1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,279 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast UFC Betting Preview for 3 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 2: UFC Vegas fifty six. I'm Sean Zarilla, joined today by 4 00:00:26,960 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 2: my co host Billy Ward, former professional MMA fighter. We're 5 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 2: going to take you through the main event, our best underdogs, 6 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 2: our favorite props, a little bit of DFS angles, and 7 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,159 Speaker 2: finally our best bets for the card. This is our 8 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: first of ten consecutive weeks back with the UFC in 9 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: our lives week off last week felt like a month 10 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 2: off in between cards. Really don't know how we do 11 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: it when we have a week off from these fights, Billy, 12 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,520 Speaker 2: but let's start with the main event, Alexander Rocov versus 13 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: Jayresina Rosenstrike. Now, I was crapping on this main event 14 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,120 Speaker 2: a little bit and our slack chat between me and 15 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,880 Speaker 2: you and our editor Malik Smith. So you might have 16 00:01:01,920 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 2: some stronger opinions here than I do, but I just 17 00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 2: view this as a very binary fight. Don't love the 18 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 2: heavyweight made events in general, but in my opinion, very binary. 19 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 2: See his tough time for rosen Strike winning a decision here. 20 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 2: Very low volume tends to get in the staring contest 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 2: Volkov much higher volume in general don't really see rosen 22 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 2: Strike being able to grapple him like Tom Aspinall did. 23 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,760 Speaker 2: Maybe he can kick his leg a bunch, cause Volkov 24 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 2: to get off balance and then catch him with a 25 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: big shot and knock him out. But basically, Volcov by 26 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:32,760 Speaker 2: decision rosen Strike by finish is how I see this 27 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 2: one going down. I do like the value on Volcov 28 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: by decision, projected it around plus one forty. You can 29 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,520 Speaker 2: actually bet a plus two hundred out there at Caesars. 30 00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: I think that's a very good price. Wouldn't really bet 31 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 2: it down past probably plus one seventy, maybe plus one sixty, 32 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,880 Speaker 2: But vocal by decision is where I'm going for the 33 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: main event. How do you see this fight playing out? 34 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: Do you give rosen Strike much of a chance of 35 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: winning by decision? And where's your best bet for this fight? 36 00:01:56,800 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's funny. 37 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,160 Speaker 4: I totally agree with you and pretty much everything you've said, 38 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 4: but I'm actually excited for it. I think, you know, 39 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:05,000 Speaker 4: we see a lot of the sloppy heavyweight fights, as 40 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 4: you've dubbed it, but these guys both have fairly good cardio. 41 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 4: You know, we saw Rosenstrike pick up a fifth round 42 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 4: knockout and not even fifth round. It was like four 43 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,440 Speaker 4: seconds left in the fight against over him, he's gonna 44 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:16,240 Speaker 4: be throwing bombs the whole time. He's finished all of 45 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 4: his USC wins. So it is very binary, like you said, 46 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 4: but I think the extra distant or the extra time 47 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 4: with this being five rounds. 48 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:24,799 Speaker 3: Actually helps rosen Strike. 49 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 4: So betting him by a TKO at plus two to 50 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 4: ten or inside the distance at plus one ninety is 51 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 4: my favorite. I'm totally okay with hedging that off with 52 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 4: the Volkov decision because you can kind of make it 53 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,760 Speaker 4: so you win either way on that. But I really 54 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 4: like rosen Strike here. He's he's still fairly new to 55 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:40,600 Speaker 4: the sport. He's actually like six months older than Volkov, 56 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 4: but he's only had fifteen MMA fights compared to forty 57 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 4: four for Volkoff. So if anything, that feels like we've 58 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:48,320 Speaker 4: found the ceiling in terms of how good Volkov is 59 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,400 Speaker 4: going to be. You know, he's beat everyone outside of 60 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 4: the top five, we can't really hang with that upper echelon, 61 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 4: and it's similar for rosen Strike, but he's only had 62 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 4: fifteen MMA fights. Could he still be getting better at 63 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 4: this point in his career? I don't think that's a 64 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,240 Speaker 4: ridiculous proposition. So when we've got heavyweights looking at each 65 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:05,440 Speaker 4: other for twenty five minutes, I don't really see either 66 00:03:05,440 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 4: of them making it much of a grappling match. I'm 67 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 4: going to tick the guy who's got the finishing up side, 68 00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 4: just because twenty five minutes is a long time to 69 00:03:11,040 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 4: stand there and eat punches from someone like rosen Strike. 