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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 2: I'm saying it to everybody.

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Speaker 1: Open to the Action Network podcast on rape and this

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Speaker 1: is your NF.

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Speaker 2: Preview.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about our crazy side photos either moneyline dogs,

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Speaker 1: and of course crack open our weekly Sunday six pack

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Speaker 1: up against the spread bets with the help of my

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Speaker 1: co host, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: What is going on? Congrats for another great week, and

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Speaker 1: I think you've overtook me either for the first time

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Speaker 1: it's like week one or two, or the first time

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Speaker 1: all year, but uh you're officially back.

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Speaker 2: Yeahoo, good week. Uh but who cares one the next week?

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Speaker 2: I will say last week was one of the craziest

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Speaker 2: NFL weeks I can remember. I'll summarize a couple of

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Speaker 2: stats here. Mahomes was forty six and two when opponents

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Speaker 2: didn't reach twenty one points lost Wallace walk off punt

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Speaker 2: return for the Ravens never returned to punt in the

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Speaker 2: NFL before last week. Titans first ever team to be

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Speaker 2: down fourteen less than two fifty five to go and

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Speaker 2: went out right in regulation. NFL team scoring three or

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Speaker 2: fewer points since two thousand and eight were two fifty

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Speaker 2: five and two. Before the Vikings, Steelers' first team over

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Speaker 2: five hundred to lose back to back games to teams

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Speaker 2: at least eight games under five hundred. Unders had hit

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Speaker 2: thirty four straight wins, scoreless at the half before the

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Speaker 2: Jets Texans game, I unfortunately had that under the Jets

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Speaker 2: get three field goals on negative eight yards after fourth

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Speaker 2: down misses and their own charrectory. I was brutal. Zach

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Speaker 2: Wilson and Tommy DeVito AFC and NFC players of the

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Speaker 2: Week qbs to win a game last week Wilson, Devido,

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Speaker 2: Lepis Zappi, Browning, Flaco and Mullins. Crazy week capped off.

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Speaker 2: I went to Cleveland and I saw Joe Flaka win

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Speaker 2: me more money in that stadium playing for the Browns.

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Speaker 2: Heard all my Browns fans argue over whether Flacco is

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Speaker 2: better than Watson. One's making One's a thirty eight year

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Speaker 2: old guy they signed off the street for the league

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Speaker 2: men the other guy that gave hundreds of millions of

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Speaker 2: dollars too, which is pretty funny. But yeah, we're on

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Speaker 2: the next week. But I will say where results do matter.

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Speaker 2: You know a lot of people follow me on the

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Speaker 2: app and on here. Good week for future. So my

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Speaker 2: two futures are took the flyer on the Bills fifty

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Speaker 2: to one. Everything's turning up Bills lately. They aren't even

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Speaker 2: in play for the division now, and the Ravens the

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Speaker 2: one seed.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: It should be a good finish here to the NFL season.

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Speaker 2: Let's get on to Week fifteen.

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Speaker 1: It's like the Witching Hour of the NFL season. It

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Speaker 1: starts everything just starts turning around. This time. You always

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Speaker 1: see a couple of those crazy upsets playoff five shift

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Speaker 1: and so yeah, it's gonna be good. And I don't

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Speaker 1: know if the Thursday Night will be good, but we're

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Speaker 1: gonna talk about it anyway. So let's kick things off

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Speaker 1: with the Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: You it's not the best game, but it's the only

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Speaker 2: game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football. So we got the Chargers

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Speaker 1: at the Raiders. Raiders favored by three. The total is

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Speaker 1: thirty four, and that's because Justin Herbert out for the

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Speaker 1: season with a thumb injury. So Easton Stick is gonna

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Speaker 1: start at quarterback for the Chargers. And then eight and O'Connell,

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Speaker 1: I guess is gonna start, but it sounds like he's

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Speaker 1: on a short leash or maybe they'll bench him out

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Speaker 1: right before the game. So there's just a lot of

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Speaker 1: uncertainty in terms of just what you're gonna get out

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Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks. Right now, we have eight and O'Connell,

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Speaker 1: who might who might get benched by the time people

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Speaker 1: are listening to this. Laying three points when they lost

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Speaker 1: three to nothing last week, their defense gave up three

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Speaker 1: points and they still couldn't cover. That's just twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 1: NFL in a nutshell, really want no part of this.

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Speaker 1: I think it's Chargers or nothing because you just got

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Speaker 1: to take the points with you know, it's just two

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Speaker 1: backup quarterbacks essentially. But what are your thoughts on this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, unbetable game? But Week fifteen Eastern Stick versus if

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Speaker 2: i'd guess Brian Hoyer, except they don't want to play

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Speaker 2: play Jim Mujiks if he gets hurt, they on eleven million.

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Speaker 2: If it was three and a half, maybe consider Eastern Stick.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, Week fifteen Eastern Stick Brian Hoyer, Thursday night

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Speaker 2: game with no playoff implications, absolutely not unbettable. Game. Keep

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Speaker 2: an eye out for Kerner's props on the action of

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Speaker 2: our gap. I got nothing here. This game is not

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Speaker 2: worth talking about in my opinion, but the I will

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Speaker 2: say a more interesting discussion because a lot of people

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Speaker 2: ask me about this. So MVP market right now, which

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Speaker 2: to tide to Thursday night? Nobody in the Thursday Night

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Speaker 2: game is in the running Presco plus one fifty, Party's

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Speaker 2: plus one seventy five, and then you have Lamar's plus

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Speaker 2: six hundred, Hurts is at plus eight hundred, Allen is

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Speaker 2: plus fourteen hundred, Mahomes is plus sixteen hundred. I think

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Speaker 2: two and Tyreek are out of it after Monday night,

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Speaker 2: so I'll share my thoughts send. I'm pious get years Mahomes.

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Speaker 2: They have an easy schedule. They're like ten to one

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Speaker 2: to get the one seed. I mean, I think that's

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Speaker 2: a better bet than Mahomes sixteen to one. Just bet

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs to win the one seed. Hurts at eight

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Speaker 2: to one, no thanks, and they don't. They play a

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Speaker 2: bunch of clowns two down the stretch. So I think

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Speaker 2: it's between Prescott and Party. I think that if Party

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Speaker 2: wins out, I actually think Purty should be the favorite.

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Speaker 2: So Party wins out, it's gone. The ward's gone to

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Speaker 2: the quarterback with a one seed for ten years in

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Speaker 2: a row. So Party wins out, that means you would

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Speaker 2: have and everyone's gonna look. Prescott will probably if he

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Speaker 2: beats the Bills this week, which I don't think they did.

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Speaker 2: Will talk about that later. But if he beats the

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Speaker 2: Bills this week, that he's gonna go. He's gonna continue

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Speaker 2: be the favorite. His odds will probably trickle off because

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Speaker 2: Party could put up some big numbers, but it's the Cardinals. However,

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Speaker 2: Christmas Day in primetime, Purty plays as the Ravens, so

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Speaker 2: that'll be even. These things usually come out to the

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Speaker 2: last three weeks, so that'll be a huge game against

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Speaker 2: a really good defense. And if Party wins that game,

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Speaker 2: and you know forty nine ers get the one seed

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Speaker 2: and then he beat Prescott already, I don't know. I

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Speaker 2: think Perdy would win it. So I agree that Perty

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Speaker 2: and Prescott should be the two favorites. I think the

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Speaker 2: only two worth considering are Josh Allen, but I would

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Speaker 2: need like twenty to one or better. He has the

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Speaker 2: numbers and if they win out, potentially win the division.

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Speaker 2: He's interesting I think it's a four guy race. Allen

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Speaker 2: is the super long shot that could come from way behind,

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Speaker 2: and then Lamar has a chance. Tough schedule, but even

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Speaker 2: if he lose to the Jacksonville this week, if he

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Speaker 2: beats the Dolphins to get the one seed and beats

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Speaker 2: the forty nine ers at Sant fran But I think

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Speaker 2: those are the only guys who could win it right now.

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Speaker 2: So what are your thoughts that on the MVP race.

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Speaker 1: I agree, I think Perdy and Prescott should be the favorites.

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Speaker 1: I do agree that Party should be the favorite. But

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Speaker 1: those numbers, I mean, what do you say, plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty plus one say are just egregious, so you can't

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Speaker 1: really bet those. I think I like Allen a little

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Speaker 1: bit more than Jackson because you're still getting longer odds

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Speaker 1: and the Ravens just have so many different ways to win.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Allen's my favorite because he, like you said,

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Speaker 1: he has the numbers, and then you would have this

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Speaker 1: crazy story of you know, Alan overcoming the coordinator firing

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Speaker 1: and it would be Josh. Allen would be the bet

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Speaker 1: for me. But I do think perty is gonna win

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Speaker 1: it just for what it's worth. But yeah, let's get

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Speaker 1: into the week fifteen Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 2: Thirsty for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: All right, So congraduations again. Finally got a couple points up,

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Speaker 1: fifty two fifty. You're in the lead and I'm first

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Speaker 1: this week. So I'll start us off with the first

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Speaker 1: pick of the week fifteen Sunday six pack. I'm going

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Speaker 1: with the Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half at

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Speaker 1: the Cincinnati Bengals. And I've talked about this on this pod,

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Speaker 1: I've talked about it on our Happy Hour show, and

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Speaker 1: this year it's just been backup quarterbacks pitted against each

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Speaker 1: other time and time again, and a lot of uncertainty.

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Speaker 1: It's tough. It's just tougher to handicap these matchups in general,

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Speaker 1: because you know, everyone has their opinion of Okay, this

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Speaker 1: quarterback's works this much to the spread and this and that.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, it's a projection,

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Speaker 1: and it's a lot of times based on limited sample

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Speaker 1: sizes for the backup and or sample sizes that aren't

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Speaker 1: really relevant. Because Nick Mullens has made a lot of

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Speaker 1: starts in this week, but most of them were in

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Speaker 1: the Shanahan offense, which is kind of completely different. But

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Speaker 1: I will say this, you know Jake Brown, now you're

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Speaker 1: talking about he's laying not even just three, but three

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Speaker 1: and the hook here. This is when I think you

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Speaker 1: want to fade these kind of teams and quarterbacks. And

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Speaker 1: because Cincinnati could feasibly still win this game and not

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Speaker 1: cover if you're getting three in the hook. So love

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Speaker 1: the spot here. But I do think that when you

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Speaker 1: look at these two teams, you have two backup caliber quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: decent offensive weapons around him. You know, even if Justin

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Speaker 1: Jefferson doesn't play for Minnesota, you still have good weapons

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Speaker 1: for them. You still have decent left tackle and all

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Speaker 1: that good stuff. So when it comes down to me

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Speaker 1: for me, is then who's got the better defense? And

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Speaker 1: that answer at this point we're now we're in week fifteen,

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Speaker 1: I think is clearly Minnesota. It's no longer just oh Man.

