WEBVTT - NFL Week 9 Game Lines Reactions (Ep. 22) 0:00:08.119 --> 0:00:11.360 Hey there everyone. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast, 0:00:11.400 --> 0:00:14.480 brought to you by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:14.480 --> 0:00:16.639 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. 0:00:17.079 --> 0:00:19.520 It is time for our early look at next week's lines, 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:21.279 and with me today to break it all down is 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.880 Andrew Kyley, a senior publishing editor It Covers. You can 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:30.280 find him on Twitter at Covers Underscore. Kaylee. That is c. A. L. E. Y. Andrew, 0:00:30.320 --> 0:00:31.840 Thanks for coming back on the show. How you doing. 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:34.599 I'm doing very well. Thanks for having me back. I'm excited. 0:00:34.840 --> 0:00:37.240 Yeah, we had a great time talking earlier this year, 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.200 and I'm really happy to have you on for what 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.400 I think might be the most difficult Monday show of 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.880 the entire year. With the trade deadline just around the corner, 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:48.879 I think some of the lines may swing you wildly. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:49.600 Well. 0:00:49.600 --> 0:00:52.560 Look, it shows how much faith I have in you 0:00:52.680 --> 0:00:55.240 personally to want you to be on the Yeah, it 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:56.800 is a lot of pressure, but I know you're going 0:00:56.880 --> 0:00:59.000 to deliver. Look, we've already seen some you know, we'll 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:01.960 talk about it. With the Joe Flacco injury that you know, 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:05.959 Broncos Brown Blind has swung wildly, which you know goes 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:08.199 to show you, know, when you've got essentially a four 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.920 point swing when you lose Joe Flacco, that really shows 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:13.640 you the quality of the backup quarterback. But we will 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:16.520 get into that and every other game on the Week 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:19.039 nine slate. Now we're going to be using the consensus 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:22.160 odds over at bettingpros dot com. Unless this is your 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:24.759 first time listening, you know that consensus odds are an 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:27.520 aggregation of the odds that are available on the market. 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:30.520 As always, there are going to be differences in almost 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.119 every sports book, so shop around for the best odds. 0:01:33.120 --> 0:01:34.760 And if you ever want to see how any of 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.679 the top sports betting experts are leaning on any given 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.440 bet at any given time, Betting pros dot Com is 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:42.399 going to show you that too. All right, Andrew, let 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:44.560 us not waste any time. Let's dive right in here 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:48.360 with the forty nine Ers at the Cardinals on Thursday night. 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:51.200 Right now, the line is at forty nine ers minus ten. 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.040 When I first looked ahead, it was seven and a half. 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:55.800 The over unders at forty four and a half. Now, 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.200 the forty nine ers come off an absolutely dominant performance 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.040 against the Anthers on Sunday. I was certainly one of 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:05.920 the many who liked the Panthers getting anywhere between five 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:10.359 and six. Emmanuel Sender's already proven he's worthy worth the 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.120 addition with the touchdown, but really it's the first time 0:02:13.160 --> 0:02:15.520 they showed something with the running game since Kyle Yuschek 0:02:15.800 --> 0:02:18.400 went down. Tevin Coleman scores three touchdowns on the ground. 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:20.639 Matt Rida dealing with an ankle injury a little bit, 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:23.280 but sounds like he's going to be okay. The defense 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:29.799 remains outstanding. As for the Cardinals A Nick Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, 0:02:29.800 --> 0:02:31.120 it's okay. All yeah. 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:36.800 They had well, especially yesterday they were just really all 0:02:36.880 --> 0:02:38.840 over Kyle Allen and on the. 0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:41.560 Other side of the ball, Cardinals continue to struggle in 0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:43.840 the red zone a little bit. They make the trade 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.040 today for Kenyan Drake, so he's likely going right into 0:02:47.040 --> 0:02:49.399 the fire. David Johnson is almost certainly going to miss 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:51.880 this game. Chase Edmonds is out for multiple weeks, so 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:54.480 it's almost certain that Drake is going to get the 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.399 start here. For me, I'm a little less worried about 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:58.400 the impact when running backs get traded, although it's a 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.000 super short week so who really knows. But much bigger 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.040 deal from you when receivers get traded, so Drake should 0:03:03.040 --> 0:03:04.560 be able to get back in. He's a good pass catcher. 