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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the square sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I'm Chad Milman. I am joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my BFF, my companion, Mike and Fadre, my

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Speaker 1: co host Professional Better Simon Hunter Ello. Simon Chad.

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Speaker 2: Are we doing, my brother?

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk a little NFL today because we're

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Speaker 1: going to do part two of our NFL Win Totals

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Speaker 1: episode that we started a couple weeks ago with part one.

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Speaker 1: Last time, we did all the NFL win totals for

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Speaker 1: teams that had totals of ten or more in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty six at hard Rock Bets. Again, these were just

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Speaker 1: released in the last few weeks, so that's why we're

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Speaker 1: talking about them now. Today we're going to cover everybody

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Speaker 1: else so far we have talked about like in Buffalo

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Speaker 1: over ten and a half. I also took Carolina over

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Speaker 1: six and a half. I believe you called that quote

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Speaker 1: a trap unquote, and that was before they made any signings.

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Speaker 1: We followed up on that a little bit with Barnwell.

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Speaker 1: Some of the stories that have been driving the news

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Speaker 1: for the NFL since we did part one, so we'll

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Speaker 1: see if these change anything for us. Obviously, the Max

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Speaker 1: Crosby trade that was then canceled, Baltimore followed it up

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Speaker 1: by signing Trey Hendrickson. Tua has gone to Atlanta. He

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Speaker 1: will be the starter. Presumptively Kyler to Minnesota, so we

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Speaker 1: know we're going to want to talk about Minnesota, like

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Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy has to be so excited about that. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: added Michael Pittman and ric o'dowdell. Justin Fields is going

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Speaker 1: to be backing up and maybe starting in Kansas City

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Speaker 1: to start the year, depending on the homes recovery from

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Speaker 1: his acl Christian Kirk and Mike Evans to San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: You know, I always love looking for an excuse to

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Speaker 1: bet on the Niners. H Dallas traded for Sean Gary

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Speaker 1: from Green Bay at defensive end, Dallas Goddard, we've signed

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Speaker 1: with Philly. They also acquired Rik Wolan. They got rid

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Speaker 1: of Reblanken ship, or at least he walked away. And

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Speaker 1: then just this week on Tuesday, Jaylen Waddell traded from

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Speaker 1: Miami to Denver. Before we get into anything Simon. I

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Speaker 1: just listed off a lot of movement, which one of

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Speaker 1: those when you heard about him, and since you've heard

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Speaker 1: about him most peaks your interest is most exciting to you.

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Speaker 1: Do you think was the smartest play?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're aligned that. How do you not

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Speaker 2: like the Vikings move right? That was it?

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Speaker 1: That was it for me.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just it's only upside, Like we all know

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Speaker 2: what the dealers with the kid. He has tons of talent.

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Speaker 2: It's just like, can he put the work in?

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Speaker 3: And this will be the first time in my mind

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Speaker 3: that you'll have probably the best coach of his career.

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Speaker 3: So I and just someone that's gonna be super hard.

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Speaker 3: He's gonna tell him like, hey, your last team gave

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Speaker 3: up on you.

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Speaker 2: I think he's gonna tell him that every day and

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Speaker 2: being like you're not this untouchable guy now, like you're here.

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Speaker 3: Your other team's paying for you to come play for us.

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Speaker 3: That's how much they gave up on you. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I love that move from Minnesota. And we talked about

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Speaker 3: the Ravens move I I I mean, there, it's a

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Speaker 3: bad look. It's embarrassing for the Ravens organization, but totally

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Speaker 3: agree with the totally agree with the move. Like if

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Speaker 3: you find something that tells you, hey, in two three years,

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Speaker 3: this guy might need another surgery on this knee and

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Speaker 3: this might be a problem going forward.

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Speaker 2: You do you fail the physical and you don't, you don't.

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Speaker 3: Trade those picks away. So you know, if you're the

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Speaker 3: Browns and you don't draft ball anyway. Sure, I shouldn't

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Speaker 3: say the Browns did draft well last year, but you know,

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Speaker 3: all these teams aren't great at drafting.

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Speaker 2: Sure, trade away your first round picks.

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Speaker 3: The Ravens feels like they're pretty good at drafting first

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Speaker 3: round picks, so that was a bizarre move. Now they

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Speaker 3: get those picks backs and get Trey Hendrickson. It's it

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Speaker 3: feels like a great move for them. And as an

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Speaker 3: Eagles fan that's still hearing all the rumors about AJ Brown,

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Speaker 3: the AJ Brown to the Raiders for Max Crosby deal

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Speaker 3: is now a real possibility, so that Max Crossey think

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Speaker 3: does not feel done yet. Like I know that he

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Speaker 3: went back in the next morning. I think it was

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Speaker 3: like eight am. He was in and rehabbing at the

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Speaker 3: rare facility the next morning. Like he's just that's the

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Speaker 3: kind of guy he is. Right, he didn't miss a beat.

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Speaker 3: So to me, if you're the Raiders, you know you

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Speaker 3: can you can hold on to him. It's not that bad,

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Speaker 3: but I think and the end of the dead they

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Speaker 3: want to move him for a piece that's going to

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Speaker 3: help their franchise quarterbacks. So that was I don't know, you,

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Speaker 3: that was by far the most shocking thing of the

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Speaker 3: whole offseason.

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Speaker 2: Like that, that never happens.

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Speaker 3: Rescinding a trade like that to first round picks, chat,

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Speaker 3: I was truly shocked, and I can't remember another time

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Speaker 3: this has happening.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, that was the shocking move to begin with,

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Speaker 1: was getting rid of the first two picks, because it's

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Speaker 1: just out of character for the Ravens, right, they have

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Speaker 1: had a history of drafting really really well in the

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Speaker 1: first round. And then rescinding the trade was even more

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Speaker 1: out of character for the Ravens and for really just

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Speaker 1: how the NFL operates. But going to get Trey Hendrickson,

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Speaker 1: to me, I loved it because Max crossmy to me,

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Speaker 1: was a two to three year trade. Right, he's twenty eight,

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Speaker 1: twenty nine. We talked about this when we talked about

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Speaker 1: should the Bears be giving up Dj Moore in a

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Speaker 1: first round pick to go get Max Crosby. It's because

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Speaker 1: you feel like you're in the window with the Bears

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Speaker 1: where you're going to try to get maximum value for

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Speaker 1: this team for the next two years. Tops that's really

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Speaker 1: what you're playing for. You want to win the super

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Speaker 1: Bowl in that window. And I think it's the same

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Speaker 1: thing for the Ravens. So basically what they did was say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: we got a guy who's reaching his peak and might

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Speaker 1: have two to three great years left in Max Crosby.

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Speaker 1: We're going to walk away. Let's go get someone who

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Speaker 1: might be one or two years in Trey Hendrickson, but

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Speaker 1: it will be enough with the rest of our team

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Speaker 1: that it will laid the foundation for something great with

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Speaker 1: a new coach. I love the way they operate that

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Speaker 1: they are they're so good at this, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean, Like they're just some people never get good

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Speaker 1: at it, and some people are always good at it,

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Speaker 1: and they are always good at it.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's funny the books.

