

506
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: past decade. So this, this is the range where it

507
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 2: makes more sense to kind of take some shots here.

508
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 3: And I love Moss as well.

509
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,719
Speaker 2: I think he does kind of slide into that mixing

510
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 2: role with Brown continuing to be more of a change

511
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:34,880
Speaker 2: of pace. Now, like you said, there is a risk,

512
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 2: but there's a risk with everybody. I mean we're talking

513
00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 2: about committee guys in this range. But I do think

514
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 2: Moss has that mixing upside and that that would be

515
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 2: a top you know fifteen back over the past you know,

516
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 2: three three years in that offense.

517
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like Moss as well. I thought he

518
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 3: showed out very well, you know, in that starters.

519
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: Role for the Indianapolis Colts as well, So we we've

520
00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: kind of seen it with him where he's put up

521
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: you know, top five numbers, you know, in a featured

522
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 2: role before, so I think at RB twenty nine, I

523
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: completely agree.

524
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: I think the the price is right for him.

525
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: One other guy I'm high on in that range Devin Singletary.

526
00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 2: You know, I have him as as a top thirty

527
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 2: running back and it's because you know, it's not sexy,

528
00:27:21,600 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 2: and the offense is one of the probably going to

529
00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 2: be one of the worst in the league in the

530
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: New York Giants, although that could change if Jones is

531
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 2: healthy and neighbors you know, plays well and the old

532
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 2: line makes them incredible, incorpactible improvement. But as it stands,

533
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:42,200
Speaker 2: one of the worst offenses. However, behind Singletary, Tyrone Tracy,

534
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 2: a Day three pick this year, Eric Gray, day three

535
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: pick last year, Jayshawn Corbin just practice squad fodder and.

536
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's about it on that depth chart.

537
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 2: So you know, you had Joe Shane, the GM for

538
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 2: the Giants, say you know, we're not going to pay

539
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones forty million and then have him hand off

540
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 2: to a like a twelve million dollar back or whatever

541
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: Saquon was fetching on the open market. So I think

542
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 2: Singletary is gonna be there. Poor man Saquon I'm not

543
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 2: saying he gets he puts up exactly the same amount

544
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 2: of production, but I think he'll actually get a fairly

545
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 2: similar snap count to Saquon Barkley because there's only day

546
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 2: three picks behind him. And we saw Singletary be in

547
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: an every down, every snap player for the Houston Texans

548
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 2: and be quite productive down the stretch last season when

549
00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 2: Damian Pierce got bent.

550
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 3: So this is not out of the out of the ordinary.

551
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 2: This is it does have some precedent here, and Devin

552
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,480
Speaker 2: Singletary not much where just over a thousand career touches

553
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: and entering his age twenty seven season show he should

554
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: have like one more year before he starts entering his

555
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: decline face so not sexy, But compared to all these

556
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 2: other guys who are in these committees, I think there's

557
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 2: some upside just because Singletary could be, you know, a

558
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 2: eighty five eighty five percent snap guy, even in a

559
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 2: bad offense that's still valuable at running back where volume

560
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 2: is so important.

561
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: All Right, Who's who else do you like in this range?

562
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's tough a lot of these guys I

563
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 4: feel like I'm avoiding. But another guy like, is DeAndre

564
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 4: Swift at RB twenty five. You know, he's similar to

565
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 4: Moss and these other backs in this tier where he

566
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 4: has a lot of you know, frozen pond red flags.

567
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 4: He's He's going to a new team that already has

568
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 4: two solid backups and Khlil Herbert and Roshan Johnson. I

569
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 4: still think Clelil Herbert is really really good and could

570
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 4: be a threat to Swift, even Roshan Johnson in the

571
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 4: passing game. But they did offer him three years twenty

572
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 4: four million, But again he could be this year is

573
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 4: Miles Sanders where he gets paid to go back up.

574
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:51,720
Speaker 1: You know some of these younger guys.