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:06.400 That's gonna help because they're going to play in from behind. 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:09.120 The defense is a little better with Patrick Peterson back, 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:12.359 but overall it's certainly difficult to see them winning the game. 0:03:12.400 --> 0:03:13.880 So how do you feel right now with the line 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.280 currently at forty nine ers minus ten on the road 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:18.160 to the Cardinals with an over under at forty. 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:20.280 Four and a half. If you want them, I'd say 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:22.800 go after them now, Like I don't see it getting 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:26.920 any and the number going back towards the Cardinals' favor 0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:31.320 before kickoff. Maybe Peterson gets traded. I know they haven't 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:33.200 said much about Peterson, but he could be gone too 0:03:33.280 --> 0:03:35.880 before the game, so that would be a big issue 0:03:35.920 --> 0:03:36.400 as well. 0:03:36.840 --> 0:03:39.000 I honestly, I don't understand the trade, not that you know, 0:03:39.120 --> 0:03:40.800 not to get into it too much, but I don't 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:42.960 really get it. I mean that you know, the Cardinals 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.280 are kind of hanging in their record wise because they've 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.080 beaten up on some light teams. But yeah, why are 0:03:48.080 --> 0:03:50.840 you trading for Kenyan Drake? I mean, I don't like 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:52.440 pick up a guy off the Street. You know, they 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:54.720 had Alfred Morris, they had Zach Zentner, Like, why give 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:56.720 up any draft capital for a guy when you have 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:58.680 David Nnsen for the future, Unless I could mean David 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:00.920 Johnson is seriously. 0:04:00.920 --> 0:04:05.240 Worse than it's correct, then they're letting on. I don't 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:09.680 know how much power does Cliff Kingsbury have there as well, 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:13.800 that's a question. I know the GM there hasn't made 0:04:13.880 --> 0:04:18.359 the most sound decisions there the last few years, but 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.479 I don't know. It's it's hard to have faith in 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.120 both of them. It seems. I really liked the way 0:04:25.160 --> 0:04:27.920 the Coldinals were playing last weekend'st the Saints up until 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.000 Kingsbury decided to go for it on that really weird. 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:33.479 Hey, he'd do it again, he'd just call a better play, 0:04:33.520 --> 0:04:35.400 that was what he said today. So I don't know 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:36.279 what to make of it. 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:38.680 I don't I don't know. The defense played pretty well, 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:41.559 like you said, Peterson's back Chandler Jones has played pretty 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.440 well the last few weeks. But I just I can't 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:47.240 have any faith. And like you said about the Niners, 0:04:47.240 --> 0:04:50.159 everyone's everyone's rolling. Coleman is rolling. Sanders looks like a 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:54.520 great fit, like there's there's no I can't give you 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:56.560 a good reason to take the Cardinals unless it gets 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:57.320 I don't know. 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:01.440 They're gonna Look, look, this has moved significantly because I'm 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:04.480 sure everybody is pounding pounding the forty nine ers at 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:07.080 this point. Thursday games are always a little difficult because 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:08.960 you never know how team is going to respond right 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:11.400 to the lack of rest and everything like that. This 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.280 certainly is a game where the forty nine ers should 0:05:13.320 --> 0:05:16.000 have it well in hand at ten. I mean, they're 0:05:16.000 --> 0:05:18.760 just begging you right now to take the Cardinals. I honestly, 0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:20.360 I mean, you said you'd take it now. I could 0:05:20.360 --> 0:05:22.440 see it getting past the key number, just because I 0:05:22.440 --> 0:05:24.800 could see. I don't know if this number is enough 0:05:24.839 --> 0:05:26.360 to get better is to be like, yeah, now I 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:27.680 trust the Cardinals at this point. 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.960 They just you know, so you know, people love that 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.760 that undefeated as long as the team is not the Patriots. 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:37.040 People love like the public loves like that undefeated storyline. 0:05:37.240 --> 0:05:40.240 Yeah they're also not has been a really good bet 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:41.880 this year too, at five and two eight's it probably 0:05:41.880 --> 0:05:45.440 should be six and one ats. Yeah, that Washington game. 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:46.960 The Monsoon game, I know, that was one of my 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:49.240 picks the nine and a half. I was all over it. 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:52.479 Well, if you it would have probably cashed if not 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:53.360 for that monsoon. 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.360 So I don't think we could say probably. I think 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:56.800 that's a definite cash right there. 