Speaker 1: Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi.
Speaker 1: It is time for our early look at next week's lines,
Speaker 1: and with me today to break it all down is
Speaker 1: Andrew Kyley, a senior publishing editor It Covers. You can
Speaker 1: find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That is c. A. L. E. Y. Andrew,
Speaker 1: Thanks for coming back on the show. How you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing very well. Thanks for having me back. I'm excited.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we had a great time talking earlier this year,
Speaker 1: and I'm really happy to have you on for what
Speaker 1: I think might be the most difficult Monday show of
Speaker 1: the entire year. With the trade deadline just around the corner,
Speaker 1: I think some of the lines may swing you wildly.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 1: Look, it shows how much faith I have in you
Speaker 1: personally to want you to be on the Yeah, it
Speaker 1: is a lot of pressure, but I know you're going
Speaker 1: to deliver. Look, we've already seen some you know, we'll
Speaker 1: talk about it. With the Joe Flacco injury that you know,
Speaker 1: Broncos Brown Blind has swung wildly, which you know goes
Speaker 1: to show you, know, when you've got essentially a four
Speaker 1: point swing when you lose Joe Flacco, that really shows
Speaker 1: you the quality of the backup quarterback. But we will
Speaker 1: get into that and every other game on the Week
Speaker 1: nine slate. Now we're going to be using the consensus
Speaker 1: odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless this is your
Speaker 1: first time listening, you know that consensus odds are an
Speaker 1: aggregation of the odds that are available on the market.
Speaker 1: As always, there are going to be differences in almost
Speaker 1: every sports book, so shop around for the best odds.
Speaker 1: And if you ever want to see how any of
Speaker 1: the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given
Speaker 1: bet at any given time, Betting pros dot Com is
Speaker 1: going to show you that too. All right, Andrew, let
Speaker 1: us not waste any time. Let's dive right in here
Speaker 1: with the forty nine Ers at the Cardinals on Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Right now, the line is at forty nine ers minus ten.
Speaker 1: When I first looked ahead, it was seven and a half.
Speaker 1: The over unders at forty four and a half. Now,
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers come off an absolutely dominant performance
Speaker 1: against the Anthers on Sunday. I was certainly one of
Speaker 1: the many who liked the Panthers getting anywhere between five
Speaker 1: and six. Emmanuel Sender's already proven he's worthy worth the
Speaker 1: addition with the touchdown, but really it's the first time
Speaker 1: they showed something with the running game since Kyle Yuschek
Speaker 1: went down. Tevin Coleman scores three touchdowns on the ground.
Speaker 1: Matt Rida dealing with an ankle injury a little bit,
Speaker 1: but sounds like he's going to be okay. The defense
Speaker 1: remains outstanding. As for the Cardinals A Nick Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's okay. All yeah.
Speaker 2: They had well, especially yesterday they were just really all
Speaker 2: over Kyle Allen and on the.
Speaker 1: Other side of the ball, Cardinals continue to struggle in
Speaker 1: the red zone a little bit. They make the trade
Speaker 1: today for Kenyan Drake, so he's likely going right into
Speaker 1: the fire. David Johnson is almost certainly going to miss
Speaker 1: this game. Chase Edmonds is out for multiple weeks, so
Speaker 1: it's almost certain that Drake is going to get the
Speaker 1: start here. For me, I'm a little less worried about
Speaker 1: the impact when running backs get traded, although it's a
Speaker 1: super short week so who really knows. But much bigger
Speaker 1: deal from you when receivers get traded, so Drake should
Speaker 1: be able to get back in. He's a good pass catcher.
Speaker 1: That's gonna help because they're going to play in from behind.
Speaker 1: The defense is a little better with Patrick Peterson back,
Speaker 1: but overall it's certainly difficult to see them winning the game.
Speaker 1: So how do you feel right now with the line
Speaker 1: currently at forty nine ers minus ten on the road
Speaker 1: to the Cardinals with an over under at forty.
Speaker 2: Four and a half. If you want them, I'd say
Speaker 2: go after them now, Like I don't see it getting
Speaker 2: any and the number going back towards the Cardinals' favor
Speaker 2: before kickoff. Maybe Peterson gets traded. I know they haven't
Speaker 2: said much about Peterson, but he could be gone too
Speaker 2: before the game, so that would be a big issue
Speaker 2: as well.
Speaker 1: I honestly, I don't understand the trade, not that you know,
Speaker 1: not to get into it too much, but I don't
Speaker 1: really get it. I mean that you know, the Cardinals
Speaker 1: are kind of hanging in their record wise because they've
Speaker 1: beaten up on some light teams. But yeah, why are
Speaker 1: you trading for Kenyan Drake? I mean, I don't like
Speaker 1: pick up a guy off the Street. You know, they
Speaker 1: had Alfred Morris, they had Zach Zentner, Like, why give
Speaker 1: up any draft capital for a guy when you have
Speaker 1: David Nnsen for the future, Unless I could mean David
Speaker 1: Johnson is seriously.
Speaker 2: Worse than it's correct, then they're letting on. I don't
Speaker 2: know how much power does Cliff Kingsbury have there as well,
Speaker 2: that's a question. I know the GM there hasn't made
Speaker 2: the most sound decisions there the last few years, but
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's it's hard to have faith in
Speaker 2: both of them. It seems. I really liked the way
Speaker 2: the Coldinals were playing last weekend'st the Saints up until
Speaker 2: Kingsbury decided to go for it on that really weird.
Speaker 1: Hey, he'd do it again, he'd just call a better play,
Speaker 1: that was what he said today. So I don't know
Speaker 1: what to make of it.
Speaker 2: I don't I don't know. The defense played pretty well,
Speaker 2: like you said, Peterson's back Chandler Jones has played pretty
Speaker 2: well the last few weeks. But I just I can't
Speaker 2: have any faith. And like you said about the Niners,
Speaker 2: everyone's everyone's rolling. Coleman is rolling. Sanders looks like a
Speaker 2: great fit, like there's there's no I can't give you
Speaker 2: a good reason to take the Cardinals unless it gets
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: They're gonna Look, look, this has moved significantly because I'm
Speaker 1: sure everybody is pounding pounding the forty nine ers at
Speaker 1: this point. Thursday games are always a little difficult because
Speaker 1: you never know how team is going to respond right
Speaker 1: to the lack of rest and everything like that. This
Speaker 1: certainly is a game where the forty nine ers should
Speaker 1: have it well in hand at ten. I mean, they're
Speaker 1: just begging you right now to take the Cardinals. I honestly,
Speaker 1: I mean, you said you'd take it now. I could
Speaker 1: see it getting past the key number, just because I
Speaker 1: could see. I don't know if this number is enough
Speaker 1: to get better is to be like, yeah, now I
Speaker 1: trust the Cardinals at this point.
Speaker 2: They just you know, so you know, people love that
Speaker 2: that undefeated as long as the team is not the Patriots.
Speaker 2: People love like the public loves like that undefeated storyline.
Speaker 2: Yeah they're also not has been a really good bet
Speaker 2: this year too, at five and two eight's it probably
Speaker 2: should be six and one ats. Yeah, that Washington game.
Speaker 1: The Monsoon game, I know, that was one of my
Speaker 1: picks the nine and a half. I was all over it.
Speaker 2: Well, if you it would have probably cashed if not
Speaker 2: for that monsoon.
Speaker 1: So I don't think we could say probably. I think
Speaker 1: that's a definite cash right there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you can feel better about your pick then.
Speaker 1: You know, that's exactly what my boss said. He was like,
Speaker 1: you know, it was a good process. I'm like, that
Speaker 1: does not make me feel.
Speaker 2: Any feel better about this.
Speaker 1: But anyway, I think in the end, at this line,
Speaker 1: I don't think either one of us feels comfortable at
Speaker 1: minus ten either way. Really, I don't really know if
Speaker 1: it's going to move. I mean it's moved significantly. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be right around here. But this
Speaker 1: is not a game either at the over under or
Speaker 1: the line that I am particularly targeting. Let's move on
Speaker 1: here to the Texans at the Jaguars. It's currently Texans
Speaker 1: minus three. It was Texans minus one and a half
Speaker 1: at the look a headline when I saw it. The
Speaker 1: over unders at forty seven. The Texans survive against the Raiders,
Speaker 1: a close game. They do lose JJ Watt to a
Speaker 1: torn peck. You know, I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know how much of a difference that's going
Speaker 1: to make. I mean I didn't. To me, it didn't
Speaker 1: seem like what was making that much of an impact.
