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Speaker 1: From the red carpet arrivals to glamorous after parties. It's

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Speaker 1: the most magical night of the year.

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Speaker 2: And today the Action Network honors Hollywood the best way

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Speaker 2: we know how by helping you profit up the monumental

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Speaker 2: creative achievements of others.

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Speaker 1: And what's more Hollywood than that. Let's gamble on the

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Speaker 1: Academy Awards.

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Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This

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Speaker 2: is our annual Academy Awards betting preview episode. I am

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Speaker 2: your host, Chris Raybon of the Action Network, and I'm

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Speaker 2: here with college sports connoisseur Oscar Better Holland Wilson Colin.

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Speaker 1: What's going on. It's going to see the brother Like

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Speaker 1: we finally get to cross our paths once a year.

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Speaker 1: I do my thing Saturday mornings. You do your Sunday mornings.

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Speaker 1: But this is the time where you and I get together,

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Speaker 1: put our heads and get some great best And this

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Speaker 1: is my favorite thing to do all year.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is a I think one of the

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Speaker 2: better Oscar slates since we've been here. This is our

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Speaker 2: sixth time doing this podcast. I see a lot of categories, unfortunately.

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Speaker 1: Not as money.

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Speaker 2: Of the main categories but a lot of the smaller

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Speaker 2: categories I see a lot of value.

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Speaker 1: So we'll be getting to.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, you know the eight main categories Picture Director, the

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Speaker 2: four acting categories, the two screenplay categories.

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Speaker 1: But we also got.

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Speaker 2: A bunch of others where we see value, which we'll

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Speaker 2: get into.

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Speaker 1: So let's get right to it.

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Speaker 2: But as a reminder, this is the ninety six Academy

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Speaker 2: Awards airs live from the Adobe Theater in Hollywood, California, Sunday,

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Speaker 2: March tenth, seven pm Eastern on ABC. And quick heads up,

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Speaker 2: the Great State of North Carolina is launching sports betting

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Speaker 2: this Monday, March eleventh, So if you're in the tar

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Speaker 2: Heel State, you must take advantage of the best sign

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Speaker 2: up offers across every sportsbook. And you can find a

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Speaker 2: link to every single one of those offers in this

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Speaker 2: episode description. So you're in North Carolina, check out our

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Speaker 2: link in the episode description for all of the sign

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Speaker 2: up offers. All right, so we're gonna start with Picture Director, Colin.

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Speaker 2: As I mentioned these main categories, there are some prohibitive favorites,

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Speaker 2: not a ton of long shot values in these, but

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Speaker 2: you see kind of a way to get around that

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Speaker 2: by parlaying some of these, So I'm gonna let you

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Speaker 2: talk about it. I'm just gonna set up Best Picture first,

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Speaker 2: just to tell people just how ridiculous these odds are.

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Speaker 2: So Oppenheimer a minus five thousand favorite the closest. The

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Speaker 2: next closest one is Poor Things at plus two thousand,

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Speaker 2: Zone of Interest at plus twenty five hundred, the Holdovers

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Speaker 2: plus twenty eight hundred, and Barbie plus thirty five hundred

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Speaker 2: year olds. I got Killers of the Flower Moon, Anatomy

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Speaker 2: of a full American fiction path, Lives, and Maestro rounding

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Speaker 2: out the ten nominees. But Colin, talk to me about

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Speaker 2: Oppenheimer here. I believe you agree that it should be

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Speaker 2: the favorite, and you're just going to parlay a bunch

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Speaker 2: of these short, short, short odds for Oppenheimer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I walked out of Oppenheimer last summer

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Speaker 1: the weekend that had opened, started laying bets on Robert

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Speaker 1: Downey Junior Best Picture. Everything I could that was at

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Speaker 1: the time priced like two to one minus one ten.

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Speaker 1: Those numbers are gone. So in the spirit of the

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Speaker 1: Barbenheimer movement of last summer, we're going to have an

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Speaker 1: OPPI parlay and I have to ask, did you do

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Speaker 1: Barbie and Oppenheimer on the same day? Because for me,

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Speaker 1: it was like Nick mixing Milk's milk and vodka together.

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Speaker 1: It just did not work to do that in the

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Speaker 1: same day. Did you did you happen to do that? Nah? Man?

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Speaker 1: I had a whole adventure with Oppenheimer's.

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Speaker 2: Barbie was actually the last of the Best Picture nominees

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Speaker 2: that I watched. I think Barbie. I enjoyed Barbie more

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Speaker 2: than Oppenheimer. I was actually surprised that. I mean, I

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Speaker 2: think Oppenheimer is a deservant winner, but I'm just surprised

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Speaker 2: that it's getting like, absolutely no love.

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Speaker 1: I guess maybe because it was comedic, but I don't know,

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Speaker 1: what did you? What did you think of Barbie? Real quick?

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Speaker 1: The bar for Barbie for me was extremely low. I

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Speaker 1: have a daughter. I took her to the movie, and

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Speaker 1: five minutes in I knew that this was an adult

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Speaker 1: movie with adult tones and conversations around what it's like

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Speaker 1: to be a woman, what it's like to be a man,

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Speaker 1: making adults laugh, catering to kids, the whole Motel thing.

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Speaker 1: I thought it was perfectly done, and I cannot get

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Speaker 1: over Ryan Gosling, Like the performance that he put on

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Speaker 1: I have I am kanough hoodie. The music by Billy

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Speaker 1: Eilish will get there is perfection. The movie so over

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Speaker 1: exceeded where I thought it was gonna be. I'm surprised

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Speaker 1: it's not getting any love in the betting market and

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Speaker 1: maybe not get any love this weekend. But it was

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Speaker 1: an excellent movie. If you haven't seen it and you're

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Speaker 1: just a dude, don't be scared to watch it by yourself.

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Speaker 1: It's actually a really really good movie.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that Poor Things was amazing too, But yeah, Barbie,

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Speaker 2: I just thought it was so creative. I thought Margot

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Speaker 2: Robbie was great at the uh, just the way they

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Speaker 2: kind of weaved in jokes into it with deep content

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Speaker 2: and a lot of subtle things going on. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's it's not even in the top three in terms

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Speaker 2: of the odds, so I don't think that's gonna pull

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Speaker 2: off the upset here. But let's go and look at director,

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Speaker 2: because that's gonna kind of tie into what you're talking

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Speaker 2: about with this parlay. So Oppenheimer for director is also

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Speaker 2: minus five thousand, and then your ghosts. This is like

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Speaker 2: a It's like, first you got that Niners chief super

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Speaker 2: Bowl and then it's like your ghost is in second

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Speaker 2: place again in it for a movie with Emma Stone,

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Speaker 2: So it's like everything twenty nineteen's happening all over again.

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Speaker 2: But Four Things is number two at twenty to one,

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Speaker 2: Martin Scorsese Kills of the Flower Moon twenty two to one,

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Speaker 2: Jonathan Glazer for Zone of Interest thirty five to one,

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Speaker 2: and Justine treat for Anatomy of a Fall. Another good

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Speaker 2: movie was Is sixty five to one. So this is

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Speaker 2: another one where Oppenheimer's essentially a lock. So you're parlaying

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Speaker 2: these two and kind of taking it from there.

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Speaker 1: Is this the podcast? Where is this the part of

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Speaker 1: the podcast where you need to give your disclaimer about

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Speaker 1: your goos? Don't be fooled on Saturday night, you know,

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Speaker 1: don't be fooled by any crazy fifty to one steam.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, I thought Four Things was a

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Speaker 2: great movie, but I think the acting in that movie

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Speaker 2: Emma Stone, was even more impressive than the direction. And

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Speaker 2: you know, Oppenheimer, it like that's where Christopher Nolan really shine,

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Speaker 2: I think in his direction, and that's what really I

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Speaker 2: think made the movie, along with the acting.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't think we're gonna get any any up.

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Speaker 2: So that think a couple of years ago we did

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Speaker 2: have like a big, big favorite kind of take an

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Speaker 2: l out of nowhere, but that's generally rare, and I

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Speaker 2: don't see it happening with is how much.

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Speaker 1: Oppenheimer's also favored for Best Pictures.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, nothing to really do here except throw this

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Speaker 2: in a parlay.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, And and for me, this this parlay

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Speaker 1: that we're going to talk about, I'll go ahead and

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Speaker 1: do the other three that we're gonna include. So it

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Speaker 1: includes Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Cinematography,

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Speaker 1: best Score. They're all Oppenheimer. And I mean, the numbers

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Speaker 1: are crazy. They're they're minus five thousand to minus two thousand.