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.440 Yeah, well you can feel better about your pick then. 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:01.839 You know, that's exactly what my boss said. He was like, 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:03.440 you know, it was a good process. I'm like, that 0:06:03.480 --> 0:06:05.160 does not make me feel. 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:07.400 Any feel better about this. 0:06:07.480 --> 0:06:09.279 But anyway, I think in the end, at this line, 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:11.280 I don't think either one of us feels comfortable at 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:14.200 minus ten either way. Really, I don't really know if 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:16.080 it's going to move. I mean it's moved significantly. I 0:06:16.080 --> 0:06:17.719 think it's going to be right around here. But this 0:06:17.800 --> 0:06:20.080 is not a game either at the over under or 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.359 the line that I am particularly targeting. Let's move on 0:06:22.440 --> 0:06:25.520 here to the Texans at the Jaguars. It's currently Texans 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:28.120 minus three. It was Texans minus one and a half 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:29.880 at the look a headline when I saw it. The 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:33.839 over unders at forty seven. The Texans survive against the Raiders, 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.080 a close game. They do lose JJ Watt to a 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:38.720 torn peck. You know, I don't know, I don't know. 0:06:38.800 --> 0:06:40.640 I don't know how much of a difference that's going 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:42.360 to make. I mean I didn't. To me, it didn't 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:44.159 seem like what was making that much of an impact. 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:46.599 But of course it is a loss otherwise, kind. 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:50.520 Of just g and they they they haven't gotten to 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:54.080 the quarterback all year long. Right, as much as he 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.240 isn't the guy that he has been in the past, 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:58.640 you still have to account for him. And that's still 0:06:58.640 --> 0:07:02.240 a loss for them, and that could mean good news 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:03.040 for minshew Mania. 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:06.279 Yeah. I look, he came back, you know, in prime 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:08.800 fashion this weekend against the Jets. I believe you threw 0:07:09.120 --> 0:07:11.680 for three touchdowns. And I mean that wasn't a competitive 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:14.120 game that the Jaguar sacked Sam Darnold eight times. I 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.200 don't really know if you can take anything from it, 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.720 just because the Jets are in such disarray here. 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:20.520 So look, we can get into that later. 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.320 Yeah, we will never talk about that as a Jets fan, 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.040 I am scrapping it from the show. But so here 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:27.960 we've got the Texans now laying three again. This has 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.360 moved I liked it when it was Texans laying one 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.480 and a half. I think I felt relatively comfortable with 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.520 them at the key number of three. I'm not really 0:07:35.600 --> 0:07:38.000 certain how great I feel in the over UNDERD forty seven, 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:38.840 any reaction to that. 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:41.000 So this is a London game. Remember this is we 0:07:41.040 --> 0:07:43.800 get another all day football day this week, so it's 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:47.080 the nine o'clock game. This is theres the Jags seventh 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:50.800 straight season playing in London, and I think there has 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.880 to be some sort of advantage to that. Houston has 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:59.360 never done the London trip, and look at teams like Chicago, 0:07:59.360 --> 0:08:01.680 who's staff and never done that before, and they were like, oh, 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:03.920 let's just go Friday. Let's let's see how that goes. 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.000 Such a great point, such a great point. 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:08.640 And then they lose to Oakland and the Bears just 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:09.679 haven't looked the same since. 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:11.280 For and Oakland, by the way, went out early in 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.160 the week, right, Yes, that was it. And I remember 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:15.080 thinking about that game and being like, man, this looks 0:08:15.080 --> 0:08:17.000 like such a spot for the Bears given the spread. 