575
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 4: You know, we saw that last year at Sanders leaving

576
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,760
Speaker 4: the Eagles and really struggling with the Panthers. So that's

577
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 4: you know, certainly Swift's floor here. But I do think

578
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:02,719
Speaker 4: he has a solid chance to hang on his lead

579
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 4: back win healthy. I like investing in this Bears offense,

580
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: you know, just giving. You know, Kate Williams, the really

581
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: good wide receiver trio they put together, so should provide

582
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 4: him more goal one opportunities than he got in Philly.

583
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 4: You know, he had to concede quite a few short

584
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 4: yardage scores to Jalen Hurts. So you know, I think

585
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 4: this is a situation where he could, you know, score

586
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 4: eight plus touchdowns let's say total. So he's a guy

587
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: I wouldn't reach forward necessarily, but if he does fall

588
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 4: outside of the top twenty four, he is sort of

589
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 4: in this range where it's like he probably does have

590
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 4: a higher floor than I'm giving him credit for. So

591
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 4: I'd be willing to take him. But you know, there

592
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 4: are certains of red flags, but that goes with everybody

593
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 4: sort of.

594
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: In this range.

595
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, I have swift RB twenty three. You

596
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 2: know it's this, This is one of the better offenses now,

597
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: I think in the league. I think the offensive line

598
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 2: a lot better. And I think also you got to

599
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 2: kind of read read between the lines. I mean, this

600
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 2: is you know, he is a guy who switched teams,

601
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 2: but you know, going at the range he's going at,

602
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: you know, in the you know, out outside the top

603
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 2: twenty four. Uh, you got to kind of look at

604
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 2: it and say, okay, Well, Shane Waldron comes over from Seattle.

605
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 3: You know they keep Eberfu.

606
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:24,959
Speaker 2: Shane Waldron comes over and they already have Khalil Herbert

607
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 2: Rashawn Johnson, who's you know, was a rookie last year,

608
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 2: and uh, you know it probably could have resigned forman

609
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: if they really wanted to. But you know, Shane Waldron

610
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: went in and he came in and he's like, nah,

611
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: I want I want us to go get DeAndre Swift,

612
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: and so they so it seems like Swift is you know,

613
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 2: they do have a plan, and they you know, they

614
00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 2: do view Swift as significantly as an upgrade over Herbert

615
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 2: and and Johnson, which I think he is because I

616
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 2: think both of those guys are a little bit more

617
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 2: one dimensional, Herbert as an early down guy and and

618
00:31:56,800 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: then Johnson as a passing down back. So you know,

619
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 2: given the offense, Yeah, I've been I've been kind of

620
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 2: saying the same thing. Like Swift's ADP, no one really

621
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: wants to draft him, so he just keeps kind of

622
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,800
Speaker 2: like creeping into the mid to late twenties, which is like,

623
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 2: all right, fine, probably where.

624
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: He should go. If I'm being honest, yeah I would.

625
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 4: I wouldn't want to take him necessarily, you know, around

626
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 4: RB twenty one, where I have him ranked, but certainly

627
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 4: like the fact that his ADP has been dropping, definitely

628
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 4: much more comfortable taking him here.

629
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, my two guys are Moss and Singletary,

630
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:31,880
Speaker 2: So you know, Moss is a guy we both love.

631
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 3: What about who are you low on in this RB

632
00:32:37,800 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 3: three ADP range.

633
00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 4: Well, we'll probably get to pick on the same guy here,

634
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:46,640
Speaker 4: but I'm going Javonte Williams at RB thirty one. You know,

635
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 4: he he's coming off a down season, was fortieth and

636
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 4: best ball points out of per game, you know, average

637
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 4: a career low three point six yards per rushing attempt.

638
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 4: But you know he should bounce back. Last year he

639
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 4: was coming back from base yell tear, so I was

640
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 4: down on him to begin with. But still, this this

641
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 4: situation that just doesn't offer much upside in terms of

642
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 4: ceiling because the offense is probably gonna struggle with you know,

643
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 4: BOONEX potentially starting Week one and all season from there,

644
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:19,960
Speaker 4: so they could struggle to get to the red zone.

