Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Golden Age of
Speaker 1: America begins right now. I will very simply put America first.
Speaker 2: Welcome to trump Andomics, the Bloomberg podcast that looks at
Speaker 2: the economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped
Speaker 2: the global economy and what on earth is going to
Speaker 2: happen next. I'm Stephanie Flanners, head of Government and Economics
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg, and this week we're recording Trump Andomics in
Speaker 2: the Swiss Alps, in the Bloomberg DeVos House at the
Speaker 2: World Economic Forum, And as we speak, we're looking at
Speaker 2: pictures from Washington. We're recording on Monday, and the second
Speaker 2: inauguration of Donald Trump is getting underway. So we did
Speaker 2: I think it was fitting given the timing that in
Speaker 2: this episode we asked the question, is Davos learning the
Speaker 2: art of the deal? You know, not so long ago,
Speaker 2: the billionaires, the heads of state, the tech moguls who
Speaker 2: come here every January for the World Economic Forum, they
Speaker 2: thought they were done with Donald Trump, and now they
Speaker 2: seem to be pretty meekly falling into line.
Speaker 3: I'm super fired up for the future. It's going to
Speaker 3: be very exciting.
Speaker 1: As the President said, We're going to have a golden age.
Speaker 1: I'm actually very optimistic this time. He seems to have
Speaker 1: a lot of energy around.
Speaker 4: Reducing regulation, and if I can help him do that,
Speaker 4: I'm going to help him. I mean, seeing Donald Trump
Speaker 4: get get up after getting shot.
Speaker 1: In the face and pump his fist in.
Speaker 4: The air with the American flag, it's like hard to
Speaker 4: not get kind of emotional about that spirit.
Speaker 2: And I'm wondering what the implications are for everyone else
Speaker 2: and for markets, for money, for investors, for the broader world.
Speaker 2: And I've got a stellar cast here to discuss these issues,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg's editor in chief, John Micklethwaite, and I'm very glad
Speaker 2: that you made it this year. You were human ill
Speaker 2: last year and lots of us had to pretend to
Speaker 2: be you, which didn't go well at all. We have
Speaker 2: Jenny Leonard white House reporter who focuses on international economic
Speaker 2: issues and has been the first to an awful lot
Speaker 2: of trade stories and policies ever since she came to Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: And Bradstone, who's now editor of Bloomberg business Week, but
Speaker 2: before that was Senior Executive editor for Global Technology at
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News and the author of four books very relevant
Speaker 2: to our discussions today, including Amazon Unbound, Jeff Bezos and
Speaker 2: The Invention of a Global Empire Looking Around, and it
Speaker 2: was written up rather nicely in an introductory story that
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News wrote, You'd have to say the movers and
Speaker 2: shakers descending on the World Economic Forum here in Devils
Speaker 2: this week have already been paying their dues to the
Speaker 2: new president, realigning their priorities to better fit his somewhat
Speaker 2: unreconstructed America First Agenda. We had a great quote from
Speaker 2: Lloyd Blankvine, the former head of Goldman Sachs. He said
Speaker 2: he was reminded of what happened when Napoleon escaped from Elba,
Speaker 2: and the French newspapers changed their tune pretty dramatically in
Speaker 2: eighteen fifteen. They started off, in fact, the Monitor started
Speaker 2: off characterizing Napoleon as a monster, but by the time
Speaker 2: he got close to Paris, they announced that his Majesty
Speaker 2: was arriving. And it definitely has sort of felt a
Speaker 2: bit like that, And of course Donald Trump himself would
Speaker 2: love the comparison with Napoleon. So let me start with you, Brad,
Speaker 2: because there has been so much focus on how Silicon
Speaker 2: Valley has sort of turned on a dime with this
Speaker 2: president and some of the key figures like Mark Zuckerberg
Speaker 2: in particular. But maybe what's changed it is just they've
Speaker 2: been able to show their true colors.
Speaker 3: Everything has changed.
Speaker 4: Let's go about eight years ago and all the CEOs
Speaker 4: in to the White House looking like they had some
Speaker 4: bad fish the night before, and there was Tim Cook
Speaker 4: and Jeff Bezos and Cheryl Sandberg.
Speaker 3: Zuckerberg didn't even go.
Speaker 4: Elon didn't go, and then withdrew from the Presidential Council
Speaker 4: a couple of weeks later when Trump withdrew from the
Speaker 4: Paris Climate Accords, and so what happened? I mean, they
Speaker 4: felt unjustly persecuted during the Biden years, either through the
Speaker 4: anti trust agenda or the regulation of crypto, maybe a
Speaker 4: little bit of the anti tech mood in the media.
Speaker 4: And they have come out of the last four years
Speaker 4: in some ways you know, maga and it's startling.
Speaker 3: But look, credit Trump a little bit.
Speaker 4: He opened the tent large enough to make room for
Speaker 4: all the tech leaders and they see a kind of
Speaker 4: common cause with Trump on crypto, on anti trust, on
Speaker 4: Mark and Dreesen calls it raising the tech flag building
Speaker 4: acquiring investing, and I think you know, there's optimism, but
Speaker 4: there's also opportunity.