0:08:17.040 --> 0:08:19.240 And I think I was probably under selling the Raiders 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.080 to be fair, because they have played a little better, 0:08:21.240 --> 0:08:24.320 particularly offensively, But that when I saw that, I was like, 0:08:24.360 --> 0:08:26.680 why are you going out so late? I mean, that's 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:27.120 that's off. 0:08:27.480 --> 0:08:29.240 I was shocked. There's a huge Bears fan in our 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:32.280 office and we had a big, big debate about it, 0:08:32.280 --> 0:08:33.840 and he's like, no, no, no, this is fine. I 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:35.680 was like, I don't know about that, and it didn't 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:37.800 turn out to be fine. And I don't know the 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:40.400 Texans I was trying to find it. I don't know 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:42.480 their travel schedule. I don't know if they've left already 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:44.920 or if they're they're already. But I know the Jags 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.840 always every year they're there for the full week and 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.160 they get a climb, they get a climatized, they know 0:08:51.280 --> 0:08:53.839 the routine now, they're used to it, and there's got 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:58.120 to be something said for that. They've before last last 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.439 year's lost to Philly, they had covered in one straight 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:05.360 in London. So I don't know, it's it's our Deshaun 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.760 Watson's obviously an MVP candidate right now. Just that touchdown 0:09:08.800 --> 0:09:09.640 was in the same by the way. 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:12.200 Yeah, I mean that's how it works. You have one eye, 0:09:12.240 --> 0:09:14.199 you can do anything, Watson. 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:17.520 It's gonna be interesting because Houston's good against the run. 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:20.560 The Jacks have done most of their damage things to our 0:09:20.600 --> 0:09:26.120 resurgent Leonard Fournett. Yeah, so it's for me if that goes, 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:27.959 If it goes beyond a field goal. I think I 0:09:28.000 --> 0:09:30.440 think i'd lean towards the Jaguars, but right now I'm not. 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.560 I'm not comfortable in uh in either way. I just 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:36.240 I just I really think there's an advantage. The Jaguars 0:09:36.280 --> 0:09:39.679 have an advantage here that that that can't be overlooked. 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:41.679 It's a really great point about them going out there 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.520 all the time. I mean, I flew out there to 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:45.800 see the Jets play the Dolphins a couple of years ago, 0:09:45.840 --> 0:09:48.360 and I flew out into Friday and I was totally exhausted, 0:09:48.440 --> 0:09:50.800 So I mean that should really translate now. The one 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:52.320 thing I look at here is I kind of like 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:54.360 the under. At least it not not a huge thing, 0:09:54.400 --> 0:09:56.160 but right I mean, I feel like the travel the 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.600 teams aren't going to be super sharp, and that can 0:09:58.640 --> 0:10:00.920 cut both ways, but I feel like generally the first 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.200 time they played it was a really close, low scoring game. 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:05.439 I could kind of see the defenses coming out to 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.960 play here. So with the forty seven, which you know 0:10:08.080 --> 0:10:11.200 is fairly on the high side, my initial gut says, 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.480 if you like, I kind of like the under, but 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:16.719 not not strongly, but it's definitely something that that kind 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:18.760 of calls out to me more than the spread. Let's 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:21.080 move on here to the Bears at the Eagles. The 0:10:21.120 --> 0:10:23.880 Eagles are currently laying five, and the over under at 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:26.400 forty four has not moved all that much. Look, the 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:30.080 Eagles really nice rebound win here against the Bills. They 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:32.520 continue to get a little bit healthier overall, both in 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:36.280 the secondary and Deshaun Jackson possibly coming back. I haven't 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.560 seen anything on Miles Sanders other than everything was optimistic. 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:43.560 After he litistic, I heard Peterson say day to day okay, 0:10:44.240 --> 0:10:46.959 which obviously is a big He seems to be their 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:50.240 best besides Jackson, of course, their big home run threat. 0:10:50.280 --> 0:10:53.080 Now yeah, now I think Sprolls may return here. Not 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.120 that he's the same caliber, but at least gives it 0:10:55.240 --> 0:10:58.440 that sort of, you know, explosive threat, at least in 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:02.040 the passing game. Meanwhile, the Bears continued just to be 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:04.960 completely lost. Mitchell Trubisky probably isn't all that far away 0:11:04.960 --> 0:11:07.520 from getting benched at this poor The run defense is 0:11:07.559 --> 0:11:09.680 not the same without a Keem Hicks. They did go 0:11:09.840 --> 0:11:12.400 heavy on the run offensively, which was kind of nice 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:14.960 to see. Dave Montgomery had a big game. Perhaps they'll 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:16.720 try to do that but you can't really do that 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.040 against the Eagles. That's their strength right the line. It's 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:20.400 hard to run on them. So how do you feel here? 0:11:20.440 --> 0:11:23.920 Eagles laying five over under at forty four in Philadelphia? 0:11:24.000 --> 0:11:28.400 I was actually seeing threes earlier today, so that jumped 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.960 to me. Just all it says is nobody has any 0:11:32.000 --> 0:11:35.080 faith in Mitch anymore. And he's he is now Mitch again. 