70 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:16,240 Speaker 2: It's to your points that projected rosen Strikes knockout line 71 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 2: at plus two hundred, so I think that's a fine 72 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 2: bet if you're playing the rosen Strike line. Would definitely 73 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 2: prefer his knockout prop to his money line. And Volkov 74 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 2: has seemed a little bit slower in his past couple 75 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:27,519 Speaker 2: of fights. He's very deep into his career, a ton 76 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 2: of professional fights, getting older. Maybe he's slowing down and 77 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 2: losing a step, and that'll certainly create openings for gyro Zeno. 78 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 2: I just don't know if Volkov is going to be 79 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: as willing to engage either. We see a lot of 80 00:03:37,680 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 2: fighters just sort of stare at rosen Strike and it 81 00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 2: ends up being a very low volume fight, and ger 82 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 2: Zeno can win on power optics, so maybe there is 83 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 2: a path to him for a decision at Volkov is 84 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 2: just staring at him for twenty five minutes, but buying large. 85 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 5: I think we agree. 86 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 2: Volkov decision gyro Zeno by knockout probably the two ways 87 00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: to play it, and I would prefer the props to 88 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 2: the money lines. Let's move to our best underdog bets. 89 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Alex da Silva against Joe Silecchi. 90 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: Da Silva plus one fifty out there projected him closer 91 00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: to plus one twenty five. Yuma is the better striker. 92 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: It's taken a long layoff. We see these guys coming 93 00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: back from Brazil off of long layoffs looking like they 94 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: went to a pharmacy or two, so maybe he's gotten 95 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 2: a little bit in terms of a level up for 96 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 2: his physique. Is cardio because this cardio has been an 97 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: issue in the past. That said, I don't view SELECTI 98 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 2: as a guy who has great cardio either. Both of 99 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 2: these guys might be dying in the third round. I 100 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 2: do like the ghosted decision though as well. At minus 101 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 2: one ten projected that closer to minus one fifty. There's 102 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: a chance you sweating this in the final two and 103 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 2: a half minutes and one of these guys might be 104 00:04:41,240 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 2: completely falling apart. They both might be completely falling apart. 105 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 2: But really for Seleki, probably the better grappler, but he 106 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 2: does need to win this fight, likely with control time 107 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 2: for extended stretches or to find a late finish. Here 108 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 2: is Silva definitely the better striker in my eyes. I 109 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,760 Speaker 2: think he can probably counter wrestle and keep this fight 110 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 2: still for longer than the money line would indicate. It's 111 00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 2: probably a coin flip fight in my opinion, so I'll 112 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 2: take the guy who is the clear edge and striking 113 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,920 Speaker 2: at plus money. If SELECTI was plus one fifty, I'd 114 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 2: probably be taking him given where I project this fight, 115 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:15,679 Speaker 2: So definitely view it as a coin flip fight. Willing 116 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 2: to take the plus money side on a guy who 117 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 2: I think has a clear edge in one of the 118 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 2: aspects of MMA. Billy, where are you going for your 119 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 2: best dog bet? 120 00:05:25,000 --> 00:05:27,440 Speaker 3: Yeah? I like yours. I have a bet out there. Early. 121 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 4: It does seem that the line is moving a little bit, 122 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,200 Speaker 4: So anyone listening to this who wants to get on 123 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 4: the silver side, I think that's probably going to finish 124 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 4: closer to plus one forty plus one thirty five by 125 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 4: the time the fights kickoff, so'll get on that one now. 126 00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 3: But I'm looking at Carolina. 127 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 4: Kolakis struggling with that one. 128 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: Sorry, oval Kvich, It's okay, it's a tough dams man. Well, 129 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: Hoovich coval Kevich I struggle with them as well. 130 00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 3: Well. 131 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 4: She also hasn't fought in a little bit, so we're 132 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 4: you know, out of mind, but she is fighting Felice 133 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 4: Harrig and like, I can't believe this is the futured 134 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 4: pre lim there. I think, oh for their last eight 135 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 4: collectively between the two of them, which just I don't 136 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 4: know why we're doing this, But covial Kaevich is actually 137 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: the slight underdog here. But this is a rematch between 138 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,760 Speaker 4: her and Harry, and covial Keevich won a fairly close 139 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 4: split decision. But if you just look at the historical 140 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 4: data and rematches, the younger fighter tends to do better. 