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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sportsman.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go there growing in.

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Speaker 3: I'm saying it's a cash touch.

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Speaker 1: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to win.

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Speaker 3: God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 1: You want to pa.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 5: Hello everyone, Welcome back to the NFL Week fifteen Fantasy

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Speaker 5: Flex on the Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Freeman, the

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Speaker 5: editor in chief of Fantasy Labs, and with me as

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Speaker 5: always is Sean Corner and Chris Raymond. Shawn is our

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Speaker 5: director of predictive Analytics at one of the top end

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Speaker 5: season fantasy football rankers for the past half decade, and

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Speaker 5: Chris is a senior editor and analyst at the Action

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Speaker 5: Network and a co host of the Action Network show

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Speaker 5: on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio. In this episode, we're breaking

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Speaker 5: down the players at the top of our rankings, which

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Speaker 5: are available at Action network dot com slash Fantasy. We

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Speaker 5: were discussing the guys we're high and low on, and

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Speaker 5: we were speculating on some props gentlemen, before we jump

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Speaker 5: into Week fifteen. Let's look back briefly at Week fourteen.

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Speaker 5: There were a lot of injuries, especially at wide receiver

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Speaker 5: and tight end. It was a week strewn with randomness.

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Speaker 5: How was it for you, guys and what caught your

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Speaker 5: eye most.

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Speaker 6: One of the things that surprised me of the most

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Speaker 6: Week fourteen was just how good the Titans offense is

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Speaker 6: right now. And this is coming from somebody that was

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Speaker 6: touting Ryan Hill's my top QB streamer last week. You know,

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Speaker 6: I have a ton of Derek Henry and best ball.

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Speaker 6: He's probably my highest owned running back aside from Latavius Murray.

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Speaker 6: But still, you know, just seeing the points are putting

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Speaker 6: up and how reliable they are on fantasy, it's still

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Speaker 6: shocked me. If you told me before the season started

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Speaker 6: that I'd have Ryan Tannehill ranked as a top ten

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Speaker 6: QB heading into the fantasy playoffs, that would have been

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Speaker 6: one of the crazier things that you could have told

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Speaker 6: me before the season start. It's surprising, how you know,

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Speaker 6: heading into this week they can support a top ten

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Speaker 6: QB and a top three running back, and that running

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Speaker 6: back isn't even involved in the passing game.

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Speaker 2: So that's just one of the things that's stuck out the.

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Speaker 6: Most in his Week fourteen is we have to take

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Speaker 6: this Titans offense seriously.

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Speaker 5: So two things. One, AJ Brown I think is fascinating.

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Speaker 5: He's going it looks like he's going to be a

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Speaker 5: great player moving forward, especially next year. Andre Johnson is

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Speaker 5: the comp that I have for him. That just that's

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Speaker 5: the comp I had before he entered the draft. That's

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Speaker 5: what he looks like. He's just this big bodied, athletic

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Speaker 5: guy out there who can get lots of yards after

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Speaker 5: the catch. And then the second thing, a friend of

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Speaker 5: mine who is a Chiefs fan by the way, and

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Speaker 5: has Mahomes and Tannehill on his fantasy team texted and said,

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Speaker 5: I can't start Tannehill over Mahomes this week, right, But

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Speaker 5: like the fact that it's even in the conversation is

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Speaker 5: something that you might even think about is pretty amazing

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Speaker 5: at this point of the year, Raybon, what struck you.

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Speaker 1: A couple of things.

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Speaker 7: Number one is something that I think we've been seeing

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Speaker 7: for like the last three or four weeks now, and

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Speaker 7: the Jaguars defense looks like it just quit. Started talking

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Speaker 7: about that with Stucky on the betting pot a few

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Speaker 7: weeks ago, and it's just every week now they're just

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Speaker 7: giving up tons of yards on the ground, just no

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Speaker 7: resistance whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: So that that kind of stuck out.

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Speaker 7: And then one of those things we always talk about

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Speaker 7: is like balancing the matchup with the you know, the

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Speaker 7: player and not over adjusting. And I think Drew Brees

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Speaker 7: really kind of stuck out as a guy who you know,

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Speaker 7: we I think we all had ranked pretty low. And

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Speaker 7: just like I didn't see that shootout coming. I know

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Speaker 7: a couple of San Francisco defenders got hurt throughout that game.

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Speaker 7: But if you would have told me Drew Brees was

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Speaker 7: going to account for six touchdowns for a Saints team

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Speaker 7: that's usually you know, been a little bit more kind

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Speaker 7: of balanced this year and in years past, and I

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Speaker 7: just wouldn't have seen it.

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Speaker 1: So that's one of those things that kind of stuck out.

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Speaker 7: Is you know, especially in DFS, those contrarian shootout spots,

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Speaker 7: just two good teams really can sometimes you know, be

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Speaker 7: GPP winners. So you know, that's something that kind of

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Speaker 7: keep tinkering with going forward.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, didn't both teams outscore the game total?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Like it was just nuts man.

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Speaker 7: A lot of people I think use the Vegas lines

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Speaker 7: as like gospel and use them to kind of project

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Speaker 7: touchdowns and points and all that stuff where and you

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Speaker 7: and they're very accurate, but there are going to be

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Speaker 7: times when you know the lines are off, and so

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Speaker 7: you have to kind of think about that and think

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Speaker 7: about certain spots where maybe the lines are off. You

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Speaker 7: can look at like the sharp money, you know, where's

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Speaker 7: it going? Is it going to the over or under?

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Speaker 7: And things like that, So something keep in mind as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean a couple of things.

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Speaker 5: One, I just almost always blind bet the over at

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Speaker 5: the super Dome anyway, just because. And but I still

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Speaker 5: wouldn't have expected Drew Brees to go off the way

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Speaker 5: that he did. But you know, thinking about the forty

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Speaker 5: nine ers defense, Jawiskey Tart is a really important part

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Speaker 5: of their defense against tight ends. The Saints had three

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Speaker 5: touchdowns to tight ends this week. Their first three touchdowns

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Speaker 5: were all to tight ends. I mean, at least at

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Speaker 5: the beginning of that game. Nine Ers really seemed to

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Speaker 5: miss Jaquiski Tart, so kind of interesting to see how

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Speaker 5: they will address that position moving forward. Let's get into

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Speaker 5: the week fifteen rankings that we have at the top

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Speaker 5: of the rankings for quarterback. I mean, no surprise, Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 5: Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes. Jackson is playing on Thursday night

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Speaker 5: against the Jets, Russell Wilson on the road against the Panthers,

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Speaker 5: Mahomes at home against the Broncos. I want to kick

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Speaker 5: it to you first. Who are you relatively high on

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Speaker 5: this week?

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Speaker 6: I already mentioned him, but Ryan Tannehill top ten QB

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Speaker 6: for me this week. I think he opens up as

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Speaker 6: my QB nine. They're at home against the Texans, who

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Speaker 6: just laid down and let Drew Locke throw for over

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Speaker 6: three hundred yards and three touchdowns on them. So this

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Speaker 6: is a great matchup. And you know Derrick Henry, he's

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Speaker 6: been dealing with that hamstring injury and he had his

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Speaker 6: last carry of the game was actually in the third

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Speaker 6: quarter when it was a seven point game. So I

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Speaker 6: think typically we'd expect them to just give Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 6: you know, twenty five carries here, but I think that

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Speaker 6: they could limit him somewhat and just lean on Ryan

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Speaker 6: Tannehill more.

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Speaker 4: In this game.

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Speaker 6: So I think, you know, his floor and ceiling this

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Speaker 6: week is pretty high. So I'm really high on Ryan

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Speaker 6: Tannehill this week. I never thought I'd say that this year,

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Speaker 6: but here we are.

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Speaker 3: All right, Raybon, what about you?

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Speaker 7: So, David Blou, You know, Tampa Bay has just been

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Speaker 7: the ultimate pass funnal this season. And one thing we

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Speaker 7: have seen with some of these young, unproven quarterbacks is

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Speaker 7: that when they have good wide receivers to wean on,

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Speaker 7: they tend to kind of target them a lot and

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Speaker 7: that can get them some numbers. So, you know, Tampa

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Speaker 7: Bay has been a team that all year has been

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Speaker 7: a top five run defense.

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Speaker 1: They're getting a little bit better in pass defense.

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Speaker 7: They're not as horrible as they were maybe around the

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Speaker 7: mid season point, but they're still twenty fifth in schedule

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Speaker 7: adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks on the year.

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Speaker 7: And you don't really expect Detroit to get much going,

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Speaker 7: you know, both Scarboro will probably get his fifteen carries,

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Speaker 7: but you wouldn't expect too much production. So I think

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Speaker 7: with Gallada Jones a Moondoa, Detroit still has enough guys

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Speaker 7: that can get open against that secondary that I think

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Speaker 7: Bloo could have a sneaky game And he's down at

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Speaker 7: five points three k on DraftKings, so that's a sneaky play.

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Speaker 7: He's my QB seventeen this week, and I think even

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Speaker 7: you know, there's not many points separating like the QB

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Speaker 7: twelve to seventeen, So if you're desperate for a streamer

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Speaker 7: or something like that, I don't think he's the worst option.

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Speaker 7: And I also think Gardner Minshew and Derek Carr that

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Speaker 7: could be a sneaky shootout game because again, you know

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Speaker 7: Jaguars and I know there's no DJ chart, but the

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Speaker 7: Oprah Raiders defense they get no pressure. The Jags defense

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Speaker 7: has been horrible and so that usually you know, you

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Speaker 7: need to kind of make up.

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Speaker 1: Those points on the other side.

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Speaker 7: So I think both of those guys could have some

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Speaker 7: success and they're pretty cheap as well on draftings.

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Speaker 5: To your point about the Tampa Bay defense, they allow

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Speaker 5: the most air yards in your yards after the catch

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Speaker 5: combined to opposing offenses, so there could be a lot

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Speaker 5: of shootout potential there for Detroit and then Narrative Street.

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Speaker 5: This is the last game for the Raiders in Oakland,

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Speaker 5: so you know, adjust your rankings. The guy that I'm

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Speaker 5: relatively high on is Deshaun Watson, who has been great

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Speaker 5: as an underdog and also the big thing. Tennessee is

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Speaker 5: down its top three perim cornerbacks, and there, I mean

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Speaker 5: their past defense is the weakness in their defense anyway,

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Speaker 5: and then it's weaker than it typically is. And normally

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Speaker 5: I don't need much incentive to be pretty high on

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Speaker 5: Deshaun Watson anyway, but I'm relatively high on him. I

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Speaker 5: have him as the number two quarterback and both of

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Speaker 5: you guys have him as the number four quarterback. Honestly,

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Speaker 5: probably not that big of a difference in terms of

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Speaker 5: like projected points there, but I would I would put

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Speaker 5: him ahead of some other guys this week, like Russell

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Speaker 5: Wilson or Mahomes, you know. So he's He's someone I'm

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Speaker 5: relatively high on. Sean who are you relatively low on?