0:11:35.120 --> 0:11:39.760 He's reverted from Mitchell back to Mitch, like you said, like, 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.120 I don't know when they closed the door on him, 0:11:44.160 --> 0:11:47.760 but it's that door is closing really fast. It's it's 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:50.920 been bad. Like I said that that bear's been in 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.800 our office is having is having panic. Also the kicking game, 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.920 obviously they should have won the game shut but they 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:00.000 shouldn't be in that position against the Chargers team like 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:01.640 that anyway, at home, they should not. 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:05.280 It seems this one to me, I can't see how 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.520 you take the Bears here at minus five, right, I mean, 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:09.000 I'm not saying you have to run out and take 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:10.880 the Eagles and mine. You know why if you saw 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:12.880 it at three, why it's now at minus five because 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:14.680 everybody should have hit that, you know, with the Eagles 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:16.240 at home, it's not even like the Bears get the 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:18.480 home field advantage. The one thing I would think about 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.760 here might be again the under, and I generally lean 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.200 towards the unders anyway. It's at forty four. That's not 0:12:24.200 --> 0:12:26.360 a huge number or anything, but you know, the Eagles 0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.800 kind of are notorious for starting really, really really slow 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:31.560 during games. They take a while to get out there. 0:12:31.640 --> 0:12:33.960 The Bears just no matter what they do, they're not 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.280 going to be dynamic offensively, and I think they probably said, 0:12:37.320 --> 0:12:39.280 you know, even though we lost the game, we were 0:12:39.320 --> 0:12:41.480 able to move the ball effectively on the ground. I 0:12:41.480 --> 0:12:43.640 think you'd see them try to run it as best 0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:45.520 as I can, which is going to be tough against 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.160 the Eagles. But you know, again I don't see either team. 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:49.840 I know the Eagles put up a ton of points 0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.320 this weekend against the Bills, but I still kind of 0:12:52.400 --> 0:12:54.760 lean to one of these games where the Eagles win 0:12:54.960 --> 0:12:57.880 and probably would cover at minus five. I don't feel 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:00.360 super strongly about it, but I think it's probably more 0:13:00.400 --> 0:13:01.719 like an under. I don't know if you had any 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:02.720 feeling on that part. 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:08.120 I like, I like the idea that the Bears can't 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:10.920 do what they do best against this Eagles defense and 0:13:11.480 --> 0:13:14.400 that just is gonna lead to more low scoring and 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.320 I have no faith in Mitchell Trubisky right now. 0:13:16.559 --> 0:13:18.520 I think that's really what sums it up. 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.319 Right, Yeah, And I think that's what I think. That's 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:23.760 what that early line move indicates as well. And I 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.240 just it's it's hard. It's hard to see them scoring 0:13:27.320 --> 0:13:29.680 right now. Nobody has any confidence in the kicking game 0:13:29.760 --> 0:13:32.320 and the offense, and like you said, a team Hicks 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:34.199 is out and that hurts. But the biggest problem I 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:37.440 think with the defense is I think they rate sixteenth 0:13:37.520 --> 0:13:40.720 or something like that, like nothing you'd expect on in 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:45.040 a DVOA against the rush, and that's just because they 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.520 can't sustain drives. They just they can't. They can't stay 0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:50.600 on the field. And by the second half, that team 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:55.080 is gassed and they're just getting pushed around in a 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.599 way you never thought would be possible against it with 0:13:58.880 --> 0:14:00.600 some of the players that are on that So. 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.640 You know, what probably is the play here, which you 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.120 can't see, It would probably be like the first half 0:14:05.200 --> 0:14:07.240 under right, like it would be like you know, by 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.120 the second half, the defense is gashed and there's going 0:14:10.160 --> 0:14:12.280 to be some scoring. The Eagles usually start slow so 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:14.079 if anything, maybe the first half. 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.000 Under These two teams combined to score just over a 0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.520 touchdown in the first quarter per game, so even maybe 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:22.920 even the first quarter under right would be a nice 0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:23.440 one as well. 0:14:23.600 --> 0:14:25.040 Yeah, I like it, but this one's going to be 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:26.760 interesting to see where it goes. I think the fact 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:28.520 that it's moved already to minds five, I can't see 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.400 it getting much higher than that. I mean, the Eagles 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:33.520 have not played particularly well, but I don't really expect 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:35.720 it to go down much more than maybe have a point, 0:14:35.720 --> 0:14:36.960 depending on how the money comes in. 