645
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 4: So you know, he's not really a high touchdown kind

646
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 4: of guy. They also have a handful of other backs

647
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,480
Speaker 4: that will compete for touches and could potentially leap frog

648
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 4: him at any point, so he's probably gonna you know,

649
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 4: not see much usage in the passing in to really

650
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 4: make up for any lack of efficiency. So he's just

651
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 4: a guy that he probably won't burn you if you

652
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 4: do draft him here, because he is going to be

653
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 4: the Week one starter. But I just don't think there

654
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 4: is a high enough ceiling just given the red flags.

655
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 4: Kind of the guy that you mentioned earlier, Devin Singletary

656
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,640
Speaker 4: probably has a higher floor ceiling combo than Javonte Williams,

657
00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 4: and you can get him, you know, around later, so

658
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 4: that I'm kind of with that where all these guys,

659
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 4: you know, it's they're not sexy picks, but you could

660
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 4: take a Javante caliber type back a little bit later,

661
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:10,479
Speaker 4: which is why I'm avoiding him here. I just don't

662
00:34:10,520 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 4: think he offers enough upside or the Florida take him

663
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 4: here and then honestly, just this part in the draft,

664
00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 4: I'm probably attacking other positions. I think once we get

665
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 4: outside of the top forty is when we have backs

666
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 4: I think are offering a ton of values. So he's

667
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,399
Speaker 4: just kind of in a dead zone for me where

668
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 4: don't like his force in the combo or where he's

669
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 4: going in the draft either.

670
00:34:31,080 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, Davante is one of those guys as it stands,

671
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 2: he's one of the few guys I'm just I'm just

672
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: complete fading as of now.

673
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 3: Me I don't I don't know. Maybe something will happen

674
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 3: to change my mind.

675
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:44,919
Speaker 2: But there's just so many red flags with him, even

676
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 2: when you factor in the fact that he should be

677
00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 2: he should bounce back a little because he's a year

678
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 2: removed from his injury. But you know, the last you know,

679
00:34:55,719 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 2: from week eight on, he did not top three point

680
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: eight yards per car three point nine yards per carry,

681
00:35:03,680 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 2: so he did not hit four yards per carry after

682
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:06,439
Speaker 2: week seven.

683
00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 3: So and he and he and he had a ton

684
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 3: of carries, uh, you know, down.

685
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 2: The stretch, and still you know, just was not able

686
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 2: to you know, show any explosiveness. And then you know,

687
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: we I think Sean Payton started to catch on and

688
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 2: so as the season progressed, his workload started to decrease,

689
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 2: and even even in the passing game. So you know,

690
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 2: the last four weeks, you know, he averaged a twenty

691
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: eight percent route rate compared to thirty two percent before that.

692
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,160
Speaker 3: So he's thirty is not high enough for a lead back.

693
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 2: I think his you know, his yard targets per route

694
00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: was over thirty percent, which is probably going to regress

695
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,880
Speaker 2: just because that's very very high. Uh, you know, the

696
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: yards after the contact just was not there. So even

697
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,760
Speaker 2: even factoring in that, yeah, there's gonna be some regression.

698
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 2: He's gonna bounce back in certain certain facets. I think

699
00:35:57,760 --> 00:36:01,919
Speaker 2: the the usage when you factor in the Javonte McLoughlin

700
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 2: is is you know, ascending. You know, they might be

701
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: looking to get him more involved now the the full

702
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 2: off season, he'll learn more of the protections and all

703
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:13,440
Speaker 2: that stuff. And then not only do you have p

704
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: Ryan still there who probably still continues to play hurry up,

705
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:22,080
Speaker 2: you know, third down, but they drafted Audric Estime, who

706
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:24,279
Speaker 2: you know at of Notre Dame, who was you know,

707
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,439
Speaker 2: a kind of the most similar to Williams. His skill

708
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 2: set probably overlaps with Williams the most as like a

709
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 2: bigger early down guy. I know he did miss OTA's

710
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: with an injury, but he avoided the pup with so

711
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:39,120
Speaker 2: he could be a fact. So now you're talking about

712
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 2: four guys, uh that could potentially be a factor and

713
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 2: the guy and they didn't have much draft capital and

714
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,080
Speaker 2: yet they they spent a you know, a mid round

715
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 2: pick on estimate, so that that combined with you know,

716
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 2: the decrease in workload for Williams as the season war on,

717
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,240
Speaker 2: combined with the decrease in efficiency just a just a big.