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Speaker 6: So I'm relatively low on Jared Goff this week we've

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Speaker 6: seen him, I think predictably have two good games now

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Speaker 6: against the Cardinals and Seahawks, who don't really generate much pressure.

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Speaker 6: I think if you look at Jared Goff's game, you

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Speaker 6: can basically pinpoint when he's going to have a good

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Speaker 6: game is against teams that don't really apply much pressure,

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Speaker 6: and he struggles against you know, teams that are you know,

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Speaker 6: a top ten team and pressure created, and you know

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Speaker 6: Dallas is better getting pressure than the previous two teams

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Speaker 6: that they ranked seventh this year at twenty five point seven.

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Speaker 6: I ran some aggression tests on it, and it's highly correlated.

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Speaker 6: You would expect Jared Goff to average about four less

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Speaker 6: points this week against a team like that. So on

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Speaker 6: the road at Dallas, it's situation. I'm fading golf. Hopefully

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Speaker 6: he'll be over owned due to the previous two games

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Speaker 6: where he's been on fire, but I have him all

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Speaker 6: the way down at QB twenty one this week.

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Speaker 5: I'm there with you. I have GoF it. I hadn't

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Speaker 5: really even looked at this all that much. I have

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Speaker 5: gofic quarterback twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: I just saw that.

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Speaker 5: Wow, that's probably too low. Probably gonna need to adjust that.

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Speaker 5: But shooting from the hip, I'm with you on the

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Speaker 5: fading golf bandwagon this week, Chris, what about you hurry

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Speaker 5: relatively low on.

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Speaker 7: So I'm still you know, mentioned that San Francisco missing

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Speaker 7: a couple or at least banged up on defense. Looks

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Speaker 7: like d Ford is gonna miss some more time. But

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Speaker 7: still fading that that New Orleans outlier with Matt Ryan

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Speaker 7: this week. He's my QB twenty six. It just Calvin

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Speaker 7: Ridley is out. That's an important piece for their pass game.

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Speaker 7: Austin Hooper does a lot of his damage, you know,

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Speaker 7: when they're trailing, So I think he can put up

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Speaker 7: his numbers. But this is still not a situation where

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Speaker 7: you feel too good about Matt Ryan.

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Speaker 1: San Francisco can still get a ton of pressure.

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Speaker 7: Matt Ryan not a guy who is that of dept

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Speaker 7: at moving around the pocket, and outside of the Saints,

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Speaker 7: San Francisco has really been lights out against quarterbacks that

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Speaker 7: don't move. You know that their worst games have been

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Speaker 7: against Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson and pretty

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Speaker 7: much everybody else has struggled. So Matt Ryan I think

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Speaker 7: is still too much of a risk GPP in DFSGPP,

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Speaker 7: especially after last week, I think that's where you want

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Speaker 7: to play him.

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Speaker 1: But in season long, I would fade him this week,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 5: The guy I'm relatively low on already mentioned him, Mahomes.

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Speaker 5: Love Mahomes, great quarterback, but he has regressed some this

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Speaker 5: year just in terms of his production, not in terms

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Speaker 5: of his overall skill set. Because I still think that

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Speaker 5: He's one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but

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Speaker 5: just not quite as productive this year playing at Arrowhead,

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Speaker 5: which actually is not a good thing, especially in December,

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Speaker 5: it starts to get really cold. Both offenses, you know,

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Speaker 5: the Chiefs and the opposing offense tend to score a

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Speaker 5: fewer points there. And it's a tough matchup going against

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Speaker 5: the Broncos, who are you know, like in bottom eight

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Speaker 5: in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. And typically we

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Speaker 5: see in December divisional unders hit at a pretty high rate.

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Speaker 5: Just because you have two teams that are familiar with

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Speaker 5: each other playing for the second time in the season.

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Speaker 3: Both teams tend to just be worn down at that point.

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Speaker 5: I think they play a little bit slower, with a

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Speaker 5: little more conservativeism in terms.

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Speaker 3: Of how they just want to approach the game.

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Speaker 5: So I'm thinking that that game will probably go under

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Speaker 5: and there will just be fewer points that we see.

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Speaker 5: So I still like Mahomes have him as a top

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Speaker 5: five quarterback, but I don't have him in the top three.

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Speaker 5: So Sean, I'm going to kick it to you for

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Speaker 5: our quarterback prop. By the way, everyone should check out

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Speaker 5: the Fantasy lapse prop tool, which going back to last season,

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Speaker 5: has a hit rate of sixty percent on the props

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Speaker 5: that have a bet quality of ten.

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Speaker 3: Sean, what do you have for us at quarterback?

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Speaker 6: I've mentioned him probably forty five times already. We're gonna

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Speaker 6: go back to him, Ryan Tannehill. So total passing yards

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Speaker 6: at home against the Texans this week. His passing yard

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Speaker 6: projection is never that high. I mean, his value has

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Speaker 6: been touchdown passes and rushing yards. So I'm curious to

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Speaker 6: hear you guys have him on passing yards this week.

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Speaker 6: I have it at two fifty five and a half

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Speaker 6: and I have no clue if that's way too high

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Speaker 6: or way too low.

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Speaker 1: Right now, I have him met two seventy six.

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Speaker 7: And that like so, Houston has just been since they

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Speaker 7: lost JJ Watte, especially on that pass defense has been

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Speaker 7: really bad, and their devo over the middle is league worst,

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Speaker 7: and middle passing is essentially the most efficient passing. Like

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Speaker 7: the worst defenses are bad over the middle, of the

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Speaker 7: best pass offenses are able to kind of get things

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Speaker 7: going over the middle. And then you know, I have

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Speaker 7: Tannehill throwing for over eight yards per attempt in this

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Speaker 7: matchup thirty three attempts and all the way up at

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Speaker 7: eight point four yards in attempt, so yeah, I have

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Speaker 7: him at two seventy six.

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Speaker 3: Sean, how many attempts do you have Tannehill projected.

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Speaker 6: For I'm at thirty three point six, so pretty similar.

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Speaker 3: I have him around two forty five. I'll take the under. There,

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Speaker 3: you're you're pretty much splitting the difference between.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think your line.

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Speaker 6: Your line might be where sportsbooks open up the player prop.

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Speaker 6: I rarely bet the over on a quarterback passing yards,

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Speaker 6: but I think this week, if they open up Tannehill

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Speaker 6: in the two forties, I think I will pull the

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Speaker 6: trigger on the over.

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Speaker 7: You made a good point though about about Derek Henry

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Speaker 7: because in the midst of Tannehill balling out, like Derek

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Speaker 7: Henry's been eating up a ton of yards on the

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Speaker 7: ground as well, Like he's going over one hundred every game.

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Speaker 7: So if he's hampered at all, yeah, that's just more

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Speaker 7: like yardage that that cannon Hill may have to pick

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Speaker 7: up because that offense seems to be efficient either way.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, there's some blow up potential here for tam

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Speaker 1: And like like.

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Speaker 6: Freeman mentioned earlier, I forgot to mention it, but the

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Speaker 6: you know, aj Brown connection looks real, and he's one

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Speaker 6: of the guys we're heading into my dynasty draft that

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Speaker 6: really wanted to get him this year.

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Speaker 2: But when he lent in Tennessee, I soured on him

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Speaker 2: a bit. Now I regret it.

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Speaker 6: You know, I didn't realize Tama Hill would take over

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Speaker 6: and have a top scoring offense here. So yeah, AJ

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Speaker 6: Brown his breakout I think helps me have confidence in

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Speaker 6: Ryan Tannehill going for it if this, if this turns

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Speaker 6: out to be the last few weeks where they just

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Speaker 6: blow up.

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Speaker 7: Going back and looking at preseason rankings, I think talented

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Speaker 7: receivers on bad pass offenses actually just guys with high

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Speaker 7: draft pedigree. A lot of times those guys are in

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Speaker 7: the best spot to succeed, Like like it looked like

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Speaker 7: let's say like Deebo Samuel and AJ Brown and DJ

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Speaker 7: Shark and Courtland Sutton, like those guys, you know, may

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Speaker 7: kind of be like the it'lling picks that you don't

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Speaker 7: really you know what to do with. But the bottom

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Speaker 7: line is when there's kind of that target share up

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Speaker 7: for grabs because it is a bad pass offense, he

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Speaker 7: doesn't need to be amazing to get, you know. Twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty three percent target share, which is essentially what's going

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Speaker 7: out with all these guys right now and they're playing,

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Speaker 7: you know, better than we thought.

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Speaker 1: But that's something to keep in mind going forward.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean that was basically the argument for aj

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Speaker 5: Green at his peak, you know, like he was the

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Speaker 5: number one guy with Andy Dalton is his quarterback, like

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Speaker 5: he could still produce. All right, let's talk about the

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Speaker 5: running backs here. At the top of our rankings, we

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Speaker 5: have Christian McCaffrey going against Seattle, Dalvin Cook going against

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Speaker 5: the Chargers, and then Derrick Henry going against Houston. Sean,

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Speaker 5: as you mentioned, Derrick Henry is you know, seemingly there's

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Speaker 5: an issue there, so everyone be sure to keep an

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Speaker 5: eye on that.

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Speaker 3: But Sean, who are you relatively high on?

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Speaker 6: So I mean, I know this guy's turned into you know,

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Speaker 6: a meme on Twitter, but I am high on Patrick

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Speaker 6: Laird at the Giants. He's only forty five hundred. I mean,

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Speaker 6: he's probably gonna be overall, let's face it. But you know,

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Speaker 6: once once Cale and Blidge went down Week thirteen, I

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Speaker 6: knew we had to take him seriously. He's seen his

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Speaker 6: rest run go up five straight games. It was up

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Speaker 6: to fifty nine percent last week. He's he's become the

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Speaker 6: workhorse back and there aren't many of those left in

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Speaker 6: week fifteen, so we have to take him seriously. Even

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Speaker 6: if he's in a fishent on the ground, I mean

357
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Speaker 6: he has upside for five or more catches this week.

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Speaker 6: The Giants have been extremely susceptible to pass catching backs.

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Speaker 6: They've allowed six different backs to catch four more balls

360
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Speaker 6: last four games, and we saw Boston Scott go off

361
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Speaker 6: against him last night. So Patrick Blair kind of fits

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Speaker 6: that mold of a player that could give the Giants.

