1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:07,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,159
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance is about conversation. That's the way we do it.

3
00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:14,400
Speaker 2: Right now, joining us with our question or interview of

4
00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:19,000
Speaker 2: the day. Steven Englander with Earn Credit the standard Charter bank,

5
00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,200
Speaker 2: definitive at City Group for years on cross rates, absolutely

6
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:26,160
Speaker 2: known globally for the relationships and currency show. I want

7
00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:28,600
Speaker 2: to cut to the chase and go back to Yale. Okay,

8
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,920
Speaker 2: you at Bob Evanson is your faculty advisor at Yale.

9
00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,960
Speaker 2: Did you ever go to the Yale Harvard tailgate games

10
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:37,680
Speaker 2: that were legendary with Evanson?

11
00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:40,600
Speaker 3: No, but he did send me to the Pesol Fundeau

12
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:44,800
Speaker 3: in Brazil to look at their agricultural experiment stations and

13
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:46,080
Speaker 3: see what they were doing.

14
00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:50,800
Speaker 2: His was granular data, which is the way Steve Englander rolls.

15
00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:52,840
Speaker 4: What take the Yale.

16
00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,880
Speaker 2: Granular study that Colls commissioned, Schill Earn all that and

17
00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:58,680
Speaker 2: bring it over to how you make a call of

18
00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:00,760
Speaker 2: fifty basis points September.

19
00:01:02,720 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 3: I think the trick is to try and understand everything

20
00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,200
Speaker 3: that's in the market and ask, you know, why does

21
00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:12,000
Speaker 3: the market think what it's thinking? What is the market logic?

22
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 3: And then say, do I have a right to disagree

23
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:16,480
Speaker 3: with it? Do I think that there's something I know

24
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 3: that the market doesn't know? And how comfortable am I

25
00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 3: with it?

26
00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,120
Speaker 2: Let's start on the dual mandate of inflation. Let's go

27
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,959
Speaker 2: back to Evanson, giant of Minnesota and teaching it Yale

28
00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,600
Speaker 2: iconic and that's the American farmer. The images this weekend

29
00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:34,600
Speaker 2: of farmers in Arkansas flat on their back, how pernicious,

30
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,959
Speaker 2: Stephen Englander is the inflation now in America?

31
00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,760
Speaker 3: I think the perception is quite strong, and there is

32
00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,800
Speaker 3: a justification. I'd say this that the if you look

33
00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:50,120
Speaker 3: at some of the adjustments for technological progress, our computers

34
00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 3: are much better, but we don't use that much of

35
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:55,760
Speaker 3: their capacity. So you know, some of the softness that

36
00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:58,920
Speaker 3: we sometimes see in inflation is sort of added on

37
00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,120
Speaker 3: by the bl It's completely legitimate, but it's not what

38
00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,160
Speaker 3: the price of coffee is. What you know Arkansas farmers

39
00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:08,959
Speaker 3: or inputs from Markansas farmers.

40
00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,480
Speaker 2: Steven Anglander, where there's the standard charter bank, we are

41
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 2: commercial trees through the market opening and well into this

42
00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:15,640
Speaker 2: nine o'clock hour.

43
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 4: David Gurray in for Paul Sweeney.

44
00:02:17,400 --> 00:02:19,400
Speaker 5: David, you mentioned that you're sort of looking at all

45
00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,040
Speaker 5: of these market factors as you come up with that forecaster.

46
00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,040
Speaker 5: What was it that led you to make this call?

47
00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 5: Was it the simple variable of just the jobs numbers

48
00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:29,160
Speaker 5: that we got, or were there was there some other

49
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,080
Speaker 5: mechanism or variable that made you feel confident in that.

50
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:35,480
Speaker 3: Well, you also have to try and read the mind

51
00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,360
Speaker 3: of the FED and the in sentence in the market

52
00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:40,919
Speaker 3: and so on, and they think, you know, yeah.

53
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 1: You know, I actually think it's the right thing to do.

54
00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,799
Speaker 3: And one question I asked myself is, say they had

55
00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,359
Speaker 3: known the data for the last four months, nonfarm pay

56
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,919
Speaker 3: rolls last four months as averaged twenty seven thousand, and

57
00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,040
Speaker 3: because of the bias that you get from the birth

58
00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 3: death adjustment, we think even that's overstated. Would they have cut?