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Speaker 1: Brian Floreses. You know, he's having a can't believe he

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Speaker 1: took like a wee worst defense and made him respectable.

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Speaker 1: Like this defense is playing well, and you know they

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Speaker 1: took care of business last week, shutting out the Open Raider,

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raders excuse me.

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Speaker 2: And if an EPA per play on the season though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was about to say, so, they're sixth in DVOA,

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Speaker 1: which of course adjust for strength to schedule, top seven

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Speaker 1: against both the run and the past. We're at Cincinnati,

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Speaker 1: and you've been on this pretty much from the jump

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Speaker 1: of the season, just kind of talking about the Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: defense was worrisome and had some concerns and probably wasn't

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Speaker 1: gonna get anywhere close to respectability that they you know,

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Speaker 1: were at when they made that playoff run a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago. So twenty fifth in DVOA, below average

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Speaker 1: against both the pass and the run, and that's a

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Speaker 1: nineteen spot difference. Sixth and twenty fifth on defense. I

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Speaker 1: don't think even if Brown and browny he looks pretty

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Speaker 1: solid out there, that probably not as good as the

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Speaker 1: numbers because he's had a couple of multiple deflect the

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Speaker 1: balls get caught by Chase. He's also had a bunch

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Speaker 1: of run after the catch, just explosions by Chase Chase

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Speaker 1: and then Chase Brown. So dude's name Chase essentially are

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Speaker 1: just kind of yacking it up for him. So that

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Speaker 1: tends to regress. And you're also gonna get I think

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Speaker 1: the toughest challenge, not only just by the numbers on defense,

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Speaker 1: but this Brian Flores defense for a quarterback making his

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Speaker 1: fourth start, just so many exotic looks. Usually when you

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Speaker 1: get a blitzing defense, you're playing a lot of man

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Speaker 1: behind it. Minnesota is doing a lot of zone blitzing,

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Speaker 1: and they also rush three and mixing some of that.

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Speaker 1: So I just think it's if it's gonna be one

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Speaker 1: of these spots where you might see a backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: who is having a lot of success come back down

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Speaker 1: on earth with it. But kind of like we saw

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Speaker 1: with Josh Dobbs when he started. I think it was

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Speaker 1: his fourth or fifth start. So I'm just buying low

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Speaker 1: here on Nick Mullens, who at least we've seen him

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Speaker 1: be competent. He's won both of He's covered in both

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Speaker 1: of his first starts with his you know, new teams

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Speaker 1: one his first start in San Francisco, and then covered

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Speaker 1: his first start with the Cleveland Browns. It's only start

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Speaker 1: with them, but first career, you know, averaged seven and

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Speaker 1: a half yards an attempt. Well probably about it as

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Speaker 1: a Shanahan offense, but again, you have decent weapons Hockinson

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Speaker 1: Addison even if Jefferson doesn't play. So give me the

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Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half Saturday road teams

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Speaker 1: too for what is worth sixty two percent against the

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Speaker 1: spread over the last two decades has been about one

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Speaker 1: hundred just over one hundred games played on Saturdays over

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Speaker 1: that time span. So I love the Vikings in this

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Speaker 1: spot going to Cincinnati.

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Speaker 2: What the look? I think that that's the only play.

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Speaker 2: But it's amazing with Flores has done because their roster

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Speaker 2: talent wise, is not worse than it was last year

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Speaker 2: just from a raw talent perspective, and it was bad

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Speaker 2: last year. The game bump is massive for what he's

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Speaker 2: done to that defense that was just lost. Remember last year,

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Speaker 2: like at Donna, Tell was like, I don't know, I'm

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Speaker 2: just I might try to At the end of the season,

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Speaker 2: he was like, I don't know what to do. I'll

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Speaker 2: just I might try something completely different in the final weeks,

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Speaker 2: Like it was a mess.

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Speaker 1: He gave Daniel Jones what like one hundred million dollars.

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Speaker 1: Like that was Daniel Jones who looked like Joe Montana

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Speaker 1: going against the Vikings defense twice. Now his defense we're

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Speaker 1: talking about the defense is the top six defense. I

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Speaker 1: mean times have changed, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, Well, bad transition with the road teams on Saturday,

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Speaker 2: because for my first pick of the week fifteen Sunday

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Speaker 2: six back, I'm going to the Detroit Lions minus four

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Speaker 2: against the Denver Broncos. I have been fading this Lions

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Speaker 2: team incessantly because their defense is terrible. Golf's been outdoors

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Speaker 2: a bunch, but now everyone's writing them off. I said

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Speaker 2: this about the Bills, about Drusca, I said, all right,

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Speaker 2: that's the bias signal. This is the bias signal. Out

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Speaker 2: the Lions look, and they've gone four and two over

258
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Speaker 2: the past six games. Their two losses, they turned over

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Speaker 2: six times, had no takeaways. Andy went two of ten

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Speaker 2: on fourth down, so made it look a little worse

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Speaker 2: than it was. But GOP's come back home, he's indoors.

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Speaker 2: It's just a massive difference. You also have the much

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Speaker 2: better offense here, and if you remove the golf outdoor games,

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Speaker 2: when he turns into a pumpkin, it's an enormous gap

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Speaker 2: between these two offenses. I think Frank Ragnow will be

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Speaker 2: back at center, which is big, so I think that

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Speaker 2: you'll get a rallied Lions effort. This is where they

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Speaker 2: play well indoors, and this Broncos team is on the

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Speaker 2: opposite end of the spectrum of the lines. This is

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Speaker 2: a classic bi low cell high spot. The Broncos have

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Speaker 2: won six of seven and if you look, I talked

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Speaker 2: up and I was better in the road of the season.

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Speaker 2: After that Miami gain, they made some changes on defense,

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Speaker 2: schematic changes. They got a little healthier since they gave

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Speaker 2: up seventy since week four, their fourth in EPA per

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Speaker 2: play on defense. However, EPA per play extremely impacted by turnovers,

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Speaker 2: which are not predictive over that same stretch. If you

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Speaker 2: remove turnovers, and you also remove garbage time against backup quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: So you gotta remember this Broncos team faced PJ. Walker

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Speaker 2: after the Browns injuries. Last week, they faced easton stick

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Speaker 2: they faced I also not removing this, but it is

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Speaker 2: Mahomes with the flu. I mean even Tank Dell got hurt.

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Speaker 2: I mean whoever the Vikings quarterback was at the time.

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Speaker 2: Everything is broken right for the Broncos lately. But if

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Speaker 2: you remove turnovers and garbage time against just the backups

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Speaker 2: that they faced on early downs, which are much more

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Speaker 2: predictive since week four, twenty fifth and EPA per play

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Speaker 2: thirtieth in success rate. This defense has been living off

289
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Speaker 2: of fourth down luck, red zone luck, and most importantly, turnovers.

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Speaker 2: During their sixth game, so that they've their past six wins,

291
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Speaker 2: they are plus fifteen in turnover margin. They've taken the

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Speaker 2: ball away eighteen times and only turned it over three.

293
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Speaker 2: So there is massive aggression on late downs and on

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Speaker 2: in the turnover department coming for the Broncos. What perfect

295
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Speaker 2: way for it to come? Then the lines who their

296
00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:59,000
Speaker 2: defense been bad bottom three since week seven, But this

297
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Speaker 2: isn't a really explosive Denver offense that you have to

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Speaker 2: be too worried about. And the Lions have been a

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Speaker 2: bit unlucky. They're not as bad as they've been. I

300
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Speaker 2: still think they're a bottom five to ten defense, but

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Speaker 2: they're not a bottom two to three. They've been really

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Speaker 2: unlucky over the past two months on like third and longs,

303
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Speaker 2: third and Forever's fourth downs, so they have a little

304
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Speaker 2: bit of positive aggression coming. But I think it's just

305
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 2: a perfect bilow cell high spot on the lines at

306
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Speaker 2: home with golf indoors, where he's not a pumpkin for

307
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Speaker 2: what it's worth golf thirty and fifteen against the spread

308
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Speaker 2: indoors sixty six point seven percent. Among two hundred and

309
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Speaker 2: twenty quarterbacks over the past twenty years who have played

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Speaker 2: at least one game in a dome, he's the most profitable.

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Speaker 2: Give me the Lions minus four at.

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Speaker 3: Home, Hello Detroit.

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Speaker 2: One.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh. You've You've had a good feel for

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Speaker 1: these teams, both the Broncos and the Lions this year,

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Speaker 1: better than I haven't really been betting either side of that,

317
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Speaker 1: but yeah, I think you made good pull points on that.

318
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Speaker 1: And I think also that run defense for the Broncos

319
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:09,200
Speaker 1: I think is really exploited. The Lions can exploit most

320
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Speaker 1: teams on the ground me and they even had success

321
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Speaker 1: against the Bears last week, and the Bears have been

322
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Speaker 1: a very good run defense. So I'm kind of excited

323
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Speaker 1: to see it all come together because remember I had

324
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Speaker 1: the Lion. I did that the Lions when they beat

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, and I think that was the game that

326
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Speaker 1: caused mcganne to get fired. But that was kind of sloppy,

327
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Speaker 1: got through a pick six. They could have been a

328
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Speaker 1: much bigger game. They stalled out in the red zone.

329
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Speaker 1: Try to get too cute. I'm still waiting for the

330
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Speaker 1: Lions offense to put it all together with you know,

331
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Speaker 1: having everyone healthy, Jamison and Gibbs, and I think a

332
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Speaker 1: Lions smash spot is coming and if they could definitely

333
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Speaker 1: win with margin here. So the more I think about it,

334
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Speaker 1: the more I like it. For my second pick and

335
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Speaker 1: the third overall of the week fifteen six pack, I

336
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:02,120
Speaker 1: am going with the New York Football Giants plus six

337
00:18:02,200 --> 00:18:06,159
Speaker 1: at the New Orleans Saints. And I know, I know

338
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,920
Speaker 1: the Giants have been getting lucky with turnovers. I think

339
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 1: they have like what ten turns. Their defense has ten

340
00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,359
Speaker 1: takeaways over the last three games on that winning streak.