Speaker 3: And they know that by closing up.
Speaker 4: To Trump and contributing to the inauguration and being up there.
Speaker 3: In the day is today, that that is good for business.
Speaker 2: I mean, you make the point though, that you know
Speaker 2: they have shifted in the last eight years. It's not
Speaker 2: just that they're sort of suddenly waking up to the
Speaker 2: reality of a second Trump term. So how much were
Speaker 2: you surprised by any of what's happened in the last time.
Speaker 4: Absolutely shocked, because you know, there did seem to be
Speaker 4: a sense of legitimate resistance eight years ago.
Speaker 3: But the world has changed. And Trump, as you know,
Speaker 3: as I said, you know, to his credit, he's evolved.
Speaker 3: Now there's not a lot of consistency.
Speaker 4: I mean, he was the one who raised the idea
Speaker 4: of banning TikTok and has just given it a reprieve.
Speaker 4: He was anti crypto and just launched the Trump coin
Speaker 4: and the Melennia coin to great enrichment of the family.
Speaker 4: So he's seeing some of the political and frankly the
Speaker 4: financial opportunities of being big Trump, being.
Speaker 3: Big tech, big Trump. I think, well, that might be
Speaker 3: even more appropriate.
Speaker 2: Obviously financially, and that's a big part of all the
Speaker 2: discussions around here. We have seen a lot of bedding
Speaker 2: on and moving of money in line with the Trump agenda,
Speaker 2: not just bitcoin, but price of oil, growth, stocks, the dollar.
Speaker 2: They've all gone up there about eight percent. I was
Speaker 2: looking at it this morning, since Donald Trump was elected,
Speaker 2: and when I look at what the impact has already
Speaker 2: been on countries like the UK, the big increase in
Speaker 2: bond yield that's gone with this, you know, it feels
Speaker 2: like already before he's done anything, any country with underlying weaknesses,
Speaker 2: any government with underlying weaknesses, is having those exacerbated or
Speaker 2: highlighted just by the fact of the Trump agenda, and
Speaker 2: they're on the back foot. How would you say the
Speaker 2: world has changed in particularly the sort of foreign policy
Speaker 2: and financial markets.
Speaker 1: What Brad said about tech is actually quite true of
Speaker 1: business in general, and not just linked to Trump. I mean,
Speaker 1: I think if you look around the world, compared with
Speaker 1: say eight years ago, business people everywhere since both more
Speaker 1: fear and more opportunity in their relations with government. The
Speaker 1: idea when I first started coming to devoce that business
Speaker 1: was this wonderful thing that existed outside the realms of government,
Speaker 1: and it was all about kind of doing good and
Speaker 1: all that sort of stuff. Now business people realize that
Speaker 1: you can both get clobbered by government, and that applies
Speaker 1: from Trump, but it also applies to the European Union
Speaker 1: and lots of other places. But also it's a chance
Speaker 1: for enrichment, as you know, TikTok is suddenly discovering and
Speaker 1: lots of other people that people in the Midwest now
Speaker 1: will be thinking, well, maybe we can make money out
Speaker 1: of tariffs if they come our way. There'll be people
Speaker 1: you know around here thinking about different things that they
Speaker 1: might be able together if Europe puts up bigger barriers
Speaker 1: and so on. So there's both kind of fear and
Speaker 1: greed are driving business and government together, I think generally.
Speaker 1: But on this specific question you said, you can see
Speaker 1: it everywhere. You know, Britain has suddenly got somewhat sort
Speaker 1: of freaked out by a kind of semi Liz Trust moment.
Speaker 1: You can argue how much of this is Rachel We've
Speaker 1: spoilt also, you know, and how much of it is
Speaker 1: just the simple fact that Trump has arrived and everything
Speaker 1: has been thrown into greater kind of impact either good
Speaker 1: or bad. And I think that's almost almost a way
Speaker 1: to look at Trump at the moment. He's sort of
Speaker 1: throw every weakness or every strength is somehow being massively exaggerated.
Speaker 1: Trump is always about exaggerating.
Speaker 2: And when it comes to the UK, I mean if
Speaker 2: you look at actually the sort of gap in borrowing
Speaker 2: costs between the UK and the US has barely moved,
Speaker 2: and yet all of the pressure, none of the pressure
Speaker 2: in the UK has all been on the chancellor for
Speaker 2: reasons that sort of pre date that change. Well, I
Speaker 2: want it in a little bit good defense. I'm just
Speaker 2: looking at the spread on as you'd expect any Bloomberg imparted,
Speaker 2: we will get onto some of these kind of broader
Speaker 2: packs of basic things like the cost of money actually
Speaker 2: going up along.
Speaker 1: With all good news.
Speaker 2: But Jenny, obviously a lot of the big news we've
Speaker 2: seen have been trying to game out how serious Donald
Speaker 2: Trump is on his agenda for tariffs, what it will
Speaker 2: mean for different aspects of the global economy and different companies. So,
Speaker 2: since you're usually the first to find out these things,
Speaker 2: what's your sense so far?