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Speaker 6: Fits in at forty five hundred. I mean, he's a

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Speaker 6: no brainer in DFS in my opinion, even if he's chucky.

365
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Speaker 6: I think that, you know, in a cash game, I

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Speaker 6: think spinning down at running back to get him makes sense.

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Speaker 3: Raybond, who are relatively high on this.

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Speaker 7: There's a couple of good cash game plays I think

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Speaker 7: where it is definitely one of them. Chris Carson seven

370
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Speaker 7: point five K. He kind of he bumps up to

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Speaker 7: my running back eight this week for the for one,

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Speaker 7: Carolina is bottom five and schedule adjusted fantasy points all

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Speaker 7: out the running backs, they actually give up the most

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Speaker 7: points to running backs in the entire league. There's no

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Speaker 7: Rashad Penny now and CJ prosides he pretty much had

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Speaker 7: one game where he was heavily used when Carson was

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Speaker 7: in the midst of those fumbling issues. But in a

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Speaker 7: game like this, Seattle still needs to keep winning to

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Speaker 7: kind of get playoff seeding. And Carson they flashed the

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Speaker 7: graphic on the telecast last game, like he's been getting

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Speaker 7: more touches than Marshawn Lynch in his prime. You know,

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Speaker 7: well over twenty touches a game for Carson, So like

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Speaker 7: him to continue to be fed the rocket and smashing

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Speaker 7: this spot. And then Todd Gurley at six K. I

385
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Speaker 7: think he's a really interesting play as well, because you know,

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Speaker 7: Sean McVay said it, Hey, I was an idiot for

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Speaker 7: not using Girly more. Girly is starting to look better.

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Speaker 7: I mean, you know, Gurley looks better now than he

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Speaker 7: did early in the season, and you know, maybe that

390
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Speaker 7: is because he didn't have the crazy workload like he

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Speaker 7: usually does. But for whatever whatever reason, this is a

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Speaker 7: game A pick them pretty high total at forty eight

393
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Speaker 7: and a half, like this sets up as a game

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Speaker 7: where you know they could lean on Grilly and he

395
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Speaker 7: could get a lot of usage. And at six K,

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Speaker 7: I think he's way too cheap. He doesn't have quite

397
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Speaker 7: the pass catching upside that he's had in years past.

398
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Speaker 7: Only about eight point five percent targets here, but are

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Speaker 7: you seeing a well over seventy five percent of that

400
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Speaker 7: carries the last four games, So you know he has

401
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Speaker 7: major upside in this spot in what could be kind

402
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Speaker 7: of a close, high scoring game.

403
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Speaker 3: All Right. The guy I has two guys. I'm relatively

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Speaker 3: high on one.

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Speaker 5: If we get reports that Derrick Henry is you know,

406
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Speaker 5: practicing in full later in the week, and you know, it.

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Speaker 3: Looks like he's going to be going.

408
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Speaker 5: I like this spot for him as a home favorite,

409
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Speaker 5: and I don't have much respect for the Houston Texans

410
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Speaker 5: defense and their ability to or inability to stop running backs.

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Speaker 5: The other guy relatively high on is Aaron Jones as

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Speaker 5: a home favorite, you know, tougher matchup against the Bears,

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Speaker 5: but you know, I think he's just going to get

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Speaker 5: the ball quite a bit, and I like the opportunity

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Speaker 5: that he has potentially to you know, run up the

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Speaker 5: score as once again a home favorite, which I think

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Speaker 5: will benefit him nicely.

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Speaker 3: Sean who are you relatively low on.

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Speaker 6: I'm gonna have to go against you there. And Derrick Henry,

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Speaker 6: I know, I get it. He's almost impossible fay this

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Speaker 6: time of year. And I spent all preseasons saying he's

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Speaker 6: probably the most likely workhorse back to play all sixteen games.

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Speaker 6: So I realized his hamstring injury is probably the equivalent

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Speaker 6: of like a monster truck having a nail its tire.

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Speaker 6: It's probably not gonna stop it. But you know, I

426
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Speaker 6: was watching most of that game and he you know,

427
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Speaker 6: after every drive, they were show him on the sideline

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Speaker 6: working it and you know, trainers around him. And then

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Speaker 6: I mentioned his last carry was at the end of

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Speaker 6: the third quarter. It was still some point game, so

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Speaker 6: it definitely impacted his you know snap count last week

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Speaker 6: and you know eighty five hundred. Especially on a PPR

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Speaker 6: site like DraftKings, I mean, he could disappoint even if

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Speaker 6: he only gets one touchdown. So I just think at

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Speaker 6: that price, with the uncertainty, he seems like a easier

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Speaker 6: fade this week. And I know it's tough, but I

437
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:14,080
Speaker 6: think that, especially in DFS, fade him. But season long,

438
00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,600
Speaker 6: if you have him, I don't care if you're in

439
00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 6: a two team league or obviously starting this week, but

440
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 6: just DFS at that price, He's an easy fad for me.

441
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm with you unless we actually get confirmation that

442
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,320
Speaker 5: he had a full practice at some point this week.

443
00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 3: Like if he has a.

444
00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:31,360
Speaker 5: Full practice, then they're not concerned about him at all,

445
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 5: you know.

446
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,119
Speaker 2: And I don't think he is going to get a

447
00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 2: full practice.

448
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,160
Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, and if you're right, then I will

449
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,520
Speaker 5: definitely be moving him down the right games as the

450
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 5: week progresses.

451
00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 3: Chris, who are you low on?

452
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 1: Maybe on Bell?

453
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 7: So he's obviously in the Thursday game. I have him

454
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:50,000
Speaker 7: fringe top twenty back this week. Earlier in the season,

455
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 7: we like Belle even though the Jets O Wine was

456
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,840
Speaker 7: struggling just because he was playing, you know, ninety percent

457
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 7: of the snaps. He was seeing pretty much all of

458
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 7: the running back usage. But he's been trending downwards in

459
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,480
Speaker 7: terms of his utage for the season. His carry shares

460
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 7: his running his carria sher up in the backfield is

461
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 7: around seventy five percent, but last four games seventy two percent,

462
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 7: fifty eight percent, forty six percent, sixty seven percent over

463
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 7: the last eight games.

464
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 1: When Sam Darnold came back.

465
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 7: Bell's target share is down at thirteen point seventy five percent.

466
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 7: You know they're going downfield a little more to Robbie Anderson.

467
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 7: They still got Crowder and Vincent Smith and Griffin came on.

468
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 1: So he's kind of a tear.

469
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,399
Speaker 7: Down from what he was earlier in the season in

470
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,440
Speaker 7: terms of usage. And now you're going on the road

471
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 7: to face Baltimore. The Jets are applied for only fifteen

472
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 7: points according to the Vegas Line, so it's not likely

473
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,159
Speaker 7: that he gets a touchdown. One of the most unlikely

474
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:51,119
Speaker 7: weeks that he were that he's going to get a touchdown,

475
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 7: and with the target share down, it's just not a

476
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 7: good look for him this week. And Joe Mixon kind

477
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 7: of in the same boat. He's been coming on these

478
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,680
Speaker 7: last few weeks, playing really well, still getting a ton

479
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 7: of usage, about eighty four percent of the carriage from

480
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 7: week to one.

481
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 1: He left he left Week one early.

482
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 7: But another team applied for under sixteen points are the Bengals,

483
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 7: and I think, you know Bill Belichick, they kind of

484
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,840
Speaker 7: scheme to take out, you know, the opponent's top threat,

485
00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,000
Speaker 7: and when you look at this game, I think you know,

486
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,280
Speaker 7: Cincinnati's receivers kind of banged up that they new England

487
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 7: has the cornerbacks to handle Boyd and whoever. So I

488
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 7: think they're going to really kind of focus in on

489
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 7: mixing in that old line and not really let them

490
00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 7: get anything going.

491
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: So mixing another guy.

492
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,840
Speaker 7: He's my RB twenty four this week, whereas he's been

493
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 7: kind of in the top twenty these last few.

494
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,440
Speaker 2: Just a real quick question about Bell.

495
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 6: You know you mentioned his usage has been trending down,

496
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 6: but that was he was, you know, giving work to

497
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,439
Speaker 6: blow a palace. Ball ends up missing this week. Do

498
00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 6: you think that'll raise Bell for you in your eyes?

499
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 6: Or like why was that?

500
00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 7: I don't know, because you know, they they kind of

501
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 7: there was like mid season they him and Gaze had

502
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,000
Speaker 7: a conversation saying Bell wants to get more involved. But

503
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 7: then you know it's the trend down again and they

504
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 7: still have Remember they they signed Josh Adams, like they

505
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 7: claimed him off the Eagles practice squad and they gave

506
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 7: him an active roster spot just so no other team

507
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 7: would claim him.

508
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 1: And you know Montgomery, So these last few.

509
00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:17,440
Speaker 7: Games, Adams, Powell and Montgomery had been kind of mixing

510
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 7: in with Bell and then all of a sudden Adams

511
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 7: went kind of a wall just when you saw it.

512
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: Maybe he would get even more work, but yeah, I don't.

513
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 7: I don't necessarily know, and I don't think you can

514
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,600
Speaker 7: trust it enough to say, hey, like, he's gonna go

515
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 7: back up to ninety percent even if I was out,

516
00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:32,080
Speaker 7: because Montgomery and Adams were getting like four or five

517
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 7: carries these last few weeks too, So yeah, I'm gona

518
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 7: keep him around. I have him at let's see, I

519
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 7: have him at seventy. I have him about a round

520
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 7: seventy one percent carry share, so only about five percent

521
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 7: down from his normal average. But the Ravens, you know,

522
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 7: being a road underdog that knocks your your your team

523
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 7: expectation for carries down a notch.

524
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,880
Speaker 1: When you're such a huge road underdog as well.

525
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 2: Yep, totally all right.