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Speaker 1: It's some pretty big numbers. I'm gonna put them together

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Speaker 1: for one hundred dollars wager to make thirty dollars. Let

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Speaker 1: me talk about each one of these. And you're like,

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Speaker 1: what why would you do that? Hey, listen, I bet

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Speaker 1: ww in college baseball, you gotta get comfortable with minus

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Speaker 1: five hundred minus one thousand bets. So I think let

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Speaker 1: me go ahead into each one of these. So for

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Speaker 1: Best Picture, you and I talked about it. Best Picture

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Speaker 1: is about total nominations. Do you have Editing and acting?

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Speaker 1: They have it all. Appy pulled every single expert and

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Speaker 1: editor vote on gold Derby. It's a slam dunk Best Director.

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Speaker 1: It's a direct correlation with the Directors Guild that awarded

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Speaker 1: it to Christopher Nolan just a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: So that one in the back and that one that

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Speaker 1: you were talking about. There's one year that the DGA did.

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Speaker 1: It might have been parasite where they did have a

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Speaker 1: Best Director that didn't win at the Oscars, So that

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Speaker 1: was the outlier. But Best Supporting Actor. Seasoned actors have

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Speaker 1: just been dominating this category. Troy Kotzer for Coda, Brad

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Speaker 1: Pitt for Once upon a Time in Hollywood, mahrschel Ali,

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Speaker 1: my friend from Chew Detective. We filmed scenes together. He's

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Speaker 1: won it twice. Sam Rockwell Christopher Plumber, so you know,

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Speaker 1: the Robert Downey Junior, the lowly shoe salesman of Lewis Strauss.

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Speaker 1: The transformation is dramatic. The story that he tells on

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Speaker 1: the screen for Oppenheimer is in a w from Oppenheimer's Stirring.

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Speaker 1: It's my favorite performance of the year. It's my favorite

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Speaker 1: performance of any actor in a long time. I've been

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Speaker 1: thinking about who's better. Best Cinematography. Oppi takes thirty eight

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Speaker 1: to forty editor expert picks from gold Derby and Hoyt

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Speaker 1: van Houtama just one best Cinematography for Oppenheimer at the

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Speaker 1: American Society of Cinematographers this past weekend, so that's in

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Speaker 1: the back best score. Oppi took thirty six and forty

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Speaker 1: votes from experts and editors over at gold Derby and

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Speaker 1: Ludvyn Gorenson is just on a tear right now. He

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Speaker 1: does the Mandalorians music, he did all the Black Panther

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Speaker 1: Creed and the reason he did this one is because

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Speaker 1: he did Tenant in twenty twenty for Nolan. Nolan met

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Speaker 1: up with him, gave him one instruction. I want Oppenheimer

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Speaker 1: to be narrated by a violin. A violin is the

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Speaker 1: most expressive instrument. I need the orchestra to go up

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Speaker 1: and down to show the emotions. Ludvyn Gorenson absolutely nailed this.

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Speaker 1: I'm putting those five together for a parlay. I'm not

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Speaker 1: putting in best Actor. Do you have one that you

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Speaker 1: would want to add, Maybe juice to pot up a

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Speaker 1: little bit better than one hundred to win thirty.

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Speaker 2: I think the safest one, if we're trying to stick

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Speaker 2: with Oppenheimer that you could add is probably film editing.

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Speaker 2: You know, that's one where Oppenheimer has twenty four the

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Speaker 2: twenty six gold Derby expert votes and all twelve of

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Speaker 2: the editor vote, so that is thirty six or thirty

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Speaker 2: eight overall. So that's another one. You know, it is

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Speaker 2: juiced up. I think it's minus twelve hundred, but it

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Speaker 2: looks pretty safe according to I mean, just you know,

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Speaker 2: watching the movie, I thought the editing was another thing.

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Speaker 2: It was a technical movie, but also gold Derby not

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Speaker 2: really whiffing when they you know, go ninety plus percent

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Speaker 2: for a technical award. So at least, you know, according

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Speaker 2: to history, they've been tracking for about a dozen years now,

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Speaker 2: so I think editing would It's another ugly one, but

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Speaker 2: I think that's the one you would probably want to add.

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Speaker 1: Do you know what the most amazing thing about Oppenheimer

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Speaker 1: and editing is how you made the atomic bomb only

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Speaker 1: the second act of the movie. It's not even the

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Speaker 1: apex of all the action. It's crazy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Like that was another part where I was like,

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Speaker 2: it caught me like not paying attention. I was like, wait,

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Speaker 2: did what what what happened? And then now and then

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Speaker 2: I was like, oh they're practice like it was.

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Speaker 1: It was just what a movie? Man?

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Speaker 2: But so so you got Yeah, so you're five. It's

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Speaker 2: about one hundred for thirty. You can add editing in,

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Speaker 2: you get it, get a little more. But that's really

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Speaker 2: all you're gonna be able to do with these with

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Speaker 2: these main categories that Appenheimer's just running away with. I mean,

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Speaker 2: and just there's you know, there's really nothing you could

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Speaker 2: no case you can make for any any of the

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Speaker 2: other you know, contenders in those categories. But I do

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Speaker 2: want to talk about the Best Actor category Ladies and

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Speaker 2: Gentlemen Academy Award winner Francis McDorman.

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Speaker 1: Okay, guys, sit up straight and at presentable.

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Speaker 2: I know you were thinking about putting Cillian Murphy, who

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Speaker 2: is the front runner at minus one thousand, into that parway,

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Speaker 2: but you ended up deciding against it. So and let

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Speaker 2: me just tell the listeners the other nominees. You got

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Speaker 2: Paul Giamatti and the Holdovers, he's five to one, Bradley Cooper.

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Speaker 1: And the nose is sixteen to one for Maestro. Coleman.

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Speaker 2: Domingo and Jeffrey Wright are long shots for Rustin and

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Speaker 2: American Fiction, respectively. But I know you like Giamatti and

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Speaker 2: that's kind of the reason he didn't feel comfortable with Murphy.

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Speaker 1: I do like Giamatti before I get into it with

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Speaker 1: both you and I. Jeffrey Wright lovers. We love Jeffrey. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: set come on back another year because this one was

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Speaker 1: tough this year. So the BAFTAs and the Best Picture

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Speaker 1: nomination are generally the precursors to winning this award, but

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Speaker 1: both Oppy and Holdovers are up for Best Picture. Murphy

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Speaker 1: took home the BAFTA and so that is really a

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Speaker 1: big one. But you know, Austin Butler took home the

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Speaker 1: Bafta last year and then Brendan Fraser won with the Whale.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that was a tough wager to stick with

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Speaker 1: last year because we really thought Austin Butler was the

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Speaker 1: one that was gonna, you know, cash this big ticket.

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Speaker 1: And the whale held on this category is even wilder.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, there were really high odds on

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Speaker 1: Chadwick Boseman, but the baf TO winner, Anthony Hopkins cashed

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Speaker 1: in for seven to one for the father. So this

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Speaker 1: is a two man race. Don't even read any of

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Speaker 1: the I don't read Bradley Cooper, sorry, Jeffrey Wright, and

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Speaker 1: no Coleman Domingo. It's a two man race between Giamanni

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Speaker 1: and Murphy. They both won the Golden Globe separate categories.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're both generating almost a near equal amount

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Speaker 1: of editors and expert picks at gold Derby. That's what

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Speaker 1: shocked me. Fifty one percent for Murphy, forty eight point

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Speaker 1: six percent for Gamani. The true odds on this should

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Speaker 1: be minus one oh five for Murphy and plus one

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Speaker 1: zero five for Giamani. And I was sitting there staring

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Speaker 1: at this. How many? And then you go to the

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Speaker 1: user votes, you go to the top twenty four votes,

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Speaker 1: you go everywhere, and this is not a minus one

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Speaker 1: thousand win for Murphy whatsoever. Now may he may end

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Speaker 1: up winning this, but there are are a number of

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Speaker 1: experts and editors that actually had him third and fourth

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Speaker 1: and push Jeffrey right up to the top. That hurts

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Speaker 1: because remember how Oscar's voting goes. You get points for

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Speaker 1: where you place in the picks. Right, if you're fifth,

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Speaker 1: You're not gonna get any points whatsoever. What is a

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Speaker 1: top three. I mean, this is a whole system of

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Speaker 1: where you place equals points. And if people are taking

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Speaker 1: Murphy completely out of this and popping Jeffrey right up,

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Speaker 1: that is an advantage for Giamani. Now do I think

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Speaker 1: Giamani can win? It's tough with the BAFTA going to Murphy,

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Speaker 1: I think this is a lot closer. I'm taking Gamni

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Speaker 1: five to one just a little bit. I would definitely

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Speaker 1: bet that if you're putting Murphy in your Oppenheimer parlay,

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Speaker 1: but as a standalone, bet Giamani five to one. That

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Speaker 1: has value for me all the way to two to one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know, the BAFTA has predicted ten of

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Speaker 2: the last twelve, but as you mentioned, last year, it

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Speaker 2: did not you know, Fraser was nominated, did not win.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, this is not a short thing. And that

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Speaker 2: that that kind of caught me by surprise too. I

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Speaker 2: know Giamani, I'm he was actual a front runner at

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Speaker 2: one part of the Oscar season. You know, the minute

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Speaker 2: nominations come out. I like to look at the gold

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Speaker 2: Derby odds and kind of track them from there, and

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Speaker 2: he was definitely more like fifty to fifty before Oppenheimer

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Speaker 2: just started to run away with you know, not just

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Speaker 2: picture but everything else. Uh so some of it, you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll see. This is also one I'm going to kind

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Speaker 2: of track. I think it's you know, for everyone out there,

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Speaker 2: Golderby dot com, it's it's a it's a site where

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Speaker 2: if we haven't explained already, it's essentially the sharps of

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Speaker 2: award betting, all type of awards, Grammy Oscar, the guilds,

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Speaker 2: whatever you want, and you know, you have the experts,

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Speaker 2: you have the editors, they track it. And yeah, Giamatti

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Speaker 2: he is essentially right now in second place, but a

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Speaker 2: firm second place.