Speaker 5: Well, I would also say Washington has seen a big
Speaker 5: shift since the last strund term on this. First of all,
Speaker 5: they're all accepting the outcome that he's president again. But
Speaker 5: we also see both parties coming together wanting to do
Speaker 5: things together, which I think eight years ago we wouldn't
Speaker 5: have imagined them talking about, oh, we need to actually
Speaker 5: do something on the border, because that played into the
Speaker 5: election outcome. Maybe Trump has a point here on trade,
Speaker 5: on tariffs. They're talking about tariffs in a very different
Speaker 5: way than eight years ago. The GOP that's in the
Speaker 5: Congress right now, I think has many more Trump allies
Speaker 5: than they did traditional free trade republicans eight years ago.
Speaker 5: You know, we see TikTok is a massive shift from
Speaker 5: a bipartisan, massively bipartisan legislation that passed saying this is
Speaker 5: a national security threat, it has to be banned. All
Speaker 5: of a sudden. Mike Walls, the incoming National Security Advisor, says,
Speaker 5: this is a great app. I think I wish I
Speaker 5: had it on my phone. That kind of shift is
Speaker 5: what we're seeing right now. Doge is another example. This
Speaker 5: is all things that we're seeing right now, and I
Speaker 5: think when the rubber meets the road, we're going to
Speaker 5: see if this actually sticks. I am a little bit
Speaker 5: skeptical that everyone in the Republican Party will go along
Speaker 5: with broad global tariffs hitting every country, every import. I
Speaker 5: also think we've seen this from spending discussions in Washington.
Speaker 5: When it comes to cutting your base in your district
Speaker 5: or whatever project you care about, you know, they might
Speaker 5: throw a fit. And I think that we'll see when
Speaker 5: the rubber meets the road if they're actually that far
Speaker 5: along in their shrift.
Speaker 2: Well, we have had and you've been involved with some
Speaker 2: of them. I mean, there have already been sort of
Speaker 2: competing narratives coming out of the administration, precisely on tariffs,
Speaker 2: because you have a sort of grown up view supposedly
Speaker 2: that says, oh, they're going to be targeted. There was
Speaker 2: a Washington Post story that talked about that, and then
Speaker 2: quite a lot of pushback that seems to have come
Speaker 2: from even from Donald Trump himself.
Speaker 5: Yes, I will say we'll probably see a repeat of
Speaker 5: what we saw eight years ago on the economic front
Speaker 5: and the battle on the inside on tariffs. We have
Speaker 5: two camps. Largely, even though Scott Besson and Hard Lutnik
Speaker 5: I think are talking about tariffs now in a way
Speaker 5: that are a little bit more in line with the
Speaker 5: Hawks than Steven Mnuchan maybe did eight years ago as
Speaker 5: his Treasury secretary. But we had reported that there is
Speaker 5: an effort under way to stage the tariffs, to not
Speaker 5: hit every country, every reimport with ten percent, twenty percent,
Speaker 5: you name it, at one time, but kind of go gradually.
Speaker 5: And the way it was described to us is this
Speaker 5: is a negotiating play. We open this up, countries will
Speaker 5: come to the table, we get something out of it,
Speaker 5: but we don't cause massive inflation by hitting every good
Speaker 5: with twenty percent. We report it this morning that he's
Speaker 5: not going after China the way he promised on the
Speaker 5: campaign trail. Of all the executive orders he will sign today,
Speaker 5: there's not going to be anything on tariffs. There will
Speaker 5: be no day on tariffs, even though everyone who's been
Speaker 5: following his truth social posts, I think we're expecting China
Speaker 5: tariffs for fentanyl, China tariffs for trade, Mexico Canada tariffs.
Speaker 5: All that seems to have been put on pause for
Speaker 5: we don't know how long. But that's the state of
Speaker 5: play right now. And if you follow his public comments
Speaker 5: but also privately, is what I'm told he has really
Speaker 5: shifted on China to a much less adversarial tone. He
Speaker 5: used to bring up in meetings with people his agrievances
Speaker 5: about Beijing, and now we see he hopped on the phone.
Speaker 5: He invited Chujingping to the inauguration. He's obviously not coming,
Speaker 5: but sent his vice president. He tweeted about world peace
Speaker 5: and he wants to save TikTok. And we also know
Speaker 5: that nothing in Trump world really sticks for a very
Speaker 5: long time. So this could all change tomorrow. If the
Speaker 5: Hawks get in a room with the President and say, hey,
Speaker 5: you know what, you really let down some of your
Speaker 5: supporters who voted for you because you promised across the
Speaker 5: world tariffs and you did nothing on day one, this
Speaker 5: could sway him.
Speaker 2: I mean what is funny is, of course, of all
Speaker 2: the things in Trump's agenda on which both parties he
Speaker 2: has united, it is an aggressive antipathy towards China. So
Speaker 2: if that's the one thing that he steps back from
Speaker 2: will be interesting. But I mean, sorry, Elon, they need
Speaker 2: for the need for pay Brad, this is this all, Elon.
Speaker 2: I mean, you have the you emphasize some of the
Speaker 2: things that the tech well will be quite happy to
Speaker 2: see the back of if they can like the competition
Speaker 2: efforts to reign in tech. But both the control on
Speaker 2: immigration and indeed the measures against China stood to damage
Speaker 2: quite large parts of silicon value will certainly not be
Speaker 2: particularly in their interests. Are they Are they betting that
Speaker 2: Elon's going to be the Trump whisperer.