141 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:20,360 Speaker 4: She's a little over a year younger, and the fighter 142 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 4: who won the previous fight tends to have an edge. 143 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:24,040 Speaker 4: And she's the winner of the previous one. 144 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: So when you can get. 145 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 4: Her at plus one oh five or plus one hundred, 146 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 4: depending on what book you're looking at. 147 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 3: Both of those things. Both of those trends. 148 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,560 Speaker 4: Even consider the betting odds too, It's not just straight up, 149 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 4: so it's pretty much just a math and trends play 150 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 4: for me. 151 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,159 Speaker 3: I also think she's probably. 152 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 4: The better striker and Hark will need to find a 153 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,919 Speaker 4: takedown at some point, but her career takedown accuracy is 154 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 4: like a ridiculously horrible twenty five thirty percent something like that. 155 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:48,720 Speaker 4: So from a stylistic standpoint, I like it, but I'm 156 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 4: really just playing the trends in the historical lines here. 157 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 3: Now. 158 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: I bet Covial Kievich as well. I actually considered giving 159 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:56,480 Speaker 2: her out as my best dog bet. I wanted to 160 00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:58,840 Speaker 2: go a little bit higher on a dog money line, 161 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 2: but those are the two dogs that I bet at 162 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 2: the Silva and Kovil Kievich. Felice really couldn't get her 163 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 2: down in the first fight, and Caroline is definitely the 164 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,160 Speaker 2: better striker, so if this stays on the feet, Carolina 165 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: should win extended stretches. She also trains with the Top 166 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 2: Camp at American Top Team. I believe she's lost her 167 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,240 Speaker 2: last five fights, but Harrik has only fought twice since 168 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 2: these two last fought. She's had multiple knee surgeries Covid 169 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: Kievich has fought better competition. She trains with the top 170 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 2: camp at American Top Team, So I really don't see 171 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 2: why Covid Kievitch shouldn't be the favorite here, especially coming 172 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 2: off of a win in the first fight where I 173 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 2: didn't think it was a split decision. I thought she 174 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: should have won straight up. So we tend to agree 175 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: on our best dogs for Saturday's card. Let's move to 176 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 2: our fight of the night, and this is probably my 177 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 2: favorite story in MMA right now or maybe in a while. 178 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 2: Alonza Metafield taking on Askar Mosarov. He looked early in 179 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 2: the week at Askcar Mozarov's record. You can find some 180 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 2: tape on his fights, and it really shouldn't change the 181 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: handicap knowing. 182 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:54,480 Speaker 5: What we know now. 183 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 2: But this guy's a fraud. We hear the word fraud 184 00:07:57,680 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: used all the time in MMA and sports. This guy 185 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 2: as a fraud, Usually it means they're not as good 186 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 2: as people think, but in this case, Mosarov is an 187 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 2: actual fraud. He's lied about his record, He's changed his 188 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: name multiple times, changed the results of fights, had people 189 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 2: pull him off of fight posters on nights where he 190 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: fought and lost. It's just the hilarious story. His record 191 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,720 Speaker 2: I believe was twenty five and seven. It's since been 192 00:08:21,760 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 2: corrected down to nineteen and eleven. We'll see what record 193 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 2: UFC uses on their scorebug tomorrow. Maybe they'llut him at 194 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 2: zero and zero. Maybe he'll be under five hundred by 195 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:33,440 Speaker 2: the time the fight starts. It's tough to know, but 196 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,960 Speaker 2: based on what we've seen from these guys, Mozarov is 197 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 2: absolutely no grappling. Maybe a dangerous shriker wan to BKFC 198 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 2: fight in eight seconds against the guy who's like five 199 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:46,040 Speaker 2: and fifteen in MMA now but still seems. 200 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 5: To have good power. 