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Speaker 1: And you like to see if you're if you're.

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Speaker 2: Putting, you know, betting on these minus one thousand pluses

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Speaker 2: even any anything over I would say like minus two hundred.

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Speaker 2: You want to see almost a unanimous pick by gold Derby,

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Speaker 2: and that is not what we have. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: think it's Giamatti or nothing.

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Speaker 1: It is interesting.

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Speaker 2: There's one expert that's holding out with Jeffrey, right though,

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I know maybe maybe yeah, Hey, if you're

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Speaker 2: if you're picking this category anyway, no matter who you're picking,

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Speaker 2: you might you might as well head with uh right,

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Speaker 2: I mean it's essentially free almost to do it.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: He's his odds are plus eight thousand or eighty to one. Hey,

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Speaker 2: throw a dollar or so on it.

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Speaker 1: He shouldn't be in case, yes, exactly the worst odds. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean it's a stack category.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Brawley Cooper's been trying, just trying

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Speaker 2: to get that Oscar and and Coleman Domingo is great,

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Speaker 2: you know, and so it is a stack category.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Murphy is He's likely to win, but not

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Speaker 1: as likely as his odds suggest. So yeah, I'm with

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Speaker 1: you on Giamatti. Actress Actresses. The nominees for Performance by

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Speaker 1: an Actress and Leading Role are.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this one's been interesting so well. We have

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Speaker 2: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon the favorite at

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Speaker 2: minus two twenty five. Emma Stone for Poor Things has

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Speaker 2: been dropping. She's plus one fifty.

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Speaker 1: Sandra Holler is.

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Speaker 2: Thirty five to one for Anatomy of a Fall. Those

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Speaker 2: are the three. Kerry Mulligan and Maestro and Annette Betting

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Speaker 2: in Nad are.

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Speaker 1: The other two.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's a three person race. Really a

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Speaker 2: two person race Gladstone and Stone. But I do think

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Speaker 2: Huller's interesting. But talk to me about Emma Stone first,

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Speaker 2: because I already full disclosure, I already bet Emma Stone,

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Speaker 2: which she was like yeah, like around the same number

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Speaker 2: plus one fifty. So I'm kind of disappointed to see

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Speaker 2: her lose some steam here. I call her the best

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Speaker 2: actress alive. I've been calling her at for last like

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Speaker 2: six seven years. But what do you think about her

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Speaker 2: and poor things going up against Lily?

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Speaker 1: I love her. Here, I would go back to the

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Speaker 1: I mean, it doesn't matter what category you're going to

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Speaker 1: go into, you're going to be able to playing this mathematically.

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Speaker 1: You're going to be able to explain this from an

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Speaker 1: awards perspective. And you're right, this category is wild. Olivia

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Speaker 1: Coleman twenty eighteen huge, huge upset victory. We saw Cinthriya

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Speaker 1: Rivo in twenty nineteen go from fifty to one down

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Speaker 1: to I think sixteen to one, but they didn't win.

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Speaker 1: And Michelle Yell last year was not the favorite Kate

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Speaker 1: Blanchett was for tar. So I mean, this is the

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Speaker 1: fourth straight year that the SAgs and BAFTAs have disagreed

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Speaker 1: on who is going to win this award, so underdog

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Speaker 1: Paradise right now, Lily Gladstone is trying to set a

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Speaker 1: precedence here. She's the first Native American nominated for this award.

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Speaker 1: She was not nominated for the BAFTA, which was baffling

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Speaker 1: to a lot of people. She cleaned up plenty of

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Speaker 1: other awards at the SAG, primarily Emma Stone, took home

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Speaker 1: the baf TO two weeks ago. She dominates and gold

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Speaker 1: Derby user votes Stone is neck and neck with Gladstone

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Speaker 1: and projected odds from experts and editors. But as a voter,

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Speaker 1: are you going to go with a historic win for

359
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Speaker 1: Lily Gladstone and where's killer is gonna get their shot?

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Speaker 1: And that I don't know. That's another subject? Or you're

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Speaker 1: gonna give it to Stone for her second ward. She's

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Speaker 1: already won this for law La Land. So my case

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Speaker 1: is the numbers say Stone should be about minus one

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Speaker 1: ten or maybe plus one ten, not one fifty. I

365
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Speaker 1: would bet this to plus one twenty on Emma Stone.

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Speaker 1: I think that she's going to win this. Not being

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Speaker 1: included in the Baptist for Gladstone, I think is a

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Speaker 1: monster signal, A blaring red signal that there's an upset coming. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: First of all, let me just say this, Emma Stone,

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Speaker 2: if you're just like my personal opinion, which matters zero zilch.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a voter obviously, but Emma Stone.

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Speaker 2: Was the best actress of these five, like she had

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Speaker 2: the best performance.

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Speaker 1: I think, hands down, I've already bet on her totally.

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Speaker 2: With you, I think it's a lot more of a

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Speaker 2: toss up between her and Gladstone. It's just you know, yeah,

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Speaker 2: have that recenc bias right with the Sag coming last,

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Speaker 2: and that is big because you know, there is such

379
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 2: such a thing as momentum sometimes to thievese Awards and whatnot.

380
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,879
Speaker 2: But you know, Gladstone is vulnerable for I think a

381
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Speaker 2: couple of reasons, and I think even Stone could be vulnerable.

382
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Speaker 1: And that's all I want to talk about.

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Speaker 2: Sandra Holler, because again, if you're picking the upset already

384
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Speaker 2: with Emma Stone, Sandra Hller is thirty five to one.

385
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,560
Speaker 2: You might as well throw a couple of dollars on

386
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:29,159
Speaker 2: that as well. Because despite Gladstone winning the SAG and

387
00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:31,959
Speaker 2: Stone winning the Bathta and the Critics' Choice, and they

388
00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:36,199
Speaker 2: both won globes, pallad is still getting eight percent of

389
00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 2: the gold Derby experts and eight percent of the gold

390
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: Derby editors, so her odds they're thirty five to one.

391
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 2: Those odds correspond to more like plus eleven fifty, so

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Speaker 2: she's massively undervalued. And then Gladstone's screen time. That's another thing.

393
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Speaker 2: It's not just the Bastis snuff, but the last ten

394
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,720
Speaker 2: Best Actress recipients averaged an hour and fifteen minutes of

395
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Speaker 2: screen time, and they were on screen for sixty five

396
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 2: percent of their films on average, glad Stone just fifty

397
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 2: six minutes and on screen just twenty seven percent of

398
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Speaker 2: the movie. That's something where it could be a subconscious bias,

399
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 2: you know, with these kind of things where you know

400
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 2: a lot of people liked it, but now you open

401
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 2: it to a larger you know, all the voting bodies,

402
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: not just the you know, the sag and.

403
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Speaker 1: You know the people who judge acting.

404
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Speaker 2: And I think those biases could hurt her and then Stone.

405
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 2: Obviously I want her to win, but I do think

406
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Speaker 2: she's a little bit vulnerable because Francis McDormand, who is

407
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 2: the last kind of out of nowhere h you know,

408
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,240
Speaker 2: underdog to win a couple of years ago, she shamed

409
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 2: the whole academy. She was like, stop kicking, you know,

410
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 2: give it to somebody new. Stop picking us who have

411
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,119
Speaker 2: already been awarded, Like, there's so many great actresses. So

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Speaker 2: I wonder if that plays into this at all, with

413
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Speaker 2: Stone already having a win.

414
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 1: So this is Howard's obvious first nomination. I think she

415
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:02,640
Speaker 1: was better than Gladstone too, by the way.

416
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Speaker 2: I think I would rank them Stone, Huller Gladstone third.

417
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 1: Yeah. Right, So it's not just Killers as a depressive movie,

418
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 1: but like, what's the big moving moment that she had

419
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Speaker 1: the movie? She's the one in her family that didn't die.