Speaker 1: But of course it is a loss otherwise, kind.
Speaker 2: Of just g and they they they haven't gotten to
Speaker 2: the quarterback all year long. Right, as much as he
Speaker 2: isn't the guy that he has been in the past,
Speaker 2: you still have to account for him. And that's still
Speaker 2: a loss for them, and that could mean good news
Speaker 2: for minshew Mania.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I look, he came back, you know, in prime
Speaker 1: fashion this weekend against the Jets. I believe you threw
Speaker 1: for three touchdowns. And I mean that wasn't a competitive
Speaker 1: game that the Jaguar sacked Sam Darnold eight times. I
Speaker 1: don't really know if you can take anything from it,
Speaker 1: just because the Jets are in such disarray here.
Speaker 2: So look, we can get into that later.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we will never talk about that as a Jets fan,
Speaker 1: I am scrapping it from the show. But so here
Speaker 1: we've got the Texans now laying three again. This has
Speaker 1: moved I liked it when it was Texans laying one
Speaker 1: and a half. I think I felt relatively comfortable with
Speaker 1: them at the key number of three. I'm not really
Speaker 1: certain how great I feel in the over UNDERD forty seven,
Speaker 1: any reaction to that.
Speaker 2: So this is a London game. Remember this is we
Speaker 2: get another all day football day this week, so it's
Speaker 2: the nine o'clock game. This is theres the Jags seventh
Speaker 2: straight season playing in London, and I think there has
Speaker 2: to be some sort of advantage to that. Houston has
Speaker 2: never done the London trip, and look at teams like Chicago,
Speaker 2: who's staff and never done that before, and they were like, oh,
Speaker 2: let's just go Friday. Let's let's see how that goes.
Speaker 1: Such a great point, such a great point.
Speaker 2: And then they lose to Oakland and the Bears just
Speaker 2: haven't looked the same since.
Speaker 1: For and Oakland, by the way, went out early in
Speaker 1: the week, right, Yes, that was it. And I remember
Speaker 1: thinking about that game and being like, man, this looks
Speaker 1: like such a spot for the Bears given the spread.
Speaker 1: And I think I was probably under selling the Raiders
Speaker 1: to be fair, because they have played a little better,
Speaker 1: particularly offensively, But that when I saw that, I was like,
Speaker 1: why are you going out so late? I mean, that's
Speaker 1: that's off.
Speaker 2: I was shocked. There's a huge Bears fan in our
Speaker 2: office and we had a big, big debate about it,
Speaker 2: and he's like, no, no, no, this is fine. I
Speaker 2: was like, I don't know about that, and it didn't
Speaker 2: turn out to be fine. And I don't know the
Speaker 2: Texans I was trying to find it. I don't know
Speaker 2: their travel schedule. I don't know if they've left already
Speaker 2: or if they're they're already. But I know the Jags
Speaker 2: always every year they're there for the full week and
Speaker 2: they get a climb, they get a climatized, they know
Speaker 2: the routine now, they're used to it, and there's got
Speaker 2: to be something said for that. They've before last last
Speaker 2: year's lost to Philly, they had covered in one straight
Speaker 2: in London. So I don't know, it's it's our Deshaun
Speaker 2: Watson's obviously an MVP candidate right now. Just that touchdown
Speaker 2: was in the same by the way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's how it works. You have one eye,
Speaker 1: you can do anything, Watson.
Speaker 2: It's gonna be interesting because Houston's good against the run.
Speaker 2: The Jacks have done most of their damage things to our
Speaker 2: resurgent Leonard Fournett. Yeah, so it's for me if that goes,
Speaker 2: If it goes beyond a field goal. I think I
Speaker 2: think i'd lean towards the Jaguars, but right now I'm not.
Speaker 2: I'm not comfortable in uh in either way. I just
Speaker 2: I just I really think there's an advantage. The Jaguars
Speaker 2: have an advantage here that that that can't be overlooked.
Speaker 1: It's a really great point about them going out there
Speaker 1: all the time. I mean, I flew out there to
Speaker 1: see the Jets play the Dolphins a couple of years ago,
Speaker 1: and I flew out into Friday and I was totally exhausted,
Speaker 1: So I mean that should really translate now. The one
Speaker 1: thing I look at here is I kind of like
Speaker 1: the under. At least it not not a huge thing,
Speaker 1: but right I mean, I feel like the travel the
Speaker 1: teams aren't going to be super sharp, and that can
Speaker 1: cut both ways, but I feel like generally the first
Speaker 1: time they played it was a really close, low scoring game.
Speaker 1: I could kind of see the defenses coming out to
Speaker 1: play here. So with the forty seven, which you know
Speaker 1: is fairly on the high side, my initial gut says,
Speaker 1: if you like, I kind of like the under, but
Speaker 1: not not strongly, but it's definitely something that that kind
Speaker 1: of calls out to me more than the spread. Let's
Speaker 1: move on here to the Bears at the Eagles. The
Speaker 1: Eagles are currently laying five, and the over under at
Speaker 1: forty four has not moved all that much. Look, the
Speaker 1: Eagles really nice rebound win here against the Bills. They
Speaker 1: continue to get a little bit healthier overall, both in
Speaker 1: the secondary and Deshaun Jackson possibly coming back. I haven't
Speaker 1: seen anything on Miles Sanders other than everything was optimistic.
Speaker 2: After he litistic, I heard Peterson say day to day okay,
Speaker 2: which obviously is a big He seems to be their
Speaker 2: best besides Jackson, of course, their big home run threat.
Speaker 1: Now yeah, now I think Sprolls may return here. Not
Speaker 1: that he's the same caliber, but at least gives it
Speaker 1: that sort of, you know, explosive threat, at least in
Speaker 1: the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bears continued just to be
Speaker 1: completely lost. Mitchell Trubisky probably isn't all that far away
Speaker 1: from getting benched at this poor The run defense is
Speaker 1: not the same without a Keem Hicks. They did go
Speaker 1: heavy on the run offensively, which was kind of nice
Speaker 1: to see. Dave Montgomery had a big game. Perhaps they'll
Speaker 1: try to do that but you can't really do that
Speaker 1: against the Eagles. That's their strength right the line. It's
Speaker 1: hard to run on them. So how do you feel here?
Speaker 1: Eagles laying five over under at forty four in Philadelphia?
Speaker 2: I was actually seeing threes earlier today, so that jumped
Speaker 2: to me. Just all it says is nobody has any
Speaker 2: faith in Mitch anymore. And he's he is now Mitch again.
Speaker 2: He's reverted from Mitchell back to Mitch, like you said, like,
Speaker 2: I don't know when they closed the door on him,
Speaker 2: but it's that door is closing really fast. It's it's
Speaker 2: been bad. Like I said that that bear's been in
Speaker 2: our office is having is having panic. Also the kicking game,
Speaker 2: obviously they should have won the game shut but they
Speaker 2: shouldn't be in that position against the Chargers team like
Speaker 2: that anyway, at home, they should not.
Speaker 1: It seems this one to me, I can't see how
Speaker 1: you take the Bears here at minus five, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you have to run out and take
Speaker 1: the Eagles and mine. You know why if you saw
Speaker 1: it at three, why it's now at minus five because
Speaker 1: everybody should have hit that, you know, with the Eagles
Speaker 1: at home, it's not even like the Bears get the
Speaker 1: home field advantage. The one thing I would think about
Speaker 1: here might be again the under, and I generally lean
Speaker 1: towards the unders anyway. It's at forty four. That's not
Speaker 1: a huge number or anything, but you know, the Eagles
Speaker 1: kind of are notorious for starting really, really really slow
Speaker 1: during games. They take a while to get out there.
Speaker 1: The Bears just no matter what they do, they're not
Speaker 1: going to be dynamic offensively, and I think they probably said,
Speaker 1: you know, even though we lost the game, we were
Speaker 1: able to move the ball effectively on the ground. I
Speaker 1: think you'd see them try to run it as best
Speaker 1: as I can, which is going to be tough against
Speaker 1: the Eagles. But you know, again I don't see either team.