Speaker 3: And I think we don't know.
Speaker 4: And I think you've put your finger on what will
Speaker 4: be probably the most significant divide within the Trump rule
Speaker 4: and coalition, and that's the line of thought represented by
Speaker 4: Elon and his group of tech CEOs who are now
Speaker 4: in government or advising government. And then I guess traditional
Speaker 4: maga Steve Bannon and the like. And we're already seeing
Speaker 4: clashes on issues like deportation and a T one B visas,
Speaker 4: and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Speaker 4: But I mean, you know, if you go back eight
Speaker 4: years ago, what we know about Trump is that he
Speaker 4: is he is, he can be influenced, and he's quite transactional.
Speaker 3: And so when you saw.
Speaker 4: The parade of CEOs like Tim Cook to the White
Speaker 4: House to carve out relief for companies like Apple, I
Speaker 4: think I think it often comes down to who is
Speaker 4: the loudest voice in his ear and who has he
Speaker 4: talked to most recently.
Speaker 2: So it's a big big tech will be fine. Potentially
Speaker 2: big tech is betting they're fine. Small and medium sized
Speaker 2: tech and other businesses, and probably, I.
Speaker 4: Mean, it really depends, you know. He said at one
Speaker 4: point that he thought Mark Zuckerberg should spend the rest
Speaker 4: of his life in jail. And now zuck Is is
Speaker 4: at the inauguration.
Speaker 3: Today, will the attitude change?
Speaker 4: You know, Elon's interests are in some ways quite opposed
Speaker 4: to Marx, and so if Elon does have the loudest
Speaker 4: voice in the room, maybe Mark's on a little bit
Speaker 4: of trouble.
Speaker 2: Joe mentioned it at the beginning. It is kind of
Speaker 2: breathtaking the one eighty that corporate leaders seem to be
Speaker 2: doing on ESG on a lot of their net zero goals.
Speaker 2: We just saw the six largest US banks all quitting
Speaker 2: the UN sponsored net zero alliance and McDonald's, Walmart. They're
Speaker 2: rolling back all their DEI initiatives. Did they not mean
Speaker 2: it ever? Or is this the thing that's performative?
Speaker 1: It is incredible. I will I'm slightly crossed with Lloyd
Speaker 1: blank Vine for using the monitor thing, which I've used
Speaker 1: countless times, but I advise everyone in this room to
Speaker 1: go look at it. It is the most incredible series of
Speaker 1: headlines that begin with the cannibal as escape from his hideout,
Speaker 1: he will never escape the mountains, and then it ends
Speaker 1: with the Emperor has arrived in Fontaine Lower with I
Speaker 1: think this is imperial match just in fourteen days. But
Speaker 1: that is pretty much what has happened with Suddenly CEOs
Speaker 1: have jumped almost a medling and you can see it
Speaker 1: just in terms of the sort of things they talk about.
Speaker 1: They are moving back from things. I mean a lot
Speaker 1: that some of this is posturing. It's just in the
Speaker 1: same way as some of the diversity stuff maybe was
Speaker 1: posturing in one way. Now some of the retreat is
Speaker 1: the same thing. They don't want to get called out
Speaker 1: for not taking profits as seriously as their rivals, and
Speaker 1: a lot of these things they can fiddle with just
Speaker 1: by changing the language a bit.
Speaker 2: But globally, is there going to be a divide though,
Speaker 2: because I mean you've already seen it. We learned today
Speaker 2: actually the mess is not taking away all of the
Speaker 2: sort of moderating that it had outside of the US.
Speaker 2: How a big company is going to navigate that? Oh,
Speaker 2: I'm very green for the rest of the world, but
Speaker 2: I've given up on all my climate things in the.
Speaker 1: I don't know what Brad. Brad may have different views
Speaker 1: on this, but I tend to think there are two
Speaker 1: different sort of things going on. One is the stuff
Speaker 1: to do with tech and this enormous increase in wealth,
Speaker 1: And if you look at throughout the history of commerce,
Speaker 1: there's always been times where industries shoot from being the
Speaker 1: people who everyone wants to be, whether you're Rockefeller and
Speaker 1: Morgan one hundred years ago, to suddenly being the malefactors
Speaker 1: of great wealth. And notwithstanding the recent love in I
Speaker 1: think there is a real push to get the tech companies,
Speaker 1: which is most obvious in Europe because they're all American,
Speaker 1: but I think is generally there and it's going to
Speaker 1: have touch points. We've got a film coming out on
Speaker 1: the number of children who died because they'd be pushed
Speaker 1: towards suicide videos and things like that. There is a
Speaker 1: lot of nasty stuff around the tech companies per se,
Speaker 1: and that's one issue, and we'll see what happens on that,
Speaker 1: and that's obviously slightly altered by Elon's presence. But the
Speaker 1: other one, more generally is business. I think on the whole.
