WEBVTT - How the Subtle but Significant Consequences of a Hotter Planet Have Already Begun

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

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<v Speaker 2>Tim Stenebek on Bloomberg Radio. Katie, I know I asked

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<v Speaker 2>you this earlier. I don't know if we were on

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<v Speaker 2>air though, but about going to New Jersey and seeing

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<v Speaker 2>leaves and the fire danger.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I can't actually remember if we were on air

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<v Speaker 3>or not. But yeah, no, I'm.

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<v Speaker 2>Always on air.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh it is always well I live here, but anyway, Yeah, no,

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<v Speaker 3>it was wild this weekend, waking up in Manhattan seeing

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<v Speaker 3>the air quality index above one hundred. Haven't seen that

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<v Speaker 3>in a while. I had to flee to New Jersey,

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<v Speaker 3>at least where I was going in New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 2>I have bad news for you. Yeah, there are wildfires

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<v Speaker 2>in New Jersey and the according to the Associated Press,

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<v Speaker 2>it's been the driest September and October ever.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>New Jersey is now going to issue a drought warning.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be a step that could eventually lead to

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<v Speaker 2>mandatory water restrictions if significant rain doesn't fall soon. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>from California. Yeah, no, this is like what we deal

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<v Speaker 2>with all the time.

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<v Speaker 3>I made a joke, actually I was going to horseback

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<v Speaker 3>rode and I made a joke to my barn manure,

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<v Speaker 3>my barn owner.

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<v Speaker 4>That is relatable.

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<v Speaker 3>I feel like we're in California, like worried about wildfires.

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<v Speaker 3>We're praying for rain, but we're in the great Ston,

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<v Speaker 3>New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 2>So that plus the fire and Prospect Park on Friday night,

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<v Speaker 2>the hurricane intensity that we saw, rising insurance prices scary stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>These are things that we can see coming as a

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<v Speaker 2>result that many scientists would argue of a warming planet

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<v Speaker 2>of climate change, but they're also hitting costs of a

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<v Speaker 2>warming world. And that's what our Ginsung Park writes about

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<v Speaker 2>in his new book. It's called slow Burn, The Hidden

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<v Speaker 2>Costs of a Warming World. The Jinsung Park is assistant

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<v Speaker 2>professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He's author also an

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<v Speaker 2>environmental and labor economist. He joins us this afternoon from

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<v Speaker 2>New York. Jinsun, good to have you with us. It's

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<v Speaker 2>remarkable to hear that there are hidden costs here, because

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<v Speaker 2>this is something that I think is so visceral for

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<v Speaker 2>so many people, no matter where they live right now.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's hidden right now?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Well, first of all, thanks for having me on

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<v Speaker 1>the program. I was smiling a bit when you were

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<v Speaker 1>in the intro talking about the wildfires in New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 1>Certainly something that my wife and I experienced a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of when we were living in California. But that's a

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<v Speaker 1>great case in point of the hidden costs. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>when we talk about wildfires, typically what's most salient and

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<v Speaker 1>visible are the flames, right they burned down homes, they

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<v Speaker 1>force us to evacuate, as very destructive, but at least

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<v Speaker 1>according to recent research by research at Harvard and Stanford

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<v Speaker 1>and elsewhere, the hidden costs associated with wildfires smoke maybe

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<v Speaker 1>just as damaging, if not more so. The last numbers

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<v Speaker 1>that I saw suggest that, you know, maybe dozens of

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<v Speaker 1>people have died due to wildfire flames in the past

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<v Speaker 1>several years in the United States, but the estimates are

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<v Speaker 1>that anywhere between five and fifteen thousand may have died

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<v Speaker 1>every year due to the additional air pollution caused by

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<v Speaker 1>the wildfire smoke, which, as you may know, can travel

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<v Speaker 1>large distances. So that's just one example of the many

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<v Speaker 1>hidden costs. I mean, just to take a step back,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons why I wrote the book is

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<v Speaker 1>is you know, as you mentioned, climate change has become

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<v Speaker 1>such a visceral issue, but it's also a very complex issue,

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<v Speaker 1>and we all need sort of you know, simplifying mental

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<v Speaker 1>heuristics to help us think about it and for better

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<v Speaker 1>or for worse.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>I had the observation that a lot of the discussion

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<v Speaker 1>around climate change is tended to have sort of a