Speaker 1: I know the Eagles put up a ton of points
Speaker 1: this weekend against the Bills, but I still kind of
Speaker 1: lean to one of these games where the Eagles win
Speaker 1: and probably would cover at minus five. I don't feel
Speaker 1: super strongly about it, but I think it's probably more
Speaker 1: like an under. I don't know if you had any
Speaker 1: feeling on that part.
Speaker 2: I like, I like the idea that the Bears can't
Speaker 2: do what they do best against this Eagles defense and
Speaker 2: that just is gonna lead to more low scoring and
Speaker 2: I have no faith in Mitchell Trubisky right now.
Speaker 1: I think that's really what sums it up.
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, And I think that's what I think. That's
Speaker 2: what that early line move indicates as well. And I
Speaker 2: just it's it's hard. It's hard to see them scoring
Speaker 2: right now. Nobody has any confidence in the kicking game
Speaker 2: and the offense, and like you said, a team Hicks
Speaker 2: is out and that hurts. But the biggest problem I
Speaker 2: think with the defense is I think they rate sixteenth
Speaker 2: or something like that, like nothing you'd expect on in
Speaker 2: a DVOA against the rush, and that's just because they
Speaker 2: can't sustain drives. They just they can't. They can't stay
Speaker 2: on the field. And by the second half, that team
Speaker 2: is gassed and they're just getting pushed around in a
Speaker 2: way you never thought would be possible against it with
Speaker 2: some of the players that are on that So.
Speaker 1: You know, what probably is the play here, which you
Speaker 1: can't see, It would probably be like the first half
Speaker 1: under right, like it would be like you know, by
Speaker 1: the second half, the defense is gashed and there's going
Speaker 1: to be some scoring. The Eagles usually start slow so
Speaker 1: if anything, maybe the first half.
Speaker 2: Under These two teams combined to score just over a
Speaker 2: touchdown in the first quarter per game, so even maybe
Speaker 2: even the first quarter under right would be a nice
Speaker 2: one as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it, but this one's going to be
Speaker 1: interesting to see where it goes. I think the fact
Speaker 1: that it's moved already to minds five, I can't see
Speaker 1: it getting much higher than that. I mean, the Eagles
Speaker 1: have not played particularly well, but I don't really expect
Speaker 1: it to go down much more than maybe have a point,
Speaker 1: depending on how the money comes in.
Speaker 2: If you like the Eagles once again, i'd take them now.
Speaker 2: It could get to six. So if you want to
Speaker 2: get them, get them at five, at five five and
Speaker 2: a half before it gets to that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the next game is a little difficult to analyze
Speaker 1: because most most players don't have lines on that at all.
Speaker 1: I haven't actually seen an over under on it. All right,
Speaker 1: it's the Viking set the Chiefs, So we'll just do
Speaker 1: this one really quickly. We don't know Trick Mahomes is
Speaker 1: going to play. My guess is he's still not. You know,
Speaker 1: initial estimates were at least three weeks. I know he's
Speaker 1: like superhuman or whatever.
Speaker 2: I guess have a fun inside analysis for this. Actually,
Speaker 2: I did this exact thing to my knee this summer
Speaker 2: playing golf. I dislocated the kneecap, put the patella out
Speaker 2: of place. And I am no Patrick Homes, and I
Speaker 2: am not even anything close to an athlete, I would say,
Speaker 2: but I went, I went into the hospital, they set
Speaker 2: the knee, and I walked out of there that day
Speaker 2: and the doctor told me I could be playing golf
Speaker 2: within two to three weeks. And I am no athlete.
Speaker 1: So so you're what you're saying is that Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: is coming back this.
Speaker 2: Week and throwing five touchdowns as the MVP. Whatever.
Speaker 1: That's fine. Well, the only thing we have here, just
Speaker 1: to be clear, is we have a couple We have
Speaker 1: one book, I think only one book on at least
Speaker 1: on betting pros, and that's Fandal and right now it's
Speaker 1: Vikings minus three, which is the only other line I've
Speaker 1: seen from a couple of other books. That's all we
Speaker 1: have right now. So I assume that that is acting
Speaker 1: as if Mahomes is not going to play, because I
Speaker 1: what do you think out of curiosity the spread is
Speaker 1: going to be if Mahomes played, because to me at
Speaker 1: home and Arrowhead, I know the Vikings are flying high.
Speaker 1: They looked great. You know, they didn't they didn't dominate
Speaker 1: against the Redskins or anything like that, but they didn't
Speaker 1: have Adam Feelin, who should be back. Since they've opened
Speaker 1: up the passing game a little more, everything looks a
Speaker 1: little bit stronger. The Chiefs are what they are, you know.
Speaker 1: And again, even against the Packers and I like them,
Speaker 1: in that game, they were still beat up defensively. I
Speaker 1: thought I thought Chris Jones might make it back for
Speaker 1: that game, but he didn't. They were beat up on
Speaker 1: the offensive line. If Mahomes played, this strikes me as
Speaker 1: a like, you know, a Chief's minus, you know, a
Speaker 1: small favorite for the Chiefs. I don't know how you
Speaker 1: feel about it.
Speaker 2: I think it would almost swing a full touchdown.
Speaker 1: To be honest, really through all those key numbers, Okay, I.
Speaker 2: Think it would be somewhere around Chiefs minus three, if
Speaker 2: up to four, depending on how it was. That sort
Speaker 2: of thing. Okay, that's how That's how good I think
Speaker 2: he is, and that's how valuable I think he is
Speaker 2: to the spread. Right now.
Speaker 1: I think that that is fair well, it doesn't really
Speaker 1: make much sense to talk about too much since we
Speaker 1: have literally one book on one will be over under or.
Speaker 2: One quick thing. Sure, the Vikings have what they need
Speaker 2: to win there. They run the ball really well. The
Speaker 2: Chiefs really struggle stopping the run. Like look at Alex
Speaker 2: Aaron Jones last night. He had a field day against them.
Speaker 2: So if that is the number, they have the ability
Speaker 2: to cover it.
Speaker 1: And even with Mahomes playing by the way, I mean,
Speaker 1: that is the book now out on how to beat
Speaker 1: them is to try to keep the ball away from
Speaker 1: him as much as he possibly can exactly, And as
Speaker 1: you said, the Vikings are sort of built to do that,
Speaker 1: so you know, wait and see. But for now we're
Speaker 1: going to kind of move on from that one because
Speaker 1: I don't think we can really give too much actionable
Speaker 1: advice without the lines. Let's move on here to the Redskins.
Speaker 1: At the Bills Bills right now or minus ten. It
Speaker 1: was minus eleven, so I'm not sure if some money
Speaker 1: came in there on the Redskins. The over under is
Speaker 1: at thirty seven, still really low, up from the thirty
Speaker 1: six and a half. The Bills showed a few cracks
Speaker 1: here against the Eagles and what was admittedly an extremely
Speaker 1: windy day in Buffalo, so you don't want to take
Speaker 1: too much from it, and the.
Speaker 2: Redskins plus an already terribly inaccurate quarterback.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, one of the reasons I got
Speaker 1: him was because they thought that he could, you know,
Speaker 1: throw through the wind, which he might be able to
Speaker 1: except for the fact that he's not accurate to begin with,
Speaker 1: So what does it matter. I think it's more like, well,
Speaker 1: you know, he could be an accurate, but who cares
Speaker 1: because everybody's going to be an accurate. I guess Redskins
Speaker 1: they look quasi competent with case Keenum under center, but
Speaker 1: he is dealing with a concussion. He is still in
Speaker 1: the protocol as of right now, so we don't really know.
Speaker 1: This is obviously a completely different story if Dwayne Haskins plays.
Speaker 1: I imagine you're going to see the spread jump significantly
Speaker 1: if it sounds like he's going to be in. But
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here? Let's I assume Keenum plays,
Speaker 1: unless you want to talk about what it would be
Speaker 1: like with Haskins at Bill's minus ten over under at
Speaker 1: thirty seven.
Speaker 2: I just like, I don't understand why you could ever
Speaker 2: put faith in the Bills covering a big number. It's
Speaker 2: the number just jumped off the page. It was the
Speaker 2: number one number I saw on the board was Bill's
Speaker 2: minus ten. I know Washington's bad. We can talk about
Speaker 2: how how bad they are tilb we're blue in the face,
Speaker 2: but the defense showed something against Minnesota last week that
Speaker 2: was you can take something away from that. Hopefully Keenum plays,
Speaker 2: if Haskins plays, you know.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can't bet it yet, right though?