201 00:08:46,800 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 2: Could definitely hit hard, and we've seen Menfield knocked out 202 00:08:49,000 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 2: in the past by a washed oven saint Prux. Menifield 203 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 2: typically a one and done guy, really good for a 204 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 2: round and then his cardio falls off of a cliff. Well, 205 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 2: Mozarov has been to the second round like twice in 206 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 2: his past twenty fights. He tends to quit very quickly, 207 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 2: and especially if you can take him down. Menifield took 208 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 2: down and immediately submitted Fabi or Charan. I do like 209 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 2: to typically bet Menifield in the first round of his fights. 210 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 2: This price is about plus one fifty. I think in 211 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 2: that Charan fight, I got closer to three to one 212 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 2: or four to one, so not interested in the first 213 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: round prop here. What I do like is the under 214 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 2: one and a half rounds. You could bet that up 215 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 2: to about minus two hundred minus two ten, still some 216 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 2: minus one nineties out there at fand to one points bet. 217 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:30,400 Speaker 2: So I like the under one and a half rounds. 218 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:32,959 Speaker 2: I like Menifield and the under two and a half 219 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,120 Speaker 2: rounds at points bet as opposed to his inside the 220 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 2: distance prop. You can bet he's inside the distance prop 221 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,959 Speaker 2: and about minus one thirty the fando prop or the 222 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 2: points bet prop. I should say the under two and 223 00:09:42,280 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 2: a half in Menifield to win, that's sitting closer to 224 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,199 Speaker 2: even money minus one of five minus one of six. 225 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,559 Speaker 2: So that's probably how I bet Menifield if you're playing 226 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:53,640 Speaker 2: him straight up, and then his submission prop as well, 227 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:55,839 Speaker 2: sitting around plus six to fifty. I would react to 228 00:09:55,880 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 2: this closer to five hundred Mozarov. Anytime he gets taken down, 229 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:01,280 Speaker 2: he's looking for a way out of there. He actually 230 00:10:01,360 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 2: tapped the strikes after eating one clean elbow pretty recently. 231 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 2: I just think this guy's a straight up fraud, but 232 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 2: I wouldn't buy into the massive line movement that you're 233 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,440 Speaker 2: seeing towards Metfield. This line is minus one fifty yesterday, 234 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 2: now it's minus two to fifty. Don't bet into that 235 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,479 Speaker 2: price movement at this point. You shouldn't affect your handicap 236 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 2: based on what we've seen on tape from these guys, 237 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 2: just knowing that this guy's a fraudulent record in the past, 238 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 2: but he is a fraud, and we're gonna find a 239 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 2: way to fade frauds any chance we get, because they 240 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,320 Speaker 2: rarely make their way into the UFC. It has happened before, 241 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 2: but it rarely happens nowadays. So, Billy, how are you 242 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 2: betting this fight? It's kind of a fun fight to 243 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 2: handicap knowing Mozarov's like sordid past, all the ways he's 244 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 2: changed his name, changes record, But how are you angling 245 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:49,199 Speaker 2: to bet this fight from a gambling perspective? 246 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's fun because it kind of reminds me of 247 00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 4: the old days, like when I was getting started in 248 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 4: the sport and there weren't really good record keeping, and guys, 249 00:10:56,520 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 4: you know, I could be Bill one fight and Billy 250 00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 4: the next, and William the third and you know, like 251 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 4: all kinds of funny stuff that guys were getting away with, 252 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 4: but we just don't see that anymore. Just you know, 253 00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 4: like the internet exists, there's YouTube. You know, it's hard 254 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 4: to do, but you touched on it a little bit 255 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 4: with the drastic line movement, and I gotta say, I'm 256 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 4: going to be on Mozarov here. 257 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 3: You know. 258 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 4: I thought the initial line that came out on him 259 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:21,319 Speaker 4: was about right, just looking at his past handful of fights, right, 260 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:23,600 Speaker 4: and we're looking back at some of these losses that 261 00:11:23,640 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 4: have been added. He said he was throwing fights for money, 262 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 4: or he wasn't sure that they were professional fights, or 263 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 4: he you know, didn't really understand even if that wasn't 264 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 4: the case. He was like barely eighteen when he turned pro. 265 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 4: So I really don't want to judge a twenty seven, 266 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 4: twenty eight year old athlete in the prime of his 267 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 4: career versus getting beat up as a twenty seven year 268 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 4: old or as an eighteen year old. We haven't seen 269 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 4: him lose in like almost three years at this point. 