WEBVTT - The True Origins of the Virus 0:00:03.720 --> 0:00:08.920 Welcome the prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day sixty nine 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:13.560 since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 0:00:14.240 --> 0:00:18.040 Scientists have determined that the virus first showed up in 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:22.400 bats in southern China, but just how it jumped from 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:27.760 bats to humans isn't yet clear. That uncertainty has allowed 0:00:27.840 --> 0:00:32.040 conspiracy theories to bubble up, some of them promoted at 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:41.080 the highest levels of government. But first, here's what happened today. 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.680 US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw altogether from the 0:00:53.720 --> 0:00:57.280 World Health Organization. If he made good on the threat, 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:01.200 it would leave Chinese leader Jijang Ing as leader of 0:01:01.200 --> 0:01:05.839 the global fight against the pandemic. Trump posted a four 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:09.560 page letter detailing his grievances with the WHO to Twitter 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:13.160 late last night. In the letter, he called on the 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:18.240 group to demonstrate independence from China. He gave no other 0:01:18.400 --> 0:01:21.960 details about the reforms he was seeking or what specific 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:27.720 changes might unlock funding. Researchers from the Korean Centers for 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:31.800 Disease Control and Prevention are finding evidence that even though 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:35.680 some patients have tested positive for the coronavirus after recovering, 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:41.480 those people aren't capable of transmitting the infection. That's a 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:44.520 positive sign for regions looking to open up as more 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.960 patients recover. It suggests those who have recovered from COVID 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:56.000 nineteen present no risk of spreading the coronavirus. Finally, the 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:59.200 US and Canada will keep their borders shut to non 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:04.720 essential travel for another month. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:08.000 and President Donald Trump announced the extension of the border 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:12.360 closure to June one at separate events in Ottawa and Washington. 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.680 The agreement to restrict travel between the two countries, which 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:20.200 has been in place since March, was due to expire 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:32.960 this week and now our main story. The Internet has 0:02:33.000 --> 0:02:36.680 been teeming with theories, some of them pretty wild, about 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:41.280 the origin of the coronavirus. Scientists have been saying for 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.919 more than three months now that the coronavirus most likely 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:48.040 originated in a species of bat found in the south 0:02:48.080 --> 0:02:53.519 of China and managed to somehow jump into people, but 0:02:53.639 --> 0:02:58.120 alternative explanations have been floated. U S Secretary of State 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:02.680 Mike Pompeo has repeatedly blamed China, and specifically a laboratory 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:08.200 in Wuhan that was researching dangerous viruses. Bloomberg Senior editor 0:03:08.280 --> 0:03:12.040 Jason Gale talked to a World Health Organization scientist to 0:03:12.160 --> 0:03:16.040 tease out the most plausible explanation for where the virus 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:23.239 came from. How and where the SAS CoV two virus 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:28.360 emerged isn't known. Scientists have a rough idea, but pinpointing 0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:30.840 the exact way the virus came to spread in humans 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:35.440 is crucial for preventing it from happening again. Dr Peter 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.000 ben Embrick is a scientist with a w h O 0:03:38.080 --> 0:03:41.920 in Geneva who has investigated the source of numerous outbreaks, 0:03:42.240 --> 0:03:45.800 including bird flu and the coronavirus that causes Middle Eastern 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:50.760 respiratory syndrome. I asked Peter what proof exists to demonstrate 0:03:50.800 --> 0:03:54.640 the genesis of the virus that causes COVID nineteen. We 0:03:54.960 --> 0:03:58.520 know that it's closely related to a group of other 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:04.200 coronaviruses that have their origin in bad population, so that's 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.240 why we're talking about this bad link or bad origin. 