Speaker 2: Could no?
Speaker 1: I mean, this is seriously up in the air right
Speaker 1: now with I thought, you give them the Thursday game.
Speaker 2: Five times in the second half last week five times
Speaker 2: him doesn't trust him?
Speaker 1: If you saw him throw you know why. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, he just overthrowing a wide open Terry mclauriny.
Speaker 1: He's just not ready.
Speaker 2: He's ready. But that said, Buffaloes defense gets a lot
Speaker 2: of praise, but they're not really good against the run,
Speaker 2: and Callahan loves to run the ball, So maybe there's
Speaker 2: something there. I just if this number is at at
Speaker 2: ten or any double digit number, I'm I'm staying away
Speaker 2: from the Bills. You just you can't bet them, no
Speaker 2: matter who's that quarterback. The Bills defense is a little
Speaker 2: overrated when it comes to the rush. They have some
Speaker 2: troubles there. They couldn't cover at home against Cincy, they
Speaker 2: couldn't cover at home against Miami. I just don't know why.
Speaker 2: As long as you're getting double Jed's, I would I
Speaker 2: would be taking Washington. They're gonna be one of my
Speaker 2: favorite teaser Washington's gonna be one of my favorite teaser
Speaker 2: teams this week. I'm gonna bump them up to like
Speaker 2: sixteen points and put them on a bunch of teasers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let me ask something. Is that different if Haskins
Speaker 1: winds up being under center? Are you sed toll Like? No,
Speaker 1: it's just too many points. I don't care.
Speaker 2: It's too many points with the Bills, okay, like Haskins.
Speaker 2: Is Haskins any better than than I don't know Josh
Speaker 2: Rosen at this point.
Speaker 1: No, no, he's not. But I don't think that makes
Speaker 1: the difference. I'll honestly, if Keenum plays at the ten number,
Speaker 1: I like the Redskins. If he doesn't, I'm not. There's
Speaker 1: just no way, under any circumstances I'm backing a Dwayne
Speaker 1: Haskins led Redskins team although I completely get your point.
Speaker 1: It's not like the Bills are gonna put up a
Speaker 1: ton of points and the Redskins again, they have a
Speaker 1: decent defense going on and Adrian Peterson look great actually
Speaker 1: against the Vikings, so they'll certainly try to control the
Speaker 1: ball that way. But I like what you're thinking. Before
Speaker 1: we move on, I do want to tell everyone about
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Speaker 1: hundred gambler. All right, Andrew, Let's move on to our
Speaker 1: next game, the Colts at the Steelers. Now, again we
Speaker 1: are recording this just at the start of the Steelers
Speaker 1: versus the Dolphins game, so something could happen in that
Speaker 1: game that may change thing. Right now, it's Colts minus one.
Speaker 1: It was a pick them and the over under is
Speaker 1: at forty three and half. The Colts squeak out the
Speaker 1: game against the Broncos on a long field goal, but
Speaker 1: obviously their offense did not look great. Overall, their defense
Speaker 1: remains strong, and you know the Steelers. Yeah, the Steelers
Speaker 1: defense has been strong as well. Again, I'm so hesitant
Speaker 1: to say anything, you know, less they get destroyed today
Speaker 1: by the Dolphins or something, but you know, their offense
Speaker 1: remains in flux. I mean, the Colts had a weird game.
Speaker 2: They had a ton of weird game.
Speaker 1: They had a ton of penalties. They're never penalized at all.
Speaker 1: So for me, look, I don't know the Steelers again,
Speaker 1: having not seen tonight, I get you know, Mike Tomlin
Speaker 1: is a good coach. I like them. They have a
Speaker 1: strong defense, but they seem so gimmicky, you know, with
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph back there the Colts, it was essentially a pick.
Speaker 1: A minus one doesn't mean anything. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: lean towards the Cults on this one. I don't know
Speaker 1: about you.
Speaker 2: It's another one that jumped out on the board to me.
Speaker 2: The Colts are just the better team. I have the
Speaker 2: game on the background, and the Dolphins just went up
Speaker 2: fourteen to nothing on the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Oh my god. See you know, I just want you
Speaker 1: guys to know how dedicated a host I am. I
Speaker 1: turn it off, okay, and I was planning to watch
Speaker 1: it on DVR, but obviously Andrew has just ruined the
Speaker 1: entire experience for me.
Speaker 2: I apologize. I just we were just saying how they're
Speaker 2: down fourteen to nothing to the Dolphins right now, So well,
Speaker 2: I won't give you any more spoilers.
Speaker 1: So jump on and grab that minus one right now,
Speaker 1: because I may move to quite a bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Colts. Like I just said, the Colts are
Speaker 2: the better team. I think that was like a peak
Speaker 2: Broncos defensive game too, Like you know that the Broncos
Speaker 2: could play defense, they just really hadn't to this point.
Speaker 2: But yeah, they just couldn't The Colts couldn't seem to
Speaker 2: get anything on track in that first half. Like you said,
Speaker 2: lots of penalties. Yeah, that said Frank Wright might be
Speaker 2: the coach of the year with the whole Brissette luck
Speaker 2: thing defense getting healthy, they had their both their safeties
Speaker 2: are back and Darius Leonard is back, and that's a
Speaker 2: big key. And I just think that they'll be able
Speaker 2: to I think they should win the game. So yeah,
Speaker 2: if jump on.
Speaker 1: The Colts, yeah, I mean, I'll take this at anything
Speaker 1: under afield goal and I won't be worried about it whatsoever.
Speaker 1: I think that they are going to win. And again,
Speaker 1: the line is probably gonna move if the game unfolds
Speaker 1: in the way it apparently is unfolding as we speak.
Speaker 1: Let's move on here to the Jets at the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Obviously they're gonna skip it. Never I love talking Abo
Speaker 1: the Jets is my favorite thing in the world. Look,
Speaker 1: the Jets are now laying five and the over unders
Speaker 1: at forty one and a half. But who knows that
Speaker 1: the Dolphins destroying the Steelers, who knows how things will go?
Speaker 1: And now look, there is all sorts of bad things
Speaker 1: happening with the Jets. Leonard Williams was traded today to
Speaker 1: the Giants.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's all right, tell me why.
Speaker 1: I mean, because they're just gonna trade everyone is really
Speaker 1: what I was thinking. I mean, look, I mean, we
Speaker 1: get offline, we'll talk about how I feel about the trade.
Speaker 1: But CJ. Moseley out for much, if not all, of
Speaker 1: the remainder of the season. Sam Darnold dealing with a
Speaker 1: sprain left them, Robbie Anderson is strongly on the trade block.
Speaker 1: On the other side of the ball, it's the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: So that's really all you've got there. And again they've
Speaker 1: traded away Kenyon Drake, so I assume Mark Walton is
Speaker 1: the guy who was the starter tonight. I have no
Speaker 1: idea what has happened yet in this game, but I'm.
Speaker 2: Sure it's not kill to score the touchdowns.
Speaker 1: And none of it matters anyway. So how do you
Speaker 1: feel without the benefit of the game tonight? At the
Speaker 1: Jets laying five and the over under forty one and
Speaker 1: a half. I will will say that I have taken
Speaker 1: in my own sort of that the last two weeks,
Speaker 1: I've taken the Jets and it has been a disaster obviously,
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm reticent to opinion on this one.
Speaker 2: You had you had Jason, my Feelers leader, Jason on
Speaker 2: two weeks just before they played the Cowboys, and they looked,
Speaker 2: they looked impressive, and they they win the game and and.
Speaker 1: That was the end of Yet are we going to
Speaker 1: get back on track here? What do you think?
Speaker 2: But I can't. That's the thing. Like, they're they're impossible
Speaker 2: to evaluate. That's that was the quick point there. Uh,
Speaker 2: They're impossible to evaluate with those performances. There's no way
Speaker 2: I could feel confident laying any points on them. I
Speaker 2: do like the over though this you're an under guy,
Speaker 2: but I like the over here because I feel like
Speaker 2: both teams probably feel like defense is optional. That's a
Speaker 2: low number. It also might be that's also maybe one
Speaker 2: of my teaser plays this week. Knock that down to
Speaker 2: about thirty five or so and throw that into a
Speaker 2: bunch of teasers. I think I think there could be
Speaker 2: some points here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it.
Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick's gonna get Yes, Fitzpatrick's gonna throw the ball a lot.