Speaker 1: You know, most business people, there's quite a lot to
Speaker 1: gain from Trump if he does deregulate. Two big things
Speaker 1: they don't like is one the idea of immigration taking
Speaker 1: taking away workers they would need. And as Jenny was saying,
Speaker 1: on tariffs, and that will be the area. But I do, yes,
Speaker 1: I do think there is a there are divides there
Speaker 1: and there will be a big divide between Europe and America.
Speaker 1: I think that's very difficult to avoid.
Speaker 2: Have you seen, Jenny, have you seen sort of in
Speaker 2: the in Washington and elsewhere, anyone kind of standing up
Speaker 2: for DEI or well in climate I mean, there's a
Speaker 2: lot of support in Congress for still continuing to come
Speaker 2: up climate change.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but there's only so much you can do when
Speaker 5: you're in the minority in both houses, so everything they
Speaker 5: say kind of goes into avoid. I don't see anything
Speaker 5: coming together as an actual initiative, you know, legislation they
Speaker 5: can't really pass without any Republicans, So it's sort of statements.
Speaker 4: Yeah, And can I just add, I mean, for at
Speaker 4: least for tech CEOs, they have seen, they have watched
Speaker 4: as both the legal and the political environment shifted. So
Speaker 4: the Supreme Court struck down race based admissions at Harvard,
Speaker 4: you know, in terms of the political environment, just what
Speaker 4: seems to be like a full shift away from the
Speaker 4: principles of DEI. For a long time, they were criticized
Speaker 4: for creating a discriminatory environment.
Speaker 3: They you know, did these.
Speaker 4: Annual transparency reports around the makeup of their workforces and
Speaker 4: essentially showed no progress and got clobbered year after year.
Speaker 4: And so I do think there's a feeling of like
Speaker 4: genuine relief that they can, with political safety kind of
Speaker 4: retreat from some of these commitments.
Speaker 3: And I think at least in the US, there's a
Speaker 3: realization that the population is.
Speaker 4: A lot more conservative than what was if you look
Speaker 4: at poles surrounding like mass deportation. You know, generally it
Speaker 4: feels like, and the election demonstrated it, that the country
Speaker 4: is supporting some of.
Speaker 3: These Trump ideals.
Speaker 4: And so with that cover, the tech CEOs at least
Speaker 4: feel they're on safe ground to retreat from some of
Speaker 4: these things that always made them feel uncomfortable.
Speaker 2: There had been a lot of hand ringing around the
Speaker 2: development of AI and how the training of the large
Speaker 2: language models and others on data was inherently biasing them
Speaker 2: in favor of you know, stereotypes that came alongside the
Speaker 2: DEI agenda, you know, concern about that. Do you think
Speaker 2: that's going to stay or do will companies now feel
Speaker 2: that I have to work about.
Speaker 4: Well, Zuckerberg just promised a lot more masculine energy and
Speaker 4: the Facebook, so I don't look, I mean, I think
Speaker 4: we're going to still hear those critiques level at the
Speaker 4: tech companies, and I don't know if in this environment
Speaker 4: they will have as much traction as they once did.
Speaker 2: So, Jenny, we have already talked implicitly about this, but
Speaker 2: I'm interested in how it feels as a reporter on
Speaker 2: the ground. There's always been a lot of corporate interests
Speaker 2: behind the scenes, particularly in US politics and policy making,
Speaker 2: but a lot of people have been sort of taken
Speaker 2: aback by or found it jarring that just the very
Speaker 2: explicit corporate interests literally sitting behind the president as he
Speaker 2: gets inaugurated, the idea that policy is potentially being as
Speaker 2: affected by Elon Musk and his interests as any kind
Speaker 2: of broader ideological agendas. How does that affect the way
Speaker 2: you're reporting and where the team's reporting.
Speaker 5: Well, first of all, what was very different this time
Speaker 5: around was trum Ran his entire transition out of mar Lago,
Speaker 5: which obviously there's no access for press, so it was
Speaker 5: very hard to find out which CEOs he was dining with,
Speaker 5: and that matters to the policymaking or jobs. You know,
Speaker 5: everyone's there for a reason or an agenda, so that
Speaker 5: was really different. It feels more explicit than it did
Speaker 5: eight years ago because he came out of the gate
Speaker 5: starting trade wars, and I remember talking to companies or
Speaker 5: their lobbyists in DC and everyone was terrified to be
Speaker 5: named in a tweet. So if you could just lay
Speaker 5: low and deal with him behind the scenes, that was
Speaker 5: sort of how big companies were approaching it last time around.
Speaker 5: This time around, it seems like everyone is explicitly kissing
Speaker 5: the rank. The story you mentioned also had the good
Speaker 5: anecdote about the Coca Cola bottle in the end, they're
Speaker 5: made a special inauguration edition. So everyone is out there
Speaker 5: now on whatever truth, social X, any platform they can
Speaker 5: say I am meeting with Trump, I am close to Trump.