526
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 5: The guy I'm reallylatively low on, and I want you

527
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 5: two to tell me why I am wrong. But the

528
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 5: guy I'm relatively low on is Saquon Barkley. Now I

529
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 5: have to admit he's a home favorite. Well, let's just

530
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 5: say that's trash. Okay. The Giants, sorry, Raybond, they should

531
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:17,880
Speaker 5: not be favorite in any game. I don't even care

532
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 5: who they're playing but they're they're home favorites, but I

533
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:21,959
Speaker 5: don't give a lot of credence to that they do

534
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,239
Speaker 5: have a great matchup. I have to admit that they

535
00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 5: have a great matchup against the Dolphins, but does that

536
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 5: even matter. Saquon Barkley is disappointed more than maybe any

537
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 5: other player this year relative to the draft equity that

538
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 5: he has, right the investment you had to make in

539
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 5: him to get him, he had disappointed. Yeah, Okay, okay,

540
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 5: that's yan, Okay, that's fair. But I'll just say, like

541
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 5: Saquon Barkley went number one in a lot of leagues,

542
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 5: Like you passed on Christian McCaffrey to take Saquon Barkley,

543
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 5: Like if you have David Johnson, he's disappointed. But it's

544
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 5: not as if you passed on Saquon or Kamara or

545
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 5: even Chris McCaffrey to get him. You have David Johnson

546
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 5: because you have the number four pick. Like that's that's

547
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 5: kind of how it is. Anyway, Saquon Barkley, he's disappointed

548
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 5: so much this year, even in a great spot, I

549
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 5: don't feel I can have him.

550
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,880
Speaker 3: In the top three. Like I'm I'll admit I'm too

551
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 3: low on him. I have him number nine.

552
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 5: That said, I just I don't have any faith in

553
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 5: him or this Giants offense. Guys, tell me why I'm wrong.

554
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 7: So I mean, and I have him. He's number two

555
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 7: right now for me. And that's pretty much because Henry

556
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 7: like not getting knocked down a tiny bit. Until we

557
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 7: know what's going on, I'll probably move Cook above him

558
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 7: now that I think about it.

559
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: But see, the thing is, it's just the volume.

560
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 7: So you know, when I when I start the week,

561
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 7: I'm just kind of you know, projecting volume the way

562
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 7: it's you know, it's been going. And since Barkley came

563
00:25:56,480 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 7: back the last seven games, the Giants have had one

564
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,479
Speaker 7: hundred and twenty three backfield carries in those seven games

565
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 7: that that that Saquon has been back, He's carried on

566
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 7: one hundred and seventeen of those one hundred and twenty three.

567
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:15,359
Speaker 7: So that's a ninety five percent carry share. And you

568
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 7: know the other thing I think that's interesting to me

569
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 7: is Eli man I talked about this in the DFS breakdown.

570
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: Eli Manning.

571
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 7: He targeted Saquon targets Saquon about seven over seven times

572
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 7: a game, where Daniel Jones is around six. So you

573
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 7: could just get kind of that have toen check down

574
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 7: ey PPR type situation with Saquon. So, I mean, the

575
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,280
Speaker 7: matchup is there. You know, the Dolphins have been terrible,

576
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 7: but I do agree it's been It's been extremely disappointing.

577
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 7: But I just don't think you can fade the volume

578
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 7: of a guy getting ninety five percent of the carries

579
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 7: against the league's worst run defense.

580
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:51,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree.

581
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 6: I actually have them number two as well, just to

582
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 6: start the week that I'm not saying it's gonna end

583
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,480
Speaker 6: that way, but you know that hey ankle spring, we

584
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 6: don't really know if he rushed back, he beat his

585
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,119
Speaker 6: time table by a couple of weeks, I feel like,

586
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 6: so that could have been lingering. It might have been

587
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 6: better for him to sit out another game or two.

588
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 6: We don't know, But yeah, at home against the Dolphins,

589
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 6: I mean, how can you pass that up. I think

590
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 6: it's more of a DFS play. At seventy seven hundred.

591
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,679
Speaker 6: He might be under owned where he's not a season

592
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 6: long start decision, and to be honest, if you have him,

593
00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 6: you probably you're.

594
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:24,320
Speaker 2: Probably out by now.

595
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 6: So yeah, I think he's more of a DFS play

596
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 6: this week where you're just banking on talent at home

597
00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:33,119
Speaker 6: against the Dolphins. He's faced some tough run defenses lately,

598
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:36,200
Speaker 6: so I'm willing to overlook that. But yeah, he's actually

599
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 6: the guy I have the prop for. If we want

600
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 6: to just settle it, let's go that way. So I

601
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 6: have his total rushing and receiving yards over under one

602
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,920
Speaker 6: hundred and a half. And if you're thinking that's weird,

603
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 6: why not just make it nine nine and a half.

604
00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 6: It's because every point matters for a player prop. As

605
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 6: seen last night, I had the under sixty six and

606
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 6: a half rushing yards for Berkeley. He had sixty six

607
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 6: rushing yards in the third quarter and he proceeded to

608
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,359
Speaker 6: get zero rushing yards in the fourth.

609
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 1: That's amazing. So I ended up laying that, Yeah, that

610
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 1: is amazing.

611
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 5: I think that's a really good line. And I have

612
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 5: this at one hundred point one. Oh see you agree, Yeah,

613
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 5: so I'll take the under.

614
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 3: Yeah.

615
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 6: I mean, he hasn't cracked a hundred scrimmage yards or

616
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 6: he's only done it twice since week two, So I

617
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,600
Speaker 6: mean we're kind of going out our way by saying,

618
00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 6: you know, one hundred projected scrimmageyards this week. Where are

619
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 6: you at Raybun I'm over.

620
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:36,879
Speaker 1: I have them over one hundred.

621
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 7: I have them at and so again, this is kind

622
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 7: of the opposite situation of Bell where the Dolphins. You know,

623
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 7: facing the Dolphins is the home favorite kind of bumps

624
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 7: up that the team carry projection a little more, so.

625
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 1: I have them.

626
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 7: Usually a league have a team gets about twenty one

627
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 7: and a half batfield carries, and the Giants have tended

628
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,520
Speaker 7: to be under that, but I have them a little

629
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 7: over that this week, and Barkley get around ninety five

630
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 7: percent of them. I have him going over that combined

631
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 7: with the with the receiverment, so I have him about

632
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 7: buff buck ten actually, so yeah.

633
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 1: I like him to go over.

634
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 7: But yeah, it's been it's been the one thing I

635
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 7: will say, he did smash the matchup against the Lions,

636
00:29:18,640 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 7: and the Lions are another one of those teams that

637
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:24,360
Speaker 7: are just really bad against running backs. So you know,

638
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 7: the Eagles are a tough team. You don't expect too

639
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 7: much against them. The Packers was the one that was

640
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,479
Speaker 7: really disappointing because he should have smashed that matchup. Bears

641
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 7: tough matchup so and the Jets are really tough matchup actually,

642
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 7: So yeah, thirteen carries for one yard against the Jets,

643
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 7: so that.

644
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, they they had Golman on that an active list,

645
00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 6: which is weird. I mean he's the main backup, so

646
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 6: all they had was Elijah Penny the fullback and Buck

647
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 6: Allen back there. So yeah, he's you could probably chalk

648
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 6: him up to get you know, one hundred percent of

649
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 6: the carries this week if they keep that up.

650
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 5: Joining us to talk some NFL dfs is Peter Jennings

651
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 5: aka csu RA M eighty eight, a two time world

652
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 5: champion and co founder of Fantasy Labs.

653
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 3: Pete. Week fourteen, lots of injuries. How did you do?

654
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 4: And it'd been a good week.

655
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 8: I had a really good team on DraftKings and cash

656
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 8: when the fore man and yeah, trending right along. A

657
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 8: good cash game week. Not as good in tournaments. Kamara

658
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 8: hurt me as well as some of the injuries. DeVante

659
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 8: Parker specifically.

660
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 5: All right, let's get into week fifteen. How do you

661
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 5: think you are approaching cash games and GPPs.

662
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 8: So this is a really good week and a week

663
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 8: that's going to be shaped a lot by injuries, So

664
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 8: you know, recording this early in the week, my plan

665
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 8: is to just build the optimal teams like always, but

666
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 8: the injury news and the way it shakes out could

667
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 8: leave a lot of concentrated chalk, kind of like we

668
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 8: saw with blall Pal last week.

669
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 4: So pay attention to that.

670
00:30:45,040 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 8: And there's so much leverage in getting away from some

671
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 8: of the chalk that I think we could see this

672
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 8: week depending on how the injury news breaks down.

673
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: All right, let's start with quarterback. Who are you looking

674
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 3: at right now?

675
00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 8: Very ugly at the top for me in terms of value,

676
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 8: I actually have Eli as my top quarterback assuming he starts.

677
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 8: This Miami team has just been so friendly and giving

678
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 8: too opposing quarterbacks that I have a pretty high projection

679
00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 8: on him right now. So Eli Manning is kind of

680
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 8: the paydown option. I think Kyler Murray is an intriguing option,

681
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:18,479
Speaker 8: kind of in that load of mid tier. And then

682
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 8: if I'm paying up, I'm probably going to pay up

683
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 8: for Deshaun Watson maybe Ryan Tannehill, who I guess is

684
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 8: kind of in that mid tier. I certainly like that game.

685
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 8: It's a really important, real life game, and both those

686
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 8: guys have upside with their legs. So quarterback, I'm all

687
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 8: over the place right now. But my top rated points

688
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 8: for dollar play. Is Eli Manning.

689
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 3: What do you think about running back?

690
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, so running back I think is where we could

691
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 8: see a lot of different players, you know, come to

692
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 8: the fold. I've played sae Quon Barkley a lot this

693
00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 8: year and it's been terrible. I'm going back to him

694
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,760
Speaker 8: this week against the Dolphins. I think just touch a

695
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 8: good right spot for this Giants team. So he's near

696
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 8: the top that same game. Patrick Laird or Laird and

697
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 8: Savior is an intriguing option. And then of course you

698
00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 8: have Christian McCaffrey encouraged by Todd Gurley's usage, which I

699
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 8: think is interesting. And then you know some of the

700
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 8: other names that we've seen a lot. Zeke makes a

701
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 8: lot of sense to me. Cheap option I think is

702
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 8: pretty interesting to me. Is Duke Johnson has been very

703
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,840
Speaker 8: efficient this year. Volume has really been the only concern,

704
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 8: and if he gets the volume, I think he could

705
00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 8: be an intriguing play as well.

706
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 3: What about wide receiver?

707
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: So wide receiver, I mean depends on how you want

708
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 4: to stack things up. I think everyone's going to look

709
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 4: to all these Giants guys.

710
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 8: Darius Slaton coming off a really big game, I still

711
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 8: have some interest in players like Sterling Shepherd, but other

712
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 8: guys that are catching my eye. I'm interested in these

713
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,719
Speaker 8: Jacksonville receivers of shark missus. Dede Westbrook and Conley are

714
00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 8: going to both be really strong plays. Robert Woods is

715
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:52,239
Speaker 8: still too cheap. Julian Edelman going against the Bengals, and

716
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 8: I have to shout out Courtland Sutton, who has just

717
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 8: been a ridiculous player all year, big time second year breakout.