341
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Speaker 1: But it all is over. It's all just offset by

342
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,440
Speaker 1: the fact that I just don't think this Saints team

343
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Speaker 1: should be laying six points to anyway. Maybe maybe maybe

344
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:29,080
Speaker 1: the Patriots are, like that's about it. Like I just

345
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:34,760
Speaker 1: this Saints team, for one, is still pretty banged up.

346
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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know who's gonna be back with

347
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,800
Speaker 1: recording this on Wednesday and who's not. But they're dealing

348
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Speaker 1: with a lot of injuries. They've been consistently back. Carr

349
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,719
Speaker 1: says he's still hurt even he's playing through, but car

350
00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:48,840
Speaker 1: is not playing well. Despite all their talent, they never

351
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,440
Speaker 1: seem to play as well as they should on offense,

352
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Speaker 1: you know, even when Taysum's a full go, even when

353
00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: Camara has been in there all year. But I look

354
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:04,120
Speaker 1: at this Giant defense and I say, okay, Derek Carr,

355
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: you know you can bait him into mistakes. And Derek Carr,

356
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:09,959
Speaker 1: he's thrown a pick in more than half of his games.

357
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,520
Speaker 1: He's fumbled in I think five out of his last

358
00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:16,000
Speaker 1: six games now as at least won fumble. So Derek

359
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 1: Carr is gonna make some mistakes against this wing Martindale defense.

360
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:25,120
Speaker 1: And then on the other side you have Tommy DeVito,

361
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: who he's kind of like a punchline right now, but

362
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 1: for what has worth. I mean, he's he they've limited

363
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,680
Speaker 1: his volume, but he's been able to be just efficient enough.

364
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 1: And I think the Giants offense is still trending up.

365
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,200
Speaker 1: So I don't you know the Giants for the season.

366
00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,520
Speaker 1: I mean, their offensive numbers are horrible because you had

367
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Speaker 1: that phase where Andrew Thomas was out, you got a

368
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: little sacks. You had the phase where Daniel Jones wasn't

369
00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: thrown downfield, so you know de Veto, he has Andrew

370
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 1: Thomas now he has I think the three best wide

371
00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,479
Speaker 1: receivers coming out of the by. I like that they

372
00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 1: essentially cut out the rotation. It was just all Wandale

373
00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: Hyatt and Darius Slayton with Hodgens in the red zone,

374
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 1: which is exactly how it should be. And you have

375
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 1: Saquon bark We healthy. Andrew Thomas has been one hundred

376
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:14,359
Speaker 1: percent of the snap each of the last three games,

377
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 1: So no coincidence. They're the Giants are competent, So I

378
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:21,879
Speaker 1: just think this Giant team now is competent, and this

379
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 1: Saint team is always ripe for letdowns. Derek Carr in

380
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 1: his career as an underdog fifty two and forty four

381
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 1: against the spread. Uh, that's fifty four percent respectable, even

382
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 1: though he has a negative negative point six differential, so

383
00:20:38,320 --> 00:20:41,680
Speaker 1: kind of probably overachieving odor there. But as a favorite,

384
00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 1: Derek Carr is nineteen and thirty seven against the spread

385
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: thirty four percent, failing to cover by an average of

386
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 1: four and a half points per game, and as a

387
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: favorite of a field goal or more nine and twenty

388
00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 1: six against the spread twenty five percent, failed to cover

389
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 1: by five points a game, and then Dennis Allen same

390
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 1: thing six and sixteen, twenty seven percent against spread as

391
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: a favorite two and eight this season. Uh So, I

392
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,360
Speaker 1: just think this is too many points for a competent,

393
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: kind of feisty Giant team that's gonna just has the

394
00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 1: things that kind of I think mess ups mess with

395
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 1: the Saints. Saints played a lot of man coverage the

396
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 1: Vito and this Giant off has actually been pretty good

397
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,479
Speaker 1: against man coverage, far better than they have against zone coverage.

398
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:33,399
Speaker 1: So I do think the Giants have some matchup advantages

399
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,960
Speaker 1: in this spot as well. So give me the g

400
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 1: men catching six on a road against a Sainty and

401
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:43,200
Speaker 1: that I still just have no no belief in.

402
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, fading car is a six point favorite.

403
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: I'll never you know, push back with you too much,

404
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,760
Speaker 2: but uh, I do just a lot. I think this

405
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: will come down to Ken the job. The Saints run

406
00:21:56,160 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 2: defense has taken a step back this year, so they're

407
00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 2: you know, they've been dominant recently, So can they get

408
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 2: Barkley going enough? Otherwise you'll be starting to ask to

409
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 2: be able to drop back on known passing downs and

410
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 2: then he'll inevitably take a bunch of sacks. Yeah, I

411
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 2: mean they've won three straight. They've had a ton of

412
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: turnover luck. So I don't know if this seems like

413
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 2: maybe the wrong time the bye, but it's this. The

414
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: Saints team, which I don't really think is any good

415
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 2: in car, is a favorite, so I can't push back

416
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 2: too much. For my second pick and the fourth overall

417
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 2: of the week, fifteen Sunday six pack, I'm going with

418
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 2: the Buffalo Bills minus one and a half at home

419
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: against the Dallas Cowboys.

420
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 1: Alert here, Josh Allen, he's he's a football player, and

421
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 1: there's right from there, we goodru It's an excuse me touchdown?

422
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 2: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness,

423
00:22:58,200 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 2: there's no fear, no way.

424
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 1: The demands to do something about this album wages, and I.

425
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: Have not one of the faith of Cowboys for I

426
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 2: don't know. We're going on eight weeks now. I've said

427
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 2: I don't want to fade them. I've I don't too

428
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,680
Speaker 2: many bad things to say about the Dallas. They've they've

429
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 2: been the luckiest team in the NFL with turnovers, They've

430
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: had an easy schedule, They've done a lot of their

431
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: damage at home. But I've loved their tweaks from an

432
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 2: offensive perspective, what they've done schematically, throwing more early down

433
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,000
Speaker 2: stack using his legs. They've all figured figured some things

434
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 2: out on defense in the post Diggs world, I still

435
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: really like this Dallas team. I also really like this

436
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 2: Buffalo team. These are two top five teams and the

437
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: top five of my power ratings, two of the teams

438
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 2: that I think can win the Super Bowl. I am

439
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,120
Speaker 2: just going to trust the spot here and the more

440
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,520
Speaker 2: desperate team at home, the Styles team going outdoors, Nachna,

441
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: it's easy outdoors in front of this rock as Buffalo

442
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 2: crowd in Buffalo in December. I'm gonna jinx myself, but

443
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,960
Speaker 2: I'm nine to oher betting Buffalo sides on this podcast

444
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: this year. I would bet them early in the air

445
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 2: a couple of times. I faded them basically every week

446
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,639
Speaker 2: after those defensive injuries. And then now I've bet them

447
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: every week because I said, now the mark is Botton

448
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 2: vout And by the way, what's happened since then? Well,

449
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: they added Versull Douglas, who's been great. They needed that.

450
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 2: You know, you go from no star corner, no stut corner,

451
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,200
Speaker 2: to having Risull Douglas as you to do so much more.

452
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:39,680
Speaker 2: McDermott also made some schematic tweaks. And then also naturally

453
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 2: you have all these new guys because you lost Milana,

454
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:44,520
Speaker 2: you lost ak one, Jon's you Australia. You have all

455
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 2: these new guys with increased playing time, more responsibility, more snaps.

456
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,800
Speaker 2: Now after five or six games, guess what, you get

457
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 2: more comfortable, You're gonna improve over time. So the defense

458
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 2: just has improved over on. Josh Allen's playing at a

459
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,760
Speaker 2: different level. Hit. I mean, he is playing as well

460
00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 2: as any quarterback. Dacks right up there too. But Allen

461
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,479
Speaker 2: and then this Joe Brady. Joe Brady's been great as

462
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: a new offensive coordinator. So I'm gonna trust the spot.

463
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: Dallas off that huge win. They've won five straight. For

464
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 2: what it's worth, over the past twenty seasons, underdogs in

465
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 2: December or January that have a winning percentage of at

466
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:21,400
Speaker 2: least seventy five percent twenty nine forty nine and two

467
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 2: against the spread thirty seven point two percent, and if

468
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: they're on a multiple game winning streak, as Dallas is

469
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 2: sixteen thirty seven and two against the spread thirty percent,

470
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 2: I think this is probably at the top of the

471
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 2: market for the Cowboys. I'm gonna trust the spot, the

472
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 2: home crowd, Allen to get it done. Give me the

473
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,359
Speaker 2: Buffalo Bills minus one and to have to keep it rolling.

474
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is I mean it's it's definitely Bills are

475
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 1: nothing at this point.

476
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 2: Josh Allen, for what it's worth, this is when you

477
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 2: want to back him. Elite, just an elite quarterback as

478
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 2: an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal

479
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 2: twenty one to nine and two against the spread since

480
00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 2: his first month of the his rookie season, seventy percent

481
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 2: covered by five points per game. So give me the Bills,

482
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 2: all right?

483
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: For my third and final pick, the fifth overall of

484
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: the week fifteen six pack. Speaking of WHENSA backt them

485
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 1: going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus two and a half.

486
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:27,240
Speaker 2: Kims want to have a good course.

487
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: Probably won't get the three and less watt Ander Heismith

488
00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: ruled out because they're in concussion protocol. I think they'll play.

489
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: I think they were.

490
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 2: Practicing today and then concussion protocol late and it doesn't matter.

491
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:44,320
Speaker 1: So I was reading the protocol rules and I definitely

492
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: see how these things get fludged because it's like, Okay,

493
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: the team physician has to clear them from a like

494
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: after they practice, the team posian has to quar them,

495
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 1: and an independent neurologist hired by the team. So it's like,

496
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,399
Speaker 1: is that really an independent neurologist then or is it

497
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 1: just a hired gun that they're probably paying really well.