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<v Speaker 1>black or white kind of almost fatalistic hue to it,

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<v Speaker 1>And that's useful if you think about so, it's useful

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<v Speaker 1>to think about climate change, of course, as sort of

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<v Speaker 1>an insurance problem, right, how are we ensuring against the

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<v Speaker 1>risk of potential planetary catastrophe. That's obviously one important way

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<v Speaker 1>to think about it. But one of the additional mental

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<v Speaker 1>heuristics that I certainly hope we can add to our

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<v Speaker 1>toolkit is to think of it as a slow burn, right,

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<v Speaker 1>as not so much an imminent crisis for you know,

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<v Speaker 1>all of life on planet Earth, but more of a

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<v Speaker 1>slow burning kind of degradation of quality of life crisis

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<v Speaker 1>that is already unfolding, sometimes in visually salient ways, but often.

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<v Speaker 4>In hidden ways.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, if you think about it as a slow burn,

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<v Speaker 3>what does that mean in terms of addressing climate change?

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<v Speaker 3>Because it feels like, you know, with so many things,

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<v Speaker 3>there's this big, dramatic event and then there's all this

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<v Speaker 3>urgency created around it to address it. If it is

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<v Speaker 3>a slow burn, do you think that that takes the

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<v Speaker 3>urgency out of trying to combat this problem.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean, that's certainly a risk, and that's probably

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<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons why, you know, there's so much

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<v Speaker 1>disagreement about how we should communicate climate change, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the politics behind it.

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<v Speaker 4>It's always been contentious, you know, and there's.

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<v Speaker 1>Good, I think, a good argument for at least jolting

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<v Speaker 1>us out of our complacency, you know, via images that

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<v Speaker 1>are more you know, salient, and some might argue extreme,

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<v Speaker 1>but I would argue that if you believe in you know,

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<v Speaker 1>evidence based policy, and if you and if you believe

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<v Speaker 1>in the public's ability to understand and digest even some

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<v Speaker 1>modicum of data, the data kind of speaks for itself

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<v Speaker 1>almost overwhelmingly. Now that even even if you think about

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<v Speaker 1>just the economic consequences of the slow burn aspect of

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<v Speaker 1>climate change, putting aside the sort of distant potential annihilation prospect,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the data suggests that it makes cost benefit

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<v Speaker 1>sense from a societal standpoint to aggressively reduced emissions. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>how we communicate that, who we communicate that to, in

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<v Speaker 1>what settings? You know, I'm not an expert in that,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm sure that that will vary. But if you

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<v Speaker 1>care about just understanding the basic economics behind the cost benefit,

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<v Speaker 1>the social cost benefit of reducing greenhouse gas emissions aggressively,

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<v Speaker 1>which is what is it needed right.

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<v Speaker 4>To slow the slow burn? The data sort of speaks

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<v Speaker 4>for itself At this point, I think.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, how do you think about the I think the

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<v Speaker 2>conversation we're having today is going to be a lot

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<v Speaker 2>different than the conversation we would have had two weeks ago,

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<v Speaker 2>because now Trump has been elected to another term. He's

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<v Speaker 2>now tapped former New York Congressman Lee Zelden is EPA chief.

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<v Speaker 2>This is somebody who's a climate skeptic. We have about

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<v Speaker 2>a minute left. We're going to do some news and

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to come back and talk to you more

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<v Speaker 2>about this. But how do you think about the federal

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<v Speaker 2>government and the new administration playing a role in everything

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<v Speaker 2>that you're talking about?

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's a great question. I wish I had a

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<v Speaker 4>crystal ball.

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<v Speaker 1>I was speaking to one of my colleagues the other

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<v Speaker 1>day about we were just speculating, Okay, like, how durable

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<v Speaker 1>do we think the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act

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<v Speaker 1>and other legislative measures on climate change that we're passed

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<v Speaker 1>during the Biden illustration will be over the next four years?

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<v Speaker 1>And we weren't sure. I don't think anyone is sure

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<v Speaker 1>about that. I will just say, since we I know

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<v Speaker 1>we need to break there's a lot of uncertainty there.

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<v Speaker 1>But my read of the data also suggests that there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of momentum that is more a product of

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<v Speaker 1>a combination of previous policy and technical change that I

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<v Speaker 1>imagine will be.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, will be in the background regardless of what.