420
00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 1: Like it just it was not a moving performance or

421
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: a great technical job. I didn't feel her carry the

422
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,240
Speaker 1: movie at all. I didn't. I wasn't a big fan

423
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: of the movie.

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Speaker 2: Like I feel like at this point, like these these

425
00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 2: Corsese movies, they're just so long, and he's just he's

426
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Speaker 2: just like I feel like every time he makes a movie,

427
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Speaker 2: and he's one of my favorite directors of all time, obviously,

428
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 2: but every time he makes a movie, I like it

429
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 2: less or less. Like I just feel like I feel

430
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 2: like he's going down here. He's doing what he wants

431
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,920
Speaker 2: and he deserves it. He deserves it. Did not think

432
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 2: Kills of the Flower Moon was a great movie that

433
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 2: could also hurt Lillie Gladstone. So you know there was

434
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 2: a time not to ups until that saguine. It was

435
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,760
Speaker 2: pretty much fifty to fifty. Now I think now she's

436
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 2: up to minus what two twenty five that's mostly recentcy biased,

437
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: So I would definitely pick her to get upset Emma

438
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 2: Stone and throw a couple of dollars on Sandra Huller

439
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: as well.

440
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 1: Remember twenty twenty one.

441
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: In the last five years, twenty twenty one McDormand two

442
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 2: percent combined gold Derby editor and experts two percent. That's

443
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 2: essentially one vote twenty nineteen when Coleman won for the

444
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 2: favorite zero percent of gold Derby editors and experts.

445
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 1: So you know.

446
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 2: Howard's actually got eight. So she's she's way ahead of

447
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,280
Speaker 2: the curve for this long shot. So I know we

448
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: did a hit with a revo, but it still happened

449
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 2: twice in the last five years where somebody just comes

450
00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 2: out of nowhere that even the people who do this

451
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 2: for a living are just not did not.

452
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: See it coming. Right. Let me ask you a question, Chris,

453
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 1: because timing is everything when you're purchasing in the market.

454
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 1: It doesn't matter if it's football for you and me,

455
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,199
Speaker 1: or if it's the Oscars or it's wrestling. Right, do

456
00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 1: we think Huller's number will have better value the closer

457
00:24:00,680 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 1: we get to showtime? Could it get up to forty?

458
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:04,240
Speaker 1: Could it get up to fifty to one with so

459
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: much money because money is what's moving the odds on

460
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 1: the boards with money coming in on Stone and Gladstone.

461
00:24:09,119 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 1: Do you think maybe Saturday night Sunday morning, we uh

462
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 1: shouldn't that's that's maybe the good timing for Huller. Or

463
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,480
Speaker 1: since you and I may be stoking a fire here,

464
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: should we get it in as fast as possible on

465
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:18,640
Speaker 1: thirty five?

466
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I already max better everywhere, so I don't

467
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 2: think they're gonna let me back anymore. But also I

468
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 2: don't know how many people are going this in depth

469
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,800
Speaker 2: on their Oscars betting podcast, So even us just saying this,

470
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 2: you know, she might come down a little bit like

471
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 2: I've seen it all over it, but I've seen her

472
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,239
Speaker 2: as well as like plus eighteen hundred. Yeah, I mean,

473
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: anytime you're talking about a long shot in a five

474
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 2: man race that's you know, thirty five to one, anything.

475
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 1: In you know, over plus one thousand.

476
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: I think you just take it when you can, Like

477
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 2: I don't think you look for timing, and if you

478
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: end up seeing it somewhere else and you don't and

479
00:24:53,560 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: you haven't maxed it yet, yeah fine, go ahead.

480
00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, I I would take it. Now, let's go

481
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 1: back and give the golden rule of Academy Awards betting.

482
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 1: Nobody knows who's winning these things. Okay, if you see

483
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,000
Speaker 1: steam in the market, it's simply because money. It's simply

484
00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:12,120
Speaker 1: because people just flew in, hit a number and took off.

485
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 1: They have no clue what's in the envelope. Yeah, exactly.

486
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: And you know they're gonna be people like they're gonna

487
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,719
Speaker 2: be people with their like with their models and this

488
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 2: and that. Like I would say this too. You know,

489
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 2: we're kind of the way we do it. I think

490
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 2: it's like an art and a science. Like we we

491
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: definitely look at gold Derby and we look at a

492
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:29,040
Speaker 2: lot of the precursors.

493
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 1: But like when you see it.

494
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: Like a long shot, for example, even if like let's

495
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,320
Speaker 2: say Huller wasn't eight percent even if she was just

496
00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 2: one percent. The fact, as long as they're picked by

497
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 2: at least one like expert or or you know, ex

498
00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 2: editor on gold Derby, like as long as there's a chance.

499
00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: That's when I think you want to pounce. Like you

500
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 2: can't get into all the like implied odds with some

501
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: of these long shots. When when you're talking about like

502
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: two more even favorites or you know, shorter dogs, then

503
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 2: you can kind I look at it a little more mathematically.

504
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: But I've seen I've been due to this for like

505
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 2: six seven years now, and I can't count the number

506
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 2: of times where you know, I've seen long shot gets

507
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,399
Speaker 2: like one vote on gold Derby as opposed to zero

508
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: and it ends up winning. And like you know, you

509
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: might look at the imply odds and say, well, I

510
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 2: need to be getting plus fifteen hundred and it's only

511
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 2: plus one thousand, Like if it's a long shot and

512
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:24,880
Speaker 2: you think it has a shot, like there's only five

513
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,640
Speaker 2: people in the category, like make that bet. So that's

514
00:26:28,760 --> 00:26:31,719
Speaker 2: that's all I'm saying with these When you're getting like

515
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 2: a long shot like Huller, it's essentially a free hedge.

516
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,879
Speaker 2: If you're already predicting an upset of Gladstone with Stone.

517
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 2: So we like Stone, like that, we like we like Puller.

518
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 2: This podcast is proudly presented by Bett MGM. Used Bonus

519
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: Code Action act iown when signing up to get one

520
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty eight dollars in bonus bets when you

521
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 2: bet five dollars for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

522
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

523
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 2: Terms and conditions of probably must be twenty one year older.

524
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 2: Gam linga problem Paul one eight hundred gambler. Let's go

525
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: to supporting actress. This one is one. We're just gonna

526
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 2: go right by Devine Joy Randolph. She killed it in

527
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: the Holdover. She's minus thirty five hundred. I mean, I

528
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 2: haven't heard anything about any of these other nominees. Danielle

529
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 2: Brooks for the Color Purple at sixteen to one, em

530
00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 2: what we Blant for Oppenheimer at twenty to one America.

531
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 1: Ferreira gave that speech in Barbie.

532
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: She's twenty to one and Jody Foster is thirty five

533
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 2: to one. But I mean Divine is you know, she's

534
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 2: been cleaning up, and I don't really see anything to

535
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 2: do here, So we're not we're not gonna talk about that.

536
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 2: We're just gonna go right into the Screenplay Awards, which are,

537
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: as they usually are, kind of a little bit up

538
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 2: for grabs. I think Adapted Screenplay, let's go with that.

539
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 2: First America Fiction is the favorite at minus two fifty.

540
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 2: Oppenheimer is two to one, Barbie's five to one, Four

541
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 2: Things is twenty to one, and The Zone of Interest,

542
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: which is the front runner for Best International Feature and

543
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 2: is also a Best Picture nominee, that is forty to one.

544
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: This is pretty a lot of competition here because Barbie

545
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: is original Screenplay and a lot of other awards shows,

546
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 2: but because it's you know, Barbie is a you know,

547
00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,360
Speaker 2: trademark or whatever you call it entity. Even though it's

548
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 2: not technically in an adaptation of a book or anything,

549
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 2: it still goes in this category.

550
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 1: So she wasn't just thought of on the fly in

551
00:28:38,440 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 1: this movie, right, or she's been around forever.

552
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so I like Barbie in this one because

553
00:28:43,840 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: again I thought it was I'll say, I enjoyed it

554
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 2: the most out of all those Best Picture nominees, did

555
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: not expect to. And American Fiction is kind of at

556
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: golder be a ten year's favorite, barely over fifty percent

557
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 2: of the vote, Oppenheimer's getting about a quarter, and Barbie

558
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 2: is getting the rest, so.

559
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,680
Speaker 1: All three of them have a shot to win. Oppenheimer.