59
00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 3: And you know the answer is yeah, entire mind that

60
00:03:02,480 --> 00:03:04,840
Speaker 3: they would have cut. And so we think that they're

61
00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,560
Speaker 3: not going to commit themselves to making a series of cuts,

62
00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 3: but they're going to say, look, you know, the numbers

63
00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,359
Speaker 3: are softer than we expected. We're reading the numbers and

64
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,040
Speaker 3: they justify cutting, but also a bit of catchup.

65
00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 5: We're in this moment where the integrity of government data

66
00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:21,839
Speaker 5: is being cast into question more than it has been,

67
00:03:22,760 --> 00:03:25,280
Speaker 5: certainly by personnel movements, but also as you listen to

68
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:28,080
Speaker 5: the present's economic advisors suggesting that they're not capturing the

69
00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:32,359
Speaker 5: labor economy in a holistic sense. How does that complicate

70
00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,000
Speaker 5: your job as a private sector economist who's looking at

71
00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:37,760
Speaker 5: the economy. Does it raise doubts in your mind?

72
00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:37,920
Speaker 2: How?

73
00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:39,520
Speaker 5: How does it sort of change the work that you're

74
00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:40,840
Speaker 5: doing if that's coming about.

75
00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,720
Speaker 3: Well, we actually spend a lot of time looking at

76
00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,640
Speaker 3: the data and trying to understand if they're legitimate or not.

77
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,120
Speaker 3: Like last year, one of our big papers, and I

78
00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:50,760
Speaker 3: think we were one of the first, was sort of

79
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 3: integrating undocumented immigrants and kind of saying, there's a reason

80
00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,520
Speaker 3: the pyerials are so strong because they're getting work permits

81
00:03:58,640 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 3: and getting picked up by NFP.

82
00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 4: I want to take a little bit of theory here.

83
00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:04,880
Speaker 2: The Yale a Budget Lab at Yale has been absolutely

84
00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,840
Speaker 2: brilliant in teaching us about this legislation and about tariffs

85
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:12,040
Speaker 2: as well. I personally saw terriffs this weekend in Canna paint.

86
00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,160
Speaker 2: When I'm fifteen percent out of the blue, Steve Englander,

87
00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,680
Speaker 2: I'm in the camp. David Kelly, I want to say

88
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,840
Speaker 2: at Putnam at JP Morgan David Kelly writing about the

89
00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:27,359
Speaker 2: income effect as well, we're all focused on substituting. Lisa's

90
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 2: going to go to Costco. She's not gonna buy coffee,

91
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,560
Speaker 2: She's going to buy Sanka Blogony to me right now,

92
00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,120
Speaker 2: what's going on as a major income effect affected by

93
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,440
Speaker 2: purchasing power? This goes back to a guy named Hicks, folks,

94
00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,919
Speaker 2: a guy named Slutsky. But the answer is we're being

95
00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 2: a hit with a new purchasing power that's evaporating.

96
00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,280
Speaker 3: I think that's correct, and you know a lot of

97
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,839
Speaker 3: people understand it. You know, in terms of oil prices,

98
00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,640
Speaker 3: right you know you were paying forty to fill up

99
00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:56,040
Speaker 3: your tank.

100
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:57,040
Speaker 1: Now you pay eighty.

101
00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:00,000
Speaker 3: It means one, let's trip with the kids to McDonald

102
00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:05,280
Speaker 3: in the week. With tariffs and import prices, it's more

103
00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:08,200
Speaker 3: spread out and less dramatic, but it's the same kind

104
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,440
Speaker 3: of impact. All of a sudden, everything you see is

105
00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,880
Speaker 3: a little bit more expensive and you have to make

106
00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:14,919
Speaker 3: decisions and prioritize your spending.

107
00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:20,240
Speaker 2: Feel the dreams will fifty basis points ease our pain ultimately?

108
00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,080
Speaker 3: I think yes, And let me be clear, because we

109
00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,799
Speaker 3: think that they do fifty and then they pause because

110
00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:31,479
Speaker 3: GDP numbers aren't bad. Productivity looks like it's actually pretty good.

111
00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,800
Speaker 4: You sure Sharma said that in the Ft today and the.