Speaker 5: That is much more explicit this time around. It obviously
Speaker 5: will create I think instability in the way that every
Speaker 5: single person that can go into the White House or
Speaker 5: to mar A Lago to spend the weekend. There can't
Speaker 5: shift policy on the fly, so it might be for
Speaker 5: US reporters we might actually have a solid story but
Speaker 5: are unaware that the president is having dinner in mar
Speaker 5: A Lago with you name it and then completely shift
Speaker 5: his policies. So I think the pace was already very
Speaker 5: fast last time around, but the mar A Lago addition,
Speaker 5: I think an access to this time around will be
Speaker 5: could be more challenging and more interesting to figure out
Speaker 5: how we well.
Speaker 2: It's true that we'd had an economic statecraft team pretty
Speaker 2: much since Trump got elected the first time, and this
Speaker 2: time is very much or at least alongside that, we
Speaker 2: also have the corporate statecraft team, and I guess we'll
Speaker 2: see how they both do. I mean, John I said
Speaker 2: at the start that in a sense, this was many
Speaker 2: people on the outside of the US to say, well,
Speaker 2: this is nothing new. There's always been a lot of
Speaker 2: business interests involved in US policy, and there's plenty of
Speaker 2: people I've spoken to international policy makers, particularly, I would say,
Speaker 2: in what you might call the global South, who say,
Speaker 2: thank goodness, we now have a nakedly transactional president. You know,
Speaker 2: in America is on the world stage admitting that it's
Speaker 2: totally self interested and it's just out for its own interest,
Speaker 2: just like every other country, and it's not pretending to
Speaker 2: have all these high ideals. You know, this is a
Speaker 2: government I can do business with.
Speaker 1: I think there is a degree of that, definitely, you
Speaker 1: can feel it. The only thing is on that I
Speaker 1: sort of be careful what you wish for, because in general,
Speaker 1: that world of free trade and globalization which people like
Speaker 1: me supported and which I think Donald Trump said I
Speaker 1: was wrong about everything all my life, specially tariff, especially tarist,
Speaker 1: but that was a world that enriched the poorer world,
Speaker 1: and I think from that point of view, the global
Speaker 1: South would be ill advised to celebrate this thing. I
Speaker 1: can see why that if you are a copper magnate
Speaker 1: in some place, this might sound great in the short term.
Speaker 1: And yes, it is perhaps more honest than some of
Speaker 1: the talk about talking about freedom and then coming in
Speaker 1: to beat people up behind it. But I think you
Speaker 1: have to be careful what you wish for. I did
Speaker 1: listen to Jenny and a bit. It did strike me
Speaker 1: that some of this stuff could reverse relatively quickly. On Trump,
Speaker 1: you know, he does deeply believe in tariffs. I think
Speaker 1: it's always been a been a constancy of his. So
Speaker 1: at some point there is going to be an argument
Speaker 1: with the tech people on Trump and Elon at some
Speaker 1: point that could come apart, and more generally, I think
Speaker 1: on things like DEI and greenery without signing too sort
Speaker 1: of bled about it, there are other forces that will
Speaker 1: keep pushing it forward. One is just the pressure from investors,
Speaker 1: which I don't think will change that much in terms
Speaker 1: of different categories. Secondly, it is on climate change. You
Speaker 1: just have the fact that we have to deal with
Speaker 1: the climate, and I think lots of people see that.
Speaker 1: I think at the end, yes, you might see changes,
Speaker 1: but I think I would still expect corporations will retreat
Speaker 1: from some of the more publicly extreme versions of DEIS
Speaker 1: you might put it. But I don't think that's going
Speaker 1: to be. It's not going to go all the way
Speaker 1: back to how it was in the nineteen fifties, where
Speaker 1: a group of white men sat and decided everything.
Speaker 2: And in short term, I think the biggest thing internationally
Speaker 2: that people will be dealing with is the global financial
Speaker 2: side effects of everyone betting on a sort of super
Speaker 2: sore away America that potentially has unsustainable growth but certainly
Speaker 2: inflicts higher costs of borrowing.
Speaker 1: You already see the bond rate, the bomb market. I
Speaker 1: think I've put a Trump in the bond market will
Speaker 1: police you, and that seems to be what's happening. Seems
Speaker 1: to be the one thing he's frightened of is if
Speaker 1: the bomb market turns on you. That that's something that
Speaker 1: people can see. And so far Trump has always focused
Speaker 1: We had a very good bit and the last edition
Speaker 1: of Trump andomics on this. Trump is always focused on
Speaker 1: the stock market. If you're running a government to the end,
Speaker 1: it's the bomb market, which probably matters more.
Speaker 2: Jenny, I can't help mentioning we've sort of got you
Speaker 2: mid Atlantic almost because although you're still technically in DC,
Speaker 2: you will be moving to Berlin. And I've sort of
Speaker 2: intrigued how you think reporting this story from Europe. I mean,
Speaker 2: I've said you have to still be on the phone
Speaker 2: to Washington a lot. You'll be kind of covering both sides.
Speaker 2: But how do you think the Europeans will be dealing
Speaker 2: with this agenda?
Speaker 5: From my reporting right now, I would say they're not
Speaker 5: as prepared as they should be. This is a little wonky,
Speaker 5: but there is a big trade case that the Europeans
Speaker 5: brought against China. You might remember China used economic version
Speaker 5: against Lithuania. It was about them opening a Taiwan trade office.