718
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 8: He's bad and going against Kansas City. I assume Denver's

719
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 8: gonna have to throw and Locksman actually somewhat decent so far.

720
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 8: So certainly looking at the Denver pasquatch or Courtland.

721
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: Sutton and tight End, who do you like there?

722
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 4: Yeah? I like to you guys a lot of the top.

723
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,760
Speaker 8: Darren Waller, George Kittle, George Kittle my favorite player in

724
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 8: the NFL.

725
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 4: Happy to see him win the game for San Francisco.

726
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 8: What an amazing run he had this Atlanta matchups really

727
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 8: strong and I think he's a strong player. And Darren

728
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 8: Waller going against the Jags who have just been getting

729
00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 8: trucked by everyone, makes a ton of sense as well.

730
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 8: If you're going to pay down, I think there's a

731
00:33:32,480 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 8: couple options. We'll see what the DeVante Parker status is.

732
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 8: But he's out, that's going to open up more targets

733
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 8: for Kasiki, who's only four km.

734
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 4: DraftKings.

735
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 8: You know, you have some other mid tier guys that

736
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 8: I think are interesting. Higbee's been bawling. He's only thirty

737
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 8: nine hundred. Oj Howard started a trend in the right direction.

738
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 8: He's thirty five hundred. There's a lot of great options

739
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 8: at tight end, and I hope I can get up

740
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 8: to Darren Waller and George Kittle.

741
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 4: But a lot of nice options. Kind of that load

742
00:33:56,800 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 4: of mid.

743
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,959
Speaker 5: Tier all right, Finally, is there a stack or two

744
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 5: that you think might go under the radar?

745
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 8: Yeah, This Jacksonville team I think makes a lot of sense.

746
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 8: You know, Minshew to Westbrook, Minshew to Conley. To throw

747
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 8: Fournette in the mix as well is interesting depending on

748
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 8: Shark's status. And I just like that game overall. So

749
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 8: some sort of game stack there if you wanted to

750
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 8: go Derek carn Waller, I have no problem with that either.

751
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 8: And of course we're gonna be watching the Jacob's news

752
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 8: as well, so if he's out, Rashard could be a

753
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 8: bounced back candidate, and DeAndre Washington obviously is another option too,

754
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 8: So I like stacking up that game as we're recording

755
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:33,440
Speaker 8: here on Tuesday.

756
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,560
Speaker 5: All right, that was Peter Jennings with his DFS thoughts

757
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 5: for Week fifteen. Okay, let's talk about the wide receivers.

758
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 5: The guys at the top of our rankings. Michael Thomas

759
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:47,080
Speaker 5: playing on Monday Night football against the Colts, Chris Godwin

760
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 5: without Mike Evans playing against Detroit, and then DeAndre Hopkins

761
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 5: playing against the Titans. Sean, who are you high on?

762
00:34:55,640 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 6: I am high on Courtland Sutton this week. You know,

763
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 6: if I told you that Drew Locke threw for three

764
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 6: hundred and nine yards and three touchdowns and Setton had

765
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 6: a dud, you wouldn't believe me. But that's what happened.

766
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 3: You know.

767
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 2: I think he's due for a huge bounce back game.

768
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 6: He's he's ran a route on one hundred percent of

769
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:17,320
Speaker 6: the dropbacks the past three weeks. You know, this is

770
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,840
Speaker 6: gonna be a pass heavy game script against the Chiefs,

771
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:21,920
Speaker 6: so I think he might be under him this week.

772
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 6: He's only fifty nine hundred and he's my wide receiver

773
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 6: twelve to start the week, So expect to bounce back

774
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 6: game from him. And then you know the the Jaguars

775
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,720
Speaker 6: two receivers Ddee Westbrook and Chris Connelly, they're underpriced because

776
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:38,239
Speaker 6: I believe the DJ Chark news wasn't announced until you know,

777
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,479
Speaker 6: pricing came out that he was going to miss this week,

778
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 6: so you know, both players get a boost. The charkout

779
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 6: d D I would say, is the safer high floor option,

780
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 6: you know, more for cash games for season long fantasy

781
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 6: at forty six hundred undraftkings well, whereas Conley, you know

782
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,359
Speaker 6: he's more of the dart throw high upside guy at

783
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 6: thirty six hundred.

784
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: He'll be a popular GPP play this week.

785
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 6: You know, his ceiling is pretty high in that offense

786
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 6: with charkout, so I think he'll be a popular play

787
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 6: in DFS tournaments this week.

788
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 7: Colton Sutton has been a hard guy to rank this

789
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 7: year with all the quarterback turnover and he's been just

790
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 7: making some big plays. So I'm looking at his wide

791
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,640
Speaker 7: receiver cornerback matchup. It looks like he probably match up

792
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 7: with Bishad Breeland the most, who has forty six point

793
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 7: six PFF rating that I'm looking at Kansas City's Dvoa

794
00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 7: versus number one wide receivers, and they're number one in

795
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,680
Speaker 7: the league and they're giving up only forty six point

796
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 7: five schedule adjusted yards per game. So any thoughts on like,

797
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:35,959
Speaker 7: what is Kansas City doing to kind of limit number

798
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 7: one wide receivers.

799
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually think he's going to play against Tarvorious Ward. Okay, well, okay,

800
00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 5: So all of those cornerbacks I think are relatively about

801
00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 5: the same, but they're like they're different in terms of

802
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 5: their style of play. Kennel Fuller is the slot cornerback,

803
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 5: and then Bashad Breeland is really not all that fast

804
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,359
Speaker 5: of a guy. Like I kind of don't understand how

805
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 5: he still has a job, to be honest, but he's

806
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 5: done better this year than he has in the past,

807
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 5: even though he has a lower PFF grade, And like,

808
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:10,479
Speaker 5: as you mentioned, against number one wide receivers, they've done

809
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 5: well this year even though Breelin has done poorly. And so, like,

810
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 5: I don't know if that is just sort of like

811
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 5: a discrepancy between the way that PFF grades and the

812
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 5: actual production that we see from players on the field,

813
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 5: for lack of a better phrase, like a shortcoming with PFF,

814
00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:31,280
Speaker 5: or if it's just kind of randomness in a sixteen

815
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 5: game sample, So like, I really I really don't know,

816
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,959
Speaker 5: Like do you have any opinion on on like what's

817
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 5: going on there.

818
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 7: I'm looking at the numbers, like guys who play in

819
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,680
Speaker 7: the slot as number ones have kind of had some success.

820
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 7: So Keenan Allen went eight for seventy one and one,

821
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 7: Julian Edelman eight ninety five and one. Probably more randomness

822
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 7: other than anything. Yeah, I was just curious because Sutton's

823
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 7: been a guy that's just been like it's he's been

824
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 7: really hard to rank for me.

825
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 3: Who are you relatively high on this week?

826
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 7: Darius Slayton. We saw him have a big game on

827
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 7: Monday night. Didn't quite expect that I had him ranked

828
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 7: at higher than consensus, But I didn't think he would

829
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,320
Speaker 7: have such a monster game just because Eli tends to

830
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 7: check it down a little more and uh, you know

831
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 7: it's gonna be bad weather.

832
00:38:10,560 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: But Slatn's really.

833
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 7: Come on and this is the time of year when

834
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 7: we start to see these these younger wide receivers break out.

835
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,720
Speaker 7: Slayton's target shair just keeps increasing, and you know, even

836
00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 7: with guys that you would you know normally hog targets

837
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,400
Speaker 7: you know, Kate Shephard, he's played some games with Angram Barkley,

838
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 7: He's been in there for for a lot of the time.

839
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 7: Slayton's been a number one, I mean, a full time player,

840
00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 7: and he's still you know, his start target share has

841
00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 7: been steadily increasing. And now he's going against the Dolphins,

842
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 7: and this is a matchup where they get beat deep

843
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 7: down the field, they get beaten the intermediate.

844
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 1: Well, they really get beat everywhere. But I like Slayton

845
00:38:47,880 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: to keep on keep it going.

846
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 7: He's up to a eighteen percent target share and that's

847
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 7: only with playing running about eighty five percent of the

848
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 7: route for the season, whereas these last few games he's

849
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,839
Speaker 7: been up right near one hundred percent. So I think

850
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 7: we have a lot of upside there with him because

851
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 7: Tate and Shepherd are more of underneath guys.

852
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: And even if Ingram.

853
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,000
Speaker 7: Comes back, I think he's playing, he's still going to

854
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 7: be a full time player.

855
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:14,799
Speaker 1: So like him at four point seven.

856
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:19,760
Speaker 7: K Obviously the pricing came out before his blowoup game

857
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,799
Speaker 7: last week. Also, like Kenny Aadi and Marvin Jones, I'm

858
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 7: probably going to be higher on them than consensus, just

859
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:31,160
Speaker 7: like Bloo Tampa Bay again, just a pass funnel with

860
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 7: the top five run defense and a pass defense that's

861
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 7: right around twentyth in the league in DVOA.

862
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 1: So I think.

863
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 7: Gallade has you know, number one overall wide receiver potential,

864
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 7: and Marvin Jones is in my top twenty as well.

865
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 7: Tampa Bay twenty second versus both number one and number

866
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 7: twos in DVOA.

867
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 3: Ravon, I am.

868
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 5: I'm with you on Slayton going against a Dolphins defense

869
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 5: that has allowed a millionaire maker wide receiver in four

870
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 5: straight weeks, which is pretty like that, pretty incredible John

871
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 5: Brown in week eleven, Jarvis Landry in week twelve, Alshon

872
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:11,800
Speaker 5: Jeffery in week thirteen, and then Robbie Anderson last week.

873
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 5: So yeah, whether it's Slayton, Shepherd, Golden Tate, Slayton is

874
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:18,800
Speaker 5: the guy I would go with out of that bunch

875
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 5: because I think he has the most upside, like the

876
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:27,760
Speaker 5: highest volatility, and when looking specifically at rookie wide receivers,

877
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 5: you know, overall numbers and consistency is nice, but it's

878
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:35,439
Speaker 5: pretty rare for a rookie wide receiver to be all

879
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 5: that consistent. And so when thinking about a guy's potential

880
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:44,080
Speaker 5: moving forward, I tend to I try to find spike weeks,

881
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,440
Speaker 5: like if a guy shows upside as a rookie, I

882
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 5: think that's pretty indicative of what he could do in

883
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 5: years two through five. And Slayton has had some massive

884
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 5: performances this year, three games with two touchdowns and two

885
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:02,920
Speaker 5: of those games over one hundred yards receiving. He's a

886
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 5: legit player I think for future seasons. And then this

887
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 5: week against Miami, there is a lot to like about him.