112
00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:38,640
Speaker 3: You know, you look at the labor numbers, as you know,

113
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:43,160
Speaker 3: they're really mediocre. Its sluggish, softish. But you know, as

114
00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:44,960
Speaker 3: you know, I was at Lehman's in two thousand and eight,

115
00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:47,440
Speaker 3: this is not a two thousand and eight type of

116
00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:50,920
Speaker 3: labor market. That's not a twenty April twenty twenty labor market.

117
00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:56,800
Speaker 3: It's a mediocre, sluggish, poor labor market where you know

118
00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,320
Speaker 3: you probably should get closer to neutral, but nothing is

119
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:00,320
Speaker 3: falling off.

120
00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,680
Speaker 5: The Chairman has talked about the oddness of that and

121
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:08,040
Speaker 5: the challenge of having a market like you describe. How

122
00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,520
Speaker 5: much closer are we to figuring out why it is

123
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:12,960
Speaker 5: that way and why it continues to be Is it's

124
00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:17,160
Speaker 5: just the simple sense of ambiguity about policies and their effects,

125
00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 5: Is it? As you hear from Scott Bessant or Kevin Hassett,

126
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,680
Speaker 5: You know, things will take time to equilibrate or work

127
00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,520
Speaker 5: themselves out. What do you make of the labor market

128
00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:26,720
Speaker 5: the state in which it's in right now?

129
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:29,920
Speaker 3: Well, look if I want to criticize the fad, I'd

130
00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:33,160
Speaker 3: say that they spend ninety percent of their time worrying

131
00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,120
Speaker 3: about the man shocks. And here we are talking about

132
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,640
Speaker 3: productivity shocks, talking about labor market shocks, and there's a

133
00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,039
Speaker 3: lot of ambiguity in terms of how you interpret numbers

134
00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,919
Speaker 3: when they come in because you don't know if they're moving,

135
00:06:47,279 --> 00:06:52,159
Speaker 3: you know what shock is moving them. So I think

136
00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:58,080
Speaker 3: that that's the big issue that leaves things uncertain, and

137
00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,120
Speaker 3: you know, uncertain about how bad things are. So I

138
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,400
Speaker 3: think that you know, in some ways, it argues that

139
00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,159
Speaker 3: you know, you kind of know the direction, so you

140
00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,240
Speaker 3: make a move, but you'd be very cautious. I mean,

141
00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,240
Speaker 3: what if we're in nineteen ninety seven.

142
00:07:10,480 --> 00:07:13,840
Speaker 5: Is stagflation a word that is bandied about in the

143
00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:16,600
Speaker 5: standard charted offices? Is it something that you were thinking

144
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:18,320
Speaker 5: about or worried about at this moment.

145
00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:20,440
Speaker 1: It's always a worry.

146
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,760
Speaker 3: But you know, with labor markets so soft, you know,

147
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:27,800
Speaker 3: and spending going to be soft, I don't think labor

148
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,200
Speaker 3: is going to be able to push wages up, you know.

149
00:07:30,240 --> 00:07:32,920
Speaker 1: So I think that you know, irrespected.

150
00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:37,320
Speaker 3: In the sixties, he's so Yale, irrespectful, irrespected of the

151
00:07:37,360 --> 00:07:38,880
Speaker 3: productivity story.

152
00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,560
Speaker 1: I think that the you know, uh yeah, Dart.

153
00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,920
Speaker 2: With a brilliant essay this weekend, and he goes back

154
00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:48,200
Speaker 2: to nominal GDP, and I get it. It's a conundrum.

155
00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:51,360
Speaker 2: Do we have terrible economic growth but still buoying inflation?

156
00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 2: Stagflation is doctor Ger talks about here, Stephen Englander. Is

157
00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:58,640
Speaker 2: the real risk here that we get this wrong and

158
00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,640
Speaker 2: we have dampen growth and quiescent inflation where nominal GDP

159
00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:08,560
Speaker 2: dips below five percent, ginormous number dips below Dare I

160
00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 2: say four percent or worse? Er?

161
00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:14,560
Speaker 4: Is that in one of your probabilities? You know?