Speaker 1: Of one of Fitzpatrick's seventeen revenge games, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: he's able to Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so yeah, I would stay away from the line,
Speaker 2: but the total is something I'll be looking at.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you are echoing my thoughts exactly. I cannot as
Speaker 1: much as if I'm forced to take one again, not
Speaker 1: having seen the Dolphins, I would take the Jets just
Speaker 1: because I do think they're a little more competent than
Speaker 1: they have shown. Yes, with all the potential trades, you
Speaker 1: can't really get a read on it, but the over under, yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree. I mean the Jets can score. I mean
Speaker 1: their offensive line is terrible. They may be with our
Speaker 1: Robbie Anderson, but they can put up points.
Speaker 2: Been unfair to Darnold as well. This this whole ghost
Speaker 2: thing is a little overblown. It's literally something so many
Speaker 2: people say every week. He was just recorded.
Speaker 1: Well he knew he was being recorded, So maybe not
Speaker 1: say that next time. But kudos to the Jaguars for
Speaker 1: trolling him in an expert.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, it was epicla fantastic.
Speaker 1: If you don't know about that, there's a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff that they did. All of it is brilliant. So
Speaker 1: we can go. But I think we're both on the
Speaker 1: same page here. Just run away from the spread. Whatever
Speaker 1: it is when it ends. But if the over under
Speaker 1: sticks it around forty one forty one and a half,
Speaker 1: jump all over it with the over Titans at the
Speaker 1: Panthers Panthers currently laying four. It was three and a
Speaker 1: half and the over unders at forty one. Look Ryan
Speaker 1: Tannehill making the Titans offense look somewhat competent, three touchdown
Speaker 1: passes against and admittedly weak books pass defense. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: Panthers completely embarrassed against the forty nine ers. As we
Speaker 1: discussed earlier, Kyle Allen has a rough day. He has
Speaker 1: already been named the starter for this game, so it's
Speaker 1: not gonna be Newton yet. So thoughts here on the
Speaker 1: Panthers at home laying four and the over under at
Speaker 1: forty one to the Titans.
Speaker 2: This is it's the Panthers are a really uncomfortable team
Speaker 2: right now. Like I can't I can't get a read
Speaker 2: on them whatsoever. But they should be upset, right You
Speaker 2: think they'd be upset after being embarrassed like that?
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Yes, absolutely.
Speaker 2: But this one's obviously gonna come down to whether or
Speaker 2: not Chris. The answer is usually yes. Christian McCaffrey is
Speaker 2: successfu Like that's almost they check that off like he
Speaker 2: is going to be good. But the Titans are really
Speaker 2: good against the rush. It's it's I don't, I don't.
Speaker 2: I really don't know what to feel about this game.
Speaker 2: I I can't believe I'm saying, but Ryan Daniel has looked,
Speaker 2: like you said, competent. He looked He's looked much better
Speaker 2: than Marcus Mariota, which is it's it's taken the Titans
Speaker 2: away from that one of the most uncomfortable teams to
Speaker 2: bet sort of thing, because you never know, oh, this
Speaker 2: is this the week they're gonna let you down, right,
Speaker 2: So that that said, I'll probably go and back them
Speaker 2: this week at plus four and a half or plus
Speaker 2: four or whatever is, and then they'll let me down again.
Speaker 1: Of course. Yeah, I have no I have no feel
Speaker 1: for this one. I didn't mean to carry off. I'm sorry. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I have no feel for this one whatsoever. I liked
Speaker 1: the Panthers a lot coming off the bye, you know,
Speaker 1: And I don't know whether or not it says that
Speaker 1: much about the forty nine ers. It probably does, or
Speaker 1: whether or not it says, you know, because the Panthers
Speaker 1: had really started to look very, very solid defensively. But again,
Speaker 1: the Titans, like you said, they're a team who I
Speaker 1: constantly avoid, but I feel less worried about them with
Speaker 1: Anally pushes the ball down the field a little bit more.
Speaker 1: He right, you know, he's more accurate than Mariotta, which
Speaker 1: again very low bar. But yeah, it's a game that
Speaker 1: I don't really love above a field goal. I kind
Speaker 1: of lean towards the Titans anywhere above a field goal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you put if you gun to my head on,
Speaker 2: I'd take the points with the underdog here.
Speaker 1: I think that's the right way to say it. But
Speaker 1: we're both saying gun to our head, which means neither
Speaker 1: one of us really loves it. But I agree with you,
Speaker 1: I would take the points if I had to pick
Speaker 1: a side. Bucks at Seahawks. Seahawks currently minus seven, that's
Speaker 1: jumped from minus six, and the look headline at the
Speaker 1: over under. I mean, I love these Seahawks games where
Speaker 1: you look at it and you're you're thinking, like your
Speaker 1: first reaction is it's probably gonna be like in a
Speaker 1: mid forties, like high forty, something like fifty three for
Speaker 1: the over under. This is not your grandfather, Seahawks. Jameis Winton.
Speaker 1: James Winston just does what he does against the Titans,
Speaker 1: plenty of turnovers. Bucks cannot run the ball, they cannot
Speaker 1: stop the pass. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense and home field advantage,
Speaker 1: it's just not what it once was. But they're still
Speaker 1: getting thing done, mainly because Russell Wilson is playing an
Speaker 1: MVP level. Chris Carson is running incredibly well. Again, this
Speaker 1: is a very tough matchup for running backs. You can
Speaker 1: throw all over the Bucks, but it's very difficult to run.
Speaker 1: So how do you feel here? Seahawks minus seven and
Speaker 1: the under age fifty three the Bucks.
Speaker 2: It's like one of the most shocking stats in the NFL.
Speaker 2: The Bucks ranked first in dv AWA against the Rush.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: I know they've got some very talented defenders, but like
Speaker 2: you just don't think of that when you think of
Speaker 2: the Bucks. I would say, and here's a fun staff
Speaker 2: forget the Seahawks have not covered at home this season
Speaker 2: own for ats at home. Oh and that includes that
Speaker 2: includes games against Cincy and all the Saints Teddy Teddy
Speaker 2: Bridgewater Saints. Sure, but they just there's something about these
Speaker 2: home games that they just haven't They lost, They lost
Speaker 2: out right to the to the Ravens against a team
Speaker 2: at that point. Going into that game, we were probably like, oh,
Speaker 2: the Ravens, they look good on offense now, but they
Speaker 2: can't play defense anymore.
Speaker 1: They're kind of like and then Thursday night game against
Speaker 1: the Rams right where they won by one but the
Speaker 1: spread was one and a half. Yeah, you're right.
Speaker 2: And then and then last week they the Falcons kind
Speaker 2: of laid down for them for three quarters of the
Speaker 2: game and then the Seahawks just didn't care and they
Speaker 2: didn't cover last week, which was I had that. I
Speaker 2: had that game, so I was one of those bitter
Speaker 2: minus seven and a half betters, which is yeah.
Speaker 1: I had it at six and a half, thankfully, so
Speaker 1: I was yeah, so I was able to get the hook.
Speaker 1: But yeah, look, I agree with you. The Bucks for me,
Speaker 1: are a really tough team to get a sense of,
Speaker 1: right because there are It was like the Titans. I
Speaker 1: always said the Bucks versus the Titans was like my
Speaker 1: nightmare because it was two teams that I felt like
Speaker 1: I had no sense of what they were going to
Speaker 1: do whatsoever. And it's kind of the same way. I mean,
Speaker 1: the Bucks should have won that game yesterday against the Titans.
Speaker 1: Without the you know, the blown call and the field
Speaker 1: goal or anything like that. And the Seahawks, you know,
Speaker 1: they're just not that good. Russell Wilson is really good,
Speaker 1: but he is. He's really good. He could be the
Speaker 1: MVP this year. But I don't think the team as
Speaker 1: that could, which I think is why the home field
Speaker 1: advantage really isn't making that much of a difference. I
Speaker 1: just think if I'm forced to pay again, this is
Speaker 1: one where I don't have a side here. You know,
Speaker 1: I don't feel great about it either way. If I'm
Speaker 1: forced to pick Man anything less than a touchdown, I
Speaker 1: think I'll take the Seahawks. Anything more than the touchdown,
Speaker 1: I think I take the Bucks. Right now, it's at seven,
Speaker 1: so I you know, I'm I'm.
Speaker 2: So that's a stay away, to stay away for.