498
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: So when they have a quarterback or a key defensive

499
00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 1: player like a TJ, why he gets the clear. But

500
00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,280
Speaker 1: either way, I mean, remember the Steelers had a long,

501
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: long week because they played on Thursday night last week.

502
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,400
Speaker 1: Yeah last week, So by and low, I mean not low,

503
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: because the Steelers are still number two in our luck rankings.

504
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: But finally there's a time to buy back in on

505
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 1: this team because the Colts are number three in the

506
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: Colts and you said it last week. This is a

507
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 1: justice fraudulent team as the Steelers, I think maybe even

508
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 1: more so. And I'm getting points in a spot that's

509
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 1: just been proven over and over again that the Steelers

510
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 1: get up for. I mean, the sky is falling. They

511
00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 1: lost the first team ever to lose above five hundred,

512
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: to lose to two to two win teams in a row.

513
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 1: Ben Roethlisberger just came out and said, Steelers tradition is dead.

514
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 2: It's just some extra ross here too.

515
00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's just perfect bulletin board material for Tomlin

516
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: to get these guys up. What a raw ron, Mike

517
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: Tomlin spot. We win the game with this cruel bodies

518
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: right here today. Game today. By the way, you know,

519
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: this is kind of the spot I've been targeting all year,

520
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: just regardless of you know, the teams involved. It's just

521
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 1: when you have a backup quarterback laying points against another

522
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 1: backup quarterback, everyone wants to think about the underdog as like, oh,

523
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: yeah he sucks. Yeah, obviously Mitched Trubisky's not good. He

524
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: can't even beat out Tenny Pickett.

525
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: We know this.

526
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: But Gardner Minshew's not good either. Gardner Minshew his four

527
00:28:42,760 --> 00:28:46,800
Speaker 1: point eight percent turnover worthy play rate bottom five among

528
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: forty qualifiers at quarterback. Only one of the other four

529
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: is starting, and that's Desmond Ritter, and he also got betched.

530
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 1: He just happened to get re inserted in the lineup

531
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: because the guy got benched for was even worse and

532
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: I think got hurt. So this is what the level

533
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: that Gardner Minshew is playing at. You look at success

534
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: rate past success rate this year Trubisky fifty percent. Can

535
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: he picket forty percent? Last year Trubisky forty six percent?

536
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 1: Can you pick it forty four percent? So it's ugly,

537
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: but long term is not really much of a drop

538
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: off between the two quarterbacks. And again you have one side,

539
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 1: the underdog side, with the better defense. Pittsburgh's seventh in

540
00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: defensive DVOA, eighth against the past, eleventh against the run,

541
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: Indianapolis is fourteenth, sixteenth weited, So they're trending down more

542
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: middle of the pack and really bad against the run.

543
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: So maybe it's Steell. You know that that can help

544
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 1: the Steelers because they do need to run a ball.

545
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,719
Speaker 1: I don't think you want to have either of these

546
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 1: quarterbacks dropping back a ton and this thing. But more

547
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: more than anything else, this is just a spot where

548
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: Mike tom Win time and time again has found a

549
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: way fifty five and thirty with three pushes as an

550
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: underdog against the spread, sixty five percent as an underdog

551
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: off a loss twenty one and ten, sixty eight percent

552
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 1: against the spread as an underdog without Ben Roethlisberger. So

553
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 1: any other quarterback starting for Pittsburgh besides Big Ben with

554
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 1: Tomlin coaching as an underdog twenty three ten and three

555
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread, and Tomlin as an underdog

556
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 1: against an opponent with an equal or better straight up

557
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: win loss record, which the coach do have, uh thirty

558
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: eight fifteen to one. Just a Tomlin spot. I think

559
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: I think it would get to three if though, if

560
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: you know one of the key defensive players ruled out,

561
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: I'm still betting it.

562
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 2: There.

563
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 1: Give me Pittsburgh plus two and a half at the Hopes.

564
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like if the cults are a fraud and this

565
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: classic Tomlin spot.

566
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: Sharp dues can just see it, because sharp dues don't

567
00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 1: care what you say anyway, They just watching.

568
00:30:58,920 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 4: You know what I mean.

569
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 2: Well, I don't think there's I have no difference between

570
00:31:01,800 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 2: Pickett and Trubisky from a power ratings standpoint, so that

571
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 2: doesn't matter. So I like it. For my third pick

572
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 2: and the sixth overall of the week fifteen Sunday six pack,

573
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: we go to Chicago Bears plus three and a half

574
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 2: at the Cleveland Browns. This is I should say, my

575
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: three picks. You just talked about them. This is good.

576
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: The minus one twenty there's we record this and then

577
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 2: it comes out a couple hours later, then you might

578
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,800
Speaker 2: be listening to two days later. Minus one twenty is

579
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 2: fine here. I would bet the lines up the minus

580
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 2: five and a half. People always ask this, and then

581
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: I would bet what was my other bet? The bills

582
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 2: up the minus two and a half, which I already said.

583
00:31:39,120 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 2: And then I agree with your if you want to

584
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: go through yours real quick, I agree with you. Wait

585
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: to see on the Steelers the news, Like, if it

586
00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 2: goes down to two, it's not that big of a deal,

587
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: then you want to play it. That's probably because there's news.

588
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 2: You know, everyone's not you know, people have jobs and

589
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: are sitting in front of the screen all day. So

590
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 2: but if it goes down to two, hit if there's

591
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 2: probably news out there, yeah, no, minus one twenty I

592
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: would buy the whole up to minus one twenty there

593
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 2: and then the g men, I don't think it's gonna

594
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 2: go to seven.

595
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, it's not gonna go to seven. U I

596
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 1: have it closer to four. Six is is a key number.

597
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, if you don't know half that could that

598
00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: could matter. And I don't think it's gonna go to seven.

599
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, So that definitely bet that one. Now, you know,

600
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 4: if it's out there, okay. So get back to the Bears.

601
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 4: My third and the final pick of the six pack

602
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: I have. I had never played the Bears for years.

603
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 4: Now I'm playing.

604
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 2: This is the third time in four weeks that I'll

605
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:31,760
Speaker 2: be betting them. This is the team on the upswing,

606
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,719
Speaker 2: also playing just with house money, nothing to lose. All

607
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: the pressure on the Browns here. I think the Browns

608
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: will get too much credit for that game last week.

609
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,600
Speaker 2: I bet them. I expect them to win. The Jaguars

610
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 2: are beat up on a short week. It was a

611
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 2: great spot. Joe Flacco is still okay, is a great,

612
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 2: still has a rocket arm. He's still thirty eight year

613
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:51,760
Speaker 2: old statue. Now behind an offensive line that lost its

614
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 2: third starting offensive tackle for the season last week. That's massive.

615
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 2: They're under the fourth and fifth string tackle. Uh it.

616
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:02,280
Speaker 2: They are also Ethan poachesse of center. Got hurt. You

617
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: don't talk about a team's banged up ford at running

618
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: back the most really the defense. You lost your starting

619
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 2: defensive tackle, Resharst. He matters, he's out for the season.

620
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 2: His backup to ord now it's a cushion protocol. Had

621
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: another backup defensive line and get hurt he had grant

622
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 2: help with the safety go on ir today, Wan thorn

623
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,400
Speaker 2: All and Denzel Award. I think they're gonna play, but

624
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 2: they were out last week. This is a beat up team. Meanwhile,

625
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 2: the Bears outside of Bengakway doesn't really matter. They're completely healthy.

626
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 2: This Bears defense trending up up up since Week seven.

627
00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: Fifth in EPA per play, one spot ahead of the Browns.

628
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 2: Also ninth and success rate and montest sweat allows you

629
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 2: to get a little bit of pressure. Jalen Johnson playing

630
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 2: at all pro level twenty six passer rating allowed this year.

631
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: He's been a top three corner this year. I hope

632
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: it that he gets all Pro honors. He deserves it

633
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 2: and the Bears really should lock him up to a deal.

634
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, the offense even the bet and they also

635
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: got healthier. They were dealing with some injuries earlier the season.

636
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: Can't really run on them. And now you're gonna have

637
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 2: the statue Flacco, you know, behind an offensive line that

638
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 2: might be down or will be down a couple of starters.

639
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 2: And on the other side, Bear Fields is playing better.

640
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 2: He worked on some of the mechanics of his dropbacks

641
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 2: and what does what can he do that. Other quarterbacks

642
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 2: have done that gave the the Browns issues this year.

643
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 2: He's mobile. Mobile quarterbacks that can evade this pressure and

644
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 2: create plays have given this aggressive Browns defense trouble this year.

645
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: It's one of the reasons why I love the Jags

646
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 2: last week was because I number one, I assume Lawrence

647
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: wasn't gonna play. He did, and then I said he

648
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:38,480
Speaker 2: did he wouldn't be mobile. Well, it turns out he

649
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 2: was actually running around well a lot, and he was

650
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 2: making plays. And that's why the Jags, you know, put

651
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: up twenty seven points in that game. We were just

652
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 2: undone by turnovers and their defense. So, yeah, Bears playing

653
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 2: way too well here. This should be a low scoring game,

654
00:34:54,880 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 2: and I think there's too much value in Chicago. So

655
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 2: let's keep it rolling. Go back to the Wealth the

656
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:01,839
Speaker 2: Bears one more time.

657
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not you surprised, Well, I guess because it's

658
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: three at MGM. Is that why you didn't go with

659
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: it for your first quick I feel like this is

660
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 1: probably the best one out of the three that you mentioned, Like,

661
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: I think the Bears are probably the lie. I mean,

662
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: you know, Cowboys Bills, it's still Cowboys Bills. You know

663
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: it's still kind of a toss up, and then you

664
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: know you're weighing points with the Lions. But this is

665
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 1: like the Bears have a probably win this game. I mean,

666
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: Cleveland's that banged up at this point.

667
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,239
Speaker 2: I like all three. I like all three equally, So

668
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: I don't it was random?

669
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: Oh got you?

670
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 2: Okay?

671
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 3: Uh?

672
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. So this is another one of those weeks where

673
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 1: you have a lot better quarterbacks than I do. You

674
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: have Josh Allen, you have Justin Fields, and you have

675
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:49,319
Speaker 1: Jared Goff. I have Tommy Ducido, Josh not Josh, what's

676
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 1: Nick Morwins and Mitch Bortle's. So yeah, it's uh, it's

677
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 1: it's ugly. It's week fifteen. But that is going to

678
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 1: be our six pack. Buffalo mine square and a half,

679
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: Detroit minus four, and Chicago plus three and a half.