0:04:07.920 --> 0:04:13.920 What we know is that in previous similar events, these 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:19.400 bats coronaviruses before they jumped to humans, first adapt in 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:24.760 another animal species that is more closely related to humans 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:29.440 and with whom humans have more regular contacts, which is 0:04:29.440 --> 0:04:33.800 allowing that time and space that is needed for the 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:37.280 varrus to adapt to two humans. So we have some 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:41.400 kind of missing link in that story between the original bats, 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:45.400 origin of the virus, and when it started to circulate 0:04:45.400 --> 0:04:51.440 in humans. Many of the first cases and Workhan were 0:04:51.480 --> 0:04:54.440 linked to a massive seafood and fresh producce market in 0:04:54.440 --> 0:04:58.159 the city. It's like a farmer's market. In Asia, they're 0:04:58.160 --> 0:05:02.599 called wet markets. This particular market sold a variety of animals, 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:06.160 including some wild ones that shoppers could buy live and 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:10.120 have prepared ready for cooking. When STARS, or severe acute 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:13.719 respiratory syndrome emerged almost twenty years ago, it's thought to 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.400 have originated in bats and jumped into civets, a small, lean, 0:05:17.800 --> 0:05:22.040 mostly nocturnal mammal, fore crossing the species barrier a second 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:26.960 time and infecting humans. Wet markets in southern China were 0:05:26.960 --> 0:05:30.640 implicated in the emergence of STARS, so it was reasoned 0:05:30.680 --> 0:05:35.840 the Wuhan market is where SARS Cove two might have begun. Now, 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:40.160 the evidence suggests that COVID cases occurred before there was 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:43.360 a definite link to the market. The market might just 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:46.000 have been a place where the virus was amplified and 0:05:46.200 --> 0:05:50.279 spread readily amongst storeholders and shoppers and the people with 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:54.479 whom they lived. With the market theory and doubt. Alternative 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:59.440 explanations have circulated. One is that the coronavirus was created 0:05:59.440 --> 0:06:02.160 in a wa lab where it was either deployed as 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:06.760 a bioweapon or accidentally escaped into the community. One of 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.680 the reasons that theory has gained traction is that the 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.000 Wuhan Institute of Virology has a so called bs L 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:17.240 for or maximum bio Containment facility, where it studies some 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:23.960 of the planet's most dangerous pathogens, including coronaviruses. The laboratory 0:06:24.120 --> 0:06:28.880 in in one is is well known for its research 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:34.360 on these viruses, on bat viruses, coronaviruses, original anything that 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:37.479 they have done, so they are they are famous in 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.640 a way for that work and for improving our understanding 0:06:40.800 --> 0:06:44.360 of coronaviruses and the relations with bat and the evolution 0:06:44.800 --> 0:06:51.600 over time. Peter and I spoke over Zoom on May seven. 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:55.880 I wanted him to explain the alleged circumstantial evidence linking 0:06:56.000 --> 0:07:03.960 the lab with the outbreak. What evidence is there that 0:07:04.000 --> 0:07:08.440 the virus might be synthetic, might be man made, What 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:17.120 evidence exists for that none to give you a clear answer. 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.680 I haven't seen a single piece of evidence that would 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:27.480 indicate a hint towards a man made, constructed virus, he says. 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:31.640 Scientists have studied the genetic sequences of the coronavirus in detail. 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.200 All agree that the virus is natural and has not 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:37.920 been hooked up in a lab. And the reason for 0:07:38.080 --> 0:07:41.720 why they are so clear in their conclusions is that 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:45.560 if it was a constructed virus, we would recognize or 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:49.000 see the bits and pieces that were used to construct 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:53.200 this virus. It's a little bit like constructing a car 0:07:53.280 --> 0:07:56.960 with legal legal bricks. You would recognize the different bricks 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:06.160 at the end. Another reason is that the protein the 0:08:06.240 --> 0:08:09.280 virus uses to enter ourselves and cause an infection in 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:12.760 our lungs is unique. It's different from the one that 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.200 the SaaS virus used back in two thousand and three 0:08:15.680 --> 0:08:22.559 and hadn't been previously described. If we talk about science fiction, 0:08:23.240 --> 0:08:27.400 everything is possible. And if somebody had constructed this virus 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:31.200 and had been able to avoid all these counter arguments, 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:33.880 I just put forward that would have been a genius 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:37.439 in somebody like he as ahead of everybody else in 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:42.880 this field. So again no strong arguments at all for 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.800 the man made versions. Scientists are able to look at 0:08:46.840 --> 0:08:50.320 the mutations that occur each time the virus replicates to 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.400 gauge the period and which it began circulating in humans. 