560
00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 2: I kind of leaning toward Oppenheimer until I saw Barbie,

561
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: and but now I definitely think one of those two

562
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 2: is going to upset American Fiction because although I liked

563
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: American Fiction, I just think Oppenheimer, but especially Barbie and

564
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: even poor Things, to be honest with you, it was

565
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 2: a lot more memorable screenplay wise. So when I look

566
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: at Barbie, I'm saying I'm seeing American Fiction did not

567
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 2: really beat Barbie, because again, Barbie was an original in

568
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 2: a lot of the precursors and a lot of the

569
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: other smaller awards ceremonies. So American fiction has head to

570
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 2: head winds, has a lot more head to head wins

571
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: against Oppenheimer, but not Barbie. So that's what kind of

572
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 2: pushes me toward Barbie over Oppenheimer. And you're getting it

573
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 2: at five to one, so That's where I'm going with

574
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: this one.

575
00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: I think another thing, too, Chris, is the voting base

576
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: over the last couple of years has increased dramatically for

577
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 1: the for it, and I would I wouldn't say like

578
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: a seasoned veteran of a voter is thinking this way,

579
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:17,479
Speaker 1: but I would picture that a lot of people voting

580
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 1: are like, well, I haven't voted for Barbie yet. This

581
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: would be a great place to take them. Now there's

582
00:30:23,040 --> 00:30:25,080
Speaker 1: no history of them being here, they haven't competed against

583
00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 1: because they were not in this category and other awards ceremonies.

584
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 1: But at some point Barbie's gonna get hers. I think

585
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: it's a great it's a great number. You have a

586
00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: betting limit on this one, how far you'd go down to?

587
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 2: I would go down to two to one on this

588
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 2: one because I think, like, honestly, I think it's a

589
00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: lot closer to even between the three, Like I think

590
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 2: each of them is like around thirty three, thirty three,

591
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: thirty three. So again, like when with these longer shots,

592
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: like I'm like, this is this, this is the works

593
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 2: show has happened once a year, like we have twelve

594
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: in gold Derby that we've tracked, but it's hard to

595
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 2: get like an say like this is an exact limit,

596
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 2: So I would just say, hey, two to one equals

597
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 2: thirty three percent. Chance, that's as low as i'd go,

598
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 2: because I think it's like at like at the at

599
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: the worst it is, you know, a one to three shot,

600
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 2: so uh yeah, that's that's where I go. But five

601
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 2: to one, so it's probably not going to move that much,

602
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,680
Speaker 2: So your you should be good getting betting it up

603
00:31:18,720 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 2: until Sunday, Like I doubt it goes anywhere lower than

604
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: maybe like plus three hundred. I would say, I think

605
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: that's probably the lowest it would go.

606
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: But you do like a favorite in the original screenplay

607
00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: where we thought Barbie would be put in the first place.

608
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: Right right right, And this is so listen, favorites are

609
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: you know, not something I'd do a ton of with these,

610
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 2: but especially closer to the awards, A lot of times

611
00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: you see one that was kind of the favorite pull

612
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 2: away in gold Derby, and a lot more experts and

613
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 2: editors start locking it in. And when I look at

614
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 2: this original screenplay category, it's a lot weaker. You have

615
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: anatomy of a fall as the favorite at minus two

616
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 2: eighty the Holdovers is the top contender two to one,

617
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 2: Past Lives twelve to one, Maestro forty to one, and

618
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 2: May December fifty to one. Now at gold Derby, you

619
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 2: have over eighty percent picking anatomy of a fall, So

620
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 2: that's closer to like a minus four hundred odds. So

621
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 2: this is one where if you don't want to go

622
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 2: crazy with the Appenheimer parlay, with all the you know,

623
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: four figure juice, you probably are getting some decent values

624
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:28,239
Speaker 2: throwing anatomy of a fall into a parlay. And then

625
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 2: you could, you know, if you combine it with with

626
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: with a plus money back, now now you're in a

627
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: much better spot. But I just I liked the movie.

628
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 2: I thought it was a very good screenplay. I thought,

629
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 2: I mean, I thought Hullward was actually great acting it

630
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 2: out as well. But just the way it kind of

631
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 2: played out, and the twist and how the kid, you know,

632
00:32:47,920 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 2: the kid without giving it away, kind of figured some

633
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: things out as the movie progresses, and it just it

634
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 2: was a very good screenplay and it you know, it

635
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: won at the Globes one at the Bath to beat

636
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 2: the Holdovers and pass Lives in the ladder. It went

637
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: against a stronger overall lineup at the globes. It beat Oppenheimer,

638
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 2: it beat Barbie, it'd be Poor Things, it be Killers

639
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 2: of the Flower Moon, and it beat pass Lives. So

640
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 2: I mean it checks all the boxes. It's showing value

641
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 2: by the numbers on gold Derby. So yeah, I would

642
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: bet Anatomy of a Fall up to minus four hundred.

643
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: Good good parlay piece.

644
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: If you're not trying to go with those crazy short

645
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 2: Oppenheimer odds, I'm.

646
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: Gonna join you, sir. I believe I just got limited

647
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:34,479
Speaker 1: to three hundred dollars. We'll see if I can hit

648
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 1: it on another book after the pod.

649
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to best visual effects. Godzilla minus

650
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:46,880
Speaker 2: one is a short favorite at minus one twenty five.

651
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 2: You have The Creator at even money. You have Napoleon

652
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,239
Speaker 2: at nine to one, Guardians of the Galaxy Volume three

653
00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 2: also nine to one, and Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part

654
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 2: one at thirty five to one.

655
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 1: So this is the one where.

656
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 2: I mean I was all over the place. I can

657
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 2: make a case for pretty much all five of these,

658
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 2: so I know you have you've kind of narrowed down

659
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 2: a little more, so talk to me.

660
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 1: Uh United did not talk pre pre pod, so I'm

661
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 1: interested to hear what you have to say, because this

662
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: one I was just like sitting back, like, where is

663
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 1: this number coming from? Godzilla minus one minus one fifty?

664
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,320
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that. So the Visual Effects Awards, the

665
00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 1: VEES Award Show saw the Creator take five of the

666
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: fourteen categories, while Guardians won two of the awards. Godzilla

667
00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: minus one didn't just win anything at VS. They were

668
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: only nominated in a single category, which was Outstanding Animated Character,

669
00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 1: where Rocket the raccoon from Guardians of the Galaxy beat

670
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,360
Speaker 1: Godzilla heads up in a fight for the award. So

671
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: you know, my question is is how is there all

672
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: this stem on Godzilla minus one with your character Godzilla

673
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 1: that lost at the Visual Effects Award Show against Rocket

674
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: from Guardians of the Galaxy and now seeing Guardians of

675
00:35:05,320 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: the Galaxy at twelve to one in this award. So

676
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: you know, I really did probably longer than I should

677
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 1: have research on visual effects. And if you go to

678
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,360
Speaker 1: gold Derby, it says the same thing. Guardians of the

679
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: Galaxy twenty one of forty Editors and Experts the Creator,

680
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: which I love that movie with John David Washington twelve

681
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: of forty. That was thirty percent, so they're getting all

682
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: the votes and Godzilla minus one isn't getting any. So,

683
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: you know, only half the winners of Visual Effects and

684
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: Photo Real Feature go on from Ves to win the Oscars.

685
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: So with the Creator winning the award, which they did,

686
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: about half of those translate to Oscar victory. So that's

687
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: one thing against Godzilla minus one. After that, there's recent

688
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: history of two straight that's for the Creator, two Avatar,

689
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, one Both twenty twenty one, Dune. But

690
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: before that, it's a little hit and miss as to

691
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: where you know TenneT one at the Oscars, Midnight Sky

692
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: one at the Lion King versus nineteen seventeen? Did you

693
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 1: see that? Chris? I got nineteen seventeen in the podcast

694
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 1: to get it every year, So it's really kind of

695
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:11,839
Speaker 1: hit or miss whether the Visual Effects Award show translates

696
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 1: to the Oscars. But I think the basic fact that

697
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 1: I still can't get over is Godzilla was nominated just

698
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 1: in one category. It was for Godzilla himself and he

699
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: lost against a Raccoon and Guardians of the Galaxy that

700
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 1: had like a two hundred and fifty million dollar budget.

701
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 1: I couldn't figure it out. And when you go to

702
00:36:29,320 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 1: gold Derby and you look at the experts and all

703
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: of that. It doesn't even make sense, So you ask,

704
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 1: why is this surging so much? The first Japanese film

705
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 1: nominated for visuals the first time ever Godzilla. It's a

706
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 1: first time he's ever been a part of the Academy

707
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 1: nominated for anything. The director, and he was also over

708
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 1: visual effects. Takashi Yamazaki. He's long been in the Japanese

709
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 1: film industry, and you know, he was nominated for a

710
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 1: whole bunch of things before this film. But now this

711
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 1: year he's finally starting to pull in some victories in Chicago, Florida,

712
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, San Diego, Seattle, and the Utah Film Critics Awards.

713
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: It's a very parasite feeling for me. There isn't a

714
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 1: prior victory here for us to base this on and

715
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 1: say this is why they're minus one fifty. There isn't

716
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 1: experts and editors saying this should be minus one fifty.