718
00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 3: Red flag for me.

719
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 2: Uh for william So, I don't know if he you know,

720
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 2: I don't see how he gets to like that art

721
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: like a top top ten, top five upside, Like, you know,

722
00:37:08,200 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 2: there's just it's going to be probably a three man

723
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 2: backfield regardless of what's going on. And you know, if

724
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: there's even like a small chance if he continues to

725
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: struggle that like later in the year, Estimate, you know,

726
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,760
Speaker 2: it might be might jump him, and Williams would probably

727
00:37:24,760 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 2: be inactive.

728
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: In that in that scenario.

729
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 2: You know, if if Estimate were to jump him as

730
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,880
Speaker 2: the as like an early down guy, so and then

731
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 2: Mcaloffa could jump him as well.

732
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:37,279
Speaker 3: So yep, just just not not the guy that I want.

733
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 2: Since since we both had the same guy, I'll just

734
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:43,360
Speaker 2: quickly mentioned another guy that I'm lower on than Adp

735
00:37:43,480 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 2: and that's uh Nick Chubb. Well really, Jonathan Brooks and

736
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 2: Nick Chubb. I think they're going a little bit too high,

737
00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 2: you know. I when I project guys coming off a CLS,

738
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 2: what I do is I have I created a database

739
00:37:59,000 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 2: of every CL injury for each position, and for running backs,

740
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 2: it tend tends to take about eleven months, you know,

741
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 2: from from the time you got hurt to the time

742
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: you get back. However, with Chubb, it wasn't just the ACL,

743
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 2: it was you.

744
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,840
Speaker 3: Know, the a CL, it was the the.

745
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 2: PCL, the MCL, the meniscus, and he had to have

746
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: a second surgery in November, even though he got hurt,

747
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 2: you know, in in September. So I think there's a

748
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 2: very good chance that Chubb either misses time or is

749
00:38:32,719 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 2: very like well below you know, one hundred percent for

750
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 2: you know, the first third of the season, if not

751
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: more so. I have Chubb projected for about eleven ten

752
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 2: and a half games, and I think most most people

753
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 2: are projecting him for a few more than that. But

754
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 2: he also got a factor and he could get hurt again.

755
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 2: And he's twenty nine now, so it's like in between

756
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 2: this injury, it was like he went from peak age

757
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:00,279
Speaker 2: to you know, last year he was twenty eight and

758
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 2: he gets hurt, and now he's coming back at twenty nine.

759
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 2: So it's like even some of the efficiency that we've

760
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,440
Speaker 2: seen in the past. There are questions as to you

761
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 2: know how much of that still carries over. So I'm

762
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,040
Speaker 2: curiou where do you have Nick Chubb? Like just an

763
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 2: overall I know, I know I'm pretty low on him

764
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 2: because I remember I think our dev team took we

765
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: had like an error in our spreadsheet because I was

766
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 2: so low on Nick Chubb.

767
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 3: But yeah, I have him outside the top forty. Where

768
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 3: do you have them?

769
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:27,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm a bit.

770
00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 4: Higher RB thirty, but that's because I'm projecting him for

771
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 4: thirteen games. Again, he's just a wide range of outcomes.

772
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:37,400
Speaker 4: It's not like I'm drafting him at RB thirty. I

773
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 4: do agree, like he could wind up, you know, messing

774
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 4: the first six games of the season easily, right, Like

775
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 4: we don't know yet, so I was just being cautious

776
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 4: with that. But yeah, he's somebody that's probably gonna go

777
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 4: up or down quite a bit just based on the

778
00:39:52,120 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 4: next few weeks. And it's sad to say, but I'm

779
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 4: projected him for fewer than five yards per rush attempt

780
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:00,799
Speaker 4: for the first time all the down to four point

781
00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 4: five to five, so that that that hurts him as well.