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<v Speaker 1>The specific policies tomorrow or not taken in this coming administration.

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<v Speaker 4>So maybe that's room for a little bit of hope.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, radio manager, Justin Milliner me and sending us this story.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this is kind of wild, very timely.

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<v Speaker 2>Very timely. New York City Amtrak trains delayed after brushfire

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<v Speaker 2>disrupts rail service. A brushfire east of New York Penn

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<v Speaker 2>Station has spurred power outages for Amtrak trains running too

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<v Speaker 2>and from New Haven, Connecticut, prompting lengthy delays.

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<v Speaker 4>Four passengers.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, apparently According to the agency, trains approaching Pen Station

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<v Speaker 3>are being moved out of the area using diesel powered engines.

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<v Speaker 3>All service between New York Pen Station and New Haven

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<v Speaker 3>suspended for the remainder of the day. Trains between Boston

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<v Speaker 3>South Station and New Haven are operating at limited capacity.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot of unhappy commuters right now. But again,

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<v Speaker 3>like you said, this is because of.

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<v Speaker 2>A brushfire exactly. This is the again, a visceral reminder

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<v Speaker 2>of climate change, given that we've seen record heat in

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<v Speaker 2>the area, record temperatures in the area this month and

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<v Speaker 2>last month. Let's get back to our G Sung Park,

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<v Speaker 2>assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He's also an

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<v Speaker 2>environmental and labor activist. He's got a new book out.

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<v Speaker 2>It's called Slowburn, The Hidden Costs of a Warming World.

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<v Speaker 2>He joins us once again from New York. G Sung,

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<v Speaker 2>before we went and did some news, you mentioned that

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<v Speaker 2>you were thinking a way you were thinking about the

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<v Speaker 2>new administration when it comes to policy, when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to the inflation reduction. I'm wondering how you think about

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<v Speaker 2>government role here versus the role of the market versus

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<v Speaker 2>the role of individuals. It's a big issue.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, absolutely, and so maybe it's worth taking a step

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<v Speaker 1>back and separating out what realm in which we are

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<v Speaker 1>referring to it when it comes to climate change. The

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<v Speaker 1>right you can think about mitigation, right, reducing emissions, the

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<v Speaker 1>energy transition, whatever name you want to put to it.

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<v Speaker 4>Right, the government role.

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<v Speaker 1>The role of government there is in some ways unambiguous,

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<v Speaker 1>at least in terms of whether there should be some

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<v Speaker 1>government role, and we can get into why that is.

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<v Speaker 1>But the short story is that, you know, climate change

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<v Speaker 1>constitutes a classic negative externality problem and a global public

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<v Speaker 1>good problem, and so government needs to play some role

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<v Speaker 1>in setting the market signals straight. Of course, that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean that government is the only player it. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a huge role to be played by the private sector.

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<v Speaker 1>We could also talk about what is the government's role

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<v Speaker 1>in adaptation. I mean, you mentioned the brush fire and

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<v Speaker 1>what it has done to disrupting rail service between Penn

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<v Speaker 1>Station and New Haven. I mean that's just one example

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<v Speaker 1>of many ways in which you know, we can expect

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<v Speaker 1>ongoing climate change regardless of what we do in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of emissions reductions, how how climate change will affect our

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<v Speaker 1>quality of life, and what the government role is there

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of.

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<v Speaker 4>Helping us adapt to those risk is less clear. I

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<v Speaker 4>think I think it.

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<v Speaker 1>Will depend in large part on you know, what are

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<v Speaker 1>the marketing perfections at play when it comes to these

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of adaptation decisions. Are there important information asymmetries or

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<v Speaker 1>is there sort of a coordination role to be played.

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<v Speaker 1>But to answer your question, yeah, I think it kind

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<v Speaker 1>of depends, but certainly in the context of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>mitigating emissions so that we can slow global warming climate

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<v Speaker 1>change overall, Yeah, I think it's quite quite obvious that

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<v Speaker 1>government has to play at least to catalyzing and sort

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<v Speaker 1>of price signal setting role, if that makes sense, whether

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<v Speaker 1>that's with a price on carbon or something else.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's talk a little bit more about consequences, because you

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<v Speaker 3>make the point in the book that it's not just

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<v Speaker 3>some of the obvious day to day consequences that you

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<v Speaker 3>might think of, but you also talk about lower test

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<v Speaker 3>scores for example, you talk about higher crime rates, not

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<v Speaker 3>issues that people would typically associate with a hotter planet.