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Speaker 3: The books had moved them to eleven and then back

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Speaker 3: down to ten and a half. So that was interesting

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Speaker 3: watching the Ravens line move that they give them half

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Speaker 3: a win. They got Max, and they didn't move it

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Speaker 3: at all. Good and tray, So that was that was

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Speaker 3: good by the books.

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Speaker 1: Well, maybe there's value there, Simon. Maybe maybe maybe maybe

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Speaker 1: the other thing you just said, I thought they was

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Speaker 1: so smart. Kevin McCarthy is going to say to Kyler

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Speaker 1: every day, we are getting paid to take you like

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Speaker 1: you think you're so great. You are a tremendous athlete,

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Speaker 1: you are a two sport athlete. You could have gone

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Speaker 1: to do anything. You think you're so great, and your

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Speaker 1: other team does not want you so badly they're begging

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Speaker 1: us to take you. They are giving us money to

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Speaker 1: take you. That is a great motivator. It will be

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Speaker 1: really interesting to test the McCarthy whisper phenomenon on Kyler,

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Speaker 1: right because Kirk Cousins it worked, Daniel Jones, it worked,

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Speaker 1: Sam Darnold, it worked, JJ McCarthy. It kind of hasn't worked.

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Speaker 1: What is Kyler? Kyler is a better athlete than all

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Speaker 1: of those guys, but he has your reputation of not

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Speaker 1: being a guy who's committed to football. If Kevin McCarthy

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Speaker 1: can do anything close to what he did with the

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Speaker 1: other guys who have gone on to make tons and

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Speaker 1: tons of money, that's going to be really interesting, which

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Speaker 1: means when we talk about the Minnesota Vikings, who are

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Speaker 1: at what seven and a half I think eight and

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Speaker 1: a half, all of a sudden with Kyler and the

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Speaker 1: reputation of McCarthy, do we think, oh, that's interesting.

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Speaker 2: Don't it. Yeah, I'm with you.

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Speaker 3: I don't hate the if you're taking the over because

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Speaker 3: it's plus one ten at a hard rock eight and

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Speaker 3: a half, So you did miss the value. Like ched said,

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Speaker 3: it was seven and a half. The Kyler move give

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Speaker 3: them gave him a win. We've seen it with Kyler.

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Speaker 3: Like Kyler, his biggest issue is, like with Chedd's talked

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Speaker 3: about the commitment. Like Kyler in a contract year, what

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Speaker 3: he get eleven twelve wins?

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Speaker 2: That's what this is.

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Speaker 3: Let's say contract year for him now right, this is

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Speaker 3: a one year proved deal. So if you're going to

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Speaker 3: back a Kyler Murray to be motivated, this has to

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Speaker 3: be the year.

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Speaker 2: I mean next year.

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Speaker 3: If they give him whatever one hundred and fifty million

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Speaker 3: over three years next year in Minnesota, I think me

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Speaker 3: and child will definitely back away from taking him next year.

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Speaker 3: But you want to back Kyler in the year that

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Speaker 3: he's motivated so I'm with you on that's a that's

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Speaker 3: a sneaky place, especially at plus one ten. I think

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Speaker 3: that that flips to minus one ten of course where

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Speaker 3: we get the start of the season.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I like that overplay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's like Kyler and all of a sudden being

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Speaker 1: in the NFC North that division, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray,

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, Jared Goff all of a sudden is sort

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Speaker 1: of the least interesting quarterback and that team, by the way,

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Speaker 1: is looking more and more like an underplay. The Lions

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Speaker 1: with all the offensive line issues they're having. Just think

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Speaker 1: like two years ago, this team they were freaking primed.

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Speaker 1: They had the offensive line that was bulldozing people, right,

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Speaker 1: they had like Ben Johnson. Like this team, that window

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Speaker 1: is closed. I just I feel terrible for them, I do.

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Speaker 2: I know.

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Speaker 3: That's why any team that has a standalone top five,

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Speaker 3: top ten quarterback, it's the ultimate cheek code for being

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Speaker 3: a football fan, because it doesn't matter if you lose

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Speaker 3: a Ben Johnson, you got the quarterback.

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Speaker 2: You'll figure it out.

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Speaker 3: Again, I'm not trying to poopoo golf, but we all

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Speaker 3: know the deal, right, It's like he needs it to

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Speaker 3: be perfect to be a top ten quarterback. And yeah,

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Speaker 3: this division we've been talking about it's the bears one

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Speaker 3: of last year. It feels like the same type of

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Speaker 3: deal this year. It's a really going to be a

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Speaker 3: toss up. Who can stay healthy is going to really

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Speaker 3: be the deterrent for this this division. It feels like

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Speaker 3: there's just so much talent across all four teams.

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Speaker 1: All right at the bottom of the pile right now,

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Speaker 1: Arizona four and a half, Miami four and a half,

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas, New York Jets five and a half. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to do a quick comment and then I want

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Speaker 1: you to tell me agree or disagree? Ready, Arizona four

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Speaker 1: and a half under agree, Miami four and a half under?

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Speaker 1: I agree, Las Vegas five and a half, Fernando, but

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Speaker 1: I'm still taking the under.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an under.

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Speaker 1: New York Jets five and a half. I might take

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Speaker 1: the alt under here. If there's a three and a half,

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Speaker 1: I might just take that. And if there's an Aaron

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Speaker 1: Glenn first coach to be fired, I might probably the

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Speaker 1: whole thing.

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Speaker 2: I agree the Raiders the only one, the only team

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Speaker 2: that feels like A're gonna try to win out of

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Speaker 2: all the teams you just said, everyone else they want

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Speaker 2: the top pick, whether that be meaning we don't even

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Speaker 2: know right, it's you never know who's gonna be a

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Speaker 2: number one pick this early. Like Fernana Mendez I believe

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Speaker 2: was one thousand to one or not one thousand and

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Speaker 2: one plus one thousand to be a number one pick

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Speaker 2: at this point last year.

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Speaker 1: So and by the way, don't forget what was it

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Speaker 1: before the NFL season ended. At one point on.

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Speaker 2: The show, you're like minus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Banano Menosa's minus one fifty, Like go bet them

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Speaker 1: right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's it's it's it's good.

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Speaker 3: It's a sad, sad state when it's like all these

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Speaker 3: teams we know they're gonna tank because usual the NFL

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Speaker 3: is not like that. You could kind of lie to

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Speaker 3: yourself and say, well, these teams are gonna try. Like

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Speaker 3: you get a team like the Cleveland Browns that they're terrible,

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Speaker 3: they still got the five wins, like they were still trying,

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Speaker 3: Like those guys in the defense were still trying. Some

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Speaker 3: of these teams this year that that Jet just mentioned,

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Speaker 3: like Arizona, I don't know what what's going to be

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Speaker 3: the motivated fact they're there, right, they're just gonna get

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Speaker 3: rid of all these players on this team. They're going

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Speaker 3: to be paying all this dead money. They're not going

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Speaker 3: to try to win. And same with the Jets. Like

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Speaker 3: bringing back Aaron Glenn such a strange, strange look and move.

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Speaker 1: So, by the way, bringing back Geno Smith.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know.