717
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: And if you remember Parasite, this director came out of

718
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 1: nowhere and then told us all he's gonna drink a

719
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,280
Speaker 1: bunch of beer, and then his movie won Best Picture,

720
00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: and there was nothing that led up nothing statistical or

721
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: mathematical that said that that should have happened. I see

722
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 1: that same steam happening here. I'm not falling into it.

723
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take The Creator for a half unit bed

724
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five because they won the Vees Awards.

725
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna take Guardians of the Galaxy at twelve

726
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 1: to one for a half unit because Rocket be Godzilla

727
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,120
Speaker 1: straight up. Now, if you've got some reason Godzilla minus

728
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: one is steaming, I'm dying to hear it. Mean, so

729
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 1: this again, this category is really tough for me.

730
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 2: I could make a case for pretty much five nominees,

731
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 2: which is why I ended up not betting it. But

732
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 2: I was kind of scratching my head too. But the

733
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 2: more I kind of looked into Godzilla minus one, I

734
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 2: think the reason is because of like they essentially this

735
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: movie was just a visual effects showcase. I think there

736
00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 2: was a crew of like thirty five people working on it.

737
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 2: I think a quarter of the film's budget went to VFX.

738
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 2: I mean it was just they essentially made this film

739
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 2: to showcase the VFX. So it could be something where

740
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 2: I mean, me and you and I just aren't privy

741
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,719
Speaker 2: to like, you know, the technical what you know, what

742
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: these voters are kind of looking at that. You know,

743
00:38:41,120 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 2: maybe to a layman it doesn't make sense, but that's

744
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:46,120
Speaker 2: the only thing I could think of, because I was

745
00:38:46,200 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 2: kind of scratching my too. But yeah, gold Derby, I

746
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,279
Speaker 2: mean they're they're behind.

747
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 1: It as well.

748
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 2: You know, I was thinking Guardians of the Galaxy would

749
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 2: at least get something for beating it in the Vees Awards,

750
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 2: but that's been a kind of a hit or like

751
00:39:00,400 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: you said, uh, And then the one thing I will say,

752
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: so the gold Derby editors have been a lot better

753
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 2: than the experts at this award. If you just go

754
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 2: back the editors when there's been an upset, the editors

755
00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 2: have had it and the experts have not. And it's

756
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 2: like one of the few categories where this is just

757
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 2: a massive difference between editors and experts. And the editors

758
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 2: at gold Derby they have the Zilli minus one, they

759
00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 2: have the Creator and then the only one the only other.

760
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: Film getting votes is Napoleon.

761
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 2: So like, I don't, like, I don't even know what

762
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: by the way, yeah, like I.

763
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:43,840
Speaker 1: Don't know, Yeah I didn't I didn't see it. So

764
00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 1: disclosure side, let me let me give you the whole plot.

765
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: Joaquin Phoenix has sex for eight seconds and he finishes.

766
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: That's it. That's the whole movie. That's the only thing

767
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,959
Speaker 1: worth watching. All Right, No more Napoleon talk on this pod. Wow. Okay, yeah,

768
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: so so what are we doing? We do We're going

769
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: with the Creator? Is that that? That's where love Creator

770
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: love John David why the plot of the movie was fantastic,

771
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 1: the everything about the screenplay, everything about the cinematography being

772
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: in Southeast Asia, the Creator, and definitely the robots. I

773
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 1: almost call them silos because I'm a Battlestar Galactica nerd.

774
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it was just it was beautiful and I

775
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 1: read what they did with Rocket and Guardians. I just again,

776
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: I go back to, how does a larger voting base

777
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 1: that doesn't watch Japanese films, that doesn't know anything about

778
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 1: this do they just say, oh, yeah, Godzilla, we're taking it.

779
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: I just the stem is so and you're right, there's

780
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 1: an editor out there that loves Godzilla minus one and

781
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:39,680
Speaker 1: you said, if there's one, there's a chance, but minus

782
00:40:39,719 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 1: one fifty that's tough for me to swallow.

783
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, It's it's like, this is like, yeah, I'm just

784
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: gonna be rooting for you on the Creator because I

785
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,759
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know what to do with this category,

786
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,719
Speaker 2: but I think the Creator is probably the most likely

787
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: wanted to upset, if you can even call it that. Yeah, okay,

788
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 2: let's go to another one of these visual categories.

789
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:04,439
Speaker 1: That's Makeup and Hairstyling.

790
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: Maestro's the favorite at minus one seventy five, then Poor

791
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: Things at plus one twenty five, and then three long shots.

792
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 2: You have Society at the snow at sixteen to one,

793
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: Oppenheimer twenty to one, and Golda at thirty five to one.

794
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 2: I like Poor Things here. Now, gold Derby is actually

795
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,400
Speaker 2: split on this award. Seventy six percent of the experts

796
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 2: like Maestro the favorite, but sixty seven percent of the

797
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: editors are picking Poor Things.

798
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 1: And listen, I don't buy the whole nose.

799
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 2: Controversy as the prosthetic nose that Cooper wore as a

800
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 2: reason to fade Maestro. It's still won multiple awards at

801
00:41:42,000 --> 00:41:47,760
Speaker 2: the Makeup and Hairstyling Guild, but the gold Derby Expert

802
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 2: Top Choice has been upset three times in the last

803
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,280
Speaker 2: eleven years, so you know, over a quarter of the time,

804
00:41:54,840 --> 00:41:57,279
Speaker 2: including last year, with Elvis getting.

805
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: Upset by the whale.

806
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 2: And this is the fifth nomination for I don't even

807
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 2: know how to pronounce this. Hope I'm not getting wrong.

808
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 2: But Kazu here who who, He's already won twice, whereas

809
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 2: Nadia Stacey this is our third domination, she's still looking.

810
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 1: For her first win.

811
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 2: I think that the editors are onto something here with

812
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 2: two thirds of them picking poor Things, So I would

813
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 2: bet this down to even money. I think Poor Things

814
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 2: in Maestro are essentially fifty to fifty here. And if

815
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 2: I'm just like, don't like looking at it, you know,

816
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,439
Speaker 2: from my personal opinion, I think you know poor things

817
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 2: visually and that that whatever the father like, he what

818
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:43,480
Speaker 2: he did to his face, and like how it like

819
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 2: it just looked amazing, like even compared to to Bradley

820
00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 2: Cooper's nose. So I just I just think poor things

821
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 2: look better. The numbers back it up. So give me

822
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,800
Speaker 2: Poor Things plus one twenty five for makeup and hairstyle.

823
00:42:57,960 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 1: Poor Things looks and feels like Edward says her hands.

824
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,880
Speaker 1: And the work that was done in makeup and hairstyle

825
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 1: for that movie got them an Academy Award. I believe

826
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:11,359
Speaker 1: it lost to Dick Tracy, which in its own right

827
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,759
Speaker 1: for hairt makeup and hairstyle. I mean, we're talking about

828
00:43:13,760 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: powerhouses from makeup and hairstyle. So love it, love the pick.

829
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna write it with you.

830
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 2: Let's go to a couple of the audio categories, will

831
00:43:23,280 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: do sound and song will start with sound. This one

832
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: I was to Oppenheimer here, not necessarily one of the

833
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 2: longer I mean, one of the shorter odds for Oppenheimer,

834
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 2: but it's minus two twenty five, so it's in a

835
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 2: spot where another one you could probably throw in a parlay,

836
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,160
Speaker 2: and I think it has value. The top contender a

837
00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:45,400
Speaker 2: zone of interest that plus one fifty. Then you have

838
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 2: Maistro at sixteen to one, the Creator at thirty five

839
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,439
Speaker 2: to one, in Mission Impossible at thirty five to one.

840
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:54,719
Speaker 2: Now about eighty percent of gol Derby is picking Oppenheimer.

841
00:43:54,760 --> 00:43:57,840
Speaker 2: So again that's pose sort of like minus four hundred.

842
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 2: The zone of interest is getting the rest.

843
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 1: Of the votes.

844
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 2: And you know that very good film, but we know

845
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 2: it's gonna get awarded for International Feature. But I mean,

846
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 2: come on, you're talking about the you know, the this

847
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,080
Speaker 2: this bomb, You're talking like this this is a this

848
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: is a Oppenheimer Award.

849
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: All the way, so I'm not scared of the juice here.

850
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 2: And again shown value based on gold Derby be up

851
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 2: to around minus four hundred, so I'll take it at

852
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 2: minus to twenty five all day. It's actually, yeah, minus

853
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 2: two twenty five old day.