680
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 1: For Stuck, I got the Minnesota Vikings plus three and

681
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 1: a half, the Giants plus six, and the Steelers plus

682
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 1: two and a half. Stuck got much better quarterbacks this week,

683
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, Justin Fields, and Jared Goff, whereas I have

684
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 1: the Veto Mullins and Mitch Bortles, as you like to

685
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: call hims. You've just been bortled. But it's time for

686
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: our week fifteen coaches pep talk. You keep playing the

687
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: way you're playing, We're gonna get a half feet again

688
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,800
Speaker 1: to night. And it stopped right now for this week's

689
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: coaches pep talk. Gotta go back to our boy. NFL

690
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: film's legend, John Facenda reading a poem by Rudyard Kipling,

691
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,640
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna dedicate this to those backup quarterback because

692
00:36:57,719 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: you don't really need the luck stuck. I mean you

693
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 1: got you got legit quarterbacks. I got toffto Moans and Trubisky.

694
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, we're gonna we're gonna dedicate to them.

695
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 3: If you can keep your head when all about you

696
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,239
Speaker 3: are losing theirs and blaming it on you. If you

697
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 3: can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make

698
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 3: allowance for they're doubting too. If you can dream and

699
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: not make dreams your master. If you can meet with

700
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 3: triumph and disaster and treat those two impostors just the same.

701
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 3: If you could make one heap of all you're winning

702
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: and risk it on one turn of pitch and toss

703
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 3: and lose, and start again at your beginnings, and never breathe.

704
00:37:42,960 --> 00:37:44,320
Speaker 1: A word about your loss.

705
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 3: If you can fill the unforgiving minute with sixty seconds

706
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: worth of distance run yours is the earth and everything

707
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 3: that's in it, and which is more, you'll be a man.

708
00:37:57,880 --> 00:37:58,319
Speaker 2: My son.

709
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,839
Speaker 1: Listen to him talk all day.

710
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 2: He's the best. I'm gonna write down this your six

711
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 2: pack quarterbacks here and then keep it near the computer,

712
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: and we'll see if anyone will ever top the veto

713
00:38:12,120 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: Bortles Melons. That'll be I mean, right on week fifteen

714
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,279
Speaker 2: twenty three. It will be the new leader in the

715
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 2: clubhouse for yeah's sake, for one of us to reach.

716
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: It's no Beamer, Benz and Bentley I guess.

717
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 2: Hero per chance any of them are starting next year.

718
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: It could all be benched this week.

719
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 2: Yep. Literally during the first get you.

720
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 1: Could get Tyrod, Taylor, Jared Hall or I guess Dobs

721
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,719
Speaker 1: go back to Dobbs and you could get Mason. Each

722
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 1: team has a viable option to replace these dudes. But

723
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 1: I mean, that's twenty twenty three to next show. All right,

724
00:38:42,000 --> 00:38:44,160
Speaker 1: let's get into our favorite total of the week. Last week,

725
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 1: we both had that Bucks Falcons total that went over

726
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: pretty uh easily, though I think there was a time

727
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,240
Speaker 1: there was like a couple of what missfield.

728
00:38:52,960 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 2: Something missed two field goals?

729
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,400
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, and that could.

730
00:38:57,400 --> 00:39:00,520
Speaker 2: That might cost this Falcons plus four hundred. Now, individual,

731
00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 2: I know, I know.

732
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: You wasted a three hundred and fifty yard game from

733
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: desert ridder Jesus, Yeah, so what do you got?

734
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,239
Speaker 2: What do you got for this? I'm gonna go. I'm

735
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,320
Speaker 2: gonna go with the Washington I'm gonna go with the

736
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 2: Commander's rams over. Always do what the lines are when

737
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 2: we're doing this. I did bet forty nine. It just

738
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:22,320
Speaker 2: was fort to announced fifty. Still like it at fifty.

739
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 2: I think this just like last week the totals thirty nine.

740
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:26,840
Speaker 2: I thought it should be, you know, forty two. I

741
00:39:26,880 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 2: think this should be fifty two. Washington defense is horrendous.

742
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 2: It's the worst of the league by any metric that

743
00:39:33,120 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 2: you look at. But since they traded their edge rushers. Look,

744
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,240
Speaker 2: we've seen what Montes Sweat has done for the Bears

745
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 2: to Chase Young's done for the forty nine ers. They

746
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 2: have no edge rush, kind of decent against the run

747
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,280
Speaker 2: still because they have two really good interier defensive linemen

748
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,880
Speaker 2: and their linebackers were bad and coverage are decent. Against

749
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 2: the run. Guess what, that's probably gonna lead to McVeigh

750
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 2: throwing the ballt on here because Stafford and those healthy

751
00:39:54,520 --> 00:39:57,719
Speaker 2: receivers now and not under any pressure, is going to

752
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 2: absolutely cook this Washington d defense that has given up

753
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 2: forty five points in back to back weeks. If you

754
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:09,319
Speaker 2: remove the Patriots game, over their past five games, they've

755
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: allowed thirty seven points per game. I mean, this defense

756
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 2: has no answers on the side of the ball. Of

757
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 2: the Rams defense, bottom ten unit, not anything special. Washington

758
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 2: should get its points here. Dashm should be playing a

759
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 2: comeback mode, just chucking it all around and they look

760
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: Sam how is taking a ton of sacks earlier the

761
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,720
Speaker 2: season still a bit of an issue, but he's basically

762
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 2: cut that in half. And one of the reasons is

763
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: is they took Gates out of the lineup at center

764
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 2: and put Larson in there. It's kind of stabilized things

765
00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 2: a bit. But yeah, they should be a shootout. I

766
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: think the Rams are going to come out. They usually

767
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 2: play fast early on, they'll build a lead. They should

768
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 2: just score well and they're going to pass a lot,

769
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 2: So you're going to see a heavy, heavy pass frequency

770
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,680
Speaker 2: based on the matchup I just don't know how Washington

771
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: went get any stops. Then this Rams defense isn't it

772
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 2: anything to write home about? I think because of the

773
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 2: suppressed scoring environment. I think that's one of the reasons

774
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,759
Speaker 2: why indoors last week there was a thirty nine with

775
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 2: the Falcons Bucks game. You're getting some value on some

776
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 2: of these overs. I just don't think there's been many stops. Like,

777
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 2: there's no reason the Rams shouldn't get to thirty plus,

778
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 2: like everyone has been on this Washington defense that has

779
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 2: a pulse, And so I think I'll call this like,

780
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 2: you know, thirty one twenty at the minimum, but the

781
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 2: Rams of a shot to get to thirty five thirty

782
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:33,399
Speaker 2: eight here and you know, Washington get to twenty four

783
00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 2: to twenty eight. I think this is a shootout.

784
00:41:36,800 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, this this one really sticks out to me. I

785
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,680
Speaker 1: think I think Cooper Cup is finally fully healthy, even

786
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,839
Speaker 1: though he wasn't always on the injury report. You could

787
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 1: tell he wasn't fully healthy earlier in the year, and

788
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 1: Kyen Williams being back. Sean McVay is I think just

789
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 1: very particular when he kind of builds his offense out

790
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: and decides what he's going to do in his whole scheme,

791
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 1: and when he has everybody, that's why he doesn't really

792
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 1: take guys out. I mean most of their most of

793
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 1: the RAMS starters just play almost every snap, and so

794
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 1: when everyone's healthy, that's when this RAM offense starts humming.

795
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 1: And we've last three weeks Stafford shredded the number one

796
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: pass defense and DVA for three touchdowns and no picks,

797
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 1: and then number two pass defense DVAA for three touchdowns

798
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,319
Speaker 1: and no picks Ravens and Browns and back to back weeks.

799
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, now he's got thirty two. So it's I mean,

800
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:29,640
Speaker 1: it's it's a smash spot. I'm gonna go complete opposite.

801
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go Falcons Panthers under thirty five. And I

802
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: just like to buy, or if I like to sell,

803
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 1: high on the Falcons scoring points because their home road

804
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,440
Speaker 1: splits are so drastic, and this has been I mean,

805
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: it makes makes some sense because they do play indoors.

806
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 1: Desmond Ritard just for his career, I mean you even

807
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: go back to college high school, always been a better

808
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,439
Speaker 1: quarterback at home U and not as good on the road.

809
00:42:59,560 --> 00:43:03,560
Speaker 1: For his care year in the NFL, at home seven

810
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 1: point six yards in attempts, which is well above league

811
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,719
Speaker 1: average eighty nine passer rating, sixty seven completion percentage, which

812
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,680
Speaker 1: is also above average. But on the road six yards

813
00:43:13,719 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 1: in attempts a seventy six passer rating, and he's just

814
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: under sixty percent completion. So he essentially turns from like

815
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford into Desmond Ritter when he's on the road

816
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 1: and you have rain in the forecast. Seems to the

817
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: percent chance seems to be going up. It's still still midweeks,

818
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:34,560
Speaker 1: so that could change. But right now it looks at

819
00:43:34,600 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: that sixty six percent chance of rain wins upwards of

820
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 1: fifteen mile miles per hour, and we already noticed Panther team.

821
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,160
Speaker 1: I mean if they if they if the Panthers get

822
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown, they're doing well for themselves. I mean I

823
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 1: was on the Panthers last week and that was just

824
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 1: a mistake. I mean, this team was just incompetent, and

825
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 1: they gave a free seven to New Orleans on a punt.

826
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: They got a punt block. That's not going to happen

827
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: every week. So I don't see the Panthers doing much

828
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: to aid the scoring in this game. Falcons have one

829
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 1: of the top run defenses in the league. So you

830
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 1: know that's what the I mean the Panthers trailing game

831
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:16,799
Speaker 1: script and you know both both of their running backs

832
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:19,880
Speaker 1: are putting up big numbers rushing, running the ball, big

833
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 1: volume numbers. That's kind of where we are with this

834
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 1: Panther team at this point. Division game outdoors and for

835
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:33,800
Speaker 1: what it's worth, totals under total thirty seven or below

836
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: over the last decade. But once it gets cause that's

837
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: once you get past thirty seven, get going lower than that,

838
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: now you're really starting to push the edges of whatever.