Speaker 5: This has been in the works the entire Biden administration,
Speaker 5: with lots of support from the Biden administration, and they
Speaker 5: are seems set to withdrawa case which we reported last
Speaker 5: week was angering the Trump team because it reinforces their
Speaker 5: belief that the Europeans are weak and they're not willing
Speaker 5: to stand up to China, and Brussels is not willing
Speaker 5: to defend one of its member states, and arguably a
Speaker 5: smaller one. So I will be on the phone with
Speaker 5: people in Washington. I think I will be on the
Speaker 5: phone with people in different capitals and the people that
Speaker 5: Trump sens there.
Speaker 2: On this sort of transactionalism. I mean, if there's goment,
Speaker 2: there are some governments around the world who think, okay,
Speaker 2: this is quite a straightforward thing. We just have to
Speaker 2: work out how to sell something to Trump, how could
Speaker 2: make it be in his interest. Europeans maybe they're a
Speaker 2: lot that they're not so good.
Speaker 1: At being transactional.
Speaker 5: They're a little bit slow compared to the Trump timeline,
Speaker 5: So I think if something gels and Brussels, Trump has
Speaker 5: moved on to a new demand. So the transactional nature
Speaker 5: I think really works well with countries one on one.
Speaker 5: I think Trump obviously seems really close to Jorgo Maloney,
Speaker 5: so he will find an ally and her and Victor orban.
Speaker 5: But once you actually have to respond as a body
Speaker 5: in Brussels, I don't know how well that's going to
Speaker 5: work with the transactional So I could foresee a bunch
Speaker 5: of fights in Europe on how to respond. Do you
Speaker 5: stand up to him if he threatens tariffs or can
Speaker 5: you work out something else that's good for your country.
Speaker 2: I mean John has been an orgy of sort of
Speaker 2: talking Europe down, one could say, in response to the
Speaker 2: to the Donald Trump's victory, and also what's happened in
Speaker 2: financial markets, and just an enormous spotlight on whether it's
Speaker 2: the lack of defense spending, just the lack of speed
Speaker 2: and coming up to coming up with anything. Lack of
Speaker 2: speed when it comes to the economy for sure, any.
Speaker 1: Positive opportunities and there maybe if I was an investor,
Speaker 1: I would be a lot richer than I am. But
Speaker 1: there may be a kind of buying opportunity to the
Speaker 1: extent that Europe is so written down, but it's on
Speaker 1: the face of it, it's hard not to see all
Speaker 1: these pessimistic things about Europe and not add more because
Speaker 1: I think you look at it for exactly the reasons
Speaker 1: Jenny said. They're going to have this question about whether
Speaker 1: they deal within through the European Union, which they are
Speaker 1: supposed to do on trade things. But you know he
Speaker 1: will start the way he acts the where you talked
Speaker 1: to him. He will immediately start ringing Macrol rather than
Speaker 1: particularly going to Brussels. He's not going to pay much
Speaker 1: attention to that. But to me, I went to a
Speaker 1: meeting the other day where a group of bradslot came
Speaker 1: across to see European politicians, and the message they basically
Speaker 1: said is you have no idea about Trump, but you
Speaker 1: are comparatively well informed about Trump compared with AI, because
Speaker 1: you have no idea what AI is going to do
Speaker 1: to the economy, you have no companies that are involved
Speaker 1: in this, You have nothing that you can really show
Speaker 1: the world in this. There isn't anything in continental Europe
Speaker 1: that we even think about, and so I think that
Speaker 1: is almost small friendly. I'm slightly setting bread up to
Speaker 1: say how great Europe is. I certainly yeah.
Speaker 2: My effort to get anything out of you, but it
Speaker 2: was positive on your is completely failed.
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I look hopefully towards Brad, but I'm not sure i'll
Speaker 2: get a better answer.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, Europe does have a couple of interesting
Speaker 4: AI companies, including.
Speaker 1: Which is great, but it is very, very small compared
Speaker 1: with ending in America.
Speaker 4: But it is interesting that a lot of the leaders
Speaker 4: of these AI companies are predicting that will we will
Speaker 4: achieve the next benchmark superintelligence or AGI in the next
Speaker 4: four years and so that you know, monumental economic and
Speaker 4: social change. And we can debate what it is will
Speaker 4: happen on Trump's watch.
Speaker 2: And does it matter in your world that money is
Speaker 2: much more expensive because it's going to get the cost
Speaker 2: of finances going up.
Speaker 3: I don't know that it matters.
Speaker 4: I think I think that's a that's an industry that is,
Speaker 4: you know, focused on creating the next thing, and you know,
Speaker 4: to them and we'll see if it's true and overly optimistic,
Speaker 4: but they believe that, you know, Trump is making it
Speaker 4: safe again for business.
Speaker 2: So in a year's time. I mean hopefully no one
Speaker 2: here will remember what you said, and you know things
Speaker 2: it will just go on the internet.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know no one will listen to it.
Speaker 2: What do you think will be Brad, What do you first,
Speaker 2: what do you think we'll be talking about?
Speaker 4: Well, we'll be talking about Trump, right, because first role
Speaker 4: of Trump is that you must always talk about Donald Trump.
