1 00:00:03,720 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: Welcome the prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day sixty nine 2 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Our main story. 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:18,040 Speaker 1: Scientists have determined that the virus first showed up in 4 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: bats in southern China, but just how it jumped from 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: bats to humans isn't yet clear. That uncertainty has allowed 6 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: conspiracy theories to bubble up, some of them promoted at 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: the highest levels of government. But first, here's what happened today. 8 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw altogether from the 9 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: World Health Organization. If he made good on the threat, 10 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: it would leave Chinese leader Jijang Ing as leader of 11 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: the global fight against the pandemic. Trump posted a four 12 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: page letter detailing his grievances with the WHO to Twitter 13 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: late last night. In the letter, he called on the 14 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: group to demonstrate independence from China. He gave no other 15 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,960 Speaker 1: details about the reforms he was seeking or what specific 16 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 1: changes might unlock funding. Researchers from the Korean Centers for 17 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 1: Disease Control and Prevention are finding evidence that even though 18 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,680 Speaker 1: some patients have tested positive for the coronavirus after recovering, 19 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 1: those people aren't capable of transmitting the infection. That's a 20 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 1: positive sign for regions looking to open up as more 21 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: patients recover. It suggests those who have recovered from COVID 22 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: nineteen present no risk of spreading the coronavirus. Finally, the 23 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: US and Canada will keep their borders shut to non 24 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:04,720 Speaker 1: essential travel for another month. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau 25 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: and President Donald Trump announced the extension of the border 26 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:12,360 Speaker 1: closure to June one at separate events in Ottawa and Washington. 27 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: The agreement to restrict travel between the two countries, which 28 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: has been in place since March, was due to expire 29 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:32,960 Speaker 1: this week and now our main story. The Internet has 30 00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: been teeming with theories, some of them pretty wild, about 31 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: the origin of the coronavirus. Scientists have been saying for 32 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: more than three months now that the coronavirus most likely 33 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: originated in a species of bat found in the south 34 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:53,519 Speaker 1: of China and managed to somehow jump into people, but 35 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: alternative explanations have been floated. U S Secretary of State 36 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo has repeatedly blamed China, and specifically a laboratory 37 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 1: in Wuhan that was researching dangerous viruses. Bloomberg Senior editor 38 00:03:08,280 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: Jason Gale talked to a World Health Organization scientist to 39 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 1: tease out the most plausible explanation for where the virus 40 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 1: came from. How and where the SAS CoV two virus 41 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:28,360 Speaker 1: emerged isn't known. Scientists have a rough idea, but pinpointing 42 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: the exact way the virus came to spread in humans 43 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: is crucial for preventing it from happening again. Dr Peter 44 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,000 Speaker 1: ben Embrick is a scientist with a w h O 45 00:03:38,080 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: in Geneva who has investigated the source of numerous outbreaks, 46 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: including bird flu and the coronavirus that causes Middle Eastern 47 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 1: respiratory syndrome. I asked Peter what proof exists to demonstrate 48 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: the genesis of the virus that causes COVID nineteen. We 49 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: know that it's closely related to a group of other 50 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: coronaviruses that have their origin in bad population, so that's 51 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 1: why we're talking about this bad link or bad origin. 52 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:13,920 Speaker 1: What we know is that in previous similar events, these 53 00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: bats coronaviruses before they jumped to humans, first adapt in 54 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 1: another animal species that is more closely related to humans 55 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: and with whom humans have more regular contacts, which is 56 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: allowing that time and space that is needed for the 57 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 1: varrus to adapt to two humans. So we have some 58 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: kind of missing link in that story between the original bats, 59 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: origin of the virus, and when it started to circulate 60 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: in humans. Many of the first cases and Workhan were 61 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: linked to a massive seafood and fresh producce market in 62 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: the city. It's like a farmer's market. In Asia, they're 63 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 1: called wet markets. This particular market sold a variety of animals, 64 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:06,160 Speaker 1: including some wild ones that shoppers could buy live and 65 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: have prepared ready for cooking. When STARS, or severe acute 66 00:05:10,120 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: respiratory syndrome emerged almost twenty years ago, it's thought to 67 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: have originated in bats and jumped into civets, a small, lean, 68 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: mostly nocturnal mammal, fore crossing the species barrier a second 69 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:26,960 Speaker 1: time and infecting humans. Wet markets in southern China were 70 00:05:26,960 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 1: implicated in the emergence of STARS, so it was reasoned 71 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:35,840 Speaker 1: the Wuhan market is where SARS Cove two might have begun. Now, 72 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:40,160 Speaker 1: the evidence suggests that COVID cases occurred before there was 73 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,360 Speaker 1: a definite link to the market. The market might just 74 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: have been a place where the virus was amplified and 75 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 1: spread readily amongst storeholders and shoppers and the people with 76 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 1: whom they lived. With the market theory and doubt. Alternative 77 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: explanations have circulated. One is that the coronavirus was created 78 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 1: in a wa lab where it was either deployed as 79 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: a bioweapon or accidentally escaped into the community. One of 80 00:06:06,800 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: the reasons that theory has gained traction is that the 81 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 1: Wuhan Institute of Virology has a so called bs L 82 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:17,240 Speaker 1: for or maximum bio Containment facility, where it studies some 83 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: of the planet's most dangerous pathogens, including coronaviruses. The laboratory 84 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 1: in in one is is well known for its research 85 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: on these viruses, on bat viruses, coronaviruses, original anything that 86 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 1: they have done, so they are they are famous in 87 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: a way for that work and for improving our understanding 88 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 1: of coronaviruses and the relations with bat and the evolution 89 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: over time. Peter and I spoke over Zoom on May seven. 