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Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's

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Speaker 1: main story the reopening of schools. It's September seven, and

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Speaker 1: by the middle of this month, nearly all teachers, students

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Speaker 1: and parents will be back in the school season swing.

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Speaker 1: Of course, that will look pretty different from one place

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Speaker 1: to the next. Some kids will be back in school

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Speaker 1: at their desks, others meeting in special pods with a

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Speaker 1: handful of classmates, or they'll be home tethered to their chromebooks. Today,

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Speaker 1: with the help of trade Offs, a podcast about our costly, complicated,

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Speaker 1: and counterintuitive health care system, we explore how educators and

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Speaker 1: families are navigating what we know and don't know about

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Speaker 1: the risks of restarting school during a pandemic. From the

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Speaker 1: Anna Burke Studio at the University of Pennsylvania. A conversation

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Speaker 1: with Brown University economist Emily Auster about the tough choices

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Speaker 1: schools and families are facing this fall. Dan Gorenstein reports,

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Speaker 1: so Emily, we've seen lots of places, including big districts

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Speaker 1: like Philadelphia, Houston, and Chicago, opt to open online this fall,

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Speaker 1: while other places and even whole states are opening in person.

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Speaker 1: In the broadest sense, what's driving schools to go the

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Speaker 1: online route? So I think there's basically two things. So

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Speaker 1: one is this decision feels safe from a public health

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Speaker 1: standpoint when we are so focused on COVID transmission. It

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Speaker 1: feels like, you know, if we open in people around,

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Speaker 1: then there will be some transmission, and the safest thing

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Speaker 1: is to not open at all, and so they'll be

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Speaker 1: less COVID. I think the other piece of it is

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Speaker 1: that what a lot of school districts are struggling with

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Speaker 1: is the realization that if they do open in person,

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Speaker 1: there's a chance that they will have to at some

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Speaker 1: point go back to be remote if the situation gets worse.

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Speaker 1: And I think thinking about that transition and how one

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Speaker 1: could manage that, that's really complicated. And I think that

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Speaker 1: for many places, this is the thing which we may

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Speaker 1: have to do anyway, so we want to start there.

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Speaker 1: So I think I think all of those things are

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Speaker 1: going on. Emily has built her career on helping people,

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Speaker 1: often parents, making better choices with better data. When it

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Speaker 1: comes to schools opening online, Emily worries too many districts

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Speaker 1: are focused on COVID concerns and paying less attention to

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Speaker 1: the downsides to online learning. Emily keeping schools closed has

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Speaker 1: lots of repercussions. That's walked through a couple of them. First, many,

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Speaker 1: if not most school districts went remote in the spring.

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Speaker 1: What's the data suggest that actually happened to those students?

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Speaker 1: Did learning end up suffering? I know in the case

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Speaker 1: of my uh soon to be fifteen year old and

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Speaker 1: soon to be thirteen year old, it did. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean I think certainly if you talk to parents, they

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Speaker 1: will tell you that their kids did not learn as

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Speaker 1: much in the spring as they think that they would

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Speaker 1: have if they had been in school. And you know,

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Speaker 1: we do have a little bit of data on this.

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Speaker 1: I think the best evidence comes from this company called

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Speaker 1: zern Zerne is an online program that walks kids through

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Speaker 1: math lessons, and kids across the country used it before

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Speaker 1: we all went online. Starting in the spring, lesson completion

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Speaker 1: dropped In district's with the lowest income levels, lessons dropped.

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Speaker 1: So we're seeing even in something where it was already

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Speaker 1: a computerized experience, you would think it would be relatively

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Speaker 1: straightforward to poured into doing it at home, but it

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Speaker 1: really tanked. How comfortable and confident are you to site

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Speaker 1: Zerne and say, yeah, this probably is a leading indicator

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Speaker 1: to suggest learning really did suffer across the country. That

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Speaker 1: is the sharpest piece of data. What's useful about it

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Speaker 1: is it aligns with a lot of what people are

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Speaker 1: saying anecdotally if you talk to teachers in school districts,

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Speaker 1: or if you look at numbers like what share of

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Speaker 1: kids logged on to online learning, it's not and it's

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Speaker 1: not close to the share of kids who are showing

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Speaker 1: up in person. So I think we have a bunch

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Speaker 1: of these pieces of data, and almost everything we see

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Speaker 1: suggests that learning suffered during the spring period. So if

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Speaker 1: we accept the Zerne findings as indicative of what's actually happening,