270 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:48,960 Speaker 4: He's looked really, really good with his striking and all 271 00:11:48,960 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 4: the tape I saw. 272 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 3: I was really impressed with his kicks and. 273 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 4: He's the taller, longer fighter than Menafield, which I think 274 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 4: should be able to keep him away. I'm not super 275 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 4: impressed with Menafield's wrestling ever. You know, he did it 276 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 4: to add Hern, who's a million years old and probably 277 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 4: too small for the division. He tapped out Fabio Chaurant, 278 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 4: who's never won a UFC fight and has also looked 279 00:12:07,120 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 4: lost on the ground. I don't think we know that 280 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 4: Menifield can actually make this a ground fight, So for 281 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,720 Speaker 4: all of that, that's why I had the initial line 282 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 4: is about right. You know, he's got a puncher's chance. Plus, 283 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 4: you would think Mosarov might have the cardio advantage, just 284 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 4: with Manifield being so like big and thick and burning 285 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 4: out so much. We haven't really seen it in a 286 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 4: long time, so it's hard to say for sure. But 287 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 4: now that you're seeing him at as high as plus two 288 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 4: ten on Caesars, I can't I can't not bet that 289 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: at this point he could win a decision. If Manifield 290 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 4: gas is out, he could easily catch him with something. 291 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 4: He's got great kick, so it could chop the leg out. 292 00:12:40,120 --> 00:12:42,679 Speaker 4: I could even see Mosarov chopping out the front leg 293 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,199 Speaker 4: pretty heavy early in this fight, and even if Minifield 294 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 4: wins the first round, a possible live betting opportunity. So 295 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 4: it doesn't feel great betting on a guy with this 296 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,720 Speaker 4: kind of checkered history and you know all the questions 297 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 4: around him, but just look at the pass three or 298 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 4: four fights of his career and you wouldn't make him 299 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 4: a plus two ten underdog against Manifield just based on that. 300 00:13:00,120 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 3: So that's where my head's at on it. 301 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:03,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, if they're laying minus two to fifty on Metafield 302 00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 2: at this point and you lose that bet, you deserve 303 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 2: to lose that bet because this guy is a basically 304 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:10,679 Speaker 2: a one and done fighter. And when it gets to 305 00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,439 Speaker 2: the second, third round. He saw a fight with William 306 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:14,680 Speaker 2: Knit they basically just held each other up against the 307 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 2: cage for ten minutes and judges had about one or 308 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 2: two moments of action to judge that decision off of. 309 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 2: So nothing is probably going to happen in the second 310 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 2: and third round. So if it gets there, I think 311 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 2: this one probably ends pretty quickly, which is why I 312 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 2: like the under one and a half. But I do 313 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 2: tend to agree with you if you're betting a money 314 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,120 Speaker 2: line side, I think it's Mosarov R pass. At this point, 315 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 2: you can probably wait and get an even better number. 316 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 2: I think, now that this story's out there and the 317 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 2: more it picks up, Menafield's line is just going to 318 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 2: keep steaming. Every time I refresh the odds page, his 319 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 2: line seems to go up. So maybe wait and you 320 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 2: might get a plus two to fifty out there on 321 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:49,319 Speaker 2: Mozarob by the time the fight starts. 322 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 5: Let's to move to our favorite props. 323 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 2: I did tease one of them with Alonso Menifield by 324 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 2: submission of plus six to fifty. If he can get 325 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,080 Speaker 2: Mozarob down, it could be an instant sub But that's 326 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 2: not where I'm going from. My favorite prop, even though 327 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,920 Speaker 2: I do like it quite a bit, it's Kareem Silva 328 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,480 Speaker 2: to win inside the distance against Pollyanna Botello. 329 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 5: You rarely see a. 330 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 2: Woman's MMA fighter with one hundred percent finish rate coming 331 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: into the UFC, even coming off of the regional scene 332 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:18,679 Speaker 2: getting fights against cans. You just rarely see that one 333 00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 2: hundred percent finish rate for female fighters. 