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Speaker 3: So it's like Geno, gen Know and Aaron Glenn they

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Speaker 3: could win six games because they're idiots.

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Speaker 2: Like that could happen with that team.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, the Jets, I don't know what to do

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Speaker 3: with them, but they're another team by just it's hard

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Speaker 3: to think of them get over two or three wins.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that was an interesting move Geno Smith. That's

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Speaker 1: how bad it's gotten. The Jets are signing him. It's

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Speaker 1: a terrible combination for everybody. It can you know, like

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Speaker 1: that's Geno Smith looks good because Justin Fields was so bad.

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Speaker 1: That's really what it is. This next batch, Carolina six

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Speaker 1: and a half. I felt like you started to come

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Speaker 1: around to my side the other day when Barnwell was

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Speaker 1: on because they made some good signings. The biggest issue

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Speaker 1: I think you have is that they've got to play

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Speaker 1: the harder schedule. Now because they came in first. But

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Speaker 1: I contend that their division, they could potentially get six

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Speaker 1: wins in their division.

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Speaker 3: No Jesus, you're out of your mind now with that comment.

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Speaker 3: A good year with them getting four wins in their division,

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Speaker 3: that would be it.

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Speaker 1: Fine, four give them four wins, that's best case. They

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Speaker 1: can find three wins the other thirteen games.

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Speaker 2: I know, but you think they're going to win their division?

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Speaker 2: Who they sweeping? They sweeping the Saints.

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Speaker 3: The Saints are just as good as like, don't don't

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Speaker 3: put disrespect on Shuck.

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Speaker 1: Look, the Saints have a higher wind total than the

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Speaker 1: Panthers right now.

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Speaker 2: Right, So that's what I mean.

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Speaker 3: It's like, dude, they got to play the Bears, they

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Speaker 3: got to play the Eagles like that first place schedule.

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Speaker 2: Man, they got to play the Seattle Seahawks. It's tough.

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Speaker 2: It is really tough.

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Speaker 3: So that's just why I'm trying to ward you off.

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Speaker 3: It's a fishy line. But your early bet, if you

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Speaker 3: didn't make it, was right because I think it was

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Speaker 3: minus one twenty. Now it's up to the minus one

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Speaker 3: fifty at hard Rock or minus one forty.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, the money's coming in on there.

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Speaker 3: Total I just as soon as I saw that line,

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Speaker 3: I'm like, my god, the public is gonna hamder that

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Speaker 3: Carolina Panthers line. And that is the fishes of fishy lines,

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Speaker 3: Like why is it not seven and a half? I

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Speaker 3: don't get why they open at six and a half.

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Speaker 3: They opened it that way because they want to take

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Speaker 3: money to the over So that's just why I was like,

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Speaker 3: be careful here, But I told you, I'll support you.

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Speaker 2: It's we're a Carolina Panthers show.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I'll support it, but I just don't want

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Speaker 3: the fans to be making one of their bigger bets.

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Speaker 2: There's others, safer bets to bet for win totals.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe the Carolina Panthers don't sponsor our show.

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Speaker 1: They should makes no sense. They don't have a they

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Speaker 1: don't get this much national attention from anybody.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean for good reason. Though. It's like no

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Speaker 2: one's turning in to hear the Panthers talk. Remember that Panthers.

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Speaker 3: Podcast that folded no No, So basically this Panthers podcast

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Speaker 3: folded up because they were just like they can't take

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Speaker 3: it anymore. Both the guys said, like it's like affecting

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Speaker 3: their lives, and then all of a sudden, the Panthers

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Speaker 3: won like a bunch of games in a row. So

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Speaker 3: it became this whole thing where everyone was like, you,

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Speaker 3: guys can never come back because now the Panthers are winning.

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Speaker 3: It was just the whole thing. But that's how hard

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Speaker 3: it is being a Panthers fan. They're making guys quit

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Speaker 3: their hobby podcast because's affecting their life that much negatively.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I didn't know we could just quit

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Speaker 1: shows if it was affecting our lives, because there are

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Speaker 1: so many ways the show affects our lives negatively. If

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Speaker 1: we could just quit, that'd be fantastic. Cleveland and Tennessee

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Speaker 1: both six and a half. Look, I think six and

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Speaker 1: a half feels a little bit high for Tennessee and Cleveland.

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Speaker 1: It's fair because I don't know, you're kind of on

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Speaker 1: the Deshaun Watson bandwagon here, and I keep seeing this,

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Speaker 1: I've seen this. I don't know if it's like becoming

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Speaker 1: a media narrative if everyone is having the same conversation

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Speaker 1: amongst themselves and you know, but why are people so

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Speaker 1: excited that Deshaun Watson could all of a sudden be

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Speaker 1: what he hasn't been in five years. Like everyone's saying

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson that he could come back, and I just

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Speaker 1: I'm not getting it.

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Speaker 3: So if Chad asked me a question and I give

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Speaker 3: a response to it, now I'm in love with the team.

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Speaker 3: You asked me your favorite long shot, I said one

333
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Speaker 3: hundred and thirty oh one Cleveland Browns because Deshaun Watson's

334
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Speaker 3: coming back. And now I'm a big Deshaun Watson guy.

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Speaker 3: This is very big.

336
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Speaker 2: Brand for Chad the guy I said, the guys could

337
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Speaker 2: be totally washed. It's the train wreck of the season.

338
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Speaker 2: But the books are being very telling right now.

339
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Speaker 3: Where Cleveland's plus one twenty five at hard Rock over

340
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Speaker 3: six and a half Tennessee is a minus uh one

341
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Speaker 3: to five. Yeah, right, and that is because of the divisions, right,

342
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Speaker 3: Like we don't know what the culture gonna be, Daniel

343
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Speaker 3: Jen's coming back from a huge injury, who their quarterback

344
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Speaker 3: is even going to be. Jaguars, it's fair to say

345
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Speaker 3: they overachieved a little bit last year, Like it was

346
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Speaker 3: pretty impressive. How good you know they were last year?

347
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Speaker 3: And can they build on that or was that just

348
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,119
Speaker 3: a fluke the first year offense? And we still have

349
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Speaker 3: a lot of questions about Tarbor Lawrence especially, and yeah,

350
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Speaker 3: the Tennessee I think maybe the pros are bencheck is

351
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 3: the new coach bump right. You think Salid comes in

352
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,679
Speaker 3: there fixes that defense a little bit. But to me,

353
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Speaker 3: they have so many holes, like you need it, you'd

354
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Speaker 3: need CJ takes such a huge step the year two,

355
00:17:48,800 --> 00:17:52,440
Speaker 3: you can, so I would take the over. I agree

356
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Speaker 3: with the pros early bet on that one. I wouldn't

357
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Speaker 3: take the underhim for Cleveland as much as I'm propping

358
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Speaker 3: up to Sean Watson those odds and over under six

359
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 3: and a half in that division, I would agree with

360
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:04,119
Speaker 3: the pros. The under six and a half feels like

361
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:05,200
Speaker 3: it's safe for a bet.

362
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 1: Atlanta a quick one ready, Atlanta seven and a half,

363
00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the I'm going with the over.

