WEBVTT - July Jobs Report Beats Expectations 0:00:01.880 --> 0:00:04.480 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.360 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanebeck. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:09.879 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.200 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.200 --> 0:00:19.680 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:23.279 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:27.920 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:34.880 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Again, another bang up jobs 0:00:34.960 --> 0:00:37.760 number today, some good news for folks that really take 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:39.960 a look at the jobs as a driver this economy. 0:00:40.000 --> 0:00:42.840 And earlier today, speaking from the White House, President Biden 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:47.120 said July's jobs report shows that his economic policies are working. 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:50.960 Let's take a listen. What is indisputable now is this 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:55.320 The Biden plan is working. The Biden Plan produces results, 0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.000 and the Biden Plan is moving the country forward. Right now. 0:00:58.040 --> 0:01:01.600 The first administration is history to jobs every single month 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:04.480 in our first six months in office. Alright, That was 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:06.560 President Biden that I would say, taking a little bit 0:01:06.560 --> 0:01:09.160 of a victory lap there on the strong data coming 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.959 out of the labor market. Let's bring in Lindsay Pigs, 0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:15.160 chief economists for Steple Financial. She joins us on the 0:01:15.160 --> 0:01:18.120 phone from Wisconsin. So, Lindsay, you know, on the surface, 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:21.280 it seemed like a really really solid number. It's not 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:24.760 that million dollars, that million job number that people were 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.160 hoping for at some point here, but still very strong. 0:01:27.200 --> 0:01:30.720 What's your takeaway, Well, it certainly was very strong. And 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:34.440 to your point, if we actually add in the revision 0:01:34.720 --> 0:01:39.040 from June and May, the overall change was actually well 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:41.920 over a million new jobs added to the U. S economy. 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:45.240 So I think this was a very strong report all around. 0:01:45.840 --> 0:01:49.680 Really hard to find weakness in that type of jobs number. 0:01:50.280 --> 0:01:54.000 But but, but, and this is what Michael McKee talked 0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.600 to us a little bit about Dave Wilson earlier. It 0:01:56.680 --> 0:02:00.160 covers the first two weeks of the month, that's the 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:04.360 survey data comes in. So that wasn't when we were 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.040 talking about the delta variant. That wasn't when companies were 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:10.639 saying do not return to the office in September. How 0:02:10.680 --> 0:02:13.160 does that affect the way that hiring is going to 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:16.800 go uh in this period. Well, there is some fear 0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:19.440 that that the impact on the delta variant is going 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:22.440 to have an impact going forward, but at least for now, 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.600 businesses don't appear to be deterred from continuing to add 0:02:26.639 --> 0:02:30.560 employees as we as we continue to attempt to reach 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:34.400 this this new normal. Now, to your point, we have 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:37.440 seen the fear of the delta variant to lay some 0:02:37.800 --> 0:02:41.960 companies reopening requiring employees to go back to work, but 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:45.200 that doesn't necessarily translate into the second part of the equation, 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:48.920 which is layoffs or a slower pace of hiring. This 0:02:49.080 --> 0:02:52.440 just speaks to a different way that we are working 0:02:52.919 --> 0:02:58.120 and right now, still restaurants, hotels, the travel industry, the 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.800 the industries that were the hardest hit are those that 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:04.240 are most desperate to get employees back in the doors 0:03:04.600 --> 0:03:07.720 so that they can reopen to full capacity. But the 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:10.680 one constraint that they are seeing is the limited pool 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:13.600 of available labor. So I do think that this report 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.200 could actually be it could have been ecuse me, even 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:20.359 stronger if we saw more workers available and ready to 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:23.000 go back to work. Do you expect that to materially 0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:26.600 change over the next several weeks as schools reopened. I know, 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:30.760 for example, California reopens a lot of their schools Monday. 