782
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 4: But he is certainly a guy that I'm I'm avoiding.

783
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 4: And Jonathan Brooks as well. I think Brooks could potentially

784
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,960
Speaker 4: miss week one or more, so I've been very careful

785
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 4: with him. But yeah, in this range, I'm not targeting

786
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 4: guys that I think might miss week one like these

787
00:40:18,719 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 4: two guys.

788
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, as it stands, these guys are going way

789
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 2: too high. Like if you're just kind of projecting, I

790
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 2: think the median of you know, how many games are

791
00:40:27,040 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 2: gonna miss and a dip in efficiency and all that stuff.

792
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 2: I think there, you know, Brooks and Shrubb are going

793
00:40:32,160 --> 00:40:35,239
Speaker 2: too high. Now if we get some positive news, not

794
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 2: could change. But that's all speculation. So we're kind of

795
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 2: interesting when we're talking you know, ADPs and values. You know,

796
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:44,880
Speaker 2: we're still going to focus on median first. You know, obviously,

797
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 2: you know, Chubb has a massive ceiling if he were

798
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: to play most of the season, and Brooks is talented

799
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 2: as well. But yeah, I think just based on where

800
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 2: they're going, they should be going you know, probably six

801
00:40:58,440 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: to eight picks.

802
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 3: Well, we're in their position.

803
00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 1: All right.

804
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:05,759
Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about some weight round guys that we like,

805
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 2: but before we do, I just wanted to mention that

806
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 2: fantasywabs dot Com is where all of our season one.

807
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,600
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808
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809
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810
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811
00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:28,560
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812
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814
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00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:56,759
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820
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk some late round guys, you know,

821
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,080
Speaker 2: outside the top thirty six.

822
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 3: Who do you like in that range? It could be

823
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 3: you know, right outside, or it could be down the list.

824
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is where my running back up side

825
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,800
Speaker 4: rankings really come into play, because once you get outside

826
00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 4: the top thirty six, you're you're really just dealing with

827
00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,520
Speaker 4: backup running backs who you know their end of season value.

828
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 4: It's going to come down to how many games the

829
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,320
Speaker 4: starting running back misses. So I like to get backs

830
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 4: that potentially provide RB one value if that were to happen,

831
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:36,160
Speaker 4: and a bonus if they could potentially provide flex value

832
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 4: even when the starting running back is healthy. Zach Charbonay

833
00:42:41,000 --> 00:42:44,080
Speaker 4: is one of my favorite guys again this year. He's

834
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 4: RB forty two. You know, last year I was high

835
00:42:47,480 --> 00:42:49,399
Speaker 4: on him. I targeted him a ton in this range.

836
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 4: I'm still high on him as a talent, but it's

837
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 4: it's clear that this is Kenneth Walker's backfield when healthy.

838
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 4: But you know, Charbonnay should still see five to ten

839
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 4: touches a game even when Walker is healthy, and I

840
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 4: think he's talented enough to offer flex value. If you're

841
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:07,840
Speaker 4: in like an emergency, like you know, you got a

842
00:43:07,920 --> 00:43:10,720
Speaker 4: bunch of injury guys, it's a heavy bye week, sharbon

843
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:12,919
Speaker 4: Ay can fill in as like an RB three flex type.

844
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 4: But if you know Walker were at a miss time,

845
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 4: I think sharbon A would be you know, a low

846
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,360
Speaker 4: end RB one type of value. So I think that

847
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 4: this is sort of the sweet spot taking it back

848
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 4: like that, and I think an even better example of

849
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 4: him this year would be like Korum at RB forty one.

850
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 4: Really it's a similar situation to charbon Ay last season.