364
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's what I mean. Like this division, I'll

365
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,399
Speaker 3: probably be on every team's over. Honestly, like thes, I

366
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,280
Speaker 3: really looked at Dick in the under because Atlanta has enough.

367
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,880
Speaker 2: Talent they could get the ten wins. It's like if Toua.

368
00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 3: Has good pass blocking, which he should have there, and

369
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,680
Speaker 3: he has good weapons, he could be great. If Pennson's

370
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 3: back from his injury and he's all right, this could

371
00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:43,920
Speaker 3: be a good offense, Like there's a lot of upside.

372
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:45,359
Speaker 2: But it's Atlanta team.

373
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Speaker 3: And you know at hard Rock the plus one oh

374
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Speaker 3: five to the over seven and a half. So yeah,

375
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Speaker 3: I'm not betting right now, Like there's no way I'm

376
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Speaker 3: locking up money to Atlanta Falcons in the march in March,

377
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Speaker 3: but they are attempting line, especially at this number.

378
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,800
Speaker 1: New Orleans seven and a half. All right, I know

379
00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,680
Speaker 1: you're taking the over. Yeah, I'm interested in New Orleans

380
00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,840
Speaker 1: because I really want to see how well Tyler Shuck

381
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Speaker 1: does next year.

382
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Speaker 2: That's the part here two of Shuck.

383
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, that's it is are they building on that.

384
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Speaker 2: Or they're getting four wins like they're they're a team.

385
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Speaker 3: I'm gonna have been an alternative over unders, like I'm going

386
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,040
Speaker 3: to take the over eight and a half over nine

387
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 3: and a half, and I'm going to be taken the

388
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Speaker 3: under five and a half under under four and a

389
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Speaker 3: half like this is it wasn't a flash in the painter.

390
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 3: Is this guy legit? Like he's got busts written all

391
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:33,560
Speaker 3: over him? Shuck, Like there's luck so much could go

392
00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 3: wrong for him after year one.

393
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Speaker 1: This is the perfect scenario for them because Shuck did

394
00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 1: well enough that they he didn't put them in a

395
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Speaker 1: position where they have to like be so high that

396
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,639
Speaker 1: they could potentially be scrambling and trying to figure out

397
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 1: who their quarterback is going to be in a weak

398
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:58,400
Speaker 1: quarterback draft class other than Mendozo, like there's questions about everybody,

399
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,760
Speaker 1: whereas if Shuck is great, they will have a full

400
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 1: year to see and they will be a team that's

401
00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 1: on the rise because they got the quarterback that they

402
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 1: needed at pretty you know it, sort of pretty low

403
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:17,600
Speaker 1: costs and if he's terrible, they will know and all

404
00:20:17,600 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 1: of a sudden they're in the arch Manning comes Home

405
00:20:21,600 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 1: race and let's see if they can get their hero

406
00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 1: to return right, So they are in a perfect position

407
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: they win either way next year.

408
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 3: I'm just shocked the books on a seven and a

409
00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 3: half on them, Like that feels very high for this team.

410
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 2: It does.

411
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 3: I just talked about like a lot of question works

412
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 3: and yeah, I'm I wanted to hammer this under, but

413
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,920
Speaker 3: I think I'm too close to my love for Shuck,

414
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 3: So it's it's a tough line for me.

415
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: Giants seven and a half. That feels like a Harbor

416
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 1: bounce right, Like, there's no other reason to be betting

417
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: on the Giants at seven and a half, if other

418
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 1: than you think they are just going to completely revamp

419
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: their culture because of what John Harbaugh is going to

420
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Speaker 1: bring to that team.

421
00:21:06,080 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 3: This is like one of my favorite underbets. And I

422
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 3: know some pros that I've been hammering this over. Dart

423
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 3: runs literally with his head down into guys like all right,

424
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:19,879
Speaker 3: hardball can coach out of them. Sure, I would not

425
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 3: be betting on it. This guy has played one style

426
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 3: his entire career, and I don't know if you've seen

427
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 3: him get interviewed, he's talked about not changing. He's like

428
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 3: that's who I am, that's the way I play. So

429
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:31,919
Speaker 3: maybe they can beat it into him. But if you

430
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 3: don't have a quarterback can stay available and can consistently

431
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,280
Speaker 3: get better dark flashes, We've seen the talent. He can't

432
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 3: stay in the field and can say be consistently you know,

433
00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 3: getting reps. This is going to be a disaster for

434
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 3: the Shine team because this is a hard division like

435
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 3: Dak Jalen Jaden Daniels, this is a really hard division.

436
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: So I was another line I think mispriced by the

437
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 3: sports books. I had this a five and a half,

438
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 3: so two wins off the books, and that that to

439
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 3: me just shows how I'm viewing dark compared to the

440
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 3: sports books. I am way lower and dark than the

441
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 3: sports books, clearly. And yeah, I could not believe this

442
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 3: one to open at seven and a half, So I

443
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,239
Speaker 3: don't give out too many favorite unders at this one year.

444
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 3: I like betting overs just because the line usually moves

445
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 3: this one. I do really like the underyear. I think

446
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 3: this one's going to drop down to six and a half.

447
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: But it's not just dark, it's camp Scattaboo and who

448
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: runs like a bulldozer. He's not going to change. He's

449
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 1: coming back from an injury.

450
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: And was taking the other way.

451
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. Like, and their defensive line Abdul Carter was was

452
00:22:37,280 --> 00:22:41,199
Speaker 1: disappointing this year. They're trying to get rid of TOI

453
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: Bideaux like, they weren't as good defensively upfront as I

454
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 1: think anyone expected them to be. They've got questions at

455
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 1: receiver now because they've got players coming back from injury,

456
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 1: their best receiver coming back from injury, so the people

457
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: are investing a lot in harbought if they are taking

458
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: the over right now because they think he's what we

459
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: built their special teams like, there's just a lot of

460
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: faith hardbough bounce there. Washington seven and a half, I'd

461
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 1: go with the over there. I'd go with the over

462
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 1: because I think they're going to get an easier schedule.

463
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,919
Speaker 1: Daniels is back for a full season, and their defense

464
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: can only get better, and they know what the issues are,

465
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 1: so I would like the over there.

466
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: I'm taking the under. I get what you're taking the over, though,

467
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 2: but to me, I think it's price right.

468
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 3: I'm just taking the under just because, once again, as

469
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 3: much as I like Daniels, I don't know if the

470
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 3: team has made their right moves to improve. And I

471
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: know they've tried to approve the offensive line. We'll see

472
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 3: if that comes to fruition. But yeah, I still have

473
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 3: a lot of questions about this. Washington just in such

474
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 3: a tough division.

475
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: All right, Before we get to the eight and a

476
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:49,400
Speaker 1: halfs and over, let's take a quick break from our

477
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,919
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515
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Speaker 1: and Virginia. All right, Simon Dallas Cowboys eight and a half.

516
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: I'll bite, I'm a sucker. I'll take the over I

517
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: saw a lot of promise. I'm excited about what d

518
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: can do the Gatri oft ibra Flus. That defense can

519
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: get better. We'll see what Rashaan Gary can do, maybe

520
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,880
Speaker 1: be a better, more effective pass rusher than what they

521
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 1: did when they got rid of Mic and didn't really

522
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,640
Speaker 1: have anything to stop it. I'm down on the Giants.