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:32.600 A lot of other schools in the South and the 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:34.680 West have are to reopened, and here in the Northeast 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:37.640 kind of after Labor Day. For a lot of people, 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.920 we hear that childcare and back to school is a 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.880 really big issue. Do you factor that into your outlook 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.800 for labor? Oh? Absolutely. According to the BLS, there's some 0:03:47.920 --> 0:03:51.160 seven million Americans that report they are currently sidelined from 0:03:51.200 --> 0:03:55.840 the labor force because of daycare or childcare issues. And 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:59.360 as we see America's youth return to full time in 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.800 person learning, I do think that's going to create a 0:04:02.920 --> 0:04:06.040 lot less pressure on the labor market. Also, as we 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:11.440 see some of these federal programs expire, enhance unemployment benefits expire, 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:15.200 and also vaccination rates continue to rise, that's going to 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.520 eliminate some of the fear of contracting or spreading the 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.920 virus or even the new delta variants. So as we 0:04:22.000 --> 0:04:24.680 move forward, there are a lot of factors that are 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:28.640 on the positive side for the economy to continue this 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:32.080 recovery at a very robust pace. Lindsey F. J. Powell 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:35.240 sees a month like this, with those May and June 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.040 upward revisions as well, how does he changes thinking at 0:04:38.040 --> 0:04:41.680 the FED. Well, policymakers have been very clear that they 0:04:41.680 --> 0:04:45.960 will continue to wait for further substantial progress, particularly when 0:04:45.960 --> 0:04:49.800 it comes to the labor market before adjusting accommodation. Now, 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.479 certainly one report is not going to be enough to 0:04:53.200 --> 0:04:56.559 dictate a change in policy, but it certainly moves the ball. 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.880 It moves the FED closer to at least releasing an 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.600 outline for an eventual adjustment to policy, with of course 0:05:03.680 --> 0:05:06.800 taper being that first step. And we continue to anticipated 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:10.960 outline being released as early as later this month, with 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:14.320 a formal announcement coming for taper by the end of 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.239 the year. So that does make the actual taper event 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.680 at least in my opinion, of two events pushing that 0:05:20.800 --> 0:05:24.520 first rate increase out to three or beyond. So even 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.760 as the data continues to strengthen, we're still looking at 0:05:27.760 --> 0:05:31.440 a FED likely to be very accommodated, very patient for 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:35.599 quite some time. Lindsay has the delta variant altered um 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:38.560 Steeple's outlook for GDP for the remainder this year until 0:05:38.560 --> 0:05:43.280 next year. Well, we had already factored in a lingering 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:47.400 fear of the virus and potentially a second round resurgence 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:50.320 around the fall, the time when we start to see 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.880 flu season set in. So we had anticipated that some 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:57.960 return of restrictions would be placed in the country, not 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:01.839 the owner's restrictions that we saw in twenty but certainly 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:05.920 a return of mask mandates. This this was not unanticipated 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:10.400 by ourselves or I think many economists trying to factor 0:06:10.520 --> 0:06:15.640 in these uncertainties. But I think the biggest component right 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:19.280 now is the change in policy metrics, specifically coming out 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:22.760 of the federal government. When you talk about UH stopping 0:06:22.839 --> 0:06:26.279 the the influx of trillions upon trillions upon trillions of 0:06:26.320 --> 0:06:29.240 dollars into the economy, that's going to have a material 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:31.760 effect on top line g d P. When we look 0:06:31.800 --> 0:06:35.560 at the organic components, the consumer is extremely strong, wage growth, 0:06:35.720 --> 0:06:39.640 gage growth up at four percent, housing, manufacturing services all 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.880 running it at full speed. The economy is well established, 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:44.360 but it will be slower than the six and a 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.000 half percent at the start of the year. Lindsay Piggs, 0:06:47.040 --> 0:06:48.760 I thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:52.080 it as always. Lindsay Piggs Pigs, chief economists for Steeple 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:55.040 Financial Paul Sweeney temps down of ECNY Bloomberg Interactive Broker's 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:58.360 studio in New York. Paul, earlier this week, you and 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:01.160 I uh got the news in the afternoon of the 0:07:01.200 --> 0:07:03.719 New York Auto Show, right was canceled. We're discussing that 0:07:03.839 --> 0:07:05.880 it felt like one of those moments, like from March 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:08.000 of where you think things are going in a certain 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:09.960 way and then you start hearing about these events being canceled, 0:07:10.480 --> 0:07:14.239 and that that changes things. Um Indeed, the delta variant 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.360 is increasingly threatening some parts of the US economy. Read 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.080 Pickart writes about it on the Bloomberg terminal and on 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:23.360 Bloomberg dot com. She's US economy reporter for Bloomberg New 0:07:23.400 --> 0:07:26.400 She's on the phone in Washington, d C. Read help 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:28.640 us make sense of the jobs report that we got today, 0:07:28.760 --> 0:07:31.480 coming out a time when companies are saying, wait a second, 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:33.600 we've told you to come back to the office in September. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:39.000 Hold that thought. Maybe October, maybe January. Absolutely so so. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.800 The delta variant, as we all know, it's spreading rapidly, 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:44.440 and as a result, it's injected a lot of uncertainty 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:47.640 into the economic outlook. In just a couple of weeks. 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.840 So we got to f fantastic jazz report today. UM. 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:52.640 But the key thing to keep in mind about it 0:07:52.760 --> 0:07:55.560 is that it's a snot shot of mid July. So 0:07:55.680 --> 0:07:59.200 in the weeks since then, delta has escalated and companies 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.840 like Black Cross up in Amazon have all pushed back 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:04.640 their return to work these um and as you mentioned 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:07.160 just now, you've also started to seek conventions start to 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:11.480 get canceled. UM. So we're trying to monitor high frequency 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:14.960 data as a result, UM, and you're start just starting 0:08:15.000 --> 0:08:18.400 to see UM there it might be having an impact 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:23.000 on spending, particularly on things like entertainment and travel. Um. 0:08:23.080 --> 0:08:26.400 But you know, the key with these high frequency indicators 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:29.360 is there is a lot of noise. So interpreting this 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:33.640 volatile data on a week tweek basis can be quite challenging. Yeah, 0:08:33.920 --> 0:08:36.240 it does, but I think it's really helpful for those 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:38.079 that can really spend the time with it because I 0:08:38.120 --> 0:08:42.199 think about certain data points like open table, you know, restaurants, 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:44.760 where's the restaurant traffic? What are we seeing in the 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:46.600 last week or two? Because this two and I've been 0:08:46.600 --> 0:08:49.800 talking about it just feels like this delta variant discussion 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:51.720 is really heated up over the last couple of weeks. 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:55.080 Right so, so right now with the open table data, 0:08:55.120 --> 0:08:59.040 we haven't been a clear downward trend yet, but the 0:08:59.120 --> 0:09:02.080 same that didcount to me that I thought was quite interesting. UM. 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.120 So there's a company called Castle Systems which essentially tracks 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:10.000 UM electronic access to office buildings, so you know, think 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:12.600 of like the little fob that you often white to 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.320 get into your office building on each day. And you 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:19.040 started to see this pullback UM last week from its 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:23.160 pandemic peaks just a week earlier. And so we're starting 0:09:23.200 --> 0:09:26.720 to kind of see these moments where it's not you know, 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:30.040 you're not sure if it's UM a one week thing 0:09:30.200 --> 0:09:33.839 or the start of a broader trend. But the fact 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:35.679 that it could be the start of a broader trend 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:39.119 is part of why there's all of the economic concerncy 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.400 that we have and plays a lot into you know, 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:45.079 how long we think this is gonna last? What UM, 0:09:45.120 --> 0:09:48.040 what the economic effects are going to be UM. But 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:51.520 when it comes to monthly data, things like the jobs report, 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:53.640 we're going to have to wait a little while until 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.320 we can actually start to see any impact in those figures. 0:09:56.800 --> 0:09:59.160 We're talking about this during during the break and it's 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.040 it seems like, at least the way that we're living 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:04.760 right now, I haven't pulled back my spending. I'm still 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:06.920 going into the office. Maybe in the metro New York 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:11.120 area's got generally a high vaccination rate. Maybe you know, UM, 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:14.120 it'll be interesting to see on the regional side read 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:15.680 what is the other data that we should really be 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:17.600 keeping an eye on, because you do point out that 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.319 total spending using Make of America debon and credit cards 0:10:20.360 --> 0:10:23.800 decelerated meaningfully last week according to economists from the Bank 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:28.040 m JP. Morgan actually had a no doubt today as well, 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:32.040 UM using their Chase cards spending data that showed a 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.559 similar kind of picture in terms of I'll pull back 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:41.119 in spending on travel, UM and entertainment categories. UM. But 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:42.960 but I do want to talk a little bit about 0:10:42.960 --> 0:10:46.840 today's jobs report, if that's okay. It's one of those 0:10:46.880 --> 0:10:49.520 things that, you know, not often do we get to 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:53.840 talk about a report that's kind of right across the board. 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:57.160 There's this obviously had a couple of caveats, um and 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.920 like every report does. UM, but I think it showed 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.920 us that heading into this the delta variant, we had 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.720 a lot of momentum. So not only did we get 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.880 more jobs than we expected UM for the July report, 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.520 but we also saw pretty significant upward revision to the 0:11:13.559 --> 0:11:17.120 prior month as well. So you have all this job growth, 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:21.480 you saw unemployment decline more than most people thought UM, 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:24.280 and you saw the number of long term unemployed or 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.360 the folks who have been out of work for twenty 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:31.040 seven weeks or more followed by the most on record. UM. 