Speaker 1: Me and the over under. I don't know, man, I
Speaker 1: think i'd probably lean on. That's a high number. I
Speaker 1: get it, I get it, I get it. But at
Speaker 1: fifty three, man, I don't know. Again, Russell Wilson, you know,
Speaker 1: it's like twenty past attempts a game. I mean, I
Speaker 1: don't know how many touchdowns he could actually throw given
Speaker 1: that to get it to that number. So for me,
Speaker 1: I lean under at seven. It's a stay away from me.
Speaker 1: But if it moves higher, I probably think the values
Speaker 1: at the Bucks. If the moves lower, I think the
Speaker 1: values at the Seahawks.
Speaker 2: It's another teaser. It's another teaser game for me. I
Speaker 2: would tease. I would tease the total down here and
Speaker 2: then take the over. Yeah, obviously the Seahawks can't cover
Speaker 2: right now. I would say they're having a lot of
Speaker 2: trouble covering people, and Mike Evans is doing his thing again,
Speaker 2: and they just they look good on as long as
Speaker 2: they're they look good until they're not looking good. That's
Speaker 2: what's the infurity and thing about the Bucks. Yeah, and yeah,
Speaker 2: they win that game in LA and then they promptly
Speaker 2: goin three straight up in ats in our next three games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why I don't want any part of them here.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to an interesting line here. Lions at
Speaker 1: the Raiders. Raiders now are laying three. It was at
Speaker 1: minus one and the over under a pretty high fifty one.
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised here. I mean, the Lions to
Speaker 1: me have have repeatedly gotten a little less respect than
Speaker 1: I think they deserve, though they did not cover yesterday
Speaker 1: against the Giants, despite winning the game. Without carry on Johnson,
Speaker 1: they've absolutely no running game. Even with him, they barely
Speaker 1: had a running game, but without him they certainly have none.
Speaker 1: They employed they' running back by committee approach. That's not
Speaker 1: a big deal against the Raiders, who can't stop the
Speaker 1: pass anyway, So Matthew Stafford, who's having a great season,
Speaker 1: should be able to do some damage here. The Raiders' offense,
Speaker 1: though they look just fine. They nearly pull it out
Speaker 1: against the Texans. Tyrell Williams returns and scores a touchdown
Speaker 1: because that's what he does every single game he plays.
Speaker 1: Darren Waller's playing great, Josh Jacobs is playing well. They
Speaker 1: can put up points, hence the high over under. But
Speaker 1: how do you feel here with the Raiders laying a
Speaker 1: field goal at home in the over under at fifty one?
Speaker 2: I think it's it's the right way to feel. You
Speaker 2: feel surprised. The Raiders have been surprising on offense, and
Speaker 2: I think this is where the numbers should be around
Speaker 2: a field goal, because unfortunately, I think the Lions are
Speaker 2: giving up a little bit with the trade. They've made
Speaker 2: some confusing trades as well, not as confusing as some teams.
Speaker 2: But they traded away their captain last week and on
Speaker 2: defense and I just didn't get it. And yeah, with
Speaker 2: Johnson now hurt, it's it's they become very one dimensional.
Speaker 2: I know the Raiders don't do much on defense, but
Speaker 2: anytime you're near that one dimensional, you're gonna have issues.
Speaker 2: And I think that's I think that's probably the where
Speaker 2: the line is supposed to be. I I don't see
Speaker 2: it going much higher than this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's probably start getting the consensus, to be clear,
Speaker 1: is at three. There's still a couple of books offering
Speaker 1: it at two, so it's moving around a little bit
Speaker 1: near and.
Speaker 2: I could see it. I could see it ending around
Speaker 2: two and a half or two in that and that
Speaker 2: kind of area there. Yeah, and I just it's a
Speaker 2: hard it's another hard one to evaluate this. There's I
Speaker 2: think i'd if I'd have to take the Raiders at home,
Speaker 2: just because I like the way. I like the way
Speaker 2: the offenses look. They they've put up some some tough fights.
Speaker 2: They it was they looked an impressive on offense against
Speaker 2: against the Texans last week. They gave them a run
Speaker 2: for their money. Obviously, they got blown out by Green Bay,
Speaker 2: but beat Chicago in London, like we mentioned before, beat
Speaker 2: Indianapolis Indianapolis like it's and they've covered three of their
Speaker 2: last four, so it's it's where the line should be.
Speaker 1: I think, yeah. I think for me, how I feel
Speaker 1: about this game might depend on how healthy the Lions
Speaker 1: are on defense, because you know when they're down Darius
Speaker 1: Slay like they were against the Giants, and I think
Speaker 1: Snax Harrison got injured again in that game. He's a
Speaker 1: big stopper of the run, so I think it might
Speaker 1: depend on that. If both guys are healthy, I think
Speaker 1: I'd probably favor the lines if you're going to get
Speaker 1: something like a field goal, But if not, it's probably
Speaker 1: a game that I just don't feel great about either
Speaker 1: way because I just don't trust either one of these teams,
Speaker 1: which is I feel like both teams could easily have
Speaker 1: much better records than they do, the Raiders at three
Speaker 1: and four of the Lions at three three and one,
Speaker 1: So it's not a game that I'm uber excited about.
Speaker 1: But if the Lions get healthy on defense, I think
Speaker 1: i'd probably lean towards them. If you're going to get
Speaker 1: a field goal before we finish up with our last
Speaker 1: few games, I want to remind everyone about our October giveaway,
Speaker 1: which is a signed Odell Beckham Junior Cleveland Brown's helmet.
Speaker 1: You can go to bettingpros dot com slash contest for
Speaker 1: more details, but to enter, just leave a review for
Speaker 1: the show on Apple Podcasts or Stitcher and send a
Speaker 1: screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros dot com,
Speaker 1: and an entry into this contest automatically gets you entered
Speaker 1: to all future contests. So take the two seconds support
Speaker 1: the show and maybe you'll win a free helmet. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on here to the Browns at the Broncos.
Speaker 1: I mentioned it at the top. The opening line was
Speaker 1: Broncos laying one and a half. It is now the
Speaker 1: Browns laying three and the over under his drop from
Speaker 1: forty three to forty and a half. And the real
Speaker 1: reason for it is the absence of Joe Flacco, who's
Speaker 1: gonna miss this game and may go on the IR
Speaker 1: with a purported case of a herniated disk in his neck,
Speaker 1: but a real case of stop insulting the coaching staff.
Speaker 1: That's what it was. Come on, that's what it is.
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen is going to get the start for the Broncos,
Speaker 1: And I've got to be honest, this has to be
Speaker 1: the first time we've had three guys with the last
Speaker 1: name Alan starting at quarterback in the NFL. Right job,
Speaker 1: Kyle and Brandon I don't know who he is, but anyway,
Speaker 1: we don't know much about what we're going to see
Speaker 1: from the defensive side of the ball. You mentioned how
Speaker 1: they put up a big effort against the Colts. We
Speaker 1: don't know if Chris Harris Junior is still going to
Speaker 1: be there at you know, when the game comes around. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Browns are in complete disarray. A few things are
Speaker 1: working for them. Jarvis Landry got injured at the end
Speaker 1: of the game. I don't know how serious it is.
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield looks like me after I try to do
Speaker 1: a push on, you know, like he just he just
Speaker 1: looks like he's beaten down at this point. It's just
Speaker 1: not working for him. So with the understanding that it's
Speaker 1: probably a little difficult to analyze this because I don't know,
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I don't know all that much about
Speaker 1: Brandon Allen myself. So how do you feel about that?
Speaker 1: The Browns in Denver? So it's a tough place to play,
Speaker 1: of course, laying three with an over under forty and
Speaker 1: a half or is this literally a I have no
Speaker 1: idea what to do with this with Brandon Allen, and
Speaker 1: I need to research it and then.
Speaker 2: We'll I would need I would need to do more
Speaker 2: research on Brandon Allen. First, I did this is funny
Speaker 2: a few weeks ago that game they well, I guess
Speaker 2: last week when they played the Chiefs, I didn't even
Speaker 2: realize that Drew Locke had been hurt. Yeah, I was like,
Speaker 2: why why is Joe Flacco was still in this football game?
Speaker 2: Like it was? It was terrible. I don't know. Wow,
Speaker 2: you can't evaluate Uh, Sutton is looks good on offense.