523
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: I'm not crazy down to the Commanders, but I do

524
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: think Dallas is going to be better. So I'll take

525
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: the over eight and a half on the Cowboys.

526
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. It's it's minus one thirty

527
00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 2: five right now at hard Rocks.

528
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,400
Speaker 3: That obviously shows the pros have been hitting it, and

529
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 3: you know they looked over as well with you. It's

530
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 3: the question is that defense in Dak's health? I mean

531
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 3: they waste a fully healthy Dax season. Yes, and Dak

532
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: was good man like a lot, really good. He kept

533
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 3: them in it like he really We talked about coming

534
00:26:52,160 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: the year. I couldn't gover how much I love the

535
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 3: pick and signing where he fit perfectly what Dak wants

536
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 3: to do, which is pushing the ball downfield and running

537
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 3: Crowl routes. He's really good at it, like those sideline Catches.

538
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 3: Pickens lived up to the hype and they handled that

539
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: right to me. They didn't give a long term deal.

540
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,440
Speaker 3: They signed it to a one year franchise tag deal,

541
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,359
Speaker 3: so once again he'll be on his best behaviors. Picking

542
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 3: So I like that move a lot from Jerry. Shockingly

543
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 3: smart move from Jerry there.

544
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:20,120
Speaker 2: And you know CD just like last year.

545
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,160
Speaker 3: I know he had those horrible drops in that one game,

546
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 3: but overall he's what a top five receiver, So I

547
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,920
Speaker 3: think I'm looking agreement. We don't really question the offense

548
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 3: did these offseasons and moves they'd made to attack the

549
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 3: defense is just going to fix this defense, So that's

550
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 3: that's the question the pros think it is. They're hammering

551
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 3: this over. I'll wait and see if this gets the

552
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 3: nine and a half. I'm happy to take the under

553
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 3: on minus one forty whatever that gets to rather than

554
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 3: taking this over just because once again, if if Washington

555
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 3: is a little bit better, that's gonna be really tough

556
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:54,959
Speaker 3: for them this division because the Giants, you know, as

557
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 3: much as I think they're gonna regress, if Dart's healthier

558
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 3: in the year, he could easily steal a win from

559
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 3: this Cowboys team. I mean, people forget Russell Wilson, what

560
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: do you have forty points against the Cowboys team last

561
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 3: year and Dak stole it with the Aubrey field goal

562
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 3: in the last second from sixty five yards, Like they

563
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 3: almost lost the Giants last year.

564
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 2: So I think we're in agreement with we obviously believe

565
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 2: this Cowboys team, but that that's probably on the lower

566
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 2: win toals they've had.

567
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 3: I think last year they opened an eight and a half.

568
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 3: They might have dropped the seven and a half by

569
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:28,679
Speaker 3: the start of the season. I think they landa right

570
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 3: on eight. So the books they've been pretty dolled in

571
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 3: here on this Cowboys team. So pretty interesting line movement here,

572
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 3: it's clearly going to nine.

573
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: Is Ceedee Lamb a top five receiver? I guess I

574
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: would go, yeah, it's Jamar Chase justin Jefferson, Puka Nakua.

575
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 1: I think you got to do Jackson, Jackson Smith, and

576
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: Jigba and then like is it c D? Is he fifth?

577
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: Is he? Like in no particular order, but is he

578
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 1: the other one who we missing? That could be Aman

579
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: Rush Saint Brown.

580
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 3: Like, I mean, I know everyone's different, Like you like Jimal,

581
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: you put Chase right at one.

582
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: I think CD's better than Chase.

583
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 3: So it's it's it's whatever you like, your type, it's

584
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 3: everyone's different, it's whatever you prefer.

585
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 2: I just I can't refer about.

586
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: C D versus the other guy. I don't even know

587
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: if I put Jamar Chase one, like I'm I might

588
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 1: put JSN or Puka number one. I think they both

589
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: get contested balls. Especially Puka is much better at contested

590
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 1: balls than Jamar Chase.

591
00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're different stylear receivers because like six or five

592
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 2: building a brick house. Yes, freaking awesome, they different.

593
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 3: But yeah, honestly, it comes down to me just how

594
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: I've seen Chase perform when the season's lost.

595
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 2: Now I've seen CD perform the season's lost. CD feels

596
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 2: like he never takes reps off.

597
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: I see Chase take reps off plenty of times, like

598
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 3: he is, especially in games with Teagans is going off.

599
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 3: You see him being a little bit about it where

600
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 3: Pickens is going off. You see CD running over there

601
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 3: picking them up like cdt me just has exact personality

602
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 3: one and again that's nothing against Chase, but we're splitting

603
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 3: hairs here like Chase is, Like I said, a top

604
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 3: five receiver in this league, so it's not that big

605
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 3: of a difference. I just if I had to pick

606
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 3: one for my for the Eagles, I'd prefer CD over.

607
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 1: Chase Indy eight and a half. I'm going under.

608
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, what is this number? Number?

609
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, you don't even know when Daniel Jones is going

610
00:30:30,160 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: to be playing, So are we saying that and a half?

611
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 2: Do you remember what he did? He tore his achilles, right,

612
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: he tours achilles. Yeah, that's eight and a half.

613
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: And he tore his achilles midway through the year. It's

614
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: not like he tours achilles in September. So that like,

615
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 1: we've seen great quarterbacks miss the full year for that.

616
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 3: In the division with Houston, Jacksonville and a Tennessee team

617
00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 3: who thinks gonna be better. So Chad, Chad's I think

618
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 3: we're in alignment. You're like under right, yes, as I said,

619
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 3: under yeah. So to me like this and the two unders,

620
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 3: I've been betting pretty heavily. I did not do not

621
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 3: understand this opening at all. Unfortunately, books have limited to it,

622
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 3: Like I I've had a couple of books only take

623
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: a thousand. They don't let me read bet it either,

624
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 3: like they're holding firm on it because I think they know,

625
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 3: like there's too many unknowns here and they might have

626
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 3: hung up bad line here, because yes, if Daniel Jones

627
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 3: is fully healthy coming to this year, year two of

628
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 3: running the stikeing offense, I'd love this over. Like we

629
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 3: saw how good he can be running this offense with

630
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor, and you know they're they brought back his

631
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:34,480
Speaker 3: number one receiver. But the fact that we've seen two quarterbacks.

632
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 3: I know he's much younger than them, but we saw

633
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 3: Kirk and Rogers take at least a year to come

634
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: back from the Achilles. Okay, even if Danieldones a little

635
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 3: bit younger, he uses his legs way more than both

636
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 3: those quarterbacks, way more like that was the huge thing

637
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 3: with Daniel Jones is using his legs, especially running outside

638
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: the pocket. So I cannot believe they hung a number

639
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 3: this high. I could easily see this drop in his

640
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 3: six and a half.

641
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: Seven.

642
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 3: By the season kicks off, we get worried. You know,

643
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: Jones won't be back till November. So bizarre bizarre line.

644
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: With the sports book Minnesota, we talked about pitt is

645
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: it eight and a half? Taking the under on Pittsburgh

646
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:13,920
Speaker 1: I don't know who the quarterback is going to be.