Speaker 4: I think in one year, this honeymoon period where he
Speaker 4: has assembled a very broad coalition of supporters and partners.
Speaker 3: And allies, I think that will end.
Speaker 4: You know that that may not even last the next
Speaker 4: few weeks or is as long as the first you know,
Speaker 4: truly ambitious and.
Speaker 3: Aggressive executive action.
Speaker 4: I think you know, we've had the hottest year on
Speaker 4: record now for the past few years, so we we
Speaker 4: will almost undoubtedly still be talking about climate change and
Speaker 4: whether AI and the requirements data center usage or making
Speaker 4: the problems worse rather than better. And then knock on wood,
Speaker 4: last thing I think we might you know, be talking
Speaker 4: about global conflict. I mean, in the short term, we're
Speaker 4: seeing the sunsetting of the of the war in Gaza,
Speaker 4: maybe some prospects for the war in Ukraine. But if
Speaker 4: we're talking about a deglobalized world, where America is pulling
Speaker 4: back as the world's policeman. Then you know, power uphoors
Speaker 4: a vacuum, and I worry what the next four years
Speaker 4: brings in that.
Speaker 2: Regard, Jenny, that's taken a quite a lot of ground
Speaker 2: for what we'll talk about nam certainly that's the classic, well.
Speaker 5: All the all the hopefully not a virus. I think tariffs,
Speaker 5: tariffs will be Trump's going to be tariff man again.
Speaker 5: I think in the year's time we see him probably
Speaker 5: shift on China or his global tariff. He's probably going
Speaker 5: to do something with the Canada Mexico agreement, rip that up,
Speaker 5: which that will cause a lot of instability. So yeah,
Speaker 5: I think tariffs will be on everyone's mind.
Speaker 1: Again.
Speaker 2: Jenny doesn't always like me quoting her back on this,
Speaker 2: but I am struck by your answer. And when You've
Speaker 2: got one of your many scoops a few years ago,
Speaker 2: and I said, quite early in Trump's term, and I've
Speaker 2: complimented you, and you came back saying, never a dull
Speaker 2: moment in national trade policy, which I had to reply, oh,
Speaker 2: there really have been, but you came into it at
Speaker 2: a very good time exactly, John, what will we be
Speaker 2: talking about.
Speaker 1: Well, basically, I think Jenny and Brad has said all
Speaker 1: the main ones. I sort of agree with Jenny that
Speaker 1: I think that the trade thing will come back in
Speaker 1: because Trump cares about that. And I think also the
Speaker 1: China thing will heat up again. It has to, because
Speaker 1: I think it is the one thing where you can
Speaker 1: unite America. You might be able to unite America and Europe,
Speaker 1: and that by definition brings in both of those sides.
Speaker 1: I think the main thing, and it's a very bad
Speaker 1: cop out, is all the unexpected things. If you went
Speaker 1: back a month ago, whoever thought that South Korea would
Speaker 1: go crazy or that we'd all be looking at pictures
Speaker 1: of Pacific palisades? And the element about being president and
Speaker 1: Trump discovered it in the first Its first rain with
Speaker 1: COVID is that you get surprised by things that come
Speaker 1: at you from the other side of the world Greenland
Speaker 1: Greenland exactly, or places you decide to invade just for
Speaker 1: the hell of it. Those but it will be that
Speaker 1: kind of thing. And you add in on top of
Speaker 1: it all the difficulties of Trump that Trump causes anyone
Speaker 1: who tries to predict things. If you go to China,
Speaker 1: and you meet some very bright people whose job it
Speaker 1: is to try and explain what's happening in America to Xijingping.
Speaker 1: I think for them, the first Trump presidency was a
Speaker 1: complete nightmare because every morning they woke up to discover
Speaker 1: these tweets landing on them with places that they had
Speaker 1: never ever thought of. It's hard to imagine that Jijingping
Speaker 1: was thinking about the Panamaketer Canal and Greenland just a
Speaker 1: few weeks ago, but now someone in Beijing is having
Speaker 1: to muster on that. The obvious answers, what do you think?
Speaker 2: You've said it so well, John, and we've run out
Speaker 2: of time.
Speaker 1: It's such a shame.
Speaker 2: But we have been at various times while we record this,
Speaker 2: I should say that we've been watching footage from Washington,
Speaker 2: the both the outgoing and the incoming president getting into
Speaker 2: the motorcade and heading heading for the inauguration, people people
Speaker 2: filing in, and you kind of get the sense that
Speaker 2: people will be watching DC in various ways throughout this
Speaker 2: World Economic Forum because his return casts such a shadow
Speaker 2: or a spotlight on this, depending on what you think.
Speaker 2: But thank you very much to all of you, to Brad,
Speaker 2: to Jenny, to John and all of you in the
Speaker 2: audience for joining us for this only second ever episode
Speaker 2: of trump Andomics from Bloomberg. We hope all of you
Speaker 2: here enjoyed it and those of you listening raped it
Speaker 2: very highly and review it. It was hosted by me,
Speaker 2: Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Bradstone, Jenny Leonard
Speaker 2: and John Wikelthwaite. Thanks very much, Thank you.