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:34.760 So there there's definitely the sense that you have this 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:39.640 massive wave of economist momentum heading into delta UM. And 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:44.480 obviously a delta proposes, you know, adds uncertainty, but for 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:48.679 now most economists see delta as a downside risk rather 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:52.880 than changing fundamentally changing their baseline forecast. Hevery thanks so 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:55.920 much for this. We really appreciate your reporting. Here. Reid Pickered, 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.880 US economy reporter for Bloomberg News joining us on the 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.800 phone from washing in, d C. Again, this that the 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.720 narrative we've had tim for the last you know, seventeen 0:12:04.760 --> 0:12:07.280 eighteen months. It is what is a virus? What is 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.360 a coronavirus? Right? What do we name it? What do 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.679 we call it? And oh my gosh, this is bad. 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:13.560 This is much worse than we thought. This is not 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:16.520 just going to go away. Then it became one, thankfully 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.000 of shutdowns and all that thing. And then it became, 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:22.079 oh my goodness, these vaccines came, and it came perhaps 0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:25.240 earlier than we thought, and oh boy, are they efficient 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:27.199 and do they get the job done? And now it's 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.160 seems to be getting jabs into people in vaccination rates 0:12:30.200 --> 0:12:33.800 and mass. And but now we've got a delta variant. 0:12:34.040 --> 0:12:35.920 It is throwing a wrange in everything. It seems like 0:12:35.960 --> 0:12:38.319 we're just hitting rewind a little bit here and again 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:41.120 the discussion points are point we've got to get people 0:12:41.200 --> 0:12:45.000 vaccinated and to um mass. We have to have that 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:48.120 discussion again. I think that's coming back. It's definitely coming back, 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:52.760 especially in the context of school. Paul. It's it's interesting because, 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.679 and I've talked about this this week, but there's this 0:12:55.760 --> 0:12:59.240 air of uncertainty around corporate earnings and at least when 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:01.640 it comes to guide and and companies just don't know 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.240 what the delta variant is going to do in terms 0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:08.520 of changing consumer behavior. Peter Kern, the Expedia Group CEO 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:10.719 and vice chair, was on Bloomberg TV earlier today. He 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:13.720 said that even though this isn't COVID all over again, 0:13:13.760 --> 0:13:15.800 Like this isn't lockdowns at least here in the US. 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:18.840 When it's it's more of a wave right. When cases 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.640 go up, local governments around the world change their recommendations 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:25.080 some he said, like Australia lockdown. That changes things, and 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:28.000 it changes things in an unforeseen way. Yeah, it does. 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.320 And it just kind of just reminds us, um that 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:32.839 this is going to be with us for a while 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:35.680 in some form, And it's a question of how has 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.280 it has been from the beginning, of how we alter 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:40.080 our behavior, how we deal with it, how we engage 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.640 with it on a daily basis. Thankfully, you know, the vaccine, 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:48.040 many many people are vaccinated in many parts of the world. Unfortunately, 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.959 many parts of the the world are are tremendously under vaccinated, 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:53.560 and that's where the focus needs to go on a 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.760 global scale. But given that there is good vaccination rates 0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.280 and many parts of the world, Uh, you know, we're 0:13:59.480 --> 0:14:01.800 told by the exper US that this is this is different. Um. 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.800 We can live with this, we can work through this, um, 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.199 and but there may be some time force I'm asking, well, 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:10.760 let's talk a little bit more about the virus and vaccines. 0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:14.640 Because it is the cover of this week's Bloomberg Business Week. 0:14:14.800 --> 0:14:18.800 It's available on newsstands and at Bloomberg dot com slash 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:22.760 business Week. It is a double issue. It has a fantastic, 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.760 fantastic group of stories. Joel Webber's editor of Bloomberg Business Week. 