647
00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 1: I feel like they're revamping their culture. They aren't leaning

648
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 1: into players they develop. They're bringing in new guys. Their

649
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 1: defense with what and everybody else is Hayward is just

650
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: a year older, not necessarily better. They haven't figured out

651
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 1: what their defensive backfield issues are.

652
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 3: Like.

653
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 1: This feels like a respect the uniform number. I'm taking

654
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: the under.

655
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's what are we going to do for our

656
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 3: old Tomlin days?

657
00:32:48,560 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: We always try to find reasons to bet the under.

658
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 1: We don't have to worry about that anymore, I know.

659
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: And that's that's I love that they're hanging this line

660
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 2: exactly on the Tomlin line. Where isn't that weird? Yeah?

661
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: The new error? Or are you going to say the

662
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: voodoo is gone?

663
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 3: And this is a six win team now, especially with

664
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,040
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers coming back, But you know the way Pittsburgh

665
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 3: been attacking this offseason, they think they're a nine to

666
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: ten win team.

667
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 2: So you know, I'll pass on this one.

668
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:15,960
Speaker 3: I guess if I had to make a pick, I

669
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:18,160
Speaker 3: would join chat and take the under here, just because

670
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 3: I do think Tomlin's that big of a deal and

671
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: this division is that tough, but yeah, I love the

672
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 3: books hunting this right at eight and a half and

673
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 3: it's plus one twenty five to the over if you

674
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 3: do like Pittsburgh on the over.

675
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 1: The last eight and a half is Tampa Bay eight

676
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 1: and a half minus won forty to the over. So

677
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 1: money's coming in on that over there. Look, what do

678
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 1: we believe Do we believe in Baker? Do we believe

679
00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: this team can can can sort of return to what

680
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 1: it was early in the year, return to what it

681
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: was the year before, or are they going to be

682
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: a team that continues to sort of be in a

683
00:33:54,120 --> 00:34:01,240
Speaker 1: perpetual state of middling mediocrity close enough but can't quite

684
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 1: get over the hump as they also they're going over

685
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: some roster turnover. Mechabuka was not as good in the

686
00:34:07,160 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: second half of the year as he was in the

687
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,919
Speaker 1: first half of the year. What is going to happen

688
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: to their running game where they had a lot of

689
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: injuries last year with Bucky Irving, Like, there's issues there.

690
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 1: I think they're getting the benefit of the doubt at

691
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: eight and a half, but that division is soft.

692
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's the reason because they're in the right division

693
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 3: and any other if they were in your division, Chaff,

694
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 3: they're in the North.

695
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 2: They would probably be seven and a half.

696
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 3: Like they just they're getting a free game here because

697
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:36,320
Speaker 3: you assume they will be the best team in this

698
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 3: division because they still have a ton of talent.

699
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: And you know, Baker, they.

700
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,719
Speaker 3: Never he never had surgery, at least I didn't say

701
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 3: everything in the news or I didn't hear anything from

702
00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 3: my minions, but I was positive he was hurt because

703
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 3: he was a totally different quarterback the first half of

704
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 3: the season the second half, and you know the second

705
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 3: half of the season. Would they lose seventh straight or whatever?

706
00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 3: It was like that, something crazy like that. So to me,

707
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 3: they are another high variance team. I could easily send

708
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 3: them getting the ten wins. Like if Baker is healthy,

709
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 3: he's put it together. He's really good. I mean, it's

710
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: crazy to think he was top three and MVP odds

711
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 3: for totally first month and a half of last year's season.

712
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: So you know, we know they have a ton of talent,

713
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: but we saw last year, like Chad said, they fell apart,

714
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 3: and I think that is because they've lost so many

715
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 3: smart offensive minds who become head coaches, right, and there's

716
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 3: only so many times you go overcome that, and you know,

717
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: they're a really fun team and once again a really

718
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 3: fun division. And I'm not gonna say I'm hammering their

719
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 3: under here, because, like I said, I could see the

720
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 3: over being a possibility. I'm I'll simply pass this one.

721
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 3: But if I had to make a pick, I would

722
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 3: lean to his under.

723
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:47,839
Speaker 1: Simon, we got six teams that are aligned at nine

724
00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: and a half. Are you ready do it? Chicago Bears

725
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: nine and a half plus one hundred to the over

726
00:35:56,760 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 1: minus one twenty to the under. And I know that

727
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:06,439
Speaker 1: my head is telling me the under is the right

728
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 1: side here, But how do I not want to root

729
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:15,880
Speaker 1: it with every part of my being for the Bears

730
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 1: to run the table and go to the Super Bowl.

731
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, like you said, the smart bed probably is the under.

732
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,359
Speaker 3: You expect the regression. Last year they overachieved. I mean,

733
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 3: what was it the first seventy eight weeks they had

734
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 3: five wins true quin flips, like they won in the

735
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 3: last minute, two minutes, like they had the record.

736
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: How about the end of the season. Every week was

737
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: a cardiac arrest.

738
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the playoffs really amplified that. Right.

739
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,000
Speaker 3: They should have lost the Green Bay that it came back,

740
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,720
Speaker 3: had an incredible win in the Rams.

741
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: They never should have like that game never should have

742
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: been extended.

743
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 3: Right, So you know, it's the type of team that

744
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 3: it's hard to go against them and take their under

745
00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 3: because what we just talked about, they find ways to win.

746
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 3: That's all on the coach and it's also obviously on

747
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 3: the quarterback and Caleb We'll see how.

748
00:37:04,400 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: He hands was this offseason.

749
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 3: Right, last year, he was at the lowest point probably

750
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 3: in his football life. Right, he was embarrassed being torn

751
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 3: apart by the media. I feel like, if you had

752
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: another bad year last year with the Bears, they probably

753
00:37:19,040 --> 00:37:21,280
Speaker 3: would have been open to moving on from this year. Literally,

754
00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 3: that's how bad it was last year. Now he is

755
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: the golden goose, like the whole city's behind him. Everyone

756
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: believes in him. They'll see the talent and can he

757
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 3: handle that?

758
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:30,719
Speaker 2: Right?

759
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 3: Can he still be put in the work this off season,

760
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 3: because you know we haven't.

761
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 2: We haven't gotten it since yet. But Joe Burrow, I

762
00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 2: don't know if you've seen him.

763
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,320
Speaker 3: He's been out and about with a lot of beautiful

764
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,720
Speaker 3: women this offseason, which is no problem. Like this dude,

765
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 3: he's in his twenties. He's a millionaire. He's a star

766
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 3: of Cornfold quarterback these other quarterbacks like Mahomes. I've seen

767
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: him rehabbing and working. Josh Allen, I've seen multiple videos

768
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 3: of him at the the Bills facility working out, not

769
00:37:57,080 --> 00:37:58,440
Speaker 3: him out party or doing anything.

770
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: It's like that. That's my whole thing here with people.

771
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: It's like, Okay, Caleb, I've seen him go out and

772
00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 3: have fun during the off season for the first two

773
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 3: weeks I felt like the off season last year I've

774
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 3: seen with him, though, he's been in house, working out,

775
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,320
Speaker 3: being locked in. So if that holds truth of the summer,

776
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 3: I would to go over right now. I'm gonna be

777
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna handle patients with this line because I think

778
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:22,360
Speaker 3: it is price priced right by the sportsbooks.