162
00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:17,160
Speaker 3: I think that you know, we all talk about AI

163
00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,840
Speaker 3: all day long, and I think that that's going to

164
00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:25,760
Speaker 3: be the real decisor for how the economy breaks that

165
00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:27,840
Speaker 3: if it turns out that we're, you know, partly because

166
00:08:27,840 --> 00:08:31,000
Speaker 3: of AI or other factors, that productivity growth is strong, right,

167
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:32,280
Speaker 3: everything's going to be fun.

168
00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:33,760
Speaker 4: But the FED doesn't have that luxury.

169
00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 2: We can talk about it, we can go yeah, yeah,

170
00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:39,200
Speaker 2: bring in Simon Johnson up at MIT. Rogueoff was on

171
00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,600
Speaker 2: the other day. It's a bunch of bow type of stuff.

172
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 2: The FED doesn't have that luxury. Do they to ponder

173
00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 2: AI in productivity?

174
00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,319
Speaker 1: Well, A, they should, But I know.

175
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:55,719
Speaker 4: Schoomberg prescriptive of should. I thought Crewman was.

176
00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:57,319
Speaker 2: On once and I couldn't get him to say the

177
00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,360
Speaker 2: dreaded s word should Englanders doing it?

178
00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 4: What should got to do with it?

179
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,480
Speaker 3: But I think you know, in practice, given the absence

180
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,280
Speaker 3: of knowledge, it just means that you you sort of

181
00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 3: go slowly in the direction that you think that data

182
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,800
Speaker 3: are telling you. I mean, there's no straw here with

183
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,000
Speaker 3: which to make bricks, and you know you can critique

184
00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,480
Speaker 3: the productivity data very easily as well. So I think

185
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,520
Speaker 3: that they sort of you know, you take a step,

186
00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:28,400
Speaker 3: you see what happens, Take another step, see what happens.

187
00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 3: If something bad happens, you stop, or you step back

188
00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,599
Speaker 3: a little bit. If it looks good, you keep going.

189
00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,600
Speaker 2: I want you to jump in here and finish out

190
00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,360
Speaker 2: the interview. We're having so much funnier folks with the

191
00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:44,640
Speaker 2: academics of doctor England or I really want to emphasize

192
00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:49,840
Speaker 2: some of this stuff is incredible dynamics moving parts. David

193
00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,960
Speaker 2: Off of that is this dreaded word ambiguity, which is

194
00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 2: we really don't know where we are or what's going

195
00:09:58,920 --> 00:09:59,360
Speaker 2: to happen?

196
00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,080
Speaker 5: Continue will I will ask you to indulge me and

197
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 5: do a little work for us here as we look

198
00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,760
Speaker 5: ahead to this week of data. So we have these revisions,

199
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,600
Speaker 5: I'm curious how you're thinking about them, But also we

200
00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,720
Speaker 5: had priceding goals beyond Friday, saying he wants to see

201
00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,200
Speaker 5: the inflation data this week. That matters to him. We've

202
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:16,280
Speaker 5: got to look at the inflation side too, He says,

203
00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:18,520
Speaker 5: how important is that to you? So how should be

204
00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,680
Speaker 5: thinking or framing the data releases that we're going to

205
00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:21,480
Speaker 5: get this week.

206
00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,120
Speaker 3: I think the important thing about the benchmark revisions is

207
00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:28,520
Speaker 3: we think they're going to be significant, maybe seven hundred

208
00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,160
Speaker 3: and fifty to one million down. And the important things

209
00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:33,840
Speaker 3: there is there's no reason to think that things have

210
00:10:33,880 --> 00:10:39,160
Speaker 3: gotten better since the March of twenty twenty five as

211
00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:43,560
Speaker 3: far as inflation goes, I think the real issue you know, yeah,

212
00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:45,840
Speaker 3: so you know my shirt price went up because there's

213
00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:47,000
Speaker 3: a tariff on shirts.

214
00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,280
Speaker 1: I mean, you don't know how to gauge it.

215
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,880
Speaker 3: If it turns out that you know, say, services inflation

216
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,720
Speaker 3: is heating up, stuff that you know is not related

217
00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:58,679
Speaker 3: to tariffs is heating up, then there's a problem.

218
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,160
Speaker 2: What happens to the animal spirit? You mentioned seven fifty

219
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:05,120
Speaker 2: to one million, most people are below that. I'd say

220
00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,679
Speaker 2: four hundred and five. I mean Steve Englander's out in

221
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,000
Speaker 2: a linear folks, with what we're gonna see tomorrow.