Speaker 2: Free scored a couple of touchdowns the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 2: so they're they're starting to it. I don't know if
Speaker 2: Allen could be much worse than Joe Flacco.
Speaker 1: So maybe it's that that's really what it comes down to, right,
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco has been the most disinterested human being ever
Speaker 1: to play in the NFL. Over the last three weeks.
Speaker 1: He's just been like, I don't know, guys, I guess
Speaker 1: I'll play How much time do we have Okay, that's fine.
Speaker 1: I mean, legitimately, I don't know what the over you know,
Speaker 1: the the highest number of rushing attempts that a team
Speaker 1: has ever done in a single game, But the Broncos
Speaker 1: probably might as well just go for breaking the record here.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can attack the Browns on the ground,
Speaker 1: just feed Lindsay Royce Freeman, see what you can do.
Speaker 1: But in the end, I don't think there's any way
Speaker 1: to properly analyze this game at this point.
Speaker 2: The Browns are a mess, right like Freddy Kitchens is
Speaker 2: lucky to have a job. At this point, I would say.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I guess the only thing you could
Speaker 1: say about this without you know, again, it's it's very
Speaker 1: difficult for us to really, you know, breathe it in
Speaker 1: because we don't know too much about what it's gonna
Speaker 1: look like. But in the end, you know, the Browns,
Speaker 1: as much as their season is probably over, this is
Speaker 1: really it. Okay, if they don't win this game, like
Speaker 1: the season is legitimately over. There two and five, you
Speaker 1: still have a pulse at this point. I mean, the
Speaker 1: Broncos are two and six, but they're you know, they've
Speaker 1: traded Sanders already, They're probably going to make other other moves.
Speaker 1: This is it. You've got the Browns against a just
Speaker 1: you know, a backup quarterback that nobody really knows whatsoever.
Speaker 1: You've got the team trading guys. This is their stand.
Speaker 1: And so if you want to buy into that narrative,
Speaker 1: I could see back in the Browns.
Speaker 2: But overall, just know, if you know Freddy Kitchens, I'm
Speaker 2: just I know he fumbled twice. One of them wasn't
Speaker 2: really as full as you get the ball kicked. But
Speaker 2: you just give Nick Chubb the ball as much as
Speaker 2: possible hopefully you win the football game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he looked great yesterday. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: he fumbled twice early, they still kept giving them the ball.
Speaker 1: They still will and so I think that, but for now,
Speaker 1: I don't know, stay away if it is our advice.
Speaker 1: Packers at the Chargers. Packers laying three and the over
Speaker 1: under at forty six, up a half point from forty
Speaker 1: five and a half at the look aad line. The
Speaker 1: Packers continue to roll even without Devonte Adams. He may
Speaker 1: make it back for this one. I'm not sure if
Speaker 1: he's going to need another week here. Uh, the defense
Speaker 1: showing few holes now the pass defense, as evident last
Speaker 1: night against the Chiefs, but Aaron Jones and Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: both playing exceptionally well. And you cannot say the same
Speaker 1: thing about the Chargers. Though they do eke out that
Speaker 1: win against the Bears, it's really just business as usual
Speaker 1: for them. It's they're inconsistent, both offensively and defensively. They
Speaker 1: have a ton of injuries that they can't really overcome.
Speaker 1: They're going home here, but that is not an actual
Speaker 1: home field advantage. It's almost a disadvantage because.
Speaker 2: Charge that Steelers game like it'll be exactly like that
Speaker 2: Steelers game was a few weeks ago, like the Packers
Speaker 2: fans will travel, that will be that will be at
Speaker 2: least fifty Packers fans there this weekend.
Speaker 1: What makes me nervous about this line is, you know,
Speaker 1: the public loves the Packers, right, so you figure that
Speaker 1: you're gonna get money on this with the Packers. So
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised it's not higher given the freed
Speaker 1: you know, right.
Speaker 2: It's it's it's a little suspicious. The line is a
Speaker 2: little suspicious because I look at the Chargers and I
Speaker 2: see a team who who who doesn't want to give
Speaker 2: their best player of the football, Austin Eckler, just that
Speaker 2: guy the football all the time, and like I know,
Speaker 2: they still use him in the passing game a lot.
Speaker 2: But Melvin Gordon is not in shape right now. He
Speaker 2: just he's not. He can't run the ball, well, he can't,
Speaker 2: and they're just dedicated to give him the ball. And
Speaker 2: I don't know why. I'm confused as to why they
Speaker 2: want to just keep going on this way. But it
Speaker 2: should be a Packers Packers easy win here. But that's
Speaker 2: so that's why it's suspicious, because it's so low.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think even if I looked at this
Speaker 1: and I said, okay, they're trying to get us, you know,
Speaker 1: they're trying to get people to take the Packers. You know,
Speaker 1: there's something that I'm missing. It's got to be the Chargers.
Speaker 1: There's just no way that I would feel comfortable taking
Speaker 1: the Chargers in a game that's you know, they could win.
Speaker 1: But it's not something where it would be something where
Speaker 1: even if I saw value in the charters, I probably
Speaker 1: couldn't pull the trigger. And again, it's possible Gordon gets
Speaker 1: dealt by the way. I mean, it's certainly it's certainly
Speaker 1: one of the possibilities. I mean, Gordon does not look good,
Speaker 1: but again, their offensive line is just completely beat up
Speaker 1: with it.
Speaker 2: Three starters are gone.
Speaker 1: It's it's why Eckler does his damage in the passing game.
Speaker 1: It's not like he's running it and tearing it up.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's just much more doing it out of
Speaker 1: the passing game. So again, it's a game that I
Speaker 1: think the line strikes both of us as, Wow, you
Speaker 1: got to hammer the Packers on this number. But you know,
Speaker 1: I need to do a little bit of a deeper
Speaker 1: dive into it, because on the surface it looks like, Wow,
Speaker 1: definite Packers. But when it's that way, especially with a
Speaker 1: public team like the Packers that you know is going
Speaker 1: to get a ton of money on them, it's a
Speaker 1: little suspicious. Still at this point, I'll be honest, at
Speaker 1: a field goal, I'll pound the Packers like I'll take
Speaker 1: it right out.
Speaker 2: Like the defense isn't as bad as some of the
Speaker 2: numbers indicate. Obviously, they have their issues against the rush,
Speaker 2: which I don't think will be a problem against the Chargers,
Speaker 2: which is which makes this line even more suspicious. I
Speaker 2: think you can give them a bit of a break
Speaker 2: against last night like you're still playing in arrowhead. You're
Speaker 2: still having to face like really talented skill position guys
Speaker 2: like Hill and Kelsey. Yeah, so I think there is
Speaker 2: some leeway to be given there. So yes, I'm on
Speaker 2: board with the hammering of the pack.
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on here to the Patriots at
Speaker 1: the Ravens. Money I'm sure is coming in on the
Speaker 1: raven here because the line has dropped from Patriots laying
Speaker 1: five to Patriots laying four. The over under has dropped
Speaker 1: from forty six to forty four and a half. The
Speaker 1: Patriots win on Sunday in the slop against the Browns,
Speaker 1: but the offense really has not looked dynamic for several weeks.
Speaker 1: The defense, though, continues to be incredibly, incredibly impressive. Then
Speaker 1: you get the Ravens. They're playing well off that big
Speaker 1: win against the Seahawks. Lamar Jackson continues to do well
Speaker 1: on the ground at least. They're coming off a buy
Speaker 1: where Harbaugh is really good at getting his team coached up.
Speaker 1: I hesitate, and again, this is two weeks in a
Speaker 1: row where I've taken the points against the Patriots and
Speaker 1: come out on the wrong end. For me, the value
Speaker 1: here and it's dropped already, so this might I get.
Speaker 1: You know, when I first looked at forty six, it
Speaker 1: was a little different than forty four and a half.
Speaker 1: Maybe not, but I still kind of like the under here,
Speaker 1: just because both these teams control the ball forever. I mean,
Speaker 1: they both have a huge time of possession. So it
Speaker 1: strikes me as something where you know they're both going
Speaker 1: to try to be methodical in their drives and see
Speaker 1: what they can do to extend it, which leans towards
Speaker 1: the under. But I'm not sure how I feel. How
Speaker 1: do you do at Patriots lank for and now the
Speaker 1: over under at forty four and a half?