334 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:22,520 Speaker 5: It's extremely rare. 335 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 2: Very aggressive, very violent hunt submissions. Her submission line at 336 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 2: plus five hundred. I think, as we're dabbling with I 337 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 2: projected that closer to plus three hundred, and I certainly 338 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 2: like her. Inside the distance prop plus two fifties out 339 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 2: there projected that closer to plus two hundred. So Kareem 340 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: Silva against Pollyanna Botelio is probably my favorite prop bet 341 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 2: and definitely my favorite long shot props on this card. 342 00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 2: I do have some decision props out there too, which 343 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 2: is why I say it's probably my favorite prop bet, 344 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,960 Speaker 2: but Silva inside the distance and by submission plus two 345 00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:57,640 Speaker 2: to fifty and plus five hundred respectively at BETMGM Billy, 346 00:14:57,680 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 2: How do you feel about that fight and do you 347 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:01,800 Speaker 2: have any other props that you're taking a look at. 348 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually have Silva coming up later on. I'm 349 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 4: going to talk about her and we're we're fairly in 350 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 4: agreement on that one. But speaking of one hundred percent 351 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 4: finished rate, I'm looking at UFC debut fighter Lucas Almeida. 352 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: He's fighting on the main card against Mike Trezano and 353 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 4: he also has one hundred percent finish rate coming into 354 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 4: this one. His only loss was on the Contender series 355 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 4: about against Daniel Zelhuber. 356 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:24,040 Speaker 3: I think we saw a couple of weeks ago. 357 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 4: If I remember correctly zel Houber, but Almeida almost had 358 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 4: him finish at multiple points in this one, kind of 359 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 4: ran out of steam. Both guys are thrown super heavy, 360 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 4: and I think del Hooper might be a significantly better 361 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 4: fighter than Mike Trezano who is fighting now. Tresano is 362 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 4: one in two, three and two something like that in 363 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 4: the UFC, lost by submission in one of his last three. 364 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 3: But I think Almeida is just gonna be hunting. Finishes 365 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:47,320 Speaker 3: real hard. 366 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 4: You can get it as inside the distance at plus 367 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 4: four fifty and I'm even looking at his round one 368 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 4: line at plus nine to fifty. You know, he came 369 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 4: out extremely hard, kind of ran out of steam as 370 00:15:56,440 --> 00:15:59,040 Speaker 4: the fight went on, not horribly, but wasn't you know, 371 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 4: keeping the pace he was And I think it was 372 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,480 Speaker 4: very unlucky to not put seal Hoober away and. 373 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 3: He might have easier time with Almeta in the first round. 374 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 5: Now onto Sleeper. 375 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions 376 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: of players. 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Mike 402 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:30,679 Speaker 2: Trezano one of six fighters priced over nine thousand dollars 403 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 2: this week on DraftKings fourteen fight card. Curious how you're 404 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:37,359 Speaker 2: going to trainge your strategy because the past few cards 405 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 2: have been Believe eleven fight slates so much smaller, have 406 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,879 Speaker 2: a few more fights to work with here. How do 407 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 2: you handle a card where you have six fighters priced 408 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 2: over nine thousand dollars? Aaron Blanchfield the highest at ninety 409 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,880 Speaker 2: six hundred. Are you going to be one hundred percent 410 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 2: to the Menifield fight considering Menafield and Moserov are both 411 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: reasonably priced and that fight is minus eight hundred ten 412 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 2: inside the distance. So curious how you're handling that fight 413 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,959 Speaker 2: and what o their DFS angles yat? 414 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. 415 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 4: The nice thing with these bigger ones is for the 416 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 4: most part, we can just play the fighters in the 417 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:11,640 Speaker 4: lineups we want to play. We don't have to worry 418 00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 4: about trying to get too cute in terms of not 419 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 4: getting duplicated or ownership. But there's been just a lot 420 00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 4: of significant line movement on this one, which I think 421 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 4: is really the story of the card. Like the Ascar fight, 422 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 4: is obviously the biggest one, just with all the news 423 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 4: that broke. But Menifield's a great value if you just 424 00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 4: look at the betting lines as a minus two fifty 425 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 4: favorite only eighty seven hundred, that's auto play if you're 426 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 4: just looking at value. You know, I've said I like 427 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 4: Ascar's chances here and at his salary. If he gets 428 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 4: any kind of win, especially inside the distance, then that's 429 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,800 Speaker 4: almost a guaranteed spot in the optimal. So I'll probably 430 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:44,120 Speaker 4: be one hundred percent on that fight. 