851
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:38,319
Speaker 4: But you know, Korum's you know, a better prospect than

852
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 4: Kiren was, So I think it is possible that Korum

853
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 4: could have a larger role even when Kiren's you know,

854
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:49,800
Speaker 4: active compared to the sharbon a walker backfield, and just

855
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 4: given Kiren's kind of been dealing with foot injury this offseason,

856
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:56,399
Speaker 4: I think Korum really is kind of the poster child

857
00:43:56,480 --> 00:44:00,040
Speaker 4: for what my RB Upside rankings is all about. So

858
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 4: love him there and then just going like, way way

859
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:07,800
Speaker 4: way later, this is outside the top seventy where we

860
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 4: really just you know, rolling the dice. I think Trey

861
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:14,840
Speaker 4: Sermon is interesting at RB seventy two. You know, he

862
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 4: he is shaping up to be the number two back

863
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 4: and Indie and he's one of those backs he's gonna

864
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 4: offer zero value zero as long as Jonathan Taylor is healthy,

865
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 4: but he could take over the Zach Moss role where

866
00:44:28,520 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 4: you know, if jt were to ever miss time, you know,

867
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 4: he could offer RB two value. And he's kind of

868
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:37,360
Speaker 4: similar to Zach Moss in a prospect and sort of

869
00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 4: how his career has gone. I mean, Sermon was a

870
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 4: third round pick, Moss is a third round pick. They

871
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,879
Speaker 4: didn't really pan out with the teams that drafted them,

872
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 4: but once they got to the Colts, they were extremely efficient.

873
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 4: Sermon did have thirty five carries last year for them,

874
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 4: average four point six yards per attempt. He's exactly a

875
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,839
Speaker 4: year younger than Moss, so he's literally just walking into

876
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 4: this same position Moss.

877
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 1: Had last year.

878
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:05,080
Speaker 4: So you know, he's one of those guys where he

879
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,440
Speaker 4: needs j T to miss time, but if he does,

880
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:08,880
Speaker 4: he could offer RB two values.

881
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 1: So he's certainly worth a flyer here.

882
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 4: There's really no risk in taking a guy like Sermon,

883
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:16,520
Speaker 4: but he's he's potentially, you know, one injury away of

884
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:20,880
Speaker 4: offering RB two values. So I love his upside profile

885
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 4: in this this ADP range of RB seventy two.

886
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:26,280
Speaker 3: Who that's interesting.

887
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 2: I don't think I've heard anyone talking about Trey Surman,

888
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: and I did see the note though that he was

889
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,719
Speaker 2: clearly like the next man up for carries in camp

890
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 2: so far, you know, behind Taylor and.

891
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:39,839
Speaker 3: Trying to pass him down.

892
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, just trying to catch the next Zach Moss in

893
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 4: the bottle, you know, there's probably a five percent chance

894
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 4: this hits, but I'm rolling willing to roll that dice.

895
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, No, totally agree, and I'm I'm right

896
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:54,840
Speaker 2: with you on wake Corum. I think you know, he

897
00:45:54,920 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 2: was a guy I've been talking about for a while.

898
00:45:56,400 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: I just think you take Tyron Williams's you know, thatcher

899
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 2: and the fact that he's never played a full season

900
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,160
Speaker 2: and he's kind of maxed out last year in terms

901
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: of the carries, and then you take you know, the

902
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:11,799
Speaker 2: how good the offense is. I think there's a lot

903
00:46:11,840 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 2: of upside with Korum as well. I'll mention a few

904
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 2: more guys, Ezekiel Elliott, if you can get him like

905
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: around RB forty, I think there's still enough upside there.

906
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:23,799
Speaker 3: It's gonna be ugly because he's old.

907
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,400
Speaker 2: He's probably gonna be a two down guy, but he

908
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,920
Speaker 2: has double digit touchdown upside. You know, think of a

909
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:32,560
Speaker 2: guy like Gus Edwards last year where you know, you know,

910
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,799
Speaker 2: you don't need that many carries to kind of get

911
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 2: you know, ten twelve touchdowns if you're Zeke Elliott in

912
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 2: this this cowboy offense. So I've been I've been taking

913
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 2: some shares, but as he starts creeping up into the

914
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 2: mid thirties. That's where I don't really want, you know,

915
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 2: much too much of him. I think there are other

916
00:46:51,160 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 2: guys than that have more upside her in her younger

917
00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 2: and you know, have more three down upside. But at

918
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 2: RB forty or below, zeke El, I'll take some shares.