854
00:44:30,320 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: Not to get too technical, because if this was two

855
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: categories a couple of years ago, if this was if

856
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: this was sound mixing, I think it'd be a slam

857
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 1: dunk on Oppenheimer, which is really I think going to

858
00:44:40,800 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: carry the water. The sound by itself was things you've

859
00:44:46,040 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: never heard before. That intrigue. Now I know you didn't

860
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:50,799
Speaker 1: get to see in the theater, right, but the molecules

861
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,920
Speaker 1: dancing around, the atoms, splitting the fission stuff, and then

862
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:56,560
Speaker 1: the bomb dropping itself, but then like three minutes later

863
00:44:56,600 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: the sound wave finally hitting from a perspective in your ears.

864
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:03,919
Speaker 1: I think it is as close as you can get

865
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 1: to what it was like to be around an atomic bomb.

866
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 1: Atomic bomb going off at Los Alamos. So fantastic. And

867
00:45:10,920 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna write this one with you too.

868
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, And this is another one like you could probably

869
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 2: throw that one in that partway that you mentioned earlier

870
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 2: as well. All right, song, so this one, I know

871
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: you have a bet here this one. It was interesting

872
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 2: to me because you know, I think it's gonna be

873
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: Barbie one way or the other, and I mean, Billy,

874
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 2: I was just floated on that what was I made for?

875
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 1: To end the movie?

876
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,960
Speaker 2: But I'm Just Ken was a pretty fun song. Is

877
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:41,479
Speaker 2: that kind of what you're thinking? Might have a shot

878
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 2: at an upset here?

879
00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 1: Oh? I want I'm Just Ken so bad? I mean

880
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:51,879
Speaker 1: the lines from this song, the lyrics alone are fantastic.

881
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: Ryan Gosling competing with Billie Eilish is amazing. Could you

882
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,719
Speaker 1: imagine what Ryan Gosling's gonna feel like if he's like,

883
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 1: I won an Academy Award over Billy Eilish for Rest. Now, Ultimately,

884
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the bet for me

885
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: is going to be what was I made for? And

886
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 1: I can make a lot of cases for it. If

887
00:46:10,719 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 1: you go out there to gold Derby again, thirty four

888
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: or forty experts and editors, that's more than enough to

889
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 1: say that the price should be about minus five seventy,

890
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:21,319
Speaker 1: which says seven fifty is a little high. But at

891
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: the same time, Ryan Gosling's just getting six of forty

892
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: and that means plus five sixty six, and you're not

893
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: getting that number of the market either, So there's your

894
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:31,399
Speaker 1: boundaries where you would bet it. But you know, neither

895
00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 1: of these Barbie songs, even though they don't have value,

896
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 1: there's definitely a reason why Billy Eilish a song should

897
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 1: be favored well. More of the nine thousand user votes

898
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 1: on gold Derby American Symphony pulled thirty six, Flaman Hot fourteen,

899
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: and was Ozzie from Killers of the Flower Moon pulled

900
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 1: eight of nine thousand people voting, All of those went

901
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: to Billie Eilish and What I Was Made For? And

902
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 1: what separates these two from a popularity standpoint, No matter

903
00:46:57,320 --> 00:47:01,000
Speaker 1: what metrics you use for streaming, Billy Eilish is so dominates.

904
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 1: Now that isn't everything here. I mean, I love Ryan

905
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: Gosling's power Ballad. It's a little bit of a CDC,

906
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,239
Speaker 1: a little bit of Aerosmith's sounding really great lyrics, But

907
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: at the same time, technically there are plenty more octaves

908
00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: and there's a masterpiece being played on the piano in

909
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: this song for Billy Eilish, So it's just technically not

910
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,879
Speaker 1: the same song. Between the Ken I am Kanough, I'm

911
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,279
Speaker 1: just Ken and what Billy Eilish is singing. So I

912
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: think when you go a step farther than that, why

913
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,280
Speaker 1: am I willing to swallow minus seven fifty on a bet.

914
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:35,799
Speaker 1: This song won a Grammy First Song of the Year

915
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:40,479
Speaker 1: and Best Song for Written for Visual Media, where Billy

916
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 1: Eilish was in head to head competition with three other

917
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:46,839
Speaker 1: Barbie songs and be all three of them, including Ken's song.

918
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,320
Speaker 1: So you know, I can definitely feel the k energy.

919
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: I own a knough hoodie. I love it. I wish

920
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 1: I could bet on it. I would have to have

921
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,320
Speaker 1: six seven, eight to one, and it's not going to

922
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 1: get there because this is a crowd favorite in the

923
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 1: betting market, and sadly, I'm just gonna stick with Billie Eilish.

924
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: I'm gonna swallow that big number. I'm gonna throw it

925
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 1: into a few parlays. If you're winning a Grammy and

926
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:13,320
Speaker 1: you're beating your competition head to head at the Grammys, enough.

927
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:17,360
Speaker 2: Said, oh yeah, like I've learned this betting Grammys a

928
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 2: long time ago. Don't bet against Billy otlish Man like

929
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 2: she is. She's one of the best artists in the

930
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:26,960
Speaker 2: world and she won period James Bond right, no Time

931
00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 2: to Die? Yeah, yeah, she I don't know what is

932
00:48:30,400 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 2: she lost is the bigger question, Like I can't I

933
00:48:33,520 --> 00:48:35,240
Speaker 2: can't remember much that she's lost.

934
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: Detective went back and dug up one of her songs

935
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,640
Speaker 1: from like twenty sixteen, twenty seventeen to be their lead

936
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 1: for season four. Here that just played on HBO. I

937
00:48:42,800 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 1: mean she's she's killing it right now, just blazing trail.

938
00:48:46,480 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're not going to bet against Billy. Uh all right, Uh,

939
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 2: here's so live action short. This is probably my favorite

940
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 2: bet and definitely favorite long shot.

941
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I chance, it's my favorite bet.

942
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 2: So the favorite is The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.

943
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: It's Wes Anderson Films. Pretty good. Check it out. It's

944
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 1: only thirty eight minutes, so not bad.

945
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:18,879
Speaker 2: Night of Fortune five to one, The After twelve to one,

946
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 2: Red White and Blue sixteen to one, Invincible twenty to one.

947
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,319
Speaker 2: I'm taking Red White and Blue at sixteen to one

948
00:49:27,960 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: now number one out of all the films like this,

949
00:49:32,200 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 2: this film, I think it's like twenty two to twenty

950
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 2: three minutes. Watch it. It is so good. It's it's riveting.

951
00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 2: The twist is crazy. It's short, it's short enough you

952
00:49:40,520 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: can watch it in a half hour, in less than

953
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 2: a half hour.

954
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: Great film.

955
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 2: But if you look at the numbers, the gold Derby

956
00:49:48,320 --> 00:49:51,319
Speaker 2: editor number one pick has been correct in nine of

957
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 2: the past twelve. Experts only seven of the past twelve

958
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 2: has their number one been correct.

959
00:49:57,200 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 1: Well, wouldn't you know it?

960
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,839
Speaker 2: This year the experts are choosing the chalk in the

961
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 2: Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. But gold Derby editors number

962
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 2: one pick is Red White and Blue. So that is

963
00:50:14,360 --> 00:50:17,640
Speaker 2: pretty big here at sixteen to one. And what I

964
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:22,879
Speaker 2: think happens with these short film categories is a lot

965
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 2: of the experts just aren't watching these, like editors like

966
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 2: that's your job, like you're literally getting paid, so they're

967
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,319
Speaker 2: more likely to have watched these things. I feel like

968
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:35,719
Speaker 2: some of the experts even probably just watch the favorite

969
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 2: and it's just kind of like a you know, a

970
00:50:37,920 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 2: herd mentality, and it just like it gets inflated.

971
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 1: But I think Red White and.

972
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 2: Blue is fifty to fifty at like at worst with

973
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:49,359
Speaker 2: with the Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar.

974
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:50,280
Speaker 1: They're both good films.

975
00:50:50,320 --> 00:50:54,040
Speaker 2: But I think Red White and Blue that the ending man,

976
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 2: Like I'm telling you, the twist is crazy and it's

977
00:50:58,160 --> 00:51:00,400
Speaker 2: it's just it's just a really good film. I just

978
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,279
Speaker 2: don't think many people have watched because it got taken off,

979
00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:06,840
Speaker 2: like it's you have to sign up for, I believe, Vimeo,

980
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 2: or you have to stream it in theaters, like you

981
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: can't just go on Netflix and watch it like you

982
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 2: can the front Runner. So I think that's why you're

983
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 2: seeing it at such long odds. So this is my

984
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 2: favorite bet of these, of this whole ceremony.

985
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,520
Speaker 1: And it's already taken action. I would say, if you

986
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 1: listen to this pod, go get it now. It's it's

987
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:27,400
Speaker 1: taking action a couple of my books. I've seen it

988
00:51:27,480 --> 00:51:28,840
Speaker 1: move in the last forty eight hours.

989
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, I mean that's probably me. Sorry, sorry about that.