222
00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:11,040
Speaker 4: We'll have complete.

223
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:15,000
Speaker 2: Coverage of this and Steven Angler, what does it mean

224
00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:20,160
Speaker 2: for people's retirement plans? Slash the stock market? If we

225
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:24,960
Speaker 2: get Anglander rate cuts? Is that good or bad for equities?

226
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,920
Speaker 3: You know, a little bit of bad news is probably

227
00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,679
Speaker 3: pretty good for equities because it calms the market down

228
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:33,679
Speaker 3: and it sort of says, look, if if you get

229
00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,959
Speaker 3: your company right, cost the capital isn't going to be

230
00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,600
Speaker 3: an issue for you. I think if things are really

231
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,560
Speaker 3: falling apart, like you know twenty twenty or two thousand

232
00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:46,120
Speaker 3: and eight, then you know, bad news is really bad news.

233
00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:49,040
Speaker 3: But in many circumstances, a little bit of bad news

234
00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:53,599
Speaker 3: is actually good news for equities. And I'd say this

235
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:55,760
Speaker 3: is that the equity you know, you sort of say

236
00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 3: wire equity is so strong when when everybody thinks things

237
00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,240
Speaker 3: are a mush, it sort of makes you look at

238
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 3: the productivity element again, kind of saying, well, wages aren't

239
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:07,280
Speaker 3: going up, but it looks like GDP is fairly strong.

240
00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:11,800
Speaker 3: What's left. It's not going into Texas. There's only profits.

241
00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 2: Bill from London emails in, he's with a standard charter

242
00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,320
Speaker 2: bank and says, ask Steven what it means for the

243
00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:19,200
Speaker 2: rest of the world.

244
00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,320
Speaker 4: How about a standard charter.

245
00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,520
Speaker 2: Question this morning for Bill Winters? What does all this

246
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 2: Anglander talk mean for Singapore, for London and the rest

247
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,720
Speaker 2: of the standard charter world?

248
00:12:31,120 --> 00:12:34,120
Speaker 1: In some ways it's actually okay. I mean there are

249
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:34,800
Speaker 1: two elements.

250
00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,200
Speaker 3: One is that if you look at the AI game,

251
00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,000
Speaker 3: if that's the game, you sort of say, okay, US

252
00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,600
Speaker 3: seems to be on the game. China might be in

253
00:12:42,679 --> 00:12:45,640
Speaker 3: the game. A bunch of other countries trying to get

254
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,280
Speaker 3: in Europe, you know.

255
00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:49,520
Speaker 1: Right not there having some conferences.

256
00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:54,120
Speaker 3: On the other hand, you know, the say US GDP

257
00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 3: or say the FED cuts by the fifty basis points.

258
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:00,200
Speaker 1: That's everybody else.

259
00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:03,560
Speaker 3: His interest rates go down by thirty to fifty bases points,

260
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:08,480
Speaker 3: and that's far more important to them than sort of saying, well, oh,

261
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,319
Speaker 3: you know, if Englander's right, you know, they're forty your jobs,

262
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:15,040
Speaker 3: so they're not going to buy a Singapore export. The

263
00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,160
Speaker 3: fact that they can get their cost of capital and

264
00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:18,199
Speaker 3: the risk premium is down.

265
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:19,800
Speaker 1: They think is more important to the rest of them.

266
00:13:19,800 --> 00:13:22,679
Speaker 2: Does Bill Winters know that Standard Charter Bank is up

267
00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:26,040
Speaker 2: eighty nine points sixty seven percent in the past twelve

268
00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 2: months because of Steve Englander.

269
00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 3: Well, I think he can add like four or five

270
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:36,560
Speaker 3: decimal points, but I'm not From from your mouth to

271
00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:37,760
Speaker 3: his ears, honored.

272
00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,560
Speaker 2: We'd love to get a phone call with you tomorrow

273
00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,600
Speaker 2: on your busy day, Steve Englander when we get this data.

274
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,600
Speaker 2: Doctor Englander is with a Standard Charter Bank and they're

275
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,800
Speaker 2: just thrilled to give you extended conversations there. That's what

276
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:53,280
Speaker 2: Bloomberg likes to do for Global at Wall Street