839
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: You know, twenty seventeen you lose.

840
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:49,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Like so once you start getting lower than that,

841
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: you know, when books are floating like you know, thirty

842
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 1: fours and thirty fives, that's really pushing the edge of

843
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 1: like the projection model and the standard deviations and all

844
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 1: that stuff. There's usually reason for it, and it's because

845
00:45:02,960 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: you can't you can't go low enough. And to that point,

846
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:11,040
Speaker 1: unders thirty seven or less over the last decade thirty

847
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 1: and twelve to the under, so totals thirty seven or

848
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 1: last thirty and twelve to the under seventy one percent

849
00:45:18,200 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: over the last decade including nine and four this season,

850
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: and I think all of the it's like the three

851
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: losses I think so were last week. You mentioned that

852
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,800
Speaker 1: Jets Texans game, so maybe people might shy away, but

853
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 1: I just don't see many points being scored. Remember Falcons

854
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 1: win at thirteen to eight game against the Jets the

855
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: week before it. Add that's I could see a thirteen

856
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: to ten game. That's what I'll call it. Everything just

857
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: sets up perfectly for the defenses. Yeah, under thirty five

858
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 1: Panthers Choppins. All right, so we got Rams commanders over

859
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 1: fifty Panthers, Falcons under thirty five. That's our totals. Now,

860
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,520
Speaker 1: time for our favorite teaser of the week.

861
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, six point teasers.

862
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 1: Don't don't tease me. Both of us ten and four

863
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: on a year on the pod. On our teasers, some

864
00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: of them have sometimes we go with the same one.

865
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 1: We're doing that this week. Not that many options, So, uh,

866
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 1: where are we going?

867
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:28,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go a little unconventional this week. I

868
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:30,880
Speaker 2: just I just trust the Rams offense to get it

869
00:46:30,960 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 2: done at home against this horrible Washington defense. I'll pair

870
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,280
Speaker 2: that with a very traditional teaser piece in the Steelers

871
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 2: low total, getting cross the three and seven we talked

872
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 2: about that game earlier. So give me Steelers and the Rams.

873
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:52,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, same, same here. Not really many other options that

874
00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:55,359
Speaker 1: I feel comfortable with and that you can tease through

875
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: the three and the seven, which is really where the

876
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: value lies for the most part. So Steelers up to

877
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:06,720
Speaker 1: eight and a half Rams down to minus a half point.

878
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: That's our favorite teaser of week number fifteen. We'll get

879
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 1: into underdogs in a second, but as a reminder, the

880
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:18,320
Speaker 1: Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM. Use bonus

881
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:21,920
Speaker 1: code Action act iown when signing up to get up

882
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 1: to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if

883
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Speaker 1: your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

884
00:47:34,800 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

885
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:42,320
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

886
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:47,479
Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. All right, time

887
00:47:47,600 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 1: for our money line underdog parway. Turning good weekends into

888
00:47:54,920 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. You've

889
00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 1: hit seven, I've only hit three to this. You've been

890
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 1: beefed in Unde. You're actually seven and seven, so that's

891
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: gotta be quite the ROI there. So where are you

892
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:12,000
Speaker 1: going this week?

893
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 2: Uh? Well, maybe I did bet them, so hopefully I'm right,

894
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: because plenty over fandom, but for futures and for my fandom,

895
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 2: this would make me sad. But I'm going to the

896
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 2: Jacksonville Jaguars. I tweeted this out earlier today. I was

897
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:35,359
Speaker 2: going back over my season long stuff and this year

898
00:48:36,080 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 2: I in bills betting bills in Raven's sides. I am

899
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:46,759
Speaker 2: fifteen and one and the one loss obviously when in

900
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 2: Cleveland Ravens at Cleveland when TTR got rolled in. Yeah good.

901
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 2: I think this is a good spot. So at the

902
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 2: Jags at plus three and a half went down to three,

903
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 2: they would have been one of my picks them at

904
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 2: anything over a field goal, there's a good spot to

905
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 2: buy them. I think they'll be healthier on the offensive line,

906
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 2: potentially on defense. Their run defense has actually been better

907
00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 2: than the Ravens run defense this year. And there could

908
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,759
Speaker 2: be major weather here. You could have very high win guts.

909
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 2: I think could get a desperation effort here from the

910
00:49:18,760 --> 00:49:21,759
Speaker 2: Jags and I think the Ravens defense is still a

911
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 2: little bit more vulnerable. Then people realize they have had

912
00:49:25,320 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 2: a very beneficial schedule as far as like who and

913
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 2: when and the backups that they faced. So yeah, give

914
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:36,960
Speaker 2: me the Jags here. This is a good by spot

915
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 2: on Jacksonville. I think there's a little bit of value

916
00:49:39,680 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 2: here at home in primetime against the Ravens.

917
00:49:43,160 --> 00:49:46,120
Speaker 1: It seems like one of those spots where you Ravens,

918
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:48,319
Speaker 1: I mean, they they're probably lucky to win last week.

919
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:50,719
Speaker 1: I mean it took everything they had to seems like

920
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 1: a let down spot for them. And like you said, Jaguars,

921
00:49:54,160 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 1: this Jaguars femail all of a sudden desperate where you're

922
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 1: going for your money on Dog you talked about it

923
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,920
Speaker 1: already Chicago, like them going up against this banged up

924
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,000
Speaker 1: Cleveland team, And I mean we're talking about Joe Flacco

925
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,440
Speaker 1: at age thirty eight, Like you said, statue with a

926
00:50:09,520 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 1: bag or with a banged up O line. You know,

927
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,399
Speaker 1: might blameing minus one forty five on the money line.

928
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 1: I'll take a healthy Bears team with a mobile quarterback,

929
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:23,840
Speaker 1: and uh, probably some value that's just not being accounted

930
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 1: for in the market because it's Bears team. You know,

931
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 1: at one point the Bears are like the joke of

932
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 1: the NFL and every everyone's kind of like, why do

933
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:33,920
Speaker 1: they even trade for Montest What? Now? Ryan Poles kind

934
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:37,400
Speaker 1: of looks like a genius. It's like, you got Carolinas picks,

935
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,440
Speaker 1: You're gonna you're probably getting that top pick regardless you got,

936
00:50:40,600 --> 00:50:44,000
Speaker 1: you fleece them for for DJ Moore in the In

937
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 1: the process, you have the option of you could you

938
00:50:48,120 --> 00:50:49,719
Speaker 1: You're wide open in terms of what you could do

939
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 1: at quarterback, like you could keep fields and draft the

940
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 1: guy and you know, do it that way. You could

941
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 1: trade them for more assets, and you just kind of

942
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 1: gave the team some confident and I think you got

943
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 1: a better evaluation of some of the guys on defense

944
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,320
Speaker 1: now that you have like a past, like some semblance

945
00:51:06,320 --> 00:51:09,080
Speaker 1: of a pass or us. So, yeah, I like what

946
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: the Bear teams doing. So I'm going with the Bears

947
00:51:11,840 --> 00:51:15,479
Speaker 1: plus one forty five. If you parlay those two together

948
00:51:15,600 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 1: Jacksonville plus one forty Bears plus one forty five, you

949
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:22,160
Speaker 1: get plus four eighty eight odds. So pretty juicy. But

950
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 1: at this point, make sure you're better individually, because stuck

951
00:51:26,160 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 1: you've been, You've been a lot. You've been hitting them

952
00:51:28,680 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 1: these a lot more. It's like my thing was the survivor.

953
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 1: Your thing has been these money line dogs. So good

954
00:51:33,320 --> 00:51:37,480
Speaker 1: stuff on that. Now let's go to the best of

955
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:40,960
Speaker 1: the rest. Games we haven't covered in any other segment,

956
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 1: but are still, as they say, meaningful to some That's

957
00:51:47,120 --> 00:51:49,320
Speaker 1: gonna be a touchdown, but that may be meaningful to

958
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:52,799
Speaker 1: some of you, so you know what I mean. Also,

959
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,279
Speaker 1: I gotta say we were talking about al Michaels and

960
00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 1: giving him I think you say, give him the old

961
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 1: yellow treatment, take them out back. But I hurked up

962
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 1: a little bit. Last few weeks. He's been he's been better.

963
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:04,840
Speaker 1: So they also took him off the playoffs.

964
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 2: I heard. That's what I'm saying. Someone did take him

965
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 2: out because.

966
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah he did. He's probably heard the criticism and

967
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:14,080
Speaker 1: maybe he's tried to ramp it up. But Thursday nights

968
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 1: have been a lot. But I still still hoyer. Yeah, yeah,

969
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 1: it might. He might go back to sleep for this one.

970
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 2: You know. Do you know the worst announcing crew right now?

971
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: And I really like Creig Olsen, by the way, some

972
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 2: people don't like I don't know why. Let me let me,

973
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:30,880
Speaker 2: let me guess okay, I.

974
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,560
Speaker 1: Think it's either gonna be the one with Charles Davis

975
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 1: or the one with Vil wa Is it one of

976
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 1: those two?

977
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 2: No? No, okay, what you got Kevin Coogler and Mark Sanchez?

978
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 1: Really? I like Mark Sanchez. He's like just goofy and

979
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:47,359
Speaker 1: like normal enough to like it doesn't annoy me. What's

980
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,440
Speaker 1: your beef with Coogler and Sanchez? He just is it sanchiz?

981
00:52:50,520 --> 00:52:52,479
Speaker 2: But I just don't know. I just when I'm watching

982
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 2: the game, I'm just it's just I like it. I'm

983
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:58,240
Speaker 2: just not excited, and I don't know. There's just something

984
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:02,399
Speaker 2: that's off about them. It's all personal preference. You gotta

985
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 2: flush that thing down the toilet like your goldfish in

986
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 2: fourth grade.

987
00:53:05,200 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 1: Man, that thing's dead and gone. So we got the

988
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 1: bucks at the packers. Packers are three and a half

989
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:15,080
Speaker 1: point favorites. The totals forty one and a half. Questionable

990
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 1: for the Green Bay offense are Christian Watson and Doan

991
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 1: Tavian Wicks. That wide out Aaron Jones is like the

992
00:53:20,560 --> 00:53:23,759
Speaker 1: new Shaquille Leonard, like doesn't even exist. I don't know.