888
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:14,279
Speaker 7: The Bucks and Dolphins are thirty two and thirty one

889
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 7: in schedule, just a fancy points allowed to tight.

890
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:17,800
Speaker 1: End, so it's a wide receivers.

891
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 7: So Gallada has had a bunch of two touchdown games

892
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 7: as well, like you could and then AJ Brown. You know,

893
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:26,400
Speaker 7: we talked about hind Santa like Brown, Slayton, Galladay, I

894
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:30,920
Speaker 7: could see that being like the winning Millie Maker combination.

895
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:35,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's it's definitely possible. One guy I like quite

896
00:41:35,680 --> 00:41:37,839
Speaker 5: a bit. Don't need to kind of touch on him

897
00:41:37,840 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 5: too much because we've talked about him in past weeks.

898
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:42,760
Speaker 5: But DJ Moore, you know, just getting an elite usage.

899
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 5: I don't fear the Seahawks. I think they're going to

900
00:41:45,160 --> 00:41:47,320
Speaker 5: be in a situation where they're going to have to

901
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 5: pass the ball quite a bit.

902
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 3: So I just I like what he.

903
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 5: Does, and I I mean, I think it's too much

904
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 5: to just lock him in as like a top five

905
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:58,640
Speaker 5: receiver each week. But I think at this point he's

906
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 5: pretty clearly hard not to include in the top ten,

907
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 5: just given his talent and then also the usage that

908
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 5: he has. Sean, who are you relatively low on? And

909
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 5: if you say DJ Moore, I'm going to live nice?

910
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: No, I said, I think it was like week twelve.

911
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 6: This is the last week DJ Moore is gonna be

912
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:18,760
Speaker 6: under six k on DK and I think that's been true.

913
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 6: So No, I love DJ Moore, love that call. I'm

914
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:24,440
Speaker 6: low on Cooper Cup at Dallas. You know, I mentioned

915
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:26,360
Speaker 6: I'm low on golf in general this week. So the

916
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 6: Rams passing attack I'm going to be relatively low on.

917
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 6: But Cup Oddie only played twenty nine percent of the

918
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,480
Speaker 6: snaps last week. Granted they were mostly passing downs. He

919
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 6: still ran around on fifty two percent of the dropbacks.

920
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,000
Speaker 6: But right now, this offense goes through Robert Woods, Todd Gurley,

921
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 6: and even Tyler Higby right now. So you know, I

922
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,799
Speaker 6: was looking at the snap counts and Johnny Munt, the

923
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 6: backup tight end, played seventy one percent of the snaps

924
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 6: zero routes run, so they're just running more too tight

925
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,200
Speaker 6: end sets, and for some reason, it's at the expense

926
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 6: of Cooper Cup. He's ran less routes than both Woods

927
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 6: and even Brandon Cook the past two so we just

928
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,800
Speaker 6: cannot think of him as, you know, the top passing

929
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 6: option going forward until this trend changes. So at sixty

930
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 6: five K this week, I'm fading him completely. And I've

931
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,799
Speaker 6: been high on Woods lately, but you know, this week,

932
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 6: I'm even higher on him. With this usage, I think

933
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 6: they're going to continue that until it stops working. And

934
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 6: the other guy I'm low on is Stefan Diggs at

935
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 6: the Chargers at seventy three hundred, he is way too expensive.

936
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 6: Adam Thielen should return this week, who knows at this point,

937
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:31,919
Speaker 6: but the targets are going to be pretty spread out

938
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 6: if he does. The Chargers have held seven of their

939
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 6: last ten opponents to less than one hundred and eighty

940
00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 6: five yards passing. I mean that includes recent games against

941
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:45,040
Speaker 6: guys like Aaron Rodgers and Patrickholmes and future first ballot

942
00:43:45,040 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 6: Hall of Famer Drew Locke. Now, so you know this

943
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 6: is the Chargers defense in general, is a situation I

944
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:55,799
Speaker 6: typically avoid, you know, opposing passing offenses. So this week

945
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 6: Stefan Diggs is way too overpriced at seventy three hundred.

946
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 7: I have a a hardcore nerdy projection question. But I

947
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,759
Speaker 7: mean it's week what fifteen, so the people listening are

948
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 7: probably pretty hardcore. But for a guy like Cup, how

949
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 7: much do you wait the most recent weeks route percentage

950
00:44:17,560 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 7: or snap percentage versus like his season long total.

951
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:23,480
Speaker 6: Well, I mean you'd have to put it in context.

952
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 6: So if he was hurt, obviously you want to just

953
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 6: ignore it. But I haven't found anything saying he was hurt.

954
00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:33,880
Speaker 6: So I'm at away a little heavier than normal. So

955
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,279
Speaker 6: I mean, weeks eleven and twelve he ran one hundred

956
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 6: percent of the routes. That's pretty much what we expected him.

957
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 6: Then week thirteen it was seventy four percent, and then

958
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 6: last week fifty two percent. So I mean, I'll probably

959
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 6: have it around seventy seventy five this week. Definitely it

960
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 6: won't be around fifty percent again, but it's just concerning

961
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 6: to say the least. And you know, Robert Woods has

962
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 6: been the guy that's been averaging over ninety five percent.

963
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 6: So I think it's it's just safe to say that

964
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 6: Woods is probably the top option and Cup is the second,

965
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 6: maybe even behind Tyler Higbet at this point to be honest.

966
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:12,720
Speaker 6: But well, we'll have to see if if Gerald Everett

967
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:14,080
Speaker 6: comes back, that might change things.

968
00:45:14,080 --> 00:45:15,960
Speaker 2: But it's concerning to say the least.

969
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, because like, yeah, that's like I think I

970
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:23,760
Speaker 7: have it right now. His routes at around about sixty

971
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 7: Well my model has it around sixty three.

972
00:45:25,880 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: I bumped it up. I think I'm bumping it up

973
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 1: a little more.

974
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 7: But yeah, it's an interesting question because it's like he's

975
00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 7: not hurt. It's just like one of those situations where

976
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 7: is it just variant because he's still got he's still

977
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 7: got targets last week too.

978
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 2: Well he yeah, he got the touchdown, so build people out.

979
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:43,400
Speaker 6: So I think people will just chug along thinking, you know,

980
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 6: he's the same Cooper Cup when there's very concerning underlying

981
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 6: usage trend with him.

982
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:54,200
Speaker 3: Agreed, Raymond, who are you relatively low on? I'm ALTI Cooper.

983
00:45:55,040 --> 00:45:59,280
Speaker 7: And this is just because of the potential shadow spot

984
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 7: for Jaylen from Jalen Ramsey. We've seen Ramsey in the

985
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 7: Rams have a lot of success limiting opposing number one

986
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 7: wide receivers as of weight. So you know, I think

987
00:46:11,239 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 7: Cooper is more of you know, like inside the top

988
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 7: twenty or around the top twenty receiver this week and

989
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 7: not a top ten guy that he's been most weeks,

990
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,880
Speaker 7: just because of that danger. I mean, we've seen Tyer

991
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 7: Lockett get only forty three yards, Christian Kirk only twenty three,

992
00:46:29,719 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 7: Marquis Brown got the two touchdowns forty two yards, so

993
00:46:32,560 --> 00:46:36,399
Speaker 7: that was kind of the outlier. But Alan Robinson only

994
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 7: fifteen yards on six targets. So that is something that

995
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:43,319
Speaker 7: I take a little more seriously with the Rams in

996
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 7: this spot. And I think, you know, dat Proscott and Cooper,

997
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,400
Speaker 7: the connections generally we've been good, So I don't expect

998
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 7: a total dud like on Alan Robinson levels. But I

999
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 7: just think that there's the potential there for more of

1000
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:58,160
Speaker 7: a kind of middling game for Cooper than more so

1001
00:46:58,239 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 7: than most weeks.

1002
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 5: All Right, Basically, all of the wide receivers who are injured,

1003
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:08,240
Speaker 5: I'm just relatively low on, and you know their rankings

1004
00:47:08,239 --> 00:47:10,400
Speaker 5: are going to change is you know, we get more

1005
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 5: information throughout the week, but you know, DeVante Parker, Will Fuller,

1006
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 5: I'm relatively pessimistic that they will play this week, So

1007
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 5: I'm already low on them. One guy you know who

1008
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:24,320
Speaker 5: is playing, but I'm relatively low on Odell Beckham Junior.

1009
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:28,400
Speaker 5: He has a great matchup against Arizona. I believe Arizona

1010
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,799
Speaker 5: is thirty two in PFF coverage grade. I mean, like

1011
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 5: they are without question highly exploitable. The main question for

1012
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 5: me is whether he's going to get his targets, and

1013
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 5: after you know, the weirdness of last week, I think

1014
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 5: it could go either one of two ways. Like I

1015
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 5: think they could overfeed him and give him double digit targets,

1016
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 5: or I think they could just continue this slide that

1017
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 5: they've had. He's gone from ten to eight, then six

1018
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 5: and now five targets in the last month. Right, Like

1019
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:04,080
Speaker 5: there is a clear downward trajectory where he is just

1020
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 5: no longer the guy that they need to get targets to.

1021
00:48:07,400 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 5: In their offense, they're targeting Jarvis Landry just as much,

1022
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:15,400
Speaker 5: sorry more than Odell Beckham Junior. And they're also relying

1023
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 5: quite a bit on their two running backs, you know,

1024
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 5: both to run the ball and then also to get

1025
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 5: targets to Kareem Hunt. So and David n Joku is

1026
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,919
Speaker 5: coming back. He didn't get really any action last week,

1027
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 5: but it was his first came back and now he

1028
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 5: has a very exploitable matchup going against the tight end

1029
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 5: defense of the Cardinals, and he could get a lot

1030
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 5: of targets that you think would maybe go to Odell

1031
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 5: Beckham Junior. So I know it's a great spot, and

1032
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:44,720
Speaker 5: you know he has the potential for blow up games,

1033
00:48:44,760 --> 00:48:48,920
Speaker 5: but things just seem to be going sideways with the

1034
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 5: Browns and I just, I honestly don't know if he's

1035
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 5: going to get the targets. That's the biggest question that

1036
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 5: I have, Like, what do you guys think about the targets?

1037
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 6: Well, I think that we found out that he's been

1038
00:48:58,280 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 6: dealing with sports turney. I mean, is you have to

1039
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 6: have surgery on it after the season, and I'm not

1040
00:49:02,719 --> 00:49:04,800
Speaker 6: sure if we know exactly when it. Do you guys

1041
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 6: have any info and when that started, because that might

1042
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 6: be all explained some of it.