919
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 3: And then some rookies.

920
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 1: I like that.

921
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 2: I think, you know, I'm curious that actually as to

922
00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: where these guys are in your running back up side

923
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 2: Ray Davis and Buffalo usually goes around RB fifty nine,

924
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:15,799
Speaker 2: I think he'll end up being at the RB two

925
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 2: and what's become a very run heavy Buffalo team. We

926
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 2: talked on the last part about Braylen Allen. I think

927
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,600
Speaker 2: he has the inside track to be in number the

928
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 2: RB two behind Breis Hall. And I think you know,

929
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 2: there's also you know, like the Giants backfield, Tyrone Tracy

930
00:47:36,040 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 2: was a guy who was drafted in the in the

931
00:47:39,480 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 2: fifth round.

932
00:47:40,239 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: But I mean we talked about it.

933
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 2: There's nothing behind Singletary Gray getting really looked great last year,

934
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:48,719
Speaker 2: so he's interesting. And then Kamani Vadal, you know, just

935
00:47:48,800 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: based on the injury history of JK. Dobbins especially, but

936
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: even Gus Edwards is getting up there in age, soil.

937
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 2: Vadal is another guy going outside the top fifty. Him

938
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,719
Speaker 2: and Jalen Wright, I think are both interesting even though

939
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:05,800
Speaker 2: there are RB threes, but Allen Davis are very interesting

940
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 2: to me as RB twos. Where are those guys on

941
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 2: your RB upside chart?

942
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, so I think Vidal is the most like polarizing

943
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 4: one because he certainly has a path to really hit

944
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:20,319
Speaker 4: even though he's the RB three to open up camp.

945
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:24,359
Speaker 4: But you know, Dobbins, it's very questionable he'll be ready

946
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 4: for week one or really at any point. I mean

947
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 4: he's you know, he's coming back from a very devastating

948
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 4: injury for running back. With Achilles and Edwards, I mean,

949
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:35,400
Speaker 4: you know, he's not a lot to be the Chargers

950
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 4: starting running back all season. So Vidal could surprise, you know,

951
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 4: he could be the next Karen Williams type of guy

952
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 4: to really just you know, hit the ground running. So

953
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,880
Speaker 4: we'll see about that. I think brilliant Allen is probably

954
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 4: my favorite of the two because, like like you said,

955
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:54,400
Speaker 4: he is really he is trending up to become the

956
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 4: jets number two back. I think that's that's probably the

957
00:48:57,160 --> 00:49:00,360
Speaker 4: offense I'd rather have a spot start out of my

958
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 4: backup running back, whereas Ray Davis, I don't know if

959
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 4: if James Cook's if James Cook were to go down,

960
00:49:06,600 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 4: I think Ray Davis could find himself in a pretty

961
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:12,919
Speaker 4: ugly time share with you know, Ty Johnson or Frank

962
00:49:12,960 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 4: Gore Junior, or they might bring in another back, so

963
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 4: he's a little bit trickier. Ray Davis could end up

964
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 4: being the next Bills version of Zach Moss, where he's

965
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:23,480
Speaker 4: just kind of a thumper. But at the end of

966
00:49:23,520 --> 00:49:25,800
Speaker 4: the day, Josh Allen's guy that runs in the touchdowns anyway,

967
00:49:27,200 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 4: So I don't know if Ray Davis really has the

968
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:32,479
Speaker 4: same upside as Braylen Allen does if you know, Bruce

969
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:34,479
Speaker 4: Hall were to go down, so I would rank Allen

970
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 4: just slightly higher. But just when it comes to just

971
00:49:38,680 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 4: backups to offer, you know, a ton of upside, I