993
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,759
Speaker 1: He comes in and game and gets beat up and

994
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:30,720
Speaker 1: then doesn't play for another three weeks. Jaya Alexander. Also,

995
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 1: what's going on? Does the Packers just not want to

996
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:36,200
Speaker 1: use the injured reserve because I feel like they have

997
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 1: guys who missed, like more more than four weeks who

998
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 1: just continue to be on the injury report. But yeah,

999
00:53:41,360 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 1: those guys are all questionable Kwaate Walker as well. And

1000
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 1: then for the Bucks, you know Dean Is he missed

1001
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 1: last week, Vitevea and Devin White, So those guys are

1002
00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,799
Speaker 1: you know, we'll see what happens with them. But three

1003
00:53:53,840 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 1: and a half forty one and a half, I don't know.

1004
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:00,319
Speaker 1: It's it's kind of like, I guess a Bible spawn

1005
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: in Green Bay, but without with all these injuries, I

1006
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 1: can't really do anything. What are you any thoughts on

1007
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 1: this one?

1008
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:06,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a good line. Those are three I'd looked

1009
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 2: about Green Bay, So, uh, I'm looking to this buckstealing,

1010
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 2: not a buyern I was looking to fade them, but

1011
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 2: I would need a field goal, so if it gets

1012
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 2: down there, depending on the injury situation, that's what I'll

1013
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:24,239
Speaker 2: look to buy. By the way, I didn't uh, I

1014
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 2: didn't mention this for the Cowboys Bills game, Cowboys averaging

1015
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,839
Speaker 2: forty points per game at home, twenty on the road,

1016
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: sort of like the Browns O D splits that doesn't

1017
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,399
Speaker 2: get talked about enough. Falcon they're twenty points per game

1018
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:41,000
Speaker 2: less on the road. Obviously, the small saplade you get

1019
00:54:41,040 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 2: a couple of games, but it's pretty crazy. But no,

1020
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: I think green Bay it's a good line. Three and

1021
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 2: a half, that's where it should be.

1022
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, but green Bay is a pretty solid team obviously,

1023
00:54:51,600 --> 00:54:53,960
Speaker 1: just they're one of those teams that could beat anyone,

1024
00:54:54,120 --> 00:54:56,640
Speaker 1: unloose to anyone, as we've seen in the last couple

1025
00:54:56,680 --> 00:54:58,800
Speaker 1: of weeks. But yeah, injuries are what it's going to

1026
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 1: really come down to this bus defenses. I mean, even

1027
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 1: if he's down Wix and Watson, I mean, Jayden Reed

1028
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,320
Speaker 1: has been playing well, Dobb's been playing well, Tucker Craft's

1029
00:55:06,320 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 1: been playing well. I could see green Bay still winning

1030
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,319
Speaker 1: by margin here, but tough to way, you know, three

1031
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 1: in the hook coming off a loss to the Giants.

1032
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 1: But speaking of tough losses, Miami lost a tough one

1033
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 1: to Tennessee and Houston lost c J. Strouds a concussion protocol,

1034
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 1: so protocol, so we'll see about that. But right now,

1035
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:32,040
Speaker 1: two and a half is the line the total thirty eight.

1036
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 1: The Titans are favored against the Texans at home. Wait,

1037
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 1: some key injuries for the Houston defense. You know, just

1038
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 1: when I was ready to buy it on the Houston defense, Hey,

1039
00:55:43,120 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 1: now they get they keep getting hurt. I mean, Houston

1040
00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 1: just I don't know what's going on. It's guys can't

1041
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:50,520
Speaker 1: stay healthy. But Blake Cashman rated the top five linebacker,

1042
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:53,359
Speaker 1: I mean not linebackers aren't massive, but still a good

1043
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 1: player for their defense. He's doubtful. And then Tavere Thomas,

1044
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 1: who you know plays in the you know, plays in

1045
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:03,319
Speaker 1: second married some special teams. He's he was highly rated

1046
00:56:03,360 --> 00:56:05,480
Speaker 1: as well graded out and he's doubt for. And then

1047
00:56:05,520 --> 00:56:10,320
Speaker 1: he got Stroud, Nico Collins, Dalton Schaltz questionable. Will Anderson's

1048
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 1: popped up an injury report as well. So a lot

1049
00:56:13,280 --> 00:56:15,279
Speaker 1: of injuries for the Texas. Tights have been a lot

1050
00:56:15,360 --> 00:56:19,719
Speaker 1: better at home. But at the same time, it's kind

1051
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:23,400
Speaker 1: of seems like one of those chasing last week Prime

1052
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 1: Time with the Titans. I don't know what are you

1053
00:56:25,760 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 1: doing with this one?

1054
00:56:26,920 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 2: I mean gonna play kind.

1055
00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, we don't know. Yeah, probably, Like I said, they

1056
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:34,160
Speaker 1: seem to be more lenient with the protocol later in

1057
00:56:34,200 --> 00:56:34,440
Speaker 1: the year.

1058
00:56:35,040 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't do anything with this game now with

1059
00:56:38,239 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 2: his status and all the other injuries too, and Texas

1060
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:48,759
Speaker 2: has been so explosive this year, and but Collins and

1061
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:56,359
Speaker 2: Dell were place, so uh yeah, it's pretty crazy. Yeah,

1062
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:59,000
Speaker 2: you can't do anything here with all the injury uncertainty.

1063
00:57:00,080 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 2: By the way, I should have mentioned that the just

1064
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,239
Speaker 2: the NFC South, like I want to fad the Bucks

1065
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,840
Speaker 2: eleven and twenty five against the spread versus other divisions

1066
00:57:07,880 --> 00:57:10,800
Speaker 2: this year forty six, seventy nine and two over the

1067
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:13,840
Speaker 2: past three years. This year, they owned three of the

1068
00:57:13,960 --> 00:57:16,040
Speaker 2: four worst teams against the spread in the NFL. Bucks

1069
00:57:16,080 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 2: are eight and five and spread. I'm looking to pad them,

1070
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 2: but I need three with the Packers game, I just

1071
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: wanted to I forgot to mention that note. But yeah,

1072
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 2: nothing in Houston, Tennessee's too much uncertainty right now.

1073
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 1: And then so then you got this Miami team hosting

1074
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 1: the Jets, and Miami favored by eight and a half

1075
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 1: to total down to thirty seven and a half. I mean,

1076
00:57:35,080 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 1: I came up on the wrong side of that Jet

1077
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 1: game last week. I mean, injuries obviously didn't help but

1078
00:57:41,040 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 1: I don't know, is it chasing to back the Jets. Yeah,

1079
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:48,440
Speaker 1: I mean I just feel like Miami, you know, no,

1080
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:55,800
Speaker 1: Toronto Armstead most likely ankle issue. Connor Williams doubtful, top

1081
00:57:55,840 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 1: graded center in the league, Robert hunt Out the top

1082
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:08,240
Speaker 1: five graded guard in the league. Tyreek Hill ankle injury questionable.

1083
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:12,760
Speaker 1: But see it seems like he's might not be one

1084
00:58:12,800 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 1: hundred per If he's not one hundred percent, I don't know, Like,

1085
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if you put him back out there.

1086
00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 1: I mean they tried to do it to make sure

1087
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:22,960
Speaker 1: they didn't like lot like completely blow that game, and

1088
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 1: they blew it anyway last week. But I mean this

1089
00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 1: Dolphin team would be a completely This would be the

1090
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 1: the Brian Flores to a offense like with with all

1091
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 1: these guys hurt. So I don't mean it should I

1092
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:36,960
Speaker 1: be back in the Jets here or what do you think?

1093
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Jets or nothing. But I mean at the spot,

1094
00:58:40,760 --> 00:58:42,600
Speaker 2: is Miami like they have that bad loss, the Jets

1095
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 2: have that win over Houston. But yeah, there's a couple

1096
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 2: of things here with Miami. They are so hurt their

1097
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 2: offense and to a Canaday's awful under pressure he can't

1098
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:52,680
Speaker 2: evade any.

1099
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:55,760
Speaker 1: He just runs in his lineman's back. Yeah, he's terrible.

1100
00:58:55,920 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 2: He's like, oh my goodness, And is all you saw

1101
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:03,800
Speaker 2: with that that Titans defensive line did once those injuries happened. Yeah,

1102
00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 2: and the sow you're going up against that Jets front,

1103
00:59:08,600 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 2: So it could and if it's it's so big because

1104
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:13,800
Speaker 2: Armstead gonna play like you could down Armstead. The Hunt's

1105
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 2: gonna be out, and Connor Williams is out. I mean

1106
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 2: that would be massive bit of hills. Yeah, this offense

1107
00:59:19,320 --> 00:59:21,240
Speaker 2: then is nothing. I mean you just double waddle and

1108
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: then you're trying to throw it to you know, River

1109
00:59:24,720 --> 00:59:28,800
Speaker 2: Crankcraft and Braxton Barrios. Uh, you know, it's basically becomes

1110
00:59:28,840 --> 00:59:36,120
Speaker 2: like the Panthers. So yeah, I it's Jets are nothing.

1111
00:59:36,200 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 2: There's also some defensive injuries like the we saw already

1112
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 2: Jalen Phillips, he's out. We saw the impact of his loss.

1113
00:59:44,720 --> 00:59:48,520
Speaker 2: Like they just are completely reliant now on Chubb getting

1114
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:52,120
Speaker 2: to the quarterback. They're down to like Channing Tindall at linebacker.

1115
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 2: They're both their safeties were out last week, Elliott and Holland.

1116
00:59:56,760 --> 01:00:01,680
Speaker 2: Holland's really important. He's going to try to play, so

1117
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:04,960
Speaker 2: there's a lot of uncertainty if it got Yeah, I

1118
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 2: wanted ten with the Jets. There's also the other thing

1119
01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 2: Ia mentioned wins. There could be twenty five to thirty

1120
01:00:12,600 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 2: mile an hour sustained wins. This could be the highest

1121
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 2: weather impact game of the of the week. I don't

1122
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 2: even know who that would favor. More depends on Tyreek's

1123
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:25,040
Speaker 2: playing or not. So yeah, I would lean under here

1124
01:00:25,520 --> 01:00:27,400
Speaker 2: with all the injuries that the Dolphins are dealing with

1125
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 2: still Zach Wilson and the weather, and then I would

1126
01:00:30,320 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 2: I would lean Jets. I also maybe I consider Jets

1127
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:36,240
Speaker 2: for my money line dog because of all those injuries

1128
01:00:36,560 --> 01:00:40,640
Speaker 2: and the weather, and if Hill doesn't go the Dolphins

1129
01:00:40,680 --> 01:00:42,600
Speaker 2: literally defense, the difference is massive.