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<v Speaker 3>Draw that link for.

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<v Speaker 4>Us, Yeah, sure, And again you know that was one

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<v Speaker 4>of the motivations.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, the research that I've engaged in and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>familiar with that there's this increasingly intricate and compelling story

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<v Speaker 1>of how even so called non catastrophic amounts of warming

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<v Speaker 1>appear to have you know, subtle but cumulatively meaningful and

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<v Speaker 1>pervasive consequences for day to day life.

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<v Speaker 4>So you mentioned test scores.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, there are number of studies that now show

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<v Speaker 1>that students taking their exams on a hot day, even

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<v Speaker 1>in a place like New York City, which you know

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the materially wealthiest you know, places on Earth.

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<v Speaker 4>Nevertheless, students who take their.

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<v Speaker 1>Exam on a ninety degree day, you know, roughly ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent less likely these are New York City regions exams

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<v Speaker 1>to pass a given subject.

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<v Speaker 3>You know.

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<v Speaker 1>Another example that may not be obvious is just thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about how climate.

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<v Speaker 4>Change interacts with the world of work.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, even in the United States, again, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most highly industrialized countries in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>there are many millions of workers, in fact, over two

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<v Speaker 1>thirds of the roughly one hundred million or so workers

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<v Speaker 1>without a bachelor's degree who are routinely exposed to the

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<v Speaker 1>elements on the job. Agriculture workers construction workers are you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the first two categories that come to mind, but there

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<v Speaker 1>are many others, you know, utility repair crew, warehouse workers,

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<v Speaker 1>even in some indoor settings where there are already ambient

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<v Speaker 1>sources of heat or cooling, is difficult. You know, there's

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<v Speaker 1>evidence to suggest that when temperatures rise, and they don't

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<v Speaker 1>have to be in the triple digits, you know, even

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<v Speaker 1>moderately elevated temperatures in the eighties and nineties can lead

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<v Speaker 1>to a significant uptick in the risk of serious accident

0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.840
<v Speaker 1>or injury or illness on the job. So, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>these are the kinds of you know, what I'm calling

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<v Speaker 1>subtle climate risks that are more pervasive than first meets

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<v Speaker 1>the eye, and which you know, the data and the

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<v Speaker 1>research that have come online in the past decade plus

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 1>given so much better insight into g some.

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<v Speaker 2>We have a little over a minute left, so I

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<v Speaker 2>want to make sure I get this end it because

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<v Speaker 2>it's crucial. How do we make people care? We just

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<v Speaker 2>went through an election where overwhelmingly what we learned was

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<v Speaker 2>the only thing that matters is inflation in the economy.

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<v Speaker 2>It's what polls are showing us how people feel about

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<v Speaker 2>their economic situation. How do you get them to care

0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 2>about the temperature that kids take a test in when

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<v Speaker 2>they can't afford to feed their family at the grocery store.

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<v Speaker 4>That's a great question. I don't know if I have

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<v Speaker 4>a great answer to him.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, one way that I've continued to think

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<v Speaker 1>about this problem is, you know, by clarifying the links

0:14:19.240 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>between something like climate change and the economy and making it,

0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:29.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe moving climate change as an issue out

0:14:29.840 --> 0:14:34.280
<v Speaker 1>of what has historically been you know, an environmental policy

0:14:34.400 --> 0:14:37.680
<v Speaker 1>issue per se into a more Hey, it actually matters

0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:42.560
<v Speaker 1>for the broader operating you know, infrastructure of the economy.

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:47.040
<v Speaker 1>It matters for how we understand economic well being broadly,

0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>because shoot, that may be one way we make people

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<v Speaker 1>to care a little bit more.

0:14:52.040 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 4>But I don't have a great answer, to.

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<v Speaker 2>Be honest, Yeah, I don't know either. It's something that

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<v Speaker 2>I know a lot of people are thinking about right now.

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 2>We really appreciate you taking the this afternoon, spending so

0:15:01.560 --> 0:15:04.600
<v Speaker 2>much time with us. The new book Slow Burned The

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<v Speaker 2>Hidden Costs of a Warming World. That's our g Sung Park,

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<v Speaker 2>Assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania, also an environmental

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<v Speaker 2>and labor economist,