990
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 2: I've been hammering that everywhere. So but yeah, and a

991
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: lot of times you're gonna find some of the best,

992
00:51:38,960 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 2: your best bets on these short film categories. So don't

993
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 2: discount them, because what happens is, uh, even people that

994
00:51:44,840 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 2: are kind of into this and just you know, maybe

995
00:51:46,680 --> 00:51:48,520
Speaker 2: they're not in big betters, but they just kind of

996
00:51:48,680 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 2: love the like just love to predict, you know, who's

997
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 2: gonna win, even even a lot of those like fanatics,

998
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 2: tend to overlook these categories, so the market is not

999
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:03,160
Speaker 2: as sharp as it could be. So documentary short I

1000
00:52:03,200 --> 00:52:07,400
Speaker 2: think the ABC's of book book burning, which is the favorite,

1001
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:09,800
Speaker 2: but I think it has a little bit of value

1002
00:52:09,800 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 2: here over about three quarters of gold Derby is picking

1003
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 2: it now and it's minus two hundred. So another one

1004
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 2: is thrown a parway, not like a crazy big bet

1005
00:52:22,320 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 2: I liked. I got it at minus one fifty, so

1006
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:26,000
Speaker 2: now it's up to minus two hundred. Don't like it

1007
00:52:26,040 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: as much, but I still see it with value up

1008
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 2: to about minus two fifty. But this one is one

1009
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: where you know, the ABCS of book burning has kind

1010
00:52:35,600 --> 00:52:38,359
Speaker 2: of been it's kind of been like floating around the top,

1011
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 2: and then it's been pulling away as of weight with

1012
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 2: some steam. And again that's one where, especially when I'm

1013
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 2: looking at the gold Derby editors who actually get paid

1014
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:50,360
Speaker 2: to watch these films, when they're kind of locking, you know,

1015
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 2: taking a stance on these short film categories late in

1016
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 2: the game, that's when I tend to pay attention. So

1017
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: I like the ABC's of book burning up to about

1018
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:00,880
Speaker 2: minus to fifty.

1019
00:53:01,000 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 1: So some slight value there, but we talk about this

1020
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: year after year, like the political landscape can have an

1021
00:53:06,600 --> 00:53:09,080
Speaker 1: effect on where the votes go in this and right now,

1022
00:53:09,680 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 1: if I've got to watch another person running for House

1023
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 1: representatives that's holding a flamethrower and burning books, I mean,

1024
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 1: I'm tired of I know it's an election here, but

1025
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: man burning books with a flamethrower. Come on, guys, do better.

1026
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 1: If you're trying to get to Congress, you can do better.

1027
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: But yeah, you're right. This one hits all, checks all

1028
00:53:26,320 --> 00:53:30,520
Speaker 1: the boxes and animated short.

1029
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 2: This is another one where you know the favorite is

1030
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 2: The War is Over at minus one twenty letter to

1031
00:53:36,440 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 2: a Pigs at plus one ten, so it's kind of

1032
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 2: even there. Ninety five censes little higher. Earlier in the

1033
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 2: season has been moving some steam. It's seven to one now,

1034
00:53:48,040 --> 00:53:52,360
Speaker 2: so this War is over filmed with the music of

1035
00:53:52,440 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 2: John and Yoko.

1036
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:55,360
Speaker 1: That's the one again.

1037
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 2: It's had some weight steam from gold Derby and again

1038
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,560
Speaker 2: like I don't look at leap market steam, but when

1039
00:54:00,600 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 2: I see like people who are actually paid to watch

1040
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 2: these things take a stance late in the game, That's

1041
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 2: what I'm looking for. So I think The War Is

1042
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,800
Speaker 2: Over has some slight value here, just about minus one thirty.

1043
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 2: Nothing crazy, but Letter to a Pig's been the favorite

1044
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,040
Speaker 2: for most of the season, and it's kind of dropping

1045
00:54:17,080 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 2: off a little bit. But again, like nobody's really paying

1046
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: attention to these, so it's not like it's it's it's

1047
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 2: plus one ten. Essentially, you're talking about fifty to fifty

1048
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 2: with the top two and then everything else is just inflated.

1049
00:54:29,600 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 2: But I got Colin Witcherd, who also, uh is you know,

1050
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 2: really good Oscar better? He likes ninety five centses, so

1051
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 2: you know, maybe you throw a little little hedge on that.

1052
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:42,880
Speaker 2: But I think The War Is Over is a decent

1053
00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,759
Speaker 2: bet to win at at minus one twenty, I'll.

1054
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:48,200
Speaker 1: Book one of them. I'm not gonna tell you you

1055
00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:49,840
Speaker 1: were calling who I'm who I'm gonna play with.

1056
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:52,839
Speaker 2: So I mean seven to one versus minus one twenty,

1057
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 2: I think I know which way you're going. But yeah,

1058
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 2: like I said, these short film categories, don't overlook them.

1059
00:54:57,719 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 1: If you're if your book offers.

1060
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:03,359
Speaker 2: Them, definitely do uh check them out because a lot

1061
00:55:03,360 --> 00:55:05,640
Speaker 2: of times you find the best values on those. But

1062
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 2: I think that is gonna do it for us for

1063
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 2: our sixth Annual Academy Awards Action Network Podcast. Let me

1064
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:16,359
Speaker 2: just recap all of our bests because we had a lot,

1065
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 2: so Collin, you had to Oppenheimer parlay to open the

1066
00:55:20,960 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 2: show Best Picture, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor, Best Cinematography,

1067
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:29,399
Speaker 2: and Best Score. I think you can add editing and

1068
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 2: sound to that if you want some more. Oppenheimer at

1069
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 2: a little a little bit longer odds there to to

1070
00:55:35,680 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 2: juice up that parlay cow and you like Paul Giamatti

1071
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:42,800
Speaker 2: for Best Actor, I'm a Stone for Best Actress.

1072
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:47,439
Speaker 1: VFX? Who do we go with? For VFX? Again, We're

1073
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 1: going for the creator plus, Yeah, they create action. God

1074
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: Zilla is gonna take that money. Fine, you know, take

1075
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 1: my goddamn money. I don't know how this thing is steaming.

1076
00:55:56,120 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 2: But yeah, we're going with the Creator and and Billie

1077
00:55:59,040 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 2: Irish of course for Best Song. I got like Emma Stone,

1078
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:07,799
Speaker 2: but got Sandra Holler Long Shot for actress Barbie and

1079
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 2: Anatomy of a Fall for the screenplay categories Poor Things

1080
00:56:11,440 --> 00:56:15,120
Speaker 2: for makeup and hair, Oppenheimer for sound, Red White and Blue,

1081
00:56:15,200 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: my favorite bet for live action short, ABC's a Book

1082
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 2: Burning for documentary short, and The War Is Over for

1083
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:26,080
Speaker 2: animated short. There's a few other categories here that we

1084
00:56:26,120 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: didn't touch on. That just means we didn't see any value.

1085
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 2: A lot of times they're just inflated, like production design,

1086
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:35,000
Speaker 2: for example, you have Poor Things and Barbie each at

1087
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,399
Speaker 2: minus one twenty, So like, how does that make sense?

1088
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:37,600
Speaker 1: You know?

1089
00:56:37,640 --> 00:56:40,680
Speaker 2: I get, yeah, two better than fifty percent odds, Like

1090
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 2: you're gonna be paying massive juice no matter what you

1091
00:56:43,600 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 2: do there. So that's that's really why. If there's a

1092
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:48,879
Speaker 2: category that you're interested in that we didn't mention, that's

1093
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:49,560
Speaker 2: pretty much why.

1094
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,920
Speaker 1: Like Best International Film and minus five thousand just not

1095
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:55,080
Speaker 1: even worth talking about with zone of interest, right.

1096
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:56,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I guess you could throw that in

1097
00:56:56,280 --> 00:57:00,879
Speaker 2: the Oppenheimer partly that divine for supporting actress. Those are

1098
00:57:01,080 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 2: those are the other Locks animated feature. I kind of

1099
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 2: want to bet it, but I really have no idea

1100
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,160
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen with Spider Man and the Boy and

1101
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,319
Speaker 2: the Heron. I'm probably's probably gonna be Spider Man, but

1102
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 2: it seems like it's a little shakier than most years

1103
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 2: when those kind of movies are are nominated.

1104
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:18,720
Speaker 1: So that's gonna do it for us.

1105
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,320
Speaker 2: I hope you guys enjoyed it, be sure to hit

1106
00:57:22,400 --> 00:57:25,920
Speaker 2: up Twin on Twitter underscore c O L O I

1107
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 2: N one, I'm at Chris raybon r A y B

1108
00:57:29,440 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 2: O N and you can find us at those same

1109
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 2: handles on the award winning Action Network app if you're

1110
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:41,760
Speaker 2: into sports betting. Two next Oscars, let's get thish money.

1111
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 1: All right, You've really made this a night to remember

1112
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:50,200
Speaker 1: it every way. Now let's go party till dawn