1043
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 3: It seems like the beginning of the season.

1044
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 6: Yeah, okay to okay, Yeah, then who knows? I mean,

1045
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 6: I was, you know, I was high on Beckham going

1046
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 6: into the season, but I still thought that, you know, Baker,

1047
00:49:23,640 --> 00:49:25,279
Speaker 6: looking at last year, he does like to spread the

1048
00:49:25,280 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 6: ball around, so it could be an issue for him,

1049
00:49:27,600 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 6: and now Odell wants out. I have no idea what's

1050
00:49:30,120 --> 00:49:32,439
Speaker 6: going on, but like you said, this matchup, it's hard

1051
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 6: to ignore him completely. But I think it goes out

1052
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:38,840
Speaker 6: saying if he busts this week heading into the Fantasy

1053
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 6: Finals next week against Baltimore, he is going to be

1054
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:45,359
Speaker 6: in start decisions for sure, so we can't anticipate that.

1055
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,399
Speaker 6: But that's if he does this week. I don't see

1056
00:49:47,400 --> 00:49:50,399
Speaker 6: how he doesn't have a breakout game here. Like you said,

1057
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 6: maybe Pepper targets to get him to stay next year,

1058
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,600
Speaker 6: but it's a situation that's has a wide range of

1059
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 6: outcomes for sure.

1060
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think Freedman's onto something because cause, for one,

1061
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 7: you know, Baker Mayfield kind of coming out and saying

1062
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:06,400
Speaker 7: what he said about the injury, you know, should tell

1063
00:50:06,440 --> 00:50:08,279
Speaker 7: us a lot, because I mean, Baker Mayfield went out

1064
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,960
Speaker 7: of his way to throw his own organization under the

1065
00:50:11,040 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 7: bus and essentially excuse Beckham and say, hey, like he

1066
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 7: can't run his good but he said even if he's him,

1067
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 7: not at one hundred percent it's still it's still helping us,

1068
00:50:20,120 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 7: So that that's telling. And then yeah, last season, one

1069
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,319
Speaker 7: of the reasons that I was, you know, looks like

1070
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 7: mistakenly high on Baker Mayfield coming into the season was

1071
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 7: he had so much success targeting options other than his

1072
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 7: number one. I mean, he was averaging over nine yards

1073
00:50:35,400 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 7: of targets of Brashad Perriman, Antonio Cowoy, Rashard Higgins, h

1074
00:50:39,400 --> 00:50:42,759
Speaker 7: Na Joke who like pretty much everyone, but his worst

1075
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 7: numbers really were to Jarvis Landry as that number one,

1076
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 7: uh so Baker. And so this year we're seeing Landry

1077
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 7: have a lot of success, and I think that's because

1078
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 7: defenses are still going to pay more attention to Odell

1079
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 7: Beckham and Baker Mayfield kind of excels at Okay, the

1080
00:50:59,800 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 7: de and maybe if probably Freddie Kitchens has.

1081
00:51:02,200 --> 00:51:03,200
Speaker 1: Something to do with this as well.

1082
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,080
Speaker 7: But you know, okay, you know defense is going to

1083
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:08,320
Speaker 7: focus in on our number one guy. We can scheme

1084
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 7: other guys, you know, efficient targets, and so now you

1085
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,640
Speaker 7: have you know, Patrick Peters has been really bad this year.

1086
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:20,200
Speaker 7: But you know, this is a situation where again if

1087
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 7: if Kitchens in Mayfield are looking out and saying Okay,

1088
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 7: Patrick Peterson still has the reputation. You know, he has

1089
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 7: five six bad games, but they're still looking at him

1090
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 7: as this is one of the top corners in the

1091
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 7: league and he's on Beckham. I think it could just

1092
00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 7: be another one of those games where yeah, they go

1093
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 7: other places and probably have some success. Arizona's been really

1094
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:42,160
Speaker 7: bad against the pass overall, but I could actually see like,

1095
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 7: not too great of a game again for him. And

1096
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 7: with with Kareem Hunt back, the Browns are averaging only

1097
00:51:50,320 --> 00:51:52,719
Speaker 7: thirty two point four pass attempts per game, you know,

1098
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 7: since uh since Hunt came, and they're averaging more running

1099
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 7: back carries.

1100
00:51:56,320 --> 00:51:57,919
Speaker 1: Their running back carriers have gone up.

1101
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 7: So not looking as promise for Beckham as we may

1102
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:03,240
Speaker 7: think despite the matchup.

1103
00:52:03,320 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 2: I had a.

1104
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 6: Different receiver for our wide receiver, Pops, But I think

1105
00:52:06,320 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 6: I'll throw out Beckham out there for us to settle this.

1106
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 5: All right, here's one more quick thought on this to

1107
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 5: undermine my own perspective that this might not be a

1108
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 5: great spot. Patrick Peterson has been so bad this year

1109
00:52:18,320 --> 00:52:20,400
Speaker 5: that for the past two games they haven't even let

1110
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:23,239
Speaker 5: him shadow. They've just put him on one side of

1111
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,719
Speaker 5: the field and just say Okay, you stay at left cornerback,

1112
00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 5: so we know for sure or it seems likely if

1113
00:52:29,520 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 5: the usage continues that we're not going to see Peterson

1114
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 5: shadowing Beckham. So and Beckham tends to line up on

1115
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 5: the other side of the field, so maybe we'll actually

1116
00:52:39,920 --> 00:52:42,280
Speaker 5: have Beckham in the best possible.

1117
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 3: Situation he could be in for this spot.

1118
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:47,799
Speaker 6: Sean, go ahead, so let's see what you guys think

1119
00:52:47,800 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 6: of at this line. But in honor of Saquon Barkley

1120
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:51,960
Speaker 6: last night, I'm going to go sixty six and a

1121
00:52:52,000 --> 00:52:55,279
Speaker 6: half receiving yards. But you guys all laid out great

1122
00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:57,319
Speaker 6: points and it just shows sort of the uncertain team.

1123
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 6: That's so curious where you guys have right now.

1124
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 2: I have a little bit over.

1125
00:53:00,920 --> 00:53:04,719
Speaker 7: Actually, the Cardinals have been really bad just period against quarterbacks,

1126
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 7: so I do have him right at around seventy and

1127
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:12,279
Speaker 7: maybe I'll lower it, but right now, yeah, no.

1128
00:53:12,640 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: I have him a bit over.

1129
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 7: It's my wide receiver eighteen, So I'm not totally down

1130
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:16,760
Speaker 7: on him or anything.

1131
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: I just don't.

1132
00:53:17,360 --> 00:53:20,120
Speaker 7: I have Landry at seven, so I do have a

1133
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 7: good bit of separation between the two.

1134
00:53:24,160 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 5: Sean, did you adjust this line at all based on

1135
00:53:27,320 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 5: our conversation.

1136
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:30,759
Speaker 2: I mean I had it at sixty four.

1137
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,360
Speaker 6: You know, that's just rolling over the model to the

1138
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,440
Speaker 6: next week, not putting too much thought into it. But

1139
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 6: you know what you said about Patrick Peterson makes sense,

1140
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:41,840
Speaker 6: and I don't know, I just think sixty six and

1141
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:45,759
Speaker 6: a half. I would say Raybond is probably right. I

1142
00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 6: would say if they played this game a thousand times,

1143
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 6: his average would probably be low seventies, but his medium

1144
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:53,959
Speaker 6: would probably be in the mid sixties. If that makes Yeah, yeah,

1145
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 6: that wide range of outcomes.

1146
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have it at sixty seven and a half.

1147
00:53:59,080 --> 00:54:02,399
Speaker 5: We're really close. I guess I would take the over,

1148
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 5: although I don't want to right right, you.

1149
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 6: Would rather have like an over eighty and a half

1150
00:54:08,080 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 6: at like plus two hundred, right, yeah, something where yeah,

1151
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 6: like a higher payout for a ceiling game.

1152
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. It's it's a tough projection this week, for sure.

1153
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 7: How many passing yards do you guys have? Baker to

1154
00:54:20,280 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 7: seventy Yeah, I'm at two seventy seven, and that fields

1155
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:26,920
Speaker 7: high just given the lack of attempts. But Arizona just

1156
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,600
Speaker 7: they bump them up a little bit in terms of attempts,

1157
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 7: and then they bump up his.

1158
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 1: YPA a little bit just because they've been such a

1159
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:33,280
Speaker 1: good matchup.

1160
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 6: So yeah, like Freeman mentioned, you know Joku, he you know,

1161
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 6: he shook the rest off last week, but he should

1162
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 6: be closer to one hundred percent this week, so that

1163
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:45,399
Speaker 6: helps significantly. As you know the Cardinals this week, so yeah,

1164
00:54:45,480 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 6: that could help boost him more. But yeah, he's he's

1165
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:49,520
Speaker 6: a tricky projection this week as well.

1166
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:53,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I have two sixty five. I mean, pretty pretty close.

1167
00:54:53,440 --> 00:54:56,880
Speaker 5: We're all in the neighborhood there. Let's close it out

1168
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 5: with tight ends. The guys at the top of our rankings, Kelsey,

1169
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 5: Kittle and Waller Sean, who are you relatively high on?

1170
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 6: So I'm pretty high on Jacob Hollister this week at Carolina.

1171
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 6: He's only thirty eight hundred and he's had a disappointing

1172
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:18,560
Speaker 6: three game stretch. Not gonna sugarcoat that, but his underlying

1173
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:20,880
Speaker 6: usage has been pretty steady. He's he's running out on

1174
00:55:21,000 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 6: eighty two percent of Russell Wilson's dropbacks each of the

1175
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 6: last three games. He's seen a red zone target in

1176
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,400
Speaker 6: each the last five games, So he has that steady

1177
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 6: underlying usage you want to see out of a tight end,

1178
00:55:32,440 --> 00:55:35,920
Speaker 6: especially a cheap one and Russell and at Russell Wilson offense,

1179
00:55:35,960 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 6: you don't really need to see that many targets to

1180
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:40,520
Speaker 6: have value, and he's averaged six targets past three games.

1181
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 6: So I think he's a sneaky play this week where

1182
00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 6: he's he's due to have a big game and he

1183
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:47,319
Speaker 6: could be under owned at a cheaper price like thirty

1184
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 6: one hundred. I don't really like the tight ends like

1185
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:52,120
Speaker 6: this week. So alsoing's point to Hollister for me this

1186
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 6: week to Builo.

1187
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 5: And I should say, in between the time that I

1188
00:55:56,200 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 5: have recorded the podcast and when I made the outline, Sean,

1189
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 5: you have tusted our rankings, always adjusting our rankings.