972
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:44,759
Speaker 4: was going to ask you, you know you're talking about

973
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,879
Speaker 4: Zeke Elliott. I was going to ask you about Rico

974
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 4: Dowdle and just like his chances of potentially making this

975
00:49:50,800 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 4: like an even backfield or leap frogging him, like can

976
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,439
Speaker 4: he pull like a twenty twenty two Tony Pollard type

977
00:49:56,480 --> 00:49:59,640
Speaker 4: season or is he is he strictly Zeke's backup? That's

978
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 4: that's the one backfield I'm not I'm not too certain

979
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 4: how that's going to shake out.

980
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:05,680
Speaker 2: I think I think Daddo has a chance to lead

981
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:09,799
Speaker 2: the backfield in snaps and carries and touches and all

982
00:50:09,840 --> 00:50:12,840
Speaker 2: that stuff. But I don't think the the ceiling is

983
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 2: that high because I think Zeke would still be the

984
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 2: favorite for goal line carries. And I don't think you know,

985
00:50:21,800 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 2: I mean Daddo is was he undrafted? Undrafted?

986
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: Right?

987
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 3: Yeah?

988
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: Yeahrafted?

989
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's twenty six. You know, it took him.

990
00:50:29,920 --> 00:50:31,640
Speaker 2: You know, he was on the roster of a few years,

991
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,160
Speaker 2: just nothing but special teams until he even got the chance,

992
00:50:34,200 --> 00:50:35,840
Speaker 2: and even last year where it's kind of seemed like

993
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,840
Speaker 2: he was in involved. I mean, he's still only averaged

994
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,919
Speaker 2: six point seven touches per game. Now, they obviously feel

995
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 2: somewhat comfortable, you know, because they the only guy they

996
00:50:46,200 --> 00:50:49,920
Speaker 2: added with Zeke. But I'm still on alert for and

997
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 2: that goes for Zeke too. But you know, the Cowboys

998
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 2: could add another back.

999
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 3: To this backfield.

1000
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 2: You know, they could trade for a guy like say

1001
00:50:57,640 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 2: a Miles Sanders or something like that they could sign

1002
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:06,239
Speaker 2: somebody in free agency. So I think, yeah, doubtle if

1003
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,320
Speaker 2: he if you get to start getting to you know,

1004
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 2: the low forties, late forties, I don't mind him, but

1005
00:51:13,080 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 2: I think it's he's probably going to like his I

1006
00:51:17,080 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 2: don't see a scenario where he, you know, gets like

1007
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 2: top fifteen to twenty value. I feel like he's kind

1008
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 2: of locked into that, you know, RB, Like he probably

1009
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 2: tops out as like a low end RB two or

1010
00:51:32,480 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 2: a high end RB three and and just because I

1011
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:38,360
Speaker 2: don't think he's gonna be the lead guy for the

1012
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,680
Speaker 2: for the goal on looks, so yeah, I mean I

1013
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 2: think it's it's it's definitely tempting, but I would, I would,

1014
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 2: I would exercise caution just because of I think there's

1015
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 2: still somebody to add that is going to wrap it

1016
00:51:51,719 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 2: up for our RB two and beyond episode of the

1017
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 2: Fantasy Flex. If you missed our RB one episode or

1018
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 2: a quarterback episodes, you can find those out now on

1019
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:06,239
Speaker 2: the Fantasy Flex Feed. Be sure to subscribe wherever you

1020
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:10,480
Speaker 2: listen to your podcast, because we'll be dropping these pretty

1021
00:52:10,719 --> 00:52:14,359
Speaker 2: routinely from here on out, usually at least two per

1022
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,319
Speaker 2: week we'll be dropping, so we'll end up going through

1023
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:21,760
Speaker 2: each position and all the players up and down the board.

1024
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 2: And don't forget fanacywabs dot com for all of our

1025
00:52:25,239 --> 00:52:27,680
Speaker 2: fantasy football content this year. You can find shown on

1026
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,640
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00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,919
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1029
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:36,000
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00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:46,279
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