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:29.760 He joins us now on the remote from Massachusetts, I 0:14:29.760 --> 0:14:33.440 want to start droll with the with the cover here. Uh, 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:36.440 Vaccine Mandates for Kids is the next big back to 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.360 school fight. It is the cover story by Riley Griffin 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:43.120 and Susie Ring. Take us into Uh we talked to 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:45.000 you earlier this week about the story. Take us into 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.520 the cover though, who is it and how did you 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:51.280 choose it? Amazingly, this is the daughter of one of 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.680 our our directors on the staff. Really this is not 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:58.400 a stock photo yet not a stock photo and we 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:02.280 shot it last weekend. Um. She actually is a gap 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.040 model or has been a gap models kind of took 0:15:05.080 --> 0:15:08.200 her out of her retirement. Did you did you have 0:15:08.240 --> 0:15:12.120 to get her agents to approved that dad approved? We 0:15:12.160 --> 0:15:14.680 did not. We did not pay Dad for for this. Um. 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:17.720 So so uh, you know, we tried to look a 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.000 little bit into the teacher with this story because we're 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:24.240 just around the corner from the school year starting. Um, 0:15:24.520 --> 0:15:27.720 we're gonna have a real moment here with society when 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:32.000 schools reopened and kids who you know, obviously below twelve 0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:35.760 don't have um vaccination abilities yet, but twelves and seven team, 0:15:35.760 --> 0:15:39.160 we've seemed really lackluster numbers, and so we're gonna see 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:42.120 a really interesting moment here with schools decided to mandate 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:45.920 vaccines as kids begin going back to school with those 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.640 that can get vaccines, and then you know, potentially as 0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:50.280 early as the beginning of the new year, we could 0:15:50.320 --> 0:15:53.400 see kids under twelve start to get vaccinated as well. Yeah, 0:15:53.440 --> 0:15:55.480 it's interesting and Joel, you probably saw that the news. 0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:57.600 But here in the state of New Jersey where I live, 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:02.040 the Governor Murphy just announced that schools will require masking. 0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:05.480 Everybody's coming back full service, everybody in the in the 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:08.200 in the classroom, but h going to require mask and 0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:12.000 that appears to be one path forward in some some states. 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:14.440 I think I think of Florida maybe taking a different 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:18.360 path that's going to be. And you know, masking is 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.239 divisive and and you know vaccination is is that plus 0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:25.520 like times of thousand really um, And what we know 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.520 though is the delta variant being such a variable here. Um, 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:31.560 I think we're going to see more and more states 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:34.680 come around to a masking mandate, at least for school 0:16:34.680 --> 0:16:37.720 as sort of a uh AN entry point, right, And 0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.400 obviously I think some of those decisions are going to 0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:43.680 break down politically at least dong state lines. But yeah, 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.840 that that masking mandate is sort of part of it, 0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:49.960 and the vaccination discussion isn't far beyond. Now, keep in mind, 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:52.400 the other variable on all of this is that school's 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:54.640 mandate vaccines all the time. You know that it's different 0:16:54.640 --> 0:16:56.680 about the COVID one is that we still don't have 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.600 and the FDA backing and that FDA acting is sort 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:02.960 of the thing that everybody's watching for. We're still under 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:06.320 the Emergency Use authorization. I don't imagine though, that people 0:17:06.320 --> 0:17:08.199 who are declining shots right now are going to be 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.280 lining up once the FDA fully approves these vaccines. But 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.960 you know it's because of delta. We've actually seen some 0:17:14.080 --> 0:17:17.440 uptick in places uh in terms of inoculations in places 0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:20.000 that have been there too for slow to adopt. So 0:17:20.160 --> 0:17:23.600 it is yet another thing that can hopefully help overcome 0:17:23.640 --> 0:17:26.200 some hesitancy. One thing that we were also talking about 0:17:26.240 --> 0:17:27.520 this week, joll and it's in the current issue of 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:30.400 Bloomberg Business Week is the mad rush to deliver groceries 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:34.040 in ten minutes. Vcs have bet billions of dollars on 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:37.480 getting you bananas and beer in a very short period 0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.000 of time. Uh, what's the opportunity there? This is a 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:43.080 story by Alex Webb of Bloomberg Quick take Over in London. 