1190
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 3: That's what makes him a professional.

1191
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:07,720
Speaker 5: But as a result, zach Ertz is actually our number

1192
00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:09,760
Speaker 5: three tight en, not Darren Waller.

1193
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:10,040
Speaker 7: Yeah.

1194
00:56:10,040 --> 00:56:12,800
Speaker 6: I did that because of the the Eagles wide receiver

1195
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 6: situation being so thin, and with Waller specifically, just a

1196
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:19,360
Speaker 6: real quick point. I've always mentioned he has less production

1197
00:56:19,440 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 6: in games where the Raiders are winning, so a positive

1198
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:24,799
Speaker 6: game script is actually negative for him. And this week

1199
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 6: they're six point favorites.

1200
00:56:26,080 --> 00:56:28,840
Speaker 5: So take of it what you want, all right, And

1201
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,359
Speaker 5: I'm with you there I'm relatively high on Ertz and

1202
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:36,080
Speaker 5: Goddard this week because of the Eagles wide receiver situation.

1203
00:56:37,000 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 5: Al Sean I'm assuming is going to be out in Agalore.

1204
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 5: We really don't know what's happening with him either. So yeah,

1205
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 5: it wouldn't be a surprise if Ertz and Goddard were

1206
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 5: like the top two receivers for the Eagles this week. Raymond,

1207
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:50,400
Speaker 5: who are you high on?

1208
00:56:51,680 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 1: I mean this? Yeah, it's an ugly tight Endsley.

1209
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 7: There's a couple of guys who you know, if they

1210
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 7: are not injured, I do like them as top ten guys,

1211
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 7: and that would be Jared Cook and Noah Fan. Now

1212
00:57:05,600 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 7: like both of them could miss this week, which would

1213
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:09,320
Speaker 7: kind of change up the ranking.

1214
00:57:09,400 --> 00:57:11,040
Speaker 1: And then Greg Olsen is my number eleven.

1215
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 7: So if those three guys are out, then howister jumps

1216
00:57:14,560 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 7: from from twelve to nine for me.

1217
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 1: So I like that call from Sean.

1218
00:57:19,360 --> 00:57:22,680
Speaker 7: But another guy I'm relatively high on is John new

1219
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 7: Smith and he hasn't been like the routes have been

1220
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 7: up and down since Dlaney Walker went on IR, but

1221
00:57:30,320 --> 00:57:34,600
Speaker 7: he's been targeted on fifteen percent of Ryan Tannehill's targets

1222
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:38,280
Speaker 7: since Tannehill took over as a starter, which against Houston

1223
00:57:39,040 --> 00:57:41,960
Speaker 7: could pay off in a major way because Houston is

1224
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:45,360
Speaker 7: just as I mentioned, their weakness is really over the

1225
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 7: middle of the field, and that's where you would expect

1226
00:57:48,640 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 7: John Y Smith to get his targets. So I have

1227
00:57:51,120 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 7: him up at number fourteen. Houston is there's short middle Dvoa,

1228
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 7: per Football Outsiders, is sixty five point six percent worse

1229
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:04,040
Speaker 7: than we average and the next worst team is thirty

1230
00:58:04,040 --> 00:58:07,560
Speaker 7: point nine percent. So they're just getting gouged over the middle,

1231
00:58:07,600 --> 00:58:09,760
Speaker 7: and that could you know, that could benefit a couple

1232
00:58:09,760 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 7: of guys like maybe Adam Humphreys if he's back, but

1233
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:14,520
Speaker 7: Dux Smith on this kind of bear tight end s

1234
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,000
Speaker 7: Lee and I think another guy kind of just a

1235
00:58:17,120 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 7: dart throw hail merry guy, especially if Seth the valve

1236
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 7: is out for the Jaguars a Nic O'Leary, it was

1237
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,640
Speaker 7: up to sixty percent route share last week. Now he's

1238
00:58:26,680 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 7: going against the open Raiders and DJ Chark is out,

1239
00:58:29,040 --> 00:58:32,200
Speaker 7: so somebody's got to catch the football, you know, for

1240
00:58:32,280 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 7: these Jacksonville Jaguars, and O'Leary could be a guy who

1241
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 7: could get you know, five six catches garbage time. Jags

1242
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 7: defense has been bad raiders, giving up the eighth most

1243
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 7: schedule adjusted yards per game to tight ends at sixty

1244
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:50,400
Speaker 7: point eight. So he's kind of a dart throw for

1245
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 7: me at thirty one hundred as well.

1246
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:55,000
Speaker 5: Actually, I'm kind of with you there on O'Leary, Like

1247
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:58,280
Speaker 5: he's getting his routes run. Someone has to catch the ball,

1248
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 5: presumably for the aguarre So uh, he's he's cheap. He

1249
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:06,120
Speaker 5: could be an option all of the injured tight ends. I'm,

1250
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 5: you know, relatively low on. We have no idea what's

1251
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 5: happening with Ingram Cook, andrews Olsen, Fant or Everett. Like

1252
00:59:12,640 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 5: it's it's a painful week out there for the tight

1253
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:17,720
Speaker 5: ends just because of so many injuries. And then one

1254
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 5: guy we know is probably going to play and I

1255
00:59:21,640 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 5: mentioned him earlier, David Unjoku, Like he's healthy, but he

1256
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:27,160
Speaker 5: didn't play all that much last week. I'm assuming he's

1257
00:59:27,200 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 5: going to get a pretty big boost this week, but

1258
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:32,920
Speaker 5: we don't know for sure. So there's just like a

1259
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 5: whole bunch of I don't know, just like tentative projections

1260
00:59:37,920 --> 00:59:40,520
Speaker 5: going on with some of these guys. And and so

1261
00:59:40,560 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 5: the rankings are going to change pretty drastically by by

1262
00:59:44,080 --> 00:59:46,760
Speaker 5: Thursday and then of course the weekend. But right now,

1263
00:59:46,960 --> 00:59:50,400
Speaker 5: like I know that Unjoku has massive upside against the Cardinals,

1264
00:59:50,760 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 5: but I'm going to be a little bit cautious with

1265
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 5: my my ranking on him, just because he does have

1266
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:59,760
Speaker 5: the possibility of like once again running like only ten routes.

1267
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 5: So yeah, that's that's where I am. Sean give us

1268
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:05,320
Speaker 5: the tight end prop.

1269
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:06,680
Speaker 2: Let's go with from Joku.

1270
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 6: I think that's a good prop, sticking with the Browns

1271
01:00:09,200 --> 01:00:12,760
Speaker 6: being really tough to project this week. Joke, who's facing

1272
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,280
Speaker 6: the Cardinals, which is the premiere tight end matchup. So

1273
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 6: I'm just gonna winger right now. I'm gonna set his

1274
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 6: line at thirty two and a half receiving yards. I mean,

1275
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 6: and I would not offer that up for action, just

1276
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 6: put that out there.

1277
01:00:28,600 --> 01:00:30,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, this is so hard.

1278
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 5: I have the I'm gonna go under, you know, I'm

1279
01:00:33,600 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 5: gonna go under just because I don't know why. That's

1280
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:40,800
Speaker 5: what I have in my projection, and like I think

1281
01:00:40,840 --> 01:00:43,680
Speaker 5: it is possible he doesn't play all that mini snaps again,

1282
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 5: you know, like they have other options. They have Ricky

1283
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:50,320
Speaker 5: Sills Junior, Ricky Sills, Joe, Yeah.

1284
01:00:50,240 --> 01:00:51,000
Speaker 3: They have that game.

1285
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, exactly. In the Revenge game, they have Ricky

1286
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 5: Sills Jones. I didn't even think about the Revenge game.

1287
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 2: Oh wow, okay, all right, I'm lowering the prop.

1288
01:00:58,800 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 3: Yeah you got me there.

1289
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 5: As Matrius Harris, you know, I think he has a

1290
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 5: shoulder issue, but he might be coming back for this game.

1291
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 5: Like they have other options where they don't need to

1292
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 5: rush and joke you back. So I'll take the under.

1293
01:01:10,840 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 7: I have him at thirty three point six and I

1294
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,480
Speaker 7: have him and that's so I'll just like just over

1295
01:01:16,520 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 7: by a yard, so I'll go over.

1296
01:01:18,520 --> 01:01:21,840
Speaker 1: I just essentially for his So he ran a route on.

1297
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:25,760
Speaker 7: A third of the dropbacks last week, and then in

1298
01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:28,800
Speaker 7: his only like healthy game, he ran around on route

1299
01:01:28,840 --> 01:01:31,120
Speaker 7: on seventy percent. So I just kind of took the

1300
01:01:31,160 --> 01:01:34,560
Speaker 7: average of those two in it's fifty two and so

1301
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 7: he that's where I have his routes run and so

1302
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 7: that projects him for about a thirteen percent target share.

1303
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:43,400
Speaker 7: So that like that's how I kind of arrived at

1304
01:01:43,400 --> 01:01:44,920
Speaker 7: that number. But I have him at three catches for

1305
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:48,840
Speaker 7: thirty three point six yards, So.

1306
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:51,440
Speaker 1: You're going over, yeah, over my yards. It's my tight

1307
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 1: end eighteen.

1308
01:01:52,000 --> 01:01:55,400
Speaker 7: But yeah, if like if if Ingram Andrews Cook Fan

1309
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:58,120
Speaker 7: are out, he would go from he would jump up

1310
01:01:58,320 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 7: four spots, so then he would be fourteen. And so

1311
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:03,120
Speaker 7: I mean, I think he's definitely in the streamer conversation

1312
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 7: like uh this week and another guy it's like Tyler

1313
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:10,720
Speaker 7: Higbye as well, if ever it is out to another guy, Yeah, massively.

1314
01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:11,680
Speaker 2: Would love Higby in that spot.

1315
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 3: That's the show that's gonna do it.

1316
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:16,000
Speaker 5: For this episode of the Action Network podcast, you can

1317
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 5: follow Sean christ and Me in the Action Network app

1318
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 5: at the Underscore Ods maker, Chris Raybaun and Matt f

1319
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,840
Speaker 5: the Oracle. Use the app to get real time odds

1320
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 5: and track your bets for free. Check out the rest

1321
01:02:26,160 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 5: of our episodes in live shows this week. Please subscribe

1322
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:31,080
Speaker 5: to and rate interview the show on Apple Podcasts Radio

1323
01:02:31,200 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 5: dot com or wherever you get your podcasts. See you

1324
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 5: again next episode.

1325
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:45,160
Speaker 4: We're finished talking