431 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 3: It's just really hard. 432 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,119 Speaker 4: I've seen as high as minus nine hundred inside the 433 00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 4: distance OIDs on that one, so like you're probably not 434 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 4: gonna want to fade that. 435 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 3: I think Ascar is. 436 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 4: Going to be super low on because, like we said, 437 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 4: nobody wants to be on the side of the fraud. 438 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,960 Speaker 4: So that's another good angle where you can save some ownership, 439 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 4: save some salary. You're taking worse value on that side 440 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 4: of it, but I think that's okay in a situation 441 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,680 Speaker 4: like this. But what's crazy is that's not even the 442 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,320 Speaker 4: biggest line movement on the slate. Damon Jackson went from 443 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 4: minus three eighty to minus six seventy five since salaries 444 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:15,439 Speaker 4: it came out and I didn't really like him as 445 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 4: a minus three eighty favorite at ninety five hundred, but 446 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 4: at minus six seventy five, like, that's a real strong 447 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 4: signal where the sharp side is on this one. So 448 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 4: I'm gonna be pretty heavy on him, and I'm not 449 00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 4: too in love with any of the other super expensive fighters. 450 00:19:27,800 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 3: I don't think any of these are like must plays. 451 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 4: You know, we had a cart a few weeks back 452 00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 4: where everything was minus two hundred, minus three hundred inside 453 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 4: the distance, and you really wanted those heavy favorites. This 454 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 4: I think you can pick one or two, pick your 455 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 4: favorites and kind of go from there and then on 456 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 4: the other side, on like the cheaper side. JJ Aldrich 457 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,440 Speaker 4: against Aaron Blanchfield is the cheapest fighter on the slate. 458 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 4: She opened with the worst odds, but it's seen a 459 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 4: little bit of movement her way, and that's the perfect 460 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,440 Speaker 4: you know, Sean Zurello Cash Game special where this one's 461 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 4: probably not gonna end inside the distance. Aldridge has very 462 00:19:57,400 --> 00:19:59,199 Speaker 4: good volume, so she can put up some points in 463 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,800 Speaker 4: a loss, and I don't really see why she should 464 00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:03,920 Speaker 4: be that such big of a favorite, Like I get 465 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:06,320 Speaker 4: blanch Shield as good, but Aldrich has been an above 466 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 4: average at the very least UFC fighter. 467 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 3: I think she's yeah, she's won three in a row. 468 00:20:11,400 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 4: I don't see her as being this like hopeless underdog, 469 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 4: so she could even be a live dog for GPPs 470 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 4: and stuff like that. That frees up a ton of salary, 471 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 4: and at sixty six hundred, if she gets any kind 472 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,520 Speaker 4: of win, even a bad one, she makes it to 473 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:23,040 Speaker 4: the optimal. 474 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 2: Let's do our best bets for Saturday's UFC card I'm 475 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,159 Speaker 2: gonna go with Tony Gravelly minus one thirty five on 476 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 2: the money line and like that up to minus one fifty. 477 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 5: But I also love his decision. 478 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 2: Prop at plus two seventy five projected these lines closer 479 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: to minus one fifty five and plus one thirty five respectively, 480 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,359 Speaker 2: so I do see a bigger edge technically on his 481 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 2: decision prop. Gravelly is a good point fighter, and I 482 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,359 Speaker 2: think here he's a better striker and better wrestler. I 483 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 2: don't know if he has the better cardio, but he 484 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 2: should be able to counter wrestle and keep this on 485 00:20:56,680 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 2: the feet and when the striking exchanges or if he 486 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,440 Speaker 2: wants to wrestle, well, he just needs to stay safe 487 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 2: on top. Now, he has had some fight IQ issues 488 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 2: in the past, sticking his head into submissions, and he 489 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 2: has some concerns with regard to his cardio. He can 490 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 2: definitely fade in the third round. But I really don't 491 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 2: see anyway that Muno submits him from the bottom. In fact, 492 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 2: Munio's prefers to be on top and to do his 493 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 2: work from top. He's not a great guard player in particular, 494 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: like we've seen guys like Quadio playlists who you bet 495 00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:26,120 Speaker 2: against them, then they immediately snatch. 