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.000 If you like the Eagles once again, i'd take them now. 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.320 It could get to six. So if you want to 0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.520 get them, get them at five, at five five and 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:45.600 a half before it gets to that. 0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:49.000 Yeah, the next game is a little difficult to analyze 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:51.720 because most most players don't have lines on that at all. 0:14:51.760 --> 0:14:54.840 I haven't actually seen an over under on it. All right, 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:56.440 it's the Viking set the Chiefs, So we'll just do 0:14:56.520 --> 0:15:00.760 this one really quickly. We don't know Trick Mahomes is 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:02.680 going to play. My guess is he's still not. You know, 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:05.160 initial estimates were at least three weeks. I know he's 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:06.600 like superhuman or whatever. 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.760 I guess have a fun inside analysis for this. Actually, 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:14.520 I did this exact thing to my knee this summer 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:18.360 playing golf. I dislocated the kneecap, put the patella out 0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:23.760 of place. And I am no Patrick Homes, and I 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:26.920 am not even anything close to an athlete, I would say, 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:30.600 but I went, I went into the hospital, they set 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.080 the knee, and I walked out of there that day 0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.440 and the doctor told me I could be playing golf 0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.000 within two to three weeks. And I am no athlete. 0:15:39.480 --> 0:15:42.440 So so you're what you're saying is that Patrick Mahomes 0:15:42.440 --> 0:15:43.120 is coming back this. 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.480 Week and throwing five touchdowns as the MVP. Whatever. 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:48.640 That's fine. Well, the only thing we have here, just 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:50.360 to be clear, is we have a couple We have 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.680 one book, I think only one book on at least 0:15:54.120 --> 0:15:56.680 on betting pros, and that's Fandal and right now it's 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.360 Vikings minus three, which is the only other line I've 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.880 seen from a couple of other books. That's all we 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.240 have right now. So I assume that that is acting 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.280 as if Mahomes is not going to play, because I 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.000 what do you think out of curiosity the spread is 0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:13.240 going to be if Mahomes played, because to me at 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:16.200 home and Arrowhead, I know the Vikings are flying high. 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:18.560 They looked great. You know, they didn't they didn't dominate 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:20.640 against the Redskins or anything like that, but they didn't 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.000 have Adam Feelin, who should be back. Since they've opened 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:25.120 up the passing game a little more, everything looks a 0:16:25.120 --> 0:16:27.760 little bit stronger. The Chiefs are what they are, you know. 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:29.960 And again, even against the Packers and I like them, 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.360 in that game, they were still beat up defensively. I 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:34.680 thought I thought Chris Jones might make it back for 0:16:34.720 --> 0:16:36.160 that game, but he didn't. They were beat up on 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.400 the offensive line. If Mahomes played, this strikes me as 0:16:39.440 --> 0:16:42.600 a like, you know, a Chief's minus, you know, a 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:44.160 small favorite for the Chiefs. I don't know how you 0:16:44.160 --> 0:16:44.680 feel about it. 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.520 I think it would almost swing a full touchdown. 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.360 To be honest, really through all those key numbers, Okay, I. 0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:52.960 Think it would be somewhere around Chiefs minus three, if 0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.880 up to four, depending on how it was. That sort 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.840 of thing. Okay, that's how That's how good I think 0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:01.880 he is, and that's how valuable I think he is 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:02.960 to the spread. Right now. 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:04.960 I think that that is fair well, it doesn't really 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:06.840 make much sense to talk about too much since we 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.240 have literally one book on one will be over under or. 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:16.680 One quick thing. Sure, the Vikings have what they need 0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:19.159 to win there. They run the ball really well. The 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.160 Chiefs really struggle stopping the run. Like look at Alex 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:26.480 Aaron Jones last night. He had a field day against them. 0:17:26.520 --> 0:17:30.920 So if that is the number, they have the ability 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:31.560 to cover it. 0:17:31.800 --> 0:17:33.719 And even with Mahomes playing by the way, I mean, 0:17:34.040 --> 0:17:36.760