90 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 1: I wanted him to explain the alleged circumstantial evidence linking 91 00:06:56,000 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: the lab with the outbreak. What evidence is there that 92 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: the virus might be synthetic, might be man made, What 93 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 1: evidence exists for that none to give you a clear answer. 94 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,680 Speaker 1: I haven't seen a single piece of evidence that would 95 00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 1: indicate a hint towards a man made, constructed virus, he says. 96 00:07:27,520 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: Scientists have studied the genetic sequences of the coronavirus in detail. 97 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: All agree that the virus is natural and has not 98 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: been hooked up in a lab. And the reason for 99 00:07:38,080 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: why they are so clear in their conclusions is that 100 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: if it was a constructed virus, we would recognize or 101 00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,000 Speaker 1: see the bits and pieces that were used to construct 102 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 1: this virus. It's a little bit like constructing a car 103 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 1: with legal legal bricks. You would recognize the different bricks 104 00:07:57,320 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: at the end. Another reason is that the protein the 105 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: virus uses to enter ourselves and cause an infection in 106 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: our lungs is unique. It's different from the one that 107 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: the SaaS virus used back in two thousand and three 108 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:22,559 Speaker 1: and hadn't been previously described. If we talk about science fiction, 109 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: everything is possible. And if somebody had constructed this virus 110 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: and had been able to avoid all these counter arguments, 111 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 1: I just put forward that would have been a genius 112 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,439 Speaker 1: in somebody like he as ahead of everybody else in 113 00:08:38,200 --> 00:08:42,880 Speaker 1: this field. So again no strong arguments at all for 114 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 1: the man made versions. Scientists are able to look at 115 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 1: the mutations that occur each time the virus replicates to 116 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: gauge the period and which it began circulating in humans. 117 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 1: Peter says around October November is when it started to adapt, 118 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 1: and in fact, people tracing the IRUs back to its 119 00:09:00,800 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 1: roots means finding the earliest cases and determining where and 120 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: how they might have been infected. Right now, there's nothing 121 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: to determine how the virus go from bats into people 122 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: and if another mammal acted as an intermediate host and 123 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: what that animal might have been, But some intriguing signs 124 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: are emerging from cats. So far, we've studied several animal 125 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: species to see how susceptible they are to this virus 126 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,439 Speaker 1: and whether they could be playing a role in the 127 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: in the events, and cats and feelines seems to be 128 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: specious that is most susceptible to the virus and so 129 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: they can get sick, but they can also transmit the 130 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 1: disease to other other cats. And then the big question 131 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 1: is can an infected cats also transmitted to humans and 132 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,680 Speaker 1: could they have been playing a role at the start 133 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,800 Speaker 1: of this of this event that remains to be seen, 134 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,679 Speaker 1: but it's it's a it's a possibility that is being explored. 135 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: But it's also show importance of protecting our pits and 136 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: protecting animals in the same way that we protect humans. 137 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 1: When we have a confirmed case of COVID, that that 138 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: person should be isolated and family members and colleagues and 139 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: also pits or animals in connection in close contact with 140 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 1: this person should also be protected so we avoid creating 141 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:31,960 Speaker 1: another reservoir for this virus in different animal population. The 142 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: pandemic has identified some gaps in our understanding of the 143 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: pathogens lurking in nature. That's especially the case that the 144 00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: human animal interface, where viruses risk crossing the species barrier 145 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 1: and spreading among people. Peter says we can fill some 146 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: of those gaps through better surveillance and traceability of farmed animals. 147 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,880 Speaker 1: He also says that regardless of whether the web market 148 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 1: and Wuhan was where the first person was infected, we 149 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:01,720 Speaker 1: need to improve these kinds of food markets around the world. 150 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 1: We have a lot of markets where people have tradition 151 00:11:06,520 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 1: to purchasing live animals that are then slaughtered on the 152 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 1: spot or nearby, and these practices, unfortunately often done with 153 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: in poor hygienic conditions and with unnecessarily close contact between 154 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: the public and the sellers and the animals. So that's 155 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: and where animal species are mixed together and kept in 156 00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 1: pages for a long time, and all that gives, of course, 157 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:37,839 Speaker 1: these viruses much better chances to adapt and to jump 158 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: and to infect humans. And if if hygiene and safety, 159 00:11:41,160 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: addressibility and surveillance and so on, we're in place um 160 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: and and well in forth. So it's important to keep 161 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:53,360 Speaker 1: to keep these markets, but it's equally important to improve 162 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: them and and make them safe and hygiene. If the 163 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: current cry has taught us anything it's that as human 164 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: populations expand and encroach on wildlife habitats, the risk from 165 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: dangerous animal viruses continues to grow. And in an interconnected world, 166 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: epidemics that were previously localized can race around the globe 167 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: with blinding speed. It means everyone everywhere has a stake 168 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: in doing whatever we can to mitigate this threat. That 169 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: was Jason Gale in Melbourne, and that's our show today. 170 00:12:41,520 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: For coverage of the outbreak from one bureaus around the world, 171 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:50,200 Speaker 1: visit Bloomberg dot com slash coronavirus and if you like 172 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 1: the show. Please leave us a review and a reading 173 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to 174 00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: help more listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily 175 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: Edition is produced by Tophah foreheads Jordan Gaspoure, Magnus Hendrickson, 176 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 1: and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 177 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: Jason Gale. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 178 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: Francesca Levi and Rick Shine. Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head 179 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,160 Speaker 1: of podcasts. Thanks for listening.