496 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 5: Up that leg lock. 497 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 2: So I don't really see how high you cap a 498 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,720 Speaker 2: submission from bottom for Muno's here and considering I viewed bet, 499 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,160 Speaker 2: Gravelly is the better wrestler decorate a bet wrestling background. 500 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 2: Believe he's a D one wrestler unless he makes a mistake, 501 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,199 Speaker 2: how do you cap that higher than forty percent? So 502 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,920 Speaker 2: to me, Gravelly on the money line and Gravelly's decision prop, 503 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 2: I expect him to win the vast majority of minutes 504 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 2: in this fight. Not really a big finisher, so I 505 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 2: definitely love his decision prop at plus two seventy five. 506 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:55,879 Speaker 2: But we're going to play the money line as well. 507 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 2: Do you have any thoughts on that fight, Billy and 508 00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,640 Speaker 2: give me your best bet for Saturday. 509 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you on that one. I've been on Gravelly. 510 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 4: I think the line might continue to move a little 511 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 4: bit to make the money line not worth playing because 512 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 4: it's gone his way just a little bit early in 513 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 4: the week. But yeah, I'm pretty much in agreement with you. 514 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,080 Speaker 4: And my best bet is Kareem Silva, who you referenced 515 00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 4: earlier with your inside the distance. I'm playing her straight 516 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 4: up and I'm not going to go through the whole 517 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 4: breakdown because you did a great job on that. But 518 00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 4: the one thing that scares me with her is I 519 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 4: don't want to say she has bad takedown defense, but 520 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 4: she's more than willing to accept takedowns. And we've seen 521 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 4: with judges recently that they're not really punishing you for 522 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 4: just being on your back or being controlled, and I 523 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 4: think that's the worst thing that happens to her. I 524 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 4: think she's really got a real strong guard. She's fine 525 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,040 Speaker 4: off her back. But with that said, if she's accepting 526 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 4: a lot of takedowns from Botello, it's gonna be harder 527 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 4: for her to find the finish than if she's really 528 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 4: fighting them off and looking to strike and looking to 529 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 4: attack aggressively on her side, and I think Botello's got 530 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 4: good enough jiu jitsu that she can probably survive Silva's 531 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:55,760 Speaker 4: guard throughout the course of this one. I don't think 532 00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,399 Speaker 4: she'll be winning when it's on the ground, but I 533 00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 4: think she'll survive, and just with her, I think you 534 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 4: can get as good as minus one fifteen on Silva. 535 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,359 Speaker 4: I'm willing to just take the decision chances there, especially 536 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 4: given how we see women's fights generally go. 537 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 3: But yeah, you and I. 538 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 4: Are pretty much in agreement on who the better side 539 00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 4: of that fight is. 540 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 3: I'm just not willing to lose that decision equity. 541 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 5: There a lot of agreement this week. 542 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:20,120 Speaker 2: We didn't talk about these fights in advance, so I'm 543 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: actually happy to see that we're on the same page 544 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:23,840 Speaker 2: for a lot of these One more point I will 545 00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,000 Speaker 2: mention on the Silva and Botellio fight. Botellia's best success 546 00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,919 Speaker 2: came as a shrawweight at one point fifteen. Silva has 547 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,239 Speaker 2: actually fought as a bandon weight in the past, so 548 00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,360 Speaker 2: she's coming down to one twenty five here for her debut, 549 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:37,800 Speaker 2: so I definitely think she is this value side. 550 00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 5: I just prefer her finish. Props to her money line, 551 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 5: but that'll do it for us. Thank you for tuning in. 552 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 2: We will be back next week to preview UFC two 553 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,119 Speaker 2: seventy five the light heavyweight title matchup between goldb To 554 00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 2: Schera and Uri Rohatchka, in addition to the women's flyweight 555 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: title bout between Valentina Schevchenko and Talia Santos. Best of 556 00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: luck on the fights this weekend, made a fight. God 557 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:17,119 Speaker 2: be with you and until next time, Fast of luck. M.