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:57.720 Peter says around October November is when it started to adapt, 0:08:57.720 --> 0:09:00.719 and in fact, people tracing the IRUs back to its 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:05.080 roots means finding the earliest cases and determining where and 0:09:05.160 --> 0:09:08.480 how they might have been infected. Right now, there's nothing 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:11.360 to determine how the virus go from bats into people 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:15.520 and if another mammal acted as an intermediate host and 0:09:15.679 --> 0:09:19.000 what that animal might have been, But some intriguing signs 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:25.280 are emerging from cats. So far, we've studied several animal 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.520 species to see how susceptible they are to this virus 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:31.439 and whether they could be playing a role in the 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:35.520 in the events, and cats and feelines seems to be 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:39.160 specious that is most susceptible to the virus and so 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:41.280 they can get sick, but they can also transmit the 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:44.600 disease to other other cats. And then the big question 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:48.160 is can an infected cats also transmitted to humans and 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.680 could they have been playing a role at the start 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:53.800 of this of this event that remains to be seen, 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:57.679 but it's it's a it's a possibility that is being explored. 0:09:57.960 --> 0:10:03.280 But it's also show importance of protecting our pits and 0:10:03.360 --> 0:10:07.040 protecting animals in the same way that we protect humans. 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.520 When we have a confirmed case of COVID, that that 0:10:10.559 --> 0:10:15.600 person should be isolated and family members and colleagues and 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:20.400 also pits or animals in connection in close contact with 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:25.959 this person should also be protected so we avoid creating 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:31.960 another reservoir for this virus in different animal population. The 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:35.360 pandemic has identified some gaps in our understanding of the 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:39.240 pathogens lurking in nature. That's especially the case that the 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:43.560 human animal interface, where viruses risk crossing the species barrier 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:47.200 and spreading among people. Peter says we can fill some 0:10:47.280 --> 0:10:51.559 of those gaps through better surveillance and traceability of farmed animals. 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:54.880 He also says that regardless of whether the web market 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.640 and Wuhan was where the first person was infected, we 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:01.720 need to improve these kinds of food markets around the world. 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:06.439 We have a lot of markets where people have tradition 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:10.640 to purchasing live animals that are then slaughtered on the 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:16.000 spot or nearby, and these practices, unfortunately often done with 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:20.600 in poor hygienic conditions and with unnecessarily close contact between 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:24.920 the public and the sellers and the animals. So that's 0:11:25.160 --> 0:11:29.120 and where animal species are mixed together and kept in 0:11:29.200 --> 0:11:32.920 pages for a long time, and all that gives, of course, 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:37.839 these viruses much better chances to adapt and to jump 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:41.120 and to infect humans. And if if hygiene and safety, 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:45.480 addressibility and surveillance and so on, we're in place um 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:49.480 and and well in forth. So it's important to keep 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:53.360 to keep these markets, but it's equally important to improve 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:59.400 them and and make them safe and hygiene. If the 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.800 current cry has taught us anything it's that as human 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:07.400 populations expand and encroach on wildlife habitats, the risk from 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:12.880 dangerous animal viruses continues to grow. And in an interconnected world, 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:17.480 epidemics that were previously localized can race around the globe 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:22.640 with blinding speed. It means everyone everywhere has a stake 0:12:22.640 --> 0:12:37.200 in doing whatever we can to mitigate this threat. That 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.880 was Jason Gale in Melbourne, and that's our show today. 0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:45.000 For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:50.200 visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.120 the show. Please leave us a review and a reading 0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:57.040 on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 0:12:57.040 --> 0:13:02.160 help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:07.040 Edition is produced by Tophah foreheads Jordan Gaspoure, Magnus Hendrickson, 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:11.600 and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:16.800 Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 0:13:16.800 --> 0:13:22.040 Francesca Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.160 of podcasts. Thanks for listening.