779
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 2: I'm not Russian thick, the over or the under.

780
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 1: Well you just mentioned Cincinnati. Cincinnati is nine and a half.

781
00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: This feels so inflated to me. I don't understand it.

782
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: It's clearly it's clearly like the the your.

783
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 3: Favorite anglois sign in this off season. Chad can't say

784
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,399
Speaker 3: it exactly, No one can.

785
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 1: This is only about Joe Burrow is going to be

786
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: playing a full season, so they think, even though historically

787
00:38:56,120 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 1: he never does. So A, you're banking on a healthy

788
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow, and B you're assuming that Joe Burrow is

789
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: what everyone believes he to be he is, which is

790
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:10,319
Speaker 1: one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. I'm not

791
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: even sure you believe that anymore.

792
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 3: I still like, again, I took a lot of heat

793
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 3: last year because I had him at number six of

794
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 3: my top ten quarterbacks. I put at number five Stafford

795
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 3: over him, and like that's where visual history people like

796
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 3: I try not to overadjust the one season people were

797
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: killing me because I had Stafford above him, Like, have

798
00:39:28,280 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 3: you not seen Stafford the last couple of years. He's

799
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,280
Speaker 3: nowhere near as good as Joe burn It's like, Dude, Stafford,

800
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 3: if he's healthy consistently on the field, he is just

801
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 3: as good or if not a better quarterback than Joe Burrow.

802
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: The hype it just.

803
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 3: Reached too high because Joe Burrow won the National Championship

804
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 3: with maybe the greatest college football team either and then

805
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 3: his first full healthy.

806
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: Second best, second best college football team etter, his.

807
00:39:48,800 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 2: First healthy c NFL went to Super Bowl.

808
00:39:51,320 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: So it's like I got I understand why people love

809
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 3: him so much, but my whole job is to keep

810
00:39:56,320 --> 00:39:58,920
Speaker 3: evaluating year to year, and every year I feel like

811
00:39:58,960 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 3: he's regressed a little bit. He just is not taking

812
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 3: the next step, and that's because the team's failing him.

813
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 2: Right.

814
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: Those shots, those hits have added up to him and

815
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 3: he's not gotten better. Like I talked, though, Joe Flacco

816
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 3: came in, he took that line from being I know

817
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 3: this sounds crazy, and you could say, well, the offense

818
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:14,799
Speaker 3: line got better as well.

819
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 2: I agree.

820
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 3: They went from the thirty first rinked offensive line when

821
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 3: Joe Brow went down to the fifteenth offensive line when

822
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 3: he came back, and you could say, well they got

823
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 3: better thout the season. No, Flacco didn't horn on the

824
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 3: ball so long. He's the reason their stats and look

825
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 3: as terrible. He helped fix that offensive line. I know

826
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 3: it's crazy that it sounds, but I do put a

827
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,040
Speaker 3: lot of the sacks and these hits onto Joe Burrow.

828
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 3: So bad bad win toal. Like you just said, that's

829
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:43,840
Speaker 3: a that's priced so inflated by just past Yeah, yeah,

830
00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 3: So I hate to say this division.

831
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 2: Honestly, I would.

832
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 3: I could see myself taking the under in every team

833
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 3: and just one team hits big, like, I could see

834
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 3: the Ravens hitting big right getting it to over thirteen wins,

835
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: or Pittsburgh somehow Rodgers getting the ten thirteen wins, or

836
00:40:57,480 --> 00:40:59,040
Speaker 3: some of the Bengals do figure it out get the

837
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,919
Speaker 3: ten or thirteen wins. But these all these teams feel

838
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 3: like you could easily see them all go under like.

839
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 3: It just feels like it could be a totally lost,

840
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 3: lost division here in the NFC North. So yeah, over

841
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 3: under nine and a half feels way too high for

842
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 3: the Bengals.

843
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: Denver nine and a half, I'll take the over. We

844
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 1: don't know what's going to be happening with Kansas City yet,

845
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,920
Speaker 1: and when Patrick Mahomes is going to come back. The

846
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 1: Chargers are, you know, could be fifteen and two, they

847
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: could be nine and eight, right, You just you never

848
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:36,399
Speaker 1: know with that team. I like what their defense is.

849
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 1: They just added Jalen Waddell. We know Bonnicks will be back.

850
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: I think that Sean Payton is good enough coach that

851
00:41:43,320 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 1: a ten and seventeen with this talent is not at

852
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,560
Speaker 1: all inconceivable to me. I'd rather be betting the over

853
00:41:50,640 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 1: on this team than the under.

854
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, And just like the Bills.

855
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 3: This is one of my bigger, bigger bets I've made

856
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: before this offseason taken they're over. I oh nice, over

857
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,319
Speaker 3: And I do think you're being priced here at nine

858
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 3: and a half because you know, first place schedule obviously,

859
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,839
Speaker 3: and this the division is so tough, right. We think

860
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 3: Raiders are gonna be a little bit better. We expect

861
00:42:11,040 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 3: the Chargers to be healthier and better. And the you know,

862
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 3: the questions we have right now for the Chargers is

863
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 3: Minter like he left, what is that defense going to be?

864
00:42:17,680 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 2: Like yep for the Chargers.

865
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 3: And when I look at this Denver team, it really

866
00:42:23,480 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 3: does come down to the old line and D line.

867
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 3: Like I just think they're so good on the old

868
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 3: line the D line, And then you factor in the

869
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: fact that all this Bonix deal, they've been out, they've

870
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 3: gone out and they've spent money, they've attacked these other positions.

871
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 3: Right they're trying to build out the defense, they're trying

872
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,279
Speaker 3: to build out this offense. And you know Sutton now

873
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 3: on one side of Wattle on the other side, I

874
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: love that move like they are another team. They were

875
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 3: trying to get a j and that would have been

876
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:50,080
Speaker 3: a huge upgrade for them. Waddle obviously is not AJ

877
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:51,879
Speaker 3: but he's he's got a ton of talent, a ton

878
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 3: of speed.

879
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 2: We'll see how he does for this offense.

880
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think the only real question now right

881
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 3: now for Denver is can they get a run like that?

882
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:02,439
Speaker 2: To me is the weakness of this team. They need

883
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: a running back and they've been trying.

884
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 3: I mean everything I've read from all the reports, they've

885
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 3: been trying really hard to get a running back and

886
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 3: you know, they've been out bid by Kansas City and

887
00:43:10,480 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 3: different things just have not worked out for their favor

888
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 3: trying to get a running back in there. So yeah,

889
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: that went totally strictly to me based on their division

890
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 3: and the first place schedule like that, The books are

891
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 3: just saying, Okay, if bon Nix comes back healthy and

892
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,799
Speaker 3: he is what he was last year, they'll easily get

893
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 3: a ten or eleven wins, especially if Champagne as head coach.

894
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: If he takes a little bit of regression, the book

895
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 3: is out on him. If these teams start really knowing

896
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 3: to attack bone knicks and this Champagne offense that he's running,

897
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 3: yeah they could easily go under this.