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Speaker 1: the downside to online learning comes into sharper focus. Not

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Speaker 1: only is coursework getting stunted, but the class and race

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Speaker 1: inequities and schools are wide needed. The question are those

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Speaker 1: downsides worth the public health benefits? Emily says, based on

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Speaker 1: research she's done this summer looking at camps and childcare programs,

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Speaker 1: this may be a false choice. We actually really kind

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Speaker 1: of need to know what happens when we bring people together. Um,

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Speaker 1: and so I I, at some point early on in

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Speaker 1: the pandemic said, you know, I think we can probably

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Speaker 1: learn something from summer camps because the age range is

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Speaker 1: sort of similar. There are other things that are not similar,

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Speaker 1: but there's you know, something potentially we can learn. So

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Speaker 1: I've been collecting some data, which is I just want

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Speaker 1: to be clear, not random, And in the camps and

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Speaker 1: childcare settings that I have data on, and we actually

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Speaker 1: have very very low infection rates, we can sort of

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Speaker 1: talk and we should talk about kind of counter examples,

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Speaker 1: but I think there are certainly examples of places that

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Speaker 1: have kind of been open with kids that have been saved. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so the summer camp data suggests that maybe outbreaks aren't

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Speaker 1: as threatening as some people think. But we've seen schools

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Speaker 1: open over the summer and there are cases of people

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Speaker 1: getting infected and then the schools shutting down. Doesn't that

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Speaker 1: sort of buttress this argument that maybe we're safer just

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Speaker 1: going online and not even sort of opening Pandora's box. Yeah. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think one thing that's very frustrating about

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Speaker 1: this is that we don't have a systematic data on

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Speaker 1: the school so it is definitely true that as places

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Speaker 1: have opened, there have been cases, multiple cases in schools,

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Speaker 1: places where it looks like there is some spread pretty

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Speaker 1: clearly going on in the school. One of the things

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Speaker 1: we've learned, for example, from Georgia is if you bring

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Speaker 1: back a high school full on basically no precautions, you

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Speaker 1: don't require people to mask, there's no distancing, you have football,

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Speaker 1: and the positivity rate is you know, fifteen percent in

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Speaker 1: the area, then it seems like that's a way to

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Speaker 1: get some COVID spread. That's not actually the same as

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Speaker 1: opening a socially distanced, fully masked kindergarten or first grade

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Speaker 1: in New York City or in New Hampshire. And it's

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Speaker 1: not the same because of the differences in prevalence rate.

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Speaker 1: It's not the same because of the differences in precautions,

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Speaker 1: it's not the same because of the differences in age groups. Emily,

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Speaker 1: based on the conversations you're having with WOOL officials, are

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Speaker 1: you getting the sense that people are making decisions based

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Speaker 1: on the outbreak level in their communities, or do you

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Speaker 1: find that most school districts are just responding with this

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Speaker 1: sort of worst case scenario fear and saying, you know what,

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Speaker 1: let's just go dow online learning. The people that I

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Speaker 1: have talked to in school districts are incredibly thoughtful about this,

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Speaker 1: and they are trying to do everything they can to

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Speaker 1: simultaneously serve their students and also do it safely, and

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Speaker 1: they are really really confused about what to do, and

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Speaker 1: the guidance that they get is really variable. So you know,

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Speaker 1: people in Iowa have been told basically, you need to

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Speaker 1: be fully in person unless the positivity rate is above

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Speaker 1: and then there are people who are being told, you know,

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Speaker 1: you absolutely cannot be in person and all of the

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Speaker 1: positivity rate is above two. So I think that it

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Speaker 1: is just a tremendous amount of frustration and kind of

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Speaker 1: feeling of being like a little abandoned honestly in making

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Speaker 1: these decisions. Of course, opening up physically or remotely is

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Speaker 1: all new. There's little specific guidance at the federal level,

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Speaker 1: meaning there's no clear path forward, leaving schools, teachers, parents

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Speaker 1: and students groping in the dark. But Emily hopes to

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Speaker 1: change that. In August, Emily announced she was partnering with

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Speaker 1: schools superintendents and data wongs to begin gathering evidence on

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Speaker 1: schools that do reopen to help the Chicago's, Philadelphia's, Houston's,

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Speaker 1: and everyone else who's opening online. There are a lot

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Speaker 1: of places that are opening online that are hoping to

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Speaker 1: open in person later. They're waiting to see what happens

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Speaker 1: with the places that are open in person, so they

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Speaker 1: can try to figure out is it safe to open

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Speaker 1: in person? And win is going to be safe to

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Speaker 1: open in person. But they can't figure that out because

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Speaker 1: they don't know what's happening with the places that are open.