Speaker 2: This is another one of those If you like the Patriots,
Speaker 2: I don't see it. They're a public team. It's not
Speaker 2: gonna get The number is not gonna go down any further,
Speaker 2: so you might as well take the Patriots now if
Speaker 2: you want. It's gonna be really interesting to see what
Speaker 2: Belichick can come up against having to face Jackson like
Speaker 2: we haven't. Jackson hasn't had to face anything like this,
Speaker 2: like this Patriots defense yet, so it's gonna be fun
Speaker 2: to see the little x's and o's and seeing how
Speaker 2: they punch and counter punch each other. But I think
Speaker 2: you're right. I think what it's gonna come down to
Speaker 2: is the run game for both teams. The Patriots, haven't
Speaker 2: they in a sense, they obviously passed to set up
Speaker 2: the run, but they need to control the clock a
Speaker 2: little more in this game. And I think they'll do
Speaker 2: that by given guys like it'll be one of these
Speaker 2: weird games where they get Brand of the Bold in
Speaker 2: some touches for some reason, and James White will get
Speaker 2: a few extra carries. And besides the the Michelle just
Speaker 2: I don't know, he had an okay game last night
Speaker 2: or yesterday, and they still want to get him going.
Speaker 2: And the Ravens just aren't very good on defense right now.
Speaker 1: So well, they've gotten a little bit better against the
Speaker 1: runs since Brandon Williams came back, and again, you know,
Speaker 1: without James Devlin, I think that's been a huge issue
Speaker 1: for the Patriots running game. But and you know, they
Speaker 1: don't really have the depth of receiver right now. Edelman's
Speaker 1: still there. I know they traded for some new Philip Dorsett,
Speaker 1: but it's nobody that really scares you. We'll see. I
Speaker 1: hear they're still looking for a receiver so we'll see
Speaker 1: what they do, right, if they can add anything. But
Speaker 1: in the end, offensively, they don't really scare you all
Speaker 1: that much at this point, I don't think because just
Speaker 1: their weapons, so I could see them, you know, just
Speaker 1: being methodical. Their defense is legitimate. It would really help
Speaker 1: the Ravens. If Hollywood Brown comes back for this one
Speaker 1: he's missed several weeks, he at least stretches the field
Speaker 1: a little bit. But you know, Belichick is going to
Speaker 1: come up with something. So with the line, yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean it's not going to get down to a field
Speaker 1: goal or anything like that because the Patriots are a
Speaker 1: public team. So I think it'll bounce between four and five. So,
Speaker 1: like you said, if you like them, you can go
Speaker 1: ahead and take them here is fine. And again the
Speaker 1: over under at forty four and a half, I still
Speaker 1: like the under right there. I liked it more at
Speaker 1: forty six. But for now, I see this as kind
Speaker 1: of a close game that's going to be relatively low
Speaker 1: scoring as both teams, you know, do what they do best,
Speaker 1: which is still a.
Speaker 2: Lot of the different players. But this is still a
Speaker 2: big rivalry game and sure and it should be a
Speaker 2: low scoring one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with that. Let's move on to our
Speaker 1: final game of the week, the Cowboys at the Giants.
Speaker 1: Cowboys now are laying seven. It was at seven and
Speaker 1: a half, so it's moved just a bit, and the
Speaker 1: over under at forty eight. Daniel Jones set's career highs
Speaker 1: pretty much across the board against the Lions. It's not
Speaker 1: enough for them to win. They do had Leonard Williams,
Speaker 1: as we talked about, and Sterling Shepard might be able
Speaker 1: to make it back from his concussion, although that's still
Speaker 1: kind of up in the air. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are
Speaker 1: off a bye and their impressive win against the Eagles.
Speaker 1: They've been a bit up and down this season. We
Speaker 1: talked about how in the world did they lose against
Speaker 1: the Jets if not a good sign for them, But
Speaker 1: how do you feel here? Division rivalry Monday Night Football,
Speaker 1: Cowboys at the Giants laying a touchdown and the over
Speaker 1: under at forty eight.
Speaker 2: These these division games are obviously always closer, and the
Speaker 2: Cowboys have have looked very good against bad teams and
Speaker 2: have looked very bad against good teams. It seems so
Speaker 2: the Giants to me are a bad team. I just
Speaker 2: it's a lot of points. It's a lot of points
Speaker 2: for a team that has struggled against well, it just
Speaker 2: struggled in general recently. And Daniel Jones, if I have to,
Speaker 2: I'd take the Cowboys, just because I think Daniel Jones
Speaker 2: is turning off the ball way too much right now.
Speaker 2: Everybody was very much in love with Danny Dimes when
Speaker 2: he came on the scene, but it's it's more like
Speaker 2: Danny turnovers like that kid. That kid turns over the
Speaker 2: ball a lot. He's a bit of a gunslinger and
Speaker 2: he's got putting them in some problems. So I don't
Speaker 2: I don't know how to how to feel about align
Speaker 2: that big with the Cowboys, but the guy on the
Speaker 2: other side is iffy, so I'd probably stay away.
Speaker 1: This is you throwing up your hands. That was the
Speaker 1: verbal equivalent of Andrew throwing his hands up in the air,
Speaker 1: being like, I don't know. There was just a lot
Speaker 1: of I don't know. I'd like this, but no, don't apologize.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right. I mean honestly that that really is
Speaker 1: what it is. And I try to encourage our guests
Speaker 1: when they're on the show. It's okay to say, man,
Speaker 1: I do not have a feel for that line. That
Speaker 1: is not what I want to know. Neither do I. Honestly,
Speaker 1: I really don't. I think I probably would lean towards
Speaker 1: the Cowboys if it was under a touchdown at this point,
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't feel great about it. Again, divisional games
Speaker 1: are always a little bit tricky, and the Giants, you know,
Speaker 1: they have the ability to keep a game close. It's
Speaker 1: not like the Cowboys have this dominant defense. Now that
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley is back healthy, now that Golden Tate is
Speaker 1: back in the fold, he's been playing really well. Evan
Speaker 1: Ingram finally had a really good game, you know. So
Speaker 1: it is a game where, especially if Shepherd can come back.
Speaker 1: I mean, even if the Cowboys are in control, you
Speaker 1: could see the Giants getting a backdoor cover here, you know.
Speaker 1: So it's certainly not a game that I feel really
Speaker 1: good about in a Division game. So for now, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna on it if it drops below seven, which I
Speaker 1: won't expect it to. If anything, I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: go up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I see a couple of eights on the boardland, Yeah.
Speaker 1: There are a couple of eights. And again, Cowboys are
Speaker 1: such a public team, so you know, but you know,
Speaker 1: in New York, it just it makes me a little hesitant.
Speaker 1: So this is again one that both of us are
Speaker 1: pretty much out of. Stay away. I'm kind of maybe
Speaker 1: willing to trust the Cowboys if it drops below seven.
Speaker 1: I don't think it will, and it wouldn't be a
Speaker 1: game that I would love. It's you know, it's not
Speaker 1: gonna be one of my best bets or anything on
Speaker 1: the Thursday Show because it's just it's not a game
Speaker 1: that I have a great feel for because again, the
Speaker 1: Giants are able to put up points, even though I
Speaker 1: don't really trust them as a good football team like
Speaker 1: they did yesterday against the Lions. They don't have a
Speaker 1: great defense, but they were able to in the end
Speaker 1: come storming back a little bit and put up points.
Speaker 1: So it's not a game I feel great about. Yeah,
Speaker 1: all right, agree, that is going to do it for
Speaker 1: today's show. Andrew, it was great having you back on.
Speaker 1: Remind everyone where they can find more of you in
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: You can find me at covers dot com, where we've
Speaker 2: got a ton of other great football betting content, and
Speaker 2: you can find me on Twitter at Covers Underscore Klee.
Speaker 2: I'll be tweeting college Football NFL, and maybe one or
Speaker 2: two more baseball picks depending on how much longer this
Speaker 2: world series goes. Probably not long, I don't.
Speaker 1: Think, probably not not with the shows are injury and
Speaker 1: again that's C A L E Y C. I got
Speaker 1: your back over there.
Speaker 2: That's right, all.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, thanks again for coming on, and thanks again
Speaker 1: to the sponsor of today's show, bet MGM. Remember download
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Speaker 1: an assigned Odell Beckham, Junior Brown Hummet. We'll be back
Speaker 1: later this week giving you some of our best bets
Speaker 1: for week nine. I'll talk to you then,