898
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 2: Right.

899
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 3: There's just there's a lot of unknowns right now how

900
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,560
Speaker 3: they're going to be in year three with bone Knicks.

901
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm very very convinced every team. I think

902
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,560
Speaker 3: they're another team to get to eleven twelve wins. Like

903
00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 3: I just think they're going to be really competitive of

904
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: these next two three years because they've drafted so well

905
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:57,799
Speaker 3: in the interior that bon next contract, it's just so

906
00:43:58,000 --> 00:43:59,920
Speaker 3: cheap they can felt the rest of the team with that.

907
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 1: I love when you and I agree. Let's see if

908
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 1: we's with these last three teams, we're in agreement Houston

909
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 1: before we go over them. Just give me a yes

910
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:19,600
Speaker 1: or no. Houston nine and a half over No, Jacksonville

911
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:25,200
Speaker 1: nine and a half under, No, New England nine and

912
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 1: a half under no, Okay for three. So that makes

913
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:35,839
Speaker 1: me sad. Before I was like super high because we

914
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 1: were nailing it on the Broncos and we were in

915
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 1: agreement on the Bengals. I guess my take is this,

916
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: I believe more in the Texans defense than in the

917
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 1: Jags defense. I think that is something that you know

918
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:59,799
Speaker 1: will will improve over the next year. And I have

919
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 1: to believe that CJ will be better over the next year,

920
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: even though they haven't done tremendous work to improve their

921
00:45:06,080 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 1: offensive line. Yet he's got to be better. He's going

922
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 1: into a contract year. This will be the time he

923
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 1: proves that he is going to be worth the fifty

924
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 1: to sixty million that they are going to have to

925
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 1: pay him. That's a foregone conclusion. Jacksonville. I'm just I

926
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 1: feel like we saw them improve week to week last year,

927
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 1: But how much of that was schedule, how much of

928
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: that was luck? How much of that was circumstances of

929
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: who they were playing when they were playing them and

930
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 1: the injuries that the other teams had and New England.

931
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,759
Speaker 1: I'm just seeing a team that is playing a first

932
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:49,800
Speaker 1: place schedule and benefited from a really easy schedule the

933
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:50,320
Speaker 1: year before.

934
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, ol Fay like the Texas, I totally agree, Like

935
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 3: their defense used to get them to ten wins in

936
00:45:58,120 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 3: that division. Yeah, for me, I'm just taking the under

937
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,360
Speaker 3: because we're guess sire right now, just because it just

938
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 3: feels like, you know, it feels like a very high

939
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 3: wind total like nine to eight feels more likely than

940
00:46:10,080 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 3: them getting a ten wins honestly with this team, and

941
00:46:12,880 --> 00:46:14,880
Speaker 3: you know, the factor for me is going to be

942
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: those Colts games, right if it is no Daniel Jones.

943
00:46:18,080 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 3: And Houston does get them twice in September and the October.

944
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 3: That's a big deal, right, That's two free wins against

945
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 3: a SUBPARB team that Jacksonville will not be lucky?

946
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:28,799
Speaker 2: Is that so? Yeah?

947
00:46:28,800 --> 00:46:31,279
Speaker 3: This is another one in my rushing at bet. Did

948
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 3: Jacksonville fully agree with your statement? First place schedule? I

949
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:39,120
Speaker 3: just I can't get over how good they're head coaches,

950
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 3: like the offense he ran? How much better Trevor Lawrence

951
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:43,520
Speaker 3: Scrott thought the season. Man, when we joke Linco and

952
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,799
Speaker 3: he hated Trevor, he would go berserk on him on

953
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: the sideline, being like, this guy is a full and idiot.

954
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 3: But Trevor's not an idiot, right, He is smart football

955
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: wise and he did improve his season on along.

956
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,520
Speaker 2: And that's just the type of.

957
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:58,280
Speaker 3: Team that like, Okay, if I believe in the coach,

958
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 3: if I believe in the quarterback, it's hard for me

959
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,759
Speaker 3: to take their unders, especially in such a.

960
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: Bad division New England.

961
00:47:05,719 --> 00:47:08,760
Speaker 3: I was on the under honestly coming to this offseason,

962
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,359
Speaker 3: it's like, oh my god, they're gonna get smoked. Their

963
00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 3: schedule next year is absolutely brutal. The Miami Jets factor though,

964
00:47:15,280 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 3: is a big deal. Like, if that's for free wins,

965
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 3: I mean, Rabel, he can get us five and a

966
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:22,800
Speaker 3: half more wins.

967
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 2: Canny And as bad.

968
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,239
Speaker 3: As their offense is to me, like, I don't think

969
00:47:27,239 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: they made enough approvements to the offense, their defense might

970
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 3: be really good next year. Again, like Rabel clearly went

971
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,959
Speaker 3: to the front front office and said, Okay, we can't

972
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 3: make a big splash at the wide receiver position to

973
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 3: get get a guy, you know, to take Drake to

974
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:43,960
Speaker 3: another level. Let me attack the defense. Let's keep adding

975
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 3: to the defense. And they've done that like this offseason.

976
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 3: So you know, another team where I have not made

977
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 3: a bet on it yet, I really wanted to be

978
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 3: on the under. Now I'm leaving more to the over

979
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 3: because it's just man, that division is going to be

980
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 3: so bad.

981
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,600
Speaker 2: It's just them and the Bills truly is.

982
00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:01,240
Speaker 3: And we've now seen a hard Rock move to minus

983
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 3: one twenty five to the over nine and a half.

984
00:48:03,120 --> 00:48:05,400
Speaker 3: So I think we both can be patient chat and

985
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 3: maybe we'll get to ten and a half and we

986
00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 3: both together can tack the under here that to me,

987
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:11,439
Speaker 3: ten and a half, that's an automatic bet on the under.

988
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,320
Speaker 3: Here that they feel right at nine to ten wins,

989
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 3: so once at ten and a half, that would become

990
00:48:16,280 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 3: one of my bigger bets sticking they're under all right.

991
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 1: So here's where I summarize and feel like I we

992
00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:29,800
Speaker 1: found some agreement. Cults under for sure, Giants under for sure,

993
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: the Bills over for sure, the Denver over for sure,

994
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati under for sure. Anyone I'm missing?

995
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 2: No, like it now?

996
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: Nailed it right? Yeah, I think we found mostly agreement.

997
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,279
Speaker 1: That makes me happy. All right. That's our show coming

998
00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: up next week. We're going to talk Major League Baseball

999
00:48:59,200 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 1: opening Day. I don't know you guys, Simon. I'm freaking

1000
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: loving the World Baseball Classic. I think it's amazing. There'll

1001
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 1: be more March Madness to discuss too. This has been

1002
00:49:08,760 --> 00:49:12,320
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. Watcher Listen

1003
00:49:12,640 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: on YouTube a Sharper Square like this video. Subscribe to

1004
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,160
Speaker 1: the channel. Also downloadus some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you

1005
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,440
Speaker 1: get your pods, rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars, say

1006
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

1007
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 2: I love you.

1008
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 1: Hello. You play to win the game, you don't play

1009
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:35,919
Speaker 1: to just play it