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Speaker 1: And that's kind of the meta point of we've sort

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Speaker 1: of fallen down on learning the kind of information that

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Speaker 1: we would need to make good choices here. Both my

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Speaker 1: folks were teachers, and my mom, who's still with us,

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Speaker 1: would not be psychedific. I didn't ask a question about

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Speaker 1: the safety of teachers. What do we know about the

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Speaker 1: risk that teachers and other adults in the building are

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Speaker 1: taking with in person learning. We don't have a lot

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Speaker 1: of data. But what I will say is probably the

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Speaker 1: best day I've seen is from Sweden. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a bit from Denmark too, So in Sweden they kept

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Speaker 1: schools open the whole time, and so you can look

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Speaker 1: at given that that happened. Our teachers a high risk group.

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Speaker 1: So there are some groups where they make up a

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Speaker 1: pretty large share of the hospitalizations relative to their size

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Speaker 1: in the labor market. So for example, bus driver and

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Speaker 1: food service worker in Sweden were very high risk professions,

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Speaker 1: but teacher was not. That data kind of suggests that,

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Speaker 1: you know, teaching is not an especially high risk profession.

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Speaker 1: But you know, I think that we have a huge

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Speaker 1: uphill battle in trying to work with teachers and with

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Speaker 1: unions to try to both convince them but also you know,

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Speaker 1: make them make people feel safe. I don't think we

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Speaker 1: want people coming into schools feeling unsafe and anxious. We

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Speaker 1: need to figure out how are we going to make

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Speaker 1: clear the ways that they are going to be protected.

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Speaker 1: How do you think we should be dealing with this situation, Emily,

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Speaker 1: where there's just a lack of good evidence, there's a

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Speaker 1: lack of guidance, there's a lot on the line, and

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Speaker 1: there's a ton of emotion. What have you learned as

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Speaker 1: an academic, as a researcher, as a writer, as a

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Speaker 1: thinker about how to juggle things that are going on

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Speaker 1: right now. One of the things people are really struggling

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Speaker 1: with is once they make a decision, they rarely feel

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Speaker 1: good about it because no decisions are good, and that

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Speaker 1: I think has been a very valuable thing to name

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Speaker 1: for people. Then I think that knowing that may actually

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Speaker 1: make it easier for people to move forward because they

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Speaker 1: are not continually expecting that somehow the next moment, but

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Speaker 1: they'll feel great about the choice understanding that the trade

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Speaker 1: offs exactly that there are trade offs. Somebody should have

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Speaker 1: a podcast about that, I think. So that seems like

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Speaker 1: a really great name, really good name. Amazing. So to

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Speaker 1: wrap this up, Emily, I'm curious what you're expecting to

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Speaker 1: see over the first ten twelve weeks of the fall

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Speaker 1: when it comes to school. So I would say what

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Speaker 1: I suspect will happen is that some places will open

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Speaker 1: in some places will not. The places that open will

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Speaker 1: stay open pretty much regardless. I think the places that

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Speaker 1: do not open will not open for the whole semester.

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Speaker 1: So I think it will be very difficult for places

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Speaker 1: to transition from remote into in person. It sort of

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Speaker 1: feels like, in some ways the worst of both worlds,

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Speaker 1: that we have a bunch of places open that kind

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Speaker 1: of shouldn't be. From a public health stamp point and

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Speaker 1: a bunch of places that don't open that could from

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Speaker 1: a public health standpoint, So we're losing the learning but

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Speaker 1: not really protecting public health. Emily hopes by working with

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Speaker 1: superintendents and principles, data will finally start to make its

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Speaker 1: way to school leaders in the hopes of arming these

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Speaker 1: districts with reliable information to make incredibly difficult decisions about

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Speaker 1: whether to physically open up schools. Again, the project may

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Speaker 1: lack the heft that comes with federal guidance, but it

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Speaker 1: beats more than thirteen thousand school districts making decisions with

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Speaker 1: very little data. I'm Dan Gorstein and this is Trailers.

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Speaker 1: That was Dan gost on, a segment brought to us

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Speaker 1: by the podcast trade Offs. If you like this story,

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Speaker 1: you can hear more from the trade Offs podcast by

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Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily

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Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our

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