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.639 The illustration for this story is awesome. It's a little 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:49.600 beer can with rocket jets on attached to it. Back 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:53.360 um there. Obviously, there have been the instant cart kind 0:17:53.400 --> 0:17:56.840 of services that have effectively teamed up with grocery stores 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.280 and to do delivery for the past year. But the 0:17:59.280 --> 0:18:02.359 other phenomenon on is this new thing where we're seeing 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:06.800 basically what are dark stores pop up and those these 0:18:06.800 --> 0:18:11.159 locations are actually their own services, things like gorillas is 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.240 is is it one? Get here? Is another? Bill puff 0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:16.199 as another. There's other ones. Even New York has its 0:18:16.240 --> 0:18:19.520 own versions of this. But they're all promising basically to 0:18:19.600 --> 0:18:23.159 be able to deliver groceries within tend to fifteen or 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:27.480 twenty minutes. And VC has spotted a huge opportunity here 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:31.359 to disrupt the corner Deli. Those corner delis have long 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:35.320 been very profitable UM, and by pouring a ton of 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.280 VC money into this, it's opened up an opportunity. But 0:18:39.040 --> 0:18:42.560 the thing is that that window is is dependent upon 0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.160 UM being there without that much competition, and we're already 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:50.479 seeing so many competitors that potentially the profit won't won't 0:18:50.600 --> 0:18:53.399 be sustainable. I love the corner of Bodega. I know 0:18:53.520 --> 0:18:55.399 I do too. I think most peop who would want 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:57.639 to take it from you? Right? I had to go 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.360 to ours this morning to get some milk, ran out 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:04.040 of milk and it was closed. It was too early. 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:05.840 I had to put a one that was way further away, 0:19:05.960 --> 0:19:08.119 And I was actually thinking about this story because it 0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:09.760 was like the one time where I needed to get 0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:12.879 milk in ten minutes or less. Joe Weber Or Weber 0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:15.520 is editor at Bloomberg Business Week, joining us each and 0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:18.520 every day here on Bloomberg Business Week. You heard Paul 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.960 earlier mentioned New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy mandating masks in 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:26.080 schools as cases increase among a younger population. That next 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:28.800 month is going to start in person lessons. Also some 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.920 other virus headlines United becoming the first major US carry 0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.639 to require employee inoculation UH and JP Morgan Chase, as 0:19:35.680 --> 0:19:38.359 we talked about earlier, is bringing back its mask requirement 0:19:39.160 --> 0:19:42.440 as Amazon did for frontline workers, even for those people 0:19:42.480 --> 0:19:45.280 who have already been vaccinated. So a host of virus 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:47.400 news to get to. Let's do it as we do 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:49.679 each and every Friday, with Dr Ian LUs Beder, clinical 0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.200 Professor of Medicine at n y U Langones Medical Center, 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:54.840 joining us on the phone from New York City. Dr 0:19:54.920 --> 0:19:57.920 LUs Beder always great to check in with you on Fridays. 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:01.199 It feels different now, and I know I don't I 0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:04.360 don't want to. I don't want to say that we're 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:06.399 not looking at the data because the data is different, 0:20:06.400 --> 0:20:08.840 and that's why it does feel different. I think where 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:11.240 are we in terms of getting out of this pandemic? 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.960 Hello Tim and Paul, Hope you guys are doing well. Um. 0:20:16.000 --> 0:20:19.879 I think in terms of the pandemic, it's becoming pretty 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:24.960 obvious that essentially everyone, certainly in the United States and globally, 0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:29.040 is going to be exposed to the delta variant. We always, 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:31.800 even at the beginning of this, with vaccines and so forth. 0:20:31.880 --> 0:20:34.919 Two years ago, talked about slowing the spread, and I 0:20:34.960 --> 0:20:38.720 think that's really all we can hope for is to 0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:42.119 slow the spread. Everyone is going to be exposed at 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:47.080 this rate. The vaccinated people certainly have an advantage UH 0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:48.919 in the sense that at this time it looks like 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:52.320 the vaccines, even as antibody levels drop a bit, are 0:20:52.440 --> 0:20:57.480 really avoiding UM for the most part, hospitalizations and severe disease. 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:02.040 You know, the unvaccinated UH typically will get a bad cold, 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:06.360 but certainly a significant percent will get hospitalized. And at 0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:10.320 this point it looks like the vast majority of patients 0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:14.679 who are hospitalized with COVID are unvaccinated. So vaccines are 0:21:14.760 --> 0:21:18.040 one arm. Everyone is going to be exposed. Even those 0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:22.240 who have been vaccinated may well get DELTA to one 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.600 degree or another, it looks like they will avoid severe disease, 0:21:26.480 --> 0:21:30.720 and we're relying on other things to kind of hold 0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:34.520 things up. Masks, for example, which also are not a 0:21:34.600 --> 0:21:37.959 cure old by any means, they do reduce spread maybe 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:43.399