1130
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 1: Just two It's just two defenses going against.

1131
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 2: Three offensive linemen. Yeah, so it's Jets are nothing small

1132
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:52,400
Speaker 2: into the under as well.

1133
01:00:54,880 --> 01:00:55,880
Speaker 1: And then we got the.

1134
01:00:58,240 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 2: Cheap Spats.

1135
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Chiefs pass and then Niners Cardinals will go chief

1136
01:01:02,840 --> 01:01:08,480
Speaker 1: Pets first nine and a half. The Pats are getting

1137
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:13,640
Speaker 1: at home. The total is thirty seven Chiefs main injuries,

1138
01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:18,120
Speaker 1: Pa Checko, Donovan Smith, Patriots. I mean, we've had a

1139
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:20,480
Speaker 1: bunch of guys banged up on offense, you never know

1140
01:01:20,560 --> 01:01:25,040
Speaker 1: which receivers are going to play. I would personally mean

1141
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:29,400
Speaker 1: under in this one. You've got sean hockey refin always

1142
01:01:29,440 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 1: a great under ref thirty one and eight to the under,

1143
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:38,600
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent when the totals below forty five, twenty

1144
01:01:38,680 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 1: and five to the under, when the home team isn't

1145
01:01:41,960 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 1: favored in sixty percent to the under overall for in

1146
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 1: hockey league games, So like that. But I don't know,

1147
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:51,760
Speaker 1: it's another one of these situations where it's am I

1148
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 1: a week too late with you know, because the Patriots,

1149
01:01:54,360 --> 01:01:59,760
Speaker 1: you know, they beat the Steelers and then the uh yeah,

1150
01:02:00,080 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: Chiefs will continue to look broken on offense in the

1151
01:02:03,120 --> 01:02:05,960
Speaker 1: most embarrassing type of ways. But I mean, at some

1152
01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:10,680
Speaker 1: point the Chiefs are gonna just not completely vomit away

1153
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,040
Speaker 1: all their scoring opportunities, right, I just I don't know

1154
01:02:14,120 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 1: what to do with this. What do you what do

1155
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 1: you think?

1156
01:02:16,680 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1157
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 2: I think they're dead last and EPA giving up on

1158
01:02:19,120 --> 01:02:23,920
Speaker 2: penalties and turnovers. I this is a perfect line to me.

1159
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 2: If it was ten, i'd consider pages. I don't trust

1160
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 2: this Chiefs seem to win by margin. It was seven,

1161
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:34,440
Speaker 2: I would back the Chiefs. Maybe Chiefs are if it

1162
01:02:34,480 --> 01:02:39,959
Speaker 2: gets down to seven and specifically eight, an interesting teaser piece,

1163
01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:43,440
Speaker 2: but I think between seven and ten perfect range for

1164
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 2: this line.

1165
01:02:44,280 --> 01:02:48,080
Speaker 1: Nothing for me, Yeah, I do, I do lean under,

1166
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:49,960
Speaker 1: but it is the Chiefs, so I just there could

1167
01:02:49,960 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 1: be some regression coming, you know, they just get like

1168
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 1: lead points away on just silly yes and the pack.

1169
01:02:57,120 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 1: But the paper's defense is pretty good. But uh, Niners

1170
01:03:02,920 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 1: at the Cardinals. Cardinals plus thirteen and a half at home,

1171
01:03:07,560 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 1: forty eight is the total. Niners do have some injuries

1172
01:03:10,840 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 1: on defense, Travarious Ward, Eric Armstead, we'll see about them,

1173
01:03:16,160 --> 01:03:20,520
Speaker 1: Green Laws, herd Arn Burkes. So it's nine of defense

1174
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:27,800
Speaker 1: maybe not quite you know, up to snuff. But Cardinals,

1175
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:30,480
Speaker 1: I mean, Marcus Brown still there in practice, Like I

1176
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 1: just don't know where this Cardinal offense is that coming

1177
01:03:33,080 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 1: out of the buy if they don't have Brown and

1178
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,480
Speaker 1: Wilson are two top receivers, which we don't We're we're

1179
01:03:38,520 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 1: not exactly sure what's going on with them. But you know,

1180
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:44,160
Speaker 1: we're talking about thirteen and a half on the road.

1181
01:03:44,200 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 1: But then Kyler Murray for whatever reason, has been terrible

1182
01:03:47,680 --> 01:03:49,640
Speaker 1: in the division at home, just three and nine against

1183
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 1: the spread. Small sample, but you tend like Kyler Murray

1184
01:03:53,160 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: tends to do really well against the spread as is

1185
01:03:55,560 --> 01:03:57,919
Speaker 1: on the road and be bad at home. I don't

1186
01:03:57,920 --> 01:03:59,480
Speaker 1: know if that's going to carry over to the new

1187
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 1: coaching staff for what. So another game that I'm really

1188
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 1: just not don't see anything that I'm personally going to

1189
01:04:04,920 --> 01:04:06,600
Speaker 1: be doing with it. But what are you thinking?

1190
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:10,960
Speaker 2: Yeah? Depending on that. I mean, I made this round thirteen,

1191
01:04:12,800 --> 01:04:15,880
Speaker 2: but with the Sampsusco injuries, it's not a great spot.

1192
01:04:16,320 --> 01:04:17,880
Speaker 2: You know, they basically just clinched the division. They have

1193
01:04:17,920 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 2: the Ravens next, so they're always good in the script,

1194
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 2: and this Arizona d is horrendous. So San fran has

1195
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:26,560
Speaker 2: a couple of these d guys out, they get the

1196
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:32,440
Speaker 2: ball first, go up seven, nothing, I'll entertain, just thrown

1197
01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 2: a little bit on Arizona live at a number of

1198
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 2: above two touchdowns, big backdoor risk here. I don't think

1199
01:04:39,240 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 2: the Niners have a lot of interest in blowing this

1200
01:04:41,840 --> 01:04:43,920
Speaker 2: wide open. And if they have some defensive injuries out

1201
01:04:44,960 --> 01:04:47,480
Speaker 2: or you can have some success. So yeah, if it

1202
01:04:47,560 --> 01:04:51,280
Speaker 2: got to fourteen, I'd consider Arizona pre game, but I

1203
01:04:51,400 --> 01:04:55,080
Speaker 2: might depending on the injury reports. I might just wait

1204
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:56,960
Speaker 2: to see if San franc goes up seven nothing, which

1205
01:04:56,960 --> 01:05:00,880
Speaker 2: I usually do, and then look to maybe get Arizona live.

1206
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 2: But other than that, as of now, it's a pass.

1207
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, because like all these elite teams, like you know,

1208
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,520
Speaker 1: you're seeing it with the Eagles. You know, San Francisco

1209
01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:13,920
Speaker 1: is probably gonna have one one like let down ish

1210
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:16,080
Speaker 1: kind of spot at some point, with a sleepy spot

1211
01:05:16,120 --> 01:05:18,840
Speaker 1: where they could still win. Maybe this is the game.

1212
01:05:19,240 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 1: You know, we saw Baltimore kind of do it against

1213
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. We saw Dallas let Seattle get way too close.

1214
01:05:25,480 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 2: So Arizona huh.

1215
01:05:29,280 --> 01:05:31,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was yeah, that was way right now. But

1216
01:05:31,760 --> 01:05:34,920
Speaker 1: I'm saying, wait, in a year, they usually it's hard

1217
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: for a team like San Francisco. It's been so good

1218
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 1: a year to keep rolling like right through. So that's

1219
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, Like that some team's gonna cover on

1220
01:05:44,520 --> 01:05:47,120
Speaker 1: them with one of these big spreads. And is this

1221
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:48,520
Speaker 1: the last one of the year, because you said who

1222
01:05:48,560 --> 01:05:50,640
Speaker 1: they got Baltimore and then who's who else they got?

1223
01:05:52,120 --> 01:05:59,320
Speaker 2: The Rams left and uh, the command they're at the commanders, Yeah.

1224
01:05:59,280 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 1: Like one of those like probably the commanders, the RAM,

1225
01:06:02,600 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 1: I mean the Rams, the Niners always owned the Rams,

1226
01:06:04,920 --> 01:06:07,480
Speaker 1: but the commanders of the Carners, I would bet one

1227
01:06:07,520 --> 01:06:10,880
Speaker 1: of those two is gonna cover. So maybe, uh, you know,

1228
01:06:10,960 --> 01:06:12,400
Speaker 1: maybe you kind of look at it from that angle.

1229
01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's just let you know, now, I mean,

1230
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 1: that's but that I wouldn't call that like a letdown

1231
01:06:21,360 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 1: in the same way.

1232
01:06:22,680 --> 01:06:24,240
Speaker 2: I didn't say to let that. I'm just putting it

1233
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:24,600
Speaker 2: out there.

1234
01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:27,520
Speaker 1: Oh, I mean, what are you fifteen to one? You

1235
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:30,360
Speaker 1: said with Ravens, and uh, I.

1236
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 2: Think the Raves is gonna lose this week and then

1237
01:06:32,800 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 2: I think they beat the forty nine ers.

1238
01:06:35,920 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 1: On that note, that is a rap for us. Thanks

1239
01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:42,439
Speaker 1: for listening. We'll be back here every Thursday all season long.

1240
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:45,360
Speaker 1: You can hear more of myself this week with my

1241
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 1: guy Sean Kerner talking fantasy dfs all that good stuff

1242
01:06:48,800 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Flex Podcast, and of course Stuck is

1243
01:06:52,880 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 1: over talking college football on the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

1244
01:06:56,360 --> 01:06:59,000
Speaker 1: You can find Stuck on X at Stucky too. I'm

1245
01:06:59,000 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 1: at Chriss Raybond rat those same handles on a free

1246
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:06,640
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app. Until next time, Let's get

1247
01:07:06,680 --> 01:07:08,120
Speaker 1: this money let go.

1248
01:07:15,640 --> 01:07:19,680
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1249
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:22,240
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1250
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:25,080
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